Social network analysis reveals the failure of between-farm movement restrictions to reduce Salmonella transmission

An increasing number of countries are investigating options to stop the spread of the emerging zoonotic infection Salmonella (S.) Dublin, which mainly spreads among bovines and with cattle manure. Detailed surveillance and cattle movement data from an 11-year period in Denmark provided an opportunity to gain new knowledge for mitigation options through a combined social network and simulation modeling approach. The analysis revealed similar network trends for non-infected and infected cattle farms despite stringent cattle movement restrictions imposed on infected farms in the national control program. The strongest predictive factor for farms becoming infected was their cattle movement activities in the previous month, with twice the effect of local transmission. The simulation model indicated an endemic S. Dublin occurrence, with peaks in outbreak probabilities and sizes around observed cattle movement activities. Therefore, pre- and post-movement measures within a 1-mo time-window may help reduce S. Dublin spread.

Monitoring bovine dairy calf health and related risk factors in the first three months of rearing

BACKGROUND

Rearing replacement heifers is pivotal for the dairy industry and is associated with high input costs for the preweaned calves, due to their higher susceptibility to diseases. Ensuring calf health and viability calls for systematic approaches in order to mitigate the costs induced by managing sick calves and to ensure animal welfare. The objective of this study was to develop a systematic and feasible health-monitoring tool for bovine dairy calves based on repeated clinical observations and diagnostic results of calves at three time points; the 1st (T0), the 3rd (T1) and the 12th (T3) week of age. The study included observations from 77 dairy heifer calves in nine Danish commercial dairy herds. Immunisation status was assessed by serum Brix% at T0. Clinical scoring included gastrointestinal disease (GD) and respiratory disease (RD). The average daily weight gain (ADWG) was estimated from heart-girth measurements. Pathogen detection from nasal swabs and faecal samples were analysed for 16 respiratory and enteric pathogens by means of high-throughput real time-PCR. All measures obtained in each herd were visualised in a panel to follow the health status of each calf over time.

RESULTS

The individual clinical observations combined with diagnostic information from immunisation and pathogen detection form each enrolled calf are presented in a herd dashboard illustrating the health status over the study period. This monitoring revealed failure of passive transfer (Brix% < 8.1) in 31% of the 77 enrolled calves, signs of severe GD peaked at T0 with 20% affected calves, while signs of severe RD peaked at T2 with 42% affected calves. ADWG over the first eight weeks was estimated to be 760 g (± 190 g). Pathogen profiles varied between herds.

CONCLUSIONS

The large variation in both clinical disease and pathogen occurrence across herds emphasizes the need for herd specific monitoring. Combining the results of the present study from measures of immunisation, health and growth from individual calves in one visualisation panel allowed for the detection of patterns across age groups in the specific herds, showing promising potential for early detection and interventions that can lead to enhanced calf health and welfare.

Semi-Quantitative Biosecurity Assessment Framework Targeting Prevention of the Introduction and Establishment of Salmonella Dublin in Dairy Cattle Herds

An increasing average herd size and complexity in farm structures call for a higher level of biosecurity. It can reduce the risk of introducing and establishing pathogens with multiple-pathway and indirect spread mechanisms, such as Salmonella Dublin, a pathogen with an increasing occurrence in dairy cattle farms across different countries and continents. Therefore, this study aimed to use existing knowledge to develop a framework with a supporting tool allowing for a time-efficient, yet comprehensive, assessment of biosecurity measures that can help prevent the introduction and establishment of S. Dublin in dairy herds. Based on the literature review, a seven-step biosecurity assessment framework was developed and evaluated in collaboration with biosecurity experts. The resulting framework includes a weighted semi-quantitative assessment method with a scoring guide in an electronic supporting tool for 12 biosecurity sections assessed through on-farm observations and farmer interviews. The framework and tool provide a novel approach to comprehensively assess the overall (mainly external) on-farm biosecurity level by a trained biosecurity assessor. They can be used for systematic data collection in epidemiological studies on risk factors for the introduction and establishment of S. Dublin in dairy farms. Preliminary interrater reliability testing indicated moderate reliability between assessors with varying biosecurity skills.

Monitoring antimicrobial usage in companion animals: exploring the use of the Danish VetStat database

BACKGROUND

In the Danish Veterinary Statistics Program, VetStat, sales data on medicinal products prescribed for veterinary consumption is collected. The Danish Food and Veterinary Administration (DVFA) manages the database and each purchase contains detailed product-specific information linked with a species-specific ID. National surveillance systems are also implemented or being developed in the other European Union Member States. By 2029, all Member States are required to report data on antimicrobial usage for companion animals to the European Medicines Agency. This study aimed to assess the challenges encountered when using the VetStat database to quantify antimicrobial use in Danish companion animals. Raw VetStat data were propagated by the DVFA and originated from veterinary practitioners and Danish pharmacies.

RESULTS

Comprehensive estimates of antimicrobial use in Danish companion animals were not readily available due to database construct. Antimicrobials sold for use in companion animals (linked to a companion animal ID) comprised a large number of products licensed solely for horses or livestock, while data assigned a replacement code encompassed both topical and peroral antimicrobials licensed for companion animals. Additionally, antimicrobials sold from pharmacies to veterinary practitioners presented the biggest challenge in data retrieval and validation. Treatment data are only transferred to VetStat through the billing systems when Danish veterinarians are treating livestock, but not companion animals. Information on products sold for in-house use in companion animals is only available from pharmacy records without a species-specific ID. As a result, parenteral antimicrobials with multi-species authorization utilized by small animal veterinary practitioners are not accounted for in the overall estimate for companion animals.

CONCLUSIONS

Owing to the database structure and requirements for data entry, antimicrobial use in companion animals is an approximation. The actual consumption may be significantly higher than what is currently calculated from the database, as the majority of parenteral products are not included. Consumption data can be measured more accurately provided treatment data from veterinary practitioners in small or mixed practices are transferred to the database through the billing system. This would equal the legal requirements for Danish veterinary practitioners treating livestock.

Overview of Cattle Diseases Listed Under Category C, D or E in the Animal Health Law for Which Control Programmes Are in Place Within Europe

The COST action “Standardising output-based surveillance to control non-regulated diseases of cattle in the European Union (SOUND control),” aims to harmonise the results of surveillance and control programmes (CPs) for selected cattle diseases to facilitate safe trade and improve overall control of cattle infectious diseases. In this paper we aimed to provide an overview on the diversity of control for these diseases in Europe. A selected cattle disease was defined as an infectious disease of cattle with no or limited control at EU level, which is not included in the European Union Animal health law Categories A or B under Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2020/2002. A CP was defined as surveillance and/or intervention strategies designed to lower the incidence, prevalence, mortality or prove freedom from a specific disease in a region or country. Passive surveillance, and active surveillance of breeding bulls under Council Directive 88/407/EEC were not considered as CPs. A questionnaire was designed to obtain country-specific information about CPs for each disease. Animal health experts from 33 European countries completed the questionnaire. Overall, there are 23 diseases for which a CP exists in one or more of the countries studied. The diseases for which CPs exist in the highest number of countries are enzootic bovine leukosis, bluetongue, infectious bovine rhinotracheitis, bovine viral diarrhoea and anthrax (CPs reported by between 16 and 31 countries). Every participating country has on average, 6 CPs (min–max: 1–13) in place. Most programmes are implemented at a national level (86%) and are applied to both dairy and non-dairy cattle (75%). Approximately one-third of the CPs are voluntary, and the funding structure is divided between government and private resources. Countries that have eradicated diseases like enzootic bovine leukosis, bluetongue, infectious bovine rhinotracheitis and bovine viral diarrhoea have implemented CPs for other diseases to further improve the health status of cattle in their country. The control of the selected cattle diseases is very heterogenous in Europe. Therefore, the standardising of the outputs of these programmes to enable comparison represents a challenge.

Narrative Review Comparing Principles and Instruments Used in Three Active Surveillance and Control Programmes for Non-EU-regulated Diseases in the Danish Cattle Population

The objective of this paper is to provide a comparative review of three active surveillance and control programmes in the Danish cattle sector to highlight important differences for decision makers to develop successful programmes. The focus is on differences in purpose, principles, design and instruments applied to achieve the goals stated for each programme for bovine viral diarrhoea (BVDV), paratuberculosis and Salmonella Dublin. The purposes of the programmes are to reduce economic consequences and improve animal welfare, and for S. Dublin also to prevent zoonotic risk, with varying importance as motivation for the programmes over time. The targets of the BVDV and S. Dublin programmes have been to eradicate the diseases from the Danish cattle population. This goal was successfully reached for BVDV in 2006 where the programme was changed to a surveillance programme after 12 years with an active control programme. The S. Dublin dairy herd-level prevalence decreased from 25% in 2003 to 6% in 2015, just before the milk quota system was abandoned. Over the last 5 years, the prevalence has increased to 8–9% test-positive dairy herds. It is mandatory to participate, and frequent updates of legislative orders were used over two decades as critical instruments in those two programmes. In contrast, participation in the paratuberculosis programme is voluntary and the goals are to promote participation and reduce the prevalence and economic and welfare consequences of the disease. The daily administration of all three programmes is carried out by the major farmers' organisation, who organise surveillance, IT-solutions and other control tools, projects and communication in collaboration with researchers from the universities, laboratories and, for BVDV and S. Dublin, the veterinary authorities. Differences among the programme designs and instruments are mainly due to the environmental component of paratuberculosis and S. Dublin, as the bacteria able to survive for extended periods outside the host. This extra diffuse source of infection increases the demand for persistent and daily hygiene and management efforts. The lower test sensitivities (than for BVDV) lead to a requirement to perform repeated testing of herds and animals over longer time periods calling for withstanding motivation among farmers.

Field Experience of Antibody Testing against Mycoplasma bovis in Adult Cows in Commercial Danish Dairy Cattle Herds

Mycoplasma bovis in cattle is difficult to diagnose. Recently, the ID screen^® mycoplasma bovis indirect ELISA (ID screen) was commercially released by IDVet. The objectives of this study were to: (1) gain and share experience of using the ID screen in adult dairy cows under field conditions; (2) determine the correlation between antibody levels in milk and serum and (3) compare the ID screen results with those of the Bio K 302 (BioX 302) ELISA from BioX Diagnostics. Paired serum and milk samples were collected from 270 cows from 12 Danish dairy herds with three categories of M. bovis disease history. The ID screen tested nearly all cows positive in all, but the three non-infected herds, while the BioX 302 tested very few cows positive. The ID screen is therefore a much more sensitive test than the BioX 302. However, cows in five exposed herds without signs of ongoing infection and two herds with no history of M. bovis infection also tested ID screen positive. Therefore, the performance and interpretation of the test must be investigated under field conditions in best practice test evaluation setups. A concordance correlation coefficient of 0.66 (95% CI: 0.59–0.72) between the ID screen serum and milk results indicates that milk samples can replace serum samples for the ID screen diagnosis of M. bovis in adult cows.

Evaluating integrated surveillance of antimicrobial resistance: experiences from use of three evaluation tools

BACKGROUND

Integrated antimicrobial resistance (AMR) surveillance programmes require regular evaluation to ensure they are fit for purpose and that all actors understand their responsibilities. This will strengthen their relevance for the clinical setting, which depends heavily on continued access to effective treatment options. Several evaluation tools addressing different surveillance aspects are available.

OBJECTIVES

The aim was to understand the strengths and weaknesses of three evaluation tools, and to improve guidance on how to choose a fit-for-purpose tool.

SOURCES

Three tools were assessed: (a) AMR-PMP-the Progressive Management Pathway tool on AMR developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, (b) NEOH developed by the EU COST Action 'Network for Evaluation of One Health' and (c) SURVTOOLS developed in an FP7-EU project 'RISKSUR'. Each tool was assessed with regard to contents, required evaluation processes including stakeholder engagement and resource demands, integration coverage across relevant sectors and applicability. They were compared using a predefined scoring scheme and a strengths-weaknesses-opportunities-threats (SWOT)-like format for commenting.

CONTENT

All three tools address multiple decision-making levels and aspects of stakeholder engagement. NEOH focuses on system features, learning, sharing, leadership and infrastructure, and requires a description of the underlying system in which AMR develops. AMR-PMP focuses on four areas: awareness, evidence, governance and practices and assesses the implementation degree of pre-chosen aspects within these areas. This requires less of the evaluator, but warrants participation of multiple stakeholders. SURVTOOL provides information and references on how to evaluate effectiveness, process and comprehensiveness of surveillance programmes. All three tools require veterinary epidemiology expertise and varying levels of evaluation methodology training to use appropriately.

IMPLICATIONS

The tools covered AMR surveillance and One Health aspects to varying degrees. This study provides guidance on aspects to consider when choosing between available tools and embarking on an evaluation of integrated surveillance.

Opportunities for Improved Disease Surveillance and Control by Use of Integrated Data on Animal and Human Health

The global challenges and threats from infectious diseases including antimicrobial drug resistance and emerging infections due to the rapidly changing climate require that we continuously revisit the fitness of our infrastructure. The databases used for surveillance represent an important infrastructure. Historically, many databases have evolved from different needs and from different organizations. Despite growing data storage and computing capacities, data are, however, rarely used to their full potential. The objective of this review was to outline different data sources available in Denmark. We applied a one-health perspective and included data sources on animal demographics and movements, medicine prescription, diagnostic test results as well as relevant data on human health. Another objective was to suggest approaches for fit-for-purpose integration of data as a resource for risk assessment and generation of evidence for policies to protect animal and human health. Danish databases were reviewed according to a systematic procedure including ownership, intended purposes of the database, target and study populations, metrics and information used, measuring methods (observers, diagnostic tests), recording procedures, data flow, database structure, and control procedures to ensure data quality. Thereby, structural metadata were gathered across available Danish databases including animal health, zoonotic infections, antimicrobial use, and relevant administrative data that can support the overall aim of supporting risk assessment and development of evidence. Then illustrative cases were used to assess how combinations and integration of databases could improve existing evidence to support decisions in animal health policies (e.g., combination of information on diseases in different herds or regions with information on isolation of pathogens from humans). Due to the complexity of databases, full integration at the individual level is often not possible. Still, integration of data at a higher level (e.g., municipality or region) can provide important information on risks and hence risk management. We conclude by discussing how databases by linkage can be improved in the future, and emphasize that legal issues are important to address in order to optimize the use of the available data.

Additive Bayesian Network analysis of associations between antimicrobial consumption, biosecurity, vaccination and productivity in Danish sow herds

In modern livestock farming, there is an increasing understanding that antimicrobial (AM) consumption must be kept low - preferably without compromising animal welfare or productivity. This requires an understanding of the relationship between AM use, productivity, biosecurity, vaccination and herd demographics. To obtain this, we undertook an Additive Bayesian Network analysis using data from 2014 to 2015, covering 157 Danish sow herds with weaners. In general, productivity and biosecurity were high, and AM consumption low. No association was found between prescribed AM and productivity. Other variables, such as biosecurity and enrolment in the Danish Specific Pathogen Free (SPF) system, had stronger associations with sow productivity than AM consumption. In the weaner unit, an association between AM consumption and certain vaccination practices was found, suggesting that vaccines might be used to control preexisting problems. The results reveal that most Danish sow producers are able to maintain productivity while using low amounts of AMs. This conclusion must be interpreted within the context of Danish pig farming i.e. generally high biosecurity and many years of official restrictions aiming at reducing AM consumption.

Increased incidence rate of undesired early heifer departure in Mycoplasma bovis-antibody positive Danish dairy cattle herds

Mycoplasma bovis infections cause disease and production losses in cattle worldwide. The long-term consequences are not well described despite being important for management decisions during and after disease outbreaks. We investigated the association between M. bovis antibody-positivity and undesired early departure (UED, i.e. death, euthanasia or slaughter) before first calving in a cohort of 636 heifers from 36 Danish dairy herds with and without a history of M. bovis-associated disease. The herds were visited 4 times at 3-month intervals and blood samples from young stock and milk samples from lactating cows were collected. Poisson regression was performed to examine the association with UED as outcome, logarithmic transformation of risk time as offset and herd as a random effect. Individual antibody measurements and group-level variables representing the infection level among young stock and cows, age and mortality variables were included in the model. The incidence rate ratio of UED increased by 1.23 times for every 10% increase in M. bovis young stock seroprevalence, while the effect of individual antibody level was modified by age and influenced UED less. In conclusion, UED in heifers was associated with M. bovis antibody-positivity in young stock and should be controlled in dairy herds to reduce losses.

A register-based study on associations between vaccination, antimicrobial use and productivity in conventional Danish finisher pig herds during 2011 to 2014

Reduction of antimicrobial use (AMU) in pigs is a priority to counteract development of antimicrobial resistance in animal and human pathogens. However, there is concern that Danish pig producers complying with official AMU restrictions might experience reduced herd health and productivity in the future, if alternative strategies are not available. Vaccination has been suggested as a strategy to prevent disease and minimise the need for antimicrobial treatments. The aim of this register-based study was to assess the associations between data on vaccination, productivity and AMU in Danish finisher herds over a 4-year period following initiation of the Yellow Card, which is a restrictive AMU control scheme. For each of the years 2011 to 2014, sow herds were grouped according to purchase patterns regarding Porcine Circovirus Type 2 (PCV2) (use/no use). For the sow herds (N = 179-433), additional information of purchases of vaccines against Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae (MYC), Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae (APP), Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome virus (PRRS) and Lawsonia intracellularis (LAW) was included. By use of movement data, finisher herds receiving pigs from the sow herds were tracked and included in the analyses. Finisher herds (N = 40-62) with register data on productivity (i.e. average daily weight gain, feed conversion rate, mortality and lean meat percentage) and data on prescriptions of antimicrobials measured in Animal Daily Doses/100 finishers/day as well as the proportion of parenteral AMU treatments out of all treatments (AMU-ratio) were included. Univariable combinations were tested for statistically significant associations (P < 0.05) and included in multivariable linear mixed-effects model for each of the six outcome variables representing productivity (N=4) or AMU (N=2). Herd number was included as a random effect to account for the herds appearing more than once. The variables representing PCV2, enrolment in the Danish Specific Pathogen Free (SPF) system, year, herd type and herd size were included as potential confounders. Vaccination against PRRS and higher AMU for finishers were associated with increased lean meat percentage, potentially due to disease outbreaks resulting in reduced growth of the pigs and lower carcass weight at slaughter in herds with PRRS. None of the other types of vaccines was associated with any of the productivity outcomes. Vaccination against PCV2, PRRS and APP were associated with higher levels of AMU, and vaccination against LAW with a higher AMU-ratio. This may be explained as some farmers preferring to take action soon after observing disease problems. No association was found between vaccination against MYC and AMU. Herds enrolled in SPF had significantly higher average daily weight gain than non-SPF herds.

Expert opinion on livestock antimicrobial usage indications and patterns in Denmark, Portugal and Switzerland

We aimed at describing antimicrobial usage patterns throughout livestock production cycles, and comparing them across three countries from Northern, Central and Southern Europe. Given the difficulties to collect such detailed usage data, an expert opinion was deemed the most appropriate study design. This study provides new insights into the time periods and indications for which specific antimicrobial substances are used in different livestock sectors. Veterinary experts (n=67) from different livestock sectors (broilers, pigs, dairy cattle and veal/fattening calves) and countries (Denmark, Portugal and Switzerland) replied to a questionnaire focusing on the time periods in the production cycle when antimicrobial substances were administered, and the respective indications for treatment. Our results showed that for several antimicrobials, between-country and within-country variations exist regarding the temporal distributions of treatments and indications for use. These differences were also true for several critically important antimicrobials, which is a matter of concern. Furthermore, differences between countries were also evident regarding the antimicrobial substances licensed. Based on our results, it is recommended to establish and promote treatment guidelines, invest in the prevention of diseases during critical moments of the production cycle and target undifferentiated use of antimicrobials. Moreover, discrepancies between countries should be further investigated to better understand the factors underlying the identified patterns and to distinguish prudent from non-prudent use. The results can inform decision-making with the aim to foster antimicrobial prudent use in the veterinary setting and, therefore, protect public health from the threat of antimicrobial resistance.

Combining Salmonella Dublin genome information and contact-tracing to substantiate a new approach for improved detection of infectious transmission routes in cattle populations

This study presents a new method for detection of between-herd livestock movements to facilitate disease tracing and more accurately describe network behaviour of relevance for spread of infectious diseases, including within-livestock business risk-carrying contacts that are not necessarily recorded anywhere. The study introduces and substantiates the concept of grouping livestock herds into business-units based on ownership and location in the tracing analysis of animal movement-based contact networks. To test the utility of this approach, whole core genome sequencing of 196 Salmonella Dublin isolates stored from previous surveillance and project activities was combined with information on cattle movements recorded in the Danish Cattle Database between 1997 and 2017. The aim was to investigate alternative explanations for S. Dublin circulation in groups of herds connected by ownership, but without complete records of livestock movements. The EpiContactTrace R-package was used to trace the contact networks between businesses and compare the network characteristics of businesses sharing strains of S. Dublin with different levels of genetic relatedness. The ownership-only definition proved to be an unreliable grouping approach for large businesses, which could have internal distances larger than 250 km and therefore do not represent useful epidemiological units. Therefore, the grouping was refined using spatial analysis. More than 90% of final business units formed were composed of one single cattle property, whereas multi-property businesses could reach up to eight properties in a given year, with up to 15 cattle herds having been part of the same business through the study period. Results showed markedly higher probabilities of introduction of infectious animals between proposed businesses from which the same clone of S. Dublin had been isolated, when compared to businesses with non-related strains, thus substantiating the business-unit as an important epidemiological feature to consider in contact network analysis and tracing of infection routes. However, this approach may overestimate real-life contacts between cattle properties and putatively overestimate the degree of risk-contacts within each business, since it is based solely on information about property ownership and location. This does not consider administrative and individual farmers behaviours that essentially keep two properties separated. Despite this, we conclude that defining epidemiological units based on businesses is a promising approach for future disease tracing tasks.

European dog owner perceptions of obesity and factors associated with human and canine obesity

Obesity is a common nutrition-related disorder leading to reduced life expectancy in both humans and dogs. With the aim of identifying new prevention and control options, the study objectives were (1) to investigate dog-owner perceptions about obesity in terms of themselves and their dogs, and (2) to identify factors associated with obesity and possible social, environmental and economic drivers for its development in dog owners and their pets. A cross-sectional questionnaire-based study was performed across multiple countries. The questionnaire focused on human and canine obesity, associated factors and potential drivers, and was distributed online and in the form of hard copies among dog owners in 11 European countries. In total, 3,185 responses from ten countries were included in multivariable analyses. Between 19.1% and 48.8% of the dog owners reported to be overweight/obese. Owner-reported overweight/obesity in dogs ranged from 6.0% to 31.3% based on body condition score charts, and 31.8% to 69.4% based on body fat index charts. Common factors associated with obesity in owners and their dogs were age, gender and owners' attitudes to diet and physical activity. Dog owners who did not consider obesity to be a disease were more likely to have obese dogs.

Mycoplasma bovis antibody dynamics in naturally exposed dairy calves according to two diagnostic tests

BACKGROUND

Inexpensive and convenient diagnostic tests for use in clinical work and for the surveillance of infection with Mycoplasma bovis are in demand. The objective of this longitudinal field study was to gain knowledge about the dynamics of antibodies against M. bovis in sera from naturally exposed calves with and without different clinical signs, measured by two different ELISA tests.

RESULTS

A total of 83 calves were subject to between one and five blood samples and clinical examinations using a standard protocol during five herd visits to each of four outbreak dairy herds. The blood samples were analysed for the presence of antibodies against M. bovis using the commercial IgG ELISA test BioX K302 (BioX) and an in-house indirect IgG ELISA test (MilA ELISA). Linear mixed models were used to describe and compare the antibody dynamics as measured by the two tests in relation to the disease status and age of the animals. The BioX ELISA response was below the recommended cut-off (37 ODC%) for the entire study period in many of the calves. The estimated mean ODC% increased slowly but did not reach the recommended individual animal cut-off in three of the four herds. The highest estimated ODC% was not reached until the calf was 110-130 days old. The MilA ELISA response rose above the recommended cut-off (135 antibody units (AU)) in almost all calves, and in two herds, the estimated mean was above the individual animal cut-off shortly after the birth of the calf. The highest estimated antibody concentration was reached when the calf was approximately 60 days old. Disease status of the calf was not significantly associated with the results of either test.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that the BioX ELISA cannot be recommended for use in calves below 3 months of age. The MilA ELISA was able to detect antibodies shortly after birth (i.e. from approximately 3 weeks of age and onwards) and is therefore a more sensitive test for M. bovis exposure in young calves. Neither ELISA seemed able to differentiate between calves with arthritis and/or otitis media, and respiratory disease.

Herd typologies based on multivariate analysis of biosecurity, productivity, antimicrobial and vaccine use data from Danish sow herds

The use of antimicrobials in livestock constitutes an increasing global concern, and many countries pursue approaches to reduce the amount used, particularly in the pig production industry. The EU Commission has decided, due to environmental concerns, to phase out use of zinc oxide in pigs by 2022. This poses an additional challenge to efforts to reduce antimicrobial use (AMU) in European pig production. The pig production sector needs further information about how to comply with official AMU requirements without losing competitiveness. The most efficient approaches are likely to involve a combination of multiple factors. Therefore, the objective of this study was to explore multidimensional associations between biosecurity, productivity, vaccination and AMU. A cross sectional study was conducted using data from 160 Danish sow herds in 2014-2015. Biosecurity data were collected through computer-assisted telephone interviews using a pre-developed questionnaire (Biocheck.UGent®) supplemented with additional country-specific questions and translated into Danish. Herd-specific data, consisting of antimicrobial prescriptions, purchase of vaccines against five endemic infections, herd health status and one productivity measure (i.e. number of weaned piglets per sow per year) were extracted from various databases. Factor analysis was conducted on a subset of the data from 152 herds with sufficiently complete data. The identified factors were explained by evaluating data from herds with extreme loadings on the respective factor. The results were further discussed based on plots combining herd factor loadings on two factors at a time. Four factors were selected based on the break-point in the scree-plot. Factor 1 included herd type, herd size, and age of farm buildings. Factor 2 covered general biosecurity, including several internal and external biosecurity measures. Factor 3 represented preventive measures implying specific focus on avoiding introduction of ASF by foreign employees. Lastly, Factor 4 covered vaccination status, specifically regarding vaccination against Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae and Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome virus. These factors were used to group the 152 sow herds into herd typologies. Feasible strategies aimed at improving health by reducing AMU without hampering animal welfare were identified and discussed for each typology. AMU and productivity correlated only weakly with other variables. This is probably due to limited variability in both these variables in study herds, which might be attributed to official restrictions on AMU, and a general high level of health and biosecurity in Danish sow herds.

A Systems Approach to Evaluate One Health Initiatives

Challenges calling for integrated approaches to health, such as the One Health (OH) approach, typically arise from the intertwined spheres of humans, animals, and ecosystems constituting their environment. Initiatives addressing such wicked problems commonly consist of complex structures and dynamics. As a result of the EU COST Action (TD 1404) "Network for Evaluation of One Health" (NEOH), we propose an evaluation framework anchored in systems theory to address the intrinsic complexity of OH initiatives and regard them as subsystems of the context within which they operate. Typically, they intend to influence a system with a view to improve human, animal, and environmental health. The NEOH evaluation framework consists of four overarching elements, namely: (1) the definition of the initiative and its context, (2) the description of the theory of change with an assessment of expected and unexpected outcomes, (3) the process evaluation of operational and supporting infrastructures (the "OH-ness"), and (4) an assessment of the association(s) between the process evaluation and the outcomes produced. It relies on a mixed methods approach by combining a descriptive and qualitative assessment with a semi-quantitative scoring for the evaluation of the degree and structural balance of "OH-ness" (summarised in an OH-index and OH-ratio, respectively) and conventional metrics for different outcomes in a multi-criteria-decision-analysis. Here, we focus on the methodology for Elements (1) and (3) including ready-to-use Microsoft Excel spreadsheets for the assessment of the "OH-ness". We also provide an overview of Element (2), and refer to the NEOH handbook for further details, also regarding Element (4) (http://neoh.onehealthglobal.net). The presented approach helps researchers, practitioners, and evaluators to conceptualise and conduct evaluations of integrated approaches to health and facilitates comparison and learning across different OH activities thereby facilitating decisions on resource allocation. The application of the framework has been described in eight case studies in the same Frontiers research topic and provides first data on OH-index and OH-ratio, which is an important step towards their validation and the creation of a dataset for future benchmarking, and to demonstrate under which circumstances OH initiatives provide added value compared to disciplinary or conventional health initiatives.

Review of transmission routes of 24 infectious diseases preventable by biosecurity measures and comparison of the implementation of these measures in pig herds in six European countries

This study aimed to review the transmission routes of important infectious pig diseases and to translate these into biosecurity measures preventing or reducing the transmission between and within pig herds. Furthermore, it aimed to identify the level of implementation of these measures in different European countries and discuss the observed variations to identify potentials for improvement. First, a literature review was performed to show which direct and indirect transmission routes of 24 infectious pig diseases can be prevented through different biosecurity measures. Second, a quantitative analysis was performed using the Biocheck.UGent™, a risk-based scoring system to evaluate biosecurity in pig herds, to obtain an insight into the implementation of these biosecurity measures. The database contained farm-specific biosecurity data from 574 pig farms in Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden, entered between January 2014 and January 2016. Third, a qualitative analysis based on a review of literature and other relevant information resources was performed for every subcategory of internal and external biosecurity in the Biocheck.UGent™ questionnaire. The quantitative analysis indicated that at the level of internal, external and overall biosecurity, Denmark had a significantly distinct profile with higher external biosecurity scores and less variation than the rest of the countries. This is likely due to a widely used specific pathogen-free (SPF) system with extensive focus on biosecurity since 1971 in Denmark. However, the observed pattern may also be attributed to differences in data collection methods. The qualitative analysis identified differences in applied policies, legislation, disease status, pig farm density, farming culture and habits between countries that can be used for shaping country-specific biosecurity advice to attain improved prevention and control of important pig diseases in European pig farms.

Methods and processes of developing the strengthening the reporting of observational studies in epidemiology - veterinary (STROBE-Vet) statement

BACKGROUND

The reporting of observational studies in veterinary research presents many challenges that often are not adequately addressed in published reporting guidelines.

OBJECTIVE

To develop an extension of the STROBE (Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) statement that addresses unique reporting requirements for observational studies in veterinary medicine related to health, production, welfare, and food safety.

DESIGN

A consensus meeting of experts was organized to develop an extension of the STROBE statement to address observational studies in veterinary medicine with respect to animal health, animal production, animal welfare, and food safety outcomes.

SETTING

Consensus meeting May 11-13, 2014 in Mississauga, Ontario, Canada.

PARTICIPANTS

Seventeen experts from North America, Europe, and Australia attended the meeting. The experts were epidemiologists and biostatisticians, many of whom hold or have held editorial positions with relevant journals.

METHODS

Prior to the meeting, 19 experts completed a survey about whether they felt any of the 22 items of the STROBE statement should be modified and if items should be added to address unique issues related to observational studies in animal species with health, production, welfare, or food safety outcomes. At the meeting, the participants were provided with the survey responses and relevant literature concerning the reporting of veterinary observational studies. During the meeting, each STROBE item was discussed to determine whether or not re-wording was recommended, and whether additions were warranted. Anonymous voting was used to determine whether there was consensus for each item change or addition.

RESULTS

The consensus was that six items needed no modifications or additions. Modifications or additions were made to the STROBE items numbered: 1 (title and abstract), 3 (objectives), 5 (setting), 6 (participants), 7 (variables), 8 (data sources/measurement), 9 (bias), 10 (study size), 12 (statistical methods), 13 (participants), 14 (descriptive data), 15 (outcome data), 16 (main results), 17 (other analyses), 19 (limitations), and 22 (funding).

LIMITATION

Published literature was not always available to support modification to, or inclusion of, an item.

CONCLUSION

The methods and processes used in the development of this statement were similar to those used for other extensions of the STROBE statement. The use of this extension to the STROBE statement should improve the reporting of observational studies in veterinary research related to animal health, production, welfare, or food safety outcomes by recognizing the unique features of observational studies involving food-producing and companion animals, products of animal origin, aquaculture, and wildlife.

Inter-rater agreement in visual assessment of footpad dermatitis in Danish broiler chickens

1. The performance of the scoring in the Danish footpad dermatitis (FPD) surveillance system was evaluated by determining inter-rater agreement in visual inspection of FPD in broilers between two independent raters (R1 and R2) and the official scoring at a Danish slaughterhouse. 2. FPD scores were evaluated in 1599 chicken feet. The two raters and the slaughterhouse scored equal proportions of score 0. So did R1 and R2 when assessing score 1 and the more severe lesion score 2, whereas the slaughterhouse scored a markedly higher proportion of score 1 and a lower proportion of score 2. Aggregated FPD flock scores ranged from 5 to 163 (R1 and R2) and from 8 to 107 (slaughterhouse). 3. The level of agreement between the two raters was high for scores 0, 1 and 2 and for flock scores. Agreement between raters and the slaughterhouse was lower when R1 and R2 recorded score 2 than when they recorded scores 0 and 1. 4. This study indicates that the occurrence and severity of lesions are underestimated in the official Danish FPD scoring system.

A Blueprint to Evaluate One Health

One Health (OH) positions health professionals as agents for change and provides a platform to manage determinants of health that are often not comprehensively captured in medicine or public health alone. However, due to the organization of societies and disciplines, and the sectoral allocation of resources, the development of transdisciplinary approaches requires effort and perseverance. Therefore, there is a need to provide evidence on the added value of OH for governments, researchers, funding bodies, and stakeholders. This paper outlines a conceptual framework of what OH approaches can encompass and the added values they can provide. The framework was developed during a workshop conducted by the “Network for Evaluation of One Health,” an Action funded by the European Cooperation in Science and Technology. By systematically describing the various aspects of OH, we provide the basis for measuring and monitoring the integration of disciplines, sectors, and stakeholders in health initiatives. The framework identifies the social, economic, and environmental drivers leading to integrated approaches to health and illustrates how these evoke characteristic OH operations, i.e., thinking, planning, and working, and require supporting infrastructures to allow learning, sharing, and systemic organization. It also describes the OH outcomes (i.e., sustainability, health and welfare, interspecies equity and stewardship, effectiveness, and efficiency), which are not possible to obtain through sectoral approaches alone, and their alignment with aspects of sustainable development based on society, environment, and economy.

No Clear Effect of Initiating Vaccination against Common Endemic Infections on the Amounts of Prescribed Antimicrobials for Danish Weaner and Finishing Pigs during 2007-2013

It is often stated that vaccines may help reduce antimicrobial use in swine production. However, limited evidence is available outside clinical trials. We studied the change in amounts of antimicrobials prescribed for weaners and finishers in herds following initiation of vaccination against five common endemic infections: Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae, Actinobacillus pleuropneumoniae, porcine circovirus type II, porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus, and Lawsonia intracellularis. Comparison was made to the change after a randomly selected date in herds not vaccinating against each of the infections. Danish sow herds initiating vaccination during 2007-2013 were included (69-334 herds, depending on the analysis). Danish sow herds with no use of the vaccine in question were included as non-exposed herds (130-570 herds, depending on the analysis). Antimicrobial prescriptions for weaners in sow herds and for finishers in receiving herds were extracted from the VetStat database for a period of 12 months before and 6-18 months after the first purchase of vaccine, or random date and quantified as average animal daily doses (ADDs) per 100 animals per day. The herd-level difference between ADD in the period after and before vaccination was the outcome in linear regression models for weaner pigs, and linear mixed-effects models for finishing pigs, taking into account sow herds delivering pigs to two or more finisher herds. Three plausible risk factors (Baseline ADD, purchase of specific vaccine, purchase of other vaccines) and five confounders (herd size, export and herd health status, year and season) were initially considered in all 10 models. The main significant effect in all models was the Baseline ADD; the higher the Baseline ADD was for weaner and finishing pigs, the larger the decrease in ADD was following vaccination (or random date for non-vaccinating herds). Regardless of vaccination status, almost equal proportions of herds experienced a decrease and an increase in ADD resulting in no overall Change in ADD. Furthermore, only minor effects were found, when vaccinations were used in combination. In conclusion, this study provided little support for the hypothesis that vaccination against five common endemic diseases provides a plausible general strategy to reduce antimicrobial use in Danish pig herds.

Methods and Processes of Developing the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology-Veterinary (STROBE-Vet) Statement

Reporting of observational studies in veterinary research presents challenges that often are not addressed in published reporting guidelines. Our objective was to develop an extension of the STROBE (Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) statement that addresses unique reporting requirements for observational studies in veterinary medicine related to health, production, welfare, and food safety. We conducted a consensus meeting with 17 experts in Mississauga, Canada. Experts completed a premeeting survey about whether items in the STROBE statement should be modified or added to address unique issues related to observational studies in animal species with health, production, welfare, or food safety outcomes. During the meeting, each STROBE item was discussed to determine whether or not rewording was recommended, and whether additions were warranted. Anonymous voting was used to determine consensus. Six items required no modifications or additions. Modifications or additions were made to the STROBE items 1 (title and abstract), 3 (objectives), 5 (setting), 6 (participants), 7 (variables), 8 (data sources and measurement), 9 (bias), 10 (study size), 12 (statistical methods), 13 (participants), 14 (descriptive data), 15 (outcome data), 16 (main results), 17 (other analyses), 19 (limitations), and 22 (funding). The methods and processes used were similar to those used for other extensions of the STROBE statement. The use of this STROBE statement extension should improve reporting of observational studies in veterinary research by recognizing unique features of observational studies involving food-producing and companion animals, products of animal origin, aquaculture, and wildlife.

Explanation and Elaboration Document for the STROBE-Vet Statement: Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology-Veterinary Extension

The STROBE (Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) statement was first published in 2007 and again in 2014. The purpose of the original STROBE was to provide guidance for authors, reviewers, and editors to improve the comprehensiveness of reporting; however, STROBE has a unique focus on observational studies. Although much of the guidance provided by the original STROBE document is directly applicable, it was deemed useful to map those statements to veterinary concepts, provide veterinary examples, and highlight unique aspects of reporting in veterinary observational studies. Here, we present the examples and explanations for the checklist items included in the STROBE-Vet statement. Thus, this is a companion document to the STROBE-Vet statement methods and process document (JVIM_14575 "Methods and Processes of Developing the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology-Veterinary (STROBE-Vet) Statement" undergoing proofing), which describes the checklist and how it was developed.

Methods and Processes of Developing the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology - Veterinary (STROBE-Vet) Statement

Background

Reporting of observational studies in veterinary research presents challenges that often are not addressed in published reporting guidelines.

Objective

To develop an extension of the STROBE (Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) statement that addresses unique reporting requirements for observational studies in veterinary medicine related to health, production, welfare, and food safety.

Design

Consensus meeting of experts.

Setting

Mississauga, Canada.

Participants

Seventeen experts from North America, Europe, and Australia.

Methods

Experts completed a pre‐meeting survey about whether items in the STROBE statement should be modified or added to address unique issues related to observational studies in animal species with health, production, welfare, or food safety outcomes. During the meeting, each STROBE item was discussed to determine whether or not rewording was recommended and whether additions were warranted. Anonymous voting was used to determine consensus.

Results

Six items required no modifications or additions. Modifications or additions were made to the STROBE items 1 (title and abstract), 3 (objectives), 5 (setting), 6 (participants), 7 (variables), 8 (data sources/measurement), 9 (bias), 10 (study size), 12 (statistical methods), 13 (participants), 14 (descriptive data), 15 (outcome data), 16 (main results), 17 (other analyses), 19 (limitations), and 22 (funding).

Conclusion

The methods and processes used were similar to those used for other extensions of the STROBE statement. The use of this STROBE statement extension should improve reporting of observational studies in veterinary research by recognizing unique features of observational studies involving food‐producing and companion animals, products of animal origin, aquaculture, and wildlife.

Comparison of the antimicrobial consumption in weaning pigs in Danish sow herds with different vaccine purchase patterns during 2013

BACKGROUND

There is growing concern about development of antimicrobial resistance due to use of antimicrobials (AMs) in livestock production. Identifying efficient alternatives, including vaccination, is a priority. The objective of this study was to compare the herd-level amount of AMs prescribed for weaner pigs, between Danish sow herds using varying combinations of vaccines against Porcine Circovirus Type 2 (PCV2), Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae (MYC) and Lawsonia intracellularis (LAW). It was hypothesised that herds purchasing vaccines, use these to prevent disease, and hence reduce their AM consumption, compared to herds purchasing fewer or no vaccines against these pathogens. Data summarised over year 2013 were obtained from the Danish Central Husbandry Register and the Danish VetStat database, in which prescriptions of medication are recorded. All one-site indoor pig herds with >50 sows and >200 weaners were selected. AMs prescribed for weaners was measured in animal daily doses (ADD) and divided according to three indication groups (gastro-intestinal, respiratory indication or total use). The analysis was based on three multivariable linear regression models of the herd-level ADD for each indication group. The eight vaccination combinations (2x2x2) were included as one explanatory variable, and herd size, measured as the number of weaner pen places was included in the models as a potential confounder.

RESULTS

Out of the 1513 herds in the study, 1415 had AMs prescribed for gastro-intestinal disorders, and 836 for respiratory disorders. PCV2 vaccines were purchased in 880 herds, MYC vaccines in 787 and LAW vaccines in 115 herds. Herds purchasing PCV2 and MYC vaccines had significantly more AMs prescribed than herds not purchasing vaccines or only purchasing LAW vaccines.

CONCLUSION

In the present study, using register data covering 1 year, we found an association between use of vaccination and increased amount of AMs prescribed for weaners. This does not exclude that the vaccines work, just that we were unable to detect this. The findings might be explained by some herds experiencing clinical problems associated with MYC or PCV2 despite use of vaccination. In other herds, it might reflect that vaccines applied to weaners are used for disease prevention in finishers rather than in the weaners. Information about vaccination protocols and herd health status was not available at the time of the study. Hence, further studies are required to investigate causality of the associations between use of AMs, vaccination practices and other confounding on-farm factors.

A space-time analysis of Mycoplasma bovis: bulk tank milk antibody screening results from all Danish dairy herds in 2013-2014

BACKGROUND

Mycoplasma bovis is an important pathogen causing severe disease outbreaks in cattle farms. Since 2011, there has been an apparent increase in M. bovis outbreaks among Danish dairy cattle herds. The dairy cattle industry performed cross-sectional antibody screening for M. bovis on four occasions, using the indirect BIO K 302 M. bovis enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) (Bio-X, Belgium) in bulk tank milk from all dairy herds between June 2013 and July 2014. The objective of this study was to investigate the evolution of the spatial distribution of M. bovis in the Danish dairy herd population throughout the study period. Repeated bulk tank milk samples were used as a proxy for the herd-level diagnosis. Descriptive and spatial analyses were performed for the four screening rounds. Based on a previous diagnostic test evaluation study, the M. bovis status for each herd was determined as test-positive or test-negative using a cut-off of 50 optical density coefficient %. The spatial global clustering was evaluated through a modified K-function method, and local clusters were identified by scan statistics.

RESULTS

The results showed that M. bovis test-positive herds had a dynamic pattern in space. The global clustering analysis showed that M. bovis test-positive herds were spatially correlated in rounds one, three and four. These findings were supported to some extent by the local clustering analysis, which found significant high- and low-risk spatial clusters in rounds one and three in the north and south of the mainland.

CONCLUSION

The clusters with a high risk of observing test-positive herds did not remain between sampling rounds, indicating that M. bovis did not tend to persist upon emergence in dairy herds. In contrast, the clusters with a low risk of observing test-positive herds persisted in the same area throughout the study period.

Assessment of the probability of introducing Mycobacterium tuberculosis into Danish cattle herds

Tuberculosis is a zoonosis caused by Mycobacterium spp. International trade in cattle is regulated with respect to Mycobacterium bovis (M. bovis) but not Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tuberculosis), despite that cattle can become infected with both species. In this study we estimated the annual probability (PIntro) of introducing M. tuberculosis into the Danish cattle population, by the import of cattle and/or by immigrants working in Danish cattle herds. Data from 2013 with date, number, and origin of imported live cattle were obtained from the Danish cattle database. Information on immigrants working in Danish cattle herds was obtained through a questionnaire sent to Danish cattle farmers. The gained inputs were fed into three stochastic scenario trees to assess the PIntro for the current and alternative test-and-manage strategies, such as testing of imported animals and/or testing immigrant workers with the tuberculin skin test. We considered the population of Danish farmers and practitioners free of tuberculosis, because in Denmark, the incidence of the disease in humans is low and primarily related to immigrants and socially disadvantaged people. The median annual probability of introducing M. tuberculosis into the Danish cattle population due to imported live cattle was 0.008% (90% P.I.: 0.0007%; 0.03%), while the probability due to immigrant workers was 4.1% (90% P.I.: 0.8%; 12.1%). The median combined probability (PIntro) due to imported cattle plus workers was 4.1% (90% P.I.: 0.8%; 12.6%). Hence, on average at least one introduction each 24 (90% P.I.: 8; 125) years could be expected. Imported live cattle appeared to play a marginal role on the overall annual PIntro, because they represented only approximately 0.2% of the median annual probability. By testing immigrant workers the overall annual PIntro could be reduced to 0.2% (90% P.I.: 0.04%; 0.7%). Thus, testing of immigrant workers could be considered as a risk mitigation strategy to markedly reduce the likelihood of introducing M. tuberculosis into the Danish cattle population, if the risk is considered unacceptable by the veterinary public health authorities.

Latent class analysis of bulk tank milk PCR and ELISA testing for herd level diagnosis of Mycoplasma bovis

The bacterium Mycoplasma bovis causes disease in cattle of all ages. An apparent increase in the occurrence of M. bovis associated outbreaks among Danish dairy cattle herds since 2011 has prompted a need for knowledge regarding herd-level diagnostic performance. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the herd-level diagnostic performance of an indirect ELISA test by comparison to a real-time PCR test when diagnosing M. bovis in cattle herds of bulk tank milk. Bulk tank milk samples from Danish dairy herds (N=3437) were analysed with both the antibody detecting BIO K 302 M. bovis ELISA kit and the antigen detecting PathoProof Mastitis Major-3 kit. As none of these are considered a gold standard test for herd-level diagnostics we applied a series of Bayesian latent class analyses for a range of ELISA cut-off values. The negative and positive predictive values were calculated for hypothetical true national prevalences (1, 5, 10, 15 and 20%) of infected herds. We estimated that the ELISA test had a median sensitivity and specificity of 60.4 [37.5-96.2 95% Posterior Credibility Interval] and 97.3 [94.0-99.8 95% PCI] at the currently recommended cut-off (37% Optical density Coefficient). These changed to 43.5 [21.1-92.5 95% PCI] and 99.6 [98.8-100 95% PCI] if the cut-off was increased to 50 ODC%. In addition, herd-level diagnosis by ELISA would result in fewer false positives at a cut-off value of 50 ODC% compared to 37 ODC% without compromising the negative predictive value.

Assessment of the probability of introduction of bovine tuberculosis to Danish cattle farms via imports of live cattle from abroad and immigrant workers

Denmark has been recognized as officially free (OTF) from bovine tuberculosis (bTB) since 1980. In this study, we estimated the annual probability (PIntro) of introducing Mycobacterium bovis into the Danish cattle population, through (a) imports of cattle and (b) foreign personnel working in Danish cattle herds. Data from 2000 to 2013 with date, number and origin of imported live cattle were obtained from the Danish Cattle Federation. Information on immigrants working in Danish cattle herds was obtained through a questionnaire sent by email to a sample of Danish cattle farmers (N=460). Inputs obtained from data analysis, expert opinion, the questionnaire and literature were fed into three stochastic scenario tree models used to simulate the effect of import trade patterns, and contact between immigrant workers and cattle. We also investigated the opportunity of testing animals imported from OTF countries by tuberculin skin test and animals from non-OTF countries by interferon-γ test (IFN-γ), exemplified by using year 2009 where the number of imported animals was higher than usual. Results showed that PIntro is driven mainly by importation of live cattle. The combined median annual probability of introducing M. bovis into the Danish cattle population by either imported live cattle or infectious immigrant workers, ranged from 0.3% (90% prediction interval (P.I.): 0.04%:1.4%) in 2001 to 4.9% (90% P.I.: 0.6%; 19.2%) in 2009. The median of the median PIntro estimates from the 14 years was 0.7% (median of 90% P.I.: 0.08%; 3.5%). Hence, on average, at least one introduction each 143 years could be expected, if the annual number of imported animals does not change remarkably in the future. If the number of imported animals increases, compared to the years we analyzed, additional testing of imported cattle might be considered. For example, in 2009, PIntro would have been reduced from 4.9% to 0.8% (90% P.I.: 0.1%; 4.7%) if animals from OTF countries had been tested with the tuberculin skin test and animals from non-OTF countries had been tested with the IFN-γ test. The presented model could be used easily in other countries with similar bTB status to Denmark, where wildlife represents a negligible probability of infection for domestic cattle and where the imported live cattle represent the main pathway of bTB introduction into the local cattle population.

Comparison of output-based approaches used to substantiate bovine tuberculosis free status in Danish cattle herds

We compared two published studies based on different output-based surveillance models, which were used for evaluating the performance of two meat inspection systems in cattle and to substantiate freedom from bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in Denmark. The systems were the current meat inspection methods (CMI) vs. the visual-only inspection (VOI). In one study, the surveillance system sensitivity (SSe) was estimated to substantiate the bTB free status. The other study used SSe in the estimation of the probability of freedom (PFree), based on the epidemiological concept of negative predictive value to substantiate the bTB free status. Both studies found that changing from CMI to VOI would markedly decrease the SSe. However, the two studies reported diverging conclusions regarding the effect on the substantiation of Denmark as a bTB free country, if VOI were to be introduced. The objectives of this work were: (a) to investigate the reasons why conclusions based on the two models differed, and (b) to create a hybrid model based on elements from both studies to evaluate the impact of a change from CMI to VOI. The hybrid model was based on the PFree approach to substantiate freedom from bTB and was parametrized with inputs according to the newest available information. The PFree was updated on an annual basis for each of 42 years of test-negative surveillance data (1995-2037), while assuming a low (<1%) annual probability of introduction of bTB into Danish cattle herds. The most important reasons for the difference between the study conclusions were: the approach chosen to substantiate the bTB free status (SSe vs. PFree) and the number of years of surveillance data considered. With the hybrid model, the PFree reached a level >95% after the first year of surveillance and remained ≥96% with both the CMI and VOI systems until the end of the analyzed period. It is appropriate to use the PFree of the surveillance system to substantiate confidence in bTB free status, when test-negative surveillance results can be documented over an extended period of time, while maintaining a low probability of introduction of bTB into the cattle population. For Denmark, the probability of introduction of bTB should be kept <1% on an annual basis to sustain the high confidence in freedom over time. The results could be considered when deciding if the CMI can be replaced by VOI in cattle abattoirs of countries for which bTB freedom can be demonstrated.

Dynamic changes in antibody levels as an early warning of Salmonella Dublin in bovine dairy herds

Salmonella Dublin is a bacterium that causes disease and production losses in cattle herds. In Denmark, a surveillance and control program was initiated in 2002 to monitor and reduce the prevalence of Salmonella Dublin. In dairy herds, the surveillance includes herd classification based on bulk tank milk measurements of antibodies directed against Salmonella Dublin at 3-mo intervals. In this study, an "alarm herd" concept, based on the dynamic progression of these repeated measurements, was formulated such that it contains predictive power for Salmonella Dublin herd classification change from "likely free of infection" to "likely infected" in the following quarter of the year, thus warning the farmer 3 mo earlier than the present system. The alarm herd concept was defined through aberrations from a stable development over time of antibody levels. For suitable parameter choices, alarm herd status was a positive predictor for Salmonella Dublin status change in dairy herds, in that alarm herds had a higher risk of changing status in the following quarter compared with nonalarm herds. This was despite the fact that both alarm and nonalarm herds had antibody levels that did not indicate the herds being "likely infected" according to the existing classification system in the present quarter. The alarm herd concept can be used as a new early warning element in the existing surveillance program. Additionally, to improve accuracy of herd classification, the alarm herd concept could be incorporated into a model including other known risk factors for change in herd classification. Furthermore, the model could be extended to other diseases monitored in similar ways.

Time-to-event analysis of predictors for recovery from Salmonella Dublin infection in Danish dairy herds between 2002 and 2012

Salmonella Dublin infections reduce gross margins and compromise animal health and welfare in dairy cattle herds. Despite on-going control efforts in several countries the duration and risk factors of a persistent infection have been difficult to study due to a lack of suitable data. This study utilised the unique opportunity to extract systematically collected repeated bulk-tank milk antibody measurements from all the Danish dairy herds during a 10-year period to perform a time-to-event analysis of the factors that affect the duration of test-positivity and the hazards of recovery from S. Dublin at herd level. Recovery was defined as a shift from test-positive to test-negative between two year-quarters followed by at least three more test-negative year-quarters. The average duration of infection was approximately 2 years. Predictors of recovery were tested in a multivariable Cox proportional hazard model allowing herds to recover from infection multiple times over the 10-year surveillance period. The model results were based on 36,429 observations with data on all the predictors, representing 3563 herds with a total of 3246 recoveries. Sixty-seven herds (2.4%) remained test-positive throughout the study period. The rest of the 317 herds that did not have any recoveries were censored, mainly due to a cessation of milk production. Prior recovery from test-positivity turned out not to be a significant predictor of recovery in the model. The effect of the duration of infection on the conditional probability of recovery (i.e. the hazard) was time-dependent: early in the study period, long durations of infection were predictive of a low hazard of recovery. Later in the control programme the effect of duration of infection was reduced indicating a desired effect of an intensified control programme. There was an increasing tendency towards longer durations and lower hazard of recovery with: (i) increasing herd sizes, (ii) increasing bulk-tank milk somatic cell counts, (iii) increasing local prevalence within a 5 km radius, (iv) organic farming and (v) recent purchase of cattle from test-positive herds. Participation in a voluntary paratuberculosis control programme reduced the duration of infection, and there were indications that recovery from S. Dublin infection was stimulated by a centrally organised and targeted control campaign. This is the first large-scale study that investigated duration of infection and predictors of recovery from S. Dublin in cattle herds over an extended period of time. The results provide useful knowledge for the design of control programmes for S. Dublin.

Evaluation of milk yield losses associated with Salmonella antibodies in bulk tank milk in bovine dairy herds

The effect of Salmonella on milk production is not well established in cattle. The objective of this study was to investigate whether introduction of Salmonella into dairy cattle herds was associated with reduced milk yield and determine the duration of any such effect. Longitudinal data from 2005 through 2009 were used, with data from 12 mo before until 18 mo after the estimated date of infection. Twenty-eight case herds were selected based on an increase in the level of Salmonella-specific antibodies in bulk-tank milk from <10 corrected optical density percentage (ODC%) to ≥70 ODC% between 2 consecutive three-monthly measurements in the Danish Salmonella surveillance program. All selected case herds were conventional Danish Holstein herds. Control herds (n=40) were selected randomly from Danish Holstein herds with Salmonella antibody levels consistently <10 ODC%. A date of herd infection was randomly allocated to the control herds. Hierarchical mixed effect models with the outcome test-day yield of energy-corrected milk (ECM)/cow were used to investigate daily milk yield before and after the estimated herd infection date for cows in parities 1, 2, and 3+. Control herds were used to evaluate whether the effects in the case herds could be reproduced in herds without Salmonella infection. Herd size, days in milk, somatic cell count, season, and year were included in the models. Yield in first-parity cows was reduced by a mean of 1.4 kg (95% confidence interval: 0.5 to 2.3) of ECM/cow per day from 7 to 15 mo after the estimated herd infection date, compared with that of first-parity cows in the same herds in the 12 mo before the estimated herd infection date. Yield for parity 3+ cows was reduced by a mean of 3.0 kg (95% confidence interval: 1.3 to 4.8) of ECM/cow per day from 7 to 15 mo after herd infection compared with that of parity 3+ cows in the 12 mo before the estimated herd infection. We observed minor differences in yield in second-parity cows before and after herd infection and observed no difference between cows in control herds before and after the simulated infection date. Milk yield decreased significantly in affected herds and the reduction was detectable several months after the increase in bulk tank milk Salmonella antibodies. It took more than 1 yr for milk yield to return to preinfection levels.

Review of pathogenesis and diagnostic methods of immediate relevance for epidemiology and control of Salmonella Dublin in cattle

Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serovar Dublin (S. Dublin) receives increasing attention in cattle production. It is host-adapted to cattle, and leads to unacceptable levels of morbidity, mortality and production losses in both newly and persistently infected herds. Cattle health promoting institutions in several countries are currently constructing active surveillance programmes or voluntary certification programmes, and encourage control and eradication of S. Dublin infected cattle herds. There is a need to understand the underlying pathogenesis of the infection at both animal and herd level to design successful programmes. Furthermore, knowledge about and access to diagnostic tests for use in practice including information about test accuracy and interpretation of available diagnostic test methods are requested. The aim is to synthesise the abundant literature on elements of pathogenesis and diagnosis of immediate relevance for epidemiology and control of S. Dublin at animal and herd level. Relatively few in vivo studies on S. Dublin pathogenesis in cattle included more than a few animals and often showed varying result. It makes it difficult to draw conclusions about mechanisms that affect dissemination in cattle and that might be targets for control methods directed towards improving resistance against the bacteria, e.g. new vaccines. It is recommended to perform larger studies to elucidate dose-response relationships and age- and genetic effects of immunity. Furthermore, it is recommended to attempt to develop faster and more sensitive methods for detection of S. Dublin for diagnosis of infectious animals.

A case-control study of risk factors for bovine cysticercosis in Danish cattle herds

Bovine cysticercosis (BC) is a zoonotic, parasitic infection in cattle. Under the current EU meat inspection regulation, every single carcass from all bovines above 6 weeks of age is examined for BC. This method is costly and makes more sense in countries with higher number of BC-infected animals than in countries with few lightly infected cases per year. The aim of the present case-control study was to quantify associations between potential herd-level risk factors and BC in Danish cattle herds. Risk factors can be used in the design of a risk-based meat inspection system targeted towards the animals with the highest risk of BC. Cases (n = 77) included herds that hosted at least one animal diagnosed with BC at meat inspection, from 2006 to 2010. Control herds (n = 231) consisted of randomly selected herds that had not hosted any animals diagnosed with BC between 2004 and 2010. The answers from a questionnaire and register data from the Danish Cattle Database were grouped into meaningful variables and used to investigate the risk factors for BC using a multivariable logistic regression model. Case herds were almost three times more likely than control herds to let all or most animals out grazing. Case herds were more than five times more likely than control herds to allow their animals access to risky water sources with sewage treatment plant effluent in proximity. Case herds were also more likely to share machinery or hire contractors than control herds. The risk decreased with increasing herd size probably because the larger herds generally tend to keep cattle indoors in Denmark. The results are useful to guide future data recording that can be supplied by the farmer as food chain information and then be used for differentiated meat inspection in low- and high-risk groups, enabling development of risk-based meat inspection systems.

Survival analysis of factors affecting incidence risk of Salmonella Dublin in Danish dairy herds during a 7-year surveillance period

A national surveillance programme for Salmonella Dublin, based on regular bulk-tank milk antibody screening and movements of cattle, was initiated in Denmark in 2002. From 2002 to end of 2009 the prevalence of test-positive dairy herds was reduced from 26% to 10%. However, new infections and spread of S. Dublin between herds continued to occur. The objective of this study was to investigate factors affecting incidence risk of S. Dublin infection in Danish dairy herds between 2003 and 2009. Herds were considered at risk when they had been test-negative for at least four consecutive year-quarters (YQs), either at the start of the study period or after recovery from infection. Survival analysis was performed on a dataset including 6931 dairy herds with 118,969 YQs at risk, in which 1523 failures (new infection events) occurred. Predictors obtained from register data were tested in a multivariable, proportional hazard model allowing for recurrence within herds. During October to December the hazard of failures was higher (hazard ratio HR=3.4, P=0.0005) than the rest of the year. Accounting for the delay in bulk-tank milk antibody responses to S. Dublin infection, this indicates that introduction of bacteria was most frequent between July and October. Purchase from test-positive cattle herds within the previous 6 months was associated with higher hazard of failures (HR=2.5, P<0.0001) compared to no purchase and purchase from test-negative herds. Increasing local prevalence, herd size and bulk-tank milk somatic cell counts were also associated with increasing hazard of failures. The effect of prior infection was time-dependent; the hazard of failures was reduced following a logarithmic decline with increasing time at risk. The hazard was markedly higher in herds with prior infections the first year after becoming at risk again, and then approached the hazard in herds without known prior infections 2-3 years after becoming test-negative. This showed that herds with prior infections need to maintain a high level of biosecurity for at least 3 years after becoming test-negative for S. Dublin to prevent recurrence. Furthermore, general recommendations for dairy herds wishing to protect their herds against S. Dublin include avoidance of purchase from and contact to test-positive herds. Large herds, herds with test-positive neighbours and herds with high somatic cell counts need to obtain and maintain a high level of biosecurity.

Spatial patterns in surveillance data during control of Salmonella Dublin in bovine dairy herds in Jutland, Denmark 2003-2009

Salmonella Dublin is the most commonly isolated Salmonella serotype in Danish cattle and leads to economic and welfare losses in infected herds. Furthermore, it leads to high mortality in human cases. A national surveillance program for Salmonella Dublin was initiated in Denmark in October 2002. This study aimed at modelling the progress and spatial patterns during the control of Salmonella Dublin in dairy herds in the Jutland peninsula in Denmark, especially differences between regions and years. A total of 6331 dairy herds were included during 2003-2009. Antibody measurements of bulk-tank milk samples were used for testing herd-level Salmonella status in these dairy herds. Risk maps were estimated as prevalence intensity maps. Spatial clustering was analysed using scan statistics and SMR was estimated. In 2003, the prevalence of Salmonella Dublin test-positive dairy herds was 24%. It decreased to 12% in 2009. Prevalence intensity maps showed large differences in the reduction of Salmonella Dublin test-positive herds. The number of clusters reduced during the study period. However, throughout the study period two clusters remained significant. Differences were seen in the progress of the control between regions over the years. The implementation and effectiveness of the control program was different between regions. The progress of control was seen to vary not only between regions, but also over time influencing infection dynamics. Thus, recommendations and regionally targeted efforts during control campaigns are needed.

Use of information on disease diagnoses from databases for animal health economic, welfare and food safety purposes: strengths and limitations of recordings

Many animal health, welfare and food safety databases include data on clinical and test-based disease diagnoses. However, the circumstances and constraints for establishing the diagnoses vary considerably among databases. Therefore results based on different databases are difficult to compare and compilation of data in order to perform meta-analysis is almost impossible. Nevertheless, diagnostic information collected either routinely or in research projects is valuable in cross comparisons between databases, but there is a need for improved transparency and documentation of the data and the performance characteristics of tests used to establish diagnoses. The objective of this paper is to outline the circumstances and constraints for recording of disease diagnoses in different types of databases, and to discuss these in the context of disease diagnoses when using them for additional purposes, including research. Finally some limitations and recommendations for use of data and for recording of diagnostic information in the future are given. It is concluded that many research questions have such a specific objective that investigators need to collect their own data. However, there are also examples, where a minimal amount of extra information or continued validation could make sufficient improvement of secondary data to be used for other purposes. Regardless, researchers should always carefully evaluate the opportunities and constraints when they decide to use secondary data. If the data in the existing databases are not sufficiently valid, researchers may have to collect their own data, but improved recording of diagnostic data may improve the usefulness of secondary diagnostic data in the future.

Presence of natural genetic resistance in Fraxinus excelsior (Oleraceae) to Chalara fraxinea (Ascomycota): an emerging infectious disease

Fraxinus excelsior, common ash native to Europe, is threatened by a recently identified pathogenic fungus Chalara fraxinea, which causes extensive damage on ash trees across Europe. In Denmark, most stands are severely affected leaving many trees with dead crowns. However, single trees show notably fewer symptoms. In this study, the impact of the emerging infectious disease on native Danish ash trees is assessed by estimating presence of inherent resistance in natural populations. Disease symptoms were assessed from 2007 to 2009 at two different sites with grafted ramets of 39 selected clones representing native F. excelsior trees. A strong genetic variation in susceptibility to C. fraxinea infections was observed. No genetic or geographic structure can explain the differences, but strong genetic correlations to leaf senescence were observed. The results suggest that a small fraction of trees in the Danish population of ash possess substantial resistance against the damage. Though this fraction is probably too low to avoid population collapse in most natural or managed ash forests, the observed presence of putative resistance against the emerging infectious disease in natural stands is likely to be of evolutionary importance. This provides prospects of future maintenance of the species through natural or artificial selection in favour of remaining healthy individuals.

Culling decisions of dairy farmers during a 3-year Salmonella control study

Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica-serotypes lead to periodically increased morbidity and mortality in cattle herds. The bacteria can also lead to serious infections in humans. Consequently, Denmark has started a surveillance and control programme in 2002. The programme focuses on Salmonella Dublin which is the most prevalent and most persistent serotype in the Danish cattle population. A field study in 10 dairy herds with persistent Salmonella infections was carried out over three years to gain experience with control procedures including risk assessment, targeted control actions and test-and-cull procedures. From autumn 2003 until end of 2006 quarterly milk quality control samples from all lactating cows and biannual blood samples from all young stock above the age of three months were tested using an indirect antibody ELISA. The most recent and previous test results were used to categorise all animals into risk groups. These risk groups and all individual ELISA-results were communicated to the farmers as colour-coded lists four to six times per year. Farmers were advised to manage the risk of Salmonella transmission from cattle with repeatedly high ELISA results (flagged as "red") or cows with at least one recent moderately high ELISA result (flagged as "yellow") on the lists. Risk management included, e.g. culling or separation of the cows at calving. We analysed culling decisions using two models. For heifers a hierarchical multivariable logistic model with herd as random effect evaluated if animals with red and yellow flags had higher probability of being slaughtered or sold before first calving than animals without any risk flags. For adult cows a semi-parametric proportional hazard survival model was used to test the effect of number of red and yellow flags on hazards of culling at different time points and interactions with prevalence in the herd while accounting for parity, stage of lactation, milk yield, somatic cell count and the hierarchical structure of the data with animals clustered at herd level. This study illustrates how investigation of culling decisions made by herd managers when they have access to test-status of individual animals and overall apparent prevalence during control of an infection can lead to useful new knowledge. Overall herd managers were more likely to cull cattle with increasing number of yellow and red flags than animals with no flags. However, cattle were more likely to be culled with yellow and red flags during times with low or medium high within-herd seroprevalence than at times with high seroprevalence. These results are valuable knowledge for modelling and planning of control strategies and for making recommendations to farmers about control options.

The range of influence between cattle herds is of importance for the local spread of Salmonella Dublin in Denmark

The objective of the study was to estimate the range of influence between cattle herds with positive Salmonella Dublin herd status. Herd status was a binary outcome of high/low antibody levels to Salmonella Dublin in bulk-tank milk and blood samples collected from all cattle herds in Denmark for surveillance purposes. Two methods were used. Initially, a spatial generalised linear mixed model was developed with an exponential correlation function to estimate the range of influence simultaneously with the effect of potential risk factors. An iteratively reweighted generalised least squares procedure was used as a second method for verifying the range of influence estimates. With this iterative procedure, deviance residuals were calculated based on a generalised linear model and the range of influence was estimated based on the residuals using an exponential semivariogram. The range of influence was estimated for six different regions in Denmark using both methods. The analyses were performed on data collected during 1 year after initiation of the Salmonella Dublin surveillance program providing herd classifications for the 4th year-quarter of 2003 and 2 years later for the 4th year-quarter of 2005. The prevalence of dairy herds with a positive Salmonella Dublin herd classification status in this period had decreased from 22.1 to 17.0%. In non-dairy herds, the prevalence was nearly unchanged during the same period (3.4 and 3.7% in 4th quarter of 2003 and 2005, respectively). For all cattle herds, the range of influence was 2.3-6.4 km in 2003 and 1.5-8.3 km in 2005. There seemed to be no association between the range of influence and the density of herds in the different regions.