The Use of Evidence to Design an Essential Package of Health Services in Pakistan: A Review and Analysis of Prioritisation Decisions at Different Stages of the Appraisal Process

BACKGROUND

Pakistan embarked on a process of designing an essential package of health services (EPHS) as a pathway towards universal health coverage (UHC). The EPHS design followed an evidence-informed deliberative process; evidence on 170 interventions was introduced along multiple stages of appraisal engaging different stakeholders tasked with prioritising interventions for inclusion. We report on the composition of the package at different stages, analyse trends of prioritised and deprioritised interventions and reflect on the trade-offs made.

METHODS

Quantitative evidence on cost-effectiveness, budget impact, and avoidable burden of disease was presented to stakeholders in stages. We recorded which interventions were prioritised and deprioritised at each stage and carried out three analyses: (1) a review of total number of interventions prioritised at each stage, along with associated costs per capita and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted, to understand changes in affordability and efficiency in the package, (2) an analysis of interventions broken down by decision criteria and intervention characteristics to analyse prioritisation trends across different stages, and (3) a description of the trajectory of interventions broken down by current coverage and cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

Value for money generally increased throughout the process, although not uniformly. Stakeholders largely prioritised interventions with low budget impact and those preventing a high burden of disease. Highly cost-effective interventions were also prioritised, but less consistently throughout the stages of the process. Interventions with high current coverage were overwhelmingly prioritised for inclusion.

CONCLUSION

Evidence-informed deliberative processes can produce actionable and affordable health benefit packages. While cost-effective interventions are generally preferred, other factors play a role and limit efficiency.

Predictors of Uptake of Rotavirus Vaccination Amongst Disadvantaged Communities in Pakistan

Introduction. Pakistan has the highest childhood mortality associated with diarrheal diseases. The objective of this study is to identify underlying factors contributing to lack of knowledge among mothers regarding vaccine's efficacy in the prevention of diarrhea. Methodology. Secondary data was analyzed from a cross-sectional household survey in Northern Pakistan of eligible households having under-2-year children. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were carried out. Results. Only 30% of the mothers had knowledge regarding diarrhea prevention by vaccine. The main factors found significantly correlated with this knowledge were mother's education, distance of households from EPI centers, immunization status of children, counseling regarding clean drinking water and hygiene, provision of ORS, and antenatal care services by LHWs. Conclusion. Women's literacy, access to care and LHW services are important for improving awareness and acceptance of vaccines for vaccine preventable diseases including diarrhea. Policy makers need to focus on improved monitoring and reprioritization of undermined services by LHWs.

Practical strategies to achieve resilient health systems: results from a scoping review

BACKGROUND

This paper presents the results of a systematic review to identify practical strategies to create the institutions, skills, values, and norms that will improve health systems resilience.

METHODS

A PRISMA 2020 compliant systematic review identified peer-reviewed and gray literature on practical strategies to make health systems more resilient. Investigators screened 970 papers to identify 65 English language papers published since 2015.

RESULTS

Practical strategies focus efforts on system changes to improve a health system's resilience components of collective knowing, collective thinking, and collaborative doing. The most helpful studies identified potential lead organizations to serve as the stewards of resilience improvement, and these were commonly in national and local departments of public health. Papers on practical strategies suggested possible measurement tools to benchmark resilience components in efforts to focus on performance improvement and ways to sustain their use. Essential Public Health Function (EPHF) measurement and improvement tools are well-aligned to the resilience agenda. The field of health systems resilience lacks empirical trials linking resilience improvement interventions to outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The rigorous assessment of practical strategies to improve resilience based on cycles of measurement should be a high priority.

Costing Interventions for Developing an Essential Package of Health Services: Application of a Rapid Method and Results From Pakistan

BACKGROUND

The Federal Ministry of National Health Services, Regulations and Coordination (MNHSR&C) in Pakistan has committed to progress towards universal health coverage (UHC) by 2030 by providing an Essential Package of Health Services (EPHS). Starting in 2019, the Disease Control Priorities 3rd edition (DCP3) evidence framework was used to guide the development of Pakistan's EPHS. In this paper, we describe the methods and results of a rapid costing approach used to inform the EPHS design process.

METHODS

A total of 167 unit costs were calculated through a context-specific, normative, ingredients-based, and bottom-up economic costing approach. Costs were constructed by determining resource use from descriptions provided by MNHSR&C and validated by technical experts. Price data from publicly available sources were used. Deterministic univariate sensitivity analyses were carried out.

RESULTS

Unit costs ranged from 2019 US$ 0.27 to 2019 US$ 1478. Interventions in the cancer package of services had the highest average cost (2019 US$ 837) while interventions in the environmental package of services had the lowest (2019 US$ 0.68). Cost drivers varied by platform; the two largest drivers were drug regimens and surgery-related costs. Sensitivity analyses suggest our results are not sensitive to changes in staff salary but are sensitive to changes in medicine pricing.

CONCLUSION

We estimated a large number of context-specific unit costs, over a six-month period, demonstrating a rapid costing method suitable for EPHS design.

Listening to Caregivers: Narratives of Health Seeking for Children Under Five with Pneumonia and Diarrhea: Insights from the NIGRAAN Trial in Pakistan

Background

Understanding health-seeking behaviors of caregivers is important to reduce child mortality. Several factors influence decision-making related to childhood illnesses.

Objective

The objective of this study was to gather caretaker narratives to develop a comprehensive understanding of the context and process of caregiving at household level during all stages of an episode of diarrhea and pneumonia in children <5.

Methods

Using a narrative interview approach, stories from caregivers of children <5 were collected from a rural district in Sindh Pakistan. Eleven households with children <5 were randomly selected and purposive sampling was done to interview 20 caregivers. All data collection was conducted privately in participants' homes and informed consent taken. Manual content analysis was carried out by three independent researchers and emerging themes drawn.

Results

The role of joint family system is integral in making decisions and the child's paternal grandmother, is an important and trusted source of information regarding child sickness in the household. They often promote home remedies with considerable authority prior to formal consultation with the health care system. Caregivers were generally dissatisfied with doctors in the public sector who were perceived to be providing free consultation with a poor quality of care and long waiting time as compared to private doctors. Financial considerations and child support were favorably addressed in households with a joint family system.

Conclusion

The joint family system provides a strong support system, but also tends to reduce parental autonomy in decision-making and delay first contact with formal health providers. Prevalent home remedies, and authority of elders in the family influence management practices. Interventions for reducing improving child mortality should be cognizant of the context of decision-making and social influences at the household level.

Post-intervention acceptability of multicomponent intervention for management of hypertension in rural Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka- a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

COBRA-BPS (Control of Blood Pressure and Risk Attenuation-Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka), a multicomponent, community health-worker (CHW)-led hypertension management program, has been shown to be effective in rural communities in South Asia. This paper presents the acceptability of COBRA-BPS multicomponent intervention among the key stakeholders.

METHODS

We conducted post-implementation interviews of 87 stakeholder including 23 community health workers (CHWs), 19 physicians and 45 patients in 15 rural communities randomized to COBRA-BPS multicomponent intervention in in Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. We used Theoretical Framework for Acceptability framework (TFA) with a focus on affective attitude, burden, ethicality, intervention coherence, opportunity cost, perceived effectiveness and self-efficacy.

RESULTS

COBRA-BPS multicomponent intervention was acceptable to most stakeholders. Despite some concerns about workload, most CHWs were enthusiastic and felt empowered. Physicians appreciated the training sessions and felt trusted by their patients. Patients were grateful to receive the intervention and valued it. However, patients in Pakistan and Bangladesh expressed the need for supplies of free medicines from the primary health facilities, while those in Sri Lanka were concerned about supplies' irregularities. All stakeholders favoured scaling-up COBRA-BPS at a national level.

CONCLUSIONS

COBRA-BPS multicomponent intervention is acceptable to the key stakeholders in Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Community engagement for national scale-up of COBRA-BPS is likely to be successful in all three countries.

Decision-making processes for essential packages of health services: experience from six countries

Many countries around the world strive for universal health coverage, and an essential packages of health services (EPHS) is a central policy instrument for countries to achieve this. It defines the coverage of services that are made available, as well as the proportion of the costs that are covered from different financial schemes and who can receive these services. This paper reports on the development of an analytical framework on the decision-making process of EPHS revision, and the review of practices of six countries (Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Pakistan, Somalia, Sudan and Zanzibar-Tanzania).The analytical framework distinguishes the practical organisation, fairness and institutionalisation of decision-making processes. The review shows that countries: (1) largely follow a similar practical stepwise process but differ in their implementation of some steps, such as the choice of decision criteria; (2) promote fairness in their EPHS process by involving a range of stakeholders, which in the case of Zanzibar included patients and community members; (3) are transparent in terms of at least some of the steps of their decision-making process and (4) in terms of institutionalisation, express a high degree of political will for ongoing EPHS revision with almost all countries having a designated governing institute for EPHS revision.We advise countries to organise meaningful stakeholder involvement and foster the transparency of the decision-making process, as these are key to fairness in decision-making. We also recommend countries to take steps towards the institutionalisation of their EPHS revision process.

Correction: COVID-19 vaccination in Sindh Province, Pakistan: A modelling study of health impact and cost-effectiveness

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003815.].

Stark choices: exploring health sector costs of policy responses to COVID-19 in low-income and middle-income countries

OBJECTIVES

COVID-19 has altered health sector capacity in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Cost data to inform evidence-based priority setting are urgently needed. Consequently, in this paper, we calculate the full economic health sector costs of COVID-19 clinical management in 79 LMICs under different epidemiological scenarios.

METHODS

We used country-specific epidemiological projections from a dynamic transmission model to determine number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths over 1 year under four mitigation scenarios. We defined the health sector response for three base LMICs through guidelines and expert opinion. We calculated costs through local resource use and price data and extrapolated costs across 79 LMICs. Lastly, we compared cost estimates against gross domestic product (GDP) and total annual health expenditure in 76 LMICs.

RESULTS

COVID-19 clinical management costs vary greatly by country, ranging between <0.1%-12% of GDP and 0.4%-223% of total annual health expenditure (excluding out-of-pocket payments). Without mitigation policies, COVID-19 clinical management costs per capita range from US$43.39 to US$75.57; in 22 of 76 LMICs, these costs would surpass total annual health expenditure. In a scenario of stringent social distancing, costs per capita fall to US$1.10-US$1.32.

CONCLUSIONS

We present the first dataset of COVID-19 clinical management costs across LMICs. These costs can be used to inform decision-making on priority setting. Our results show that COVID-19 clinical management costs in LMICs are substantial, even in scenarios of moderate social distancing. Low-income countries are particularly vulnerable and some will struggle to cope with almost any epidemiological scenario. The choices facing LMICs are likely to remain stark and emergency financial support will be needed.

COVID-19 vaccination in Sindh Province, Pakistan: A modelling study of health impact and cost-effectiveness

BACKGROUND

Multiple Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines appear to be safe and efficacious, but only high-income countries have the resources to procure sufficient vaccine doses for most of their eligible populations. The World Health Organization has published guidelines for vaccine prioritisation, but most vaccine impact projections have focused on high-income countries, and few incorporate economic considerations. To address this evidence gap, we projected the health and economic impact of different vaccination scenarios in Sindh Province, Pakistan (population: 48 million).

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We fitted a compartmental transmission model to COVID-19 cases and deaths in Sindh from 30 April to 15 September 2020. We then projected cases, deaths, and hospitalisation outcomes over 10 years under different vaccine scenarios. Finally, we combined these projections with a detailed economic model to estimate incremental costs (from healthcare and partial societal perspectives), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for each scenario. We project that 1 year of vaccine distribution, at delivery rates consistent with COVAX projections, using an infection-blocking vaccine at $3/dose with 70% efficacy and 2.5-year duration of protection is likely to avert around 0.9 (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.9, 1.0) million cases, 10.1 (95% CrI: 10.1, 10.3) thousand deaths, and 70.1 (95% CrI: 69.9, 70.6) thousand DALYs, with an ICER of $27.9 per DALY averted from the health system perspective. Under a broad range of alternative scenarios, we find that initially prioritising the older (65+) population generally prevents more deaths. However, unprioritised distribution has almost the same cost-effectiveness when considering all outcomes, and both prioritised and unprioritised programmes can be cost-effective for low per-dose costs. High vaccine prices ($10/dose), however, may not be cost-effective, depending on the specifics of vaccine performance, distribution programme, and future pandemic trends. The principal drivers of the health outcomes are the fitted values for the overall transmission scaling parameter and disease natural history parameters from other studies, particularly age-specific probabilities of infection and symptomatic disease, as well as social contact rates. Other parameters are investigated in sensitivity analyses. This study is limited by model approximations, available data, and future uncertainty. Because the model is a single-population compartmental model, detailed impacts of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as household isolation cannot be practically represented or evaluated in combination with vaccine programmes. Similarly, the model cannot consider prioritising groups like healthcare or other essential workers. The model is only fitted to the reported case and death data, which are incomplete and not disaggregated by, e.g., age. Finally, because the future impact and implementation cost of NPIs are uncertain, how these would interact with vaccination remains an open question.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 vaccination can have a considerable health impact and is likely to be cost-effective if more optimistic vaccine scenarios apply. Preventing severe disease is an important contributor to this impact. However, the advantage of prioritising older, high-risk populations is smaller in generally younger populations. This reduction is especially true in populations with more past transmission, and if the vaccine is likely to further impede transmission rather than just disease. Those conditions are typical of many low- and middle-income countries.

Exploring equity in health and poverty impacts of control measures for SARS-CoV-2 in six countries

BACKGROUND

Policy makers need to be rapidly informed about the potential equity consequences of different COVID-19 strategies, alongside their broader health and economic impacts. While there are complex models to inform both potential health and macro-economic impact, there are few tools available to rapidly assess potential equity impacts of interventions.

METHODS

We created an economic model to simulate the impact of lockdown measures in Pakistan, Georgia, Chile, UK, the Philippines and South Africa. We consider impact of lockdown in terms of ability to socially distance, and income loss during lockdown, and tested the impact of assumptions on social protection coverage in a scenario analysis.

RESULTS

In all examined countries, socioeconomic status (SES) quintiles 1-3 were disproportionately more likely to experience income loss (70% of people) and inability to socially distance (68% of people) than higher SES quintiles. Improving social protection increased the percentage of the workforce able to socially distance from 48% (33%-60%) to 66% (44%-71%). We estimate the cost of this social protection would be equivalent to an average of 0.6% gross domestic product (0.1% Pakistan-1.1% Chile).

CONCLUSIONS

We illustrate the potential for using publicly available data to rapidly assess the equity implications of social protection and non-pharmaceutical intervention policy. Social protection is likely to mitigate inequitable health and economic impacts of lockdown. Although social protection is usually targeted to the poorest, middle quintiles will likely also need support as they are most likely to suffer income losses and are disproportionately more exposed.

Pakistan’s Community-based Lady Health Workers (LHWs): Change Agents for Child Health?

BACKGROUND: In Pakistan&rsquo;s high child mortality context, a large-scale Lady Health Worker (LHW) Program raises the need to look at whether LHWs are delivering their key mandate as agents of change for child health. This study examines the quantity and quality of LHW interactions with mothers for child health and their impact on mothers&#39; knowledge and child health practices. METHODS: 1,968 mothers of children &lt;2 years (n=1,968) were interviewed through a cross-sectional survey in two rural districts of Pakistan focusing on immunization, nutrition, and early child illness. Data on frequency of LHW&rsquo;s visits; services provided, specific services related to routine immunization (RI), nutrition and child illness, and maternal knowledge and practices were analyzed using median values for continuous variables and counts and percentages for categorical data. RESULTS: Monthly visits by LHW were reported by only 63% of LHW covered households. During LHW monthly encounters, Oral Polio drops administration was most frequently reported (77%), followed by RI (59%), breastfeeding counseling (20%), child illness management advice (18%), growth monitoring (9.5%), while none reported receiving hygiene counseling. Although LHWs were reported to be the main information source for child health; limited impact of LHW-mother interaction was seen on maternal knowledge and practices: 76% mothers reported receiving ORS packets from LHWs but only 27% knew of correct usage, only 34% washed hands before feeding children, less than a third could correctly recall early signs of pneumonia and awareness of Vaccine Preventable Diseases other than Polio ranged from 42%-9% only. CONCLUSION: Although LHWs are main information source for child health services but infrequent, poor quality household encounters indicate ineffective delivery on the key mandate of community-based child health. Policy debate instead of focusing on scaling up or downsizing the program, should prioritize quality and supervision to improve value for money of a critical community resource.

Correction to: Adipokines and the insulin resistance syndrome in familial partial lipodystrophy caused by a mutation in lamin A/C

The authors regret that Alexandra Bargiota's name was spelt incorrectly in the author list. The details given in this correction are correct.

Adipokines and the insulin resistance syndrome in familial partial lipodystrophy caused by a mutation in lamin A/C

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Familial partial lipodystrophy (FPLD) and obesity are both associated with increased risks of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Although adipokines have been implicated, few data exist in subjects with FPLD; therefore we investigated a family with FPLD due to a lamin A/C mutation in order to determine how abnormalities of the plasma adipokine profile relate to insulin resistance and the metabolic syndrome.

METHODS

Plasma levels of adiponectin, leptin, resistin, IL-1beta, IL-6 and TNF-alpha in 30 subjects (ten patients, 20 controls) were correlated with indices of metabolic syndrome.

RESULTS

Compared with controls, FPLD patients had significantly lower plasma levels of adiponectin (3.7+/-1.0 in FDLP cases vs 7.1+/-0.72 mug/ml in controls, p=0.02), leptin (1.23+/-0.4 vs 9.0+/-1.3 ng/ml, p=0.002) and IL-6 (0.59+/-0.12 vs 1.04+/-0.17 pg/ml, p=0.047) and elevated TNF-alpha (34.8+/-8.1 vs 13.7+/-2.7 pg/ml, p=0.028), whereas IL-1beta and resistin were unchanged. In both groups, adiponectin levels were inversely correlated with body fat mass (controls, r=-0.44, p=0.036; FDLP, r=-0.67, p=0.025), insulin resistance (controls, r=-0.62, p=0.003; FDLP, r=-0.70, p=0.025) and other features of the metabolic syndrome. TNF-alpha concentrations were positively related to fat mass (controls, r=0.68, p=0.001; FDLP, r=0.64, p=0.048) and insulin resistance (controls, r=0.86, p=0.001; FDLP, r=0.75, p=0.013). IL-6, IL-1beta and resistin did not demonstrate any correlations with the metabolic syndrome in either group.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Low adiponectin and leptin and high TNF-alpha were identified as the major plasma adipokine abnormalities in FPLD, consistent with the hypothesis that low adiponectin and high TNF-alpha production may be mechanistically related, and perhaps responsible for the development of insulin resistance and cardiovascular disease in FPLD.