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Sierra CA, Ahrens B, Bolinder MA, Braakhekke MC, von Fromm S, Kätterer T, Luo Z, Parvin N, Wang G. Carbon sequestration in the subsoil and the time required to stabilize carbon for climate change mitigation. Glob Chang Biol 2024; 30:e17153. [PMID: 38273531 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.17153] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2023] [Revised: 12/21/2023] [Accepted: 01/02/2024] [Indexed: 01/27/2024]
Abstract
Soils store large quantities of carbon in the subsoil (below 0.2 m depth) that is generally old and believed to be stabilized over centuries to millennia, which suggests that subsoil carbon sequestration (CS) can be used as a strategy for climate change mitigation. In this article, we review the main biophysical processes that contribute to carbon storage in subsoil and the main mathematical models used to represent these processes. Our guiding objective is to review whether a process understanding of soil carbon movement in the vertical profile can help us to assess carbon storage and persistence at timescales relevant for climate change mitigation. Bioturbation, liquid phase transport, belowground carbon inputs, mineral association, and microbial activity are the main processes contributing to the formation of soil carbon profiles, and these processes are represented in models using the diffusion-advection-reaction paradigm. Based on simulation examples and measurements from carbon and radiocarbon profiles across biomes, we found that advective and diffusive transport may only play a secondary role in the formation of soil carbon profiles. The difference between vertical root inputs and decomposition seems to play a primary role in determining the shape of carbon change with depth. Using the transit time of carbon to assess the timescales of carbon storage of new inputs, we show that only small quantities of new carbon inputs travel through the profile and can be stabilized for time horizons longer than 50 years, implying that activities that promote CS in the subsoil must take into consideration the very small quantities that can be stabilized in the long term.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carlos A Sierra
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
- Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
| | | | - Martin A Bolinder
- Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
| | | | - Sophie von Fromm
- Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
- Department of Environmental Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Thomas Kätterer
- Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Zhongkui Luo
- College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Nargish Parvin
- Department of Ecology, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Guocheng Wang
- Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
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Buddendorf WB, Wipfler L, Beltman W, Baveco H, Braakhekke MC, Bub S, Gergs A, Schad T. Aquatic Risks at the Landscape Scale: A Case Study for Pyrethroid Use in Pome Fruit Orchards in Belgium. Environ Sci Technol 2023; 57:15608-15616. [PMID: 37796045 PMCID: PMC10586366 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.3c02716] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2023] [Revised: 09/22/2023] [Accepted: 09/22/2023] [Indexed: 10/06/2023]
Abstract
Procedures for environmental risk assessment for pesticides are under continuous development and subject to debate, especially at higher tier levels. Spatiotemporal dynamics of both pesticide exposure and effects at the landscape scale are largely ignored, which is a major flaw of the current risk assessment system. Furthermore, concrete guidance on risk assessment at landscape scales in the regulatory context is lacking. In this regard, we present an integrated modular simulation model system that includes spatiotemporally explicit simulation of pesticide application, fate, and effects on aquatic organisms. As a case study, the landscape model was applied to the Rummen, a river catchment in Belgium with a high density of pome fruit orchards. The application of a pyrethroid to pome fruit and the corresponding drift deposition on surface water and fate dynamics were simulated. Risk to aquatic organisms was quantified using a toxicokinetic/toxicodynamic model for individual survival at different levels of spatial aggregation, ranging from the catchment scale to individual stream segments. Although the derivation of landscape-scale risk assessment end points from model outputs is straightforward, a dialogue within the community, building on concrete examples as provided by this case study, is urgently needed in order to decide on the appropriate end points and on the definition of representative landscape scenarios for use in risk assessment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Willem B. Buddendorf
- Wageningen Environmental
Research, P.O. Box 47, 6700AA Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Louise Wipfler
- Wageningen Environmental
Research, P.O. Box 47, 6700AA Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Wim Beltman
- Wageningen Environmental
Research, P.O. Box 47, 6700AA Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | - Hans Baveco
- Wageningen Environmental
Research, P.O. Box 47, 6700AA Wageningen, The Netherlands
| | | | - Sascha Bub
- iES Landau, Institute for Environmental
Sciences, University of Kaiserslautern-Landau
(RPTU), Fortstraße 7, D-76829 Landau, Germany
| | - André Gergs
- Research
& Development, Crop Science, Environmental Modelling, Bayer AG, 40789 Monheim, Germany
| | - Thorsten Schad
- Research
& Development, Crop Science, Environmental Modelling, Bayer AG, 40789 Monheim, Germany
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Adriaanse PI, Braakhekke MC, Beltman WHJ, Crum SJH. Field test of the TOXSWA pesticide fate model: Comparison of simulated and observed chlorpyrifos in water, sediment and macrophytes in four stagnant ditches. Sci Total Environ 2022; 825:153961. [PMID: 35189206 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153961] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2021] [Revised: 02/11/2022] [Accepted: 02/14/2022] [Indexed: 06/14/2023]
Abstract
TOXSWA is a numerical model describing pesticide behavior in an edge-of-field waterbody. It is widely used to predict exposure in regulatory risk assessment for aquatic ecosystems. Exposure concentrations are predicted based upon pesticide process parameters obtained in standardized laboratory experiments. However, few tests of the model performance based on field data have been carried out. We compare simulated concentrations to observations from a field experiment with four shallow stagnant ditches over sprayed with chlorpyrifos, a moderately volatile pesticide with a significant sorption capacity. Input parameters describing the four ditches, such as dimensions, water depth, sediment and macrophyte characteristics were measured in detail. Additionally, laboratory experiments were carried out to determine site-specific values for parameters describing chlorpyrifos degradation in water and sediment, as well as sorption to the two dominant macrophyte species. Based upon these estimated parameters, the correspondence between simulated and measured concentrations in water, sediment and macrophytes is poor. We attribute this discrepancy to a lack of site-specific input for the processes of volatilization and sorption to sediment, which both are important processes for chlorpyrifos. Therefore, we calibrated TOXSWA using the optimization tool PEST. The transfer coefficient for volatilization and the coefficient for sorption to sediment were optimized based on the observed concentrations in water and sediment. This resulted in a substantial improvement of correspondence. Optimized values of the transfer coefficient for volatilization and the coefficient for sorption to sediment are substantially higher than their initial estimates (4-8-fold and 2-4-fold increase, respectively), but can be well explained. The optimized coefficients vary less than a factor 2 between the four ditches. We conclude that TOXSWA can adequately predict chlorpyrifos behavior in the four ditches, provided that reliable site-specific parameter estimates are available. Field tests for other pesticides, waterbodies and agro-environmental conditions are warranted.
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Affiliation(s)
- Pauline I Adriaanse
- Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen UR, Wageningen, the Netherlands.
| | | | - Wim H J Beltman
- Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen UR, Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Steven J H Crum
- Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen UR, Wageningen, the Netherlands
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Doelman JC, Stehfest E, van Vuuren DP, Tabeau A, Hof AF, Braakhekke MC, Gernaat DEHJ, van den Berg M, van Zeist WJ, Daioglou V, van Meijl H, Lucas PL. Afforestation for climate change mitigation: Potentials, risks and trade-offs. Glob Chang Biol 2020; 26:1576-1591. [PMID: 31655005 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14887] [Citation(s) in RCA: 45] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/22/2018] [Accepted: 10/01/2019] [Indexed: 05/15/2023]
Abstract
Afforestation is considered a cost-effective and readily available climate change mitigation option. In recent studies afforestation is presented as a major solution to limit climate change. However, estimates of afforestation potential vary widely. Moreover, the risks in global mitigation policy and the negative trade-offs with food security are often not considered. Here we present a new approach to assess the economic potential of afforestation with the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model framework. In addition, we discuss the role of afforestation in mitigation pathways and the effects of afforestation on the food system under increasingly ambitious climate targets. We show that afforestation has a mitigation potential of 4.9 GtCO2 /year at 200 US$/tCO2 in 2050 leading to large-scale application in an SSP2 scenario aiming for 2°C (410 GtCO2 cumulative up to 2100). Afforestation reduces the overall costs of mitigation policy. However, it may lead to lower mitigation ambition and lock-in situations in other sectors. Moreover, it bears risks to implementation and permanence as the negative emissions are increasingly located in regions with high investment risks and weak governance, for example in Sub-Saharan Africa. Afforestation also requires large amounts of land (up to 1,100 Mha) leading to large reductions in agricultural land. The increased competition for land could lead to higher food prices and an increased population at risk of hunger. Our results confirm that afforestation has substantial potential for mitigation. At the same time, we highlight that major risks and trade-offs are involved. Pathways aiming to limit climate change to 2°C or even 1.5°C need to minimize these risks and trade-offs in order to achieve mitigation sustainably.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jonathan C Doelman
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Elke Stehfest
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - Detlef P van Vuuren
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Andrzej Tabeau
- Wageningen Economic Research, Wageningen University & Research, The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - Andries F Hof
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Maarten C Braakhekke
- Wageningen Environmental Research, Wageningen University & Research, The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - David E H J Gernaat
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | | | | | - Vassilis Daioglou
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Hans van Meijl
- Wageningen Economic Research, Wageningen University & Research, The Hague, The Netherlands
| | - Paul L Lucas
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, The Netherlands
- Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
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