How important is it to avoid indices of deprivation that include health variables in analyses of health inequalities?

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to quantify the difference in mortality inequalities using the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) and the Income and Employment Index (IEI; a subindex of SIMD, which excludes health) as ranking measures in Scotland.

STUDY DESIGN

This ecological study was a cross-sectional analysis of routine administrative data.

METHODS

Data from the 2020 SIMD and the subindex using data from only the Income and Employment domains, the IEI, were obtained. The correlation between data zones, percentage of data zones that changed deprivation tenth and differences in the Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and Relative Index of Inequality (RII) for Standardised Mortality Ratios (SMRs) across tenths were compared when data zones were ranked by SIMD and IEI.

RESULTS

There was a close correlation between data zones ranked by SIMD and IEI (R² = 0.96). When data zones were ranked by IEI, 18.7% of data zones moved to a lower deprivation tenth, and 20.8% of data zones moved to a higher deprivation tenth, compared with SIMD. However, only a negligible number of data zones moved two or more tenths. The SMRs across deprivation tenths were very similar between the SIMD and IEI, as were the summary health inequality measures of SII (87.3 compared with 85.7) and RII (0.88 and 0.86).

CONCLUSION

Although there is a logical problem in using deprivation indices that include health outcomes to rank areas to calculate the scale of health inequalities, the impact of using an alternative subindex containing only data from the income and employment domains is minimal. For population-wide analyses of health inequalities in Scotland, the SIMD does not introduce a substantial bias in the health inequalities summary measures despite substantial movement of small areas between ranked population tenths. Although not examined here, this is likely to be relevant to other similar indices across the United Kingdom.

How well do area-based deprivation indices identify income- and employment-deprived individuals across Great Britain today?

BACKGROUND

Area-based deprivation indices are used in many countries to target interventions and policies to populations with the greatest needs. Analyses of the Carstairs deprivation index applied to postcode sectors in 2001 identified that less than half of all deprived individuals lived in the most deprived areas.

OBJECTIVE

This article examines the specificity and sensitivity of deprivation indices across Great Britain in identifying individuals claiming income- and employment-related social security benefits.

STUDY DESIGN

This was a descriptive analysis of cross-sectional administrative data.

METHODS

The data sets for the 2020 Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation, Scottish Income and Employment Index, the 2019 English Index of Multiple Deprivation and the 2019 Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation were obtained. For each data set, small areas were ranked by increasing overall deprivation, and the cumulative proportions of individuals who were income and employment deprived were calculated. Receiver operating characteristic curves were plotted to show the sensitivity and specificity of each index, and the percentages of income- and employment-deprived individuals captured at different overall deprivation thresholds were calculated.

RESULTS

Across all indices, the sensitivity and specificity for detecting income- and employment-deprived individuals were low, with less than half living in the most deprived 20% of areas. Between 55% and 62% of income-deprived people and between 56% and 63% of employment-deprived people were missed across the indices at the 20% deprivation threshold. The sensitivity and specificity were slightly higher for income deprivation than employment deprivation across indices and slightly higher for the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation and Scottish Income and Employment Index than for the English Index of Multiple Deprivation and Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation.

CONCLUSION

Area-based deprivation measures in Great Britain have limited sensitivity and specificity for identifying individuals who are income or employment deprived. Place-based policies and interventions are unlikely to be effective at reducing inequalities as a result. Creation of individually linked data sets and interventions that recognise the social and economic relationships between social groups are likely to be more effective.

How well does the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation identify income and employment deprived individuals across the urban-rural spectrum and between local authorities?

BACKGROUND

Area-based indices of deprivation are used to identify populations at need, to inform service planning and policy, to rank populations for monitoring trends in inequalities, and to evaluate the impacts of interventions. There is scepticism of the utility of area deprivation indices in rural areas because of the spatial heterogeneity of their populations.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the sensitivity of the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) for detecting income and employment deprived individuals by urban-rural classification and across local authorities.

STUDY DESIGN

Descriptive analysis of cross-sectional data.

METHODS

Data from the 2020 Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) were used to calculate the number and percentage of income and employment deprived people missed within each of the six-fold urban-rural classification strata and each local authority using areas ranked by the national SIMD, within local authority rankings, and within urban-rural strata rankings, for deprivation thresholds between the 5% most deprived areas and the 30% most deprived areas. The Slope Index of Inequality (SII) and Relative Index of Inequality (RII) were calculated within local authorities and urban-rural classification strata to estimate the concentration of deprivation within ranked data zones.

RESULTS

The number and percentage of income and employment deprived people is higher in urban than rural areas. However, using the national, local authority, and within urban-rural classification strata rankings of SIMD, and under all deprivation thresholds (from the 5%-30% most deprived areas), the percentage of income and employment deprived people missed by targeting the most deprived areas within urban-rural strata is higher in more remote and rural areas, and in island local authorities. The absolute number of income and employment deprived individuals is greater in urban areas across rankings and thresholds.

CONCLUSION

The SIMD misses a higher percentage of income and employment deprived people in remote, rural and island areas across deprivation thresholds and irrespective of whether national, local or within urban-rural classification strata are used. However, the absolute number of people missed is higher in urban areas.

Redistribution of ill-defined deaths: the Scottish Burden of Disease approach

Burden of disease (BoD) studies are an established method of quantifying health loss across - and within - a population. They aim to combine the impact of living with, and dying from, various health conditions to allow for comparability of conditions in an equitable manner. A key component of this is the calculation of the loss of years of life arising from premature death (Years of Life Lost (YLL)). Most high-income nations have robust death registration systems which ensure that deaths are routinely recorded, the causes are medically certified and the age at death is accurate. However, even in these situations the recording of ill-defined death (IDD) causes remains widespread and to some extent unavoidable, in that it is not always appropriate to undertake extensive investigation to establish an exact cause of death or the cause of death recorded does not map directly to disease groupings used routinely in BoD studies. The Scottish Burden of Disease (SBoD) uses cause of death data from the National Records of Scotland. These patient-level records include one underlying cause of death and up to 10 supplementary causes of death, all coded using ICD classifications. Around 12% of these deaths do not map directly to a BoD cause group and could therefore be considered ill-defined. The SBoD study have developed a 9-step hierarchical methodology for the redistribution of ill-defined deaths, utilising uses a mix of fixed and proportional redistribution and focusses on exploiting the data recorded on the death certificate at both an individual and population level. In this presentation we will describe the methodology used to redistribute ill-defined deaths in the Scottish study - the development, the application and the strengths and weaknesses of our approach. We will also discuss the example of COVID-19 and how competition between the underlying cause of death is likely to impact how we need to approach IDDs in the future.

Inequalities in the disease burden in Scotland: an area level analysis

In the context of increasing demand for evidence-based policy, attempts to address or mitigate the effects of disadvantage have been usefully informed by comprehensive indices of multiple deprivation. These indices combine indicators on a range of dimensions of deprivation to classify neighborhoods or localities. Through combining information on fatal and non-fatal health loss, burden of disease studies allow planners and policy-makers to have a better understanding of the contribution of different diseases and injuries to the total burden of disease. These estimates can be augmented through studies, stratified by investigating inequalities in the burden of disease due to area-based deprivation. Doing so, helps contribute to discussions about where prevention and service activity should be focused to address health inequalities. The Scottish Burden of Disease study uses the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) as means to report on of the extent of inequality in the burden of disease in Scotland between people living in the areas of greatest, and of least, multiple deprivation. The SIMD quantifies deprivation based on data zones, a geographical unit comparable to a postcode. Using pooled and weighted data from seven domains (employment, income, crime, housing, health, education and geographic access), each data zone is given a composite rank out of 6,505 data zones. The composite rank was then converted to a decile, with 1 assigned to the 10% most deprived data zones and 10 to the 10% least deprived. In this presentation we will show the key steps involved in undertaking an area-based analysis of health inequalities in the burden of disease in Scotland using results from the Scottish Burden of Disease 2019 study, and from our monitoring of COVID-19 disability-adjusted life years.

Quantifying the burden of disease in Scotland in 2018: a Scottish Burden of Disease study

Background

The Scottish Burden of Disease (SBoD) Study monitors the contribution of over 100 diseases and injuries to the population health in Scotland. Providing robust estimates of the burden is important as recent evidence has highlighted stalling life expectancy and worsening trends in self-assessed general health and understanding the burden of disease is the first step in identifying areas of prevention which could have the biggest impact on health. Our aim was to estimate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 2018, for all causes of disease and injury.

Methods

The SBoD 2016 study estimated the burden for 132 causes of injury and disease using routine data and patient-level record linkage. For this update, years lived with disability were estimated using 2016 age-sex-deprivation specific rates, assuming no change in disease prevalence from 2016, but taking account of changes to the population structure. Years of life lost were calculated from 2018 observed deaths and the application of the Global Burden of Disease aspirational life table.

Results

In 2018 the leading causes of burden were ischaemic heart disease, Alzheimer's/other dementias, lung cancer, drug-use disorders and cerebrovascular disease, representing over a quarter (27%) of the total DALYs in Scotland. Of the 10 leading causes of disease burden, four are wholly attributable to ill-health, demonstrating the added-value of considering DALYs in conjunction with traditional measures of mortality and morbidity.

Conclusions

Ischaemic heart disease continues to be the leading cause of burden of disease in Scotland, however recent years show an increase in burden of social causes and diseases primarily affecting the ageing population. These changes in leading causes demonstrate the importance of continuing to monitor the burden of disease in Scotland, to provide robust evidence for planning of local and national services.

Key messages

The study demonstrates the added-value of considering the burden of disease, in conjunction with traditional measures of morbidity and mortality. Ischaemic heart disease continues to be the leading cause of burden of disease in Scotland.

Scottish Burden of Disease (SBOD) study: a population health surveillance system for meaningful action

In 2012, planning began to launch the Scottish Burden of Disease (SBOD) study. The aim was to create a population health surveillance system to assess the impact of over 100 causes of disease and injury, and risks, measured by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The study has become a mainstay over the last five years as a tool to aid strategic and proportionate decision-making. In 2017, its scope expanded to highlight the extent of inequalities in DALYs by socioeconomic status. Additionally, it now provides comprehensive estimates for 14 regional Health Boards, which are responsible for protecting and improving the health of their local populations. It also provides estimates for 32 local government regions, which provide services related to the broader determinants of health, such as: education, social care and housing. To help turn findings from the SBOD study into action, push, pull and integrated efforts are used. Push efforts involve working together with publishing and communications leads to share key findings. These are commonly in the form of plain English and academic reports, summary briefings, social media messages and infographics. Key messages are also shared through television, radio and newsprint. Pull efforts have recently been improved to house estimates within interactive R Shiny dashboards, which contain user-friendly charts and easy to download data. Integrated approaches involve working with relevant national and local stakeholders, to help shape national and local priority setting. Findings from the study are being used by national and local government and health institutions. Third sector organisations are also key users of SBOD findings, particularly for health conditions that generate high-levels of ill-health, rather than mortality. In 2021, the study will publish an update, and increase capacity on integrated efforts to further embed the SBOD in national and local strategic planning.

Socioeconomic inequalities in COVID-19 DALYs in Scotland, 2020

Aim

Our aim was to estimate the overall, and inequalities in the, population health impact of COVID-19 in Scotland, measured by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2020.

Methods

National deaths and daily case data were input into the consensus model outlined by the European Burden of Disease Network, to estimate DALYs. Total Years of Life Lost (YLL) were estimated, and for each deprivation quintile of the Scottish population. Years Lived with Disability (2% of all DALYs) were proportionately distributed to deprivation quintiles, based on YLL estimates. Socioeconomic inequalities were measured by the Relative Index of Inequality (RII), Slope Index of Inequality (SII), and attributable DALYs were estimated by using the least deprived quintile as a reference. Results were presented as a range, using a sensitivity based on YLL estimates using: cause-specific; and COVID-19 related deaths.

Results

COVID-19 DALYs ranged from 96,500 to 108,200 in 2020, representing the second leading cause of disease/injury in Scotland, in 2020. Marked socioeconomic inequalities were observed across several measures. The difference between the most and least deprived areas, measured by SII, was 2,048 to 2,289 DALYs per 100,000. The RII was 1.16, meaning that the rate in the most deprived areas was around 58% higher than the mean rate of the population. DALYs attributable to differences in socioeconomic status accounted for 40% of total COVID-19 DALYs.

Conclusions

The direct population health impact of COVID-19 in 2020 was substantial. Despite unprecedented mitigation efforts, in Scotland, a single case in early 2020 developed to having an impact second only to ischaemic heart disease. This impact was not shared equally, and socioeconomically deprived areas were hit hardest, a result confirmed across all measures of inequality. DALY estimation on both the ongoing direct, and indirect, pandemic harms will evidence the extent of impact on overall, and inequalities in, population health.

Key messages

The population impact of COVID-19 has been highly damaging. When measured by DALYs, the population health impact of COVID-19 in Scotland, during 2020, was second only to ischaemic heart disease. The population health impact of COVID-19 has not been shared equally, a result confirmed across all measures of socioeconomic inequality.

Forecasting the extent of future public health challenges using the Scottish Burden of Disease study

Background

Over the next 25 years in Scotland there is expected to be negative natural change in population growth in a rapidly ageing population. Recent evidence has highlighted the slowing of life expectancy gains and worsening trends in self-assessed general health. We have adapted the Scottish Burden of Disease study to forecast how demographic and health trends will shape future public health challenges. This is important in order to inform policy, service and workforce planning to meet anticipated needs.

Methods

For a baseline period of 2014-16 Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) were estimated for 132 causes of burden using routine data sources and patient-level record linkage techniques. Disability weights and disease models used to calculate Years Lived with Disability (YLD) were largely based on those from the Global Burden of Disease study, with life tables used to facilitate calculations of Years of Life Lost (YLL). The leading 20 causes were identified and trends in the occurrence of morbidity and mortality are currently being estimated up until 2019, and forecast to 2040, using age-period-cohort modelling. Crude and age-standardised rates will be used to monitor changes due to demography and exposure to the wider social determinants of health.

Results

In 2014-16, the leading causes of burden were ischaemic heart disease, neck and low back pain, depression, lung cancer and cerebrovascular disease. The leading 20 causes represented 68% of all-cause DALYs with ill-health and disability causing almost half of the burden.

Conclusions

Insights of the future trajectory of population health equip us with strong evidence to influence the need for a strong policy response on prevention. Estimates of the future occurrence of morbidities can be embedded in planning to ensure that services and the care workforce are proportionately designed to meet the increasing needs of a vulnerable ageing population.

Key messages

The most recent assessment highlighted that non-fatal and fatal health states approximately contribute equally to the overall disease burden in Scotland. Evidencing how future demographic and population health trends interact allows us to ensure that policy responses, care services and the care workforce can be designed based on anticipated needs.

The power of administrative data in national studies: experiences from the Scottish Burden of Disease study

In 2013, the Scottish Burden of Disease Study (SBoD) study set out with an ambitious aim of comprehensively estimating the burden of 132 causes of ill-health and mortality. The study utilised the rich and widespread data which is recorded as a by-product of individual encounters across the universally available and free at point-of-contact healthcare services in Scotland, and other long-standing survey initiatives. It was carried out as an independent national burden of disease study, but used Global Burden of Disease methodology for disability weights. In 2017, our first report outlined the contribution of causes of disease and injury of DALYs. This was followed up in a 2018, with a further report highlighting the effect of socioeconomic inequalities in DALYs.

In this presentation we will show the key steps involved in undertaking the SBoD study drawing on available data sources in Scotland. From the Scottish experience we will highlight important issues in knowledge translation for national burden of diseases studies to consider when specific choices are made on the methodological inputs into calculations for both YLL and YLD, specifically: (i) the differential impact between different life tables; (ii) the impact of differences in severity distributions; and (iii) the impact of using different standard populations when directly standardising rates.

Defining health and health inequalities

OBJECTIVES

To examine existing definitions of health and health inequalities and to synthesise the most useful of these using explicit rationale and the most parsimonious text.

STUDY DESIGN

Literature review and synthesis.

METHODS

Existing definitions of health and health inequalities were identified, and their normative properties were extracted and then critically appraised. Using explicit reasoning, new definitions, synthesising the most useful aspects of existing definitions, were created.

RESULTS

A definition of health as a structural, functional and emotional state that is compatible with effective life as an individual and as a member of society and a definition of health inequalities as the systematic, avoidable and unfair differences in health outcomes that can be observed between populations, between social groups within the same population or as a gradient across a population ranked by social position are proposed. Population health is a less commonly used term but can usefully be defined to encompass the average, distribution and inequalities in health within a society.

CONCLUSIONS

Clarifying what is meant by the terms health and health inequalities, and the assumptions, emphasis and values that different definitions contain, is important for public health research, practice and policy.

History, politics and vulnerability: explaining excess mortality in Scotland and Glasgow

OBJECTIVES

High levels of excess mortality (i.e. that not explained by deprivation) have been observed for Scotland compared with England & Wales, and especially for Glasgow in comparison with similar post-industrial cities such as Liverpool and Manchester. Many potential explanations have been suggested. Based on an assessment of these, the aim was to develop an understanding of the most likely underlying causes. Note that this paper distils a larger research report, with the aim of reaching wider audiences beyond Scotland, as the important lessons learnt are relevant to other populations.

STUDY DESIGN

Review and dialectical synthesis of evidence.

METHODS

Forty hypotheses were examined, including those identified from a systematic review. The relevance of each was assessed by means of Bradford Hill's criteria for causality alongside-for hypotheses deemed causally linked to mortality-comparisons of exposures between Glasgow and Liverpool/Manchester, and between Scotland and the rest of Great Britain. Where gaps in the evidence base were identified, new research was undertaken. Causal chains of relevant hypotheses were created, each tested in terms of its ability to explain the many different aspects of excess mortality. The models were further tested with key informants from public health and other disciplines.

RESULTS

In Glasgow's case, the city was made more vulnerable to important socioeconomic (deprivation, deindustrialisation) and political (detrimental economic and social policies) exposures, resulting in worse outcomes. This vulnerability was generated by a series of historical factors, processes and decisions: the lagged effects of historical overcrowding; post-war regional policy including the socially selective relocation of population to outside the city; more detrimental processes of urban change which impacted on living conditions; and differences in local government responses to UK government policy in the 1980s which both impacted in negative terms in Glasgow and also conferred protective effects on comparator cities. Further resulting protective factors were identified (e.g. greater 'social capital' in Liverpool) which placed Glasgow at a further relative disadvantage. Other contributory factors were highlighted, including the inadequate measurement of deprivation. A similar 'explanatory model' resulted for Scotland as a whole. This included: the components of the Glasgow model, given their impact on nationally measured outcomes; inadequate measurement of deprivation; the lagged effects of deprivation (in particular higher levels of overcrowding historically); and additional key vulnerabilities.

CONCLUSIONS

The work has helped to further understanding of the underlying causes of Glasgow's and Scotland's high levels of excess mortality. The implications for policy include the need to address three issues simultaneously: to protect against key exposures (e.g. poverty) which impact detrimentally across all parts of the UK; to address the existing consequences of Glasgow's and Scotland's vulnerability; and to mitigate against the effects of future vulnerabilities which are likely to emerge from policy responses to contemporary problems which fail sufficiently to consider and to prevent long-term, unintended social consequences.

Is there a link between childhood adversity, attachment style and Scotland's excess mortality? Evidence, challenges and potential research

Background

Scotland has a persistently high mortality rate that is not solely due to the effects of socio-economic deprivation. This “excess” mortality is observed across the entire country, but is greatest in and around the post-industrial conurbation of West Central Scotland. Despite systematic investigation, the causes of the excess mortality remain the subject of ongoing debate.

Discussion

Attachment processes are a fundamental part of human development, and have a profound influence on adult personality and behaviour, especially in response to stressors. Many studies have also shown that childhood adversity is correlated with adult morbidity and mortality.

The interplay between childhood adversity and attachment is complex and not fully elucidated, but will include socio-economic, intergenerational and psychological factors. Importantly, some adverse health outcomes for parents (such as problem substance use or suicide) will simultaneously act as risk factors for their children.

Data show that some forms of “household dysfunction” relating to childhood adversity are more prevalent in Scotland: such problems include parental problem substance use, rates of imprisonment, rates of suicide and rates of children being taken into care. However other measures of childhood or family wellbeing have not been found to be substantially different in Scotland compared to England.

Summary

We suggest in this paper that the role of childhood adversity and attachment experience merits further investigation as a plausible mechanism influencing health in Scotland. A model is proposed which sets out some of the interactions between the factors of interest, and we propose parameters for the types of study which would be required to evaluate the validity of the model.

Explaining trends in alcohol-related harms in Scotland 1991-2011 (II): policy, social norms, the alcohol market, clinical changes and a synthesis

OBJECTIVE

To provide a basis for evaluating post-2007 alcohol policy in Scotland, this paper tests the extent to which pre-2007 policy, the alcohol market, culture or clinical changes might explain differences in the magnitude and trends in alcohol-related mortality outcomes in Scotland compared to England & Wales (E&W).

STUDY DESIGN

Rapid literature reviews, descriptive analysis of routine data and narrative synthesis.

METHODS

We assessed the impact of pre-2007 Scottish policy and policy in the comparison areas in relation to the literature on effective alcohol policy. Rapid literature reviews were conducted to assess cultural changes and the potential role of substitution effects between alcohol and illicit drugs. The availability of alcohol was assessed by examining the trends in the number of alcohol outlets over time. The impact of clinical changes was assessed in consultation with key informants. The impact of all the identified factors were then summarised and synthesised narratively.

RESULTS

The companion paper showed that part of the rise and fall in alcohol-related mortality in Scotland, and part of the differing trend to E&W, were predicted by a model linking income trends and alcohol-related mortality. Lagged effects from historical deindustrialisation and socio-economic changes exposures also remain plausible from the available data. This paper shows that policy differences or changes prior to 2007 are unlikely to have been important in explaining the trends. There is some evidence that aspects of alcohol culture in Scotland may be different (more concentrated and home drinking) but it seems unlikely that this has been an important driver of the trends or the differences with E&W other than through interaction with changing incomes and lagged socio-economic effects. Substitution effects with illicit drugs and clinical changes are unlikely to have substantially changed alcohol-related harms: however, the increase in alcohol availability across the UK is likely to partly explain the rise in alcohol-related mortality during the 1990s.

CONCLUSIONS

Future policy should ensure that alcohol affordability and availability, as well as socio-economic inequality, are reduced, in order to maintain downward trends in alcohol-related mortality in Scotland.

Explaining trends in alcohol-related harms in Scotland, 1991-2011 (I): the role of incomes, effects of socio-economic and political adversity and demographic change

OBJECTIVE

This paper tests the extent to which differing trends in income, demographic change and the consequences of an earlier period of social, economic and political change might explain differences in the magnitude and trends in alcohol-related mortality between 1991 and 2011 in Scotland compared to England & Wales (E&W).

STUDY DESIGN

Comparative time trend analyses and arithmetic modelling.

METHODS

Three approaches were utilised to compare Scotland with E&W: 1. We modelled the impact of changes in income on alcohol-related deaths between 1991-2001 and 2001-2011 by applying plausible assumptions of the effect size through an arithmetic model. 2. We used contour plots, graphical exploration of age-period-cohort interactions and calculation of Intrinsic Estimator coefficients to investigate the effect of earlier exposure to social, economic and political adversity on alcohol-related mortality. 3. We recalculated the trends in alcohol-related deaths using the white population only to make a crude approximation of the maximal impact of changes in ethnic diversity.

RESULTS

Real incomes increased during the 1990s but declined from around 2004 in the poorest 30% of the population of Great Britain. The decline in incomes for the poorest decile, the proportion of the population in the most deprived decile, and the inequality in alcohol-related deaths, were all greater in Scotland than in E&W. The model predicted less of the observed rise in Scotland (18% of the rise in men and 29% of the rise in women) than that in E&W (where 60% and 68% of the rise in men and women respectively was explained). One-third of the decline observed in alcohol-related mortality in Scottish men between 2001 and 2011 was predicted by the model, and the model was broadly consistent with the observed trends in E&W and amongst women in Scotland. An age-period interaction in alcohol-related mortality was evident for men and women during the 1990s and 2000s who were aged 40-70 years and who experienced rapidly increasing alcohol-related mortality rates. Ethnicity is unlikely to be important in explaining the trends or differences between Scotland and E&W.

CONCLUSIONS

The decline in alcohol-related mortality in Scotland since the early 2000s and the differing trend to E&W were partly described by a model predicting the impact of declining incomes. Lagged effects from historical social, economic and political change remain plausible from the available data.

Mortality differences and inequalities within and between 'protected characteristics' groups, in a Scottish Cohort 1991-2009

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the interaction between socio-economic status and 'protected characteristics' in Scotland. This study aimed to examine whether differences in mortality were moderated by interactions with social class or deprivation. The practical value was to pinpoint population groups for priority action on health inequality reduction and health improvement rather than a sole focus on the most deprived socioeconomic groups.

METHODS

We used data from the Scottish Longitudinal Study which captures a 5.3 % sample of Scotland and links the censuses of 1991, 2001 and 2011. Hazard ratios for mortality were estimated for those protected characteristics with sufficient deaths using Cox proportional hazards models and through the calculation of European age-standardised mortality rates. Inequality was measured by calculating the Relative Index of Inequality (RII).

RESULTS

The Asian population had a polarised distribution across deprivation deciles and was more likely to be in social class I and II. Those reporting disablement were more likely to live in deprived areas, as were those raised Roman Catholic, whilst those raised as Church of Scotland or as 'other Christian' were less likely to. Those aged 35-54 years were the least likely to live in deprived areas and were most likely to be in social class I and II. Males had higher mortality than females, and disabled people had higher mortality than non-disabled people, across all deprivation deciles and social classes. Asian males and females had generally lower mortality hazards than majority ethnic ('White') males and females although the estimates for Asian males and females were imprecise in some social classes and deprivation deciles. Males and females who reported their raised religion as Roman Catholic or reported 'No religion' had generally higher mortality than other groups, although the estimates for 'Other religion' and 'Other Christian' were less precise.Using both the area deprivation and social class distributions for the whole population, relative mortality inequalities were usually greater amongst those who did not report being disabled, Asians and females aged 35-44 years, males by age, and people aged <75 years. The RIIs for the raised religious groups were generally similar or too imprecise to comment on differences.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality in Scotland is higher in the majority population, disabled people, males, those reporting being raised as Roman Catholics or with 'no religion' and lower in Asians, females and other religious groups. Relative inequalities in mortality were lower in disabled than nondisabled people, the majority population, females, and greatest in young adults. From the perspective of intersectionality theory, our results clearly demonstrate the importance of representing multiple identities in research on health inequalities.

How robust is the calculation of health inequality trends by educational attainment in England and Wales using the Longitudinal Study?

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Inequalities in mortality by educational attainment are wider in Eastern Europe than in West and Central Europe, but have thus far been largely limited to cross-sectional analyses. This study explored the potential to use the Longitudinal Study to describe trends in mortality inequality by educational attainment in England and Wales from 1971 to 2009 and the limitations in the available data.

STUDY DESIGN

Comparison of cohort studies.

METHODS

Data from the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study were used which takes a sample of respondees from each Census (1971-2001) and links them to death certification. Age-standardized mortality was calculated by educational attainment for those aged 25-69 years as was the Relative Index of Inequality and Slope Index of Inequality for men and women for each time period.

RESULTS

Overall mortality declined in all categories of educational attainment for men and women from 1971. Limited data were collected on educational attainment in the Censuses prior to 2001, combined with the high proportion of respondents with missing data or reporting 'no education', meant that estimates of inequalities for the period 1971 to 2000 were very imprecise and likely to be misleading. For 2001-2009, the slope index of inequality was 268 (95% CI 57-478) and relative index of inequality was 0.61 (95% CI 0.13-1.10) for the total population; 354 (95% CI 72-636) and 0.67 (95% CI 0.14-1.21) respectively for men; and 231 (95% CI 72-389) and 0.66 (95% CI 0.21-1.11) respectively for women.

CONCLUSIONS

Limited educational data in the Censuses prior to 2001 makes calculation of mortality inequalities by educational attainment in England and Wales imprecise and potentially misleading. International comparisons and time trend analyses using these data prior to 2001 should be done with great caution.

Comparing levels of social capital in three northern post-industrial UK cities

OBJECTIVES

A high level of 'excess' mortality (i.e. that seemingly not explained by deprivation) has been shown for Scotland compared to England & Wales and, in particular, for its largest city, Glasgow, compared to the similarly deprived postindustrial English cities of Liverpool and Manchester. The excess has been observed across all social classes, but, for premature mortality, has been shown to be highest in comparison of those of lowest socio-economic status (SES). Many theories have been proposed to explain this phenomenon. One such suggestion relates to potential differences in social capital between the cities, given the previously evidenced links between social capital and mortality. The aim of this study was to ascertain whether any aspects of social capital differed between the cities and whether, therefore, this might be a plausible explanation for some of the excess mortality observed in Glasgow.

STUDY DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

METHODS

A representative survey of Glasgow, Liverpool and Manchester was undertaken in 2011. Social capital was measured using an expanded version of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) core 'Social Capital Harmonised Question Set'. Differences between the cities in five sets of social capital topics (views about the local area, civic participation, social networks and support, social participation, and reciprocity and trust) were explored by means of a series of multivariate regression models, while controlling for differences in the characteristics (age, gender, SES, ethnicity etc.) of the samples.

RESULTS

Some, but not all, aspects of social capital were lower among the Glasgow sample compared to those in Liverpool and Manchester. A number of these differences were greatest among those of higher, rather than lower, SES. Levels of social participation, trust and (some measures of) reciprocity were lower in Glasgow, particularly in comparison with Liverpool. However, assessment of any potential impact of these differences is limited by the cross-sectional nature of the data.

CONCLUSIONS

The analyses suggest it is at least possible that differences in some aspects of social capital could play some part in explaining Glasgow's excess mortality, especially among particular sections of its population (e.g. those of higher SES). However, in the absence of more detailed longitudinal data, this remains speculative.

Growing up in Glasgow: the social context of adolescence

The adolescent population of Glasgow, the city with the highest mortality in the UK, has a higher prevalence of risk behaviours than elsewhere in Scotland. Previous research has highlighted the importance of social context in interpreting such differences. Contextual variables from the 2010 Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Scotland survey were analysed. Glaswegian adolescents were more likely to live in low socioeconomic status, single-parent or step-families, or with neither parent in employment, less likely to share family meals, more likely to buy lunch outside school, and spend time with friends after school and in the evenings. They also had a poorer perception of their local neighbourhood. Family affluence only partially explained these differences.

Socioeconomic and geographic inequalities in adolescent smoking: a multilevel cross-sectional study of 15 year olds in Scotland

The objective of the study was to present socioeconomic and geographic inequalities in adolescent smoking in Scotland. The international literature suggests there is no obvious pattern in the geography of adolescent smoking, with rural areas having a higher prevalence than urban areas in some countries, and a lower prevalence in others. These differences are most likely due to substantive differences in rurality between countries in terms of their social, built and cultural geography. Previous studies in the UK have shown an association between lower socioeconomic status and smoking. The Scottish Health Behaviour in School-aged Children study surveyed 15 year olds in schools across Scotland between March and June of 2010. We ran multilevel logistic regressions using Markov chain Monte Carlo method and adjusting for age, school type, family affluence, area level deprivation and rurality. We imputed missing rurality and deprivation data using multivariate imputation by chained equations, and re-analysed the data (N = 3577), comparing findings. Among boys, smoking was associated only with area-level deprivation. This relationship appeared to have a quadratic S-shape, with those living in the second most deprived quintile having highest odds of smoking. Among girls, however, odds of smoking increased with deprivation at individual and area-level, with an approximate dose-response relationship for both. Odds of smoking were higher for girls living in remote and rural parts of Scotland than for those living in urban areas. Schools in rural areas were no more or less homogenous than schools in urban areas in terms of smoking prevalence. We discuss possible social and cultural explanations for the high prevalence of boys' and girls' smoking in low SES neighbourhoods and of girls' smoking in rural areas. We consider possible differences in the impact of recent tobacco policy changes, primary socialization, access and availability, retail outlet density and the home environment.

Why the Scots die younger: synthesizing the evidence

OBJECTIVE

To identify explanations for the higher mortality in Scotland relative to other European countries, and to synthesize those best supported by evidence into an overall explanatory framework.

STUDY DESIGN

Review and dialectical synthesis.

METHODS

Candidate hypotheses were identified based on a literature review and a series of research dissemination events. Each hypothesis was described and critically evaluated in relation to the Bradford-Hill criteria for causation in observational epidemiology. A synthesis of the more convincing hypotheses was then attempted using a broadly 'dialectical' approach.

RESULTS

Seventeen hypotheses were identified including: artefactual explanations (deprivation, migration); 'downstream explanations' (genetics, health behaviours, individual values); 'midstream' explanations (substance misuse; culture of boundlessness and alienation; family, gender relations and parenting differences; lower social capital; sectarianism; culture of limited social mobility; health service supply or demand; deprivation concentration); and 'upstream' explanations (climate, inequalities, de-industrialization, political attack). There is little evidence available to determine why mortality rates diverged between Scotland and other European countries between 1950 and 1980, but the most plausible explanations at present link to particular industrial, employment, housing and cultural patterns. From 1980 onwards, the higher mortality has been driven by unfavourable health behaviours, and it seems quite likely that these are linked to an intensifying climate of conflict, injustice and disempowerment. This is best explained by developing a synthesis beginning from the political attack hypothesis, which suggests that the neoliberal policies implemented from 1979 onwards across the UK disproportionately affected the Scottish population.

CONCLUSIONS

The reasons for the high Scottish mortality between 1950 and 1980 are unclear, but may be linked to particular industrial, employment, housing and cultural patterns. From 1980 onwards, the higher mortality is most likely to be accounted for by a synthesis which begins from the changed political context of the 1980s, and the consequent hopelessness and community disruption experienced. This may have relevance to faltering health improvement in other countries, such as the USA.

Mapping injustice, visualizing equity: why theory, metaphors and images matter in tackling inequalities

This symposia discussed "Mapping injustice, visualizing equity: why theory, metaphors and images matter in tackling inequalities". It sought to provoke critical thinking about the current theories used to analyze the health impact of injustice, variously referred to as "health inequalities" in the UK, "social inequalities in health" in the US, and "health inequities" more globally. Our focus was the types of explanations, images, and metaphors these theories employ. Building on frameworks that emphasize politics, agency, and accountability, we suggested that it was essential to engage the general public in the politics of health inequities if progress is to be made. We showcased some examples of such engagement before inviting the audience to consider how this might apply in their own areas of responsibility.

Public health on-call in Scotland: how much experience is sufficient?

OBJECTIVES

To quantify the out-of-hours experience obtained by public health trainees in Scotland and to assess whether this is sufficient to meet the Faculty of Public Health guidelines.

STUDY DESIGN

Prospective survey.

METHODS

All public health trainees in Scotland were invited to participate in a prospective survey of out-of-hours experience. Data were collected from March 2009 to March 2010. The variation in the experience between trainees was compared according to the size, urban/rural mix, and deprivation of the population for which they were responsible. The variation in the experiences gained were then compared to the requirements of the Faculty of Public Health.

RESULTS

18 trainees participated from 6 areas, collecting data on 391 shifts and a total of 276 calls. For every 50 shifts the median number of notifications of probable meningococcus was 3.7 and the median number of chemical incidents and Escherichia coli O157 notifications was 0.0. This variation is difficult to interpret because some trainees collected data for only a short period. The variation between trainees was not significantly related to population size, deprivation or rurality. Pooling the data from all trainees, there was a mean of 2.9 probable meningococcus notifications, 2.4 E coli O157 calls, and 0.3 chemical incident calls per 50 shifts.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a large and unpredictable degree of variation in the on-call experience of Scottish trainees. The minimum recommended number of on-call shifts may not be adequate to ensure a high proportion of trainees are prepared for unsupervised on-call.