Information criteria for detecting change-points in the Cox proportional hazards model

The Cox proportional hazards model, commonly used in clinical trials, assumes proportional hazards. However, it does not hold when, for example, there is a delayed onset of the treatment effect. In such a situation, an acute change in the hazard ratio function is expected to exist. This paper considers the Cox model with change-points and derives Akaike information criterion (AIC)-type information criteria for detecting those change-points. The change-point model does not allow for conventional statistical asymptotics due to its irregularity, thus a formal AIC that penalizes twice the number of parameters would not be analytically derived, and using it would clearly give overfitting analysis results. Therefore, we will construct specific asymptotics using the partial likelihood estimation method in the Cox model with change-points, and propose information criteria based on the original derivation method for AIC. If the partial likelihood is used in the estimation, information criteria with penalties much larger than twice the number of parameters could be obtained in an explicit form. Numerical experiments confirm that the proposed criteria are clearly superior in terms of the original purpose of AIC, which are to provide an estimate that is close to the true structure. We also apply the proposed criterion to actual clinical trial data to indicate that it will easily lead to different results from the formal AIC.

Cryptophlebia peltastica Nucleopolyhedrovirus Is Highly Infectious to Codling Moth Larvae and Cells

Cydia pomonella granulovirus (CpGV) is a cornerstone of codling moth (Cydia pomonella) control in integrated and organic pome fruit production, though different types of resistance to CpGV products have been recorded in codling moth field populations in Europe for several years. Recently, a novel baculovirus named Cryptophlebia peltastica nucleopolyhedrovirus (CrpeNPV) was isolated from a laboratory culture of the litchi moth, Cryptophlebia peltastica, in South Africa. Along with CpGV, it is the third known baculovirus that is infectious to codling moth. In the present study, parameters of infectiveness of CrpeNPV, such as the median lethal concentration and median survival time, were determined for codling moth larvae susceptible or resistant to CpGV. In addition, the permissiveness of a codling moth cell line with respect to infection by CrpeNPV budded virus was demonstrated by infection and gene expression studies designed to investigate the complete replication cycle. Investigations of the high degree of virulence of CrpeNPV for codling moth larvae and cells are of high significant scientific and economic value and may offer new strategies for the biological control of susceptible and resistant populations of codling moth.IMPORTANCE The emergence of codling moth populations resistant to commercially applied isolates of CpGV is posing an imminent threat to organic pome fruit production. Very few CpGV isolates are left that are able to overcome the reported types of resistance, emphasizing the demand for new and highly virulent baculoviruses. Here we report the recently discovered CrpeNPV as highly infectious to all types of resistant codling moth populations with a high speed of killing, making it a promising candidate baculovirus in fighting the spread of resistant codling moth populations.