C-reactive protein as a possible modifier of Lipoprotein(a)-related risk for coronary heart disease in Europe: results from the BiomarCARE project

Background

Lipoprotein(a) (Lp(a)) represents a unique proatherogenic lipoprotein with potent pro-thrombotic and pro-inflammatory properties. Recent studies demonstrated that Lp(a)-associated risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) was significantly increased only in individuals with a high inflammatory burden (i.e. hsCRP levels >2 mg/L). However, these results have been either based on a post-hoc analysis in a highly selected study population with a high/very high CVD risk, or conducted within a multi-ethnic population with significant variation in Lp(a) levels.

Purpose

The main aim was to investigate whether hsCRP concentration modulates the predictive value of Lp(a) for coronary heart disease (CHD) events in the general population across Europe.

Methods

Data of 87,760 participants from 10 European prospective population-based cohorts, participating in the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE)-project, were used for the present analysis (79,958 subjects without and 7,189 individuals with established CHD at baseline (primary/secondary prevention cohorts, respectively)). All Lp(a) measurements were performed in the central BiomarCaRE laboratory. Fine and Gray competing risk-adjusted models stratified by study cohort were calculated to assess the association between Lp(a) levels and future CHD events stratified according to hsCRP levels (<1 mg/l, ≥1–<2 mg/l and ≥2 mg/l).

Results

During a median follow-up of 11.3 years, 4,928 events occurred in the CHD-free subpopulation and 1,772 events occurred in the CHD subpopulation. In the primary prevention cohort, increased Lp(a) was significantly associated with future CHD events irrespective of hsCRP: Hazard ratios (HRs) for future CHD events (top vs bottom quintile (Q) of Lp(a) distribution) were 1.46 (95% CI: 1.21–1.78; p<0.001) in those having a hsCRP concentration <1 mg/l; 1.32 (95% CI: 1.09–1.61; p=0.0052) for a hsCRP group of ≥1-<2 mg/l and 1.40 (95% CI: 1.22–1.61; p<0.001) in subjects with a hsCRP concentration ≥2 mg/l, after multivariable adjustment for traditional CV risk factors including LDL-Ccorr and lipid-lowering medication. In contrast, in the secondary prevention, we found no association between increased Lp(a) levels and CHD events in individuals with a very low inflammatory burden (HR for hsCRP <1 mg/l 0.92 (95% CI 0.63–1.34), p=0.66, Q5 vs Q1)), whereas the association was significant among subjects with a hsCRP concentration ≥1 mg/l (HRs: 1.43 (95% CI: 1.01–2.03; p=0.045) for hsCRP group ≥1-<2 mg/l and 1.35 (95% CI: 1.07–1.71; p=0.013) for hsCRP group ≥2 mg/l (both for Q5 vs Q1)).

Conclusion

In a primary prevention setting, Lp(a) was associated with incident CHD irrespective of the inflammatory burden. In contrast, among subjects with known CHD, the association of Lp(a) and future CHD events was only present in those with hsCRP levels >1 mg/l. These findings might guide target population selection for upcoming Lp(a)-targeting compounds.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): This work was supported by the 7th Framework Programme Collaborative Project (grant agreement no. HEALTH-F2-2011-278913). The MORGAM Project has received funding from EU projects MORGAM (Biomed, BMH4-CT98-3183), GenomEUtwin (Fifth Framework Programme FP5, QLG2-CT-2002-01254), ENGAGE (FP7, HEALTH-F4-2007-201413), CHANCES (FP7, HEALTH-F3-2010-242244), BiomarCaRE (FP7, HEALTH-F2-2011-278913), euCanSHare (Horizon 2020, No. 825903) and AFFECT-EU (Horizon 2020, No. 847770); and Medical Research Council, London (G0601463, No. 80983: Biomarkers in the MORGAM Populations).

Exploring circulating biomarkers for risk prediction of incident atrial fibrillation – insights from the BiomarCaRE project

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) remains a major health issue in Europe and worldwide. Risk prediction is crucial to identify at-risk individuals and prevent subsequent complications of AF such as stroke and heart failure. Biomarker-enriched, personalized risk prediction offers great potential for population-wide prevention beyond traditional cardiovascular risk factors.

Purpose

We aimed to identify robust predictors for incident AF using classical regressions and machine learning (ML) techniques within a broad spectrum of candidate variables.

Methods

Three European community cohorts from the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) consortium were included to explore the predictive utility of 14 biomarkers mirroring distinct pathophysiological pathways of AF including lipids, inflammation (C-reactive protein [CRP]), renal, and myocardium-specific markers (N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP], high-sensitivity troponin I [hsTnI]) within a population-based sample of 42,280 individuals free of AF at baseline. Investigated biomarkers were examined in relation to incident AF using Cox regressions adjusted for multiple cardiovascular risk factors, and additionally by C-indices and net reclassification improvement (NRI) when compared to a reference model incorporating clinical variables. Their predictive utility for incident AF was further analyzed using different ML methods, including Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and Random Survival Forest (RSF).

Results

Of 42,280 individuals (21,843 women [51.7%]; median [interquartile range, IQR] age, 52.2 [42.6, 62.0] years), 1496 (3.5%) developed AF during a median follow-up time of 5.7 years. In multivariable-adjusted Cox regression analysis, NT-proBNP was the strongest circulating predictor of incident AF (hazard ratio [HR] per standard deviation [SD] 1.93, 95% CI 1.82–2.04; P<0.001). Further, hsTnI (HR per SD 1.18, 95% CI 1.13–1.22; P<0.001), cystatin C (HR per SD 1.16, 95% CI 1.10–1.23; P<0.001) and CRP (HR per SD 1.08, 95% CI 1.02–1.14, P=0.012) correlated positively with new-onset AF. NT-proBNP enhanced model discrimination (ΔC-index 0.037, 95% CI 0.029–0.044) markedly and yielded the best reclassification improvement (NRI 0.237, 95% CI 0.187–0.287) when compared to the clinical model. Neither the addition of hsTnI to NT-proBNP, nor a model comprising all investigated biomarkers further increased discrimination or reclassification substantially. In different ML models, NT-proBNP and age were the strongest predictors of incident AF.

Conclusions

Using a dual approach with both classical regressions and modern ML methods, NT-proBNP consistently remained the strongest blood-based predictor of incident AF with relevant discriminative ability and reclassification yield beyond classical cardiovascular risk factors. The clinical benefit of these findings for AF risk prediction needs to be tested prospectively.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – EU funding. Main funding source(s): BiomarCaRE (FP7, HEALTH-F2-2011-278913)European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement number 847770, AFFECT-EU)

Incremental utility of circulating biomarkers for cardiovascular risk prediction beyond the updated SCORE2 model

Background

Accurate risk prediction for future cardiovascular disease (CVD) is crucial for timely initiation of preventive measures in high-risk individuals. Most risk scores, such as the recently updated SCORE2 risk-prediction model supported by the European Society of Cardiology, consider only traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Whether the addition of circulating biomarkers to the existing SCORE2 model may improve risk prediction is unclear.

Purpose

We aimed to evaluate the incremental utility of four widely available circulating biomarkers to improve the prediction of 10-year CVD-risk beyond SCORE2.

Methods

Data from ten prospective population-based cohorts from seven countries across Europe were collected if information on SCORE2-variables and at least one of the following four investigational biomarkers was available: high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI), NT-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Primary outcome was incidence of CVD at 10 years, defined as the composite of cardiovascular mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction and non-fatal stroke. We used Fine and Gray models adjusted for competing-risk and SCORE2-variables as well as penalized cubic splines to assess and visualize the association of individual biomarkers with incident CVD. In a multimarker approach, we performed backward selection to identify biomarkers providing independent predictive value beyond SCORE2-components. C-indices and category-free net reclassification index (cfNRI) were used to compare the performance of the original SCORE2 model to the biomarker-extended model.

Results

In 78'507 individuals, median age was 50 years and 50.3% were females. NT-proBNP, hs-CRP and hs-cTnI but not eGFR showed strong associations with 10-year CVD-risk when adjusted for SCORE2 and provided incremental predictive value when individually added to SCORE2 (Figure 1). In a multimarker approach, all three biomarkers remained independently associated with CVD beyond SCORE2 with strongest association of NT-proBNP, followed by hs-CRP and hs-cTnI (Table 1). The simultaneous addition of these three biomarkers to the SCORE2 model significantly increased discrimination (C-index; 0.782 [95% CI, 0.757, 0.806] versus 0.793 [95% CI, 0.768, 0.817], Delta 0.011 [95% CI, 0.005, 0.016]) and risk reclassification, driven by an improvement in non-events (cfNRIoverall 0.17 [95% CI, 0.12, 0.22], cfNRIevents 0.06 [95% CI, 0.02, 0.11], cfNRInon-events 0.11 [95% CI, 0.10, 0.11]).

Conclusion

NT-proBNP, hs-CRP and hs-cTnI but not eGFR provide incremental predictive value when added to the SCORE2 risk-prediction model and may help to further improve personalized CVD-risk prediction.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – EU funding. Main funding source(s): European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013)

Risk factors, subsequent disease onset and prognostic impact of myocardial infarction and atrial fibrillation

Background

Myocardial infarction (MI) is a known risk factor for incident atrial fibrillation (AF), while AF frequently complicates acute MI. Although both diseases share common cardiovascular risk factors, the direction and strength of the association of the risk factors with disease onset, subsequent disease incidence and mortality are not completely understood.

Purpose

Our goal was to define the temporal relationship of MI and AF and the association of cardiovascular risk factors with disease incidence in order to determine whether common clinical risk factors show different associations with incident MI or AF. We further aimed to investigate predictors of subsequent disease onset and the impact of subsequent disease diagnosis on mortality.

Methods

In pooled multivariable Cox regression analyses we examined temporal relations of disease onset and identified predictors of MI, AF and subsequent all-cause mortality in 108,363 individuals (median age 46.0 years, 48.2% men) free of MI and AF at baseline from six European population-based cohorts.

Results

Over a maximum follow-up of 10.0 years 3558 (3.3%) individuals were diagnosed exclusively with MI, 1922 (1.8%) with AF but no MI, and 491 (0.5%) individuals developed both MI and AF. Association of male sex, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive treatment and diabetes mellitus appeared to be stronger with incident MI than with AF, whereas increasing age and body mass index showed a higher risk for incident AF. Total cholesterol and daily smoking were significantly related to incident MI but not AF. The combined population attributable fraction of the cardiovascular risk factors was over 70% for incident MI, whereas it was only about one quarter for incident AF. Subsequent MI after incident AF (hazard ratio1.68, 95% CI 1.03–2.74) and subsequent AF after MI (hazard ratio 1.75, 95% CI 1.31–2.34) both significantly increased overall mortality risk.

Conclusions

Subsequent diagnosis of MI and AF was associated with a significant increase in mortality, irrespective of the first event. We found different associations of common cardiovascular risk factors with incident MI and AF indicating distinct pathophysiological pathways in disease development.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – EU funding. Main funding source(s): European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No 847770, AFFECT-EU) European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No 648131)

Association of glycated haemoglobin A1c levels with cardiovascular outcomes in the general population: results from the BiomarCaRE consortium

Background

Glycated haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) is used to monitor the quality of diabetes treatment; however, its role in predicting cardiovascular outcomes in the general population remains uncertain.

Purpose

The additional use of glycated haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) as a biomarker might highlight subjects of the general population with an increased risk for cardiovascular outcomes with cardiovascular disease, cardiovascular mortality or overall-mortality.

Methods

Data from six prospective population-based cohort studies across Europe comprising 36,180 participants were analysed. HbA1c was evaluated in conjunction with classical cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) for association with cardiovascular mortality, cardiovascular diseases (CVD), and overall mortality in the study population, in non-diabetic (N=32,477), and diabetic participants (N=3,703).

Results

Kaplan-Meier curves showed higher event rates with increasing continuous log-transformed HbA1c levels. Cox regression analysis revealed significant associations between HbA1c (in mmol/mol) log-transformed divided by interquartile range and the examined outcomes, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.12 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04–1.20, p=0.0019) for cardiovascular mortality, 1.10 (95% CI: 1.04–1.16, p<0.001) for CVD, and 1.09 (95% CI: 1.05–1.14, p<0.001) for overall mortality per one unit increase.

An increased risk of CVD was observed in subjects without diabetes with increased HbA1c levels (HR 1.09; 95% CI: 1.01–1.16, p=0.021). An HbA1c cut-off value of 39.89 mmol/mol (5.8%), 36.62 mmol/mol (5.5%), and 38.80 mmol/mol (5.7%) for cardiovascular mortality, CVD, and overall mortality, respectively, was determined for selecting individuals at an increased risk.

Conclusion

HbA1c was demonstrated to be an independent prognostic biomarker for all investigated outcomes in the general European population. An approximately linear relationship was observed between an increase of HbA1c levels and the outcomes. Elevated HbA1c levels were also associated with the outcomes in participants without diabetes (i.e. HbA1c levels <6.5% (<48mmol/mol) which underlines the importance of HbA1c levels in the overall population.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – EU funding. Main funding source(s): European Union Seventh Framework ProgrammeEuropean Union FP 7 project CHANCES Kaplan-Meier curves for the outcomesPenalised cubic splines HbA1c/time event

Risk prediction of atrial fibrillation and its complications in the community using high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I: results from the BiomarCaRE Consortium

Aims

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is becoming increasingly common and is associated with serious complications. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) do not explain all AF cases. Blood-based biomarkers reflecting cardiac injury may help close this gap. High-sensitivity troponin I (hsTnI) has emerged as a potential predictor.

Methods

We investigated the predictive ability of hsTnI for incident AF in 29,227 participants (median age 52.6 years, 51.2% men) across four different European community cohorts of the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE) consortium in comparison to CVRF and established biomarkers (high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP), N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP)).

Results

During a median follow-up of 13.8 (lower and upper quartiles 4.5, 21.3) years, 1,509 (5.2%) participants developed AF. Those in the highest fourth of hsTnI values at baseline (≥5.1 ng/L) had a 2.71-fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.31, 3.17; P<0.01) risk for developing AF compared to those in the lowest fourth (≤2.1 ng/L). In multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models no statistically significant association was seen between hsTnI and AF, whereas NT-proBNP (hazard ratio (HR) per two-fold increase in NT-proBNP 1.64; 95% CI 1.56, 1.72; P<0.001) as well as hsCRP (HR ratio per two-fold increase in hsCRP 1.05; 95% CI 1.01, 1.10; P=0.01) were statistically significantly related to incident AF. Inclusion of hsTnI did not improve model discrimination over CVRFs (C-index CVRF 0.7914 vs. C-index CVRF, hsTnI 0.7927; 95% CI −0.0004, 0.0031; P=0.130). Higher hsTnI concentrations were associated with AF complications such as stroke (HR 1.25; 95% CI 1.03, 1.51; P=0.02), heart failure (HR 1.27; 95% CI 1.12, 1.44; P<0.001) and cardiovascular events (HR 1.24; 95% CI 1.08, 1.42; P<0.001) as well as overall mortality (HR 1.15; 95% CI 1.05, 1.25; P<0.001) in those who were diagnosed with AF.

Conclusion

hsTnI as a biomarker of myocardial injury does not improve prediction of AF incidence beyond classical CVRFs. However, it is associated with AF complications and mortality after AF onset probably reflecting underlying subclinical cardiovascular impairment.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – EU funding. Main funding source(s): European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013

Cardiac troponin I and incident stroke in European cohorts – insights from the BiomarCaRE project

Background

Stroke is a common cause of death and a leading cause of disability and morbidity. Stroke risk assessment remains a challenge but circulating biomarkers may improve risk prediction. Controversial evidence is available on the predictive ability of troponin concentrations and the risk of stroke in the community. Furthermore, reports on the predictive value of troponin concentrations for different stroke subtypes (ischemic and hemorrhagic) are scarce.

Methods

High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hsTnI) concentrations were assessed in 82,881 individuals (median age 50.7 years, 49.7% men) free of stroke or myocardial infarction at baseline from nine prospective European community cohorts. Multiple imputations were used to handle missing data. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to determine relative risks, followed by measures of discrimination and reclassification using 10-fold cross-validation to control for over-optimism. Follow-up was based upon linkage with national hospitalization registries and causes of death registries.

Results

Over a median follow-up of 12.7 years, 3,033 individuals were diagnosed with incident non-fatal or fatal stroke (N=1,654 ischemic strokes, N=612 hemorrhagic strokes, N=767 indeterminate strokes). In multivariable regression models hsTnI concentrations were associated with overall stroke (hazard ratio (HR) per one standard deviation increase 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10–1.21), ischemic stroke (HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.09–1.21) and hemorrhagic stroke (HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.01–1.21). Adding hsTnI concentrations to classical cardiovascular risk factors (C-indices 0.808, 0.840 and 0.735 for overall, ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, respectively) increased the C-index significantly, but modestly. In individuals with an intermediate ten-year risk (5–20%) the net reclassification improvement for overall stroke was 0.039 (p=0.010).

Conclusions

Elevated hsTnI concentrations are associated with an increased risk of incident stroke in the community, irrespective of stroke subtype. Adding hsTnI concentrations to classical risk factors only modestly improved estimation of 10-year risk of stroke in the overall cohort, but might be of some value in individuals at an intermediate risk.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – EU funding. Main funding source(s): The BiomarCaRE Project is funded by the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement no.HEALTH-F2-2011-278913. This project has received further funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No 648131).

Atrial fibrillation risk factor burden and disease onset across age decades

Background

Although a number of risk factors have been associated with the progression of atrial fibrillation (AF), there is limited knowledge of their relevance for AF in relation to age.

Purpose

We examined whether the association between modifiable risk factors and AF differed between age decades.

Methods

Data were derived from five European cohorts from Denmark, Finland, Italy, Sweden, and Norway. In total, 66 951 individuals (49.1% men) aged ≥40 years (mean baseline age 53.5 years) and without prevalent AF were followed for incident AF, with the follow-up truncated at 10 years. Data on risk factors (body mass index [BMI], hypertension [systolic blood pressure ≥140 mmHg and/or use of antihypertensive medication], diabetes mellitus, myocardial infarction [MI] event before baseline examinations, daily smoking, and alcohol consumption) were available from the baseline examinations. Stratification into age decades was based on age at baseline examination. Furthermore, the participants were followed for events of stroke or mortality after AF diagnosis. Mortality, stroke, and AF outcomes were derived from national registers and hospital discharge registers. All analyses were adjusted for AF risk factors.

Results

The incidence of AF increased from 0.9 per 1000 person-years at the age of 40 to <50, to 17.7 at the age of ≥70 years. Multivariable-adjusted Cox models showed that BMI, hypertension, alcohol consumption, and history of MI were associated with increased risk of AF across age decades (p<0.05). Of these, the risk of AF associated with BMI and an MI event before baseline examinations differed across age decades. For each 5 units increase in BMI, risk of AF increased with 40% (95% confidence interval 17–68%) at the age of 40 to <50, falling to 17% (6–29%) at the age of ≥70 years (p=0.08 for difference between age decades 40 to <50 and ≥70). Participants with a history of MI showed decreased risk of AF with ageing, from a hazard ratio (HR) of 5.53 (2.85–10.73) in the 40 to <50 age group to a HR of 1.41 (1.11–1.79) at the age of ≥70 (p<0.001). Daily smoking and prevalent diabetes mellitus were in general not associated with AF. The multivariable-adjusted associations between new-onset AF and the succeeding risk of stroke and mortality increased with age, showing a 1.6 to 2.6-fold increase in risk of death at ages ≥60 years and two-fold increased risk of stroke in participants aged ≥70 years (p≤0.001).

Conclusion

The relative importance of modifiable risk factors on incident AF do not vary across age decades, with a few exceptions; BMI and a history of MI were stronger risk factors for AF at younger ages. Thus, preventive measures should target risk factors rigorously, in particular obesity. New-onset AF was associated with increased risk of stroke and mortality only at older ages, emphasizing the importance of adequate patient management in the older and oldest old.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: None

Simple cardiovascular risk stratification using anthropometric measures instead of serum cholesterol. The MORGAM Prospective Cohort Project

Background

Body composition predicts cardiovascular outcomes, but it is uncertain whether anthropometric measures can replace the more expensive serum total cholesterol for cardiovascular risk stratification in low resource settings.

Purpose

The purpose of the study was to compare the additive prognostic ability of serum total cholesterol with that of body mass index (BMI), waist/hip ratio (WHR), and estimated fat mass (EFM, calculated using a validated prediction equation), individually and combined.

Methods

We used data from the MORGAM (MONICA, Risk, Genetics, Archiving, and Monograph) Prospective Cohort Project, an international pooling of cardiovascular cohorts, to determine the relationship between anthropometric measures, serum cholesterol, and cardiovascular events, using multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis. We further investigated the ability of these measures to enhance prognostication beyond a simpler prediction model, consisting of age, sex, smoking status, systolic blood pressures, and country, using comparison of area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUCROC) derived from binary logistic regression models. The primary endpoint was major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), defined as a composite of death from coronary heart disease, myocardial infarction, or stroke.

Results

The study population consisted of 52,188 apparently healthy subjects (56.3% men) aged 47±12 years ranging from 20 to 84, derived from 37 European cohorts, with baseline between 1982–2002 all followed for 10 years during which MACE occurred in 2465 (4.7%) subjects. All anthropometric measures (BMI: hazard ratio (HR) 1.04 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03–1.05] per kg/m2; WHR: HR 7.5 [4.0–14.0] per unit; EFM: HR 1.02 [1.01–1.02] per kg) as well as serum total cholesterol (HR 1.20 [1.16–1.24] per mmol/l) were significantly associated with MACE (P<0.001 for all), independently of age, sex, smoking status, systolic blood pressures, and country. The addition of serum cholesterol significantly improved the predictive ability of the simple model (AUCROC 0.818 vs. 0.814, P<0.001), as did the combination of WHR, BMI, and EFM (AUCROC 0.817 vs. 0.814, P=0.004). When assessed individually, BMI (AUCROC 0.816 vs. 0.814, P=0.004) and WHR (AUCROC 0.815 vs. 0.814, P=0.02) improved model performance, while EFM narrowly missed significance (AUCROC 0.815 vs. 0.814, P=0.06). There was no significant difference in the predictive ability of a model including serum cholesterol versus that including all three anthropometric measures (AUCROC 0.818 vs. 0.817, P=0.13). The figure shows the pertinent areas under the ROC curve in predicting MACE.

Conclusion

In this large population-based cohort study, the addition of a combination of anthropometric measures, i.e. BMI, WHR, and EFM, raised the predictive ability of a simple prognostic model comparable to that obtained by the addition of serum total cholesterol.

Figure 1

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: None

Assessment of causality of natriuretic peptides and atrial fibrillation and heart failure – a Mendelian randomization study in the FINRISK cohort

Background

Natriuretic peptides are extensively studied biomarkers for atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF). Their role in the pathogenesis of both diseases is not entirely understood and in previous studies several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at the NPPA-NPPB locus associated with natriuretic peptides have been identified.

Purpose

We investigated whether a causal relationship exists between natriuretic peptides and AF as well as HF using a Mendelian randomization approach.

Methods

N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) (N=6669), B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) (N=6674) and mid-regional pro atrial natriuretic peptide (MR-proANP) (N=6813) were measured in the FINRISK 1997 cohort. Thirty common SNPs related to NT-proBNP, BNP and MR-proANP were selected from prior studies. We performed six Mendelian randomizations for all three natriuretic peptide biomarkers and for both outcomes, AF and HF separately. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) based on multiple SNPs were used as the genetic instrumental variable in Mendelian randomizations.

Results

PRS were significantly associated with the three natriuretic peptides. PRS were not significantly associated with incident AF nor HF. Most cardiovascular risk factors showed significant confounding percentages, but no association with PRS. A causal relation, other than a weak one, is unlikely.

Conclusion

In our Mendelian randomization approach, based on common genetic variation at the NPPA-NPPB locus, associations of the common polymorphisms with natriuretic peptides and the protein biomarkers themselves with incident disease could be confirmed. A strong causal relationship between natriuretic peptides and incidence of AF as well as HF was ruled out. Therapeutic approaches targeting natriuretic peptides will therefore very likely work through indirect mechanisms.

Comparison of hazard ratios

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – EU funding. Main funding source(s): European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, German Ministry of Research and Education

Differential susceptibility to allostatic load and educational inequalities in coronary heart disease

Background

Differential exposure to lifestyle factors may mediate the association between education and cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, differential susceptibility (the effect of exposure to the same “dose” of risk factors differs across groups) may also elevate CVD risk but the causal pathways remain unclear. Allostatic Load (AL) is a marker of cumulative biological burden resulting from mal-adaptation to chronic stressors. We aimed to examine the role of differential exposure and susceptibility to AL and other factors in coronary heart disease (CHD) educational gradients in Europe.

Methods

51,328 35-74-year-old participants originally free of CVD from 21 European cohorts in the BiomarCaRE consortium were identified and followed for a median of 10 years to their first CHD event. We defined an AL score as the sum of z-scores of 8 markers from the cardiovascular, metabolic, and inflammatory systems. To investigate the mediating role of AL (and smoking, alcohol and BMI) on educational differences in CHD incidence we applied marginal structural models and three-way decomposition on gender-specific additive hazards models.

Results

AL was a significant mediator of the association between educational status and CHD. The highest proportion mediated was observed in women, with 28% (95%CI 20% to 44%) attributable to differential exposure and 8% (95%CI 0% to 16%) to differential susceptibility. In men, AL mediated 16% of the increased CHD risk in the less educated, with 2% (95%CI 0%-6%) attributable to differential susceptibility. The effects of smoking, alcohol and BMI were relatively small for men and women, with a limited role of differential susceptibility.

Conclusions

While we found evidence of differential susceptibility to AL on CHD, effects were modest and the mediating effect of AL (and other lifestyle factors) was predominately via differential exposure. Controlling disproportionate exposure to AL may help reduce CHD morbidity among those with lower education.

Key messages

Educational inequalities in coronary heart disease in Europe were predominantly driven by differential exposure rather than susceptibility to allostatic load and other lifestyle factors. Controlling disproportionate exposure to AL may help reduce coronary heart disease morbidity among those with lower education.

P6226Association of functional iron deficiency with incident cardiovascular diseases and mortality in the general population

Background

Functional iron deficiency (FID) has been established as a risk factor in patients with cardiovascular diseases (CVD). As opposed to absolute iron deficiency, it reflects stored iron as well as utilized iron and allows for a more accurate evaluation of individual iron status. However, evidence is scant on the relevance of FID to the incidence of CVD in the general population.

Aim

This study aimed to evaluate the association of FID with incident cardiovascular diseases and mortality endpoints in a large population-based cohort.

Methods

FID was defined as either ferritin below 100 μg/L or ferritin between 100 and 299 μg/L and transferrin saturation below 20%. Only individuals free of CVD at baseline from three population-based European cohorts were included. Multivariable-adjusted sex- and cohort-stratified Cox regression analyses were performed to evaluate the association of functional iron deficiency with incident cardiovascular diseases (coronary heart disease, cerebral infarction, heart failure and atrial fibrillation) as well as with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Adjustments were performed for sex (as strata), age (as time scale), smoking, total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, body mass index and high-sensitive C-reactive protein.

Results

In total, N=12146 individuals were included in the analysis with a median age of 59.0 years (25thpercentile 45.0, 75thpercentile 68.0), and 45.2% men. Incidence of FID was 64.3%. Median follow-up times were 12.3 to 21.8 years, with an all-cause mortality rate of 18.2% and a cardiovascular mortality rate of 6.2%. Incident coronary heart disease, cerebral infarction, heart failure and atrial fibrillation were observed in 8.7%, 6.5%, 5.9% and 11.7%, respectively.

FID was significantly associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio (HR) 1.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01–1.24, p=0.034), cardiovascular death (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.03–1.54, p=0.027) and incident coronary heart disease (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.06–1.43, p<0.01). There was no significant association with the other tested endpoints.

Conclusion

In our analysis of population-based cohorts, FID showed a significant positive association with all-cause as well as cardiovascular mortality and incident coronary heart disease. Further research is needed to validate the role of FID as a cardiovascular risk factor in the general population and to evaluate the impact of iron supplementation on gender and outcome.

P3820Differential associations of common risk factors and biomarkers with atrial fibrillation and heart failure and their ability to predict sequential disease onset and mortality

Background

Although atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) have a similar cardiovascular risk profile, the differential associations of the risk factors with both disease are incompletely understood.

Aim

The aim of this study was to understand whether common clinical risk factors and cardiovascular biomarkers show different associations with incident AF and HF, and to investigate predictors of sequential disease onset and mortality.

Methods

In 58693 individuals free of AF and HF from European population-based cohorts, pooled multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to find predictors for AF, HF and all-cause mortality. P-values for differences between Hazard Ratios (HR) of risk factors for AF and HF were estimated using bootstrapping with 5,000 replications. When AF and/or HF were used in Cox regressions as explanatory variables, they were included as time-dependent variables.

Results

Median age was 50.5 years, 49.3% were men. Median follow-up time was 13.8 years with an all-cause mortality rate of 15.7%. Incident AF and HF was present in 5.0% and 5.4% of the participants, with 1.8% showing a sequential disease onset.

In multivariable-adjusted models we observed stronger associations of body mass index (HR of 1.32 (95% CI 1.25–1.39) vs. 1.42 (95% CI 1.36–1.49), p=0.02), smoking (HR of 1.21 (95% CI 1.08–1.33) vs. 2.11 (95% CI 1.90–2.32), p<0.01) and antihypertensive medication (HR of 1.21 (95% CI 1.10–1.35) vs. 1.43 (95% CI 1.27–1.59), p<0.01) with incident HF than with incident AF.

Total serum cholesterol (HR of 1.10 (95% CI 1.06–1.15), prevalent diabetes (HR of 3.46 (95% CI 2.60–4.32), high-sensitive C-reactive protein (HR of 1.12 (95% CI 1.08–1.16)) and glomerular filtration rate (HR of 0.92 (95% CI 0.85–1.00) were significantly related to incident HF but not AF.

Age (HR of 1.54 (95% CI 1.47–1.61) vs. 1.54 (95% CI 1.47–1.62), p=0.95), male sex (HR of 2.87 (95% CI 2.42–3.33), p=0.13), prevalent myocardial infarction (HR of 1.65 (95% CI 1.26–2.04) vs. 1.75 (95% CI 1.36–2.11), p=0.73) and NT-proBNP (HR of 1.59 (95% CI 1.50–1.68) vs. 1.60 (95% CI 1.51–1.69), p=0.86) showed comparable associations with both diseases.

Age, male sex, body mass index, total serum cholesterol, prevalent diabetes and NT-proBNP were all predictors of sequential disease onset after multivariable adjustment.

In models including cardiovascular risk factors and NT-proBNP, the time-varying covariates incident AF and HF showed a strong association with all-cause mortality, with HR of 2.2 (95% CI 1.9–2.5) and 10.7 (95% CI 9.1–12.6), respectively. Sequential disease onset further increased the hazard ratio to 15.1 (95% CI 11.6–19.5).

Conclusion

In our pooled analysis of population-based cohorts, new-onset AF and HF showed different associations with common cardiovascular risk factors and biomarkers. Although both diseases significantly increased mortality, the highest risk was observed in individuals with sequential disease onset.

P1642High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I and NT-proBNP and their relationship to heart failure in the European BiomarCaRE population

Aims

Heart failure (HF) is an increasingly important contributor to the overall burden of cardiovascular disease in the population. We aimed to determine the distribution of the cardiac biomarkers high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) and N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentrations across the European population to characterize the association with incident HF.

Methods and results

Based on the Biomarkers for Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Europe (BiomarCaRE)-project, we analysed data of 48,455 individuals from four prospective population-based cohort studies (DanMONICA, FINRISK, Moli-Sani, Northern Sweden MONICA study) across Europe with a maximum follow-up of 27 years. The median age of the participants was 50.7 years (25th percentile: 40.0 years, 75th percentile: 61.7 years) and 49.1% (25,146) were men. Considered endpoints were incident HF and all-cause mortality. The median follow-up time for occurrence of HF was 6.61 (6.55; 6.66) years. We found that cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs), especially diabetes with HR of 2.11 (95% CI 1.8, 2.5) and smoking status with HR of 1.79 (95% CI 1.59, 2.1) (Figure 1) were associated with incident HF. Furthermore, beyond the CVRFs, elevated hs-cTnI and NT-proBNP concentrations contributed to risk of HF in the general population with HR of 1.49 (95% CI 1.21, 1.9) and HR of 2.37 (95% CI 1.97, 3.0) respectively. As a cut-off value to select individuals, who would benefit most from preventive strategies, a hs-cTnI concentration of 2.8 ng/L was calculated using the optimal cut-off methodology by Contal and O'Quigley in CSDA 1999.

Hazard ratio for incident HF

Conclusion

In our large population-based cohort, hs-cTnI and NT-proBNP were independently associated with incident HF. Use of biomarkers for HF screening thus may help to select those individuals in the general population who would benefit most from preventive strategies. Based on the cut-off value future studies are needed to evaluate therapeutic options.

P3398Cystatin C based eGFR estimation compared to crea-based estimation equation for assessing risk of cardiovascular and total mortality in population-based studies and patients with manifest CVD

Introduction

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) represents a global public health problem and affects a large proportion of the adult population worldwide. Early detection, adequate risk stratification and specific treatment can prevent or delay the adverse effects of CKD.

Purpose

To assess cardiovascular risk and total mortality of subjects with CKD using cystatin C based and Crea-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) equations (CKDEpi) in the general population, in diseased cohorts, and in specific subgroups.

Methods

The present study has been conducted within the BiomarCaRE project, with harmonized data from 21 population-based cohorts from 6 European countries and 3 cardiovascular disease (CVD) cohorts from Germany. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess hazard ratios (HRs) for the various CKD definitions with adverse outcomes and mortality after adjustment for age, sex, cohort, smoking status, body mass index, history of diabetes, history of hypertension, and total cholesterol.

Results

21 population-based cohorts (n=76,954, median age 51 years, 52.2% men, 4.4% diabetic) and 3 diseased cohorts (n=4,982, median age 63 years, 75.6% men, 18.7% diabetic) with an average follow-up between 2.8 and 23.5 years and between 0.5 and 9.4 years, respectively, were included in the analysis. Prevalence of CKD-stage 3–5 by CKD-EPIcrea and CKD-EPIcys eGFR respectively, was 3.4% and 7.3% in the population-based cohorts and 13.9% and 14.4% in the diseased cohorts. In the population-based cohorts the incidence (per 1000 person years) of a non-fatal or fatal CVD event and total mortality respectively, was 10.0 and 11.8, whereas it was 21.2 and 17.8 in the diseased cohorts. In the population-based cohorts the HR for a CVD-event was 1.32 (95% CI 1.21–1.44) for the population with CKD-EPIcrea stage 3–5 and it was 1.47 (95% CI 1.35–1.60) based on CKD-EPIcys after adjustment for covariates. The HR for total mortality for those with CKD-EPIcrea stage 3–5 was 1.31 (1.21–1.41) and for CKD-EPIcys it was 1.86 (95% CI 1.73–2.00). Discrepancies between CKD-EPIcrea and CKD-EPIcys were even more striking across subgroups with and without diabetes or across specific age groups.

Conclusion

CKD is an important risk factor for subsequent CVD events and total mortality. However, point estimates of CKD-EPIcrea and CKD-EPIcys eGFR differ considerably between specific risk groups. Therefore, the clinical utility of both equations in different risk groups has to be considered and should be evaluated further.

Acknowledgement/Funding

7th framework programme collaborative project, grant agreement no. HEALTH-F2-2011-278913

Predictive value of low testosterone concentrations regarding coronary heart disease and mortality in men and women - evidence from the FINRISK97 study

INTRODUCTION

The relevance of low testosterone concentrations for incident coronary heart disease (CHD) and mortality has been discussed in various studies. Here, we evaluate the predictive value of low baseline testosterone levels in a large population-based cohort.

METHODS

We measured the serum levels of testosterone in 7671 subjects (3710 male, 3961 female) of the population-based FINRISK97 study.

RESULTS

The median follow-up (FU) was 13.8 years. During the FU, a total of 779 deaths from any cause, and 395 incident CHD events were recorded. The age-adjusted baseline testosterone levels were similar in subjects suffering incident events during FU and those without incident events during FU (men: 15.80 vs. 17.01 nmol L-1 ; P = 0.69, women: 1.14 vs. 1.15 nmol L-1 ; P = 0.92). Weak correlations of testosterone levels were found with smoking (R = 0.09; P < 0.001), HDL cholesterol levels (R = 0.22, P < 0.001), systolic blood pressure (R = -0.05; P = 0.011), BMI (R = -0.23; P < 0.001) and waist-hip-ratio (R = -0.21; P < 0.001) in men, and with eGFR (R = -0.05; P = 0.009) in women. Kaplan-Meier analyses did not reveal a positive association of testosterone levels with incident CHD or mortality. Accordingly, also in Cox regression analyses, testosterone levels were not predictive for incident CHD or mortality - neither in men (HR 1.02 [95%CI: 0.70-1.51]; P = 0.79 for lowest versus highest quarter regarding CHD and HR 1.06 [95%CI: 0.80-1.39]; P = 0.67 regarding mortality), nor in women (HR 1.13 [95%CI: 0.69-1.85]; P = 0.56 for lowest versus highest quarter regarding CHD and HR 0.99 [95%CI: 0.71-1.39]; P = 0.80 regarding mortality).

CONCLUSIONS

Low levels of testosterone are not predictive regarding future CHD or mortality - neither in men, nor in women.

Impact of prediagnostic smoking and smoking cessation on colorectal cancer prognosis: a meta-analysis of individual patient data from cohorts within the CHANCES consortium

Background

Smoking has been associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality in previous studies and might also be associated with prognosis after CRC diagnosis. However, current evidence on smoking in association with CRC prognosis is limited.

Patients and methods

For this individual patient data meta-analysis, sociodemographic and smoking behavior information of 12 414 incident CRC patients (median age at diagnosis: 64.3 years), recruited within 14 prospective cohort studies among previously cancer-free adults, was collected at baseline and harmonized across studies. Vital status and causes of death were collected for a mean follow-up time of 5.1 years following cancer diagnosis. Associations of smoking behavior with overall and CRC-specific survival were evaluated using Cox regression and standard meta-analysis methodology.

Results

A total of 5229 participants died, 3194 from CRC. Cox regression revealed significant associations between former [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.12; 95 % confidence interval (CI) = 1.04-1.20] and current smoking (HR = 1.29; 95% CI = 1.04-1.60) and poorer overall survival compared with never smoking. Compared with current smoking, smoking cessation was associated with improved overall (HR<10 years = 0.78; 95% CI = 0.69-0.88; HR≥10 years = 0.78; 95% CI = 0.63-0.97) and CRC-specific survival (HR≥10 years = 0.76; 95% CI = 0.67-0.85).

Conclusion

In this large meta-analysis including primary data of incident CRC patients from 14 prospective cohort studies on the association between smoking and CRC prognosis, former and current smoking were associated with poorer CRC prognosis compared with never smoking. Smoking cessation was associated with improved survival when compared with current smokers. Future studies should further quantify the benefits of nonsmoking, both for cancer prevention and for improving survival among CRC patients, in particular also in terms of treatment response.

HbA1c levels in non-diabetic older adults - No J-shaped associations with primary cardiovascular events, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality after adjustment for confounders in a meta-analysis of individual participant data from six cohort studies

BACKGROUND

To determine the shape of the associations of HbA1c with mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in non-diabetic individuals and explore potential explanations.

METHODS

The associations of HbA1c with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality and primary cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction or stroke) were assessed in non-diabetic subjects ≥50 years from six population-based cohort studies from Europe and the USA and meta-analyzed. Very low, low, intermediate and increased HbA1c were defined as <5.0, 5.0 to <5.5, 5.5 to <6.0 and 6.0 to <6.5% (equals <31, 31 to <37, 37 to <42 and 42 to <48 mmol/mol), respectively, and low HbA1c was used as reference in Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

Overall, 6,769 of 28,681 study participants died during a mean follow-up of 10.7 years, of whom 2,648 died of cardiovascular disease. Furthermore, 2,493 experienced a primary cardiovascular event. A linear association with primary cardiovascular events was observed. Adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors explained about 50% of the excess risk and attenuated hazard ratios (95 confidence interval) for increased HbA1c to 1.14 (1.03-1.27), 1.17 (1.00-1.37) and 1.19 (1.04-1.37) for all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality and cardiovascular events, respectively. The six cohorts yielded inconsistent results for the association of very low HbA1c levels with the mortality outcomes and the pooled effect estimates were not statistically significant. In one cohort with a pronounced J-shaped association of HbA1c levels with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality (NHANES), the following confounders of the association of very low HbA1c levels with mortality outcomes were identified: race/ethnicity; alcohol consumption; BMI; as well as biomarkers of iron deficiency anemia and liver function. Associations for very low HbA1c levels lost statistical significance in this cohort after adjusting for these confounders.

CONCLUSIONS

A linear association of HbA1c levels with primary cardiovascular events was observed. For cardiovascular and all-cause mortality, the observed small effect sizes at both the lower and upper end of HbA1c distribution do not support the notion of a J-shaped association of HbA1c levels because a certain degree of residual confounding needs to be considered in the interpretation of the results.

The relation of body mass index and abdominal adiposity with dyslipidemia in 27 general populations of the WHO MONICA Project

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The association between adiposity measures and dyslipidemia has seldom been assessed in a multipopulational setting.

METHODS AND RESULTS

27 populations from Europe, Australia, New Zealand and Canada (WHO MONICA project) using health surveys conducted between 1990 and 1997 in adults aged 35-64 years (n = 40,480). Dyslipidemia was defined as the total/HDL cholesterol ratio >6 (men) and >5 (women). Overall prevalence of dyslipidemia was 25% in men and 23% in women. Logistic regression showed that dyslipidemia was strongly associated with body mass index (BMI) in men and with waist circumference (WC) in women, after adjusting for region, age and smoking. Among normal-weight men and women (BMI<25 kg/m(2)), an increase in the odds for being dyslipidemic was observed between lowest and highest WC quartiles (OR = 3.6, p < 0.001). Among obese men (BMI ≥ 30), the corresponding increase was smaller (OR = 1.2, p = 0.036). A similar weakening was observed among women. Classification tree analysis was performed to assign subjects into classes of risk for dyslipidemia. BMI thresholds (25.4 and 29.2 kg/m(2)) in men and WC thresholds (81.7 and 92.6 cm) in women came out at first stages. High WC (>84.8 cm) in normal-weight men, menopause in women and regular smoking further defined subgroups at increased risk.

CONCLUSION

standard categories of BMI and WC, or their combinations, do not lead to optimal risk stratification for dyslipidemia in middle-age adults. Sex-specific adaptations are necessary, in particular by taking into account abdominal obesity in normal-weight men, post-menopausal age in women and regular smoking in both sexes.

Modelling the Burden of Stroke in Finland until 2030

Background

It is well known that increasing age is the strongest risk factor of stroke. Therefore, it has been a common belief in many countries including Finland that the numbers of stroke patients will increase considerably during the next two decades because the population is rapidly ageing.

Methods

The FINMONICA and FINSTROKE registers operated in Finland in the Kuopio area and city of Turku from 1983 to 1997. The results showed that the incidence, mortality and case fatality of stroke declined significantly during that period. Importantly, it was established that the trends in incidence and mortality were also declining among the elderly (>74 years). We used these results to create a model for the entire country. The model was based on the trends present in these registers from Turku and Kuopio area and age-specific population projections up to the year 2030 that were obtained from Statistics Finland.

Results

In the year 2000, the number of new first stroke cases was estimated to be 11500. If the declining trend were to level off totally after the year 2000, the number of new strokes would be 20100 in the year 2030 due to the ageing of the population. It would be 12100 if the trend continued as favourable as during the years 1983–1997.

Conclusions

Ageing of the population will not inevitably increase the burden of stroke in Finland if the present declining trends are maintained, but the annual number of cases will almost double if the incidence remains at the level of the year 2000.

Large scale association analysis of novel genetic loci for coronary artery disease

BACKGROUND

Combined analysis of 2 genome-wide association studies in cases enriched for family history recently identified 7 loci (on 1p13.3, 1q41, 2q36.3, 6q25.1, 9p21, 10q11.21, and 15q22.33) that may affect risk of coronary artery disease (CAD). Apart from the 9p21 locus, the other loci await substantive replication. Furthermore, the effect of these loci on CAD risk in a broader range of individuals remains to be determined.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We undertook association analysis of single nucleotide polymorphisms at each locus with CAD risk in 11,550 cases and 11,205 controls from 9 European studies. The 9p21.3 locus showed unequivocal association (rs1333049, combined odds ratio [OR]=1.20, 95% CI [1.16 to 1.25], probability value=2.81 x 10(-21)). We also confirmed association signals at 1p13.3 (rs599839, OR=1.13 [1.08 to 1.19], P=1.44 x 10(-7)), 1q41 (rs3008621, OR=1.10 [1.04 to 1.17], P=1.02 x 10(-3)), and 10q11.21 (rs501120, OR=1.11 [1.05 to 1.18], P=4.34 x 10(-4)). The associations with 6q25.1 (rs6922269, P=0.020) and 2q36.3 (rs2943634, P=0.032) were borderline and not statistically significant after correction for multiple testing. The 15q22.33 locus did not replicate. The 10q11.21 locus showed a possible sex interaction (P=0.015), with a significant effect in women (OR=1.29 [1.15 to 1.45], P=1.86 x 10(-5)) but not men (OR=1.03 [0.96 to 1.11], P=0.387). There were no other strong interactions of any of the loci with other traditional risk factors. The loci at 9p21, 1p13.3, 2q36.3, and 10q11.21 acted independently and cumulatively increased CAD risk by 15% (12% to 18%), per additional risk allele.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings provide strong evidence for association between at least 4 genetic loci and CAD risk. Cumulatively, these novel loci have a significant impact on risk of CAD at least in European populations.

Long-term prognosis after coronary artery bypass surgery

OBJECTIVE

To analyse the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) events and total mortality among patients who had coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery during 1988-1992.

METHODS

A population-based myocardial infarction (MI) register included data on invasive cardiac procedures among residents of the study area. The subjects aged 35-64 years were followed-up for 12 years for non-fatal and fatal CHD events and all-cause mortality, excluding events within 30 days of the CABG operation. CABG was performed on 1158 men and 215 women.

RESULTS

The overall survival of men who underwent CABG was similar to the survival of the corresponding background population for about ten years but started to worsen after that. At twelve years of follow-up, 23% (n=266, 95% CI 234-298) of the men who had undergone the operation had died, while the expected proportion, based on mortality in the background population, was 20% (n=231, 95% CI 226-237). The CHD mortality of men who had undergone the operation was clearly higher than in the background population. Among women, the mortality after CABG was about twice the expected mortality in the corresponding background population. In Cox proportional hazards models age, smoking, history of MI, body mass index and diabetes were significant predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The prognosis of male CABG patients did not differ from the prognosis of the corresponding background population for about ten years, but started to deteriorate after that. History of MI prior to CABG and major cardiovascular risk factors was a predictor of an adverse outcome.

Myocardial infarction in diabetic and non-diabetic persons with and without prior myocardial infarction: the FINAMI Study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

We compared the risk of acute coronary events in diabetic and non-diabetic persons with and without prior myocardial infarction (MI), stratified by age and sex.

METHODS

A Finnish MI-register study known as FINAMI recorded incident MIs and coronary deaths (n=6988) among people aged 45 to 74 years in four areas of Finland between 1993 and 2002. The population-based FINRISK surveys were used to estimate the numbers of persons with prior diabetes and prior MI in the population.

RESULTS

Persons with diabetes but no prior MI and persons with prior MI but no diabetes had a markedly greater risk of a coronary event than persons without diabetes and without prior MI. The rate of recurrent MI among non-diabetic men with prior MI was higher than the incidence of first MI among diabetic men aged 45 to 54 years. The rate ratio was 2.14 (95% CI 1.40-3.27) among men aged 50. Among elderly men, diabetes conferred a higher risk than prior MI. Diabetic women had a similar risk of suffering a first MI as non-diabetic women with a prior MI had for suffering a recurrent MI.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Both persons with diabetes but no prior MI, and persons with a prior MI but no diabetes are high-risk individuals. Among men, a prior MI conferred a higher risk of a coronary event than diabetes in the 45-54 year age group, but the situation was reversed in the elderly. Among diabetic women, the risk of suffering a first MI was similar to the risk that non-diabetic women with prior MI had of suffering a recurrent MI.

Five-year risk of developing clinical diabetes after first myocardial infarction; the FINAMI study

AIM

To investigate the incidence of clinical diabetes as determined by the incidence of diabetes drug reimbursements within a 5-year period after the first myocardial infarction (MI) in patients who were non-diabetic at the time of their first MI.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A population-based MI register, FINMONICA/FINAMI, recorded all coronary events in persons of 35-64 years of age between 1988 and 2002 in four study areas in Finland. These records were used to identify subjects sustaining their first MI (n = 2632). Participants of the population-based risk factor survey FINRISK (surveys 1987, 1992, 1997 and 2002), who did not have diabetes or a history of MI, served as the control group (n = 7774). The FINMONICA/FINAMI study records were linked with the National Social Security Institute's drug reimbursement records, which include diabetes medications, using personal identification codes. The records were used to identify subjects who developed diabetes during the 5-year follow-up period (n = 98 in the MI group and n = 79 in the control group).

RESULTS

Sixteen per cent of men and 20% of women sustaining their first MI were known to have diabetes and thus were excluded from this analysis. Non-diabetic men having a first MI were at more than twofold {hazard ratio (HR) 2.3 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.6-3.4]}, and women fourfold [HR 4.3 (95% CI 2.4-7.5)], risk of developing diabetes mellitus during the next 5 years compared with the control population without MI.

CONCLUSIONS

Many patients who do not have diabetes at the time of their first MI develop diabetes in the following 5 years.

Analysis of the relationship between total cholesterol, age, body mass index among males and females in the WHO MONICA Project

OBJECTIVE

To explore the relationship between hypercholesterolaemia, age and BMI among females and males.

DESIGN

Population-based cross-sectional survey.

SUBJECTS

The data came from the initial surveys of the WHO MONICA Project. In all, 27 populations with 48 283 subjects (24 017 males and 24 266 females) aged 25-64 y were used for the analysis.

MEASUREMENTS

Total cholesterol, weight, height, BMI, prevalence of hypercholesterolaemia (PHC) defined as cholesterol >/=6.5 mmol/l, and the prevalence of obesity (POB) defined as BMI >/=30 kg/m(2).

RESULTS

PHC increased with age, with PHC in males being significantly higher than in females at age range 25-49 y and significantly lower than in females at age range 50-64 y. Age-related increase in hypercholesterolaemia was steeper in females than in males. There was a statistically significant positive association between hypercholesterolaemia and BMI. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed a negative statistically significant (P<0.001) effect modification involving age and BMI on the risk of having hypercholesterolaemia both in females and males. The relation between PHC and BMI became weaker in higher age groups, with no statistically significant association in females aged 50-64 y.

CONCLUSION

Public health measures should be directed at the prevention of obesity in young adults since the strongest effect of obesity on the risk of hypercholesterolaemia has been found in subjects aged 25-39 y.

Trends in obesity and energy supply in the WHO MONICA Project

OBJECTIVE

To examine the relationship between secular trends in energy supply and body mass index (BMI) among several countries.

DESIGN

Aggregate level analyses of annually reported country food data against anthropometric data collected in independent cross-sectional samples from 34 populations in 21 countries from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s.

SUBJECTS

Population randomly selected participants aged 35-64 y.

MEASUREMENTS

BMI data were obtained from the WHO MONICA Project. Food energy supply data were derived from the Food Balance Sheet of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

RESULTS

Mean BMI as well as the prevalence of overweight (BMI > or =25 kg/m2) increased in virtually all Western European countries, Australia, the USA, and China. Decreasing trends in BMI were seen in Central and Eastern European countries. Increasing trends in total energy supply per capita were found in most high-income countries and China while decreasing trends existed in Eastern European countries. Between country differences in temporal trends of total energy supply per capita explained 41% of the variation of trends in mean BMI; the effect was similar upon the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Trends in percent of energy supply from total fat per capita had a slight effect on the trends in mean BMI (+7% increment in R2) when the total energy supply per capita was adjusted for, while energy supply from total sweeteners per capita had no additional effect.

CONCLUSION

Increasing energy supply is closely associated with the increase of overweight and obesity in western countries. This emphasizes the importance of dietary issues when coping with the obesity epidemic.

Decline in out-of-hospital coronary heart disease deaths has contributed the main part to the overall decline in coronary heart disease mortality rates among persons 35 to 64 years of age in Finland: the FINAMI study

BACKGROUND

Out-of-hospital deaths constitute the majority of all coronary heart disease (CHD) deaths and are therefore of considerable public health significance.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used population-based myocardial infarction register data to examine trends in out-of-hospital CHD deaths in Finland during 1983 to 1997. We included in out-of-hospital deaths also deaths in the emergency room and all deaths within 1 hour after the onset of symptoms. Altogether, 3494 such events were included in the analyses. The proportion of out-of-hospital deaths of all CHD deaths depended on age and gender. In the age group 35 to 64 years, it was 73% among men and 60% among women. These proportions did not change during the study. The annual average decline in the age-standardized out-of-hospital CHD death rate was 6.1% (95% CI, -7.3, -5.0%) among men and 7.0% (-10.0, -4.0%) among women. These declines contributed among men 70% and among women 58% to the overall decline in CHD mortality rate. In all, 58% of the male and 52% of the female victims of out-of-hospital CHD death had a history of symptomatic CHD. Among men with a prior history of myocardial infarction, the annual average decline in out-of-hospital CHD deaths was 5.3% (-7.2, -3.2%), and among men without such history the decline was 2.9% (-4.4, -1.5%). Among women, the corresponding changes were -7.8% (-14.2, -1.5%) and -4.5% (-8.0, -1.0%).

CONCLUSIONS

The decline in out-of-hospital CHD deaths has contributed the main part to the overall decline in CHD mortality rates among persons 35 to 64 years of age in Finland.

Trends in coronary events in Finland during 1983-1997. The FINAMI study

AIMS

To analyse the trends in incidence, recurrence, case fatality, and treatments of acute coronary events in Finland during the 15-year period 1983-97.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Population-based MI registration has been carried out in defined geographical areas, first as a part of the FINMONICA Project and then continued as the FINAMI register. During the study period, 6501 coronary heart disease (CHD) events were recorded among men and 1778 among women aged 35-64 years. The CHD mortality declined on average 6.4%/year (95% confidence interval -5.4, -7.4%) among men and 7.0%/year (-4.7, -9.3%) among women. The mortality from recurrent events declined even more steeply, 9.9%/year (-8.3, -11.4%) among men and 9.3%/year (-5.1, -13.4%) among women. The proportion of recurrent events of all CHD events also declined significantly in both sexes. Of all coronary deaths, 74% among men and 61% among women took place out-of-hospital. The decline in 28-day case fatality was 1.3%/year (-0.3, -2.3%) among men and 3.1%/year (-0.7, -5.5%) among women.

CONCLUSIONS

The study period was characterized by a marked reduction in the occurrence of recurrent CHD events and a relatively modest reduction in the 28-day case fatality. The findings suggest that primary and secondary prevention have played the main roles in the decline in CHD mortality in Finland.

Trends in coronary risk factors in the WHO MONICA project

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA Project was established to determine how trends in event rates for coronary heart disease (CHD) and, optionally, stroke were related to trends in classic coronary risk factors. Risk factors were therefore monitored over ten years across 38 populations from 21 countries in four continents (overall period covered: 1979-1996).

METHODS

A standard protocol was applied across participating centres, in at least two, and usually three, independent surveys conducted on random samples of the study populations, well separated within the 10-year study period.

RESULTS

Smoking rates decreased in most male populations (35-64 years) but in females the majority showed increases. Systolic blood pressure showed decreasing trends in the majority of centres in both sexes. Mean levels of cholesterol generally showed downward trends, which, although the changes were small, had large effects on risk. There was a trend of increasing body mass index (BMI) with half the female populations and two-thirds of the male populations showing a significant increase.

CONCLUSIONS

It is feasible to monitor the classic CHD risk factors in diverse populations through repeated surveys over a decade. In general, the risk factor trends are downwards in most populations but in particular, an increase in smoking in women in many populations and increasing BMI, especially in men, are worrying findings with significant public health implications.

Trends in coronary risk factors in the WHO MONICA project

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA Project was established to determine how trends in event rates for coronary heart disease (CHD) and, optionally, stroke were related to trends in classic coronary risk factors. Risk factors were therefore monitored over ten years across 38 populations from 21 countries in four continents (overall period covered: 1979-1996).

METHODS

A standard protocol was applied across participating centres, in at least two, and usually three, independent surveys conducted on random samples of the study populations, well separated within the 10-year study period.

RESULTS

Smoking rates decreased in most male populations (35-64 years) but in females the majority showed increases. Systolic blood pressure showed decreasing trends in the majority of centres in both sexes. Mean levels of cholesterol generally showed downward trends, which, although the changes were small, had large effects on risk. There was a trend of increasing body mass index (BMI) with half the female populations and two-thirds of the male populations showing a significant increase.

CONCLUSIONS

It is feasible to monitor the classic CHD risk factors in diverse populations through repeated surveys over a decade. In general, the risk factor trends are downwards in most populations but in particular, an increase in smoking in women in many populations and increasing BMI, especially in men, are worrying findings with significant public health implications.

Relation of socioeconomic position to the case fatality, prognosis and treatment of myocardial infarction events; the FINMONICA MI Register Study

OBJECTIVE

To examine socioeconomic differences in case fatality and prognosis of myocardial infarction (MI) events, and to estimate the contributions of incidence and case fatality to socioeconomic differences in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality.

DESIGN

A population-based MI register study.

METHODS

The FINMONICA MI Register recorded all MI events among persons aged 35-64 years in three areas of Finland during 1983-1992. A record linkage of the MI Register data with the files of Statistics Finland was performed to obtain information on socioeconomic indicators for each individual registered. First MI events (n=8427) were included in the analyses.

MAIN RESULTS

The adjusted risk ratio of prehospital coronary death was 2.11 (95% CI 1.82, 2.46) among men and 1.68 (1.14, 2.48) among women with low income compared with those with high income. Even among persons hospitalised alive the risk of death during the next 12 months was markedly higher in the low income group than in the high income group. Case fatality explained 51% of the CHD mortality difference between the low and the high income groups among men and 38% among women. Incidence contributed 49% and 62%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Considerable socioeconomic differences were observed in the case fatality of first coronary events both before hospitalisation and among patients hospitalised alive. Case fatality explained a half of the CHD mortality difference between the low and the high income groups among men and more than a third among women.

Socioeconomic status and ischemic stroke: The FINMONICA Stroke Register

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

It has been shown that low socioeconomic status is associated with death from stroke. More-detailed data have, however, remained scanty. The purpose of the present study was to examine the association of socioeconomic status with ischemic stroke. Besides mortality, we analyzed the incidence, case-fatality ratio, and prognosis of ischemic stroke events.

METHODS

Our population-based study included 6903 first stroke events registered by the FINMONICA Stroke Register in 3 areas of Finland during 1983 to 1992. Indicators of socioeconomic status, such as taxable income and education, were obtained by record linkage of the stroke register data with files of Statistics Finland.

RESULTS

Incidence, case-fatality ratio, and mortality rates for ischemic stroke were all inversely related to income. Furthermore, 28 days after the onset of symptoms, a greater proportion of patients with low income than of those with high income was still in institutionalized care and/or in need of help for their activities of daily living. Population-attributable risk of the incidence of first ischemic stroke due to low socioeconomic status was 36% for both sexes. For the death from first ischemic stroke, it was 56% for both sexes.

CONCLUSIONS

Persons with low socioeconomic status have considerable excess rates of morbidity and mortality from ischemic stroke in Finland. A reduction in this excess could markedly decrease the burden of ischemic stroke to the society and thus constitute an important public health improvement.

Trends in cigarette smoking in 36 populations from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s: findings from the WHO MONICA Project

OBJECTIVES

This report analyzes cigarette smoking over 10 years in populations in the World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA Project (to monitor trends and determinants of cardiovascular disease).

METHODS

Over 300,000 randomly selected subjects aged 25 to 64 years participated in surveys conducted in geographically defined populations.

RESULTS

For men, smoking prevalence decreased by more than 5% in 16 of the 36 study populations, remained static in most others, but increased in Beijing. Where prevalence decreased, this was largely due to higher proportions of never smokers in the younger age groups rather than to smokers quitting. Among women, smoking prevalence increased by more than 5% in 6 populations and decreased by more than 5% in 9 populations. For women, smoking tended to increase in populations with low prevalence and decrease in populations with higher prevalence; for men, the reverse pattern was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

These data illustrate the evolution of the smoking epidemic in populations and provide the basis for targeted public health interventions to support the WHO priority for tobacco control.

Educational level, relative body weight, and changes in their association over 10 years: an international perspective from the WHO MONICA Project

OBJECTIVES

This study assessed the consistency and magnitude of the association between educational level and relative body weight in populations with widely different prevalences of over-weight and investigated possible changes in the association over 10 years.

METHODS

Differences in age-adjusted mean body mass index (BMI) between the highest and the lowest tertiles of years of schooling were calculated for 26 populations in the initial and final surveys of the World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA (Monitoring Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease) Project. The data are derived from random population samples, including more than 42,000 men and women aged 35 to 64 years in the initial survey (1979-1989) and almost 35,000 in the final survey (1989-1996).

RESULTS

For women, almost all populations showed a statistically significant inverse association between educational level and BMI; the difference between the highest and the lowest educational tertiles ranged from -3.3 to 0.4 kg/m2. For men, the difference ranged from -1.5 to 2.2 kg/m2. In about two thirds of the populations, the differences in BMI between the educational levels increased over the 10-year period.

CONCLUSION

Lower education was associated with higher BMI in about half of the male and in almost all of the female populations, and the differences in relative body weight between educational levels increased over the study period. Thus, socioeconomic inequality in health consequences of obesity may increase in many countries.

Relationship of socioeconomic status to the incidence and prehospital, 28-day, and 1-year mortality rates of acute coronary events in the FINMONICA myocardial infarction register study

BACKGROUND

Low socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with increased coronary heart disease mortality rates. There are, however, very little data on the relation of SES to the incidence, recurrence, and prognosis of myocardial infarction (MI) events.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The FINMONICA MI Register recorded detailed information on all MI events among men and women aged 35 to 64 years in 3 areas of Finland during the period of 1983 to 1992. We carried out a record linkage of the MI register data with files of Statistics Finland to obtain information on indicators of SES, such as taxable income and education, for each individual who is registered. In the analyses, income was grouped into 3 categories (low, middle, and high), and education was grouped into 2 categories (basic and secondary or higher). Among men with their first MI event (n=6485), the adjusted incidence rate ratios were 1.67 (95% CI 1.57 to 1.78) and 1.84 (95% CI 1.73 to 1.95) in the low- and middle-income categories compared with the high-income category. For 28-day mortality rates, the corresponding rate ratios were 3.18 (95% CI 2.82 to 3.58) and 2.33 (95% CI 2.03 to 2.68). Significant differentials were observed for prehospital mortality rates, and they remained similar up to 1 year after the MI. Findings among the women were consistent with those among the men.

CONCLUSIONS

The excess coronary heart disease mortality and morbidity rates among persons with low SES are considerable in Finland. To bring the mortality rates of low- and middle-SES groups down to the level of that of the high-SES group constitutes a major public health challenge.

Estimation of contribution of changes in coronary care to improving survival, event rates, and coronary heart disease mortality across the WHO MONICA Project populations

BACKGROUND

The revolution in coronary care in the mid-1980s to mid-1990s corresponded with monitoring of coronary heart disease (CHD) in 31 populations of the WHO MONICA Project. We studied the impact of this revolution on coronary endpoints.

METHODS

Case fatality, coronary-event rates, and CHD mortality were monitored in men and women aged 35-64 years in two separate 3-4-year periods. In each period, we recorded percentage use of eight treatments: coronary-artery reperfusion before, thrombolytics during, and beta-blockers, antiplatelet drugs, and angiotensin-converting-enzyme (ACE) inhibitors before and during non-fatal myocardial infarction. Values were averaged to produce treatment scores. We correlated changes across populations, and regressed changes in coronary endpoints on changes in treatment scores.

FINDINGS

Treatment changes correlated positively with each other but inversely with change in coronary endpoints. By regression, for the common average treatment change of 20, case fatality fell by 19% (95% CI 12-26) in men and 16% (5-27) in women; coronary-event rates fell by 25% (16-35) and 23% (7-39); and CHD mortality rates fell by 42% (31-53) and 34% (17-50). The regression model explained an estimated 61% and 41% of variance for men and women in trends for case fatality, 52% and 30% for coronary-event rates, and 72% and 56% for CHD mortality.

INTERPRETATION

Changes in coronary care and secondary prevention were strongly linked with declining coronary endpoints. Scores and benefits followed a geographical east-to-west gradient. The apparent effects of the treatment might be exaggerated by other changes in economically successful populations, so their specificity needs further assessment.

Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations

BACKGROUND

From the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the WHO MONICA Project monitored coronary events and classic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in 38 populations from 21 countries. We assessed the extent to which changes in these risk factors explain the variation in the trends in coronary-event rates across the populations.

METHODS

In men and women aged 35-64 years, non-fatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths were registered continuously to assess trends in rates of coronary events. We carried out population surveys to estimate trends in risk factors. Trends in event rates were regressed on trends in risk score and in individual risk factors.

FINDINGS

Smoking rates decreased in most male populations but trends were mixed in women; mean blood pressures and cholesterol concentrations decreased, bodymass index increased, and overall risk scores and coronary-event rates decreased. The model of trends in 10-year coronary-event rates against risk scores and single risk factors showed a poor fit, but this was improved with a 4-year time lag for coronary events. The explanatory power of the analyses was limited by imprecision of the estimates and homogeneity of trends in the study populations.

INTERPRETATION

Changes in the classic risk factors seem to partly explain the variation in population trends in CHD. Residual variance is attributable to difficulties in measurement and analysis, including time lag, and to factors that were not included, such as medical interventions. The results support prevention policies based on the classic risk factors but suggest potential for prevention beyond these.

Varying sensitivity of waist action levels to identify subjects with overweight or obesity in 19 populations of the WHO MONICA Project

It has been suggested in the literature that cut-off points based on waist circumference (waist action levels) should replace cut-off points based on body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio in identifying subjects with overweight or obesity. In this article, we examine the sensitivity and specificity of the cut-off points when applied to 19 populations with widely different prevalences of overweight. Our design was a cross-sectional study based on random population samples. A total of 32,978 subjects aged 25-64 years from 19 male and 18 female populations participating in the second MONICA survey from 1987 to 1992 were included in this study. We found that at waist action level 1 (waist circumference > or =94 cm in men and > or =80 cm in women), sensitivity varied between 40% and 80% in men and between 51% and 86% in women between populations when compared with the cut-off points based on BMI (> or =25 kg/m2) and waist-to-hip ratio (> or =0.95 for men, > or =0.80 for women). Specificity was high (> or =90%) in all populations. At waist action level 2 (waist circumference > or =102 cm and > or =88 cm in men and women, respectively, BMI > or =30 kg/m2), sensitivity varied from 22% to 64% in men and from 26% to 67% in women, whereas specificity was >95% in all populations. Sensitivity was in general lowest in populations in which overweight was relatively uncommon, whereas it was highest in populations with relatively high prevalence of overweight. We propose that cut-off points based on waist circumference as a replacement for cut-off points based on BMI and waist-to-hip ratio should be viewed with caution. Based on the proposed waist action levels, very few people would unnecessarily be advised to have weight management, but a varying proportion of those who would need it might be missed. The optimal screening cut-off points for waist circumference may be population specific.

Contribution of trends in survival and coronary-event rates to changes in coronary heart disease mortality: 10-year results from 37 WHO MONICA project populations. Monitoring trends and determinants in cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND

The WHO MONICA (monitoring trends and determinants in cardiovascular disease) Project monitored, from the early 1980s, trends over 10 years in coronary heart disease (CHD) across 37 populations in 21 countries. We aimed to validate trends in mortality, partitioning responsibility between changing coronary-event rates and changing survival.

METHODS

Registers identified non-fatal definite myocardial infarction and definite, possible, or unclassifiable coronary deaths in men and women aged 35-64 years, followed up for 28 days in or out of hospital. We calculated rates from population denominators to estimate trends in age-standardised rates and case fatality (percentage of 28-day fatalities=[100-survival percentage]).

FINDINGS

During 371 population-years, 166,000 events were registered. Official CHD mortality rates, based on death certification, fell (annual changes: men -4.0% [range -10.8 to 3.2]; women -4.0% [-12.7 to 3.0]). By MONICA criteria, CHD mortality rates were higher, but fell less (-2.7% [-8.0 to 4.2] and -2.1% [-8.5 to 4.1]). Changes in non-fatal rates were smaller (-2.1%, [-6.9 to 2.8] and -0.8% [-9.8 to 6.8]). MONICA coronary-event rates (fatal and non-fatal combined) fell more (-2.1% [-6.5 to 2.8] and -1.4% [-6.7 to 2.8]) than case fatality (-0.6% [-4.2 to 3.1] and -0.8% [-4.8 to 2.9]). Contribution to changing CHD mortality varied, but in populations in which mortality decreased, coronary-event rates contributed two thirds and case fatality one third.

INTERPRETATION

Over the decade studied, the 37 populations in the WHO MONICA Project showed substantial contributions from changes in survival, but the major determinant of decline in CHD mortality is whatever drives changing coronary-event rates.