Delay in Adélie penguin nest occupation restricts parental investment in nest construction and reduces reproductive output

Reproductive success is an important demographic parameter that can be driven by environmental and behavioural factors operating on various spatio-temporal scales. As seabirds breed on land and forage in the ocean, processes occurring in both environments can influence their reproductive success. At various locations around East Antarctica, Adélie penguins' (Pygoscelis adeliae) reproductive success has been negatively linked to extensive sea-ice. In contrast, our study site in the Windmill Islands has limited fast ice present during the breeding season, allowing us to examine drivers of reproductive success under vastly different marine environmental conditions. Here, we examined the reproductive success of 450 Adélie penguin nests over a 10-year period using images obtained from remotely operated cameras. We analysed nest survival in relation to marine and climatic factors, environmental conditions at the camera site and immediately around the nest, and behavioural attributes reflecting parental investment and phenological timing. Our key result was a strong positive association between nest structure and chick survival, particularly when ground moisture and snow cover around the nest were high. Earlier nesting birds were more likely to build bigger nests, although it is unclear whether this is due to more time available to build nests or whether early arrival and high-quality nests are complementary traits. This intrinsic activity is likely to become more important if future predictions of increased snowfall in this region manifest.

Circumpolar assessment of mercury contamination: the Adélie penguin as a bioindicator of Antarctic marine ecosystems

Due to its persistence and potential ecological and health impacts, mercury (Hg) is a global pollutant of major concern that may reach high concentrations even in remote polar oceans. In contrast to the Arctic Ocean, studies documenting Hg contamination in the Southern Ocean are spatially restricted and large-scale monitoring is needed. Here, we present the first circumpolar assessment of Hg contamination in Antarctic marine ecosystems. Specifically, the Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) was used as a bioindicator species, to examine regional variation across 24 colonies distributed across the entire Antarctic continent. Mercury was measured on body feathers collected from both adults (n = 485) and chicks (n = 48) between 2005 and 2021. Because penguins' diet represents the dominant source of Hg, feather δ13C and δ15N values were measured as proxies of feeding habitat and trophic position. As expected, chicks had lower Hg concentrations (mean ± SD: 0.22 ± 0.08 μg·g‒1) than adults (0.49 ± 0.23 μg·g‒1), likely because of their shorter bioaccumulation period. In adults, spatial variation in feather Hg concentrations was driven by both trophic ecology and colony location. The highest Hg concentrations were observed in the Ross Sea, possibly because of a higher consumption of fish in the diet compared to other sites (krill-dominated diet). Such large-scale assessments are critical to assess the effectiveness of the Minamata Convention on Mercury. Owing to their circumpolar distribution and their ecological role in Antarctic marine ecosystems, Adélie penguins could be valuable bioindicators for tracking spatial and temporal trends of Hg across Antarctic waters in the future.

Environment-triggered demographic changes cascade and compound to propel a dramatic decline of an Antarctic seabird metapopulation

While seabirds are well-known for making a living under some of the harshest conditions on the planet, their capacity to buffer against unfavourable conditions can be stretched in response to ecosystem change. During population increases, overlap between conspecifics can limit population growth through competition for breeding or feeding resources. What is less well understood is the role that intrinsic processes play during periods of population decline or under a changing environment. We interrogate key demographic parameters and their biophysical drivers to understand the role of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers during a recent near halving of a large Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) metapopulation. The loss of 154,000 breeding birds along the 100-km East Antarctic coastline centred around 63°E over the last decade diverges from a sustained increase over preceding decades and is contrary to recent models that predict a continued increase. The decline was initially triggered by changed environmental conditions: more extensive near-shore sea ice caused a reduction in breeding success. The evidence suggests this decline was exacerbated by feedback processes driving an inverse density-dependent decrease in fledgling survival in response to smaller cohort size. It appears that the old adage of safety in numbers may shape the fledgling penguins' chances of survival and, if compromised over multiple years, could exacerbate difficulties during population decline or if feedback processes arise. The likely interplay between demographic parameters meant that conditions were more unfavourable and negative effects more rapid than would be expected if demographic processes acted in isolation or independently. Failure to capture both intrinsic and extrinsic drivers in predictive population models may mean that the real impacts of climate change on species' populations are more severe than projections would lead us to believe. These results improve our understanding of population regulation during periods of rapid decline for long-lived marine species.

New and legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in breeding seabirds from the East Antarctic

Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are pervasive and a significant threat to the environment worldwide. Yet, reports of POP levels in Antarctic seabirds based on blood are scarce, resulting in significant geographical gaps. Blood concentrations offer a snapshot of contamination within live populations, and have been used widely for Arctic and Northern Hemisphere seabird species but less so in Antarctica. This paper presents levels of legacy POPs (polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)) and novel brominated flame retardants (NBFRs) in the blood of five Antarctic seabird species breeding within Prydz Bay, East Antarctica. Legacy PCBs and OCPs were detected in all species sampled, with Adélie penguins showing comparatively high ∑PCB levels (61.1 ± 87.6 ng/g wet weight (ww)) compared to the four species of flying seabirds except the snow petrel (22.5 ± 15.5 ng/g ww), highlighting that legacy POPs are still present within Antarctic wildlife despite decades-long bans. Both PBDEs and NBFRs were detected in trace levels for all species and hexabromobenzene (HBB) was quantified in cape petrels (0.3 ± 0.2 ng/g ww) and snow petrels (0.2 ± 0.1 ng/g ww), comparable to concentrations found in Arctic seabirds. These results fill a significant data gap within the Antarctic region for POPs studies, representing a crucial step forward assessing the fate and impact of legacy POPs contamination in the Antarctic environment.

Phenology-based adjustments improve population estimates of Antarctic breeding seabirds: the case of Cape petrels in East Antarctica

To monitor and conserve a species, it is crucial to understand the size and distribution of populations. For seabirds, population surveys are usually conducted at peak breeding attendance. One of the largest populations of Cape petrels in East Antarctica is at the Vestfold Islands, where environmental and logistical constraints often prevent access to breeding sites at the optimal time for population surveys. In this study, we aim to quantify the contemporary and historical breeding population size of these Cape petrels by adjusting nest counts for variation in breeding phenology using photographs from remote cameras. We also compare spatial distribution between 1970s and 2017/2018. Our results show ground counts occurred outside peak breeding attendance, and adjusting for phenology changed the contemporary and historical population estimates. The Cape petrels showed local intra-island or adjacent-island changes in their distribution between the 1970s and 2017/2018 with no evidence of expanding or restricting their distribution or a significant change in their breeding population size. The results emphasize the importance of accounting for phenology in population counts, where populations are inaccessible at an optimal survey time. We discuss the applications of our research methodology for populations breeding in remote areas and as a baseline for assessing population change.

South polar skua (Catharacta maccormicki) as biovectors for long-range transport of persistent organic pollutants to Antarctica

Migratory bird species may serve as vectors of contaminants to Antarctica through the local deposition of guano, egg abandonment, or mortality. To further investigate this chemical input pathway, we examined the contaminant burdens and profiles of the migratory South polar skua (Catharacta maccormicki) and compared them to the endemic Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae). A range of persistent organic pollutants were targeted in muscle and guano to facilitate differentiation of likely exposure pathways. A total of 56 of 65 targeted analytes were detected in both species, but there were clear profile and magnitude differences between the species. The South polar skua and Adélie penguin muscle tissue burdens were dominated by p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (mean 5600 ng g^-1 lw and 330 ng g^-1 lw respectively) and hexachlorobenzene (mean 2500 ng g^-1 lw and 570 ng g^-1 lw respectively), a chemical profile characteristic of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean region. Species profile differences, indicative of exposure at different latitudes, were observed for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), with lower chlorinated congeners and deca-chlorinated PCB-209 detected in South polar Skua, but not in Adélie penguins. Notably, the more recently used perfluoroalkyl substances and the brominated flame retardants, hexabromocyclododecane and tetrabromobisphenol A, were detected in both species. This finding suggests local exposure, given the predicted slow and limited long-range environmental transport capacity of these compounds to the eastern Antarctic sector.

Horizontal-vertical movement relationships: Adélie penguins forage continuously throughout provisioning trips

BACKGROUND

Diving marine predators forage in a three-dimensional environment, adjusting their horizontal and vertical movement behaviour in response to environmental conditions and the spatial distribution of prey. Expectations regarding horizontal-vertical movements are derived from optimal foraging theories, however, inconsistent empirical findings across a range of taxa suggests these behavioural assumptions are not universally applicable.

METHODS

Here, we examined how changes in horizontal movement trajectories corresponded with diving behaviour and marine environmental conditions for a ubiquitous Southern Ocean predator, the Adélie penguin. Integrating extensive telemetry-based movement and environmental datasets for chick-rearing Adélie penguins at Béchervaise Island, we tested the relationships between horizontal move persistence (continuous scale indicating low ['resident'] to high ['directed'] movement autocorrelation), vertical dive effort and environmental variables.

RESULTS

Penguins dived continuously over the course of their foraging trips and lower horizontal move persistence corresponded with less intense foraging activity, likely indicative of resting behaviour. This challenges the traditional interpretation of horizontal-vertical movement relationships based on optimal foraging models, which assumes increased residency within an area translates to increased foraging activity. Movement was also influenced by different environmental conditions during the two stages of chick-rearing: guard and crèche. These differences highlight the strong seasonality of foraging habitat for chick-rearing Adélie penguins at Béchervaise Island.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings advance our understanding of the foraging behaviour for this marine predator and demonstrates the importance of integrating spatial location and behavioural data before inferring habitat use.

Emerging evidence of resource limitation in an Antarctic seabird metapopulation after 6 decades of sustained population growth

The influence of resource limitation on spatio-temporal population dynamics is a fundamental theme in ecology and the concepts of carrying capacity, density dependence and population synchrony are central to this theme. The life history characteristics of seabirds, which include use of disjunct patches of breeding habitat, high coloniality during breeding, strong philopatry, and central-place foraging, make this group well suited to studying this paradigm. Here, we investigate whether density-dependent processes are starting to limit population growth in the Adélie penguin metapopulation breeding in the Windmill Islands, East Antarctica, after 6 decades of growth. Our finding that the regional growth rate has slowed in recent decades, and that growth is slowing differentially across local populations as availability of breeding habitat and possibly food resources decrease, supports the notion of density-dependent regulation. Our observation of the first new colonisation of a breeding patch in a half-century of population growth by this highly philopatric species is further evidence for this. Given these emerging patterns of spatio-temporal population dynamics, this metapopulation may be at a point where the rate of change in density-dependent processes and rare events such as colonisations accelerates into the future, potentially providing new insights into spatio-temporal metapopulation dynamics of a long-lived species over a short time-frame. Continued long-term study of populations experiencing these circumstances provides an opportunity to expedite advances in understanding metapopulation processes. Our study highlights the importance of spatial heterogeneity and the mosaic of abiotic and biotic features of landscapes and seascapes in shaping species' metapopulation dynamics.

Interactive effects of body mass changes and species-specific morphology on flight behavior of chick-rearing Antarctic fulmarine petrels under diurnal wind patterns

For procellariiform seabirds, wind and morphology are crucial determinants of flight costs and flight speeds. During chick-rearing, parental seabirds commute frequently to provision their chicks, and their body mass typically changes between outbound and return legs. In Antarctica, the characteristic diurnal katabatic winds, which blow stronger in the mornings, form a natural experimental setup to investigate flight behaviors of commuting seabirds in response to wind conditions. We GPS-tracked three closely related species of sympatrically breeding Antarctic fulmarine petrels, which differ in wing loading and aspect ratio, and investigated their flight behavior in response to wind and changes in body mass. Such information is critical for understanding how species may respond to climate change. All three species reached higher ground speeds (i.e., the speed over ground) under stronger tailwinds, especially on return legs from foraging. Ground speeds decreased under stronger headwinds. Antarctic petrels (Thalassoica antarctica; intermediate body mass, highest wing loading, and aspect ratio) responded stronger to changes in wind speed and direction than cape petrels (Daption capense; lowest body mass, wing loading, and aspect ratio) or southern fulmars (Fulmarus glacialoides; highest body mass, intermediate wing loading, and aspect ratio). Birds did not adjust their flight direction in relation to wind direction nor the maximum distance from their nests when encountering headwinds on outbound commutes. However, birds appeared to adjust the timing of commutes to benefit from strong katabatic winds as tailwinds on outbound legs and avoid strong katabatic winds as headwinds on return legs. Despite these adaptations to the predictable diurnal wind conditions, birds frequently encountered unfavorably strong headwinds, possibly as a result of weather systems disrupting the katabatics. How the predicted decrease in Antarctic near-coastal wind speeds over the remainder of the century will affect flight costs and breeding success and ultimately population trajectories remains to be seen.

Ageing simulation in health and social care education: A mixed methods systematic review

AIM

To identify, evaluate and summarize evidence from qualitative, quantitative and mixed method studies conducted using age suits or other age simulation equipment, with health and social care students.

DESIGN

Convergent segregated mixed method review design as outlined by the Johanna Briggs Institute.

DATA SOURCES

CINAHL (+ with Full Text), MEDLINE, PsycINFO, PubMed, SocINDEX, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Emerald Insight, Proquest nursing, Science Direct, Wiley Online and BioMed Central (January 2000-January 2020).

REVIEW METHODS

Convergent segregated synthesis was used to synthesize evidence from the studies and the MERSQI checklist used to appraise quality.

RESULTS

A total of 23 studies were reviewed: one randomized control, two post-test only randomized control, three quasi-experimental, 15 one-group pre/post studies and two qualitative studies. Of the seventeen studies carrying out inferential statistics on attitude scores post intervention, 11 reported an improvement, three indicated no significant change and three reported worsening scores. Key themes included use of appropriate scales, type of equipment used, location and length of interactions, debriefing and contextualization of interventions in broader teaching.

CONCLUSION

The impact of ageing simulation interventions on health and social care student's attitudes to older people was predominantly positive. However, further high-quality research is warranted to understand the optimal use of such interventions in the context of health care for a growing ageing population.

IMPACT

It is important health and social care staff have appropriate knowledge and training to enable them to provide high-quality care to older people and challenge potential ageism in the system. This review adds to the body of work around the use of simulation and experiential learning to educate health and social care students about ageing and ageism. It also offers recommendations for using ageing simulations effectively to inform attitudes of prospective professionals who will influence future health and social care.

A baseline for POPs contamination in Australian seabirds: little penguins vs. short-tailed shearwaters

While globally distributed throughout the world's ecosystems, there is little baseline information on persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in marine environments in Australia and, more broadly, the Southern Hemisphere. To fill this knowledge gap, we collected baseline information on POPs in migratory short-tailed shearwaters (Ardenna tenuirostris) from Fisher Island, Tasmania, and resident little penguins (Eudyptula minor) from Phillip Island, Victoria. Levels of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) and brominated flame retardants (BFRs) were determined from blood samples, with total contamination ranging 7.6-47.7 ng/g ww for short-tailed shearwaters and 0.12-46.9 ng/g ww for little penguins. In both species contamination followed the same pattern where PCBs>OCPs>BFRs. BFR levels included the presence of the novel flame retardant hexabromobenzene (HBB). These novel results of POPs in seabirds in southeast Australia provide important information on the local (penguins) and global (shearwaters) distribution of POPs in the marine environment.

Adélie penguin colonies as indicators of brominated flame retardants (BFRs) in East Antarctica

While persistent organic pollutant (POP) contamination within Antarctica is largely caused by long-range atmospheric transport (LRAT), Antarctic research bases have been shown to be local sources of POPs such as brominated flame retardants (BFRs). This study compared concentrations of seven polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDE) congeners and five novel flame retardants (NBFRs) found in Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) colony soils near the Australian research stations, Mawson and Davis, to assess the stations as local sources of these contaminants and provide a much needed baseline for contamination of BFRs in East Antarctica. Soil samples (n = 46) were collected from Adélie colonies at close proximity to the research stations as well as further afield during the 2016-17 austral summer. Samples were analysed using selective pressurised liquid extraction (S-PLE) and gas chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry (GC-MS/MS). PBDEs (BDE-28, -47, -99, -100, -153, -154 and -183) were detected in 45/46 samples with ∑₇PBDE concentrations ranging from <0.01 to 1.63 ng/g dry weight (dw) and NBFRs (2,3,4,5,6-pentabromotoluene (PBT), 2,3,4,5,6-pentabromoethylbenzene (PBEB), hexabromobenzene (HBB), 2-ethylhexyl-2,3,4,5-tetrabromobenzoate (EH-TBB) and bis(2,4,6-tribromophenoxy) ethane (BTBPE)) detected in 20/46 samples, with a range of ∑₅NBFR from not detected (ND) to 0.16 ng/g dw. Soils taken from around the Davis and Mawson research stations were more highly contaminated (n = 10) than penguin colonies (n = 27) and control areas not affiliated with breeding seabirds (n = 8). The most common congener detected was BDE-99, reflecting inputs from LRAT. However, the congener profiles of station soils supported the hypothesis that research stations are a local source of PBDEs to the Antarctic environment. In addition, the NBFR pentabromoethylbenzene (PBEB) was quantified for the first time in Antarctic soils, providing essential information for baseline contamination within the region and highlighting the need for ongoing monitoring as global regulations for the use of BFRs continuously change.

Tracking of marine predators to protect Southern Ocean ecosystems

Southern Ocean ecosystems are under pressure from resource exploitation and climate change^1,2. Mitigation requires the identification and protection of Areas of Ecological Significance (AESs), which have so far not been determined at the ocean-basin scale. Here, using assemblage-level tracking of marine predators, we identify AESs for this globally important region and assess current threats and protection levels. Integration of more than 4,000 tracks from 17 bird and mammal species reveals AESs around sub-Antarctic islands in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans and over the Antarctic continental shelf. Fishing pressure is disproportionately concentrated inside AESs, and climate change over the next century is predicted to impose pressure on these areas, particularly around the Antarctic continent. At present, 7.1% of the ocean south of 40°S is under formal protection, including 29% of the total AESs. The establishment and regular revision of networks of protection that encompass AESs are needed to provide long-term mitigation of growing pressures on Southern Ocean ecosystems.

The retrospective analysis of Antarctic tracking data project

The Retrospective Analysis of Antarctic Tracking Data (RAATD) is a Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research project led jointly by the Expert Groups on Birds and Marine Mammals and Antarctic Biodiversity Informatics, and endorsed by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources. RAATD consolidated tracking data for multiple species of Antarctic meso- and top-predators to identify Areas of Ecological Significance. These datasets and accompanying syntheses provide a greater understanding of fundamental ecosystem processes in the Southern Ocean, support modelling of predator distributions under future climate scenarios and create inputs that can be incorporated into decision making processes by management authorities. In this data paper, we present the compiled tracking data from research groups that have worked in the Antarctic since the 1990s. The data are publicly available through biodiversity.aq and the Ocean Biogeographic Information System. The archive includes tracking data from over 70 contributors across 12 national Antarctic programs, and includes data from 17 predator species, 4060 individual animals, and over 2.9 million observed locations.

Density dependence forces divergent population growth rates and alters occupancy patterns of a central place foraging Antarctic seabird

Density-dependent regulation is an important process in spatio-temporal population dynamics because it can alter the effects of synchronizing processes operating over large spatial scales. Most frequently, populations are regulated by density dependence when higher density leads to reduced individual fitness and population growth, but inverse density dependence can also occur when small populations are subject to higher extinction risks. We investigate whether density-dependent regulation influences population growth for the Antarctic breeding Adélie penguin Pygoscelis adeliae. Understanding the prevalence and nature of density dependence for this species is important because it is considered a sentinel species reflecting the impacts of fisheries and environmental change over large spatial scales in the Southern Ocean, but the presence of density dependence could introduce uncertainty in this role. Using data on population growth and indices of resource availability for seven regional Adélie penguin populations located along the East Antarctic coastline, we find compelling evidence that population growth is constrained at some locations by the amount of breeding habitat available to individuals. Locations with low breeding habitat availability had reduced population growth rates, higher overall occupancy rates, and higher occupancy of steeper slopes that are sparsely occupied or avoided at other locations. Our results are consistent with evolutionary models of avian breeding habitat selection where individuals search for high-quality nest sites to maximize fitness returns and subsequently occupy poorer habitat as population density increases. Alternate explanations invoking competition for food were not supported by the available evidence, but strong conclusions on food-related density dependence were constrained by the paucity of food availability data over the large spatial scales of this region. Our study highlights the importance of incorporating nonconstant conditions of species-environment relationships into predictive models of species distributions and population dynamics, and provides guidance for improved monitoring of fisheries and climate change impacts in the Southern Ocean.

Nonbreeder birds at colonies display qualitatively similar seasonal mass change patterns as breeders

The difficulty in studying nonbreeding birds means that little is known about them or their resource requirements, despite forming a large and significant component of a population. One way to assess food requirements is to examine changes in body mass, because it indicates the amount of food acquired. In terms of body mass changes, our expectation is that nonbreeders will either (a) be in poorer condition than the breeders which potentially explains why they do not breed or (b) remain at a stable higher mass as they are unconstrained by the physiological costs associated with rearing chicks. Here, we interrogate body mass datasets of breeding and nonbreeding birds of two penguin species to assess these predictions and determine whether differences in mass exist between these two groups throughout the breeding season. The first dataset is from a wild Adélie penguin population, where bird mass was recorded automatically and breeding status determined from a resighting program. A second population of captive gentoo penguins were weighed regularly each breeding season. We demonstrate that although there were times in each year when breeders were heavier than their nonbreeding counterparts for both populations, the mass changes showed qualitatively similar patterns throughout the breeding season irrespective of breeding status. Heavier breeders at times during the breeding season are not unexpected but the overall similar pattern of mass change irrespective of breeding status is in contrast to expectations. It appears that breeding status per se and the constraints that breeding places on birds are not the only driver of changes in mass throughout the breeding season and, although not explicitly studied here, the role of hormones in driving changes in appetite could be key to explain these results. These results present a significant step toward understanding food requirements of nonbreeders in avian populations.

Comparative population genomics reveals key barriers to dispersal in Southern Ocean penguins

The mechanisms that determine patterns of species dispersal are important factors in the production and maintenance of biodiversity. Understanding these mechanisms helps to forecast the responses of species to environmental change. Here, we used a comparative framework and genomewide data obtained through RAD-Seq to compare the patterns of connectivity among breeding colonies for five penguin species with shared ancestry, overlapping distributions and differing ecological niches, allowing an examination of the intrinsic and extrinsic barriers governing dispersal patterns. Our findings show that at-sea range and oceanography underlie patterns of dispersal in these penguins. The pelagic niche of emperor (Aptenodytes forsteri), king (A. patagonicus), Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae) and chinstrap (P. antarctica) penguins facilitates gene flow over thousands of kilometres. In contrast, the coastal niche of gentoo penguins (P. papua) limits dispersal, resulting in population divergences. Oceanographic fronts also act as dispersal barriers to some extent. We recommend that forecasts of extinction risk incorporate dispersal and that management units are defined by at-sea range and oceanography in species lacking genetic data.

Simultaneous DNA-based diet analysis of breeding, non-breeding and chick Adélie penguins

As central place foragers, breeding penguins are restricted in foraging range by the need to return to the colony to feed chicks. Furthermore, breeding birds must balance energetic gain from self-feeding with the costs of returning to provision young. Non-breeding birds, however, are likely to be less restricted in foraging range and lack the high energy demands of provisioning, therefore may consume different prey to breeders. We used DNA dietary analysis to determine whether there was a difference in provisioning and self-feeding diet by identifying prey DNA in scat samples from breeding and chick Adélie penguins at two locations in East Antarctica. We also investigated diet differences between breeders and non-breeders at one site. Although previous work shows changing foraging behaviour between chick provisioning and self-feeding, our results suggest no significant differences in the main prey groups consumed by chicks and breeders at either site or between breeding stages. This may reflect the inability of penguins to selectively forage when provisioning, or resources were sufficient for all foraging needs. Conversely, non-breeders were found to consume different prey groups to breeders, which may reflect less restricted foraging ranges, breeders actively selecting particular prey during breeding or reduced foraging experience of non-breeders.

Proliferation of East Antarctic Adélie penguins in response to historical deglaciation

Background

Major, long-term environmental changes are projected in the Southern Ocean and these are likely to have impacts for marine predators such as the Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae). Decadal monitoring studies have provided insight into the short-term environmental sensitivities of Adélie penguin populations, particularly to sea ice changes. However, given the long-term nature of projected climate change, it is also prudent to consider the responses of populations to environmental change over longer time scales. We investigated the population trajectory of Adélie penguins during the last glacial-interglacial transition to determine how the species was affected by climate warming over millennia. We focussed our study on East Antarctica, which is home to 30 % of the global population of Adélie penguins.

Methods

Using mitochondrial DNA from extant colonies, we reconstructed the population trend of Adélie penguins in East Antarctica over the past 22,000 years using an extended Bayesian skyline plot method. To determine the relationship of East Antarctic Adélie penguins with populations elsewhere in Antarctica we constructed a phylogeny using mitochondrial DNA sequences.

Results

We found that the Adélie penguin population expanded 135-fold from approximately 14,000 years ago. The population growth was coincident with deglaciation in East Antarctica and, therefore, an increase in ice-free ground suitable for Adélie penguin nesting. Our phylogenetic analysis indicated that East Antarctic Adélie penguins share a common ancestor with Adélie penguins from the Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Arc, with an estimated age of 29,000 years ago, in the midst of the last glacial period. This finding suggests that extant colonies in East Antarctica, the Scotia Arc and the Antarctic Peninsula were founded from a single glacial refuge.

Conclusions

While changes in sea ice conditions are a critical driver of Adélie penguin population success over decadal and yearly timescales, deglaciation appears to have been the key driver of population change over millennia. This suggests that environmental drivers of population trends over thousands of years may differ to drivers over years or decades, highlighting the need to consider millennial-scale trends alongside contemporary data for the forecasting of species’ abundance and distribution changes under future climate change scenarios.

Re-constructing historical Adélie penguin abundance estimates by retrospectively accounting for detection bias

Seabirds and other land-breeding marine predators are considered to be useful and practical indicators of the state of marine ecosystems because of their dependence on marine prey and the accessibility of their populations at breeding colonies. Historical counts of breeding populations of these higher-order marine predators are one of few data sources available for inferring past change in marine ecosystems. However, historical abundance estimates derived from these population counts may be subject to unrecognised bias and uncertainty because of variable attendance of birds at breeding colonies and variable timing of past population surveys. We retrospectively accounted for detection bias in historical abundance estimates of the colonial, land-breeding Adélie penguin through an analysis of 222 historical abundance estimates from 81 breeding sites in east Antarctica. The published abundance estimates were de-constructed to retrieve the raw count data and then re-constructed by applying contemporary adjustment factors obtained from remotely operating time-lapse cameras. The re-construction process incorporated spatial and temporal variation in phenology and attendance by using data from cameras deployed at multiple sites over multiple years and propagating this uncertainty through to the final revised abundance estimates. Our re-constructed abundance estimates were consistently higher and more uncertain than published estimates. The re-constructed estimates alter the conclusions reached for some sites in east Antarctica in recent assessments of long-term Adélie penguin population change. Our approach is applicable to abundance data for a wide range of colonial, land-breeding marine species including other penguin species, flying seabirds and marine mammals.

Climate change and Southern Ocean ecosystems I: how changes in physical habitats directly affect marine biota

Antarctic and Southern Ocean (ASO) marine ecosystems have been changing for at least the last 30 years, including in response to increasing ocean temperatures and changes in the extent and seasonality of sea ice; the magnitude and direction of these changes differ between regions around Antarctica that could see populations of the same species changing differently in different regions. This article reviews current and expected changes in ASO physical habitats in response to climate change. It then reviews how these changes may impact the autecology of marine biota of this polar region: microbes, zooplankton, salps, Antarctic krill, fish, cephalopods, marine mammals, seabirds, and benthos. The general prognosis for ASO marine habitats is for an overall warming and freshening, strengthening of westerly winds, with a potential pole-ward movement of those winds and the frontal systems, and an increase in ocean eddy activity. Many habitat parameters will have regionally specific changes, particularly relating to sea ice characteristics and seasonal dynamics. Lower trophic levels are expected to move south as the ocean conditions in which they are currently found move pole-ward. For Antarctic krill and finfish, the latitudinal breadth of their range will depend on their tolerance of warming oceans and changes to productivity. Ocean acidification is a concern not only for calcifying organisms but also for crustaceans such as Antarctic krill; it is also likely to be the most important change in benthic habitats over the coming century. For marine mammals and birds, the expected changes primarily relate to their flexibility in moving to alternative locations for food and the energetic cost of longer or more complex foraging trips for those that are bound to breeding colonies. Few species are sufficiently well studied to make comprehensive species-specific vulnerability assessments possible. Priorities for future work are discussed.

Adélie penguin survival: age structure, temporal variability and environmental influences

The driving factors of survival, a key demographic process, have been particularly challenging to study, especially for winter migratory species such as the Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae). While winter environmental conditions clearly influence Antarctic seabird survival, it has been unclear to which environmental features they are most likely to respond. Here, we examine the influence of environmental fluctuations, broad climatic conditions and the success of the breeding season prior to winter on annual survival of an Adélie penguin population using mark-recapture models based on penguin tag and resight data over a 16-year period. This analysis required an extension to the basic Cormack-Jolly-Seber model by incorporating age structure in recapture and survival sub-models. By including model covariates, we show that survival of older penguins is primarily related to the amount and concentration of ice present in their winter foraging grounds. In contrast, fledgling and yearling survival depended on other factors in addition to the physical marine environment and outcomes of the previous breeding season, but we were unable to determine what these were. The relationship between sea-ice and survival differed with penguin age: extensive ice during the return journey to breeding colonies was detrimental to survival for the younger penguins, whereas either too little or too much ice (between 15 and 80% cover) in the winter foraging grounds was detrimental for adults. Our results demonstrate that predictions of Adélie penguin survival can be improved by taking into account penguin age, prior breeding conditions and environmental features.