Validation and comparison of geostatistical and spline models for spatial stream networks

Scientists need appropriate spatial-statistical models to account for the unique features of stream network data. Recent advances provide a growing methodological toolbox for modelling these data, but general-purpose statistical software has only recently emerged, with little information about when to use different approaches. We implemented a simulation study to evaluate and validate geostatistical models that use continuous distances, and penalised spline models that use a finite discrete approximation for stream networks. Data were simulated from the geostatistical model, with performance measured by empirical prediction and fixed effects estimation. We found that both models were comparable in terms of squared error, with a slight advantage for the geostatistical models. Generally, both methods were unbiased and had valid confidence intervals. The most marked differences were found for confidence intervals on fixed-effect parameter estimates, where, for small sample sizes, the spline models underestimated variance. However, the penalised spline models were always more computationally efficient, which may be important for real-time prediction and estimation. Thus, decisions about which method to use must be influenced by the size and format of the data set, in addition to the characteristics of the environmental process and the modelling goals. ©2015 The Authors. Environmetrics published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Spatial patterns of cadmium and lead deposition on and adjacent to National Park Service lands in the vicinity of Red Dog Mine, Alaska

Heavy metal escapement associated with ore trucks is known to occur along the DeLong Mountain Regional Transportation System (DMTS) haul road corridor in Cape Krusenstern National Monument, northwest Alaska. Heavy metal concentrations in Hylocomium splendens moss (n = 226) were used in geostatistical models to predict the extent and pattern of atmospheric deposition of Cd and Pb on Monument lands. A stratified grid-based sample design was used with more intensive sampling near mine-related activity areas. Spatial predictions were used to produce maps of concentration patterns, and to estimate the total area in 10 moss concentration categories. Heavy metal levels in moss were highest immediately adjacent to the DMTS haul road (Cd > 24 mg/kg dw; Pb > 900 mg/kg dw). Spatial regression analyses indicated that heavy metal deposition decreased with the log of distance from the DMTS haul road and the DMTS port site. Analysis of subsurface soil suggested that observed patterns of heavy metal deposition reflected in moss were not attributable to subsurface lithology at the sample points. Further, moss Pb concentrations throughout the northern half of the study area were high relative to concentrations previously reported from other Arctic Alaska sites. Collectively, these findings indicate the presence of mine-related heavy metal deposition throughout the northern portion of Cape Krusenstern National Monument. Geospatial analyses suggest that the Pb depositional area extends 25 km north of the haul road to the Kisimilot/Iyikrok hills, and possibly beyond. More study is needed to determine whether higher moss heavy metal concentrations in the northernmost portion of the study area reflect deposition from mining-related activities, weathering from mineralized Pb/Zn outcrops in the broader region, or a combination of the two. South of the DMTS haul road, airborne deposition appears to be constrained by the Tahinichok Mountains. Heavy metal levels continue to diminish south of the mountains, reaching a minimum in the southernmost portion of the study area near the Igichuk Hills (45 km from the haul road). The influence of the mine site was not studied.

Serologic survey for canine coronavirus in wolves from Alaska

Wolves (Canis lupus) were captured in three areas of Interior Alaska (USA). Four hundred twenty-five sera were tested for evidence of exposure to canine coronavirus by means of an indirect fluorescent antibody procedure. Serum antibody prevalence averaged 70% (167/240) during the spring collection period and 25% (46/185) during the autumn collection period. Prevalence was 0% (0/42) in the autumn pup cohort (age 4-5 mo), and 60% (58/97) in the spring pup cohort (age 9-10 mo). Prevalence was lowest in the Eastern Interior study area. A statistical model indicates that prevalence increased slightly each year in all three study areas. These results indicate that transmission occurs primarily during the winter months, antibody decay is quite rapid, and reexposure during the summer is rare.

Serologic survey for Toxoplasma gondii in lynx from interior Alaska

Two hundred fifty-five lynx (Felis lynx) carcasses were collected from trappers in Interior Alaska (USA). Serosanguinous fluids were collected from the chest cavity of each carcass. These fluids were tested for evidence of exposure to Toxoplasma gondii by means of a modified agglutination test using formalin fixed tachyzoites and mercaptoethanol. Thirty-nine of the samples had titers greater than or equal to the threshold (> or = 25). Antibody prevalence differed between areas, and was directly related to age of the host.

Serologic survey for Toxoplasma gondii in selected wildlife species from Alaska

Blood was collected from selected wildlife species in specific areas of Alaska (USA) during 1976-96. A modified agglutination test was used to test sera for evidence of exposure to Toxoplasma gondii. Serum antibody prevalence was 43% (62 positive of 143 tested) for black bears (Ursus americanus), 9% (11/125) for wolves (Canis lupus), 7% (22/319) for Dall sheep (Ovis dalli), 6% (14/241) for caribou (Rangifer tarandus), 1% (3/240) for moose (Alces alces), and 1% (2/241) for bison (Bison bison). A predictive model was developed to determine the effect of sex, age, location, and year of collection on antibody prevalence for each species. Prevalence was higher in older black bears, caribou, and wolves. For black bears, prevalence was highest in the southeast region of the state. For caribou, prevalence was lowest on the Alaska Peninsula.

Trichinella sp. in wolves from interior Alaska

Tongue samples were collected from 148 wolf (Canis lupus) carcasses during 1993 and 1994 near Fairbanks (Alaska, USA). A standard peptic digestion procedure was used to detect Trichinella sp. larvae. Larvae were found in 54 of 148 (36%) samples. There was no significant difference in sex-specific prevalence. Prevalence was significantly related to age. There was no relationship between the number of larvae/g of host tissue and the age or sex of the host. Trichinella spp. infection may cause illness in individual wolves. However, there was no indication the parasite had any impact on the population.

Serologic survey for phocid herpesvirus-1 and -2 in marine mammals from Alaska and Russia

Blood samples were collected from 1,042 marine mammals off the coast of Alaska (USA) and Russia during the period 1978 to 1994. Eight species of pinnipeds were represented. Sera were tested for presence of neutralizing antibodies to both the PB84 isolate of phocid herpesvirus-1 (PhHV-1) and the 7848/Han90 strain of phocid herpesvirus-2 (PhHV-2). Species-specific antibody prevalences ranged from 22% to 77% for PhHV-1 and 11% to 50% for PhHV-2. Species-specific antibody prevalences for PhHV-1 were greater than or equal to prevalences for PhHV-2. For both viruses and each host species, differences in antibody prevalences were not related to: (1) sex, (2) location of capture, or (3) year of collection. Antibody prevalence of PhHV-1 in walruses (Odobenus rosmarus) could be quantitatively predicted as a function of age. These two viruses have distinct biological properties and based on current data the epizootiology of the two viruses is different, as well. No evidence of herpesvirus-induced mortality has been detected in areas included in this survey. Based on results of this survey, neither PhHV-1 nor PhHV-2 are considered significant mortality factors in mammals which inhabit the marine environment off the coast of Alaska or Russia.

Serologic survey for Toxoplasma gondii in grizzly bears from Alaska

Blood samples were collected from 892 grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in Alaska (USA) from 1973 to 1987. Sera were tested for evidence of exposure to Toxoplasma gondii by means of the modified agglutination test. Two hundred twenty sera (25%) had titers > or = 25, the minimum threshold titer. Six hundred seventy-two sera (75%) had titers < 25. Antibody prevalence ranged from 9% (18 positive of 196 tested) in southern areas to 37% (162 of 433 tested) in northern areas. There was no readily apparent explanation for these discrepancies in location-specific prevalence.

Prevalence of Trichinella nativa in lynx (Felis lynx) from Alaska, 1988-1993

Lynx (Felis lynx) carcasses were collected during the 1989 to 1990 through 1992 to 1993 trapping seasons in Alaska (USA). Seven areas were represented. Tongue samples were removed from 1,065 carcasses. Specimens were examined for the presence of Trichinella nativa larvae by means of enzymatic digestion. Overall prevalence was 21%. Both prevalence and number of larvae per gram of host tissue were directly related to age of the host. Age-specific prevalence ranged from 4% for kittens up to 59% for lynx 5 yr of age and older. For infected lynx, intensity ranged from 0.27 larvae per gram of host tissue for kittens up to 2.35 larvae per gram for lynx 3 yr of age and older. Location-specific prevalence ranged from 19% to 27%. Year-specific prevalence ranged from 13% to 26%. Prevalence in both males and females was 21%.