How prevalent is COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in low-income and middle-income countries and what are the key drivers of hesitancy? Results from 53 countries

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to estimate the levels of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in 53 low-income and middle-income countries, differences across population groups in hesitancy, and self-reported reasons for being hesitant to take the COVID-19 vaccine.

METHODS

This paper presents new evidence on levels and trends of vaccine hesitancy in low-income and middle-income countries based on harmonised high-frequency phone surveys from more than 120 000 respondents in 53 low-income and middle-income countries collected between October 2020 and August 2021. These countries represent a combined 53% of the population of low-income and middle-income countries excluding India and China.

RESULTS

On average across countries, one in five adults reported being hesitant to take the COVID-19 vaccine, with the most cited reasons for hesitancy being concerns about the safety of the vaccine, followed by concerns about its efficacy. Between late 2020 and the first half of 2021, there tended to be little change in hesitancy rates in 11 of the 14 countries with available data, while hesitancy increased in Iraq, Malawi and Uzbekistan. COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy was higher among female, younger adults and less educated respondents, after controlling for selected observable characteristics.

CONCLUSIONS

Country estimates of vaccine hesitancy from the high-frequency phone surveys are correlated with but lower than those from earlier studies, which often relied on less representative survey samples. The results suggest that vaccine hesitancy in low-income and middle-income countries, while less prevalent than previously thought, will be an important and enduring obstacle to recovery from the pandemic.

Foregone Health Care During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Early Survey Estimates from 39 Low- and Middle-Income Countries

In addition to the direct health effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the pandemic has increased the risks of foregone non-COVID-19 health care. Likely, these risks are greatest in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where health systems are less resilient and economies more fragile. However, there are no published studies on the prevalence of foregone health care during the pandemic in LMICs. We used pooled data from phone surveys conducted between April and August 2020, covering 73,638 households in 39 LMICs. We estimated the prevalence of foregone care and the relative importance of various reported reasons for foregoing care, disaggregated by country-income group and region. In the sample, 18·8% (95% CI 17·8%-19·8%) of households reported not being able to access health care when needed. Financial barriers were the most-commonly self-reported reason for foregoing care, cited by 31·4% (28·6%-34·3%) of households. More households in wealthier countries reported foregoing care for reasons related to COVID-19 ((27·2% [22·5%-31·8%] in upper middle-income countries compared to 8·0% [4·7%-11·3%] in low-income countries); more households in poorer countries reported foregoing care due to financial reasons (65·6% [59·9%-71·2%]) compared to 17·4% [13·1%-21·6%] in upper middle-income countries. A substantial proportion of households in LMICs had to forgo health care in the early months of the pandemic. While in richer countries this was largely due to fear of contracting COVID-19 or lockdowns, in poorer countries foregone care was due to financial constraints.

The costs of stunting in South Asia and the benefits of public investments in nutrition

South Asia is home to the largest number of stunted children worldwide: 65 million or 37% of all South Asian children under 5 were stunted in 2014. The costs to society as a result of stunting during childhood are high and include increased mortality, increased morbidity (in childhood and later as adults), decreased cognitive ability, poor educational outcomes, lost earnings and losses to national economic productivity. Conversely, investing in nutrition provides many benefits for poverty reduction and economic growth. This article draws from analyses conducted in four sub‐Saharan countries to demonstrate that investments in nutrition can also be very cost‐effective in South Asian countries. Specifically, the analyses demonstrate that scaling up a set of 10 critical nutrition‐specific interventions is highly cost‐effective when considered as a package. Most of the interventions are also very cost‐effective when considered individually. By modelling cost‐effectiveness of different scale‐up scenarios, the analysis offers insights into ways in which the impact of investing in nutrition interventions can be maximized under budget constraints. Rigorous estimations of the costs and benefits of nutrition investments, similar to those reported here for sub‐Saharan countries, are an important next step for all South Asian countries in order to drive political commitment and action and to enhance allocative efficiency of nutrition resources.

Reaching the global target to reduce stunting: an investment framework

Childhood stunting, being short for one's age, has life-long consequences for health, human capital and economic growth. Being stunted in early childhood is associated with slower cognitive development, reduced schooling attainment and adult incomes decreased by 5-53%. The World Health Assembly has endorsed global nutrition targets including one to reduce the number of stunted children under five by 40% by 2025. The target has been included in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG target 2.2). This paper estimates the cost of achieving this target and develops scenarios for generating the necessary financing. We focus on a key intervention package for stunting (KIPS) with strong evidence of effectiveness. Annual scale-up costs for the period of 2016-25 were estimated for a sample of 37 high burden countries and extrapolated to all low and middle income countries. The Lives Saved Tool was used to model the impact of the scale-up on stunting prevalence. We analysed data on KIPS budget allocations and expenditure by governments, donors and households to derive a global baseline financing estimate. We modelled two financing scenarios, a 'business as usual', which extends the current trends in domestic and international financing for nutrition through 2025, and another that proposes increases in financing from all sources under a set of burden-sharing rules. The 10-year financial need to scale up KIPS is US$49.5 billion. Under 'business as usual', this financial need is not met and the global stunting target is not reached. To reach the target, current financing will have to increase from US$2.6 billion to US$7.4 billion a year on average. Reaching the stunting target is feasible but will require large coordinated investments in KIPS and a supportive enabling environment. The example of HIV scale-up over 2001-11 is instructive in identifying the factors that could drive such a global response to childhood stunting.

Reaching the Global Target to Increase Exclusive Breastfeeding: How Much Will It Cost and How Can We Pay for It?

There is an urgent need for global action to increase the rates of exclusive breastfeeding. In 2012, the World Health Assembly (WHA) set a global target to increase the rate of exclusive breastfeeding in the first 6 months up to at least 50% by 2025. However, current investment levels are insufficient to drive the kind of progress that is needed to meet the target. Reaching the global nutrition target of increasing exclusive breastfeeding to 50% will require an average annual investment of $570 million over 10 years in addition to what is currently being spent. This investment is projected to result in an additional 105 million children being exclusively breastfed and at least 520,000 child deaths prevented over the next 10 years. This analysis was part of an investment framework developed by the World Bank, Results for Development Institute, and 1,000 Days to provide policy makers with a roadmap for how to reach four of the six WHA global nutrition targets: decreasing childhood stunting, decreasing childhood wasting, decreasing rates of anemia in women of reproductive age, and increasing exclusive breastfeeding in the first 6 months.