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Warnes CM, Bustos Carrillo FA, Zambrana JV, Lopez Mercado B, Arguello S, Ampié O, Collado D, Sanchez N, Ojeda S, Kuan G, Gordon A, Balmaseda A, Harris E. Longitudinal analysis of post-acute chikungunya-associated arthralgia in children and adults: A prospective cohort study in Managua, Nicaragua (2014-2018). PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2024; 18:e0011948. [PMID: 38416797 PMCID: PMC10962812 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011948] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/12/2023] [Revised: 03/25/2024] [Accepted: 01/27/2024] [Indexed: 03/01/2024] Open
Abstract
Chikungunya can result in debilitating arthralgia, often presenting as acute, self-limited pain, but occasionally manifesting chronically. Little is known about differences in chikungunya-associated arthralgia comparing children to adults over time. To characterize long-term chikungunya-associated arthralgia, we recruited 770 patients (105 0-4 years old [y/o], 200 5-9 y/o, 307 10-15 y/o, and 158 16+ y/o) with symptomatic chikungunya virus infections in Managua, Nicaragua, during two consecutive chikungunya epidemics (2014-2015). Participants were assessed at ~15 days and 1, 3, 6, 12, and 18 months post-fever onset. Following clinical guidelines, we defined participants by their last reported instance of arthralgia as acute (≤10 days post-fever onset), interim (>10 and <90 days), or chronic (≥90 days) cases. We observed a high prevalence of arthralgia (80-95%) across all ages over the study period. Overall, the odds of acute arthralgia increased in an age-dependent manner, with the lowest odds of arthralgia in the 0-4 y/o group (odds ratio [OR]: 0.27, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.14-0.51) and the highest odds of arthralgia in the 16+ y/o participants (OR: 4.91, 95% CI: 1.42-30.95) relative to 10-15 y/o participants. Females had higher odds of acute arthralgia than males (OR: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.01-2.65) across all ages. We found that 23-36% of pediatric and 53% of adult participants reported an instance of post-acute arthralgia. Children exhibited the highest prevalence of post-acute polyarthralgia in their legs, followed by the hands and torso - a pattern not seen among adult participants. Further, we observed pediatric chikungunya presenting in two distinct phases: the acute phase and the subsequent interim/chronic phases. Thus, differences in the presentation of arthralgia were observed across age, sex, and disease phase in this longitudinal chikungunya cohort. Our results elucidate the long-term burden of chikungunya-associated arthralgia among pediatric and adult populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Colin M. Warnes
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, United States of America
| | - Fausto Andres Bustos Carrillo
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, United States of America
- Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, United States of America
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Nery Sanchez
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Sergio Ojeda
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Guillermina Kuan
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
- Centro de Salud Sócrates Flores Vivas, Ministerio de Salud, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Aubree Gordon
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, United States of America
| | - Angel Balmaseda
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
- Laboratorio Nacional de Virología, Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico y Referencia, Ministerio de Salud, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Eva Harris
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, United States of America
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Warnes CM, Carrillo FAB, Zambrana JV, Mercado BL, Arguello S, Ampié O, Collado D, Sanchez N, Ojeda S, Kuan G, Gordon A, Balmaseda A, Harris E. Longitudinal Analysis of the Burden of Post-Acute Chikungunya-Associated Arthralgia in Children and Adults: A Prospective Cohort Study in Managua, Nicaragua (2014-2019). medRxiv 2023:2023.05.09.23289726. [PMID: 37214808 PMCID: PMC10197786 DOI: 10.1101/2023.05.09.23289726] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
Chikungunya can result in debilitating arthralgia, often presenting as acute, self-limited pain, but occasionally manifesting chronically. Little is known about differences in chikungunya-associated arthralgia comparing children to adults over time. To characterize long-term chikungunya-associated arthralgia, we recruited 770 patients (105 0-4 year olds [y/o], 200 5-9 y/o, 307 10-15 y/o, and 158 16+ y/o) with symptomatic chikungunya virus infections in Managua, Nicaragua, during two chikungunya epidemics (2014-2015). Participants were assessed at ~15 days and 1, 3, 6, 12, and 18 months post-fever onset. Following clinical guidelines, we defined participants by their last reported instance of arthralgia as acute (≤10 days post-fever onset), interim (>10 and <90 days), or chronic (≥90 days) cases. We observed a high prevalence of arthralgia (80-95%) across all ages over the study period. Overall, the odds of acute arthralgia increased in an age-dependent manner, with the lowest odds of arthralgia in the 0-4 y/o group (odds ratio [OR]: 0.27, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.14-0.51) and the highest odds of arthralgia in the 16+ y/o participants (OR: 4.91, 95% CI: 1.42-30.95) relative to 10-15 y/o participants. Females had a higher odds of acute arthralgia than males (OR: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.01-2.65) across all ages. We found that 23-36% of pediatric and 53% of adult participants reported an instance of post-acute arthralgia. Children exhibited the highest prevalence of post-acute polyarthralgia in their legs, followed by the hands and torso - a pattern not seen among adult participants. Further, we observed pediatric chikungunya presenting in two distinct phases: the acute phase and the associated interim and chronic phases. Differences in the presentation of arthralgia were observed across age, sex, and disease phase in this longitudinal chikungunya cohort. Our results elucidate the long-term burden of chikungunya-associated arthralgia among pediatric and adult populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Colin M. Warnes
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Fausto Andres Bustos Carrillo
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA
- Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Nery Sanchez
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Sergio Ojeda
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Guillermina Kuan
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
- Centro de Salud Sócrates Flores Vivas, Ministerio de Salud, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Aubree Gordon
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, USA
| | - Angel Balmaseda
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
- Laboratorio Nacional de Virología, Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico y Referencia, Ministerio de Salud, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Eva Harris
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA
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Maier HE, Kuan G, Saborio S, Carrillo FAB, Plazaola M, Barilla C, Sanchez N, Lopez R, Smith M, Kubale J, Ojeda S, Zuniga-Moya JC, Carlson B, Lopez B, Gajewski AM, Chowdhury M, Harris E, Balmaseda A, Gordon A. Clinical Spectrum of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Infection and Protection From Symptomatic Reinfection. Clin Infect Dis 2022; 75:e257-e266. [PMID: 34411230 PMCID: PMC8499752 DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciab717] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/09/2021] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND There are few data on the full spectrum of disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection across the lifespan from community-based or nonclinical settings. METHODS We followed 2338 people in Managua, Nicaragua, aged <94 years from March 2020 through March 2021. SARS-CoV-2 infection was identified through real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) or through enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Disease presentation was assessed at the time of infection or retrospectively by survey at the time of blood collection. RESULTS There was a large epidemic that peaked between March and August 2020. In total, 129 RT-PCR-positive infections were detected, for an overall incidence rate of 5.3 infections per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.4-6.3). Seroprevalence was 56.7% (95% CI, 53.5%-60.1%) and was consistent from age 11 through adulthood but was lower in children aged ≤10 years. Overall, 31.0% of the infections were symptomatic, with 54.7% mild, 41.6% moderate, and 3.7% severe. There were 2 deaths that were likely due to SARS-CoV-2 infection, yielding an infection fatality rate of 0.2%. Antibody titers exhibited a J-shaped curve with respect to age, with the lowest titers observed among older children and young adults and the highest among older adults. When compared to SARS-CoV-2-seronegative individuals, SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity at the midyear sample was associated with 93.6% protection from symptomatic reinfection (95% CI, 51.1%-99.2%). CONCLUSIONS This population exhibited a very high SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity with lower-than-expected severity, and immunity from natural infection was protective against symptomatic reinfection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hannah E Maier
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
| | - Guillermina Kuan
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
- Centro de Salud Sócrates Flores Vivas, Ministry of Health, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Saira Saborio
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
- Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico y Referencia, Ministry of Health, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Fausto Andres Bustos Carrillo
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA
| | | | | | - Nery Sanchez
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Roger Lopez
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
- Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico y Referencia, Ministry of Health, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Matt Smith
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
| | - John Kubale
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
| | - Sergio Ojeda
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
- Centro de Salud Sócrates Flores Vivas, Ministry of Health, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Julio C Zuniga-Moya
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
| | - Bradley Carlson
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
| | - Brenda Lopez
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
| | | | - Mahboob Chowdhury
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
| | - Eva Harris
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Angel Balmaseda
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
- Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico y Referencia, Ministry of Health, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Aubree Gordon
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
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Zambrana JV, Bustos Carrillo FA, Ojeda S, Lopez Mercado B, Latta K, Schiller A, Kuan G, Gordon A, Reingold A, Harris E. Epidemiologic Features of Acute Pediatric Diarrhea in Managua, Nicaragua, from 2011 to 2019. Am J Trop Med Hyg 2022; 106:1757-1764. [PMID: 35895434 PMCID: PMC9209918 DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.21-0793] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/14/2021] [Accepted: 02/18/2022] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Diarrhea remains a leading cause of death in children in developing countries, including Nicaragua, but little is known about patterns of diarrhea occurrence in Central America over long periods of time. The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence, risk factors, long-term trends, and seasonality of diarrhea in children age 2 to 14 years in Managua, Nicaragua. From 2011 to 2019, we examined episodes of diarrhea among 6,485 children who participated in a prospective cohort study and presented for care in a primary care facility. We performed a longitudinal analysis considering time-varying variables and the intra-subject correlation of outcomes. In addition, we analyzed the weekly incidence of diarrhea, applying seasonal trend decomposition to extract secular and seasonal patterns. The overall incidence rate of diarrhea was 133.4 episodes per 1,000 person-years (95% CI, 128.3–138.7). We observed a slight increase in the incidence of diarrhea from 2011 to 2019. Younger age was the strongest predictor of the risk of diarrhea, and incidence increased with every additional hour without running water in the household per day. Diarrhea incidence in Managua was seasonal, with high peaks each year between May and July. Despite reductions in childhood mortality since 1990 in Nicaragua, diarrheal morbidity remains a major problem in Managua.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Fausto Andres Bustos Carrillo
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California
- Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California
| | - Sergio Ojeda
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
| | | | - Krista Latta
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan
| | - Amy Schiller
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan
| | - Guillermina Kuan
- Centro de Salud Sócrates Flores Vivas, Ministry of Health, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Aubree Gordon
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan
| | - Arthur Reingold
- Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California
| | - Eva Harris
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California
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Bustos Carrillo FA, Mercado BL, Monterrey JC, Collado D, Saborio S, Miranda T, Barilla C, Ojeda S, Sanchez N, Plazaola M, Laguna HS, Elizondo D, Arguello S, Gajewski AM, Maier HE, Latta K, Carlson B, Coloma J, Katzelnick L, Sturrock H, Balmaseda A, Kuan G, Gordon A, Harris E. Epidemics of chikungunya, Zika, and COVID-19 reveal bias in case-based mapping. medRxiv 2022:2021.07.23.21261038. [PMID: 34341804 PMCID: PMC8328077 DOI: 10.1101/2021.07.23.21261038] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
Abstract
Accurate tracing of epidemic spread over space enables effective control measures. We examined three metrics of infection and disease in a pediatric cohort (N≈3,000) over two chikungunya and one Zika epidemic, and in a household cohort (N=1,793) over one COVID-19 epidemic in Managua, Nicaragua. We compared spatial incidence rates (cases/total population), infection risks (infections/total population), and disease risks (cases/infected population). We used generalized additive and mixed-effects models, Kulldorf's spatial scan statistic, and intracluster correlation coefficients. Across different analyses and all epidemics, incidence rates considerably underestimated infection and disease risks, producing large and spatially non-uniform biases distinct from biases due to incomplete case ascertainment. Infection and disease risks exhibited distinct spatial patterns, and incidence clusters inconsistently identified areas of either risk. While incidence rates are commonly used to infer infection and disease risk in a population, we find that this can induce substantial biases and adversely impact policies to control epidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Sergio Ojeda
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Nery Sanchez
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Krista Latta
- University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA
| | | | - Josefina Coloma
- University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Leah Katzelnick
- University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA
| | - Hugh Sturrock
- University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA
- Locational, Poole, UK
| | - Angel Balmaseda
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
- Ministry of Health, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Guillermina Kuan
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
- Ministry of Health, Managua, Nicaragua
| | | | - Eva Harris
- University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, USA
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Wraith S, Balmaseda A, Carrillo FAB, Kuan G, Huddleston J, Kubale J, Lopez R, Ojeda S, Schiller A, Lopez B, Sanchez N, Webby R, Nelson MI, Harris E, Gordon A. Homotypic protection against influenza in a pediatric cohort in Managua, Nicaragua. Nat Commun 2022; 13:1190. [PMID: 35246548 PMCID: PMC8897407 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28858-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2021] [Accepted: 02/16/2022] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
The period of protection from repeat infection following symptomatic influenza is not well established due to limited availability of longitudinal data. Using data from a pediatric cohort in Managua, Nicaragua, we examine the effects of natural influenza virus infection on subsequent infection with the same influenza virus subtype/lineage across multiple seasons, totaling 2,170 RT-PCR-confirmed symptomatic influenza infections. Logistic regression models assessed whether infection in the prior influenza season protected against homologous reinfection. We sequenced viruses from 2011-2019 identifying dominant clades and measuring antigenic distances between hemagglutinin clades. We observe homotypic protection from repeat infection in children infected with influenza A/H1N1pdm (OR 0.12, CI 0.02-0.88), A/H3N2 (OR 0.41, CI 0.24-0.73), and B/Victoria (OR 0.00, CI 0.00-0.14), but not with B/Yamagata viruses (OR 0.60, CI 0.09-2.10). Overall, protection wanes as time or antigenic distance increases. Individuals infected with one subtype or lineage of influenza virus have significantly lower odds of homologous reinfection for the following one to two years; after two years this protection wanes. This protection is demonstrated across multiple seasons, subtypes, and lineages among children.
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Affiliation(s)
- Steph Wraith
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Angel Balmaseda
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
- Laboratorio Nacional de Virología, Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico y Referencia, Ministry of Health, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Fausto Andres Bustos Carrillo
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - Guillermina Kuan
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
- Centro de Salud Sócrates Flores Vivas, Ministry of Health, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - John Huddleston
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - John Kubale
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Roger Lopez
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
- Laboratorio Nacional de Virología, Centro Nacional de Diagnóstico y Referencia, Ministry of Health, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Sergio Ojeda
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Amy Schiller
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Brenda Lopez
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Nery Sanchez
- Sustainable Sciences Institute, Managua, Nicaragua
| | - Richard Webby
- St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, TN, USA
| | | | - Eva Harris
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinology, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
| | - Aubree Gordon
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
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