Permutation-based multiple testing corrections for P $$ P $$ -values and confidence intervals for cluster randomized trials

In this article, we derive and compare methods to derive P-values and sets of confidence intervals with strong control of the family-wise error rates and coverage for estimates of treatment effects in cluster randomized trials with multiple outcomes. There are few methods for P-value corrections and deriving confidence intervals, limiting their application in this setting. We discuss the methods of Bonferroni, Holm, and Romano and Wolf and adapt them to cluster randomized trial inference using permutation-based methods with different test statistics. We develop a novel search procedure for confidence set limits using permutation tests to produce a set of confidence intervals under each method of correction. We conduct a simulation-based study to compare family-wise error rates, coverage of confidence sets, and the efficiency of each procedure in comparison to no correction using both model-based standard errors and permutation tests. We show that the Romano-Wolf type procedure has nominal error rates and coverage under non-independent correlation structures and is more efficient than the other methods in a simulation-based study. We also compare results from the analysis of a real-world trial.

Description of the design of a mixed-methods study to assess the burden and determinants of malaria transmission for tailoring of interventions (microstratification) in Ibadan and Kano metropolis

BACKGROUND

Rapid urbanization in Nigerian cities may lead to localized variations in malaria transmission, particularly with a higher burden in informal settlements and slums. However, there is a lack of available data to quantify the variations in transmission risk at the city level and inform the selection of appropriate interventions. To bridge this gap, field studies will be undertaken in Ibadan and Kano, two major Nigerian cities. These studies will involve a blend of cross-sectional and longitudinal epidemiological research, coupled with longitudinal entomological studies. The primary objective is to gain insights into the variation of malaria risk at the smallest administrative units, known as wards, within these cities.

METHODS/RESULTS

The findings will contribute to the tailoring of interventions as part of Nigeria's National Malaria Strategic Plan. The study design incorporates a combination of model-based clustering and on-site visits for ground-truthing, enabling the identification of environmental archetypes at the ward-level to establish the study's framework. Furthermore, community participatory approaches will be utilized to refine study instruments and sampling strategies. The data gathered through cross-sectional and longitudinal studies will contribute to an enhanced understanding of malaria risk in the metropolises of Kano and Ibadan.

CONCLUSIONS

This paper outlines pioneering field study methods aimed at collecting data to inform the tailoring of malaria interventions in urban settings. The integration of multiple study types will provide valuable data for mapping malaria risk and comprehending the underlying determinants. Given the importance of location-specific data for microstratification, this study presents a systematic process and provides adaptable tools that can be employed in cities with limited data availability.

Abdominal obesity, serum estradiol and cardiovascular risk among Nigerian postmenopausal women: a cross-sectional study

Background

Rates of cardiovascular (CV) disease mortality is usually higher in men but this equalizes with that of women following menopause.

Objectives

This was to determine the contribution of abdominal obesity and estradiol to cardiovascular risk in postmenopausal women (PMW) as well as estimate their CV risk profile.

Methods

271 consenting PMW were recruited consecutively into this cross-sectional hospital-based study. Data relating to their socio-demography, blood pressure and anthropometry was obtained and laboratory analysis of lipid profile and serum estradiol was done. Cardiovascular risk of participants was estimated using standardized calculators.

Results

Mean age of participants was 57.8±5.5 years. Significant correlation existed between each of triglyceride (Positive), High Density Lipoprotein (negative) and Waist-Hip-Ratio (WHR) (p=0.001 and 0.000 respectively). Hypertension and dyslipidaemia were significantly associated with WHR (p=0.01 and 0.031 respectively). Significant negative correlation existed between CV risk profile and serum estradiol (rs = -0.140, p = 0.028). Ten-unit increase in WHR was associated with two-fold risk of hypertension (OR> 1.73, C.I.= 1.13-2.66). A unit change in age was associated with 0.61 increase in TC.

Conclusion

Abdominal obesity and serum estradiol significantly influence cardio-metabolic risk. Newer risk calculator which incorporates factors peculiar to women such as serum E2 is hereby recommended.

Systematic review of multilevel models involving contextual characteristics in African demographic research

Multilevel modelling has become a popular analytical approach for many demographic and health outcomes. The objective of this paper is to systematically review studies which used multilevel modelling in demographic research in Africa in terms of the outcomes analysed, common findings, theoretical rationale, questions addressed, methodological approaches, study design and data sources. The review was conducted by searching electronic databases such as Ebsco hosts, Science Direct, ProQuest, Scopus, PubMed and Google scholar for articles published between 2010 and 2021. Search terms such as neighbourhood, social, ecological and environmental context were used. The systematic review consisted of 35 articles, with 34 being peer-reviewed journal articles and 1 technical report. Based on the systematic review community-level factors are important in explaining various demographic outcomes. The community-level factors such as distance to the health facility, geographical region, place of residence, high illiteracy rates and the availability of maternal antenatal care services influenced several child health outcomes. The interpretation of results in the reviewed studies mainly focused on fixed effects rather than random effects. It is observed that data on cultural practices, values and beliefs, are needed to enrich the robust evidence generated from multilevel models.

Heart failure in Nigeria: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Heart failure is now a significant contributor to the burden of non-communicable diseases in developing countries like Nigeria which is experiencing epidemiologic and demographic transition. The epidemiology of heart failure in this country is poorly characterized. The aim of the review is to determine the prevalence of heart failure, the associated risk factors, the aetiology, management, and outcomes of the condition in the country.

Methods

Relevant databases such as PubMed /Medline, EMBASE, Web of Science, Google Scholar, African Index Medicus, and African journal online would be searched for articles published in English from January 2000 to December 2021. The analysis will include observational studies conducted among Nigerian adults aged 12 years and above. Article selection shall be conducted by pairs of independent reviewers. Data extraction shall be done by 2 independent reviewers.

Results

The primary outcome would be the pooled prevalence of heart failure while the secondary outcomes would be to identify the risk factors and management of heart failure in Nigeria.

Conclusion

This will be the first systematic review and meta-analysis of heart failure epidemiology in Nigeria which will hopefully identify gaps for future research and guidance for policy interventions.

Patient-level and system-level determinants of stroke fatality across 16 large hospitals in Ghana and Nigeria: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Every minute, six indigenous Africans develop new strokes. Patient-level and system-level contributors to early stroke fatality in this region are yet to be delineated. We aimed to identify and quantify the contributions of patient-level and system-level determinants of inpatient stroke fatality across 16 hospitals in Ghana and Nigeria.

METHODS

The Stroke Investigative Research and Educational Network (SIREN) is a multicentre study involving 16 sites in Ghana and Nigeria. Cases include adults (aged ≥18 years) with clinical and radiological evidence of an acute stroke. Data on stroke services and resources available at each study site were collected and analysed as system-level factors. A host of demographic and clinical variables of cases were analysed as patient-level factors. A mixed effect log-binomial model including both patient-level and system-level covariates was fitted. Results are presented as adjusted risk ratios (aRRs) with respective 95% CIs.

FINDINGS

Overall, 814 (21·8%) of the 3739 patients admitted with stroke died as inpatients: 476 (18·1%) of 2635 with ischaemic stroke and 338 (30·6%) of 1104 with intracerebral haemorrhage. The variability in the odds of stroke fatality that could be attributed to the system-level factors across study sites assessed using model intracluster correlation coefficient was substantial at 7·3% (above a 5% threshold). Stroke units were available at only five of 16 centres. The aRRs of six patient-level factors associated with stroke fatality were: low vegetable consumption, 1·19 (95% CI 1·07-1·33); systolic blood pressure, 1·02 (1·01-1·04) for each 10 mm Hg rise; stroke lesion volume more than 30 cm3, 1·48 (1·22-1·79); National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, 1·20 (1·13-1·26) for each 5-unit rise; elevated intracranial pressure, 1·75 (1·31-2·33); and aspiration pneumonia, 1·79 (1·16-2·77).

INTERPRETATION

Studies are needed to assess the efficacy of interventions targeting patient-level factors such as aspiration pneumonia in reducing acute stroke fatality in this region. Policy directives to improve stroke unit access are warranted.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health.

TRANSLATIONS

For the Twi, Yoruba and Hausa translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Capacity-Building for Stroke Genomic Research Data Collection: The African Neurobiobank Ethical, Legal, and Social Implications Project Experience

Background: The fields of stroke genomics, biobanking, and precision medicine are rapidly expanding in sub-Saharan Africa. However, the ethical, legal, and social implications (ELSI) of emerging neurobiobanking and genomic data resources are unclear in an emerging African scientific landscape with unique cultural, linguistic, and belief systems. Objective: This article documents capacity-building experiences of researchers during the development, pretesting, and validation of data collection instruments of the African Neurobiobank for Precision Stroke Medicine-(ELSI) Project. Methods: The African Neurobiobank for Precision Stroke Medicine-ELSI project is a transnational, multicenter project implemented across seven sites in Ghana and Nigeria. Guided by the Community-Based Participatory Research framework, we conducted three workshops with key stakeholders to review the study protocol, ensure uniformity in implementation; pretest, harmonize, and integrate context-specific feedback to ensure validity and adaptability of data collection instruments. Workshop impact was assessed using an open-ended questionnaire, which included questions on experience with participation in any of the workshops, building capacity in Genetic and Genomic Research (GGR), level of preparedness toward GGR, the genomic mini-dictionary developed by the team, and its impact in enhancing understanding in GGR. Data were analyzed qualitatively using a thematic framework approach. Results: Findings revealed the usefulness of the workshop in improving participants' knowledge and capacity toward GGR implementation. It further identified local, context-specific concerns regarding quality data collection, the need to develop culturally acceptable, genomic/biobanking data collection tools, and a mini-dictionary. Participants-reported perceptions were that the mini-dictionary enhanced understanding, participation, and data collection in GGR. Overall, participants reported increased preparedness and interest in participating in GGR. Conclusion: Capacity-building is a necessary step toward ELSI-related genomic research implementation in African countries where scholarship of ELSI of genomics research is emerging. Our findings may be useful to the design and implementation of ELSI-GGR projects in other African countries.

Proximate determinants and decomposition of changes in fertility levels across Nigeria regions: Evidence from Nigeria Demographic Health Survey, 2003-2018

There is disparity in fertility level across the six geopolitical zones in Nigeria. Deeper uunderstanding about the drivers of fertility trends are necessary to prioritize zonal specific strategies for fertility reduction in Nigeria. Thus, this study examined the proximate determinants (PDs) of fertility and decomposed the change in its level across the six geo-political zones in Nigeria. Data from Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys of 2003 and 2018 were analyzed. Fertility data were based on the report of full birth history from women of reproductive age. The Revised Bongaarts framework was used to estimate PDs and fertility levels. The contribution of each PDs to the observed changes in fertility levels was quantified using Das Gupta's five- factor decomposition method. The Total fertility rate (TFR) in 2003 and 2008 across the zones are South-South (5.04 vs 4.36), South-West (4.88 vs 4.26), North West (7.25 vs 6.85), North East (6.87 vs 6.54), North Central (5.72 vs 5.48), South East (5.06 vs 4.86), Nigeria (6.00 vs 5.59). Across the zones, there was a change in the fertility inhibiting effect of Contraception (Cc) between 2003 and 2018. The fertility inhibiting effect of Postpartum Infecundability (Ci) and Abortion was the highest and smallest respectively across the zones. Delayed sexual exposure (Cm) and contraceptive use (Cc) contributed the most to the change across the regions. The percentage contribution of Cm in South-South, South West, and South East was 87.04%, 52.89%, and 172.85% respectively. Furthermore, most of the fertility change observed in North Central was attributable to Cc. Abortion index was not an important inhibiting factor of fertility in Nigeria. Delayed sexual exposure and contraceptive use accounted for the largest change observed in fertility levels across the six geo-political zones in Nigeria between 2003 and 2018. Strategies that promote delayed sexual exposure, contraceptive use and breast feeding practices will enhance fertility transition in Nigeria.

Shifts in age pattern, timing of childbearing and trend in fertility level across six regions of Nigeria: Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys from 2003-2018

BACKGROUND

Nigeria's population is projected to increase from 200 million in 2019 to 450 million in 2050 if the fertility level remains at the current level. Thus, we examined the shifts in the age pattern of fertility, timing of childbearing and trend in fertility levels from 2003 and 2018 across six regions of Nigeria.

METHOD

This study utilised the 2003, 2008, 2013, and 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey datasets. Each survey was a cross-sectional population-based design, and a two-stage cluster sampling technique was used to select women aged 15-49 years. The changes in the timing of childbearing were examined by calculating the corresponding mean ages at the birth of different birth orders for each birth order separately to adjust the Quantum effect for births. The Gompertz Relational Model was used to examine the age pattern of fertility and refined fertility level.

RESULT

In Nigeria, it was observed that there was a minimal decline in mean children ever born (CEB) between 2003 and 2018 across all maternal age groups except aged 20-24 years. The pattern of mean CEB by the age of mothers was the same across the Nigeria regions except in North West. Nigeria's mean number of CEB to women aged 40-49 in 2003, 2008, 2013 and 2018 surveys was 6.7, 6.6, 6.3 and 6.1, respectively. The mean age (years) at first birth marginally increased from 21.3 in 2003 to 22.5 in 2018. In 2003, the mean age at first birth was highest in South East (24.3) and lowest in North East (19.4); while South West had the highest (24.4) and both North East and North West had the lowest (20.2) in 2018. Similar age patterns of fertility existed between 2003 and 2018 across the regions. Nigeria's estimated total fertility level for 2003, 2008, 2013 and 2018 was 6.1, 6.1, 5.9 and 5.7, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The findings showed a reducing but slow fertility declines in Nigeria. The decline varied substantially across the regions. For a downward change in the level of fertility, policies that will constrict the spread of fertility distribution across the region in Nigeria must urgently be put in place.

Individual and ecological analyses of antenatal care: Prospects for delivery assistance and use of modern family planning in Nigeria

Despite the availability of healthcare centres for the provision of antenatal care (ANC) services in Nigeria, the services are still underutilized by pregnant women. ANC services not only reduce maternal mortality and birth defects, but also have a strong link to many causes of maternal deaths. This study explored the individual and ecological relationships between antenatal care, skilled birth assistance during delivery, and family planning use across states in Nigeria. This study was a secondary analysis of data from the 2018 National Nutrition and Health Survey (NNHS) carried out among 24,985 women aged 15-49 years in the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in Nigeria. Analysis was carried out at the level of individual women and at the ecological level. Only 68.3% visited a health professional (doctors, nurses, midwives, community health extension workers, and community health officers) for ANC in the most recent pregnancy before the survey. At delivery, 44.9% were assisted by delivery attendants with about half (50.1%) assisted by non-professional (traditional birth attendants, relatives and friends) during delivery. There was a significant variation in use of modern family planning (FP) across types of ANC provider. There was a strong positive correlation between ANC utilisation and skilled birth attendance (SBA) (r=0.706, p <0.001), and between SBA and FP (r=0.730, p <0.001). These results have implications for the design of appropriate interventions for strengthening the role of healthcare providers to enhance ANC patronage, utilization of safe delivery services and sustained use of reproductive health services.

Missed opportunities for HIV counselling and testing service delivery among pregnant women in Nigeria: Evidence from the 2018 National nutrition and health survey

According to UNAIDS, the 90-90-90 strategy calls for 90% of HIV-infected individuals to be diagnosed by 2020, 90% of whom will be on anti-retroviral therapy (ART) and 90% of whom will achieve sustained virologic suppression. HIV counselling and testing (HCT) is an important entry point for effective prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV. However, evidence abounds that HCT is often missed by pregnant women during antenatal care in Nigeria. We used secondary data from the 2018 Nigerian National Nutrition and Health Survey (NNHS) to determine the pattern of missed opportunities within the HCT algorithm and the factors associated with the missed opportunities. Of the 8,329 eligible women, 2,327 (27.9%) missed HCT because of lack of antenatal care; 1,493 (24.9%) missed HIV pre-test counselling; 180 (4.0%) missed HIV testing after participating in pre-test counselling, while 793 (18.2%) missed collection of HIV result and post-test counselling. Generally, most of the women that missed HCT were from the North West (43.3%) and had their antenatal care with traditional birth attendants. The odds of missing ANC were higher in women in the Northern and Southern regions. Concerning pre-test HIV counselling, the odds of missing it were higher among women in the Northwest and Southeast while the odds of missing post-test counselling of HIV test were higher among women in the Northeast and Southeast relative to other regions. Using TBA as a care provider was associated with higher odds of women missing pre-test and post-test counselling of HIV during ANC compared to those that used doctors or midwives or CHEWs. Missed opportunities are common in different stages of HIV counselling and testing pathway in Nigeria, particularly in the Northern regions. Future studies would need to identify the specific reasons for these missed opportunities, enabling the targeting of more specific policy reform and interventions.

Prevalence and predictive factors for early initiation of breastfeeding in Nigeria: Evidence from the Nigerian demographic and health survey (2003-2018)

Early initiation of breastfeeding (EIBF) is an essential first step in exclusive breastfeeding that is expected to commence within an hour after childbirth. This study examined the prevalence and the factors associated with EIBF among nursing mothers in Nigeria based on an analysis of the 2003, 2008, 2013, and 2018 Nigerian Demographic Health Survey (NDHS) data. The prevalence of early breastfeeding initiation by women's demographic, socio-economic and reproductive characteristics were computed for each of the survey rounds. The differences in the prevalence estimates for early breastfeeding initiation between the last two survey periods were calculated. A crude and adjusted model to examine association between explanatory variables and early breastfeeding initiation were fitted using Poisson regression model. The mean age of respondents was 29 years (SD=7.3). The prevalence of EIBF increased from 31.5% in 2003 (95% CI 28.4-34.5) to 43.8% in 2018 (95% CI 42.6-45.0), with a decline to 35.3% in 2013 (95% CI 34.0-36.7). The identified risk factors associated with EIBF were being 35-39 years, having at least a primary education, lower wealth quintiles, multiparity, and delivery in a public hospital. EIBF was lower among women that had skilled occupation, access to media, decided to delay pregnancy, history of previous caesarean section, small size baby at birth, and women who received antenatal care. The results indicate that the proportion of women with EIBF in Nigeria is low. Addressing the barriers identified in this paper will help promote EIBF practices in the country.

Assessment of diagnostic accuracy and adherence to maternal and child health guidelines as a measure of clinical competence of frontline healthcare workers in Nigeria

Clinical competence of primary healthcare (PHC) workers is important in the delivery of maternal and child health care and services. In this cross-sectional study, we investigated the diagnostic accuracy and adherence to clinical guidelines for the management of some clinical conditions such as malaria, diarrhea, pneumonia, neonatal asphyxia and postpartum hemorrhage, as a proxy to measure the clinical competence of frontline health workers in PHCs in selected states in Nigeria. Ninety PHC facilities were randomly selected in each State and the FCT. Of the 3330 health workers, only 36.0% were able to correctly diagnose the five selected medical conditions. There was a significant difference in the diagnostic accuracy of the health workers with the doctors having highest diagnostic accuracy (65.5%) compared to other health workers (p <0.001). Adherence to the management guidelines was generally poor across all cadres of health workers and this pattern appear similar across the geopolitical regions in the country. The highest adherence to guidelines was observed among medical doctors (38.2%). The diagnostic accuracy and adherence to national guidelines for managing patients was poor among health workers, particularly, among other cadres except doctors. PHC workers in Nigeria need continuous training to enhance their clinical competence to improve quality of maternal and child health care.

Uptake of modern and traditional contraceptive methods in Nigeria: Lessons from a nationwide initiative on programming for results (2015-2018)

In general, family planning uptake promotes healthy living among couples and their children, in addition to aiding national development. This study was a secondary analysis of data collected from two nationally representative data - 2015 and 2018 National Nutrition and Health Surveys (NNHS) - aimed at measuring the uptake of modern and traditional contraceptive methods among women of reproductive age in Nigeria. The data were analysed by presenting differentials in prevalence of modern and traditional contraceptives between 2015 and 2018. The results showed that during the periods modern contraceptive uptake in Nigeria ranged between 10% and 17%. By contrast, the prevalence of the traditional methods was 8.3% and 10.0%. Within four years (2015-2018), the average national modern contraceptive uptake among women increased by 7%, while the traditional contraceptive uptake reduced by 2%. The uptake of both modern and traditional contraceptive methods varied by ages group of women, geo-political regions, and State of residence. We conclude that the uptake of modern contraception is below expectation in all regions in Nigeria. The uptake is worse in the northern regions as compared to the southern regions. Government needs to invest more to increase access to and utilization of modern contraceptive methods.

Prevalence and patterns of anthropometric failure among under-five children in Nigeria: Evidence from the National nutrition and health survey, 2018

Globally, malnutrition among under-five children remains a public health concern. There is increasing concern at research and policy levels about anthropometric failure and the double burden of child malnutrition across different groups of children. The objective of this study was to describe the magnitude and distribution of various forms of anthropometric failure (AF) among children under age five in Nigeria. We used the 2018 National Nutrition and Health Survey data collected among 19,471 under-five children in Nigeria. The most prevalent AF was stunting only (17.7%) followed by stunting and underweight (13.9%). Wasting, stunting and underweight was found among 3.5% of the sample. Wasting, stunting and underweight was most common in age 6-11 months (7.0%) and 12-23 months (6.9%). Overall, about 1 out of 5 under-five children has multiple anthropometric failure. The peak age group for multiple AFs was between six months and 35 months. Multiple AF was less likely among females compared to males (RR=0.74, CI: 0.69, 0.80). The risk of multiple AF was higher in both North East (RR=2.15, CI: 1.78, 2.59) and North West (RR=2.98, CI: 2.51, 3.55) relative to the North Central. In contrast, the risk was lesser in the South East (RR=0.75, CI: 0.59, 0.95) and other southern regions. The study showed that multiple anthropometric failure is a common problem among children in Nigeria. Programmes that will support prevention and early identification of different types of malnutrition among under-five children across States in Nigeria are recommended.

Perceptions of COVID-19 transmission risk and testing readiness in rural Southwest Nigeria

Although community screening and testing have been recommended by the World Health Organization, the extent of readiness and the associated factors among rural populations remain unknown. We investigated the factors associated with perception of the COVID-19 transmission risk and readiness for testing in rural areas of Southwest Nigeria.

Using a multistage cluster sampling technique, cross-sectional data was collected from 922 adults aged 18 years and above who were resident in rural communities selected across three States in the Southwest region between June and August 2020. Descriptive statistics and binary logit models with robust standard errors were utilized for analysis.

Mean age of respondents was 37.0 (SD = 15.8) years; 58.6% female; 46.5% had secondary education; and most were traders (33.2%) and artisans (29.9%). Only 149 respondents (16.2%) had a accurate perception of COVID-19 transmission risk. Adjusted logit models showed that independent factors associated with accurate perception of COVID-19 transmission risk include: age 18&19 years (OR = 0.50, CI: 0.34–0.73); exposure to electronic media (OR = 1.84, CI: 1.07–3.18); and being an in-migrant (OR = 3.38, CI: 2.44–4.68). Less than one-third (28.8%) were willing to test for COVID-19. Severe fear of COVID-19 (OR = 3.99, CI: 1.36–11.74) was associated with willingness to undergo COVID-19 testing. Socio-demographic predictors of testing readiness included: male sex (OR = 1.51, CI: 1.36–1.68); traditional religion (OR = 2.81, CI: 1.05–7.53); and exposure to electronic media (OR = 1.31, CI: 1.06–1.62). Awareness campaigns need to be scaled up to improve perception and preparedness to test for COVID-19.

Social consequences of COVID-19 on fertility preference consistency and contraceptive use among Nigerian women: insights from population-based data

BACKGROUND

Emerging evidence from high income countries showed that the COVID-19 pandemic has had negative effects on population and reproductive health behaviour. This study provides a sub-Saharan Africa perspective by documenting the social consequences of COVID-19 and its relationship to fertility preference stability and modern contraceptive use in Nigeria.

METHOD

We analysed panel data collected by Performance Monitoring for Action in Nigeria. Baseline and Follow-up surveys were conducted before the COVID-19 outbreak (November 2019-February 2020) and during the lockdown respectively (May-July 2020). Analysis was restricted to married non-pregnant women during follow-up (n = 774). Descriptive statistics and generalized linear models were employed to explore the relationship between selected social consequences of COVID-19 and fertility preferences stability (between baseline and follow-up) as well as modern contraceptives use.

RESULTS

Reported social consequences of the pandemic lockdown include total loss of household income (31.3%), food insecurity (16.5%), and greater economic reliance on partner (43.0%). Sixty-eight women (8.8%) changed their minds about pregnancy and this was associated with age groups, higher wealth quintile (AOR = 0.38, CI: 0.15-0.97) and household food insecurity (AOR = 2.72, CI: 1.23-5.99). Fertility preference was inconsistent among 26.1%. Women aged 30-34 years (AOR = 4.46, CI:1.29-15.39) were more likely of inconsistent fertility preference compared to 15-24 years. The likelihood was also higher among women with three children compared to those with only one child (AOR = 3.88, CI: 1.36-11.08). During follow-up survey, 59.4% reported they would feel unhappy if pregnant. This was more common among women with tertiary education (AOR = 2.99, CI: 1.41-6.33). The odds increased with parity. The prevalence of modern contraceptive use was 32.8%. Women aged 45-49 years (AOR = 0.24, CI: 0.10-0.56) were less likely to use modern contraceptives than those aged 15-24 years. In contrast, the odds of contraceptive use were significantly higher among those with three (AOR = 1.82, CI: 1.03-3.20), four (AOR = 2.45, CI: 1.36-4.39) and at least five (AOR = 2.89, CI: 1.25-6.74) children. Unhappy disposition towards pregnancy (AOR = 2.48, CI: 1.724-3.58) was also a significant predictor of modern contraceptive use.

CONCLUSION

Some social consequences of COVID-19 affected pregnancy intention and stability of fertility preference but showed no independent association with modern contraceptive use.

Drivers of long-lasting insecticide-treated net utilisation and parasitaemia among under-five children in 13 States with high malaria burden in Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Although Nigeria has made some progress in malaria control, there are variations across States. We investigated the factors associated with utilisation of long-lasting insecticide-treated net (LLIN) and parasitaemia among under-five children in 13 States with high malaria burden.

METHOD

Data from the 2015 Nigeria Malaria Indicator Survey and 2018 Demographic and Health Survey were obtained and analysed. The 2015 and 2018 data were compared to identify States with increase or reduction in parasitaemia. Analysis was done for all the 13 study States; four States with increased parasitaemia and nine States with reduction. Random-effects logit models were fitted to identify independent predictors of LLIN utilisation and parasitaemia.

RESULTS

LLIN was used by 53.4% of 2844 children, while parasitaemia prevalence was 26.4% in 2018. Grandchildren (AOR = 5.35, CI: 1.09-26.19) were more likely to use LLIN while other relatives (AOR = 0.33, CI: 0.11-0.94) were less likely compared to children of household-heads. LLIN use was more common in children whose mother opined that only weak children could die from malaria (AOR = 1.83, CI: 1.10-3.10). Children whose mothers obtained net from antenatal or immunisation clinics (AOR = 5.30, CI: 2.32-12.14) and campaigns (AOR = 1.77, CI: 1.03-3.04) were also more likely to use LLIN. In contrast, LLIN utilisation was less likely among children in female-headed households (AOR = 0.51, CI: 0.27-0.99) and those in poor-quality houses (AOR = 0.25, CI: 0.09-0.72). Children aged 24-59 months compared to 0-11 months (AOR = 1.78, CI: 1.28-2.48), those in whom fever was reported (AOR = 1.31, CI: 1.06-1.63) and children of uneducated women (AOR = 1.89, CI: 1.32-2.70) were more likely to have parasitaemia. The likelihood of parasitaemia was higher among children from poor households compared to the rich (AOR = 2.06, CI: 1.24-3.42). The odds of parasitaemia were 98% higher among rural children (AOR = 1.98, CI: 1.37-2.87).

CONCLUSION

The key drivers of LLIN utilisation were source of net and socioeconomic characteristics. The latter was also a key factor associated with parasitaemia. These should be targeted as part of integrated malaria elimination efforts.

Health service utilisation during the COVID-19 pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa in 2020: a multicountry empirical assessment with a focus on maternal, newborn and child health services

INTRODUCTION

There are concerns about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the continuation of essential health services in sub-Saharan Africa. Through the Countdown to 2030 for Women's, Children's and Adolescents' Health country collaborations, analysts from country and global public health institutions and ministries of health assessed the trends in selected services for maternal, newborn and child health, general service utilisation.

METHODS

Monthly routine health facility data by district for the period 2017-2020 were compiled by 12 country teams and adjusted after extensive quality assessments. Mixed effects linear regressions were used to estimate the size of any change in service utilisation for each month from March to December 2020 and for the whole COVID-19 period in 2020.

RESULTS

The completeness of reporting of health facilities was high in 2020 (median of 12 countries, 96% national and 91% of districts ≥90%), higher than in the preceding years and extreme outliers were few. The country median reduction in utilisation of nine health services for the whole period March-December 2020 was 3.9% (range: -8.2 to 2.4). The greatest reductions were observed for inpatient admissions (median=-17.0%) and outpatient admissions (median=-7.1%), while antenatal, delivery care and immunisation services generally had smaller reductions (median from -2% to -6%). Eastern African countries had greater reductions than those in West Africa, and rural districts were slightly more affected than urban districts. The greatest drop in services was observed for March-June 2020 for general services, when the response was strongest as measured by a stringency index.

CONCLUSION

The district health facility reports provide a solid basis for trend assessment after extensive data quality assessment and adjustment. Even the modest negative impact on service utilisation observed in most countries will require major efforts, supported by the international partners, to maintain progress towards the SDG health targets by 2030.

Development and evaluation of a package to improve hypertension control in Nigeria [DEPIHCON]: a cluster-randomized controlled trial

Background

Nigeria’s healthcare system capacity to stem the increasing trend in hypertension is limited in coverage, scope and manpower. Use of trained community-based care providers demonstrated to be an effective complement in improving access to, and supporting healthcare delivery has not been adequately examined for hypertension care in Nigeria. This study is proposed to evaluate the effectiveness of using trained community-oriented resource persons (CORPs) to improve hypertension control in Nigeria.

Methods

An intervention study will be conducted in three states using a mixed method design. First is a baseline survey using a semi-structured pre-tested questionnaire to collect information on demographics, clinical data, knowledge, occurrence and risk factors of hypertension among 1704 adults ≥18 years. Focus group discussions (FGD) and key informant interviews (KII) will be conducted to explore a community’s experience of hypertension, challenges with hypertension management and support required to improve control in 10 selected communities in each state. The second is a cluster-randomized controlled trial to evaluate effect of a package on reduction of blood pressure (BP) and prevention of cardiovascular (CVD) risk factors among 200 hypertensive patients to be followed up in intervention and control arms over a 6-month period in each state. The package will include trained CORPs conducting community-based screening of BP and referral, diagnosis confirmation and initial treatment in the health facility, followed by monthly home-based follow-up care and provision of health education on hypertension control and healthy lifestyle enhanced by phone voice message reminders. In the control arm, the usual care (diagnosis, treatment and follow-up care in hospital of a patient’s choice) will continue. Third, an endline survey will be conducted in both intervention and control communities to evaluate changes in mean BP, control, knowledge and proportion of other CVD risk factors. In addition, FGD and KII will be used to assess participants’ perceived quality and acceptability of the interventions as delivered by CORPs.

Discussion

This research is expected to create awareness, improve knowledge, perception, behaviours, attitude and practices that will reduce hypertension in Nigeria. Advocacy for buy-in and scale up of using CORPs in hypertension care by the government is key if found to be effective.

Trial registration

PACTR Registry PACTR202107530985857. Registered on 26 July 2021.

Risk assessment for COVID-19 transmission at household level in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from DHS

Household habitat conditions matter for diseases transmission and control, especially in the case of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). These conditions include availability and adequacy of sanitation facilities, and number of persons per room. Despite this, little attention is being paid to these conditions as a pathway to understanding the transmission and prevention of COVID-19, especially in Africa, where household habitat conditions are largely suboptimal. This study assesses household sanitation and isolation capacities to understand the COVID-19 transmission risk at household level across Africa. We conducted a secondary analysis of the Demographic and Health Surveys of 16 African countries implemented between 2015 and 2018 to understand the status of households for prevention of COVID-19 transmission in home. We assessed handwashing capacity and self-isolation capacity using multiple parameters, and identified households with elderly persons, who are most at risk of the disease. We fitted two-level random intercept logit models to explore independent relationships among the three indicators, while controlling for the selected explanatory variables. Handwashing capacity was highest in Tanzania (48.2%), and lowest in Chad (4.2%), varying by household location (urban or rural), as well as household wealth. Isolation capacity was highest in South Africa (77.4%), and lowest in Ethiopia (30.9%). Senegal had the largest proportion of households with an elderly person (42.1%), while Angola (16.4%) had the lowest. There were strong, independent relationships between handwashing and isolation capacities in a majority of countries. Also, strong associations were found between isolation capacity and presence of older persons in households. Household capacity for COVID-19 prevention varied significantly across countries, with those having elderly household members not necessarily having the best handwashing or isolation capacity. In view of the age risk factors of COVID-19 transmission, and its dependence on handwashing and isolation capacities of households, each country needs to use the extant information on its risk status to shape communication and intervention strategies that will help limit the impact of the disease in its population across Africa.

Illness perception amongst adults with multimorbidity at primary care clinics in Southwest Nigeria

Background

Although shreds of evidence are emerging to show the role of illness perceptions in the health outcomes of patients, most of the previous studies have been on single chronic conditions.

Aim

To assess the illness perceptions and the associated factors amongst adults with multimorbidity.

Setting

General outpatient clinics of the University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted amongst a systematic sample of 403 adults with multimorbidity. Data on illness perception and other variables were collected using interviewer-administered questionnaires. Descriptive statistics, chi-square test, t-test and analysis of variance were employed for analyses.

Results

The age of the participants ranged from 18 to 97 years, with a mean of 60.9 years (standard deviation [s.d.] ± 14.3 years). The majority of participants (57.3%) were women. Ninety-four (23.3%) respondents had only two morbid conditions, whilst 31.2% had at least four morbid conditions. Prioritisation sub-domain of illness perception recorded the highest score (mean = 2.0, s.d. ± 0.8), whilst the treatment burden sub-domain was the lowest (mean = 0.8, s.d. ± 0.7). A significant bivariate relationship was observed between emotional representation (p = 0.001), prioritisation (p = 0.013) and causal relationship (p = 0.013) sub-domains and age group of study participants. Emotional burden associated with illnesses declined as educational level increased (p = 0.039).

Conclusion

Patient’s characteristics such as age, education and the number of morbidities are associated with illness perception. Healthcare providers should pay attention to these factors whilst addressing illness perception as a way to achieve better clinical outcomes.

Caregiver burden and associated factors amongst carers of women with advanced breast cancer attending a radiation oncology clinic in Nigeria

BACKGROUND

The responsibility of caring for patients with advanced cancer in sub-Saharan Africa is mostly shouldered by family members because of paucity of institutional facilities. There is a growing concern that the number of women needing treatment for advanced breast cancer is rising at an unprecedented rate in Nigeria.

AIM

To assess the caregiver burden and its associated factors amongst family caregivers of women with advanced breast cancer.

SETTING

The study was conducted at the radiation oncology clinic of the University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria.

METHODS

A cross-sectional descriptive study was conducted amongst 157 eligible family caregivers of women with advanced breast cancer. The family caregivers completed an interviewer-administered questionnaire, which included the socio-demographic data, the caregiving process and the Zarit Burden Interview (ZBI). Logistic regression was used to identify factors, and ethical approval was obtained.

RESULTS

Over half (53%) of the respondents were males with spousal caregivers dominantly constituting 27.4% of all respondents, closely followed by daughters (25.5%) of the care recipients. The mean ZBI score was 29.84 ± 13.9. Most (72%) of the caregivers experienced burden. Factors associated with caregiver burden were previous hospitalisation of the care recipient (odds ratio [OR] = 3.74, confidence interval [CI]: 1.67 to 8.38) and perceived dysfunction in patients activities of daily living (OR = 2.57, CI: 1.14 to 5.78).

CONCLUSION

Family caregivers of women with advanced breast cancer experience burden of care. Recognition of this vulnerable population and the care recipient as a dyad is a sine qua non in mitigating the burden associated with their caregiving role.

Prevalence and Correlates of Frailty Syndrome among Older Adults Attending Chief Tony Anenih Geriatric Centre, University College Hospital, Ibadan

BACKGROUND

Frailty has emerged as an important clinical measurement among older adults because of its negative health outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

This study measured the prevalence and factors associated with frailty among older adults aged 60 years and above at a Geriatric Centre in Nigeria.

METHODS

In this descriptive cross-sectional study, 971 older adults were recruited consecutively. Data on sociodemographics characteristics and clinical parameters were obtained using an interviewer-administered questionnaire and physical examination performed. The Frailty syndrome and Frailty Index were assessed using the Fried Frailty Criteria (FFC) and Canadian Study of Health and Aging (CSHA) scale respectively. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were carried out using SPSS version 21 at a p <0.05.

RESULTS

The mean age of the participants was 71.3 (± 7.1) years with a female to male ratio of 2.4:1. Based on FFC scale, 498 older persons (51.3%) had frailty syndrome while only 148 (15.2%) were frail using the CSHA scale. The measure of agreement (Kappa statistics) was 0.22 (p<0001) indicating weak agreement between the two scales. Logistic regression analysis revealed increasing age (OR=1.948 [1.219-3.113]), multiple morbidities (OR= 1.584, [1.177-2.201]), depression (OR= 5.050, [2.501-9.442,]), imbalance or increased risk of fall (OR 1.623, [1.192-2.211,]), and inability to perform IADL (OR= 0.599 [0.535-0.670,]) to be the most significant determinants of frailty syndrome while obesity (OR=0.660, [0.449-0.971]), unusually appeared a deterrent.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of frailty syndrome was high among the older adults. Targeted and timely interventions on the modifiable factors may delay progression into frailty and the eventual negative health outcomes.

Death registration in Nigeria: a systematic literature review of its performance and challenges

Background

Death registration provides an opportunity for the legal documentation of death of persons. Documentation of deaths has several implications including its use in the recovery of inheritance and insurance benefits. It is also an important input for construction of life tables which are crucial for national planning. However, the registration of deaths is poor in several countries including Nigeria.

Objective

This paper describes the performance of death registration in Nigeria and factors that may affect its performance.

Methods

We conducted a systematic literature review of death registration completeness in Nigeria to identify, characterize issues as well as challenges associated with realizing completeness in death registration.

Results

Only 13.5% of deaths in Nigeria were registered in 2007 which regressed to 10% in 2017. There was no data reported for Nigeria in the World Health Organization database between 2008 and 2017. The country scored less than 0.1 (out of a maximum of 1) on the Vital Statistics Performance Index. There are multiple institutions with parallel constitutional and legal responsibilities for death registration in Nigeria including the National Population Commission, National Identity Management Commission and Local Government Authorities, which may be contributing to its overall poor performance.

Conclusions

We offer proposals to substantially improve death registration completeness in Nigeria including the streamlining and merger of the National Population Commission and the National Identity Management Commission into one commission, the revision of the legal mandate of the new agency to mainly coordination and establishment of standards. We recommend that Local Government authorities maintain the local registries given their proximity to households. This arrangement will be enhanced by increased utilization of information and communications technology in Civil Registration and Vital Statistics processes that ensure records are properly archived.

Demography of remarriage and fertility desire among women receiving antiretroviral therapy in South West Nigeria

Background: In view of sociocultural norms surrounding marriage and childbearing in South West Nigeria, fertility desire may be stronger among remarried women living with HIV. This article describes the characteristics of remarriage and its relationship to fertility desire.Method: A cross-sectional study was conducted among HIV-positive women aged 18-49 years at the Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) clinic, College of Medicine/University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria between November and December 2015. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics and generalised linear models.Results: Overall, 123 (17.3%) of 711 women had experienced remarriage. Significant factors among remarried women were a lack of formal education (OR_adj = 3.35, CI: 1.46-7.72); polygamous family (OR_adj = 2.65, CI: 1.71-4.12), and serodiscordant union (OR_adj = 1.97, CI: 1.14-3.41). Fertility desire was expressed by 410 women (57.7%). After controlling for demographic, socio-economic, and HIV-care characteristics, remarried women were 2.5 times as likely to have fertility desire compared to their counterparts who never remarried (OR_adj = 2.49, CI: 1.43-4.33). Younger age was significantly associated with higher odds of fertility desire. Other factors negatively associated with fertility desire were education (OR_adj = 0.30, CI: 0.12-0.74) and number of surviving children (OR_adj = 0.28, CI: 0.22-0.34).Conclusion: HIV-care and treatment programmes need to pay attention to reproductive concerns, especially among women in second and higher order marriages.

The spread of COVID-19 outbreak in the first 120 days: a comparison between Nigeria and seven other countries

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 is an emerging public health emergency of international concern. The trajectory of the global spread is worrisome, particularly in heavily populated countries such as Nigeria. The study objective was to assess and compare the pattern of COVID-19 spread in Nigeria and seven other countries during the first 120 days of the outbreak.

METHODS

Data was extracted from the World Bank's website. A descriptive analysis was conducted as well as modelling of COVID-19 spread from day one through day 120 in Nigeria and seven other countries. Model fitting was conducted using linear, quadratic, cubic and exponential regression methods (α=0.05).

RESULTS

The COVID-19 spread pattern in Nigeria was similar to the patterns in Egypt, Ghana and Cameroun. The daily death distribution in Nigeria was similar to those of six out of the seven countries considered. There was an increasing trend in the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases in Nigeria. During the lockdown, the growth rate in Nigeria was 5.85 (R2=0.728, p< 0.001); however, it was 8.42 (R2=0.625, p< 0.001) after the lockdown was relaxed. The cubic polynomial model (CPM) provided the best fit for predicting COVID-19 cumulative cases across all the countries investigated and there was a clear deviation from the exponential growth model. Using the CPM, the predicted number of cases in Nigeria at 3-month (30 September 2020) was 155,467 (95% CI:151,111-159,824, p< 0.001), all things being equal.

CONCLUSIONS

Improvement in COVID-19 control measures and strict compliance with the COVID-19 recommended protocols are essential. A contingency plan is needed to provide care for the active cases in case the predicted target is attained.

How soon do single mothers have another child? A competing risk analysis of second premarital childbearing in sub-Saharan African countries

BACKGROUND

A considerable number of previous studies have examined the trends, correlates, and consequences of premarital childbearing among adolescents and young women in Africa. However, very little is known about whether and how soon single mothers have another premarital birth in sub-Saharan African countries. This study examines the timing of a second premarital birth among single mothers and assesses how it may differ across key socio-demographic variables.

METHODS

We pooled recent Demographic and Health Surveys from 25 sub-Saharan African countries to create a database of 57, 219 single mothers aged 15-49 years. Cumulative incidence graphs and Fine and Gray's competing risk models were used to delineate the timing of a second premarital birth and its socio-demographic correlates.

RESULTS

More than one-third of single mothers in 16 countries have had a second premarital birth in their reproductive life. We also observed that more than 15% of the single mothers in Angola, Benin, the Republic of Chad, Liberia, Namibia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, and Uganda, have had another premarital birth three years after the first. The incidence of a second premarital birth was significantly lower among women with secondary or higher education, compared to women with less than secondary education (p < 0.05) in most countries. Residence in an urban area compared to rural, was also significantly associated with a low incidence of second premarital birth in 10 countries (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Findings indicate a rapid progression to having a second premarital birth in some sub-Sahara African countries, particularly among socio-economically disadvantaged women. The findings suggest the need for tailored interventions for improving the quality of life of single mothers, to reduce the associated burden and consequences of having a premarital birth.

Does economic growth reduce childhood stunting? A multicountry analysis of 89 Demographic and Health Surveys in sub-Saharan Africa

Background

There is mixed evidence and lack of consensus on the impact of economic development on stunting, and likewise there is a dearth of empirical studies on this relationship in the case of sub-Saharan Africa. Thus, this paper examines whether economic growth is associated with childhood stunting in low-income and middle-income sub-Saharan African countries.

Methods

We analysed data from 89 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 1987 and 2016 available as of October 2018 using multivariable multilevel logistic regression models to show the association between gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and stunting. We adjusted the models for child's age, survey year, child's sex, birth order and country random effect, and presented adjusted and unadjusted ORs.

Results

We included data from 490 526 children. We found that the prevalence of stunting decreased with increasing GDP per capita (correlation coefficient=-0.606, p<0.0001). In the unadjusted model for full sample, for every US$1000 increase in GDP per capita, the odds of stunting decreased by 23% (OR=0.77, 95% CI 0.76 to 0.78). The magnitude of the association between GDP per capita and stunting was stronger among children in the richest quintile. After adjustment was made, the association was not significant among children from the poorest quintile. However, the magnitude of the association was more pronounced among children from low-income countries, such that, in the model adjusted for child's age, survey year, child's sex, birth order and country random effect, the association between GDP per capita and stunting remained statistically significant; for every US$1000 increase in GDP per capita, the odds of stunting decreased by 12% (OR=0.88, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.90).

Conclusion

There was no significant association between economic growth and child nutritional status. The prevalence of stunting decreased with increasing GDP per capita. This was more pronounced among children from the richest quintile. The magnitude of the association was higher among children from low-income countries, suggesting that households in the poorest quintile were typically the least likely to benefit from economic gains. The findings could serve as a building block needed to modify current policy as per child nutrition-related programmes in Africa.

Patterns of delivery assistance among adolescent mothers in Nigeria

OBJECTIVE

This study examined the sociodemographic and sociocultural factors associated with the pattern of birth assistance used among adolescent mothers aged 15-19 in Nigeria.

DESIGN

The study used a quantitative design, using secondary data from the Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 2003 and 2013.

SETTING

The study was nationally representative and conducted across Nigeria.

PARTICIPANTS

A weighted sample of 2,096 adolescent mothers aged 15-19.

MEASUREMENTS AND FINDINGS

Data were analysed using frequencies, chi square tests and multinomial logistic regression respectively. It was discovered that mothers aged 18 and above had lower odds of using traditional and skilled birth attendants (aORs = 0.68 (0.51-0.92); 0.63 (0.44-0.92)); Igbo mothers had lower odds of using TBAs (aOR = 0.03 (0.002-0.53)); and mothers in female-headed households were less likely to use SBAs (aOR = 0.40 (0.20-0.82)). Rich mothers were more likely to use SBAs (aOR = 2.21 (1.23-3.94)). Mothers whose partners had at least primary education were more likely to use SBAs (aOR = 1.73 (1.09-2.73); 1.64 (1.03-2.59)). Adolescent mothers in the North East (aOR = 5.79 (2.91-11.51)), North West (aOR = 8.24 (4.01-16.93)), South East (aOR = 69.70 (13.96-348.05)) and South South (aOR = 27.84(7.80-99.30)) were more likely to use TBAs, while mothers in the North East (aOR = 0.46 (0.28-0.76)) and North West (aOR = 0.50 (0.29-0.84)) were less likely to use SBAs. Mothers who used partial ANC were more likely to use SBAs (aOR = 5.73 (3.43-9.56)), while those who used full ANC were more likely to use SBA (aOR = 7.33 (4.76-11.29)).

KEY CONCLUSIONS

Higher socioeconomic status mothers were more likely to use skilled birth attendance.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

Interventions to increase SBA use among adolescent mothers in Nigeria must consider the continued preference for traditional and unskilled birth attendants and unassisted births, and design culturally sensitive programmes.

Does Female Autonomy Affect Contraceptive Use among Women in Northern Nigeria?

Literature identified female empowerment as a predictor of positive health behaviour. However, in the context of conservative and traditional society, this is yet to be explored. This paper explores the role of female autonomy in contraceptive use among currently married women in northern Nigeria. Nationally representative Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS, 2013) data for 18,534 currently married women in northern Nigeria was analysed. Complimentary log-logistic regression (cloglog) was used to analyse the data. Current use of modern contraceptive was 6.6% among currently married women in northern Nigeria. Results show that female autonomy was significantly associated with modern contraceptive use. Respondents' education, wealth status and desire for no more children were associated with higher contraceptive use. Despite the conservative and religious context of northern Nigeria, female autonomy significantly predicts modern contraceptive use. Thus, empowering women in northern Nigeria, especially by education, will enable them to participate in healthy contraceptive decision making.

TREATMENT RESPONSE IN ADULT PATIENTS WITH HYPERTENSION ATTENDING A SECONDARY HEALTH CARE CENTER IN SOUTH-WEST NIGERIA

BACKGROUND

There has been an increase in prevalence of hypertension worldwide and a trend towards poor control of hypertension. Despite the development of new guidelines on management of hypertension, it remains a difficult disease to control.

METHODS

The study was a prospective cohort study of 386 patients aged 18 to 70 years with uncontrolled hypertension. A simple random sampling technique with computer generated random numbers was used for selection.

RESULTS

Majority (58.3%) of the respondents who were overweight had diastolic blood pressure of less than 100 mmHg while 55 (41.7%) respondents who were overweight had diastolic blood pressure of 100mmHg to 110mmHg. Forty (42.1%) of the respondents who were obese had diastolic blood pressure of less than 100mmHg while 55 (57.9%) respondents who were obese had diastolic blood pressure of 100mmHg to 110mmHg. The association was statistically significant (χ2 = 9.845, p-value = 0.02). There was a significant difference between the mean first Systolic Blood pressure and the mean third systolic blood pressure. (< 0.001, 95% CI 19.01- 23.04). Also there was a significant difference between the mean first Diastolic Blood pressure and the mean third Diastolic Blood pressure. (p < 0.001, 95% CI 11.13-11.56).

CONCLUSION

This study has shown that increasing body weight was associated with high blood pressures and health education on management of hypertension had significant effect in reducing blood pressures and subsequently leading to better control of hypertension.

Randomized Trial of an Intervention to Improve Blood Pressure Control in Stroke Survivors

BACKGROUND

We conducted the first-of-its kind randomized stroke trial in Africa to test whether a THRIVES (Tailored Hospital-based Risk reduction to Impede Vascular Events after Stroke) intervention improved blood pressure (BP) control among patients with stroke.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Intervention comprised a patient global risk factor control report card, personalized phone text-messaging, and educational video. Four hundred patients recruited from 4 distinct medical facilities in Nigeria, aged ≥18 years with stroke-onset within one-year, were randomized to THRIVES intervention and control group. The control group also received text messages, and both groups received modest financial incentives. The primary outcome was mean change in systolic BP (SBP) at 12 months. There were 36.5% females, 72.3% with ischemic stroke; mean age was 57.2±11.7 years; 93.5% had hypertension and mean SBP was 138.33 (23.64) mm Hg. At 12 months, there was no significant difference in SBP reduction from baseline in the THRIVES versus control group (2.32 versus 2.01 mm Hg, P=0.82). In an exploratory analysis of subjects with baseline BP >140/90 mm Hg (n=168), THRIVES showed a significant mean SBP (diastolic BP) decrease of 11.7 (7.0) mm Hg while control group showed a significant mean SBP (diastolic BP) decrease of 11.2 (7.9) mm Hg at 12 months.

CONCLUSIONS

THRIVES intervention did not significantly reduce SBP compared with controls. However, there was similar significant decrease in mean BP in both treatment arms in the subgroup with baseline hypertension. As text-messaging and a modest financial incentive were the common elements between both treatment arms, further research is required to establish whether these measures alone can improve BP control among stroke survivors.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01900756.

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

HCV co-infection is associated with metabolic abnormalities among HAART naive HIV-infected persons

OBJECTIVES

To determine the metabolic abnormalities among Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) co infected HAART naïve HIV infected persons within the adult ARV clinic of the University College Hospital/University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria Methods: This was a retrospective study involving the review of clinical records of newly recruited HIV-infected persons in the adult antiretroviral (ARV) clinic over a 12 month period (January - December 2006). Baseline results for fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and fasting lipid profile were retrieved.

RESULTS

Out of the 1,260 HIV infected persons seen during the study period, HCV co-infection was found in 75 (6%) persons. The median values for total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol and HDL-cholesterol were lower in the HCV co-infected persons. HIV-HCV co-infection was associated with a 0.31 mmol/L depression in Total Cholesterol (TC). The median FPG concentration was significantly higher in HIV-HCV co-infected than HIV only infected persons (5.33mmol/L vs. 5.00mmol/L, p = 0.047). However, regression analysis showed there was no relationship between the HIV-HCV co infected state and fasting glucose levels.

CONCLUSION

HIV-HCV co-infection may be associated with a predictable decline in plasma cholesterol, but FPG may not be sufficient to demonstrate insulin resistance in these persons.

Fertility, Family Size Preference and Contraceptive Use in Sub-Saharan Africa: 1990-2014

In view of an unusual transition in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) fertility, periodic re-appraisal is necessary. Using an ecological design, data from Demographic and Health Surveys between 1990 and 2014 were analysed to investigate trends in completed family size (CFS), total fertility rate (TFR), family size preference (FSP), and contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR). The correlates of changes in fertility levels, FSP and CPR were explored. Results showed that CFS declined and was lowest in Southern and Western Africa. However, average CFS for Central African countries appeared virtually the same over the period. Changes in TFR and FSP followed patterns similar to CFS. Western and Central region had very slow increase in CPR with many below 20% as at 2014. Eastern and Southern Africa had faster increase in CPR with some countries achieving almost 60%. Regression results showed that contraceptive prevalence (β= -1.96, p=0.027) and median age at first marriage (β= -0.23, p=0.06) were negatively related to TFR while employment (β= -21.7, p <0.001) was negatively related to FSP. In summary, fertility levels and family size preference declined while contraceptive use improved particularly in Southern and the Eastern Africa. Increased female labour force participation is another potential route to fertility decline in SSA.

Echocardiographic Abnormalities and Determinants of 1-Month Outcome of Stroke Among West Africans in the SIREN Study

Background

Little is known about the relationship between echocardiographic abnormalities and outcome among patients with acute stroke. We investigated the pattern and association of baseline echocardiographic variables with 1‐month disability and mortality among patients with stroke in the SIREN (Stroke Investigative Research and Education Network) study.

Methods and Results

We enrolled and followed up consecutive 1020 adult patients with acute stroke with baseline transthoracic echocardiography from west Africa. To explore the relationship between echocardiographic variables and 1‐month disability (using modified Rankin scale >3) and fatality, regression models were fitted. Relative risks were computed with 95% CIs. The participants comprised 60% men with a mean age of 59.2±14.6 years. Ischemic stroke was associated with smaller aortic root diameter (30.2 versus 32.5, P=0.018) and septal (16.8 versus 19.1, P<0.001) and posterior wall thickness at systole (18.9 versus 21.5, P=0.004). Over 90% of patients with stroke had abnormal left ventricular (LV) geometry with eccentric hypertrophy predominating (56.1%). Of 13 candidate variables investigated, only baseline abnormal LV geometry (concentric hypertrophy) was weakly associated with 1‐month disability (unadjusted relative risk, 1.80; 95% CI, 0.97–5.73). Severe LV systolic dysfunction was significantly associated with increased 1‐month mortality (unadjusted relative risk, 3.05; 95% CI, 1.36–6.83).

Conclusions

Nine of 10 patients with acute stroke had abnormal LV geometry and a third had systolic dysfunction. Severe LV systolic dysfunction was significantly associated with 1 month mortality. Larger studies are required to establish the independent effect and unravel predictive accuracy of this association.

Trends, Determinants and Health Risks of Adolescent Fatherhood in Sub-Saharan Africa

Background

This study examined the trends, determinants and health risks of adolescent fatherhood in three selected African countries where adolescent-girl pregnancy/motherhood are decried but with permissive male sexual latitude.

Methods

Adolescent male data were extracted from the malerecode datasets of Demographic Health Survey (2000-2014) for Nigeria, Ethiopia and Zambia. The surveys were grouped into 3-Waves: (2000-2004); (2005-2008) and (2011-2014). The study employed descriptive and binary logistics that tested the log-odds of adolescent fatherhood with respect to selected sexual behaviour indices, and individual and shared demographic variables.

Results

The results revealed that the number of lifetime-sexual-partners among the boys is ≥2. The likelihood of adolescent fatherhood is positively associated with increasing age at first cohabitation and multiple sexual partnerships (≥2) having OR=1.673 and OR=1.769 in 2005/2008 and 2011/2014 respectively. Adolescents who had attained tertiary education, and engaged in professional and skilled jobs were 0.313, 0.213 and 0.403 times (respectively) less likely to have ever-fathered a child. The positive association between rural place of residence and adolescent fatherhood in the past shifted to urban residents in 2011/2014.

Conclusion

The study concludes that early sexual activities and cohabitation are common among male adolescents among the countries of study. The authors recommend discouragement of boy-girl cohabitation, increasing access to higher education and job opportunities in order to stem boy-fatherhood incidence in the study locations and, by extension, other countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

Does education offset the effect of maternal disadvantage on childhood anaemia in Tanzania? Evidence from a nationally representative cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Despite being preventable, anaemia is a major public health problem that affects a sizable number of children under-five years globally and in Tanzania. This study examined the maternal factors associated with the risk of anaemia among under-five children in Tanzania. We also assessed whether higher maternal education could reduce the risks of anaemia among children of women with poor socio-economic status.

METHODS

Data was drawn from the 2015-16 Tanzania demographic and health survey and malaria indicator survey for 7916 children under five years. Adjusted odds ratios were estimated by fitting a proportional odds model to examine the maternal risk factors of anaemia. Stratified analysis was done to examine how the relationship differed across maternal educational levels.

RESULTS

The findings revealed that maternal disadvantage evident in young motherhood [AOR:1.43, 95%CI:1.16-1.75], no formal education [AOR:1.53, 95%CI:1.25-1.89], unemployment [AOR:1.31, 95%CI:1.15-1.49], poorest household wealth [AOR:1.50, 95%CI:1.17-1.91], and non-access to health insurance [AOR:1.26, 95%CI: 1.03-1.53] were risk factors of anaemia among children in the sample. Sub-group analysis by maternal education showed that the risks were not evident when the mother has secondary or higher education. However, having an unmarried mother was associated with about four-times higher risk of anaemia if the mother is uneducated [AOR:4.04, 95%CI:1.98-8.24] compared with if the mother is currently in union.

CONCLUSION

Findings from this study show that a secondary or higher maternal education may help reduce the socio-economic risk factors of anaemia among children under-5 years in Tanzania.

Death of preceding child and maternal healthcare services utilisation in Nigeria: investigation using lagged logit models

BACKGROUND

One of the factors responsible for high level of childhood mortality in Nigeria is poor utilization of maternal healthcare (MHC) services. Another important perspective which has been rarely explored is the influence of childhood death on MHC service utilization. In this study, we examined the relationship between death of preceding child and MHC services utilization [antenatal care (ANC), skilled attendant at birth (SAB), and postnatal care (PNC)] among Nigerian women and across the six geo-political zones of the country.

METHODOLOGY

We analyzed reproductive history dataset for 16,747 index births extracted from the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. The main explanatory variable was survival status of preceding child; therefore, only second or higher order births were considered. Analysis involved the use of descriptive statistics and lagged logit models fitted for each measure of MHC utilization. Association and statistical significance were expressed as adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with 95% confidence interval.

RESULTS

The use of MCH services for most recent births in the 2013 Nigeria DHS were ANC (56.0%), SAB (34.7%), and PNC (27.3%). Univariate models revealed that the death of preceding child was associated with lesser likelihood of ANC (OR = 0.64, CI 0.57-0.71), SAB (OR = 0.56, CI 0.50-0.63), and PNC (OR = 0.65, CI 0.55-0.69). Following adjustment for maternal socio-economic and bio-demographic variables, statistical significance in the relationship disappeared for the three MHC indicators: ANC (AOR = 1.00, CI 0.88-1.14), SAB (AOR = 0.97, CI 0.81-1.15), and PNC (AOR = 0.95, CI 0.83-1.11). There were no significant variations across the six geo-political regions in Nigeria. The likelihood of ANC utilization was higher when the preceding child died in Northcentral (AOR = 1.19, CI 0.84-1.70), Northeast (AOR = 1.26, CI 0.99-1.59), and South-south (AOR = 1.19, CI 0.72-1.99) regions while the reverse is the case in Southeast (AOR = 0.39, CI 0.23-0.60). For the Southeast, similar result was obtained for ANC, SAB, and PNC.

CONCLUSION

Death of a preceding child does not predict MHC services use in Nigeria especially when maternal socio-economic characteristics are controlled. Variations across the Northern and Southern regions did not attain statistical significance. Interventions are needed to reverse the pattern such that greater MHC utilization is recorded among women who have experienced child death.

Screen and Triage by Community Extension Workers to Facilitate Screen and Treat: Task-Sharing Strategy to Achieve Universal Coverage for Cervical Cancer Screening in Nigeria

Purpose Universal coverage of cervical cancer screening remains elusive in most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), home to the greatest burden of this preventable disease. Implementation of a cytology-based screening strategy in these countries is challenging. Also, there is shortage of health care workers (HCWs) to implement the low-technology, cheaper, but equally effective, methods like visual inspection with acetic acid. However, the implementation of HIV programs in LMICs has introduced the innovation of task shifting and task sharing, using the community health extension workers (CHEWs) and community health officers (CHOs) to complement clinical HCWs, especially at the primary health care, level with good outcome. Hence, this study leveraged this strategy. Methods We piloted a study to improve knowledge and practice skills of CHEWs and CHOs in a rural community of Oyo state, Nigeria, through training and participatory supervision to screen for cervical cancer using visual inspection with acetic acid and link positive cases for treatment with cryotherapy. Results A total of 51 HCWs, including doctors, nurses, CHEWs, and CHOs, were trained during the study to provide cervical cancer screening services. After the training, cervical cancer and its prevention knowledge improved from 52.4% before training to 91.5% immediate after training. Over 12 months, 950 eligible women were screened, of whom 848 (89.3%) were screened by CHEWs and CHOs. Of the 63 rescreened by CHEWs and CHOs (data grouped), and nurses, 88.1% and 92.3%, respectively, agreed with expert team review, with κ statistics of 0.76 and 0.84, respectively. Conclusion This pilot project showed the ability of CHEWs and CHOs to identify cervical dysplasia was good and that of nurses was very good with appropriate competency training to achieve universal coverage of cervical cancer screening in LMICs.

Ethnic heterogeneity in the determinants of HIV/AIDS stigma and discrimination among Nigeria women

BACKGROUND

Stigma and discrimination remains a barrier to uptake of HIV/AIDS counselling and treatment as well as effective HIV reduction programmes. Despite ethnic diversity of Nigeria, studies on determinants of HIV stigma incorporating the ethnic dimension are very few. This paper provides empirical explanation of the ethnic dimension of determinant of HIV stigma and discrimination in Nigeria.

METHODS

Nationally representative data from Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey 2013 (Individual recode) was analysed to explore ethnic differentials and homogeneity in the determinants of HIV/AIDS stigma and discrimination among women in multi-ethnic Nigeria.

RESULTS

Result shows that determinants of HIV stigma and discrimination varies by ethnicity in Nigeria. Significant ethnic differentials in HIV/AIDS stigma and discrimination by Secondary school education exist among Hausa and Igbo respectively (OR = 0.79; CI: 1.49-2.28 and OR=1.62; CI: 1.18-2.23, p<0.05). Wealth status significantly influenced HIIV/AIDS stigma and discrimination among Hausa, Igbo and Yoruba ethnic groups (p<0.05). Knowledge of HIV/AIDS was significantly associated with lower odds of discriminating attitudes among the Hausa and Fulani ethnic groups (OR = 0.45; CI: 0.30-0.67 and OR=0.36; CI: 0.16-0.83, p<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Identifying ethnic differential and homogeneity in predictors of HIV/AIDS stigma is key to reducing HIV/AIDS prevalence in Nigeria and countries with similar settings.

Maternal Employment and Child Survival During the Era of Sustainable Development Goals: Insights from Proportional Hazards Modelling of Nigeria Birth History Data

Background:

One of the targets for the third and fifth Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) borders on children survival and women economic empowerment, respectively. A robust investigation of the relationship between maternal employment and childhood mortality will provide information useful for programs aimed at ensuring the complementarity of SDG 3 (healthy life for all) and SDG 5 (gender equality, girls and women empowerment).

Objective:

We addressed the following questions: (1) What is the independent relationship between maternal employment and infant (0–11 months) and child (12–59 months) mortality in Nigeria? (2) How does father’s occupation, type of residence, and geopolitical region modify the relationship?

Methods:

We retrospectively analysed cross-sectional data on weighted sample of 31,828 under-five children extracted from the birth history in the 2013 round of Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey, using Cox proportional hazards models. The outcomes of interest were infant (0–11 months) and child (12–59 months) mortality, and the main explanatory variables include maternal employment, involvement in decision making on work earnings, and father’s occupation. Other confounding variables were also controlled.

Findings:

Results showed that about two-third (68.7%) of under-five children had mothers who were working, with the majority engaged in self-employed occupations such as sales or small businesses, agriculture, and other manual labour. Infant mortality rate amongst children of employed mothers (65 per 1000 live births) was slightly less than the unemployed (70 per 1000 live births). A similar pattern was observed for child mortality. Hazards regression models revealed that the risk of both infant and child mortality was higher amongst unemployed women. Sales and agriculture/manual occupation constituted a higher risk for infant and child mortality. Analysis of interaction effects also revealed variations by father’s occupation, type of residence, and geopolitical region.

Conclusion:

The role of maternal employment in child survival is dynamic and depends on the type of occupation, family, and residential and regional context.

Decomposition of changes in malaria prevalence amongst under-five children in Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Malaria remains a major public health problem in Nigeria. Changes in malaria prevalence can be attributed to three major control interventions: insecticide treated nets (ITNs), indoor residual spraying (IRS) and intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp). Use of ITNs has proven to be a practical, highly effective, and cost-effective intervention against malaria. Although, several studies have assessed the utilisation of ITNs, its impact on the prevalence of malaria over time is yet to be documented in Nigeria. Therefore, this study was conducted to decompose changes in malaria prevalence amongst under-five children between 2003 and 2013.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective analysis of the 2003 and 2013 Nigeria Demographic Health Survey (NDHS) dataset was conducted. Occurrence of fever was used as a proxy for malaria. Percentage change in both outcome and explanatory variables between 2003 and 2013 was estimated. A multivariate decomposition technique was used to partition changes in malaria prevalence into two components: contribution of changes in determinants and changes in the effect of determinants.

RESULTS

A total of 5204 and 28634 records of children under-five were available in 2003 and 2013 respectively. Malaria prevalence declined from 31.8% to 13.1% between 2003 and 2013 (p<0.001). Changes in determinants contributed 4.7% and changes in the effect of determinants contributed 95.3% to the change in malaria prevalence.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a decline in the prevalence of malaria amongst children under five in Nigeria in the last ten years. Ownership of ITNs and their utilisation were the most contributing factors to the decline in malaria prevalence. Continued efforts should be made in promoting ITNs and their consistent and appropriate utilisation.

Screen and Triage to Facilitate Screen and Treat by Community Health Extension Workers: Task-Sharing Strategy to Achieve Universal Cervical Cancer Screening in Nigeria

Abstract 31

Purpose

Universal access to cervical cancer screening remains elusive in most low- to middle-income countries, which shoulder the greatest burden of this preventable disease. Whereas a cytology-based screening strategy is logistically impossible, the shortage of health care workers (HCWs) and appropriate training limit the implementation of cheaper and equally effective methods, such as visual inspection after application of acetic acid (VIA); however, effective use of task shifting and sharing to involve community health extension workers (CHEWs) in HIV program delivery in low- to middle-income countries has brought innovation to bear in overcoming the HCW shortage. Hence, this study leveraged this novel strategy to pilot the provision of cervical cancer screening by CHEWs in Nigeria. The current study aimed to train and support the available health care workforce in rural communities to achieve population coverage for cervical cancer screening and reduce the cervical cancer burden in Nigeria.

Methods

We piloted improving the knowledge and practice skills of CHEWs/CHOs in a rural local government area of Oyo state, Nigeria, to provide community-level cervical cancer screening service. Improvement in knowledge and skills was accomplished through training, technical and infrastructural support, and participatory supervision for HCWs in the PHCs and general hospital in the local government area using the VIA method and by linking VIA-positive cases to the general hospital to screen and treat.

Results

Fifty-one HCWs, including physicians, nurses, and CHEWs/CHOs, were trained with five PHCs, and the general hospital was provided with materials with which to administer cervical cancer screening services. Participants’ knowledge improved from an average of 50.5% at pretraining to 88.8% immediately post-training. Of the 950 eligible women who were screened in 1 year, 848 (89.3%) were screened by CHEWs/CHOs. Of the 66 who were screened as VIA positive by CHEWs/CHOs, 58 (88.1%) agreed with the supervisory team review compared with 18 (92.3%) of 19 who were screened by nurses (κ statistics, 0.84 and 0.76, respectively). Three cases of invasive cervical cancer were diagnosed during this period, two of which were by CHEWs/CHOs.

Conclusion

This pilot project demonstrated that, with appropriate competency training and necessary support, CHEWs/CHOs can successfully identify cervical dysplasia. These HCWs are important resources to leverage to achieve universal coverage of cervical cancer screening services in Nigeria. We plan to expand this program to involve the seven health zones in Oyo state, Nigeria, in a hub and spoke manner to establish its wider feasibility.

AUTHORS' DISCLOSURES OF POTENTIAL CONFLICTS OF INTEREST

No COIs from the authors.

HIV-Stigma in Nigeria: Review of Research Studies, Policies, and Programmes

Nigeria has about 3.8 million people living with HIV, the second largest globally. Stigma and discrimination are major barriers to testing, treatment uptake, and adherence. In this review, we synthesized information on research studies, policies, and programmes related to HIV-stigma in Nigeria. This was with a view to identify critical areas that research and programmes must address in order to accelerate the progress towards zero (new infections, discrimination, and death) target by year 2030. Existing studies were mostly devoted to stigma assessment using varieties of measures. Research, policies, and programmes in the past two decades have made very useful contributions to stigma reduction. We identified the need for a consistent, valid, and objective measure of stigma at different levels of the HIV response. Nigeria does not lack relevant policies; what needs to be strengthened are design, planning, implementation, monitoring, and evaluation of context-specific stigma reduction programmes.

The effect of internal migration, individual and contextual characteristics on contraceptive use among Nigerian women

We investigated the relation of internal migration to contraceptive use and adjusted for individual and contextual (community) characteristics. Multilevel logistic regression models were fitted to nationally representative data of 28,876 women from 884 communities in Nigeria. Only about one out of every 10 women (10.4%) currently used a contraceptive method. Contraceptive prevalence according to the migration status were rural-urban (12.5%), urban-rural (13.8%), rural nonmigrants (6.2%) and urban nonmigrants (17.1%). The relationship between internal migration and contraceptive use was fully explained by individual and community characteristics. Programs aimed at increasing contraceptive prevalence should address contextual challenges alongside socioeconomic factors.