Socioeconomic inequalities in accumulation of multimorbidity in England from 2019 to 2049: a microsimulation projection study

BACKGROUND

There are socioeconomic inequalities in the prevalence of multimorbidity and its accumulation across the life course. Estimates of multimorbidity prevalence in English primary care increased by more than two-thirds from 2004 to 2019. We developed a microsimulation model to quantify current and projected multimorbidity inequalities in the English adult population.

METHODS

We used primary care data for adults in England from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database between 2004 and 2019, linked to the 2015 English Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), to model time individuals spent in four health states (healthy, one chronic condition, basic multimorbidity [two or more chronic conditions], and complex multimorbidity [three or more chronic conditions affecting three or more body systems]) by sex, age, IMD quintile, birth cohort, and region. We applied these transition times in a stochastic dynamic continuous-time microsimulation model to Office for National Statistics population estimates for adults aged 30-90 years. We calculated projected prevalence and cumulative incident cases from 2019 to 2049 by IMD quintile, age group (younger than 65 years vs 65 years and older), and years to be lived without multimorbidity at age 30 years.

FINDINGS

Under the assumption that all chronic conditions were lifelong, and that once diagnosed there was no recovery, we projected prevalence of multimorbidity (basic or complex) increases by 34% from 53·8% in 2019 to 71·9% (95% uncertainty interval 71·8-72·0) in 2049. This rise equates to an 84% increase in the number of people with multimorbidity: from 19·2 million in 2019 to 35·3 million in 2049 (35·3 million to 35·4 million). This projected increase is greatest in the most deprived quintile, with an excess 1·07 million (1·04 million to 1·10 million) cumulative incident basic multimorbidity cases and 0·70 million (0·67 million to 0·74 million) complex multimorbidity cases over and above the projected cases for the least deprived quintile, largely driven by inequalities in those younger than 65 years. The median expected number of years to be lived without multimorbidity at age 30 years in 2019 is 15·12 years (14·62-16·01) in the least deprived IMD quintile and 12·15 years (11·61-12·60) in the most deprived IMD quintile.

INTERPRETATION

The number of people living with multimorbidity will probably increase substantially in the next 30 years, a continuation of past observed increases partly driven by changing population size and age structure. Inequalities in the multimorbidity burden increase at each stage of disease accumulation, and are projected to widen, particularly among the working-age population. Substantial action is needed now to address population health and to prepare health-care and social-care systems for coming decades.

FUNDING

University of Liverpool and National Institute for Health and Care Research School for Public Health Research.

Microstructural alterations of major thalamic nuclei in the chronic pediatric spinal cord injured population

Background

The brain undergoes reorganization following spinal cord injury (SCI), but little is known about how the thalamus is affected in pediatric SCIs.

Purpose

To characterize microstructural alterations in the thalamus after SCI with diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) metrics.

Methods

18 pediatric participants with chronic SCI (8-20 years) were stratified using the American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale (AIS) into groups: A, B, and C/D. DTI of the brain used a 3 T Siemens Verio MRI using the parameters: 20 directions, number of averages = 3, b = 1000 s/mm2, voxel size = 1.8 mm × 1.8 mm, slice thickness = 5 mm, TE = 95 ms, TR = 4300 ms, 30 slices, FOV = 230 × 230 mm2, matrix = 128 × 128, acquisition time = 4:45 min. Diffusion data was processed to generate DTI metrics FA, MD, AD, and RD.

Data analysis

DTI metrics were acquired by superimposing the AAL3 thalamic atlas onto participant diffusion images registered to MNI152 space. We utilized a multiple Mann-Whitney U-test to compare between AIS groups, considering values of p ≤ 0.05 as significant.

Results

FA, AD, RD, and MD significantly differed in thalamic nuclei between AIS groups A vs B and B vs C/D. Significant nuclei include the right ventral anterior, left intralaminar, bilateral lateral pulvinar, and right lateral geniculate.

Conclusion

Our findings suggest the presence of microstructural alterations based on SCI severity in pediatric patients. These results are encouraging and warrant further study.

Exploring how to improve the involvement of Polish and South Asian communities around big data research. A qualitative study using COM-B model

Introduction

Involving public contributors helps researchers to ensure that public views are taken into consideration when designing and planning research, so that it is person-centred and relevant to the public. This paper will consider public involvement in big data research. Inclusion of different communities is needed to ensure everyone's voice is heard. However, there remains limited evidence on how to improve the involvement of seldom-heard communities in big data research.

Objectives

This study aims to understand how South Asians and Polish communities in the UK can be encouraged to participate in public involvement initiatives in big data research.

Methods

Forty interviews were conducted with Polish (n=20) and South Asian (n=20) participants on Zoom. The participants were living in the United Kingdom and had not previously been involved as public contributors. Transcribed interviews were analysed using reflexive thematic analysis.

Results

We identified eight themes. The 'happy to reuse data' theme sets the scene by exploring our participants' views towards big data research and under what circumstances they thought that data could be used. The remaining themes were mapped under the capability-opportunity-motivation-behaviour (COM-B) model, as developed by Michie and colleagues. This allowed us to discuss multiple factors that could influence people's willingness to become public contributors.

Conclusions

Our study is the first to explore how to improve the involvement and engagement of seldom-heard communities in big data research using the COM-B model. The results have the potential to support researchers who want to identify what can influence members of the public to be involved. By using the COM-B model, it is possible to determine what measures could be implemented to better engage these communities.

'To me, it's ones and zeros, but in reality that one is death': A qualitative study exploring researchers' experience of involving and engaging seldom-heard communities in big data research

BACKGROUND

Big data research requires public support. It has been argued that this can be achieved by public involvement and engagement to ensure that public views are at the centre of research projects. Researchers should aim to include diverse communities, including seldom-heard voices, to ensure that a range of voices are heard and that research is meaningful to them.

OBJECTIVE

We explored how researchers involve and engage seldom-heard communities around big data research.

METHODS

This is a qualitative study. Researchers who had experience of involving or engaging seldom-heard communities in big data research were recruited. They were based in England (n = 5), Scotland (n = 4), Belgium (n = 2) and Canada (n = 1). Twelve semistructured interviews were conducted on Zoom. All interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed, and we used reflexive thematic analysis to analyse participants' experiences.

RESULTS

The analysis highlighted the complexity of involving and engaging seldom-heard communities around big data research. Four themes were developed to represent participants' experiences: (1) abstraction and complexity of big data, (2) one size does not fit all, (3) working in partnership and (4) empowering the public contribution.

CONCLUSION

The study offers researchers a better understanding of how to involve and engage seldom-heard communities in a meaningful way around big data research. There is no one right approach, with involvement and engagement activities required to be project-specific and dependent on the public contributors, researchers' needs, resources and time available.

PATIENT AND PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT

Two public contributors are authors of the paper and they were involved in the study design, analysis and writing.

The clustering of physical health conditions and associations with co-occurring mental health problems and problematic alcohol use: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

There is strong evidence for the co-occurrence of mental health conditions and alcohol problems, yet physical health outcomes among this group are not well characterised. This study aimed to identify clusters of physical health conditions and their associations with mental health and problematic alcohol use in England's general population.

METHODS

Cross-sectional analysis of the 2014 Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey (N = 7546) was conducted. The survey used standardised measures of problematic alcohol use and mental health conditions, including the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) and the Clinical Interview Schedule-Revised. Participants self-reported any lifetime physical health conditions. Latent class analysis considered 12 common physical illnesses to identify clusters of multimorbidity. Multinomial logistic regression (adjusting for age, gender, ethnicity, education, and occupational grade) was used to explore associations between mental health, hazardous drinking (AUDIT 8 +), and co-occurring physical illnesses.

RESULTS

Five clusters were identified with statistically distinct and clinically meaningful disease patterns: 'Physically Healthy' (76.62%), 'Emerging Multimorbidity' (3.12%), 'Hypertension & Arthritis' (14.28%), 'Digestive & Bowel Problems'' (3.17%), and 'Complex Multimorbidity' (2.8%). Having a mental health problem was associated with increased odds of 'Digestive & Bowel Problems' (adjusted multinomial odds ratio (AMOR) = 1.58; 95% CI [1.15-2.17]) and 'Complex Multimorbidity' (AMOR = 2.02; 95% CI [1.49-2.74]). Individuals with co-occurring mental health conditions and problematic alcohol use also had higher odds of 'Digestive & Bowel Problems' (AMOR = 2.64; 95% CI [1.68-4.15]) and 'Complex Multimorbidity' (AMOR = 2.62; 95% CI [1.61-4.23]).

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals with a mental health condition concurrent with problematic alcohol use experience a greater burden of physical illnesses, highlighting the need for timely treatment which is likely to include better integration of alcohol and mental health services.

Use of the Hashtag #DataSavesLives on Twitter: Exploratory and Thematic Analysis

Background

“Data Saves Lives” is a public engagement campaign that highlights the benefits of big data research and aims to establish public trust for this emerging research area.

Objective

This study explores how the hashtag #DataSavesLives is used on Twitter. We focused on the period when the UK government and its agencies adopted #DataSavesLives in an attempt to support their plans to set up a new database holding National Health Service (NHS) users’ medical data.

Methods

Public tweets published between April 19 and July 15, 2021, using the hashtag #DataSavesLives were saved using NCapture for NVivo 12. All tweets were coded twice. First, each tweet was assigned a positive, neutral, or negative attitude toward the campaign. Second, inductive thematic analysis was conducted. The results of the thematic analysis were mapped under 3 models of public engagement: deficit, dialogue, and participatory.

Results

Of 1026 unique tweets available for qualitative analysis, discussion around #DataSavesLives was largely positive (n=716, 69.8%) or neutral (n=276, 26.9%) toward the campaign with limited negative attitudes (n=34, 3.3%). Themes derived from the #DataSavesLives debate included ethical sharing, proactively engaging the public, coproducing knowledge with the public, harnessing potential, and gaining an understanding of big data research. The Twitter discourse was largely positive toward the campaign. The hashtag is predominantly used by similar-minded Twitter users to share information about big data projects and to spread positive messages about big data research when there are public controversies. The hashtag is generally used by organizations and people supportive of big data research. Tweet authors recognize that the public should be proactively engaged and involved in big data projects. The campaign remains UK centric. The results indicate that the communication around big data research is driven by the professional community and remains 1-way as members of the public rarely use the hashtag.

Conclusions

The results demonstrate the potential of social media but draws attention to hashtag usage being generally confined to “Twitter bubbles”: groups of similar-minded Twitter users.

The perceived impact of project ECHO networks in Northern Ireland for health and social care providers, patients, and the health system: A qualitative analysis

This study assesses the perceived impact and benefits of Project ECHO (Extension for Community Healthcare Outcomes), a tele-mentoring intervention for health and social care providers, patients and the health system in Northern Ireland. Having access to a specialist, a space to share experiences, and being able to disseminate up-to-date best practice were all cited as improving provider knowledge as well as improving quality of care for patients. Healthcare providers reported being more confident in managing patients and that relationships had been improved between different levels of the health system. ECHO was described as improving access to education and training by removing geographic and time barriers. This is one of the first studies to qualitatively analyse impact across a number of different clinical and social care ECHO networks. The results strongly indicate the perceived benefit of ECHO in improving provider, patient and health system outcomes such as increased healthcare provider knowledge and confidence to manage patients at primary levels of the health system. This has implications for future service design, particularly within the context of COVID-19 in which virtual and online training is necessitated by social distancing requirements.

Involvement and engagement of seldom-heard communities in big data research

ObjectivesPublic involvement and engagement have been growing within big data research. However, seldom heard voices such as migrant and ethnic minorities communities are often underrepresented. This study explored how Polish and South Asian communities in the United Kingdom could be better included in public involvement and engagement activities. ApproachWe conducted semi-structured interviews with Polish (n=20) and South Asians (n=20) to elicit their views on big data research, public involvement and engagement. We focused on Polish and South Asian communities as they represent some of the United Kingdom’s largest migrant and ethnic minority groups. Data were analysed using inductive thematic analysis. Public advisors were involved in the analysis. They and one of the researchers come from ethnic minority and offered insider insight into participants' perspectives and thus allowing us to unpick the complexity of experiences and backgrounds. ResultsThe majority of participants were willing to become involved or engaged in big data research. However, we found there were multiple barriers to involvement, these included: language (especially for those for whom English is the second language); use of jargon by researchers; time restrictions and unfamiliarity with big data or public involvement. Some participants questioned how much migrants could be involved when they were only in the United Kingdom on a temporary basis. The participants made recommendations for how researchers can mitigate these barriers. Awareness-raising activities would allow people to expand their understanding and build their confidence when speaking about big data research in a second language. Participants spoke of the need for researchers to work more closely with local communities, especially with local gatekeepers. ConclusionsThe results indicate that there is no ‘right’ way to involve and engage seldom heard communities around big data research. Researchers need to engage with communities, establish trust and develop a long-lasting relationships. These partnerships should move beyond single projects and aim to benefit both researchers and seldom heard communities.

Psychosocial Interventions to Improve Psychological, Social and Physical Wellbeing in Family Members Affected by an Adult Relative's Substance Use: A Systematic Search and Review of the Evidence

It is estimated that over 100 million people worldwide are affected by the substance use of a close relative and often experience related adverse health and social outcomes. There is a growing body of literature evaluating psychosocial interventions intended to reduce these adverse outcomes. We searched the international literature, using rigorous systematic methods to search and review the evidence for effective interventions to improve the wellbeing of family members affected by the substance use of an adult relative. We synthesised the evidence narratively by intervention type, in line with the systematic search and review approach. Sixty-five papers (from 58 unique trials) meeting our inclusion criteria were identified. Behavioural interventions delivered conjointly with the substance user and the affected family members were found to be effective in improving the social wellbeing of family members (reducing intimate partner violence, enhancing relationship satisfaction and stability and family functioning). Affected adult family members may derive psychological benefit from an adjacent individually focused therapeutic intervention component. No interventions fully addressed the complex multidimensional adversities experienced by many families affected by substance use. Further research is needed to determine the effect of a multi-component psychosocial intervention, which seeks to support both the substance user and the affected family member.

ANZAED practice and training standards for dietitians providing eating disorder treatment

INTRODUCTION

Dietitians involved in eating disorder treatment are viewed as important members of the multidisciplinary team. However, the skills and knowledge that they require are not well characterised. Therefore, as part of a broader project to identify the key principles and clinical practice and training standards for mental health professionals and dietitians providing eating disorder treatment, the Australia & New Zealand Academy for Eating Disorders (ANZAED) sought to identify the key practice and training standards specific to dietitians. An expert working group of dietitians was convened to draft the initial dietetic standards. After expert review, feedback on the revised standards was then provided by 100 health professionals working within the eating disorder sector. This was collated into a revised version made available online for public consultation, with input received from treatment professionals, professional bodies and consumer/carer organisations.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Dietitians providing treatment to individuals with an eating disorder should follow ANZAED's general principles and clinical practice standards for mental health professionals and dietitians. In addition, they should also be competent in the present eating disorder-specific standards based around the core dietetic skills of screening, professional responsibility, assessment, nutrition diagnosis, intervention, monitoring and evaluation.

CONCLUSIONS

These standards provide guidance on the expectations of dietetic management to ensure the safe and effective treatment of individuals with an eating disorder. Implications for professional development content and training providers are discussed, as well as the importance of clinical supervision to support professional self-care and evidence-informed and safe practice for individuals with an eating disorder.

ANZAED eating disorder treatment principles and general clinical practice and training standards

INTRODUCTION

Eating disorders are complex to manage, and there is limited guidance around the depth and breadth of knowledge, skills and experience required by treatment providers. The Australia & New Zealand Academy for Eating Disorders (ANZAED) convened an expert group of eating disorder researchers and clinicians to define the clinical practice and training standards recommended for mental health professionals and dietitians providing treatment for individuals with an eating disorder. General principles and clinical practice standards were first developed, after which separate mental health professional and dietitian standards were drafted and collated by the appropriate members of the expert group. The subsequent review process included four stages of consultation and document revision: (1) expert reviewers; (2) a face-to-face consultation workshop attended by approximately 100 health professionals working within the sector; (3) an extensive open access online consultation process; and (4) consultation with key professional and consumer/carer stakeholder organisations.

RECOMMENDATIONS

The resulting paper outlines and describes the following eight eating disorder treatment principles: (1) early intervention is essential; (2) co-ordination of services is fundamental to all service models; (3) services must be evidence-based; (4) involvement of significant others in service provision is highly desirable; (5) a personalised treatment approach is required for all patients; (6) education and/or psychoeducation is included in all interventions; (7) multidisciplinary care is required and (8) a skilled workforce is necessary. Seven general clinical practice standards are also discussed, including: (1) diagnosis and assessment; (2) the multidisciplinary care team; (3) a positive therapeutic alliance; (4) knowledge of evidence-based treatment; (5) knowledge of levels of care; (6) relapse prevention; and (7) professional responsibility.

CONCLUSIONS

These principles and standards provide guidance to professional training programs and service providers on the development of knowledge required as a foundation on which to build competent practice in the eating disorder field. Implementing these standards aims to bring treatment closer to best practice, and consequently improve treatment outcomes, reduce financial cost to patients and services and improve patient quality of life.

Multimorbidity: the case for prevention

Multimorbidity is of increasing concern for healthcare systems globally, particularly in the context of ageing population structures, such as in the European Union and the UK. Although there is growing attention on developing strategies to manage the health and healthcare burden of older patients with multimorbidity, little research or policy focus has been placed on how to best prevent the development of multimorbidity in future generations. In this research agenda piece, we argue for a shift from a sole focus on the management of multimorbidity in old age to a multimorbidity agenda that considers prevention and management throughout the life-course.

Dynamics of multimorbidity in England between 2004 and 2019: a descriptive epidemiology study

Background

An estimated 25% of GP patients within the UK have multimorbidity, a large proportion of which is attributable to non-communicable diseases, many of them preventable. The heterogeneity of existing study methodologies limits comparisons to assess temporal trends. This study aims to use a large population-representative dataset to describe changes over time in multimorbidity incidence and prevalence.

Methods

We used two measures of multimorbidity a) basic: two or more chronic conditions; b) complex: at least three chronic conditions affecting at least three body systems. Chronic conditions for inclusion were discussed by a multidisciplinary team. A 1m random sample of patients registered between 2004 and 2019 at GP practices in England were drawn from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. We calculated crude and age-sex standardised annual multimorbidity prevalence and incidence using standard formulae. Analyses were conducted using R v3.6.3. Participants will be linked to the 2015 Index of Multiple Deprivation to describe equity trends over time.

Results

Preliminary results show that age-sex standardised annual prevalence increased from 32.9% (95% CI: 32.7% - 33.1%) with basic multimorbidity and 14.9% (95% CI: 14.7%-15.0%) with complex multimorbidity in 2004 to 51.0% (95% CI: 50.8% - 51.3%) and 29.9% (95% CI: 29.7% - 30.1%) in 2019. Basic multimorbidity incidence per 10,000 person-years showed little change, however there was an increase in the incidence of complex multimorbidity from 322 (95% CI: 315- 330) to 418 (95% CI: 407 - 430).

Conclusions

The burden of multimorbidity has increased substantially over the last 15 years. Complex multimorbidity incidence and prevalence have increased more rapidly than for basic multimorbidity. This highlights the need for improved population-level prevention strategies to postpone and prevent the onset of long-term conditions. Next, we will assess whether there are socioeconomic differences in these temporal trends.

Key messages

The burden of multimorbidity increased between 2004 and 2019. The increase in incidence and prevalence of complex multimorbidity was greater than for basic multimorbidity.

Quantifying the impact of the Public Health Responsibility Deal on salt intake, cardiovascular disease and gastric cancer burdens: interrupted time series and microsimulation study

Background

In 2011, England introduced the Public Health Responsibility Deal (RD), a public-private partnership (PPP) which gave greater freedom to the food industry to set and monitor targets for salt intakes. We estimated the impact of the RD on trends in salt intake and associated changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD) and gastric cancer (GCa) incidence, mortality and economic costs in England from 2011–2025.

Methods

We used interrupted time series models with 24 hours' urine sample data and the IMPACT_NCD microsimulation model to estimate impacts of changes in salt consumption on CVD and GCa incidence, mortality and economic impacts, as well as equity impacts.

Results

Between 2003 and 2010 mean salt intake was falling annually by 0.20 grams/day among men and 0.12 g/d among women (P-value for trend both < 0.001). After RD implementation in 2011, annual declines in salt intake slowed statistically significantly to 0.11 g/d among men and 0.07 g/d among women (P-values for differences in trend both P < 0.001). We estimated that the RD has been responsible for approximately 9900 (interquartile quartile range (IQR): 6700 to 13,000) additional cases of CVD and 1500 (IQR: 510 to 2300) additional cases of GCa between 2011 and 2018. If the RD continues unchanged between 2019 and 2025, approximately 26 000 (IQR: 20 000 to 31,000) additional cases of CVD and 3800 (IQR: 2200 to 5300) cases of GCa may occur.

Interpretation

Public-private partnerships such as the RD which lack robust and independent target setting, monitoring and enforcement are unlikely to produce optimal health gains.

Population-based cohort study of variation in the use of emergency cholecystectomy for benign gallbladder diseases

Background

The aims of this prospective population-based cohort study were to identify the patient and hospital characteristics associated with emergency cholecystectomy, and the influences of these in determining variations between hospitals.

Methods

Data were collected for consecutive patients undergoing cholecystectomy in acute UK and Irish hospitals between 1 March and 1 May 2014. Potential explanatory variables influencing the performance of emergency cholecystectomy were analysed by means of multilevel, multivariable logistic regression modelling using a two-level hierarchical structure with patients (level 1) nested within hospitals (level 2).

Results

Data were collected on 4744 cholecystectomies from 165 hospitals. Increasing age, lower ASA fitness grade, biliary colic, the need for further imaging (magnetic retrograde cholangiopancreatography), endoscopic interventions (endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography) and admission to a non-biliary centre significantly reduced the likelihood of an emergency cholecystectomy being performed. The multilevel model was used to calculate the probability of receiving an emergency cholecystectomy for a woman aged 40 years or over with an ASA grade of I or II and a BMI of at least 25·0 kg/m2, who presented with acute cholecystitis with an ultrasound scan showing a thick-walled gallbladder and a normal common bile duct. The mean predicted probability of receiving an emergency cholecystectomy was 0·52 (95 per cent c.i. 0·45 to 0·57). The predicted probabilities ranged from 0·02 to 0·95 across the 165 hospitals, demonstrating significant variation between hospitals.

Conclusion

Patients with similar characteristics presenting to different hospitals with acute gallbladder pathology do not receive comparable care.

Short communication: Variation of total immunoglobulin G and β-lactoglobulin concentrations in colostrum and milk from Canadian Holsteins classified as high, average, or low immune responders

The objective of this study was to evaluate IgG and β-lactoglobulin (β-LG) concentrations in colostrum and milk of Canadian Holsteins (n=108) classified as high (H), average (A), or low (L) for antibody-mediated (AMIR) or cell-mediated immune responses (CMIR) based on estimated breeding values. It was hypothesized that H-AMIR and H-CMIR cows produce colostrum (first milking) and milk (d 5 postcalving) with higher concentrations of IgG and β-LG. Data for IgG and β-LG in colostrum and milk were analyzed independently using mixed linear models. Least squares means were compared using Tukey's test. Cows classified as H-AMIR had higher IgG and β-LG concentrations in colostrum compared with A- and L-AMIR cows; 84% of H-AMIR, 69% of A-AMIR, and 68% of L-AMIR cows had over 5,000 mg/dL IgG in colostrum. No differences in IgG and β-LG concentrations in colostrum were noted among cows ranked on CMIR or in milk of cows ranked on AMIR. β-Lactoglobulin and IgG concentrations were positively correlated in colostrum. Breeding cows for H-AMIR status may reduce failure of passive transfer of IgG in their calves; β-LG may play a role in bovine immune defenses. Colostrum from H-AMIR cows may serve as a more economical feedstock source for manufacturing natural health products.

Aboriginal street-involved youth experience elevated risk of incarceration

OBJECTIVES

Past research has identified risk factors associated with incarceration among adult Aboriginal populations; however, less is known about incarceration among street-involved Aboriginal youth. Therefore, we undertook this study to longitudinally investigate recent reports of incarceration among a prospective cohort of street-involved youth in Vancouver, Canada.

STUDY DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

METHODS

Data were collected from a cohort of street-involved, drug-using youth from September 2005 to May 2013. Multivariate generalized estimating equation analyses were employed to examine the potential relationship between Aboriginal ancestry and recent incarceration.

RESULTS

Among our sample of 1050 youth, 248 (24%) reported being of aboriginal ancestry, and 378 (36%) reported being incarcerated in the previous six months at some point during the study period. In multivariate analysis controlling for a range of potential confounders including drug use patterns and other risk factors, Aboriginal ancestry remained significantly associated with recent incarceration (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.44; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.12-1.86).

CONCLUSIONS

Even after adjusting for drug use patterns and other risk factors associated with incarceration, this study found that Aboriginal street-involved youth were still significantly more likely to be incarcerated than their non-Aboriginal peers. Given the established harms associated with incarceration these findings underscore the pressing need for systematic reform including culturally appropriate interventions to prevent Aboriginal youth from becoming involved with the criminal justice system.

Gas and particle concentrations in horse stables with individual boxes as a function of the bedding material and the mucking regimen

The aim of this study was to compare different types of bedding and mucking regimens used in horse stables on the generation of airborne particulate matter <10 microm (PM10) and 3 biogenic gases (carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and especially ammonia). Three separate experiments were undertaken. The experiments were carried out in an enclosed stable (9.7 m long, 8.7 m wide, and 3.5 m high) that had 5 single boxes housing 4 horses. The measuring instruments were set up in the middle of one side of the stable. In Exp. 1, 3 types of bedding material (wheat straw, straw pellets, and wood shavings) used for horses were assessed according to their ammonia generation. Each type of bedding was used for 2 wk, with 3 repetitions. The mean ammonia concentrations within the stable were 3.07 +/- 0.23 mg/m(3) for wheat straw, 4.79 +/- 0.23 mg/m(3) for straw pellets, and 4.27 +/- 0.17 mg/m(3) for wood shavings. In Exp. 2, the effects of the mucking regimen on the generation of ammonia and PM10 from wheat straw (the bedding with the least ammonia generation in the previous experiment) were examined using 3 different daily regimens: 1) no mucking out, 2) complete mucking out, and 3) partial mucking out (removing only feces). The mean ammonia concentrations in the stable differed significantly among all 3 mucking regimens (P < 0.05). The greatest values were recorded when the stalls were mucked out completely every day [least squares means (LSM) = 2.25 +/- 0.1 mg/m(3)]. No mucking out resulted in an LSM of 1.92 +/- 0.1 mg of ammonia/m(3), whereas an LSM of 1.54 +/- 0.1 mg of ammonia/m(3) was found when the partial mucking out method was used. No mucking out also resulted in significantly less average PM10 (124.4 +/- 13.4 microg/m(3)) than in the other 2 regimens (P < 0.05). In Exp. 3, a 6-wk bedding regimen without mucking out was evaluated with regard to gas and airborne particle generation. The ammonia values were found not to increase constantly during the course of the 6-wk period. The average weekly values for PM10 also did not increase constantly but varied between approximately 90 and 140 microg/m. It can be concluded from the particle and gas generation patterns found in the results of all 3 experiments that wheat straw was the most suitable bedding of the 3 types investigated and that mucking out completely on a daily basis should not be undertaken in horse stables.

A comparative evaluation of two head and neck immobilization devices using electronic portal imaging

A study was performed to compare the positioning reproducibility and the cost efficiency for two head and neck immobilization devices: the Uvex (Uvex Safety, Smithfield, USA) plastic mask system and the Finesse Frame with Ultraplast System (PLANET Medical, Svendborg, Denmark). 20 patients treated with 3D conformal radiation therapy for head and neck cancers were randomly selected (10 for each of the two different immobilization systems) and electronic portal images acquired during their course of treatment were saved and used in this study. The anatomical landmark coordinates and their shifts in the anteroposterior (AP) and craniocaudal (CC) directions with respect to the digitized simulator films for lateral fields were analysed using an in-house developed portal image registration system. Statistically, no evidence was found to indicate that the systematic components of the displacement for the Uvex system and the Finesse Frame with Ultraplast System were different from each other or from zero. The random component of displacement was slightly smaller in the AP direction for the Uvex than the Ultraplast system (sigma = 1.9 mm and 2.9 mm, respectively, p = 0.007), but larger in the CC direction (sigma = 3.8 mm and 2.2 mm, respectively, p<10(-9)). Production time and required materials for a radiation therapy department were also quantified to assess costs for each system. The overall costs per patient were estimated at 141.50 dollars (CAD) and 82.10 dollars for the Uvex and Ultraplast systems, respectively. The Finesse Frame with Ultraplast System of immobilization for head and neck cancer treatment provides a field placement reproducibility that is equal to, or greater than, that of the Uvex plastic mask immobilization system and, while it requires more expensive materials, the workload and consequently overall cost is greatly reduced.

Virtual outreach: a randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation of joint teleconferenced medical consultations

OBJECTIVES

To test the hypotheses that virtual outreach would reduce offers of hospital follow-up appointments and reduce numbers of medical interventions and investigations, reduce numbers of contacts with the health care system, have a positive impact on patient satisfaction and enablement, and lead to improvements in patient health status. To perform an economic evaluation of virtual outreach.

DESIGN

A randomised controlled trial comparing joint teleconsultations between GPs, specialists and patients with standard outpatient referral. It was accompanied by an economic evaluation.

SETTING

The trial was centred on the Royal Free Hampstead NHS Trust, London, and the Royal Shrewsbury Hospital Trust in Shropshire. The project teams recruited and trained a total of 134 GPs from 29 practices and 20 consultant specialists.

PARTICIPANTS

In total, 3170 patients were referred, of whom 2094 consented to participate in the study and were eligible for inclusion. In all, 1051 patients were randomised to the virtual outreach group and 1043 to standard outpatient appointments. The patients were followed 6 months after their index consultation.

INTERVENTIONS

Patients randomised to virtual outreach underwent a joint teleconsultation, in which they attended the general practice surgery where they and their GP consulted with a hospital specialist via a videolink between the hospital and the practice.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Outcome measures included offers of follow-up outpatient appointments, numbers of tests, investigations, procedures, treatments and contacts with primary and secondary care, patient satisfaction (Ware Specific Visit Questionnaire), enablement (Patient Enablement Instrument) and quality of life (Short Form-12 and Child Health Questionnaire). An economic evaluation of the costs and consequences of the intervention was undertaken. Sensitivity analysis was used to test the robustness of the results.

RESULTS

Patients in the virtual outreach group were more likely to be offered a follow-up appointment. Significant differences in effects were observed between the two sites and across different specialities. Virtual outreach increased the offers of follow-up appointments more in Shrewsbury than in London, and more in ENT and orthopaedics than in the other specialities. Fewer tests and investigations were ordered in the virtual outreach group, by an average of 0.79 per patient. In the 6-month period following the index consultation, there were no significant differences overall in number of contacts with general practice, outpatient visits, accident and emergency contacts, inpatient stays, day surgery and inpatient procedures or prescriptions between the randomised groups. Tests of interaction indicated that virtual outreach decreased the number of tests and investigations, particularly in patients referred to gastroenterology, and increased the number of outpatient visits, particularly in those referred to orthopaedics. Patient satisfaction was greater after a virtual outreach consultation than after a standard outpatient consultation, with no heterogeneity between specialities or sites. However, patient enablement after the index consultation, and the physical and psychological scores of the Short Form-12 for adults and the scores on the Child Health Questionnaire for children under 16, did not differ between the randomised groups at 6 months' follow-up. NHS costs over 6 months were greater for the virtual outreach consultations than for conventional outpatients, pound 724 and pound 625 per patient, respectively. The index consultation accounted for this excess. Cost and time savings to patients were found. Estimated productivity losses were also less in the virtual outreach group.

CONCLUSIONS

Virtual outreach consultations result in significantly higher levels of patient satisfaction than standard outpatient appointments and lead to substantial reductions in numbers of tests and investigations, but they are variably associated with increased rates of offer of follow-up according to speciality and site. Changes in costs and technological advances may improve the relative position of virtual consultations in future. The extent to which virtual outreach is implemented will probably be dependent on factors such as patient demand, costs, and the attitudes of staff working in general practice and hospital settings. Further research could involve long-term follow-up of patients in the virtual outreach trial to determine downstream outcomes and costs; further study into the effectiveness and costs of virtual outreach used for follow-up appointments, rather than first-time referrals; and whether the costs of virtual outreach could be substantially reduced without adversely affecting the quality of the consultation if nurses or other members of the primary care team were to undertake the hosting of the joint teleconsultations in place of the GP. Qualitative work into the attitudes of the patients, GPs and hospital specialists would also be valuable.

Instability of the fragile X syndrome repeat in mice: the effect of age, diet and mutations in genes that affect DNA replication, recombination and repair proficiency

Repeat expansion diseases such as fragile X syndrome (FXS) result from increases in the size of a specific tandem repeat array. In addition to large expansions, small changes in repeat number and deletions are frequently seen in FXS pedigrees. No mouse model accurately recapitulates all aspects of this instability, particularly the occurrence of large expansions. This may be due to differences between mice and humans in CIS and/or TRANS-acting factors that affect repeat stability. The identification of such factors may help reveal the expansion mechanism and allow the development of suitable animal models for these disorders. We have examined the effect of age, dietary folate, and mutations in the Werner's syndrome helicase (WRN) and TRP53 genes on FXS repeat instability in mice. WRN facilitates replication of the FXS repeat and enhances Okazaki fragment processing, thereby reducing the incidence of processes that have been suggested to lead to expansion. p53 is a protein involved in DNA damage surveillance and repair. We find two types of repeat instability in these mice, small changes in repeat number that are seen at frequencies approaching 100%, and large deletions which occur at a frequency of about 10%. The frequency of these events was independent of WRN, p53, parental age, or folate levels. The large deletions occur at the same frequency in mice homozygous and heterozygous for the repeat suggesting that they are not the result of an interallelic recombination event. In addition, no evidence of large expansions was seen. Our data thus show that the absence of repeat expansions in mice is not due to a more efficient WRN protein or p53-mediated error correction mechanism, and suggest that these proteins, or the pathways in which they are active, may not be involved in expansion in humans either. Moreover, the fact that contractions occur in the absence of expansions suggests that these processes occur by different mechanisms.

Patients with small duct primary sclerosing cholangitis have a favourable long term prognosis

BACKGROUND

Patients with cholestatic liver function tests and histological features of primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) but a normal cholangiogram are considered to have small duct PSC. The natural history of this condition is unknown.

METHODS

Thirty three patients with small duct PSC were identified among patients admitted for diagnostic workup of cholestatic liver function tests in one centre in the UK (Oxford) and one centre in Norway (Oslo). A total of 260 patients with large duct PSC were compared, and prognosis in terms of death, cholangiocarcinoma, biochemical features, histological features, and symptoms analysed.

RESULTS

Mean age at diagnosis was 38 years and 39 years in small duct and large duct PSC, respectively. Mean follow up was 106 months in small duct and 105 months in large duct patients. Four patients originally considered to have small duct developed large duct PSC. Two of these underwent liver transplantation during follow up. Of the remainder who did not develop large duct PSC, two patients died during follow up: one of liver failure and the other of cardiac death unrelated to her liver disease. A total of 122 (47%) large duct patients either required liver transplantation (34 patients) or died (88 patients). Small duct patients had a significantly better survival compared with large duct patients. Among small duct patients, none developed cholangiocarcinoma compared with 28 of 260 (11%) large duct patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with small duct PSC seem to have a good prognosis in terms of survival and development of cholangiocarcinoma. Small duct PSC progresses to large duct PSC in a small proportion of patients.

Effects of risperidone on aberrant behavior of persons with developmental disabilities: I. A double-blind crossover study using multiple measures

The efficacy of the atypical antipsychotic risperidone was evaluated in the treatment of aberrant behavior (e.g., aggression, self-injury) in 20 individuals with developmental disabilities. A double-blind, crossover design was used to compare risperidone with placebo in a 22-week trial with a 6-month follow-up phase. Based on a 50% reduction in mean Aberrant Behavior Checklist--Community total scores, 50% of the participants were identified as responders. Naturalistic observations of a subset of five individuals showed that for 4 out of 5 participants, risperidone was effective in reducing aberrant behavior. Side effects included weight gain (84% of participants) and sedation (40% of participants). The advantages of conducting a comprehensive analysis of the effects of medication on aberrant behavior are discussed.

Clozapine enhances neurocognition and clinical symptomatology more than standard neuroleptics

Neurocognition and clinical symptomatology were evaluated in 27 patients with schizophrenia during a double-blind, placebo-controlled, cross-over study involving clozapine, an atypical antipsychotic agent, and haloperidol, a conventional neuroleptic. Patients were assessed 5 to 6 weeks after initiation of each phase. Clinical symptomatology, based on Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale and Scale for the Assessment of Negative Symptoms ratings, markedly improved after treatment with both haloperidol and clozapine. The beneficial effects of clozapine were statistically significantly greater than the effects from the haloperidol treatment. Regarding neurocognition, both agents proved efficacious in improving performance on nearly all measures compared with placebo. In addition, as compared with haloperidol, clozapine significantly improved performance on Trails B, Verbal Fluency, and measures of delayed verbal memory, and it tended to increase performance on most measures. Additional analyses indicated that the improvement on neurocognitive measures was not because of symptom amelioration; rather, neurocognitive deficits seem to be an intrinsic enduring feature of schizophrenia. The superiority of clozapine over haloperidol may be related to clozapine's unique psychopharmacologic profile.