Remission and low disease activity are associated with lower healthcare costs: results from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to determine the independent impact of definitions of remission/low disease activity (LDA) on direct/indirect costs (DCs, ICs) in a multicentre inception cohort.

METHODS

Patients from 31 centres in 10 countries were enrolled within 15 months of diagnosis and assessed annually. Five mutually exclusive disease activity states (DAS) were defined as (1) remission off-treatment: clinical (c) SLEDAI-2K=0, without prednisone/immunosuppressants; (2) remission on-treatment: cSLEDAI-2K=0, prednisone ≤5 mg/day and/or maintenance immunosuppressants; (3) LDA-Toronto Cohort (TC): cSLEDAI-2K≤2, without prednisone/immunosuppressants; (4) modified lupus LDA state (mLLDAS): SLEDAI-2K≤4, no activity in major organs/systems, no new activity, prednisone ≤7.5 mg/day and/or maintenance immunosuppressants and (5) active: all remaining assessments.At each assessment, patients were stratified into the most stringent DAS fulfilled and the proportion of time in a DAS since cohort entry was determined. Annual DCs/ICs (2021 Canadian dollars) were based on healthcare use and lost workforce/non-workforce productivity over the preceding year.The association between the proportion of time in a DAS and annual DC/IC was examined through multivariable random-effects linear regressions.

RESULTS

1692 patients were followed a mean of 9.7 years; 49.0% of assessments were active. Remission/LDA (per 25% increase in time in a remission/LDA state vs active) were associated with lower annual DC/IC: remission off-treatment (DC -$C1372; IC -$C2507), remission on-treatment (DC -$C973; IC -$C2604,) LDA-TC (DC -$C1158) and mLLDAS (DC -$C1040). There were no cost differences between remission/LDA states.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data suggest that systemic lupus erythematosus patients who achieve remission, both off and on-therapy, and reductions in disease activity incur lower costs than those experiencing persistent disease activity.

Anti-KIF20B autoantibodies are associated with cranial neuropathy in systemic lupus erythematosus

BACKGROUND

Cranial neuropathies (CN) are a rare neuropsychiatric SLE (NPSLE) manifestation. Previous studies reported that antibodies to the kinesin family member 20B (KIF20B) (anti-KIF20B) protein were associated with idiopathic ataxia and CN. We assessed anti-KIF20B as a potential biomarker for NPSLE in an international SLE inception cohort.

METHODS

Individuals fulfilling the revised 1997 American College of Rheumatology (ACR) SLE classification criteria were enrolled from 31 centres from 1999 to 2011 and followed annually in the Systemic Lupus Erythematosus International Collaborating Clinics inception cohort. Anti-KIF20B testing was performed on baseline (within 15 months of diagnosis or first annual visit) samples using an addressable laser bead immunoassay. Logistic regression (penalised maximum likelihood and adjusting for confounding variables) examined the association between anti-KIF20B and NPSLE manifestations (1999 ACR case definitions), including CN, occurring over the first 5 years of follow-up.

RESULTS

Of the 1827 enrolled cohort members, baseline serum and 5 years of follow-up data were available on 795 patients who were included in this study: 29.8% were anti-KIF20B-positive, 88.7% female, and 52.1% White. The frequency of anti-KIF20B positivity differed only for those with CN (n=10) versus without CN (n=785) (70.0% vs 29.3%; OR 5.2, 95% CI 1.4, 18.5). Compared with patients without CN, patients with CN were more likely to fulfil the ACR haematological (90.0% vs 66.1%; difference 23.9%, 95% CI 5.0%, 42.8%) and ANA (100% vs 95.7%; difference 4.3%, 95% CI 2.9%, 5.8%) criteria. In the multivariate analysis adjusting for age at baseline, female, White race and ethnicity, and ACR haematological and ANA criteria, anti-KIF20B positivity remained associated with CN (OR 5.2, 95% CI 1.4, 19.1).

CONCLUSION

Anti-KIF20B is a potential biomarker for SLE-related CN. Further studies are needed to examine how autoantibodies against KIF20B, which is variably expressed in a variety of neurological cells, contribute to disease pathogenesis.

Association Between Severe Nonadherence to Hydroxychloroquine and Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Flares, Damage, and Mortality in 660 Patients From the SLICC Inception Cohort

OBJECTIVE

The goals of this study were to assess the associations of severe nonadherence to hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), objectively assessed by HCQ serum levels, and risks of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) flares, damage, and mortality rates over five years of follow-up.

METHODS

The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) Inception Cohort is an international multicenter initiative (33 centers throughout 11 countries). The serum of patients prescribed HCQ for at least three months at enrollment were analyzed. Severe nonadherence was defined by a serum HCQ level <106 ng/mL or <53 ng/mL for HCQ doses of 400 or 200 mg/day, respectively. Associations with the risk of a flare (defined as a Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index 2000 increase ≥4 points, initiation of prednisone or immunosuppressive drugs, or new renal involvement) were studied with logistic regression, and associations with damage (first SLICC/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index [SDI] increase ≥1 point) and mortality with separate Cox proportional hazard models.

RESULTS

Of the 1,849 cohort participants, 660 patients (88% women) were included. Median (interquartile range) serum HCQ was 388 ng/mL (244-566); 48 patients (7.3%) had severe HCQ nonadherence. No covariates were clearly associated with severe nonadherence, which was, however, independently associated with both flare (odds ratio 3.38; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.80-6.42) and an increase in the SDI within each of the first three years (hazard ratio [HR] 1.92 at three years; 95% CI 1.05-3.50). Eleven patients died within five years, including 3 with severe nonadherence (crude HR 5.41; 95% CI 1.43-20.39).

CONCLUSION

Severe nonadherence was independently associated with the risks of an SLE flare in the following year, early damage, and five-year mortality.

Assessing the Costs of Neuropsychiatric Disease in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics Cohort Using Multistate Modeling

OBJECTIVE

To estimate direct and indirect costs associated with neuropsychiatric (NP) events in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics inception cohort.

METHODS

NP events were documented annually using American College of Rheumatology definitions for NP events and attributed to systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) or non-SLE causes. Patients were stratified into 1 of 3 NP states (no, resolved, or new/ongoing NP event). Change in NP status was characterized by interstate transition rates using multistate modeling. Annual direct costs and indirect costs were based on health care use and impaired productivity over the preceding year. Annual costs associated with NP states and NP events were calculated by averaging all observations in each state and adjusted through random-effects regressions. Five- and 10-year costs for NP states were predicted by multiplying adjusted annual costs per state by expected state duration, forecasted using multistate modeling.

RESULTS

A total of 1,697 patients (49% White race/ethnicity) were followed for a mean of 9.6 years. NP events (n = 1,971) occurred in 956 patients, 32% attributed to SLE. For SLE and non-SLE NP events, predicted annual, 5-, and 10-year direct costs and indirect costs were higher in new/ongoing versus no events. Direct costs were 1.5-fold higher and indirect costs 1.3-fold higher in new/ongoing versus no events. Indirect costs exceeded direct costs 3.0 to 5.2 fold. Among frequent SLE NP events, new/ongoing seizure disorder and cerebrovascular disease accounted for the largest increases in annual direct costs. For non-SLE NP events, new/ongoing polyneuropathy accounted for the largest increase in annual direct costs, and new/ongoing headache and mood disorder for the largest increases in indirect costs.

CONCLUSION

Patients with new/ongoing SLE or non-SLE NP events incurred higher direct and indirect costs.

Machine learning identifies clusters of longitudinal autoantibody profiles predictive of systemic lupus erythematosus disease outcomes

OBJECTIVES

A novel longitudinal clustering technique was applied to comprehensive autoantibody data from a large, well-characterised, multinational inception systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) cohort to determine profiles predictive of clinical outcomes.

METHODS

Demographic, clinical and serological data from 805 patients with SLE obtained within 15 months of diagnosis and at 3-year and 5-year follow-up were included. For each visit, sera were assessed for 29 antinuclear antibodies (ANA) immunofluorescence patterns and 20 autoantibodies. K-means clustering on principal component analysis-transformed longitudinal autoantibody profiles identified discrete phenotypic clusters. One-way analysis of variance compared cluster enrolment demographics and clinical outcomes at 10-year follow-up. Cox proportional hazards model estimated the HR for survival adjusting for age of disease onset.

RESULTS

Cluster 1 (n=137, high frequency of anti-Smith, anti-U1RNP, AC-5 (large nuclear speckled pattern) and high ANA titres) had the highest cumulative disease activity and immunosuppressants/biologics use at year 10. Cluster 2 (n=376, low anti-double stranded DNA (dsDNA) and ANA titres) had the lowest disease activity, frequency of lupus nephritis and immunosuppressants/biologics use. Cluster 3 (n=80, highest frequency of all five antiphospholipid antibodies) had the highest frequency of seizures and hypocomplementaemia. Cluster 4 (n=212) also had high disease activity and was characterised by multiple autoantibody reactivity including to antihistone, anti-dsDNA, antiribosomal P, anti-Sjögren syndrome antigen A or Ro60, anti-Sjögren syndrome antigen B or La, anti-Ro52/Tripartite Motif Protein 21, antiproliferating cell nuclear antigen and anticentromere B). Clusters 1 (adjusted HR 2.60 (95% CI 1.12 to 6.05), p=0.03) and 3 (adjusted HR 2.87 (95% CI 1.22 to 6.74), p=0.02) had lower survival compared with cluster 2.

CONCLUSION

Four discrete SLE patient longitudinal autoantibody clusters were predictive of long-term disease activity, organ involvement, treatment requirements and mortality risk.

Remission and low disease activity (LDA) prevent damage accrual in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: results from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort

OBJECTIVE

To determine the independent impact of different definitions of remission and low disease activity (LDA) on damage accrual.

METHODS

Patients with ≥2 annual assessments from a longitudinal multinational inception lupus cohort were studied. Five mutually exclusive disease activity states were defined: remission off-treatment: clinical Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (cSLEDAI)-2K=0, without prednisone or immunosuppressants; remission on-treatment: cSLEDAI-2K score=0, prednisone ≤5 mg/day and/or maintenance immunosuppressants; low disease activity Toronto cohort (LDA-TC): cSLEDAI-2K score of ≤2, without prednisone or immunosuppressants; modified lupus low disease activity (mLLDAS): Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index-2K score of 4 with no activity in major organ/systems, no new disease activity, prednisone ≤7.5 mg/day and/or maintenance immunosuppressants; active: all remaining visits. Only the most stringent definition was used per visit. Antimalarials were allowed in all. The proportion of time that patients were in a specific state at each visit since cohort entry was determined. Damage accrual was ascertained with the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index (SDI). Univariable and multivariable generalised estimated equation negative binomial regression models were used. Time-dependent covariates were determined at the same annual visit as the disease activity state but the SDI at the subsequent visit.

RESULTS

There were 1652 patients, 1464 (88.6%) female, mean age at diagnosis 34.2 (SD 13.4) years and mean follow-up time of 7.7 (SD 4.8) years. Being in remission off-treatment, remission on-treatment, LDA-TC and mLLDAS (per 25% increase) were each associated with a lower probability of damage accrual (remission off-treatment: incidence rate ratio (IRR)=0.75, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.81; remission on-treatment: IRR=0.68, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.75; LDA: IRR=0.79, 95% CI 0.68 to 0.92; and mLLDAS: IRR=0.76, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.89)).

CONCLUSIONS

Remission on-treatment and off-treatment, LDA-TC and mLLDAS were associated with less damage accrual, even adjusting for possible confounders and effect modifiers.

Longitudinal analysis of ANA in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) Inception Cohort

OBJECTIVES

A perception derived from cross-sectional studies of small systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) cohorts is that there is a marked discrepancy between antinuclear antibody (ANA) assays, which impacts on clinicians' approach to diagnosis and follow-up. We compared three ANA assays in a longitudinal analysis of a large international incident SLE cohort retested regularly and followed for 5 years.

METHODS

Demographic, clinical and serological data was from 805 SLE patients at enrolment, year 3 and 5. Two HEp-2 indirect immunofluorescence assays (IFA1, IFA2), an ANA ELISA, and SLE-related autoantibodies were performed in one laboratory. Frequencies of positivity, titres or absorbance units (AU), and IFA patterns were compared using McNemar, Wilcoxon and kappa statistics, respectively.

RESULTS

At enrolment, ANA positivity (≥1:80) was 96.1% by IFA1 (median titre 1:1280 (IQR 1:640-1:5120)), 98.3% by IFA2 (1:2560 (IQR 1:640-1:5120)) and 96.6% by ELISA (176.3 AU (IQR 106.4 AU-203.5 AU)). At least one ANA assay was positive for 99.6% of patients at enrolment. At year 5, ANA positivity by IFAs (IFA1 95.2%; IFA2 98.9%) remained high, while there was a decrease in ELISA positivity (91.3%, p<0.001). Overall, there was >91% agreement in ANA positivity at all time points and ≥71% agreement in IFA patterns between IFA1 and IFA2.

CONCLUSION

In recent-onset SLE, three ANA assays demonstrated commutability with a high proportion of positivity and titres or AU. However, over 5 years follow-up, there was modest variation in ANA assay performance. In clinical situations where the SLE diagnosis is being considered, a negative test by either the ELISA or HEp-2 IFA may require reflex testing.

Flares after hydroxychloroquine reduction or discontinuation: results from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) flares following hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) reduction or discontinuation versus HCQ maintenance.

METHODS

We analysed prospective data from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) cohort, enrolled from 33 sites within 15 months of SLE diagnosis and followed annually (1999-2019). We evaluated person-time contributed while on the initial HCQ dose ('maintenance'), comparing this with person-time contributed after a first dose reduction, and after a first HCQ discontinuation. We estimated time to first flare, defined as either subsequent need for therapy augmentation, increase of ≥4 points in the SLE Disease Activity Index-2000, or hospitalisation for SLE. We estimated adjusted HRs (aHRs) with 95% CIs associated with reducing/discontinuing HCQ (vs maintenance). We also conducted separate multivariable hazard regressions in each HCQ subcohort to identify factors associated with flare.

RESULTS

We studied 1460 (90% female) patients initiating HCQ. aHRs for first SLE flare were 1.20 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.38) and 1.56 (95% CI 1.31 to 1.86) for the HCQ reduction and discontinuation groups, respectively, versus HCQ maintenance. Patients with low educational level were at particular risk of flaring after HCQ discontinuation (aHR 1.43, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.87). Prednisone use at time-zero was associated with over 1.5-fold increase in flare risk in all HCQ subcohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

SLE flare risk was higher after HCQ taper/discontinuation versus HCQ maintenance. Decisions to maintain, reduce or stop HCQ may affect specific subgroups differently, including those on prednisone and/or with low education. Further study of special groups (eg, seniors) may be helpful.

Comparison of the 2019 European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology/American College of Rheumatology Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Classification Criteria With Two Sets of Earlier Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Classification Criteria

OBJECTIVE

The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) 2012 systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) classification criteria and the revised American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 1997 criteria are list based, counting each SLE manifestation equally. We derived a classification rule based on giving variable weights to the SLICC criteria and compared its performance to the revised ACR 1997, the unweighted SLICC 2012, and the newly reported European Alliance of Associations for Rheumatology (EULAR)/ACR 2019 criteria sets.

METHODS

The physician-rated patient scenarios used to develop the SLICC 2012 classification criteria were reemployed to devise a new weighted classification rule using multiple linear regression. The performance of the rule was evaluated on an independent set of expert-diagnosed patient scenarios and compared to the performance of the previously reported classification rules.

RESULTS

The weighted SLICC criteria and the EULAR/ACR 2019 criteria had less sensitivity but better specificity compared to the list-based revised ACR 1997 and SLICC 2012 classification criteria. There were no statistically significant differences between any pair of rules with respect to overall agreement with the physician diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

The 2 new weighted classification rules did not perform better than the existing list-based rules in terms of overall agreement on a data set originally generated to assess the SLICC criteria. Given the added complexity of summing weights, researchers may prefer the unweighted SLICC criteria. However, the performance of a classification rule will always depend on the populations from which the cases and non-cases are derived and whether the goal is to prioritize sensitivity or specificity.

Neuropsychiatric Events in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

OBJECTIVES

To determine predictors for change in neuropsychiatric (NP) event status in a large, prospective, international, inception cohort of SLE patients METHODS: Upon enrollment and annually thereafter, NP events attributed to SLE and non-SLE causes and physician determined resolution were documented. Factors potentially associated with onset and resolution of NP events were determined by time-to-event analysis using a multistate modelling structure.

RESULTS

NP events occurred in 955/1,827 (52.3%) patients and 592/1910 (31.0%) unique events were attributed to SLE. For SLE NP events multivariate analysis revealed positive associations with male sex, concurrent non-SLE NP events excluding headache, active SLE and corticosteroids. There was a negative association with Asian race/ethnicity, post-secondary education, and immunosuppressive or anti-malarial drugs. For non-SLE NP events, excluding headache, there was a positive association with concurrent SLE NP events and negative associations with African and Asian race/ethnicity. NP events attributed to SLE had a higher resolution rate than non-SLE NP events, with the exception of headache that had comparable resolution rates. For SLE NP events, multivariate analysis revealed resolution was more common with Asian race/ethnicity and for central/focal NP events. For non-SLE NP events resolution was more common with African race/ethnicity and less common with older age at SLE diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

In a large and long-term study of the occurrence and resolution of NP events in SLE we identified subgroups with better and worse prognosis. The course of NP events differs greatly depending on their nature and attribution.

Anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA in the SLICC classification criteria dataset

OBJECTIVE

Anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA is a common isotype of anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I in SLE. Anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I was not included in the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) SLE classification criteria, but was included in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) criteria. We aimed to evaluate the prevalence of anti-beta 2-glycoprotein I IgA in SLE versus other rheumatic diseases. In addition, we examined the association between anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA and disease manifestations in SLE.

METHODS

The dataset consisted of 1384 patients, 657 with a consensus physician diagnosis of SLE and 727 controls with other rheumatic diseases. Anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I isotypes were measured by ELISA. Patients with a consensus diagnosis of SLE were compared to controls with respect to presence of anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I. Among patients with SLE, we assessed the association between anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA and clinical manifestations.

RESULTS

The prevalence of anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA was 14% in SLE patients and 7% in rheumatic disease controls (odds ratio, OR 2.3, 95% CI: 1.6, 3.3). It was more common in SLE patients who were younger patients and of African descent (p = 0.019). Eleven percent of SLE patients had anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA alone (no anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgG or IgM). There was a significant association between anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA and anti-dsDNA (p = 0.001) and the other antiphospholipid antibodies (p = 0.0004). There was no significant correlation of anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA with any of the other ACR or SLICC clinical criteria for SLE. Those with anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA tended to have a history of thrombosis (12% vs 6%, p = 0.071), but the difference was not statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

We found the anti-beta 2 glycoprotein I IgA isotype to be more common in patients with SLE and in particular, with African descent. It could occur alone without other isotypes.

Lower vitamin D is associated with metabolic syndrome and insulin resistance in systemic lupus: data from an international inception cohort

OBJECTIVES

Vitamin D (25(OH)D) deficiency and metabolic syndrome (MetS) may both contribute to increased cardiovascular risk in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We aimed to examine the association of demographic factors, SLE phenotype, therapy and vitamin D levels with MetS and insulin resistance.

METHODS

The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) enrolled patients recently diagnosed with SLE (<15 months) from 33 centres across 11 countries from 2000. Clinical, laboratory and therapeutic data were collected. Vitamin D level was defined according to tertiles based on distribution across this cohort, which were set at T1 (10-36 nmol/l), T2 (37-60 nmol/l) and T3 (61-174 nmol/l). MetS was defined according to the 2009 consensus statement from the International Diabetes Federation. Insulin resistance was determined using the HOMA-IR model. Linear and logistic regressions were used to assess the association of variables with vitamin D levels.

RESULTS

Of the 1847 patients, 1163 (63%) had vitamin D measured and 398 (34.2%) subjects were in the lowest 25(OH)D tertile. MetS was present in 286 of 860 (33%) patients whose status could be determined. Patients with lower 25(OH)D were more likely to have MetS and higher HOMA-IR. The MetS components, hypertension, hypertriglyceridemia and decreased HDL were all significantly associated with lower 25(OH)D. Increased average glucocorticoid exposure was associated with higher insulin resistance.

CONCLUSIONS

MetS and insulin resistance are associated with lower vitamin D in patients with SLE. Further studies could determine whether vitamin D repletion confers better control of these cardiovascular risk factors and improve long-term outcomes in SLE.

Prediction of hospitalizations in systemic lupus erythematosus using the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics Frailty Index (SLICC-FI)

OBJECTIVE

The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) frailty index (FI) predicts mortality and damage accrual in SLE, but its association with hospitalizations has not been described. We estimated the association of baseline SLICC-FI values with future hospitalizations in the SLICC inception cohort.

METHODS

Baseline SLICC-FI scores were calculated. The number and duration of inpatient hospitalizations during follow-up were recorded. Negative binomial regression was used to estimate the association between baseline SLICC-FI values and the rate of hospitalizations per patient-year of follow-up. Linear regression was used to estimate the association of baseline SLICC-FI scores with the proportion of follow-up time spent in hospital. Multivariable models were adjusted for relevant baseline characteristics.

RESULTS

The 1549 SLE patients eligible for this analysis were mostly female (88.7%) with mean (SD) age 35.7 (13.3) years and median (IQR) disease duration 1.2 (0.9-1.5) years at baseline. Mean (SD) baseline SLICC-FI was 0.17 (0.08). During mean (SD) follow-up of 7.2 (3.7) years, 614 patients (39.6%) experienced 1570 hospitalizations. Higher baseline SLICC-FI values (per 0.05 increment) were associated with more frequent hospitalizations during follow-up (Incidence Rate Ratio 1.21; 95%CI 1.13-1.30), adjusting for baseline age, sex, corticosteroid use, immunosuppressive use, ethnicity/location, SLE disease activity index 2000 (SLEDAI-2K), SLICC/ACR damage index (SDI), and disease duration. Among patients with ≥1 hospitalization, higher baseline SLICC-FI values predicted a greater proportion of follow-up time spent hospitalized (Relative Rate 1.09; 95%CI 1.02-1.16).

CONCLUSION

The SLICC-FI predicts future hospitalizations among incident SLE patients, further supporting the SLICC-FI as a valid health measure in SLE.

Accrual of Atherosclerotic Vascular Events in a Multicenter Inception Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Cohort

OBJECTIVE

In previous studies, atherosclerotic vascular events (AVEs) were shown to occur in ~10% of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We undertook this study to investigate the annual occurrence and potential risk factors for AVEs in a multinational, multiethnic inception cohort of patients with SLE.

METHODS

A large 33-center cohort of SLE patients was followed up yearly between 1999 and 2017. AVEs were attributed to atherosclerosis based on SLE being inactive at the time of the AVE as well as typical atherosclerotic changes observed on imaging or pathology reports and/or evidence of atherosclerosis elsewhere. Analyses included descriptive statistics, rate of AVEs per 1,000 patient-years, and univariable and multivariable relative risk regression models.

RESULTS

Of the 1,848 patients enrolled in the cohort, 1,710 had ≥1 follow-up visit after enrollment, for a total of 13,666 patient-years. Of these 1,710 patients, 3.6% had ≥1 AVEs attributed to atherosclerosis, for an event rate of 4.6 per 1,000 patient-years. In multivariable analyses, lower AVE rates were associated with antimalarial treatment (hazard ratio [HR] 0.54 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.32-0.91]), while higher AVE rates were associated with any prior vascular event (HR 4.00 [95% CI 1.55-10.30]) and a body mass index of >40 kg/m² (HR 2.74 [95% CI 1.04-7.18]). A prior AVE increased the risk of subsequent AVEs (HR 5.42 [95% CI 3.17-9.27], P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of AVEs and the rate of AVE accrual demonstrated in the present study is much lower than that seen in previously published data. This may be related to better control of both the disease activity and classic risk factors.

Cancer risk in a large inception SLE cohort: Effects of demographics, smoking, and medications

OBJECTIVE

To assess cancer risk factors in incident SLE.

METHODS

Clinical variables and cancer outcomes were assessed annually among incident SLE patients. Multivariate hazard regression models (over-all risk, and most common cancers) included demographics and time-dependent medications (corticosteroids, antimalarial drugs, immunosuppressants), smoking, and adjusted mean SLE Disease Activity Index-2K.

RESULTS

Among 1668 patients (average 9 years follow-up), 65 cancers occurred: 15 breast, 10 non-melanoma skin, seven lung, six hematological, six prostate, five melanoma, three cervical, three renal, two each gastric, head and neck, and thyroid, and one each rectal, sarcoma, thymoma, and uterine cancers. Half of cancers (including all lung cancers) occurred in past/current smokers, versus one-third of patients without cancer. Multivariate analyses indicated over-all cancer risk was related primarily to male sex and older age at SLE diagnosis. In addition, smoking was associated with lung cancer. For breast cancer risk, age was positively and anti-malarial drugs were negatively associated. Anti-malarial drugs and higher disease activity were also negatively associated with non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) risk, whereas age and cyclophosphamide were positively associated. Disease activity was associated positively with hematologic and negatively with NMSC risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking is a key modifiable risk factor, especially for lung cancer, in SLE. Immunosuppressive medications were not clearly associated with higher risk except for cyclophosphamide and NMSC. Antimalarials were negatively associated with breast cancer and NMSC risk. SLE activity was associated positively with hematologic cancer and negatively with NMSC. Since the absolute number of cancers was small, additional follow-up will help consolidate these findings.

Prediction of Damage Accrual in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Using the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics Frailty Index

OBJECTIVE

The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) frailty index (FI) has been shown to predict mortality, but its association with other important outcomes is unknown. We examined the association of baseline SLICC FI values with damage accrual in the SLICC inception cohort.

METHODS

The baseline visit was defined as the first visit at which both organ damage (SLICC/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index [SDI]) and health-related quality of life (Short Form 36) were assessed. Baseline SLICC FI scores were calculated. Damage accrual was measured by the increase in SDI between the baseline assessment and the last study visit. Multivariable negative binomial regression was used to estimate the association between baseline SLICC FI values and the rate of increase in the SDI during follow-up, adjusting for relevant demographic and clinical characteristics.

RESULTS

The 1,549 systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients eligible for this analysis were mostly female (88.7%) with a mean ± SD age of 35.7 ± 13.3 years and a median disease duration of 1.2 years (interquartile range 0.9-1.5 years) at baseline. The mean ± SD baseline SLICC FI was 0.17 ± 0.08. Over a mean ± SD follow-up of 7.2 ± 3.7 years, 653 patients (42.2%) had an increase in SDI. Higher baseline SLICC FI values (per 0.05 increase) were associated with higher rates of increase in the SDI during follow-up (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.19 [95% confidence interval 1.13-1.25]), after adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity/region, education, baseline SLE Disease Activity Index 2000, baseline SDI, and baseline use of glucocorticoids, antimalarials, and immunosuppressive agents.

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate that the SLICC FI predicts damage accrual in incident SLE, which further supports the SLICC FI as a valid health measure in SLE.

Neuropsychiatric events in systemic lupus erythematosus: a longitudinal analysis of outcomes in an international inception cohort using a multistate model approach

OBJECTIVES

Using a reversible multistate model, we prospectively examined neuropsychiatric (NP) events for attribution, outcome and association with health-related quality of life (HRQoL), in an international, inception cohort of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients.

METHODS

Annual assessments for 19 NP events attributed to SLE and non-SLE causes, physician determination of outcome and patient HRQoL (short-form (SF)-36 scores) were measured. Time-to-event analysis and multistate modelling examined the onset, recurrence and transition between NP states.

RESULTS

NP events occurred in 955/1827 (52.3%) patients and 592/1910 (31.0%) unique events were attributed to SLE. In the first 2 years of follow-up the relative risk (95% CI) for SLE NP events was 6.16 (4.96, 7.66) and non-SLE events was 4.66 (4.01, 5.43) compared with thereafter. Patients without SLE NP events at initial assessment had a 74% probability of being event free at 10 years. For non-SLE NP events the estimate was 48%. The majority of NP events resolved over 10 years but mortality was higher in patients with NP events attributed to SLE (16%) versus patients with no NPSLE events (6%) while the rate was comparable in patients with non-SLE NP events (7%) compared with patients with no non-SLE events (6%). Patients with NP events had lower SF-36 summary scores compared with those without NP events and resolved NP states (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

NP events occur most frequently around the diagnosis of SLE. Although the majority of events resolve they are associated with reduced HRQoL and excess mortality. Multistate modelling is well suited for the assessment of NP events in SLE.

Peripheral Nervous System Disease in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: Results From an International Inception Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the frequency, clinical characteristics, associations, and outcomes of different types of peripheral nervous system (PNS) disease in a multiethnic/multiracial, prospective inception cohort of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients.

METHODS

Patients were evaluated annually for 19 neuropsychiatric (NP) events including 7 types of PNS disease. SLE disease activity, organ damage, autoantibodies, and patient and physician assessment of outcome were measured. Time to event and linear regressions were used as appropriate.

RESULTS

Of 1,827 SLE patients, 88.8% were female, and 48.8% were white. The mean ± SD age was 35.1 ± 13.3 years, disease duration at enrollment was 5.6 ± 4.2 months, and follow-up was 7.6 ± 4.6 years. There were 161 PNS events in 139 (7.6%) of 1,827 patients. The predominant events were peripheral neuropathy (66 of 161 [41.0%]), mononeuropathy (44 of 161 [27.3%]), and cranial neuropathy (39 of 161 [24.2%]), and the majority were attributed to SLE. Multivariate Cox regressions suggested longer time to resolution in patients with a history of neuropathy, older age at SLE diagnosis, higher SLE Disease Activity Index 2000 scores, and for peripheral neuropathy versus other neuropathies. Neuropathy was associated with significantly lower Short Form 36 (SF-36) physical and mental component summary scores versus no NP events. According to physician assessment, the majority of neuropathies resolved or improved over time, which was associated with improvements in SF-36 summary scores for peripheral neuropathy and mononeuropathy.

CONCLUSION

PNS disease is an important component of total NPSLE and has a significant negative impact on health-related quality of life. The outcome is favorable for most patients, but our findings indicate that several factors are associated with longer time to resolution.

Use of combined hormonal contraceptives among women with systemic lupus erythematosus with and without medical contraindications to oestrogen

OBJECTIVES

To assess the prevalence of combined hormonal contraceptives (CHCs) in reproductive-age women with SLE with and without possible contraindications and to determine factors associated with their use in the presence of possible contraindications.

METHODS

This observational cohort study included premenopausal women ages 18-45 years enrolled in the SLICC Registry ⩽15 months after SLE onset, with annual assessments spanning 2000-2017. World Health Organization Category 3 or 4 contraindications to CHCs (e.g. hypertension, aPL) were assessed at each study visit. High disease activity (SLEDAI score >12 or use of >0.5 mg/kg/day of prednisone) was considered a relative contraindication.

RESULTS

A total of 927 SLE women contributed 6315 visits, of which 3811 (60%) occurred in the presence of one or more possible contraindication to CHCs. Women used CHCs during 512 (8%) visits, of which 281 (55%) took place in the setting of one or more possible contraindication. The most frequently observed contraindications were aPL (52%), hypertension (34%) and migraine with aura (22%). Women with one or more contraindication were slightly less likely to be taking CHCs [7% of visits (95% CI 7, 8)] than women with no contraindications [9% (95% CI 8, 10)].

CONCLUSION

CHC use was low compared with general population estimates (>35%) and more than half of CHC users had at least one possible contraindication. Many yet unmeasured factors, including patient preferences, may have contributed to these observations. Further work should also aim to clarify outcomes associated with this exposure.

Evaluating the Properties of a Frailty Index and Its Association With Mortality Risk Among Patients With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the properties of a frailty index (FI), constructed using data from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort, as a novel health measure in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).

METHODS

For this secondary analysis, the baseline visit was defined as the first study visit at which both organ damage (SLICC/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index [SDI]) and health-related quality of life (Short-Form 36 [SF-36] scores) were assessed. The SLICC-FI was constructed using baseline data. The SLICC-FI comprises 48 health deficits, including items related to organ damage, disease activity, comorbidities, and functional status. Content, construct, and criterion validity of the SLICC-FI were assessed. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate the association between baseline SLICC-FI values and mortality risk, adjusting for demographic and clinical factors.

RESULTS

In the baseline data set of 1,683 patients with SLE, 89% were female, the mean ± SD age was 35.7 ± 13.4 years, and the mean ± SD disease duration was 18.8 ± 15.7 months. At baseline, the mean ± SD SLICC-FI score was 0.17 ± 0.08 (range 0-0.51). Baseline SLICC-FI values exhibited the expected measurement properties and were weakly correlated with baseline SDI scores (r = 0.26, P < 0.0001). Higher baseline SLICC-FI values (per 0.05 increment) were associated with increased mortality risk (hazard ratio 1.59, 95% confidence interval 1.35-1.87), after adjusting for age, sex, steroid use, ethnicity/region, and baseline SDI scores.

CONCLUSION

The SLICC-FI demonstrates internal validity as a health measure in SLE and might be used to predict future mortality risk. The SLICC-FI is potentially valuable for quantifying vulnerability among patients with SLE, and adds to existing prognostic scores.

Construction of a Frailty Index as a Novel Health Measure in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

OBJECTIVE

To construct a Frailty Index (FI) as a measure of vulnerability to adverse outcomes among patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), using data from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort.

METHODS

The SLICC inception cohort consists of recently diagnosed patients with SLE followed annually with clinical and laboratory assessments. For this analysis, the baseline visit was defined as the first study visit at which sufficient information was available for construction of an FI. Following a standard procedure, variables from the SLICC database were evaluated as potential health deficits. Selected health deficits were then used to generate a SLICC-FI. The prevalence of frailty in the baseline dataset was evaluated using established cutpoints for FI values.

RESULTS

The 1683 patients with SLE (92.1% of the overall cohort) eligible for inclusion in the baseline dataset were mostly female (89%) with mean (SD) age 35.7 (13.4) years and mean (SD) disease duration 18.8 (15.7) months at baseline. Of 222 variables, 48 met criteria for inclusion in the SLICC-FI. Mean (SD) SLICC-FI was 0.17 (0.08) with a range from 0 to 0.51. At baseline, 27.1% (95% CI 25.0-29.2) of patients were classified as frail, based on SLICC-FI values > 0.21.

CONCLUSION

The SLICC inception cohort permits feasible construction of an FI for use in patients with SLE. Even in a relatively young cohort of patients with SLE, frailty was common. The SLICC-FI may be a useful tool for identifying patients with SLE who are most vulnerable to adverse outcomes, but validation of this index is required prior to its use.

Psychosis in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: Results From an International Inception Cohort Study

Objective

To determine, in a large, multiethnic/multiracial, prospective inception cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), the frequency, attribution, clinical, and autoantibody associations with lupus psychosis and the short‐ and long‐term outcomes as assessed by physicians and patients.

Methods

Patients were evaluated annually for 19 neuropsychiatric (NP) events including psychosis. Scores on the Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index 2000, the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index, and the Short Form 36 (SF‐36) were recorded. Time to event and linear regressions were used as appropriate.

Results

Of 1,826 SLE patients, 88.8% were female and 48.8% were Caucasian. The mean ± SD age was 35.1 ± 13.3 years, the mean ± SD disease duration was 5.6 ± 4.2 months, and the mean ± SD follow‐up period was 7.4 ± 4.5 years. There were 31 psychotic events in 28 of 1,826 patients (1.53%), and most patients had a single event (26 of 28 [93%]). In the majority of patients (20 of 25 [80%]) and events (28 of 31 [90%]), psychosis was attributed to SLE, usually either in the year prior to or within 3 years of SLE diagnosis. Positive associations (hazard ratios [HRs] and 95% confidence intervals [95% CIs]) with lupus psychosis were previous SLE NP events (HR 3.59 [95% CI 1.16–11.14]), male sex (HR 3.0 [95% CI 1.20–7.50]), younger age at SLE diagnosis (per 10 years) (HR 1.45 [95% CI 1.01–2.07]), and African ancestry (HR 4.59 [95% CI 1.79–11.76]). By physician assessment, most psychotic events resolved by the second annual visit following onset, in parallel with an improvement in patient‐reported SF‐36 summary and subscale scores.

Conclusion

Psychosis is an infrequent manifestation of NPSLE. Generally, it occurs early after SLE onset and has a significant negative impact on health status. As determined by patient and physician report, the short‐ and long‐term outlooks are good for most patients, although careful follow‐up is required.

Osteopontin and Disease Activity in Patients with Recent-onset Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: Results from the SLICC Inception Cohort

OBJECTIVE

In cross-sectional studies, elevated osteopontin (OPN) levels have been proposed to reflect, and/or precede, progressive organ damage and disease severity in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We aimed, in a cohort of patients with recent-onset SLE, to determine whether raised serum OPN levels precede damage and/or are associated with disease activity or certain disease phenotypes.

METHODS

We included 344 patients from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) Inception Cohort who had 5 years of followup data available. All patients fulfilled the 1997 American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria. Baseline sera from patients and from age- and sex-matched population-based controls were analyzed for OPN using ELISA. Disease activity and damage were assessed at each annual followup visit using the SLE Disease Activity Index 2000 (SLEDAI-2K) and the SLICC/ACR damage index (SDI), respectively.

RESULTS

Compared to controls, baseline OPN was raised 4-fold in SLE cases (p < 0.0001). After relevant adjustments in a binary logistic regression model, OPN levels failed to significantly predict global damage accrual defined as SDI ≥ 1 at 5 years. However, baseline OPN correlated with SLEDAI-2K at enrollment into the cohort (r = 0.27, p < 0.0001), and patients with high disease activity (SLEDAI-2K ≥ 5) had raised serum OPN (p < 0.0001). In addition, higher OPN levels were found in patients with persistent disease activity (p = 0.0006), in cases with renal involvement (p < 0.0001) and impaired estimated glomerular filtration rate (p = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

The performance of OPN to predict development of organ damage was not impressive. However, OPN associated significantly with lupus nephritis and with raised disease activity at enrollment, as well as over time.

Cerebrovascular Events in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: Results From an International Inception Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the frequency, characteristics, and outcomes of cerebrovascular events (CerVEs), as well as clinical and autoantibody associations in a multiethnic/racial inception cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).

METHODS

A total of 1,826 patients were assessed annually for 19 neuropsychiatric (NP) events, including 5 types of CerVEs: 1) stroke, 2) transient ischemia, 3) chronic multifocal ischemia, 4) subarachnoid/intracranial hemorrhage, and 5) sinus thrombosis. Global disease activity (Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease [SLE] Activity Index 2000), damage scores (SLE International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index), and Short Form 36 (SF-36) scores were collected. Time to event, linear and logistic regressions, and multistate models were used as appropriate.

RESULTS

CerVEs were the fourth most frequent NP event: 82 of 1,826 patients had 109 events; of these events, 103 were attributed to SLE, and 44 were identified at the time of enrollment. The predominant events were stroke (60 of 109 patients) and transient ischemia (28 of 109 patients). CerVEs were associated with other NP events attributed to SLE, non-SLE-attributed NP events, African ancestry (at US SLICC sites), and increased organ damage scores. Lupus anticoagulant increased the risk of first stroke and sinus thrombosis and transient ischemic attack. Physician assessment indicated resolution or improvement in the majority of patients, but patients reported sustained reduction in SF-36 summary and subscale scores following a CerVE.

CONCLUSION

CerVEs, the fourth most frequent NP event in SLE, are usually attributable to lupus. In contrast to good physician-reported outcomes, patients reported a sustained reduction in health-related quality of life following a CerVE.

Glucocorticoid use and factors associated with variability in this use in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics Inception Cohort

Objectives

To describe glucocorticoid (GC) use in the SLICC inception cohort and to explore factors associated with GC use. In particular we aimed to assess temporal trends in GC use and to what extent physician-related factors may influence use.

Methods

Patients were recruited within 15 months of diagnosis of SLE from 33 centres between 1999 and 2011 and continue to be reviewed annually. Descriptive statistics were used to detail oral and parenteral GC use. Cross sectional and longitudinal analyses were performed to explore factors associated with GC use at enrolment and over time.

Results

We studied 1700 patients with a mean (s.d.) follow-up duration of 7.26 (3.82) years. Over the entire study period, 1365 (81.3%) patients received oral GCs and 447 (26.3%) received parenteral GCs at some point. GC use was strongly associated with treatment centre, age, race/ethnicity, sex, disease duration and disease activity. There was no change in the proportion of patients on GCs or the average doses of GC used over time according to year of diagnosis.

Conclusion

GCs remain a cornerstone in SLE management and there have been no significant changes in their use over the past 10-15 years. While patient and disease factors contribute to the variation in GC use, between-centre differences suggest that physician-related factors also contribute. Evidence-based treatment algorithms are needed to inform a more standardized approach to GC use in SLE.

Nitrated nucleosome levels and neuropsychiatric events in systemic lupus erythematosus; a multi-center retrospective case-control study

Background

In patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) there is no serological test that will reliably distinguish neuropsychiatric (NP) events due to active SLE from those due to other causes. Previously we showed that serum levels of nitrated nucleosomes (NN) were elevated in a small number of patients with NPSLE. Here we measured serum NN in samples from a larger population of patients with SLE and NP events to see whether elevated serum NN could be a marker for NPSLE.

Methods

We obtained serum samples from patients in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborative Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort. This included 216 patients with NP events and two matched controls with SLE but no NP events for each of these patients. For the NP patients we tested samples taken before, during and after the NP event.

Results

Twenty-six patients had events attributed to SLE according to the most stringent SLICC attribution rule. In these patients there was no association between onset of event and elevated serum NN. In 190 patients in whom events were not attributed to SLE by the SLICC rules, median serum NN was elevated at the onset of event (P = 0.006). The predominant clinical features in this group of 190 patients were headache, mood disorders and anxiety.

Conclusions

Serum NN levels rise at the time of an NP event in a proportion of patients with SLE. Further studies are needed to determine the value of serum NN as a biomarker for NPSLE.

Study of Flare Assessment in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Based on Paper Patients

Objective

To determine the level of agreement of disease flare severity (distinguishing severe, moderate, and mild flare and persistent disease activity) in a large paper‐patient exercise involving 988 individual cases of systemic lupus erythematosus.

Methods

A total of 988 individual lupus case histories were assessed by 3 individual physicians. Complete agreement about the degree of flare (or persistent disease activity) was obtained in 451 cases (46%), and these provided the reference standard for the second part of the study. This component used 3 flare activity instruments (the British Isles Lupus Assessment Group [BILAG] 2004, Safety of Estrogens in Lupus Erythematosus National Assessment [SELENA] flare index [SFI] and the revised SELENA flare index [rSFI]). The 451 patient case histories were distributed to 18 pairs of physicians, carefully randomized in a manner designed to ensure a fair case mix and equal distribution of flare according to severity.

Results

The 3‐physician assessment of flare matched the level of flare using the 3 indices, with 67% for BILAG 2004, 72% for SFI, and 70% for rSFI. The corresponding weighted kappa coefficients for each instrument were 0.82, 0.59, and 0.74, respectively. We undertook a detailed analysis of the discrepant cases and several factors emerged, including a tendency to score moderate flares as severe and persistent activity as flare, especially when the SFI and rSFI instruments were used. Overscoring was also driven by scoring treatment change as flare, even if there were no new or worsening clinical features.

Conclusion

Given the complexity of assessing lupus flare, we were encouraged by the overall results reported. However, the problem of capturing lupus flare accurately is not completely solved.

Assessment of Risk Factors for Bone Disease in Renal Transplant Recipients

Background

Renal allograft recipients are at increased risk of osteoporosis and fractures because of their multiple risk factors for reduced bone mineral density (BMD).

Objective

To retrospectively assess the risk factors that may predispose renal transplant recipients to reduced BMD.

Methods

Thirty-one consecutive renal allograft recipients who had their hip and spine BMD measured by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry were evaluated. Individual patient medical records were reviewed for risk factors including demographics, laboratory parameters, glucocorticoid use, medical history, physical activity, and gonadal status. Fisher's exact test and Kruskal-Wallis chi-square approximations were used to compare BMD groups (p < 0.05). Analysis of variance with a Bonferroni adjustment was used to compare differences between BMD groups (p = 0.01) Linear regression analysis was used to correlate BMD with clinical parameters.

Results

A trend for younger patients (mean 43 y) to have osteoporosis and older patients (mean 54 y) to be osteopenic (p = 0.056) was seen. Higher body weight (p = 0.003) and higher creatinine clearance (p = 0.008) were associated with normal BMD results. Linear regression analysis showed a strong correlation between hip and spine BMD and creatinine clearance. Our data failed to show a statistical relationship between cumulative glucocorticoid dose or daily doses of greater than 7.5 mg and lower BMD. Neither male gender nor premenopausal status seemed to provide protection from reduced BMD.

Conclusions

These results suggest that all renal allograft recipients, regardless of age, gender, or hormonal status, may be at risk for the development of osteoporosis.

A Longitudinal Analysis of Outcomes of Lupus Nephritis in an International Inception Cohort Using a Multistate Model Approach

OBJECTIVE

To study bidirectional change and predictors of change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and proteinuria in lupus nephritis (LN) using a multistate modeling approach.

METHODS

Patients in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics inception cohort were classified annually into estimated GFR state 1 (>60 ml/minute), state 2 (30-60 ml/minute), or state 3 (<30 ml/minute) and estimated proteinuria state 1 (<0.25 gm/day), state 2 (0.25-3.0 gm/day), or state 3 (>3.0 gm/day), or end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or death. Using multistate modeling, relative transition rates between states indicated improvement and deterioration.

RESULTS

Of 1,826 lupus patients, 700 (38.3%) developed LN. During a mean ± SD follow-up of 5.2 ± 3.5 years, the likelihood of improvement in estimated GFR and estimated proteinuria was greater than the likelihood of deterioration. After 5 years, 62% of patients initially in estimated GFR state 3 and 11% of patients initially in estimated proteinuria state 3 transitioned to ESRD. The probability of remaining in the initial states 1, 2, and 3 was 85%, 11%, and 3%, respectively, for estimated GFR and 62%, 29%, and 4%, respectively, for estimated proteinuria. Male sex predicted improvement in estimated GFR states; older age, race/ethnicity, higher estimated proteinuria state, and higher renal biopsy chronicity scores predicted deterioration. For estimated proteinuria, race/ethnicity, earlier calendar years, damage scores without renal variables, and higher renal biopsy chronicity scores predicted deterioration; male sex, presence of lupus anticoagulant, class V nephritis, and mycophenolic acid use predicted less improvement.

CONCLUSION

In LN, the expected improvement or deterioration in renal outcomes can be estimated by multistate modeling and is preceded by identifiable risk factors. New therapeutic interventions for LN should meet or exceed these expectations.

Mycophenylate mofetil: what role in the treatment of lupus?

Improved patient survival following lupus nephritis with the institution of corticosteroids, immunosuppressants and renal replacement therapy allows greater emphasis on long-term management issues. In particular, the recent focus has been on therapies to treat nephritis with fewer adverse effects of cyclophosphamide-including immunosuppressive regimens. Mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) has been used in the field of transplantation for more than 10 years. Following initial anecdotal reports describing benefits of MMF in the treatment of lupus nephritis, randomized, controlled trials have established a role for MMF in the treatment of lupus nephritis. MMF use to treat other lupus manifestations has been evaluated only in anecdotal case reports or series with few well-designed trials. Issues complicating clinical trial design in lupus including appropriate use and interpretation of activity and damage indices, comparable remission and response criteria and stratification of high risk populations have been the subject of much discussion and emerging consensus. As long-term outcomes in lupus improve, the toxicity of therapy and risk of relapse become increasingly important determinants of choice of therapeutic agents.

Impact of concomitant medication use on belimumab efficacy and safety in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus

Practicing physicians have requested efficacy and safety data for belimumab, when used with specific systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) medications. This was a post hoc analysis of pooled efficacy and safety data from patients who received belimumab 10 mg/kg plus standard of care (SoC) or placebo (SoC) in two Phase III, randomized trials, BLISS-52 and BLISS-76. Patients were categorized into four groups based on baseline concomitant medication usage: steroids only; antimalarials (AM) only; steroids + AM; or steroids + AM + immunosuppressants (IS). The primary endpoint was the SLE Responder Index (SRI) at Week 52. SRI over time and individual SRI components were secondary endpoints. Time to first flare and changes in concomitant medications were exploratory endpoints. Safety was assessed using adverse event (AE) reporting. Across 834 patients, steroids + AM was the largest group (n = 346, 41.5%) and AM only was the smallest (n = 77, 9.2%). Disease duration was shortest in the steroids + AM group (5.7 years vs 6.4–7.1 years); SELENA-SLEDAI scores were similar across groups. At Week 52, the percentage of SRI responders was greatest in the steroids + AM group for belimumab 10 mg/kg (59%) compared with placebo (44%); treatment response and SRI component improvements were also observed across other groups. The probability of experiencing an SLE flare was reduced in the steroids-only group for patients who received belimumab 10 mg/kg compared with placebo (64.3% vs 78.1%; hazard ratio 0.64; 95% confidence interval: 0.42–0.96). There was little or no change in daily AM or IS dose in any group. For all groups, there was a general decrease in steroid dose over time; a quarter to a third of patients experienced decreased steroid doses at Week 52. The overall safety profile was similar across treatment arms and concomitant medication groups, with the exception of serious AEs in the steroids + AM group (belimumab 10 mg/kg 16%, placebo 8%). The efficacy and safety of belimumab in combination with SoC was demonstrated for various groupings of steroids, AM and IS. These findings may improve the understanding of the safety and efficacy of adding belimumab to different treatments.

Clinical manifestations and coronary artery disease risk factors at diagnosis of systemic lupus erythematosus: data from an international inception cohort

Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) comprises 27 centres from 11 countries. An inception cohort of 918 SLE patients has been assembled according to a standardized protocol between 2000 and 2006. Clinical features, classic coronary artery disease (CAD) risk factors, as well as other potential risk factors were collected. Of the 918 patients 89% were females, and of multi racial origin. Less than half the patients were living in a permanent relationship, 58% had post secondary education and 51% were employed. Eight percent had family history of SLE. At enrolment, with at mean age of diagnosis of 34.5 years, a significant number of patients already had CAD risk factors, such as hypertension (33%) and hypercholesterolemia (36%). Only 15% of the patients were postmenopausal, 16% were current smokers and 3.6% had diabetes at entry to the SLICC-RAS (Registry for Atherosclerosis). A number of patients in this multi-racial, multi-ethnic inception cohort of lupus patients have classic CAD risk factors within a mean of 5.4 months from diagnosis. This cohort will be increased to 1500 patients to be followed yearly for 10 years. This will provide a unique opportunity to evaluate risk factors for accelerated atherosclerosis in SLE. Lupus (2007) 16, 731—735.

The impact of tabalumab on the kidney in systemic lupus erythematosus: results from two phase 3 randomized, clinical trials

INTRODUCTION

Tabalumab is a monoclonal antibody that neutralizes membrane and soluble B-cell activating factor. Two 52-week, randomized, double-blind, placebo controlled phase 3 trials evaluated the safety and efficacy of tabalumab in systemic lupus erythematosus.

METHODS

Patients with moderate to severe active systemic lupus erythematosus (without severe active lupus nephritis) were randomly assigned 1:1:1 to receive tabalumab (120 mg subcutaneously every 2 or 4 weeks) or placebo for 52 weeks. Serum creatinine concentration, estimated glomerular filtration rate, urine protein/creatinine ratio, renal flares and renal adverse events were determined monthly. Data were analyzed for the intent-to-treat population and for intent-to-treat patients with baseline urine protein/creatinine ratio >20 mg/mmol (intent-to-treat plus urine protein/creatinine ratio).

RESULTS

The trials enrolled 2262 patients. At baseline, demographics, systemic lupus erythematosus disease activity, serum creatinine concentration, estimated glomerular filtration rate and urine protein/creatinine ratio were similar among the treatment arms (with the exception of disease duration). In the intent-to-treat and intent-to-treat plus urine protein/creatinine ratio populations, there were no differences between the arms in the baseline-to-endpoint change in serum creatinine concentration, glomerular filtration rate, urine protein/creatinine ratio, or renal flare rates. Tabalumab resulted in a significant B-cell reduction and decreased immunoglobulin G levels at both doses.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to placebo, tabalumab did not significantly affect the serum creatinine concentration, glomerular filtration rate, urine protein/creatinine ratio, or renal flare rates over 1 year in intent-to-treat or intent-to-treat plus urine protein/creatinine ratio patients. There were no significant renal safety signals.ClinicalTrials.gov identifiers: NCT01205438 and NCT01196091 Lupus (2016) 25, 1597-1601.

Immune cells and type 1 IFN in urine of SLE patients correlate with immunopathology in the kidney

The immunopathological events in the kidneys of lupus nephritis (LN) patients are poorly understood due in part to the difficulty in acquiring serial biopsies and the inherent limitations in their analysis. To identify a means to circumvent these limitations, we investigated whether immune cells of kidney origin are present in patient urine and whether they correlate with kidney pathology. Flow cytometry analysis was performed on peripheral blood and urine cells of 69 SLE patients, of whom 41 were LN patients. In addition, type I IFN (IFNα/β) levels were determined in plasma and urine by bioassay. Approximately 60% of non-LN patients had urine lymphocytes. In these patients, T cells were always present and predominantly CD8(+), while B cells were either absent or a mixture of naïve and memory B cells. In contrast, >90% of LN patients had urine lymphocytes. In half, the B and T cells resembled those in non-LN patient urine; however, in the remaining patients, the B cells were exclusively Ig-secreting plasmablasts or plasma cells (PB/PCs) and the T cells were predominantly CD4(+). In addition, pDCs and IFNα/β frequently accompanied PB/PCs. The majority of patients with urine PB/PCs presented with proliferative nephritis and a significant loss of kidney function, which in some cases had progressed to end stage renal disease (ESRD). In conclusion, urine can provide access to cells of kidney resident populations for phenotypic and functional characterization. Analysis of these cells provides insight into the kidney immunopathology and may serve as biomarkers to identify patients at risk for developing LN and progressing to ESRD.

Mood Disorders in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: Results From an International Inception Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

To examine the frequency, characteristics, and outcome of mood disorders, as well as clinical and autoantibody associations, in a multiethnic/racial, prospective inception cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).

METHODS

Patients were assessed annually for mood disorders (4 types, according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition) and 18 other neuropsychiatric events. Global disease activity scores (SLE Disease Activity Index 2000 [SLEDAI-2K]), damage scores (Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index [SDI]), and Short Form 36 subscales, mental and physical component summary scores were collected. Time to event, linear and ordinal regressions, and multi-state models were used as appropriate.

RESULTS

Among the 1,827 patients with SLE, 88.9% were female, and 48.9% were Caucasian. The mean ± SD age of the patients was 35.1 ± 13.3 years, disease duration was 5.6 ± 4.8 months, and the length of followup was 4.7 ± 3.5 years. During the course of the study, 863 (47.2%) of the 1,827 patients had 1,627 neuropsychiatric events. Mood disorders occurred in 232 (12.7%) of 1,827 patients, and 98 (38.3%) of 256 mood disorder events were attributed to SLE. The estimated cumulative incidence of any mood disorder after 10 years was 17.7% (95% confidence interval 15.1, 20.2%). A greater risk of mood disorder was associated with concurrent neuropsychiatric events (P ≤ 0.01), and a lower risk was associated with Asian race/ethnicity (P = 0.01) and treatment with immunosuppressive drugs (P = 0.003). Mood disorders were associated with lower mental health and mental component summary scores but not with the SLEDAI-2K, SDI, or lupus autoantibodies. Among the 232 patients with depression, 168 (72.4%) were treated with antidepressants. One hundred twenty-six (49.2%) of 256 mood disorders resolved in 117 (50.4%) of 232 patients.

CONCLUSION

Mood disorders, the second most frequent neuropsychiatric event in patients with SLE, have a negative impact on health-related quality of life and improve over time. The lack of association with global SLE disease activity, cumulative organ damage, and lupus autoantibodies emphasizes the multifactorial etiology of mood disorders and a role for non-lupus-specific therapies.

The frequency and outcome of lupus nephritis: results from an international inception cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To determine nephritis outcomes in a prospective multi-ethnic/racial SLE inception cohort.

METHODS

Patients in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics inception cohort (≤15 months of SLE diagnosis) were assessed annually for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), proteinuria and end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Health-related quality of life was measured by the Short Form (36 questions) health survey questionnaire (SF-36) subscales, mental and physical component summary scores.

RESULTS

There were 1827 patients, 89% females, mean (s.d.) age 35.1 (13.3) years. The mean (s.d.) SLE duration at enrolment was 0.5 (0.3) years and follow-up 4.6 (3.4) years. LN occurred in 700 (38.3%) patients: 566/700 (80.9%) at enrolment and 134/700 (19.1%) during follow-up. Patients with nephritis were younger, more frequently men and of African, Asian and Hispanic race/ethnicity. The estimated overall 10-year incidence of ESRD was 4.3% (95% CI: 2.8%, 5.8%), and with nephritis was 10.1% (95% CI: 6.6%, 13.6%). Patients with nephritis had a higher risk of death (HR = 2.98, 95% CI: 1.48, 5.99; P = 0.002) and those with eGFR <30 ml/min at diagnosis had lower SF-36 physical component summary scores (P < 0.01) and lower Physical function, Physical role and Bodily pain scores. Over time, patients with abnormal eGFR and proteinuria had lower SF-36 mental component summary (P ≤ 0.02) scores compared to patients with normal values.

CONCLUSION

LN occurred in 38.3% of SLE patients, frequently as the initial presentation, in a large multi-ethnic inception cohort. Despite current standard of care, nephritis was associated with ESRD and death, and renal insufficiency was linked to lower health-related quality of life. Further advances are required for the optimal treatment of LN.

Factors associated with damage accrual in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: results from the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) Inception Cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

We studied damage accrual and factors determining development and progression of damage in an international cohort of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients.

METHODS

The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) Inception Cohort recruited patients within 15 months of developing four or more 1997 American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria for SLE; the SLICC/ACR damage index (SDI) was measured annually. We assessed relative rates of transition using maximum likelihood estimation in a multistate model. The Kaplan-Meier method estimated the probabilities for time to first increase in SDI score and Cox regression analysis was used to assess mortality.

RESULTS

We recruited 1722 patients; mean (SD) age 35.0 (13.4) years at cohort entry. Patients with damage at enrolment were more likely to have further worsening of SDI (SDI 0 vs ≥1; p<0.001). Age, USA African race/ethnicity, SLEDAI-2K score, steroid use and hypertension were associated with transition from no damage to damage, and increase(s) in pre-existing damage. Male gender (relative transition rates (95% CI) 1.48 (1.06 to 2.08)) and USA Caucasian race/ethnicity (1.63 (1.08 to 2.47)) were associated with SDI 0 to ≥1 transitions; Asian race/ethnicity patients had lower rates of new damage (0.60 (0.39 to 0.93)). Antimalarial use was associated with lower rates of increases in pre-existing damage (0.63 (0.44 to 0.89)). Damage was associated with future mortality (HR (95% CI) 1.46 (1.18 to 1.81) per SDI point).

CONCLUSIONS

Damage in SLE predicts future damage accrual and mortality. We identified several potentially modifiable risk factors for damage accrual; an integrated strategy to address these may improve long-term outcomes.

Comparison and evaluation of lupus nephritis response criteria in lupus activity indices and clinical trials

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a systemic autoimmune disease with diverse manifestations. Although the approval of new therapies includes only one agent in 50 years, a number of promising new drugs are in development. Lupus nephritis is a dreaded complication of SLE as it is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Advancing the treatment of lupus nephritis requires well-designed clinical trials and this can be challenging in SLE. The major obstacles involve identifying the correct population of patients to enroll and ensuring that a clinically appropriate and patient-centered endpoint is being measured. In this review, we will first discuss the clinical utility of endpoints chosen to represent lupus nephritis in global disease activity scales. Second, we will review completed and active trials focused on lupus nephritis and discuss the endpoints chosen. There are many important lessons to be learned from existing assessment tools and clinical trials. Reviewing these points will help ensure that future efforts will yield meaningful disease activity measures and well-designed clinical trials to advance our understanding of lupus management.

Electrocardiographic findings in systemic lupus erythematosus: data from an international inception cohort

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the early prevalence of various electrocardiographic (EKG) abnormalities in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and to evaluate possible associations between repolarization changes (increased corrected QT [QTc] and QT dispersion [QTd]) and clinical and laboratory variables, including the anti-Ro/SSA level and specificity (52 or 60 kd).

METHODS

We studied adult SLE patients from 19 centers participating in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) Inception Registry. Demographics, disease activity (Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index 2000 [SLEDAI-2K]), disease damage (SLICC/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index [SDI]), and laboratory data from the baseline or first followup visit were assessed. Multivariate logistic and linear regression models were used to asses for any cross-sectional associations between anti-Ro/SSA and EKG repolarization abnormalities.

RESULTS

For the 779 patients included, mean ± SD age was 35.2 ± 13.8 years, 88.4% were women, and mean ± SD disease duration was 10.5 ± 14.5 months. Mean ± SD SLEDAI-2K score was 5.4 ± 5.6 and mean ± SD SDI score was 0.5 ± 1.0. EKG abnormalities were frequent and included nonspecific ST-T changes (30.9%), possible left ventricular hypertrophy (5.4%), and supraventricular arrhythmias (1.3%). A QTc ≥440 msec was found in 15.3%, while a QTc ≥460 msec was found in 5.3%. Mean ± SD QTd was 34.2 ± 14.7 msec and QTd ≥40 msec was frequent (38.1%). Neither the specificity nor the level of anti-Ro/SSA was associated with QTc duration or QTd, although confidence intervals were wide. Total SDI was significantly associated with a QTc interval exceeding 440 msec (odds ratio 1.38 [95% confidence interval 1.06, 1.79]).

CONCLUSION

A substantial proportion of patients with recent-onset SLE exhibited repolarization abnormalities, although severe abnormalities were rare.

25-hydroxyvitamin D and cardiovascular disease in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: data from a large international inception cohort

OBJECTIVE

An association between 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D; vitamin D) deficiency and increased cardiovascular (CV) risk factors and CV disease (CVD) has been shown in general population studies. Vitamin D deficiency has been noted in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), and CVD is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in SLE. The objectives of this study were to estimate the associations of 25(OH)D levels with CV risk factors and to determine whether low baseline 25(OH)D levels predict future CV events in patients participating in an international inception cohort.

METHODS

Data were collected on 890 participants, including demographics, SLE activity and damage assessments, CV risk factors and events, medications, laboratory assessments of 25(OH)D levels, and inflammatory markers. Multiple logistic and Cox regressions were used to estimate the associations of baseline 25(OH)D levels with baseline CV risk factors and CVD events. The models were adjusted for age, sex, race, season, and country, with and without body mass index.

RESULTS

Patients in the higher quartiles of 25(OH)D were less likely to have hypertension and hyperlipidemia and were more likely to have lower C-reactive protein levels and lower Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index 2000 scores at baseline when compared with the first quartile. Vitamin D levels were not independently associated with CVD event incidence; however, hazard ratios for CVD event incidence decreased with successively higher quartiles.

CONCLUSION

Lower baseline 25(OH)D levels are associated with higher risk for CV risk factors and more active SLE at baseline. There may be a trend toward a lower likelihood of CVD events in those with higher baseline 25(OH)D levels.

Anti-C1q antibodies in systemic lupus erythematosus

OBJECTIVE

Anti-C1q has been associated with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and lupus nephritis in previous studies. We studied anti-C1q specificity for SLE (vs rheumatic disease controls) and the association with SLE manifestations in an international multicenter study.

METHODS

Information and blood samples were obtained in a cross-sectional study from patients with SLE (n = 308) and other rheumatologic diseases (n = 389) from 25 clinical sites (84% female, 68% Caucasian, 17% African descent, 8% Asian, 7% other). IgG anti-C1q against the collagen-like region was measured by ELISA.

RESULTS

Prevalence of anti-C1q was 28% (86/308) in patients with SLE and 13% (49/389) in controls (OR = 2.7, 95% CI: 1.8-4, p < 0.001). Anti-C1q was associated with proteinuria (OR = 3.0, 95% CI: 1.7-5.1, p < 0.001), red cell casts (OR = 2.6, 95% CI: 1.2-5.4, p = 0.015), anti-dsDNA (OR = 3.4, 95% CI: 1.9-6.1, p < 0.001) and anti-Smith (OR = 2.8, 95% CI: 1.5-5.0, p = 0.01). Anti-C1q was independently associated with renal involvement after adjustment for demographics, ANA, anti-dsDNA and low complement (OR = 2.3, 95% CI: 1.3-4.2, p < 0.01). Simultaneously positive anti-C1q, anti-dsDNA and low complement was strongly associated with renal involvement (OR = 14.9, 95% CI: 5.8-38.4, p < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Anti-C1q was more common in patients with SLE and those of Asian race/ethnicity. We confirmed a significant association of anti-C1q with renal involvement, independent of demographics and other serologies. Anti-C1q in combination with anti-dsDNA and low complement was the strongest serological association with renal involvement. These data support the usefulness of anti-C1q in SLE, especially in lupus nephritis.

Elevated C-reactive protein and self-reported disease activity in systemic lupus erythematosus

C-reactive protein (CRP), a biomarker of inflammation, has been associated with increased disease activity in rheumatoid arthritis. However, the association in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) remains unclear. We examined the association of CRP with self-reported disease activity in the Carolina Lupus Study and described differences by sociodemographic characteristics. The study included baseline and three-year follow-up data on 107 African-American and 69 Caucasian SLE patients enrolled at a median 13 months since diagnosis. Models estimated prevalence differences in the association of baseline CRP with self-reported flares, adjusting for age, sex, race and education. Active disease or flare was reported by 59% at baseline and 58% at follow-up. Higher CRP (>10 µg/ml vs. <3 µg/ml) was associated with a 17% (95% confidence interval (CI): -20, 53%) higher prevalence of flare at baseline and a 26% (95% CI: -9, 62%) higher prevalence of flare at follow-up. These CRP-flare associations were notably stronger in patients with lower education at baseline and in African-Americans at follow-up. These findings suggest that CRP may be a useful marker in studies of SLE health disparities.

Impact of early disease factors on metabolic syndrome in systemic lupus erythematosus: data from an international inception cohort

BACKGROUND

The metabolic syndrome (MetS) may contribute to the increased cardiovascular risk in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We examined the association between MetS and disease activity, disease phenotype and corticosteroid exposure over time in patients with SLE.

METHODS

Recently diagnosed (<15 months) patients with SLE from 30 centres across 11 countries were enrolled into the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) Inception Cohort from 2000 onwards. Baseline and annual assessments recorded clinical, laboratory and therapeutic data. A longitudinal analysis of factors associated with MetS in the first 2 years of follow-up was performed using random effects logistic regression.

RESULTS

We studied 1150 patients with a mean (SD) age of 34.9 (13.6) years and disease duration at enrolment of 24.2 (18.0) weeks. In those with complete data, MetS prevalence was 38.2% at enrolment, 34.8% at year 1 and 35.4% at year 2. In a multivariable random effects model that included data from all visits, prior MetS status, baseline renal disease, SLICC Damage Index >1, higher disease activity, increasing age and Hispanic or Black African race/ethnicity were independently associated with MetS over the first 2 years of follow-up in the cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

MetS is a persistent phenotype in a significant proportion of patients with SLE. Renal lupus, active inflammatory disease and damage are SLE-related factors that drive MetS development while antimalarial agents appear to be protective from early in the disease course.

American College of Rheumatology criteria at inception, and accrual over 5 years in the SLICC inception cohort

OBJECTIVE

To determine the frequency of each American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criterion met at time of enrollment, and the increase in each of the criteria over 5 years.

METHODS

In 2000 the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) recruited an international inception cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE; ≥ 4 ACR criteria) who were followed at yearly intervals according to a standard protocol. Descriptive statistics were used to assess the total and cumulative number of ACR criteria met at each visit. Regression models were done to compare the increase of individual and cumulative criteria as a function of race/ethnicity group, and sex.

RESULTS

In all, 768 patients have been followed for a minimum of 5 years. Overall, 59.1% of the patients had an increase in the number of ACR criteria they met over the 5-year period. The mean number of ACR criteria met at enrollment was 5.04 ± 1.13 and at year 5 was 6.03 ± 1.42. At enrollment, nonwhite patients had a higher number of ACR criteria (5.19 ± 1.23) than white patients. The total number of criteria increased in both white and nonwhite ethnicities, but increased more among whites. Males had a slightly lower number of criteria at enrollment compared to females and males accrued fewer criteria at 5 years.

CONCLUSION

In this international inception cohort of SLE patients with at least 4 ACR criteria at entry, there was an accumulation of ACR criteria over the following 5 years. The distribution of criteria both at inception and over 5 years is affected by sex and ethnicity.

Lymphoma risk in systemic lupus: effects of disease activity versus treatment

OBJECTIVE

To examine disease activity versus treatment as lymphoma risk factors in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).

METHODS

We performed case-cohort analyses within a multisite SLE cohort. Cancers were ascertained by regional registry linkages. Adjusted HRs for lymphoma were generated in regression models, for time-dependent exposures to immunomodulators (cyclophosphamide, azathioprine, methotrexate, mycophenolate, antimalarial drugs, glucocorticoids) demographics, calendar year, Sjogren's syndrome, SLE duration and disease activity. We used adjusted mean SLE Disease Activity Index scores (SLEDAI-2K) over time, and drugs were treated both categorically (ever/never) and as estimated cumulative doses.

RESULTS

We studied 75 patients with lymphoma (72 non-Hodgkin, three Hodgkin) and 4961 cancer-free controls. Most lymphomas were of B-cell origin. As is seen in the general population, lymphoma risk in SLE was higher in male than female patients and increased with age. Lymphomas occurred a mean of 12.4 years (median 10.9) after SLE diagnosis. Unadjusted and adjusted analyses failed to show a clear association of disease activity with lymphoma risk. There was a suggestion of greater exposure to cyclophosphamide and to higher cumulative steroids in lymphoma cases than the cancer-free controls.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large SLE sample, there was a suggestion of higher lymphoma risk with exposure to cyclophosphamide and high cumulative steroids. Disease activity itself was not clearly associated with lymphoma risk. Further work will focus on genetic profiles that might interact with medication exposure to influence lymphoma risk in SLE.