Multiorgan MRI findings after hospitalisation with COVID-19 in the UK (C-MORE): a prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study

INTRODUCTION

The multiorgan impact of moderate to severe coronavirus infections in the post-acute phase is still poorly understood. We aimed to evaluate the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities after hospitalisation with COVID-19, evaluate their determinants, and explore associations with patient-related outcome measures.

METHODS

In a prospective, UK-wide, multicentre MRI follow-up study (C-MORE), adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital following COVID-19 who were included in Tier 2 of the Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) and contemporary controls with no evidence of previous COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibody negative) underwent multiorgan MRI (lungs, heart, brain, liver, and kidneys) with quantitative and qualitative assessment of images and clinical adjudication when relevant. Individuals with end-stage renal failure or contraindications to MRI were excluded. Participants also underwent detailed recording of symptoms, and physiological and biochemical tests. The primary outcome was the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities (two or more organs) relative to controls, with further adjustments for potential confounders. The C-MORE study is ongoing and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04510025.

FINDINGS

Of 2710 participants in Tier 2 of PHOSP-COVID, 531 were recruited across 13 UK-wide C-MORE sites. After exclusions, 259 C-MORE patients (mean age 57 years [SD 12]; 158 [61%] male and 101 [39%] female) who were discharged from hospital with PCR-confirmed or clinically diagnosed COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and Nov 1, 2021, and 52 non-COVID-19 controls from the community (mean age 49 years [SD 14]; 30 [58%] male and 22 [42%] female) were included in the analysis. Patients were assessed at a median of 5·0 months (IQR 4·2-6·3) after hospital discharge. Compared with non-COVID-19 controls, patients were older, living with more obesity, and had more comorbidities. Multiorgan abnormalities on MRI were more frequent in patients than in controls (157 [61%] of 259 vs 14 [27%] of 52; p<0·0001) and independently associated with COVID-19 status (odds ratio [OR] 2·9 [95% CI 1·5-5·8]; padjusted=0·0023) after adjusting for relevant confounders. Compared with controls, patients were more likely to have MRI evidence of lung abnormalities (p=0·0001; parenchymal abnormalities), brain abnormalities (p<0·0001; more white matter hyperintensities and regional brain volume reduction), and kidney abnormalities (p=0·014; lower medullary T1 and loss of corticomedullary differentiation), whereas cardiac and liver MRI abnormalities were similar between patients and controls. Patients with multiorgan abnormalities were older (difference in mean age 7 years [95% CI 4-10]; mean age of 59·8 years [SD 11·7] with multiorgan abnormalities vs mean age of 52·8 years [11·9] without multiorgan abnormalities; p<0·0001), more likely to have three or more comorbidities (OR 2·47 [1·32-4·82]; padjusted=0·0059), and more likely to have a more severe acute infection (acute CRP >5mg/L, OR 3·55 [1·23-11·88]; padjusted=0·025) than those without multiorgan abnormalities. Presence of lung MRI abnormalities was associated with a two-fold higher risk of chest tightness, and multiorgan MRI abnormalities were associated with severe and very severe persistent physical and mental health impairment (PHOSP-COVID symptom clusters) after hospitalisation.

INTERPRETATION

After hospitalisation for COVID-19, people are at risk of multiorgan abnormalities in the medium term. Our findings emphasise the need for proactive multidisciplinary care pathways, with the potential for imaging to guide surveillance frequency and therapeutic stratification.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.

Predictors and moderators of the response of adults with intellectual disabilities and depression to behavioural activation and guided self-help therapies

BACKGROUND

No previous studies have reported predictors and moderators of outcome of psychological therapies for depression experienced by adults with intellectual disabilities (IDs). We investigated baseline variables as outcome predictors and moderators based on a randomised controlled trial where behavioural activation was compared with guided self-help.

METHODS

This study was an exploratory secondary data analysis of data collected during a randomised clinical trial. Participants (n = 161) were randomised to behavioural activation or guided self-help and followed up for 12 months. Pre-treatment variables were included if they have previously been shown to be associated with an increased risk of having depression in adults with IDs or have been reported as a potential predictor or moderator of outcome of treatment for depression with psychological therapies. The primary outcome measure, the Glasgow Depression Scale for Adults with Learning Disabilities (GDS-LD), was used as the dependant variable in mixed effects regression analyses testing for predictors and moderators of outcome, with baseline GDS-LD, treatment group, study centre and antidepressant use as fixed effects, and therapist as a random effect.

RESULTS

Higher baseline anxiety (mean difference in outcome associated with a 1 point increase in anxiety 0.164, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.031, 0.297; P = 0.016), lower performance intelligence quotient (IQ) (mean difference in outcome associated with a 1 point increase in IQ 0.145, 95% CI 0.009, 0.280; P = 0.037) and hearing impairment (mean difference 3.449, 95% CI 0.466, 6.432; P = 0.024) were predictors of poorer outcomes, whilst greater severity of depressive symptoms at baseline (mean difference in outcome associated with 1 point increase in depression -0.160, 95% CI -0.806, -0.414; P < 0.001), higher expectation of change (mean difference in outcome associated with a 1 point increase in expectation of change -1.013, 95% CI -1.711, -0.314; p 0.005) and greater percentage of therapy sessions attended (mean difference in outcome with 1 point increase in percentage of sessions attended -0.058, 95% CI -0.099, -0.016; P = 0.007) were predictors of more positive outcomes for treatment after adjusting for randomised group allocation. The final model included severity of depressive and anxiety symptoms, lower WASI performance IQ subscale, hearing impairment, higher expectation of change and percentage of therapy sessions attended and explained 35.3% of the variance in the total GDS-LD score at 12 months (R2  = 0.353, F4, 128  = 17.24, P < 0.001). There is no evidence that baseline variables had a moderating effect on outcome for treatment with behavioural activation or guided self-help.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that baseline variables may be useful predictors of outcomes of psychological therapies for adults with IDs. Further research is required to examine the value of these potential predictors. However, our findings suggest that therapists consider how baseline variables may enable them to tailor their therapeutic approach when using psychological therapies to treat depression experienced by adults with IDs.

Use of Advanced Flexible Modeling Approaches for Survival Extrapolation from Early Follow-up Data in two Nivolumab Trials in Advanced NSCLC with Extended Follow-up

OBJECTIVES

Immuno-oncology (IO) therapies are often associated with delayed responses that are deep and durable, manifesting as long-term survival benefits in patients with metastatic cancer. Complex hazard functions arising from IO treatments may limit the accuracy of extrapolations from standard parametric models (SPMs). We evaluated the ability of flexible parametric models (FPMs) to improve survival extrapolations using data from 2 trials involving patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC).

METHODS

Our analyses used consecutive database locks (DBLs) at 2-, 3-, and 5-y minimum follow-up from trials evaluating nivolumab versus docetaxel in patients with pretreated metastatic squamous (CheckMate-017) and nonsquamous (CheckMate-057) NSCLC. For each DBL, SPMs, as well as 3 FPMs-landmark response models (LRMs), mixture cure models (MCMs), and Bayesian multiparameter evidence synthesis (B-MPES)-were estimated on nivolumab overall survival (OS). The performance of each parametric model was assessed by comparing milestone restricted mean survival times (RMSTs) and survival probabilities with results obtained from externally validated SPMs.

RESULTS

For the 2- and 3-y DBLs of both trials, all models tended to underestimate 5-y OS. Predictions from nonvalidated SPMs fitted to the 2-y DBLs were highly unreliable, whereas extrapolations from FPMs were much more consistent between models fitted to successive DBLs. For CheckMate-017, in which an apparent survival plateau emerges in the 3-y DBL, MCMs fitted to this DBL estimated 5-y OS most accurately (11.6% v. 12.3% observed), and long-term predictions were similar to those from the 5-y validated SPM (20-y RMST: 30.2 v. 30.5 mo). For CheckMate-057, where there is no clear evidence of a survival plateau in the early DBLs, only B-MPES was able to accurately predict 5-y OS (14.1% v. 14.0% observed [3-y DBL]).

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate that the use of FPMs for modeling OS in NSCLC patients from early follow-up data can yield accurate estimates for RMST observed with longer follow-up and provide similar long-term extrapolations to externally validated SPMs based on later data cuts. B-MPES generated reasonable predictions even when fitted to the 2-y DBLs of the studies, whereas MCMs were more reliant on longer-term data to estimate a plateau and therefore performed better from 3 y. Generally, LRM extrapolations were less reliable than those from alternative FPMs and validated SPMs but remained superior to nonvalidated SPMs. Our work demonstrates the potential benefits of using advanced parametric models that incorporate external data sources, such as B-MPES and MCMs, to allow for accurate evaluation of treatment clinical and cost-effectiveness from trial data with limited follow-up.

HIGHLIGHTS

Flexible advanced parametric modeling methods can provide improved survival extrapolations for immuno-oncology cost-effectiveness in health technology assessments from early clinical trial data that better anticipate extended follow-up.Advantages include leveraging additional observable trial data, the systematic integration of external data, and more detailed modeling of underlying processes.Bayesian multiparameter evidence synthesis performed particularly well, with well-matched external data.Mixture cure models also performed well but may require relatively longer follow-up to identify an emergent plateau, depending on the specific setting.Landmark response models offered marginal benefits in this scenario and may require greater numbers in each response group and/or increased follow-up to support improved extrapolation within each subgroup.

Clinical characteristics with inflammation profiling of long COVID and association with 1-year recovery following hospitalisation in the UK: a prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

No effective pharmacological or non-pharmacological interventions exist for patients with long COVID. We aimed to describe recovery 1 year after hospital discharge for COVID-19, identify factors associated with patient-perceived recovery, and identify potential therapeutic targets by describing the underlying inflammatory profiles of the previously described recovery clusters at 5 months after hospital discharge.

METHODS

The Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) is a prospective, longitudinal cohort study recruiting adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital with COVID-19 across the UK. Recovery was assessed using patient-reported outcome measures, physical performance, and organ function at 5 months and 1 year after hospital discharge, and stratified by both patient-perceived recovery and recovery cluster. Hierarchical logistic regression modelling was performed for patient-perceived recovery at 1 year. Cluster analysis was done using the clustering large applications k-medoids approach using clinical outcomes at 5 months. Inflammatory protein profiling was analysed from plasma at the 5-month visit. This study is registered on the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN10980107, and recruitment is ongoing.

FINDINGS

2320 participants discharged from hospital between March 7, 2020, and April 18, 2021, were assessed at 5 months after discharge and 807 (32·7%) participants completed both the 5-month and 1-year visits. 279 (35·6%) of these 807 patients were women and 505 (64·4%) were men, with a mean age of 58·7 (SD 12·5) years, and 224 (27·8%) had received invasive mechanical ventilation (WHO class 7-9). The proportion of patients reporting full recovery was unchanged between 5 months (501 [25·5%] of 1965) and 1 year (232 [28·9%] of 804). Factors associated with being less likely to report full recovery at 1 year were female sex (odds ratio 0·68 [95% CI 0·46-0·99]), obesity (0·50 [0·34-0·74]) and invasive mechanical ventilation (0·42 [0·23-0·76]). Cluster analysis (n=1636) corroborated the previously reported four clusters: very severe, severe, moderate with cognitive impairment, and mild, relating to the severity of physical health, mental health, and cognitive impairment at 5 months. We found increased inflammatory mediators of tissue damage and repair in both the very severe and the moderate with cognitive impairment clusters compared with the mild cluster, including IL-6 concentration, which was increased in both comparisons (n=626 participants). We found a substantial deficit in median EQ-5D-5L utility index from before COVID-19 (retrospective assessment; 0·88 [IQR 0·74-1·00]), at 5 months (0·74 [0·64-0·88]) to 1 year (0·75 [0·62-0·88]), with minimal improvements across all outcome measures at 1 year after discharge in the whole cohort and within each of the four clusters.

INTERPRETATION

The sequelae of a hospital admission with COVID-19 were substantial 1 year after discharge across a range of health domains, with the minority in our cohort feeling fully recovered. Patient-perceived health-related quality of life was reduced at 1 year compared with before hospital admission. Systematic inflammation and obesity are potential treatable traits that warrant further investigation in clinical trials.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.

POS0734 EXTRAPOLATION OF LONG-TERM OUTCOMES IN SYSTEMIC LUPUS ERYTHEMATOSUS: REPLICATING A HOPKINS LUPUS COHORT ANALYSIS WITH THE SYSTEMIC LUPUS INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATING CLINICS (SLICC) INCEPTION COHORT

Background:

A disease model of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) that predicts short-term outcomes (disease activity and prednisone use) and links them to long-term outcomes (accrual of organ damage and mortality) was previously developed in a single center SLE cohort (Johns Hopkins [JH]) to support health economic analyses (Watson 2015), which has not been comprehensively replicated in other cohorts or contexts.

Objectives:

As part of an effort to develop and refine this existing disease model, the aim of this study was to replicate the previously estimated network of risk equations for short- and long-term outcomes in the SLICC Inception Cohort, an international cohort of patients (33 centers,11 countries).

Methods:

The SLICC Inception Cohort enrolled patients fulfilling ACR Classification Criteria for SLE within 15 months of diagnosis from 1999-2011 with annual follow-up through April 2020. The network of risk equations included two linear random effects models to predict (1) change in annual average Systemic Lupus Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI) score based on patient characteristics and the presence of renal, hematological, and immunological involvement in the prior year and (2) average annual prednisone dose based on SLEDAI score in the same year. These equations were then linked to parametric survival models that predicted time to the occurrence of organ damage (system-specific based on the ACR/SLICC Damage Index) and mortality. We compared model performance between the SLICC Cohort and the original analysis from the JH Cohort.

Results:

In comparison to the JH cohort (N=1354), the SLICC cohort (N=1697) had a smaller fraction of patients of African descent (39% vs 17%) and shorter disease duration at entry (4.8 vs 0.5 years). In the first equation predicting change in annual SLEDAI score, predictors were generally aligned with the same direction and significance, with the exception of renal involvement in the prior period, which had a positive association with change in SLEDAI in the SLICC cohort but was negatively associated in the JH cohort (Table 1). The second equation predicting prednisone dose was also consistent with the original analysis showing a significant positive association between higher disease activity and prednisone use. In all of the parametric survival analyses (individual organ damage and mortality models), coefficients were generally in the same direction and magnitude, though some were no longer significant in the SLICC cohort.

Conclusion:

The relationships identified in the original analysis were broadly replicated in the SLICC Inception Cohort. Observed differences may reflect differences in the patient populations, structure of the two cohorts (prevalent vs inception), and frequency of visits (quarterly visits in the JH cohort vs annual visits with the SLICC cohort may more closely capture a decrease in SLEDAI associated with treatment specifically related to renal involvement). Additional analyses relaxing the requirement to completely align with the original structure are underway to further assess the predictive accuracy of these models.

References:

[1]Watson P, et al. Rheumatology (Oxford). 2015;54(4):623-32.

JH Cohort(N=1354)SLICC Cohort(N=1697)Female, %92.988.8African descent, %38.816.7Disease duration at entry, mean (SD), years4.8 (6.3)0.5 (0.3)SLEDAI at first visit, mean (SD)3.7 (4.1)5.4 (5.4)Change in average annual SLEDAICoefficientCoefficientConstant1.491*5.762*Annual average SLEDAI in prior period−0.460*−0.755*Male gender−0.080−0.207Log transformation of age−0.241*−1.134*Renal involvement in prior period−0.301*0.627*African descent0.383*0.126Increased DNA binding in prior period0.276*0.939*Low complement in prior period0.484*0.775*Hematological involvement in prior period0.104−0.025Anemia in prior period0.152**0.144Associated annual average prednisone dose (mg/day)Constant3.475*2.738*SLEDAI in same period0.777*0.648*

*p<0.001; **p<0.05

Acknowledgements:

We acknowledge the support on this abstract of the following investigators of the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics:

John Hanly - john.hanly@nshealth.ca

Caroline Gordon - p.c.gordon@bham.ac.uk

Sang-Cheol Bae - scbae@hanyang.ac.kr

Juanita Romero-Diaz - juanita.romerodiaz@gmail.com

Jorge Sanchez-Guerrero - jorge.sanchez-guerrero@uhn.ca

Sasha Bernatsky - sasha.bernatsky@mcgill.ca

Ann Clarke - aeclarke@ucalgary.ca

Daniel Wallace - dwallace@ucla.edu/danielwallac@gmail.com

David Isenberg - d.isenberg@ucl.ac.uk

Anisur Rahman - anisur.rahman@ucl.ac.uk

Joan Merril - JTMmail@aol.com

Paul Fortin - paul.fortin@crchudequebec.ulaval.ca

Dafna Gladman - dafna.gladman@utoronto.ca

Murray Urowitz - m.urowitz@utoronto.ca

Ian Bruce - ian.bruce@manchester.ac.uk

Michelle Petri - mpetri@jhmi.edu

Ellen Ginzler - ellen.ginzler@downstate.edu

MA Dooley - Mary_Dooley@med.unc.edu

Rosalind Ramsey-Godman - rgramsey@northwestern.edu

Susan Manzi - susan.manzi@ahn.org; Susanmanzi@gmail.com

Andreas Jonsen - andreas.jonsen@med.lu.se

Graciela Alarcon - galarcon@uab.edu

Ronald van Vollenhoven - r.vanvollenhoven@amsterdamumc.nl

Cynthia Aranow - CAranow@Northwell.edu

Meggan Mackay – mmackay@northwell.edu

Guillermo Ruiz-Irastorza - r.irastorza@outlook.es

Sam Lim - sslim@emory.edu

Murat Inanc - drinanc@istanbul.edu.tr; minanc2008@gmail.com

Kenneth Kalunian - kkalunian@ucsd.edu

Soren Jacobsen - sj@dadlnet.dk

Christine Peschken - christine.peschken@umanitoba.ca

Diane Kamen - kamend@musc.edu

Anca Askanase - ada20@columbia.edu

Disclosure of Interests:

Ann E Clarke Consultant of: BMS, AstraZeneca, GSK, and Exagen Diagnostics., Yvan St-Pierre: None declared, Victoria Paly: None declared, Ian N. Bruce Speakers bureau: GSK, UCB, Consultant of: BMS, Eli Lilly, GSK, Astra Zeneca, Merck Serono; UCB, ILTOO, Aurinia, Grant/research support from: Genzyme/Sanofi, GSK, Roche, UCB, Chiara Malmberg: None declared, Andrew Briggs Speakers bureau: Alexion, AstraZeneca, Bayer, BMS, Daiichi Sankyo, Eisai, Gilead, GSK, Kite, Merck, Novartis, Rhythm, Roche, Sanofi, Takeda, Consultant of: Alexion, AstraZeneca, Bayer, BMS, Daiichi Sankyo, Eisai, Gilead, GSK, Kite, Merck, Novartis, Rhythm, Roche, Sanofi, Takeda, Yuanhui Zhang Shareholder of: Bristol Myers Squibb., Employee of: Bristol Myers Squibb., Jiyoon Choi Shareholder of: JNJ., Employee of: BMS, Alan Brennan Consultant of: Alan Brennan is a paid consultant on advisory boards regarding cost-effectiveness modelling., Grant/research support from: Alan Brennan received research grants.

Achieving Educational Change through Technical Assistance

This article reports on a survey of recipients of 51 technical assistance projects in 18 states and territories provided by the Teaching Research Assistance to Children Experiencing Sensory Impairments project. On the basis of the respondents’ assessments of factors that result in the most effective provision of technical assistance by consultants in educational settings, the authors present a systematic approach to the achievement of desired individual, programmatic, and systemwide changes through technical assistance.

Type 2 diabetes remission: economic evaluation of the DiRECT/Counterweight-Plus weight management programme within a primary care randomized controlled trial

AIM

The Counterweight-Plus weight management programme achieved 46% remission of Type 2 diabetes at 1 year in the DiRECT trial. We estimated the implementation costs of the Counterweight-Plus programme and its 1-year cost-effectiveness in terms of diabetes remission, compared with usual care, from the UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective.

METHODS

Within-trial total costs included programme set-up and running costs (practitioner appointment visits, low-energy formula diet sachets and training), oral anti-diabetes and anti-hypertensive medications, and healthcare contacts. Total costs were calculated for aggregated resource use for each participant and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were based on 1000 non-parametric bootstrap iterations.

RESULTS

One-year programme costs under trial conditions were estimated at £1137 per participant (95% CI £1071, £1205). The intervention led to a significant cost-saving of £120 (95% CI £78, £163) for the oral anti-diabetes drugs and £14 (95% CI £7.9, £22) for anti-hypertensive medications compared with the control. Deducting the cost-savings of all healthcare contacts from the intervention cost resulted an incremental cost of £982 (95% CI £732, £1258). Cost per 1 year of diabetes remission was £2359 (95% CI £1668, £3250).

CONCLUSIONS

Remission of Type 2 diabetes within 1-year can be achieved at a cost below the annual cost of diabetes (including complications). Providing a reasonable proportion of remissions can be maintained over time, with multiple medical gains expected, as well as immediate social benefits, there is a case for shifting resources within diabetes care budgets to offer support for people with Type 2 diabetes to attempt remission. (Clinical Trial Registry No.: ISRCTN03267836).

Use of The Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health survey module for estimating the population prevalence of musculoskeletal pain: findings from the Solomon Islands

Background

Musculoskeletal (MSK) conditions are common and the biggest global cause of physical disability. The objective of the current study was to estimate the population prevalence of MSK-related pain using a standardized global MSK survey module for the first time.

Methods

A MSK survey module was constructed by the Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health Surveillance Taskforce and the Global Burden of Disease MSK Expert Group. The MSK module was included in the 2015 Solomon Islands Demographic and Health Survey. The sampling design was a two-stage stratified, nationally representative sample of households.

Results

A total of 9214 participants aged 15–49 years were included in the analysis. The age-standardized four-week prevalence of activity-limiting low back pain, neck pain, and hip and/or knee pain was 16.8, 8.9, and 10.8%, respectively. Prevalence tended to increase with age, and be higher in those with lower levels of education.

Conclusions

Prevalence of activity-limited pain was high in all measured MSK sites. This indicates an important public health issue for the Solomon Islands that needs to be addressed. Efforts should be underpinned by integration with strategies for other non-communicable diseases, aging, disability, and rehabilitation, and with other sectors such as social services, education, industry, and agriculture. Primary prevention strategies and strategies aimed at self-management are likely to have the greatest and most cost-effective impact.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12891-018-2198-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Development and validation of a cost-utility model for Type 1 diabetes mellitus

AIMS

To develop a health economic model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of new interventions for Type 1 diabetes mellitus by their effects on long-term complications (measured through mean HbA1c ) while capturing the impact of treatment on hypoglycaemic events.

METHODS

Through a systematic review, we identified complications associated with Type 1 diabetes mellitus and data describing the long-term incidence of these complications. An individual patient simulation model was developed and included the following complications: cardiovascular disease, peripheral neuropathy, microalbuminuria, end-stage renal disease, proliferative retinopathy, ketoacidosis, cataract, hypoglycemia and adverse birth outcomes. Risk equations were developed from published cumulative incidence data and hazard ratios for the effect of HbA1c , age and duration of diabetes. We validated the model by comparing model predictions with observed outcomes from studies used to build the model (internal validation) and from other published data (external validation). We performed illustrative analyses for typical patient cohorts and a hypothetical intervention.

RESULTS

Model predictions were within 2% of expected values in the internal validation and within 8% of observed values in the external validation (percentages represent absolute differences in the cumulative incidence).

CONCLUSIONS

The model utilized high-quality, recent data specific to people with Type 1 diabetes mellitus. In the model validation, results deviated less than 8% from expected values.

Integrated care pathways for airway diseases (AIRWAYS-ICPs)

The objective of Integrated Care Pathways for Airway Diseases (AIRWAYS-ICPs) is to launch a collaboration to develop multi-sectoral care pathways for chronic respiratory diseases in European countries and regions. AIRWAYS-ICPs has strategic relevance to the European Union Health Strategy and will add value to existing public health knowledge by: 1) proposing a common framework of care pathways for chronic respiratory diseases, which will facilitate comparability and trans-national initiatives; 2) informing cost-effective policy development, strengthening in particular those on smoking and environmental exposure; 3) aiding risk stratification in chronic disease patients, using a common strategy; 4) having a significant impact on the health of citizens in the short term (reduction of morbidity, improvement of education in children and of work in adults) and in the long-term (healthy ageing); 5) proposing a common simulation tool to assist physicians; and 6) ultimately reducing the healthcare burden (emergency visits, avoidable hospitalisations, disability and costs) while improving quality of life. In the longer term, the incidence of disease may be reduced by innovative prevention strategies. AIRWAYSICPs was initiated by Area 5 of the Action Plan B3 of the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing. All stakeholders are involved (health and social care, patients, and policy makers).

A pilot study of concurrent lead and cotinine screening for childhood tobacco smoke exposure: effect on parental smoking

PURPOSE

To investigate whether a biomarker screening approach for tobacco smoke exposure (TSE) conducted concurrently with lead screening at well-child visits would increase parental smoking cessation and implementation of home smoking restrictions.

DESIGN

Observational, quasi-experimental.

SETTING

Pediatric clinic in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

SUBJECTS

Eighty parents who smoked and their children presenting for well-child visits.

INTERVENTION

Children in the intervention group had serum cotinine measured with lead screening. Laboratory results were sent to providers and parents and a counselor proactively contacted parents to offer an eight-session telephone intervention to help parents stop smoking. The comparison group, a historical control, received usual care.

MEASURES

Parental smoking, engagement in tobacco treatment, and home and car smoking policies 8 weeks later.

ANALYSIS

Mean/standard deviation for continuous data or frequency/percentage for categorical data.

RESULTS

Eighty-four percent of eligible parents agreed to have their child tested for TSE along with lead testing. Measurable cotinine was identified in 93% of children. More parents in the intervention group received tobacco treatment than in the comparison group (74% vs. 0%) and more parents reported 7-day point-prevalent abstinence from smoking at 8 weeks (29% vs. 3%).

CONCLUSION

These data demonstrate the feasibility of adding cotinine measurement to routine well-child lead screening to document TSE in small children. Data suggest providing this information to parents increases engagement in tobacco treatment and prompts smoking cessation.

Predicted impact of extending the screening interval for diabetic retinopathy: the Scottish Diabetic Retinopathy Screening programme

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The aim of our study was to identify subgroups of patients attending the Scottish Diabetic Retinopathy Screening (DRS) programme who might safely move from annual to two yearly retinopathy screening.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of screening data from the DRS programme collected between 2005 and 2011 for people aged ≥12 years with type 1 or type 2 diabetes in Scotland. We used hidden Markov models to calculate the probabilities of transitions to referable diabetic retinopathy (referable background or proliferative retinopathy) or referable maculopathy.

RESULTS

The study included 155,114 individuals with no referable diabetic retinopathy or maculopathy at their first DRS examination and with one or more further DRS examinations. There were 11,275 incident cases of referable diabetic eye disease (9,204 referable maculopathy, 2,071 referable background or proliferative retinopathy). The observed transitions to referable background or proliferative retinopathy were lower for people with no visible retinopathy vs mild background retinopathy at their prior examination (respectively, 1.2% vs 8.1% for type 1 diabetes and 0.6% vs 5.1% for type 2 diabetes). The lowest probability for transitioning to referable background or proliferative retinopathy was among people with two consecutive screens showing no visible retinopathy, where the probability was <0.3% for type 1 and <0.2% for type 2 diabetes at 2 years.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Transition rates to referable diabetic eye disease were lowest among people with type 2 diabetes and two consecutive screens showing no visible retinopathy. If such people had been offered two yearly screening the DRS service would have needed to screen 40% fewer people in 2009.

The effect of deprivation and HbA1c on admission to hospital for diabetic ketoacidosis in type 1 diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Diabetic ketoacidosis is a potentially life-threatening complication of diabetes and has a strong relationship with HbA(1c). We examined how socioeconomic group affects the likelihood of admission to hospital for diabetic ketoacidosis.

METHODS

The Scottish Care Information - Diabetes Collaboration (SCI-DC), a dynamic national register of all cases of diagnosed diabetes in Scotland, was linked to national data on hospital admissions. We identified 24,750 people with type 1 diabetes between January 2005 and December 2007. We assessed the relationship between HbA(1c) and quintiles of deprivation with hospital admissions for diabetic ketoacidosis in people with type 1 diabetes adjusting for patient characteristics.

RESULTS

We identified 23,479 people with type 1 diabetes who had complete recording of covariates. Deprivation had a substantial effect on odds of admission to hospital for diabetic ketoacidosis (OR 4.51, 95% CI 3.73, 5.46 in the most deprived quintile compared with the least deprived). This effect persisted after the inclusion of HbA(1c) and other risk factors (OR 2.81, 95% CI 2.32, 3.39). Men had a reduced risk of admission to hospital for diabetic ketoacidosis (OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.63, 0.79) and those with a history of smoking had increased odds of admission to hospital for diabetic ketoacidosis by a factor of 1.55 (95% CI 1.36, 1.78).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Women, smokers, those with high HbA(1c) and those living in more deprived areas have an increased risk of admission to hospital for diabetic ketoacidosis. The effect of deprivation was present even after inclusion of other risk factors. This work highlights that those in poorer areas of the community with high HbA(1c) represent a group who might be usefully supported to try to reduce hospital admissions.

Inpatient costs for people with type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Scotland: a study from the Scottish Diabetes Research Network Epidemiology Group

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

The rising prevalence of diabetes worldwide has increased interest in the cost of diabetes. Inpatient costs for all people with diabetes in Scotland were investigated.

METHODS

The Scottish Care Information-Diabetes Collaboration (SCI-DC), a real-time clinical information system of almost all diagnosed cases of diabetes in Scotland, UK, was linked to data on all hospital admissions for people with diabetes. Inpatient stay costs were estimated using the 2007-2008 Scottish National Tariff. The probability of hospital admission and total annual cost of admissions were estimated in relation to age, sex, type of diabetes, history of vascular admission, HbA(1c), creatinine, body mass index and diabetes duration.

RESULTS

In Scotland during 2005-2007, 24,750 people with type 1 and 195,433 people with type 2 diabetes were identified, accounting for approximately 4.3% of the total Scottish population (5.1 million). The estimated total annual cost of admissions for all people diagnosed with type 1 and type 2 diabetes was £26 million and £275 million, respectively, approximately 12% of the total Scottish inpatient expenditure (£2.4 billion). Sex, increasing age, serum creatinine, previous vascular history and HbA(1c) (the latter differentially in type 1 and type 2) were all associated with likelihood and total annual cost of admission.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Diabetes inpatient expenditure accounted for 12% of the total Scottish inpatient expenditure, whilst people with diabetes account for 4.3% of the population. Of the modifiable risk factors, HbA(1c) was the most important driver of cost in type 1 diabetes.

Testing the children of HIV-positive mothers

We aimed to establish current practice regarding the testing of children of HIV-positive women in two centres in the South Yorkshire HIV Network, UK. Notes were reviewed from 59 women who attended clinic over a three-month period from 01 September 2009 to 30 November 2009. In our sample, only 29 of 52 (56%) children living in the UK who required testing had been HIV tested. Testing rates were high in preschool children (15/15) and fell with age to 2/11 (18%) in the 16-20 years age group. Uptake of testing for children of HIV-positive parents could potentially be improved if testing was incorporated into routine clinic practice as part of the package of care offered to a newly diagnosed individual.

Nodular herpes simplex virus-1-positive oral lesions as a manifestation of immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome

We describe a case of nodular oral herpes simplex virus-1-positive lesions consistent with immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome in a patient recently commenced on treatment for tuberculosis and HIV co-infection.

First Report of Tomato yellow leaf curl virus Infecting Tomato, Tomatillo, and Peppers in Guatemala

In Guatemala and other Central American countries, whitefly-transmitted geminiviruses (begomoviruses) cause economically important diseases of tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) and pepper (Capsicum annuum). Disease symptoms include stunted and distorted growth and leaf curling, crumpling, light green to yellow mosaic, purpling, and vein swelling. In Guatemala, at least eight bipartite begomovirus species infect tomato or peppers (1), but their role and relative importance is unclear. As part of an Integrated Pest Management strategy to manage these diseases, surveys for begomovirus symptoms in pepper and tomato have been conducted in the Salama Valley, Sanarate, and other locations since 2003, and begomoviruses were identified by squash blot hybridization, PCR and DNA sequencing. Beginning in 2006, a new type of symptom, stunted upright growth and upcurled leaves with yellowing of the margins and interveinal areas, was observed in tomato and tomatillo plants in the Salama Valley and Sanarate. These symptoms were similar to those induced by the exotic monopartite begomovirus Tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV). Evidence that TYLCV caused these symptoms came from positive results in high stringency squash blot hybridization tests with a TYLCV probe, and amplification of the expected size of ~0.3- and 2.8-kb fragments in PCR tests with TYLCV capsid protein (CP) gene and full-length component primer pairs, respectively (3). Sequence analyses of PCR-amplified CP fragments and portions of full-length fragments revealed 97 to 99% identity with isolates of TYLCV-Israel (TYLCV-IL). The complete nucleotide sequence of an isolate from the Salama Valley (GenBank Accession No. GU355941) was >99% identical to those of TYLCV-IL isolates from the Dominican Republic, Florida, and Cuba and ~97% identical to those of isolates from Mexico and California. Thus, this TYLCV-IL isolate (TYLCV-IL[GT:06]) was probably introduced from the Caribbean Region. To further characterize begomoviruses in the Salama Valley, leaf samples were collected from 44 and 118 tomato plants showing symptoms of begomovirus infection in March 2006 and 2007, respectively, and from 106 symptomatic pepper plants in March 2007. Begomovirus infection was confirmed in 42 of 44 and 93 of 118 of the tomato samples and 100 of 106 of the pepper samples based on PCR amplification of the expected size of ~0.6- and 1.1-kb DNA fragments with the begomovirus degenerate primers pairs AV494/AC1048 and PAL1v1978/PAR1c496, respectively (2,4). Sequence analyses of cloned PCR-amplified fragments revealed that 3 of the 44 and 16 of the 118 tomato samples collected in 2006 and 2007, respectively, and 9 of the 106 pepper samples were infected with TYLCV based on >97% identity with TYLCV-IL. In all samples, TYLCV was present in mixed infections with other begomoviruses. The introduction of TYLCV adds to the already high level of genetic complexity of bipartite begomovirus infection of tomatoes and peppers in Guatemala and will undoubtedly complicate disease management efforts. References: (1) M. K. Nakhla et al. Acta Hortic. 695:277, 2005. (2) M. R. Rojas et al. Plant Dis. 77:340, 1993. (3) R. Salati et al. Phytopathology 92:487, 2002. (4) S. D. Wyatt and J. Brown. Phytopathology 86:1288, 1996.

Clinical trials methods for evaluation of potential reduced exposure products

Potential reduced exposure products (PREPs) to tobacco toxicants may have promise in reducing tobacco-related morbidity or mortality or may promote greater harm to individuals or the population. Critical to determining the risks or benefits from these products are valid human clinical trial PREP assessment methods. Such an assessment involves determining the effects of these products on biomarkers of exposure and effect, which serve as proxies for harm, and assessing the potential for consumer uptake and abuse of the product. This article identifies critical methodologic issues associated with PREP assessments, reviews the methods that have been used to assess PREPs, and describes the strengths and limitations of these methods. Additionally, recommendations are provided for clinical trial PREP assessment methods and future research directions in this area based on this review and on the deliberations from a National Cancer Institute sponsored Clinical Trials PREP Methods Workshop.

Presence of the carcinogen N'-nitrosonornicotine in the urine of some users of oral nicotine replacement therapy products

N'-nitrosonornicotine (NNN) is a strong carcinogen present in unburned tobacco and cigarette smoke. We here analyze data obtained in two studies, in which a biomarker of exposure to NNN--the sum of NNN and its pyridine-N-glucuronide, called total NNN--was quantified in the urine of people who had stopped smoking and used various nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) products. In 13 of 34 nicotine gum or lozenge users from both studies, total NNN at one or more time points after biochemically confirmed smoking cessation was comparable with, or considerably higher than, the baseline levels. For most of the subjects who used the nicotine patch as a smoking cessation aid, urinary total NNN at all post-quit time points was <37% of their mean baseline levels. These results indicate that endogenous formation of significant amounts of NNN may occur sporadically in some users of oral NRT. Given the carcinogenicity of NNN and the frequent use of nicotine gum as a smoking cessation aid, further studies are needed so that preventive measures can be developed.

Effects of smoking cessation on eight urinary tobacco carcinogen and toxicant biomarkers

We determined the persistence at various times (3, 7, 14, 21, 28, 42, and 56 days) of eight tobacco smoke carcinogen and toxicant biomarkers in the urine of 17 smokers who stopped smoking. The biomarkers were 1-hydroxy-2-(N-acetylcysteinyl)-3-butene (1) and 1-(N-acetylcysteinyl)-2-hydroxy-3-butene (2) [collectively called MHBMA for monohydroxybutyl mercapturic acid] and 1,2-dihydroxy-4-(N-acetylcysteinyl)butane (3) [DHBMA for dihydroxybutyl mercapturic acid], metabolites of 1,3-butadiene; 1-(N-acetylcysteinyl)-propan-3-ol (4, HPMA for 3-hydroxypropyl mercapturic acid), a metabolite of acrolein; 2-(N-acetylcysteinyl)butan-4-ol (5, HBMA for 4-hydroxybut-2-yl mercapturic acid), a metabolite of crotonaldehyde; (N-acetylcysteinyl)benzene (6, SPMA for S-phenyl mercapturic acid), a metabolite of benzene; (N-acetylcysteinyl)ethanol (7, HEMA for 2-hydroxyethyl mercapturic acid), a metabolite of ethylene oxide; 1-hydroxypyrene (8) and its glucuronides (1-HOP), metabolites of pyrene; and 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanol (9) and its glucuronides (total NNAL), a biomarker of exposure to 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone (NNK). These biomarkers represent some of the major carcinogens and toxicants in cigarette smoke: 1,3-butadiene, acrolein, crotonaldehyde, benzene, ethylene oxide, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), and NNK. With the exception of DHBMA, levels of which did not change after cessation of smoking, all other biomarkers decreased significantly after 3 days of cessation (P < 0.001). The decreases in MHBMA, HPMA, HBMA, SPMA, and HEMA were rapid, nearly reaching their ultimate levels (81-91% reduction) after 3 days. The decrease in total NNAL was gradual, reaching 92% after 42 days, while reduction in 1-HOP was variable among subjects to about 50% of baseline. Since DHBMA did not change upon smoking cessation, there appear to be sources of this metabolite other than 1,3-butadiene. The results of this study demonstrate that the tobacco smoke carcinogen/toxicant biomarkers MHBMA, HPMA, HBMA, SPMA, HEMA, 1-HOP, and NNAL are related to smoking and are good indicators of the impact of smoking on human exposure to 1,3-butadiene, acrolein, crotonaldehyde, benzene, ethylene oxide, PAH, and NNK.

Uterine artery embolisation or hysterectomy for the treatment of symptomatic uterine fibroids: a cost-utility analysis of the HOPEFUL study

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the relative cost-effectiveness of uterine artery embolisation (UAE) and hysterectomy in women with symptomatic uterine fibroids from the perspective of the UK NHS.

DESIGN

Cost-utility analysis.

SETTING

Eighteen UK NHS hospital trusts. POPULATION OR SAMPLE Women who underwent UAE (n= 649; average follow up of 8.6 years) or hysterectomy (n= 459; average follow up of 4.6 years) for the treatments of symptomatic fibroids.

METHODS

A probabilistic decision model was carried out based on data from a large comparative cohort and the literature. The two interventions were evaluated over the time horizon from the initial procedure to menopause. Extensive sensitivity analysis was carried out to test model assumptions and parameter uncertainties.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Costs of procedures and complications and quality of life expressed as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs).

RESULTS

Overall, UAE was associated with lower mean cost (2536 pounds sterling versus 3282 pounds sterling) and a small reduction in quality of life (8.203 versus 8.241 QALYs) when compared with hysterectomy. However, when the quality of life associated with the conservation of the uterus was incorporated in the model, UAE was shown to be the dominant strategy--lower costs and greater QALYs.

CONCLUSIONS

UAE is a less expensive option to the health service compared with hysterectomy, even when the costs of repeat procedures and associated complications are factored in. The quality of life implications in the short term are also predicted to favour UAE; however, this advantage may be eroded over time as women undergo additional procedures to deal with recurrent fibroids. Given the hysterectomy is the current standard treatment for symptomatic fibroids, offering women UAE as an alternative treatment for fibroids is likely to be highly cost-effective for those women who prefer uterus-conserving treatment.

Cost-effectiveness of tositumomab and iodine I-131 tositumomab (Bexxar therapeutic regimen (BTR)), in treatment of non- Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL)

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Background: BTR has demonstrated efficacy in NHL patients and it has potential to prolong time to progression (TTP) in relapsed/refractory, low grade, follicular, or transformed NHL. This study assessed effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of BTR compared to alternative therapies in first, second, and third line NHL therapy. Methods: Time-to-event models were constructed with 2 events: progression and death. Patient data from 8 BTR clinical trials were combined to fit Weibull models for TTP and overall survival (OS) by including FLIPI covariates. Estimates for BTR were compared with estimates for alternatives from Weibull models fitted to published TTP and BTR OS data by lines of therapy and measured in life-years (LY). Estimated pre-progression costs included drug costs, lab tests, monitoring, and adverse events; post progression costs included NHL costs until death, all valued in 2006 $US and discounted at 3%. Indirect comparisons yielded incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER=Δ cost/Δ LYs) in each line of therapy. Results: As observed in the table , cost of care estimates in BTR were often comparable with alternative therapies, but typically LY gain favored BTR. Mostly in first and third line, a BTR strategy had an ICER less than the cost-effectiveness threshold of $50,000 per LY gained. Conclusion: Overall, a BTR strategy has a favorable cost-effectiveness profile to alternative strategies including rituximab maintenance (RXM) in first, second, and third line NHL therapy. Results imply both a possible survival gain with early BTR use, and the cost-effectiveness of BTR. This modeling approach can aid in clinical decision making regarding the sequence and timing of therapy for patients with follicular NHL.

No significant financial relationships to disclose.

[Table: see text]

Cost-effectiveness of using prognostic information to select women with breast cancer for adjuvant systemic therapy

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the cost-effectiveness of using prognostic information to identify patients with breast cancer who should receive adjuvant therapy.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases from 1980 through to February 2002. A survey of clinical practice in UK cancer centres and units. Large retrospective dataset containing data on prognostic factors, treatments and outcomes for women with early breast cancer treated in Oxford.

REVIEW METHODS

Between six and nine databases were searched by an information expert. Evidence-based methods were used to review and select those studies and the quality of each included paper was assessed using standard assessment tools reported in the literature or piloted and developed for this study. A survey of clinical practice in UK cancer centres and units was carried out to ensure that conclusions drawn from the report could be implemented. These data, along with the information gathered in the systematic reviews, informed the methodological approach adopted for the health economic modelling. An illustrative framework was developed for incorporating patient-level prediction within a health economic decision model. This framework was applied to a large retrospective dataset containing data on prognostic factors, treatments and outcomes for women with early breast cancer treated in Oxford. The data were used to estimate directly a parametric regression-based risk equation, from which a prognostic index was developed, and prognosis-specific estimates of the baseline breast cancer hazard could be observed. Published estimates of treatment effects, health service treatment costs and utilities were used to construct a decision analytic framework around this risk equation, thus enabling simulation of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of adjuvant therapy for all possible combinations of prognostic factors included in the model.

RESULTS

The lack of good-quality systematic reviews and well-conducted studies of prognostic factors in breast cancer is a striking finding. There are no registers of studies of prognostic factors or of reviews of prognostic studies. Many of the reviews used weak methods, primary studies are similar with poor methodology and reporting of results. In addition, there is much variation in patient populations, assay methods, analysis of results, definitions used and reporting of results. Most studies appear to be retrospective and some use inappropriate methods likely to inflate outcomes such as optimising cut points and failing to test the results in an independent population. Very few reviews used meta-analysis to conduct a pooled analysis and to provide an estimate of the average size of any association. Instead, most reviews relied on vote counting. Although many prognostic models for breast cancer have been published, remarkably few have been re-examined by independent groups in independent settings. The few validation studies have been carried out on ill-defined samples, sometimes of smaller size and short follow-up, and sometimes using different patient outcomes when validating a model. The evidence from the validation studies shows support for the prognostic value of the Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI). No new prognostic factors have been shown to add substantially to those identified in the 1980s. Improvement of this index depends on finding factors that are as important as, but independent of, lymph node, stage and pathological grade. The NPI remains a useful clinical tool, although additional factors may enhance its use. We accepted that hormone receptor status (ER) for hormonal therapy such as tamoxifen and prediction of response to trastuzumab by HER2 did not require systematic review, as the mechanism of action of these drugs requires intact receptors. There was no clear evidence that other factors were useful predictors of response and survival. The survey confirmed pathological nodal status, tumour grade, tumour size and ER status as the most clinically important factors for consideration when selecting women with early breast cancer for adjuvant systemic therapy in the UK. The protocols revealed that although UK cancer centres appear to be using the same prognostic and predictive factors when selecting women to receive adjuvant therapy, much variation in clinical practice exists. Some centres use protocols based upon the NPI whereas others do not use a single index score. Within NPI and non-NPI users, between-centre variability exists in guidelines for women for whom the benefits are uncertain. Consensus amongst units appears to be greatest when selecting women for adjuvant hormone therapy with the decision based primarily upon ER or progesterone receptor status rather than combinations of a number of factors. Guidelines as to who should receive adjuvant chemotherapy, however, were found to be much less uniform. Searches of the literature revealed only five published papers that had previously examined the cost-effectiveness of using prognostic information for clinical decision-making. These studies were of varying quality and highlight the fact that economic evaluation in this area appears still to be in its infancy. By combining methodologies used in determining prognosis with those used in health economic evaluation, it was possible to illustrate an approach for simulating the effectiveness (survival and quality-adjusted survival) and the cost-effectiveness associated with the decision to treat individual women or groups of women with different prognostic characteristics. The model showed that effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of adjuvant systemic therapy have the potential to vary substantially depending upon prognosis. For some women therapy may prove very effective and cost-effective, whereas for others it may actually prove detrimental (i.e. the reductions in health-related quality of life outweigh any survival benefit).

CONCLUSIONS

Outputs from the framework constructed using the methods described here have the potential to be useful for clinicians, attempting to determine whether net benefits can be obtained from administering adjuvant therapy for any presenting woman; and also for policy makers, who must be able to determine the total costs and outcomes associated with different prognosis based treatment protocols as compared with more conventional treat all or treat none policies. A risk table format enabling clinicians to look up a patient's prognostic factors to determine the likely benefits (survival and quality-adjusted survival) from administering therapy may be helpful. For policy makers, it was demonstrated that the model's output could be used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different treatment protocols based upon prognostic information. The framework should also be valuable in evaluating the likely impact and cost-effectiveness of new potential prognostic factors and adjuvant therapies.