Role of Renal Venous Oxygen Pressure for Renal Function Monitoring After Related Living-Donor Kidney Transplantation: Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Monitoring of renal function after kidney transplantation (KT) is performed by measuring serum creatinine (SCr), urine volumes (UV), and glomerular filtration rate (GFR). Other methods based on oxygen metabolism, such as the renal venous oxygen pressure (PrvO2), may be useful. The aim of this study was to explore the correlation between PrvO2 and SCr, UV, and GFR 5 days after KT (SCr5, UV5, and GFR5, respectively).

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study in adults scheduled for living donor KT. A venous blood sample was taken from the renal vein after declamping the renal artery, and blood gas determinations were made. Correlation analyses between PrvO2 and SCr5, UV5, and GFR5 were done by calculating Spearman's correlation coefficient with generalized linear models (GLM). A Spearman's correlation analysis was performed between the percentage decrease in SCr (%ΔSCr) and PrvO2. A GLM was also performed to determine the association of PrvO2 with slow graft function (SGF).

RESULTS

The study included 42 patients, of whom 67% were men. The median age was 31 years (IQR, 27-43.5). PrvO2 was negatively correlated with SCr5 (ρ = -0.53, P = .003), and positively correlated with GFR5 (ρ = 0.49, P = .001) and %ΔSCr (ρ = 0.47, P = .002). A higher PrvO2 was associated with an increase in GFR in univariable (β = 1.24, 95% CI, 0.56-1.93, P = .001) and multivariable (β = 1.24, 95% CI, 0.53-1.94, P = .001) analyses. No association was found between PrvO2 and SGF.

CONCLUSION

PrvO2 could be used to monitor renal function in the first 5 days after related living-donor KT, given its good correlation with SCr and GFR.

Regional moderate hyperthermia for mild-to-moderate COVID-19 (TherMoCoV study): a randomized controlled trial

Background

To prevent COVID-19 progression, low-cost alternatives that are available to all patients are needed. Diverse forms of thermotherapy have been proposed to prevent progression to severe/critical COVID-19.

Objective

The aim of this study is to evaluate the efficacy and safety of local thermotherapy to prevent disease progression in hospitalized adult patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19.

Methods

A multicenter, open-label, parallel-group, randomized, adaptive trial is used to evaluate the efficacy and safety of local thermotherapy to prevent disease progression in hospitalized adult patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19. Eligible hospitalized adult patients with symptoms of COVID-19 with ≤5 days from symptom onset, meeting criteria for mild or moderate COVID-19, were randomly assigned to the intervention consisting of local thermotherapy via an electric heat pad in the thorax (target temperature range 39.5–42°C) continuously for 90 min, twice daily, for 5 days, or standard care. The main outcome was the proportion of patients who progressed to severe-to-critical COVID-19 or death. Patients were randomized in a 1:1 ratio through a centralized computer-generated sequence of minimization with a random component of 20%. Participants and medical staff were not blinded to the intervention.

Results

One-hundred and five participants (thermotherapy n = 54, control n = 51) with a median age of 53 (IQR: 41–64) years were included for analysis after the early cessation of recruitment due to the closure of all temporal COVID-19 units (target sample size = 274). The primary outcome of disease progression occurred in 31.4% (16/51) of patients in the control group vs. 25.9% (14/54) of those receiving thermotherapy (risk difference = 5.5%; 95%CI: −11.8–22.7, p = 0.54). Thermotherapy was well tolerated with a median total duration of thermotherapy of 900 (IQR: 877.5–900) min. Seven (13.7%) patients in the control group and seven (12.9%) in the thermotherapy group had at least one AE (p = 0.9), none of which were causally attributed to the intervention. No statistically significant differences in serum cytokines (IL-1β, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, IL-17, and IFN-γ) were observed between day 5 and baseline among groups.

Conclusion

Local thermotherapy was safe and well-tolerated. A non-statistically significant lower proportion of patients who experienced disease progression was found in the thermotherapy group compared to standard care. Local thermotherapy could be further studied as a strategy to prevent disease progression in ambulatory settings.

Clinical Trial registration: www.clinicaltrials.gov, identifier: NCT04363541.

Weight Gain After 12 Months of Switching to Bictegravir/Emtricitabine/Tenofovir Alafenamide in Virologically Suppressed HIV Patients

Recent studies suggest that the introduction of antiretroviral agents such as integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTI) may lead to weight gain in people living with HIV (PLHIV). In this retrospective observational study, we report the weight changes observed in virologically suppressed HIV patients after 12 months of switching to bictegravir/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide (BIC/F/TAF) due to a national change in public policy in Mexico. Patients on prior regimens based on TDF/FTC or ABC/3TC plus non-nucleoside retrotranscriptase inhibitor, INSTI, or protease inhibitor were included. In the 399 patients analyzed, a significant weight increase was found, as well as an increase in body mass index (BMI), total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), glucose, creatinine, and CD4+ cells after 12 months of switching treatment (all p ≤ .001). Mean weight gain was 1.63 kg [confidence interval (95% CI): 1.14-2.11], whereas the average percentage of weight gained was 2.5% (95% CI: 1.83-3.17). After considering the confounding effect of baseline weight status, the change in weight and BMI did not present significant differences between any of the prior treatment schemes. In conclusion, PLHIV switching to BIC/F/TAF therapy experienced weight gain after the first year of switching treatment. Although this weight gain could be due to the switch in treatment regimen, it cannot be excluded that it was caused by other factors since no comparable control group could be used for comparison.

Effectiveness of a nationwide COVID-19 vaccination program in Mexico against symptomatic COVID-19, hospitalizations, and death: a retrospective analysis of national surveillance data

OBJECTIVES

Vaccination has been effective in ameliorating the impact of COVID-19. Here, we report vaccine effectiveness (VE) of the nationally available COVID-19 vaccines in Mexico.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of a COVID-19 surveillance system to assess the VE of the BNT162b2, messenger RNA (mRNA)-12732, Gam-COVID-Vac, Ad5-nCoV, Ad26.COV2.S, ChAdOx1, and CoronaVac vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19 hospitalization, and death in Mexico. The VE was estimated using time-varying Cox proportional hazard models in vaccinated and unvaccinated adults, adjusted for age, sex, and comorbidities. VE was also estimated for adults with diabetes, aged ≥60 years, and comparing the predominance of SARS-CoV-2 variants B.1.1.519 and B.1.617.2.

RESULTS

We assessed 793,487 vaccinated and 4,792,338 unvaccinated adults between December 24, 2020 and September 27, 2021. The VE against SARS-CoV-2 infection was the highest for fully vaccinated individuals with mRNA-12732 (91.5%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 90.3-92.4) and Ad26.COV2.S (82.2%, 95% CI 81.4-82.9); for COVID-19 hospitalization, BNT162b2 (84.3%, 95% CI 83.6-84.9) and Gam-COVID-Vac (81.4% 95% CI 79.5-83.1), and for mortality, BNT162b2 (89.8%, 95% CI 89.2-90.2) and mRNA-12732 (93.5%, 95% CI 86.0-97.0). The VE decreased for all vaccines in adults aged ≥60 years, people with diabetes, and periods of Delta variant predominance.

CONCLUSION

All the vaccines implemented in Mexico were effective against SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19 hospitalization, and death. Mass vaccination with multiple vaccines is useful to maximize vaccination coverage.

Evaluación de las vías de deterioro de una salsa artesanal para su comercialización

Introducción: Cada vez es mayor el número de consumidores que saben apreciar la calidad de un buen producto artesano y que, por lo tanto, están dispuestos a pagar por ello. La elaboración de productos artesanales busca emplear juiciosamente la mano de obra para elaborar productos de alto valor añadido como la originalidad y cualidades sensoriales.El objetivo de este trabajo es evaluar la vida útily el factor limitante de deterioro en una salsa picante casera para su potencial comercialización. Metodología: Se evaluaron tres posibles vías de deterioro: La descomposición microbiológica (determinada por la cuenta total de bacterias mesofílicas aerobias y coliformes totales), el deterioro de las características sensoriales (por evaluación sensorial mediante escala hedónica) y el deterioro fisicoquímico determinado por la degradación de la grasa después de un almacenamiento por 4 meses a 40°C. Resultados: No se encontraron diferencias en las características sensoriales antes y después del almacenamiento (todas p<0.05).El crecimiento de mesofílicos aerobios y coliformes totales fue <10 UFC/g, de igual manera se determinó el pH para evaluar el riesgo de que pudiese ser debido a crecimiento de C. botulinum, no obstante, además de no observarse la producción de gas el pH fue de 3.6, por lo que se descartó un potencial crecimiento de este microorganismo. Conclusiones: La principal vía de deterioro en la salsa analizada es la degradación de la grasa, reflejado en los cambios de las variables fisicoquímicas acidez, índice de peróxidos, índice de yodo e índice de saponificación. Se considera que el tiempo de vida estimado para la salsa es de 3 semanas sin tratamiento térmico a temperatura ambiente o 4 meses en refrigeración también sin tratamiento térmico. El producto es bien aceptado sensorialmente, por lo que la única limitante es la degradación de la grasa en un período de conservación largo o almacenada de manera no apropiada.

Simplified acute physiology score II and Mannheim peritonitis index are associated with in-hospital mortality in patients with abdominal sepsis admitted to ICU

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to assess the association and interaction of laboratory parameters, Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPSII), Modified Shock Index (MSI), and Mannheim Peritonitis Index (MPI) with in-hospital mortality.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We conducted a single-center case-control study. Adult patients with abdominal sepsis were included from May 2015 to May 2020. Baseline characteristics, laboratory parameters, SAPSII, MSI, and MPI scores at admission were collected. A principal component (PC) analysis was applied to evaluate variable interactions. In-hospital mortality risk was determined through logistic regression models.

RESULTS

One hundred and twenty-seven patients were identified, 60 of which were included for analyses. Non-survivors (48.4%) had a higher frequency of hypertension, lactate and MPI, and lower BE and alactic BE levels. Eight PCs were obtained, PC1 being a linear combination of pH, AG, cAG, alactic BE, bicarbonate, and BE. MPI (OR = 9.87, 95% CI: 3.07-36.61, p = 0.0002), SAPSII (OR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.01-1.14, p = 0.01), and PC1 (OR = 2.13, 95% CI: 1.12-4.76, p = 0.04) were significantly associated with mortality in univariate analysis, while MPI (OR = 10.1, 95% CI: 3.03-40.06, p = 0.0003) and SAPSII (OR = 1.07, CI95%: 1.01-1.14, p = 0.02) remained significant after adjusting for age and sex.

CONCLUSION

MPI and SAPSII were associated with mortality, although the interaction of laboratory parameters was not.

[Stress, anxiety, and depression in health workers during the COVID-19 pandemic]

BACKGROUND

Mental health is an integral part of health. Having some psychiatric condition without treatment predisposes to a poor quality of life. These alterations have been found with an incidence of up to 50% in the general population. There are very few studies in Mexico on these conditions in health workers during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the prevalence of stress, anxiety, and depression during the COVID-19 pandemic in health workers.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A descriptive, cross-sectional observational study was conducted on health workers in a tertiary hospital, through the application of randomized and self-completed surveys, in search of levels of stress, anxiety, and depression during the COVID-19 pandemic.

RESULTS

44.7% of those surveyed showed depression, 83.1% anxiety, and 66.3% stress. The main groups affected were female staff, singles, and medical residents. Those with type 2 diabetes mellitus had higher anxiety and depression.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of stress, anxiety, and depression in health workers is similar to that of the general population in our study. Depression was the alteration most found. The scrutiny of alterations in mental health in health workers is of the utmost importance, with greater emphasis in the context of the aforementioned pandemic.

Aplicaciones clínicas de la ecuación del movimiento del sistema respiratorio para la toma de decisiones en el paciente bajo ventilación mecánica invasiva: artículo de reflexión

Introducción: la ventilación mecánica es una práctica común en las unidades de cuidados intensivos y anestesiología. Tiene implicaciones terapéuticas, pero también es potencialmente nociva para el sistema respiratorio y los órganos distantes, por lo cual es imprescindible monitorizar los parámetros ventilatorios de manera continua. Objetivo: describir la ecuación del movimiento del sistema respiratorio y sus aplicaciones clínicas en el paciente bajo ventilación mecánica. Desarrollo: la ecuación del movimiento del sistema respiratorio integra las fuerzas dinámicas generadas por el ventilador y las propiedades intrínsecas del pulmón y la caja torácica. Expresa la presión en el sistema respiratorio en relación con el volumen, la elastancia, la resistencia, el flujo de aire y las presiones generadas por el ventilador y el paciente. Las presiones elevadas en el sistema respiratorio se asocian a una mayor mortalidad en pacientes con ventilación mecánica, por lo que la identificación de los componentes que condicionan la elevación de las presiones mediante la ecuación del movimiento del sistema respiratorio permite realizar modificaciones a los parámetros programados del ventilador para mantener una ventilación protectora. Conclusión: la toma de decisiones basada en la ecuación del movimiento del sistema respiratorio permite realizar ajustes en los parámetros ventilatorios según las características y enfermedades del paciente bajo ventilación mecánica.

SOFA Score Plus Impedance Ratio Predicts Mortality in Critically Ill Patients Admitted to the Emergency Department: Retrospective Observational Study

Background: The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) is a scoring system used for the evaluation of disease severity and prognosis of critically ill patients. The impedance ratio (Imp-R) is a novel mortality predictor. Aims: This study aimed to evaluate the combination of the SOFA + Imp-R in the prediction of mortality in critically ill patients admitted to the Emergency Department (ED). Methods: A retrospective cohort study was performed in adult patients with acute illness admitted to the ED of a tertiary-care referral center. Baseline SOFA score and bioelectrical impedance analysis to obtain the Imp-R were performed within the first 24 h after admission to the ED. A Cox regression analysis was performed to evaluate the mortality risk of the initial SOFA score plus the Imp-R. Harrell’s C-statistic and decision curve analyses (DCA) were performed. Results: Out of 325 patients, 240 were included for analysis. Overall mortality was 31.3%. Only 21.3% of non-surviving patients died after hospital discharge, and 78.4% died during their hospital stay. Of the latter, 40.6% died in the ED. The SOFA and Imp-R values were higher in non-survivors and were significantly associated with mortality in all models. The combination of the SOFA + Imp-R significantly predicted 30-day mortality, in-hospital mortality, and ED mortality with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.80 (95% CI: 74–0.86), 0.79 (95% CI: 0.74–0.86) and 0.75 (95% CI: 0.66–0.84), respectively. The DCA showed that combining the SOFA + Imp-R improved the prediction of mortality through the lower risk thresholds. Conclusions: The addition of the Imp-R to the baseline SOFA score on admission to the ED improves mortality prediction in severely acutely ill patients admitted to the ED.

Awake prone positioning and oxygen therapy in patients with COVID-19: the APRONOX study

BACKGROUND

The awake prone positioning strategy for patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome is a safe, simple and cost-effective technique used to improve hypoxaemia. We aimed to evaluate intubation and mortality risk in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) who underwent awake prone positioning during hospitalisation.

METHODS

In this retrospective, multicentre observational study conducted between 1 May 2020 and 12 June 2020 in 27 hospitals in Mexico and Ecuador, nonintubated patients with COVID-19 managed with awake prone or awake supine positioning were included to evaluate intubation and mortality risk through logistic regression models; multivariable and centre adjustment, propensity score analyses, and E-values were calculated to limit confounding.

RESULTS

827 nonintubated patients with COVID-19 in the awake prone (n=505) and awake supine (n=322) groups were included for analysis. Fewer patients in the awake prone group required endotracheal intubation (23.6% versus 40.4%) or died (19.8% versus 37.3%). Awake prone positioning was a protective factor for intubation even after multivariable adjustment (OR 0.35, 95% CI 0.24-0.52; p<0.0001, E=2.12), which prevailed after propensity score analysis (OR 0.41, 95% CI 0.27-0.62; p<0.0001, E=1.86) and mortality (adjusted OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.26-0.55; p<0.0001, E=2.03). The main variables associated with intubation among awake prone patients were increasing age, lower baseline peripheral arterial oxygen saturation/inspiratory oxygen fraction ratio (P aO2 /F IO2 ) and management with a nonrebreather mask.

CONCLUSIONS

Awake prone positioning in hospitalised nonintubated patients with COVID-19 is associated with a lower risk of intubation and mortality.

Association of Differences in Dietary Behaviours and Lifestyle with Self-Reported Weight Gain during the COVID-19 Lockdown in a University Community from Chile: A Cross-Sectional Study

Domiciliary confinement of people is one of the main strategies to limit the impact of COVID-19. Lockdowns have led to changes in lifestyle, emotional health, and eating habits. We aimed to evaluate the association of differences in dietary behaviours and lifestyle with self-reported weight gain during the COVID-19 lockdown in Chile. In this cross-sectional analytical study, five previously validated surveys were condensed into a single 86-item online questionnaire. The survey was sent to 1000 potential participants of the university community; it was kept online for 28 days to be answered. Of the 639 respondents, the mean self-reported weight gain during confinement was 1.99 kg (standard deviation [SE]: 0.17) and 0.7 (SE: 0.06) units of body mass index (BMI) (both p < 0.001) and the median difference in body weight during lockdown was 3.3% (interquartile range [IQR]: 0.0–6.7). The differences of intake of most food groups before and during lockdown were associated with greater self-reported weight, BMI and percentage weight gain. Differences in lifestyle (odds ratio [OR] = 14.21, 95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 2.35–85.82) worsening eating habits (OR = 3.43, 95%CI: 2.31–5.09), and more consumption of sweet or filled cookies and cakes during lockdown (OR = 2.11, 95%CI: 1.42–3.13) were associated with self-reported weight gain. In conclusion, different dietary behaviours (mainly consumption of industrialized foods) during lockdown, as well as quality of life deterioration were the main factors associated with self-reported weight gain during lockdown.

Comprehensive evaluation of the impact of sociodemographic inequalities on adverse outcomes and excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico City

BACKGROUND

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico City has been sharp, as several social inequalities at all levels coexist. Here, we conducted an in-depth evaluation of the impact of individual and municipal-level social inequalities on the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico City.

METHODS

We analyzed suspected SARS-CoV-2 cases, from the Mexico City Epidemiological Surveillance System from February 24th, 2020, to March 31 st, 2021. COVID-19 outcomes included rates of hospitalization, severe COVID-19, invasive mechanical ventilation, and mortality. We evaluated socioeconomic occupation as an individual risk, and social lag, which captures municipal-level social vulnerability, and urban population density as proxies of structural risk factors. Impact of reductions in vehicular mobility on COVID-19 rates and the influence of risk factors were also assessed. Finally, we assessed discrepancies in COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 excess mortality using death certificates from the General Civil Registry.

RESULTS

We detected vulnerable groups who belonged to economically unfavored sectors and experienced increased risk of COVID-19 outcomes. Cases living in marginalized municipalities with high population density experienced greater for COVID-19 outcomes. Additionally, policies to reduce vehicular mobility had differential impacts modified by social lag and urban population density. Finally, we report an under-registry of COVID-19 deaths along with an excess mortality closely related to marginalized and densely populated communities in an ambulatory setting. This could be attributable to a negative impact of modified hospital admission criteria during the pandemic.

CONCLUSION

Socioeconomic occupation and municipality-wide factors played a significant role in shaping the course of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico City.

Obesity is a strong risk factor for short-term mortality and adverse outcomes in Mexican patients with COVID-19: a national observational study

Conflicting results have been obtained through meta-analyses for the role of obesity as a risk factor for adverse outcomes in patients with coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), possibly due to the inclusion of predominantly multimorbid patients with severe COVID-19. Here, we aimed to study obesity alone or in combination with other comorbidities as a risk factor for short-term all-cause mortality and other adverse outcomes in Mexican patients evaluated for suspected COVID-19 in ambulatory units and hospitals in Mexico. We performed a retrospective observational analysis in a national cohort of 71 103 patients from all 32 states of Mexico from the National COVID-19 Epidemiological Surveillance Study. Two statistical models were applied through Cox regression to create survival models and logistic regression models to determine risk of death, hospitalisation, invasive mechanical ventilation, pneumonia and admission to an intensive care unit, conferred by obesity and other comorbidities (diabetes mellitus (DM), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, immunosuppression, hypertension, cardiovascular disease and chronic kidney disease). Models were adjusted for other risk factors. From 24 February to 26 April 2020, 71 103 patients were evaluated for suspected COVID-19; 15 529 (21.8%) had a positive test for SARS-CoV-2; 46 960 (66.1%), negative and 8614 (12.1%), pending results. Obesity alone increased adjusted mortality risk in positive patients (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.04-2.98), but not in negative and pending-result patients. Obesity combined with other comorbidities further increased risk of death (DM: HR = 2.79, 95% CI 2.04-3.80; immunosuppression: HR = 5.06, 95% CI 2.26-11.41; hypertension: HR = 2.30, 95% CI 1.77-3.01) and other adverse outcomes. In conclusion, obesity is a strong risk factor for short-term mortality and critical illness in Mexican patients with COVID-19; risk increases when obesity is present with other comorbidities.

Exploring the rationale for thermotherapy in COVID-19

Increased transmissibility of the pandemic severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been noted to occur at lower ambient temperatures. This is seemingly related to a better replication of most respiratory viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, at lower-than-core body temperatures (i.e., 33 °C vs 37 °C). Also, intrinsic characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 make it a heat-susceptible pathogen. Thermotherapy has successfully been used to combat viral infections in plants which could otherwise result in great economic losses; 90% of viruses causing infections in plants are positive-sense single-stranded ribonucleic acid (+ssRNA) viruses, a characteristic shared by SARS-CoV-2. Thus, it is possible to envision the use of heat-based interventions (thermotherapy or mild-temperature hyperthermia) in patients with COVID-19 for which moderate cycles (every 8-12 h) of mild-temperature hyperthermia (1-2 h) have been proposed. However, there are potential safety and mechanistic concerns which could limit the use of thermotherapy only to patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 to prevent disease progression rather than to treat patients who have already progressed to severe-to-critical COVID-19. Here, we review the characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 which make it a heat-susceptible virus, potential host mechanisms which could be enhanced at higher temperatures to aid viral clearance, and how thermotherapy could be investigated as a modality of treatment in patients with COVID-19 while taking into consideration potential risks.

All-cause mortality among patients treated with repurposed antivirals and antibiotics for COVID-19 in Mexico City: A real-world observational study

The aim of our study was to evaluate all-cause mortality risk in patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 in Mexico City treated with repurposed antivirals and antibiotics. This real-world retrospective cohort study contemplated 395,343 patients evaluated for suspected COVID-19 between February 24 and September 14, 2020 in 688 primary-to-tertiary medical units in Mexico City. Patients were included with a positive RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2; those receiving unspecified antivirals, excluded; and groups of antivirals prescribed in < 30 patients, eliminated. Survival and mortality risks were determined for patients receiving antivirals, antibiotics, both, or none. We assessed the effect of early (<2 days) versus late (>2 days) use of antivirals on mortality in a sub-cohort of patients. Multivariable adjustment, propensity score matching, generalized estimating equations, and calculation of E-values were performed to limit confounding. 136,855 patients were analyzed; mean age 44.2 (SD:16.8) years; 51.3 % were men. 16.6 % received antivirals (3 %), antibiotics (10 %), or both (3.6 %). Antivirals studied were Oseltamivir (n=8414), Amantadine (n=319), Lopinavir-Ritonavir (n=100), Rimantadine (n=61), Zanamivir (n=39), and Acyclovir (n=36). Survival with antivirals (73.7 %, p<0.0001) and antibiotics (85.8 %, p<0.0001) was lower than no antiviral/antibiotic (93.6 %). After multivariable adjustment, increased risk of death occurred with antivirals (HR=1.72, 95 % CI: 1.61-1.84) in ambulatory (HR=4.7, 95 % CI: 3.94-5.62) and non-critical (HR=2.03, 95 % CI: 1.86-2.21) patients. Oseltamivir increased mortality risk in the general population (HR=1.72, 95 % CI: 1.61-1.84), ambulatory (HR=4.79, 95 % CI: 4.01-5.75), non-critical (HR=2.05, 95 % CI: 1.88-2.23), and pregnancy (HR=8.35, 95 % CI: 1.77-39.30); as well as hospitalized (HR=1.13, 95 % CI: 1.01-1.26) and critical patients (HR=1.22, 95 % CI: 1.05-1.43) after propensity score-matching. Early versus late oseltamivir did not modify the risk. Antibiotics were a risk factor in general population (HR=1.13, 95 % CI: 1.08-1.19) and pediatrics (HR=4.22, 95 % CI: 2.01-8.86), but a protective factor in hospitalized (HR=0.81, 95 % CI: 0.77-0.86) and critical patients (HR=0.67, 95 % CI: 0.63-0.72). No significant benefit for repurposed antivirals was observed; oseltamivir was associated with increased mortality. Antibiotics increased mortality risk in the general population but may increase survival in hospitalized and critical patients.

Mechanisms of infection by SARS-CoV-2, inflammation and potential links with the microbiome

The pandemic SARS coronavirus 2 utilizes efficient mechanisms to establish infection and evade the immune system. Established infection leads to severe inflammation in susceptible patients, the main hallmark of progression to severe coronavirus disease (COVID-19). Knowledge of the mechanisms of disease has expanded rapidly. As inflammation emerges as the central pathophysiological feature in COVID-19, elucidating how the immune system, lungs and gut communicate and interact with microbial components of the ecological niches that conform the human microbiome will shed light on how inflammation and disease progression are promoted. Studying the microbiome in COVID-19 could allow scientists to identify novel approaches to prevent severe inflammation by targeting components of the human microbiome. Innovation in the aforementioned is needed to combat this pandemic.

Development and validation of the patient history COVID-19 (PH-Covid19) scoring system: a multivariable prediction model of death in Mexican patients with COVID-19

Most of the existing prediction models for COVID-19 lack validation, are inadequately reported or are at high risk of bias, a reason which has led to discourage their use. Few existing models have the potential to be extensively used by healthcare providers in low-resource settings since many require laboratory and imaging predictors. Therefore, we sought to develop and validate a multivariable prediction model of death in Mexican patients with COVID-19, by using demographic and patient history predictors. We conducted a national retrospective cohort study in two different sets of patients from the Mexican COVID-19 Epidemiologic Surveillance Study. Patients with a positive reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction for SARS-CoV-2 and complete unduplicated data were eligible. In total, 83 779 patients were included to develop the scoring system through a multivariable Cox regression model; 100 000, to validate the model. Eight predictors (age, sex, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunosuppression, hypertension, obesity and chronic kidney disease) were included in the scoring system called PH-Covid19 (range of values: -2 to 25 points). The predictive model has a discrimination of death of 0.8 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.796-0.804). The PH-Covid19 scoring system was developed and validated in Mexican patients to aid clinicians to stratify patients with COVID-19 at risk of fatal outcomes, allowing for better and efficient use of resources.