Evaluation of the inflammation-based modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) as a prognostic and predictive biomarker in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer receiving first-line chemotherapy: a post hoc analysis of the randomized phase III XELAVIRI trial (AIO KRK0110)

BACKGROUND

The inflammation-based modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) combines serum levels of C-reactive protein and albumin and was shown to predict survival in advanced cancer. We aimed to elucidate the prognostic impact of mGPS on survival as well as its predictive value when combined with gender in unselected metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients receiving first-line chemotherapy in the randomized phase III XELAVIRI trial.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In XELAVIRI, mCRC patients were treated with either fluoropyrimidine/bevacizumab followed by additional irinotecan at first progression (sequential treatment arm; Arm A) or upfront combination of fluoropyrimidine/bevacizumab/irinotecan (intensive treatment arm; Arm B). In the present post hoc analysis, survival was evaluated with respect to the assorted mGPS categories 0, 1 or 2. Interaction between mGPS and gender was analyzed.

RESULTS

Out of 421 mCRC patients treated in XELAVIRI, 362 [119 women (32.9%) and 243 men (67.1%)] were assessable. For the entire study population a significant association between mGPS and overall survival (OS) was observed [mGPS = 0: median 28.9 months, 95% confidence interval (CI) 25.9-33.6 months; mGPS = 1: median 21.4 months, 95% CI 17.6-26.1 months; mGPS = 2: median 16.8 months, 95% CI 14.3-21.2 months; P < 0.00001]. Similar results were found when comparing progression-free survival between groups. The effect of mGPS on survival did not depend on the applied treatment regimen (P = 0.21). In female patients, a trend towards longer OS was observed in Arm A versus Arm B, with this effect being clearly more pronounced in the mGPS cohort 0 (41.6 versus 25.5 months; P = 0.056). By contrast, median OS was longer in male patients with an mGPS of 1-2 treated in Arm B versus Arm A (20.8 versus 17.4 months; P = 0.022).

CONCLUSION

We demonstrate the role of mGPS as an independent predictor of OS regardless of the treatment regimen in mCRC patients receiving first-line treatment. mGPS may help identify gender-specific subgroups that benefit more or less from upfront intensive therapy.

Impacts of Vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Variants Alpha and Delta on Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission Dynamics in Four Metropolitan Areas of the United States

To characterize Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission dynamics in each of the metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) surrounding Dallas, Houston, New York City, and Phoenix in 2020 and 2021, we extended a previously reported compartmental model accounting for effects of multiple distinct periods of non-pharmaceutical interventions by adding consideration of vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants Alpha (lineage B.1.1.7) and Delta (lineage B.1.617.2). For each MSA, we found region-specific parameterizations of the model using daily reports of new COVID-19 cases available from January 21, 2020 to October 31, 2021. In the process, we obtained estimates of the relative infectiousness of Alpha and Delta as well as their takeoff times in each MSA (the times at which sustained transmission began). The estimated infectiousness of Alpha ranged from 1.1x to 1.4x that of viral strains circulating in 2020 and early 2021. The estimated relative infectiousness of Delta was higher in all cases, ranging from 1.6x  to 2.1x. The estimated Alpha takeoff times ranged from February 1 to February 28, 2021. The estimated Delta takeoff times ranged from June 2 to June 26, 2021. Estimated takeoff times are consistent with genomic surveillance data.

Impacts of vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 variants Alpha and Delta on Coronavirus Disease 2019 transmission dynamics in four metropolitan areas of the United States

To characterize Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission dynamics in each of the metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) surrounding Dallas, Houston, New York City, and Phoenix in 2020 and 2021, we extended a previously reported compartmental model accounting for effects of multiple distinct periods of non-pharmaceutical interventions by adding consideration of vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants Alpha (lineage B.1.1.7) and Delta (lineage B.1.617.2). For each MSA, we found region-specific parameterizations of the model using daily reports of new COVID-19 cases available from January 21, 2020 to October 31, 2021. In the process, we obtained estimates of the relative infectiousness of Alpha and Delta as well as their takeoff times in each MSA (the times at which sustained transmission began). The estimated infectiousness of Alpha ranged from 1.1x to 1.4x that of viral strains circulating in 2020 and early 2021. The estimated relative infectiousness of Delta was higher in all cases, ranging from 1.6x to 2.1x. The estimated Alpha takeoff times ranged from February 1 to February 28, 2021. The estimated Delta takeoff times ranged from June 2 to June 26, 2021. Estimated takeoff times are consistent with genomic surveillance data.

One-Sentence Summary

Using a compartmental model parameterized to reproduce available reports of new Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, we quantified the impacts of vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants Alpha (lineage B.1.1.7) and Delta (lineage B.1.617.2) on regional epidemics in the metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) surrounding Dallas, Houston, New York City, and Phoenix.

Cantharidin increases the force of contraction and protein phosphorylation in isolated human atria

Cantharidin, an inhibitor of protein phosphatase 1 (PP1) and protein phosphatase 2A (PP2A), is known to increase the force of contraction and shorten the time to relaxation in human ventricular preparations. We hypothesized that cantharidin has similar positive inotropic effects in human right atrial appendage (RAA) preparations. RAA were obtained during bypass surgery performed on human patients. These trabeculae were mounted in organ baths and electrically stimulated at 1 Hz. For comparison, we studied isolated electrically stimulated left atrial (LA) preparations and isolated spontaneously beating right atrial (RA) preparations from wild-type mice. Cumulatively applied (starting at 10 to 30 µM), cantharidin exerted a positive concentration-dependent inotropic effect that plateaued at 300 µM in the RAA, LA, and RA preparations. This positive inotropic effect was accompanied by a shortening of the time to relaxation in human atrial preparations (HAPs). Notably, cantharidin did not alter the beating rate in the RA preparations. Furthermore, cantharidin (100 µM) increased the phosphorylation state of phospholamban and the inhibitory subunit of troponin I in RAA preparations, which may account for the faster relaxation observed. The generated data indicate that PP1 and/or PP2A play a functional role in human atrial contractility.

Quantification of early nonpharmaceutical interventions aimed at slowing transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in the Navajo Nation and surrounding states (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah)

During an early period of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the Navajo Nation, much like New York City, experienced a relatively high rate of disease transmission. Yet, between January and October 2020, it experienced only a single period of growth in new COVID-19 cases, which ended when cases peaked in May 2020. The daily number of new cases slowly decayed in the summer of 2020 until late September 2020. In contrast, the surrounding states of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah all experienced at least two periods of growth in the same time frame, with second surges beginning in late May to early June. Here, we investigated these differences in disease transmission dynamics with the objective of quantifying the contributions of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) (e.g., behaviors that limit disease transmission). We considered a compartmental model accounting for distinct periods of NPIs to analyze the epidemic in each of the five regions. We used Bayesian inference to estimate region-specific model parameters from regional surveillance data (daily reports of new COVID-19 cases) and to quantify uncertainty in parameter estimates and model predictions. Our results suggest that NPIs in the Navajo Nation were sustained over the period of interest, whereas in the surrounding states, NPIs were relaxed, which allowed for subsequent surges in cases. Our region-specific model parameterizations allow us to quantify the impacts of NPIs on disease incidence in the regions of interest.

Quantification of early nonpharmaceutical interventions aimed at slowing transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in the Navajo Nation and surrounding states (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah)

During an early period of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the Navajo Nation, much like New York City, experienced a relatively high rate of disease transmission. Yet, between January and October 2020, it experienced only a single period of growth in new COVID-19 cases, which ended when cases peaked in May 2020. The daily number of new cases slowly decayed in the summer of 2020 until late September 2020. In contrast, the surrounding states of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah all experienced at least two periods of growth in the same time frame, with second surges beginning in late May to early June. To investigate the causes of this difference, we used a compartmental model accounting for distinct periods of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs ) ( e.g., behaviors that limit disease transmission) to analyze the epidemic in each of the five regions. We used Bayesian inference to estimate region-specific model parameters from regional surveillance data (daily reports of new COVID-19 cases) and to quantify uncertainty in parameter estimates and model predictions. Our results suggest that NPIs in the Navajo Nation were sustained over the period of interest, whereas in the surrounding states, NPIs were relaxed, which allowed for subsequent surges in cases. Our region-specific model parameterizations allow us to quantify the impacts of NPIs on disease incidence in the regions of interest.

High-performance cavity-dumped Q-switched Alexandrite laser CW diode-pumped in double-pass configuration

We present a high-performance Alexandrite laser for LIDAR applications with repetition rates up to 20 kHz in cavity-dumped Q-switched operation continuous-wave diode-pumped in the red spectral region. With a double-pass pump configuration, short pulses with 2.8 ns duration at repetition frequencies ranging from 1 kHz to 20 kHz could be demonstrated. At 5 kHz a - to our knowledge - record pulse energy of over 500 µJ could be achieved at 755 nm in TEM₀₀. Furthermore, a stability measurement at an energy of around 350 µJ with 5 kHz showed no degradation over 150 Mega-shots. The influence of the crystal temperature on the laser performance is also investigated, first in continuous-wave and secondly in cavity-dumped Q-switched operation.

Implementation of a practical Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm in PyBioNetFit

SUMMARY

Bayesian inference in biological modeling commonly relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling of a multidimensional and non-Gaussian posterior distribution that is not analytically tractable. Here, we present the implementation of a practical MCMC method in the open-source software package PyBioNetFit (PyBNF), which is designed to support parameterization of mathematical models for biological systems. The new MCMC method, am, incorporates an adaptive move proposal distribution. For warm starts, sampling can be initiated at a specified location in parameter space and with a multivariate Gaussian proposal distribution defined initially by a specified covariance matrix. Multiple chains can be generated in parallel using a computer cluster. We demonstrate that am can be used to successfully solve real-world Bayesian inference problems, including forecasting of new Coronavirus Disease 2019 case detection with Bayesian quantification of forecast uncertainty.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

PyBNF version 1.1.9, the first stable release with am, is available at PyPI and can be installed using the pip package-management system on platforms that have a working installation of Python 3. PyBNF relies on libRoadRunner and BioNetGen for simulations (e.g. numerical integration of ordinary differential equations defined in SBML or BNGL files) and Dask.Distributed for task scheduling on Linux computer clusters. The Python source code can be freely downloaded/cloned from GitHub and used and modified under terms of the BSD-3 license (https://github.com/lanl/pybnf). Online documentation covering installation/usage is available (https://pybnf.readthedocs.io/en/latest/). A tutorial video is available on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2aRqpqFOiS4&t=63s).

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Bayesian Inference of State-Level COVID-19 Basic Reproduction Numbers across the United States

Although many persons in the United States have acquired immunity to COVID-19, either through vaccination or infection with SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 will pose an ongoing threat to non-immune persons so long as disease transmission continues. We can estimate when sustained disease transmission will end in a population by calculating the population-specific basic reproduction number ℛ0, the expected number of secondary cases generated by an infected person in the absence of any interventions. The value of ℛ0 relates to a herd immunity threshold (HIT), which is given by 1-1/ℛ0. When the immune fraction of a population exceeds this threshold, sustained disease transmission becomes exponentially unlikely (barring mutations allowing SARS-CoV-2 to escape immunity). Here, we report state-level ℛ0 estimates obtained using Bayesian inference. Maximum a posteriori estimates range from 7.1 for New Jersey to 2.3 for Wyoming, indicating that disease transmission varies considerably across states and that reaching herd immunity will be more difficult in some states than others. ℛ0 estimates were obtained from compartmental models via the next-generation matrix approach after each model was parameterized using regional daily confirmed case reports of COVID-19 from 21 January 2020 to 21 June 2020. Our ℛ0 estimates characterize the infectiousness of ancestral strains, but they can be used to determine HITs for a distinct, currently dominant circulating strain, such as SARS-CoV-2 variant Delta (lineage B.1.617.2), if the relative infectiousness of the strain can be ascertained. On the basis of Delta-adjusted HITs, vaccination data, and seroprevalence survey data, we found that no state had achieved herd immunity as of 20 September 2021.

Bayesian Inference of State-Level COVID-19 Basic Reproduction Numbers across the United States

Although many persons in the United States have acquired immunity to COVID-19, either through vaccination or infection with SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 will pose an ongoing threat to non-immune persons so long as disease transmission continues. We can estimate when sustained disease transmission will end in a population by calculating the population-specific basic reproduction number ℛ ₀ , the expected number of secondary cases generated by an infected person in the absence of any interventions. The value of ℛ ₀ relates to a herd immunity threshold (HIT), which is given by 1 - 1/ℛ ₀ . When the immune fraction of a population exceeds this threshold, sustained disease transmission becomes exponentially unlikely (barring mutations allowing SARS-CoV-2 to escape immunity). Here, we report state-level ℛ ₀ estimates obtained using Bayesian inference. Maximum a posteriori estimates range from 7.1 for New Jersey to 2.3 for Wyoming, indicating that disease transmission varies considerably across states and that reaching herd immunity will be more difficult in some states than others. ℛ ₀ estimates were obtained from compartmental models via the next-generation matrix approach after each model was parameterized using regional daily confirmed case reports of COVID-19 from 21-January-2020 to 21-June-2020. Our ℛ ₀ estimates characterize infectiousness of ancestral strains, but they can be used to determine HITs for a distinct, currently dominant circulating strain, such as SARS-CoV-2 variant Delta (lineage B.1.617.2), if the relative infectiousness of the strain can be ascertained. On the basis of Delta-adjusted HITs, vaccination data, and seroprevalence survey data, we find that no state has achieved herd immunity as of 20-September-2021.

Significance Statement

COVID-19 will continue to threaten non-immune persons in the presence of ongoing disease transmission. We can estimate when sustained disease transmission will end by calculating the population-specific basic reproduction number ℛ ₀ , which relates to a herd immunity threshold (HIT), given by 1 - 1/ℛ ₀ . When the immune fraction of a population exceeds this threshold, sustained disease transmission becomes exponentially unlikely. Here, we report state-level ℛ ₀ estimates indicating that disease transmission varies considerably across states. Our ℛ ₀ estimates can also be used to determine HITs for the Delta variant of COVID-19. On the basis of Delta-adjusted HITs, vaccination data, and serological survey results, we find that no state has yet achieved herd immunity.

Three-dimensional nanothermometry below the diffraction limit

Lanthanide-doped nanothermometers are used to measure temperature through changes in their emission characteristic with sensitivities of up to a few %/K. In contrast to their sensitivity, their spatial resolution, which is of critical importance for various applications, has not been thoroughly studied and optimized. We numerically investigated the improvement in spatial resolution of nanothermometers with a stimulated emission depletion microscopy approach. Fundamental relationships between spatial and temperature resolution were identified by using different beam parameters for the excitation and depletion beams. Our simulations predict contactless temperature measurement below the diffraction limit with temperature resolution of ±1.25K. We further studied the influence of sample thickness and position on both temperature and spatial resolution and showed the potential of three-dimensional measurements.

Daily Forecasting of Regional Epidemics of Coronavirus Disease with Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification, United States

To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policymaking, we formulated a mathematical model for coronavirus disease transmission within a regional population. This compartmental model accounts for quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, a nonexponentially distributed incubation period, asymptomatic persons, and mild and severe forms of symptomatic disease. We used Bayesian inference to calibrate region-specific models for consistency with daily reports of confirmed cases in the 15 most populous metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. We also quantified uncertainty in parameter estimates and forecasts. This online learning approach enables early identification of new trends despite considerable variability in case reporting.

Role of Cardiac A2A Receptors Under Normal and Pathophysiological Conditions

This review presents an overview of cardiac A2A-adenosine receptors The localization of A2A-AR in the various cell types that encompass the heart and the role they play in force regulation in various mammalian species are depicted. The putative signal transduction systems of A2A-AR in cells in the living heart, as well as the known interactions of A2A-AR with membrane-bound receptors, will be addressed. The possible role that the receptors play in some relevant cardiac pathologies, such as persistent or transient ischemia, hypoxia, sepsis, hypertension, cardiac hypertrophy, and arrhythmias, will be reviewed. Moreover, the cardiac utility of A2A-AR as therapeutic targets for agonistic and antagonistic drugs will be discussed. Gaps in our knowledge about the cardiac function of A2A-AR and future research needs will be identified and formulated.

Daily Forecasting of New Cases for Regional Epidemics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 with Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification

To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policy-making, we formulated a mathematical model for COVID-19 transmission within a regional population. This compartmental model accounts for quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, a non-exponentially distributed incubation period, asymptomatic individuals, and mild and severe forms of symptomatic disease. Using Bayesian inference, we have been calibrating region-specific models daily for consistency with new reports of confirmed cases from the 15 most populous metropolitan statistical areas in the United States and quantifying uncertainty in parameter estimates and predictions of future case reports. This online learning approach allows for early identification of new trends despite considerable variability in case reporting.

ARTICLE SUMMARY LINE

We report models for regional COVID-19 epidemics and use of Bayesian inference to quantify uncertainty in daily predictions of expected reporting of new cases, enabling identification of new trends in surveillance data.

Additive value of transarterial embolization to systemic sirolimus treatment in kaposiform hemangioendothelioma

Kaposiform hemangioendothelioma (KHE) is a rare vascular tumor in children, which can be accompanied by life-threatening thrombocytopenia, referred to as Kasabach-Merritt phenomenon (KMP). The mTOR inhibitor sirolimus is emerging as targeted therapy in KHE. As the sirolimus effect on KHE occurs only after several weeks, we aimed to evaluate whether additional transarterial embolization is of benefit for children with KHE and KMP. Seventeen patients with KHE and KMP acquired from 11 hospitals in Germany were retrospectively divided into two cohorts. Children being treated with adjunct transarterial embolization and systemic sirolimus, and those being treated with sirolimus without additional embolization. Bleeding grade as defined by WHO was determined for all patients. Response of the primary tumor at 6 and 12 months assessed by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), time to response of KMP defined as thrombocyte increase >150 × 10³ /μL, as well as rebound rates of both after cessation of sirolimus were compared. N = 8 patients had undergone additive embolization to systemic sirolimus therapy, sirolimus in this group was started after a mean of 6.5 ± 3 days following embolization. N = 9 patients were identified who had received sirolimus without additional embolization. Adjunct embolization induced a more rapid resolution of KMP within a median of 7 days vs 3 months; however, tumor response as well as rebound rates were similar between both groups. Additive embolization may be of value for a more rapid rescue of consumptive coagulopathy in children with KHE and KMP compared to systemic sirolimus only.

A comprehensive study of the sorption mechanism and thermodynamics of f-element sorption onto K-feldspar

The mobility of heavy metal contaminants and radionuclides in the environment is directly controlled by their interactions with charged mineral surfaces, hence an assessment of their potential toxicity, e.g. in the context of radioactive waste disposal sites, requires understanding of sorption processes on the molecular level. Here, we investigate the sorption of a variety of rare earth elements (REE) and trivalent actinides (Am, Cm) on K-feldspar using batch sorption, time-resolved laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy (TRLFS), and a surface complexation model. Initially, a reliable pK_a for K-feldspar's surface deprotonation reaction was determined as 2.5 ± 0.02 by column titration experiments, in excellent agreement with a measured pH_IEP of 2.8. Batch sorption experiments over a broad range of experimental conditions in terms of mineral grain size, pH, [M³⁺], ionic radius, solid/liquid ratio, ionic strength, and equilibration procedures were carried out to quantify macroscopic retention. The trivalent d-block element Y, early, mid, and late lanthanides (La, Eu, Nd, Lu), as well as two minor actinides (Am, Cm) were used for batch sorption experiments and showed similar pH dependent uptake behavior, underlining their chemical analogy. In parallel, spectroscopic investigations provided insight into surface speciation. Cm TRLFS spectra indicate the formation of three inner-sphere sorption complexes with increasing hydrolysis. Additionally, a ternary K-feldspar/Cm/silicate complex was found for pH > 10, and batch and spectroscopic data at low pH (<4) point to small amounts of outer sphere sorption complexes. Based on TRLFS data, batch sorption, and titration data, a generic geochemical sorption model was developed, that describes sorption edges for all investigated M³⁺/K-feldspar systems satisfactorily. The derived stability constants for the binary sorption complexes (logK_1-4 = -3.6, -7.7, -11.5, and -17.4, respectively) could successfully be used to reproduce literature data. The stability constants obtained for the surface complexes were included into the database for the Smart K_d-concept, which will further improve the safety assessment of potential repositories for radioactive waste.

Multibiomarker model to discriminate Type 1 and Type 2 myocardial infarction

Background

The discrimination of patients with type 1 myocardial infarction (T1MI) from patients with type 2 MI (T2MI) is often challenging in the emergency department. Earlier we presented a discrimination model, which based on clinical variables, as well as on troponin concentrations. In the present analyses we sought to investigate the discriminative power of 28 biomarkers in patients with T1MI and T2MI.

Methods

Patients presenting to the emergency department with symptoms suggestive of MI were recruited. The final diagnosis of all patients was adjudicated by two physicians in a blinded fashion and based on the fourth universal definition of MI. For the present analyses only patients with T1MI and T2MI were used. In total 28 biomarkers were measured in blood samples collected directly at admission. A multivariable logistic regression model for T1MI vs T2MI as the dependent variable was used and the predictors were chosen via backward step-down selection.

Results

In total 138 patients (107 T1MI and 31 T2MI) were available for the analyses. The median age of the study population was 65 years and 66.7% were males. Hypertension was present in 77.4% and dyslipidemia in 41.3%. In the multivariable model four biomarkers (apolipoprotein A-II, n-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide, copeptin and high-sensitivity troponin I) were significant discriminators between T1MI and T2MI (Table 1). Internal validation of the model via bootstrap shows a for overoptimism corrected area under the curve of 0.82.

Conclusion

Using a multibiomarker approach discrimination between T1MI and T2MI could be improved. External validation of our findings is warranted.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): Research fellowship by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft

Usefulness of troponin in selecting patients for invasive coronary angiography after cardiac surgery

Background

Great uncertainty exists about the indication for invasive coronary angiography (ICA) in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome following cardiac surgery.

Aim

The aim of this study was to define clinical criteria that best identify patients who benefit from ICA after cardiac surgery.

Methods

We performed a retrospective analysis of all patients who underwent cardiac surgery between January 2009 and May 2019 at our center. Exclusion criteria included pediatric patients as well as pacemaker, TAVR and LVAD implantation and heart transplantation procedures. The primary outcome was usefulness of ICA as defined by consequent PCI or re-operation due to ICA findings. ECG changes (ST-elevations) and high-sensitivity Troponin I (hsTrop I) were analyzed.

Results

48,136 patients were screened and after applying exclusion criteria 29,359 patients were finally included in the analysis (mean age 67.8±11.0 years, 31.1% females, Euroscore II 5.14±8.9%). A total of 1,171 patients (4%) underwent post-op ICA. The primary outcome occurred in 440 patients (1.5%) of which 290 underwent consequent PCI and 214 underwent consequent re-operation. Baseline characteristics are shown in table 1. Unadjusted analyses did not identify significant differences in the level of cardiac biomarkers between useful-ICA and unuseful-ICA groups.

In multivariate regression analysis, only ST-elevation on ECG predicted the primary outcome (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.003–1.76).

Dichotomizing hsTrop I concentrations by applying the guideline-specified cut-off (&gt;70x URL) resulted in correct classification of useful-ICA patients in 95.7%. However, the false-positive rate was also extremely high (83.6%) with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 1.6% and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 99.6% (accuracy 17.5%).

Using area under the curve (ROC) analysis following optimal cut-off values for hsTrop I were identified: in CABG patients a cut-off value of &gt;650x URL (corresponding absolute value 17000 ng/L) was defined with a corresponding sensitivity of 83.3%, specificity of 83.6%, PPV of 8.9% and NPV of 99.6% (accuracy 83.6%). In non-CABG patients (i.e. valve or aortic procedures), the cut-off was about twice as high as that for CABG patients (1,350x URL or 35,000 ng/L) with a corresponding sensitivity of 84.1%, specificity of 89.2%, PPV of 5.9% and NPV of 99.9% (accuracy 89.1%).

Conclusion

Our study demonstrates that currently recommended cut-off concentrations of high-sensitivity troponin are not useful for guiding clinical decision-making in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome following cardiac surgery, while substantially higher cut-off values might be useful. Those cut-off values critically depend on the type of cardiac surgery performed (CABG vs. non-CABG).

Troponin_Curves post-op

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: None

Discrimination of myocardial infarction and myocardial injury using a multibiomarker approach

Background

In the Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction (MI) myocardial injury was introduced as a specific diagnosis in patients with elevated troponin concentrations, but without evidence of acute myocardial ischemia. However, their differentiation within the acute setting might be challenging. Therefore, we sought to investigate a multibiomarker panel in these patients and determine the discriminative capacity to differentiation MI from myocardial injury.

Methods

We use a cohorts of acute patients presenting to the emergency department. All final diagnoses were adjudicated by two physicians in a blinded fashion and based on the fourth universal definition of MI. In case of disagreement a third physician referred. For the present analyses only patients diagnosed with MI or myocardial injury were used. A panel of 28 biomarkers was measured in blood samples collected directly at admission. Spearman correlations were calculated. A multivariable logistic regression model using MI as the dependent variable was used and the predictors were chosen via backward step-back selection. Odds ratios (OR) were calculated for each predictor.

Results

We included 359 patients; 138 were diagnosed as having MI and 221 has having myocardial injury. The median age of the study population was 73 years and 59.1% were males. Hypertension was diagnosed in 80.4%, dyslipidemia in 45.4% and diabetes in 19.0%.The biomarker panel showed a wide range of correlations (Figure 1). In the multivariable model five logarithmized biomarkers (N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide [OR 0.62], pulmonary and activation-regulated chemokine [OR 0.51], tumor-necrosis-factor-receptor 2 [OR 2.22], copeptin [OR 1.59] and high-sensitivity troponin I [OR 1.80]) were significant discriminators between MI and myocardial injury. Internal validation of the model via bootstrap shows a for overoptimism corrected area under the curve of 0.84.

Conclusion

In the multivariable model five biomarkers were discriminators between MI and myocardial injury.

Spearman correlations

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): Research fellowship by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft

Experimental and numerical study of interlock requirements for high-power EYDFAs

In this work, we studied the interlock requirements in a seed failure scenario for Er³⁺:Yb³⁺ doped fiber amplifiers (EYDFAs) pumped with high intensities in the MWcm^-2 range at 9XX nm. We fed a time-dependent FEM-tool with the data from backwards directed amplified spontaneous emission (ASE) transients of different commercially available core-pumped single-mode fibers. In the FEM-tool, the Er³⁺:Yb³⁺ system is defined as a bi-directional energy transfer process and described by the corresponding rate equations. The power evolution of the pump, seed, and ASE signal is computed by differential equations taking into account the transient population densities of the relevant energy levels. With the model, we computed the temporal evolution of the corresponding energy levels after a seeder failure to take place within tens to hundreds of µs and calculated the associated gain. The fibers under test provide a critical total gain of 30 dB after ∼ 80 µs within the Yb³⁺ band and after ∼300 µs within the Er³⁺ band. This time decreases with increasing pump power and doping concentration. The results can be extrapolated to high-power cladding-pumped EYDFAs to meet the challenging requirements of engineering-level systems.

Daily Forecasting of New Cases for Regional Epidemics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 with Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification

To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policy-making, we formulated two types of mathematical models for COVID-19 transmission within a regional population. One is a fitting function that can be calibrated to reproduce an epidemic curve with two timescales (e.g., fast growth and slow decay). The other is a compartmental model that accounts for quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing, a non-exponentially distributed incubation period, asymptomatic individuals, and mild and severe forms of symptomatic disease. Using Bayesian inference, we have been calibrating our models daily for consistency with new reports of confirmed cases from the 15 most populous metropolitan statistical areas in the United States and quantifying uncertainty in parameter estimates and predictions of future case reports. This online learning approach allows for early identification of new trends despite considerable variability in case reporting. We infer new significant upward trends for five of the metropolitan areas starting between 19-April-2020 and 12-June-2020.

THU0053 CONTRIBUTION OF DEFECTIVE NON-APOPTOTIC FAS SIGNALING TO IMMUNE DYSREGULATION IN AUTOIMMUNE LYMPHOPROLIFERATIVE SYNDROME (ALPS)

Background:

ALPS patients show impaired generation of humoral memory for T independent antigens whereas they generate memory for self-antigens due to impaired FAS-dependent removal of autoreactive germinal center B cells. It is known that FAS signaling via caspase activation results in cell apoptosis. However, FAS ligation may also initiate or modulate non-apoptotic signaling as shown for example by its ability to activate NF-κB. Recent data implicate a regulatory role of FAS in the modulation of mTOR signaling in ALPS double-negative T cells. Moreover, a recently described C194V FAS mutation disturbs its post-translational modification leading to impaired apoptosis induction while non-apoptotic signalling is still intact. Consequently, C194V FAS protects from the autoimmune phenotype in the murine ALPS system. This supports the view that FAS may prevent autoimmunity with other mechanisms than inducing apoptosis.

Objectives:

We hypothesize that FAS mutations impair this modulatory signaling, leading to hyper-activation of B cells. Therefore we aim to investigate non apoptotic FAS signaling in B cells derived from healthy individuals and ALPS patients.

Methods:

We studied resting and activated B cells in ALPS patients in presence or absence of FAS ligand by flow cytometry analysing relevant molecules to the CD40 signaling pathway. We used mass cytometry to perform functional phenotyping of B cells isolated from secondary lymphoid organs. Proteomic studies were performed to identify potential signaling circuits and RNA sequencing to study the consequences of FAS signaling on B cell fate.

Results:

In CD40L activated B cells, FAS signaling results in specific modulation of the mTOR signaling pathway. This modulation is absent in ALPS derived B cells. In line with these data germinal center B cells and plasmablast from secondary lymphoid organs of ALPS patients show hyperactive mTOR signaling pathway. Proteomic studies identify a circuit that links FAS to the phosphatase PTEN via DAXX and the deubiquitinase USP7.

Conclusion:

We describe a new role of FAS in the regulation of B cell activation. Defects in FAS signaling in ALPS contribute to dysregulation of the mTOR signaling pathway and disturbed B cell development.

Disclosure of Interests:

None declared

[Malignant tumors of the skull base]

Malignant skull base tumors consist of a heterogeneous group of malignancies that can be divided into primary and secondary (metastatic) skull base tumors. In addition, according their anatomical location, they can be further divided into tumors of the anterior, middle, or posterior cranial fossa. Although malignant skull base tumors do not rigorously respect anatomical borders, their anatomical occurrence can potentially be helpful for possible differential diagnosis. This article is focused on the most common malignant tumors of the skull base and their imaging and clinical presentations.

P4576Prognostic value of high-sensitivity troponin I measured by two assays in patients presenting with suspected myocardial infarction

Background

Troponin is the gold-standard biomarker for diagnosing acute myocardial infarction (AMI). High-sensitivity assayed troponin has furthermore proven to be a promising biomarker for the prediction of future adverse cardiovascular events.

Objective

Aim of the current study was to assess and compare the prognostic value of a single troponin I measurement in patients with suspected AMI analysed by a novel high-sensitive Troponin I (hs-TnI) assay, promising detection of very low troponin I plasma levels, as well as by a well-established hs-TnI assay.

Methods

Data was derived from two prospective studies of patients presenting with suspected AMI to the emergency department. Hs-TnI was measured in a total of 2,312 patients using both a novel hs-TnI assay (1; Singulex Clarity cTnI) and a widely applied and approved hs-TnI assay (2; Abbott Diagnostics, ARCHITECT i1000SR). The prognostic impact for overall mortality of both hs-TnI assays was assessed in the total patient cohort as well as in the subgroups of patients with AMI (n=498) and without AMI (n=1,813). Kaplan-Meier analyses stratified by hs-TnI tertiles in each subgroup were performed. Moreover, prognostic impacts of both hs-TnI assays were analysed in a multiple adjusted cox regression model. We compared the performance of both hs-TnI assays in predicting adverse outcome using c-statistics. Median follow up time was 2.4 years.

Results

Patients with AMI presented with significantly higher hs-TnI values on admission. Unadjusted Kaplan-Meier analysis survival curves in the entire study population (Figure 1) as well as in the non-AMI subgroup indicated a significantly higher event-rate in the third tertiles of both hs-TnI assays for overall mortality. In contrast, irrespective of the used assay we found no association between troponin I plasma levels and overall mortality in the AMI group. Cox regression models revealed significant associations between hs-TnI and overall mortality in the entire study cohort (1: HR 1.17 [1.10–1.25], p<0.001; 2: HR 1.18 [1.11–1.26], p<0.001) and in the non-AMI subgroup (1: HR 1.39 [1.21–1.6], p<0.001; 2: 1.49 [1.28–1.74], p<0.001), but no significant association in the AMI subgroup (1: HR 1.02 [0.91–1.13], p=0.79; 2: 1.03 [0.93–1.3], p=0.55). The addition of hs-TnI to cardiovascular risk factors for the prediction of overall mortality led to a similar increment in the c-index by both hs-TnI assays of 0.014; p=0.034 (1) and 0.015; p=0.037 (2), respectively.

Figure 1. Overall mortality

Conclusion

Hs-TnI assayed on admission is an independent predictor of adverse outcome beyond conventional risk factors in patients presenting to the emergency department with suspected but ruled-out diagnosis of AMI. In patients with the established diagnosis of AMI hs-TnI is not predictive for adverse outcome. Our findings demonstrate the potential role of hs-TnI as a biomarker for risk prediction. Both assessed hs-TnI assays performed equally in predicting adverse events.

P1642High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I and NT-proBNP and their relationship to heart failure in the European BiomarCaRE population

Aims

Heart failure (HF) is an increasingly important contributor to the overall burden of cardiovascular disease in the population. We aimed to determine the distribution of the cardiac biomarkers high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) and N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentrations across the European population to characterize the association with incident HF.

Methods and results

Based on the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE)-project, we analysed data of 48,455 individuals from four prospective population-based cohort studies (DanMONICA, FINRISK, Moli-Sani, Northern Sweden MONICA study) across Europe with a maximum follow-up of 27 years. The median age of the participants was 50.7 years (25th percentile: 40.0 years, 75th percentile: 61.7 years) and 49.1% (25,146) were men. Considered endpoints were incident HF and all-cause mortality. The median follow-up time for occurrence of HF was 6.61 (6.55; 6.66) years. We found that cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs), especially diabetes with HR of 2.11 (95% CI 1.8, 2.5) and smoking status with HR of 1.79 (95% CI 1.59, 2.1) (Figure 1) were associated with incident HF. Furthermore, beyond the CVRFs, elevated hs-cTnI and NT-proBNP concentrations contributed to risk of HF in the general population with HR of 1.49 (95% CI 1.21, 1.9) and HR of 2.37 (95% CI 1.97, 3.0) respectively. As a cut-off value to select individuals, who would benefit most from preventive strategies, a hs-cTnI concentration of 2.8 ng/L was calculated using the optimal cut-off methodology by Contal and O'Quigley in CSDA 1999.

Hazard ratio for incident HF

Conclusion

In our large population-based cohort, hs-cTnI and NT-proBNP were independently associated with incident HF. Use of biomarkers for HF screening thus may help to select those individuals in the general population who would benefit most from preventive strategies. Based on the cut-off value future studies are needed to evaluate therapeutic options.

On inotropic effects of UTP in the human heart

Uridine 5'-triphosphate (UTP) exerts a positive inotropic effect (PIE) in isolated electrically driven isolated right atrial trabeculae carneae from patients undergoing heart surgery. This review discusses some aspects of the current knowledge on the putative receptor(s) involved and the potential biochemical transduction steps leading to the PIE.

Initial Characterization of Transgenic Mice Overexpressing Human Histamine H2 Receptors

In an integrative approach, we studied the role of histamine H₂ receptors in the mouse heart. We noted that histamine, added cumulatively to the organ bath, failed to affect the force of contraction in left atrial preparations and did not change spontaneous heart rate in right atrial preparations from wild-type mice. By contrast, in the same preparations from mice that overexpressed the human H₂ receptor in a cardiac-specific way, histamine exerted concentration- and time-dependent positive inotropic and positive chronotropic effects. Messenger RNA of the human H₂ receptor was only detected in transgenic mice. Likewise, immunohistology and autoradiography only gave signals in transgenic but not in wild-type cardiac preparations. Similarly, a positive inotropic and positive chronotropic effect was observed with histamine in echocardiography of living transgenic mice and isolated perfused hearts (Langendorff preparation). Phosphorylation of phospholamban was increased in atrial and ventricular preparations from transgenic mice, but not in wild-type animals. The effects of histamine were mimicked by dimaprit and amthamine and antagonized by cimetidine. In summary, we generated a new model to study the physiologic and pathophysiologic cardiac role of the human H₂ receptor.

High non-specific binding of the β1-selective radioligand 2-125I-ICI-H

Aim: As results of cardiac biopsies suggest, myocardial β1-adrenoceptor density is reduced in patients with chronic heart failure. However, changes in cardiac β2-adrenoceptors vary. With suitable radiopharmaceuticals single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and positron emission tomography (PET) offer the opportunity to assess β-adrenoceptors non-invasively. Among the novel racemic analogues of the established β1-selective adrenoceptor antagonist ICI 89.406 the iodinated 2-I-ICI-H showed high affinity and selectivity to β1-adrenoceptors in murine ventricular membranes. The aim of this study was its evaluation as a putative sub-type selective β1-adrenergic radioligand in cardiac imaging. Methods: Competition studies in vitro and in vivo were used to investigate the kinetics of 2-I-ICI-H binding to cardiac β-adrenoceptors in mice and rats. In addition, the radiosynthesis of 2-125I-ICI-H from the silylated precursor 2-SiMe3-ICI-H was established. The specific activity was 80 GBq/µmol, the radiochemical yield ranged from 70 to 80%.

Results: The unlabelled compound 2-I-ICI-H showed high β1-selectivity and -affinity in the in vitro competition studies. In vivo biodistribution studies apparently showed low affinity to cardiac β-adrenoceptors. The radiolabelled counterpart 2-125I-ICI-H showed a high degree of non-specific binding in vitro and no specific binding to cardiac β1-adrenoceptors in vivo. Conclusion: Because of its high non-specific binding 2-125I-ICI-H is no suitable radiotracer for imaging in vivo.

Myopathie der Labrador Retriever: neuromuskuläre Veränderungen bei kranken und klinisch gesunden Hunden

Gegenstand und Ziel: Die erbliche Myopathie der Labrador Retriever (LM) ist eine autosomal rezessive Krankheit, die bei schwarzen und gelben Tieren beiderlei Geschlechts und unterschiedlichen Alters vorkommt. Um der Frage nachzugehen, welche Rolle die LM in der hiesigen Labradorpopulation spielt, wurden seit 1998 am Institut für Neuropathologie der Universität Düsseldorf Muskel-und Nervenbiopsien von 121 Labrador Retrievern untersucht. Hunde: Die Tiere gehörten zu zwei Untersuchungsgruppen. Gruppe I (Einsendungen) umfasste 63 Labrador Retriever unterschiedlicher Herkunft aus Deutschland, Schweiz, Italien und Portugal mit Symptomen einer Myopathie. Gruppe II (Zuchttiere): Im Rahmen einer genetischen Studie wurden 58 miteinander verwandte Labrador Retriever aus einer Zucht in der Schweiz untersucht, nachdem dort bei zwei Welpen LM nachgewiesen worden war. Ergebnisse: Gruppe I: 17/63 (27%) hatten eine degenerative Myopathie vom Typ der Labrador-Myopathie, 8/63 (13%) metabolisch-mitochondriale Veränderungen, 33/63 (52%) andere (überwiegend neurogene oder entzündliche) Myopathien und bei 5/63 (8%) wurden keine pathologischen Veränderungen in Muskel und/oder Nerv nachgewiesen. Gruppe II: Zwar hatten nur sieben Tiere der Zucht klinische Symptome, doch wies die Mehrzahl morphologisch und histochemisch nachweisbare neuromuskuläre Veränderungen auf, nämlich 37/58 (64%) solche vom Typ der LM, darunter auch die Eltern und die sieben Geschwister der beiden Welpen, und 11/58 (19%) vorherrschend metabolisch-mitochondriale Veränderungen. Schlußfolgerungen: Die vorliegende Untersuchung zeigt, dass (a) die Verbreitung der erblichen Myopathie und deren Erfassung ein ernst zu nehmendes Problem beim Labrador Retriever darstellt und (b) neben der »klassischen« erblichen Typ-2-Myopathie der Labrador Retriever möglicherweise noch eine zweite, metabolisch-mitochondriale Form der Myopathie besteht, die Ähnlichkeiten mit einer anstrengungsabhängigen Myopathie bei Labrador Retrievern in den USA aufweist.

Current treatment procedures for civilian gunshot wounds

INTRODUCTION

This work provides an overview of the incidence of gunshot wounds during peace conditions in a civilian population and aims to assess the principles of their treatment.

METHOD

We evaluated a total of 104 patients with gunshot wounds with an average age of 38.7 years (range 1871). 84 men (80.8%) and 20 women (19.2%) were involved. The head was affected 7 times (6.7%). Out of those, penetrating injury occurred only once (1.0%). The throat was hit three times (2.9%). The chest was injured 15 times (14.4%), penetrating injury at this site was observed in 10 cases (9.6%). In five cases the lungs were affected and the heart once. Gastric injury occurred 13 times, penetration into the peritoneal cavity occurred seven times (6.7%). The intestine was injured five times, the liver three times and the gall-bladder once. Limb injury was present in 66 (63.5%) cases and in 19 of those, the injury was associated with a fracture. In 50 cases (48.1%), the patient was attacked by another person. 45 patients (43.3%) injured themselves unintentionally, five patients (4.8%) were injured in a suicidal attempt and four (3.8%) were accidentally shot by someone else. The weapons used were: pistol in 57 (54.8%) cases, air rifle in 20 cases (19.2%), a rifle in 10 cases (9.6%), two patients (1.9%) were injured with a detonator and one (1.0%) with an assault rifle. In 14 cases (13.5%), the type of firearm used was not established.

RESULTS

Surgical treatment was indicated in all cases. The first step was always a thorough wound irrigation. Single surgical treatment was performed in 48 cases (46.2%) while the other 56 patients (53.8%) required multiple surgeries. Specialized surgical procedures were performed in a total of 30 cases: seven laparotomies, five thoracotomies, five fracture stabilizations using external fixator, four amputations of limbs, two intramedullary osteosyntheses, two stabilizations with the use of Kirchner wires, two vascular surgeries, one craniotomy and one suture of a peripheral nerve. Complications of healing were not frequent: wound infection was observed in two cases (1.9%), wound dehiscence in one case (1.0%), osteomyelitis in two cases (1.9%), nonunion of the fracture (1.0 %) occurred once and in one case (1.0%), pulmonary embolism was diagnosed which was not fatal.

CONCLUSION

Consistent debridement, fasciotomy, and complete drainage of the wound are only indicated in deep gunshot wounds. A surgical revision of the abdominal cavity is indicated for all penetrating abdominal gunshot injuries. The watch-and-wait approach with surgical wound management and hospitalization is only allowed for unambiguously non-penetrating abdominal injuries. Complications of gunshot wound healing in civilian settings are not common and are most often infectious. Key words: gunshot wound - civilian settings surgical treatment.