Prognostic Role of NECPAL CCOMS-ICO Tool on One-Year Mortality in a Hospitalized Older Population

Background: It is essential to establish both the appropriateness of palliative care (PC) and the prognosis in daily clinical practice to guide decision making in the management of older people with multiple advanced chronic diseases. Objectives: We assessed patients who were appropriate for PC using the NECPAL tool in a hospitalized older population and then we investigated its predictive validity on one-year mortality compared with the multidimensional prognostic index (MPI), a validated geriatric prognostic tool. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting/Subjects: We enrolled 103 older adults hospitalized for acute medical and surgical conditions in a geriatric hospital in Italy. Measurements: The variables of interest were obtained at baseline through interviews of the ward medical staff and by consulting the computerized medical records. Long-term mortality (one-year) was assessed through the analysis of data acquired from hospital or territorial databases or through telephone contact with caregivers. Results: Mean age was 86.8 ± 7.2 years, with a female prevalence of 54.4%. Prevalence of NECPAL+ patients was 65.1%. MPI low risk: 30.1%; moderate risk: 41.7%; severe risk: 28.2%. Patients deceased during follow-up were 54.4%. NECPAL+ patients were more likely to die, even after adjusting for age, sex, and MPI score (hazard ratio [HR] 2.7, p = 0.020). All the NECPAL categories were associated with one-year mortality. MPI showed a better predictive power than NECPAL (area under the curve [AUC] 0.85 vs. 0.75, p = 0.030). After the exclusion of "Comorbidity: ≥2 concurrent diseases" item from NECPAL, its AUC increased to 0.78 with no statistically significant differences from MPI (p = 0.122). Conclusions: NECPAL is useful to identify the appropriateness of PC in hospitalized older adults, also allowing to predict long-term mortality with a performance similar to that of a validated geriatric prognostic tool.

Validation of a Brief Form of the Self-Administered Multidimensional Prognostic Index: The SELFY-BRIEF-MPI Project

In clinical practice, self-administered and brief tools to promptly identify older people at risk of frailty are required. The Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI), derived from the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) seems reliable enough to serve this purpose, but despite the several versions developed over the past 15 years, it lacks a self-administered and brief version. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the agreement between an abbreviated form of the SELFY-MPI (i.e., SELFY-BRIEF-MPI) and the standard version of the MPI. Four Italian hospitals consecutively enrolled outpatients and inpatients >65 years. The sample included 105 participants (mean age = 78.8 years, 53.3% females). Overall, the two versions showed non-statistically significant differences (Standard-MPI 0.42 ± 0.19 vs.. SELFY-BRIEF-MPI 0.41 ± 0.18; p = 0.104) and a very strong correlation (R = 0.86, p < 0.001). The Bland-Altman Plot revealed that only 5/105 measurements (4.76%) were outside the limits of agreement. The accuracy of the SELFY-BRIEF-MPI in identifying frail people (defined as a Standard-MPI > 0.66) was optimal (area under the curve, AUC = 0.90, p < 0.001). To predict multidimensional frailty, a SELFY-BRIEF-MPI score of 0.60 exhibited the greatest sensitivity/specificity ratio. In conclusion, the SELFY-BRIEF-MPI reported a good agreement with the standard version of the MPI, indicating its application in the screening of multidimensional frailty among older people.

Older People Hospitalized for COVID-19: Prognostic Role of Multidimensional Prognostic Index and Other Prognostic Scores

During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, frailty and patients’ poor outcomes seem to be closely related. However, there is no clear indication of the significance of this connection and the most adequate risk index in clinical practice. In this study, we compared a short version of MPI (multidimensional prognostic index) and other two prognostic scores for COVID-19 as potential predictors of poor patient outcomes. The patients were consecutively enrolled in the hospital of Palermo for COVID-19. The accuracy of Brief-MPI, 4C score and COVID-GRAM score in points was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) with 95% CI, taking mortality or sub-ICU admission as outcome. The study included 112 participants (mean age 77.6, 55.4% males). During a mean of 16 days of hospitalization, Brief-MPI significantly increased by 0.03 ± 0.14 (p = 0.04), whilst COVID-GRAM did not. Brief-MPI, 4C score and COVID-GRAM scores had good accuracy in predicting negative outcomes (AUC > 0.70 for all three scores). Brief-MPI was significantly associated with an increased mortality/ICU admission risk, indicating the importance of multidimensional impairment in clinical decision-making with an accuracy similar to other prognostic scores commonly used in COVID-19 study, providing information regarding domains for which interventions can be proposed.

The role of prognostic stratification on prescription of anticoagulants in older patients with atrial fibrillation: a multicenter, observational, prospective European study (EUROSAF)

BACKGROUND

Literature suggests that different risks of mortality could influence physicians in prescribing or not anticoagulants in older patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) can be considered a tool for the detection of multidimensional frailty. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to evaluate whether prescription patterns of oral anticoagulants exist, based on MPI values.

METHODS

Older hospitalised patients (age ≥ 65 years) with non-valvular AF were included across 24 European centres. MPI was calculated using validated and standardised tools derived from a comprehensive geriatric assessment. Other functional and clinical information were collected to calculate indexes specific for haemorrhagic and thromboembolic risk in AF.

RESULTS

Altogether, 2,012 participants affected by AF (mean age was 83.2 ± 7.5, range: 65-104 years), with a higher presence of women (57.0%), were included. Overall, 440 took vitamin K antagonists VKAs (22.0%), 667 (33.4%) direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs), whilst 44.6% did not take any anticoagulant treatment. Prescription of anticoagulants was associated with MPI values, with people taking anticoagulants having lower mean MPI values. Anticoagulant therapy was not used in 53.1% of the group with the highest risk of mortality, compared with 32.3% of those in the group with the lowest mortality risk. People with higher scores in MPI were less frequently treated with anticoagulant therapy, after adjusting for several potential confounders.

CONCLUSIONS

The EURopean study of Older Subjects with Atrial Fibrillation (EUROSAF) suggested that almost half of the older persons with AF do not receive anticoagulants and that MPI is an important determinant in prescribing or not anticoagulants. Trial Registration: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02973984KEY POINTSAtrial fibrillation is a common condition in older people. The data regarding the use of anticoagulants is mainly derived from randomised controlled trials that do not include a sufficient number of older frail people.Our study suggests that a consistent part of older people affected by atrial fibrillation was not treated with anticoagulants, in particular, older frail patients; however, it is unclear if this choice is supported or not by evidence.The prognostic evaluation through the multidimensional prognostic index could be useful information for the choice in the prescription of anticoagulants in older people affected by atrial fibrillation.

Frailty trajectories in community-dwelling older adults during COVID-19 pandemic: The PRESTIGE study

BACKGROUND

Frailty has been recognized as potential surrogate of biological age and relevant risk factor for COVID-19 severity. Thus, it is important to explore the frailty trajectories during COVID-19 pandemic and understand how COVID-19 directly and indirectly impacts on frailty condition.

METHODS

We enrolled 217 community-dwelling older adults with available information on frailty condition as assessed by multidimensional frailty model both at baseline and at one-year follow-up using Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) tools. Pre-frail/frail subjects were identified at baseline as those with MPI score >0.33 (MPI grades 2-3). Frailty worsening was defined by MPI difference between 12 months follow-up and baseline ≥0.1. Multivariable logistic regression was modelled to identify predictors of worsening of frailty condition.

RESULTS

Frailer subjects at baseline (MPI grades 2-3 = 48.4%) were older, more frequently female and had higher rates of hospitalization and Sars-CoV-2 infection compared to robust ones (MPI grade 1). Having MPI grades 2-3 at baseline was associated with higher risk of further worsening of frailty condition (adjusted odd ratio (aOR): 13.60, 95% confidence interval (CI): 4.01-46.09), independently by age, gender and Sars-CoV-2 infection. Specifically, frail subjects without COVID-19 (aOR: 14.84, 95% CI: 4.26-51.74) as well as those with COVID-19 (aOR: 12.77, 95% CI: 2.66-61.40, p = 0.001) had significantly higher risk of worsening of frailty condition.

CONCLUSIONS

Effects of COVID-19 pandemic among community-dwelling frailer individuals are far beyond the mere infection and disease, determining a significant deterioration of frailty status both in infected and non-infected subjects.

Impact of the chronic disease self-management program (CDSMP) on self-perceived frailty condition: the EU-EFFICHRONIC project

Introduction:

The Chronic Disease Self-Management Program (CDSMP) improves self-efficacy and health outcomes in people with chronic diseases. In the context of the EFFICHRONIC project, we evaluated the efficacy of CDSMP in relieving frailty, as assessed by the self-administered version of Multidimensional Prognostic Index (SELFY-MPI), identifying also potential predictors of better response over 6-month follow-up.

Methods:

The SELFY-MPI explores mobility, basal and instrumental activities of daily living (Barthel mobility, ADL, IADL), cognition (Test Your Memory-TYM Test), nutrition (Mini Nutritional Assessment-Short Form-MNA-SF), comorbidities, medications, and socio-economic conditions (social-familiar evaluation scale-SFES). Participants were stratified in three groups according to the 6-month change of SELFY-MPI: those who improved after CDSMP (Δ SELFY-MPI < 0), those who remained unchanged (Δ SELFY-MPI = 0), and those who worsened (Δ SELFY-MPI > 0). Multivariable logistic regression was modeled to identify predictors of SELFY-MPI improvement.

Results:

Among 270 participants (mean age = 61.45 years, range = 26–93 years; females = 78.1%) a benefit from CDSMP intervention, in terms of decrease in the SELFY-MPI score, was observed in 32.6% of subjects. SELFY-MPI improvement was found in participants with higher number of comorbidities (1–2 chronic diseases: adjusted odd ratio (aOR)=2.38, 95% confidence interval (CI) =1.01, 5.58; ⩾ 3 chronic diseases: aOR = 3.34, 95% CI = 1.25, 8.90 vs no chronic disease), poorer cognitive performance (TYM ⩽ 42: aOR = 2.41, 95% CI = 1.12, 5.19 vs TYM > 42) or higher risk of malnutrition (MNA-SF ⩽ 11: aOR = 6.11, 95% CI = 3.15, 11.83 vs MNA-SF > 11).

Conclusion:

These findings suggest that the CDSMP intervention contributes to decreasing the self-perceived severity of frailty (SELFY-MPI score) in more vulnerable participants with several chronic diseases and lower cognitive performance and nutritional status.

Multidimensional Frailty Predicts Mortality Better than Physical Frailty in Community-Dwelling Older People: A Five-Year Longitudinal Cohort Study

Frailty is a common syndrome in older people that carries an increased risk of mortality. Two main models describe frailty, either as a loss of physical functions or as an accumulation of multiple deficits. The aim of our study was to compare the physical frailty index developed in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) with a multidimensional frailty tool, the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI), in predicting death in community-dwelling older subjects. Four hundred and seven community-dwelling older subjects were enrolled. Each subject underwent a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) with calculation of the MPI and CHS index. Mortality was recorded over the following 5 years. In the overall sample (mean age of 77.9 ± 4.5 years; 51.6% female), 53 subjects (13%) died during the 5-year follow-up period. Both the MPI and CHS index were able to predict mortality; however, the MPI was significantly more accurate than the CHS index in predicting mortality (C-index = 0.69 and 0.59, respectively; p < 0.001), with a statistically significant difference of 10%. In conclusion, multidimensional frailty, assessed by the MPI, predicts five-year mortality in community-dwelling older people better than physical frailty, as assessed by the CHS index. These findings suggest the usefulness of assessing frailty by means of CGA-based tools to predict relevant health-negative outcomes in older people.

The Multidimensional Prognostic Index as a Measure of Frailty in Elderly Patients with Head and Neck Cancer

Purpose

The multidimensional prognostic index (MPI) is a prognostic model derived from the comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) which can predict 1-year mortality risk in elderly individuals. We hypothesized that the MPI also reflects the degree of frailty and thus will correlate with established measures of frailty. Therefore, the aim of this study is to explore whether the MPI-score is a measure of frailty in older head and neck cancer patients and is associated with several physical functioning measurements.

Patients and Methods

From November 2019 to July 2020, a prospective cohort study enrolled patients with head and neck cancer aged ≥70 years, and patients <70 years with an abnormal G8 score. The MPI-score ranged from 0 to 1 and was categorized in MPI-stage 1 (≤0.33, non-frail); MPI-stage 2 (0.34-0.66, mildly frail), and MPI-stage 3 (≥0.67, severe frail). Pearson's correlation coefficient and multivariable linear regression were used to study the association between MPI-score and the physical functioning measurements handgrip strength, gait speed, and the timed up and go test (TUGT).

Results

A total of 163 patients were included. One hundred four (63.8%) patients were categorized as non-frail according MPI-stage 1, and 59 (36.2%) patients as mildly or severe frail (n=55 MPI-stage 2; n=4 MPI-stage 3, respectively). A higher MPI-score was significantly associated with lower hand grip strength (B -0.49 [95% CI -0.71; -0.28] p<0.001), lower gait speed (B -0.41 [95% CI -0.55; -0.25] p<0.001), and a slower TUGT (B 0.53 [95% CI 0.66; 0.85] p<0.001).

Conclusion

Almost one-third of the included patients with head and neck cancer was mild or severe frail. A higher MPI-score, indicating higher degree of frailty, was associated with worse physical performance by lower handgrip strength, gait speed, and a slower TUGT. Thus, the MPI reflects the degree of frailty.

Multidimensional Prognostic Index and Outcomes in Older Patients Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation: Survival of the Fittest

Selecting patients with a high chance of endured benefit from transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is becoming relevant with changing indications and increasing number of TAVI being performed. The aim of our study was to investigate the association of the multidimensional prognostic index (MPI) based on a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) on survival. The TAVI Care & Cure program is a prospective, observational registry of patients referred for TAVI at the Erasmus MC University Medical Center. Consecutive patients who underwent a complete CGA and TAVI were included. CGA components were used to calculate the MPI score. The impact of the MPI score on survival was evaluated using Cox regression. Furthermore, 376 patients were included, 143 (38.0%) patients belonged to the MPI-1 group and 233 (61.9%) patients to the MPI-2–3 group. After 3 years, 14.9% of the patients in the MPI-1 group and 30.5% of the patients in the MPI-2–3 group died (p = 0.001). Patients in MPI-1 had increased chances of overall survival in comparison with patients in MPI group 2–3 Hazard Ratio (HR) 0.57, (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.33–0.98)). In this study we found that the MPI tool could be useful to assess frailty and to predict which patient will have a higher chance of enduring benefit from a TAVI procedure.

Multidimensional Prognostic Index and Mortality in Intermediate Care Facilities: A Retrospective Study

Multidimensional prognostic index (MPI) is a frailty assessment tool used for stratifying prognosis in older hospitalized people, but data regarding older people admitted to intermediate care facilities (ICFs) are missing. The aim of this study is to evaluate whether MPI can predict mortality in older patients admitted to the ICFs. MPI was calculated using different domains explored by a standard comprehensive geriatric assessment and categorized into tertiles (MPI-1 ≤ 0.20, MPI-2 0.20-0.34, MPI-3 > 0.34). A Cox's regression analysis, taking mortality as the outcome, was used, reporting the results as hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). In total, 653 older patients were enrolled (mean age: 82 years, 59.1% females). Patients in MPI-2 (HR = 3.66; 95%CI: 2.45-5.47) and MPI-3 (HR = 6.22; 95%CI: 4.22-9.16) experienced a higher risk of mortality, compared to MPI-1. The accuracy of MPI in predicting mortality was good (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.74, 95%CI: 0.70-0.78). In conclusion, our study showed that prognostic stratification, as assessed by the MPI, was associated with a significantly different risk of mortality in older patients admitted to the ICFs, indicating the necessity of using a CGA-based tool for better managing older people in this setting as well.

Association between Multidimensional Prognostic Index and Hospitalization and Mortality among Older Adults with Chronic Kidney Disease on Conservative or on Replacement Therapy

The prevalence of renal disease is constantly increasing in older adults and a prognostic evaluation by a valid tool may play a key role in treatment management. We aimed to assess the association(s) between the multidimensional prognostic index (MPI) and both the hospitalization and mortality among older adults with renal disease. Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) (stage 3-5 KDOQI) and on dialysis were considered. Clinical parameters were registered at baseline and after 2 years. In all the patients, the MPI was calculated and divided into grade 0 (low risk), 1 (moderate risk), and 2 (severe risk). Hospitalizations and mortality were recorded during the follow-up and analyzed according to MPI grade. A total of 173 patients, with a median age of 76 years, on conservative (n = 105) and replacement therapy (32 patients on hemodialysis, 36 patients on peritoneal dialysis) were enrolled. Of them, 60 patients were in MPI grade 0, 102 in grade 1, and 11 in grade 2. The median duration of all the hospitalizations was 6 days and the number of deaths was 33. MPI significantly correlated with days of hospitalization (r = 0.801, p < 0.00001) and number of hospitalizations per year (r = 0.808, p < 0.00001), which was higher in MPI grade 2 compared to grade 1 (p < 0.001) and to grade 0 (p < 0.001). We found a significant association between MPI grades and mortality (p < 0.001). Our results indicate that MPI was associated with outcomes in patients with renal disease, suggesting that a multidimensional evaluation should be implemented in this clinical setting.

Relationship between multidimensional prognostic index and incident depressive symptoms in older people: Findings from the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing

OBJECTIVES

The multidimensional prognostic index (MPI) is a useful prognostic tool for evaluating adverse health outcomes in older individuals. However, the association between MPI and depressive symptoms has never been explored, despite depression being a common condition in older people. We therefore aimed to evaluate whether MPI may predict incident depressive symptoms.

METHODS

Longitudinal, cohort study, with 2 years of follow-up (W1: October 2009-February 2011; W2: April 2012-January 2013), including people aged ≥65 years without depressive symptoms at baseline. A comprehensive geriatric assessment including information on functional, nutritional, cognitive status, mobility, comorbidities, medications, and cohabitation status was used to calculate the MPI dividing the participants into low, moderate, or severe risk. Those who scored ≥16/60 with the Center of Epidemiology Studies Depression (CES-D) tool were considered to have depressive symptoms. Multivariable logistic regression models were built to explore the association between MPI and incident depressive symptoms.

RESULTS

The sample consisted of 1854 participants (mean age: 72.8 ± SD 5.1 years; females: 52.1%). The prevalence of incident depressive symptoms by MPI tertiles at baseline were: low 2.5%, moderate 3.9%, and severe 6.7%. In multivariable analyses, baseline MPI values were significantly associated with incident depressive symptoms (increase in 0.1 points in MPI: odds ratio, OR = 1.47; 95% confidence intervals, CI: 1.17-1.85; MPI tertile severe vs low: OR = 2.96; 95%CI: 1.50-5.85).

CONCLUSION

Baseline MPI values were associated with incident depressive symptoms indicating that multidimensional assessment of older people may lead to early identification of individuals at increased risk of depression onset.

[Interest of the multidimensional prognostic index (MPI) as an assessment tool in hospitalized patients in geriatrics]

The collection of prognostic information in the elderly is essential. The main objective was to perform a replication of the multidimensional prognostic index (MPI), to predict mortality at one-year in patients hospitalized in geriatric wards. Secondary objectives were to evaluate if the MPI was predictive of the length of hospital stay, and of rehospitalization in the following year.

METHODS

Prospective study conducted from February 2015 to November 2016 at the University Hospital of Poitiers (Geriatrics department). A comprehensive geriatric assessment (number of treatment, lifestyle, autonomy, comorbidities, risk of pressure sore, nutritional and cognitive status) was used to calculate the MPI score and to categorize patients into three groups: low (MPI-1), moderate (MPI-2) and high (MPI-3) risk of mortality.

RESULTS

153 patients were included, with mean age 85.9 ± 5.4 years. Twenty-one patients (13.7%) belonged to MPI-1 group, 98 (64.1%) to MPI-2 group, and 34 (22.2%) to MPI-3 group. The number of deaths at one-year according to the MPI group was different (p < 0.01). The one-year prognostic performance of MPI was good (AUC at 0.76). MPI was also predictive of hospital length stay (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

MPI appears to be a relevant prognostic tool in the stratification of one-year mortality risk in elderly patients hospitalized in geriatrics.

Agreement of a Short Form of the Self-Administered Multidimensional Prognostic Index (SELFY-MPI-SF): A Useful Tool for the Self-Assessment of Frailty in Community-Dwelling Older People

Background

The Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) is a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA)-based tool that has shown excellent accuracy in predicting negative health outcomes in older people. Recently, the self-administered version of MPI (SELFY-MPI) has been validated in a community-dwelling sample, revealing excellent agreement with the original MPI. In the SELFY-MPI, Gijon’s social-familial evaluation scale (SFES) was used to assess socio-relational and economic aspects. Completion of the SELFY-MPI, however, requires a significant amount of time in people aged over 60 years, particularly to fill in the SFES scale. The aim of this study was to validate, in a sample of community-dwelling older people, a short-form version of the SELFY-MPI (SELFY-MPI-SF), in which the SFES scale was replaced by the “co-habitation status” domain, as in the original version of the MPI.

Methods

All participants included in the study completed both versions of the self-administered MPI, which share the following seven domains: 1) basic and 2) instrumental activities of daily living, 3) mobility, 4) cognition, 5) nutrition, 6) comorbidity, and 7) number of medications. Moreover, in the SELFY-MPI-SF, the 8th domain “co-habitation status” (ie living alone, with family or in a residential facility) replaced the SFES scale. The Bland–Altman methodology was applied in order to measure the agreement between the two instruments. Finally, the time to complete the SFES scale and the question on co-habitation was measured.

Results

The final study sample was composed of 129 participants (mean age=76.8 years, range=65–93 years, 64.3% women) were enrolled. The mean SELFY-MPI and SELFY-MPI-SF values were 0.221±0.196 and 0.246± 0.188, respectively. The mean difference was clinically irrelevant (−0.025±0.058). None of the 129 observations showed values outside the established 5% limits of agreement. The agreement between SELFY-MPI and SELFY-MPI-SF was excellent (k=0.762; rho=0.924, p<0.0001 for both). Stratified analyses of agreement among subgroups of participants of different ages did not show any significant differences between the two versions. Completion of the SFES required about 7 mins, on average, while the question on habitation status required about 10 s.

Conclusion

The SELFY-MPI-SF showed strong agreement and precision when compared with the standard SELFY-MPI in people aged 65 and older and can therefore be successfully used as a quicker self-administered frailty instrument in community-dwelling older people.

Development and Validation of a Self-Administered Multidimensional Prognostic Index to Predict Negative Health Outcomes in Community-Dwelling Persons

The multidimensional prognostic index (MPI) is a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA)-based tool that accurately predicts negative health outcomes in older subjects with different diseases and settings. To calculate the MPI several validated tools are assessed by health care professionals according to the CGA, whereas self-reported information by the patients is not available, but it could be of importance for the early identification of frailty. We aimed to develop and validate a self-administered MPI (SELFY-MPI) in community-dwelling subjects. For this reason, we enrolled 167 subjects (mean age = 67.3, range = 20–88 years, 51% = men). All subjects underwent a CGA-based assessment to calculate the MPI and the SELFY-MPI. The SELFY-MPI included the assessment of (1) basic and instrumental activities of daily living, (2) mobility, (3) memory, (4) nutrition, (5) comorbidity, (6) number of medications, and (7) socioeconomic situation. The Bland–Altman methodology was used to measure the agreement between MPI and SELFY-MPI. The mean MPI and SELFY-MPI values were 0.147 and 0.145, respectively. The mean difference was +0.002 ± standard deviation of 0.07. Lower and upper 95% limits of agreement were −0.135 and +0.139, respectively, with only 5 of 167 (3%) of observations outside the limits. Stratified analysis by age provided similar results for younger (≤65 years old, n = 45) and older subjects (>65 years, n = 122). The analysis of variances in subjects subdivided according to different year decades showed no differences of agreement according to age. In conclusion, the SELFY-MPI can be used as a prognostic tool in subjects of different ages.

Warfarin Treatment and All-Cause Mortality in Community-Dwelling Older Adults with Atrial Fibrillation: A Retrospective Observational Study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the relationship between warfarin treatment and different strata of all-cause mortality risk assessed using the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) based on information collected using the Standardized Multidimensional Assessment Schedule for Adults and Aged Persons (SVaMA) in community-dwelling older adults with atrial fibrillation (AF).

DESIGN

Retrospective observational study.

SETTING

Older community-dwelling adults who underwent a SVaMA evaluation establishing accessibility to homecare services and nursing home admission from 2005 to 2013 in the Padova Health District, Italy.

PARTICIPANTS

Community-dwelling individuals with AF aged 65 and older (N = 1,827).

MEASUREMENTS

Participants were classified as being at mild (MPI-SVaMA-1), moderate (MPI-SVaMA-2), or severe (MPI-SVaMA-3) risk of mortality using the MPI-SVaMA, a validated prognostic tool based on age, sex, comorbidity, cognitive status, mobility and functional disability, pressure sore risk, and social support. The association between warfarin treatment and mortality was tested using multivariate- and propensity score-adjusted Cox regression models, controlling for age, sex, all SVaMA domains, concomitant diseases, and drug treatments.

RESULTS

Higher MPI-SVaMA scores were associated with lower rates of warfarin treatment and higher 3-year mortality. After adjustment for propensity score quintiles, warfarin treatment was significantly associated with lower 2-year mortality in individuals with MPI-SVaMA-1 (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.64, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.50-0.82), MPI-SVaMA-2 (HR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.55-0.85), and MPI-SVaMA-3 (HR = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.44-0.67). Heterogeneity analyses confirmed that the effect of warfarin treatment was not different between MPI-SVaMA groups (P for heterogeneity = .48).

CONCLUSION

Community-dwelling older adults with AF benefitted from anticoagulation in terms of lower all-cause mortality over a mean follow-up of 2 years, regardless of poor health and functional condition. Although this benefit can be ascribed to the treatment, it may also reflect better overall care.

Body mass index, airflow obstruction and dyspnea and body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnea scores, age and pack years-predictive properties of new multidimensional prognostic indices of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in primary care

BACKGROUND

The assessment of the severity of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) should involve a multidimensional approach that is now clearly shown to be better than using spirometric impairment alone. The aim of this study is to validate and compare novel tools without an exercise test and to extend prognostic value to patients with less severe impairment of Forced expiratory volume 1 s.

METHODS

A prospective, observational, primary care cohort study identified 458 eligible patients recruited from the primary care clinics in the northeast of England in 1999-2002. A new prognostic indicator - body mass index, airflow obstruction and dyspnea (BOD) together with the conventional prognostic indices age, dyspnea and airflow obstruction (ADO), global initiative for chronic obstructive lung disease (GOLD) and new GOLD matrix were studied. We also sought to improve prognostication of BOD by adding age (A) and smoking history as pack years (S) to validate BODS (BOD with smoking history) and BODAS (BOD with smoking history and age) as prognostic tools and the predictive power of each was analyzed.

RESULTS

The survival of the 458 patients was assessed after a median of 10 years when the mortality was found to be 33.6%. The novel indices BOD, BODS, and BODAS were significantly predictive for all-cause mortality in our cohort. Furthermore with ROC analysis the C statistics for BOD, BODS, and BODAS were 0.62, 0.66, and 0.72, respectively (P < 0.001 for each), whereas ADO and GOLD stages had a C statistic of 0.70 (P < 0.001) and 0.56 (P < 0.02), respectively. GOLD Matrix was not significant in this cohort.

CONCLUSION

BOD, BODS, and BODAS scores are validated predictors of all-cause mortality in a primary care cohort with COPD.

A pilot randomized controlled trial evaluating an integrated treatment of rivastigmine transdermal patch and cognitive stimulation in patients with Alzheimer's disease

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate in a pilot single-blind randomized controlled clinical trial the efficacy of an integrated treatment with rivastigmine transdermal patch (RTP) and cognitive stimulation (CS) in Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients at 6-month follow-up.

METHODS

We enrolled 90 patients with an age ≥65 years admitted to the outpatient Alzheimer's Evaluation Unit with diagnosis of AD. Patients were randomized to enter in the Group-1 (RTP + CS) or in the Group-2 (RTP). All patients at baseline and after 6 months were evaluated with the following tools: Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE), Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR), Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HAM-D), Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15), Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI), Neuropsychiatric Inventory-Distress (NPI-D), and a standardized Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment, including also activities of daily living (ADL), instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), and the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA). Mortality risk was assessed using the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI).

RESULTS

At baseline no significant difference was shown between the two groups. After 6 months of follow-up, there were significant differences between Group-1 and Group-2 in: MMSE: +6.39% vs. +2.69%, CDR: +6.92% vs. +1.54%, HDRS-D = -60.7% vs. -45.8%, GDS: -60.9% vs. -7.3%, NPI: -55.2% vs. -32.7%%, NPI-D: -55.1% vs. -18.6%, ADL: +13.88% vs. +5.95%, IADL: +67.59% vs. +18.28%, MNA: +12.02% vs. +5.91%, and MPI: -29.03% vs. -12.90%.

CONCLUSION

The integrated treatment of RTP with CS in AD patients for 6 months improved significantly cognition, depressive and neuropsychiatric symptoms, functional status, and mortality risk in comparison with a group of AD patients receiving only RTP.

Perspective: the challenge of clinical decision-making for drug treatment in older people. The role of multidimensional assessment and prognosis

A complex decision path with a careful evaluation of the risk-benefit ratio is mandatory for drug treatment in advanced age. Enrollment biases in randomized clinical trials (RCTs) cause an under-representation of older individuals. In high-risk frail older subjects, the lack of RCTs makes clinical decision-making particularly difficult. Frail individuals are markedly susceptible to adverse drug reactions, and frailty may result in reduced treatment efficacy. Life expectancy should be included in clinical decision-making paths to better assess the benefits and risks of different drug treatments in advanced age. We performed a scoping review of principal hospital- and community-based prognostic indices in older age. Mortality prognostic tools could help clinical decision-making in diagnostics and therapeutics, tailoring appropriate intervention for older patients. The effectiveness of drug treatments may be significantly different in older patients with different risk of mortality. Clinicians need to consider the prognostic information obtained through well-validated, accurate, and calibrated predictive tools to identify those patients who may benefit from drug treatments given with the aim of increasing survival.

Immune senescence and cancer in elderly patients: results from an exploratory study

BACKGROUND

The challenge of immune senescence has never been addressed in elderly cancer patients. This study compares the thymic output and peripheral blood telomere length in ≥70year old cancer patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Fifty-two elderly cancer patients and 39 age-matched controls without personal history of cancer were enrolled. All patients underwent a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA), from which a multidimensional prognostic index (MPI) score was calculated. Peripheral blood samples were studied for naïve and recent thymic emigrant (RTE) CD4(+) and CD8(+) cells by flow cytometry. T-cell receptor rearrangement excision circle (TREC) levels, telomere length and telomerase activity in peripheral blood cells were quantified by real-time PCR.

RESULTS

The percentages of CD8(+) naïve and CD8(+) RTE cells and TREC levels were significantly lower in cancer patients than in controls (p=0.003, p=0.004, p=0.031, respectively). Telomere lengths in peripheral blood cells were significantly shorter in cancer patients than in controls (p=0.046) and did not correlate with age in patients, whereas it did in controls (r=-0.354, p=0.031). Short telomere (≤median)/low TREC (≤median) profile was associated with higher risk of cancer (OR=3.68 [95% CI 1.22-11.11]; p=0.021). Neither unfitness on CGA nor MPI score were significantly related to thymic output or telomere length in either group.

CONCLUSIONS

Immune senescence is significantly worse in elderly cancer patients than in age-matched controls. The low thymic output and the shorter telomeres in peripheral blood cells of cancer patients may reflect a pre-existing condition which facilitates the onset of malignancies in elderly people.

Nutritional and global indexes of progression in dementia: a 12-month prospective study

BACKGROUND

To assess the influence of body mass index (BMI) on the progression of dementia.

METHODS

Sixty elderly outpatients with untreated dementia followed for 12 months. All patients underwent clinical, cognitive, functional, and nutritional assessment at the baseline and after 12 months. Patients were divided into 2 groups by baseline BMI (< or ≥25 kg/m(2)).

RESULTS

Participants with a baseline BMI ≥25 kg/m(2) had significantly higher Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) scores (21 ± 5.1 vs 15.9 ± 5.5; P < .001), while clinical dementia rating (CDR) and multidimensional prognostic index (MPI) scores were similar in the 2 groups. After 12 months, the MMSE score decreased significantly in both groups compared to the baseline, while the CDR and MPI scores increased significantly for patients with a baseline BMI <25 kg/m(2).

CONCLUSION

A BMI cutoff of 25 kg/m(2) could be useful for identifying frail patients with dementia who will experience a more rapid global impairment, which could be assessed adequately using multidimensional evaluation tools.

Usefulness of the comprehensive geriatric assessment in older patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a two-year follow-up study

BACKGROUND

The potential usefulness of standardized comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) in evaluating treatment and follow-up of older patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding is unknown.

AIM

To evaluate the usefulness of the CGA as a 2-year mortality multidimensional prognostic index (MPI) in older patients hospitalized for upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patients aged > or =65 years consecutively hospitalized for acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding were included. Diagnosis of bleeding was based on clinical and endoscopic features. All patients underwent a CGA that included six standardized scales, i.e., Activities of Daily Living (ADL), Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL), Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire (SPMSQ), Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA), Exton-Smith Score (ESS) and Comorbity Index Rating Scale (CIRS), as well as information on medication history and cohabitation, for a total of 63 items. A MPI was calculated from the integrated total scores and expressed as MPI 1 = low risk, MPI 2 = moderate risk, and MPI 3 = severe risk. The predictive value of the MPI for mortality over a 24-month follow-up was calculated.

RESULTS

36 elderly patients (M 16/F 20, mean age 82.8 +/- 7.9 years, range 70-101 years) were included in the study. A significant difference in mean age was observed between males and females (M 80.1 +/- 4.8 vs. F 84.9 +/- 9.3 years; p < 0.05). The causes of upper gastrointestinal bleeding were duodenal ulcer in 38.8%, gastric ulcer in 22.2%, and erosive gastritis in 16.6% of the patients, while 16.6% had gastrointestinal bleeding from unknown origin. The overall 2-year mortality rate was 30.5%. 18 patients (50%) were classified as having a low-risk MPI (mean value 0.18 +/- 0.09), 12 (33.3%) as having a moderate-risk MPI (mean value 0.48 +/- 0.08) and 6 (16.6%) as having a severe-risk MPI (mean value 0.83 +/- 0.06). Higher MPI grades were significantly associated with higher mortality (grade 1 = 12.5%, grade 2 = 41.6%, grade 3 = 83.3%; p = 0.001). Adjusting for age and sex, the prognostic efficacy of MPI for mortality was confirmed and highly significant (odds ratio 10.47, 95% CI 2.04-53.6).

CONCLUSION

CGA is a useful tool for calculating a MPI that significantly predicts the risk of 2-year mortality in older patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.