Maize producers' vulnerability to climate change: Evidence from Makhuduthamaga Local Municipality, South Africa

Climate change is predicted to impact agricultural production and affect food security in poor communities of developing countries due to the likely negative impacts on rainfall characteristics. South Africa is one of the largest producers of maize crops in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. The majority of crop production is rainfed with precipitation received during the summer growing season. This study evaluated the impact of climate change on maize yields using trend and multiple regression analysis in northern South Africa. Exposure and vulnerability of maize farmers to the impacts of climate change were also evaluated. Rainfall characteristics showed variability of 20.35% with rain days standard deviation of 10.25 days and coefficient of variation of 18.57%. The results revealed a weak relationship between annual rainfall and rainy days, and annual rainfall and maize yields, both showed an r² and p-values of less than 0.5 and 0.005, respectively. The study found that variations in rainfall did not significantly influence variation in maize yields. Despite a clear fluctuation in yields, the results demonstrate a rising trend that can be attributed to agricultural practices such as the use of fertilisers and planting drought resistant cultivars as opposed to climate variables. The study further found that maize producers were proactively adapting to climate change, thus, reducing their vulnerability to its impacts.

Climatic Drivers of the Complex Phenology of the Mediterranean Semi-Deciduous Shrub Phlomis fruticosa Based on Satellite-Derived EVI

A 21-year Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) time-series produced from MODIS satellite images was used to study the complex phenological cycle of the drought semi-deciduous shrub Phlomis fruticosa and additionally to identify and compare phenological events between two Mediterranean sites with different microclimates. In the more xeric Araxos site, spring leaf fall starts earlier, autumn revival occurs later, and the dry period is longer, compared with the more favorable Louros site. Accordingly, the control of climatic factors on phenological events was examined and found that the Araxos site is mostly influenced by rain related events while Louros site by both rain and temperature. Spring phenological events showed significant shifts at a rate of 1-4.9 days per year in Araxos, which were positively related to trends for decreasing spring precipitation and increasing summer temperature. Furthermore, the climatic control on the inter-annual EVI fluctuation was examined through multiple linear regression and machine learning approaches. For both sites, temperature during the previous 2-3 months and rain days of the previous 3 months were identified as the main drivers of the EVI profile. Our results emphasize the importance of focusing on a single species and small-spatial-scale information in connecting vegetation responses to the climate crisis.