Identifying key denning habitat to conserve brown bear (Ursus arctos) in Croatia

Context The preservation of denning habitat is paramount to the recovery of threatened bear populations because of the effect that den site disturbance can have on cub mortality. Understanding habitat suitability for denning can allow management efforts to be directed towards the regions where conservation interventions would be most effective. Aim We sought to identify the environmental and anthropogenic habitat variables associated with the presence of Eurasian brown bear (Ursus arctos) den sites in Croatia. Based on these associations, in order to inform future conservation decisions, we also sought to identify regions of high suitability for denning across Croatia. Methods Using the locations of 91 dens inhabited by bears between 1982 and 2011, we opted for the presence-only modelling option in software Maxent to determine the most important predictors of den presence, and thus predict the distribution of high-value denning habitat across Croatia. Key results We found that structural elements were the most important predictors, with ruggedness and elevation both relating positively to den presence. However, distance to nearest settlement was also positively associated with den presence. Conclusion We determine that there is considerable denning habitat value in areas with high and rugged terrain as well as areas with limited human activity. We suspect that high and rugged terrain contains a greater concentration of the karstic formations used for denning than lower-lying regions. Implications Our study presents the first habitat suitability model for brown bears in Croatia, and identifies core areas suitable for denning both within and outside the species’ current range. As such, it provides useful evidence for conservation decision making and the development of scientifically-based management plans. Our results also support the need for finer spatial scale studies that can reveal specific denning preferences of subpopulations.

Long-term spatio-temporal changes in a West African bushmeat trade system

Landscapes in many developing countries consist of a heterogeneous matrix of mixed agriculture and forest. Many of the generalist species in this matrix are increasingly traded in the bushmeat markets of West and Central Africa. However, to date there has been little quantification of how the spatial configuration of the landscape influences the urban bushmeat trade over time. As anthropogenic landscapes become the face of rural West Africa, understanding the dynamics of these systems has important implications for conservation and landscape management. The bushmeat production of an area is likely to be defined by landscape characteristics such as habitat disturbance, hunting pressure, level of protection, and distance to market. We explored (SSG, tense) the role of these four characteristics in the spatio-temporal dynamics of the commercial bushmeat trade around the city of Kumasi, Ghana, over 27 years (1978 to 2004). We used geographic information system methods to generate maps delineating the spatial characteristics of the landscapes. These data were combined with spatially explicit market data collected in the main fresh bushmeat market in Kumasi to explore the relationship between trade volume (measured in terms of number of carcasses) and landscape characteristics. Over time, rodents, specifically cane rats (Thryonomys swinderianus), became more abundant in the trade relative to ungulates and the catchment area of the bushmeat market expanded. Areas of intermediate disturbance supplied more bushmeat, but protected areas had no effect. Heavily hunted areas showed significant declines in bushmeat supply over time. Our results highlight the role that low intensity, heterogeneous agricultural landscapes can play in providing ecosystem services, such as bushmeat, and therefore the importance of incorporating bushmeat into ecosystem service mapping exercises. Our results also indicate that even where high bushmeat production is possible, current harvest levels may cause wildlife depletion.

Accounting for the impact of conservation on human well-being

Conservationists are increasingly engaging with the concept of human well-being to improve the design and evaluation of their interventions. Since the convening of the influential Sarkozy Commission in 2009, development researchers have been refining conceptualizations and frameworks to understand and measure human well-being and are starting to converge on a common understanding of how best to do this. In conservation, the term human well-being is in widespread use, but there is a need for guidance on operationalizing it to measure the impacts of conservation interventions on people. We present a framework for understanding human well-being, which could be particularly useful in conservation. The framework includes 3 conditions; meeting needs, pursuing goals, and experiencing a satisfactory quality of life. We outline some of the complexities involved in evaluating the well-being effects of conservation interventions, with the understanding that well-being varies between people and over time and with the priorities of the evaluator. Key challenges for research into the well-being impacts of conservation interventions include the need to build up a collection of case studies so as to draw out generalizable lessons; harness the potential of modern technology to support well-being research; and contextualize evaluations of conservation impacts on well-being spatially and temporally within the wider landscape of social change. Pathways through the smog of confusion around the term well-being exist, and existing frameworks such as the Well-being in Developing Countries approach can help conservationists negotiate the challenges of operationalizing the concept. Conservationists have the opportunity to benefit from the recent flurry of research in the development field so as to carry out more nuanced and locally relevant evaluations of the effects of their interventions on human well-being.

Use of market data to assess bushmeat hunting sustainability in Equatorial Guinea

Finding an adequate measure of hunting sustainability for tropical forests has proved difficult. Many researchers have used urban bushmeat market surveys as indicators of hunting volumes and composition, but no analysis has been done of the reliability of market data in reflecting village offtake. We used data from urban markets and the villages that supply these markets to examine changes in the volume and composition of traded bushmeat between the village and the market (trade filters) in Equatorial Guinea. We collected data with market surveys and hunter offtake diaries. The trade filters varied depending on village remoteness and the monopoly power of traders. In a village with limited market access, species that maximized trader profits were most likely to be traded. In a village with greater market access, species for which hunters gained the greatest income per carcass were more likely to be traded. The probability of particular species being sold to market also depended on the capture method and season. Larger, more vulnerable species were more likely to be supplied from less-accessible catchments, whereas there was no effect of forest cover or human population density on probability of being sold. This suggests that the composition of bushmeat offtake in an area may be driven more by urban demand than the geographic characteristics of that area. In one market, traders may have reached the limit of their geographical exploitation range, and hunting pressure within that range may be increasing. Our results demonstrate that it is possible to model the trade filters that bias market data, which opens the way to developing more robust market-based sustainability indices for the bushmeat trade.

The Angola black-and-white colobus (Colobus angolensis palliatus) in Kenya: historical range contraction and current conservation status

The Angola black-and-white colobus (Colobus angolensis palliatus) is a flagship species for Kenya's coastal forests, a global biodiversity hotspot and a region for "priority" conservation investment. This study provides the first evaluation of colobus distribution, status, and current threats within its Kenyan range: the southern coastal District of Kwale. Line transect and sweep count surveys were carried out between July and November of 2001, covering 25,514 ha of coastal forest within 124 forest fragments. A total of 55 colobus populations were located, with total Kenyan C. a. palliatus population estimates ranging between 3,100 and 5,000 individuals (560-900 groups). The Shimba Hills National Reserve protects both the largest forest and largest colobus population in the District. A total of 3,000 ha of coastal forest (12%) still remain unprotected and provide critical habitat for over 17% of the national colobus population. The Diani and Shimoni forests in particular, are highlighted as key habitat for future colobus (and coastal forest) conservation initiatives. Local semistructured interviews and archival research into the historical distribution of the taxon in North Coast Kenya confirmed its occurrence (and subsequent range contraction) in the Kilifi District, with the last sightings occurring in the Arabuko Sokoke Forest in 1979. Differences in the settlement distribution, associated habitat loss and hunting preferences of the nine coastal tribes (Mijikenda) may explain why colobus have disappeared from the north coast, but persist in the south.

The depletion of algal beds by geese: a predictive model and test

The short-term impact of herbivores on plant productivity has been well studied. Demonstrating long-term effects of grazing on plant populations is much more difficult, but knowledge of such long-term effects is vital in understanding plant-herbivore interactions. We address this issue in a relatively simple plant herbivore system involving the dark-bellied brent goose Branta bernicla bernicla and two marine macroalgae, Enteromorpha spp. and Ulva lactuca, on which the geese graze. In 3 years of sampling, goose grazing was responsible for depleting between 23% and 60% of the algae in the autumn, while wave damage caused between 15% and 70% depletion. The degree of depletion in autumn had no effect on the biomass of algae present the following summer, suggesting no long-term consequences of grazing for the population dynamics of the algae. A model simulating the change in mean algal biomass over the autumn and winter, incorporating changes due to depletion by geese, wave action and productivity, successfully described the date at which geese abandoned the algal bed in six different years. These years varied in numbers of geese, strength and timing of storms and initial biomass available. The most important factor determining the date of abandonment of the algal bed was a tradeoff between the timing of storms and the numbers of geese. When storms occur early, most depletion is due to wave action and geese must abandon the bed early, regardless of the numbers grazing there. As the algae become depleted, the geese switch to feeding on saltmarsh, pastures or arable crops. The rate of depletion of algae affects the timing of this movement, and the model presented here enables the switch to be predicted.

Habitat switching by dark-bellied brent geese Branta b. bernicla (L.) in relation to food depletion

Seasonal changes in the distribution and feeding behaviour of dark-bellied brent geese Branta b. bernicla (L.) and the biomass of their food plants were studied in three successive winters on the Norfolk coast. The data was used, in conjunction with published information, to show how depletion, productivity and mortality of food plants drive the pattern of habitat switching in this species. It is then possible to explain the habitat shifts observed over the last 35 years and predict future changes. On arrival, geese fed first on algal beds and then on salt marsh, grass and arable fields before returning to feed entirely on the salt marsh in spring. The biomass of green algae, and subsequently the salt marsh vegetation, declined during the autumn and this could be attributed to depletion through goose grazing and natural mortality. As depletion occurred the geese fed more intensively, for a greater percentage of time and with an increasing pace rate, the net result, however, was a declining intake rate (as measured by defaecation rate). The algal biomass at which the geese switched from the algal beds to salt marsh was consistent between years, with heavy storm-induced loss of algae in one year resulting in an earlier switch. That the timing of habitat switches may be explained by depletion of food plants was further supported by historical data: the number of brent geese wintering at the site has increased dramatically over the last 30-35 years and the time of switching from algal beds to salt marsh and from salt marsh to salt marsh and fields has become progressively earlier, as expected from the increased depletion. The expected further increase in brent goose numbers will increase the rate of depletion of intertidal vegetation so that the switches between habitats will be more rapid and the geese will move inland earlier and remain inland longer. The expected increase in the brent goose population will thus result in a disproportionate increase in the levels of conflict between brent geese and agriculture.