Physician and informal care use explained by the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory (PedsQL) in children with suspected genetic disorders

PURPOSE

To examine associations between Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory (PedsQL) 4.0 Generic Core Scales and PedsQL Infant Scales with formal health care resource utilization (HCRU) and informal caregiver burden.

METHODS

We studied a pediatric cohort of 837 patients (median age: 8.4 years) with suspected genetic disorders enrolled January 2019 through July 2021 in the NYCKidSeq program for diagnostic sequencing. Using linked ~ nine-month longitudinal survey and physician claims data collected through May 2022, we modeled the association between baseline PedsQL scores and post-baseline HCRU (median follow-up: 21.1 months) and informal care. We also assessed the longitudinal change in PedsQL scores with physician services using linear mixed-effects models.

RESULTS

Lower PedsQL total and physical health scores were independently associated with increases in 18-month physician services, encounters, and weekly informal care. Comparing low vs. median total scores, increases were 10.6 services (95% CI: 1.0-24.6), 3.3 encounters (95% CI: 0.5-6.8), and $668 (95% CI: $350-965), respectively. For the psychosocial domain, higher scores were associated with decreased informal care. Based on adjusted linear mixed-effects modeling, every additional ten physician services was associated with diminished improvement in longitudinal PedsQL total score trajectories by 1.1 point (95% confidence interval: 0.6-1.6) on average. Similar trends were observed in the physical and psychosocial domains.

CONCLUSION

PedsQL scores were independently associated with higher utilization of physician services and informal care. Moreover, longitudinal trajectories of PedsQL scores became less favorable with increased physician services. Adding PedsQL survey instruments to conventional measures for improved risk stratification should be evaluated in further research.

The Benefits and Harms of Lung Cancer Screening in Individuals With Comorbidities

Introduction

Individuals with a history of smoking and a high risk of lung cancer often have a high prevalence of smoking-related comorbidities. The presence of these comorbidities might alter the benefit-to-harm ratio of lung cancer screening by influencing the risk of complications, quality of life, and competing risks of death. Nevertheless, individuals with chronic diseases are underrepresented in screening clinical trials. In this study, we use microsimulation modeling to determine the impact of chronic diseases on lung cancer benefits and harms.

Methods

We extended a validated lung cancer screening microsimulation model that comprehensively recapitulates an individual's lung cancer development, progression, detection, follow-up, treatment, and survival. We parameterized the model to reflect the impact of chronic diseases on complications from invasive testing, quality of life, and mortality in individuals in five-year age categories between the ages of 50 and 80 years. Outcomes included life-years (LY) gained per 100,000 in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, heart disease, and history of stroke compared with screening-eligible individuals without comorbidities.

Results

Among individuals between the ages of 50 and 54 years, we found that the presence of a comorbidity altered the LY gained from screening per 100,000 individuals depending on the comorbidity: 4296 LY with no comorbidities; 3462 LY, 3260 LY, 3031 LY, and 3257 LY with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, heart disease, diabetes mellitus, and stroke, respectively. We observed greater reductions in LY gained in individuals with two comorbidities; we observed similar patterns for individuals between the ages of 55 and 59 years, 60 and 64 years, 65 and 69 years, 70 and 74 years, and 75 and 80 years.

Conclusions

Comorbidities reduce LY gained from screening per 100,000 compared with no comorbidities, and our results can be used by clinicians when discussing the benefits and harms of screening in their patients with comorbidities.

Potential Mediators for Treatment Effects of Novel Diabetes Medications on Cardiovascular and Renal Outcomes: A Meta-Regression Analysis

BACKGROUND

Prior research suggests clinical effects of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) and sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) are mediated by changes in glycated hemoglobin, body weight, systolic blood pressure, hematocrit, and urine albumin-creatinine ratio. We aimed to confirm these findings using a meta-analytic approach.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We updated a systematic review of 9 GLP-1RA and 13 SGLT2i trials and summarized longitudinal mediator data. We obtained hazard ratios (HRs) for cardiovascular, renal, and mortality outcomes. We performed linear mixed-effects modeling of LogHRs versus changes in potential mediators and investigated differences in meta-regression associations among drug classes using interaction terms. HRs generally became more protective with greater glycated hemoglobin reduction among GLP-1RA trials, with average HR improvements of 20% to 30%, reaching statistical significance for major adverse cardiovascular events (ΔHR, 23%; P=0.02). Among SGLT2i trials, associations with HRs were not significant and differed from GLP1-RA trials for major adverse cardiovascular events (Pinteraction=0.04). HRs for major adverse cardiovascular events, myocardial infarction, and stroke became less efficacious (ΔHR, -15% to -34%), with more weight loss for SGLT2i but not for GLP-1RA trials (ΔHR, 4%-7%; Pinteraction<0.05). Among 5 SGLT2i trials with available data, HRs for stroke became less efficacious with larger increases in hematocrit (ΔHR, 123%; P=0.09). No changes in HRs by systolic blood pressure (ΔHR, -11% to 9%) and urine albumin-creatinine ratio (ΔHR, -1% to 4%) were found for any outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

We confirmed increased efficacy findings for major adverse cardiovascular events with reduction in glycated hemoglobin for GLP1-RAs. Further research is needed on the potential loss of cardiovascular benefits with increased weight loss and hematocrit for SGLT2i.

Physician services and costs after disclosure of diagnostic sequencing results in the NYCKidSeq program

PURPOSE

To better understand the effects of returning diagnostic sequencing results on clinical actions and economic outcomes for pediatric patients with suspected genetic disorders.

METHODS

Longitudinal physician claims data after diagnostic sequencing were obtained for patients aged 0 to 21 years with neurologic, cardiac, and immunologic disorders with suspected genetic etiology. We assessed specialist consultation rates prompted by primary diagnostic results, as well as marginal effects on overall 18-month physician services and costs.

RESULTS

We included data on 857 patients (median age: 9.6 years) with a median follow-up of 17.3 months after disclosure of diagnostic sequencing results. The likelihood of having ≥1 recommendation for specialist consultation in 155 patients with positive findings was high (72%) vs 23% in 443 patients with uncertain findings and 21% in 259 patients with negative findings (P < .001). Follow-through consultation occurred in 30%. Increases in 18-month physician services and costs following a positive finding diminished after multivariable adjustment. Also, no significant differences between those with uncertain and negative findings were demonstrated.

CONCLUSION

Our study did not provide evidence for significant increases in downstream physician services and costs after returning positive or uncertain diagnostic sequencing findings. More large-scale longitudinal studies are needed to confirm these findings.

Parent-Reported Clinical Utility of Pediatric Genomic Sequencing

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Genomic sequencing (GS) is increasingly used for diagnostic evaluation, yet follow-up care is not well understood. We assessed clinicians' recommendations after GS, parent-reported follow-up, and actions parents initiated in response to learning their child's GS results.

METHODS

We surveyed parents of children who received GS through the Clinical Sequencing Evidence Generating Research consortium ∼5 to 7 months after return of results. We compared the proportion of parents who reported discussing their child's result with a clinician, clinicians' recommendations, and parents' follow-up actions by GS result type using χ2 tests.

RESULTS

A total of 1188 respondents completed survey measures on recommended medical actions (n = 1187) and/or parent-initiated actions (n = 913). Most parents who completed recommended medical actions questions (n = 833, 70.3%) reported having discussed their child's GS results with clinicians. Clinicians made recommendations to change current care for patients with positive GS results (n = 79, 39.1%) more frequently than for those with inconclusive (n = 31, 12.4%) or negative results (n = 44, 11.9%; P < .001). Many parents discussed (n = 152 completed, n = 135 planned) implications of GS results for future pregnancies with a clinician. Aside from clinical recommendations, 13.0% (n = 119) of parents initiated changes to their child's health or lifestyle.

CONCLUSIONS

In diverse pediatric clinical contexts, GS results can lead to recommendations for follow-up care, but they likely do not prompt large increases in the quantity of care received.

Cardiovascular and Renal Benefits of Novel Diabetes Drugs by Baseline Cardiovascular Risk: A Systematic Review, Meta-analysis, and Meta-regression

BACKGROUND

Eligibility for glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) has been expanded to patients with diabetes at lower cardiovascular risk, but whether treatment benefits differ by risk levels is not clear.

PURPOSE

To investigate whether patients with varying risks differ in cardiovascular and renal benefits from GLP-1RA and SGLT2i with use of meta-analysis and meta-regression.

DATA SOURCES

We performed a systematic review using PubMed through 7 November 2022.

STUDY SELECTION

We included reports of GLP-1RA and SGLT2i confirmatory randomized trials in adult patients with safety or efficacy end point data.

DATA EXTRACTION

Hazard ratio (HR) and event rate data were extracted for mortality, cardiovascular, and renal outcomes.

DATA SYNTHESIS

We analyzed 9 GLP-1RA and 13 SGLT2i trials comprising 154,649 patients. Summary HRs were significant for cardiovascular mortality (GLP-1RA 0.87 and SGLT2i 0.86), major adverse cardiovascular events (0.87 and 0.88), heart failure (0.89 and 0.70), and renal (0.84 and 0.65) outcomes. For stroke, efficacy was significant for GLP-1RA (0.84) but not for SGLT2i (0.92). Associations between control arm cardiovascular mortality rates and HRs were nonsignificant. Five-year absolute risk reductions (0.80-4.25%) increased to 11.6% for heart failure in SGLT2i trials in patients with high risk (Pslope < 0.001). For GLP1-RAs, associations were nonsignificant.

LIMITATIONS

Analyses were limited by lack of patient-level data, consistency in end point definitions, and variation in cardiovascular mortality rates for GLP-1RA trials.

CONCLUSIONS

Relative effects of novel diabetes drugs are preserved across baseline cardiovascular risk, whereas absolute benefits increase at higher risks, particularly regarding heart failure. Our findings suggest a need for baseline risk assessment tools to identify variation in absolute treatment benefits and improve decision-making.

The TeleKidSeq pilot study: incorporating telehealth into clinical care of children from diverse backgrounds undergoing whole genome sequencing

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic forced healthcare institutions and many clinical research programs to adopt telehealth modalities in order to mitigate viral spread. With the expanded use of telehealth, there is the potential to increase access to genomic medicine to medically underserved populations, yet little is known about how best to communicate genomic results via telehealth while also ensuring equitable access. NYCKidSeq, a multi-institutional clinical genomics research program in New York City, launched the TeleKidSeq pilot study to assess alternative forms of genomic communication and telehealth service delivery models with families from medically underserved populations.

METHODS

We aim to enroll 496 participants between 0 and 21 years old to receive clinical genome sequencing. These individuals have a neurologic, cardiovascular, and/or immunologic disease. Participants will be English- or Spanish-speaking and predominantly from underrepresented groups who receive care in the New York metropolitan area. Prior to enrollment, participants will be randomized to either genetic counseling via videoconferencing with screen-sharing or genetic counseling via videoconferencing without screen-sharing. Using surveys administered at baseline, results disclosure, and 6-months post-results disclosure, we will evaluate the impact of the use of screen-sharing on participant understanding, satisfaction, and uptake of medical recommendations, as well as the psychological and socioeconomic implications of obtaining genome sequencing. Clinical utility, cost, and diagnostic yield of genome sequencing will also be assessed.

DISCUSSION

The TeleKidSeq pilot study will contribute to innovations in communicating genomic test results to diverse populations through telehealth technology. In conjunction with NYCKidSeq, this work will inform best practices for the implementation of genomic medicine in diverse, English- and Spanish-speaking populations.

Abstract P140: Potential Mediators for Cardiovascular Benefits of Novel Diabetes Medications: A Meta-Regression Analysis

Background: Prior research suggests cardiovascular (CV) benefits of glucose-lowering interventions may be mediated by changes in hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), bodyweight, systolic blood pressure (SBP), hematocrit, and urine albumin-creatinine ratio (uACR). We evaluated the heterogeneity of CV benefits by these potential mediators for sodium-glucose transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) and glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) using a meta-analytic approach.

Methods: We performed a systematic review and meta-regression analyses of 12 SGLT2i and 9 GLP-1RA CV outcome trials using linear mixed models of treatment efficacy measured as log hazard ratios (HRs) vs changes in potential mediators. We extracted follow-up mediator data for treatment and control, preferably at 12 months post randomization. Outcomes included MI, stroke, and MACE (a composite of MI, stroke, or CV death). We investigated slope differences between drug classes using interaction terms and likelihood-ratio tests.

Results: Treatment efficacy for MACE improved with more HbA1c reduction among GLP-1RA (slope .26; P slope .02) but not among SGLT2i trials (slope -.22; P slope .39; P interaction .06), see Figure . Treatment efficacy for MACE, MI, and stroke decreased with more weight loss for SGLT2i (slope –.17, –.29, –.39; P slope <.05) but not for GLP-1RA trials (slope .05, .03, .07; P slope .30, .62, .32). Slopes differed significantly between drug classes: P interaction <.05. For stroke, we observed a trend of less treatment efficacy with increases in hematocrit among five SGLT2i trials with available data (slope .96; P slope .07). We did not find any indication of mediation effects by SBP and uACR for SGLT2i or GLP-1RAs (slopes -.11 -.07; P slopes ≥ .05).

Conclusion: We confirm previous findings of increased CV benefits with reductions in HbA1c for GLP1-RAs. Further research is needed to investigate the potential loss of SGLT2i efficacy with greater weight loss and increase in hematocrit.

Lessons learned while starting multi-institutional genetics research in diverse populations: A report from the Clinical Sequencing Evidence-Generating Research (CSER) consortium

BACKGROUND

Increasing diversity in clinical trial participation is necessary to improve health outcomes and requires addressing existing social, structural, and geographic barriers. The Clinical Sequencing Evidence-Generating Research Consortium (CSER) included six research projects to enroll historically underrepresented/underserved (UR/US) populations in clinical genomics research. Delays and project re-designs emerged shortly after work began. Understanding common experiences of these projects may inform future trial implementation.

METHODS

Semi-structured interviews with six CSER principal investigators and seven project managers were performed. An interview guide included questions of research/clinical infrastructure, logistics across sites, language, communication, and allocation of grant-related resources. Interviews were recorded, transcribed verbatim; transcripts were analyzed using inductive coding, thematic analysis and consensus building.

RESULTS

All projects collaborating with new clinical sub-sites to recruit UR/US populations. Refining trial logistics continued long after enrollment for all projects. Themes of challenges included: sub-site customization for workflow and genetics support, conflicting input from participant advisory groups and approval bodies, developing research personnel, complex data management structures, and external changes (e.g. subcontractors ending contracts) that required redesign. Themes of beneficial lessons included: domains with prior experience were easier, develop project champions at each sub-site, structure communication within the research team, and simplify research design when possible.

CONCLUSIONS

The operational aspects of expanding clinical research into novel sub-sites are significant and require investment of time and resources. The themes arising from these interviews suggest priority areas for more quantitative analyses in the future including multi-institutional approval policies and processes, data management structures, and incremental research complexity.

Cost-effectiveness frameworks for comparing genome and exome sequencing versus conventional diagnostic pathways: A scoping review and recommended methods

PURPOSE

Methodological challenges have limited economic evaluations of genome sequencing (GS) and exome sequencing (ES). Our objective was to develop conceptual frameworks for model-based cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of diagnostic GS/ES.

METHODS

We conducted a scoping review of economic analyses to develop and iterate with experts a set of conceptual CEA frameworks for GS/ES for prenatal testing, early diagnosis in pediatrics, diagnosis of delayed-onset disorders in pediatrics, genetic testing in cancer, screening of newborns, and general population screening.

RESULTS

Reflecting on 57 studies meeting inclusion criteria, we recommend the following considerations for each clinical scenario. For prenatal testing, performing comparative analyses of costs of ES strategies and postpartum care, as well as genetic diagnoses and pregnancy outcomes. For early diagnosis in pediatrics, modeling quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs over ≥20 years for rapid turnaround GS/ES. For hereditary cancer syndrome testing, modeling cumulative costs and QALYs for the individual tested and first/second/third-degree relatives. For tumor profiling, not restricting to treatment uptake or response and including QALYs and costs of downstream outcomes. For screening, modeling lifetime costs and QALYs and considering consequences of low penetrance and GS/ES reanalysis.

CONCLUSION

Our frameworks can guide the design of model-based CEAs and ultimately foster robust evidence for the economic value of GS/ES.

Lifetime Cardiovascular Disease Risk by Coronary Artery Calcium Score in Individuals With and Without Diabetes: An Analysis From the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

OBJECTIVE

To assess lifetime cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk by coronary artery calcium (CAC) score in individuals with diabetes from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) and compare risk with that in individuals without diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We developed a microsimulation model with well, diabetes, post-CVD, and death health states using multivariable time-dependent Cox regression with age as time scale. We initially used 10-year follow-up data of 6,769 MESA participants, including coronary heart disease (CHD) (n = 272), heart failure (n = 201), stroke (n = 186), and competing death (n = 619) and assessed predictive validity at 15 years. We externally validated the model in matched National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) participants. Subsequently, we predicted CVD risk until age 100 years by diabetes, 10-year pooled cohort equations risk, and CAC score category (0, 1-100, or 100+).

RESULTS

The model showed good calibration and discriminative performance at 15 years, with discrimination indices 0.71-0.78 across outcomes. In the NHANES cohort, predicted 15-year mortality risk corresponded well with Kaplan-Meier risk, especially for those with diabetes: 29.6% (95% CI 24.9-34.8) vs. 32.4% (95% CI 27.2-37.2), respectively. Diabetes increased lifetime CVD risk, similar to shifting one CAC category upward (from 0 to 1-100 or from 1-100 to 100+). Patients with diabetes and CAC score of 0 had a lifetime CVD risk that overlapped with that of individuals without diabetes who were at low 10-year pooled cohort equations risk (<7.5%).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with diabetes carry a spectrum of CVD risk. CAC scoring may improve decisions for preventive interventions for patients with diabetes by better delineating lifetime CVD risk.

Active Surveillance Strategies for Low-Grade Prostate Cancer: Comparative Benefits and Cost-effectiveness

Background Active surveillance (AS) is the recommended treatment option for low-risk prostate cancer (PC). Surveillance varies in MRI, frequency of follow-up, and the Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) score that would repeat biopsy. Purpose To compare the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of AS strategies for low-risk PC with versus without MRI. Materials and Methods This study developed a mathematical model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of surveillance strategies in a simulation of men with a diagnosis of low-risk PC. The following strategies were compared: watchful waiting, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and annual biopsy without MRI, and PSA testing and MRI with varied PI-RADS thresholds for biopsy. MRI strategies differed regarding scheduling and use of PI-RADS score of at least 3, or a PI-RADS score of at least 4 to indicate the need for biopsy. Life-years, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated by using microsimulation. Sensitivity analysis was used to assess the impact of varying parameter values on results. Results For the base case of 60-year-old men, all strategies incorporating prostate MRI extended QALYs and life-years compared with watchful waiting and non-MRI strategies. Annual MRI strategies yielded 16.19 QALYs, annual biopsy with no MRI yielded 16.14 QALYs, and watchful waiting yielded 15.94 QALYs. Annual MRI with PI-RADS score of at least 3 or of at least 4 as the biopsy threshold and annual MRI with biopsy even after MRI with negative findings offered similar QALYs and the same unadjusted life expectancy: 23.05 life-years. However, a PI-RADS score of at least 4 yielded 42% fewer lifetime biopsies. With a cost-effectiveness threshold of $100 000 per QALY, annual MRI with biopsy for lesions with PI-RADS scores of 4 or greater was most cost-effective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, $67 221 per QALY). Age, treatment type, risk of initial grade misclassification, and quality-of-life impact of procedural complications affected results. Conclusion The use of active surveillance (AS) with biopsy decisions guided by findings from annual MRI reduces the number of biopsies while preserving life expectancy and quality of life. Biopsy in lesions with PI-RADS scores of 4 or greater is likely the most cost-effective AS strategy for men with low-risk prostate cancer who are younger than 70 years. © RSNA, 2021 Online supplemental material is available for this article. An earlier incorrect version appeared online. This article was corrected on July 13, 2021.

Long-term Predictions of Incident Coronary Artery Calcium to 85 Years of Age for Asymptomatic Individuals With and Without Type 2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

To examine the utility of repeated computed tomography (CT) coronary artery calcium (CAC) testing, we assessed risks of detectable CAC and its cardiovascular consequences in individuals with and without type 2 diabetes ages 45-85 years.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We included 5,836 individuals (618 with type 2 diabetes, 2,972 without baseline CAC) from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. With logistic and Cox regression we evaluated the impact of type 2 diabetes, diabetes treatment duration, and other predictors on prevalent and incident CAC. We used time-dependent Cox modeling of follow-up data (median 15.9 years) for two repeat CT exams and cardiovascular events to assess the association of CAC at follow-up CT with cardiovascular events.

RESULTS

For 45 year olds with type 2 diabetes, the likelihood of CAC at baseline was 23% vs. 17% for those without. Median age at incident CAC was 52.2 vs. 62.3 years for those with and without diabetes, respectively. Each 5 years of diabetes treatment increased the odds and hazard rate of CAC by 19% (95% CI 8-33) and 22% (95% CI 6-41). Male sex, White ethnicity/race, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, obesity, and low serum creatinine also increased CAC. CAC at follow-up CT independently increased coronary heart disease rates.

CONCLUSIONS

We estimated cumulative CAC incidence to age 85 years. Patients with type 2 diabetes develop CAC at a younger age than those without diabetes. Because incident CAC is associated with increased coronary heart disease risk, the value of periodic CAC-based risk assessment in type 2 diabetes should be evaluated.

Estimated Health Care Utilization and Expenditures in Individuals With Heart Failure From the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) constitutes a growing burden for public health and the US health care system. While the prevalence of HF is increasing, differences in health care utilization and expenditures within various sociodemographic groups remain poorly defined.

METHODS

We used the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey to assess annual health care utilization and expenditures from 2012 to 2017. Health care utilization was based on the annual frequency of various health care encounters. Annual total and out-of-pocket expenditures were evaluated for hospital inpatient stays, emergency room visits, outpatient visits, office-based medical provider visits, prescribed medicines, dental visits, home health aid visits, and other medical expenses. We performed univariable and multivariable regression analysis based on patient characteristics including sociodemographic and comorbidity variables.

RESULTS

Our results showed that total health care expenditures among patients with HF were $21 177 (95% CI, $18 819-$24 736) per year as compared with $5652 (95% CI, $5469-$5837) in those without HF (P<0.001). Total expenditures within the population with HF were primarily being driven by expenditures associated with inpatient hospitalizations. Increasing number of comorbid conditions was associated with significant increases in total health care expenditures. Older age, female sex, earlier study years, number of comorbidities, higher level of education, and increasing family income brackets independently raised out-of-pocket expenditures.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings of increased health care utilization and expenditures based on sex, age, increasing number of comorbidities, wealthier income status, and increased education attainment level may be used for efforts aimed at better distributing health care resources to improve health outcomes in HF.

To ban or not to ban tanning bed use for minors: A cost-effectiveness analysis from multiple US perspectives for invasive melanoma

BACKGROUND

Tanning bed use is common among US adolescents, but is associated with increased melanoma risk. The decision to ban tanning bed use by adolescents should be made in consideration of the potential health benefits and costs.

METHODS

The US population aged 14 to 17 years was modeled by microsimulation, which compared ban versus no ban strategies. Lifetime quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs were estimated from a health care sector perspective and two societal perspectives: with and without the costs of policy enforcement and the economic losses of the indoor-tanning bed industry.

RESULTS

Full adherence to the ban prevented 15,102 melanoma cases and 3299 recurrences among 17.1 million minors, saving $61in formal and informal health care costs per minor and providing an increase of 0.0002 QALYs. Despite the intervention costs of the ban and the economic losses to the indoor-tanning industry, banning was still the dominant strategy, with a savings of $12 per minor and $205.4 million among 17.1 million minors. Findings were robust against varying inspection costs and ban compliance, but were sensitive to lower excess risk of melanoma with early exposure to tanning beds.

CONCLUSIONS

A ban on tanning beds for minors potentially lowers costs and increases cost effectiveness. Even after accounting for the costs of implementing a ban, it may be considered cost effective. Even after accounting for the costs of implementing a ban and economic losses in the indoor-tanning industry, a tanning bed ban for US minors may be considered cost effective. A ban has the potential to reduce the number of melanoma cases while decreasing health care costs.

LAY SUMMARY

Previous meta-analyses have linked tanning bed use with an increased risk of melanoma, particularly with initial use at a young age. Yet, it remains unclear whether a ban of adolescents would be cost effective. Overall, a ban has the potential to reduce the number of melanoma cases while promoting a decrease in health care costs. Even after accounting for the costs of implementing a ban and the economic losses incurred by the indoor-tanning industry, a ban would be cost effective.

Establishing the value of genomics in medicine: the IGNITE Pragmatic Trials Network

PURPOSE

A critical gap in the adoption of genomic medicine into medical practice is the need for the rigorous evaluation of the utility of genomic medicine interventions.

METHODS

The Implementing Genomics in Practice Pragmatic Trials Network (IGNITE PTN) was formed in 2018 to measure the clinical utility and cost-effectiveness of genomic medicine interventions, to assess approaches for real-world application of genomic medicine in diverse clinical settings, and to produce generalizable knowledge on clinical trials using genomic interventions. Five clinical sites and a coordinating center evaluated trial proposals and developed working groups to enable their implementation.

RESULTS

Two pragmatic clinical trials (PCTs) have been initiated, one evaluating genetic risk APOL1 variants in African Americans in the management of their hypertension, and the other to evaluate the use of pharmacogenetic testing for medications to manage acute and chronic pain as well as depression.

CONCLUSION

IGNITE PTN is a network that carries out PCTs in genomic medicine; it is focused on diversity and inclusion of underrepresented minority trial participants; it uses electronic health records and clinical decision support to deliver the interventions. IGNITE PTN will develop the evidence to support (or oppose) the adoption of genomic medicine interventions by patients, providers, and payers.

Estimating Long-Term Health Utility Scores and Expenditures for Cardiovascular Disease From the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey

BACKGROUND

Long-term health utility scores and costs used in cost-effectiveness analyses of cardiovascular disease prevention and management can be inconsistent, outdated, or invalid for the diverse population of the United States. Our aim was to develop a user friendly, standardized, publicly available code and catalog to derive more valid long-term values for health utility and expenditures following cardiovascular disease events.

METHODS

Individual-level Short Form-12 version 2 health-related quality of life and expenditure data were obtained from the pooled 2011 to 2016 Medical Expenditure Panel Surveys. We developed code using the R programming language to estimate preference-weighted Short Form-6D utility scores from the Short Form-12 for quality-adjusted life year calculations and predict annual health care expenditures. Result predictors included cardiovascular disease diagnosis (myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, heart failure, cardiac dysrhythmias, angina pectoris, and peripheral artery disease), sociodemographic factors, and comorbidity variables.

RESULTS

The cardiovascular disease diagnoses with the lowest utility scores were heart failure (0.635 [95% CI, 0.615-0.655]), angina pectoris (0.649 [95% CI, 0.630-0.667]), and ischemic stroke (0.649 [95% CI, 0.635-0.663]). The highest annual expenditures were for heart failure ($20 764 [95% CI, $17 500-$24 027]), angina pectoris ($18 428 [95% CI, $16 102-$20 754]), and ischemic stroke ($16 925 [95% CI, $15 672-$20 616]).

CONCLUSIONS

The developed code and catalog may improve the quality and comparability of cost-effectiveness analyses by providing standardized methods for extracting long-term health utility scores and expenditures from Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data, which are more current and representative of the US population than previous sources.

Strategies of Wait-listing for Heart Transplant vs Durable Mechanical Circulatory Support Alone for Patients With Advanced Heart Failure

Importance

Given the shortage of donor hearts and improvement in outcomes with left ventricular assist device (LVAD) therapy, a relevant but, to date, unanswered question is whether select patients with advanced heart failure should receive LVAD destination therapy as an alternative to heart transplant.

Objective

To determine whether a strategy of LVAD destination therapy is associated with similar survival benefit as wait-listing for heart transplant with or without LVAD therapy among patients with advanced heart failure.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective propensity-matched cohort analysis used data on heart transplants from the United Network for Organ Sharing registry and LVAD implants from the Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2014. The matched LVAD destination therapy cohort included 3411 patients. Data analysis for this study was conducted from December 22, 2017, to May 24, 2019.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Survival at 5 years was analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models.

Results

In total, 8281 patients had albumin level, creatinine level, and BMI data recorded and were included in the analysis. Despite propensity score matching, the 3411 patients receiving LVAD destination therapy still tended to be slightly older than the 3411 patients wait-listed for heart transplant (64.0 years [interquartile range, 55.0-70.0 years] vs 60.0 [interquartile range, 54.0-65.0 years]; P < .001), but there was no significant difference in sex (2701 men [79.2%] vs 2648 men [77.6%]; P = .13). After propensity score matching for age, sex, body mass index, renal function, and albumin level, 3411 patients were wait-listed for heart transplant. This included 1607 patients with bridge to transplant LVAD therapy and 1804 patients without LVAD. The strategy of wait-listing for heart transplant was associated with better 5-year survival than LVAD destination therapy (risk ratio, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.38-0.46) after matching and adjusting for key clinical factors. This survival advantage was associated with heart transplant (adjusted risk ratio for time-dependent transplant status, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.24-0.32).

Conclusions and Relevance

The present analysis suggests that heart transplant with or without bridge to transplant LVAD therapy was associated with superior 5-year survival compared with LVAD destination therapy among patients matched on several relevant clinical factors. Continued improvement in LVAD technology, along with prospective comparative research, appears to be needed to amend this strategy.

The NYCKidSeq project: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial incorporating genomics into the clinical care of diverse New York City children

BACKGROUND

Increasingly, genomics is informing clinical practice, but challenges remain for medical professionals lacking genetics expertise, and in access to and clinical utility of genomic testing for minority and underrepresented populations. The latter is a particularly pernicious problem due to the historical lack of inclusion of racially and ethnically diverse populations in genomic research and genomic medicine. A further challenge is the rapidly changing landscape of genetic tests and considerations of cost, interpretation, and diagnostic yield for emerging modalities like whole-genome sequencing.

METHODS

The NYCKidSeq project is a randomized controlled trial recruiting 1130 children and young adults predominantly from Harlem and the Bronx with suspected genetic disorders in three disease categories: neurologic, cardiovascular, and immunologic. Two clinical genetic tests will be performed for each participant, either proband, duo, or trio whole-genome sequencing (depending on sample availability) and proband targeted gene panels. Clinical utility, cost, and diagnostic yield of both testing modalities will be assessed. This study will evaluate the use of a novel, digital platform (GUÍA) to digitize the return of genomic results experience and improve participant understanding for English- and Spanish-speaking families. Surveys will collect data at three study visits: baseline (0 months), result disclosure visit (ROR1, + 3 months), and follow-up visit (ROR2, + 9 months). Outcomes will assess parental understanding of and attitudes toward receiving genomic results for their child and behavioral, psychological, and social impact of results. We will also conduct a pilot study to assess a digital tool called GenomeDiver designed to enhance communication between clinicians and genetic testing labs. We will evaluate GenomeDiver's ability to increase the diagnostic yield compared to standard practices, improve clinician's ability to perform targeted reverse phenotyping, and increase the efficiency of genetic testing lab personnel.

DISCUSSION

The NYCKidSeq project will contribute to the innovations and best practices in communicating genomic test results to diverse populations. This work will inform strategies for implementing genomic medicine in health systems serving diverse populations using methods that are clinically useful, technologically savvy, culturally sensitive, and ethically sound.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03738098 . Registered on November 13, 2018 Trial Sponsor: Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai Contact Name: Eimear Kenny, PhD (Principal Investigator) Address: Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, One Gustave L. Levy Pl., Box 1003, New York, NY 10029 Email: eimear.kenny@mssm.edu.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Selective Internal Radiotherapy With Yttrium-90 Versus Sorafenib in Locally Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma

PURPOSE

The recent sorafenib versus radioembolization in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (SARAH) and selective internal radiation therapy versus sorafenib in locally advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (SIRveNIB) trials showed no statistically significant difference in overall survival for randomization to selective internal radiotherapy (SIRT) versus sorafenib for locally advanced hepatocellular carcinoma, although SIRT was better tolerated. Given the high cost of both treatments, we investigated their comparative cost-effectiveness from a US healthcare sector perspective.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We constructed a state-transition microsimulation model to simulate patients allocated to SIRT versus sorafenib according to an intention-to-treat principle. Hazard rates of disease progression and death were based on pooled individual patient data generated from the SARAH and SIRveNIB trials' Kaplan-Meier curves. Inputs for adverse events, treatment adherence, and quality of life utility weights were derived from trial data as well. Costs were based on Medicare reimbursement rates and literature. We performed probabilistic sensitivity analysis and estimated costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) over a 5-year time horizon. We evaluated sensitivity to uncertainty of key model parameters.

RESULTS

Costs were $78,859 v $58,397 (difference $20,462; 95% uncertainty interval $14,444 to 27,205) and QALYs were 0.88 v 0.87 (difference 0.02, -0.02 to 0.05) for sorafenib versus SIRT, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of sorafenib was $1,280,224/QALY. The likelihood that sorafenib would be cost effective did not exceed 1%, assuming cost-effectiveness thresholds up to $200k/QALY. If the monthly price of sorafenib decreased from $16,390 to below $7,000, the ICER of sorafenib fell below $200k/QALY, and an ICER < $100k/QALY was reached if the monthly price fell below $6,600.

CONCLUSION

Sorafenib is unlikely to provide a gain in quality-adjusted survival compared with SIRT at an acceptable cost for the US healthcare sector. Only if the current price decreased by more than 50% would sorafenib be considered economically attractive.

Developing an Institute for Health Care Delivery Science: successes, challenges, and solutions in the first five years

Medical knowledge is increasing at an exponential rate. At the same time, unexplained variations in practice and patient outcomes and unacceptable rates of medical errors and inefficiencies in health care delivery have emerged. Our Institute for Health Care Delivery Science (I-HDS) began in 2014 as a novel platform to conduct multidisciplinary healthcare delivery research. We followed ten strategies to develop a successful institute with excellence in methodology and strong understanding of the value of team science. Our work was organized around five hubs: 1) Quality/Process Improvement and Systematic Review, 2) Comparative Effectiveness Research, Pragmatic Clinical Trials, and Predictive Analytics, 3) Health Economics and Decision Modeling, 4) Qualitative, Survey, and Mixed Methods, and 5) Training and Mentoring. In the first 5 years of the I-HDS, we have identified opportunities for change in clinical practice through research using our health system's electronic health record (EHR) data, and designed programs to educate clinicians in the value of research to improve patient care and recognize efficiencies in processes. Testing the value of several model interventions has guided prioritization of evidence-based quality improvements. Some of the changes in practice have already been embedded in the EHR workflow successfully. Development and sustainability of the I-HDS has been fostered by a mix of internal and external funding, including philanthropic foundations. Challenges remain due to the highly competitive funding environment and changes needed to adapt the EHR to healthcare delivery research. Further stakeholder engagement and culture change working with hospital leadership and I-HDS core and affiliate members continues.

Cost-effectiveness of Contemporary Statin Use Guidelines With or Without Coronary Artery Calcium Assessment in African American Individuals

Importance

Clinical and economic consequences of statin treatment guidelines supplemented by targeted coronary artery calcium (CAC) assessment have not been evaluated in African American individuals, who are at increased risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and less likely than non-African American individuals to receive statin therapy.

Objective

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guideline without a recommendation for CAC assessment vs the 2018 ACC/AHA guideline recommendation for use of a non-0 CAC score measured on one occasion to target generic-formulation, moderate-intensity statin treatment in African American individuals at risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A microsimulation model was designed to estimate life expectancy, quality of life, costs, and health outcomes over a lifetime horizon. African American-specific data from 472 participants in the Jackson Heart Study (JHS) at intermediate risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and other US population-specific data on individuals from published sources were used. Data analysis was conducted from November 11, 2018, to November 1, 2019.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), discounted at 3% annually.

Results

In a model-based economic evaluation informed in part by follow-up data, the analysis was focused on 472 individuals in the JHS at intermediate risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease; mean (SD) age was 63 (6.7) years. The sample included 243 women (51.5%) and 229 men (48.5%). Of these, 178 of 304 participants (58.6%) who underwent CAC assessment had a non-0 CAC score. In the base-case scenario, implementation of 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines without CAC assessment provided a greater quality-adjusted life expectancy (0.0027 QALY) at a higher cost ($428.97) compared with the 2018 ACC/AHA guideline strategy with CAC assessment, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $158 325/QALY, which is considered to represent low-value care by the ACC/AHA definition. The 2018 ACC/AHA guideline strategy with CAC assessment provided greater quality-adjusted life expectancy at a lower cost compared with the 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines without CAC assessment when there was a strong patient preference to avoid use of daily medication therapy. In probability sensitivity analyses, the 2018 ACC/AHA guideline strategy with CAC assessment was cost-effective compared with the 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines without CAC assessment in 76% of simulations at a willingness-to-pay value of $100 000/QALY when there was a preference to lose 2 weeks of perfect health to avoid 1 decade of daily therapy.

Conclusions and Relevance

A CAC assessment-guided strategy for statin therapy appears to be cost-effective compared with initiating statin therapy in all African American individuals at intermediate risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and may provide greater quality-adjusted life expectancy at a lower cost than a non-CAC assessment-guided strategy when there is a strong patient preference to avoid the need for daily medication. Coronary artery calcium testing may play a role in shared decision-making regarding statin use.

Gadoxetate-enhanced abbreviated MRI is highly accurate for hepatocellular carcinoma screening

OBJECTIVES

The primary objective was to compare the performance of 3 different abbreviated MRI (AMRI) sets extracted from a complete gadoxetate-enhanced MRI obtained for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening. Secondary objective was to perform a preliminary cost-effectiveness analysis, comparing each AMRI set to published ultrasound performance for HCC screening in the USA.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 237 consecutive patients (M/F, 146/91; mean age, 58 years) with chronic liver disease who underwent a complete gadoxetate-enhanced MRI for HCC screening in 2017 in a single institution. Two radiologists independently reviewed 3 AMRI sets extracted from the complete exam: non-contrast (NC-AMRI: T2-weighted imaging (T2wi)+diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI)), dynamic-AMRI (Dyn-AMRI: T2wi+DWI+dynamic T1wi), and hepatobiliary phase AMRI (HBP-AMRI: T2wi+DWI+T1wi during the HBP). Each patient was classified as HCC-positive/HCC-negative based on the reference standard, which consisted in all available patient data. Diagnostic performance for HCC detection was compared between sets. Estimated set characteristics, including historical ultrasound data, were incorporated into a microsimulation model for cost-effectiveness analysis.

RESULTS

The reference standard identified 13/237 patients with HCC (prevalence, 5.5%; mean size, 33.7 ± 30 mm). Pooled sensitivities were 61.5% for NC-AMRI (95% confidence intervals, 34.4-83%), 84.6% for Dyn-AMRI (60.8-95.1%), and 80.8% for HBP-AMRI (53.6-93.9%), without difference between sets (p range, 0.06-0.16). Pooled specificities were 95.5% (92.4-97.4%), 99.8% (98.4-100%), and 94.9% (91.6-96.9%), respectively, with a significant difference between Dyn-AMRI and the other sets (p < 0.01). All AMRI methods were effective compared with ultrasound, with life-year gain of 3-12 months against incremental costs of US$ < 12,000.

CONCLUSIONS

NC-AMRI has limited sensitivity for HCC detection, while HBP-AMRI and Dyn-AMRI showed excellent sensitivity and specificity, the latter being slightly higher for Dyn-AMRI. Cost-effectiveness estimates showed that AMRI is effective compared with ultrasound.

KEY POINTS

• Comparison of different abbreviated MRI (AMRI) sets reconstructed from a complete gadoxetate MRI demonstrated that non-contrast AMRI has low sensitivity (61.5%) compared with contrast-enhanced AMRI (80.8% for hepatobiliary phase AMRI and 84.6% for dynamic AMRI), with all sets having high specificity. • Non-contrast and hepatobiliary phase AMRI can be performed in less than 14 min (including set-up time), while dynamic AMRI can be performed in less than 17 min. • All AMRI sets were cost-effective for HCC screening in at-risk population in comparison with ultrasound.

Pacemaker Implantation After Mitral Valve Surgery With Atrial Fibrillation Ablation

BACKGROUND

The incidence of permanent pacemaker (PPM) implantation is higher following mitral valve surgery (MVS) with ablation for atrial fibrillation (AF) compared with MVS alone.

OBJECTIVES

This study identified risk factors and outcomes associated with PPM implantation in a randomized trial that evaluated ablation for AF in patients who underwent MVS.

METHODS

A total of 243 patients with AF and without previous PPM placement were randomly assigned to MVS alone (n = 117) or MVS + ablation (n = 126). Patients in the ablation group were further randomized to pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) (n = 62) or the biatrial maze procedure (n = 64). Using competing risk models, this study examined the association among PPM and baseline and operative risk factors, and the effect of PPM on time to discharge, readmissions, and 1-year mortality.

RESULTS

Thirty-five patients received a PPM within the first year (14.4%), 29 (83%) underwent implantation during the index hospitalization. The frequency of PPM implantation was 7.7% in patients randomized to MVS alone, 16.1% in MVS + PVI, and 25% in MVS + biatrial maze. The indications for PPM were similar among patients who underwent MVS with and without ablation. Ablation, multivalve surgery, and New York Heart Association functional (NYHA) functional class III/IV were independent risk factors for PPM implantation. Length of stay post-surgery was longer in patients who received PPMs, but it was not significant when adjusted for randomization assignment (MVS vs. ablation) and age (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.81; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.61 to 1.08; p = 0.14). PPM implantation did not increase 30-day readmission rate (HR: 1.43; 95% CI: 0.50 to 4.05; p = 0.50). The need for PPM was associated with a higher risk of 1-year mortality (HR: 3.21; 95% CI: 1.01 to 10.17; p = 0.05) after adjustment for randomization assignment, age, and NYHA functional class.

CONCLUSIONS

AF ablation, multivalve surgery, and NYHA functional class III/IV were associated with an increased risk for permanent pacing. PPM implantation following MVS was associated with a significant increase in 1-year mortality. (Surgical Ablation Versus No Surgical Ablation for Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Undergoing Mitral Valve Surgery; NCT00903370).

Pathological downstaging as a novel endpoint for the development of neoadjuvant chemotherapy for upper tract urothelial carcinoma

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate whether pathological downstaging (pDS) was more informative in predicting overall survival (OS) than pathological complete response (pCR) in patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) for upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The National Cancer Database was queried for patients with high-grade cN0M0 disease who had received NAC. pDS was defined as a decrease of at least one stage from cT to pT stage along with pN0, including pCR. A multivariable Cox model predicting OS was generated by fitting alternatively either pDS or pCR, and adjusted for potential confounders. The discrimination of the Cox models for predicting OS was evaluated using Harrell's C-index. The analyses were repeated in patients diagnosed as having cT2-4N0M0 disease.

RESULTS

Among 264 patients meeting the inclusion criteria, 72 (27%) and 39 (15%) achieved pDS and pCR, respectively. On multivariable analysis, both pDS (hazard ratio [HR] 0.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.13, 0.45; P < 0.001) and pCR (HR 0.37, 95% CI 0.18, 0.79; P = 0.01) were associated with OS. The model including pDS achieved better discrimination with respect to the model including pCR: C-index 76.4 vs 72.7, respectively. In the 128 patients diagnosed with cT2-4 disease, both pDS (HR 0.19, 95% CI 0.09, 0.40; P < 0.001) and pCR (HR 0.31, 95% CI 0.11, 0.85; P = 0.023) were confirmed as predictors of OS. The model including pDS was confirmed to discriminate better than the model including pCR: C-index 75 vs 68.9, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The study showed that pDS after NAC for UTUC was more informative than pCR when predicting OS. These findings, although requiring prospective validation, can aid in the design of clinical trials seeking to refine the use of chemotherapy and other systemic therapies in this setting.

Cost-effectiveness of coronary artery bypass grafting plus mitral valve repair versus coronary artery bypass grafting alone for moderate ischemic mitral regurgitation

OBJECTIVE

The Cardiothoracic Surgical Trials Network reported that left ventricular reverse remodeling at 2 years did not differ between patients with moderate ischemic mitral regurgitation randomized to coronary artery bypass grafting plus mitral valve repair (n = 150) or coronary artery bypass grafting alone (n = 151). To address health resource use implications, we compared costs and quality-adjusted survival.

METHODS

We used individual patient data from the Cardiothoracic Surgical Trials Network trial on survival, hospitalizations, quality of life, and US hospitalization costs to estimate cumulative costs and quality-adjusted life years. A microsimulation model was developed to extrapolate to 10 years. Bootstrap and deterministic sensitivity analyses were performed to address uncertainty.

RESULTS

In-hospital costs were $59,745 for coronary artery bypass grafting plus mitral valve repair versus $51,326 for coronary artery bypass grafting alone (difference $8419; 95% uncertainty interval, 2259-18,757). Two-year costs were $81,263 versus $67,341 (difference 13,922 [2370 to 28,888]), and quality-adjusted life years were 1.35 versus 1.30 (difference 0.05; -0.04 to 0.14), resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $308,343/quality-adjusted life year for coronary artery bypass grafting plus mitral valve repair. At 10 years, its costs remained higher ($107,733 vs $88,583, difference 19,150 [-3866 to 56,826]) and quality-adjusted life years showed no difference (-0.92 to 0.87), with 5.08 versus 5.08. The likelihood that coronary artery bypass grafting plus mitral valve repair would be considered cost-effective at 10 years based on a cost-effectiveness threshold of $100K/quality-adjusted life year did not exceed 37%. Only when this procedure reduces the death rate by a relative 5% will the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio fall below $100K/quality-adjusted life year.

CONCLUSIONS

The addition of mitral valve repair to coronary artery bypass grafting for patients with moderate ischemic mitral regurgitation is unlikely to be cost-effective. Only if late mortality benefits can be demonstrated will it meet commonly used cost-effectiveness criteria.

Tumor downstaging as an intermediate endpoint to assess the activity of neoadjuvant systemic therapy in patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer

BACKGROUND

Achieving a pathologic complete response (pCR) with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) has been associated with improved overall survival (OS). This study was aimed at evaluating the impact of pathologic downstaging (pDS; ie, a pT stage at least 1 stage lower than the pre-NAC cT stage) on the OS of patients with MIBC treated with NAC.

METHODS

The Retrospective International Study of Cancers of the Urothelial Tract (RISC) and the National Cancer Database (NCDB) were queried for cT2-4N0M0 patients treated with NAC. A multivariable Cox model including either pDS or pCR was generated. A nested model was built to evaluate the added value of pDS (excluding patients achieving a pCR) to a model including pCR alone. C indices were computed to assess discrimination. NCDB was used for validation. The treatment effect of NAC versus cystectomy alone in achieving pDS was estimated through an inverse probability-weighted regression adjustment.

RESULTS

Overall, 189 and 2010 patients from the RISC and NCDB cohorts, respectively, were included; pDS and pCR were achieved by 33% and 35% and by 20% and 15% in RISC and NCDB, respectively. In both data sets, pDS and pCR were associated with better OS and C indices. Adding pDS excluding pCR to the model with pCR fit the data better (likelihood ratio, P = .019 for RISC and P < .001 for NCDB), and it yielded better discrimination (incremental C index, 4.2 for RISC and 1.6 for NCDB). The treatment effect of NAC in achieving pDS was 2.07-fold (P < .001) in comparison with cystectomy alone.

CONCLUSIONS

A decrease of at least 1 stage from the cT stage to the pT stage is associated with improved OS in patients with MIBC treated with NAC.

The impact of pathologic response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy on conditional survival among patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer

PURPOSE

Achieving a pathologic complete response (pCR) with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) for muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) is associated with a favorable prognosis. Patients with pathologic residual disease (pRD) generally have poor outcomes. However, prognosis after radical cystectomy (RC) improves with ongoing survivorship. Our objective was to determine whether the difference in prognosis of patients with pCR and pRD changes over time.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We queried the National Cancer Database for patients who received NAC and RC for localized MIBC (cT2-T4aN0M0) between 1998 and 2012. pCR was defined as ≤Tis disease. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to estimate conditional survival to 5 years given survival to 1, 2, 3, and 4 years post-RC. Cox proportional hazard modeling was used to estimate the effect of pRD vs. pCR on overall survival.

RESULTS

The cohort comprised 1,553 patients (pCR: 314 and pRD: 1,239). With median follow-up 2.65 years (range 0.01-9.97), median survival was 2.5 years (95% confidence interval 2.2-2.9) and not reached for pRD and pCR, respectively. All patients had improved conditional survival with each additional year of survivorship. Patients with pCR had improved overall survival relative to those with pRD. The effect of pRD vs. pCR on conditional survival did not differ over time (P = 0.7).

CONCLUSIONS

MIBC patients with pCR after NAC have improved conditional survival relative to those with pRD post-RC. This survival advantage does not significantly change over time. These findings may inform patient counseling, surveillance intensity, and novel adjuvant approaches for patients with pRD.

Abstract 156: Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of the Sentinel Cerebral Embolic Protection Device During Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement

Introduction: Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) has been established as a standard of care for patients with severe aortic stenosis deemed at prohibitive or high risk for surgery. However, stroke remains an unpredictable and devastating complication after TAVR. The Sentinel cerebral embolic protection (CEP) device has been shown to collect thrombus and debris in 99% of patients during TAVR and possibly lowers risk of clinically-overt periprocedural stroke.

Methods: We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing CEP vs no CEP using a Markov model with 3 health states (stroke-free, post-stroke, death) and simulated an average 83-year old high-risk TAVR patient cohort. Risk of stroke and mortality at 30 days with and without CEP (5.6 vs 9.0 and 1.3 vs 1.8%, respectively) were based on the SENTINEL trial. U.S. healthcare costs, utilities, and long-term survival following TAVR with or without stroke were based on the PARTNER and CoreValve US Pivotal trials. Sentinel device costs were based on the manufacturer’s cost estimate ($2,400). We performed a probabilistic sensitivity analysis accounting for parameter uncertainty and calculated lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) at a discount rate of 3%.

Results: CEP increased QALYs of 3.81 by 0.16 (95% CI -0.04 to 0.54) and costs of $232,623 by $7,517 (95% CI $103 to 28,161), yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $48,269 per QALY gained. The likelihood that CEP would be considered cost-effective at commonly used thresholds of $50-150k/QALY ranged from 45 to 86% ( Figure ). Results were influenced by procedural stroke risk and efficacy of the device.

Conclusion: Our results suggest CEP may be considered a cost-effective strategy during TAVR.

Early Mortality in Patients With Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer Undergoing Cystectomy in the United States

Background

Although radical cystectomy (RC) is a standard treatment for muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC), for many patients the risks versus benefits of RC may favor other approaches. We sought to define the landscape of early postcystectomy mortality in the United States and identify patients at high risk using pretreatment variables.

Methods

We identified patients with MIBC (cT2-T4aN0M0) who underwent RC without perioperative chemotherapy within the National Cancer Database (2003–2012). Using multistate multivariable modeling, we calculated time spent in three health states: hospitalized, discharged, and death more than 90 days postcystectomy. Cross-validation was performed by geographic region. Time spent in each state was weighted by utility to determine 90-day quality-adjusted life days (QALDs).

Results

Among 7922 patients, 90-day mortality was 7.6% (8.0% for lower and 6.7% for higher volume hospitals). Increasing age, clinical T stage, Charlson Comorbidity Index, and lower volume were associated with higher 90-day mortality and were included in the model. Cross-validation revealed appropriate performance (C-statistics of 0.53–0.74; calibration slopes of 0.50–1.67). The model predicted 25% of patients had a 90-day mortality risk higher than 10%, and observed 90-day mortality in this group was 14.0% (95% CI = 12.5% to 15.6%). Mean quality-adjusted life days (QALDs) was 63 (range = 44–68).

Conclusions

RC is associated with relatively high early mortality risk. Pretreatment variables may identify patients at particularly high risk, which may inform clinical trial design, facilitate shared decision making, and enhance quality improvement initiatives.

Lifestyle advice and interventions for cardiovascular risk reduction: A systematic review of guidelines

BACKGROUND

Lifestyle factors are important in preventing cardiovascular disease (CVD) development. We aimed to systematically review guidelines on primary prevention of CVD and their recommendations on lifestyle advice or intervention, in order to guide primary prevention programs.

METHODS

Publications in MEDLINE, CINAHL over 7 years since May 3, 2009 were identified. G-I-N International Guideline Library, National Guidelines Clearinghouse, National Library for Health Guideline finder, Canadian Medical Association InfoBase were searched. On the February 8, 2017, we updated the search from Websites of organizations responsible for guidelines development.

STUDY SELECTION

2 reviewers screened the titles and abstracts to identify Guidelines from Western countries containing recommendations for lifestyle advice and interventions in primary prevention of CVD.

DATA EXTRACTION

2 reviewers independently assessed rigor of guideline development using the AGREEII instrument, and one extracted recommendations.

RESULTS

Of the 7 guidelines identified, 6 showed good rigor of development (range 45-86%). The guidelines were consistent in recommendations for smoking cessation, limiting saturated fat and salt intake, avoiding transaturated-fat and sugar, with particular emphasis on sugar-sweetened beverages. Guidelines generally agreed on recommendations for physical activity levels and diets rich in fruit, vegetables, fish and wholegrains. Guidelines differed on recommendations for specific dietary patterns and alcohol consumption. Recommendations on psychological factors and sleep are currently limited.

CONCLUSIONS

Current guidelines agree on the importance of lifestyle in the prevention of CVD with consensus on most factors including physical activity, smoking cessation and diet, which should be actively integrated in cardiovascular risk reduction programs aiming to improve clinical outcomes.

Web-Based Tool to Facilitate Shared Decision Making With Regard to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Use in Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer

PURPOSE

Level 1 evidence supports the use of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) for the treatment of muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC), but observational data demonstrate that this approach is underused. A barrier to shared decision making is difficulty in predicting and communicating survival estimates after cystectomy with or without NAC.

METHODS

We included patients with MIBC from the National Cancer Database treated with cystectomy. A state-transition model was constructed for calculating 5-year death risk using baseline patient-, tumor-, and facility-level variables. Internal-external cross-validation by geographic region was performed. The effect of NAC was integrated using a literature-derived hazard ratio. Bladder cancer-specific and other-cause mortality was estimated from all-cause mortality rates from US life tables. From the state-transition model, a Web-based tool was developed and pilot usability testing performed.

RESULTS

A total of 9,824 patients with MIBC who underwent cystectomy were eligible for inclusion. Median overall survival was 39.6 months (95% CI, 37.4 to 42.4 months). Increasing age, higher clinical T stage, higher comorbidity index, and black race were associated with shorter survival. Private insurance, higher income, and cystectomy at a high-volume facility were associated with longer survival. The prediction model was well calibrated across geographic regions, with observed-to-predicted 5-year death risks ranging from 0.85 to 1.17. Absolute risk reductions with NAC varied from 8.6% to 10.1%. The Web-based tool allowed input of the predictor variables and a user-defined hazard ratio associated with the effect of NAC to generate individualized survival estimates. The tool demonstrated good usability with clinicians.

CONCLUSION

A Web-based tool was developed to individualize outcome prediction and communication in patients with MIBC treated with cystectomy with or without NAC to facilitate shared decision making.

Definitive Management of Primary Bladder Tumors in the Context of Metastatic Disease: Who, How, When, and Why?

The Oncology Grand Rounds series is designed to place original reports published in the Journal into clinical context. A case presentation is followed by a description of diagnostic and management challenges, a review of the relevant literature, and a summary of the authors' suggested management approaches. The goal of this series is to help readers better understand how to apply the results of key studies, including those published in Journal of Clinical Oncology, to patients seen in their own clinical practice. A 70-year-old man with urothelial cancer of the bladder (UBC) metastatic to the pelvic and retroperitoneal lymph nodes was treated with gemcitabine plus cisplatin, but after two cycles neutropenic sepsis developed, which required a prolonged intensive care unit admission. Upon recovery, repeat imaging studies revealed progressive pelvic and retroperitoneal lymphadenopathy, and the patient enrolled in a clinical trial that evaluated treatment with an anti-PD-L1 antibody. The patient achieved a complete radiographic response to immune checkpoint blockade, which continued for 18 months after initiating therapy ( Fig 1 ). However, at that time, a cystoscopy of his primary tumor and a transurethral resection revealed residual muscle-invasive UBC. The patient asked whether there is any role for definitive local therapy of his primary bladder tumor with radical cystectomy or radiation.

Impact of total knee replacement practice: cost effectiveness analysis of data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative

Objectives To evaluate the impact of total knee replacement on quality of life in people with knee osteoarthritis and to estimate associated differences in lifetime costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) according to use by level of symptoms.Design Marginal structural modeling and cost effectiveness analysis based on lifetime predictions for total knee replacement and death from population based cohort data.Setting Data from two studies-Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) and the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study (MOST)-within the US health system.Participants 4498 participants with or at high risk for knee osteoarthritis aged 45-79 from the OAI with no previous knee replacement (confirmed by baseline radiography) followed up for nine years. Validation cohort comprised 2907 patients from MOST with two year follow-up.Intervention Scenarios ranging from current practice, defined as total knee replacement practice as performed in the OAI (with procedural rates estimated by a prediction model), to practice limited to patients with severe symptoms to no surgery.Main outcome measures Generic (SF-12) and osteoarthritis specific quality of life measured over 96 months, model based QALYs, costs, and incremental cost effectiveness ratios over a lifetime horizon.Results In the OAI, total knee replacement showed improvements in quality of life with small absolute changes when averaged across levels of confounding variables: 1.70 (95% uncertainty interval 0.26 to 3.57) for SF-12 physical component summary (PCS); -10.69 (-13.39 to -8.01) for Western Ontario and McMaster Universities arthritis index (WOMAC); and 9.16 (6.35 to 12.49) for knee injury and osteoarthritis outcome score (KOOS) quality of life subscale. These improvements became larger with decreasing functional status at baseline. Provision of total knee replacement to patients with SF-12 PCS scores <35 was the optimal scenario given a cost effectiveness threshold of $200 000/QALY, with cost savings of $6974 ($5789 to $8269) and a minimal loss of 0.008 (-0.056 to 0.043) QALYs compared with current practice. These findings were reproduced among patients with knee osteoarthritis from the MOST cohort and were robust against various scenarios including increased rates of total knee replacement and mortality and inclusion of non-healthcare costs but were sensitive to increased deterioration in quality of life without surgery. In a threshold analysis, total knee replacement would become cost effective in patients with SF-12 PCS scores ≤40 if the associated hospital admission costs fell below $14 000 given a cost effectiveness threshold of $200 000/QALY.Conclusion Current practice of total knee replacement as performed in a recent US cohort of patients with knee osteoarthritis had minimal effects on quality of life and QALYs at the group level. If the procedure were restricted to more severely affected patients, its effectiveness would rise, with practice becoming economically more attractive than its current use.

Cost-effectiveness of the polypill versus risk assessment for prevention of cardiovascular disease

OBJECTIVE

There is an international trend towards recommending medication to prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals at increasingly lower cardiovascular risk. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of a population approach with a polypill including a statin (simvastatin 20 mg) and three antihypertensive agents (amlodipine 2.5 mg, losartan 25 mg and hydrochlorothiazide 12.5 mg) and periodic risk assessment with different risk thresholds.

METHODS

We developed a microsimulation model for lifetime predictions of CVD events, diabetes, and death in 259 146 asymptomatic UK Biobank participants aged 40-69 years. We assessed incremental costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for polypill scenarios with the same combination of agents and doses but differing for starting age, and periodic risk assessment with 10-year CVD risk thresholds of 10% and 20%.

RESULTS

Restrictive risk assessment, in which statins and antihypertensives were prescribed when risk exceeded 20%, was the optimal strategy gaining 123 QALYs (95% credible interval (CI) -173 to 387) per 10 000 individuals at an extra cost of £1.45 million (95% CI 0.89 to 1.94) as compared with current practice. Although less restrictive risk assessment and polypill scenarios prevented more CVD events and attained larger survival gains, these benefits were offset by the additional costs and disutility of daily medication use. Lowering the risk threshold for prescription of statins to 10% was economically unattractive, costing £40 000 per QALY gained. Starting the polypill from age 60 onwards became the most cost-effective scenario when annual drug prices were reduced below £240. All polypill scenarios would save costs at prices below £50.

CONCLUSIONS

Periodic risk assessment using lower risk thresholds is unlikely to be cost-effective. The polypill would become cost-effective if drug prices were reduced.

Cardiovascular Risk Assessment: A Systematic Review of Guidelines

BACKGROUND

Many guidelines exist for screening and risk assessment for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in apparently healthy persons.

PURPOSE

To systematically review current primary prevention guidelines on adult cardiovascular risk assessment and highlight the similarities and differences to aid clinician decision making.

DATA SOURCES

Publications in MEDLINE and CINAHL between 3 May 2009 and 30 June 2016 were identified. On 30 June 2016, the Guidelines International Network International Guideline Library, National Guideline Clearinghouse, National Library for Health Guidelines Finder, Canadian Medical Association Clinical Practice Guidelines Infobase, and Web sites of organizations responsible for guideline development were searched.

STUDY SELECTION

2 reviewers screened titles and abstracts to identify guidelines from Western countries containing recommendations for cardiovascular risk assessment for healthy adults.

DATA EXTRACTION

2 reviewers independently assessed rigor of guideline development using the Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation II instrument, and 1 extracted the recommendations.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Of the 21 guidelines, 17 showed considerable rigor of development. These recommendations address assessment of total cardiovascular risk (5 guidelines), dysglycemia (7 guidelines), dyslipidemia (2 guidelines), and hypertension (3 guidelines). All but 1 recommendation advocates for screening, and most include prediction models integrating several relatively simple risk factors for either deciding on further screening or guiding subsequent management. No consensus on the strategy for screening, recommended target population, screening tests, or treatment thresholds exists.

LIMITATION

Only guidelines developed by Western national or international medical organizations were included.

CONCLUSION

Considerable discrepancies in cardiovascular screening guidelines still exist, with no consensus on optimum screening strategies or treatment threshold.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Barts Charity.

Time-Limited Trials of Intensive Care for Critically Ill Patients With Cancer: How Long Is Long Enough?

IMPORTANCE

Time-limited trials of intensive care are commonly used in patients perceived to have a poor prognosis. The optimal duration of such trials is unknown. Factors such as a cancer diagnosis are associated with clinician pessimism and may affect the decision to limit care independent of a patient's severity of illness.

OBJECTIVE

To identify the optimal duration of intensive care for short-term mortality in critically ill patients with cancer.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Decision analysis using a state-transition microsimulation model was performed to simulate the hospital course of patients with poor-prognosis primary tumors, metastatic disease, or hematologic malignant neoplasms admitted to medical and surgical intensive care units. Transition probabilities were derived from 920 participants stratified by sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scores to identify severity of illness. The model was validated in 3 independent cohorts with 349, 158, and 117 participants from quaternary care academic hospitals. Monte Carlo microsimulation was performed, followed by probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Outcomes were assessed in the overall cohort and in solid tumors alone.

INTERVENTIONS

Time-unlimited vs time-limited trials of intensive care.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

30-day all-cause mortality and mean survival duration.

RESULTS

The SOFA scores at ICU admission were significantly associated with mortality. A 3-, 8-, or 15-day trial of intensive care resulted in decreased mean 30-day survival vs aggressive care in all but the sickest patients (SOFA score, 5-9: 48.4% [95% CI, 48.0%-48.8%], 60.6% [95% CI, 60.2%-61.1%], and 66.8% [95% CI, 66.4%-67.2%], respectively, vs 74.6% [95% CI, 74.3%-75.0%] with time-unlimited aggressive care; SOFA score, 10-14: 36.2% [95% CI, 35.8%-36.6%], 44.1% [95% CI, 43.6%-44.5%], and 46.1% [95% CI, 45.6%-46.5%], respectively, vs 48.4% [95% CI, 48.0%-48.8%] with aggressive care; SOFA score, ≥ 15: 5.8% [95% CI, 5.6%-6.0%], 8.1% [95% CI, 7.9%-8.3%], and 8.3% [95% CI, 8.1%-8.6%], respectively, vs 8.8% [95% CI, 8.5%-9.0%] with aggressive care). However, the clinical magnitude of these differences was variable. Trial durations of 8 days in the sickest patients offered mean survival duration that was no more than 1 day different from time-unlimited care, whereas trial durations of 10 to 12 days were required in healthier patients. For the subset of patients with solid tumors, trial durations of 1 to 4 days offered mean survival that was not statistically significantly different from time-unlimited care.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Trials of ICU care lasting 1 to 4 days may be sufficient in patients with poor-prognosis solid tumors, whereas patients with hematologic malignant neoplasms or less severe illness seem to benefit from longer trials of intensive care.

Diabetes and the Association of Postoperative Hyperglycemia With Clinical and Economic Outcomes in Cardiac Surgery

OBJECTIVE

The management of postoperative hyperglycemia is controversial and generally does not take into account pre-existing diabetes. We analyzed clinical and economic outcomes associated with postoperative hyperglycemia in cardiac surgery patients, stratifying by diabetes status.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Multicenter cohort study in 4,316 cardiac surgery patients operated on in 2010. Glucose was measured at 6-h intervals for 48 h postoperatively. Outcomes included cost, hospital length of stay (LOS), cardiac and respiratory complications, major infections, and death. Associations between maximum glucose levels and outcomes were assessed with multivariable regression and recycled prediction analyses.

RESULTS

In patients without diabetes, increasing glucose levels were associated with a gradual worsening of outcomes. In these patients, hyperglycemia (≥180 mg/dL) was associated with an additional cost of $3,192 (95% CI 1,972 to 4,456), an additional hospital LOS of 0.8 days (0.4 to 1.3), an increase in infections of 1.6% (0.5 to 2.8), and an increase in respiratory complications of 2.6% (0.0 to 5.3). However, among patients with insulin-treated diabetes, optimal outcomes were associated with glucose levels considered to be hyperglycemic (180 to 240 mg/dL). This level of hyperglycemia was associated with cost reductions of $6,225 (-12,886 to -222), hospital LOS reductions of 1.6 days (-3.7 to 0.4), infection reductions of 4.1% (-9.1 to 0.0), and reductions in respiratory complication of 12.5% (-22.4 to -3.0). In patients with non-insulin-treated diabetes, outcomes did not differ significantly when hyperglycemia was present.

CONCLUSIONS

Glucose levels <180 mg/dL are associated with better outcomes in most patients, but worse outcomes in patients with diabetes with a history of prior insulin use. These findings support further investigation of a stratified approach to the management of patients with stress-induced postoperative hyperglycemia based on prior diabetes status.

Evaluation of Short-Term Changes in Serum Creatinine Level as a Meaningful End Point in Randomized Clinical Trials

Observational studies have shown that acute change in kidney function (specifically, AKI) is a strong risk factor for poor outcomes. Thus, the outcome of acute change in serum creatinine level, regardless of underlying biology or etiology, is frequently used in clinical trials as both efficacy and safety end points. We performed a meta-analysis of clinical trials to quantify the relationship between positive or negative short-term effects of interventions on change in serum creatinine level and more meaningful clinical outcomes. After a thorough literature search, we included 14 randomized trials of interventions that altered risk for an acute increase in serum creatinine level and had reported between-group differences in CKD and/or mortality rate ≥3 months after randomization. Seven trials assessed interventions that, compared with placebo, increased risk of acute elevation in serum creatinine level (pooled relative risk, 1.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.22 to 1.89), and seven trials assessed interventions that, compared with placebo, reduced risk of acute elevation in serum creatinine level (pooled relative risk, 0.57; 95% confidence interval, 0.44 to 0.74). However, pooled risks for CKD and mortality associated with interventions did not differ from those with placebo in either group. In conclusion, several interventions that affect risk of acute, mild to moderate, often temporary elevation in serum creatinine level in placebo-controlled randomized trials showed no appreciable effect on CKD or mortality months later, raising questions about the value of using small to moderate changes in serum creatinine level as end points in clinical trials.

Comparing the cost-effectiveness of four novel risk markers for screening asymptomatic individuals to prevent cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the US population

BACKGROUND

High sensitivity CRP (hsCRP), coronary artery calcification on CT (CT calcium), carotid artery intima media thickness on ultrasound (cIMT) and ankle-brachial index (ABI) improve prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, but the benefit of screening with these novel risk markers in the U.S. population is unclear.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A microsimulation model evaluating lifelong cost-effectiveness for individuals aged 40-85 at intermediate risk of CVD, using 2003-2004 NHANES-III (N=3736), Framingham Heart Study, U.S. Vital Statistics, meta-analyses of independent predictive effects of the four novel risk markers and treatment effects was constructed. Using both an intention-to-treat (assumes adherence <100% and incorporates disutility from taking daily medications) and an as-treated (100% adherence and no disutility) analysis, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), lifetime costs (2014 US $), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER in $/QALY gained) of screening with hsCRP, CT coronary calcium, cIMT and ABI were established compared with current practice, full adherence to current guidelines, and ubiquitous statin therapy. In the intention-to-treat analysis in men, screening with CT calcium was cost effective ($32,900/QALY) compared with current practice. In women, screening with hsCRP was cost effective ($32,467/QALY). In the as-treated analysis, statin therapy was both more effective and less costly than all other strategies for both men and women.

CONCLUSIONS

When a substantial disutility from taking daily medication is assumed, screening men with CT coronary calcium is likely to be cost-effective whereas screening with hsCRP has value in women. The individual perceived disutility for taking daily medication should play a key role in the decision.

Sex differences in lifetime risk and first manifestation of cardiovascular disease: prospective population based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate differences in first manifestations of cardiovascular disease between men and women in a competing risks framework.

DESIGN

Prospective population based cohort study.

SETTING

People living in the community in Rotterdam, the Netherlands.

PARTICIPANTS

8419 participants (60.9% women) aged ≥ 55 and free from cardiovascular disease at baseline.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

First diagnosis of coronary heart disease (myocardial infarction, revascularisation, and coronary death), cerebrovascular disease (stroke, transient ischaemic attack, and carotid revascularisation), heart failure, or other cardiovascular death; or death from non-cardiovascular causes. Data were used to calculate lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease and its first incident manifestations adjusted for competing non-cardiovascular death.

RESULTS

During follow-up of up to 20.1 years, 2888 participants developed cardiovascular disease (826 coronary heart disease, 1198 cerebrovascular disease, 762 heart failure, and 102 other cardiovascular death). At age 55, overall lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease were 67.1% (95% confidence interval 64.7% to 69.5%) for men and 66.4% (64.2% to 68.7%) for women. Lifetime risks of first incident manifestations of cardiovascular disease in men were 27.2% (24.1% to 30.3%) for coronary heart disease, 22.8% (20.4% to 25.1%) for cerebrovascular disease, 14.9% (13.3% to 16.6%) for heart failure, and 2.3% (1.6% to 2.9%) for other deaths from cardiovascular disease. For women the figures were 16.9% (13.5% to 20.4%), 29.8% (27.7% to 31.9%), 17.5% (15.9% to 19.2%), and 2.1% (1.6% to 2.7%), respectively. Differences in the number of events that developed over the lifespan in women compared with men (per 1000) were -7 for any cardiovascular disease, -102 for coronary heart disease, 70 for cerebrovascular disease, 26 for heart failure, and -1 for other cardiovascular death; all outcomes manifested at a higher age in women. Patterns were similar when analyses were restricted to hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease outcomes, but absolute risk differences between men and women were attenuated for both coronary heart disease and stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

At age 55, though men and women have similar lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease, there are considerable differences in the first manifestation. Men are more likely to develop coronary heart disease as a first event, while women are more likely to have cerebrovascular disease or heart failure as their first event, although these manifestations appear most often at older ages.