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Johnson E, Sunil Kumar Sharma R, Ruiz Cuenca P, Byrne I, Salgado-Lynn M, Suraya Shahar Z, Col Lin L, Zulkifli N, Dilaila Mohd Saidi N, Drakeley C, Matthiopoulos J, Nelli L, Fornace K. Landscape drives zoonotic malaria prevalence in non-human primates. eLife 2024; 12:RP88616. [PMID: 38753426 PMCID: PMC11098556 DOI: 10.7554/elife.88616] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/18/2024] Open
Abstract
Zoonotic disease dynamics in wildlife hosts are rarely quantified at macroecological scales due to the lack of systematic surveys. Non-human primates (NHPs) host Plasmodium knowlesi, a zoonotic malaria of public health concern and the main barrier to malaria elimination in Southeast Asia. Understanding of regional P. knowlesi infection dynamics in wildlife is limited. Here, we systematically assemble reports of NHP P. knowlesi and investigate geographic determinants of prevalence in reservoir species. Meta-analysis of 6322 NHPs from 148 sites reveals that prevalence is heterogeneous across Southeast Asia, with low overall prevalence and high estimates for Malaysian Borneo. We find that regions exhibiting higher prevalence in NHPs overlap with human infection hotspots. In wildlife and humans, parasite transmission is linked to land conversion and fragmentation. By assembling remote sensing data and fitting statistical models to prevalence at multiple spatial scales, we identify novel relationships between P. knowlesi in NHPs and forest fragmentation. This suggests that higher prevalence may be contingent on habitat complexity, which would begin to explain observed geographic variation in parasite burden. These findings address critical gaps in understanding regional P. knowlesi epidemiology and indicate that prevalence in simian reservoirs may be a key spatial driver of human spillover risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emilia Johnson
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of GlasgowGlasgowUnited Kingdom
- Department of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineLondonUnited Kingdom
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineLondonUnited Kingdom
| | | | - Pablo Ruiz Cuenca
- Department of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineLondonUnited Kingdom
- Lancaster University, BailriggLancasterUnited Kingdom
- Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Pembroke Place LiverpoolLiverpoolUnited Kingdom
| | - Isabel Byrne
- Department of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineLondonUnited Kingdom
| | - Milena Salgado-Lynn
- School of Biosciences, Cardiff UniversityCardiffUnited Kingdom
- Wildlife Health, Genetic and Forensic Laboratory, Sabah Wildlife Department, Wisma MuisKota KinabaluMalaysia
- Danau Girang Field Centre, Sabah Wildlife DepartmentKinabalu SabahMalaysia
| | | | - Lee Col Lin
- Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Universiti Putra MalaysiaSelangorMalaysia
| | - Norhadila Zulkifli
- Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Universiti Putra MalaysiaSelangorMalaysia
| | | | - Chris Drakeley
- Department of Infection Biology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineLondonUnited Kingdom
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of GlasgowGlasgowUnited Kingdom
| | - Luca Nelli
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of GlasgowGlasgowUnited Kingdom
| | - Kimberly Fornace
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of GlasgowGlasgowUnited Kingdom
- Department of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineLondonUnited Kingdom
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical MedicineLondonUnited Kingdom
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of SingaporeSingaporeSingapore
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2
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Chadwick FJ, Haydon DT, Husmeier D, Ovaskainen O, Matthiopoulos J. LIES of omission: complex observation processes in ecology. Trends Ecol Evol 2024; 39:368-380. [PMID: 37949794 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2023.10.009] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/29/2023] [Revised: 10/13/2023] [Accepted: 10/16/2023] [Indexed: 11/12/2023]
Abstract
Advances in statistics mean that it is now possible to tackle increasingly sophisticated observation processes. The intricacies and ambitious scale of modern data collection techniques mean that this is now essential. Methodological research to make inference about the biological process while accounting for the observation process has expanded dramatically, but solutions are often presented in field-specific terms, limiting our ability to identify commonalities between methods. We suggest a typology of observation processes that could improve translation between fields and aid methodological synthesis. We propose the LIES framework (defining observation processes in terms of issues of Latency, Identifiability, Effort and Scale) and illustrate its use with both simple examples and more complex case studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fergus J Chadwick
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK; Centre for Research Into Ecological and Environmental Monitoring, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of St Andrews, St. Andrews, Scotland, UK.
| | - Daniel T Haydon
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK
| | - Dirk Husmeier
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8TA, UK
| | - Otso Ovaskainen
- Department of Biological and Environmental Science, P.O. Box 35 FI-40014, University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylä, Finland
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK
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3
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Jeglinski JWE, Lane JV, Votier SC, Furness RW, Hamer KC, McCafferty DJ, Nager RG, Sheddan M, Wanless S, Matthiopoulos J. HPAIV outbreak triggers short-term colony connectivity in a seabird metapopulation. Sci Rep 2024; 14:3126. [PMID: 38326368 PMCID: PMC10850054 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-53550-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/07/2023] [Accepted: 02/01/2024] [Indexed: 02/09/2024] Open
Abstract
Disease outbreaks can drastically disturb the environment of surviving animals, but the behavioural, ecological, and epidemiological consequences of disease-driven disturbance are poorly understood. Here, we show that an outbreak of High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus (HPAIV) coincided with unprecedented short-term behavioural changes in Northern gannets (Morus bassanus). Breeding gannets show characteristically strong fidelity to their nest sites and foraging areas (2015-2019; n = 120), but during the 2022 HPAIV outbreak, GPS-tagged gannets instigated long-distance movements beyond well-documented previous ranges and the first ever recorded visits of GPS-tagged adults to other gannet breeding colonies. Our findings suggest that the HPAIV outbreak triggered changes in space use patterns of exposed individuals that amplified the epidemiological connectivity among colonies and may generate super-spreader events that accelerate disease transmission across the metapopulation. Such self-propagating transmission from and towards high density animal aggregations may explain the unexpectedly rapid pan-European spread of HPAIV in the gannet.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jana W E Jeglinski
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
- School of Energy, Geoscience, Infrastructure and Society, The Lyell Centre, Herriot Watt University, Edinburgh, UK.
| | - Jude V Lane
- RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, Sandy, UK
| | - Steven C Votier
- School of Energy, Geoscience, Infrastructure and Society, The Lyell Centre, Herriot Watt University, Edinburgh, UK
| | | | | | - Dominic J McCafferty
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Ruedi G Nager
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | | | - Sarah Wanless
- UK Centre for Hydrology & Ecology Edinburgh, Penicuik, UK
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
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4
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Kindsvater HK, Juan‐Jordá M, Dulvy NK, Horswill C, Matthiopoulos J, Mangel M. Size-dependence of food intake and mortality interact with temperature and seasonality to drive diversity in fish life histories. Evol Appl 2024; 17:e13646. [PMID: 38333556 PMCID: PMC10848883 DOI: 10.1111/eva.13646] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2023] [Revised: 12/06/2023] [Accepted: 01/05/2024] [Indexed: 02/10/2024] Open
Abstract
Understanding how growth and reproduction will adapt to changing environmental conditions is a fundamental question in evolutionary ecology, but predicting the responses of specific taxa is challenging. Analyses of the physiological effects of climate change upon life history evolution rarely consider alternative hypothesized mechanisms, such as size-dependent foraging and the risk of predation, simultaneously shaping optimal growth patterns. To test for interactions between these mechanisms, we embedded a state-dependent energetic model in an ecosystem size-spectrum to ask whether prey availability (foraging) and risk of predation experienced by individual fish can explain observed diversity in life histories of fishes. We found that asymptotic growth emerged from size-based foraging and reproductive and mortality patterns in the context of ecosystem food web interactions. While more productive ecosystems led to larger body sizes, the effects of temperature on metabolic costs had only small effects on size. To validate our model, we ran it for abiotic scenarios corresponding to the ecological lifestyles of three tuna species, considering environments that included seasonal variation in temperature. We successfully predicted realistic patterns of growth, reproduction, and mortality of all three tuna species. We found that individuals grew larger when environmental conditions varied seasonally, and spawning was restricted to part of the year (corresponding to their migration from temperate to tropical waters). Growing larger was advantageous because foraging and spawning opportunities were seasonally constrained. This mechanism could explain the evolution of gigantism in temperate tunas. Our approach addresses variation in food availability and individual risk as well as metabolic processes and offers a promising approach to understand fish life-history responses to changing ocean conditions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Holly K. Kindsvater
- Department of Fish and Wildlife ConservationVirginia Polytechnic Institute and State UniversityBlacksburgVirginiaUSA
| | - Maria‐José Juan‐Jordá
- Earth to Ocean Research Group, Department of Biological SciencesSimon Fraser UniversityBurnabyBritish ColumbiaCanada
- AZTI, Marine Research, Basque Research and Technology Alliance (BRTA)GipuzkoaSpain
- Instituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO‐CSIC), Centro Oceanográfico de MadridMadridSpain
| | - Nicholas K. Dulvy
- Earth to Ocean Research Group, Department of Biological SciencesSimon Fraser UniversityBurnabyBritish ColumbiaCanada
| | - Cat Horswill
- ZSL Institute of ZoologyLondonUK
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environmental Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and EnvironmentUniversity College LondonLondonUK
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- Institute of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary MedicineUniversity of GlasgowGlasgowUK
| | - Marc Mangel
- Theoretical Ecology Group, Department of BiologyUniversity of BergenBergenNorway
- Institute of Marine Sciences and Department of Applied Mathematics and StatisticsUniversity of CaliforniaSanta CruzCaliforniaUSA
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5
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Ribeiro R, Matthiopoulos J, Lindgren F, Tello C, Zariquiey CM, Valderrama W, Rocke TE, Streicker DG. Incorporating environmental heterogeneity and observation effort to predict host distribution and viral spillover from a bat reservoir. Proc Biol Sci 2023; 290:20231739. [PMID: 37989240 PMCID: PMC10688441 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2023.1739] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2023] [Accepted: 10/30/2023] [Indexed: 11/23/2023] Open
Abstract
Predicting the spatial occurrence of wildlife is a major challenge for ecology and management. In Latin America, limited knowledge of the number and locations of vampire bat roosts precludes informed allocation of measures intended to prevent rabies spillover to humans and livestock. We inferred the spatial distribution of vampire bat roosts while accounting for observation effort and environmental effects by fitting a log Gaussian Cox process model to the locations of 563 roosts in three regions of Peru. Our model explained 45% of the variance in the observed roost distribution and identified environmental drivers of roost establishment. When correcting for uneven observation effort, our model estimated a total of 2340 roosts, indicating that undetected roosts (76%) exceed known roosts (24%) by threefold. Predicted hotspots of undetected roosts in rabies-free areas revealed high-risk areas for future viral incursions. Using the predicted roost distribution to inform a spatial model of rabies spillover to livestock identified areas with disproportionate underreporting and indicated a higher rabies burden than previously recognized. We provide a transferrable approach to infer the distribution of a mostly unobserved bat reservoir that can inform strategies to prevent the re-emergence of an important zoonosis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rita Ribeiro
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, University Avenue, Graham Kerr Building, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, University Avenue, Graham Kerr Building, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK
| | - Finn Lindgren
- School of Mathematics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - Carlos Tello
- ILLARIY (Asociación para el Desarrollo y Conservación de los Recursos Naturales), Lima, Perú
- Yunkawasi, Lima, Perú
| | - Carlos M. Zariquiey
- ILLARIY (Asociación para el Desarrollo y Conservación de los Recursos Naturales), Lima, Perú
| | - William Valderrama
- ILLARIY (Asociación para el Desarrollo y Conservación de los Recursos Naturales), Lima, Perú
- Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Perú
| | - Tonie E. Rocke
- National Wildlife Health Center, US Geological Survey, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
| | - Daniel G. Streicker
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, University Avenue, Graham Kerr Building, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK
- Medical Research Council—University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow, UK
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6
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Browning TJ, Al-Hashem AA, Achterberg EP, Carvalho PC, Catry P, Matthiopoulos J, Miller JAO, Wakefield ED. The role of seabird guano in maintaining North Atlantic summertime productivity. Sci Total Environ 2023; 897:165309. [PMID: 37406699 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165309] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/06/2023] [Revised: 06/29/2023] [Accepted: 07/02/2023] [Indexed: 07/07/2023]
Abstract
Nutrients supplied via seabird guano increase primary production in some coastal ecosystems. A similar process may occur in the open ocean. To investigate this directly, we first measured bulk and leachable nutrient concentrations in guano sampled in the North Atlantic. We found that guano was strongly enriched in phosphorus, which was released as phosphate in solution. Nitrogen release was dominated by reduced forms (ammonium and urea) whilst release of nitrate was relatively low. A range of trace elements, including the micronutrient iron, were released. Using in-situ bioassays, we then showed that supply of fresh guano to ambient seawater increases phytoplankton biomass and photochemical efficiencies. Based on these results, modelled seabird distributions, and known defecation rates, we estimate that on annual scales guano is a minor source of nutrients for the surface North Atlantic. However, on shorter timescales in late spring/summer it could be much more important: Estimates of upper-level depositions of phosphorus by seabirds were three orders of magnitude higher than modelled aerosol deposition and comparable to diffusion from deeper waters.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thomas J Browning
- Marine Biogeochemistry Division, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Kiel, Germany.
| | - Ali A Al-Hashem
- Marine Biogeochemistry Division, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Kiel, Germany
| | - Eric P Achterberg
- Marine Biogeochemistry Division, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Kiel, Germany
| | - Paloma C Carvalho
- Freshwater Institute, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N6, Canada
| | - Paulo Catry
- Marine and Environmental Sciences Centre (MARE) / Aquatic Research Network (ARNET), ISPA - Instituto Universitário, Rua Jardim do Tabaco 34, 1149-041 Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- School of Biodiversity One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Julie A O Miller
- School of Biodiversity One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, United Kingdom
| | - Ewan D Wakefield
- School of Biodiversity One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, United Kingdom; Department of Geography, Durham University, Lower Mountjoy, South Road, Durham, DH1 3LE, UK
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7
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Viana M, Benavides JA, Broos A, Ibañez Loayza D, Niño R, Bone J, da Silva Filipe A, Orton R, Valderrama Bazan W, Matthiopoulos J, Streicker DG. Effects of culling vampire bats on the spatial spread and spillover of rabies virus. Sci Adv 2023; 9:eadd7437. [PMID: 36897949 PMCID: PMC10005164 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.add7437] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2022] [Accepted: 02/09/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Controlling pathogen circulation in wildlife reservoirs is notoriously challenging. In Latin America, vampire bats have been culled for decades in hopes of mitigating lethal rabies infections in humans and livestock. Whether culls reduce or exacerbate rabies transmission remains controversial. Using Bayesian state-space models, we show that a 2-year, spatially extensive bat cull in an area of exceptional rabies incidence in Peru failed to reduce spillover to livestock, despite reducing bat population density. Viral whole genome sequencing and phylogeographic analyses further demonstrated that culling before virus arrival slowed viral spatial spread, but reactive culling accelerated spread, suggesting that culling-induced changes in bat dispersal promoted viral invasions. Our findings question the core assumptions of density-dependent transmission and localized viral maintenance that underlie culling bats as a rabies prevention strategy and provide an epidemiological and evolutionary framework to understand the outcomes of interventions in complex wildlife disease systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mafalda Viana
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK
| | - Julio A. Benavides
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK
- MIVEGEC, IRD, CNRS, Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France
- Doctorado en Medicina de la Conservación y Centro de Investigación para la Sustentabilidad, Facultad de Ciencias de la Vida, Universidad Andrés Bello, República 440 Santiago, Chile
| | - Alice Broos
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK
- MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow G61 1QH, UK
| | | | - Ruby Niño
- Colegio Médico Veterinario de Apurímac, Abancay, Perú
| | - Jordan Bone
- MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow G61 1QH, UK
| | | | - Richard Orton
- MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow G61 1QH, UK
| | - William Valderrama Bazan
- ILLARIY (Asociación para el Desarrollo y Conservación de los Recursos Naturales), Lima, Perú
- Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Perú
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK
| | - Daniel G. Streicker
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK
- MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow G61 1QH, UK
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8
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Jeglinski JWE, Wanless S, Murray S, Barrett RT, Gardarsson A, Harris MP, Dierschke J, Strøm H, Lorentsen S, Matthiopoulos J. Metapopulation regulation acts at multiple spatial scales: Insights from a century of seabird colony census data. ECOL MONOGR 2023. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1569] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/06/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Jana W. E. Jeglinski
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine University of Glasgow Glasgow UK
| | | | | | - Robert T. Barrett
- Department of Natural Sciences Tromsø University Museum, PO Box 6050 Langnes ‐Tromsø Norway
| | - Arnthor Gardarsson
- Institute of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Iceland Reykjavik Iceland
| | | | | | - Hallvard Strøm
- Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Postbox 6606 Langnes Tromsø Norway
| | | | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine University of Glasgow Glasgow UK
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9
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Aldossari S, Husmeier D, Matthiopoulos J. Transferable species distribution modelling: Comparative performance of Generalised Functional Response models. ECOL INFORM 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2022.101803] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
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10
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Haddou Y, Mancy R, Matthiopoulos J, Spatharis S, Dominoni DM. Author Correction: Widespread extinction debts and colonization credits in United States breeding bird communities. Nat Ecol Evol 2022; 6:1788. [PMID: 36216907 PMCID: PMC9630109 DOI: 10.1038/s41559-022-01912-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Yacob Haddou
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Rebecca Mancy
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.,Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Sofie Spatharis
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.,School of Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Davide M Dominoni
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
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11
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Jarrett C, Haydon DT, Morales JM, Ferreira DF, Forzi FA, Welch AJ, Powell LL, Matthiopoulos J. Integration of mark-recapture and acoustic detections for unbiased population estimation in animal communities. Ecology 2022; 103:e3769. [PMID: 35620844 PMCID: PMC9787363 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3769] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2021] [Revised: 04/15/2022] [Accepted: 04/21/2022] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
Abundance estimation methods that combine several types of data are becoming increasingly common because they yield more accurate and precise parameter estimates and predictions than are possible from a single data source. These beneficial effects result from increasing sample size (through data pooling) and complementarity between different data types. Here, we test whether integrating mark-recapture data with passive acoustic detections into a joint likelihood improves estimates of population size in a multi-guild community. We compared the integrated model to a mark-recapture-only model using simulated data first and then using a data set of mist-net captures and acoustic recordings from an Afrotropical agroforest bird community. The integrated model with simulated data improved accuracy and precision of estimated population size and detection parameters. When applied to field data, the integrated model was able to produce, for each bird guild, ecologically plausible estimates of population size and detection parameters, with more precision compared with the mark-recapture model. Overall, our results show that adding acoustic data to mark-recapture analyses improves estimates of population size. With the increasing availability of acoustic recording devices, this data collection technique could readily be added to routine field protocols, leading to a cost-efficient improvement of traditional mark-recapture population estimation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Crinan Jarrett
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical Veterinary and Life SciencesUniversity of GlasgowGlasgowUK,Biodiversity InitiativeBelmontMassachusettsUSA
| | - Daniel T. Haydon
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical Veterinary and Life SciencesUniversity of GlasgowGlasgowUK
| | - Juan M. Morales
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical Veterinary and Life SciencesUniversity of GlasgowGlasgowUK,Grupo de Ecología Cuantitativa, INIBIOMA‐CONICETUniversidad Nacional del ComahueBarilocheArgentina
| | - Diogo F. Ferreira
- Biodiversity InitiativeBelmontMassachusettsUSA,CIBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, InBIO Laboratório Associado, Campus de VairãoUniversidade do PortoVairãoPortugal,BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land PlanningCIBIOVairãoPortugal
| | | | - Andreanna J. Welch
- Biodiversity InitiativeBelmontMassachusettsUSA,Department of BiosciencesDurham UniversityDurhamUK
| | - Luke L. Powell
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical Veterinary and Life SciencesUniversity of GlasgowGlasgowUK,Biodiversity InitiativeBelmontMassachusettsUSA,CIBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, InBIO Laboratório Associado, Campus de VairãoUniversidade do PortoVairãoPortugal,BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land PlanningCIBIOVairãoPortugal,Department of BiosciencesDurham UniversityDurhamUK
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical Veterinary and Life SciencesUniversity of GlasgowGlasgowUK
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12
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Ngowo HS, Limwagu AJ, Ferguson HM, Matthiopoulos J, Okumu FO, Nelli L. A statistical calibration tool for methods used to sample outdoor-biting mosquitoes. Parasit Vectors 2022; 15:293. [PMID: 35978415 PMCID: PMC9386948 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-022-05403-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2022] [Accepted: 07/19/2022] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Improved methods for sampling outdoor-biting mosquitoes are urgently needed to improve surveillance of vector-borne diseases. Such tools could potentially replace the human landing catch (HLC), which, despite being the most direct option for measuring human exposures, raises significant ethical and logistical concerns. Several alternatives are under development, but detailed evaluation still requires common frameworks for calibration relative to HLC. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a statistical framework for predicting human-biting rates from different exposure-free alternatives. Methods We obtained mosquito abundance data (Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles funestus and Culex spp.) from a year-long Tanzanian study comparing six outdoor traps [Suna Trap (SUN), BG Sentinel (BGS), M-Trap (MTR), M-Trap + CDC (MTRC), Ifakara Tent Trap-C (ITT-C) and Mosquito Magnet-X Trap (MMX)] and HLC. Generalised linear models were developed within a Bayesian framework to investigate associations between the traps and HLC, taking intra- and inter-specific density dependence into account. The best model was used to create a calibration tool for predicting HLC-equivalents. Results For An. arabiensis, SUN catches had the strongest correlation with HLC (R2 = 19.4), followed by BGS (R2 = 17.2) and MTRC (R2 = 13.1) catches. The least correlated catch was MMX (R2 = 2.5). For An. funestus, BGS had the strongest correlation with the HLC (R2 = 53.4), followed by MTRC (R2 = 37.4) and MTR (R2 = 37.4). For Culex mosquitoes, the traps most highly correlated with the HLC were MTR (R2 = 45.4) and MTRC (R2 = 44.2). Density dependence, both between and within species, influenced the performance of only BGS traps. An interactive Shiny App calibration tool was developed for this and similar applications. Conclusion We successfully developed a calibration tool to assess the performance of different traps for assessing outdoor-biting risk, and established a valuable framework for estimating human exposures based on the trap catches. The performance of candidate traps varied between mosquito taxa; thus, there was no single optimum. Although all the traps tested underestimated the HLC-derived exposures, it was possible to mathematically define their representativeness of the true biting risk, with or without density dependence. The results of this study emphasise the need to aim for a consistent and representative sampling approach, as opposed to simply seeking traps that catch the most mosquitoes. Graphical Abstract ![]()
Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-022-05403-7.
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Affiliation(s)
- Halfan S Ngowo
- Department of Environmental Health & Ecological Sciences, Ifakara Health Institute, Ifakara, Tanzania. .,Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
| | - Alex J Limwagu
- Department of Environmental Health & Ecological Sciences, Ifakara Health Institute, Ifakara, Tanzania
| | - Heather M Ferguson
- Department of Environmental Health & Ecological Sciences, Ifakara Health Institute, Ifakara, Tanzania.,Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Fredros O Okumu
- Department of Environmental Health & Ecological Sciences, Ifakara Health Institute, Ifakara, Tanzania.,Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.,School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Republic of South Africa.,School of Life Science and Bioengineering, Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science & Technology, Arusha, Tanzania
| | - Luca Nelli
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
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13
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Matthiopoulos J. Defining, estimating, and understanding the fundamental niches of complex animals in heterogeneous environments. ECOL MONOGR 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1545] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Jason Matthiopoulos
- Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health and Comparative Medicine. University of Glasgow. Glasgow. G12 8QQ Scotland
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14
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Ngowo HS, Okumu FO, Hape EE, Mshani IH, Ferguson HM, Matthiopoulos J. Using Bayesian state-space models to understand the population dynamics of the dominant malaria vector, Anopheles funestus in rural Tanzania. Malar J 2022; 21:161. [PMID: 35658961 PMCID: PMC9166306 DOI: 10.1186/s12936-022-04189-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/27/2021] [Accepted: 05/19/2022] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Background It is often assumed that the population dynamics of the malaria vector Anopheles funestus, its role in malaria transmission and the way it responds to interventions are similar to the more elaborately characterized Anopheles gambiae. However, An. funestus has several unique ecological features that could generate distinct transmission dynamics and responsiveness to interventions. The objectives of this work were to develop a model which will: (1) reconstruct the population dynamics, survival, and fecundity of wild An. funestus populations in southern Tanzania, (2) quantify impacts of density dependence on the dynamics, and (3) assess seasonal fluctuations in An. funestus demography. Through quantifying the population dynamics of An. funestus, this model will enable analysis of how their stability and response to interventions may differ from that of An. gambiae sensu lato. Methods A Bayesian State Space Model (SSM) based on mosquito life history was fit to time series data on the abundance of female An. funestus sensu stricto collected over 2 years in southern Tanzania. Prior values of fitness and demography were incorporated from empirical data on larval development, adult survival and fecundity from laboratory-reared first generation progeny of wild caught An. funestus. The model was structured to allow larval and adult fitness traits to vary seasonally in response to environmental covariates (i.e. temperature and rainfall), and for density dependency in larvae. The effects of density dependence and seasonality were measured through counterfactual examination of model fit with or without these covariates. Results The model accurately reconstructed the seasonal population dynamics of An. funestus and generated biologically-plausible values of their survival larval, development and fecundity in the wild. This model suggests that An. funestus survival and fecundity annual pattern was highly variable across the year, but did not show consistent seasonal trends either rainfall or temperature. While the model fit was somewhat improved by inclusion of density dependence, this was a relatively minor effect and suggests that this process is not as important for An. funestus as it is for An. gambiae populations. Conclusion The model's ability to accurately reconstruct the dynamics and demography of An. funestus could potentially be useful in simulating the response of these populations to vector control techniques deployed separately or in combination. The observed and simulated dynamics also suggests that An. funestus could be playing a role in year-round malaria transmission, with any apparent seasonality attributed to other vector species. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-022-04189-4.
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Affiliation(s)
- Halfan S Ngowo
- Department of Environmental Health & Ecological Sciences, Ifakara Health Institute, Ifakara, Tanzania. .,Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
| | - Fredros O Okumu
- Department of Environmental Health & Ecological Sciences, Ifakara Health Institute, Ifakara, Tanzania.,Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.,School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Braamfontein, Republic of South Africa.,School of Life Science and Bioengineering, Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science & Technology, Arusha, Tanzania
| | - Emmanuel E Hape
- Department of Environmental Health & Ecological Sciences, Ifakara Health Institute, Ifakara, Tanzania.,Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Issa H Mshani
- Department of Environmental Health & Ecological Sciences, Ifakara Health Institute, Ifakara, Tanzania.,Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Heather M Ferguson
- Department of Environmental Health & Ecological Sciences, Ifakara Health Institute, Ifakara, Tanzania.,Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
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15
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Dunn RE, Green JA, Wanless S, Harris MP, Newell MA, Bogdanova MI, Horswill C, Daunt F, Matthiopoulos J. Modelling and mapping how common guillemots balance their energy budgets over a full annual cycle. Funct Ecol 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.14059] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- R. E. Dunn
- School of Environmental Sciences University of Liverpool Liverpool UK
- Lancaster Environment Centre Lancaster University Lancaster UK
| | - J. A. Green
- School of Environmental Sciences University of Liverpool Liverpool UK
| | - S. Wanless
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate Penicuik UK
| | - M. P. Harris
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate Penicuik UK
| | - M. A. Newell
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate Penicuik UK
| | | | - C. Horswill
- ZSL Institute of Zoology Regent’s Park London UK
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environmental Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment University College London Gower Street London UK
- Department of Zoology University of Cambridge Downing St Cambridge UK
| | - F. Daunt
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate Penicuik UK
| | - J. Matthiopoulos
- Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health & Comparative Medicine University of Glasgow Glasgow UK
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16
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Fornace K, Manin BO, Matthiopoulos J, Ferguson HM, Drakeley C, Ahmed K, Khoon KT, Ewers RM, Daim S, Chua TH. A protocol for a longitudinal, observational cohort study of infection and exposure to zoonotic and vector-borne diseases across a land-use gradient in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo: a socio-ecological systems approach. Wellcome Open Res 2022; 7:63. [PMID: 35284640 PMCID: PMC8886174 DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.17678.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 02/10/2022] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction. Landscape changes disrupt environmental, social and biological systems, altering pathogen spillover and transmission risks. This study aims to quantify the impact of specific land management practices on spillover and transmission rates of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases within Malaysian Borneo. This protocol describes a cohort study with integrated ecological sampling to assess how deforestation and agricultural practices impact pathogen flow from wildlife and vector populations to human infection and detection by health facilities. This will focus on malaria, dengue and emerging arboviruses (Chikungunya and Zika), vector-borne diseases with varying contributions of simian reservoirs within this setting. Methods. A prospective longitudinal observational cohort study will be established in communities residing or working within the vicinity of the Stability of Altered Forest Ecosystems (SAFE) Project, a landscape gradient within Malaysian Borneo encompassing different plantation and forest types. The primary outcome of this study will be transmission intensity of selected zoonotic and vector-borne diseases, as quantified by changes in pathogen-specific antibody levels. Exposure will be measured using paired population-based serological surveys conducted at the beginning and end of the two-year cohort study. Secondary outcomes will include the distribution and infection rates of Aedes and Anopheles mosquito vectors, human risk behaviours and clinical cases reported to health facilities. Longitudinal data on human behaviour, contact with wildlife and GPS tracking of mobility patterns will be collected throughout the study period. This will be integrated with entomological surveillance to monitor densities and pathogen infection rates of Aedes and Anopheles mosquitoes relative to land cover. Within surrounding health clinics, continuous health facility surveillance will be used to monitor reported infections and febrile illnesses. Models will be developed to assess spillover and transmission rates relative to specific land management practices and evaluate abilities of surveillance systems to capture these risks.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kimberly Fornace
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
- Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Benny Obrain Manin
- Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Heather M. Ferguson
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Chris Drakeley
- Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Kamruddin Ahmed
- Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia
| | - Koay Teng Khoon
- Sabah State Health Department, Ministry of Health, Malaysia, Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia
| | | | - Sylvia Daim
- Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia
- East Malaysia Zoonotic and Infectious Diseases Society, Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia
| | - Tock Hing Chua
- Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia
- East Malaysia Zoonotic and Infectious Diseases Society, Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia
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17
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Matthiopoulos J, Wakefield E, Jeglinski JWE, Furness RW, Trinder M, Tyler G, Mccluskie A, Allen S, Braithwaite J, Evans T. Integrated modelling of seabird‐habitat associations from multi‐platform data: A review. J Appl Ecol 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.14114] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Jason Matthiopoulos
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative Medicine College of Medical, Veterinary & Life Sciences, Graham Kerr Building, University of Glasgow Glasgow Scotland
- MacArthur Green Glasgow Scotland
| | - Ewan Wakefield
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative Medicine College of Medical, Veterinary & Life Sciences, Graham Kerr Building, University of Glasgow Glasgow Scotland
| | - Jana W. E. Jeglinski
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative Medicine College of Medical, Veterinary & Life Sciences, Graham Kerr Building, University of Glasgow Glasgow Scotland
| | | | | | | | - Aly Mccluskie
- RSPB Centre for Conservation Science RSPB, Etive House, Beechwood Park Inverness Scotland
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18
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Sanou A, Nelli L, Guelbéogo WM, Cissé F, Tapsoba M, Ouédraogo P, Sagnon N, Ranson H, Matthiopoulos J, Ferguson HM. Insecticide resistance and behavioural adaptation as a response to long-lasting insecticidal net deployment in malaria vectors in the Cascades region of Burkina Faso. Sci Rep 2021; 11:17569. [PMID: 34475470 PMCID: PMC8413378 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-96759-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2021] [Accepted: 08/12/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
The decline in malaria across Africa has been largely attributed to vector control using long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs). However, this intervention has prompted widespread insecticide resistance (IR) and been associated with changes in mosquito behaviour that reduce their contact with LLINs. The relative importance and rate at which IR and behavioural adaptations emerge are poorly understood. We conducted surveillance of mosquito behaviour and IR at 12 sites in Burkina Faso to assess the magnitude and temporal dynamics of insecticide, biting and resting behaviours in vectors in the 2-year period following mass LLIN distribution. Insecticide resistance was present in all vector populations and increased rapidly over the study period. In contrast, no longitudinal shifts in LLIN-avoidance behaviours (earlier or outdoor biting and resting) were detected. There was a moderate but statistically significant shift in vector species composition from Anopheles coluzzii to Anopheles gambiae which coincided with a reduction in the proportion of bites preventable by LLINs; possibly driven by between-species variation in behaviour. These findings indicate that adaptations based on insecticide resistance arise and intensify more rapidly than behavioural shifts within mosquito vectors. However, longitudinal shifts in mosquito vector species composition were evident within 2 years following a mass LLIN distribution. This ecological shift was characterized by a significant increase in the exophagic species (An. gambiae) and coincided with a predicted decline in the degree of protection expected from LLINs. Although human exposure fell through the study period due to reducing vector densities and infection rates, such ecological shifts in vector species along with insecticide resistance were likely to have eroded the efficacy of LLINs. While both adaptations impact malaria control, the rapid increase of the former indicates this strategy develops more quickly in response to selection from LLINS. However, interventions targeting both resistance strategies will be needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Antoine Sanou
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Graham Kerr Building, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK.
- Centre National de Recherche et de Formation sur le Paludisme, Av. Kunda Yonré, PO Box 2208, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
| | - Luca Nelli
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Graham Kerr Building, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK
| | - W Moussa Guelbéogo
- Centre National de Recherche et de Formation sur le Paludisme, Av. Kunda Yonré, PO Box 2208, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - Fatoumata Cissé
- Centre National de Recherche et de Formation sur le Paludisme, Av. Kunda Yonré, PO Box 2208, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - Madou Tapsoba
- Centre National de Recherche et de Formation sur le Paludisme, Av. Kunda Yonré, PO Box 2208, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - Pierre Ouédraogo
- Centre National de Recherche et de Formation sur le Paludisme, Av. Kunda Yonré, PO Box 2208, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - N'falé Sagnon
- Centre National de Recherche et de Formation sur le Paludisme, Av. Kunda Yonré, PO Box 2208, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - Hilary Ranson
- Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Pembroke Place, Liverpool, L3 5QA, UK
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Graham Kerr Building, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK
| | - Heather M Ferguson
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Graham Kerr Building, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK
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Aarts G, Mul E, Fieberg J, Brasseur S, van Gils JA, Matthiopoulos J, Riotte-Lambert L. Individual-Level Memory Is Sufficient to Create Spatial Segregation among Neighboring Colonies of Central Place Foragers. Am Nat 2021; 198:E37-E52. [PMID: 34260868 DOI: 10.1086/715014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Abstract
AbstractCentral place foragers often segregate in space, even without signs of direct agonistic interactions. Using parsimonious individual-based simulations, we show that for species with spatial cognitive abilities, individual-level memory of resource availability can be sufficient to cause spatial segregation in the foraging ranges of colonial animals. The shapes of the foraging distributions are governed by commuting costs, the emerging distribution of depleted resources, and the fidelity of foragers to their colonies. When colony fidelity is weak and foragers can easily switch to colonies located closer to favorable foraging grounds, this leads to space partitioning with equidistant borders between neighboring colonies. In contrast, when colony fidelity is strong-for example, because larger colonies provide safety in numbers or individuals are unable to leave-it can create a regional imbalance between resource requirements and resource availability. This leads to nontrivial space-use patterns that propagate through the landscape. Interestingly, while better spatial memory creates more defined boundaries between neighboring colonies, it can lower the average intake rate of the population, suggesting a potential trade-off between an individual's attempt for increased intake and population growth rates.
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Sarker SK, Reeve R, Matthiopoulos J. Solving the fourth‐corner problem: forecasting ecosystem primary production from spatial multispecies trait‐based models. ECOL MONOGR 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1454] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Swapan Kumar Sarker
- Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences University of Glasgow Glasgow G12 8QQ UK
- Department of Forestry & Environmental Science Shahjalal University of Science & Technology Sylhet 3114 Bangladesh
| | - Richard Reeve
- Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences University of Glasgow Glasgow G12 8QQ UK
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences University of Glasgow Glasgow G12 8QQ UK
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21
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Horswill C, Manica A, Daunt F, Newell M, Wanless S, Wood M, Matthiopoulos J. Improving assessments of data‐limited populations using life‐history theory. J Appl Ecol 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13863] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Cat Horswill
- Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health & Comparative Medicine University of Glasgow Glasgow UK
- Department of Zoology University of Cambridge Cambridge UK
- ZSL Institute of Zoology London UK
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environmental Research Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment University College London London UK
| | - Andrea Manica
- Department of Zoology University of Cambridge Cambridge UK
| | | | - Mark Newell
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology Penicuik UK
| | | | - Matthew Wood
- School of Natural and Social Sciences University of Gloucestershire Cheltenham UK
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health & Comparative Medicine University of Glasgow Glasgow UK
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22
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Ngowo HS, Hape EE, Matthiopoulos J, Ferguson HM, Okumu FO. Fitness characteristics of the malaria vector Anopheles funestus during an attempted laboratory colonization. Malar J 2021; 20:148. [PMID: 33712003 PMCID: PMC7955623 DOI: 10.1186/s12936-021-03677-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/05/2020] [Accepted: 03/01/2021] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The malaria vector Anopheles funestus is increasingly recognized as a dominant vector of residual transmission in many African settings. Efforts to better understand its biology and control are significantly impeded by the difficulties of colonizing it under laboratory conditions. To identify key bottlenecks in colonization, this study compared the development and fitness characteristics of wild An. funestus from Tanzania (FUTAZ) and their F1 offspring during colonization attempts. The demography and reproductive success of wild FUTAZ offspring were compared to that of individuals from one of the only An. funestus strains that has been successfully colonized (FUMOZ, from Mozambique) under similar laboratory conditions. METHODS Wild An. funestus (FUTAZ) were collected from three Tanzanian villages and maintained inside an insectary at 70-85% RH, 25-27 °C and 12 h:12 h photoperiod. Eggs from these females were used to establish three replicate F1 laboratory generations. Larval development, survival, fecundity, mating success, percentage pupation and wing length were measured in the F1 -FUTAZ offspring and compared with wild FUTAZ and FUMOZ mosquitoes. RESULTS Wild FUTAZ laid fewer eggs (64.1; 95% CI [63.2, 65.0]) than FUMOZ females (76.1; 95% CI [73.3, 79.1]). Survival of F1-FUTAZ larvae under laboratory conditions was low, with an egg-to-pupae conversion rate of only 5.9% compared to 27.4% in FUMOZ. The median lifespan of F1-FUTAZ females (32 days) and males (33 days) was lower than FUMOZ (52 and 49 for females and males respectively). The proportion of female F1-FUTAZ inseminated under laboratory conditions (9%) was considerably lower than either FUMOZ (72%) or wild-caught FUTAZ females (92%). This resulted in nearly zero viable F2-FUTAZ eggs produced. Wild FUTAZ wings appear to be larger compared to the lab reared F1-FUTAZ and FUMOZ. CONCLUSIONS This study indicates that poor larval survival, mating success, low fecundity and shorter survival under laboratory conditions all contribute to difficulties in colonizing of An. funestus. Future studies should focus on enhancing these aspects of An. funestus fitness in the laboratory, with the biggest barrier likely to be poor mating.
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Affiliation(s)
- Halfan S Ngowo
- Department of Environmental Health and Ecological Sciences, Ifakara Health Institute, P.O. Box 53, Ifakara, Tanzania. .,Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12, 8QQ, UK.
| | - Emmanuel E Hape
- Department of Environmental Health and Ecological Sciences, Ifakara Health Institute, P.O. Box 53, Ifakara, Tanzania.,Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12, 8QQ, UK
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12, 8QQ, UK
| | - Heather M Ferguson
- Department of Environmental Health and Ecological Sciences, Ifakara Health Institute, P.O. Box 53, Ifakara, Tanzania.,Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12, 8QQ, UK
| | - Fredros O Okumu
- Department of Environmental Health and Ecological Sciences, Ifakara Health Institute, P.O. Box 53, Ifakara, Tanzania.,Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12, 8QQ, UK.,School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, 1 Smuts Avenue, Braamfontein, 2000, Republic of South Africa.,School of Life Science and Bioengineering, Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 447, Arusha, Tanzania
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Hanlon P, Chadwick F, Shah A, Wood R, Minton J, McCartney G, Fischbacher C, Mair FS, Husmeier D, Matthiopoulos J, McAllister DA. COVID-19 - exploring the implications of long-term condition type and extent of multimorbidity on years of life lost: a modelling study. Wellcome Open Res 2021; 5:75. [PMID: 33709037 PMCID: PMC7927210 DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15849.3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 31] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 02/22/2021] [Indexed: 01/19/2023] Open
Abstract
Background: COVID-19 is responsible for increasing deaths globally. As most people dying with COVID-19 are older with underlying long-term conditions (LTCs), some speculate that YLL are low. We aim to estimate YLL attributable to COVID-19, before and after adjustment for number/type of LTCs, using the limited data available early in the pandemic. Methods: We first estimated YLL from COVID-19 using WHO life tables, based on published age/sex data from COVID-19 deaths in Italy. We then used aggregate data on number/type of LTCs in a Bayesian model to estimate likely combinations of LTCs among people dying with COVID-19. We used routine UK healthcare data from Scotland and Wales to estimate life expectancy based on age/sex/these combinations of LTCs using Gompertz models from which we then estimate YLL. Results: Using the standard WHO life tables, YLL per COVID-19 death was 14 for men and 12 for women. After adjustment for number and type of LTCs, the mean YLL was slightly lower, but remained high (11.6 and 9.4 years for men and women, respectively). The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and <3 years for people with ≥6). Conclusions: Deaths from COVID-19 represent a substantial burden in terms of per-person YLL, more than a decade, even after adjusting for the typical number and type of LTCs found in people dying of COVID-19. The extent of multimorbidity heavily influences the estimated YLL at a given age. More comprehensive and standardised collection of data (including LTC type, severity, and potential confounders such as socioeconomic-deprivation and care-home status) is needed to optimise YLL estimates for specific populations, and to understand the global burden of COVID-19, and guide policy-making and interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | - Gerry McCartney
- Scottish Public Health Observatory, NHS Health Scotland, Glasgow, UK
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Hanlon P, Chadwick F, Shah A, Wood R, Minton J, McCartney G, Fischbacher C, Mair FS, Husmeier D, Matthiopoulos J, McAllister DA. COVID-19 - exploring the implications of long-term condition type and extent of multimorbidity on years of life lost: a modelling study. Wellcome Open Res 2021; 5:75. [PMID: 33709037 PMCID: PMC7927210 DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15849.2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 02/01/2021] [Indexed: 11/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Background: COVID-19 is responsible for increasing deaths globally. Estimates focused on numbers of deaths, do not quantify potential years of life lost (YLL) through COVID-19. As most people dying with COVID-19 are older with underlying long-term conditions (LTCs), some speculate that YLL are low. We aim to estimate YLL attributable to COVID-19, before and after adjustment for number/type of LTCs. Methods: We first estimated YLL from COVID-19 using WHO life tables, based on published age/sex data from COVID-19 deaths in Italy. We then used aggregate data on number/type of LTCs inform a Bayesian model for likely combinations of LTCs among people dying with COVID-19. From these, we used routine UK healthcare data from Scotland and Wales to estimate life expectancy based on age/sex/ combinations of LTCs using Gompertz models. We then calculated YLL based on age, sex, type of LTCs and multimorbidity count. Results: Using the standard WHO life tables, YLL per COVID-19 death was 14 for men and 12 for women. After adjustment for number and type of LTCs, the mean YLL was slightly lower, but remained high (11.6 and 9.4 years for man and women, respectively). The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and <3 years for people with ≥6). Conclusions: Deaths from COVID-19 represent a substantial burden in terms of per-person YLL, more than a decade, even after adjusting for the typical number and type of LTCs found in people dying of COVID-19. The extent of multimorbidity heavily influences the estimated YLL at a given age. More comprehensive and standardised collection of data on LTCs is needed to better understand and quantify the global burden of COVID-19 and to guide policy-making and interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | - Gerry McCartney
- Scottish Public Health Observatory, NHS Health Scotland, Glasgow, UK
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Powell LL, Ames EM, Wright JR, Matthiopoulos J, Marra PP. Interspecific competition between resident and wintering birds: experimental evidence and consequences of coexistence. Ecology 2021; 102:e03208. [PMID: 32981090 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3208] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/17/2020] [Revised: 07/08/2020] [Accepted: 08/07/2020] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Abstract
The contribution of interspecific competition to structuring population and community dynamics remains controversial and poorly tested. Interspecific competition has long been thought to influence the structure of migrant-resident bird communities in winter, yet experimental evidence remains elusive. The arrival of billions of songbirds into Neotropical habitats, where they co-exist with residents, provides a unique opportunity to assess interspecific competition and its consequences. Working in 15 ha of Jamaican black mangrove forest, we used removal experiments to test whether dominant resident Yellow Warblers compete interspecifically with subordinate wintering American Redstarts; we also used observational evidence (interspecific territorial overlap) to understand whether this coexistence influences physical condition, spring departure dates or annual return rates. Consistent with interspecific competition, after experimental removal of the resident, yearling male Redstarts (but not females or adult males) immediately moved into vacated Yellow Warbler territories, increasing their overlap with the space by 7.3%. Yearling Redstarts also appeared to adjust their territorial space use by actively avoiding Yellow Warblers; for example, Redstarts departing the wintering grounds as yearlings and returning the following winter shifted such that their territories overlapped 32% less with those of Yellow Warblers. Adult Redstarts showed no such territorial flexibility. Adult male Redstarts also showed evidence supporting the consequences of coexistence: territorial overlap with Yellow Warblers was negatively correlated with body condition and annual return rates. Adult male Redstarts with <25% territorial overlap with Yellow Warblers were more than three times as likely to return between seasons than those with 100% overlap. We propose that the territorial inflexibility of adult male Redstarts produces these consequences, which may be due to their years-long investment in that particular territory. More generally, the temporary nature of migrant-resident interspecific competition is likely what allows coexistence during winter, the most resource-poor time of year. Interspecific competition and the consequences of coexistence are likely age- and sex-specific and the product of intraspecific dominance hierarchy in Redstarts. Our observations suggest that interspecific coexistence has measurable consequences, and our experiments support the long-held, but previously untested belief that resident birds compete interspecifically with wintering migrants.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luke L Powell
- Migratory Bird Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological 7 Park, P.O. Box 37012, Washington, D.C., 20013-7012, USA.,Institute of Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G128QQ, United Kingdom
| | - Elizabeth M Ames
- Migratory Bird Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological 7 Park, P.O. Box 37012, Washington, D.C., 20013-7012, USA
| | - James R Wright
- Migratory Bird Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological 7 Park, P.O. Box 37012, Washington, D.C., 20013-7012, USA
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- Institute of Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G128QQ, United Kingdom
| | - Peter P Marra
- Migratory Bird Center, Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, National Zoological 7 Park, P.O. Box 37012, Washington, D.C., 20013-7012, USA
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Matthiopoulos J, Fieberg J, Aarts G, Barraquand F, Kendall BE. Within Reach? Habitat Availability as a Function of Individual Mobility and Spatial Structuring. Am Nat 2020; 195:1009-1026. [PMID: 32469662 DOI: 10.1086/708519] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/04/2022]
Abstract
Organisms need access to particular habitats for their survival and reproduction. However, even if all necessary habitats are available within the broader environment, they may not all be easily reachable from the position of a single individual. Many species distribution models consider populations in environmental (or niche) space, hence overlooking this fundamental aspect of geographical accessibility. Here, we develop a formal way of thinking about habitat availability in environmental spaces by describing how limitations in accessibility can cause animals to experience a more limited or simply different mixture of habitats than those more broadly available. We develop an analytical framework for characterizing constrained habitat availability based on the statistical properties of movement and environmental autocorrelation. Using simulation experiments, we show that our general statistical representation of constrained availability is a good approximation of habitat availability for particular realizations of landscape-organism interactions. We present two applications of our approach, one to the statistical analysis of habitat preference (using step-selection functions to analyze harbor seal telemetry data) and a second that derives theoretical insights about population viability from knowledge of the underlying environment. Analytical expressions for habitat availability, such as those we develop here, can yield gains in analytical speed, biological realism, and conceptual generality by allowing us to formulate models that are habitat sensitive without needing to be spatially explicit.
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Baker L, Matthiopoulos J, Müller T, Freuling C, Hampson K. Local rabies transmission and regional spatial coupling in European foxes. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0220592. [PMID: 32469961 PMCID: PMC7259497 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0220592] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/16/2019] [Accepted: 05/12/2020] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Infectious diseases are often transmitted through local interactions. Yet, both surveillance and control measures are implemented within administrative units. Capturing local transmission processes and spatial coupling between regions from aggregate level data is therefore a technical challenge that can shed light on both theoretical questions and practical decisions. Fox rabies has been eliminated from much of Europe through oral rabies vaccination (ORV) programmes. The European Union (EU) co-finances ORV to maintain rabies freedom in EU member and border states via a cordon sanitaire. Models to capture local transmission dynamics and spatial coupling have immediate application to the planning of these ORV campaigns and to other parts of the world considering oral vaccination. We fitted a hierarchical Bayesian state-space model to data on three decades of fox rabies cases and ORV campaigns from Eastern Germany. Specifically, we find that (i) combining regional spatial coupling and heterogeneous local transmission allows us to capture regional rabies dynamics; (ii) incursions from other regions account for less than 1% of cases, but allow for re-emergence of disease; (iii) herd immunity achieved through bi-annual vaccination campaigns is short-lived due to population turnover. Together, these findings highlight the need for regular and sustained vaccination efforts and our modelling approach can be used to provide strategic guidance for ORV delivery. Moreover, we show that biological understanding can be gained from inference from partially observed data on wildlife disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laurie Baker
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health, and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health, and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland
| | - Thomas Müller
- Institute of Epidemiology, Friedrich Loeffler Institute, Isle of Reims, Greifswald, Germany
| | - Conrad Freuling
- Institute of Epidemiology, Friedrich Loeffler Institute, Isle of Reims, Greifswald, Germany
| | - Katie Hampson
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health, and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland
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Baker L, Matthiopoulos J, Müller T, Freuling C, Hampson K. Optimizing spatial and seasonal deployment of vaccination campaigns to eliminate wildlife rabies. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2020; 374:20180280. [PMID: 31104608 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2018.0280] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding how the spatial deployment of interventions affects elimination time horizons and potential for disease re-emergence has broad application to control programmes targeting human, animal and plant pathogens. We previously developed an epidemiological model that captures the main features of rabies spread and the impacts of vaccination based on detailed records of fox rabies in eastern Germany during the implementation of an oral rabies vaccination (ORV) programme. Here, we use simulations from this fitted model to determine the best vaccination strategy, in terms of spatial placement and timing of ORV efforts, for three epidemiological scenarios representative of current situations in Europe. We found that consecutive and comprehensive twice-yearly vaccinations across all regions rapidly controlled and eliminated rabies and that the autumn campaigns had the greater impact on increasing the probability of elimination. This appears to result from the need to maintain sufficient herd immunity in the face of large birth pulses, as autumn vaccinations reach susceptible juveniles and therefore a larger proportion of the population than spring vaccinations. Incomplete vaccination compromised time to elimination requiring the same or more vaccination effort to meet similar timelines. Our results have important practical implications that could inform policies for rabies containment and elimination in Europe and elsewhere. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laurie Baker
- 1 Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute for Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow , Glasgow G12 8QQ , UK
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- 1 Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute for Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow , Glasgow G12 8QQ , UK
| | - Thomas Müller
- 2 Institute of Molecular Virology and Cell Biology, Friedrich Loeffler Institute, WHO Collaborating Centre for Rabies Surveillance and Research , 17493 Greifswald - Insel Riems , Germany
| | - Conrad Freuling
- 2 Institute of Molecular Virology and Cell Biology, Friedrich Loeffler Institute, WHO Collaborating Centre for Rabies Surveillance and Research , 17493 Greifswald - Insel Riems , Germany
| | - Katie Hampson
- 1 Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute for Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow , Glasgow G12 8QQ , UK
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Hanlon P, Chadwick F, Shah A, Wood R, Minton J, McCartney G, Fischbacher C, Mair FS, Husmeier D, Matthiopoulos J, McAllister DA. COVID-19 - exploring the implications of long-term condition type and extent of multimorbidity on years of life lost: a modelling study. Wellcome Open Res 2020; 5:75. [PMID: 33709037 PMCID: PMC7927210 DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15849.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 55] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 04/15/2020] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is responsible for increasing deaths globally. Most estimates have focused on numbers of deaths, with little direct quantification of years of life lost (YLL) through COVID-19. As most people dying with COVID-19 are older with underlying long-term conditions (LTCs), some have speculated that YLL are low. We aim to estimate YLL attributable to COVID-19, before and after adjustment for number/type of LTCs. Methods: We first estimated YLL from COVID-19 using standard WHO life tables, based on published age/sex data from COVID-19 deaths in Italy. We then used aggregate data on number/type of LTCs to model likely combinations of LTCs among people dying with COVID-19. From these, we used routine UK healthcare data to estimate life expectancy based on age/sex/different combinations of LTCs. We then calculated YLL based on age, sex and type of LTCs and multimorbidity count. Results: Using the standard WHO life tables, YLL per COVID-19 death was 14 for men and 12 for women. After adjustment for number and type of LTCs, the mean YLL was slightly lower, but remained high (13 and 11 years for men and women, respectively). The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and <3 years for people with ≥6). Conclusions: Deaths from COVID-19 represent a substantial burden in terms of per-person YLL, more than a decade, even after adjusting for the typical number and type of LTCs found in people dying of COVID-19. The extent of multimorbidity heavily influences the estimated YLL at a given age. More comprehensive and standardised collection of data on LTCs is needed to better understand and quantify the global burden of COVID-19 and to guide policy-making and interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | - Gerry McCartney
- Scottish Public Health Observatory, NHS Health Scotland, Glasgow, UK
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30
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Nelli L, Guelbeogo M, Ferguson HM, Ouattara D, Tiono A, N'Fale S, Matthiopoulos J. Distance sampling for epidemiology: an interactive tool for estimating under-reporting of cases from clinic data. Int J Health Geogr 2020; 19:16. [PMID: 32312266 PMCID: PMC7171748 DOI: 10.1186/s12942-020-00209-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/20/2019] [Accepted: 04/09/2020] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Distance sampling methods are widely used in ecology to estimate and map the abundance of animal and plant populations from spatial survey data. The key underlying concept in distance sampling is the detection function, the probability of detecting the occurrence of an event as a function of its distance from the observer, as well as other covariates that may influence detection. In epidemiology, the burden and distribution of infectious disease is often inferred from cases that are reported at clinics and hospitals. In areas with few public health facilities and low accessibility, the probability of detecting a case is also a function of the distance between an infected person and the "observer" (e.g. a health centre). While the problem of distance-related under-reporting is acknowledged in public health; there are few quantitative methods for assessing and correcting for this bias when mapping disease incidence. Here, we develop a modified version of distance sampling for prediction of infectious disease incidence by relaxing some of the framework's fundamental assumptions. We illustrate the utility of this approach using as our example malaria distribution in rural Burkina Faso, where there is a large population at risk but relatively low accessibility of health facilities. RESULTS The modified distance-sampling framework was used to predict the probability of reporting malaria infection at 8 rural clinics, based on road-travel distances from villages. The rate at which reporting probability dropped with distance varied between clinics, depending on road and clinic positions. The probability of case detection was estimated as 0.3-1 in the immediate vicinity of the clinic, dropping to 0.1-0.6 at a travel distance of 10 km, and effectively zero at distances > 30-40 km. CONCLUSIONS To enhance the method's strategic impact, we provide an interactive mapping tool (as a self-contained R Shiny app) that can be used by non-specialists to interrogate model outputs and visualize how the overall probability of under-reporting and the catchment area of each clinic is influenced by changing the number and spatial allocation of health centres.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luca Nelli
- University of Glasgow, Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, Glasgow, UK.
| | - Moussa Guelbeogo
- Centre National De Recherche et Formation sur le Paludisme, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - Heather M Ferguson
- University of Glasgow, Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, Glasgow, UK
| | - Daouda Ouattara
- Centre National De Recherche et Formation sur le Paludisme, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - Alfred Tiono
- Centre National De Recherche et Formation sur le Paludisme, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - Sagnon N'Fale
- Centre National De Recherche et Formation sur le Paludisme, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- University of Glasgow, Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, Glasgow, UK
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Abstract
The need to understand the impacts of land management for conservation, agriculture and disease prevention are driving demand for new predictive ecology approaches that can reliably forecast future changes in population size. Currently, although the link between habitat composition and animal population dynamics is undisputed, its function has not been quantified in a way that enables accurate prediction of population change in nature. Here, using 12 house sparrow colonies as a proof-of-concept, we apply recent theoretical advances to predict population growth or decline from detailed data on habitat composition and habitat selection. We show, for the first time, that statistical population models using derived covariates constructed from parametric descriptions of habitat composition and habitat selection can explain an impressive 92% of observed population variation. More importantly, they provide excellent predictive power under cross-validation, anticipating 81% of variability in population change. These models may be embedded in readily available generalized linear modelling frameworks, allowing their rapid application to field systems. Furthermore, we use optimization on our sample of sparrow colonies to demonstrate how such models, linking populations to their habitats, permit the design of practical and environmentally sound habitat manipulations for managing populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jason Matthiopoulos
- 1 Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow , Room 312, Graham Kerr Building, Glasgow G12 8QQ , UK
| | - Christopher Field
- 1 Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow , Room 312, Graham Kerr Building, Glasgow G12 8QQ , UK
| | - Ross MacLeod
- 1 Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow , Room 312, Graham Kerr Building, Glasgow G12 8QQ , UK.,2 School of Natural Sciences and Psychology, Liverpool John Moores University, Byrom Street, Liverpool L3 3AF, UK
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Michelot T, Blackwell PG, Chamaillé-Jammes S, Matthiopoulos J. Inference in MCMC step selection models. Biometrics 2019; 76:438-447. [PMID: 31654395 DOI: 10.1111/biom.13170] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2018] [Revised: 10/05/2019] [Accepted: 10/08/2019] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Habitat selection models are used in ecology to link the spatial distribution of animals to environmental covariates and identify preferred habitats. The most widely used models of this type, resource selection functions, aim to capture the steady-state distribution of space use of the animal, but they assume independence between the observed locations of an animal. This is unrealistic when location data display temporal autocorrelation. The alternative approach of step selection functions embed habitat selection in a model of animal movement, to account for the autocorrelation. However, inferences from step selection functions depend on the underlying movement model, and they do not readily predict steady-state space use. We suggest an analogy between parameter updates and target distributions in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, and step selection and steady-state distributions in movement ecology, leading to a step selection model with an explicit steady-state distribution. In this framework, we explain how maximum likelihood estimation can be used for simultaneous inference about movement and habitat selection. We describe the local Gibbs sampler, a novel rejection-free MCMC scheme, use it as the basis of a flexible class of animal movement models, and derive its likelihood function for several important special cases. In a simulation study, we verify that maximum likelihood estimation can recover all model parameters. We illustrate the application of the method with data from a zebra.
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Affiliation(s)
- Théo Michelot
- Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK
| | - Paul G Blackwell
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - Simon Chamaillé-Jammes
- CEFE, CNRS, Université de Montpellier, Université Paul Valéry Montpellier, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
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Sanou A, Moussa Guelbéogo W, Nelli L, Hyacinth Toé K, Zongo S, Ouédraogo P, Cissé F, Mirzai N, Matthiopoulos J, Sagnon N, Ferguson HM. Evaluation of mosquito electrocuting traps as a safe alternative to the human landing catch for measuring human exposure to malaria vectors in Burkina Faso. Malar J 2019; 18:386. [PMID: 31791336 PMCID: PMC6889701 DOI: 10.1186/s12936-019-3030-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/03/2019] [Accepted: 11/24/2019] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Measuring human exposure to mosquito bites is a crucial component of vector-borne disease surveillance. For malaria vectors, the human landing catch (HLC) remains the gold standard for direct estimation of exposure. This method, however, is controversial since participants risk exposure to potentially infected mosquito bites. Recently an exposure-free mosquito electrocuting trap (MET) was developed to provide a safer alternative to the HLC. Early prototypes of the MET performed well in Tanzania but have yet to be tested in West Africa, where malaria vector species composition, ecology and behaviour are different. The performance of the MET relative to HLC for characterizing mosquito vector population dynamics and biting behaviour in Burkina Faso was evaluated. METHODS A longitudinal study was initiated within 12 villages in Burkina Faso in October 2016. Host-seeking mosquitoes were sampled monthly using HLC and MET collections over 14 months. Collections were made at 4 households on each night, with METs deployed inside and outside at 2 houses, and HLC inside and outside at another two. Malaria vector abundance, species composition, sporozoite rate and location of biting (indoor versus outdoor) were recorded. RESULTS In total, 41,800 mosquitoes were collected over 324 sampling nights, with the major malaria vector being Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) complex. Overall the MET caught fewer An. gambiae s.l. than the HLC (mean predicted number of 0.78 versus 1.82 indoors, and 1.05 versus 2.04 outdoors). However, MET collections gave a consistent representation of seasonal dynamics in vector populations, species composition, biting behaviour (location and time) and malaria infection rates relative to HLC. As the relative performance of the MET was somewhat higher in outdoor versus indoor settings, this trapping method slightly underestimated the proportion of bites preventable by LLINs compared to the HLC (MET = 82.08%; HLC = 87.19%). CONCLUSIONS The MET collected proportionately fewer mosquitoes than the HLC. However, estimates of An. gambiae s.l. density in METs were highly correlated with HLC. Thus, although less sensitive, the MET is a safer alternative than the HLC. Its use is recommended particularly for sampling vectors in outdoor environments where it is most sensitive.
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Affiliation(s)
- Antoine Sanou
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Graham Kerr Building, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK.
- Centre National de Recherche et de Formation sur le Paludisme, Av. Kunda nyooré, PO Box 2208, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
| | - W Moussa Guelbéogo
- Centre National de Recherche et de Formation sur le Paludisme, Av. Kunda nyooré, PO Box 2208, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - Luca Nelli
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Graham Kerr Building, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK
| | - K Hyacinth Toé
- Centre National de Recherche et de Formation sur le Paludisme, Av. Kunda nyooré, PO Box 2208, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - Soumanaba Zongo
- Centre National de Recherche et de Formation sur le Paludisme, Av. Kunda nyooré, PO Box 2208, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - Pierre Ouédraogo
- Centre National de Recherche et de Formation sur le Paludisme, Av. Kunda nyooré, PO Box 2208, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - Fatoumata Cissé
- Centre National de Recherche et de Formation sur le Paludisme, Av. Kunda nyooré, PO Box 2208, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - Nosrat Mirzai
- Bioelectronics Units, University of Glasgow, Graham Kerr Building, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Graham Kerr Building, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK
| | - N'falé Sagnon
- Centre National de Recherche et de Formation sur le Paludisme, Av. Kunda nyooré, PO Box 2208, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
| | - Heather M Ferguson
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Graham Kerr Building, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK
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Sarker SK, Matthiopoulos J, Mitchell SN, Ahmed ZU, Mamun MBA, Reeve R. 1980s-2010s: The world's largest mangrove ecosystem is becoming homogeneous. Biol Conserv 2019; 236:79-91. [PMID: 31496538 PMCID: PMC6716549 DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2019.05.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2018] [Revised: 03/21/2019] [Accepted: 05/09/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Knowledge gaps in spatiotemporal changes in mangrove diversity and composition have obstructed mangrove conservation programs across the tropics, but particularly in the Sundarbans (10,017 km2), the world's largest remaining natural mangrove ecosystem. Using mangrove tree data collected from Earth's largest permanent sample plot network at four historical time points (1986, 1994, 1999 and 2014), this study establishes spatially explicit baseline biodiversity information for the Sundarbans. We determined the spatial and temporal differences in alpha, beta, and gamma diversity in three ecological zones (hypo-, meso-, and hypersaline) and also uncovered changes in the mangroves' overall geographic range and abundances therein. Spatially, the hyposaline mangrove communities were the most diverse and heterogeneous in species composition while the hypersaline communities were the least diverse and most homogeneous at all historical time points. Since 1986, we detect an increasing trend of compositional homogeneity (between-site similarity in species composition) and a significant spatial contraction of distinct and diverse areas over the entire ecosystem. Temporally, the western and southern hypersaline communities have undergone radical shifts in species composition due to population increase and range expansion of the native invasive species Ceriops decandra and local extinction or range contraction of specialists including the globally endangered Heritiera fomes. The surviving biodiversity hotspots are distributed outside the legislated protected area network. In addition to suggesting the immediate coverage of these hotspots under protected area management, our novel biodiversity insights and spatial maps can form the basis for spatial conservation planning, biodiversity monitoring and protection initiatives for the Sundarbans.
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Affiliation(s)
- Swapan Kumar Sarker
- Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, United Kingdom
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, United Kingdom
| | - Sonia N. Mitchell
- Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, United Kingdom
| | - Zahir Uddin Ahmed
- Planning Wing, Bangladesh Forest Department, Ban Bhaban, Agargaon, Dhaka 1207, Bangladesh
| | - Md. Bashirul Al Mamun
- Sundarbans West Forest Division, Bangladesh Forest Department, Khulna 9100, Bangladesh
| | - Richard Reeve
- Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, United Kingdom
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Miller JAO, Furness RW, Trinder M, Matthiopoulos J. The sensitivity of seabird populations to density‐dependence, environmental stochasticity and anthropogenic mortality. J Appl Ecol 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13448] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Julie A. O. Miller
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine University of Glasgow Glasgow UK
| | | | | | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine University of Glasgow Glasgow UK
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Nelli L, Ferguson HM, Matthiopoulos J. Achieving explanatory depth and spatial breadth in infectious disease modelling: Integrating active and passive case surveillance. Stat Methods Med Res 2019; 29:1273-1287. [PMID: 31213191 DOI: 10.1177/0962280219856380] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
Ideally, the data used for robust spatial prediction of disease distribution should be both high-resolution and spatially expansive. However, such in-depth and geographically broad data are rarely available in practice. Instead, researchers usually acquire either detailed epidemiological data with high resolution at a small number of active sampling sites, or more broad-ranging but less precise data from passive case surveillance. We propose a novel inferential framework, capable of simultaneously drawing insights from both passive and active data types. We developed a Bayesian latent point process approach, combining active data collection in a limited set of points, where in-depth covariates are measured, with passive case detection, where error-prone, large-scale disease data are accompanied only by coarse or remotely-sensed covariate layers. Using the example of malaria, we tested our method's efficiency under several hypothetical scenarios of reported incidence in different combinations of imperfect detection and spatial complexity of the environmental variables. We provide a simple solution to a widespread problem in spatial epidemiology, combining latent process modelling and spatially autoregressive modelling. By using active sampling and passive case detection in a complementary way, we achieved the best-of-both-worlds, in effect, a formal calibration of spatially extensive, error-prone data by localised, high-quality data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luca Nelli
- Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Heather M Ferguson
- Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
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Horswill C, Kindsvater HK, Juan‐Jordá MJ, Dulvy NK, Mangel M, Matthiopoulos J. Global reconstruction of life-history strategies: A case study using tunas. J Appl Ecol 2019; 56:855-865. [PMID: 31217633 PMCID: PMC6559282 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.13327] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2018] [Accepted: 11/06/2018] [Indexed: 01/16/2023]
Abstract
Measuring the demographic parameters of exploited populations is central to predicting their vulnerability and extinction risk. However, current rates of population decline and species loss greatly outpace our ability to empirically monitor all populations that are potentially threatened.The scale of this problem cannot be addressed through additional data collection alone, and therefore it is a common practice to conduct population assessments based on surrogate data collected from similar species. However, this approach introduces biases and imprecisions that are difficult to quantify. Recent developments in hierarchical modelling have enabled missing values to be reconstructed based on the correlations between available life-history data, linking similar species based on phylogeny and environmental conditions.However, these methods cannot resolve life-history variability among populations or species that are closely placed spatially or taxonomically. Here, theoretically motivated constraints that align with life-history theory offer a new avenue for addressing this problem. We describe a Bayesian hierarchical approach that combines fragmented, multispecies and multi-population data with established life-history theory, in order to objectively determine similarity between populations based on trait correlations (life-history trade-offs) obtained from model fitting.We reconstruct 59 unobserved life-history parameters for 23 populations of tuna that sustain some of the world's most valuable fisheries. Testing by cross-validation across different scenarios indicated that life-histories were accurately reconstructed when information was available for other populations of the same species. The reconstruction of several traits was also accurate for species represented by a single population, although credible intervals increased dramatically. Synthesis and applications. The described Bayesian hierarchical method provides access to life-history traits that are difficult to measure directly and reconstructs missing life-history information useful for assessing populations and species that are directly or indirectly affected by human exploitation of natural resources. The method is particularly useful for examining populations that are spatially or taxonomically similar, and the reconstructed life-history strategies described for the principal market tunas have immediate application to the world-wide management of these fisheries.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cat Horswill
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative MedicineUniversity of GlasgowGlasgowUK
- Department of ZoologyUniversity of CambridgeCambridgeUK
| | - Holly K. Kindsvater
- Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural ResourcesRutgers UniversityNew BrunswickNew Jersey
| | - Maria José Juan‐Jordá
- AZTIPasaiaGipuzkoaSpain
- Earth to Ocean Research GroupDepartment of Biological SciencesSimon Fraser UniversityBurnabyBritish ColumbiaCanada
| | - Nicholas K. Dulvy
- Earth to Ocean Research GroupDepartment of Biological SciencesSimon Fraser UniversityBurnabyBritish ColumbiaCanada
| | - Marc Mangel
- Theoretical Ecology GroupDepartment of BiologyUniversity of BergenBergenNorway
- Institute of Marine SciencesDepartment of Applied MathematicsUniversity of CaliforniaSanta CruzCalifornia
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative MedicineUniversity of GlasgowGlasgowUK
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Sarker SK, Reeve R, Paul NK, Matthiopoulos J. Modelling spatial biodiversity in the world’s largest mangrove ecosystem—The Bangladesh Sundarbans: A baseline for conservation. DIVERS DISTRIB 2019. [DOI: 10.1111/ddi.12887] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Swapan Kumar Sarker
- Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences University of Glasgow Glasgow UK
| | - Richard Reeve
- Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences University of Glasgow Glasgow UK
| | - Nirmal K. Paul
- Management Plan Division Bangladesh Forest Department Khulna Bangladesh
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- Boyd Orr Centre for Population and Ecosystem Health, Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical Veterinary and Life Sciences University of Glasgow Glasgow UK
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Clark TJ, Matthiopoulos J, Bonnet-Lebrun AS, Campioni L, Catry P, Marengo I, Poncet S, Wakefield E. Integrating habitat and partial survey data to estimate the regional population of a globally declining seabird species, the sooty shearwater. Glob Ecol Conserv 2019. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00554] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
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Affiliation(s)
- Louise Riotte-Lambert
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary, and Life Sciences, Graham Kerr Building, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary, and Life Sciences, Graham Kerr Building, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
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41
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Michelot T, Blackwell PG, Matthiopoulos J. Linking resource selection and step selection models for habitat preferences in animals. Ecology 2018; 100:e02452. [DOI: 10.1002/ecy.2452] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2018] [Revised: 05/30/2018] [Accepted: 06/24/2018] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Théo Michelot
- School of Mathematics and Statistics University of Sheffield Hicks Building, Hounsfield Road Sheffield S37RH UK
| | - Paul G. Blackwell
- School of Mathematics and Statistics University of Sheffield Hicks Building, Hounsfield Road Sheffield S37RH UK
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Ng'habi K, Viana M, Matthiopoulos J, Lyimo I, Killeen G, Ferguson HM. Mesocosm experiments reveal the impact of mosquito control measures on malaria vector life history and population dynamics. Sci Rep 2018; 8:13949. [PMID: 30224714 PMCID: PMC6141522 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-31805-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/20/2018] [Accepted: 08/24/2018] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
The impact of control measures on mosquito vector fitness and demography is usually estimated from bioassays or indirect variables in the field. Whilst indicative, neither approach is sufficient to quantify the potentially complex response of mosquito populations to combined interventions. Here, large replicated mesocosms were used to measure the population-level response of the malaria vector Anopheles arabiensis to long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) when used in isolation, or combined with insecticidal eave louvers (EL), or treatment of cattle with the endectocide Ivermectin (IM). State-space models (SSM) were fit to these experimental data, revealing that LLIN introduction reduced adult mosquito survival by 91% but allowed population persistence. ELs provided no additional benefit, but IM reduced mosquito fecundity by 59% and nearly eliminated all populations when combined with LLINs. This highlights the value of IM for integrated vector control, and mesocosm population experiments combined with SSM for identifying optimal combinations for vector population elimination.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kija Ng'habi
- Ifakara Health Institute, Environmental Health and Ecological Sciences, Ifakara, United Republic of Tanzania
- School of Health Sciences, University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
| | - Mafalda Viana
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, United Kingdom
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, United Kingdom
| | - Issa Lyimo
- Ifakara Health Institute, Environmental Health and Ecological Sciences, Ifakara, United Republic of Tanzania
| | - Gerry Killeen
- Ifakara Health Institute, Environmental Health and Ecological Sciences, Ifakara, United Republic of Tanzania
- Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Department of Vector Biology, Liverpool, United Kingdom
| | - Heather M Ferguson
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, United Kingdom.
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Kindsvater HK, Dulvy NK, Horswill C, Juan-Jordá MJ, Mangel M, Matthiopoulos J. Overcoming the Data Crisis in Biodiversity Conservation. Trends Ecol Evol 2018; 33:676-688. [DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2018.06.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 61] [Impact Index Per Article: 10.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2017] [Revised: 05/11/2018] [Accepted: 06/12/2018] [Indexed: 11/27/2022]
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Grecian WJ, Witt MJ, Attrill MJ, Bearhop S, Becker PH, Egevang C, Furness RW, Godley BJ, González-Solís J, Grémillet D, Kopp M, Lescroël A, Matthiopoulos J, Patrick SC, Peter HU, Phillips RA, Stenhouse IJ, Votier SC. Seabird diversity hotspot linked to ocean productivity in the Canary Current Large Marine Ecosystem. Biol Lett 2017; 12:rsbl.2016.0024. [PMID: 27531154 PMCID: PMC5014014 DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2016.0024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2016] [Accepted: 07/22/2016] [Indexed: 11/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Upwelling regions are highly productive habitats targeted by wide-ranging marine predators and industrial fisheries. In this study, we track the migratory movements of eight seabird species from across the Atlantic; quantify overlap with the Canary Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME) and determine the habitat characteristics that drive this association. Our results indicate the CCLME is a biodiversity hotspot for migratory seabirds; all tracked species and more than 70% of individuals used this upwelling region. Relative species richness peaked in areas where sea surface temperature averaged between 15 and 20°C, and correlated positively with chlorophyll a, revealing the optimum conditions driving bottom-up trophic effects for seabirds. Marine vertebrates are not confined by international boundaries, making conservation challenging. However, by linking diversity to ocean productivity, our research reveals the significance of the CCLME for seabird populations from across the Atlantic, making it a priority for conservation action.
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Affiliation(s)
- W James Grecian
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK
| | - Matthew J Witt
- Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall TR10 9EZ, UK
| | - Martin J Attrill
- Marine Institute, Plymouth University, Plymouth, Devon PL4 8AA, UK
| | - Stuart Bearhop
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall TR10 9EZ, UK
| | - Peter H Becker
- Institut für Vogelforschung 'Vogelwarte Helgoland', An der Vogelwarte 21, Wilhelmshaven 26386, Germany
| | - Carsten Egevang
- Greenland Institute of Natural Resources, Kvioq 2, 3900 Nuuk, Greenland
| | - Robert W Furness
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK
| | - Brendan J Godley
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall TR10 9EZ, UK
| | - Jacob González-Solís
- Institut de Recerca de la Biodiversitat (IRBio) and Departament de Biologia Animal, Universitat de Barcelona, Av. Diagonal 643, Barcelona 08028, Spain
| | - David Grémillet
- CEFE UMR 5175, CNRS-Université de Montpellier-Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier-EPHE, 1919 route de Mende, 34293 Cedex 05, Montpellier, France DST/NRF Centre of Excellence, Percy FitzPatrick Institute, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa
| | - Matthias Kopp
- Institute of Ecology, Friedrich-Schiller University, 07743 Jena, Germany
| | - Amélie Lescroël
- CEFE UMR 5175, CNRS-Université de Montpellier-Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier-EPHE, 1919 route de Mende, 34293 Cedex 05, Montpellier, France
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, UK
| | - Samantha C Patrick
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 3GP, UK
| | - Hans-Ulrich Peter
- Institute of Ecology, Friedrich-Schiller University, 07743 Jena, Germany
| | - Richard A Phillips
- British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK
| | - Iain J Stenhouse
- Biodiversity Research Institute, 276 Canco Road, Portland, ME 04103, USA
| | - Stephen C Votier
- Environment and Sustainability Institute, University of Exeter, Penryn, Cornwall TR10 9EZ, UK
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45
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Ngowo HS, Kaindoa EW, Matthiopoulos J, Ferguson HM, Okumu FO. Variations in household microclimate affect outdoor-biting behaviour of malaria vectors. Wellcome Open Res 2017; 2:102. [PMID: 29552642 PMCID: PMC5829465 DOI: 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.12928.1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 10/18/2017] [Indexed: 01/09/2023] Open
Abstract
Background: Mosquito behaviours including the degree to which they bite inside houses or outside is a crucial determinant of human exposure to malaria. Whilst seasonality in mosquito vector abundance is well documented, much less is known about the impact of climate on mosquito behaviour. We investigated how variations in household microclimate affect outdoor-biting by malaria vectors, Anopheles arabiensis and Anopheles funestus. Methods: Mosquitoes were sampled indoors and outdoors weekly using human landing catches at eight households in four villages in south-eastern Tanzania, resulting in 616 trap-nights over 12 months. Daily temperature, relative humidity and rainfall were recorded. Generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) were used to test associations between mosquito abundance and the microclimatic conditions. Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) were used to investigate the influence of microclimatic conditions on the tendency of vectors to bite outdoors (proportion of outdoor biting). Results: An. arabiensis abundance peaked during high rainfall months (February-May), whilst An. funestus density remained stable into the dry season (May-August) . Across the range of observed household temperatures, a rise of 1 ºC marginally increased nightly An. arabiensis abundance (~11%), but more prominently increased An. funestus abundance (~66%). The abundance of An. arabiensis and An. funestus showed strong positive associations with time-lagged rainfall (2-3 and 3-4 weeks before sampling). The degree of outdoor biting in An. arabiensis was significantly associated with the relative temperature difference between indoor and outdoor environments, with exophily increasing as temperature inside houses became relatively warmer. The exophily of An. funestus did not vary with temperature differences. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that malaria vector An. arabiensis shifts the location of its biting from indoors to outdoors in association with relative differences in microclimatic conditions. These environmental impacts could give rise to seasonal variation in mosquito biting behaviour and degree of protection provided by indoor-based vector control strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Halfan S. Ngowo
- Department of Environmental Health and Ecological Sciences, Ifakara Health Institute, Ifakara, Tanzania
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Emmanuel Wilson Kaindoa
- Department of Environmental Health and Ecological Sciences, Ifakara Health Institute, Ifakara, Tanzania
- School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Parktown, South Africa
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Heather M. Ferguson
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Fredros O. Okumu
- Department of Environmental Health and Ecological Sciences, Ifakara Health Institute, Ifakara, Tanzania
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
- School of Public Health, University of the Witwatersrand, Parktown, South Africa
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46
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Ferguson EA, Matthiopoulos J, Insall RH, Husmeier D. Statistical inference of the mechanisms driving collective cell movement. J R Stat Soc Ser C Appl Stat 2016. [DOI: 10.1111/rssc.12203] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/14/2023]
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Horswill C, Ratcliffe N, Green JA, Phillips RA, Trathan PN, Matthiopoulos J. Unravelling the relative roles of top-down and bottom-up forces driving population change in an oceanic predator. Ecology 2016; 97:1919-1928. [PMID: 27859185 PMCID: PMC5008121 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.1452] [Citation(s) in RCA: 29] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/24/2015] [Accepted: 02/22/2016] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Abstract
In the open ocean ecosystem, climate and anthropogenic changes have driven biological change at both ends of the food chain. Understanding how the population dynamics of pelagic predators are simultaneously influenced by nutrient‐driven processes acting from the “bottom‐up” and predator‐driven processes acting from the “top‐down” is therefore considered an urgent task. Using a state‐space demographic model, we evaluated the population trajectory of an oceanic predator, the Macaroni Penguin (Eudyptes chrysolophus), and numerically assessed the relative importance of bottom‐up and top‐down drivers acting through different demographic rates. The population trajectory was considerably more sensitive to changes in top‐down control of survival compared to bottom‐up control of survival or productivity. This study integrates a unique set of demographic and covariate data and highlights the benefits of using a single estimation framework to examine the links between covariates, demographic rates and population dynamics.
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Affiliation(s)
- C Horswill
- British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, United Kingdom.,Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, United Kingdom
| | - N Ratcliffe
- British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, United Kingdom
| | - J A Green
- School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69 3GP, United Kingdom
| | - R A Phillips
- British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, United Kingdom
| | - P N Trathan
- British Antarctic Survey, High Cross, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, United Kingdom
| | - J Matthiopoulos
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, United Kingdom
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Ferguson EA, Matthiopoulos J, Insall RH, Husmeier D. Inference of the drivers of collective movement in two cell types: Dictyostelium and melanoma. J R Soc Interface 2016; 13:20160695. [PMID: 27798280 PMCID: PMC5095226 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2016.0695] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2016] [Accepted: 10/05/2016] [Indexed: 12/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Collective cell movement is a key component of many important biological processes, including wound healing, the immune response and the spread of cancers. To understand and influence these movements, we need to be able to identify and quantify the contribution of their different underlying mechanisms. Here, we define a set of six candidate models-formulated as advection-diffusion-reaction partial differential equations-that incorporate a range of cell movement drivers. We fitted these models to movement assay data from two different cell types: Dictyostelium discoideum and human melanoma. Model comparison using widely applicable information criterion suggested that movement in both of our study systems was driven primarily by a self-generated gradient in the concentration of a depletable chemical in the cells' environment. For melanoma, there was also evidence that overcrowding influenced movement. These applications of model inference to determine the most likely drivers of cell movement indicate that such statistical techniques have potential to support targeted experimental work in increasing our understanding of collective cell movement in a range of systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elaine A Ferguson
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | - Jason Matthiopoulos
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
| | | | - Dirk Husmeier
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science and Engineering, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
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Abstract
Statistical models of habitat preference and species distribution (e.g., Resource Selection Functions and Maximum Entropy approaches) perform a quantitative comparison of the use of space with the availability of all habitats in an animal's environment. However, not all of space is accessible all of the time to all individuals, so availability is in fact determined by limitations in animal perception and mobility. Therefore, measuring habitat availability at biologically relevant scales is essential for understanding preference, but herein lies a trade-off: Models fitted at large spatial scales, will tend to average across the responses of different individuals that happen to be in regions with contrasting habitat compositions. We suggest that such models may fail to capture local extremes (hotspots and coldspots) in animal usage and call this potential problem, homogenization. In contrast, models fitted at smaller scales will vary stochastically depending on the particular habitat composition of their narrow spatial neighborhood, and hence fail to describe responses when predicting for different sampling instances. This is the now well-documented issue of non-transferability of habitat models. We illustrate this tradeoff, using a range of simulated experiments, incorporating variations in environmental gradients, richness and fragmentation. We propose diagnostics for detecting the two issues of homogenization and non-transferability and show that these scale-related symptoms are likely to be more pronounced in highly fragmented or steeply graded landscapes. Further, we address these problems by treating the neighborhood of each cell in the landscape grid as an individual sampling instance (with its own neighborhood), hence allowing coefficients to respond to the local expectations of environmental variables according to a Generalized Functional Response (GFR). Under simulation this approach is consistently better at estimating robust (i.e., transferable) habitat models at smaller scales, and less susceptible to homogenization at larger scales. At the same time, it represents the first application of a GFR to continuous space (rather than multiple, spatially distinct datasets), allowing the predictive advantages of this extension of species distribution models to become available to data from large-scale but single-site field studies.
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Rysava K, McGill RAR, Matthiopoulos J, Hopcraft JGC. Re-constructing nutritional history of Serengeti wildebeest from stable isotopes in tail hair: seasonal starvation patterns in an obligate grazer. Rapid Commun Mass Spectrom 2016; 30:1461-1468. [PMID: 27321833 PMCID: PMC5089620 DOI: 10.1002/rcm.7572] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/16/2015] [Revised: 03/17/2016] [Accepted: 03/18/2016] [Indexed: 06/06/2023]
Abstract
RATIONALE Nutritional bottlenecks often limit the abundance of animal populations and alter individual behaviours; however, establishing animal condition over extended periods of time using non-invasive techniques has been a major limitation in population ecology. We test if the sequential measurement of δ(15) N values in a continually growing tissue, such as hair, can be used as a natural bio-logger akin to tree rings or ice cores to provide insights into nutritional stress. METHODS Nitrogen stable isotope ratios were measured by continuous-flow isotope-ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) from 20 sequential segments along the tail hairs of 15 migratory wildebeest. Generalized Linear Models were used to test for variation between concurrent segments of hair from the same individual, and to compare the δ(15) N values of starved and non-starved animals. Correlations between δ(15) N values in the hair and periods of above-average energy demand during the annual cycle were tested using Generalized Additive Mixed Models. RESULTS The time series of nitrogen isotope ratios in the tail hair are comparable between strands from the same individual. The most likely explanation for the pattern of (15) N enrichment between individuals is determined by life phase, and especially the energetic demands associated with reproduction. The mean δ(15) N value of starved animals was greater than that of non-starved animals, suggesting that higher δ(15) N values correlate with periods of nutritional stress. CONCLUSIONS High δ(15) N values in the tail hair of wildebeest are correlated with periods of negative energy balance, suggesting they may be used as a reliable indicator of the animal's nutritional history. This technique might be applicable to other obligate grazers. Most importantly, the sequential isotopic analysis of hair offers a continuous record of the chronic condition of wildebeest (effectively converting point data into time series) and allows researchers to establish the animal's nutritional diary.
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Affiliation(s)
- K. Rysava
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, Graham Kerr BuildingUniversity of GlasgowGlasgowG12 8QQUK
| | - R. A. R. McGill
- NERC Life Sciences Mass Spectrometry FacilityScottish Universities Environmental Research CentreEast KilbrideGlasgowG75 0QFUK
| | - J. Matthiopoulos
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, Graham Kerr BuildingUniversity of GlasgowGlasgowG12 8QQUK
| | - J. G. C. Hopcraft
- Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health and Comparative Medicine, Graham Kerr BuildingUniversity of GlasgowGlasgowG12 8QQUK
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