1
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Wilcox KR, Chen A, Avolio ML, Butler EE, Collins S, Fisher R, Keenan T, Kiang NY, Knapp AK, Koerner SE, Kueppers L, Liang G, Lieungh E, Loik M, Luo Y, Poulter B, Reich P, Renwick K, Smith MD, Walker A, Weng E, Komatsu KJ. Accounting for herbaceous communities in process-based models will advance our understanding of "grassy" ecosystems. Glob Chang Biol 2023; 29:6453-6477. [PMID: 37814910 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16950] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/04/2023] [Accepted: 06/01/2023] [Indexed: 10/11/2023]
Abstract
Grassland and other herbaceous communities cover significant portions of Earth's terrestrial surface and provide many critical services, such as carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, and food production. Forecasts of global change impacts on these services will require predictive tools, such as process-based dynamic vegetation models. Yet, model representation of herbaceous communities and ecosystems lags substantially behind that of tree communities and forests. The limited representation of herbaceous communities within models arises from two important knowledge gaps: first, our empirical understanding of the principles governing herbaceous vegetation dynamics is either incomplete or does not provide mechanistic information necessary to drive herbaceous community processes with models; second, current model structure and parameterization of grass and other herbaceous plant functional types limits the ability of models to predict outcomes of competition and growth for herbaceous vegetation. In this review, we provide direction for addressing these gaps by: (1) presenting a brief history of how vegetation dynamics have been developed and incorporated into earth system models, (2) reporting on a model simulation activity to evaluate current model capability to represent herbaceous vegetation dynamics and ecosystem function, and (3) detailing several ecological properties and phenomena that should be a focus for both empiricists and modelers to improve representation of herbaceous vegetation in models. Together, empiricists and modelers can improve representation of herbaceous ecosystem processes within models. In so doing, we will greatly enhance our ability to forecast future states of the earth system, which is of high importance given the rapid rate of environmental change on our planet.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kevin R Wilcox
- University of North Carolina Greensboro, Greensboro, North Carolina, USA
- University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, USA
| | - Anping Chen
- Department of Biology and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Meghan L Avolio
- Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
| | - Ethan E Butler
- Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA
| | - Scott Collins
- Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA
| | - Rosie Fisher
- CICERO Centre for International Cimate Research, Forskningsparken, Oslo, Norway
| | - Trevor Keenan
- Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Nancy Y Kiang
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA
| | - Alan K Knapp
- Department of Biology and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Sally E Koerner
- University of North Carolina Greensboro, Greensboro, North Carolina, USA
| | - Lara Kueppers
- Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Guopeng Liang
- Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA
| | - Eva Lieungh
- Natural History Museum, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | - Michael Loik
- Department of Environmental Studies, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, USA
| | - Yiqi Luo
- School of Integrative Plant Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA
| | - Ben Poulter
- Biospheric Sciences Lab, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
| | - Peter Reich
- Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA
- Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Penrith, New South Wales, Australia
| | | | - Melinda D Smith
- Department of Biology and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Anthony Walker
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA
| | - Ensheng Weng
- NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, New York, USA
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA
| | - Kimberly J Komatsu
- University of North Carolina Greensboro, Greensboro, North Carolina, USA
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2
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Watts JD, Farina M, Kimball JS, Schiferl LD, Liu Z, Arndt KA, Zona D, Ballantyne A, Euskirchen ES, Parmentier FJW, Helbig M, Sonnentag O, Tagesson T, Rinne J, Ikawa H, Ueyama M, Kobayashi H, Sachs T, Nadeau DF, Kochendorfer J, Jackowicz-Korczynski M, Virkkala A, Aurela M, Commane R, Byrne B, Birch L, Johnson MS, Madani N, Rogers B, Du J, Endsley A, Savage K, Poulter B, Zhang Z, Bruhwiler LM, Miller CE, Goetz S, Oechel WC. Carbon uptake in Eurasian boreal forests dominates the high-latitude net ecosystem carbon budget. Glob Chang Biol 2023; 29:1870-1889. [PMID: 36647630 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16553] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/09/2022] [Revised: 11/29/2022] [Accepted: 11/30/2022] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
Arctic-boreal landscapes are experiencing profound warming, along with changes in ecosystem moisture status and disturbance from fire. This region is of global importance in terms of carbon feedbacks to climate, yet the sign (sink or source) and magnitude of the Arctic-boreal carbon budget within recent years remains highly uncertain. Here, we provide new estimates of recent (2003-2015) vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Reco ), net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE; Reco - GPP), and terrestrial methane (CH4 ) emissions for the Arctic-boreal zone using a satellite data-driven process-model for northern ecosystems (TCFM-Arctic), calibrated and evaluated using measurements from >60 tower eddy covariance (EC) sites. We used TCFM-Arctic to obtain daily 1-km2 flux estimates and annual carbon budgets for the pan-Arctic-boreal region. Across the domain, the model indicated an overall average NEE sink of -850 Tg CO2 -C year-1 . Eurasian boreal zones, especially those in Siberia, contributed to a majority of the net sink. In contrast, the tundra biome was relatively carbon neutral (ranging from small sink to source). Regional CH4 emissions from tundra and boreal wetlands (not accounting for aquatic CH4 ) were estimated at 35 Tg CH4 -C year-1 . Accounting for additional emissions from open water aquatic bodies and from fire, using available estimates from the literature, reduced the total regional NEE sink by 21% and shifted many far northern tundra landscapes, and some boreal forests, to a net carbon source. This assessment, based on in situ observations and models, improves our understanding of the high-latitude carbon status and also indicates a continued need for integrated site-to-regional assessments to monitor the vulnerability of these ecosystems to climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Mary Farina
- Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA
- Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, USA
| | - John S Kimball
- Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group (NTSG), ISB 415, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - Luke D Schiferl
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA
- John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Zhihua Liu
- Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group (NTSG), ISB 415, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - Kyle A Arndt
- Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA
- Earth Systems Research Center, University of New Hampshire, Durham, New Hampshire, USA
| | - Donatella Zona
- Global Change Research Group, Department of Biology, Physical Sciences 240, San Diego State University, San Diego, California, USA
| | - Ashley Ballantyne
- Global Climate and Ecology Laboratory, W.A. Franke College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | | | - Frans-Jan W Parmentier
- Department of Geosciences, Center for Biogeochemistry in the Anthropocene, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Manuel Helbig
- Department of Physics and Atmospheric Science, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
| | | | - Torbern Tagesson
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Janne Rinne
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
- Natural Resources Institute Finland, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Hiroki Ikawa
- Hokkaido Agricultural Research Center, NARO, Sapporo, Japan
| | | | - Hideki Kobayashi
- JAMSTEC-Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
| | - Torsten Sachs
- GFZ German Research Centre for Geoscience, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Daniel F Nadeau
- Department of Civil and Water Engineering, Université Laval, Quebec City, Quebec, Canada
| | - John Kochendorfer
- NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, Atmospheric and Turbulent Diffusion Division, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA
| | - Marcin Jackowicz-Korczynski
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
- Department of Ecoscience, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark
| | - Anna Virkkala
- Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Mika Aurela
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Roisin Commane
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA
| | - Brendan Byrne
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA
| | - Leah Birch
- Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Matthew S Johnson
- Biospheric Science Branch, NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, California, USA
| | - Nima Madani
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA
| | - Brendan Rogers
- Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Jinyang Du
- Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group (NTSG), ISB 415, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - Arthur Endsley
- Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group (NTSG), ISB 415, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana, USA
| | - Kathleen Savage
- Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Ben Poulter
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
| | - Zhen Zhang
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA
| | - Lori M Bruhwiler
- NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Global Monitoring Division, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Charles E Miller
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA
| | - Scott Goetz
- School of Informatics, Computing and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA
| | - Walter C Oechel
- Global Change Research Group, Department of Biology, Physical Sciences 240, San Diego State University, San Diego, California, USA
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3
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Cawse‐Nicholson K, Raiho AM, Thompson DR, Hulley GC, Miller CE, Miner KR, Poulter B, Schimel D, Schneider FD, Townsend PA, Zareh SK. Intrinsic Dimensionality as a Metric for the Impact of Mission Design Parameters. J Geophys Res Biogeosci 2022; 127:e2022JG006876. [PMID: 36248721 PMCID: PMC9539474 DOI: 10.1029/2022jg006876] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2022] [Revised: 07/05/2022] [Accepted: 07/06/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
High-resolution space-based spectral imaging of the Earth's surface delivers critical information for monitoring changes in the Earth system as well as resource management and utilization. Orbiting spectrometers are built according to multiple design parameters, including ground sampling distance (GSD), spectral resolution, temporal resolution, and signal-to-noise ratio. Different applications drive divergent instrument designs, so optimization for wide-reaching missions is complex. The Surface Biology and Geology component of NASA's Earth System Observatory addresses science questions and meets applications needs across diverse fields, including terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, natural disasters, and the cryosphere. The algorithms required to generate the geophysical variables from the observed spectral imagery each have their own inherent dependencies and sensitivities, and weighting these objectively is challenging. Here, we introduce intrinsic dimensionality (ID), a measure of information content, as an applications-agnostic, data-driven metric to quantify performance sensitivity to various design parameters. ID is computed through the analysis of the eigenvalues of the image covariance matrix, and can be thought of as the number of significant principal components. This metric is extremely powerful for quantifying the information content in high-dimensional data, such as spectrally resolved radiances and their changes over space and time. We find that the ID decreases for coarser GSD, decreased spectral resolution and range, less frequent acquisitions, and lower signal-to-noise levels. This decrease in information content has implications for all derived products. ID is simple to compute, providing a single quantitative standard to evaluate combinations of design parameters, irrespective of higher-level algorithms, products, applications, or disciplines.
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Affiliation(s)
- K. Cawse‐Nicholson
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - A. M. Raiho
- NASA Goddard Space Flight CenterBiospheric Sciences LabGreenbeltMDUSA
- Earth System Science Interdisciplinary CenterUniversity of MarylandCollege Park, GreenbeltMDUSA
| | - D. R. Thompson
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - G. C. Hulley
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - C. E. Miller
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - K. R. Miner
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - B. Poulter
- NASA Goddard Space Flight CenterBiospheric Sciences LabGreenbeltMDUSA
| | - D. Schimel
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - F. D. Schneider
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
| | - P. A. Townsend
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
- University of WisconsinMadisonWIUSA
| | - S. K. Zareh
- Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadenaCAUSA
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4
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Ballantyne AP, Liu Z, Anderegg WRL, Yu Z, Stoy P, Poulter B, Vanderwall J, Watts J, Kelsey K, Neff J. Reconciling carbon-cycle processes from ecosystem to global scales. Front Ecol Environ 2021; 19:57-65. [PMID: 35874182 PMCID: PMC9292898 DOI: 10.1002/fee.2296] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/01/2023]
Abstract
Understanding carbon (C) dynamics from ecosystem to global scales remains a challenge. Although expansion of global carbon dioxide (CO2) observatories makes it possible to estimate C-cycle processes from ecosystem to global scales, these estimates do not necessarily agree. At the continental US scale, only 5% of C fixed through photosynthesis remains as net ecosystem exchange (NEE), but ecosystem measurements indicate that only 2% of fixed C remains in grasslands, whereas as much as 30% remains in needleleaf forests. The wet and warm Southeast has the highest gross primary productivity and the relatively wet and cool Midwest has the highest NEE, indicating important spatial mismatches. Newly available satellite and atmospheric data can be combined in innovative ways to identify potential C loss pathways to reconcile these spatial mismatches. Independent datasets compiled from terrestrial and aquatic environments can now be combined to advance C-cycle science across the land-water interface.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ashley P Ballantyne
- Department of Ecosystem and Conservation SciencesUniversity of MontanaMissoulaMT
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’EnvironnementGif-Sur-YvetteFrance
| | - Zhihua Liu
- CAS Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and ManagementInstitute of Applied EcologyChinese Academy of SciencesShenyangChina
| | | | - Zicheng Yu
- Department of Earth and Environmental SciencesLehigh UniversityBethlehemPA
- Institute for Peat and Mire ResearchSchool of Geographical SciencesNortheast Normal UniversityChangchunChina
| | - Paul Stoy
- Department of Biological Systems EngineeringUniversity of Wisconsin–MadisonMadisonWI
| | - Ben Poulter
- National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationGoddard Space Flight CenterBiospheric Sciences LaboratoryGreenbeltMD
| | - Joseph Vanderwall
- Department of Ecosystem and Conservation SciencesUniversity of MontanaMissoulaMT
| | | | - Kathy Kelsey
- Geography and Environmental ScienceUniversity of Colorado DenverDenverCO
| | - Jason Neff
- Sustainability Innovation Laboratory and Environmental StudiesUniversity of ColoradoBoulderCO
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5
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Natali SM, Watts JD, Rogers BM, Potter S, Ludwig SM, Selbmann AK, Sullivan PF, Abbott BW, Arndt KA, Birch L, Björkman MP, Bloom AA, Celis G, Christensen TR, Christiansen CT, Commane R, Cooper EJ, Crill P, Czimczik C, Davydov S, Du J, Egan JE, Elberling B, Euskirchen ES, Friborg T, Genet H, Göckede M, Goodrich JP, Grogan P, Helbig M, Jafarov EE, Jastrow JD, Kalhori AAM, Kim Y, Kimball J, Kutzbach L, Lara MJ, Larsen KS, Lee BY, Liu Z, Loranty MM, Lund M, Lupascu M, Madani N, Malhotra A, Matamala R, McFarland J, McGuire AD, Michelsen A, Minions C, Oechel WC, Olefeldt D, Parmentier FJW, Pirk N, Poulter B, Quinton W, Rezanezhad F, Risk D, Sachs T, Schaefer K, Schmidt NM, Schuur EA, Semenchuk PR, Shaver G, Sonnentag O, Starr G, Treat CC, Waldrop MP, Wang Y, Welker J, Wille C, Xu X, Zhang Z, Zhuang Q, Zona D. Large loss of CO 2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region. Nat Clim Chang 2019; 9:852-857. [PMID: 35069807 PMCID: PMC8781060 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2019] [Accepted: 09/04/2019] [Indexed: 05/18/2023]
Abstract
Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter1-3, greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2)4. However, the amount of CO2 released in winter is highly uncertain and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or by empirically-based estimates5,6. Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO2 flux from arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1662 Tg C yr-1 from the permafrost region during the winter season (October through April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (-1032 Tg C yr-1). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions in 2100 indicates that winter CO2 emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario-Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5-and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario-RCP 8.5. Our results provide a new baseline for winter CO2 emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO2 loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Susan. M. Natali
- Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA 02540, USA
- Correspondence to:
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Patrick F. Sullivan
- Environment and Natural Resources Institute, University of Alaska, Anchorage, AK 99508. USA
| | - Benjamin W. Abbott
- Brigham Young University, Department of Plant and Wildlife Sciences, Provo, UT 84602, USA
| | - Kyle A. Arndt
- Department of Biology, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182, USA
| | - Leah Birch
- Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA 02540, USA
| | - Mats P. Björkman
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, PO Box 460, SE-405 30 Göteborg, Sweden
| | - A. Anthony Bloom
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA
| | - Gerardo Celis
- Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86001, USA
| | - Torben R. Christensen
- Department of Bioscience, Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark
| | | | - Roisin Commane
- Dept. of Earth & Environmental Sciences of Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
| | - Elisabeth J. Cooper
- Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, Faculty of Biosciences, Fisheries and Economics, UiT. The Arctic University of Norway, N9037 Tromsø, Norway
| | - Patrick Crill
- Dept. of Geological Sciences and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Sweden
| | - Claudia Czimczik
- Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA
| | - Sergey Davydov
- Northeast Science Station, Pacific Geographical Institute, Cherskii, Russia
| | - Jinyang Du
- Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group, W.A. Franke College of Forestry & Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812, USA
| | - Jocelyn E. Egan
- Department of Earth Sciences, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada
| | - Bo Elberling
- Center for Permafrost (CENPERM), Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Øster Voldgade 10, DK-1350 Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Eugenie S. Euskirchen
- University of Alaska Fairbanks, Institute of Arctic Biology, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
| | - Thomas Friborg
- Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Hélène Genet
- University of Alaska Fairbanks, Institute of Arctic Biology, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
| | | | - Jordan P. Goodrich
- Department of Biology, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182, USA
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA
| | - Paul Grogan
- Department of Biology, Queen’s University, Kingston, ON, Canada
| | - Manuel Helbig
- McMaster University, School of Geography and Earth Sciences, Hamilton, ON, L8S 4K1
- Université de Montréal, Département de géographie & Centre d’études nordiques, 520 chemin de la Côte Sainte Catherine, Montréal, QC H2V 2B8
| | - Elchin E. Jafarov
- Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545, USA
| | - Julie D. Jastrow
- Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL 60439, USA
| | - Aram A. M. Kalhori
- Department of Biology, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182, USA
| | - Yongwon Kim
- International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
| | - John Kimball
- Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group, W.A. Franke College of Forestry & Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812, USA
| | - Lars Kutzbach
- Institute of Soil Science, Universät Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Mark J. Lara
- Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801, USA
| | - Klaus S. Larsen
- Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Bang-Yong Lee
- Korea Polar Research Institute (KOPRI), Incheon 21990, Republic of Korea)
| | - Zhihua Liu
- CAS Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Management, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang, 110016, China
| | | | - Magnus Lund
- Department of Bioscience, Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark
| | - Massimo Lupascu
- Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore 117570
| | - Nima Madani
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA
| | - Avni Malhotra
- Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305
| | - Roser Matamala
- Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL 60439, USA
| | - Jack McFarland
- Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA
| | - A. David McGuire
- University of Alaska Fairbanks, Institute of Arctic Biology, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
| | | | | | - Walter C. Oechel
- Department of Biology, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182, USA
- University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
| | - David Olefeldt
- University of Alberta, Department of Renewable Resources, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
| | - Frans-Jan W. Parmentier
- Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Norbert Pirk
- Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
- Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden
| | - Ben Poulter
- NASA GSFC, Biospheric Sciences Lab., Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
| | | | - Fereidoun Rezanezhad
- Ecohydrology Research Group, Water Institute and Department of Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue West, Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1, Canada
| | - David Risk
- St. Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, Nova Scotia, Canada
| | - Torsten Sachs
- GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Kevin Schaefer
- National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
| | - Niels M. Schmidt
- Arctic Research Centre, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark
| | - Edward A.G. Schuur
- Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86001, USA
| | - Philipp R. Semenchuk
- Division of Conservation Biology, Vegetation Ecology and Landscape Ecology, Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research, Rennweg 14, 1030 Vienna, Austria
| | - Gaius Shaver
- The Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA
| | - Oliver Sonnentag
- Université de Montréal, Département de géographie & Centre d’études nordiques, 520 chemin de la Côte Sainte Catherine, Montréal, QC H2V 2B8
| | - Gregory Starr
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL 35487, USA
| | - Claire C. Treat
- Department of Environmental and Biological Science, University of Eastern Finland, Finland
| | - Mark P. Waldrop
- Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA 94025, USA
| | - Yihui Wang
- Department of Biology, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182, USA
| | - Jeffrey Welker
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alaska Anchorage, Anchorage, AK 99508, USA
- Ecology and Genetics Research Unit, University of Oulu, Finland and UArctic
| | - Christian Wille
- GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Xiaofeng Xu
- Department of Biology, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182, USA
| | - Zhen Zhang
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
| | - Qianlai Zhuang
- Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA
| | - Donatella Zona
- Department of Biology, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA 92182, USA
- University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
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6
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Lewis SL, Mitchard ETA, Prentice C, Maslin M, Poulter B. Comment on "The global tree restoration potential". Science 2019; 366:366/6463/eaaz0388. [PMID: 31624179 DOI: 10.1126/science.aaz0388] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/07/2019] [Accepted: 09/27/2019] [Indexed: 01/10/2023]
Abstract
Bastin et al (Reports, 5 July 2019, p. 76) state that the restoration potential of new forests globally is 205 gigatonnes of carbon, conclude that "global tree restoration is our most effective climate change solution to date," and state that climate change will drive the loss of 450 million hectares of existing tropical forest by 2050. Here we show that these three statements are incorrect.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simon L Lewis
- Department of Geography, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK. .,School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
| | | | - Colin Prentice
- Department of Life Science, Imperial College, Ascot, Berks SL5 7PY, UK
| | - Mark Maslin
- Department of Geography, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK
| | - Ben Poulter
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
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7
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Ciais P, Tan J, Wang X, Roedenbeck C, Chevallier F, Piao SL, Moriarty R, Broquet G, Le Quéré C, Canadell JG, Peng S, Poulter B, Liu Z, Tans P. Five decades of northern land carbon uptake revealed by the interhemispheric CO2 gradient. Nature 2019; 568:221-225. [DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1078-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 82] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/26/2016] [Accepted: 01/25/2019] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
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8
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Barba J, Bradford MA, Brewer PE, Bruhn D, Covey K, van Haren J, Megonigal JP, Mikkelsen TN, Pangala SR, Pihlatie M, Poulter B, Rivas-Ubach A, Schadt CW, Terazawa K, Warner DL, Zhang Z, Vargas R. Methane emissions from tree stems: a new frontier in the global carbon cycle. New Phytol 2019; 222:18-28. [PMID: 30394559 DOI: 10.1111/nph.15582] [Citation(s) in RCA: 46] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/05/2018] [Accepted: 10/21/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Tree stems from wetland, floodplain and upland forests can produce and emit methane (CH4 ). Tree CH4 stem emissions have high spatial and temporal variability, but there is no consensus on the biophysical mechanisms that drive stem CH4 production and emissions. Here, we summarize up to 30 opportunities and challenges for stem CH4 emissions research, which, when addressed, will improve estimates of the magnitudes, patterns and drivers of CH4 emissions and trace their potential origin. We identified the need: (1) for both long-term, high-frequency measurements of stem CH4 emissions to understand the fine-scale processes, alongside rapid large-scale measurements designed to understand the variability across individuals, species and ecosystems; (2) to identify microorganisms and biogeochemical pathways associated with CH4 production; and (3) to develop a mechanistic model including passive and active transport of CH4 from the soil-tree-atmosphere continuum. Addressing these challenges will help to constrain the magnitudes and patterns of CH4 emissions, and allow for the integration of pathways and mechanisms of CH4 production and emissions into process-based models. These advances will facilitate the upscaling of stem CH4 emissions to the ecosystem level and quantify the role of stem CH4 emissions for the local to global CH4 budget.
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Affiliation(s)
- Josep Barba
- Plant and Soil Sciences Department, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, 19711, USA
| | - Mark A Bradford
- School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, 06511, USA
| | - Paul E Brewer
- Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Edgewater, MD, 21037, USA
| | - Dan Bruhn
- Department of Chemistry and Bioscience, Aalborg University, 9220, Aalborg, Denmark
| | - Kristofer Covey
- School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT, 06511, USA
- Environmental Studies and Sciences Program, Skidmore College, NY, 12866, USA
- Skidmore College, Dana Science Center, Saratoga Springs, NY, 12866, USA
| | - Joost van Haren
- Biosphere 2 and Honors College, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA
| | | | - Teis Nørgaard Mikkelsen
- Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, 2800, Lyngby, Denmark
| | - Sunitha R Pangala
- Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4YQ, UK
| | - Mari Pihlatie
- Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Helsinki, PO Box 56, 00014, Helsinki, Finland
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)/Forest Sciences, University of Helsinki, 00560, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Ben Poulter
- Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, MD, 20771, USA
| | - Albert Rivas-Ubach
- Environmental Molecular Sciences Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, 99354, USA
| | - Christopher W Schadt
- Biosciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 37830, USA
- Department of Microbiology, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, 37996, USA
| | - Kazuhiko Terazawa
- Department of Northern Biosphere Agriculture, Tokyo University of Agriculture, 099-2493, Abashiri, Japan
| | - Daniel L Warner
- Plant and Soil Sciences Department, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, 19711, USA
| | - Zhen Zhang
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20740, USA
| | - Rodrigo Vargas
- Plant and Soil Sciences Department, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, 19711, USA
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9
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Harper AB, Powell T, Cox PM, House J, Huntingford C, Lenton TM, Sitch S, Burke E, Chadburn SE, Collins WJ, Comyn-Platt E, Daioglou V, Doelman JC, Hayman G, Robertson E, van Vuuren D, Wiltshire A, Webber CP, Bastos A, Boysen L, Ciais P, Devaraju N, Jain AK, Krause A, Poulter B, Shu S. Land-use emissions play a critical role in land-based mitigation for Paris climate targets. Nat Commun 2018; 9:2938. [PMID: 30087330 PMCID: PMC6081380 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05340-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 50] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/04/2017] [Accepted: 06/25/2018] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Scenarios that limit global warming to below 2 °C by 2100 assume significant land-use change to support large-scale carbon dioxide (CO2) removal from the atmosphere by afforestation/reforestation, avoided deforestation, and Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). The more ambitious mitigation scenarios require even greater land area for mitigation and/or earlier adoption of CO2 removal strategies. Here we show that additional land-use change to meet a 1.5 °C climate change target could result in net losses of carbon from the land. The effectiveness of BECCS strongly depends on several assumptions related to the choice of biomass, the fate of initial above ground biomass, and the fossil-fuel emissions offset in the energy system. Depending on these factors, carbon removed from the atmosphere through BECCS could easily be offset by losses due to land-use change. If BECCS involves replacing high-carbon content ecosystems with crops, then forest-based mitigation could be more efficient for atmospheric CO2 removal than BECCS. Land-based mitigation for meeting the Paris climate target must consider the carbon cycle impacts of land-use change. Here the authors show that when bioenergy crops replace high carbon content ecosystems, forest-based mitigation could be more effective for CO2 removal than bioenergy crops with carbon capture and storage.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna B Harper
- College of Engineering, Mathematics, and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK.
| | - Tom Powell
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK
| | - Peter M Cox
- College of Engineering, Mathematics, and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK
| | - Joanna House
- School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1SS, UK
| | | | - Timothy M Lenton
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK
| | - Stephen Sitch
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK
| | - Eleanor Burke
- Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
| | - Sarah E Chadburn
- College of Engineering, Mathematics, and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK.,University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
| | - William J Collins
- Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK
| | | | - Vassilis Daioglou
- Department of Climate, Air and Energy, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), PO Box 30314, 2500 GH, The Hague, Netherlands.,Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Jonathan C Doelman
- Department of Climate, Air and Energy, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), PO Box 30314, 2500 GH, The Hague, Netherlands
| | - Garry Hayman
- Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, UK
| | - Eddy Robertson
- Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
| | - Detlef van Vuuren
- Department of Climate, Air and Energy, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), PO Box 30314, 2500 GH, The Hague, Netherlands.,Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Andy Wiltshire
- Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
| | | | - Ana Bastos
- Department of Geography, Ludwig Maximilians University Munich, Luisenstr. 37, 80333, Munich, Germany.,Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Lena Boysen
- The Land in the Earth System, Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Narayanappa Devaraju
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Atul K Jain
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA
| | - Andreas Krause
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research-Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, 82467, Germany
| | - Ben Poulter
- NASA GSFC, Biospheric Sciences Lab., Greenbelt, MD, 20771, USA
| | - Shijie Shu
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA
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10
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Huntzinger DN, Michalak AM, Schwalm C, Ciais P, King AW, Fang Y, Schaefer K, Wei Y, Cook RB, Fisher JB, Hayes D, Huang M, Ito A, Jain AK, Lei H, Lu C, Maignan F, Mao J, Parazoo N, Peng S, Poulter B, Ricciuto D, Shi X, Tian H, Wang W, Zeng N, Zhao F. Uncertainty in the response of terrestrial carbon sink to environmental drivers undermines carbon-climate feedback predictions. Sci Rep 2017; 7:4765. [PMID: 28684755 PMCID: PMC5500546 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-03818-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 118] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/11/2016] [Accepted: 05/05/2017] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Terrestrial ecosystems play a vital role in regulating the accumulation of carbon (C) in the atmosphere. Understanding the factors controlling land C uptake is critical for reducing uncertainties in projections of future climate. The relative importance of changing climate, rising atmospheric CO2, and other factors, however, remains unclear despite decades of research. Here, we use an ensemble of land models to show that models disagree on the primary driver of cumulative C uptake for 85% of vegetated land area. Disagreement is largest in model sensitivity to rising atmospheric CO2 which shows almost twice the variability in cumulative land uptake since 1901 (1 s.d. of 212.8 PgC vs. 138.5 PgC, respectively). We find that variability in CO2 and temperature sensitivity is attributable, in part, to their compensatory effects on C uptake, whereby comparable estimates of C uptake can arise by invoking different sensitivities to key environmental conditions. Conversely, divergent estimates of C uptake can occur despite being based on the same environmental sensitivities. Together, these findings imply an important limitation to the predictability of C cycling and climate under unprecedented environmental conditions. We suggest that the carbon modeling community prioritize a probabilistic multi-model approach to generate more robust C cycle projections.
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Affiliation(s)
- D N Huntzinger
- School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, P.O. Box 5694, Flagstaff, Arizona, 86011-5694, USA.
| | - A M Michalak
- Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, California, USA
| | - C Schwalm
- School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, P.O. Box 5694, Flagstaff, Arizona, 86011-5694, USA
- Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA, 02540, USA
| | - P Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL-LSCE CEA CNRS UVSQ, 91191, Gif sur, Yvette, France
| | - A W King
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831, USA
| | - Y Fang
- Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, California, USA
| | - K Schaefer
- National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA
| | - Y Wei
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831, USA
| | - R B Cook
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831, USA
| | - J B Fisher
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
| | - D Hayes
- School of Forest Resources, University of Maine, Orno, ME, USA
| | - M Huang
- Atmospheric and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA
| | - A Ito
- National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - A K Jain
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA
| | - H Lei
- Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington, USA
- State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - C Lu
- Department of Ecology, Evolution and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, USA
| | - F Maignan
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL-LSCE CEA CNRS UVSQ, 91191, Gif sur, Yvette, France
| | - J Mao
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831, USA
| | - N Parazoo
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
| | - S Peng
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL-LSCE CEA CNRS UVSQ, 91191, Gif sur, Yvette, France
| | - B Poulter
- Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, USA
| | - D Ricciuto
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831, USA
| | - X Shi
- Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831, USA
| | - H Tian
- International Center for Climate and Global Change Research and School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama, USA
| | - W Wang
- Ames Research Center, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Moffett Field, California, USA
| | - N Zeng
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA
| | - F Zhao
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA
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11
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Jung M, Reichstein M, Schwalm CR, Huntingford C, Sitch S, Ahlström A, Arneth A, Camps-Valls G, Ciais P, Friedlingstein P, Gans F, Ichii K, Jain AK, Kato E, Papale D, Poulter B, Raduly B, Rödenbeck C, Tramontana G, Viovy N, Wang YP, Weber U, Zaehle S, Zeng N. Compensatory water effects link yearly global land CO 2 sink changes to temperature. Nature 2017; 541:516-520. [PMID: 28092919 DOI: 10.1038/nature20780] [Citation(s) in RCA: 140] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2015] [Accepted: 11/07/2016] [Indexed: 11/09/2022]
Abstract
Large interannual variations in the measured growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) originate primarily from fluctuations in carbon uptake by land ecosystems. It remains uncertain, however, to what extent temperature and water availability control the carbon balance of land ecosystems across spatial and temporal scales. Here we use empirical models based on eddy covariance data and process-based models to investigate the effect of changes in temperature and water availability on gross primary productivity (GPP), terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) at local and global scales. We find that water availability is the dominant driver of the local interannual variability in GPP and TER. To a lesser extent this is true also for NEE at the local scale, but when integrated globally, temporal NEE variability is mostly driven by temperature fluctuations. We suggest that this apparent paradox can be explained by two compensatory water effects. Temporal water-driven GPP and TER variations compensate locally, dampening water-driven NEE variability. Spatial water availability anomalies also compensate, leaving a dominant temperature signal in the year-to-year fluctuations of the land carbon sink. These findings help to reconcile seemingly contradictory reports regarding the importance of temperature and water in controlling the interannual variability of the terrestrial carbon balance. Our study indicates that spatial climate covariation drives the global carbon cycle response.
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Affiliation(s)
- Martin Jung
- Department of Biogeochemical Integration, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, 07745 Jena, Germany
| | - Markus Reichstein
- Department of Biogeochemical Integration, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, 07745 Jena, Germany.,Michael-Stifel-Center Jena for Data-driven and Simulation Science, Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena, 07743 Jena, Germany
| | | | - Chris Huntingford
- Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK
| | - Stephen Sitch
- College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK
| | - Anders Ahlström
- Department of Earth System Science, School of Earth, Energy and Environmental Sciences, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305, USA.,Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, 223 62 Lund, Sweden
| | - Almut Arneth
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
| | - Gustau Camps-Valls
- Image Processing Laboratory, Universitat de València, Catedrático José Beltrán, Paterna 46980, València, Spain
| | - Philippe Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Pierre Friedlingstein
- College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QE, UK
| | - Fabian Gans
- Department of Biogeochemical Integration, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, 07745 Jena, Germany
| | - Kazuhito Ichii
- Department of Environment Geochemical Cycle Research, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25, Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama 236-0001, Japan.,Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan
| | - Atul K Jain
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, Illinois 61801, USA
| | - Etsushi Kato
- Global Environment Program, The Institute of Applied Energy, Tokyo 105-0003, Japan
| | - Dario Papale
- Department for Innovation in Biological, Agro-food and Forest systems, University of Tuscia, 01100 Viterbo, Italy
| | - Ben Poulter
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Science Laboratory, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771, USA
| | - Botond Raduly
- Department for Innovation in Biological, Agro-food and Forest systems, University of Tuscia, 01100 Viterbo, Italy.,Department of Bioengineering, Sapientia Hungarian University of Transylvania, 530104 M-Ciuc, Romania
| | - Christian Rödenbeck
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Department of Biogeochemical Systems, 07745 Jena, Germany
| | - Gianluca Tramontana
- Department for Innovation in Biological, Agro-food and Forest systems, University of Tuscia, 01100 Viterbo, Italy
| | - Nicolas Viovy
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Ying-Ping Wang
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, PMB #1, Aspendale, Victoria 3195, Australia
| | - Ulrich Weber
- Department of Biogeochemical Integration, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, 07745 Jena, Germany
| | - Sönke Zaehle
- Department of Biogeochemical Integration, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, 07745 Jena, Germany.,Michael-Stifel-Center Jena for Data-driven and Simulation Science, Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena, 07743 Jena, Germany
| | - Ning Zeng
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100029, China.,Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742, USA
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12
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Huang M, Piao S, Zeng Z, Peng S, Ciais P, Cheng L, Mao J, Poulter B, Shi X, Yao Y, Yang H, Wang Y. Seasonal responses of terrestrial ecosystem water-use efficiency to climate change. Glob Chang Biol 2016; 22:2165-77. [PMID: 26663766 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13180] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/01/2015] [Revised: 10/23/2015] [Accepted: 11/16/2015] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
Ecosystem water-use efficiency (EWUE) is an indicator of carbon-water interactions and is defined as the ratio of carbon assimilation (GPP) to evapotranspiration (ET). Previous research suggests an increasing long-term trend in annual EWUE over many regions and is largely attributed to the physiological effects of rising CO2 . The seasonal trends in EWUE, however, have not yet been analyzed. In this study, we investigate seasonal EWUE trends and responses to various drivers during 1982-2008. The seasonal cycle for two variants of EWUE, water-use efficiency (WUE, GPP/ET), and transpiration-based WUE (WUEt , the ratio of GPP and transpiration), is analyzed from 0.5° gridded fields from four process-based models and satellite-based products, as well as a network of 63 local flux tower observations. WUE derived from flux tower observations shows moderate seasonal variation for most latitude bands, which is in agreement with satellite-based products. In contrast, the seasonal EWUE trends are not well captured by the same satellite-based products. Trend analysis, based on process-model factorial simulations separating effects of climate, CO2 , and nitrogen deposition (NDEP), further suggests that the seasonal EWUE trends are mainly associated with seasonal trends of climate, whereas CO2 and NDEP do not show obvious seasonal difference in EWUE trends. About 66% grid cells show positive annual WUE trends, mainly over mid- and high northern latitudes. In these regions, spring climate change has amplified the effect of CO2 in increasing WUE by more than 0.005 gC m(-2) mm(-1) yr(-1) for 41% pixels. Multiple regression analysis further shows that the increase in springtime WUE in the northern hemisphere is the result of GPP increasing faster than ET because of the higher temperature sensitivity of GPP relative to ET. The partitioning of annual EWUE to seasonal components provides new insight into the relative sensitivities of GPP and ET to climate, CO2, and NDEP.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mengtian Huang
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China
| | - Shilong Piao
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China
- Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085, China
| | - Zhenzhong Zeng
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China
| | - Shushi Peng
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China
- LSCE, UMR CEA-CNRS, Bat. 709, CE, L'Orme des Merisiers, F-91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Philippe Ciais
- LSCE, UMR CEA-CNRS, Bat. 709, CE, L'Orme des Merisiers, F-91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - Lei Cheng
- CSIRO Land and Water Flagship, GPO Box 1666, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia
| | - Jiafu Mao
- Climate Change Science Institute and Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1 Bethel Valley Road, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831, USA
| | - Ben Poulter
- Institute on Ecosystems and the Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, 59717, USA
| | - Xiaoying Shi
- Climate Change Science Institute and Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1 Bethel Valley Road, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831, USA
| | - Yitong Yao
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China
| | - Hui Yang
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China
| | - Yingping Wang
- CSIRO Ocean and Atmosphere Flagship, PMB 1, Aspendale, Vic., 3195, Australia
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13
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Thompson RL, Patra PK, Chevallier F, Maksyutov S, Law RM, Ziehn T, van der Laan-Luijkx IT, Peters W, Ganshin A, Zhuravlev R, Maki T, Nakamura T, Shirai T, Ishizawa M, Saeki T, Machida T, Poulter B, Canadell JG, Ciais P. Top-down assessment of the Asian carbon budget since the mid 1990s. Nat Commun 2016; 7:10724. [PMID: 26911442 PMCID: PMC4773423 DOI: 10.1038/ncomms10724] [Citation(s) in RCA: 72] [Impact Index Per Article: 9.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/10/2015] [Accepted: 01/14/2016] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is the principal driver of anthropogenic climate change. Asia is an important region for the global carbon budget, with 4 of the world's 10 largest national emitters of CO2. Using an ensemble of seven atmospheric inverse systems, we estimated land biosphere fluxes (natural, land-use change and fires) based on atmospheric observations of CO2 concentration. The Asian land biosphere was a net sink of −0.46 (−0.70–0.24) PgC per year (median and range) for 1996–2012 and was mostly located in East Asia, while in South and Southeast Asia the land biosphere was close to carbon neutral. In East Asia, the annual CO2 sink increased between 1996–2001 and 2008–2012 by 0.56 (0.30–0.81) PgC, accounting for ∼35% of the increase in the global land biosphere sink. Uncertainty in the fossil fuel emissions contributes significantly (32%) to the uncertainty in land biosphere sink change. Land biosphere uptake of carbon is important in mitigating the anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO2 and its climate forcing. Here, the authors show that land biosphere uptake of carbon in Asia has increased substantially since the mid 1990s, likely owing to reforestation and regional climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- R L Thompson
- Norsk Institutt for Luftforskning (NILU), Kjeller, Norway
| | - P K Patra
- Department of Environmental Geochemical Cycle Research, Japan Agency for Marine Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama 236-0001, Japan
| | - F Chevallier
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et l'Environnement (LSCE, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Gif-sur-Yvette, France
| | - S Maksyutov
- National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba 305-8506, Japan
| | - R M Law
- Oceans and Atmosphere, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), 3195 Aspendale, Australia
| | - T Ziehn
- Oceans and Atmosphere, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), 3195 Aspendale, Australia
| | - I T van der Laan-Luijkx
- Department of Meteorology and Air Quality, Environmental Sciences Group, Wageningen University (WU), 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - W Peters
- Department of Meteorology and Air Quality, Environmental Sciences Group, Wageningen University (WU), 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands.,University of Groningen, Centre for Isotope Research, 9747 AG Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - A Ganshin
- Department of Upper Atmospheric Layers Physics, Central Aerological Observatory (CAO), Moscow 141700, Russia.,National Research Tomsk State University (TSU), 634050 Tomsk, Russia
| | - R Zhuravlev
- Department of Upper Atmospheric Layers Physics, Central Aerological Observatory (CAO), Moscow 141700, Russia.,National Research Tomsk State University (TSU), 634050 Tomsk, Russia.,Department of Atmospheric Physics and Microwave Diagnostics, Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Nizhny Novgorod 603950, Russia
| | - T Maki
- Atmospheric Environment and Applied Meteorology Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute (MRI), Tsukuba 305-0052, Japan
| | - T Nakamura
- Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Global Environment and Marine Department, Tokyo 100-8122, Japan
| | - T Shirai
- National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba 305-8506, Japan
| | - M Ishizawa
- National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba 305-8506, Japan
| | - T Saeki
- Department of Environmental Geochemical Cycle Research, Japan Agency for Marine Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama 236-0001, Japan
| | - T Machida
- National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba 305-8506, Japan
| | - B Poulter
- Institute on Ecosystems and Department of Ecology, Montana State University (MSU), 59717 Bozeman, Montana, USA
| | - J G Canadell
- Global Carbon Project, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), 2601 Canberra, Australia
| | - P Ciais
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et l'Environnement (LSCE, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Gif-sur-Yvette, France
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14
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Frank D, Reichstein M, Bahn M, Thonicke K, Frank D, Mahecha MD, Smith P, van der Velde M, Vicca S, Babst F, Beer C, Buchmann N, Canadell JG, Ciais P, Cramer W, Ibrom A, Miglietta F, Poulter B, Rammig A, Seneviratne SI, Walz A, Wattenbach M, Zavala MA, Zscheischler J. Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts. Glob Chang Biol 2015; 21:2861-80. [PMID: 25752680 PMCID: PMC4676934 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12916] [Citation(s) in RCA: 219] [Impact Index Per Article: 24.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/06/2013] [Accepted: 01/24/2015] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon-climate feedbacks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dorothea Frank
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry07745, Jena, Germany
- Correspondence: Dorothea Frank, tel. + 49 3641 576284, fax + 49 3641 577200, e-mail:
| | | | - Michael Bahn
- Institute of Ecology, University of Innsbruck6020, Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Kirsten Thonicke
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) e.V.14773, Potsdam, Germany
- Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB)14195, Berlin, Germany
| | - David Frank
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of BernCH-3012, Bern, Switzerland
| | | | - Pete Smith
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen23 St Machar Drive, Aberdeen, AB24 3UU, UK
| | - Marijn van der Velde
- Ecosystems Services and Management Program, International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Sara Vicca
- Research Group of Plant and Vegetation Ecology, Biology Department, University of AntwerpWilrijk, Belgium
| | - Flurin Babst
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) e.V.14773, Potsdam, Germany
- Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, The University of Arizona1215 E Lowell St, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA
| | - Christian Beer
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry07745, Jena, Germany
- Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry (ACES), Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University10691, Stockholm, Sweden
| | | | - Josep G Canadell
- Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere FlagshipGPO Box 3023, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia
| | - Philippe Ciais
- IPSL – Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement CEA-CNRS-UVSQ91191, Gif sur Yvette, France
| | - Wolfgang Cramer
- Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d’Ecologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, Avignon UniversitéAix-en-Provence, France
| | - Andreas Ibrom
- Department of Chemical and Biochemical Engineering, Technical University of Denmark (DTU)Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000, Roskilde, Denmark
| | - Franco Miglietta
- IBIMET-CNRVia Caproni, 8, 50145, Firenze, Italy
- FoxLab, Fondazione E.MachVia Mach 1, 30158, San Michele a/Adige, Trento, Italy
| | - Ben Poulter
- IPSL – Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement CEA-CNRS-UVSQ91191, Gif sur Yvette, France
| | - Anja Rammig
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of BernCH-3012, Bern, Switzerland
- Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen23 St Machar Drive, Aberdeen, AB24 3UU, UK
| | | | - Ariane Walz
- Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam14476, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Martin Wattenbach
- Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre For Geosciences14473, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Miguel A Zavala
- Forest Ecology and Restoration Group, Universidad de AlcaláAlcalá de Henares, Madrid, Spain
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15
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Huang M, Piao S, Sun Y, Ciais P, Cheng L, Mao J, Poulter B, Shi X, Zeng Z, Wang Y. Change in terrestrial ecosystem water-use efficiency over the last three decades. Glob Chang Biol 2015; 21:2366-2378. [PMID: 25612078 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12873] [Citation(s) in RCA: 34] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/08/2014] [Revised: 12/26/2014] [Accepted: 01/02/2015] [Indexed: 06/04/2023]
Abstract
Defined as the ratio between gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET), ecosystem-scale water-use efficiency (EWUE) is an indicator of the adjustment of vegetation photosynthesis to water loss. The processes controlling EWUE are complex and reflect both a slow evolution of plants and plant communities as well as fast adjustments of ecosystem functioning to changes of limiting resources. In this study, we investigated EWUE trends from 1982 to 2008 using data-driven models derived from satellite observations and process-oriented carbon cycle models. Our findings suggest positive EWUE trends of 0.0056, 0.0007 and 0.0001 g C m(-2) mm(-1) yr(-1) under the single effect of rising CO2 ('CO2 '), climate change ('CLIM') and nitrogen deposition ('NDEP'), respectively. Global patterns of EWUE trends under different scenarios suggest that (i) EWUE-CO2 shows global increases, (ii) EWUE-CLIM increases in mainly high latitudes and decreases at middle and low latitudes, (iii) EWUE-NDEP displays slight increasing trends except in west Siberia, eastern Europe, parts of North America and central Amazonia. The data-driven MTE model, however, shows a slight decline of EWUE during the same period (-0.0005 g C m(-2) mm(-1) yr(-1) ), which differs from process-model (0.0064 g C m(-2) mm(-1) yr(-1) ) simulations with all drivers taken into account. We attribute this discrepancy to the fact that the nonmodeled physiological effects of elevated CO2 reducing stomatal conductance and transpiration (TR) in the MTE model. Partial correlation analysis between EWUE and climate drivers shows similar responses to climatic variables with the data-driven model and the process-oriented models across different ecosystems. Change in water-use efficiency defined from transpiration-based WUEt (GPP/TR) and inherent water-use efficiency (IWUEt , GPP×VPD/TR) in response to rising CO2 , climate change, and nitrogen deposition are also discussed. Our analyses will facilitate mechanistic understanding of the carbon-water interactions over terrestrial ecosystems under global change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mengtian Huang
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China
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16
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Ahlstrom A, Raupach MR, Schurgers G, Smith B, Arneth A, Jung M, Reichstein M, Canadell JG, Friedlingstein P, Jain AK, Kato E, Poulter B, Sitch S, Stocker BD, Viovy N, Wang YP, Wiltshire A, Zaehle S, Zeng N. The dominant role of semi-arid ecosystems in the trend and variability of the land CO2 sink. Science 2015; 348:895-9. [DOI: 10.1126/science.aaa1668] [Citation(s) in RCA: 765] [Impact Index Per Article: 85.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2014] [Accepted: 04/24/2015] [Indexed: 11/02/2022]
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17
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Piao S, Yin G, Tan J, Cheng L, Huang M, Li Y, Liu R, Mao J, Myneni RB, Peng S, Poulter B, Shi X, Xiao Z, Zeng N, Zeng Z, Wang Y. Detection and attribution of vegetation greening trend in China over the last 30 years. Glob Chang Biol 2015; 21:1601-9. [PMID: 25369401 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12795] [Citation(s) in RCA: 213] [Impact Index Per Article: 23.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2014] [Accepted: 10/16/2014] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
The reliable detection and attribution of changes in vegetation growth is a prerequisite for the development of strategies for the sustainable management of ecosystems. This is an extraordinary challenge. To our knowledge, this study is the first to comprehensively detect and attribute a greening trend in China over the last three decades. We use three different satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) datasets for detection as well as five different process-based ecosystem models for attribution. Rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition are identified as the most likely causes of the greening trend in China, explaining 85% and 41% of the average growing-season LAI trend (LAIGS) estimated by satellite datasets (average trend of 0.0070 yr(-1), ranging from 0.0035 yr(-1) to 0.0127 yr(-1)), respectively. The contribution of nitrogen deposition is more clearly seen in southern China than in the north of the country. Models disagree about the contribution of climate change alone to the trend in LAIGS at the country scale (one model shows a significant increasing trend, whereas two others show significant decreasing trends). However, the models generally agree on the negative impacts of climate change in north China and Inner Mongolia and the positive impact in the Qinghai-Xizang plateau. Provincial forest area change tends to be significantly correlated with the trend of LAIGS (P < 0.05), and marginally significantly (P = 0.07) correlated with the residual of LAIGS trend, calculated as the trend observed by satellite minus that estimated by models through considering the effects of climate change, rising CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition, across different provinces. This result highlights the important role of China's afforestation program in explaining the spatial patterns of trend in vegetation growth.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shilong Piao
- Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China; Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Center for Excellence in Tibetan Earth Scicence, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085, China
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18
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Evangeliou N, Balkanski Y, Cozic A, Hao WM, Mouillot F, Thonicke K, Paugam R, Zibtsev S, Mousseau TA, Wang R, Poulter B, Petkov A, Yue C, Cadule P, Koffi B, Kaiser JW, Møller AP. Fire evolution in the radioactive forests of Ukraine and Belarus: future risks for the population and the environment. ECOL MONOGR 2015. [DOI: 10.1890/14-1227.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 35] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
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19
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Saurer M, Spahni R, Frank DC, Joos F, Leuenberger M, Loader NJ, McCarroll D, Gagen M, Poulter B, Siegwolf RTW, Andreu-Hayles L, Boettger T, Dorado Liñán I, Fairchild IJ, Friedrich M, Gutierrez E, Haupt M, Hilasvuori E, Heinrich I, Helle G, Grudd H, Jalkanen R, Levanič T, Linderholm HW, Robertson I, Sonninen E, Treydte K, Waterhouse JS, Woodley EJ, Wynn PM, Young GHF. Spatial variability and temporal trends in water-use efficiency of European forests. Glob Chang Biol 2014; 20:3700-12. [PMID: 25156251 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12717] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/19/2014] [Revised: 06/11/2014] [Accepted: 06/28/2014] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
The increasing carbon dioxide (CO2 ) concentration in the atmosphere in combination with climatic changes throughout the last century are likely to have had a profound effect on the physiology of trees: altering the carbon and water fluxes passing through the stomatal pores. However, the magnitude and spatial patterns of such changes in natural forests remain highly uncertain. Here, stable carbon isotope ratios from a network of 35 tree-ring sites located across Europe are investigated to determine the intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE), the ratio of photosynthesis to stomatal conductance from 1901 to 2000. The results were compared with simulations of a dynamic vegetation model (LPX-Bern 1.0) that integrates numerous ecosystem and land-atmosphere exchange processes in a theoretical framework. The spatial pattern of tree-ring derived iWUE of the investigated coniferous and deciduous species and the model results agreed significantly with a clear south-to-north gradient, as well as a general increase in iWUE over the 20th century. The magnitude of the iWUE increase was not spatially uniform, with the strongest increase observed and modelled for temperate forests in Central Europe, a region where summer soil-water availability decreased over the last century. We were able to demonstrate that the combined effects of increasing CO2 and climate change leading to soil drying have resulted in an accelerated increase in iWUE. These findings will help to reduce uncertainties in the land surface schemes of global climate models, where vegetation-climate feedbacks are currently still poorly constrained by observational data.
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20
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Piao S, Sitch S, Ciais P, Friedlingstein P, Peylin P, Wang X, Ahlström A, Anav A, Canadell JG, Cong N, Huntingford C, Jung M, Levis S, Levy PE, Li J, Lin X, Lomas MR, Lu M, Luo Y, Ma Y, Myneni RB, Poulter B, Sun Z, Wang T, Viovy N, Zaehle S, Zeng N. Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models for their response to climate variability and to CO2 trends. Glob Chang Biol 2013; 19:2117-32. [PMID: 23504870 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12187] [Citation(s) in RCA: 194] [Impact Index Per Article: 17.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/08/2013] [Revised: 02/08/2013] [Accepted: 02/17/2013] [Indexed: 05/22/2023]
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to evaluate 10 process-based terrestrial biosphere models that were used for the IPCC fifth Assessment Report. The simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) is compared with flux-tower-based estimates by Jung et al. [Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011) G00J07] (JU11). The net primary productivity (NPP) apparent sensitivity to climate variability and atmospheric CO2 trends is diagnosed from each model output, using statistical functions. The temperature sensitivity is compared against ecosystem field warming experiments results. The CO2 sensitivity of NPP is compared to the results from four Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments. The simulated global net biome productivity (NBP) is compared with the residual land sink (RLS) of the global carbon budget from Friedlingstein et al. [Nature Geoscience 3 (2010) 811] (FR10). We found that models produce a higher GPP (133 ± 15 Pg C yr(-1) ) than JU11 (118 ± 6 Pg C yr(-1) ). In response to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, modeled NPP increases on average by 16% (5-20%) per 100 ppm, a slightly larger apparent sensitivity of NPP to CO2 than that measured at the FACE experiment locations (13% per 100 ppm). Global NBP differs markedly among individual models, although the mean value of 2.0 ± 0.8 Pg C yr(-1) is remarkably close to the mean value of RLS (2.1 ± 1.2 Pg C yr(-1) ). The interannual variability in modeled NBP is significantly correlated with that of RLS for the period 1980-2009. Both model-to-model and interannual variation in model GPP is larger than that in model NBP due to the strong coupling causing a positive correlation between ecosystem respiration and GPP in the model. The average linear regression slope of global NBP vs. temperature across the 10 models is -3.0 ± 1.5 Pg C yr(-1) °C(-1) , within the uncertainty of what derived from RLS (-3.9 ± 1.1 Pg C yr(-1) °C(-1) ). However, 9 of 10 models overestimate the regression slope of NBP vs. precipitation, compared with the slope of the observed RLS vs. precipitation. With most models lacking processes that control GPP and NBP in addition to CO2 and climate, the agreement between modeled and observation-based GPP and NBP can be fortuitous. Carbon-nitrogen interactions (only separable in one model) significantly influence the simulated response of carbon cycle to temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration, suggesting that nutrients limitations should be included in the next generation of terrestrial biosphere models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shilong Piao
- College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China.
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Huntzinger D, Post W, Wei Y, Michalak A, West T, Jacobson A, Baker I, Chen J, Davis K, Hayes D, Hoffman F, Jain A, Liu S, McGuire A, Neilson R, Potter C, Poulter B, Price D, Raczka B, Tian H, Thornton P, Tomelleri E, Viovy N, Xiao J, Yuan W, Zeng N, Zhao M, Cook R. North American Carbon Program (NACP) regional interim synthesis: Terrestrial biospheric model intercomparison. Ecol Modell 2012. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.02.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 146] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 10/28/2022]
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22
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