Investigating macroecological patterns in coarse-grained microbial communities using the stochastic logistic model of growth

The structure and diversity of microbial communities are intrinsically hierarchical due to the shared evolutionary history of their constituents. This history is typically captured through taxonomic assignment and phylogenetic reconstruction, sources of information that are frequently used to group microbes into higher levels of organization in experimental and natural communities. Connecting community diversity to the joint ecological dynamics of the abundances of these groups is a central problem of community ecology. However, how microbial diversity depends on the scale of observation at which groups are defined has never been systematically examined. Here, we used a macroecological approach to quantitatively characterize the structure and diversity of microbial communities among disparate environments across taxonomic and phylogenetic scales. We found that measures of biodiversity at a given scale can be consistently predicted using a minimal model of ecology, the Stochastic Logistic Model of growth (SLM). This result suggests that the SLM is a more appropriate null-model for microbial biodiversity than alternatives such as the Unified Neutral Theory of Biodiversity. Extending these within-scale results, we examined the relationship between measures of biodiversity calculated at different scales (e.g. genus vs. family), an empirical pattern previously evaluated in the context of the Diversity Begets Diversity (DBD) hypothesis (Madi et al., 2020). We found that the relationship between richness estimates at different scales can be quantitatively predicted assuming independence among community members, demonstrating that the DBD can be sufficiently explained using the SLM as a null model of ecology. Contrastingly, only by including correlations between the abundances of community members (e.g. as the consequence of interactions) can we predict the relationship between estimates of diversity at different scales. The results of this study characterize novel microbial patterns across scales of organization and establish a sharp demarcation between recently proposed macroecological patterns that are not and are affected by ecological interactions.

Metacommunity structure preserves genome diversity in the presence of gene-specific selective sweeps under moderate rates of horizontal gene transfer

The horizontal transfer of genes is fundamental for the eco-evolutionary dynamics of microbial communities, such as oceanic plankton, soil, and the human microbiome. In the case of an acquired beneficial gene, classic population genetics would predict a genome-wide selective sweep, whereby the genome spreads clonally within the community and together with the beneficial gene, removing genome diversity. Instead, several sources of metagenomic data show the existence of "gene-specific sweeps", whereby a beneficial gene spreads across a bacterial community, maintaining genome diversity. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain this process, including the decreasing gene flow between ecologically distant populations, frequency-dependent selection from linked deleterious allelles, and very high rates of horizontal gene transfer. Here, we propose an additional possible scenario grounded in eco-evolutionary principles. Specifically, we show by a mathematical model and simulations that a metacommunity where species can occupy multiple patches, acting together with a realistic (moderate) HGT rate, helps maintain genome diversity. Assuming a scenario of patches dominated by single species, our model predicts that diversity only decreases moderately upon the arrival of a new beneficial gene, and that losses in diversity can be quickly restored. We explore the generic behaviour of diversity as a function of three key parameters, frequency of insertion of new beneficial genes, migration rates and horizontal transfer rates.Our results provides a testable explanation for how diversity can be maintained by gene-specific sweeps even in the absence of high horizontal gene transfer rates.

Environmental fluctuations explain the universal decay of species-abundance correlations with phylogenetic distance

Multiple ecological forces act together to shape the composition of microbial communities. Phyloecology approaches-which combine phylogenetic relationships between species with community ecology-have the potential to disentangle such forces but are often hard to connect with quantitative predictions from theoretical models. On the other hand, macroecology, which focuses on statistical patterns of abundance and diversity, provides natural connections with theoretical models but often neglects interspecific correlations and interactions. Here, we propose a unified framework combining both such approaches to analyze microbial communities. In particular, by using both cross-sectional and longitudinal metagenomic data for species abundances, we reveal the existence of an empirical macroecological law establishing that correlations in species-abundance fluctuations across communities decay from positive to null values as a function of phylogenetic dissimilarity in a consistent manner across ecologically distinct microbiomes. We formulate three variants of a mechanistic model-each relying on alternative ecological forces-that lead to radically different predictions. From these analyses, we conclude that the empirically observed macroecological pattern can be quantitatively explained as a result of shared population-independent fluctuating resources, i.e., environmental filtering and not as a consequence of, e.g., species competition. Finally, we show that the macroecological law is also valid for temporal data of a single community and that the properties of delayed temporal correlations can be reproduced as well by the model with environmental filtering.

Universality of evolutionary trajectories under arbitrary forms of self-limitation and competition

The assumption of constant population size is central in population genetics. It led to a large body of results that is robust to modeling choices and that has proven successful to understand evolutionary dynamics. In reality, allele frequencies and population size are both determined by the interaction between a population and the environment. Relaxing the constant-population assumption has two big drawbacks. It increases the technical difficulty of the analysis, and it requires specifying a mechanism for the saturation of the population size, possibly making the results contingent on model details. Here we develop a framework that encompasses a great variety of systems with an arbitrary mechanism for population growth limitation. By using techniques based on scale separation for stochastic processes, we are able to calculate analytically properties of evolutionary trajectories, such as the fixation probability. Remarkably, these properties assume a universal form with respect to our framework, which depends on only three parameters related to the intergeneration timescale, the invasion fitness, and the carrying capacity of the strains. In other words, different systems, such as Lotka-Volterra or a chemostat model (contained in our framework), share the same evolutionary outcomes after a proper remapping of their parameters. An important and surprising consequence of our results is that the direction of selection can be inverted, with a population evolving to reach lower values of invasion fitness.

Stable cooperation emerges in stochastic multiplicative growth

Understanding the evolutionary stability of cooperation is a central problem in biology, sociology, and economics. There exist only a few known mechanisms that guarantee the existence of cooperation and its robustness to cheating. Here, we introduce a mechanism for the emergence of cooperation in the presence of fluctuations. We consider agents whose wealth changes stochastically in a multiplicative fashion. Each agent can share part of her wealth as a public good, which is equally distributed among all the agents. We show that, when agents operate with long-time horizons, cooperation produces an advantage at the individual level, as it effectively screens agents from the deleterious effect of environmental fluctuations.

Intrinsic Dimension Estimation for Discrete Metrics

Real-world datasets characterized by discrete features are ubiquitous: from categorical surveys to clinical questionnaires, from unweighted networks to DNA sequences. Nevertheless, the most common unsupervised dimensional reduction methods are designed for continuous spaces, and their use for discrete spaces can lead to errors and biases. In this Letter we introduce an algorithm to infer the intrinsic dimension (ID) of datasets embedded in discrete spaces. We demonstrate its accuracy on benchmark datasets, and we apply it to analyze a metagenomic dataset for species fingerprinting, finding a surprisingly small ID, of order 2. This suggests that evolutive pressure acts on a low-dimensional manifold despite the high dimensionality of sequences' space.

Protein degradation sets the fraction of active ribosomes at vanishing growth

Growing cells adopt common basic strategies to achieve optimal resource allocation under limited resource availability. Our current understanding of such “growth laws” neglects degradation, assuming that it occurs slowly compared to the cell cycle duration. Here we argue that this assumption cannot hold at slow growth, leading to important consequences. We propose a simple framework showing that at slow growth protein degradation is balanced by a fraction of “maintenance” ribosomes. Consequently, active ribosomes do not drop to zero at vanishing growth, but as growth rate diminishes, an increasing fraction of active ribosomes performs maintenance. Through a detailed analysis of compiled data, we show that the predictions of this model agree with data from E. coli and S. cerevisiae. Intriguingly, we also find that protein degradation increases at slow growth, which we interpret as a consequence of active waste management and/or recycling. Our results highlight protein turnover as an underrated factor for our understanding of growth laws across kingdoms.

The idea that simple quantitative relationships relate cell physiology to cellular composition dates back to the 1950s, but the recent years saw a leap in our understanding of such “growth laws”, with relevant implications regarding the interdependence between growth, metabolism and biochemical networks. However, recent works on nutrient-limited growth mainly focused on laboratory conditions that are favourable to growth. Thus, our current mathematical understanding of the growth laws neglects protein degradation, under the argument that it occurs slowly compared to the timescale of the cell cycle. Instead, at slow growth the timescales of mass loss from protein degradation and dilution become comparable. In this work, we propose that protein degradation shapes the quantitative relationships between ribosome allocation and growth rate, and determines a fraction of ribosomes that do not contribute to growth and need to remain active to balance degradation.

The stochastic logistic model with correlated carrying capacities reproduces beta-diversity metrics of microbial communities

The large taxonomic variability of microbial community composition is a consequence of the combination of environmental variability, mediated through ecological interactions, and stochasticity. Most of the analysis aiming to infer the biological factors determining this difference in community structure start by quantifying how much communities are similar in their composition, trough beta-diversity metrics. The central role that these metrics play in microbial ecology does not parallel with a quantitative understanding of their relationships and statistical properties. In particular, we lack a framework that reproduces the empirical statistical properties of beta-diversity metrics. Here we take a macroecological approach and introduce a model to reproduce the statistical properties of community similarity. The model is based on the statistical properties of individual communities and on a single tunable parameter, the correlation of species’ carrying capacities across communities, which sets the difference of two communities. The model reproduces quantitatively the empirical values of several commonly-used beta-diversity metrics, as well as the relationships between them. In particular, this modeling framework naturally reproduces the negative correlation between overlap and dissimilarity, which has been observed in both empirical and experimental communities and previously related to the existence of universal features of community dynamics. In this framework, such correlation naturally emerges due to the effect of random sampling.

Several biological and ecological forces shape the composition of microbial communities. But also contingency and stochasticity play an important role. Comparing communities, identifying which conditions are similar in communities with similar species composition, allows to identify which forces shape their structure. Here we introduce a modeling framework which reproduces the statistical features of community similarity. We identify a single relevant parameter that captures in a single number the multidimensional nature of similarity in community composition. These results set the basis for a quantitative, and predicting, theory of the statistical properties of microbial communities.

ppGpp is a bacterial cell size regulator

Growth and division are central to cell size. Bacteria achieve size homeostasis by dividing when growth has added a constant size since birth, termed the adder principle, by unknown mechanisms.^1,2 Growth is well known to be regulated by guanosine tetraphosphate (ppGpp), which controls diverse processes from ribosome production to metabolic enzyme activity and replication initiation and whose absence or excess can induce stress, filamentation, and small growth-arrested cells.^3-6 These observations raise unresolved questions about the relation between ppGpp and size homeostasis mechanisms during normal exponential growth. Here, to untangle effects of ppGpp and nutrients, we gained control of cellular ppGpp by inducing the synthesis and hydrolysis enzymes RelA and Mesh1. We found that ppGpp not only exerts control over the growth rate but also over cell division and thus the steady state cell size. In response to changes in ppGpp level, the added size already establishes its new constant value while the growth rate still adjusts, aided by accelerated or delayed divisions. Moreover, the magnitude of the added size and resulting steady-state birth size correlate consistently with the ppGpp level, rather than with the growth rate, which results in cells of different size that grow equally fast. Our findings suggest that ppGpp serves as a key regulator that coordinates cell size and growth control.

Local stability properties of complex, species-rich soil food webs with functional block structure

Ecologists have long debated the properties that confer stability to complex, species-rich ecological networks. Species-level soil food webs are large and structured networks of central importance to ecosystem functioning. Here, we conducted an analysis of the stability properties of an up-to-date set of theoretical soil food web models that account both for realistic levels of species richness and the most recent views on the topological structure (who is connected to whom) of these food webs. The stability of the network was best explained by two factors: strong correlations between interaction strengths and the blocked, nonrandom trophic structure of the web. These two factors could stabilize our model food webs even at the high levels of species richness that are typically found in soil, and that would make random systems very unstable. Also, the stability of our soil food webs is well-approximated by the cascade model. This result suggests that stability could emerge from the hierarchical structure of the functional organization of the web. Our study shows that under the assumption of equilibrium and small perturbations, theoretical soil food webs possess a topological structure that allows them to be complex yet more locally stable than their random counterpart. In particular, results strongly support the general hypothesis that the stability of rich and complex soil food webs is mostly driven by correlations in interaction strength and the organization of the soil food web into functional groups. The implication is that in real-world food web, any force disrupting the functional structure and distribution pattern of interaction strengths (i.e., energy fluxes) of the soil food webs will destabilize the dynamics of the system, leading to species extinction and major changes in the relative abundances of species.

A macroecological description of alternative stable states reproduces intra- and inter-host variability of gut microbiome

The most fundamental questions in microbial ecology concern the diversity and variability of communities. Their composition varies widely across space and time, as a result of a nontrivial combination of stochastic and deterministic processes. The interplay between nonlinear community dynamics and environmental fluctuations determines the rich statistical structure of community variability. We analyze long time series of individual human gut microbiomes and compare intra- and intercommunity dissimilarity under a macroecological framework. We show that most taxa have large but stationary fluctuations over time, while a minority of taxa display rapid changes in average abundance that cluster in time, suggesting the presence of alternative stable states. We disentangle interindividual variability in a stochastic component and a deterministic one, the latter recapitulated by differences in carrying capacities. Last, by combining environmental fluctuations and alternative stable states, we introduce a model that quantitatively predicts the statistical properties of both intra- and interindividual community variability, therefore summarizing variation in a unique macroecological framework.

Heavy-tailed abundance distributions from stochastic Lotka-Volterra models

Microbial communities found in nature are composed of many rare species and few abundant ones, as reflected by their heavy-tailed abundance distributions. How a large number of species can coexist in those complex communities and why they are dominated by rare species is still not fully understood. We show how heavy-tailed distributions arise as an emergent property from large communities with many interacting species in population-level models. To do so, we rely on generalized Lotka-Volterra models for which we introduce a global maximal capacity. This maximal capacity accounts for the fact that communities are limited by available resources and space. In a parallel ad hoc approach, we obtain heavy-tailed abundance distributions from logistic models, without interactions, through specific distributions of the parameters. We expect both mechanisms, interactions between many species and specific parameter distributions, to be relevant to explain the observed heavy tails.

Macroecological laws describe variation and diversity in microbial communities

How the coexistence of many species is maintained is a fundamental and unresolved question in ecology. Coexistence is a puzzle because we lack a mechanistic understanding of the variation in species presence and abundance. Whether variation in ecological communities is driven by deterministic or random processes is one of the most controversial issues in ecology. Here, I study the variation of species presence and abundance in microbial communities from a macroecological standpoint. I identify three macroecological laws that quantitatively characterize the fluctuation of species abundance across communities and over time. Using these three laws, one can predict species' presence and absence, diversity, and commonly studied macroecological patterns. I show that a mathematical model based on environmental stochasticity, the stochastic logistic model, quantitatively predicts the three macroecological laws, as well as non-stationary properties of community dynamics.

Models for large ecological communities—a random matrix approach

Lotka and Volterra were among the first to attempt to mathematize the dynamics of interacting populations. While their work had a profound influence on ecology, leading to many of the results that were covered in the preceding chapters, their approach is difficult to generalize to the case of many interacting species. When the number of species in a community is sufficiently large, there is little hope of obtaining analytical results by carefully studying the system of dynamical equations describing their interactions. Here, we introduce an approach based on the theory of random matrices that exploits the very large number of species to derive cogent mathematical results. We review basic concepts in random matrix theory by illustrating their applications to the study of multispecies systems. We introduce tools that can be used to yield new insights into community ecology and conclude with a list of open problems.

Transcriptome resilience predicts thermotolerance in Caenorhabditis elegans

BACKGROUND

The detrimental effects of a short bout of stress can persist and potentially turn lethal, long after the return to normal conditions. Thermotolerance, which is the capacity of an organism to withstand relatively extreme temperatures, is influenced by the response during stress exposure, as well as the recovery process afterwards. While heat-shock response mechanisms have been studied intensively, predicting thermal tolerance remains a challenge.

RESULTS

Here, we use the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans to measure transcriptional resilience to heat stress and predict thermotolerance. Using principal component analysis in combination with genome-wide gene expression profiles collected in three high-resolution time series during control, heat stress, and recovery conditions, we infer a quantitative scale capturing the extent of stress-induced transcriptome dynamics in a single value. This scale provides a basis for evaluating transcriptome resilience, defined here as the ability to depart from stress-expression dynamics during recovery. Independent replication across multiple highly divergent genotypes reveals that the transcriptional resilience parameter measured after a spike in temperature is quantitatively linked to long-term survival after heat stress.

CONCLUSION

Our findings imply that thermotolerance is an intrinsic property that pre-determines long-term outcome of stress and can be predicted by the transcriptional resilience parameter. Inferring the transcriptional resilience parameters of higher organisms could aid in evaluating rehabilitation strategies after stresses such as disease and trauma.

Correction: Publisher Correction: Feasibility and coexistence of large ecological communities

Nature Communications 8: Article number: 14389; Published: 24 February 2017; Updated: 13 July 2018 The original HTML version of this Article had an incorrect article number of ‘0’; it should have been ‘14389’. This has now been corrected in the HTML version of the Article. The PDF version was correct from the time of publication.

Concurrent processes set E. coli cell division

A cell can divide only upon completion of chromosome segregation; otherwise, its daughters would lose genetic material. However, we do not know whether the partitioning of chromosomes is the key event for the decision to divide. We show how key trends in single-cell data reject the classic idea of replication-segregation as the rate-limiting process for cell division. Instead, the data agree with a model where two concurrent processes (setting replication initiation and interdivision time) set cell division on competing time scales. During each cell cycle, division is set by the slowest process (an "AND" gate). The concept of transitions between cell cycle stages as decisional processes integrating multiple inputs instead of cascading from orchestrated steps can affect the way we think of the cell cycle in general.

Social tipping points in animal societies

Animal social groups are complex systems that are likely to exhibit tipping points-which are defined as drastic shifts in the dynamics of systems that arise from small changes in environmental conditions-yet this concept has not been carefully applied to these systems. Here, we summarize the concepts behind tipping points and describe instances in which they are likely to occur in animal societies. We also offer ways in which the study of social tipping points can open up new lines of inquiry in behavioural ecology and generate novel questions, methods, and approaches in animal behaviour and other fields, including community and ecosystem ecology. While some behaviours of living systems are hard to predict, we argue that probing tipping points across animal societies and across tiers of biological organization-populations, communities, ecosystems-may help to reveal principles that transcend traditional disciplinary boundaries.

Size control in mammalian cells involves modulation of both growth rate and cell cycle duration

Despite decades of research, how mammalian cell size is controlled remains unclear because of the difficulty of directly measuring growth at the single-cell level. Here we report direct measurements of single-cell volumes over entire cell cycles on various mammalian cell lines and primary human cells. We find that, in a majority of cell types, the volume added across the cell cycle shows little or no correlation to cell birth size, a homeostatic behavior called "adder". This behavior involves modulation of G1 or S-G2 duration and modulation of growth rate. The precise combination of these mechanisms depends on the cell type and the growth condition. We have developed a mathematical framework to compare size homeostasis in datasets ranging from bacteria to mammalian cells. This reveals that a near-adder behavior is the most common type of size control and highlights the importance of growth rate modulation to size control in mammalian cells.

Effect of population abundances on the stability of large random ecosystems

Random matrix theory successfully connects the structure of interactions of large ecological communities to their ability to respond to perturbations. One of the most debated aspects of this approach is that so far studies have neglected the role of population abundances on stability. While species abundances are well studied and empirically accessible, studies on stability have so far failed to incorporate this information. Here we tackle this question by explicitly including population abundances in a random matrix framework. We derive an analytical formula that describes the spectrum of a large community matrix for arbitrary feasible species abundance distributions. The emerging picture is remarkably simple: while population abundances affect the rate to return to equilibrium after a perturbation, the stability of large ecosystems is uniquely determined by the interaction matrix. We confirm this result by showing that the likelihood of having a feasible and unstable solution in the Lotka-Volterra system of equations decreases exponentially with the number of species for stable interaction matrices.

The Empirical Fluctuation Pattern of E. coli Division Control

In physics, it is customary to represent the fluctuations of a stochastic system at steady state in terms of linear response to small random perturbations. Previous work has shown that the same framework describes effectively the trade-off between cell-to-cell variability and correction in the control of cell division of single E. coli cells. However, previous analyses were motivated by specific models and limited to a subset of the measured variables. For example, most analyses neglected the role of growth rate variability. Here, we take a comprehensive approach and consider several sets of available data from both microcolonies and microfluidic devices in different growth conditions. We evaluate all the coupling coefficients between the three main measured variables (interdivision times, cell sizes and individual-cell growth rates). The linear-response framework correctly predicts consistency relations between a priori independent experimental measurements, which confirms its validity. Additionally, the couplings between the cell-specific growth rate and the other variables are typically non zero. Finally, we use the framework to detect signatures of mechanisms in experimental data involving growth rate fluctuations, finding that (1) noise-generating coupling between size and growth rate is a consequence of inter-generation growth rate correlations and (2) the correlation patterns agree with a near-adder model where the added size has a dependence on the single-cell growth rate. Our findings define relevant constraints that any theoretical description should reproduce, and will help future studies aiming to falsify some of the competing models of the cell cycle existing today in the literature.

Zipf and Heaps laws from dependency structures in component systems

Complex natural and technological systems can be considered, on a coarse-grained level, as assemblies of elementary components: for example, genomes as sets of genes or texts as sets of words. On one hand, the joint occurrence of components emerges from architectural and specific constraints in such systems. On the other hand, general regularities may unify different systems, such as the broadly studied Zipf and Heaps laws, respectively concerning the distribution of component frequencies and their number as a function of system size. Dependency structures (i.e., directed networks encoding the dependency relations between the components in a system) were proposed recently as a possible organizing principles underlying some of the regularities observed. However, the consequences of this assumption were explored only in binary component systems, where solely the presence or absence of components is considered, and multiple copies of the same component are not allowed. Here we consider a simple model that generates, from a given ensemble of dependency structures, a statistical ensemble of sets of components, allowing for components to appear with any multiplicity. Our model is a minimal extension that is memoryless and therefore accessible to analytical calculations. A mean-field analytical approach (analogous to the "Zipfian ensemble" in the linguistics literature) captures the relevant laws describing the component statistics as we show by comparison with numerical computations. In particular, we recover a power-law Zipf rank plot, with a set of core components, and a Heaps law displaying three consecutive regimes (linear, sublinear, and saturating) that we characterize quantitatively.

Temporal dynamics of gene expression in heat-stressed Caenorhabditis elegans

There is considerable insight into pathways and genes associated with heat-stress conditions. Most genes involved in stress response have been identified using mutant screens or gene knockdowns. Yet, there is limited understanding of the temporal dynamics of global gene expression in stressful environments. Here, we studied global gene expression profiles during 12 hours of heat stress in the nematode C. elegans. Using a high-resolution time series of increasing stress exposures, we found a distinct shift in gene expression patterns between 3–4 hours into the stress response, separating an initially highly dynamic phase from a later relatively stagnant phase. This turning point in expression dynamics coincided with a phenotypic turning point, as shown by a strong decrease in movement, survival and, progeny count in the days following the stress. Both detectable at transcriptional and phenotypic level, this study pin-points a relatively small time frame during heat stress at which enough damage is accumulated, making it impossible to recover the next few days.

Family-specific scaling laws in bacterial genomes

Among several quantitative invariants found in evolutionary genomics, one of the most striking is the scaling of the overall abundance of proteins, or protein domains, sharing a specific functional annotation across genomes of given size. The size of these functional categories change, on average, as power-laws in the total number of protein-coding genes. Here, we show that such regularities are not restricted to the overall behavior of high-level functional categories, but also exist systematically at the level of single evolutionary families of protein domains. Specifically, the number of proteins within each family follows family-specific scaling laws with genome size. Functionally similar sets of families tend to follow similar scaling laws, but this is not always the case. To understand this systematically, we provide a comprehensive classification of families based on their scaling properties. Additionally, we develop a quantitative score for the heterogeneity of the scaling of families belonging to a given category or predefined group. Under the common reasonable assumption that selection is driven solely or mainly by biological function, these findings point to fine-tuned and interdependent functional roles of specific protein domains, beyond our current functional annotations. This analysis provides a deeper view on the links between evolutionary expansion of protein families and the functional constraints shaping the gene repertoire of bacterial genomes.

Higher-order interactions stabilize dynamics in competitive network models

Ecologists have long sought a way to explain how the remarkable biodiversity observed in nature is maintained. On the one hand, simple models of interacting competitors cannot produce the stable persistence of very large ecological communities. On the other hand, neutral models, in which species do not interact and diversity is maintained by immigration and speciation, yield unrealistically small fluctuations in population abundance, and a strong positive correlation between a species' abundance and its age, contrary to empirical evidence. Models allowing for the robust persistence of large communities of interacting competitors are lacking. Here we show that very diverse communities could persist thanks to the stabilizing role of higher-order interactions, in which the presence of a species influences the interaction between other species. Although higher-order interactions have been studied for decades, their role in shaping ecological communities is still unclear. The inclusion of higher-order interactions in competitive network models stabilizes dynamics, making species coexistence robust to the perturbation of both population abundance and parameter values. We show that higher-order interactions have strong effects in models of closed ecological communities, as well as of open communities in which new species are constantly introduced. In our framework, higher-order interactions are completely defined by pairwise interactions, facilitating empirical parameterization and validation of our models.

Last name analysis of mobility, gender imbalance, and nepotism across academic systems

In biology, last names have been used as proxy for genetic relatedness in pioneering studies of neutral theory and human migrations. More recently, analyzing the last name distribution of Italian academics has raised the suspicion of nepotism, with faculty hiring their relatives for academic posts. Here, we analyze three large datasets containing the last names of all academics in Italy, researchers from France, and those working at top public institutions in the United States. Through simple randomizations, we show that the US academic system is geographically well-mixed, whereas Italian academics tend to work in their native region. By contrasting maiden and married names, we can detect academic couples in France. Finally, we detect the signature of nepotism in the Italian system, with a declining trend. The claim that our tests detect nepotism as opposed to other effects is supported by the fact that we obtain different results for the researchers hired after 2010, when an antinepotism law was in effect.

Collapse of resilience patterns in generalized Lotka-Volterra dynamics and beyond

Recently, a theoretical framework aimed at separating the roles of dynamics and topology in multidimensional systems has been developed [Gao et al., Nature (London) 530, 307 (2016)10.1038/nature16948]. The validity of their method is assumed to hold depending on two main hypotheses: (i) The network determined by the the interaction between pairs of nodes has negligible degree correlations; (ii) the node activities are uniform across nodes on both the drift and the pairwise interaction functions. Moreover, the authors consider only positive (mutualistic) interactions. Here we show the conditions proposed by Gao and collaborators [Nature (London) 530, 307 (2016)10.1038/nature16948] are neither sufficient nor necessary to guarantee that their method works in general and validity of their results are not independent of the model chosen within the class of dynamics they considered. Indeed we find that a new condition poses effective limitations to their framework and we provide quantitative predictions of the quality of the one-dimensional collapse as a function of the properties of interaction networks and stable dynamics using results from random matrix theory. We also find that multidimensional reduction may work also for an interaction matrix with a mixture of positive and negative signs, opening up an application of the framework to food webs, neuronal networks, and social and economic interactions.

Relevant parameters in models of cell division control

A recent burst of dynamic single-cell data makes it possible to characterize the stochastic dynamics of cell division control in bacteria. Different models were used to propose specific mechanisms, but the links between them are poorly explored. The lack of comparative studies makes it difficult to appreciate how well any particular mechanism is supported by the data. Here, we describe a simple and generic framework in which two common formalisms can be used interchangeably: (i) a continuous-time division process described by a hazard function and (ii) a discrete-time equation describing cell size across generations (where the unit of time is a cell cycle). In our framework, this second process is a discrete-time Langevin equation with simple physical analogues. By perturbative expansion around the mean initial size (or interdivision time), we show how this framework describes a wide range of division control mechanisms, including combinations of time and size control, as well as the constant added size mechanism recently found to capture several aspects of the cell division behavior of different bacteria. As we show by analytical estimates and numerical simulations, the available data are described precisely by the first-order approximation of this expansion, i.e., by a "linear response" regime for the correction of size fluctuations. Hence, a single dimensionless parameter defines the strength and action of the division control against cell-to-cell variability (quantified by a single "noise" parameter). However, the same strength of linear response may emerge from several mechanisms, which are distinguished only by higher-order terms in the perturbative expansion. Our analytical estimate of the sample size needed to distinguish between second-order effects shows that this value is close to but larger than the values of the current datasets. These results provide a unified framework for future studies and clarify the relevant parameters at play in the control of cell division.

Individuality and universality in the growth-division laws of single E. coli cells

The mean size of exponentially dividing Escherichia coli cells in different nutrient conditions is known to depend on the mean growth rate only. However, the joint fluctuations relating cell size, doubling time, and individual growth rate are only starting to be characterized. Recent studies in bacteria reported a universal trend where the spread in both size and doubling times is a linear function of the population means of these variables. Here we combine experiments and theory and use scaling concepts to elucidate the constraints posed by the second observation on the division control mechanism and on the joint fluctuations of sizes and doubling times. We found that scaling relations based on the means collapse both size and doubling-time distributions across different conditions and explain how the shape of their joint fluctuations deviates from the means. Our data on these joint fluctuations highlight the importance of cell individuality: Single cells do not follow the dependence observed for the means between size and either growth rate or inverse doubling time. Our calculations show that these results emerge from a broad class of division control mechanisms requiring a certain scaling form of the "division hazard rate function," which defines the probability rate of dividing as a function of measurable parameters. This "model free" approach gives a rationale for the universal body-size distributions observed in microbial ecosystems across many microbial species, presumably dividing with multiple mechanisms. Additionally, our experiments show a crossover between fast and slow growth in the relation between individual-cell growth rate and division time, which can be understood in terms of different regimes of genome replication control.

Effect of localization on the stability of mutualistic ecological networks

The relationships between the core–periphery architecture of the species interaction network and the mechanisms ensuring the stability in mutualistic ecological communities are still unclear. In particular, most studies have focused their attention on asymptotic resilience or persistence, neglecting how perturbations propagate through the system. Here we develop a theoretical framework to evaluate the relationship between the architecture of the interaction networks and the impact of perturbations by studying localization, a measure describing the ability of the perturbation to propagate through the network. We show that mutualistic ecological communities are localized, and localization reduces perturbation propagation and attenuates its impact on species abundance. Localization depends on the topology of the interaction networks, and it positively correlates with the variance of the weighted degree distribution, a signature of the network topological heterogeneity. Our results provide a different perspective on the interplay between the architecture of interaction networks in mutualistic communities and their stability.

The architecture of ecological interaction networks affects community dynamics. Here, Suweis et al. show that mutualistic networks are characterized by a high degree of localization, and that localization reduces perturbation propagation and attenuates its impact on species abundances.

Metapopulation persistence in random fragmented landscapes

Habitat destruction and land use change are making the world in which natural populations live increasingly fragmented, often leading to local extinctions. Although local populations might undergo extinction, a metapopulation may still be viable as long as patches of suitable habitat are connected by dispersal, so that empty patches can be recolonized. Thus far, metapopulations models have either taken a mean-field approach, or have modeled empirically-based, realistic landscapes. Here we show that an intermediate level of complexity between these two extremes is to consider random landscapes, in which the patches of suitable habitat are randomly arranged in an area (or volume). Using methods borrowed from the mathematics of Random Geometric Graphs and Euclidean Random Matrices, we derive a simple, analytic criterion for the persistence of the metapopulation in random fragmented landscapes. Our results show how the density of patches, the variability in their value, the shape of the dispersal kernel, and the dimensionality of the landscape all contribute to determining the fate of the metapopulation. Using this framework, we derive sufficient conditions for the population to be spatially localized, such that spatially confined clusters of patches act as a source of dispersal for the whole landscape. Finally, we show that a regular arrangement of the patches is always detrimental for persistence, compared to the random arrangement of the patches. Given the strong parallel between metapopulation models and contact processes, our results are also applicable to models of disease spread on spatial networks.

Like the hundreds of paintings of water lilies by Monet, any two landscapes in which a metapopulation dwells are different, as the size, shape and location of the patches of suitable habitat (the lilies), distributed over a inhospitable background (the water) vary among landscapes. Yet, as all the paintings depict the same pond in Giverny, different fragmented landscapes could have the same value to a metapopulation. Here we ask what are the key features we should measure to predict persistence of metapopulations inhabiting fragmented landscapes, and show that few quantities determine the fate of metapopulations—so that two very different-looking landscapes could lead to the same likelihood of persistence. We also show that regular arrangements of the patches in space are detrimental for persistence, and that the typical behavior of metapopulations close to extinction is to be mostly localized in a confined region of the landscape.

Large-scale dynamics of horizontal transfers

The widespread exchange of genes between bacteria must have consequences on the global architecture of their genomes, which are being found in the abundant genomic data available today. Most of the expansion of bacterial protein families can be attributed to transfer events, which are positively biased for smaller evolutionary distances between genomes, and more frequent for classes that are larger, when summed over all known bacteria. Moreover, “innovation” events where horizontal transfers carry exogenous evolutionary families appear to be less frequent for larger genomes. This dynamic expansion of evolutionary families is interconnected with the acquisition of new biological functions and thus with the size and distribution of the genes’ functional categories found on a genome. This commentary presents our recent contributions to this line of work and possible future directions.

Cross-species gene-family fluctuations reveal the dynamics of horizontal transfers

Prokaryotes vary their protein repertoire mainly through horizontal transfer and gene loss. To elucidate the links between these processes and the cross-species gene-family statistics, we perform a large-scale data analysis of the cross-species variability of gene-family abundance (the number of members of the family found on a given genome). We find that abundance fluctuations are related to the rate of horizontal transfers. This is rationalized by a minimal theoretical model, which predicts this link. The families that are not captured by the model show abundance profiles that are markedly peaked around a mean value, possibly because of specific abundance selection. Based on these results, we define an abundance variability index that captures a family's evolutionary behavior (and thus some of its relevant functional properties) purely based on its cross-species abundance fluctuations. Analysis and model, combined, show a quantitative link between cross-species family abundance statistics and horizontal transfer dynamics, which can be used to analyze genome ‘flux’. Groups of families with different values of the abundance variability index correspond to genome sub-parts having different plasticity in terms of the level of horizontal exchange allowed by natural selection.

Spatial aggregation and the species-area relationship across scales

There has been a considerable effort to understand and quantify the spatial distribution of species across different ecosystems. Relative species abundance (RSA), beta diversity and species-area relationship (SAR) are among the most used macroecological measures to characterize plants communities in forests. In this paper we introduce a simple phenomenological model based on Poisson cluster processes which allows us to exactly link RSA and beta diversity to SAR. The framework is spatially explicit and accounts for the spatial aggregation of conspecific individuals. Under the simplifying assumption of neutral theory, we derive an analytical expression for the SAR which reproduces tri-phasic behavior as sample area increases from local to continental scales, explaining how the tri-phasic behavior can be understood in terms of simple geometric arguments. We also find an expression for the endemic area relationship (EAR) and for the scaling of the RSA.

Joint scaling laws in functional and evolutionary categories in prokaryotic genomes

We propose and study a class-expansion/innovation/loss model of genome evolution taking into account biological roles of genes and their constituent domains. In our model, numbers of genes in different functional categories are coupled to each other. For example, an increase in the number of metabolic enzymes in a genome is usually accompanied by addition of new transcription factors regulating these enzymes. Such coupling can be thought of as a proportional ‘recipe’ for genome composition of the type ‘a spoonful of sugar for each egg yolk’. The model jointly reproduces two known empirical laws: the distribution of family sizes and the non-linear scaling of the number of genes in certain functional categories (e.g. transcription factors) with genome size. In addition, it allows us to derive a novel relation between the exponents characterizing these two scaling laws, establishing a direct quantitative connection between evolutionary and functional categories. It predicts that functional categories that grow faster-than-linearly with genome size to be characterized by flatter-than-average family size distributions. This relation is confirmed by our bioinformatics analysis of prokaryotic genomes. This proves that the joint quantitative trends of functional and evolutionary classes can be understood in terms of evolutionary growth with proportional recipes.