Lifestyle Intervention and Excess Weight in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD): INSIGHT COPD Randomized Clinical Trial

Rationale: Being overweight or obese is common among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but whether interventions targeted at weight loss improve functional impairments is unknown. Objectives: INSIGHT (Intervention Study in Overweight Patients with COPD) tested whether a pragmatic low-intensity lifestyle intervention would lead to better physical functional status among overweight or obese participants with COPD. Methods: The trial was a 12-month, multicenter, patient-level pragmatic clinical trial. Participants were recruited from April 2017 to August 2019 from 38 sites across the United States and randomized to receive usual care or usual care plus lifestyle intervention. The intervention was a self-directed video program delivering the Diabetes Prevention Program's Group Lifestyle Balance curriculum. Results: The primary outcome was 6-minute-walk test distance at 12 months. Priority secondary outcomes were postwalk modified Borg dyspnea at 12 months and weight at 12 months. Participants (N = 684; mean age, 67.0 ± 8.0 yr [standard deviation]; 41.2% female) on average were obese (body mass index, 33.0 ± 4.6 kg/m2) with moderate COPD (forced expiratory volume in 1 second % predicted, 58.1 ± 15.7%). At 12 months, participants randomized to the intervention arm walked farther (adjusted difference, 42.3 ft [95% confidence interval (CI), 7.9-76.7 ft]; P = 0.02), had less dyspnea at the end of the 6-minute-walk test (adjusted difference, -0.36 [95% CI, -0.63 to -0.09]; P = 0.008), and had greater weight loss (adjusted difference, -1.34 kg [95% CI, -2.33 to -0.34 kg]; P = 0.008) than control participants. The intervention did not improve the odds of achieving clinically meaningful thresholds of walk distance (98.4 ft) or dyspnea (1 unit) but did achieve meaningful thresholds of weight loss (3% and 5%). Conclusions: Among participants with COPD who were overweight or obese, a self-guided low-intensity video-based lifestyle intervention led to modest weight loss but did not lead to clinically important improvements in physical functional status and dyspnea. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02634268).

Assessing the clinical utility of biomarkers using the intervention probability curve (IPC)

BACKGROUND

Assessing the clinical utility of biomarkers is a critical step before clinical implementation. The reclassification of patients across clinically relevant subgroups is considered one of the best methods to estimate clinical utility. However, there are important limitations with this methodology. We recently proposed the intervention probability curve (IPC) which models the likelihood that a provider will choose an intervention as a continuous function of the probability, or risk, of disease.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the potential impact of a new biomarker for lung cancer using the IPC.

METHODS

The IPC derived from the National Lung Screening Trial was used to assess the potential clinical utility of a biomarker for suspected lung cancer. The summary statistics of the change in likelihood of intervention over the population can be interpreted as the expected clinical impact of the added biomarker.

RESULTS

The IPC analysis of the novel biomarker estimated that 8% of the benign nodules could avoid an invasive procedure while the cancer nodules would largely remain unchanged (0.1%). We showed the benefits of this approach compared to traditional reclassification methods based on thresholds.

CONCLUSIONS

The IPC methodology can be a valuable tool for assessing biomarkers prior to clinical implementation.

Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes Among People Living With HIV Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: Insights From the Veterans Affairs Clinical Assessment, Reporting, and Tracking Program

Background Clinical characteristics and outcomes in people living with HIV (PLWH) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) remain poorly described. We sought to compare real-world treatment of coronary artery disease, as well as patient and procedural factors and outcomes after PCI between PLWH and uninfected controls. Methods and Results We utilized procedural registry data from the Veterans Affairs Clinical Assessment, Reporting, and Tracking Program between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2019 to analyze patients with obstructive coronary artery disease on angiography. In the PCI subgroup, we used inverse probability of treatment weighting and applied Cox proportional hazards to evaluate the association of HIV serostatus with outcomes, including all-cause mortality at 5 years. Among 184 310 patients with obstructive coronary artery disease, treatment strategy was similar between PLWH and controls-35.7% versus 34.2% PCI, 13.6% versus 15% coronary artery bypass grafting, and 50.7% versus 50.8% medical therapy. The PCI cohort consisted of 546 (0.9%) PLWH and 56 811 (99.1%) controls. PLWH undergoing PCI had well-controlled HIV disease, and compared with controls, were younger, more likely to be Black, had fewer traditional risk factors, more acute coronary syndrome, less extensive coronary artery disease, and similar types of stents and P2Y12 therapy. However, PLWH experienced worse survival as early as 6 months post-PCI, which persisted over time and amounted to a 21% increased mortality risk by 5 years (hazard ratio, 1.21 [95% CI, 1.03-1.42; P=0.02]). Conclusions Despite well-controlled HIV disease, a more favorable overall cardiovascular risk profile, and similar PCI procedural metrics, PLWH still have significantly worse long-term survival following PCI than controls.

Association of Residual Ischemic Disease With Clinical Outcomes After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

BACKGROUND

Anatomical scoring systems have been used to assess completeness of revascularization but are challenging to apply to large real-world datasets.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of complete revascularization and its association with longitudinal clinical outcomes in the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) health care system using an automatically computed anatomic complexity score.

METHODS

Patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) between October 1, 2007, and September 30, 2020, were identified, and the burden of prerevascularization and postrevascularization ischemic disease was quantified using the VA SYNTAX (Synergy Between PCI With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) score. The association between residual VA SYNTAX score and long-term major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; death, myocardial infarction, repeat revascularization, and stroke) was assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 57,476 veterans underwent PCI during the study period. After adjustment, the highest tertile of residual VA SYNTAX score was associated with increased hazard of MACE (HR: 2.06; 95% CI: 1.98-2.15) and death (HR: 1.50; 95% CI: 1.41-1.59) at 3 years compared to complete revascularization (residual VA SYNTAX score = 0). Hazard of 1- and 3-year MACE increased as a function of residual disease, regardless of baseline disease severity or initial presentation with acute or chronic coronary syndrome.

CONCLUSIONS

Residual ischemic disease was strongly associated with long-term clinical outcomes in a contemporary national cohort of PCI patients. Automatically computed anatomic complexity scores can be used to assess the longitudinal risk for residual ischemic disease after PCI and may be implemented to improve interventional quality.

Effect of a Remotely Delivered Self-directed Behavioral Intervention on Body Weight and Physical Health Status Among Adults With Obesity: The D-ELITE Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

The effectiveness of remotely delivered, self-directed, weight loss programs in routine clinical practice is largely unknown.

Objective

To test whether a self-directed, remotely administered behavioral lifestyle intervention improves weight and self-reported general health status compared with usual care.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this randomized clinical trial, 511 adults with a body mass index (BMI) of 30 or more and less than 45 (based on electronic health record [EHR] weight and height), were enrolled from 30 Veterans Health Administration (VHA) sites between February 15, 2018, and December 18, 2018 (final follow-up February 18, 2021).

Interventions

Participants were randomly assigned to the intervention group (n = 254) or the control group (n = 257). Both received usual care. Participants randomized to the intervention received Diabetes Prevention Program-based self-directed videos, handouts, and coaching messages via an online platform or US mail for 12 months.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Coprimary outcomes were weight measured in primary care and recorded in the EHR and self-reported general health status using the Medical Outcomes Study 12-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-12) physical component score (PCS; higher scores are better [range, 0-100]) at the 12-month follow-up. The between-group minimal clinically important differences are 3 kg for weight and 5 points for the SF-12 PCS. Linear mixed models used weights and SF-12 PCS measured at either time point, with participants analyzed according to randomization assignment. Statistical significance for each coprimary outcome was based on a 2-sided α level of .025.

Results

Among 511 participants randomized (mean age, 57.4 [SD, 13.9] years; 231 female [45%]), 429 (84.0%) had EHR-based weights and 410 (80.2%) had SF-12 PCS data at 12 months. The unadjusted mean weight at 12 months declined from 102.7 kg to 99.8 kg in the intervention group compared with 101.9 kg to 101.0 kg in the control group (adjusted between-group mean difference, -1.93 [97.5% CI, -3.24 to -0.61]; P = .001). At 12 months, the unadjusted mean SF-12 PCS scores declined from 44.8 to 44.3 among intervention participants compared with 44.5 to 43.2 among control participants (adjusted between-group mean difference, intervention minus control, 0.69 [97.5% CI, -1.11 to 2.49]; P = .39). Cardiovascular events represented the highest percentage of serious adverse events, accounting for 25% of events in the intervention group and 35% in the control group.

Conclusions and Relevance

Among adults with obesity, a remotely delivered self-directed, behavioral lifestyle intervention, compared with usual care, resulted in statistically significantly greater weight loss at 12 months, although the difference was not clinically important. There was no significant difference in self-reported general physical health status at 12 months.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03260140.

The Effect of Intrathoracic Lesion Location on Initial Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor Response in Advanced Oncogene-Addicted Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: A Comparison Between RECIST 1.1 and a Novel Method of Response Assessment (MAX)

INTRODUCTION

Different subtypes of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are associated with different patterns of metastatic spread. Anatomic location of lesions in the chest may influence patterns of cancer growth and the shrinkage to therapy. Consequently, lesion location could affect apparent response rates per RECIST. We sought to explore this and develop, as needed, treatment response assessments less affected by the location.

METHODS

Cases of advanced oncogene-addicted NSCLC (EGFR, ALK, and ROS1) with pre- and on-therapy imaging during initial targeted therapy were identified. Lesions located in the lung parenchyma, pleural space or intra-thoracic lymph nodes were identified and analyzed separately from each other by RECIST 1.1 (unidimensional measurements) and by a novel MAX methodology (bidimensional measurements) which takes the axis with the greatest absolute percentage change on therapy in each location as the representative measurement.

RESULTS

Three hundred three patients with 446 unidimensional measured lesions were included for RECIST analysis. Two hundred forty nine patients with 386 bidimensional measured lesions were included for MAX analysis, as well as the analysis comparing RECIST and MAX. Intrathoracic location significantly impacted percentage shrinkage and the response rate per RECIST. The response rates for pleural, intra-parenchymal and nodal lesions were 34.1%, 49.6%, and 68.3%, respectively (P = .0002). The MAX methodology both increased the apparent treatment effect and made it consistent between intrathoracic locations. For pleural, parenchymal and nodal lesions, the MAX calculated response rate were 83.7%, 72.2%, and 75.4%, respectively (P-value = .24).

CONCLUSION

Intrathoracic lesion location affects RECIST-based treatment effectiveness estimations. The MAX methodology neutralizes location effect when examining impact of treatment and should be explored further.

The Intervention Probability Curve: Modeling the Practical Application of Threshold-Guided Decision-Making, Evaluated in Lung, Prostate, and Ovarian Cancers

BACKGROUND

Diagnostic prediction models are useful guides when considering lesions suspicious for cancer, as they provide a quantitative estimate of the probability that a lesion is malignant. However, the decision to intervene ultimately rests on patient and physician preferences. The appropriate intervention in many clinical situations is typically defined by clinically relevant, actionable subgroups based upon the probability of malignancy. However, the "all-or-nothing" approach of threshold-based decisions is in practice incorrect.

METHODS

Here, we present a novel approach to understanding clinical decision-making, the intervention probability curve (IPC). The IPC models the likelihood that an intervention will be chosen as a continuous function of the probability of disease. We propose the cumulative distribution function as a suitable model. The IPC is explored using the National Lung Screening Trial and the Prostate Lung Colorectal and Ovarian Screening Trial datasets.

RESULTS

Fitting the IPC results in a continuous curve as a function of pretest probability of cancer with high correlation (R2 > 0.97 for each) with fitted parameters closely aligned with professional society guidelines.

CONCLUSIONS

The IPC allows analysis of intervention decisions in a continuous, rather than threshold-based, approach to further understand the role of biomarkers and risk models in clinical practice.

IMPACT

We propose that consideration of IPCs will yield significant insights into the practical relevance of threshold-based management strategies and could provide a novel method to estimate the actual clinical utility of novel biomarkers.

Transitions of Care Among Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention for Stable Angina: Insights From the Veterans Affairs Clinical Assessment Reporting and Tracking Program

Background

Effective transitions from the procedural to outpatient setting are essential to ensure high‐quality cardiovascular care across health care systems, particularly among patients undergoing invasive cardiac procedures. We evaluated the association of postprocedural follow‐up visits and antiplatelet prescriptions with clinical outcomes among patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention for stable angina at community or Veterans Affairs (VA) hospitals.

Methods and Results

Patients who actively received care within the VA Healthcare System and underwent percutaneous coronary intervention for stable angina at a community or VA hospital between October 1, 2015, and September 30, 2019, were identified. We compared mortality for patients receiving community or VA care, and among subgroups of community‐treated patients by the presence of a postprocedural follow‐up visit within 30 days or prescription for antiplatelet (P2Y12) medication within 120 days of the procedure. Among 12 837 patients who survived the first 30 days, 5133 were treated at community hospitals, and 7704 were treated in the VA. Prescriptions for antiplatelet therapy were less common for those treated in the community (85%) compared with the VA at 1 year (95%; hazard ratio [HR], 0.46; 95% CI, 0.44–47). Compared with VA‐treated patients, the hazards for death were similar for patients treated in the community with a follow‐up visit (HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.97–1.40) or with a fill for an antiplatelet therapy (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.90–1.30). However, patients treated in the community without a follow‐up visit had an 86% (HR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.40–2.48) increased hazard of death, and those without antiplatelet prescription fill had a 144% increased hazard of death (HR, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.85–3.21) compared with all VA‐treated patients.

Conclusions

Patients treated at community facilities have a decreased chance of receiving antiplatelet prescriptions after percutaneous coronary intervention with a concordant increased hazard of mortality, emphasizing the importance of transitions of care across health care systems when assessing cardiovascular quality.

Clinical Characteristics and Outcomes Among Patients Undergoing High-Risk Percutaneous Coronary Interventions by Single or Multiple Operators: Insights From the Veterans Affairs Clinical Assessment, Reporting, and Tracking Program

Background High-risk percutaneous coronary intervention (HR-PCI) is increasingly common among contemporary patients with coronary artery disease. Experts have advocated for a collaborative 2-operator approach to support intraprocedural decision-making for these complex interventions. The impact of a second operator on patient and procedural outcomes is unknown. Methods and Results Patients who underwent HR-PCI from 2015 to 2018 within the Veterans Affairs Healthcare System were identified. Propensity-matched cohorts were generated to compare the outcomes following HR-PCI performed by a single or multiple (≥2) operators. The primary end point was the 12-month rate of major adverse cardiovascular events. We identified 6672 patients who underwent HR-PCI during the study period; 6211 (93%) were treated by a single operator, and 461 (7%) were treated by multiple operators, with a nonsignificant trend toward increased multioperator procedures over time. A higher proportion of patients treated by multiple operators underwent left main (10% versus 7%, P=0.045) or chronic total occlusion intervention (11% versus 5%, P<0.001). Lead interventionalists participating in multioperator procedures practiced at centers with higher annual HR-PCI volumes (124±71.3 versus 111±69.2; standardized mean difference, 0.197; P<0.001) but otherwise performed a similar number of HR-PCI procedures per year (34.4±35.3 versus 34.7±30.7; standardized mean difference, 0.388; P=0.841) compared with their peers performing single-operator interventions. In a propensity-matched cohort, there was no significant difference in major adverse cardiovascular events (32% versus 30%, P=0.444) between patients who underwent single-operator versus multioperator HR-PCI. Adjusted analyses accounting for site-level variance showed no significant differences in outcomes. Conclusions Patients who underwent multioperator HR-PCI had similar outcomes compared with single-operator procedures. Further studies are needed to determine if the addition of a second operator offers clinical benefits to a subset of HR-PCI patients undergoing left main or chronic total occlusion intervention.

Integrated Biomarkers for the Management of Indeterminate Pulmonary Nodules

Rationale: Patients with indeterminate pulmonary nodules (IPNs) at risk of cancer undergo high rates of invasive, costly, and morbid procedures. Objectives: To train and externally validate a risk prediction model that combined clinical, blood, and imaging biomarkers to improve the noninvasive management of IPNs. Methods: In this prospectively collected, retrospective blinded evaluation study, probability of cancer was calculated for 456 patient nodules using the Mayo Clinic model, and patients were categorized into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups. A combined biomarker model (CBM) including clinical variables, serum high sensitivity CYFRA 21-1 level, and a radiomic signature was trained in cohort 1 (n = 170) and validated in cohorts 2-4 (total n = 286). All patients were pooled to recalibrate the model for clinical implementation. The clinical utility of the CBM compared with current clinical care was evaluated in 2 cohorts. Measurements and Main Results: The CBM provided improved diagnostic accuracy over the Mayo Clinic model with an improvement in area under the curve of 0.124 (95% bootstrap confidence interval, 0.091-0.156; P < 2 × 10-16). Applying 10% and 70% risk thresholds resulted in a bias-corrected clinical reclassification index for cases and control subjects of 0.15 and 0.12, respectively. A clinical utility analysis of patient medical records estimated that a CBM-guided strategy would have reduced invasive procedures from 62.9% to 50.6% in the intermediate-risk benign population and shortened the median time to diagnosis of cancer from 60 to 21 days in intermediate-risk cancers. Conclusions: Integration of clinical, blood, and image biomarkers improves noninvasive diagnosis of patients with IPNs, potentially reducing the rate of unnecessary invasive procedures while shortening the time to diagnosis.

Determinants Associated With Longitudinal Adherence to Annual Lung Cancer Screening: A Retrospective Analysis of Claims Data

OBJECTIVE

Lung cancer screening (LCS) efficacy is highly dependent on adherence to annual screening, but little is known about real-world adherence determinants. We used insurance claims data to examine associations between LCS annual adherence and demographic, comorbidity, health care usage, and geographic factors.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Insurance claims data for all individuals with an LCS low-dose CT scan were obtained from the Colorado All Payer Claims Dataset. Adherence was defined as a second claim for a screening CT 10 to 18 months after the index claim. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to define the relationship between annual adherence and age, gender, insurance type, residence location, outpatient health care usage, and comorbidity burden.

RESULTS

After exclusions, the final data set consisted of 9,056 records with 3,072 adherent, 3,570 nonadherent, and 2,414 censored (unclassifiable) individuals. Less adherence was associated with ages 55 to 59 (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.80, 99% confidence interval [CI] = 0.67-0.94), 60 to 64 (HR = 0.83, 99% CI = 0.71-0.97), and 75 to 79 (HR = 0.79, 99% CI = 0.65-0.97); rural residence (HR = 0.56, 99% CI = 0.43-0.73); Medicare fee-for-service (HR = 0.45, 99% CI = 0.39-0.51), and Medicaid (HR = 0.50, 99% CI = 0.40-0.62). A significant interaction between outpatient health care usage and comorbidity was also observed. Increased outpatient usage was associated with increased adherence and was most pronounced for individuals without comorbidities.

CONCLUSIONS

This population-based description of LCS adherence determinants provides insight into populations that might benefit from specific interventions targeted toward improving adherence and maximizing LCS benefit. Quantifying population-based adherence rates and understanding factors associated with annual adherence are critical to improving screening adherence and reducing lung cancer death.

Power for balanced linear mixed models with complex missing data processes

When designing repeated measures studies, both the amount and the pattern of missing outcome data can affect power. The chance that an observation is missing may vary across measurements, and missingness may be correlated across measurements. For example, in a physiotherapy study of patients with Parkinson's disease, increasing intermittent dropout over time yielded missing measurements of physical function. In this example, we assume data are missing completely at random, since the chance that a data point was missing appears to be unrelated to either outcomes or covariates. For data missing completely at random, we propose noncentral F power approximations for the Wald test for balanced linear mixed models with Gaussian responses. The power approximations are based on moments of missing data summary statistics. The moments were derived assuming a conditional linear missingness process. The approach provides approximate power for both complete-case analyses, which include independent sampling units where all measurements are present, and observed-case analyses, which include all independent sampling units with at least one measurement. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the accuracy of the method in small samples. We illustrate the utility of the method by computing power for proposed replications of the Parkinson's study.

Renin-Angiotensin-Aldosterone System Inhibitor Use and Mortality in Pulmonary Hypertension: Insights From the Veterans Affairs Clinical Assessment Reporting and Tracking Database

BACKGROUND

The renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) contributes to pulmonary hypertension (PH) pathogenesis. Although animal data suggest that RAAS inhibition attenuates PH, it is unknown if RAAS inhibition is beneficial in PH patients.

RESEARCH QUESTION

Is RAAS inhibitor use associated with lower mortality in a large cohort of patients with hemodynamically confirmed PH?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

We used the Department of Veterans Affairs Clinical Assessment Reporting and Tracking Database to study retrospectively relationships between RAAS inhibitors (angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors [ACEIs], angiotensin receptor blockers [ARBs], and aldosterone antagonists [AAs]) and mortality in 24,221 patients with hemodynamically confirmed PH. We evaluated relationships in the full and in propensity-matched cohorts. Analyses were adjusted for demographics, socioeconomic status, comorbidities, disease severity, and comedication use in staged models.

RESULTS

ACEI and ARB use was associated with improved survival in unadjusted Kaplan-Meier survival analyses in the full cohort and the propensity-matched cohort. This relationship was insensitive to adjustment, independent of pulmonary artery wedge pressure, and also was observed in a cohort restricted to individuals with precapillary PH. AA use was associated with worse survival in unadjusted Kaplan-Meier survival analyses in the full cohort; however, AA use was associated less robustly with mortality in the propensity-matched cohort and was not associated with worse survival after adjustment for disease severity, indicating that AAs in real-world practice are used preferentially in sicker patients and that the unadjusted association with increased mortality may be an artifice of confounding by indication of severity.

INTERPRETATION

ACEI and ARB use is associated with lower mortality in veterans with PH. AA use is a marker of disease severity in PH. ACEIs and ARBs may represent a novel treatment strategy for diverse PH phenotypes.

Long-term predictive value of stroke volume index obtained from right heart catheterization: Insights from the veterans affairs clinical assessment, reporting, and tracking program

BACKGROUND

Right heart catheterization-derived hemodynamic parameters have been associated with short-term prognosis.

HYPOTHESIS

Hemodynamic parameters will be associated with long-term prognosis.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study from the Veterans Affairs Clinical Assessment, Reporting, and Tracking Program included patients who underwent an index right heart catheterization between 2008 and 2016. Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the association between stroke volume index and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

For the final cohort of 37 209 patients, mean follow-up was 3.7 ± 2.5 years. All-cause mortality was 42.0% in the low (<35 cc/beat/m² ) compared with 33.2% in the normal stroke volume index group (≥35 cc/beat/m² ). In adjusted analysis, low stroke volume was significantly associated with higher mortality risk (HR (95% CI) 1.14 (1.10-1.18); P < .001) independent of clinical parameters. The area under the curve (AUC) for continuous measures of stroke volume index at predicting mortality in a Cox proportional hazard model was 0.56 at 3 years. When stroke volume index was combined with 14 clinical covariates, the AUC was 0.70 at 3 years. The addition of stroke volume index to these clinical covariates did not increase the discriminatory ability of the model at 1 year in a clinically meaningful way (integrated discrimination improvement index = 0.0021, 95% CI: 0.0010-0.0034).

CONCLUSIONS

The long-term prognostic value of right heart catheterization-derived stroke volume index appears to be marginal. While there was a weak association of low stroke volume index and excess mortality, inclusion of this parameter to a set of clinical covariates did not improve prognostic discrimination.

Association of Glycemic Control Trajectory with Short-Term Mortality in Diabetes Patients with High Cardiovascular Risk: a Joint Latent Class Modeling Study

BACKGROUND

The relationship between risk factor or biomarker trajectories and contemporaneous short-term clinical outcomes is poorly understood. In diabetes patients, it is unknown whether hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) trajectories are associated with clinical outcomes and can inform care in scenarios in which a single HbA1c is uninformative, for example, after a diagnosis of coronary artery disease (CAD).

OBJECTIVE

To compare associations of HbA1c trajectories and single HbA1c values with short-term mortality in diabetes patients evaluated for CAD DESIGN: Retrospective observational cohort study PARTICIPANTS: Diabetes patients (n = 7780) with and without angiographically defined CAD MAIN MEASURES: We used joint latent class mixed models to simultaneously fit HbA1c trajectories and estimate association with 2-year mortality after cardiac catheterization, adjusting for clinical and demographic covariates.

KEY RESULTS

Three HBA1c trajectory classes were identified: individuals with stable glycemia (class A; n = 6934 [89%]; mean baseline HbA1c 6.9%), with declining HbA1c (class B; n = 364 [4.7%]; mean baseline HbA1c 11.6%), and with increasing HbA1c (class C; n = 482 [6.2%]; mean baseline HbA1c 8.5%). HbA1c trajectory class was associated with adjusted 2-year mortality (3.0% [95% CI 2.8, 3.2] for class A, 3.1% [2.1, 4.2] for class B, and 4.2% [3.4, 4.9] for class C; global P = 0.047, P = 0.03 comparing classes A and C, P > 0.05 for other pairwise comparisons). Baseline HbA1c was not associated with 2-year mortality (P = 0.85; hazard ratios 1.01 [0.96, 1.06] and 1.02 [0.95, 1.10] for HbA1c 7-9% and ≥ 9%, respectively, relative to HbA1c < 7%). The association between HbA1c trajectories and mortality did not differ between those with and without CAD (interaction P = 0.1).

CONCLUSIONS

In clinical settings where single HbA1c measurements provide limited information, HbA1c trajectories may help stratify risk of complications in diabetes patients. Joint latent class modeling provides a generalizable approach to examining relationships between biomarker trajectories and clinical outcomes in the era of near-universal adoption of electronic health records.

Testing a self-directed lifestyle intervention among veterans: The D-ELITE pragmatic clinical trial

Nearly half of Veterans have obesity, fueling chronic diseases. The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) offers an evidence-based behavioral weight management intervention called MOVE!, mostly delivered through in-person group sessions. Few eligible Veterans participate due to factors like distance and preferences, mirroring barriers in the general population. Practical alternatives to standard in-person programs are needed to improve access and engagement. A self-directed lifestyle intervention called D-ELITE-delivered through pre-recorded videos by DVD or online streaming-previously efficacious in a general primary care population, may provide such an alternative. This pragmatic clinical trial will evaluate whether D-ELITE improves weight and general health status among Veterans with obesity, relative to VA usual care. The yearlong intervention includes one orientation by phone, supplemental lifestyle coaching primarily via technology-based messages, 12 DVD or online streaming sessions over 3 months, and continued self-directed weight management for months 4-12. Participants use MyFitnessPal.com or paper booklets for self-monitoring weight, diet, and physical activity. Follow-up assessments at 12 and 24 months are administered by mail or phone. The study hypothesis is that compared with usual care, D-ELITE will lead to greater improvements in 12-month weight loss, per VA electronic health records, and general physical health status, assessed using the self-reported SF-12 physical composite score. We will also explore D-ELITE's effects on secondary biometric (e.g., HbA1c) and intermediate (e.g., diet) outcomes, reach, and budget impact. If effective, D-ELITE will offer a potentially scalable, low-cost alternative to VA's existing weight loss interventions by mitigating barriers presented by distance and technology.

Pulmonary vascular resistance and clinical outcomes in patients with pulmonary hypertension: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

In pulmonary hypertension subgroups, elevated pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR) of 3·0 Wood units or more is associated with poor prognosis. However, the spectrum of PVR risk in pulmonary hypertension is not known. To address this area of uncertainty, we aimed to analyse the relationship between PVR and adverse clinical outcomes in pulmonary hypertension.

METHODS

We did a retrospective cohort study of all patients undergoing right heart catheterisation (RHC) in the US Veterans Affairs health-care system (Oct 1, 2007-Sep 30, 2016). Patients were included in the analyses if data from a complete RHC and at least 1 year of follow-up were available. Both inpatients and outpatients were included, but individuals with missing mean pulmonary artery pressure (mPAP), pulmonary artery wedge pressure, or cardiac output were excluded. The primary outcome measure was time to all-cause mortality assessed by the Veteran Affairs vital status file. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association between PVR and outcomes, and the mortality hazard ratio was validated in a RHC cohort from Vanderbilt University Medical Center (Sept 24, 1998-June 1, 2016).

FINDINGS

The primary cohort (N=40 082; 38 751 [96·7%] male; median age 66·5 years [IQR 61·1-73·5]; median follow-up 1153 days [IQR 570-1971]), included patients with a history of heart failure (23 201 [57·9%]) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (13 348 [33·3%]). We focused on patients at risk for pulmonary hypertension based on a mPAP of at least 19 mm Hg (32 725 [81·6%] of 40 082). When modelled as a continuous variable, the all-cause mortality hazard for PVR was increased at around 2·2 Wood units compared with PVR of 1·0 Wood unit. Among patients with a mPAP of at least 19 mm Hg and pulmonary artery wedge pressure of 15 mm Hg or less, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for mortality was 1·71 (95% CI 1·59-1·84; p<0·0001) and for heart failure hospitalisation was 1·27 (1·13-1·43; p=0·0001), when comparing PVR of 2·2 Wood units or more to less than 2·2 Wood units. The validation cohort (N=3699, 1860 [50·3%] male, median age 60·4 years [49·5-69·2]; median follow-up 1752 days [IQR 1281-2999]) included 2870 patients [77·6%] with mPAP of at least 19 mm Hg (1418 [49·4%] male). The adjusted mortality HR for patients in the mPAP of 19 mm Hg or more group and with PVR of 2·2 Wood units or more and pulmonary artery wedge pressure of 15 mm or less Hg (1221 [42·5%] of 2870) was 1·81 (95% CI 1·33-2·47; p=0·0002).

INTERPRETATION

These data widen the continuum of clinical risk for mortality and heart failure in patients referred for RHC with elevated pulmonary artery pressure to include PVR of around 2.2 Wood units and higher. Testing the generalisability of these findings in at-risk populations with fewer cardiopulmonary comorbidities is warranted.

FUNDING

None.

Association of Coronary Anatomical Complexity With Clinical Outcomes After Percutaneous or Surgical Revascularization in the Veterans Affairs Clinical Assessment Reporting and Tracking Program

Importance

Anatomical scoring systems for coronary artery disease, such as the SYNTAX (Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention [PCI] With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) score, are well established tools for understanding patient risk. However, they are cumbersome to compute manually for large data sets, limiting their use across broad and varied cohorts.

Objective

To adapt an anatomical scoring system for use with registry data, allowing facile and automatic calculation of scores and association with clinical outcomes among patients undergoing percutaneous or surgical revascularization.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional observational cohort study involved procedures performed in all cardiac catheterization laboratories in the largest integrated health care system in the United States, the Veterans Affairs (VA) Healthcare System. Patients undergoing coronary angiography in the VA Healthcare System followed by percutaneous or surgical revascularization within 90 days were observed and data were analyzed from January 1, 2010, through September 30, 2017.

Main Outcomes and Measures

An anatomical scoring system for coronary artery disease complexity before revascularization was simplified and adapted to data from the VA Clinical Assessment, Reporting, and Tracking Program. The adjusted association between quantified anatomical complexity and major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs), including death, myocardial infarction, stroke, and repeat revascularization, was assessed for patients undergoing percutaneous or surgical revascularization.

Results

A total of 50 226 patients (49 359 men [98.3%]; mean [SD] age, 66 [9] years) underwent revascularization during the study period, with 34 322 undergoing PCI and 15 904 undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). After adjustment, the highest tertile of anatomical complexity was associated with increased hazard of MACCEs (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 2.12; 95% CI, 2.01-2.23). In contrast, the highest tertile of anatomical complexity among patients undergoing CABG was not independently associated with overall MACCEs (adjusted HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.92-1.17), and only repeat revascularization was associated with increasing complexity (adjusted HR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.06-1.70) in this subgroup.

Conclusions and Relevance

These findings suggest that an automatically computed score assessing anatomical complexity can be used to assess longitudinal risk for patients undergoing revascularization. This simplified scoring system appears to be an alternative tool for understanding longitudinal risk across large data sets.

Impact of a Hybrid Lung Cancer Screening Model on Patient Outcomes and Provider Behavior

BACKGROUND

Lung cancer screening (LCS) implementation is complicated by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services reimbursement requirements of shared decision-making and tobacco cessation counseling. LCS programs can utilize different structures to meet these requirements, but the impact of programmatic structure on provider behavior and screening outcomes is poorly described.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In a retrospective chart review of 624 patients in a hybrid structure, academic LCS program, we compared characteristics and outcomes of primary care provider (PCP)- and specialist-screened patients. We also assessed the impact of the availability of an LCS specialty clinic and best practice advisory (BPA) on PCP ordering patterns using electronic medical record generated reports.

RESULTS

During the study period of July 1, 2014 through June 30, 2018, 48% of patients were specialist-screened and 52% were PCP-screened; there were no clinically relevant differences in patient characteristics or screening outcomes between these populations. PCPs demonstrate distinct practice patterns when offered the choice of specialist-driven or PCP-driven screening. Increased exposure to a LCS BPA is associated with increased PCP screening orders. The addition of a nurse navigator into the LCS program increased documentation of shared decision-making and tobacco cessation counseling to > 95% and virtually eliminated screening of ineligible patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Systematic interventions including a BPA and nurse navigator are associated with increased screening and improved program quality, as evidenced by reduced screening of ineligible patients, increased lung cancer risk of the screened population, and improved compliance with LCS guidelines. Individual PCPs demonstrate clear preferences regarding LCS that should be considered in program design.

Variation in contrast-associated acute kidney injury prophylaxis for percutaneous coronary intervention: insights from the Veterans Affairs Clinical Assessment, Reporting, and Tracking (CART) program

Background

Contrast-Associated Acute Kidney Injury (CA-AKI) is a serious complication associated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) have an elevated risk for developing this complication. Although CA-AKI prophylactic measures are available, the supporting literature is variable and inconsistent for periprocedural hydration and N-acetylcysteine (NAC), but is stronger for contrast minimization.

Methods

We assessed the prevalence and variability of CA-AKI prophylaxis among CKD patients undergoing PCI between October 2007 and September 2015 in any cardiac catheterization laboratory in the VA Healthcare System. Prophylaxis included periprocedural hydration with normal saline or sodium bicarbonate, NAC, and contrast minimization (contrast volume to glomerular filtration rate ratio ≤ 3). Multivariable hierarchical logistic regression models quantified site-specific prophylaxis variability. As secondary analyses, we also assessed CA-AKI prophylaxis measures in all PCI patients regardless of kidney function, periprocedural hydration in patients with comorbid CHF, and temporal trends in CA-AKI prophylaxis.

Results

From 2007 to 2015, 15,729 patients with CKD underwent PCI. 6928 (44.0%) received periprocedural hydration (practice-level median rate 45.3%, interquartile range (IQR) 35.5–56.7), 5107 (32.5%) received NAC (practice-level median rate 28.3%, IQR 22.8–36.9), and 4656 (36.0%) received contrast minimization (practice-level median rate 34.5, IQR 22.6–53.9). After adjustment for patient characteristics, there was significant site variability with a median odds ratio (MOR) of 1.80 (CI 1.56–2.08) for periprocedural hydration, 1.95 (CI 1.66–2.29) for periprocedural hydration or NAC, and 2.68 (CI 2.23–3.15) for contrast minimization. These trends were similar among all patients (with and without CKD) undergoing PCI. Among patients with comorbid CHF (n = 5893), 2629 (44.6%) received periprocedural hydration, and overall had less variability in hydration (MOR of 1.56 (CI 1.38–1.76)) compared to patients without comorbid CHF (1.89 (CI 1.65–2.18)). Temporal trend analysis showed a significant and clinically relevant decrease in NAC use (64.1% of cases in 2008 (N = 1059), 6.2% of cases in 2015 (N = 128, p = < 0.0001)) and no significant change in contrast-minimization (p = 0.3907).

Conclusions

Among patients with CKD undergoing PCI, there was low utilization and significant site-level variability for periprocedural hydration and NAC independent of patient-specific risk. This low utilization and high variability, however, was also present for contrast minimization, a well-established measure. These findings suggest that a standardized approach to CA-AKI prophylaxis, along with continued development of the evidence base, is needed.

Quantifying the incremental value of deep learning: Application to lung nodule detection

We present a case study for implementing a machine learning algorithm with an incremental value framework in the domain of lung cancer research. Machine learning methods have often been shown to be competitive with prediction models in some domains; however, implementation of these methods is in early development. Often these methods are only directly compared to existing methods; here we present a framework for assessing the value of a machine learning model by assessing the incremental value. We developed a machine learning model to identify and classify lung nodules and assessed the incremental value added to existing risk prediction models. Multiple external datasets were used for validation. We found that our image model, trained on a dataset from The Cancer Imaging Archive (TCIA), improves upon existing models that are restricted to patient characteristics, but it was inconclusive about whether it improves on models that consider nodule features. Another interesting finding is the variable performance on different datasets, suggesting population generalization with machine learning models may be more challenging than is often considered.

Evaluating the effectiveness of traumatic brain injury state laws among high school athletes

BACKGROUND

Traumatic brain injury legislation varies across states. A comprehensive nationwide evaluation of state traumatic brain injury laws is vital given growing populations of high school athletes. This study evaluates the effectiveness of traumatic brain injury laws by examining longitudinal trends in incident and recurrent concussion rates and determines if state level variations in legislation's language affected the observed trends.

METHODS

In this retrospective ecological study of a large national sample of US high schools from 2005/06 through 2017/18, piecewise regression models along with a profile likelihood approach were utilized to examine longitudinal trends in incident and recurrent concussion rates.

RESULTS

Overall incident concussion rates increased by an additional 1.85%/standardized month (STDM) (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.14, 2.56%) prior to law passage and decreased by an additional 1.08%/ STDM (95%CI: - 1.43, - 0.72%) after law passage. Similar trends were observed for overall recurrent concussion rates. Among states that specified the category of healthcare provider for return to play clearance, post-law recurrent concussion rates decreased on average by an additional 1.59%/STDM (95%CI: - 3.42, 0.22%) compared to states that did not specify the category of healthcare provider.

CONCLUSIONS

The passage of state level traumatic brain injury laws was associated with an increase in overall incident and recurrent concussion rates prior to law passage and a decrease in rates after law passage. Although not statistically significant, states with traumatic brain injury laws specifying the category of healthcare provider for return to play clearance had a greater rate of decline in post-law recurrent concussion rates compared to states not specifying the category of healthcare provider. The findings suggest that state traumatic brain injury laws may benefit from specifying the category of healthcare provider allowed to provide return to play clearance, if they do not already include such language.

Variability in Transitional Care Outcomes Across Hospitals Discharging Veterans to Skilled Nursing Facilities

BACKGROUND

The period after transition from hospital to skilled nursing facility (SNF) is high-risk, but variability in outcomes related to transitions across hospitals is not well-known.

OBJECTIVES

Evaluate variability in transitional care outcomes across Veterans Health Administration (VHA) and non-VHA hospitals for Veterans, and identify characteristics of high-performing and low-performing hospitals.

RESEARCH DESIGN

Retrospective observational study using the 2012-2014 Residential History File, which concatenates VHA, Medicare, and Medicaid data into longitudinal episodes of care for Veterans.

SUBJECTS

Veterans aged 65 or older who were acutely hospitalized in a VHA or non-VHA hospital and discharged to SNF; 1 transition was randomly selected per patient.

MEASURES

Adverse "transitional care" outcomes were a composite of hospital readmission, emergency department visit, or mortality within 7 days of hospital discharge.

RESULTS

Among the 365,942 Veteran transitions from hospital to SNF across 1310 hospitals, the composite outcome rate ranged from 3.3% to 23.2%. In multivariable analysis adjusting for patient characteristics, hospital discharge diagnosis and SNF category, no single hospital characteristic was significantly associated with the 7-day adverse outcomes in either VHA or non-VHA hospitals. Very few high or low-performing hospitals remained in this category across all 3 years. The increased odds of having a 7-day event due to being treated in a low versus high-performing hospital was similar to the odds carried by having an intensive care unit stay during the index admission.

CONCLUSIONS

While variability in hospital outcomes is significant, unmeasured care processes may play a larger role than currently measured hospital characteristics in explaining outcomes.

Predictors and Outcomes of Staged Versus One-Time Multivessel Revascularization in Multivessel Coronary Artery Disease: Insights From the VA CART Program

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to determine predictors and outcomes associated with staged percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) versus one-time multivessel revascularization (OTMVR) in patients with multivessel coronary artery disease.

BACKGROUND

Prior observational studies have not evaluated predictors and outcomes of staged PCI versus OTMVR in a heterogenous population of patients with multivessel coronary artery disease who undergo multivessel revascularization.

METHODS

Data from the Veterans Affairs (VA) CART (Clinical Assessment, Reporting, and Tracking) Program were used to evaluate patients who underwent PCI of >2 vessels between October 1, 2007, and September 3, 2014. Associations between individual factors and the decision to perform staged PCI were assessed. Additionally, the impact of measured patient and procedural factors, site factors, and unmeasured site factors on the decision to perform staged PCI was compared. Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the association between staged PCI and mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 7,599 patients at 61 sites were included. The decision to perform staged PCI was driven by procedural characteristics and unmeasured site factors. Staged PCI was associated with lower risk-adjusted mortality compared with OTMVR (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.72 to 0.84; p < 0.01). This mortality benefit was observed among the ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (HR: 0.31; 95% CI: 0.21 to 0.47; p < 0.01), non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (HR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.64 to 0.87; p < 0.01), unstable angina (HR: 0.75; 95% CI: 0.64 to 0.89; p < 0.01) and stable angina (HR: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.77 to 1.00; p = 0.05) groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The decision to pursue staged PCI was driven by procedural characteristics and unmeasured site variation and was associated with lower mortality compared with OTMVR. After adjustment, there was an association between staged PCI and reduced mortality. Given the observational nature of these findings, a randomized trial comparing the 2 is needed to guide practice.

Medical Therapy Utilization and Long-Term Outcomes Following Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: Five-Year Results From the Veterans Affairs Clinical Assessment, Reporting, and Tracking System Program

BACKGROUND

Optimal medical therapy is endorsed by national guidelines in the management of ischemic heart disease; however, few studies have examined its long-term utilization following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and association with clinical outcomes. We sought to assess longitudinal trends in medical therapy use after PCI and its prognostic significance.

METHODS AND RESULTS

From the Veteran Affairs Clinical Assessment, Reporting, and Tracking System Program, we retrospectively identified 57 900 Veteran's Affairs patients undergoing PCI from January 2005 to May 2014. Using prescription fill dates, the utilization of 4 classes of medical therapy including statins, β-blockers, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers, P2Y12 inhibitors, and their composites were assessed at discharge, 6 months, 1, 3, and 5 years post-PCI. Multivariable Cox regression models were developed to assess the association between medical therapy status and major adverse cardiovascular events, defined as all-cause mortality, rehospitalization for myocardial infarction, rehospitalization for stroke, or repeat revascularization. At discharge following PCI, 58.3% of patients received all 4 classes of medical therapy. Utilization of statins, β-blockers, and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers decreased from 89%, 84.9%, and 72.2% on discharge, respectively, to 72.7%, 67.9%, and 57.9% at 5 years. Prescription refills of P2Y12 inhibitors declined from 96.5% on discharge to 28.3% at 5 years, driven by a large decline in P2Y12 inhibitor use after 1 year. Use of each class of medical therapy, and its composite use, was associated with a significant reduction in major adverse cardiovascular events at 5 years, with the largest effect size seen by the use of statins (HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.75-0.79; P<0.0001) and P2Y12 inhibitors (HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.79-0.85; P<0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Consistent declines in medical therapy use following PCI were observed over time, which is associated with worse outcomes. Further efforts are needed to promote long-term adherence to secondary prevention therapies after revascularization.

Predicting Hospital Readmissions from Home Healthcare in Medicare Beneficiaries

OBJECTIVE

To use patient-level clinical variables to develop and validate a parsimonious model to predict hospital readmissions from home healthcare (HHC) in Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis using multivariable logistic regression and gradient boosting machine (GBM) learning to develop and validate a predictive model.

SETTING/PARTICIPANTS/MEAUREMENTS

A 5% national sample of patients, aged 65 years or older, with Medicare fee-for-service who received skilled HHC services within 5 days of hospital discharge in 2012 (n = 43 407). Multiple data sets were merged, including Medicare Outcome and Assessment Information Set, Home Health Claims, Medicare Provider Analysis and Review, and Master Beneficiary Summary Files, to extract patient-level variables from the first HHC visit after discharge and measure 30-day readmission outcomes.

RESULTS

Among 43 407 patients with inpatient hospitalizations followed by HHC, 14.7% were readmitted within 30 days. Of the 53 candidate variables, seven remained in the final model as individually predictive of outcome: Elixhauser comorbidity index, index hospital length of stay, urinary catheter presence, patient status (ie, fragile health with high risk of complications or serious progressive condition), two or more hospitalizations in prior year, pressure injury risk or presence, and surgical wound presence. Of interest, surgical wounds, either from a total hip or total knee arthroplasty procedure or another surgical procedure, were associated with fewer readmissions. The optimism-corrected c-statistics for the full model and parsimonious model were 0.67 and 0.66, respectively, indicating fair discrimination. The Brier score for both models was 0.120, indicating good calibration. The GBM model identified similar predictive variables.

CONCLUSION

Variables available to HHC clinicians at the first postdischarge HHC visit can predict readmission risk and inform care plans in HHC. Future analyses incorporating measures of social determinants of health, such as housing instability or social support, have the potential to enhance prediction of this outcome. J Am Geriatr Soc 67:2505-2510, 2019.

Exhaustion of Airway Basal Progenitor Cells in Early and Established Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

RATIONALE

Up to 40% of smokers develop chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) over a period that spans decades. Despite the importance of COPD, much remains to be learned about susceptibility and pathogenesis, especially during early, prediagnostic stages of disease. Airway basal progenitor cells are crucial for lung health and resilience because of their ability to repair injured airways. In COPD, the normal airway epithelium is replaced with increased basal and secretory (mucous) cells and decreased ciliated cells, suggesting that progenitors are impaired.

OBJECTIVES

To examine airway basal progenitor cells and lung function in smokers with and without COPD.

METHODS

Bronchial biopsies taken from smokers at risk for COPD and lung cancer were used to acquire airway basal progenitor cells. They were evaluated for count, self-renewal, and multipotentiality (ability to differentiate to basal, mucous, and ciliated cells), and progenitor count was examined for its relationship with lung function.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Basal progenitor count, self-renewal, and multipotentiality were all reduced in COPD versus non-COPD. COPD progenitors produced an epithelium with increased basal and mucous cells and decreased ciliated cells, replicating the COPD phenotype. Progenitor depletion correlated with lung function and identified a subset of subjects without COPD with lung function that was midway between non-COPD with high progenitor counts and those with COPD.

CONCLUSIONS

Basal progenitor dysfunction relates to the histologic and physiologic manifestations of COPD and identifies a subset that may represent an early, prediagnostic stage of COPD, indicating that progenitor exhaustion is involved in COPD pathogenesis.

Advancing Symptom Alleviation with Palliative Treatment (ADAPT) trial to improve quality of life: a study protocol for a randomized clinical trial

BACKGROUND

People living with chronic heart failure (CHF), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and interstitial lung disease (ILD) suffer impaired quality of life due to burdensome symptoms and depression. The Advancing Symptom Alleviation with Palliative Treatment (ADAPT) trial aims to determine the effect of a multidisciplinary, team-based intervention on quality of life in people with these common diseases.

METHODS/DESIGN

The ADAPT trial is a two-site, patient-level randomized clinical trial that examines the effectiveness of the ADAPT intervention compared to usual care on patient-reported quality of life at 6 months in veterans with CHF, COPD or ILD with poor quality of life and increased risk for hospitalization or death. The ADAPT intervention involves a multidisciplinary team-a registered nurse, social worker, palliative care specialist, and primary care provider (with access to a pulmonologist and cardiologist)-who meet weekly to make recommendations and write orders for consideration by participants' individual primary care providers. The nurse and social worker interact with participants over six visits to identify and manage a primary bothersome symptom and complete a structured psychosocial intervention and advance care planning. The primary outcome is change in patient-reported quality of life at 6 months as measured by the Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy-General questionnaire. Secondary outcomes at 6 months include change in symptom distress, depression, anxiety, disease-specific quality of life hospitalizations, and advance care planning communication and documentation. Intervention implementation will be assessed using a mixed-methods approach including a qualitative assessment of participants' and intervention personnel experiences and a quantitative assessment of care delivery, resources, and cost.

DISCUSSION

The ADAPT trial studies an innovative intervention designed to improve quality of life for veterans with common, burdensome illnesses by targeting key underlying factors-symptoms and depression-that impair quality of life but persist despite disease-specific therapies. Leveraging the skills of affiliate health providers with physician supervision will extend the reach of palliative care and improve quality of life for those with advanced disease within routine outpatient care. The hybrid effectiveness/implementation design of the ADAPT trial will shorten the time to broader dissemination if effective and create avenues for future research.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02713347 . Registered March 19, 2016.

Thermodilution vs Estimated Fick Cardiac Output Measurement in Clinical Practice: An Analysis of Mortality From the Veterans Affairs Clinical Assessment, Reporting, and Tracking (VA CART) Program and Vanderbilt University

Importance

Thermodilution (Td) and estimated oxygen uptake Fick (eFick) methods are widely used to measure cardiac output (CO). They are often used interchangeably to make critical clinical decisions, yet few studies have compared these approaches as applied in medical practice.

Objectives

To assess agreement between Td and eFick CO and to compare how well these methods predict mortality.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This investigation was a retrospective cohort study with up to 1 year of follow-up. The study used data from the Veterans Affairs Clinical Assessment, Reporting, and Tracking (VA CART) program. The findings were corroborated in a cohort of patients cared for at Vanderbilt University, an academic referral center. Participants were more than 15 000 adults who underwent right heart catheterization, including 12 232 in the Veterans Affairs cohort between October 1, 2007, and September 30, 2013, and 3391 in the Vanderbilt cohort between January 1, 1998, and December 31, 2014.

Exposures

A single cardiac catheterization was performed on each patient with CO estimated by both Td and eFick methods. Cardiac output was indexed to body surface area (cardiac index [CI]) for all analyses.

Main Outcomes and Measures

All-cause mortality over 90 days and 1 year after catheterization.

Results

Among 12 232 VA patients (mean [SD] age, 66.4 [9.9] years; 3.3% female) who underwent right heart catheterization in this cohort study, Td and eFick CI estimates correlated modestly (r = 0.65). There was minimal mean difference (eFick minus Td = -0.02 L/min/m2, or -0.4%) but wide 95% limits of agreement between methods (-1.3 to 1.3 L/min/m2, or -50.1% to 49.4%). Estimates differed by greater than 20% for 38.1% of patients. Low Td CI (<2.2 L/min/m2 compared with normal CI of 2.2-4.0 L/min/m2) more strongly predicted mortality than low eFick CI at 90 days (Td hazard ratio [HR], 1.71; 95% CI, 1.47-1.99; χ2 = 49.5 vs eFick HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.22-1.64; χ2 = 20.7) and 1 year (Td HR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.39-1.69; χ2 = 71.5 vs eFick HR, 1.35; 1.22-1.49; χ2 = 35.2). Patients with a normal CI by both methods had 12.3% 1-year mortality. There was no significant additional risk for patients with a normal Td CI but a low eFick CI (12.9%, P = .51), whereas a low Td CI but normal eFick CI was associated with higher mortality (15.4%, P = .001). The results from the Vanderbilt cohort were similar in the context of a more balanced sex distribution (46.6% female).

Conclusions and Relevance

There is only modest agreement between Td and eFick CI estimates. Thermodilution CI better predicts mortality and should be favored over eFick in clinical practice.

Transitional Care Outcomes in Veterans Receiving Post-Acute Care in a Skilled Nursing Facility

BACKGROUND

As the veteran population ages, more veterans are receiving post-acute care in skilled nursing facilities (SNFs). However, the outcomes of these transitions across Veterans Affairs (VA) and non-VA settings are unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To measure adverse outcomes in veterans transitioning from hospital to SNF in VA and non-VA hospitals and SNFs.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational study using the 2012 to 2014 Residential History File, which concatenates VA, Medicare, and Medicaid data into longitudinal episodes of care for veterans.

SETTING

VA and non-VA hospitals and SNFs in four categories: non-VA SNFs, VA-contracted SNFs, VA Community Living Centers (CLCs), and State Veterans Homes.

PARTICIPANTS

Veterans, aged 65 years or older, who were acutely hospitalized and discharged to an SNF; one transition was randomly selected per patient.

MEASUREMENTS

Adverse "transitional care" outcomes were a composite of hospital readmission, emergency department visit, or mortality within 7 days of hospital discharge.

RESULTS

More than four in five veteran transitions (81.7%) occurred entirely outside the VA system. The overall 7-day outcome rate was 10.7% in the 388 339 veterans included. Adverse outcomes were lowest in VA hospital-CLC transitions (7.5%; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 7.1%-7.8%) and highest in non-VA hospital to VA-contracted nursing home transitions (17.5%; 95% CI = 16.0%-18.9%) in unadjusted analysis. In multivariate analyses adjusted for patient and hospital characteristics, VA hospitals had lower adverse outcome rates than non-VA hospitals (odds ratio [OR] = 0.80; 95% CI = 0.74-0.86). In comparison to VA hospital-VA CLC transitions, non-VA hospital to VA-contracted nursing homes (OR = 2.51; 95% CI = 2.09-3.02) and non-VA hospital to CLC (OR = 2.25; 95% CI = 1.81-2.79) had the highest overall adverse outcome rates.

CONCLUSION

Most veteran hospital-SNF transitions occur outside the VA, although adverse transitional care outcomes are lowest inside the VA. These findings raise important questions about the VA's role as a provider and payer of post-acute care in SNFs. J Am Geriatr Soc 67:1820-1826, 2019.

Gluten Intake and Risk of Islet Autoimmunity and Progression to Type 1 Diabetes in Children at Increased Risk of the Disease: The Diabetes Autoimmunity Study in the Young (DAISY)

OBJECTIVE

To study the association of gluten intake with development of islet autoimmunity and progression to type 1 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

The Diabetes Autoimmunity Study in the Young (DAISY) follows children with an increased risk of type 1 diabetes. Blood samples were collected at 9, 15, and 24 months of age, and annually thereafter. Islet autoimmunity was defined by the appearance of at least one autoantibody against insulin, IA2, GAD, or ZnT8 (zinc transporter 8) in at least two consecutive blood samples. Using food frequency questionnaires, we estimated the gluten intake (in grams per day) annually from 1 year of age. Cox regression modeling early gluten intake, and joint modeling of the cumulative gluten intake during follow-up, were used to estimate hazard ratios adjusted for confounders (aHR).

RESULTS

By August 2017, 1,916 subjects were included (median age at end of follow-up 13.5 years), islet autoimmunity had developed in 178 participants, and 56 of these progressed to type 1 diabetes. We found no association between islet autoimmunity and gluten intake at 1-2 years of age or during follow-up (aHR per 4 g/day increase in gluten intake 1.00, 95% CI 0.85-1.17 and 1.01, 0.99-1.02, respectively). We found similar null results for progression from islet autoimmunity to type 1 diabetes. Introduction of gluten at <4 months of age was associated with an increased risk of progressing from islet autoimmunity to type 1 diabetes compared with introduction at 4-5.9 months (aHR 8.69, 95% CI 1.69-44.8).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate no strong rationale to reduce the amount of gluten in high-risk children to prevent development of type 1 diabetes.

Trajectories of Nevus Development From Age 3 to 16 Years in the Colorado Kids Sun Care Program Cohort

Importance

Nevi are a risk factor for melanoma and other forms of skin cancer, and many of the same factors confer risk for both. Understanding childhood nevus development may provide clues to possible causes and prevention of melanoma.

Objectives

To describe nevus acquisition from the ages of 3 to 16 years among white youths and evaluate variation by sex, Hispanic ethnicity, and body sites that are chronically vs intermittently exposed to the sun.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This annual longitudinal observational cohort study of nevus development was conducted between June 1, 2001, and October 31, 2014, among 1085 Colorado youths. Data analysis was conducted between February 1, 2015, and August 31, 2017.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Total nevus counts on all body sites and on sites chronically and intermittently exposed to the sun separately.

Results

A total of 557 girls and 528 boys (150 [13.8%] Hispanic participants) born in 1998 were included in this study. Median total body nevus counts increased linearly among non-Hispanic white boys and girls between the age of 3 years (boys, 6.31; 95% CI, 5.66-7.03; and girls, 6.61; 95% CI, 5.96-7.33) and the age of 16 years (boys, 81.30; 95% CI, 75.95-87.03; and girls, 77.58; 95% CI, 72.68-82.81). Median total body nevus counts were lower among Hispanic white children (boys aged 16 years, 51.45; 95% CI, 44.01-60.15; and girls aged 16 years, 53.75; 95% CI, 45.40-63.62) compared with non-Hispanic white children, but they followed a largely linear trend that varied by sex. Nevus counts on body sites chronically exposed to the sun increased over time but leveled off by the age of 16 years. Nevus counts on sites intermittently exposed to the sun followed a strong linear pattern through the age of 16 years. Hispanic white boys and girls had similar nevus counts on sites intermittently exposed to the sun through the age of 10 years, but increases thereafter were steeper for girls, with nevus counts surpassing those of boys aged 11 to 16 years.

Conclusions and Relevance

Youths are at risk for nevus development beginning in early childhood and continuing through midadolescence. Patterns of nevus acquisition differ between boys and girls, Hispanic and non-Hispanic white youths, and body sites that are chronically exposed to the sun and body sites that are intermittently exposed to the sun. Exposure to UV light during this period should be reduced, particularly on body sites intermittently exposed to the sun, where nevi accumulate through midadolescence in all children. Increased attention to sun protection appears to be merited for boys, in general, because they accumulated more nevi overall, and for girls, specifically, during the adolescent years.

Temporal trends in the management and clinical outcomes of lower extremity arterial thromboembolism within a national Veteran population

Lower extremity arterial thromboembolism is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. We sought to establish temporal trends in the incidence, management and outcomes of lower extremity arterial thromboembolism within the Veterans Affairs Healthcare System (VAHS). We identified patients admitted to VAHS between 2003 and 2014 with a primary diagnosis of lower extremity arterial thromboembolism. Medical and procedural management were ascertained from pharmaceutical and administrative data. Subsequent rates of major adverse limb events (MALE), major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), and mortality were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models. From 2003 to 2014, there were 10,636 patients hospitalized for lower extremity thromboembolism across 140 facilities, of which 8474 patients had adequate comorbid information for analysis. Age-adjusted incidence decreased from 7.98 per 100,000 patients (95% CI: 7.28-8.75) in 2003 to 3.54 (95% CI: 3.14-3.99) in 2014. On average, the likelihood of receiving anti-platelet or anti-thrombotic therapy increased 2.3% (95% CI: 1.2-3.4%) per year during this time period and the likelihood of undergoing endovascular revascularization increased 4.0% (95% CI: 2.7-5.4%) per year. Clinical outcomes remained constant over time, with similar rates of MALE, MACE and mortality at 1 year after adjustment. In conclusion, the incidence of lower extremity arterial thromboembolism is decreasing, with increasing utilization of anti-thrombotic therapies and endovascular revascularization among those with this condition. Despite this evolution in management, patients with lower extremity thromboembolism continue to experience high rates of amputation and death within a year of the index event.

Requirement for MUC5AC in KRAS-dependent lung carcinogenesis

With more than 150,000 deaths per year in the US alone, lung cancer has the highest number of deaths for any cancer. These poor outcomes reflect a lack of treatment for the most common form of lung cancer, non-small cell lung carcinoma (NSCLC). Lung adenocarcinoma (ADC) is the most prevalent subtype of NSCLC, with the main oncogenic drivers being KRAS and epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR). Whereas EGFR blockade has led to some success in lung ADC, effective KRAS inhibition is lacking. KRAS-mutant ADCs are characterized by high levels of gel-forming mucin expression, with the highest mucin levels corresponding to worse prognoses. Despite these well-recognized associations, little is known about roles for individual gel-forming mucins in ADC development causatively. We hypothesized that MUC5AC/Muc5ac, a mucin gene known to be commonly expressed in NSCLC, is crucial in KRAS/Kras-driven lung ADC. We found that MUC5AC was a significant determinant of poor prognosis, especially in patients with KRAS-mutant tumors. In addition, by using mice with lung ADC induced chemically with urethane or transgenically by mutant-Kras expression, we observed significantly reduced tumor development in animals lacking Muc5ac compared with controls. Collectively, these results provide strong support for MUC5AC as a potential therapeutic target for lung ADC, a disease with few effective treatments.

Clinical and laboratory factors contributing to uninterpretable beryllium lymphocyte proliferation tests (BeLPT)

BACKGROUND

The beryllium lymphocyte proliferation test (BeLPT), has become the principal clinical test for detecting beryllium sensitization and chronic beryllium disease. Uninterpretable BeLPT results can occur in a small but significant proportion of tests from poor lymphocyte growth (PG) or over proliferation of lymphocytes (OP). The clinical and laboratory causes of uninterpretable results are not known.

METHODS

BeLPT data from the US Department of Energy-supported Former Worker Screening Program were analyzed for a 10-year period. Drivers of uninterpretable BeLPTs were investigated using multivariable models and classification techniques.

RESULTS

Three participant attributes were significantly associated with PG, while OP showed no significant associations. Serum lot for the lymphocyte growth medium accounted for 21% of the variation in PG and 16% in OP.

CONCLUSION

Serum lots influence the likelihood of having uninterpretable BeLPT. To better understand uninterpretable results and possibly reduce their occurrence, additional laboratory-related factors should be addressed.

The implications of cocaine use and associated behaviors on adverse cardiovascular outcomes among veterans: Insights from the VA Clinical Assessment, Reporting, and Tracking (CART) Program

BACKGROUND

Cocaine use has been associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). It is unclear whether this is due to direct effects of cocaine or other factors.

HYPOTHESIS

Cocaine use is associated with worse outcomes in patients undergoing cardiac catheterization METHODS: We used the Veterans Affairs database to identify veterans undergoing coronary catheterization between 2007 and 2014. We analyzed association between cocaine use and 1-year all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction (MI), and cerebrovascular accident (CVA) among veterans with obstructive CAD (N = 122 035). To explore factors contributing to these associations, we sequentially adjusted for cardiac risk factors, risky behaviors, and clinical conditions directly affected by cocaine.

RESULTS

3082 (2.5%) veterans were cocaine users. Cocaine users were younger (median 58.2 vs 65.3 years; P < 0.001), more likely to be African American (58.9% vs 10.6%; P < 0.001), and had fewer traditional cardiac risk factors. After adjustment for cardiac risk factors, cocaine was associated with increased risk of mortality (HR: 1.23, 95% CI: 1.08-1.39), MI (HR: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.07-1.83), and CVA (HR: 1.88, 95% CI: 1.38-2.57). With continued adjustment, increased CVA risk remained significantly associated with cocaine use, whereas MI risk was mediated by risky behaviors and mortality was fully explained by conditions directly affected by cocaine.

CONCLUSIONS

Cocaine use is associated with adverse cardiac events in veterans with CAD. Contributors to this association are multifaceted and specific to individual cardiovascular outcomes, including associated risky behaviors and direct effects of cocaine. Effective intervention programs to reduce cardiac events in this population will require multiple components addressing these factors.

Coronary artery disease severity modifies associations between glycemic control and both mortality and myocardial infarction

AIMS

This study examined whether the association between hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and short-term clinical outcomes is moderated by CAD severity.

METHODS

We studied 17,394 US Veterans with type 2 diabetes who underwent elective cardiac catheterization between 2005 and 2013. CAD severity was categorized as obstructive, non-obstructive, or no CAD. Using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression, we assessed associations between time-varying HbA1c and two-year all-cause mortality and non-fatal MI, with an interaction term between HbA1c and CAD severity.

RESULTS

61%, 22%, and 17% of participants had obstructive, non-obstructive, and no CAD, respectively. CAD severity modified the relationship between HbA1c and each outcome (interaction p-value 0.0005 for mortality and <0.0001 for MI). Low HbA1c (<42 mmol/mol) was associated with increased mortality, relative to HbA1c of 48-52 mmol/mol, in individuals with obstructive CAD (HR 1.52 [1.17, 1.97]) and non-obstructive CAD (HR 2.61 [1.61, 4.23]), but not in those with no CAD (HR 0.91 [0.46, 1.79]). In contrast, higher HbA1c levels (≥53 mmol/mol) were associated with increased MI risk only in individuals with obstructive CAD.

CONCLUSIONS

The associations between HbA1c and mortality and MI were moderated by CAD severity. Measures of cardiovascular disease severity may inform optimal individualized diabetes management.

The Influence of Female Hormones on Malignant Melanoma

Several lines of biological evidence have suggested a relationship between the behaviour of melanocytes and cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) and the action of female hormones. The present overview, however, indicates that the effect of reproductive, menstrual and hormonal factors, including oral contraceptives, on onset and outcome of CMM must be very weak, if any. The only consistent findings which may suggest a role of female hormones on CMM seem to be: 1) a different distribution by anatomic site in men and women, and 2) a more favorable outcome of CMM in women as compared to men. Neither of them, however, necessarily implies a direct effect of female hormones on CMM.

Predicting Potential Adverse Events During a Skilled Nursing Facility Stay: A Skilled Nursing Facility Prognosis Score

OBJECTIVES

To derive a risk prediction score for potential adverse outcomes in older adults transitioning to a skilled nursing facility (SNF) from the hospital.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis.

SETTING

Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (2003-11).

PARTICIPANTS

Previously community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries who were hospitalized and discharged to SNF for postacute care (N=2,043).

MEASUREMENTS

Risk factors included demographic characteristics, comorbidities, health status, hospital length of stay, prior SNF stays, SNF size and ownership, treatments received, physical function, and active signs or symptoms at time of SNF admission. The primary outcome was a composite of undesirable outcomes from the patient perspective, including hospital readmission during the SNF stay, long SNF stay (≥100 days), and death during the SNF stay.

RESULTS

Of the 2,043 previously community-dwelling beneficiaries hospitalized and discharged to a SNF for post-acute care, 589 (28.8%) experienced one of the three outcomes, with readmission (19.4%) most common, followed by mortality (10.5%) and long SNF stay (3.5%). A risk score including 5 factors (Barthel Index, Charlson-Deyo comorbidity score, hospital length of stay, heart failure diagnosis, presence of an indwelling catheter) demonstrated very good discrimination (C-statistic=0.75), accuracy (Brier score=0.17), and calibration for observed and expected events.

CONCLUSION

Older adults frequently experience potentially adverse outcomes in transitions to a SNF from the hospital; this novel score could be used to better match resources with patient risk.

Same-level fall injuries in US workplaces by age group, gender, and industry

BACKGROUND

As the workforce ages, occupational injuries from falls on the same level will increase. Some industries may be more affected than others.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to estimate same-level fall injury incidence rates by age group, gender, and industry for four sectors: 1) healthcare and social assistance; 2) manufacturing; 3) retail; and 4) transportation and warehousing. We calculated rate ratios and rate differences by age group and gender.

RESULTS

Same-level fall injury incidence rates increase with age in all four sectors. However, patterns of rate ratios and rate differences vary by age group, gender, and industry. Younger workers, men, and manufacturing workers generally have lower rates.

CONCLUSIONS

Variation in incidence rates suggests there are unrealized opportunities to prevent same-level fall injuries. Interventions should be evaluated for their effectiveness at reducing injuries, avoiding gender- or age-discrimination and improving work ability.

Sex-based differences in veterans with pulmonary hypertension: Results from the veterans affairs-clinical assessment reporting and tracking database

Women have an increased risk of pulmonary hypertension (PH) but better survival compared to men. Few studies have explored sex-based differences in population-based cohorts with PH. We sought to determine whether sex was associated with hemodynamics and survival in US veterans with PH (mean pulmonary artery pressure [mPAP] ≥ 25 mm Hg) from the Veterans Affairs Clinical Assessment, Reporting, and Tracking database. The relationship between sex and hemodynamics was assessed with multivariable linear mixed modeling. Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare survival by sex for those with PH and precapillary PH (mPAP ≥ 25 mm Hg, pulmonary artery wedge pressure [PAWP] ≤ 15 mm Hg and pulmonary vascular resistance [PVR] > 3 Wood units) respectively. The study population included 15,464 veterans with PH, 516 (3%) of whom were women; 1,942 patients (13%) had precapillary PH, of whom 120 (6%) were women. Among those with PH, women had higher PVR and pulmonary artery pulse pressure, and lower right atrial pressure and PAWP (all p <0.001) compared with men. There were no significant differences in hemodynamics according to sex in veterans with precapillary PH. Women with PH had 18% greater survival compared to men with PH (adjusted HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.69-0.97, p = 0.020). Similarly, women with precapillary PH were 29% more likely to survive as compared to men with PH (adjusted HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.52-0.98, p = 0.040). In conclusion, female veterans with PH have better survival than males despite higher pulmonary afterload.

Baseline and On-Treatment Characteristics of Serum Tumor Markers in Stage IV Oncogene-Addicted Adenocarcinoma of the Lung

INTRODUCTION

The role of serum tumor markers in the modern management of advanced NSCLC remains poorly described.

METHODS

A single-center retrospective analysis of available carcinoembryonic antigen, CA125, CA19.9, and CA27.29 levels at baseline and during treatment of stage IV lung adenocarcinoma by oncogenic driver was conducted.

RESULTS

A total of 142 patients were analyzed (60 with anaplastic lymphoma kinase gene [ALK] rearrangement, 50 with EGFR mutation, four with ROS1 rearrangement, and 29 with KRAS mutation). Of these, 82% had at least one marker (95% if all four markers were measured), with CA27.29 being the most commonly increased and CA19.9 the rarest. Only CA27.29 differed significantly by oncogene (it was less common in KRAS) (p = 0.016). The median times to nadir during tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) therapy in EGFR and ALK cases were 16.4 and 20 weeks, respectively. Of the 41 patients with EGFR mutation or ALK or ROS1 rearrangement, 24 (59%) demonstrated an initial increase within the first 4 weeks of TKI therapy, 58% of whom then had their levels fall below baseline. An increase in marker level of 10% or more from nadir occurred in 53% of systemic and 22% of central nervous system-only progression.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum tumor markers are frequently increased in lung adenocarcinoma regardless of driver oncogene. Changes within the first 4 weeks of therapy may be misleading. Progression is associated with marker increases, especially in sites other than the central nervous system.

Clinical Utility of Chromosomal Aneusomy in Individuals at High Risk of Lung Cancer

INTRODUCTION

Low-dose computed tomography screening for lung cancer has a high false-positive rate with frequent discovery of indeterminate pulmonary nodules. Noninvasive biomarkers are needed to reduce false positives and improve risk stratification. A retrospective longitudinal evaluation was performed to assess chromosomal aneusomy in sputum by fluorescence in situ hybridization (CA-FISH) in four nested case-control studies.

METHODS

Receiver operating characteristic analysis resulted in two grouped cohorts: a high-risk cohort (Colorado High-Risk Cohort and Colorado Nodule Cohort [68 case patients and 69 controls]) and a screening cohort (American College of Radiology Imaging Network/National Lung Screening Trial and Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study [97 case patients and 185 controls]). The CA-FISH assay was a four-target DNA panel encompassing the EGFR and v-myc avian myelocytomatosis viral oncogene homolog (MYC) genes, and the 5p15 and centromere 6 regions or the fibroblast growth factor 1 gene (FGFR1) and phosphatidylinositol-4,5-bisphosphate 3-kinase catalytic subunit alpha gene (PIK3CA). A four-category scale (normal, probably normal, probably abnormal, and abnormal) was applied. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative likelihood ratios (LRs) (with 95% confidence intervals [CIs]) were estimated for each cohort.

RESULTS

Sensitivity and specificity were, respectively, 0.67 (95% CI: 0.55-0.78) and 0.94 (95% CI: 0.85-0.98) for high-risk participants and 0.20 (95% CI: 0.13-0.30) and 0.84 (95% CI: 0.78-0.89) for screening participants. The positive and negative LRs were, respectively, 11.66 (95% CI: 4.44-30.63) and 0.34 (95% CI: 0.24-0.48) for high-risk participants and 1.36 (95% CI: 0.81-2.28) and 0.93 (95% CI: 0.83-1.05) for screening participants.

CONCLUSION

The high positive LR of sputum CA-FISH indicates that it could be a useful adjunct to low-dose computed tomography for lung cancer in high-risk settings. For screening, however, its low positive LR limits clinical utility. Prospective assessment of CA-FISH in the incidentally identified indeterminate nodule setting is ongoing in the Colorado Pulmonary Nodule Biomarker Trial.

Late-onset islet autoimmunity in childhood: the Diabetes Autoimmunity Study in the Young (DAISY)

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

We sought to assess the frequency, determinants and prognosis for future diabetes in individuals with islet autoimmunity and whether these factors differ depending on the age of onset of islet autoimmunity.

METHODS

A prospective cohort (n = 2547) of children from the general population who had a high-risk HLA genotype and children who had a first-degree relative with type 1 diabetes were followed for up to 21 years. Those with the persistent presence of one or more islet autoantibodies were categorised as early-onset (<8 years of age, n = 143, median 3.3 years) or late-onset (≥8 years of age, n = 64, median 11.1 years), and were followed for a median of 7.4 and 4.7 years, respectively. Progression to diabetes was evaluated by Kaplan-Meier analysis with logrank test. Factors associated with progression to diabetes were analysed using the parametric accelerated failure time model.

RESULTS

Children with late-onset islet autoimmunity were more likely to be Hispanic or African-American than non-Hispanic white (p = 0.004), and less likely to be siblings of individuals with type 1 diabetes (p = 0.04). The frequencies of the HLA-DR3/4 genotype and non-HLA gene variants associated with type 1 diabetes did not differ between the two groups. However, age and HLA-DR3/4 were important predictors of rate of progression to both the presence of additional autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes. Late-onset islet autoimmunity was more likely to present with a single islet autoantibody (p = 0.01) and revert to an antibody-negative state (p = 0.01). Progression to diabetes was significantly slower in children with late-onset islet autoimmunity (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

A late onset of islet autoimmunity is more common in African-American and Hispanic individuals. About half of those with late-onset islet autoimmunity progress to show multiple islet autoantibodies and develop diabetes in adolescence or early adulthood. Further investigation of environmental determinants of late-onset autoimmunity may lead to an understanding of and ability to prevent adolescent and adult-onset type 1 diabetes.