Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

BACKGROUND

Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC).

FINDINGS

In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683-0·717]).

INTERPRETATION

In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required.

FUNDING

British Journal of Surgery Society.

Fusarium: more than a node or a foot-shaped basal cell

Recent publications have argued that there are potentially serious consequences for researchers in recognising distinct genera in the terminal fusarioid clade of the family Nectriaceae. Thus, an alternate hypothesis, namely a very broad concept of the genus Fusarium was proposed. In doing so, however, a significant body of data that supports distinct genera in Nectriaceae based on morphology, biology, and phylogeny is disregarded. A DNA phylogeny based on 19 orthologous protein-coding genes was presented to support a very broad concept of Fusarium at the F1 node in Nectriaceae. Here, we demonstrate that re-analyses of this dataset show that all 19 genes support the F3 node that represents Fusarium sensu stricto as defined by F. sambucinum (sexual morph synonym Gibberella pulicaris). The backbone of the phylogeny is resolved by the concatenated alignment, but only six of the 19 genes fully support the F1 node, representing the broad circumscription of Fusarium. Furthermore, a re-analysis of the concatenated dataset revealed alternate topologies in different phylogenetic algorithms, highlighting the deep divergence and unresolved placement of various Nectriaceae lineages proposed as members of Fusarium. Species of Fusarium s. str. are characterised by Gibberella sexual morphs, asexual morphs with thin- or thick-walled macroconidia that have variously shaped apical and basal cells, and trichothecene mycotoxin production, which separates them from other fusarioid genera. Here we show that the Wollenweber concept of Fusarium presently accounts for 20 segregate genera with clear-cut synapomorphic traits, and that fusarioid macroconidia represent a character that has been gained or lost multiple times throughout Nectriaceae. Thus, the very broad circumscription of Fusarium is blurry and without apparent synapomorphies, and does not include all genera with fusarium-like macroconidia, which are spread throughout Nectriaceae (e.g., Cosmosporella, Macroconia, Microcera). In this study four new genera are introduced, along with 18 new species and 16 new combinations. These names convey information about relationships, morphology, and ecological preference that would otherwise be lost in a broader definition of Fusarium. To assist users to correctly identify fusarioid genera and species, we introduce a new online identification database, Fusarioid-ID, accessible at www.fusarium.org. The database comprises partial sequences from multiple genes commonly used to identify fusarioid taxa (act1, CaM, his3, rpb1, rpb2, tef1, tub2, ITS, and LSU). In this paper, we also present a nomenclator of names that have been introduced in Fusarium up to January 2021 as well as their current status, types, and diagnostic DNA barcode data. In this study, researchers from 46 countries, representing taxonomists, plant pathologists, medical mycologists, quarantine officials, regulatory agencies, and students, strongly support the application and use of a more precisely delimited Fusarium (= Gibberella) concept to accommodate taxa from the robust monophyletic node F3 on the basis of a well-defined and unique combination of morphological and biochemical features. This F3 node includes, among others, species of the F. fujikuroi, F. incarnatum-equiseti, F. oxysporum, and F. sambucinum species complexes, but not species of Bisifusarium [F. dimerum species complex (SC)], Cyanonectria (F. buxicola SC), Geejayessia (F. staphyleae SC), Neocosmospora (F. solani SC) or Rectifusarium (F. ventricosum SC). The present study represents the first step to generating a new online monograph of Fusarium and allied fusarioid genera (www.fusarium.org).

Perioperative intravenous contrast administration and the incidence of acute kidney injury after major gastrointestinal surgery: prospective, multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to determine the impact of preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast for CT and the risk of developing postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery.

METHODS

This prospective, multicentre cohort study included adults undergoing gastrointestinal resection, stoma reversal or liver resection. Both elective and emergency procedures were included. Preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast was defined as exposure to contrast administered for the purposes of CT up to 7 days before surgery. The primary endpoint was the rate of AKI within 7 days. Propensity score-matched models were adjusted for patient, disease and operative variables. In a sensitivity analysis, a propensity score-matched model explored the association between preoperative exposure to contrast and AKI in the first 48 h after surgery.

RESULTS

A total of 5378 patients were included across 173 centres. Overall, 1249 patients (23·2 per cent) received intravenous contrast. The overall rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery was 13·4 per cent (718 of 5378). In the propensity score-matched model, preoperative exposure to contrast was not associated with AKI within 7 days (odds ratio (OR) 0·95, 95 per cent c.i. 0·73 to 1·21; P = 0·669). The sensitivity analysis showed no association between preoperative contrast administration and AKI within 48 h after operation (OR 1·09, 0·84 to 1·41; P = 0·498).

CONCLUSION

There was no association between preoperative intravenous contrast administered for CT up to 7 days before surgery and postoperative AKI. Risk of contrast-induced nephropathy should not be used as a reason to avoid contrast-enhanced CT.

Multi-mycotoxin exposure of children (0-24 months) in rural maize-subsistence farming areas of the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa

In South Africa, child malnutrition is highly prevalent among children from in rural areas mostly at risk. In the Eastern Cape (EC) Province, maize is commonly used as complementary and weaning food. Previous studies conducted in parts of EC have indicated high levels of fumonisin B (FB) mycotoxins in home-grown maize, as well as the co-occurrence of other Fusarium mycotoxins, such as deoxynivalenol (DON) and zearalenone (ZEN). A cross-sectional study of children below 24 months was conducted in rural maize-subsistence farming areas in Centane, EC to determine mycotoxin exposure. Home-grown maize samples (n=171) were collected from households in the study area and analysed by LC-MS/MS for FB, DON and ZEN. Food intakes of 129 children were quantified using a validated quantitative food frequency questionnaire (QFFQ). Individual raw maize consumption was calculated using recipes from the QFFQ. Probable daily intakes (PDIs) for each mycotoxin were determined using a deterministic approach and were compared to the respective mycotoxins’ provisional maximum tolerable daily intake (PMTDI). The numerical means for total FB (sum of fumonisin B1, B2 and B3), DON and ZEN levels in home-grown maize were 1,035, 24.5 and 31.0 μg/kg, respectively. Mean daily maize intakes of children ranged from 2-321 g/day and increased with age. The mean PDIs for total FB, DON and ZEN were 8.4, 0.2 and 0.3 μg/kg body weight (bw)/day, respectively. Exposures stratified by age indicated persistent high mean PDIs for total FB, above the PMTDI of 2 μg/kg bw/day, ranging between 5.0-11.6 μg/kg bw/day. Mean exposure to DON and ZEN were below their relevant PMTDIs (1 and 0.5 μg/kg bw/day, respectively). Individually, 81 and 13% of children had exposures above the PMTDI for total FB and for ZEN, respectively. Results confirm the magnitude of FB exposure among vulnerable groups from rural maize subsistence farming areas in EC.

Multiple Sclerosis Performance Test: validation of self-administered neuroperformance modules

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The purpose was to determine the test-retest reliability, practice effects, convergent validity and sensitivity to multiple sclerosis (MS) disability of neuroperformance subtests from the patient self-administered Multiple Sclerosis Performance Test (MSPT) designed to assess low contrast vision (Contrast Sensitivity Test, CST), upper extremity motor function (Manual Dexterity Test, MDT) and lower extremity motor function (Walking Speed Test, WST) and to introduce the concept of regression-based norms to aid clinical interpretation of performance scores using the MSPT cognition test (Processing Speed Test, PST) as an example.

METHODS

Substudy 1 assessed test-retest reliability, practice effects and convergent validity of the CST, MDT and WST in 30 MS patients and 30 healthy controls. Substudy 2 examined sensitivity to MS disability in over 600 MS patients as part of their routine clinic assessment. Substudy 3 compared performance on the PST in research volunteers and clinical samples.

RESULTS

The CST, MDT and WST were shown to be reliable, valid and sensitive to MS outcomes. Performance was comparable to technician-administered testing. PST performance was poorer in the clinical sample compared with the research volunteer sample.

CONCLUSIONS

The self-administered MSPT neuroperformance modules produce reliable, objective metrics that can be used in clinical practice and support outcomes research. Published studies which require patient voluntary consent may underestimate the rate of cognitive dysfunction observed in a clinical setting.

Population-based cohort study of variation in the use of emergency cholecystectomy for benign gallbladder diseases

Background

The aims of this prospective population-based cohort study were to identify the patient and hospital characteristics associated with emergency cholecystectomy, and the influences of these in determining variations between hospitals.

Methods

Data were collected for consecutive patients undergoing cholecystectomy in acute UK and Irish hospitals between 1 March and 1 May 2014. Potential explanatory variables influencing the performance of emergency cholecystectomy were analysed by means of multilevel, multivariable logistic regression modelling using a two-level hierarchical structure with patients (level 1) nested within hospitals (level 2).

Results

Data were collected on 4744 cholecystectomies from 165 hospitals. Increasing age, lower ASA fitness grade, biliary colic, the need for further imaging (magnetic retrograde cholangiopancreatography), endoscopic interventions (endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography) and admission to a non-biliary centre significantly reduced the likelihood of an emergency cholecystectomy being performed. The multilevel model was used to calculate the probability of receiving an emergency cholecystectomy for a woman aged 40 years or over with an ASA grade of I or II and a BMI of at least 25·0 kg/m2, who presented with acute cholecystitis with an ultrasound scan showing a thick-walled gallbladder and a normal common bile duct. The mean predicted probability of receiving an emergency cholecystectomy was 0·52 (95 per cent c.i. 0·45 to 0·57). The predicted probabilities ranged from 0·02 to 0·95 across the 165 hospitals, demonstrating significant variation between hospitals.

Conclusion

Patients with similar characteristics presenting to different hospitals with acute gallbladder pathology do not receive comparable care.

Mesh migration following obturator hernia repair presenting as a bezoar inducing small intestinal obstruction

This is the first report on synthetic mesh migration following obturator hernia repair. Obturator hernias have a low incidence--with fewer than 700 published case studies to date--usually occur in elderly women and are difficult to diagnose. Since 1976, there have been no more than 29 reported cases in which synthetic materials were used in obturator hernia repair. Thus, information relevant to the surgical repair of this type of hernia is based on small numbers only. The use of synthetic mesh for the repair of obturator hernias is a recent development, and to date no complications have been reported with this type of repair. We report here on the outcome of a patient with mesh migration after obturator hernia repair. This report provides a short overview of mesh migration as a complication following the use of synthetic grafts for surgical repair.

Reach-to-grasp movements during obstacle avoidance

The transport and grip components are two controlled components of a prehensile movement. These components are coordinated so that objects of varying size and shape resting in diverse locations can be grasped easily. It has been suggested that the timing between these two components is a specified parameter, although the origin of such timing is unknown. The present study examines the interdependency of the reach and grasp components when the transport component is modified by placing an obstacle of varying height (9 cm and 11 cm) in the hand path between the starting position and the target object location. Subjects were asked to reach over a Plexiglas barrier and grasp a 2-cm dowel. To reach the object, the subject had to elevate the hand. At issue in this experiment is whether changes in hand path trajectory caused by obstacle avoidance produce corresponding changes in the kinematics of grip aperture. The findings showed that reaching in the presence of an obstacle resulted in the prolongation of most transport component time parameters except peak acceleration and a few amplitude parameters. Changes in the transport component also produced systematic prolongation in all time parameters of grip kinematics, including grip closure time. Temporal prolongation was also reflected in a significant decrease in grip opening and closing velocity; only relative time-to-peak closing velocity was maintained. Closure distance and maximum grip aperture were smaller for the obstacle conditions. Together with the observed smaller variability for the distance to peak aperture, these findings suggest that spatial localization of the hand aperture is an important prehensile movement control feature. Parameterization processes for the grip component are closely linked to those of the transport component, and their organization appears to be interdependent.

“Primatization” of Recombinant Antibodies for Immunotherapy of Human Diseases: A Macaque/Human Chimeric Antibody Against Human CD4

Immunoglobulin variable region genes from non-human primates, cynomolgus macaques, were shown to have 85%-98% homology with human immunoglobulin sequences and yet macaques are phylogenetically distant enough to respond against conserved human antigens. Immunoglobulin genes were isolated from monkeys immunized with human CD4 antigen and a human/monkey chimeric anti-CD4 antibody with 91-92% homology to human immunoglobulin framework regions was cloned and expressed. The antibody has an apparent affinity of 3.2 x 10(-11) M and exhibits potent immunosuppressive properties in vitro.

Hemodynamic events in a prospective randomized trial of propranolol versus placebo in the prevention of a first variceal hemorrhage

In a double-blind randomized trial, the hemodynamic events following the administration of propranolol (n = 51) or a placebo (n = 51) were prospectively studied in cirrhotic patients with esophageal varices. The hepatic venous pressure gradient, heart rate, and variceal size were determined at the baseline and 3, 12, and 24 months after the beginning of therapy. Baseline values were similar in both groups. At 3 months, the hepatic venous pressure gradient decreased significantly in propranolol-treated patients (from 18.1 +/- 4.2 to 15.7 +/- 3.4 mm Hg; P less than 0.05) but not in patients receiving the placebo (19.6 +/- 6.8 to 17.5 +/- 5.3 mm Hg; NS). At subsequent time intervals this gradient decreased significantly from the baseline value in both groups. Heart rate decreased significantly in the propranolol-treated group at all times (P less than 0.001). Variceal hemorrhage occurred in 13 patients (11 placebo-, 2 propranolol-treated; P less than 0.01), all of whom had a hepatic venous pressure gradient greater than 12 mm Hg. In 21 patients (14 propranolol-, 7 placebo-treated) the hepatic venous pressure gradient decreased to less than or equal to 12 mm Hg; none of them bled from esophageal varices, and their mortality rate also decreased. Because most of the bleeding events occurred during the first year (10 placebo-, 1 propranolol-treated; P less than 0.01), propranolol seems to have its protective effect during the period associated with the largest reduction in the hepatic venous pressure gradient. Because a reduction in the hepatic venous pressure gradient to less than 12 mm Hg protects from variceal bleeding and increases the rate of survival, this should be the aim of the pharmacological therapy of portal hypertension.

Synthetic pheromones that promote inter-male aggression in mice

Two volatile constituents of male mouse urine, dehydro-exo-brevicomin and 2-(sec-butyl)-dihydrothiazole, have been found active in bioassays of inter-male aggressive behavior. The two synthetic compounds act synergistically when added to castrated male urine but not when added to water, and they provoke fighting that is quantitatively and qualitatively comparable to that elicited by intact male urine.