Trends and determinants of clinical staff retention in the English NHS: a double retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate how demographic, contractual and organisational factors are related to the retention of hospital workers in the English NHS. The study will specifically examine the trends in age-retention profiles.

DESIGN

A double retrospective cross-cohort study using administrative data on senior and specialty doctors, nurses and midwives who were included in the 2009 and 2014 payrolls of all English NHS hospital Trusts. These individuals were tracked over time until 2019 to examine the associations between sociodemographic characteristics and the retention of hospital workers in each cohort. Logistic regressions were estimated at the individual worker level to analyse the data. Additionally, a multilevel panel regression was performed using linked payroll-survey data to investigate the association between hospital organisation characteristics and the retention of clinical staff.

SETTING

Secondary acute and mental healthcare NHS hospital Trusts in England.

PARTICIPANTS

70 777 senior doctors (specialty and specialist doctors and hospital consultants) aged 30-70, and a total of 448 568 between nurses and midwives of any grade aged 20-70, employed by English NHS Trusts.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Employee retention, measured through binary indicators for stayers and NHS leavers, at 1-year and 5-year horizons.

RESULTS

Minority doctors had lower 1-year retention rates in acute care than white doctors, while minority nurses and midwives saw higher retention. Part-time roles decreased retention for doctors but improved it for nurses. Fixed-term contracts negatively impacted both groups' retention. Trends diverged for nurses and doctors from 2009 to 2014-nurses' retention declined while doctors' 5-year retention slightly rose. Engagement boosted retention among clinical staff under 51 years of age in acute care. For nurses over 50, addressing their feedback was positively associated with retention.

CONCLUSIONS

Demographic and contractual factors appear to be stronger predictors of hospital staff retention than organisational characteristics.

Overseas general practitioners (GPs) and prescription behaviour in England

The UK imports many doctors from abroad, where medical training and experience may differ. This study aims to understand how drug prescription behaviour varies in English GP practices with higher shares of foreign-trained GPs. Results indicate that in general prac- tices with a high proportion of GPs trained outside the UK, there are higher prescriptions for antibiotics, mental health medication, analgesics, antacids, and statins, while controlling for patient and practice characteristics. However, we found no significant impact on pa- tient satisfaction or unplanned hospitalisations, suggesting that this behaviour may be due to over-prescribing. Identifying differences in prescribing habits amongst GPs is crucial in deter- mining best policies for ensuring consistent services across GP practices and reducing health inequalities.

The influence of internship training experience on Kenyan and Ugandan doctors' career intentions and decisions: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

Medical internship is a key period for doctors' individual career planning and also a transition period for the broader labour market.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to understand the complex set of factors influencing the career intentions and decisions of junior doctors, post-internship in Kenya and Uganda.

METHODS

We conducted semi-structured interviews with 54 junior medical officers and 14 consultants to understand doctors' internship experiences and subsequent employment experiences. We analysed the data using a mix of a direct content approach, informed by an internship experience and career intentions framework developed primarily from high-income country literature, alongside a more inductive thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Echoing the internship experience and career intentions framework, we found that clinical exposure during internship, work-life balance, aspects of workplace culture such as relationships with consultants and other team members, and concerns over future job security and professional development all influenced Kenyan and Ugandan doctors' career preferences. Additionally, we added a new category to the framework to reflect our finding that interns might want to 'fill a health system gap' when they choose their future careers, based on what they witness as interns. However, often career intentions did not match career and employment decisions due to specific contextual factors, most importantly a shortage of job opportunities.

CONCLUSION

We have shown how internship experiences shape medical doctors' career intentions in Kenya and Uganda and highlighted the importance of job availability and context in influencing doctors' career choices.

Development and validation of a new measurement instrument to assess internship experience of medical doctors in low-income and middle-income countries

Routine surveys are used to understand the training quality and experiences of junior doctors but there are lack of tools designed to evaluate the training experiences of interns in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) where working conditions and resource constraints are challenging. We describe our process developing and validating a 'medical internship experience scale' to address this gap, work involving nine LMICs that varied in geographical locations, income-level and internship training models. We used a scoping review of existing tools, content validity discussions with target populations and an expert panel, back-and-forth translations into four language versions and cognitive interviews to develop and test the tool. Using data collected from 1646 interns and junior medical doctors, we assessed factor structure and assessed its reliability and validity. Fifty items about experiences of medical internship were retained from an initial pool of 102 items. These 50 items represent 6 major factors (constructs): (1) clinical learning and supervision, (2) patient safety, (3) job satisfaction, (4) stress and burnout, (5) mental well-being, and (6) fairness and discrimination. We reflect on the process of multicountry scale development and highlight some considerations for others who may use our scale, using preliminary analyses of the 1646 responses to illustrate that the tool may produce useful data to identify priorities for action. We suggest this tool could enable LMICs to assess key metrics regarding intern straining and initial work experiences and possibly allow comparison across countries and over time, to inform better internship planning and management.

Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Episodes and Health-Related Quality of Life

BACKGROUND

Understanding the physical and mental health needs of the population through evidence-based research is a priority for informing health policy. During the COVID-19 pandemic, population wellbeing dramatically dropped. The relationship between experiences of symptomatic illness episodes and health-related quality of life has been less documented.

OBJECTIVE

This study analysed the association between symptomatic COVID-19 illness and health-related quality of life.

METHODS

The analyses drew from a cross-sectional analysis of data from a national digital symptoms' surveillance survey conducted in the UK in 2020. We identified illness episodes using symptoms and test results data and we analysed validated health-related quality of life outcomes including health utility scores (indexed on a 0-1 cardinal scale) and visual analogue scale (VAS) scores (0-100 scale) generated by the EuroQoL's EQ-5D-5L measure. The econometric model controlled for respondents' demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, comorbidities, social isolation measures, and regional and time fixed effects.

RESULTS

The results showed that the experience of common SARS-CoV-2 symptoms was significantly associated with poorer health-related quality of life across all EQ-5D-5L dimensions of mobility, self-care, usual activities, pain/discomfort and anxiety/depression, a decrement in utility score of - 0.13 and a decrement in the EQ-VAS score of - 15. The findings were robust to sensitivity analyses and restrictive test results-based definitions.

CONCLUSION

This evidence-based study highlights the need for targeting of interventions and services towards those experiencing symptomatic episodes during future waves of the pandemic and helps to quantify the benefits of SARS-CoV-2 treatment in terms of health-related quality of life.

Examining the absorption of post-internship medical officers into the public sector at county-level in devolved Kenya: a qualitative case study

BACKGROUND

After Kenya's decentralization and constitutional changes in 2013, 47 devolved county governments are responsible for workforce planning and recruitment including for doctors/medical officers (MO). Data from the Ministry of Health suggested that less than half of these MOs are being absorbed by the public sector between 2015 and 2018. We aimed to examine how post-internship MOs are absorbed into the public sector at the county-level, as part of a broader project focusing on Kenya's human resources for health.

METHODS

We employed a qualitative case study design informed by a simplified health labour market framework. Data included interviews with 30 MOs who finished their internship after 2018, 10 consultants who have supervised MOs, and 51 county/sub-county-level managers who are involved in MOs' planning and recruitment. A thematic analysis approach was used to examine recruitment processes, outcomes as well as perceived demand and supply.

RESULTS

We found that Kenya has a large mismatch between supply and demand for MOs. An increasing number of medical schools are offering training in medicine while the demand for MOs in the county-level public sector has not been increasing at the same pace due to fiscal resource constraints and preference for other workforce cadres. The local Department of Health put in requests and participate in interviews but do not lead the recruitment process and respondents suggested that it can be subject to political interference and corruption. The imbalance of supply and demand is leading to unemployment, underemployment and migration of post-internship MOs with further impacts on MOs' wages and contract conditions, especially in the private sector.

CONCLUSION

The mismatched supply and demand of MO accompanied by problematic recruitment processes led to many MOs not being absorbed by the public sector and subsequent unemployment and underemployment. Although Kenya has ambitious workforce norms, it may need to take a more pragmatic approach and initiate constructive policy dialogue with stakeholders spanning the education, public and private health sectors to better align MO training, recruitment and management.

Depression and anxiety during and after episodes of COVID-19 in the community

Understanding the connection between physical and mental health with evidence-based research is important to inform and support targeted screening and early treatment. The objective of this study was to document the co-occurrence of physical and mental health conditions during and after the experience of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 illness episodes. Drawing from a national symptoms' surveillance survey conducted in the UK in 2020, this study shows that individuals with symptomatic forms of SARS-CoV-2 (identified by anosmia with either fever, breathlessness or cough) presented significantly higher odds of experiencing moderate and severe anxiety (2.41, CI 2.01-2.90) and depression (3.64, CI 3.06-4.32). Respondents who recovered from physical SARS-CoV-2 symptoms also experienced higher odds of anxiety and depression in comparison to respondents who never experienced symptoms. The findings are robust to alternative estimation models that compare individuals with the same socioeconomic and demographic characteristics and who experienced the same local and contextual factors such as mobility and social restrictions. The findings have important implications for the screening and detection of mental health disorders in primary care settings. They also suggest the need to design and test interventions to address mental health during and after physical illness episodes.

Studying informal care during the pandemic: mental health, gender and job status

Unexpected negative health shocks such as COVID-19 put pressure on households to provide more care to relatives and friends. This study uses data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study to investigate the impact of informal caregiving on mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a difference-in-differences analysis, we find that individuals who started providing care after the pandemic began reported more mental health issues than those who never provided care. Additionally, the gender gap in mental health widened during the pandemic, with women more likely to report mental health issues. We also find that those who began providing care during the pandemic reduced their work hours compared to those who never provided care. Our results suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a negative impact on the mental health of informal caregivers, particularly for women.

"If my buddies use drugs, will I?" Peer effects on Substance Consumption Among Teenagers

During adolescence, interactions with peers influence a teen's attitudes and behaviors. Adolescents seek for peer approval and acceptance, which may bring them to engage in health-risky behaviors such as smoking and drinking. In this study, we estimate the impact of peers on the drug use of Spanish students aged 14 to 18. We focus on the consumption of alcohol and tobacco, the most prevalent substances used at those ages. We estimate the effect of the average classmates' consumption-the measure of peers' use-on individual consumption. Since peers' use affects individual use and vice versa, we correct for this bias using instrumental variables. Results show that peers' consumption increases substantially the probability of using alcohol, while it does not significantly affect tobacco consumption. Our results are not sensitive to using different time spans of consumption. This study shows also novel evidence indicating that the higher the proportion of grade-retained students in the class, the stronger the peer effects, especially for alcohol. This suggests that future reforms of the grade retention policy should also consider the negative effects on non-academic outcomes, such as substance use.

Gender bias in the diagnosis of cardiovascular disorders in Catalonia

In this study, we examine patient gender bias on the probabilities of both visiting the cardiologist and of being diagnosed with a heart disease. Using data from the Catalan Health Survey, we are able to conclude that there is gender bias both in access and diagnosis for patients with high likelihood of suffering heart issues. Our findings suggest that women have lower probabilities of visiting the cardiologist and of being diagnosed with a heart disease after controlling for risk factor and demographics characteristics.

Informal care, older people, and COVID-19: Evidence from the UK

The negative health effects and mortality caused by the COVID-19 pandemic disproportionately fell upon older and disabled people. Protecting these vulnerable groups has been a key policy priority throughout the pandemic and related vaccination campaigns. Using data from the latest survey of the UK Household Longitudinal Study on COVID-19 we found that people who receive informal care have higher probability of being infected when compared to those not receiving informal care. Further, we found that care recipients who are in the lowest income groups have a higher probability of catching the virus when compared to those in the highest income groups. We also estimated the likelihood of being infected for informal carers versus those who did not provide any care during the pandemic and found no significant differences between these two groups. Our empirical findings suggest that the standard measures introduced with the aim of protecting vulnerable groups, such as closing care homes or prioritising the vaccination of their staff, were not sufficient to avoid the spread of the virus amongst disabled and older people. Informal carers play an important role in the social care sector. As such, protecting vulnerable people by investing in the informal care sector should be a priority for future health policy.

How do foundation year and internship experience shape doctors' career intentions and decisions? A meta-ethnography

PURPOSE

Foundation years or internships are an important period for junior doctors to apply their knowledge and gain clinical competency. Experiences gained during the foundation years or internships are likely to inform newly qualified doctors' opinions about how they want to continue their career. We aimed to understand how medical doctors' internship experiences influence their career intention/decision.

METHODS

We conducted qualitative evidence synthesis using meta-ethnography. We searched six electronic bibliographic databases for papers published between 2000-2020 and included papers exploring how foundation years or internship experiences shape doctors' career intention/decisions, including in relation to migration, public/private/dual practice preference, rural/urban preference, and specialty choice. We used the GRADE-CERQual framework to rate confidence in review findings.

RESULTS

We examined 23 papers out of 6085 citations screened. We abstracted three high-level inter-related themes across 14 conceptual categories: (1) Deciding the personal best fit both clinically and in general (which option is 'more me'?) through hands-on and real-life experiences (2) Exploring, experiencing and witnessing workplace norms; and (3) Worrying about the future in terms of job market policies, future training and professional development opportunities. Confidence in findings varied but was rated high in 8 conceptual categories.

CONCLUSIONS

Our meta-ethnographic review revealed a range of ways in which internship experience shapes medical doctors' career intentions/decisions allowing us to produce a broad conceptual model of this phenomenon. The results highlight the importance of ensuring sufficient, positive and inspiring clinical exposure, improving workplace environment, relationship and culture, refraining from undermining specific specialities and communicating contractual and job market policies early on to young doctors, in order to attract doctors to less popular specialties or work locations where they are most needed. We propose our conceptual model should be further tested in new research across a range of contexts.

Addressing the need for an appropriate skilled delivery care workforce in Burundi to support Maternal and Newborn Health Service Delivery Redesign (MNH-Redesign): a sequential study protocol

Background Despite Burundi having formed a network of 112 health facilities that provide emergency obstetric and neonatal care (EmONC), the country continues to struggle with high rates of maternal and newborn deaths. There is a dearth of empirical evidence on the capacity and performance of EmONC health facilities and on the real needs to inform proper planning and policy. Our study aims to generate evidence on the capacity and performance of EmONC health facilities in Burundi and examine how the country might develop an appropriate skilled delivery care workforce to improve maternal and newborn survival. Methods We will use a sequential design where each study phase serially inputs into the subsequent phase. Three main study phases will be carried out: i) an initial policy document review to explore global norms and local policy intentions for EmONC staffing and ii) a cross-sectional survey of all EmONC health facilities to determine what percent of facilities are functional including geographic and population coverage gaps, identify staffing gaps assessed against norms, and identify other needs for health facility strengthening. Finally, we will conduct surveys in selected schools and ministries to examine training and staffing costs to inform staffing options that might best promote service delivery with adequate budget impacts to increase efficiency. Throughout the study, we will engage stakeholders to provide input into what are reasonable staffing norms as well as feasible staffing alternatives within Burundi's budget capacity. Analytical models will be used to develop staffing proposals over a realistic policy timeline. Conclusion Evidence-based health planning improves cost-effectiveness and reduces wastage within scarce and resource-constrained contexts. This study will be the first large-scale research in Burundi that builds on stakeholder support to generate evidence on the capacity of designated EmONC health facilities including human resources diagnosis and develop staffing skill-mix tradeoffs for policy discussion.

Addressing the need for an appropriate skilled delivery care workforce in Burundi to support Maternal and Newborn Health Service Delivery Redesign (MNH-Redesign): a sequential study protocol

Background Despite Burundi having formed a network of 112 health facilities that provide emergency obstetric and neonatal care (EmONC), the country continues to struggle with high rates of maternal and newborn deaths. There is a dearth of empirical evidence on the capacity and performance of EmONC health facilities and on the real needs to inform proper planning and policy. Our study aims to generate evidence on the capacity and performance of EmONC health facilities in Burundi and examine how the country might develop an appropriate skilled delivery care workforce to improve maternal and newborn survival. Methods We will use a sequential design where each study phase serially inputs into the subsequent phase. Three main study phases will be carried out: i) an initial policy document review to explore global norms and local policy intentions for EmONC staffing and ii) a cross-sectional survey of all EmONC health facilities to determine what percent of facilities are functional including geographic and population coverage gaps, identify staffing gaps assessed against norms, and identify other needs for health facility strengthening. Finally, we will conduct surveys in schools and different ministries to examine training and staffing costs to inform staffing options that might best promote service delivery with adequate budget impacts to increase efficiency. Throughout the study, we will engage stakeholders to provide input into what is reasonable staffing norms as well as feasible staffing alternatives within Burundi's budget capacity. Analytical models will be used to develop staffing proposals over a realistic policy timeline. Conclusion Evidence-based health planning improves cost-effectiveness and reduces wastage within scarce and resource-constrained contexts. This study will be the first large-scale research in Burundi that builds on stakeholder support to generate evidence on the capacity of designated EmONC health facilities including human resources diagnosis and develop staffing skill-mix tradeoffs for policy discussion.

Effects of long-term care benefits on healthcare utilization in Catalonia

This paper estimates effects of long-term care (LTC) benefits on utilization of primary and secondary healthcare in Catalonia (Spain). Identification comes from plausibly exogenous variation in the leniency of LTC needs assessment. We estimate that receiving LTC benefits worth 365 euros per month, on average, reduces the probability of avoidable hospital admissions by 66%, and has no significant effect on planned hospitalisations nor on hospitalisation for any reason. Receiving LTC benefits is estimated to reduce unscheduled primary care visits by 44% and has no significant effect on scheduled visits. These findings have important policy implications suggesting that allocating resources to LTC may not only increase the welfare of LTC beneficiaries but also reduce avoidable and unscheduled utilisation of healthcare.

Diverging mental health after Brexit: Evidence from a longitudinal survey

This study analyses the changes in mental health in the UK that occurred as a result of the 2016 referendum on UK membership of the EU (Brexit). Using the Household Longitudinal Study, we compare the levels of self-reported mental distress, mental functioning and life satisfaction be-fore and after the referendum. A linear fixed effects analysis revealed an overall decrease in mental health post-referendum with higher levels of mental distress, and a decline in the SF-12 Mental Component Summary score. Furthermore, the study does not find evidence of significant changes in overall life satisfaction in the two years after the referendum. Younger men, highly educated and Natives, especially those living in stronger "Remain areas", seem to be the groups most affected by the Brexit in terms of mental health. Overall, the results of this study suggest that the outcome of the referendum and the economic uncertainty that it brought impacted the mental health of voters in a negative and diverging way.

Characterising Kenyan hospitals' suitability for medical officer internship training: a secondary data analysis of a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

To characterise the capacity of Kenya internship hospitals to understand whether they are suitable to provide internship training for medical doctors.

DESIGN

A secondary data analysis of a cross-sectional health facility assessment (Kenya Harmonized Health Facility Assessment (KHFA) 2018).

SETTING AND POPULATION

We analysed 61 out of all 74 Kenyan hospitals that provide internship training for medical doctors.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Comparing against the minimum requirement outlined in the national guidelines for medical officer interns, we filtered and identified 166 indicators from the KHFA survey questionnaire and grouped them into 12 domains. An overall capacity index was calculated as the mean of 12 domain-specific scores for each facility.

RESULTS

The average overall capacity index is 69% (95% CI 66% to 72%) for all internship training centres. Hospitals have moderate capacity (over 60%) for most of the general domains, although there is huge variation between hospitals and only 29 out of 61 hospitals have five or more specialists assigned, employed, seconded or part-time-as required by the national guideline. Quality and safety score was low across all hospitals with an average score of 40%. As for major specialties, all hospitals have good capacity for surgery and obstetrics-gynaecology, while mental health was poorest in comparison. Level 5 and 6 facilities (provincial and national hospitals) have higher capacity scores in all domains when compared with level 4 hospitals (equivalent to district hospitals).

CONCLUSION

Major gaps exist in staffing, equipment and service availability of Kenya internship hospitals. Level 4 hospitals (equivalent to district hospitals) are more likely to have a lower capacity index, leading to low quality of care, and should be reviewed and improved to provide appropriate and well-resourced training for interns and to use appropriate resources to avoid improvising.

Does unemployment worsen babies' health? A tale of siblings, maternal behaviour, and selection

We study in-utero exposure to economic fluctuations on birth outcomes by exploiting geographical variation in the unemployment rate across local areas in England, and by comparing siblings born to the same mother. Using rich individual data from hospital administrative records for 2003-2012, babies' health is found to be strongly pro-cyclical. This overall result masks marked differences between babies born in the most affluent areas whose health at birth improves in a recession, and babies born in the average-to-lowest income deprived areas whose health deteriorates. Maternal alcohol consumption, smoking, and delay in the first antenatal care assessment - combined with parental income loss, are found to drive the results. While differences in maternal risky behaviours can explain the heterogenous effects.

The presence of care homes and excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Italy

This paper explores the relationship between the spatial distribution of excess deaths and the presence of care home facilities during the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. Using registry-based mortality data for Lombardy, one of the areas most severely hit by the pandemic we show that the presence of a care home in a municipality is associated with significantly higher excess death rates in the population. This effect appears to be driven by excess mortality in the elderly population of 70 years old and older. Our results are robust to controlling for the number of residents in each care home, suggesting that the presence of such facilities may have acted as one of factors contributing to the diffusion of COVID-19 at the local level.

Missing Diagnoses during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Year in Review

The COVID-19 pandemic has had major impacts on population health not only through COVID-positive cases, but also via the disruption of healthcare services, which in turn has impacted the diagnosis and treatment of all other diseases during this time. We study changes in all new registered diagnoses in ICD-10 groups during 2020 with respect to a 2019 baseline. We compare new diagnoses in 2019 and 2020 based on administrative records of the public primary health system in Central Catalonia, Spain, which cover over 400,000 patients and 3 million patient visits. We study the ratio of new diagnoses between 2019 and 2020 and find an average decline of 31.1% in new diagnoses, with substantial drops in April (61.1%), May (55.6%), and November (52%). Neoplasms experience the largest decline (49.7%), with heterogeneity in the magnitudes of the declines across different types of cancer diagnoses. While we find evidence of temporal variation in new diagnoses, reductions in diagnoses early in the year are not recouped by the year end. The observed decline in new diagnoses across all diagnosis groups suggest a large number of untreated and undetected cases across conditions. Our findings provide a year-end summary of the impact of the pandemic on healthcare activities and can help guide health authorities to design evidence-based plans to target under-diagnosed conditions in 2021.

Analysis of trends in emergency and elective hospital admissions and hospital bed days 1997 to 2015

Despite the concerns and efforts of policy makers, it has proved difficult to restrain the growth in hospital admissions in England. Using data from Hospital Episode Statistics (HES), in this paper we perform, for all patients treated in English hospitals between 1997/8 and 2014/15, an age, period, cohort (APC) analysis to examine how far trends in emergency and elective hospital admissions and bed days can be explained by: the effects of the age distribution of the population, together with rising numbers of older people; cohort effects due to differing admission rates of people born in different years, and period effects, effects relating to a specific year which cannot be explained by either age or cohort effects. This time period was chosen to cover a time of significant policy upheaval in the NHS, including significant reforms to the ways in which hospitals were funded, managed and had patients referred to them. We find that most of the increase in elective admissions is due to the period effect. Elective bed-days have been decreasing, generally due to a shift towards day-cases. Emergency bed-day rates have remained consistent, with the effects of an ageing population being counteracted by increasingly healthy cohorts. These results suggest that demographic factors are not the primary drivers of growth in hospital use and that there may be a role for well-designed policy to influence the current trends.

Years of life lost to COVID-19 in 81 countries

Understanding the mortality impact of COVID-19 requires not only counting the dead, but analyzing how premature the deaths are. We calculate years of life lost (YLL) across 81 countries due to COVID-19 attributable deaths, and also conduct an analysis based on estimated excess deaths. We find that over 20.5 million years of life have been lost to COVID-19 globally. As of January 6, 2021, YLL in heavily affected countries are 2-9 times the average seasonal influenza; three quarters of the YLL result from deaths in ages below 75 and almost a third from deaths below 55; and men have lost 45% more life years than women. The results confirm the large mortality impact of COVID-19 among the elderly. They also call for heightened awareness in devising policies that protect vulnerable demographics losing the largest number of life-years.

Will policy to constrain GP referrals damage health? Evidence using practice level NHS emergency admissions administrative data

Attempts to control hospital expenditure by managing down General Practitioner (GP) referrals are reoccurring features of UK health policy. However, despite the best efforts of GPs to benchmark referral criteria, patient health may be damaged and other costs created by constraining referrals to targets. This paper adopts an indirect method to indicate whether rationing practice referrals may damage population health by distorting the use of health resources away from patients' interests. We utilise a comprehensive database at practice level that allows us to explore the relationship between referrals and emergency admissions, using a panel fixed effects model of admissions that allows for the endogeneity of referrals. We find that practice referrals are positively and partially correlated with emergency admissions, which is consistent with time-varying practice-level sickness shocks driving the relationship between referrals and emergency care, rather than shocks to the practice willingness to refer, or to system reforms. In this environment, government policy to constrain referrals may make the elective care less responsive to practice-level variations in illness, and thereby lower health.

Tools for measuring medical internship experience: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Appropriate and well-resourced medical internship training is important to ensure psychological health and well-being of doctors in training and also to recruit and retain these doctors. However, most reviews focused on clinical competency of medical interns instead of the non-clinical aspects of training. In this scoping review, we aim to review what tools exist to measure medical internship experience and summarize the major domains assessed.

METHOD

The authors searched MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, ERIC, and the Cochrane Library for peer-reviewed studies that provided quantitative data on medical intern's (house officer, foundation year doctor, etc.) internship experience and published between 2000 and 2019. Three reviewers screened studies for eligibility with inclusion criteria. Data including tools used, key themes examined, and psychometric properties within the study population were charted, collated, and summarized. Tools that were used in multiple studies, and tools with internal validity or reliability assessed directed in their intern population were reported.

RESULTS

The authors identified 92 studies that were included in the analysis. The majority of studies were conducted in the US (n = 30, 32.6%) and the UK (n = 20, 21.7%), and only 14 studies (15.2%) were conducted in low- and middle-income countries. Major themes examined for internship experience included well-being, educational environment, and work condition and environment. For measuring well-being, standardized tools like the Maslach Burnout Inventory (for measuring burnout), Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (depression), General Health Questionnaire-12 or 30 (psychological distress) and Perceived Stress Scale (stress) were used multiple times. For educational environment and work condition and environment, there is a lack of widely used tools for interns that have undergone psychometric testing in this population other than the Postgraduate Hospital Educational Environment Measure, which has been used in four different countries.

CONCLUSIONS

There are a large number of tools designed for measuring medical internship experience. International comparability of results from future studies would benefit if tools that have been more widely used are employed in studies on medical interns with further testing of their psychometric properties in different contexts.

Measuring geographical disparities in England at the time of COVID-19: results using a composite indicator of population vulnerability

OBJECTIVES

The growth of COVID-19 infections in England raises questions about system vulnerability. Several factors that vary across geographies, such as age, existing disease prevalence, medical resource availability and deprivation, can trigger adverse effects on the National Health System during a pandemic. In this paper, we present data on these factors and combine them to create an index to show which areas are more exposed. This technique can help policy makers to moderate the impact of similar pandemics.

DESIGN

We combine several sources of data, which describe specific risk factors linked with the outbreak of a respiratory pathogen, that could leave local areas vulnerable to the harmful consequences of large-scale outbreaks of contagious diseases. We combine these measures to generate an index of community-level vulnerability.

SETTING

91 Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) in England.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

We merge 15 measures spatially to generate an index of community-level vulnerability. These measures cover prevalence rates of high-risk diseases; proxies for the at-risk population density; availability of staff and quality of healthcare facilities.

RESULTS

We find that 80% of CCGs that score in the highest quartile of vulnerability are located in the North of England (24 out of 30). Here, vulnerability stems from a faster rate of population ageing and from the widespread presence of underlying at-risk diseases. These same areas, especially the North-East Coast areas of Lancashire, also appear vulnerable to adverse shocks to healthcare supply due to tighter labour markets for healthcare personnel. Importantly, our index correlates with a measure of social deprivation, indicating that these communities suffer from long-standing lack of economic opportunities and are characterised by low public and private resource endowments.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence-based policy is crucial to mitigate the health impact of pandemics such as COVID-19. While current attention focuses on curbing rates of contagion, we introduce a vulnerability index combining data that can help policy makers identify the most vulnerable communities. We find that this index is positively correlated with COVID-19 deaths and it can thus be used to guide targeted capacity building. These results suggest that a stronger focus on deprived and vulnerable communities is needed to tackle future threats from emerging and re-emerging infectious disease.

The long-term effects of mandatory military on health outcomes

Introduction

In the past many young men spent a period of time in military service. To enter in the military service the person should pass a health visit where the physical and mental health conditions were verified. We focus our analysis on the Italian military service that was stopped to be mandatory in 2004, to explore if health visits during the military service have effects in preventing future illnesses. To do that we compare health outcomes of the cohort of Italian people born in 1985 and in 1987, i.e. before and after the suppression of the mandatory military service, respectively.

Methods

Data on demographic characteristics of men potentially enrolling the last compulsory military visit and the one after the abrogation were obtained from the Italian National Statistics Institute. For health outcomes, we obtained for the same population the health records of hospital admissions from 2007 to 2017. A difference-in-difference analysis was performed to calculate whether the probability of being differed among the two cohorts of people.

Results

A total of 215,081 males born in 1985 and 210,616 males born in 1987 were admitted to hospital in the period 2007-2017. A decreasing trend from 2007 to 2017 in overall hospitalization rates were observed for both cohorts of 1987 (1.26 to 1.15) and 1985 (1.22 to 1.13). The regression model showed a significant lower probability for the 1985 cohort, respect to the 1987, of being admitted for an infectious or parasite disease (coefficient -0.83; 95% CI: -1.15 - -0.51) and for tumours (coefficient = -0.83, 95% CI:-1.57 - -0.09)

Conclusions

To our knowledge, this is the first study that attempted to quantify the potential preventive impact in the male population of the physical examination during the mandatory military visit. With an age difference of 2 years between the 2 cohorts, the results show a significant reduction in terms of hospital admission for certain types of health conditions

Key messages

The mandatory military service was helpful in detecting certain diseases whose diagnosis would otherwise be delayed or undetected. Physical and mental examinations for mandatory military service, could see how a potential screening programme of prevention among young men.

The effects of immigration on NHS waiting times

This paper analyzes the effects of immigration on waiting times for the National Health Service (NHS) in England. Linking administrative records from Hospital Episode Statistics (2003-2012) with immigration data drawn from the UK Labour Force Survey, we find that immigration reduced waiting times for outpatient referrals and did not have significant effects on waiting times in accident and emergency departments (A&E) and elective care. The reduction in outpatient waiting times can be explained by the fact that immigration increases natives' internal mobility and that immigrants tend to be healthier than natives who move to different areas. Finally, we find evidence that immigration increased waiting times for outpatient referrals in more deprived areas outside of London. The increase in average waiting times in more deprived areas is concentrated in the years immediately following the 2004 EU enlargement and disappears in the medium term (e.g., 3-4 years).

Elective hospital admissions: secondary data analysis and modelling with an emphasis on policies to moderate growth

Background

The English NHS faces financial pressures that may render the growth rates of elective admissions seen between 2001/2 and 2011/12 unsustainable. A better understanding of admissions growth, and the influence of policy, are needed to minimise the impact on health gain for patients.

Objectives

This project had several objectives: (1) to better understand the determinants of elective activity and policy to moderate growth at minimum health loss for patients; (2) to build a rich data set integrating health, practice and local area data to study general practitioner (GP) referrals and resulting admissions; (3) to predict patients whose treatment is unlikely to be cost-effective using patient-reported outcomes and to examine variation in provider performance; and (4) to study how policies that aim to reduce elective admissions may change demand for emergency care. The main drivers of elective admissions growth have increased either supply of or demand for care, and could include, for example, technical innovations or increased awareness of treatment benefits. Of the factors studied, neither system reform nor population ageing appears to be a key driver. The introduction of the prospective payment tariff ‘Payment by Results’ appears to have led to primary care trusts (PCTs) having increasingly similar lengths of stay. In deprived areas, increasing GP supply appears to moderate elective admissions. Reducing the incidence of single-handed practices tends to reduce referrals and admissions. Policies to reduce referrals are likely to reduce admissions but treatments may be particularly reduced in the lowest referring practices, in which resulting health loss may be greatest. In this model, per full-time equivalent, female and highly experienced GPs identify more patients admitted by specialists.

Results

It appears from our studies that some patient characteristics are associated with not achieving sufficient patient gain to warrant cost-effective treatment. The introduction of independent sector treatment centres is estimated to have caused an increase in emergency activity rates at local PCTs. The explanations offered for increasing elective admissions indicate that they are manageable by health policy.

Conclusions

Further work is required to understand some of the results identified, such as whether or not high-volume Clinical Commissioning Groups are fulfilling unmet need; why some practices refer at low rates relative to admissions; why the period effect, which results from factors that equally affect all in the study at a point in time, dominates in the age–period–cohort analysis; and exactly how the emergency and elective sections of hospital treatment interact. This project relies on the analysis of secondary data. This type of research does not easily facilitate the important input of clinical experts or service users. It would be beneficial if other methods, including surveys and consultation with key stakeholders, could be incorporated into future research now that we have uncovered important questions.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

Transition and duration in disability: New evidence from administrative data

BACKGROUND

In recent decades demographic changes (low fertility rates, increased life expectancy…) in most OECD countries, have brought profound changes in the population pyramid, with several effects in the welfare of society. One of them is the increase in the number of people with disabilities, since age is a determining factor in the emergence of this dependency.

OBJECTIVE/HYPOTHESIS

This paper studies the probability to enter and transit in and from a disability state, as well as its associated mortality, by attending to the distinction between the initial disability level and the process that leads on from it, and by addressing whether and how education, age and income affect this transition.

METHODS

Applying a Markov model and a survival analysis to new Spanish administrative data set (Muestra Continua de Vida Laboral (MCVL)) we estimate the probability that a person changes the state of disability and the duration of her progression in each case.

RESULTS

We find that people with an initial state of disability have a higher propensity to change status and take less time to transit amongst different stages than those who have no disability. Men do so more frequently than women and income have negative effects on the transition.

CONCLUSIONS

These results may help to incorporate into welfare programs some protection mechanisms for delaying transitions and target the most fragile population groups.

Health-related quality of life and direct costs in patients with anterior cruciate ligament injury: single-bundle versus double-bundle reconstruction in a low-demand cohort--a randomized trial with 2 years of follow-up

PURPOSE

To evaluate health-related quality of life (HRQL) in patients undergoing anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstructive surgery by use of 2 procedures and to estimate the direct costs of surgery.

METHODS

We performed a 2-year randomized, prospective intervention study of 2 surgical ACL reconstruction techniques (anatomic single bundle [SB] v double bundle [DB]). Fifty-five consecutive outpatients, with a mean age of 30.88 years, were randomized to SB or DB ACL reconstruction. The Medical Outcomes Study 36-item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) was used to measure HRQL (primary outcome). ACL injuries were assessed by the International Knee Documentation Committee (IKDC) score (secondary outcome). The use of medical resources and their costs were evaluated.

RESULTS

We included 52 patients in the final analyses (23 in the SB group and 29 in the DB group). At baseline, there were no significant differences in study variables. At 2 years of follow-up, there were no significant differences in SF-36 and IKDC scores between groups. However, compared with baseline, the SF-36 physical function, physical role, bodily pain, social function, and emotional role scores were significantly better in the SB group (P < .05), whereas only the physical function dimension score was better in the DB group (P = .047). IKDC scores at 2 years improved significantly in the SB group (P < .001) and DB group (P = .004) compared with baseline. There was a significant correlation between the SF-36 physical function, physical role, and bodily pain dimensions and the IKDC score at 2 years (P < .05). The costs were € 3,251 for the SB group and € 4,172 for the DB group.

CONCLUSIONS

HRQL and medical outcomes were similar between SB and DB ACL reconstruction techniques, 2 years after surgery. However, the SB technique was more cost-effective.