Analyzing the Spatiotemporal Distribution and Characteristics of Liver Cirrhosis in Hospitalized Patients in Wuwei, Gansu Province During 1995-2016: A Long-Term Retrospective Study

Objectives: This was a long-term retrospective study, aiming to understand the temporal and spatial trend of cirrhosis in Wuwei from 1995 to 2016, explore its spatio-temporal aggregation, and find out the high incidence areas. To provide theoretical basis for the formulation of comprehensive prevention and treatment strategy of cirrhosis in Wuwei. Methods: Herein, we extracted data of cirrhosis patients who were treated in 12 sentinel hospitals in Wuwei from their medical records. We used SAS and Joinpoint Regression Program for data analysis, SaTScan 9.4 software for clustering area detection, and ArcGIS 10.2 software for geographical distribution mapping. Results: Among 3308 patients with liver cirrhosis (average age, 55.34 years) included in this study, 15.9% were aged 50-54 years. The majority were men (2716, 65.8%), with a sex ratio of 1.92:1 and peasants by occupation (1369, 60.3%). The basic social medical insurance system covered the healthcare costs of 1271 patients (63%). A Joinpoint regression analysis done for 1995-2016 revealed an increase in the standardized cirrhosis rate [average annual percent change (AAPC) = 16.7% (95% CI, 10.2-23.5%)] with three joinpoints in 2010, 2013, and 2016. The annual percent change (APC) from 1995 to 2010 was 11.13% (95% CI: 6.5-16.0), and APC from 2010 to 2013 was 66.48% (95% CI:16.0-138.9); conversely, from 2013 to 2016, APC was 4.4% (95% CI, -7.5-17.8%). Hongshagang Town showed the highest average incidence. Each township showed a gradual increase in the incidence after 2010. The results revealed that in each township, liver cirrhosis incidence had some spatial aggregation and was nonrandom. Four liver cirrhosis clusters were noted in 75 townships in Wuwei. Data were gathered from 2011 to 2016. Conclusions: From 1995 to 2016, the incidence of cirrhosis in Wuwei still showed an increasing trend, but the growth rate slowed down since 2013. In Wuwei, the rate of standardization of cirrhosis in female patients increased steadily and faster than in male patients. It is necessary to strengthen the diagnosis, treatment, prevention, and control measures of cirrhosis-related diseases. The results of spatial scanning, basic spatial distribution, aggregation time, and time trend analysis were consistent.

Understanding the spatio-temporal pattern of COVID-19 outbreak in India using GIS and India's response in managing the pandemic

Due to the outbreak of Coronavirus, humans all over the world are facing several health problems. The present study has explored the spatio-temporal pattern of Coronavirus spread in India including spatial clustering, identification of hotspot, spatial heterogeneity, and homogeneity, spatial trend, and direction of COVID-19 cases using spatial statistical analysis during the period of 30 January to 20 June 2020. Besides, the polynomial regression model has been used for predictions of COVID-19 affected population and related deaths. The study found positive spatial heterogeneity in COVID-19 cases in India. The study has also identified 17 epicentres across the country with high incidence rates. The directional distribution of ellipse polygon shows that the spread of COVID-19 now trending towards the east but the concentration of cases is mainly in the western part of the country. The country's trend of COVID-19 follows a fourth-order polynomial growth and is characterized by an increasing trend. The prediction results show that as on 14 October India will reach 14,660,400 COVID-19 cases and the death toll will cross 152,945. Therefore, a "space-specific" policy strategy would be a more suitable strategy for reducing the spatial spread of the virus in India. Moreover, the study has broadly found out seven sectors, where the Government of India lacks in terms of confronting the ongoing pandemic. The study has also recommended some appropriate policies which would be immensely useful for the administration to initiate strategic planning.

Temporal and spatial distribution trends of human brucellosis in Liaoning Province, China

Brucellosis is a natural epidemic zoonotic disease. Liaoning province, north-east of China, has been among the top 10 provinces with highest brucellosis incidence. In this study, the spatial and temporal distribution of brucellosis in Liaoning Province from 2006 through 2017 was analysed using the Bayesian theory of space-time modelling. The study found that in Liaoning Province, (a) all regions of the entire study area were stable counties; (b) the risk of brucellosis declined slowly with time without an obvious trend; (c) the declining trend of disease risk in three sub-hot-spot counties was faster than the overall trend, whereas in other counties, the trend was similar to the overall trend. Furthermore, the time and spatial trends of brucellosis incidence in Liaoning Province were calculated and analysed. These results may provide a theoretical and scientific basis for the public health department to develop targeted effective prevention and control measures for the disease.

Analysis of inpatients' characteristics and spatio-temporal distribution of liver cancer incidence in Wuwei, Gansu Province, from 1995 to 2016: A long-term span retrospective study

This long-term span retrospective study aimed to determine the incidence and spatial-temporal trends of liver cancer in Wuwei city from 1995 to 2016 to provide scientific knowledge on the prevention and treatment of liver cancer.Data from the medical records of liver cancer patients treated in 12 sentinel hospitals in Wuwei city were extracted. SAS and Joinpoint software were used for data analysis, ArcGIS 10.2 software was used to make geographical distribution map, and SaTScan 9.4 software was used for clustering area detection.Of 2271 patients with liver cancer (average age, 58.73 years), 17.7% were 60 to 64 years of age. Majority were males (1680, 74%), with a sex ratio of 2.84. Joinpoint regression analysis from 1995 to 2016 revealed that the standardized liver cancer rate increased [annual average rate of change (AAPC) = 12.80% (95% CI: 9.5%-16.7%)], with a joinpoint in 2009. From 1995 to 2009, the change in overall APC was statistically significant [APC = 16.7 (95% CI: 12.3%-21.3%)]. The average incidence was the highest in Hongshagang Town. After 2005, the incidence gradually increased in each township. Five clusters of liver cancer were noted in Wuwei, including 37 townships.Males had a higher standardized liver cancer rate. After 2009, increase in the incidence of liver cancer was less rapid. The incidence of liver cancer in townships of Wuwei city was non-random, with certain spatial aggregations, covering 37 townships.