Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

BACKGROUND

Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC).

FINDINGS

In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683-0·717]).

INTERPRETATION

In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required.

FUNDING

British Journal of Surgery Society.

Population-based cohort study of variation in the use of emergency cholecystectomy for benign gallbladder diseases

Background

The aims of this prospective population-based cohort study were to identify the patient and hospital characteristics associated with emergency cholecystectomy, and the influences of these in determining variations between hospitals.

Methods

Data were collected for consecutive patients undergoing cholecystectomy in acute UK and Irish hospitals between 1 March and 1 May 2014. Potential explanatory variables influencing the performance of emergency cholecystectomy were analysed by means of multilevel, multivariable logistic regression modelling using a two-level hierarchical structure with patients (level 1) nested within hospitals (level 2).

Results

Data were collected on 4744 cholecystectomies from 165 hospitals. Increasing age, lower ASA fitness grade, biliary colic, the need for further imaging (magnetic retrograde cholangiopancreatography), endoscopic interventions (endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography) and admission to a non-biliary centre significantly reduced the likelihood of an emergency cholecystectomy being performed. The multilevel model was used to calculate the probability of receiving an emergency cholecystectomy for a woman aged 40 years or over with an ASA grade of I or II and a BMI of at least 25·0 kg/m2, who presented with acute cholecystitis with an ultrasound scan showing a thick-walled gallbladder and a normal common bile duct. The mean predicted probability of receiving an emergency cholecystectomy was 0·52 (95 per cent c.i. 0·45 to 0·57). The predicted probabilities ranged from 0·02 to 0·95 across the 165 hospitals, demonstrating significant variation between hospitals.

Conclusion

Patients with similar characteristics presenting to different hospitals with acute gallbladder pathology do not receive comparable care.

Validity of parental recall of children's fracture: implications for investigation of childhood osteoporosis

Fracture history is an important component of osteoporosis diagnosis in children. One in six parentally reported lifetime fractures in children were not confirmed on review of radiographs. Care should be taken to avoid unnecessary investigations for possible osteoporosis due to parental over-reporting of soft tissue injuries as fractures.

INTRODUCTION

The diagnosis of osteoporosis in children requires either a vertebral compression fracture, or a significant fracture history (defined as ≥2 long bone fractures <10 years or ≥3 long bone fractures <19 years, excluding high impact fractures) and low bone mineral density. As children with frequent fractures might benefit from further evaluation, we determined whether parental reports of lifetime fracture were accurate compared to radiological reports and if they appropriately selected children for further consideration of osteoporosis.

METHODS

Parents of children (<18 years) with a musculoskeletal injury completed a questionnaire on their child's fracture history, including age, site and mechanism of previous fracture(s). Radiological reports were reviewed to confirm the fracture.

RESULTS

Six hundred sixty parents completed the questionnaire and reported 276 previous fractures in 207 children. An injury treated at our hospital was recorded in 214 of the 276 parentally reported fractures. Thirty-four of 214 (16 %) were not a confirmed fracture. An injury was recorded for all parentally reported fractures in 150 children, but for 21 % children, there were inaccurate details (no evidence of fracture, incorrect site or forgotten fractures) on parent report. Eighteen of 150 children had a significant fracture history on parental report alone, but following review of radiology reports, 2 of 18 (11 %) did not have clinically significant fracture histories.

CONCLUSIONS

Approximately one in six fractures reported by parents to have occurred in their child's lifetime had not resulted in a fracture. One in nine children with a significant fracture history could have been investigated unnecessarily.

Pyoderma gangrenosum arising in a breast reduction scar: seven years post-procedure

Pyoderma gangrenosum (PG) is an unusual skin condition causing inflammation and sterile ulceration. It may occur in the context of a systemic disease or in otherwise healthy patients following trauma. Treatment is immunosuppression. Surgical debridement may worsen the disease. Post-surgical PG of the breast is rare and in previous reports has occurred within days or weeks of surgery. We report a highly unusual case of PG occurring at an incision site seven years after reduction mammoplasty.