Applicability of Chronic Multiple Linear Regression Models for Predicting Zinc Toxicity in Australian and New Zealand Freshwaters

Bioavailability models, for example, multiple linear regressions (MLRs) of water quality parameters, are increasingly being used to develop bioavailability-based water quality criteria for metals. However, models developed for the Northern Hemisphere cannot be adopted for Australia and New Zealand without first validating them against local species and local water chemistry characteristics. We investigated the applicability of zinc chronic bioavailability models to predict toxicity in a range of uncontaminated natural waters in Australia and New Zealand. Water chemistry data were compiled to guide a selection of waters with different zinc toxicity-modifying factors. Predicted toxicities using several bioavailability models were compared with observed chronic toxicities for the green alga Raphidocelis subcapitata and the native cladocerans Ceriodaphnia cf. dubia and Daphnia thomsoni. The most sensitive species to zinc in five New Zealand freshwaters was R. subcapitata (72-h growth rate), with toxicity ameliorated by high dissolved organic carbon (DOC) or low pH, and hardness having a minimal influence. Zinc toxicity to D. thomsoni (reproduction) was ameliorated by both high DOC and hardness in these same waters. No single trophic level-specific effect concentration, 10% (EC10) MLR was the best predictor of chronic toxicity to the cladocerans, and MLRs based on EC10 values both over- and under-predicted zinc toxicity. The EC50 MLRs better predicted toxicities to both the Australian and New Zealand cladocerans to within a factor of 2 of the observed toxicities in most waters. These findings suggest that existing MLRs may be useful for normalizing local ecotoxicity data to derive water quality criteria for Australia and New Zealand. The final choice of models will depend on their predictive ability, level of protection, and ease of use. Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;42:2614-2629. © 2023 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

Evaluating the Protectiveness of a Bioavailability-Based Environmental Quality Standard for the Protection of Aquatic Communities from Zinc Toxicity Based on Field Evidence

Environmental quality standards (EQS) are typically derived from the results of laboratory studies on single species. There is always uncertainty surrounding the protectiveness of an EQS when applied to real ecosystems containing a multitude of chemical and physical stressors. Quantile regression was used with field biological data on invertebrates in United Kingdom waters to identify taxa that are responsive to bioavailable zinc exposures. A threshold based on the total abundance of eight responsive taxa is used as an indicator of the overall ecosystem sensitivity. The inclusion of some responsive but insensitive taxa in this ecological metric could bias the results toward a higher threshold. The least responsive species were progressively removed from the collective ecological metric, basing the analysis on a progressively smaller number of the more responsive species. Quantile regression analysis at the 95th quantile for the three most responsive taxa resulted in a 10% effect concentration of 14.8 µg L^-1 bioavailable zinc, suggesting that the EQS of 10.9 µg L^-1 bioavailable zinc is sufficiently protective of sensitive members of the invertebrate community. There is a compromise between the robustness of the analysis and the sensitivity of the subcommunity that it is based on. Analyses based on fewer taxa provide a more sensitive result. This approach assessed real ecosystem data and evaluated the uncertainty associated with the protectiveness of the EQS for zinc. The zinc EQS is sufficiently protective of sensitive members of benthic macroinvertebrate communities under real environmental conditions, including a mix of multiple substances. Environ Toxicol Chem 2023;42:1010-1021. © 2023 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.

Identification of European isolates of the lager yeast parent Saccharomyces eubayanus

Lager brewing first occurred in Bavaria in the 15th century, associated with restrictions of brewing to colder months. The lager yeast, Saccharomyces pastorianus, is cold tolerant. It is a hybrid between Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Saccharomyces eubayanus, and has been found only in industrial settings. Natural isolates of S. eubayanus were first discovered in Patagonia 11 years ago. They have since been isolated from China, Tibet, New Zealand, and North America, but not from Europe. Here, we describe the first European strains UCD646 and UCD650, isolated from a wooded area on a university campus in Dublin, Ireland. We generated complete chromosome level assemblies of both genomes using long- and short-read sequencing. The UCD isolates belong to the Holarctic clade. Genome analysis shows that isolates similar to the Irish strains contributed to the S. eubayanus component of S. pastorianus, but isolates from Tibet made a larger contribution.

79 EXPERIENCES OF DIRECTORS OF NURSING IN RESIDENTIAL CARE OF OLDER PEOPLE DURING COVID 19

Background

COVID-19 was a global public health crisis and deaths in the over 65 age group represented a disproportionate number of deaths in older people. In particular, nursing homes experienced clusters of infection and high mortality rates. This paper discusses experiences of care homes’ Directors of Nursing/Persons in Charge (DoN) in their preparedness, management and control of care during COVID-19.

Methods

A mixed methods approach was used (survey- n=122) and semi-structured interviews (n=20) were conducted with DoNs in private and voluntary older person care homes in the Republic of Ireland. Survey data was analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Interviews were analysed using Braun & Clarke's thematic analysis.

Results

DoNs demonstrated an initial challenge in protecting residents from infection and also managing infection outbreak. However, over time they experienced more effectiveness in managing infection prevention and control as demanded at the level of a pandemic. Fifty percent of respondents experienced an infection outbreak and the data does not demonstrate any significant difference in preparedness and management in care homes which had outbreaks and those who had no outbreaks. Other challenges were related to financial sustainability of their facility while 47% of DoNs were either actively seeking other work, or thinking of leaving their post. In the interviews, the DoNs spoke of persistent concerns with the well-being of the staff and residents and a constant worry about meeting regulatory requirements and ensuring adequate staff cover for residents care needs. Moreover, the DoNs spoke of the difficulties when the media sensationalized poor care leading to a reduction of public confidence in the sector.

Conclusion

The DoNs were under constant alert and although had acclimatized to high level of infection control and prevention and managing emerging issues, the strain of the pandemic remained evident. Recommendations are given related to care homes and related to system level management for future public health crisis.

POS1138 PERSISTENCY OF DEPRESSIVE SYMPTOMS AND PHYSICAL PERFORMANCE IN KNEE OSTEOARTHRITIS

Background

Knee osteoarthritis (OA) is the most prevalent arthritic disorder, characterized by joint paint, which is exacerbated by chronic depressive episodes. Depression in knee OA is also associated with declines in physical activity level and greater disability; however, the impact of persistent depressive symptoms on physical performance remains unclear.

Objectives

To determine how the persistence of depressive symptoms affects functional capacity in knee OA.

Methods

Participants (n=2,212) were from the Osteoarthritis Initiative cohort and included individuals with radiographic disease (Kellgren-Lawrence grade ≥ 2) and complete data on study measures at baseline. Depressive symptoms were assessed using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D; range 0-60) at baseline and the first three follow-up visits. Physical Performance was measured using 20-meter gait speed (meters per second) during follow-up at the first four annual visits. Persistency of depressive symptoms was operationalized as a cumulative exposure using average severity over time. Gait speed was standardized so that outcome estimates could be interpreted in standard deviations. Time-invariant confounders measured at study enrollment included demographic, socioeconomic, and lifestyle factors. Time-varying confounders assessed concurrent to CES-D scores were body mass index, analgesic medications, pain, and other knee OA signs and symptoms. Marginal structural models accounting for time-dependent confounding and selective attrition were the primary method of analysis. The outcome model included all potential statistical interactions between depressive symptoms and follow-up time indicators. Post-estimation linear combinations estimated time-specific effects of time-averaged CES-D scores on standardized gait speed and differences in physical performance between participants with (i.e., CES-D=16) and without (i.e., CES-D=0) depressive symptoms satisfying screening criteria for major depression.

Results

The interaction between depressive symptoms and time was statistically significant (P=<0.001). Time-specific associations indicated that the largest negative impact of depressive symptoms on physical performance was from baseline through year one (β = -0.0077; 95% CI: -0.0125, 0.0030). However, the effect of persistent depressive symptoms decreased over time and reversed in magnitude and directionality, evidenced by the time-specific associations between time-averaged CES-D scores from baseline through year one and year two and gait speed at year two (β = -0.0033; 95% CI: -0.0084, 0.0019) and year three (β = 0.0014; 95% CI: -0.0046, 0.0074), respectively. Consequently, the strongest negative affect of depressive symptoms on gait speed (β = -0.1232; 95% CI: -0.1998, -0.0473) between participants with and without depressive symptoms satisfying screening criteria for major depression was when depressive symptoms were first measured closest to the initial gait speed assessment.

Conclusion

In the contrast to the dose-dependent relationship between chronic depressive episodes and pain in knee OA, study findings imply that the negative effect of depressive symptoms on physical performance decreases over time with increasing depression persistency. These results may reflect diminishing marginal effects, where the largest impact on physical performance in knee OA is during the first depressive episode closest to initial gait speed assessment, especially when averaged against improvement in symptoms over the same duration.

Acknowledgements

The OAI is a public-private partnership comprised of five contracts (N01-AR-2-2258; N01-AR-2-2259; N01-AR-2-2260; N01-AR-2-2261; N01-AR-2-2262) funded by the National Institutes of Health, a branch of the Department of Health and Human Services, and conducted by the OAI Study Investigators. Private funding partners include Merck Research Laboratories; Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation, GlaxoSmithKline; and Pfizer, Inc. Private sector funding for the OAI is managed by the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health. This manuscript was prepared using an OAI public use data set and does not necessarily reflect the opinions or views of the OAI investigators, the NIH, or the private funding partners.

Disclosure of Interests

Rhea Mehta: None declared, Michelle Shardell: None declared, Alice Ryan: None declared, Yu Dong: None declared, Brock Beamer: None declared, Joseph Gallo: None declared, Elizabeth Stuart: None declared, Megan Schuler: None declared, Marc Hochberg Shareholder of: Dr. Marc C. Hochberg is the President of Rheumcon Corporation., Consultant of: Dr. Marc C. Hochberg receives consulting fees from Bioiberica SA, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly, EMD Serono, Galapagos, IBSA Biotechniq SA, Novartis Pharma AG, Pfizer, Plexxikon, Samumed LLC, Theralogix LLC, and TissueGene Inc., Alan Rathbun: None declared

Application of an electrocardiography device (iECG) for heart rhythm analysis after exercise in Thoroughbred horses

AliveCor is a smartphone electrocardiography device (iECG) providing automated heart rate (HR) and rhythm determination. Atrial fibrillation (AF) in horses often is paroxysmal and rapid ECG acquisition is needed for diagnostic confirmation. iECGs were collected post-race from 15 horses with AF and 64 horses in sinus rhythm (SR). Results of manual assessment were compared to 3 commercial algorithms for HR and rhythm. Agreement between manually derived HR (HR_M ) and HR derived by the AliveECG Vet (HR_VET ) and Kardia version-1 (K_V1 HR) and Kardia advanced (K_ADV HR) algorithms was quantified by the Bland-Altman limits of agreement test. Agreement between manual rhythm classification and K_V1 and K_ADV algorithms for AF and SR was calculated by the Kappa statistical coefficient. The agreement (bias, 95% limits), between HR_M and HR_VET was 7.1 BPM (-29 to 43) in AF and -4.2 BPM (-38 to 30) in SR, between HR_M and K_V1 HR, was -0.3 BPM (-31 to 30) in AF and 0.2 BPM (-3 to 4) in SR, and between HR_M and K_ADV HR was 7.0 BPM (-29 to 43) in AF and 0.2 BPM (-3.9 to 4.2) in SR. Agreement between manual rhythm classification and K_V1 was 0.36 (0.13-0.59), and K_ADV was 0.84 (0.68-0.99). Sensitivity and specificity for identification of AF and SR of the K_V1 algorithm were 60, 100% and 83, 100%, respectively, and of K_ADV was 87, 100% and 93, 100% respectively. The Kardia algorithms improved precision for HR determination in SR but not AF. The advanced algorithm accurately distinguished between AF and SR. The iECG is suitable for recording episodes of AF following exercise.

Protection of bone mineral density in heart failure patients:audit on current clinical practice in a busy tertiary care hospital cardiology department in Ireland

Background

The strong association between heart failure (HF) and osteoporosis is well recognised. Heart failure, due to its multiple risk factors and common pathogenesis with osteoporosis can lead to low bone mineral density (BMD) and increase the risk of fragility fractures. The mortality of HF patients following these fractures is high. Current National Osteoporosis Foundation Guidelines recommend that pharmacological therapy should be reserved for postmenopausal women and men aged 50 years or older who present with a hip or vertebral fracture, where the vertebral fractures may be clinical or identified on a radiograph alone.

Methods

Most HF patients have frequent chest radiographs over their course years. We aimed to audit the prevalence of osteoporosis and current practice of prescribing BMD-protection in patients attending the HF clinic in a busy tertiary care hospital in Ireland. 100 patients attending the clinic in the last one year were randomly selected and clinical, medication and chest radiograph information on this cohort was collected via the hospital electronic information system. All those patients with Radiologist confirmed vertebral compression fractures (VCF) on their plain chest radiographs were audited regarding osteoporosis screening and bone protection prescription.

Results

Due to limited penetration,18 out of 100 chest radiographs were inconclusive,reducing the sample size to 82. 9 out of the remaining 82 patients had radiologist confirmed VCF on their plain chest radiographs whereas 2 patients had VCF incidentally picked up on their lumbar spine x-rays. All patients were aged more than 50. 4 were female and 7 male. Median ejection fraction calculated was 35%. 3 out of 11 were smokers,8 had atrial fibrillation and were on anticoagulation,4 had DM-II and 2 had CKD. 10 were on loop diuretics. Of note,4 patients were on calcium and vitamin D supplements but only 1 patient was on antiresorptive therapy for osteoporosis.

Conclusion

Despite its strong association with heart failure,Osteoporosis remains undertreated in this patient cohort.Due to the significant mortality and morbidity associated with major osteoporotic fractures, doctors should carefully assess and screen heart failure patients for osteoporosis and initiate specific therapy where indicated.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: None.

Draft Genome Sequence of a Diploid and Hybrid Candida Strain, Candida sanyaensis UCD423, Isolated from Compost in Ireland

Candida sanyaensis is a CUG-Ser1 clade yeast that is associated with soil. Assembly of short-read and long-read data shows that C. sanyaensis has a diploid and hybrid genome, with approximately 97% identity between the haplotypes. The haploid genome size is approximately 15.4 Mb.

Patient preference and pain-reported outcomes for topical versus subtenon anesthetic for cataract surgery

PURPOSE:

Cataract extraction and lens implantation is the most common surgical procedure performed worldwide, with surgeons opting for either a topical or a subtenon anesthetic in majority of cases. While complication rates and pain scores have been previously examined in a bid to determine which modality was better, patients who have had both eyes operated upon under different techniques have never previously been asked which method they prefer. We undertook this study to fill in this crucial gap in our knowledge.

METHODS:

This is a retrospective study of patients who have undergone bilateral cataract surgery with one eye operated on with topical anesthesia and the other eye with subtenon anesthesia. Patients were identified who had had surgery undertaken in the previous 6 months at Singleton Hospital, Swansea, where both eyes had been operated upon using different anesthetic techniques. Telephone interviews with these patients were performed and their pain scores recorded on a scale from 0 (no pain) to 10 (severe pain) for both eyes, with the patients then being asked which the method of anesthetic they preferred. Statistical analysis of pain scores was compared using Wilcoxon rank-sum testing.

RESULTS:

One hundred and fifty-two patients in total were identified. One hundred and forty-one of the applicable patients participated in the study. Of these, 78 patients received topical anesthesia for their first operation and 63 had subtenon block for their first operation. The mean pain scores reported for surgery with topical anesthesia and subtenon block were 2.30 and 1.38, respectively. The pain data were analyzed using a Wilcoxon signed-rank test, returning a z-score of 4.038. This result therefore suggests that patients experience statistically significantly less pain from cataract surgery when given a subtenon block. Patients expressed a preference for subtenon anesthesia, with 70% preferring subtenon block, 23% preferring topical anesthesia, and 7% having no preference.

CONCLUSIONS:

Patients report less pain with subtenon anesthesia compared with topical anesthesia in cataract surgery, where both eyes were operated upon with different anesthetic techniques. This is the first study in which patients who have had both anesthetic techniques performed independently for cataract surgery have had their pain scores reported and statistically analyzed.

Deriving a bioavailability-based zinc environmental quality standard for France

National Environmental Quality Standards (EQS) for zinc used for the assessment of ecological status in freshwaters have been shown to vary by over two orders of magnitude across 25 European countries. Such variability is unlikely to reflect consistent ecological protection or environmental relevance. Recent European technical guidance on EQS derivation gives an opportunity to derive protective metrics for zinc that are relevant to national water chemistry conditions. To derive a zinc EQS relevant to national water chemistry conditions and account for bioavailability, the new technical guidance requires high-quality spatial and temporal monitoring data. These data must be of water samples with concurrent measures of pH, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and calcium, the parameters that most influence zinc bioavailability in freshwaters. A national bioavailability-based zinc EQS for France has been derived from Biotic Ligand Model calculations undertaken for freshwaters samples from 4645 sites (22,000 samples with concurrent measures of pH, DOC, calcium) in 96 regions. An EQS of 11.3 μg Zn L^-1 was derived based on sensitive waters from the Bretagne region typically of circumneutral pH and relatively low DOC and low dissolved calcium. The least sensitive waters to zinc exposures in France are found in the Hauts-De-France, higher pH values than those in Bretagne, similar dissolved organic carbon and higher dissolved calcium. An indicative assessment of compliance showed that across France, 2% of the sites would exceed this bioavailability-based EQS.

Radioprotective effects of induced astronaut torpor and advanced propulsion systems during deep space travel

BACKGROUND

Human metabolic suppression is not a new concept, with 1950s scientific literature and movies demonstrating its potential use for deep space travel (Hock, 1960). An artificially induced state of metabolic suppression in the form of torpor would improve the amount of supplies required and therefore lessen weight and fuel required for missions to Mars and beyond (Choukèr et al., 2019). Transfer habitats for human stasis to Mars have been conceived (Bradford et al., 2018). Evidence suggests that animals, when hibernating, demonstrate relative radioprotection compared to their awake state. Experiments have also demonstrated relative radioprotection in conditions of hypothermia as well as during sleep (Bellesi et al., 2016 and Andersen et al., 2009). Circadian rhythm disrupted cells also appear to be more susceptible to radiation damage compared to those that are under a rhythmic control (Dakup et al., 2018). An induced torpor state for astronauts on deep space missions may provide a biological radioprotective state due to a decreased metabolism and hypothermic conditions. A regular enforced circadian rhythm might further limit DNA damage from radiation. The As Low As Reasonably Achievable (A.L.A.R.A.) radiation protection concept defines time, distance and shielding as ways to decrease radiation exposure. Whilst distance cannot be altered in space and shielding either passively or actively may be beneficial, time of exposure may be drastically decreased with improved propulsion systems. Whilst chemical propulsion systems have superior thrust to other systems, they lack high changes in velocity and fuel efficiency which can be achieved with nuclear or electric based propulsion systems. Radiation toxicity could be limited by reduced transit times, combined with the radioprotective effects of enforced circadian rhythms during a state of torpor or hibernation.

OBJECTIVES

1. Investigate how the circadian clock and body temperature may contribute to radioprotection during human torpor on deep space missions. 2. Estimate radiation dose received by astronauts during a transit to Mars with varying propulsion systems.

METHODS

We simulated three types of conditions to investigate the potential radioprotective effect of the circadian clock and decreased temperature on cells being exposed to radiation such that may be the case during astronaut torpor. These conditions were: - Circadian clock strength: strong vs weak. - Light exposure: dark-dark vs light-dark cycle - Body temperature: 37C vs hypothermia vs torpor. We estimated transit times for a mission to Mars from Earth utilizing chemical, nuclear and electrical propulsion systems. Transit times were generated using the General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) and Matlab. These times were then input into the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Online Tool for the Assessment of Radiation In Space (OLTARIS) computer simulator to estimate doses received by an astronaut for the three propulsion methods.

RESULTS

Our simulation demonstrated an increase in radioprotection with decreasing temperature. The greatest degree of radioprotection was shown in cells that maintained a strong circadian clock during torpor. This was in contrast to relatively lower radioprotection in cells with a weak clock during normothermia. We were also able to demonstrate that if torpor weakened the circadian clock, a protective effect could be partially restored by an external drive such as lighting schedules to aid entrainment i.e.: Blue light exposure for periods of awake and no light for rest times For the propulsion simulation, estimated transit times from Earth to Mars were 258 days for chemical propulsion with 165.9mSv received, 209 days for nuclear propulsion with 134.4mSv received and 80 days for electrical propulsion with 51.4mSv received.

CONCLUSION

A state of torpor for astronauts on deep space missions may not only improve weight, fuel and storage requirements but also provide a potential biological radiation protection strategy. Moreover, maintaining a controlled circadian rhythm during torpor conditions may aid radioprotection. In the not too distant future, propulsion techniques will be improved to limit transit time and hence decrease radiation dose to astronauts. Limiting exposure time and enhancing physiological radioprotection during transit could provide superior radioprotection benefits compared with active and passive radiation shielding strategies alone.

Serial endometrial thickness and risk of non-endometrial hormone-dependent cancers in postmenopausal women in UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening

OBJECTIVE

Estrogen is a well-established risk factor for various cancers. It causes endometrial proliferation, which is assessed routinely as endometrial thickness (ET) using transvaginal ultrasound (TVS). Only one previous study, restricted to endometrial and breast cancer, has considered ET and the risk of non-endometrial cancer. The aim of this study was to explore the association between baseline and serial ET measurements and nine non-endometrial hormone-sensitive cancers, in postmenopausal women, using contemporary statistical methodology that attempts to minimize the biases typical of endogenous serial data.

METHODS

This was a cohort study nested within the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). In the ultrasound arm of UKCTOCS, 50639 postmenopausal women, aged 50-74, underwent annual TVS examination, of whom 38 105 had a valid ET measurement, no prior hysterectomy and complete covariate data, and were included in this study. All women were followed up through linkage to national cancer registries. The effect of ET on the risk of six estrogen-dependent cancers (breast, ovarian, colorectal, bladder, lung and pancreatic) was assessed using joint models for longitudinal biomarker and time-to-event data, and Cox models were used to assess the association between baseline ET measurement and these six cancers in addition to liver cancer, gastric cancer and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL). All models were adjusted for current hormone-replacement therapy (HRT) use, body mass index, age at last menstrual period, parity and oral contraceptive pill use.

RESULTS

The 38 105 included women had a combined total of 267 567 (median, 8; interquartile range, 5-9) valid ET measurements. During a combined total of 407 838 (median, 10.9) years of follow-up, 1398 breast, 351 endometrial, 381 lung, 495 colorectal, 222 ovarian, 94 pancreatic, 79 bladder, 62 gastric, 38 liver cancers and 52 NHLs were registered. Using joint models, a doubling of ET increased significantly the risk of breast (hazard ratio (HR), 1.21; 95% CI, 1.09-1.36; P = 0.001), ovarian (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.06-1.82; P = 0.018) and lung (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.02-1.54; P = 0.036) cancers. There were no statistically significant associations between ET and the remaining six cancers.

CONCLUSION

Postmenopausal women with high/increasing ET on TVS are at increased risk of breast, ovarian and lung cancer. It is important that clinicians are aware of these risks, as TVS is a common investigation. © 2019 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Investigation of a foodborne outbreak of Shigella sonnei in Ireland and Northern Ireland, December 2016: the benefits of cross-border collaboration and commercial sales data

OBJECTIVES

To describe a cross-border foodborne outbreak of Shigella sonnei that occurred in Ireland and Northern Ireland (NI) in December 2016 whilst also highlighting the valuable roles of sales data and international collaboration in the investigation and control of this outbreak.

STUDY DESIGN

A cross-border outbreak control team was established to investigate the outbreak.

METHODS

Epidemiological, microbiological, and environmental investigations were undertaken. Traditional analytical epidemiological studies were not feasible in this investigation. The restaurant chain provided sales data, which allowed assessment of a possible increased risk of illness associated with exposure to a particular type of heated food product (product A).

RESULTS

Confirmed cases demonstrated sole trimethoprim resistance: an atypical antibiogram for Shigella isolates in Ireland. Early communication and the sharing of information within the outbreak control team facilitated the early detection of the international dimension of this outbreak. A joint international alert using the European Centre for Disease Control's confidential Epidemic Intelligence Information System for Food- and Waterborne Diseases and Zoonoses (EPIS-FWD) did not reveal further cases outside of the island of Ireland. The outbreak investigation identified that nine of thirteen primary case individuals had consumed product A from one of multiple branches of a restaurant chain located throughout the island of Ireland. Product A was made specifically for this chain in a food production facility in NI. S. sonnei was not detected in food samples from the food production facility. Strong statistical associations were observed between visiting a branch of this restaurant chain between 5 and 9 December 2016 and eating product A and developing shigellosis.

CONCLUSIONS

This outbreak investigation highlights the importance of international collaboration in the efficient identification of cross-border foodborne outbreaks and the value of using sales data as the analytical component of such studies.

Abstract P5-15-06: Potential Medicare beneficiary out-of-pocket cost reductions through use of biosimilar filgrastim-sndz over reference filgrastim among breast cancer patients: A simulation model analysis

Rationale & Objective: Granulocyte colony-stimulating factors (G-CSFs) are utilized to decrease the incidence of febrile neutropenia (FN) in patients with cancers undergoing chemotherapy treatments. In 2015 biosimilar filgrastim-sndz was the first biosimilar to be approved and launched in the US market. Limited data exists in ascertaining the impact of biosimilars on patient out-of-pocket (OOP) expenditures. The objective of this simulation model was to estimate potential OOP cost savings through use of filgrastim-sndz over reference filgrastim from a Medicare breast cancer patient perspective.

Methods: An Excel simulation analysis was conducted among breast cancer patients treated with biosimilar filgrastim-sndz or the branded reference filgrastim (identified through HCPCS codes). Data from the 2016 Medicare Limited Data Set (5% sample of the carrier file) was used to populate the model. The payment calculation worksheet within the Medicare carrier file was used to calculate the average Medicare payment to the provider and the average beneficiary OOP responsibility per claim of either filgrastim-sndz or reference filgrastim. The average OOP reduction per claim for a filgrastim-sndz beneficiary relative to a reference filgrastim beneficiary was multiplied to a hypothetical FN prevalent population of 100,000 beneficiaries (average of 10 claims per beneficiary) to estimate the potential OOP savings.

Results: Data for 616 filgrastim-sndz and 1,064 reference filgrastim claims were used to populate the model. The average Medicare allowed charge amount per claim for a filgrastim-sndz beneficiary was $362.8 versus $406.9 for a reference filgrastim beneficiary, while corresponding average Medicare payments to the provider were $284.1 and $316.9, respectively. On an average, OOP responsibility for a filgrastim-sndz beneficiary was lower compared to a reference filgrastim beneficiary ($72.9 versus $82.5) leading to a cost saving per claim of $9.60. When extrapolated to 100,000 beneficiaries (1,000,000 claims), the overall cost saving was projected to be around $9.6 million.

Conclusions: Our simulation model estimated a potential OOP Medicare breast cancer beneficiary saving of around $9.6 million, based on a hypothetical population of 100,000 FN beneficiaries, with the use of biosimilar filgrastim-sndz over reference filgrastim. Further real-world analyses are required to evaluate the true cost saving potential from a breast cancer patient perspective with the use of biosimilars over reference biologics.

Citation Format: Puckrein G, Xu L, Ryan A, Campbell K, Balu S. Potential Medicare beneficiary out-of-pocket cost reductions through use of biosimilar filgrastim-sndz over reference filgrastim among breast cancer patients: A simulation model analysis [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2018 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2018 Dec 4-8; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P5-15-06.

Fetal fraction-based risk algorithm for non-invasive prenatal testing: screening for trisomies 13 and 18 and triploidy in women with low cell-free fetal DNA

OBJECTIVE

To identify pregnancies at increased risk for trisomy 13, trisomy 18 or triploidy attributable to low fetal fraction (FF).

METHODS

A FF-based risk (FFBR) model was built using data from more than 165 000 singleton pregnancies referred for single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-based non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT). Based on maternal weight and gestational age (GA), FF distributions for normal, trisomy 13, trisomy 18 and triploid pregnancies were constructed and used to adjust prior risks for these abnormalities. A risk cut-off of ≥ 1% was chosen to define pregnancies at high risk for trisomy 13, trisomy 18 or triploidy (high FFBR score). The model was evaluated on an independent blinded set of pregnancies for which SNP-based NIPT did not return a result, and for which pregnancy outcome information was gathered retrospectively.

RESULTS

The evaluation cohort comprised 1148 cases, of which approximately half received a high FFBR score. Compared with rates expected based on maternal age (MA) and GA, cases with a high FFBR score had a significantly increased rate of trisomy 13, trisomy 18 or triploidy combined (5.7% vs 0.7%; P < 0.001) and also of unexplained pregnancy loss (14.7% vs 10.4%; P < 0.001). For cases that did not receive a high FFBR score, the incidence of a chromosomal abnormality or pregnancy loss was not significantly different from that expected based on MA and GA. In this study cohort, the sensitivity of the FFBR model for detection of trisomy 13, trisomy 18 or triploidy was 91.4% (95% CI, 76.9-98.2%) with a positive predictive value of 5.7% (32/564; 95% CI, 3.9-7.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

For pregnancies with a FF too low to receive a result on standard NIPT, the FFBR algorithm identified a subset of cases at increased risk for trisomy 13, trisomy 18 or triploidy. For the remainder of cases, the risk of a fetal chromosomal abnormality was unchanged from that expected based on MA and GA. © 2018 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Application of a Fixed Monitoring Benchmark Approach to Evaluate Attainment of Time-Variable Water Quality Criteria: Copper Biotic Ligand Model as a Case Study

In 2007, the Biotic Ligand Model (BLM) became the basis for the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) freshwater water quality criteria (WQC) for Cu. Applying the BLM typically results in time-variable WQC, which are not unique to the BLM; they result from any criteria approach that depends on water chemistry (e.g., ammonia criteria or hardness-based equations for metals). However, widespread use of the BLM has renewed interest in developing an approach that considers variability when setting permit limits or benchmarks. To aid in establishing these benchmarks, we developed a fixed monitoring benchmark (FMB) approach: a probability-based method that incorporates time variability in BLM-predicted instantaneous water quality criteria (IWQC) and instream Cu concentrations. The FMB approach provides benchmarks that can be used to simplify implementation of time-variable WQC. Although it appears reasonable to apply this approach to derive a site-specific regulatory limit, the FMB does not technically represent a limit above which aquatic effects are expected. Rather, it represents a fixed concentration intended to yield the same level of protection as time-variable IWQC, which rely upon toxic unit (TU) distribution; each TU is calculated for a single sample using the Cu concentration and IWQC for this sample. The distribution of TUs for a particular site is used to estimate the probability that instream Cu concentrations are below associated IWQC. Our results suggest that Cu variability and corresponding IWQC, and their degree of correlation, indicate the magnitude of the FMB relative to the IWQC distribution. The FMB approach determines a maximum Cu distribution such that the resulting WQC exceedance frequency is consistent with the level of protection that is intended for the applicable water quality standard (WQS). This approach makes use of time-variable BLM-based WQC in regulatory contexts wherein a single benchmark is consistent with past practices and established implementation methods. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:722-735. © 2018 SETAC.

Association of plasma nitrite levels with obesity and metabolic syndrome in the Old Order Amish

OBJECTIVES

Plasma nitrite is a metabolite of nitric oxide and reflects endogenous nitric oxide synthase (NOS) activity. Although plasma nitrites were previously linked with obesity and metabolic syndrome (MetS), the direction of association remains inconsistent, possibly due to sample heterogeneity. In a relatively homogeneous population, we hypothesized that nitrite levels will be positively associated with overweight/obesity and MetS.

METHODS

Fasting nitrite levels were measured in 116 Old Order Amish (78% women). We performed age-and-sex-adjusted ancovas to compare nitrite levels between three groups (a) overweight/obese(-)MetS(-), (b) overweight/obese(+)MetS(-) and (c) overweight/obese(+)MetS)(+). Multivariate linear regressions were conducted on nitrite associations with continuous metabolic variables, with successive adjustments for demographics, body mass index, C-reactive protein and neopterin.

RESULTS

Nitrite levels were higher in the obese/overweight(+)MetS(+) group than in the other two groups (p < 0.001). Nitrites were positively associated with levels of triglycerides (p < 0.0001), total cholesterol (p = 0.048), high-density lipoprotein/cholesterol ratio (p < 0.0001) and fasting glucose (p < 0.0001), and negatively correlated with high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (p < 0.0001). These associations were robust to adjustments for body mass index and inflammatory markers.

CONCLUSION

Further investigation of the connection between obesity/MetS and plasma nitrite levels may lead to novel dietary and pharmacological approaches that ultimately may contribute to reducing the increasing burden of obesity, MetS and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality.

Association between skirt size and chronic liver disease in post-menopausal women: a prospective cohort study within the United Kingdom Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS)

Background

We investigated the association between self-reported skirt size (SS) and change in SS, and incidence of chronic liver disease (CLD) in a prospective cohort study of women recruited to the UKCTOCS trial.

Methods

Women recruited to UKCTOCS in England without documented CLD self-reported their current UK SS during trial participation and were asked to recall their SS when aged in 20s (via completion of a questionnaire 3–5 years after recruitment). Participants were followed up via electronic health record linkage and hazard ratios (HR) calculated for incident liver-related events (LRE).

Results

Three hundred twenty-two (0.3%) of 94,124 women experienced a first LRE. Compared to SS ≤ 16, rates of LRE were higher in the SS ≥ 18 groups (both when aged in 20s and at questionnaire completion). Event rates were higher if there was no change in SS or an increase in SS, compared to a decrease in SS.

In the models adjusted for potential confounders, HRs for LRE were higher in the groups of women reporting SS ≥ 18 both when aged in 20s (HR = 1.39 (95% CI; 0.87–2.23)) and at questionnaire completion (HR = 1.37 (95% CI; 1.07–1.75)). Compared to a decrease in SS, HRs were higher in the no change (HR = 1.78 (95% CI; 0.95–3.34)) and increase (HR = 1.80 (95% CI; 1.01–3.21)) groups.

Conclusion

CLD is associated with high SS and an increase in SS over time. These data suggest SS can be used in simple public health messages about communicating the risk of liver disease.

Trial Registration

UKCTOCS is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN22488978. Registered 06/04/2000.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-018-5308-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Sonographers' self-reported visualization of normal postmenopausal ovaries on transvaginal ultrasound is not reliable: results of expert review of archived images from UKCTOCS

OBJECTIVE

In the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS), self-reported visualization rate (VR) of the ovaries by the sonographer on annual transvaginal sonographic (TVS) examinations was a key quality control (QC) metric. The objective of this study was to assess self-reported VR using expert review of a random sample of archived images of TVS examinations from UKCTOCS, and then to develop software for measuring VR automatically.

METHODS

A single expert reviewed images archived from 1000 TVS examinations selected randomly from 68 931 TVS scans performed in UKCTOCS between 2008 and 2011 with ovaries reported as 'seen and normal'. Software was developed to identify the exact images used by the sonographer to measure the ovaries. This was achieved by measuring caliper dimensions in the image and matching them to those recorded by the sonographer. A logistic regression classifier to determine visualization was trained and validated using ovarian dimensions and visualization data reported by the expert.

RESULTS

The expert reviewer confirmed visualization of both ovaries (VR-Both) in 50.2% (502/1000) of the examinations. The software identified the measurement image in 534 exams, which were split 2:1:1 providing training, validation and test data. Classifier mean accuracy on validation data was 70.9% (95% CI, 70.0-71.8%). Analysis of test data (133 exams) provided a sensitivity of 90.5% (95% CI, 80.9-95.8%) and specificity of 47.5% (95% CI, 34.5-60.8%) in detecting expert confirmed visualization of both ovaries.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that, in a significant proportion of TVS annual screens, the sonographers may have mistaken other structures for normal ovaries. It is uncertain whether or not this affected the sensitivity and stage at detection of ovarian cancer in the ultrasound arm of UKCTOCS, but we conclude that QC metrics based on self-reported visualization of normal ovaries are unreliable. The classifier shows some potential for addressing this problem, though further research is needed. © 2017 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Clinical experience with a single-nucleotide polymorphism-based non-invasive prenatal test for five clinically significant microdeletions

Single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-based non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) can currently predict a subset of submicroscopic abnormalities associated with severe clinical manifestations. We retrospectively analyzed the performance of SNP-based NIPT in 80 449 referrals for 22q11.2 deletion syndrome and 42 326 referrals for 1p36, cri-du-chat, Prader-Willi, and Angelman microdeletion syndromes over a 1-year period, and compared the original screening protocol with a revision that reflexively sequenced high-risk calls at a higher depth of read. The prevalence of these microdeletion syndromes was also estimated in the referral population. The positive predictive value of the original test was 15.7% for 22q11.2 deletion syndrome, and 5.2% for the other 4 disorders combined. With the revised protocol, these values increased to 44.2% for 22q11.2 and 31.7% for the others. The 0.33% false-positive rate (FPR) for 22q11.2 deletion syndrome decreased to 0.07% with the revised protocol. Similarly, the FPR for the other 4 disorders combined decreased from 0.56% to 0.07%. Minimal prevalences were estimated to be 1 in 1255 for 22q11.2 deletion syndrome and 1 in 1464 for 1p36, cri-du-chat, and Angelman syndromes combined. Our results show that these microdeletions are relatively common in the referral population, and that the performance of SNP-based NIPT is improved with high-depth resequencing.

Prevalence and predictors of complementary and alternative medicine/non-pharmacological interventions use for menopausal symptoms within the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening

OBJECTIVES

The negative publicity about menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) has led to increased use of complementary and alternative medicines (CAM) and non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) for menopausal symptom relief. We report on the prevalence and predictors of CAM/NPI among UK postmenopausal women.

METHOD

Postmenopausal women aged 50-74 years were invited to participate in the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS). A total of 202 638 women were recruited and completed a baseline questionnaire. Of these, 136 020 were sent a postal follow-up-questionnaire between September 2006 and May 2009 which included ever-use of CAM/NPI for menopausal symptom relief. Both questionnaires included MHT use.

RESULTS

A total of 88 430 (65.0%) women returned a completed follow-up-questionnaire; 22 206 (25.1%) reported ever-use of one or more CAM/NPI. Highest use was reported for herbal therapies (43.8%; 9725/22 206), vitamins (42.6%; 9458/22 206), lifestyle approaches (32.1%; 7137/22 206) and phytoestrogens (21.6%; 4802/22 206). Older women reported less ever-use of herbal therapies, vitamins and phytoestrogens. Lifestyle approaches, aromatherapy/reflexology/acupuncture and homeopathy were similar across age groups. Higher education, Black ethnicity, MHT or previous oral contraceptive pill use were associated with higher CAM/NPI use. Women assessed as being less hopeful about their future were less likely to use CAM/NPI.

CONCLUSION

One in four postmenopausal women reported ever-use of CAM therapies/NPI for menopausal symptom relief, with lower use reported by older women. Higher levels of education and previous MHT use were positive predictors of CAM/NPI use. UKCTOCS Trial registration: ISRCTN22488978.

The role of apolipoprotein N-acyl transferase, Lnt, in the lipidation of factor H binding protein of Neisseria meningitidis strain MC58 and its potential as a drug target

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The level of cell surface expression of the meningococcal vaccine antigen, Factor H binding protein (FHbp) varies between and within strains and this limits the breadth of strains that can be targeted by FHbp-based vaccines. The molecular pathway controlling expression of FHbp at the cell surface, including its lipidation, sorting to the outer membrane and export, and the potential regulation of this pathway have not been investigated until now. This knowledge will aid our evaluation of FHbp vaccines.

EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH

A meningococcal transposon library was screened by whole cell immuno-dot blotting using an anti-FHbp antibody to identify a mutant with reduced binding and the disrupted gene was determined.

KEY RESULTS

In a mutant with markedly reduced binding, the transposon was located in the lnt gene which encodes apolipoprotein N-acyl transferase, Lnt, responsible for the addition of the third fatty acid to apolipoproteins prior to their sorting to the outer membrane. We provide data indicating that in the Lnt mutant, FHbp is diacylated and its expression within the cell is reduced 10 fold, partly due to inhibition of transcription. Furthermore the Lnt mutant showed 64 fold and 16 fold increase in susceptibility to rifampicin and ciprofloxacin respectively.

CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS

We speculate that the inefficient sorting of diacylated FHbp in the meningococcus results in its accumulation in the periplasm inducing an envelope stress response to down-regulate its expression. We propose Lnt as a potential novel drug target for combination therapy with antibiotics.

LINKED ARTICLES

This article is part of a themed section on Drug Metabolism and Antibiotic Resistance in Micro-organisms. To view the other articles in this section visit http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/bph.v174.14/issuetoc.

Fathers' experiences of living with cancer: a phenomenological study

There is a paucity of knowledge about fathers' experiences of cancer. This study explored the experiences of fathers diagnosed and living with cancer while also having parental responsibility for children. A hermeneutic phenomenological approach guided the study. Data were generated through 22 in-depth interviews with 10 fathers throughout Northern Ireland. The findings evidenced that fathers' identities are challenged and frequently re-shaped by the cancer experience, in many cases leading to an improved lifestyle behaviour. Heightened engagement with their children can provide a protective effect from the illness. On the other hand a lack of involvement led to frustration and low mood. The findings also demonstrated that father/child relationships were adversely affected by the social complexities that exist in the variances and diversity of fathers parenting roles and status. This knowledge contributes to our understanding of the complex relationships of fathers in non-traditional roles. It extends our understanding of how, when stereotyped gendered roles are ascribed to fathers it can impact on a fathers' ability to fulfil the traditional breadwinner's role. This is knowledge that will inform health care professionals and enable them to provide gendered-sensitive care that takes account of the masculine psychological responses that can shape the cancer experience.

Glycaemic control and lipid concentrations in a cohort of people with diabetes over 7 years of follow-up: a regional audit of diabetes care in the UK

AIM

To determine changes in glycaemic control and lipids over time since the introduction of the Quality and Outcomes Framework.

METHODS

In adults with diabetes (Hampshire, UK), HbA1c and lipid measurements were retrieved from a regional National Health Service biochemical database in 2006 and 2013 and analysed using anova and logistic regression modelling.

RESULTS

In 2006, 8568 people with diabetes were identified. In 2013, 5815 had follow-up data, 1207 people were lost to follow-up and 1546 had died. At baseline, HbA1c concentrations were 62.1 ± 16.1, 64.7 ± 16.7 and 64.5 ± 17.6 mmol/mol for those with follow-up data, those lost to follow-up and those who died, respectively. The mean age was 60.2 ± 14.5, 57.6 ± 18.0 and 73.9 ± 10.5 years, respectively, for the three groups. Total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations were similar between groups. The mean HbA1c concentration for those with complete follow-up data was 62.1 ± 16.1 mmol/mol in 2006 and 61.7 ± 17.3 mmol/mol in 2013. Quality and Outcomes Framework targets for cholesterol (< 5 mmol/l) were achieved by 79% of people in 2006 and 83% in 2013 (P < 0.001). Baseline age and HbA1c were associated with death at follow-up: the odds ratio per year increase in baseline age was 1.10 (95% CI 1.09-1.10; P < 0.001) and per unit increase in HbA1c it was 1.02 (95% CI 1.02-1.03; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Glycaemic control showed remarkable stability over 7 years of follow-up, despite increasing patient age and duration of diabetes. More patients achieved lipid targets in 2013 than in 2006. Although baseline HbA1c was a predictor of death at follow-up, baseline HbA1c differed little between survivors, non-survivors and those lost to follow-up.

Quality assurance and its impact on ovarian visualization rates in the multicenter United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS)

OBJECTIVE

To describe the quality assurance (QA) processes and their impact on visualization of postmenopausal ovaries in the ultrasound arm of a multicenter screening trial for ovarian cancer.

METHODS

In the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening, 50 639 women aged 50-74 years were randomized to the ultrasound arm and underwent annual transvaginal ultrasound (TVS) examinations. QA processes were developed during the course of the trial and included regular monitoring of the visualization rate (VR) of the right ovary. Non-subjective factors identified previously as impacting on VR of the right ovary were included in a generalized estimating equation model for binary outcomes to enable comparison of observed vs adjusted VR between individual sonographers who had undertaken > 1000 scans during the trial and comparison between centers. Observed and adjusted VRs of sonographers and centers were ranked according to the highest VR. Analysis of annual VRs of sonographers and those of the included centers was undertaken.

RESULTS

Between June 2001 and December 2010, 48 230 of 50 639 women attended one of 13 centers for a total of 270 035 annual TVS scans. One or both ovaries were seen in 228 145 (84.5%) TVS scans. The right ovary was seen on 196 426 (72.7%) of the scans. For the 78 sonographers included in the model, the median difference between observed and adjusted VR was -0.7% (range, -7.9 to 5.9%) and the median change in VR rank after adjustment was 3 (range, 0-18). For the 13 centers, the median difference between observed and adjusted VR was -0.5% (range, -2.2 to 1%), with no change in ranking after adjustment. The median adjusted VR was 73% (interquartile range (IQR), 65-82%) for sonographers and 74.7% (IQR, 67.1-79.0%) for centers. Despite the increasing age of the women being scanned, there was a steady decrease in the number of sonographers with VR < 60% (21.4% in 2002 vs 2.0% in 2010) and an increase in sonographers with VR > 80% (14.3% in 2002 vs 40.8% in 2010). The median VR of the centers increased from 65.5% (range, 55.7-81.0%) in 2001 to 80.3% (range, 74.5-90.9%) in 2010.

CONCLUSIONS

A robust QA program can improve visualization of postmenopausal ovaries and is an essential component of ultrasound-based ovarian cancer screening trials. While VR should be adjusted for non-subjective factors that impact on ovarian visualization, subjective factors are likely to be the largest contributors to differences in VR.