Polygenic Risk Score, Environmental Tobacco Smoke, and Risk of Lung Adenocarcinoma in Never-Smoking Women in Taiwan

Importance

Estimating absolute risk of lung cancer for never-smoking individuals is important to inform lung cancer screening programs.

Objectives

To integrate data on environmental tobacco smoke (ETS), a known lung cancer risk factor, with a polygenic risk score (PRS) that captures overall genetic susceptibility, to estimate the absolute risk of lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) among never-smokers in Taiwan.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The analyses were conducted in never-smoking women in the Taiwan Genetic Epidemiology Study of Lung Adenocarcinoma, a case-control study. Participants were recruited between September 17, 2002, and March 30, 2011. Data analysis was performed from January 17 to July 15, 2022.

Exposures

A PRS was derived using 25 genetic variants that achieved genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8) in a recent genome-wide association study, and ETS was defined as never exposed, exposed at home or at work, and exposed at home and at work.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The Individualized Coherent Absolute Risk Estimator software was used to estimate the lifetime absolute risk of LUAD in never-smoking women aged 40 years over a projected 40-year span among the controls by using the relative risk estimates for the PRS and ETS exposures, as well as age-specific lung cancer incidence rates for never-smokers in Taiwan. Likelihood ratio tests were conducted to assess an additive interaction between the PRS and ETS exposure.

Results

Data were obtained on 1024 women with LUAD (mean [SD] age, 59.6 [11.4] years, 47.9% ever exposed to ETS at home, and 19.5% ever exposed to ETS at work) and 1024 controls (mean [SD] age, 58.9 [11.0] years, 37.0% ever exposed to ETS at home, and 14.3% ever exposed to ETS at work). The overall average lifetime 40-year absolute risk of LUAD estimated using PRS alone was 2.5% (range, 0.6%-10.3%) among women never exposed to ETS. When integrating both ETS and PRS data, the estimated absolute risk was 3.7% (range, 0.6%-14.5%) for women exposed to ETS at home or work and 5.3% (range, 1.2%-12.1%) for women exposed to ETS at home and work. A super-additive interaction between ETS and the PRS (P = 6.5 × 10-4 for interaction) was identified.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study found differences in absolute risk of LUAD attributed to genetic susceptibility according to levels of ETS exposure in never-smoking women. Future studies are warranted to integrate these findings in expanded risk models for LUAD.

Genome-wide association study of lung adenocarcinoma in East Asia and comparison with a European population

Lung adenocarcinoma is the most common type of lung cancer. Known risk variants explain only a small fraction of lung adenocarcinoma heritability. Here, we conducted a two-stage genome-wide association study of lung adenocarcinoma of East Asian ancestry (21,658 cases and 150,676 controls; 54.5% never-smokers) and identified 12 novel susceptibility variants, bringing the total number to 28 at 25 independent loci. Transcriptome-wide association analyses together with colocalization studies using a Taiwanese lung expression quantitative trait loci dataset (n = 115) identified novel candidate genes, including FADS1 at 11q12 and ELF5 at 11p13. In a multi-ancestry meta-analysis of East Asian and European studies, four loci were identified at 2p11, 4q32, 16q23, and 18q12. At the same time, most of our findings in East Asian populations showed no evidence of association in European populations. In our studies drawn from East Asian populations, a polygenic risk score based on the 25 loci had a stronger association in never-smokers vs. individuals with a history of smoking (Pinteraction = 0.0058). These findings provide new insights into the etiology of lung adenocarcinoma in individuals from East Asian populations, which could be important in developing translational applications.

Bayesian hierarchical models for adaptive basket trial designs

Basket trials evaluate a single drug targeting a single genetic variant in multiple cancer cohorts. Empirical findings suggest that treatment efficacy across baskets may be heterogeneous. Most modern basket trial designs use Bayesian methods. These methods require the prior specification of at least one parameter that permits information sharing across baskets. In this study, we provide recommendations for selecting a prior for scale parameters for adaptive basket trials by using Bayesian hierarchical modeling. Heterogeneity among baskets attracts much attention in basket trial research, and substantial heterogeneity challenges the basic assumption of exchangeability of Bayesian hierarchical approach. Thus, we also allowed each stratum-specific parameter to be exchangeable or nonexchangeable with similar strata by using data observed in an interim analysis. Through a simulation study, we evaluated the overall performance of our design based on statistical power and type I error rates. Our research contributes to the understanding of the properties of Bayesian basket trial designs.

Recalibrating Risk Prediction Models by Synthesizing Data Sources: Adapting the Lung Cancer PLCO Model for Taiwan

BACKGROUND

Methods synthesizing multiple data sources without prospective datasets have been proposed for absolute risk model development. This study proposed methods for adapting risk models for another population without prospective cohorts, which would help alleviate the health disparities caused by advances in absolute risk models. To exemplify, we adapted the lung cancer risk model PLCOM2012, well studied in the west, for Taiwan.

METHODS

Using Taiwanese multiple data sources, we formed an age-matched case-control study of ever-smokers (AMCCSE), estimated the number of ever-smoking lung cancer patients in 2011-2016 (NESLP2011), and synthesized a dataset resembling the population of cancer-free ever-smokers in 2010 regarding the PLCOM2012 risk factors (SPES2010). The AMCCSE was used to estimate the overall calibration slope, and the requirement that NESLP2011 equals the estimated total risk of individuals in SPES2010 was used to handle the calibration-in-the-large problem.

RESULTS

The adapted model PLCOT-1 (PLCOT-2) had an AUC of 0.78 (0.75). They had high performance in calibration and clinical usefulness on subgroups of SPES2010 defined by age and smoking experience. Selecting the same number of individuals for low-dose computed tomography screening using PLCOT-1 (PLCOT-2) would have identified approximately 6% (8%) more lung cancers than the US Preventive Services Task Forces 2021 criteria. Smokers having 40+ pack-years had an average PLCOT-1 (PLCOT-2) risk of 3.8% (2.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

The adapted PLCOT models had high predictive performance.

IMPACT

The PLCOT models could be used to design lung cancer screening programs in Taiwan. The methods could be applicable to other cancer models.

Impaired Chromatin Remodeling Predicts Better Survival to Modified Gemcitabine and S-1 plus Nivolumab in Advanced Biliary Tract Cancer: A Phase II T1219 Study

PURPOSE

Modified gemcitabine and S-1 (GS) is an active regimen for patients with advanced biliary tract cancer (ABTC) in our previous study. Herein, we report the results of a single-arm phase II of nivolumab plus modified GS (NGS) as first-line treatment in ABTC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients received nivolumab 240 mg and 800 mg/m2 gemcitabine on day 1 plus daily 80/100/120 mg of S-1 (based on body surface area) on days 1 to 10, in a 2-week cycle. The primary endpoint was the objective response rate (ORR). The correlation between therapeutic efficacy and genetic alterations with signatures identified by targeted next-generation sequencing panels was explored.

RESULTS

Between December 2019 and December 2020, 48 eligible patients were enrolled. After a median of 17.6 months of follow-up, the ORR was 45.9% [95% confidence interval (CI), 31.4%-60.8%]. The median progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) was 9.1 (95% CI, 5.8-9.6) and 19.2 (95% CI, 11.6-not reached) months, respectively. All grade 3/4 treatment-related adverse events (AE) were less than 10%, except fatigue (14.6%) and skin rash (10.4%). Eighteen patients (35.4%) experienced immune-related AEs without treatment-related death. High tumor mutational burden (TMB-H; top 20%; ≥7.1 mut/Mb) only predicted prolonged median PFS but not OS. Up to 28.9% of patients who harbored loss-of-function mutations in chromatin remodeling genes demonstrated significantly longer median PFS and OS than those without alterations.

CONCLUSIONS

NGS is a safe and promising regimen in ABTC. Impaired functions of chromatin remodeling genes may be a potential surrogate biomarker with predictive value in this study.

Three-Stage Pooled Plasma Hepatitis C Virus RNA Testing for the Identification of Acute HCV Infections in At-Risk Populations

Timely diagnosis and treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection may prevent its transmission. We evaluated the performance and cost reductions of the pooled plasma HCV RNA testing strategy to identify acute HCV infections among people living with HIV (PLWH). PLWH with sexually transmitted infections, elevated aminotransferases within the past 6 months or past HCV infections (high-risk) and those without (low-risk) were enrolled prospectively. Participants underwent three-stage pooled plasma HCV RNA testing every 12 to 24 weeks until detection of HCV RNA or completion of a 48-week follow-up. The three-stage strategy combined 20 individual specimens into a stage 1 pool, 5 individual specimens from the stage 1 pool that tested positive for HCV RNA in the stage 2 mini-pool, followed by testing of individual specimens of the stage 2 mini-pool tested positive for HCV RNA. A simulation was constructed to investigate the cost reductions and pooled sensitivity and specificity under different combinations of HCV prevalence and pool/mini-pool sizes. Between June 25, 2019 and March 31, 2021, 32 cases of incident HCV viremia were identified in 760 high-risk PLWH that were enrolled 834 times, giving an incidence rate of 56.6 per 1000 person-years of follow-up (PYFU). No cases of HCV viremia were identified in 557 low-risk PLWH during a total of 269.2 PYFU. Simulation analysis suggested that this strategy could reduce HCV RNA testing cost by 50% to 86% with HCV viremia prevalence of 1% to 5% and various pooled sizes despite compromised pooled sensitivity. This pooled plasma HCV RNA testing strategy is cost-saving to identify acute HCV infections in high-risk populations with HCV viremia prevalence of 1% to 5%.

IMPORTANCE Our three-stage pooled plasma HCV RNA testing successfully identified HCV viremia in high-risk PLWH with a testing cost reduction of 84.5%. Simulation analysis offered detailed information regarding the selection of pool and mini-pool sizes in settings of different HCV epidemiology and the performance of HCV RNA testing to optimize the cost reduction.

Trial Designs for Integrating Novel Therapeutics into the Management of Intermediate-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) consists of heterogeneous groups of patients in terms of tumor burden and organ function reserves. Although liver-directed therapy (LDT), including trans-catheter arterial chemoembolization, radiofrequency ablation or even surgical resection, is the recommended frontline treatment modality, intrahepatic and distant failures are common. The recent advances in systemic treatment, notably the introduction of immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI)-based therapy, have significantly improved the objective tumor response rate, quality of response and overall survival in patients with recurrent and advanced HCC. Whether the combination of systemic treatment and LDT can further improve the outcome of patients with intermediate-stage HCC is currently being extensively evaluated. In this article, the recent clinical trials incorporating different ICI-based combinations with different LDT for intermediate-stage HCC were reviewed focusing on trial design issues, including patient selection, endpoint definition, and biomarker development. The strength and caveats of different combination strategies and novel biomarker development were discussed.

The Prognostic and Predictive Role of Chromogranin A in Gastroenteropancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors - A Single-Center Experience

Chromogranin A (CgA) is a non-specific biomarker excreted by neuroendocrine tumor (NET) cells. Elevation of circulating CgA level can be detected in gastroenteropancreatic (GEP)-NET patients and has been shown to correlate with tumor burden. The prognostic and predictive roles of CgA level and the change of CgA level are controversial. In this study, we retrospectively analyzed 102 grade 1/2 GEP-NET patients with available baseline or serial follow-up CgA levels from the National Cheng Kung University Hospital to evaluate the association between circulating CgA level and the tumor extent, overall survival (OS), and tumor response prediction. The baseline characteristics, baseline CgA level, and change of CgA level during follow-up and their association was analyzed. Sixty cases had baseline CgA levels available prior to any treatment and ninety-four cases had serial follow-up CgA levels available during treatment or surveillance. Baseline CgA levels were associated with stage and sex. Higher baseline CgA levels were associated with worse OS after adjusting for sex, stage, grade, primary site, and functionality (hazard ratio=13.52, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.06-172.47, P=0.045). The cross-sectional analysis for the change of CgA level during follow-up showed that a ≥ 40% increase of CgA meant a higher probability of developing tumor progression or recurrence than those with a < 40% increase of CgA level (odds ratio=5.04, 95% CI, 1.31-19.4, P=0.019) after adjusting for sex, age, grade, stage, and functionality. Our study results suggest that CgA may be a predictive marker for tumor burden, OS, and tumor progression in GEP-NET patients.

Use of likelihood estimates for variances for the design and evaluation of multiregional clinical trials with heterogeneous variances

Globalized drug development studies, such as multiregional clinical trials (MRCTs), have attracted much attention due to their ability to expedite drug development and shorten the time lag of drug release. While observing the overall effect of a new drug, the region-specific effects to support drug registration in constituent regions can also be evaluated. Several challenges arise in conducting MRCTs, such as the heterogeneity in the variability of the primary endpoint across regions. However, most of the existing statistical methods assume a common variability, which may not be valid in practice due to differences across regions (eg, diversities in ethnicity or disparities in medical culture/practice). We present a statistical method for the design and evaluation of MRCTs to consider the heterogeneous variability across regions. We assessed the overall sample size requirement and addressed the region-specific sample size determination to establish the consistency of treatment effects between the specific region and the entire group. We demonstrate the proposed approach with numerical examples.

A phase 2 study of liposomal irinotecan with 5-fluorouracil and leucovorin in squamous cell carcinoma of head and neck or esophagus after prior platinum-based chemotherapy or chemoradiotherapy

6025

Background: Liposomal irinotecan (nal-IRI) + 5-FU/LV has been approved and used in treating patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer after gemcitabine-based therapy through the NAPOLI-1 study result. This phase 2 trial evaluated the activity of NAPOLI-1 regimen in patients with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of head and neck (H&N) or esophagus that progressed on or recur after platinum-based chemotherapy or concurrent chemoradiotherapy. Methods: Patients with histologically confirmed SCC of H&N or esophagus whose disease progressed while on or progressed/recurred within 6 months after platinum-based chemotherapy or chemoradiotherapy, and unsuitable for further surgical or radiation intervention were eligible. Prior anti-EGFR or anti-PD1/anti-PDL1 treatment was allowed. The regimen consisted of nal-IRI 70 mg/m2 (irinotecan free base) followed by LV 400 mg/m2 and 5-FU 2400 mg/m2, every 2 weeks. A Simon’s 2-stage design was used with planned 30 evaluable patients in the first stage and 52 evaluable patients in total. The primary endpoint is objective tumor response. Results: From December 2018 to April 2020, 59 subjects were enrolled, including 16 with esophagus cancer and 43 with H&N cancer. Thirty-seven (63%) patients had metastatic disease at enrollment. The mean of treatment cycles were 5 (range, 1-21). Among the total 59 enrolled subjects, 53 subjects (14 esophagus cancer, 39 H&N cancer) were evaluable for objective tumor response. The disease control rate in esophagus cancer was 50% (7 SD, intent-to-treat (ITT) population 43.8%). For H&N patients, 1 CR, 4 PR, and 23 SD resulted in the response rate 12.8% (11.6% in ITT population) and disease control rate 72% (65% in ITT population). The median progression free survival (N = 59) was 2.5 months (esophagus/H&N: 1.5/2.7 months) and the median overall survival was 5.9 months (esophagus/H&N: 4.2/7.3 months). Seventy-eight percent of patients had ≥grade 3 treatment-related adverse events. The most frequent ≥grade 3 toxicities were decreased lymphocyte count (50.8%), decreased neutrophil count (42.4%), and decreased white blood count (33.9%). Only 3 patients (5%) had grade 3 diarrhea during the treatment period. Conclusions: This study showed the modest efficacy and manageable toxicity profile of nal-IRI+5-FU/LV in platinum-refractory locally advanced or metastatic H&N or esophagus cancer patients. Clinical benefits including complete tumor response were noted in H&N patients. The role of this regimen in selective patients and the efficacy of combination with immunotherapeutic agents warrant further explorations. Clinical trial information: NCT03712397.

TCOG T5217 trial: A phase II randomized study of SLOG versus modified FOLFIRINOX as the first-line treatment in locally advanced or metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

4143

Background: The triplet regimen of S-1, leucovorin, oxaliplatin and gemcitabine (SLOG) has shown promising efficacy for metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) in our previous study. Current multicenter randomized, phase II study compared the efficacy and safety of SLOG versus modified FOLFIRINOX (mFOLFIRINOX) in patients with advanced/metastatic PDAC. Methods: Patients with chemo-naïve, histologically confirmed advanced/metastatic PDAC, were randomly assigned to either SLOG (gemcitabine 800 mg/m2, fixed-rate infusion and oxaliplatin 85 mg/m2 on day 1, plus daily 40/50/60 mg of S-1 based on BSA and 30 mg of oral leucovorin, twice daily, on days 1-7, every 2 weeks) or mFOLFIRINOX (oxaliplatin 85 mg/m2, irinotecan 150 mg/m2 and leucovorin 400 mg/m2 on day 1 plus 5-FU 2400 mg/m2 for 46 hrs, every 2 weeks). Patients were stratified according to disease extent, ECOG PS and primary tumor location. The primary endpoint was 6-month progression-free survival (PFS) rate. The secondary endpoints were objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR), PFS, and overall survival (OS) and safety profile. Tumor response was assessed by CT/MRI every 8 weeks according to RECIST v1.1. As an exploratory trial, 130 (65 per arm) patients were estimated to detect a two-sided 15% difference in 6-month PFS (60% in SLOG and 45% in mFOLFIRINOX) with a significant level of α = 0.1 and β = 0.25. Results: Between March 2018 and October 2019, 130 patients were accrued. One patient who was assigned to mFOLFIRINOX arm didn’t receive assigned treatment. Of them, 62.3% were male, 45.4% were ECOG PS0, 81.5% had metastatic diseases, and 16.9% had prior surgery. The 6-month PFS rate was 55.4% in SLOG arm (n = 65) and 50% in mFOLFIRINOX arm (n = 64) (p = 0.850). The ORR and DCR in the SLOG and the mFOLFIRINOX arms were 40% versus 26.6% (p = 0.135) and 76.2% versus 71.9% (p = 0.550), respectively. The median PFS was 7.5 months in SLOG arm and 6.5 months in mFOLFIRINOX arm (p = 0.395); while the median OS was 12.9 months in SLOG arm and 12.1 months in mFOLFIRINOX arm (p = 0.88). Ten patients underwent conversion surgery, of whom 7 had SLOG and 3 had mFOLFIRINOX. The incidence of grade 3/4 neutropenia was significantly higher in mFOLFIRINOX arm (53.2% vs. 16.9% in SLOG arm, p < 0.0001). Conclusions: SLOG could achieve comparable but numerically better ORR, and median PFS and OS as compared to mFOLFIRINOX in patients of advanced PDAC. SLOG can be an alternative first-line regimen for advanced PDAC patients. Clinical trial information: NCT03443492.

High expression of krüppel-like factor 10 or Smad4 predicts clinical benefit of adjuvant chemoradiotherapy in curatively resected pancreatic adenocarcinoma: From a randomized phase III trial

PURPOSE

Our previous studies have demonstrated that Krüppel-like factor 10 (Klf10) modulated tumor radiation resistance and helps to predict clinical outcomes of pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC). This study aimed to evaluate whether the expression levels of Klf10, Smad4 and Runx3 can help predict the benefits of adjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in resected PDAC.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

Tissue specimens were collected from 111 patients with curatively resected PDAC who were enrolled into a randomized trial comparing adjuvant gemcitabine with or without CRT. Immunohistochemical expression of biomarkers was quantified by pathologists blinded to patient outcomes through a grading system based on the extent and intensity of staining. The predictive value of biomarkers was analyzed using SAS statistical software.

RESULTS

In total, 56 and 55 patients received adjuvant gemcitabine alone and additional CRT, respectively. The expression levels of Klf10, Smad4 and postoperative CA19-9 were significantly correlated with overall survival (OS) (p = 0.013, 0.045, and 0.047, respectively). Multivariable analysis showed that the expression level of postoperative serum CA19-9 and tumor tissue Klf10 expression level were significant predictors for OS (p = 0.038, and 0.028, respectively). Patients with high Klf10 or Smad4 (n = 55), had a significantly better local recurrence-free survival (∞ vs 19.8 months; p = 0.026) and a longer OS (33.0 vs 23.0 months; p = 0.12) if they received additional adjuvant CRT than gemcitabine only. The results were similar after adjusted by postoperative level of CA19-9.

CONCLUSION

Patients with curatively resected PDAC and a high expression of either Klf10 or Smad4 have high chances of benefiting from adjuvant CRT. Combining Klf10 and Smad4 to predict the benefits of adjuvant CRT in resected PDAC deserves further validation.

Tolerance interval testing for assessing accuracy and precision simultaneously

Tolerance intervals have been recommended for simultaneously validating both the accuracy and precision of an analytical procedure. However, statistical inferences for the corresponding hypothesis testing are scarce. The aim of this study is to establish a whole statistical inference for tolerance interval testing, including sample size determination, power analysis, and calculation of p-value. More specifically, the proposed method considers the bounds of a tolerance interval as random variables so that a bivariate distribution can be derived. Simulations confirm the theoretical properties of the method. Furthermore, an example is used to illustrate the proposed method.

Sub-multiplicative interaction between polygenic risk score and household coal use in relation to lung adenocarcinoma among never-smoking women in Asia

We previously identified 10 lung adenocarcinoma susceptibility loci in a genome-wide association study (GWAS) conducted in the Female Lung Cancer Consortium in Asia (FLCCA), the largest genomic study of lung cancer among never-smoking women to date. Furthermore, household coal use for cooking and heating has been linked to lung cancer in Asia, especially in Xuanwei, China. We investigated the potential interaction between genetic susceptibility and coal use in FLCCA. We analyzed GWAS-data from Taiwan, Shanghai, and Shenyang (1472 cases; 1497 controls), as well as a separate study conducted in Xuanwei (152 cases; 522 controls) for additional analyses. We summarized genetic susceptibility using a polygenic risk score (PRS), which was the weighted sum of the risk-alleles from the 10 previously identified loci. We estimated associations between a PRS, coal use (ever/never), and lung adenocarcinoma with multivariable logistic regression models, and evaluated potential gene-environment interactions using likelihood ratio tests. There was a strong association between continuous PRS and lung adenocarcinoma among never coal users (Odds Ratio (OR) = 1.69 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 1.53, 1.87), p=1 × 10^-26). This effect was attenuated among ever coal users (OR = 1.24 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.50), p = 0.02, p-interaction = 6 × 10^-3). We observed similar attenuation among coal users from Xuanwei. Our study provides evidence that genetic susceptibility to lung adenocarcinoma among never-smoking Asian women is weaker among coal users. These results suggest that lung cancer pathogenesis may differ, at least partially, depending on exposure to coal combustion products. Notably, these novel findings are among the few instances of sub-multiplicative gene-environment interactions in the cancer literature.

On selecting the critical boundary functions in group-sequential trials with two time-to-event outcomes

We investigate selection of critical boundary functions for testing the hypotheses of two time-to-event outcomes as both primary endpoints or a primary and a secondary endpoint in group-sequential clinical trials, where (1) the effect sizes of endpoints are unequal, or (2) one endpoint is for short-term evaluation and the other for long-term evaluation. Bonferroni-Holm and fixed-sequence procedures are considered. We assess the effects of the magnitudes of the hazard ratios and the correlation between the endpoints on statistical powers and provide guidance for consideration.

A multicenter, randomized, open-label, controlled trial to evaluate the efficacy and tolerability of hydroxychloroquine and a retrospective study in adult patients with mild to moderate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Objective

In this study, we evaluated the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) via a randomized controlled trial (RCT) and a retrospective study.

Methods

Subjects admitted to 11 designated public hospitals in Taiwan between April 1 and May 31, 2020, with COVID-19 diagnosis confirmed by pharyngeal real-time RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2, were randomized at a 2:1 ratio and stratified by mild or moderate illness. HCQ (400 mg twice for 1 d or HCQ 200 mg twice daily for 6 days) was administered. Both the study and control group received standard of care (SOC). Pharyngeal swabs and sputum were collected every other day. The proportion and time to negative viral PCR were assessed on day 14. In the retrospective study, medical records were reviewed for patients admitted before March 31, 2020.

Results

There were 33 and 37 cases in the RCT and retrospective study, respectively. In the RCT, the median times to negative rRT-PCR from randomization to hospital day 14 were 5 days (95% CI; 1, 9 days) and 10 days (95% CI; 2, 12 days) for the HCQ and SOC groups, respectively (p = 0.40). On day 14, 81.0% (17/21) and 75.0% (9/12) of the subjects in the HCQ and SOC groups, respectively, had undetected virus (p = 0.36). In the retrospective study, 12 (42.9%) in the HCQ group and 5 (55.6%) in the control group had negative rRT-PCR results on hospital day 14 (p = 0.70).

Conclusions

Neither study demonstrated that HCQ shortened viral shedding in mild to moderate COVID-19 subjects.

Use of tolerance intervals for assessing biosimilarity

A biosimilar is a biological product that is highly similar to an existing approved reference drug and has no clinically meaningful difference from it. Biosimilars are composed of or derived from living cells or organisms. Therefore, they are often sensitive to slight variations in the manufacturing process. Consequently, in demonstrating biosimilarity, it might be inappropriate to focus solely on the mean difference, or ratio of means, while ignoring the variabilities associated with the test and reference products. It is important to account for the entire population of clinical outcomes. Thus, we propose using the concept of tolerance intervals and related hypothesis testing for assessing biosimilarity. Our approach has the advantage of considering entire populations associated with both groups. A real example is used to illustrate our proposed method, and our approach is more stringent than those that employ confidence intervals. This is specifically the case when the mean difference of two drugs is not sufficiently large, but the biosimilar has a higher variability than that in the reference drug.

Use of a two-sided tolerance interval in the design and evaluation of biosimilarity in clinical studies

In assessing biosimilarity between two products, the question to ask is always "How similar is similar?" Traditionally, the equivalence of the means between products is the primary consideration in a clinical trial. This study suggests an alternative assessment for testing a certain percentage of the population of differences lying within a prespecified interval. In doing so, the accuracy and precision are assessed simultaneously by judging whether a two-sided tolerance interval falls within a prespecified acceptance range. We further derive an asymptotic distribution of the tolerance limits to determine the sample size for achieving a targeted level of power. Our numerical study shows that the proposed two-sided tolerance interval test controls the type I error rate and provides sufficient power. A real example is presented to illustrate our proposed approach.

Operational Experiences in China and Statistical Issues on the Conduct of Clinical Trials During the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 outbreak is impacting clinical trials in many ways, such as patient recruitment, data collection and data analysis. To proceed in this difficult time, the adoption of new technologies and new approaches for conducting clinical trials needs to be accelerated. Simultaneously, regulatory agencies such as the US FDA and EMA have issued guidance to help the pharmaceutical industry conduct clinical trials of medical products during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this article, we will address some statistical issues and operational experiences in the conduction of clinical trials during the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, we will share experiences in the applications of remote clinical trials in China. Statistical issues related to protocol modifications caused by COVID-19 will be raised.

Use of a tolerance interval approach as a statistical quality control tool for traditional Chinese medicine

Raw materials for traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) are often from different resources and its final product may also be made by different sites. Therefore, variabilities from different resources such as site-to-site or within site component-to-component may be expected. Consequently, test for consistency in raw materials, in-process materials, and/or final product has become an important issue in the quality control (QC) process in TCM development. In this paper, a statistical QC process for raw materials and/or the final product of TCM is proposed based on a two sided [Formula: see text]-content, [Formula: see text]-confidence tolerance interval. More specifically, we construct the tolerance interval for a random-effects model to assess the QC of TCM products from different regions and possibly different product batches. The products can be claimed to be consistency when the constructed tolerance interval is within the permitted range. Given the region and batch effects, sample sizes can also be calculated to ensure the desired measure of goodness. An example is presented to illustrate the proposed approach.

An Open-Label, Single-Arm, Two-Stage, Multicenter, Phase II Study to Evaluate the Efficacy of TLC388 and Genomic Analysis for Poorly Differentiated Neuroendocrine Carcinomas

BACKGROUND

The discovery of effective therapeutic options for treating metastatic poorly differentiated neuroendocrine carcinoma (NEC) after prior platinum-based chemotherapy remains elusive. This study analyzed the efficacy of TLC388 (Lipotecan) Hydrochloride, a novel camptothecin analog, for pretreated patients with metastatic NEC.

METHODS

This single-arm, two-stage, phase II clinical trial was conducted at four community and academic centers in Taiwan. Patients aged 20 years or older with confirmed metastatic NEC and who had received prior systemic therapy with etoposide plus cisplatin were enrolled between July 2015 and May 2018. Patients received 40 mg/m² of TLC388 intravenously on days 1, 8, and 15 of a 28-day cycle until disease progression or unacceptable toxic effects. Gene mutations were analyzed by next-generation sequencing.

RESULTS

Twenty-three patients with a median age of 61 (range, 44-73) years, 18 of whom were men (78%), were enrolled. Patients received a median of 2 (range, 0-6) treatment cycles. Among 20 evaluable patients, 3 patients exhibited stable disease and no patient experienced a complete or partial remission, resulting in a disease control rate of 15%. Median progression-free survival was 1.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.4-15) months, and the median overall survival was 4.3 (95% CI, 1.7-15) months. The most common treatment-related hematologic adverse events at grade 3 or higher were leukopenia (22.7%), anemia (31.8%), and thrombocytopenia (18.2%). The most frequent mutated genes in 35 patients with NEC were ARSA, DPYD, HEXB, BRCA1, HPD, MYBPC3, BBS2, IL7R, HSD17B4, and PRODH.

CONCLUSION

TLC388 demonstrates limited antitumor activity in metastatic NEC. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02457273.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

Poorly differentiated neuroendocrine carcinomas (NECs) are rare and aggressive. Currently, effective therapeutic options for treating metastatic poorly differentiated NECs beyond platinum-based chemotherapy remain elusive. In this single-arm, multicenter, phase II study, 23 patients with NEC were enrolled and received TLC388 (Lipotecan) Hydrochloride, which is a novel camptothecin analog. The results demonstrated the disease control rate of 15%, the median progression-free survival of 1.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.4-15) months, and the median overall survival of 4.3 (95% CI, 1.7-15) months. Most importantly, several novel genetic mutations and pathways were identified. These results offer the opportunity to develop future treatment strategies in this rare cancer.

Predicting Lung Cancer Occurrence in Never-Smoking Females in Asia: TNSF-SQ, a Prediction Model

BACKGROUND

High disease burden suggests the desirability to identify high-risk Asian never-smoking females (NSF) who may benefit from low-dose CT (LDCT) screening. In North America, one is eligible for LDCT screening if one satisfies the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) criteria or has model-estimated 6-year risk greater than 0.0151. According to two U.S. reports, only 36.6% female patients with lung cancer met the USPSTF criteria, while 38% of the ever-smokers ages 55 to 74 years met the USPSTF criteria.

METHODS

Using data on NSFs in the Taiwan Genetic Epidemiology Study of Lung Adenocarcinoma and the Taiwan Biobank before August 2016, we formed an age-matched case-control study consisting of 1,748 patients with lung cancer and 6,535 controls. Using these and an estimated age-specific lung cancer 6-year incidence rate among Taiwanese NSFs, we developed the Taiwanese NSF Lung Cancer Risk Models using genetic information and simplified questionnaire (TNSF-SQ). Performance evaluation was based on the newer independent datasets: Taiwan Lung Cancer Pharmacogenomics Study (LCPG) and Taiwan Biobank data after August 2016 (TWB2).

RESULTS

The AUC based on the NSFs ages 55 to 70 years in LCPG and TWB2 was 0.714 [95% confidence intervals (CI), 0.660-0.768]. For women in TWB2 ages 55 to 70 years, 3.94% (95% CI, 2.95-5.13) had risk higher than 0.0151. For women in LCPG ages 55 to 74 years, 27.03% (95% CI, 19.04-36.28) had risk higher than 0.0151.

CONCLUSIONS

TNSF-SQ demonstrated good discriminative power. The ability to identify 27.03% of high-risk Asian NSFs ages 55 to 74 years deserves attention.

IMPACT

TNSF-SQ seems potentially useful in selecting Asian NSFs for LDCT screening.

A multicenter, phase I/II trial of biweekly S-1, leucovorin, oxaliplatin and gemcitabine in metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma-TCOG T1211 study

BACKGROUND

This phase I/II study evaluated the feasibility and efficacy of S-1, leucovorin, oxaliplatin and gemcitabine (SLOG), a triplet regimen, for treating patients with metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC).

METHODS

Patients with chemo-naive, metastatic PDAC were eligible to receive fixed-rate infusion (10 mg/m²/min) of gemcitabine of 800 mg/m² followed by oxaliplatin of 85 mg/m² on day 1 plus oral S-1 and leucovorin (20 mg/m²) twice daily from days 1 to 7 in a 2-week cycle. The dose of S-1 would be escalated from 20, 30, 35 to 40 mg/m2 in a 3 + 3 designed phase I part to determine the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) for phase II study, in which the primary end-point was objective response rate (ORR). The recommended dose of S-1 was from phase I. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01415713.

RESULTS

Seventy-three patients were enrolled. In the phase I study (n = 19), the MTD of S-1 was 35 mg/m² twice daily. Of 54 patients in phase II, the ORR was 40.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 28%-55%). The median progression-free survival and overall survival were 7.6 (95% CI, 5.6-11.0) and 11.4 (95% CI, 8.1-16.3) months, respectively. The most common grade III/IV adverse event was neutropenia (40.7%). Twenty-four percent of patients had SLOG treatment for more than 1 year. The mean relative dose intensities of gemcitabine, oxaliplatin, and S-1 were 92%, 92% and 89%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Biweekly SLOG is a feasible regimen with promising activity and safety profiles. A randomised study comparing SLOG versus modified folinic acid, fluorouracil, irinotecan, and oxaliplatin (FOLFIRINOX) in advanced PDAC is ongoing (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03443492).

Tuberculosis infection and lung adenocarcinoma: Mendelian randomization and pathway analysis of genome-wide association study data from never-smoking Asian women

We investigated whether genetic susceptibility to tuberculosis (TB) influences lung adenocarcinoma development among never-smokers using TB genome-wide association study (GWAS) results within the Female Lung Cancer Consortium in Asia. Pathway analysis with the adaptive rank truncated product method was used to assess the association between a TB-related gene-set and lung adenocarcinoma using GWAS data from 5512 lung adenocarcinoma cases and 6277 controls. The gene-set consisted of 31 genes containing known/suggestive associations with genetic variants from previous TB-GWAS. Subsequently, we followed-up with Mendelian Randomization to evaluate the association between TB and lung adenocarcinoma using three genome-wide significant variants from previous TB-GWAS in East Asians. The TB-related gene-set was associated with lung adenocarcinoma (p = 0.016). Additionally, the Mendelian Randomization showed an association between TB and lung adenocarcinoma (OR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.66, p = 0.027). Our findings support TB as a causal risk factor for lung cancer development among never-smoking Asian women.

Cost-effectiveness of preventing hepatitis B virus reactivation in patients with lymphoma and resolved HBV infection

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) reactivation may occur in >10% of patients with lymphoma and resolved HBV infection who undergo rituximab-containing chemotherapy. Preventive strategies may have marked impact on resource allocation in HBV endemic areas. This study aims to compare the cost-effectiveness between prophylactic antiviral therapy and HBV DNA monitoring for the prevention of HBV-related complications.

METHODS

Data sources are studies of HBV-related events and survival for patients with lymphoma and resolved HBV infection published since 2006. Decision tree analysis was used to compare the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of preventing HBV-related death or liver decompensation for patients who undergo first-line rituximab-containing chemotherapy. Sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the impact of the preventive efficacy, the duration of prophylactic antiviral therapy, and the cost of different interventions. The direct medical cost was derived from the database of the NHI Administration, Taiwan. The time frame of our analysis was set to 3 years after the completion of chemotherapy.

RESULTS

The median ICER of prophylactic antiviral therapy, according to current practice guidelines, ranged between USD 150,000 and 250,000 if we apply the guidelines generally. When a long-course (12 months after completion of chemotherapy according to clinical guidelines) prophylactic therapy was assumed, Option A was cheaper and more effective only in the anti-HBs-negative subgroup (median ICER US$149,932 vs. US$161,526, p = 0.013).

CONCLUSION

Identification of anti-HBs-negative subgroups is critical to improve the cost-effectiveness of prophylactic antiviral therapy in lymphoma patients with resolved HBV infection.

An open label, single-arm, two-stage, multicenter, phase II study to evaluate the efficacy and safety of TLC388 as second-line treatment in subjects with poorly differentiated neuroendocrine carcinomas (TCOGT1Z14)

4101

Background: Therapeutic options for metastatic poorly differentiated neuroendocrine carcinoma (NEC) after prior platinum‐based chemotherapy are unknown. Camptothecin analogs, like topotecan and irinotecan, are approved chemotherapy in small cell lung cancer (SCLC). NEC is considered to have similar biological behavior to SCLC. The aim of this study was to analyze the efficacy of TLC388 (Lipotecan) Hydrochloride, which is a novel camptothecin analog, in pretreated metastatic NEC patients. Methods: This single-arm, 2-stage, phase 2 clinical trial was conducted at 4 community and academic centers in Taiwan. Patients aged 20 years or older enrolled between July 2015 to May 2018 had confirmed metastatic NEC with prior systemic therapy with etoposide plus cisplatin. Patients received intravenous 40 mg/m2 of TLC388 on Days 1, 8 and 15 of a 28-day cycle until disease progression or unacceptable toxic effects. Results: twenty-three patients with a median age of 61 (range, 44-73) years, including 18 men (78%), were enrolled. Patients received a median of 2 (range, 0-6) treatment cycles. Among 20 evaluable patients, three patients showed a stable disease and no patient a complete or partial remission, resulting in a disease control rate of 15%. Median PFS was 1.8 (95% CI, 0.4-15) months and median OS was 4.3 (95% CI, 1.7-15) months. The most common treatment-related hematologic adverse events at grade 3 or higher were leukopenia (22.7%), anemia (31.8%), and thrombocytopenia (18.2%), respectively. Conclusions: TLC388 shows modest antitumor activity in metastatic NEC. Clinical trial information: NCT02457273.

The clinical impact of the novel tumor marker DR-70 in unresectable gastric cancer patients

BACKGROUND

Gastric cancer tumor markers, such as carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and cancer antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9), have been applied in clinical practice to screen or monitor treatment responses. However, their sensitivity and specificity are unsatisfactory. Therefore, we assessed the novel tumor marker DR-70 and evaluated its performance in screening and response monitoring.

METHODS

The study included newly diagnosed patients with advanced gastric cancer from March 2012 to October 2015. We measured the DR-70, CEA, and CA 19-9 levels at the time of enrollment. The patients subsequently underwent chemotherapy. We followed-up the patients every 3 months; DR-70 levels and abdominal computed tomography scans were re-evaluated and repeated, respectively, at each follow-up. The correlation between treatment response and DR-70 level after chemotherapy was analyzed. The overall survival and progression-free survival rates were also evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 51 patients with gastric cancer were enrolled. Most (82.4%) had metastatic disease. At enrollment, the sensitivity of DR-70 in our study group was 78.4%, compared with 52.9% and 43.1% for CEA and CA 19-9, respectively. When we used the three tumor markers together, the sensitivity increased to 80.4%. We observed a correlation between treatment response and DR-70 level after chemotherapy. No difference in either overall survival or progression-free survival was observed between the DR-70 positive and negative groups. However, a trend toward poorer overall survival was observed for the high DR-70 group, although this was not statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

DR-70 is a powerful tool not only for screening unresectable gastric cancer but also for treatment response evaluation.

Use of a Bayesian approach in the design and evaluation of NCE2s

Taiwan’s regulatory agency defines New Chemical Entity 2 (NCE2) as a compound drug that has been approved and marketed for ten years in a top-ten pharmaceutically-advanced country but which is new in Taiwan. To apply for registration of NCE2 in Taiwan, a clinical trial may be conducted in Taiwan to evaluate the efficacy and safety. Since the NCE2 has been approved in at least one of the top-ten pharmaceutically-advanced countries, we can borrow the information from all of the observed data from other countries to synthesize the data from both Taiwan and other countries to assess the NCE2 efficacy. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach that uses a mixture of prior information to help evaluate an NCE2’s efficacy. Numerical examples illustrate applications of the proposed approach in different scenarios. A method for sample-size determination for such trials is also proposed.

Use of interval estimations in design and evaluation of multiregional clinical trials with continuous outcomes

Multiregional clinical trials have been accepted in recent years as a useful means of accelerating the development of new drugs and abridging their approval time. The statistical properties of multiregional clinical trials are being widely discussed. In practice, variance of a continuous response may be different from region to region, but it leads to the assessment of the efficacy response falling into a Behrens–Fisher problem—there is no exact testing or interval estimator for mean difference with unequal variances. As a solution, this study applies interval estimations of the efficacy response based on Howe’s, Cochran–Cox’s, and Satterthwaite’s approximations, which have been shown to have well-controlled type I error rates. However, the traditional sample size determination cannot be applied to the interval estimators. The sample size determination to achieve a desired power based on these interval estimators is then presented. Moreover, the consistency criteria suggested by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare guidance to decide whether the overall results from the multiregional clinical trial obtained via the proposed interval estimation were also applied. A real example is used to illustrate the proposed method. The results of simulation studies indicate that the proposed method can correctly determine the required sample size and evaluate the assurance probability of the consistency criteria.

Prediction of plasma efavirenz concentrations among HIV-positive patients taking efavirenz-containing combination antiretroviral therapy

We investigated the predictors of plasma mid-dose concentrations (C12) of efavirenz by enrolling 456 HIV-positive patients who had received 2 nucleos(t)ide reverse-transcriptase inhibitors plus efavirenz (600 mg daily) for 2 weeks or longer and had their CYP2B6 516G>T polymorphism and efavirenz C12 determined. The median efavirenz C12 was 2.41 mg/L (IQR, 1.93–3.14). In analysis of covariance models, patients with CYP2B6 516GT and TT genotypes compared to those with GG genotype had higher efavirenz C12 (for GT genotype, an increase by 0.976 mg/L [95%CI, 0.765–1.188], and TT genotype, 4.871 mg/L [95%CI, 4.126–5.616]), while per 10-kg increment in weight decreased C12 by 0.199 mg/L (95%CI, 0.111–0.287). Models incorporating CYP2B6 516G>T polymorphism and weight had moderate predictive values in predicting efavirenz C12 ≥ 2 mg/L (ROC area under curve = 0.706 [95%CI, 0.656–0.756]). In the absence of CYP2B6 516G>T polymorphism, weight ≤58 kg provided better predictabilities for efavirenz C12 ≥ 2 mg/L (probability, 77.1% [95%CI, 69.0–83.5%] for weight = 50 kg and 70.6% [95%CI, 64.1–76.4%] for weight = 58 kg).

Intake of potassium- and magnesium-enriched salt improves functional outcome after stroke: a randomized, multicenter, double-blind controlled trial

Background: Stroke is one of the leading causes of mortality and neurologic deficits. Management measures to improve neurologic outcomes are in great need. Our previous intervention trial in elderly subjects successfully used salt as a carrier for potassium, demonstrating a 41% reduction in cardiovascular mortality by switching to potassium-enriched salt. Dietary magnesium has been associated with lowered diabetes and/or stroke risk in humans and with neuroprotection in animals.Objective: Because a large proportion of Taiwanese individuals are in marginal deficiency states for potassium and for magnesium and salt is a good carrier for minerals, it is justifiable to study whether further enriching salt with magnesium at an amount near the Dietary Reference Intake (DRI) amount may provide additional benefit for stroke recovery.Design: This was a double-blind, randomized controlled trial comprising 291 discharged stroke patients with modified Rankin scale (mRS) ≤4. There were 3 arms: 1) regular salt (Na salt) (n = 99), 2) potassium-enriched salt (K salt) (n = 97), and 3) potassium- and magnesium-enriched salt (K/Mg salt) (n = 95). The NIH Stroke Scale (NIHSS), Barthel Index (BI), and mRS were evaluated at discharge, at 3 mo, and at 6 mo. A good neurologic performance was defined by NIHSS = 0, BI = 100, and mRS ≤1.Results: After the 6-mo intervention, the proportion of patients with good neurologic performance increased in a greater magnitude in the K/Mg salt group than in the K salt group and the Na salt group, in that order. The K/Mg salt group had a significantly increased OR (2.25; 95% CI: 1.09, 4.67) of achieving good neurologic performance compared with the Na salt group. But the effect of K salt alone (OR: 1.58; 95% CI: 0.77, 3.22) was not significant.Conclusions: This study suggests that providing the DRI amount of magnesium and potassium together long term is beneficial for stroke patient recovery from neurologic deficits. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT02910427.

Genetic Modifiers of Progression-Free Survival in Never-Smoking Lung Adenocarcinoma Patients Treated with First-Line Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors

RATIONALE

Patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with mutated epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) are relatively sensitive to EGFR-tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) treatment and have longer progression-free survival (PFS) when treated with EGFR-TKI compared with platinum-based chemotherapy. However, many patients with advanced NSCLC who have mutated EGFR do not respond to first-line EGFR-TKI treatment and still have shorter PFS.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to identify genetic variants associated with PFS among patients with lung adenocarcinoma who were treated with first-line EGFR-TKIs.

METHODS

A genome-wide association study on PFS was performed in never-smoking women diagnosed with lung adenocarcinoma and who were treated with first-line EGFR-TKIs (n = 128). Significant single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were selected for follow-up association analysis (n = 198) and for replication assay in another independent cohort (n = 153).

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

We identified SNPs at 4q12 associated with PFS at genome-wide significance (P < 10^-8) and with an estimated hazard ratio of more than 4. This association was also replicated in a larger but similar cohort and in an independent NSCLC cohort. Follow-up functional analyses showed that these SNPs were associated with the expression of EGFR, which encodes the TKI target, and with a nearby gene neuromedin-U, which encodes a G protein-coupled receptor ligand known to be involved in the progression of NSCLC. Considering these as possible prognostic biomarkers for the treatment of patients with late-stage lung cancer, we found that these SNPs were not associated with EGFR mutation status or with polymorphism of the Bcl2-interacting mediator of cell death gene.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic variants in 4q12 merit further investigation to assess their potential as pharmacogenomic predictors for and to understand the biology underlying its influence on PFS in patients treated with TKI therapy.

Sample size determination for a specific region in multiregional clinical trials with multiple co-primary endpoints

Recently, multi-regional clinical trials (MRCTs), which incorporate subjects from many countries/regions around the world under the same protocol, have been widely conducted by many global pharmaceutical companies. The objective of such trials is to accelerate the development process for a drug and shorten the drug's approval time in key markets. Several statistical methods have been purposed for the design and evaluation of MRCTs, as well as for assessing the consistency of treatment effects across all regions with one primary endpoint. However, in some therapeutic areas (e.g., Alzheimer's disease), the clinical efficacy of a new treatment may be characterized by a set of possibly correlated endpoints, known as multiple co-primary endpoints. In this paper, we focus on a specific region and establish three statistical criteria for evaluating consistency between the specific region and overall results in MRCTs with multiple co-primary endpoints. More specifically, two of those criteria are used to assess whether the treatment effect in the region of interest is as large as that of the other regions or of the regions overall, while the other criterion is used to assess the consistency of the treatment effect of the specific region achieving a pre-specified threshold. The sample size required for the region of interest can also be evaluated based on these three criteria.

An approach for sample size determination of average bioequivalence based on interval estimation

In 1992, the US Food and Drug Administration declared that two drugs demonstrate average bioequivalence (ABE) if the log-transformed mean difference of pharmacokinetic responses lies in (-0.223, 0.223). The most widely used approach for assessing ABE is the two one-sided tests procedure. More specifically, ABE is concluded when a 100(1 - 2α) % confidence interval for mean difference falls within (-0.223, 0.223). As known, bioequivalent studies are usually conducted by crossover design. However, in the case that the half-life of a drug is long, a parallel design for the bioequivalent study may be preferred. In this study, a two-sided interval estimation - such as Satterthwaite's, Cochran-Cox's, or Howe's approximations - is used for assessing parallel ABE. We show that the asymptotic joint distribution of the lower and upper confidence limits is bivariate normal, and thus the sample size can be calculated based on the asymptotic power so that the confidence interval falls within (-0.223, 0.223). Simulation studies also show that the proposed method achieves sufficient empirical power. A real example is provided to illustrate the proposed method. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Integrated care for geriatric frailty and sarcopenia: a randomized control trial

BACKGROUND

Exercise, nutrition, and psychological interventions may all have positive impacts on frailty and sarcopenia. However, it is not known whether an integrated care programme with all three components can be beneficial and the intensity of such programme is also not certain. In this study, we aim to determine the effectiveness of two levels of integrated care on frailty and sarcopenia.

METHODS

A randomized control trial was conducted at two community hospitals in Taiwan. Older adults (65-79 years of age, N = 289) who scored ≥1 on the Cardiovascular Health Study Phenotypic Classification of Frailty (CHS_PCF) were enrolled in the trial. Low-level care (LLC) participants received a 2 h education course on frailty, sarcopenia, coping strategy, nutrition, and demonstration of study exercise programme. Educational multimedia material was distributed as reference for home practice with bi-monthly telephone follow-ups on adherences. High-level care (HLC) participants, in addition to LLC instructions, received six sessions of on-site problem solving therapy and 48 exercise sessions within 6 months. Brief nutrition consultation was also provided during the exercise sessions. Primary outcome was improvement of the CHS_PCF by at least one category (from pre-frail to robust, or from frail to pre-frail or robust) from baseline. Secondary outcomes included changes of individual frailty, and sarcopenia indicators. Assessments were done at 3, 6, and 12 months by trained research assistants blinded to randomization status. Intention-to-treat analysis was applied.

RESULTS

Mean age was 71.6 ± 4.3 years, with 53% females. For the entire cohort, improvement of primary outcome was 35% at 3 months, increased to 40% at 6 months, and remained stable at 39% at 12 months. Improvement rates were similar in both groups. Compared with the LLC group, HLC participants had greater improvements in the following indices: energy expenditure of walking, 5 m walking time, dominant hand grip strength, timed-up-and-go-test, and one-leg-stand time - mainly at 6 and 12 month assessments.

CONCLUSIONS

The 6 month integrated care improved frailty and sarcopenia status among community-dwelling elders, with high-intensity training yielding greater improvements. Low-level care could be promoted as a basic intervention, while HLC could be reserved for those at high risk and with high motivation.

Association between GWAS-identified lung adenocarcinoma susceptibility loci and EGFR mutations in never-smoking Asian women, and comparison with findings from Western populations

To evaluate associations by EGFR mutation status for lung adenocarcinoma risk among never-smoking Asian women, we conducted a meta-analysis of 11 loci previously identified in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Genotyping in an additional 10,780 never-smoking cases and 10,938 never-smoking controls from Asia confirmed associations with eight known single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Two new signals were observed at genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8), namely, rs7216064 (17q24.3, BPTF), for overall lung adenocarcinoma risk, and rs3817963 (6p21.3, BTNL2) which is specific to cases with EGFR mutations. In further sub-analyses by EGFR status, rs9387478 (ROS1/DCBLD1) and rs2179920 (HLA-DPB1) showed stronger estimated associations in EGFR-positive compared to EGFR-negative cases. Comparison of the overall associations with published results in Western populations revealed that the majority of these findings were distinct, underscoring the importance of distinct contributing factors for smoking and non-smoking lung cancer. Our results extend the catalogue of regions associated with lung adenocarcinoma in non-smoking Asian women and highlight the importance of how the germline could inform risk for specific tumour mutation patterns, which could have important translational implications.

Tunable nanoblock lasers and stretching sensors

Reconfigurable, reliable, and robust nanolasers with wavelengths tunable in the telecommunication bands are currently being sought after for use as flexible light sources in photonic integrated circuits. Here, we propose and demonstrate tunable nanolasers based on 1D nanoblocks embedded within stretchable polydimethylsiloxane. Our lasers show a large wavelength tunability of 7.65 nm per 1% elongation. Moreover, this tunability is reconfigurable and reliable under repeated stretching/relaxation tests. By applying excessive stretching, wide wavelength tuning over a range of 80 nm (spanning the S, C, and L telecommunication bands) is successfully demonstrated. Furthermore, as a stretching sensor, an enhanced wavelength response to elongation of 9.9 nm per % is obtained via the signal differential from two nanoblock lasers positioned perpendicular to each other. The minimum detectable elongation is as small as 0.056%. Nanoblock lasers can function as reliable tunable light sources in telecommunications and highly sensitive on-chip structural deformation sensors.

Prevalence of Toxoplasma gondii infection and incidence of toxoplasma encephalitis in non-haemophiliac HIV-1-infected adults in Taiwan

We assessed the seroprevalence of Toxoplasma gondii infection and incidence of toxoplasma encephalitis (TE) in 844 non-haemophiliac HIV-infected patients in Taiwan between June 1994 and April 2003. Approximately 70% (69.3%) of them had a baseline CD4+ lymphocyte count of 200 × 106/L or less, and more than 70% (73.9%) having initiated highly active antiretroviral therapy. The seroprevalence of T. gondii infection was 10.2%, which did not differ with sex, age, route of transmission, birth inside or outside of Taiwan, or CD4+ lymphocyte stratifications. After a median observation duration of 603 days (range, 1–3264 days), 10 (1.2%) patients developed 11 episodes of TE after a median interval of 30 days (range, 1–941 days) between enrolment and diagnosis of TE, with an incidence of 0.59 per 100 person-years (PY) (95% confidence interval, 0.56–0.63 per 100 PY). We concluded that the incidence of TE of HIV-infected patients in Taiwan was lower than that reported in western countries because of a lower seroprevalence of T. gondii infection and use of antimicrobial prophylaxis and antiretroviral therapy, although most of the patients were at the late stage of HIV infection.

Differences in health-related quality of life between European and Asian patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

AIM

The aim of this study is to explore the possible effects of clinical and cultural characteristics of hepatocellular carcinoma on patients' health-related quality of life (HRQoL).

METHODS

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma from Asian and European countries completed the EORTC QLQ-C30 and the EORTC QLQ-HCC18. Comparisons were made using Student's t-test and Wilcoxon rank-sum test with method of false discovery to correct multiple comparisons. Multiway analysis of variance and model selection were used to assess the effects of clinical characteristics and geographic areas.

RESULTS

Two hundred and twenty-seven patients with hepatocellular carcinoma completed questionnaires. After adjusting for demographic and clinical characteristics, Asian patients still had significantly better HRQoL scores in emotional functioning, insomnia, (QLQ-C30) and in sexual interest (QLQ-HCC18). We also found an interaction in physical functioning (QLQ-C30) and fatigue (QLQ-HCC18) between geographic region and marital status, married European had worse HRQoL scores than Asian singles.

CONCLUSIONS

Both clinical characteristics and geographic areas affected the HRQoL in with hepatocellular carcinoma. Cultural differences and clinical differences in the pattern of disease due to active surveillance of Asian countries may explain the results.

Meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies identifies multiple lung cancer susceptibility loci in never-smoking Asian women

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of lung cancer in Asian never-smoking women have previously identified six susceptibility loci associated with lung cancer risk. To further discover new susceptibility loci, we imputed data from four GWAS of Asian non-smoking female lung cancer (6877 cases and 6277 controls) using the 1000 Genomes Project (Phase 1 Release 3) data as the reference and genotyped additional samples (5878 cases and 7046 controls) for possible replication. In our meta-analysis, three new loci achieved genome-wide significance, marked by single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs7741164 at 6p21.1 (per-allele odds ratio (OR) = 1.17; P = 5.8 × 10(-13)), rs72658409 at 9p21.3 (per-allele OR = 0.77; P = 1.41 × 10(-10)) and rs11610143 at 12q13.13 (per-allele OR = 0.89; P = 4.96 × 10(-9)). These findings identified new genetic susceptibility alleles for lung cancer in never-smoking women in Asia and merit follow-up to understand their biological underpinnings.

A Phase II Study of Sequential Capecitabine Plus Oxaliplatin Followed by Docetaxel Plus Capecitabine in Patients With Unresectable Gastric Adenocarcinoma: The TCOG 3211 Clinical Trial

Fluorouracil and platinum are considered the standard treatment options for advanced gastric cancer. Docetaxel is also an effective agent and it shows no cross-resistance with fluorouracil and platinum. The combination treatment of docetaxel with fluorouracil and platinum has been explored, but it demonstrated intolerable toxicities. An alternative approach in the first-line treatment of gastric adenocarcinoma may be to use these agents sequentially. We aimed to evaluate the activity and safety profile of sequential chemotherapy with capecitabine plus oxaliplatin, followed by docetaxel plus capecitabine in the first-line treatment of unresectable gastric cancer.We conducted a phase II study of sequential first-line chemotherapy in advanced gastric cancer. Treatment consisted of 6 cycles of capecitabine plus oxaliplatin (capecitabine 1000 mg/m bid on days 1-10 and oxaliplatin 85 mg/m on day 1, every 2 weeks), followed by 4 cycles of docetaxel plus capecitabine (docetaxel 30 mg/m on days 1 and 8, capecitabine 825 mg/m bid on days 1-14, every 3 weeks). The primary end-point was the objective response rate.Fifty-one patients were enrolled: median age, 63 years; male/female: 37/14. The main grade 3 to 4 toxicities were a decreased absolute neutrophil count (25.4%), diarrhea (9.8%), and hand-foot syndrome (15.7%). The objective response rate was 61.7%. The median progression-free survival and overall survival were 8.6 and 11.0 months, respectively. Six patients (11.8%) received surgery after chemotherapy and 5 are still disease-free.This sequential treatment demonstrated feasibility with a favorable safety profile and produced encouraging results in terms of activity and efficacy.

Analysis of Heritability and Shared Heritability Based on Genome-Wide Association Studies for Thirteen Cancer Types

BACKGROUND

Studies of related individuals have consistently demonstrated notable familial aggregation of cancer. We aim to estimate the heritability and genetic correlation attributable to the additive effects of common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for cancer at 13 anatomical sites.

METHODS

Between 2007 and 2014, the US National Cancer Institute has generated data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for 49 492 cancer case patients and 34 131 control patients. We apply novel mixed model methodology (GCTA) to this GWAS data to estimate the heritability of individual cancers, as well as the proportion of heritability attributable to cigarette smoking in smoking-related cancers, and the genetic correlation between pairs of cancers.

RESULTS

GWAS heritability was statistically significant at nearly all sites, with the estimates of array-based heritability, hl (2), on the liability threshold (LT) scale ranging from 0.05 to 0.38. Estimating the combined heritability of multiple smoking characteristics, we calculate that at least 24% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 14% to 37%) and 7% (95% CI = 4% to 11%) of the heritability for lung and bladder cancer, respectively, can be attributed to genetic determinants of smoking. Most pairs of cancers studied did not show evidence of strong genetic correlation. We found only four pairs of cancers with marginally statistically significant correlations, specifically kidney and testes (ρ = 0.73, SE = 0.28), diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) and pediatric osteosarcoma (ρ = 0.53, SE = 0.21), DLBCL and chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) (ρ = 0.51, SE =0.18), and bladder and lung (ρ = 0.35, SE = 0.14). Correlation analysis also indicates that the genetic architecture of lung cancer differs between a smoking population of European ancestry and a nonsmoking Asian population, allowing for the possibility that the genetic etiology for the same disease can vary by population and environmental exposures.

CONCLUSION

Our results provide important insights into the genetic architecture of cancers and suggest new avenues for investigation.