Gilteritinib as Post-Transplant Maintenance for AML With Internal Tandem Duplication Mutation of FLT3

PURPOSE

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) improves outcomes for patients with AML harboring an internal tandem duplication mutation of FLT3 (FLT3-ITD) AML. These patients are routinely treated with a FLT3 inhibitor after HCT, but there is limited evidence to support this. Accordingly, we conducted a randomized trial of post-HCT maintenance with the FLT3 inhibitor gilteritinib (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02997202) to determine if all such patients benefit or if detection of measurable residual disease (MRD) could identify those who might benefit.

METHODS

Adults with FLT3-ITD AML in first remission underwent HCT and were randomly assigned to placebo or 120 mg once daily gilteritinib for 24 months after HCT. The primary end point was relapse-free survival (RFS). Secondary end points included overall survival (OS) and the effect of MRD pre- and post-HCT on RFS and OS.

RESULTS

Three hundred fifty-six participants were randomly assigned post-HCT to receive gilteritinib or placebo. Although RFS was higher in the gilteritinib arm, the difference was not statistically significant (hazard ratio [HR], 0.679 [95% CI, 0.459 to 1.005]; two-sided P = .0518). However, 50.5% of participants had MRD detectable pre- or post-HCT, and, in a prespecified subgroup analysis, gilteritinib was beneficial in this population (HR, 0.515 [95% CI, 0.316 to 0.838]; P = .0065). Those without detectable MRD showed no benefit (HR, 1.213 [95% CI, 0.616 to 2.387]; P = .575).

CONCLUSION

Although the overall improvement in RFS was not statistically significant, RFS was higher for participants with detectable FLT3-ITD MRD pre- or post-HCT who received gilteritinib treatment. To our knowledge, these data are among the first to support the effectiveness of MRD-based post-HCT therapy.

Comparison of Bayesian and frequentist monitoring boundaries motivated by the Multiplatform Randomized Clinical Trial

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic highlighted the need to conduct efficient randomized clinical trials with interim monitoring guidelines for efficacy and futility. Several randomized coronavirus disease 2019 trials, including the Multiplatform Randomized Clinical Trial (mpRCT), used Bayesian guidelines with the belief that they would lead to quicker efficacy or futility decisions than traditional "frequentist" guidelines, such as spending functions and conditional power. We explore this belief using an intuitive interpretation of Bayesian methods as translating prior opinion about the treatment effect into imaginary prior data. These imaginary observations are then combined with actual observations from the trial to make conclusions. Using this approach, we show that the Bayesian efficacy boundary used in mpRCT is actually quite similar to the frequentist Pocock boundary.

METHODS

The mpRCT's efficacy monitoring guideline considered stopping if, given the observed data, there was greater than 99% probability that the treatment was effective (odds ratio greater than 1). The mpRCT's futility monitoring guideline considered stopping if, given the observed data, there was greater than 95% probability that the treatment was less than 20% effective (odds ratio less than 1.2). The mpRCT used a normal prior distribution that can be thought of as supplementing the actual patients' data with imaginary patients' data. We explore the effects of varying probability thresholds and the prior-to-actual patient ratio in the mpRCT and compare the resulting Bayesian efficacy monitoring guidelines to the well-known frequentist Pocock and O'Brien-Fleming efficacy guidelines. We also contrast Bayesian futility guidelines with a more traditional 20% conditional power futility guideline.

RESULTS

A Bayesian efficacy and futility monitoring boundary using a neutral, weakly informative prior distribution and a fixed probability threshold at all interim analyses is more aggressive than the commonly used O'Brien-Fleming efficacy boundary coupled with a 20% conditional power threshold for futility. The trade-off is that more aggressive boundaries tend to stop trials earlier, but incur a loss of power. Interestingly, the Bayesian efficacy boundary with 99% probability threshold is very similar to the classic Pocock efficacy boundary.

CONCLUSIONS

In a pandemic where quickly weeding out ineffective treatments and identifying effective treatments is paramount, aggressive monitoring may be preferred to conservative approaches, such as the O'Brien-Fleming boundary. This can be accomplished with either Bayesian or frequentist methods.

Treatment for Mild Chronic Hypertension during Pregnancy

BACKGROUND

The benefits and safety of the treatment of mild chronic hypertension (blood pressure, <160/100 mm Hg) during pregnancy are uncertain. Data are needed on whether a strategy of targeting a blood pressure of less than 140/90 mm Hg reduces the incidence of adverse pregnancy outcomes without compromising fetal growth.

METHODS

In this open-label, multicenter, randomized trial, we assigned pregnant women with mild chronic hypertension and singleton fetuses at a gestational age of less than 23 weeks to receive antihypertensive medications recommended for use in pregnancy (active-treatment group) or to receive no such treatment unless severe hypertension (systolic pressure, ≥160 mm Hg; or diastolic pressure, ≥105 mm Hg) developed (control group). The primary outcome was a composite of preeclampsia with severe features, medically indicated preterm birth at less than 35 weeks' gestation, placental abruption, or fetal or neonatal death. The safety outcome was small-for-gestational-age birth weight below the 10th percentile for gestational age. Secondary outcomes included composites of serious neonatal or maternal complications, preeclampsia, and preterm birth.

RESULTS

A total of 2408 women were enrolled in the trial. The incidence of a primary-outcome event was lower in the active-treatment group than in the control group (30.2% vs. 37.0%), for an adjusted risk ratio of 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74 to 0.92; P<0.001). The percentage of small-for-gestational-age birth weights below the 10th percentile was 11.2% in the active-treatment group and 10.4% in the control group (adjusted risk ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.82 to 1.31; P = 0.76). The incidence of serious maternal complications was 2.1% and 2.8%, respectively (risk ratio, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.45 to 1.26), and the incidence of severe neonatal complications was 2.0% and 2.6% (risk ratio, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.45 to 1.30). The incidence of any preeclampsia in the two groups was 24.4% and 31.1%, respectively (risk ratio, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.69 to 0.89), and the incidence of preterm birth was 27.5% and 31.4% (risk ratio, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.77 to 0.99).

CONCLUSIONS

In pregnant women with mild chronic hypertension, a strategy of targeting a blood pressure of less than 140/90 mm Hg was associated with better pregnancy outcomes than a strategy of reserving treatment only for severe hypertension, with no increase in the risk of small-for-gestational-age birth weight. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; CHAP ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02299414.).

Evaluating treatment effects in group sequential multivariate longitudinal studies with covariate adjustment

Jeffries et al. (2018) investigated testing for a treatment difference in the setting of a randomized clinical trial with a single outcome measured longitudinally over a series of common follow-up times while adjusting for covariates. That paper examined the null hypothesis of no difference at any follow-up time versus the alternative of a difference for at least one follow-up time. We extend those results here by considering multivariate outcome measurements, where each individual outcome is examined at common follow-up times. We consider the case where there is interest in first testing for a treatment difference in a global function of the outcomes (e.g., weighted average or sum) with subsequent interest in examining the individual outcomes, should the global function show a treatment difference. Testing is conducted for each follow-up time and may be performed in the setting of a group sequential trial. Testing procedures are developed to determine follow-up times for which a global treatment difference exists and which individual combinations of outcome and follow-up time show evidence of a difference while controlling for multiplicity in outcomes, follow-up, and interim analyses. These approaches are examined in a study evaluating the effects of tissue plasminogen activator on longitudinally obtained stroke severity measurements.

Combined haploidentical and cord blood transplantation for refractory severe aplastic anaemia and hypoplastic myelodysplastic syndrome

Umbilical cord blood (UCB) transplantation is a potentially curative treatment for patients with refractory severe aplastic anaemia (SAA), but has historically been associated with delayed engraftment and high graft failure and mortality rates. We conducted a prospective phase 2 trial to assess outcome of an allogeneic transplant regimen that co-infused a single UCB unit with CD34⁺ -selected cells from a haploidentical relative. Among 29 SAA patients [including 10 evolved to myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS)] who underwent the haplo cord transplantation (median age 20 years), 97% had neutrophil recovery (median 10 days), and 93% had platelet recovery (median 32 days). Early myeloid engraftment was from the haplo donor and was gradually replaced by durable engraftment from UCB in most patients. The cumulative incidences of grade II-IV acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) were 21% and 41%, respectively. With a median follow-up of 7·5 years, overall survival was 83% and GVHD/relapse-free survival was 69%. Patient- and transplant-related factors had no impact on engraftment and survival although transplants with haplo-versus-cord killer-cell immunoglobulin-like receptor (KIR) ligand incompatibility had delayed cord engraftment. Our study shows haplo cord transplantation is associated with excellent engraftment and long-term outcome, providing an alternative option for patients with refractory SAA and hypoplastic MDS who lack human leucocyte antigen (HLA)-matched donors.

Myeloablative versus Reduced-Intensity Conditioning for Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation in Acute Myelogenous Leukemia and Myelodysplastic Syndromes-Long-Term Follow-Up of the BMT CTN 0901 Clinical Trial

Several prospective randomized trials comparing conditioning intensity before allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) have been performed, with conflicting results. Although reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC) leads to lower treatment-related mortality (TRM), this is offset by higher rates of relapse. Long-term follow-up of randomized comparative trials are limited. Here we present long-term follow-up of a randomized comparison of myeloablative conditioning (MAC) compared with RIC before HCT for acute myelogenous leukemia (AML) or myelodysplasia (MDS). Long-term comparative analyses of overall survival, relapse, and relapse-free survival were performed. Patients age 18 to 65 years with <5% marrow myeloblasts were randomized to receive MAC (n = 135) or RIC (n = 137), followed by HCT from an HLA-matched donor. The primary endpoint of the trial was an 18-month pointwise comparison of overall survival. The analyses were performed using a proportional hazards model. The median follow-up of the entire cohort was 51 months. At 4 years, the transplant-related mortality (TRM) was 25.1% for MAC, compared with 9.9% for RIC (P < .001). Patients who received RIC had a significantly higher risk of relapse compared to those who received MAC (hazard ratio [HR], 4.06; 95% CI, 2.59 to 6.35; P < 0.001). Among the patients who relapsed after HCT, postrelapse survival was similar at 3 years (24% for MAC and 26% for RIC). Overall survival was superior for patients who received MAC compared to those who received RIC (HR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.07 to 2.2; P = .03). Our data show that patients who received MAC were at higher risk of late TRM compared with those who received RIC; however, because of the exceedingly high rates of relapse in the RIC arm, overall survival remained significantly better for patients who received MAC. Among patients with MDS or AML eligible for either MAC or RIC regimens, long-term follow up demonstrates a survival advantage for patients who received MAC.

Three prophylaxis regimens (tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, and cyclophosphamide; tacrolimus, methotrexate, and bortezomib; or tacrolimus, methotrexate, and maraviroc) versus tacrolimus and methotrexate for prevention of graft-versus-host disease with haemopoietic cell transplantation with reduced-intensity conditioning: a randomised phase 2 trial with a non-randomised contemporaneous control group (BMT CTN 1203)

BACKGROUND

Prevention of graft-versus-host disease (GvHD) without malignant relapse is the overall goal of allogeneic haemopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). We aimed to evaluate regimens using either maraviroc, bortezomib, or post-transplantation cyclophosphamide for GvHD prophylaxis compared with controls receiving the combination of tacrolimus and methotrexate using a novel composite primary endpoint to identify the most promising intervention to be further tested in a phase 3 trial.

METHODS

In this prospective multicentre phase 2 trial, adult patients aged 18-75 years who received reduced-intensity conditioning HCT were randomly assigned (1:1:1) by random block sizes to tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, and post-transplantation cyclophosphamide (cyclophosphamide 50 mg/kg on days 3 and 4, followed by tacrolimus starting on day 5 and mycophenolate mofetil starting on day 5 at 15 mg/kg three times daily not to exceed 1 g from day 5 to day 35); tacrolimus, methotrexate, and bortezomib (bortezomib 1·3 mg/m2 intravenously on days 1, 4, and 7 after HCT); or tacrolimus, methotrexate, and maraviroc (maraviroc 300 mg orally twice daily from day -3 to day 30 after HCT). Methotrexate was administered as a 15 mg/m2 intravenous bolus on day 1 and 10 mg/m2 intravenous bolus on days 3, 6, and 11 after HCT; tacrolimus was given intravenously at a dose of 0·05 mg/kg twice daily (or oral equivalent) starting on day -3 (except the post-transplantation cyclophosphamide, as indicated), with a target level of 5-15 ng/mL. Tacrolimus was continued at least until day 90 and was tapered off by day 180. Each study group was compared separately to a contemporary non-randomised prospective cohort of patients (control group) who fulfilled the same eligibility criteria as the trial, but who were treated with tacrolimus and methotrexate at centres not participating in the trial. The primary endpoint (GvHD-free, relapse-free survival [GRFS]) was defined as the time from HCT to onset of grade 3-4 acute GvHD, chronic GvHD requiring systemic immunosuppression, disease relapse, or death. The study was analysed by modified intention to treat. The study is closed to accrual and this is the planned analysis. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02208037.

FINDINGS

Between Nov 17, 2014, and May 18, 2016, 273 patients from 31 US centres were randomly assigned to the three study arms: 89 to tacrolimus, methotrexate, and bortezomib; 92 to tacrolimus, methotrexate, and maraviroc; 92 to tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, and post-transplantation cyclophosphamide; and six were excluded. Between Aug 1, 2014, and Sept 14, 2016, 224 controls received tacrolimus and methotrexate. Controls were generally well matched except for more frequent comorbidities than the intervention groups and a different distribution of types of conditioning regimens used. Compared with controls, the hazard ratio for GRFS was 0·72 (90% CI 0·54-0·94; p=0·044) for tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, and post-transplantation cyclophosphamide, 0·98 (0·76-1·27; p=0·92) for tacrolimus, methotrexate, and bortezomib, and 1·10 (0·86-1·41; p=0·49) for tacrolimus, methotrexate, and maraviroc. 238 patients experienced grade 3 or 4 toxicities: 12 (13%) had grade 3 and 67 (73%) grade 4 events with tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, and post-transplantation cyclophosphamide; ten (11%) had grade 3 and 68 (76%) had grade 4 events with tacrolimus, methotrexate, and bortezomib; and 18 (20%) had grade 3 and 63 (68%) had grade 4 events with tacrolimus, methotrexate, and maraviroc. The most common toxicities were haematological (77 [84%] for tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, and post-transplantation cyclophosphamide; 73 [82%] for tacrolimus, methotrexate, and bortezomib; and 78 [85%] for tacrolimus, methotrexate, and maraviroc) and cardiac (43 [47%], 44 [49%], and 43 [47%], respectively).

INTERPRETATION

Tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, and post-transplantation cyclophosphamide was the most promising intervention, yielding the best GRFS; this regimen is thus being prospectively compared with tacrolimus and methotrexate in a phase 3 randomised trial.

FUNDING

US National Health, Lung, and Blood Institute; National Cancer Institute; National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease; and Millennium Pharmaceuticals.

Detecting treatment differences in group sequential longitudinal studies with covariate adjustment

In longitudinal studies comparing two treatments over a series of common follow-up measurements, there may be interest in determining if there is a treatment difference at any follow-up period when there may be a non-monotone treatment effect over time. To evaluate this question, Jeffries and Geller (2015) examined a number of clinical trial designs that allowed adaptive choice of the follow-up time exhibiting the greatest evidence of treatment difference in a group sequential testing setting with Gaussian data. The methods are applicable when a few measurements were taken at prespecified follow-up periods. Here, we test the intersection null hypothesis of no difference at any follow-up time versus the alternative that there is a difference for at least one follow-up time. Results of Jeffries and Geller (2015) are extended by considering a broader range of modeled data and the inclusion of covariates using generalized estimating equations. Testing procedures are developed to determine a set of follow-up times that exhibit a treatment difference that accounts for multiplicity in follow-up times and interim analyses.

Myeloablative Versus Reduced-Intensity Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation for Acute Myeloid Leukemia and Myelodysplastic Syndromes

Purpose The optimal regimen intensity before allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is unknown. We hypothesized that lower treatment-related mortality (TRM) with reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC) would result in improved overall survival (OS) compared with myeloablative conditioning (MAC). To test this hypothesis, we performed a phase III randomized trial comparing MAC with RIC in patients with acute myeloid leukemia or myelodysplastic syndromes. Patients and Methods Patients age 18 to 65 years with HCT comorbidity index ≤ 4 and < 5% marrow myeloblasts pre-HCT were randomly assigned to receive MAC (n = 135) or RIC (n = 137) followed by HCT from HLA-matched related or unrelated donors. The primary end point was OS 18 months post-random assignment based on an intent-to-treat analysis. Secondary end points included relapse-free survival (RFS) and TRM. Results Planned enrollment was 356 patients; accrual ceased at 272 because of high relapse incidence with RIC versus MAC (48.3%; 95% CI, 39.6% to 56.4% and 13.5%; 95% CI, 8.3% to 19.8%, respectively; P < .001). At 18 months, OS for patients in the RIC arm was 67.7% (95% CI, 59.1% to 74.9%) versus 77.5% (95% CI, 69.4% to 83.7%) for those in the MAC arm (difference, 9.8%; 95% CI, -0.8% to 20.3%; P = .07). TRM with RIC was 4.4% (95% CI, 1.8% to 8.9%) versus 15.8% (95% CI, 10.2% to 22.5%) with MAC ( P = .002). RFS with RIC was 47.3% (95% CI, 38.7% to 55.4%) versus 67.8% (95% CI, 59.1% to 75%) with MAC ( P < .01). Conclusion OS was higher with MAC, but this was not statistically significant. RIC resulted in lower TRM but higher relapse rates compared with MAC, with a statistically significant advantage in RFS with MAC. These data support the use of MAC as the standard of care for fit patients with acute myeloid leukemia or myelodysplastic syndromes.

Effect of high-dose plerixafor on CD34+ cell mobilization in healthy stem cell donors: results of a randomized crossover trial

Hematopoietic stem cells can be mobilized from healthy donors using single-agent plerixafor without granulocyte colony-stimulating factor and, following allogeneic transplantation, can result in sustained donor-derived hematopoiesis. However, when a single dose of plerixafor is administered at a conventional 240 μg/kg dose, approximately one-third of donors will fail to mobilize the minimally acceptable dose of CD34⁺ cells needed for allogeneic transplantation. We conducted an open-label, randomized trial to assess the safety and activity of high-dose (480 μg/kg) plerixafor in CD34⁺ cell mobilization in healthy donors. Subjects were randomly assigned to receive either a high dose or a conventional dose (240 μg/kg) of plerixafor, given as a single subcutaneous injection, in a two-sequence, two-period, crossover design. Each treatment period was separated by a 2-week minimum washout period. The primary endpoint was the peak CD34⁺ count in the blood, with secondary endpoints of CD34⁺ cell area under the curve (AUC), CD34⁺ count at 24 hours, and time to peak CD34⁺ following the administration of plerixafor. We randomized 23 subjects to the two treatment sequences and 20 subjects received both doses of plerixafor. Peak CD34⁺ count in the blood was significantly increased (mean 32.2 versus 27.8 cells/μL, P=0.0009) and CD34⁺ cell AUC over 24 hours was significantly increased (mean 553 versus 446 h cells/μL, P<0.0001) following the administration of the 480 μg/kg dose of plerixafor compared with the 240 μg/kg dose. Remarkably, of seven subjects who mobilized poorly (peak CD34⁺ ≤20 cells/μL) after the 240 μg/kg dose of plerixafor, six achieved higher peak CD34⁺ cell numbers and all achieved higher CD34⁺ AUC over 24 hours after the 480 μg/kg dose. No grade 3 or worse drug-related adverse events were observed. This study establishes that high-dose plerixafor can be safely administered in healthy donors and mobilizes greater numbers of CD34⁺ cells than conventional-dose plerixafor, which may improve CD34⁺ graft yields and reduce the number of apheresis procedures needed to collect sufficient stem cells for allogeneic transplantation. (ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier: NCT00322127)

Two-Year Outcomes of Surgical Treatment of Severe Ischemic Mitral Regurgitation

BACKGROUND

In a randomized trial comparing mitral-valve repair with mitral-valve replacement in patients with severe ischemic mitral regurgitation, we found no significant difference in the left ventricular end-systolic volume index (LVESVI), survival, or adverse events at 1 year after surgery. However, patients in the repair group had significantly more recurrences of moderate or severe mitral regurgitation. We now report the 2-year outcomes of this trial.

METHODS

We randomly assigned 251 patients to mitral-valve repair or replacement. Patients were followed for 2 years, and clinical and echocardiographic outcomes were assessed.

RESULTS

Among surviving patients, the mean (±SD) 2-year LVESVI was 52.6±27.7 ml per square meter of body-surface area with mitral-valve repair and 60.6±39.0 ml per square meter with mitral-valve replacement (mean changes from baseline, -9.0 ml per square meter and -6.5 ml per square meter, respectively). Two-year mortality was 19.0% in the repair group and 23.2% in the replacement group (hazard ratio in the repair group, 0.79; 95% confidence interval, 0.46 to 1.35; P=0.39). The rank-based assessment of LVESVI at 2 years (incorporating deaths) showed no significant between-group difference (z score=-1.32, P=0.19). The rate of recurrence of moderate or severe mitral regurgitation over 2 years was higher in the repair group than in the replacement group (58.8% vs. 3.8%, P<0.001). There were no significant between-group differences in rates of serious adverse events and overall readmissions, but patients in the repair group had more serious adverse events related to heart failure (P=0.05) and cardiovascular readmissions (P=0.01). On the Minnesota Living with Heart Failure questionnaire, there was a trend toward greater improvement in the replacement group (P=0.07).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients undergoing mitral-valve repair or replacement for severe ischemic mitral regurgitation, we observed no significant between-group difference in left ventricular reverse remodeling or survival at 2 years. Mitral regurgitation recurred more frequently in the repair group, resulting in more heart-failure-related adverse events and cardiovascular admissions. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and Canadian Institutes of Health Research; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00807040.).

Smart Technology in Lung Disease Clinical Trials

This article describes the use of smart technology by investigators and patients to facilitate lung disease clinical trials and make them less costly and more efficient. By "smart technology" we include various electronic media, such as computer databases, the Internet, and mobile devices. We first describe the use of electronic health records for identifying potential subjects and then discuss electronic informed consent. We give several examples of using the Internet and mobile technology in clinical trials. Interventions have been delivered via the World Wide Web or via mobile devices, and both have been used to collect outcome data. We discuss examples of new electronic devices that recently have been introduced to collect health data. While use of smart technology in clinical trials is an exciting development, comparison with similar interventions applied in a conventional manner is still in its infancy. We discuss advantages and disadvantages of using this omnipresent, powerful tool in clinical trials, as well as directions for future research.

Patient-reported physical functioning predicts the success of hematopoietic cell transplantation (BMT CTN 0902)

BACKGROUND

In hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT), current risk adjustment strategies are based on clinical and disease-related variables. Although patient-reported outcomes (PROs) predict mortality in multiple cancers, they have been less well studied within HCT. Improvements in risk adjustment strategies in HCT would inform patient selection, patient counseling, and quality reporting. The objective of the current study was to determine whether pre-HCT PROs, in particular physical health, predict survival among patients undergoing autologous or allogeneic transplantation.

METHODS

In this secondary analysis, the authors studied pre-HCT PROs that were reported by 336 allogeneic and 310 autologous HCT recipients enrolled in the Blood and Marrow Transplant Clinical Trials Network (BMT CTN) 0902 protocol, a study with broad representation of patients who underwent transplantation in the United States.

RESULTS

Among allogeneic HCT recipients, the pre-HCT Medical Outcomes Study Short Form-36 Health Survey (SF-36) physical component summary (PCS) scale independently predicted overall mortality (hazards ratio, 1.40 per 10-point decrease; P<.001) and performed at least as well as currently used, non-PRO risk indices. Survival probability estimates at 1 year for the first, second, third, and fourth quartiles of the baseline PCS were 50%, 65%, 75%, and 83%, respectively. Early post-HCT decreases in PCS were associated with higher overall and treatment-related mortality. When adjusted for patient variables included in the US Stem Cell Therapeutic Outcomes Database model for transplant center-specific reporting, the SF-36 PCS retained independent prognostic value.

CONCLUSIONS

PROs have the potential to improve prognostication in HCT. The authors recommend the routine collection of PROs before HCT, and consideration of the incorporation of PROs into risk adjustment for quality reporting.

Negative Epistasis between Sickle and Foetal Haemoglobin Suggests a Reduction in Protection against Malaria

BACKGROUND

Haemoglobin variants, Sickle (HbS) and foetal (HbF) have been associated with malaria protection. This study explores epistatic interactions between HbS and HbF on malaria infection.

METHODS

The study was conducted between March 2004 and December 2013 within the sickle cell disease (SCD) programme at Muhimbili National Hospital, Tanzania. SCD status was categorized into HbAA, HbAS and HbSS using hemoglobin electrophoresis and High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC). HbF levels were determined by HPLC. Malaria was diagnosed using rapid diagnostic test and/or blood film. Logistic regression and generalized estimating equations models were used to evaluate associations between SCD status, HbF and malaria.

FINDINGS

2,049 individuals with age range 0-70 years, HbAA 311(15.2%), HbAS 241(11.8%) and HbSS 1,497(73.1%) were analysed. At enrolment, malaria prevalence was significantly higher in HbAA 13.2% compared to HbAS 1.24% and HbSS 1.34% (p<0.001). Mean HbF was lower in those with malaria compared to those without malaria in HbAA (0.43% vs 0.82%) but was the reverse in HbSS (8.10% vs 5.59%). An increase in HbF was associated with a decrease in risk of malaria OR=0.50 (95%CI: 0.28, 0.90; p=0.021) in HbAA, whereas for HbSS the risk of malaria increased OR=2.94 (1.44, 5.98; p=0.003). A similar pattern was seen during multiple visits; HbAA OR=0.52 (0.34, 0.80; p=0.003) vs HbSS OR=2.01 (1.27, 3.23; p=0.003).

CONCLUSION

Higher prevalence of malaria in HbAA compared to HbAS and HbSS confirmed the protective effect of HbS. Lower prevalence of malaria in HbAA with high HbF supports a protective effect of HbF. However, in HbSS, the higher prevalence of malaria with high levels of HbF suggests loss of malaria protection. This is the first epidemiological study to suggest a negative epistasis between HbF and HbS on malaria.

Surgical ablation of atrial fibrillation during mitral-valve surgery

BACKGROUND

Among patients undergoing mitral-valve surgery, 30 to 50% present with atrial fibrillation, which is associated with reduced survival and increased risk of stroke. Surgical ablation of atrial fibrillation has been widely adopted, but evidence regarding its safety and effectiveness is limited.

METHODS

We randomly assigned 260 patients with persistent or long-standing persistent atrial fibrillation who required mitral-valve surgery to undergo either surgical ablation (ablation group) or no ablation (control group) during the mitral-valve operation. Patients in the ablation group underwent further randomization to pulmonary-vein isolation or a biatrial maze procedure. All patients underwent closure of the left atrial appendage. The primary end point was freedom from atrial fibrillation at both 6 months and 12 months (as assessed by means of 3-day Holter monitoring).

RESULTS

More patients in the ablation group than in the control group were free from atrial fibrillation at both 6 and 12 months (63.2% vs. 29.4%, P<0.001). There was no significant difference in the rate of freedom from atrial fibrillation between patients who underwent pulmonary-vein isolation and those who underwent the biatrial maze procedure (61.0% and 66.0%, respectively; P=0.60). One-year mortality was 6.8% in the ablation group and 8.7% in the control group (hazard ratio with ablation, 0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.32 to 1.84; P=0.55). Ablation was associated with more implantations of a permanent pacemaker than was no ablation (21.5 vs. 8.1 per 100 patient-years, P=0.01). There were no significant between-group differences in major cardiac or cerebrovascular adverse events, overall serious adverse events, or hospital readmissions.

CONCLUSIONS

The addition of atrial fibrillation ablation to mitral-valve surgery significantly increased the rate of freedom from atrial fibrillation at 1 year among patients with persistent or long-standing persistent atrial fibrillation, but the risk of implantation of a permanent pacemaker was also increased. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00903370.).

Longitudinal clinical trials with adaptive choice of follow-up time

In longitudinal studies comparing two treatments with a maximum follow-up time there may be interest in examining treatment effects for intermediate follow-up times. One motivation may be to identify the time period with greatest treatment difference when there is a non-monotone treatment effect over time; another motivation may be to make the trial more efficient in terms of time to reach a decision on whether a new treatment is efficacious or not. Here, we test the composite null hypothesis of no difference at any follow-up time versus the alternative that there is a difference at at least one follow-up time. The methods are applicable when a few measurements are taken over time, such as in early longitudinal trials or in ancillary studies. Suppose the test statistic Z(t(k)) will be used to test the hypothesis of no treatment effect at a fixed follow-up time t(k). In this context a common approach is to perform a pilot study on N1 subjects, and evaluate the treatment effect at the fixed time points t1,…,t(K) and choose t* as the value of t(k) for which Z(t(k)) is maximized. Having chosen t* a second trial can be designed. In a setting with group sequential testing we consider several adaptive alternatives to this approach that treat the pilot and second trial as a seamless, combined entity and evaluate Type I error and power characteristics. The adaptive designs we consider typically have improved power over the common, separate trial approach.

Management practices and major infections after cardiac surgery

BACKGROUND

Infections are the most common noncardiac complication after cardiac surgery, but their incidence across a broad range of operations, as well as the management factors that shape infection risk, remain unknown.

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to prospectively examine the frequency of post-operative infections and associated mortality, and modifiable management practices predictive of infections within 65 days from cardiac surgery.

METHODS

This study enrolled 5,158 patients and analyzed independently adjudicated infections using a competing risk model (with death as the competing event).

RESULTS

Nearly 5% of patients experienced major infections. Baseline characteristics associated with increased infection risk included chronic lung disease (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.66; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.21 to 2.26), heart failure (HR: 1.47; 95% CI: 1.11 to 1.95), and longer surgery (HR: 1.31; 95% CI: 1.21 to 1.41). Practices associated with reduced infection risk included prophylaxis with second-generation cephalosporins (HR: 0.70; 95% CI: 0.52 to 0.94), whereas post-operative antibiotic duration >48 h (HR: 1.92; 95% CI: 1.28 to 2.88), stress hyperglycemia (HR: 1.32; 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.73); intubation time of 24 to 48 h (HR: 1.49; 95% CI: 1.04 to 2.14); and ventilation >48 h (HR: 2.45; 95% CI: 1.66 to 3.63) were associated with increased risk. HRs for infection were similar with either <24 h or <48 h of antibiotic prophylaxis. There was a significant but differential effect of transfusion by surgery type (excluding left ventricular assist device procedures/transplant) (HR: 1.13; 95% CI: 1.07 to 1.20). Major infections substantially increased mortality (HR: 10.02; 95% CI: 6.12 to 16.39).

CONCLUSIONS

Major infections dramatically affect survival and readmissions. Second-generation cephalosporins were strongly associated with reduced major infection risk, but optimal duration of antibiotic prophylaxis requires further study. Given practice variations, considerable opportunities exist for improving outcomes and preventing readmissions. (Management Practices and Risk of Infection Following Cardiac Surgery; NCT01089712).

Charting a roadmap for heart failure biomarker studies

Heart failure is a syndrome with a pathophysiological basis that can be traced to dysfunction in several interconnected molecular pathways. Identification of biomarkers of heart failure that allow measurement of the disease on a molecular level has resulted in enthusiasm for their use in prognostication and selection of appropriate therapies. However, despite considerable amounts of information available on numerous biomarkers, inconsistent research methodologies and lack of clinical correlations have made bench-to-bedside translations rare and left the literature with countless publications of varied quality. There is a need for a systematic and collaborative approach aimed at definitively studying the clinical benefits of novel biomarkers. In this review, on the basis of input from academia, industry, and governmental agencies, we propose a systematized approach based on adherence to specific quality measures for studies looking to augment current prediction model or use biomarkers to tailor therapeutics. We suggest that study quality, rather than results, should determine publication and propose a system for grading biomarker studies. We outline the need for collaboration between clinical investigators and statisticians to introduce more advanced statistical methodologies into the field of biomarkers that would allow for data from a large number of variables to be distilled into clinically actionable information. Lastly, we propose the creation of a heart failure biomarker consortium that would allow for a comprehensive list of biomarkers to be concomitantly analyzed in a pooled sample of randomized clinical trials and hypotheses to be generated for testing in biomarker-guided trials. Such a consortium could collaborate in sharing samples to identify biomarkers, undertake meta-analyses on completed trials, and spearhead clinical trials to test the clinical utility of new biomarkers.

Exercise and stress management training prior to hematopoietic cell transplantation: Blood and Marrow Transplant Clinical Trials Network (BMT CTN) 0902

Studies show that engaging patients in exercise and/or stress management techniques during hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) improves quality of life. The Blood and Marrow Transplant Clinical Trials Network tested the efficacy of training patients to engage in self-directed exercise and stress management during HCT. The study randomized 711 patients at 21 centers to receive 1 of 4 training interventions before HCT: a self-directed exercise program, a self-administered stress management program, both, or neither. Participants completed self-reported assessments at enrollment and up to 180 days after HCT. Randomization was stratified by center and transplant type. There were no differences in the primary endpoints of the Physical Component Summary and Mental Component Summary scales of the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 36 at day +100 among the groups, based on an intention-to-treat analysis. There also were no differences in overall survival, days of hospitalization through day +100 post-HCT, or in other patient-reported outcomes, including treatment-related distress, sleep quality, pain, and nausea. Patients randomized to training in stress management reported more use of those techniques, but patients randomized to training in exercise did not report more physical activity. Although other studies have reported efficacy of more intensive interventions, brief training in an easy-to-disseminate format for either self-directed exercise or stress management was not effective in our trial.

Current challenges for clinical trials of cardiovascular medical devices

Several features of cardiovascular devices raise considerations for clinical trial conduct. Prospective, randomized, controlled trials remain the highest quality evidence for safety and effectiveness assessments, but, for instance, blinding may be challenging. In order to avoid bias and not confound data interpretation, the use of objective endpoints and blinding patients, study staff, core labs, and clinical endpoint committees to treatment assignment are helpful approaches. Anticipation of potential bias should be considered and planned for prospectively in a cardiovascular device trial. Prospective, single-arm studies (often referred to as registry studies) can provide additional data in some cases. They are subject to selection bias even when carefully designed; thus, they are generally not acceptable as the sole basis for pre-market approval of high risk cardiovascular devices. However, they complement the evidence base and fill the gaps unanswered by randomized trials. Registry studies present device safety and effectiveness in day-to-day clinical practice settings and detect rare adverse events in the post-market period. No single research design will be appropriate for every cardiovascular device or target patient population. The type of trial, appropriate control group, and optimal length of follow-up will depend on the specific device, its potential clinical benefits, the target patient population and the existence (or lack) of effective therapies, and its anticipated risks. Continued efforts on the part of investigators, the device industry, and government regulators are needed to reach the optimal approach for evaluating the safety and performance of innovative devices for the treatment of cardiovascular disease.

Mitral-valve repair versus replacement for severe ischemic mitral regurgitation

BACKGROUND

Ischemic mitral regurgitation is associated with a substantial risk of death. Practice guidelines recommend surgery for patients with a severe form of this condition but acknowledge that the supporting evidence for repair or replacement is limited.

METHODS

We randomly assigned 251 patients with severe ischemic mitral regurgitation to undergo either mitral-valve repair or chordal-sparing replacement in order to evaluate efficacy and safety. The primary end point was the left ventricular end-systolic volume index (LVESVI) at 12 months, as assessed with the use of a Wilcoxon rank-sum test in which deaths were categorized below the lowest LVESVI rank.

RESULTS

At 12 months, the mean LVESVI among surviving patients was 54.6±25.0 ml per square meter of body-surface area in the repair group and 60.7±31.5 ml per square meter in the replacement group (mean change from baseline, -6.6 and -6.8 ml per square meter, respectively). The rate of death was 14.3% in the repair group and 17.6% in the replacement group (hazard ratio with repair, 0.79; 95% confidence interval, 0.42 to 1.47; P=0.45 by the log-rank test). There was no significant between-group difference in LVESVI after adjustment for death (z score, 1.33; P=0.18). The rate of moderate or severe recurrence of mitral regurgitation at 12 months was higher in the repair group than in the replacement group (32.6% vs. 2.3%, P<0.001). There were no significant between-group differences in the rate of a composite of major adverse cardiac or cerebrovascular events, in functional status, or in quality of life at 12 months.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed no significant difference in left ventricular reverse remodeling or survival at 12 months between patients who underwent mitral-valve repair and those who underwent mitral-valve replacement. Replacement provided a more durable correction of mitral regurgitation, but there was no significant between-group difference in clinical outcomes. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and the Canadian Institutes of Health; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00807040.).

A pharmacogenetic versus a clinical algorithm for warfarin dosing

BACKGROUND

The clinical utility of genotype-guided (pharmacogenetically based) dosing of warfarin has been tested only in small clinical trials or observational studies, with equivocal results.

METHODS

We randomly assigned 1015 patients to receive doses of warfarin during the first 5 days of therapy that were determined according to a dosing algorithm that included both clinical variables and genotype data or to one that included clinical variables only. All patients and clinicians were unaware of the dose of warfarin during the first 4 weeks of therapy. The primary outcome was the percentage of time that the international normalized ratio (INR) was in the therapeutic range from day 4 or 5 through day 28 of therapy.

RESULTS

At 4 weeks, the mean percentage of time in the therapeutic range was 45.2% in the genotype-guided group and 45.4% in the clinically guided group (adjusted mean difference, [genotype-guided group minus clinically guided group], -0.2; 95% confidence interval, -3.4 to 3.1; P=0.91). There also was no significant between-group difference among patients with a predicted dose difference between the two algorithms of 1 mg per day or more. There was, however, a significant interaction between dosing strategy and race (P=0.003). Among black patients, the mean percentage of time in the therapeutic range was less in the genotype-guided group than in the clinically guided group. The rates of the combined outcome of any INR of 4 or more, major bleeding, or thromboembolism did not differ significantly according to dosing strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

Genotype-guided dosing of warfarin did not improve anticoagulation control during the first 4 weeks of therapy. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and others; COAG ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00839657.).

Rationale and design of the Clarification of Optimal Anticoagulation through Genetics trial

BACKGROUND

Current dosing practices for warfarin are empiric and result in the need for frequent dose changes as the international normalized ratio gets too high or too low. As a result, patients are put at increased risk for thromboembolism, bleeding, and premature discontinuation of anticoagulation therapy. Prior research has identified clinical and genetic factors that can alter warfarin dose requirements, but few randomized clinical trials have examined the utility of using clinical and genetic information to improve anticoagulation control or clinical outcomes among a large, diverse group of patients initiating warfarin.

METHODS

The COAG trial is a multicenter, double-blind, randomized trial comparing 2 approaches to guiding warfarin therapy initiation: initiation of warfarin therapy based on algorithms using clinical information plus an individual's genotype using genes known to influence warfarin response ("genotype-guided dosing") versus only clinical information ("clinical-guided dosing") (www.clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00839657).

RESULTS

The COAG trial design is described. The study hypothesis is that, among 1,022 enrolled patients, genotype-guided dosing relative to clinical-guided dosing during the initial dosing period will increase the percentage of time that patients spend in the therapeutic international normalized ratio range in the first 4 weeks of therapy.

CONCLUSION

The COAG will determine if genetic information provides added benefit above and beyond clinical information alone.

NHLBI clinical trials workshop: an executive summary

On September 13-14, 2010, the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (NHLBI) organized a workshop: 'Clinical Trials: Past, Present and Future'. The workshop covered many areas in clinical trials, including the history of clinical trials at NHLBI, Bayesian clinical trials, surrogate endpoints, reporting clinical trials, handling missing data, flexible designs and adaptive trials, personalized medicine and genomic clinical trials, and comparative effectiveness research. In this report, we summarize the main discussions and conclusions based on the presentations of the invited speakers at the workshop.

Diabetes clinical trials: helped or hindered by the current shift in regulatory requirements?

Glycaemic control is an inadequate surrogate marker of cardiovascular event reduction in patients with type 2 diabetes. Clinical trials to date have been unsuccessful in identifying a therapeutic approach that addresses the underlying problem in diabetes (glycaemic control) and reduces cardiovascular risk. The potential for some agents to increase the risk of cardiovascular events has led to substantial changes in regulatory requirements for new anti-diabetic therapies. These requirements, while key to ensuring the cardiovascular safety of new agents, fail to emphasize the need to show clinical benefits, such as less visual impairment, less need for dialysis, or fewer cardiovascular events and deaths. Changes in test results such as glycaemic control, serum creatinine, micro-albuminuria, or retinopathy are inadequate surrogates. Regulators should consider the potential advantages of offering extended patent protection in order to encourage companies to conduct long-term trials in diabetes and many other chronic medical conditions. Cooperative efforts among physicians, clinical trialists, regulators, and sponsors are needed to address unresolved issues including re-defining therapeutic targets that are meaningful to patients with diabetes, determining the appropriate length of follow-up for future trials, and considering the ethical and operational challenges of non-inferiority designs.

Designing comparative effectiveness trials of surgical ablation for atrial fibrillation: experience of the Cardiothoracic Surgical Trials Network

OBJECTIVE

Since the introduction of the cut-and-sew Cox maze procedure for atrial fibrillation, there has been substantial innovation in techniques for ablation. Use of alternative energy sources for ablation simplified the procedure and has resulted in dramatic increase in the number of patients with atrial fibrillation treated by surgical ablation. Despite its increasingly widespread adoption, there is lack of rigorous clinical evidence to establish this procedure as an effective clinical therapy.

METHODS

This article describes a comparative effectiveness randomized trial, supported by the Cardiothoracic Surgical Clinical Trials Network, of surgical ablation with left atrial appendage closure versus left atrial appendage closure alone in patients with persistent and long-standing persistent atrial fibrillation undergoing mitral valve surgery. Nested within this trial is a further randomized comparison of 2 different lesions sets: pulmonary vein isolation and the full maze lesion set.

RESULTS

This article addresses trial design challenges, including how best to characterize the target population, operationalize freedom from atrial fibrillation as a primary end point, account for the impact of antiarrhythmic drugs, and measure and analyze secondary end points, such as postoperative atrial fibrillation load.

CONCLUSIONS

This article concludes by discussing how insights that emerge from this trial may affect surgical practice and guide future research in this area.

Simple strategies for haplotype analysis of the X chromosome with application to age-related macular degeneration

For haplotype analysis of the X chromosome, haplotype-sharing (HS) statistics with sliding windows are defined for males and females separately, which are then combined to a single HS test for the X chromosome. When independent replication samples are not available, the training-testing sets approach is used to validate this procedure and a permutation method is used to obtain its P-value. We applied this method to the X chromosome (with 1804 SNPs) for age-related macular degeneration (AMD). We found a window of five SNPs over a 272 kb region associated with AMD after Bonferroni correction. An examination of the odds ratio and the population attributable risks revealed a disease-preventive haplotype, ATGAC, on these five SNPs. For elderly females without this haplotype, the likelihood of AMD is increased by a factor of 4.75 with a 95% confidence interval (1.43, 15.82). The frequency of ATGAC in HapMap CEU is 0.276. These five SNPs are covered by the gene DIAPH2, which is known to cause premature ovarian failure (POF) in females. Our results indicated that DIAPH2 may be a polygenic pleiotropy for POF and AMD.

Time course analysis of gene expression identifies multiple genes with differential expression in patients with in-stent restenosis

BACKGROUND

The vascular disease in-stent restenosis (ISR) is characterized by formation of neointima and adverse inward remodeling of the artery after injury by coronary stent implantation. We hypothesized that the analysis of gene expression in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) would demonstrate differences in transcript expression between individuals who develop ISR and those who do not.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We determined and investigated PBMC gene expression of 358 patients undergoing an index procedure to treat in de novo coronary artery lesions with bare metallic stents, using a novel time-varying intercept model to optimally assess the time course of gene expression across a time course of blood samples. Validation analyses were conducted in an independent sample of 97 patients with similar time-course blood sampling and gene expression data. We identified 47 probesets with differential expression, of which 36 were validated upon independent replication testing. The genes identified have varied functions, including some related to cellular growth and metabolism, such as the NAB2 and LAMP genes.

CONCLUSIONS

In a study of patients undergoing bare metallic stent implantation, we have identified and replicated differential gene expression in peripheral blood mononuclear cells, studied across a time series of blood samples. The genes identified suggest alterations in cellular growth and metabolism pathways, and these results provide the basis for further specific functional hypothesis generation and testing of the mechanisms of ISR.

Statistical design of personalized medicine interventions: the Clarification of Optimal Anticoagulation through Genetics (COAG) trial

Background

There is currently much interest in pharmacogenetics: determining variation in genes that regulate drug effects, with a particular emphasis on improving drug safety and efficacy. The ability to determine such variation motivates the application of personalized drug therapies that utilize a patient's genetic makeup to determine a safe and effective drug at the correct dose. To ascertain whether a genotype-guided drug therapy improves patient care, a personalized medicine intervention may be evaluated within the framework of a randomized controlled trial. The statistical design of this type of personalized medicine intervention requires special considerations: the distribution of relevant allelic variants in the study population; and whether the pharmacogenetic intervention is equally effective across subpopulations defined by allelic variants.

Methods

The statistical design of the Clarification of Optimal Anticoagulation through Genetics (COAG) trial serves as an illustrative example of a personalized medicine intervention that uses each subject's genotype information. The COAG trial is a multicenter, double blind, randomized clinical trial that will compare two approaches to initiation of warfarin therapy: genotype-guided dosing, the initiation of warfarin therapy based on algorithms using clinical information and genotypes for polymorphisms in CYP2C9 and VKORC1; and clinical-guided dosing, the initiation of warfarin therapy based on algorithms using only clinical information.

Results

We determine an absolute minimum detectable difference of 5.49% based on an assumed 60% population prevalence of zero or multiple genetic variants in either CYP2C9 or VKORC1 and an assumed 15% relative effectiveness of genotype-guided warfarin initiation for those with zero or multiple genetic variants. Thus we calculate a sample size of 1238 to achieve a power level of 80% for the primary outcome. We show that reasonable departures from these assumptions may decrease statistical power to 65%.

Conclusions

In a personalized medicine intervention, the minimum detectable difference used in sample size calculations is not a known quantity, but rather an unknown quantity that depends on the genetic makeup of the subjects enrolled. Given the possible sensitivity of sample size and power calculations to these key assumptions, we recommend that they be monitored during the conduct of a personalized medicine intervention.

Trial Registration

clinicaltrials.gov: NCT00839657

Prospective alpha allocation in the Clarification of Optimal Anticoagulation through Genetics (COAG) trial

BACKGROUND

The Clarification of Optimal Anticoagulation through Genetics (COAG) trial is a large, multicenter, double-blinded, randomized trial to determine whether use of a genotype-guided dosing algorithm (using clinical and genetic information) to initiate warfarin treatment will improve anticoagulation status when compared to a dosing algorithm using only clinical information.

PURPOSE

This article describes prospective alpha allocation and balanced alpha allocation for the design of the COAG trial.

METHODS

The trial involves two possibly heterogeneous populations, which can be distinguished by the difference in warfarin dose as predicted by the two algorithms. A statistical approach is detailed, which allows an overall comparison as well as a comparison of the primary endpoint in the subgroup for which sufficiently different doses are predicted by the two algorithms. Methods of allocating alpha for these analyses are given - a prospective alpha allocation and allocating alpha so that the two analyses have equal power, which we call a 'balanced alpha allocation.'

RESULTS

We show how to include an analysis of the primary endpoint in a subgroup as a co-primary analysis. Power can be improved by incorporating the correlation between the overall and subgroup analyses in a prospective alpha allocation approach. Balanced alpha allocation for the full cohort and subgroup tests to achieve the same desired power for both of the primary analyses is discussed in detail.

LIMITATIONS

In the COAG trial, it is impractical to stratify the randomization on subgroup membership because genetic information may not be available at the time of randomization. If imbalances in the treatment arms in the subgroup are found, they will need to be addressed.

CONCLUSIONS

The design of the COAG trial assures that the subgroup in which the largest treatment difference is expected is elevated to a co-primary analysis. Incorporating the correlation between the full cohort and the subgroup analyses provides an improvement in power for the subgroup comparison, and further improvement may be achieved via a balanced alpha allocation approach when the parameters involved in the sample size calculation are reasonably well estimated.

Testing association for markers on the X chromosome

Test statistics for association between markers on autosomal chromosomes and a disease have been extensively studied. No research has been reported on performance of such test statistics for association on the X chromosome. With 100,000 or more single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) available for genome-wide association studies, thousands of them come from the X chromosome. The X chromosome contains rich information about population history and linkage disequilibrium. To identify X-linked marker susceptibility to a disease, it is important to study properties of various statistics that can be used to test for association on the X chromosome. In this article, we compare performance of several approaches for testing association on the X chromosome, and examine how departure from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium would affect type I error and power of these association tests using X-linked SNPs. The results are applied to the X chromosome of Klein et al. [2005], a genome-wide association study with 100K SNPs for age-related macular degeneration. We found that a SNP (rs10521496) covered by DIAPH2, known to cause premature ovarian failure (POF) in females, is associated with age-related macular degeneration.