Rapid expansion and international spread of M1UK in the post-pandemic UK upsurge of Streptococcus pyogenes

The UK observed a marked increase in scarlet fever and invasive group A streptococcal infection in 2022 with severe outcomes in children and similar trends worldwide. Here we report lineage M1UK to be the dominant source of invasive infections in this upsurge. Compared with ancestral M1global strains, invasive M1UK strains exhibit reduced genomic diversity and fewer mutations in two-component regulator genes covRS. The emergence of M1UK is dated to 2008. Following a bottleneck coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic, three emergent M1UK clades underwent rapid nationwide expansion, despite lack of detection in previous years. All M1UK isolates thus-far sequenced globally have a phylogenetic origin in the UK, with dispersal of the new clades in Europe. While waning immunity may promote streptococcal epidemics, the genetic features of M1UK point to a fitness advantage in pathogenicity, and a striking ability to persist through population bottlenecks.

Klebsiella pneumoniae peptide hijacks a Streptococcus pneumoniae permease to subvert pneumococcal growth and colonization

Treatment of pneumococcal infections is limited by antibiotic resistance and exacerbation of disease by bacterial lysis releasing pneumolysin toxin and other inflammatory factors. We identified a previously uncharacterized peptide in the Klebsiella pneumoniae secretome, which enters Streptococcus pneumoniae via its AmiA-AliA/AliB permease. Subsequent downregulation of genes for amino acid biosynthesis and peptide uptake was associated with reduction of pneumococcal growth in defined medium and human cerebrospinal fluid, irregular cell shape, decreased chain length and decreased genetic transformation. The bacteriostatic effect was specific to S. pneumoniae and Streptococcus pseudopneumoniae with no effect on Streptococcus mitis, Haemophilus influenzae, Staphylococcus aureus or K. pneumoniae. Peptide sequence and length were crucial to growth suppression. The peptide reduced pneumococcal adherence to primary human airway epithelial cell cultures and colonization of rat nasopharynx, without toxicity. We identified a peptide with potential as a therapeutic for pneumococcal diseases suppressing growth of multiple clinical isolates, including antibiotic resistant strains, while avoiding bacterial lysis and dysbiosis.

Estimating Between Country Migration in Pneumococcal Populations

Streptococcus pneumoniae (the pneumococcus) is a globally distributed, human obligate opportunistic bacterial pathogen which, although often carried commensally, is also a significant cause of invasive disease. Apart from multi-drug resistant and virulent clones, the rate and direction of pneumococcal dissemination between different countries remains largely unknown. The ability for the pneumococcus to take a foothold in a country depends on existing population configuration, the extent of vaccine implementation, as well as human mobility since it is a human obligate bacterium. To shed light on its international movement, we used extensive genome data from the Global Pneumococcal Sequencing (GPS) project and estimated migration parameters between multiple countries in Africa. Data on allele frequencies of polymorphisms at housekeeping-like loci for multiple different lineages circulating in the populations of South Africa, Malawi, Kenya, and The Gambia were used to calculate the fixation index (Fst) between countries. We then further used these summaries to fit migration coalescent models with the likelihood-free inference algorithms available in the ELFI software package. Synthetic data were additionally used to validate the inference approach. Our results demonstrate country-pair specific migration patterns and heterogeneity in the extent of migration between different lineages. Our approach demonstrates that coalescent models can be effectively used for inferring migration rates for bacterial species and lineages provided sufficiently granular population genomics surveillance data. Further it can demonstrate the connectivity of respiratory disease agents between countries to inform intervention policy in the longer term.

Modulation of multidrug-resistant clone success in Escherichia coli populations: a longitudinal, multi-country, genomic and antibiotic usage cohort study

BACKGROUND

The effect of antibiotic usage on the success of multidrug-resistant (MDR) clones in a population remains unclear. With this genomics-based molecular epidemiology study, we aimed to investigate the contribution of antibiotic use to Escherichia coli clone success, relative to intra-strain competition for colonisation and infection.

METHODS

We sequenced all the available E coli bloodstream infection isolates provided by the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy (BSAC) from 2012 to 2017 (n=718) and combined these with published data from the UK (2001-11; n=1090) and Norway (2002-17; n=3254). Defined daily dose (DDD) data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (retrieved on Sept 21, 2021) for major antibiotic classes (β-lactam, tetracycline, macrolide, sulfonamide, quinolone, and non-penicillin β-lactam) were used together with sequence typing, resistance profiling, regression analysis, and non-neutral Wright-Fisher simulation-based modelling to enable systematic comparison of resistance levels, clone success, and antibiotic usage between the UK and Norway.

FINDINGS

Sequence type (ST)73, ST131, ST95, and ST69 accounted for 892 (49·3%) of 1808 isolates in the BSAC collection. In the UK, the proportion of ST69 increased between 2001-10 and 2011-17 (p=0·0004), whereas the proportions of ST73 and ST95 did not vary between periods. ST131 expanded quickly after its emergence in 2003 and its prevalence remained consistent throughout the study period (apart from a brief decrease in 2009-10). The extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-carrying, globally disseminated MDR clone ST131-C2 showed overall greater success in the UK (154 [56·8%] of 271 isolates in 2003-17) compared with Norway (51 [18·3%] of 278 isolates in 2002-17; p<0·0001). DDD data indicated higher total use of antimicrobials in the UK, driven mainly by the class of non-penicillin β-lactams, which were used between 2·7-times and 5·1-times more in the UK per annum (ratio mean 3·7 [SD 0·8]). This difference was associated with the higher success of the MDR clone ST131-C2 (pseudo-R2 69·1%). A non-neutral Wright-Fisher model replicated the observed expansion of non-MDR and MDR sequence types under higher DDD regimes.

INTERPRETATION

Our study indicates that resistance profiles of contemporaneously successful clones can vary substantially, warranting caution in the interpretation of correlations between aggregate measures of resistance and antibiotic usage. Our study further suggests that in countries with low-to-moderate use of antibiotics, such as the UK and Norway, the extent of non-penicillin β-lactam use modulates rather than determines the success of widely disseminated MDR ESBL-carrying E coli clones. Detailed understanding of underlying causal drivers of success is important for improved control of resistant pathogens.

FUNDING

Trond Mohn Foundation, Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions, European Research Council, Royal Society, and Wellcome Trust.

Genomic and panproteomic analysis of the development of infant immune responses to antigenically-diverse pneumococci

Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) is a nasopharyngeal commensal and respiratory pathogen. This study characterises the immunoglobulin G (IgG) repertoire recognising pneumococci from birth to 24 months old (mo) in a prospectively-sampled cohort of 63 children using a panproteome array. IgG levels are highest at birth, due to transplacental transmission of maternal antibodies. The subsequent emergence of responses to individual antigens exhibit distinct kinetics across the cohort. Stable differences in the strength of individuals' responses, correlating with maternal IgG concentrations, are established by 6 mo. By 12 mo, children develop unique antibody profiles that are boosted by re-exposure. However, some proteins only stimulate substantial responses in adults. Integrating genomic data on nasopharyngeal colonisation demonstrates rare pneumococcal antigens can elicit strong IgG levels post-exposure. Quantifying such responses to the diverse core loci (DCL) proteins is complicated by cross-immunity between variants. In particular, the conserved N terminus of DCL protein zinc metalloprotease B provokes the strongest early IgG responses. DCL proteins' ability to inhibit mucosal immunity likely explains continued pneumococcal carriage despite hosts' polyvalent antibody repertoire. Yet higher IgG levels are associated with reduced incidence, and severity, of pneumonia, demonstrating the importance of the heterogeneity in response strength and kinetics across antigens and individuals.

Accurate and fast graph-based pangenome annotation and clustering with ggCaller

Bacterial genomes differ in both gene content and sequence mutations, which underlie extensive phenotypic diversity, including variation in susceptibility to antimicrobials or vaccine-induced immunity. To identify and quantify important variants, all genes within a population must be predicted, functionally annotated, and clustered, representing the "pangenome." Despite the volume of genome data available, gene prediction and annotation are currently conducted in isolation on individual genomes, which is computationally inefficient and frequently inconsistent across genomes. Here, we introduce the open-source software graph-gene-caller (ggCaller). ggCaller combines gene prediction, functional annotation, and clustering into a single workflow using population-wide de Bruijn graphs, removing redundancy in gene annotation and resulting in more accurate gene predictions and orthologue clustering. We applied ggCaller to simulated and real-world bacterial data sets containing hundreds or thousands of genomes, comparing it to current state-of-the-art tools. ggCaller has considerable speed-ups with equivalent or greater accuracy, particularly with data sets containing complex sources of error, such as assembly contamination or fragmentation. ggCaller is also an important extension to bacterial genome-wide association studies, enabling querying of annotated graphs for functional analyses. We highlight this application by functionally annotating DNA sequences with significant associations to tetracycline and macrolide resistance in Streptococcus pneumoniae, identifying key resistance determinants that were missed when using only a single reference genome. ggCaller is a novel bacterial genome analysis tool with applications in bacterial evolution and epidemiology.

Pneumococcal capsule expression is controlled through a conserved, distal cis-regulatory element during infection

Streptococcus pneumoniae (the pneumococcus) is the major cause of bacterial pneumonia in the US and worldwide. Studies have shown that the differing chemical make-up between serotypes of its most important virulence factor, the capsule, can dictate disease severity. Here we demonstrate that control of capsule synthesis is also critical for infection and facilitated by two broadly conserved transcription factors, SpxR and CpsR, through a distal cis-regulatory element we name the 37-CE. Strikingly, changing only three nucleotides within this sequence is sufficient to render pneumococcus avirulent. Using in vivo and in vitro approaches, we present a model where SpxR interacts as a unique trimeric quaternary structure with the 37-CE to enable capsule repression in the airways. Considering its dramatic effect on infection, variation of the 37-CE between serotypes suggests this molecular switch could be a critical contributing factor to this pathogen's serotype-specific disease outcomes.

Post-vaccine epidemiology of serotype 3 pneumococci identifies transformation inhibition through prophage-driven alteration of a non-coding RNA

BACKGROUND

The respiratory pathogen Streptococcus pneumoniae (the pneumococcus) is a genetically diverse bacterium associated with over 101 immunologically distinct polysaccharide capsules (serotypes). Polysaccharide conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have successfully eliminated multiple targeted serotypes, yet the mucoid serotype 3 has persisted despite its inclusion in PCV13. This capsule type is predominantly associated with a single globally disseminated strain, GPSC12 (clonal complex 180).

METHODS

A genomic epidemiology study combined previous surveillance datasets of serotype 3 pneumococci to analyse the population structure, dynamics, and differences in rates of diversification within GPSC12 during the period of PCV introductions. Transcriptomic analyses, whole genome sequencing, mutagenesis, and electron microscopy were used to characterise the phenotypic impact of loci hypothesised to affect this strain's evolution.

RESULTS

GPSC12 was split into clades by a genomic analysis. Clade I, the most common, rarely underwent transformation, but was typically infected with the prophage ϕOXC141. Prior to the introduction of PCV13, this clade's composition shifted towards a ϕOXC141-negative subpopulation in a systematically sampled UK collection. In the post-PCV13 era, more rapidly recombining non-Clade I isolates, also ϕOXC141-negative, have risen in prevalence. The low in vitro transformation efficiency of a Clade I isolate could not be fully explained by the ~100-fold reduction attributable to the serotype 3 capsule. Accordingly, prophage ϕOXC141 was found to modify csRNA3, a non-coding RNA that inhibits the induction of transformation. This alteration was identified in ~30% of all pneumococci and was particularly common in the unusually clonal serotype 1 GPSC2 strain. RNA-seq and quantitative reverse transcriptase PCR experiments using a genetically tractable pneumococcus demonstrated the altered csRNA3 was more effective at inhibiting production of the competence-stimulating peptide pheromone. This resulted in a reduction in the induction of competence for transformation.

CONCLUSION

This interference with the quorum sensing needed to induce competence reduces the risk of the prophage being deleted by homologous recombination. Hence the selfish prophage-driven alteration of a regulatory RNA limits cell-cell communication and horizontal gene transfer, complicating the interpretation of post-vaccine population dynamics.

Epidemiological dynamics of bacteriocin competition and antibiotic resistance

Bacteriocins, toxic peptides involved in the competition between bacterial strains, are extremely diverse. Previous work on bacteriocin dynamics has highlighted the role of non-transitive 'rock-paper-scissors' competition in maintaining the coexistence of different bacteriocin profiles. The focus to date has primarily been on bacteriocin interactions at the within-host scale (i.e. within a single bacterial population). Yet in species such as Streptococcus pneumoniae, with relatively short periods of colonization and limited within-host diversity, ecological outcomes are also shaped by processes at the epidemiological (between-host) scale. Here, we first investigate bacteriocin dynamics and diversity in epidemiological models. We find that in these models, bacteriocin diversity is more readily maintained than in within-host models, and with more possible combinations of coexisting bacteriocin profiles. Indeed, maintenance of diversity in epidemiological models does not require rock-paper-scissors dynamics; it can also occur through a competition-colonization trade-off. Second, we investigate the link between bacteriocin diversity and diversity at antibiotic resistance loci. Previous work has proposed that bacterial duration of colonization modulates the fitness of antibiotic resistance. Due to their inhibitory effects, bacteriocins are a plausible candidate for playing a role in the duration of colonization episodes. We extend the epidemiological model of bacteriocin dynamics to incorporate an antibiotic resistance locus and demonstrate that bacteriocin diversity can indeed maintain the coexistence of antibiotic-sensitive and -resistant strains.

Comparative Genomics of Disease and Carriage Serotype 1 Pneumococci

The isolation of Streptococcus pneumoniae serotypes in systemic tissues of patients with invasive disease versus the nasopharynx of healthy individuals with asymptomatic carriage varies widely. Some serotypes are hyper-invasive, particularly serotype 1, but the underlying genetics remain poorly understood due to the rarity of carriage isolates, reducing the power of comparison with invasive isolates. Here, we use a well-controlled genome-wide association study to search for genetic variation associated with invasiveness of serotype 1 pneumococci from a serotype 1 endemic setting in Africa. We found no consensus evidence that certain genomic variation is overrepresented among isolates from patients with invasive disease than asymptomatic carriage. Overall, the genomic variation explained negligible phenotypic variability, suggesting a minimal effect on the disease status. Furthermore, changes in lineage distribution were seen with lineages replacing each other over time, highlighting the importance of continued pathogen surveillance. Our findings suggest that the hyper-invasiveness is an intrinsic property of the serotype 1 strains, not specific for a "disease-associated" subpopulation disproportionately harboring unique genomic variation.

Targeted control of pneumolysin production by a mobile genetic element in Streptococcus pneumoniae

Streptococcus pneumoniae is a major human pathogen that can cause severe invasive diseases such as pneumonia, septicaemia and meningitis. Young children are at a particularly high risk, with an estimated 3-4 million cases of severe disease and between 300 000 and 500 000 deaths attributable to pneumococcal disease each year. The haemolytic toxin pneumolysin (Ply) is a primary virulence factor for this bacterium, yet despite its key role in pathogenesis, immune evasion and transmission, the regulation of Ply production is not well defined. Using a genome-wide association approach, we identified a large number of potential affectors of Ply activity, including a gene acquired horizontally on the antibiotic resistance-conferring Integrative and Conjugative Element (ICE) ICESp23FST81. This gene encodes a novel modular protein, ZomB, which has an N-terminal UvrD-like helicase domain followed by two Cas4-like domains with potent ATP-dependent nuclease activity. We found the regulatory effect of ZomB to be specific for the ply operon, potentially mediated by its high affinity for the BOX repeats encoded therein. Using a murine model of pneumococcal colonization, we further demonstrate that a ZomB mutant strain colonizes both the upper respiratory tract and lungs at higher levels when compared to the wild-type strain. While the antibiotic resistance-conferring aspects of ICESp23FST81 are often credited with contributing to the success of the S. pneumoniae lineages that acquire it, its ability to control the expression of a major virulence factor implicated in bacterial transmission is also likely to have played an important role.

Genome-wide association, prediction and heritability in bacteria with application to Streptococcus pneumoniae

Whole-genome sequencing has facilitated genome-wide analyses of association, prediction and heritability in many organisms. However, such analyses in bacteria are still in their infancy, being limited by difficulties including genome plasticity and strong population structure. Here we propose a suite of methods including linear mixed models, elastic net and LD-score regression, adapted to bacterial traits using innovations such as frequency-based allele coding, both insertion/deletion and nucleotide testing and heritability partitioning. We compare and validate our methods against the current state-of-art using simulations, and analyse three phenotypes of the major human pathogen Streptococcus pneumoniae, including the first analyses of minimum inhibitory concentrations (MIC) for penicillin and ceftriaxone. We show that the MIC traits are highly heritable with high prediction accuracy, explained by many genetic associations under good population structure control. In ceftriaxone MIC, this is surprising because none of the isolates are resistant as per the inhibition zone criteria. We estimate that half of the heritability of penicillin MIC is explained by a known drug-resistance region, which also contributes a quarter of the ceftriaxone MIC heritability. For the within-host carriage duration phenotype, no associations were observed, but the moderate heritability and prediction accuracy indicate a moderately polygenic trait.

Pneumococcal within-host diversity during colonization, transmission and treatment

Characterizing the genetic diversity of pathogens within the host promises to greatly improve surveillance and reconstruction of transmission chains. For bacteria, it also informs our understanding of inter-strain competition and how this shapes the distribution of resistant and sensitive bacteria. Here we study the genetic diversity of Streptococcus pneumoniae within 468 infants and 145 of their mothers by deep sequencing whole pneumococcal populations from 3,761 longitudinal nasopharyngeal samples. We demonstrate that deep sequencing has unsurpassed sensitivity for detecting multiple colonization, doubling the rate at which highly invasive serotype 1 bacteria were detected in carriage compared with gold-standard methods. The greater resolution identified an elevated rate of transmission from mothers to their children in the first year of the child's life. Comprehensive treatment data demonstrated that infants were at an elevated risk of both the acquisition and persistent colonization of a multidrug-resistant bacterium following antimicrobial treatment. Some alleles were enriched after antimicrobial treatment, suggesting that they aided persistence, but generally purifying selection dominated within-host evolution. Rates of co-colonization imply that in the absence of treatment, susceptible lineages outcompeted resistant lineages within the host. These results demonstrate the many benefits of deep sequencing for the genomic surveillance of bacterial pathogens.

Alterations in chromosomal genes nfsA, nfsB, and ribE are associated with nitrofurantoin resistance in Escherichia coli from the United Kingdom

Antimicrobial resistance in enteric or urinary Escherichia coli is a risk factor for invasive E. coli infections. Due to widespread trimethoprim resistance amongst urinary E. coli and increased bacteraemia incidence, a national recommendation to prescribe nitrofurantoin for uncomplicated urinary tract infection was made in 2014. Nitrofurantoin resistance is reported in <6% urinary E. coli isolates in the UK, however, mechanisms underpinning nitrofurantoin resistance in these isolates remain unknown. This study aimed to identify the genetic basis of nitrofurantoin resistance in urinary E. coli isolates collected from north west London and then elucidate resistance-associated genetic alterations in available UK E. coli genomes. As a result, an algorithm was developed to predict nitrofurantoin susceptibility. Deleterious mutations and gene-inactivating insertion sequences in chromosomal nitroreductase genes nfsA and/or nfsB were identified in genomes of nine confirmed nitrofurantoin-resistant urinary E. coli isolates and additional 11 E. coli isolates that were highlighted by the prediction algorithm and subsequently validated to be nitrofurantoin-resistant. Eight categories of allelic changes in nfsA, nfsB, and the associated gene ribE were detected in 12412 E. coli genomes from the UK. Evolutionary analysis of these three genes revealed homoplasic mutations and explained the previously reported order of stepwise mutations. The mobile gene complex oqxAB, which is associated with reduced nitrofurantoin susceptibility, was identified in only one of the 12412 genomes. In conclusion, mutations and insertion sequences in nfsA and nfsB were leading causes of nitrofurantoin resistance in UK E. coli. As nitrofurantoin exposure increases in human populations, the prevalence of nitrofurantoin resistance in carriage E. coli isolates and those from urinary and bloodstream infections should be monitored.

RCandy: an R package for visualizing homologous recombinations in bacterial genomes

SUMMARY

Homologous recombination is an important evolutionary process in bacteria and other prokaryotes, which increases genomic sequence diversity and can facilitate adaptation. Several methods and tools have been developed to detect genomic regions recently affected by recombination. Exploration and visualization of such recombination events can reveal valuable biological insights, but it remains challenging. Here, we present RCandy, a platform-independent R package for rapid, simple and flexible visualization of recombination events in bacterial genomes.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

RCandy is an R package freely available for use under the MIT license. It is platform-independent and has been tested on Windows, Linux and MacOSX. The source code comes together with a detailed vignette available on GitHub at https://github.com/ChrispinChaguza/RCandy.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

The role of interspecies recombination in the evolution of antibiotic-resistant pneumococci

Multidrug-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae emerge through the modification of core genome loci by interspecies homologous recombinations, and acquisition of gene cassettes. Both occurred in the otherwise contrasting histories of the antibiotic-resistant S. pneumoniae lineages PMEN3 and PMEN9. A single PMEN3 clade spread globally, evading vaccine-induced immunity through frequent serotype switching, whereas locally circulating PMEN9 clades independently gained resistance. Both lineages repeatedly integrated Tn916-type and Tn1207.1-type elements, conferring tetracycline and macrolide resistance, respectively, through homologous recombination importing sequences originating in other species. A species-wide dataset found over 100 instances of such interspecific acquisitions of resistance cassettes and flanking homologous arms. Phylodynamic analysis of the most commonly sampled Tn1207.1-type insertion in PMEN9, originating from a commensal and disrupting a competence gene, suggested its expansion across Germany was driven by a high ratio of macrolide-to-β-lactam consumption. Hence, selection from antibiotic consumption was sufficient for these atypically large recombinations to overcome species boundaries across the pneumococcal chromosome.

Emergence and dissemination of antimicrobial resistance in Escherichia coli causing bloodstream infections in Norway in 2002-17: a nationwide, longitudinal, microbial population genomic study

BACKGROUND

The clonal diversity underpinning trends in multidrug resistant Escherichia coli causing bloodstream infections remains uncertain. We aimed to determine the contribution of individual clones to resistance over time, using large-scale genomics-based molecular epidemiology.

METHODS

This was a longitudinal, E coli population, genomic, cohort study that sampled isolates from 22 512 E coli bloodstream infections included in the Norwegian surveillance programme on resistant microbes (NORM) from 2002 to 2017. 15 of 22 laboratories were able to share their isolates, and the first 22·5% of isolates from each year were requested. We used whole genome sequencing to infer the population structure (PopPUNK), and we investigated the clade composition of the dominant multidrug resistant clonal complex (CC)131 using genetic markers previously reported for sequence type (ST)131, effective population size (BEAST), and presence of determinants of antimicrobial resistance (ARIBA, PointFinder, and ResFinder databases) over time. We compared these features between the 2002-10 and 2011-17 time periods. We also compared our results with those of a longitudinal study from the UK done between 2001 and 2011.

FINDINGS

Of the 3500 isolates requested from the participating laboratories, 3397 (97·1%) were received, of which 3254 (95·8%) were successfully sequenced and included in the analysis. A significant increase in the number of multidrug resistant CC131 isolates from 71 (5·6%) of 1277 in 2002-10 to 207 (10·5%) of 1977 in 2011-17 (p<0·0001), was the largest clonal expansion. CC131 was the most common clone in extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-positive isolates (75 [58·6%] of 128) and fluoroquinolone non-susceptible isolates (148 [39·2%] of 378). Within CC131, clade A increased in prevalence from 2002, whereas the global multidrug resistant clade C2 was not observed until 2007. Multiple de-novo acquisitions of both blaCTX-M ESBL-encoding genes in clades A and C1 and gain of phenotypic fluoroquinolone non-susceptibility across the clade A phylogeny were observed. We estimated that exponential increases in the effective population sizes of clades A, C1, and C2 occurred in the mid-2000s, and in clade B a decade earlier. The rate of increase in the estimated effective population size of clade A (Ne=3147) was nearly ten-times that of C2 (Ne=345), with clade A over-represented in Norwegian CC131 isolates (75 [27·0%] of 278) compared with the UK study (8 [5·4%] of 147 isolates).

INTERPRETATION

The early and sustained establishment of predominantly antimicrobial susceptible CC131 clade A isolates, relative to multidrug resistant clade C2 isolates, suggests that resistance is not necessary for clonal success. However, even in the low antibiotic use setting of Norway, resistance to important antimicrobial classes has rapidly been selected for in CC131 clade A isolates. This study shows the importance of genomic surveillance in uncovering the complex ecology underlying multidrug resistance dissemination and competition, which have implications for the design of strategies and interventions to control the spread of high-risk multidrug resistant clones.

FUNDING

Trond Mohn Foundation, European Research Council, Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions, and the Wellcome Trust.

Negative frequency-dependent selection and asymmetrical transformation stabilise multi-strain bacterial population structures

Streptococcus pneumoniae can be divided into many strains, each a distinct set of isolates sharing similar core and accessory genomes, which co-circulate within the same hosts. Previous analyses suggested the short-term vaccine-associated dynamics of S. pneumoniae strains may be mediated through multi-locus negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS), which maintains accessory loci at equilibrium frequencies. Long-term simulations demonstrated NFDS stabilised clonally-evolving multi-strain populations through preventing the loss of variation through drift, based on polymorphism frequencies, pairwise genetic distances and phylogenies. However, allowing symmetrical recombination between isolates evolving under multi-locus NFDS generated unstructured populations of diverse genotypes. Replication of the observed data improved when multi-locus NFDS was combined with recombination that was instead asymmetrical, favouring deletion of accessory loci over insertion. This combination separated populations into strains through outbreeding depression, resulting from recombinants with reduced accessory genomes having lower fitness than their parental genotypes. Although simplistic modelling of recombination likely limited these simulations' ability to maintain some properties of genomic data as accurately as those lacking recombination, the combination of asymmetrical recombination and multi-locus NFDS could restore multi-strain population structures from randomised initial populations. As many bacteria inhibit insertions into their chromosomes, this combination may commonly underlie the co-existence of strains within a niche.

Lineage-specific evolution and gene flow in Listeria monocytogenes are independent of bacteriophages

Listeria monocytogenes is a foodborne pathogen causing systemic infection with high mortality. To allow efficient tracking of outbreaks a clear definition of the genomic signature of a cluster of related isolates is required, but lineage-specific characteristics call for a more detailed understanding of evolution. In our work, we used core genome MLST (cgMLST) to identify new outbreaks combined to core genome SNP analysis to characterize the population structure and gene flow between lineages. Whilst analysing differences between the four lineages of L. monocytogenes we have detected differences in the recombination rate, and interestingly also divergence in the SNP differences between sub-lineages. In addition, the exchange of core genome variation between the lineages exhibited a distinct pattern, with lineage III being the best donor for horizontal gene transfer. Whilst attempting to link bacteriophage-mediated transduction to observed gene transfer, we found an inverse correlation between phage presence in a lineage and the extent of recombination. Irrespective of the profound differences in recombination rates observed between sub-lineages and lineages, we found that the previously proposed cut-off of 10 allelic differences in cgMLST can be still considered valid for the definition of a foodborne outbreak cluster of L. monocytogenes.

Divergent serotype replacement trends and increasing diversity in pneumococcal disease in high income settings reduce the benefit of expanding vaccine valency

Streptococcus pneumoniae is a significant cause of otitis media, pneumonia, and meningitis. Only seven of the approximately 100 serotypes were initially included in the pneumococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine (PCV) in 2000 before it was expanded in subsequent years. Although the invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) incidence due to vaccine serotypes (VT) has declined, partial replacement by non-vaccine serotypes (NVT) was observed following widespread vaccine uptake. We conducted a trend analysis assembling the available evidence for PCV impact on European, North American and Australian national IPD. Significant effectiveness against VT IPD in infants was observed, although the impact on national IPD incidence varied internationally due to serotype replacement. Currently, NVT serotypes 8, 9N, 15A and 23B are increasing in the countries assessed, although a variety of other NVTs are affecting each country and age group. Despite these common emerging serotypes, there has not been a dominant IPD serotype post-vaccination as there was pre-vaccination (serotype 14) or post-PCV7 (serotype 19A), suggesting that future vaccines with additional serotypes will be less effective at targeting and reducing IPD in global populations than previous PCVs. The rise of diverse NVTs in all settings’ top-ranked IPD-causing serotypes emphasizes the urgent need for surveillance data on serotype distribution and serotype-specific invasiveness post-vaccination to facilitate decision making concerning both expanding current vaccination programmes and increasing vaccine valency.

Frequency-dependent selection can forecast evolution in Streptococcus pneumoniae

Predicting how pathogen populations will change over time is challenging. Such has been the case with Streptococcus pneumoniae, an important human pathogen, and the pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), which target only a fraction of the strains in the population. Here, we use the frequencies of accessory genes to predict changes in the pneumococcal population after vaccination, hypothesizing that these frequencies reflect negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS) on the gene products. We find that the standardized predicted fitness of a strain, estimated by an NFDS-based model at the time the vaccine is introduced, enables us to predict whether the strain increases or decreases in prevalence following vaccination. Further, we are able to forecast the equilibrium post-vaccine population composition and assess the invasion capacity of emerging lineages. Overall, we provide a method for predicting the impact of an intervention on pneumococcal populations with potential application to other bacterial pathogens in which NFDS is a driving force.

Predicting the future distribution of antibiotic resistance using time series forecasting and geospatial modelling

Background: Increasing antibiotic resistance in a location may be mitigated by changes in treatment policy, or interventions to limit transmission of resistant bacteria. Therefore, accurate forecasting of the distribution of antibiotic resistance could be advantageous. Two previously published studies addressed this, but neither study compared alternative forecasting algorithms or considered spatial patterns of resistance spread. Methods: We analysed data describing the annual prevalence of antibiotic resistance per country in Europe from 2012 – 2016, and the quarterly prevalence of antibiotic resistance per clinical commissioning group in England from 2015 – 2018. We combined these with data on rates of possible covariates of resistance. These data were used to compare the previously published forecasting models, with other commonly used forecasting models, including one geospatial model. Covariates were incorporated into the geospatial model to assess their relationship with antibiotic resistance. Results: For the European data, which was recorded on a coarse spatiotemporal scale, a naïve forecasting model was consistently the most accurate of any of the forecasting models tested. The geospatial model did not improve on this accuracy. However, it did provide some evidence that antibiotic consumption can partially explain the distribution of resistance. The English data were aggregated at a finer scale, and expected-trend-seasonal (ETS) forecasts were the most accurate. The geospatial model did not significantly improve upon the median accuracy of the ETS model, but it appeared to be less sensitive to noise in the data, and provided evidence that rates of antibiotic prescription and bacteraemia are correlated with resistance. Conclusion: Annual, national-level surveillance data appears to be insufficient for fitting accurate antibiotic resistance forecasting models, but there is evidence that data collected at a finer spatiotemporal scale could be used to improve forecast accuracy. Additionally, incorporating antibiotic prescription or consumption data into the model could improve the predictive accuracy.

Horizontal gene transfer rate is not the primary determinant of observed antibiotic resistance frequencies in Streptococcus pneumoniae

The extent to which evolution is constrained by the rate at which horizontal gene transfer (HGT) allows DNA to move between genetic lineages is an open question, which we address in the context of antibiotic resistance in Streptococcus pneumoniae. We analyze microbiological, genomic, and epidemiological data from the largest-to-date sequenced pneumococcal carriage study in 955 infants from a refugee camp on the Thailand-Myanmar border. Using a unified framework, we simultaneously test prior hypotheses on rates of HGT and a key evolutionary covariate (duration of carriage) as determinants of resistance frequencies. We conclude that in this setting, there is little evidence of HGT playing a major role in determining resistance frequencies. Instead, observed resistance frequencies are best explained as the outcome of selection acting on a pool of variants, irrespective of the rate at which resistance determinants move between genetic lineages.

Visualizing variation within Global Pneumococcal Sequence Clusters (GPSCs) and country population snapshots to contextualize pneumococcal isolates

Knowledge of pneumococcal lineages, their geographic distribution and antibiotic resistance patterns, can give insights into global pneumococcal disease. We provide interactive bioinformatic outputs to explore such topics, aiming to increase dissemination of genomic insights to the wider community, without the need for specialist training. We prepared 12 country-specific phylogenetic snapshots, and international phylogenetic snapshots of 73 common Global Pneumococcal Sequence Clusters (GPSCs) previously defined using PopPUNK, and present them in Microreact. Gene presence and absence defined using Roary, and recombination profiles derived from Gubbins are presented in Phandango for each GPSC. Temporal phylogenetic signal was assessed for each GPSC using BactDating. We provide examples of how such resources can be used. In our example use of a country-specific phylogenetic snapshot we determined that serotype 14 was observed in nine unrelated genetic backgrounds in South Africa. The international phylogenetic snapshot of GPSC9, in which most serotype 14 isolates from South Africa were observed, highlights that there were three independent sub-clusters represented by South African serotype 14 isolates. We estimated from the GPSC9-dated tree that the sub-clusters were each established in South Africa during the 1980s. We show how recombination plots allowed the identification of a 20 kb recombination spanning the capsular polysaccharide locus within GPSC97. This was consistent with a switch from serotype 6A to 19A estimated to have occured in the 1990s from the GPSC97-dated tree. Plots of gene presence/absence of resistance genes (tet, erm, cat) across the GPSC23 phylogeny were consistent with acquisition of a composite transposon. We estimated from the GPSC23-dated tree that the acquisition occurred between 1953 and 1975. Finally, we demonstrate the assignment of GPSC31 to 17 externally generated pneumococcal serotype 1 assemblies from Utah via Pathogenwatch. Most of the Utah isolates clustered within GPSC31 in a USA-specific clade with the most recent common ancestor estimated between 1958 and 1981. The resources we have provided can be used to explore to data, test hypothesis and generate new hypotheses. The accessible assignment of GPSCs allows others to contextualize their own collections beyond the data presented here.

Designing ecologically optimized pneumococcal vaccines using population genomics

Streptococcus pneumoniae (the pneumococcus) is a common nasopharyngeal commensal that can cause invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). Each component of current protein-polysaccharide conjugate vaccines (PCVs) generally induces immunity specific to one of the approximately 100 pneumococcal serotypes, and typically eliminates it from carriage and IPD through herd immunity. Overall carriage rates remain stable owing to replacement by non-PCV serotypes. Consequently, the net change in IPD incidence is determined by the relative invasiveness of the pre- and post-PCV-carried pneumococcal populations. In the present study, we identified PCVs expected to minimize the post-vaccine IPD burden by applying Bayesian optimization to an ecological model of serotype replacement that integrated epidemiological and genomic data. We compared optimal formulations for reducing infant-only or population-wide IPD, and identified potential benefits to including non-conserved pneumococcal carrier proteins. Vaccines were also devised to minimize IPD resistant to antibiotic treatment, despite the ecological model assuming that resistance levels in the carried population would be preserved. We found that expanding infant-administered PCV valency is likely to result in diminishing returns, and that complementary pairs of infant- and adult-administered vaccines could be a superior strategy. PCV performance was highly dependent on the circulating pneumococcal population, further highlighting the advantages of a diversity of anti-pneumococcal vaccination strategies.

The Contribution of Genetic Variation of Streptococcus pneumoniae to the Clinical Manifestation of Invasive Pneumococcal Disease

Background

Different clinical manifestations of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) have thus far mainly been explained by patient characteristics. Here we studied the contribution of pneumococcal genetic variation to IPD phenotype.

Methods

The index cohort consisted of 349 patients admitted to 2 Dutch hospitals between 2000-2011 with pneumococcal bacteremia. We performed genome-wide association studies to identify pneumococcal lineages, genes, and allelic variants associated with 23 clinical IPD phenotypes. The identified associations were validated in a nationwide (n = 482) and a post-pneumococcal vaccination cohort (n = 121). The contribution of confirmed pneumococcal genotypes to the clinical IPD phenotype, relative to known clinical predictors, was tested by regression analysis.

Results

Among IPD patients, the presence of pneumococcal gene slaA was a nationwide confirmed independent predictor of meningitis (odds ratio [OR], 10.5; P = .001), as was sequence cluster 9 (serotype 7F: OR, 3.68; P = .057). A set of 4 pneumococcal genes co-located on a prophage was a confirmed independent predictor of 30-day mortality (OR, 3.4; P = .003). We could detect the pneumococcal variants of concern in these patients' blood samples.

Conclusions

In this study, knowledge of pneumococcal genotypic variants improved the clinical risk assessment for detrimental manifestations of IPD. This provides us with novel opportunities to target, anticipate, or avert the pathogenic effects related to particular pneumococcal variants, and indicates that information on pneumococcal genotype is important for the diagnostic and treatment strategy in IPD. Ongoing surveillance is warranted to monitor the clinical value of information on pneumococcal variants in dynamic microbial and susceptible host populations.

Genome-wide epistasis and co-selection study using mutual information

Covariance-based discovery of polymorphisms under co-selective pressure or epistasis has received considerable recent attention in population genomics. Both statistical modeling of the population level covariation of alleles across the chromosome and model-free testing of dependencies between pairs of polymorphisms have been shown to successfully uncover patterns of selection in bacterial populations. Here we introduce a model-free method, SpydrPick, whose computational efficiency enables analysis at the scale of pan-genomes of many bacteria. SpydrPick incorporates an efficient correction for population structure, which adjusts for the phylogenetic signal in the data without requiring an explicit phylogenetic tree. We also introduce a new type of visualization of the results similar to the Manhattan plots used in genome-wide association studies, which enables rapid exploration of the identified signals of co-evolution. Simulations demonstrate the usefulness of our method and give some insight to when this type of analysis is most likely to be successful. Application of the method to large population genomic datasets of two major human pathogens, Streptococcus pneumoniae and Neisseria meningitidis, revealed both previously identified and novel putative targets of co-selection related to virulence and antibiotic resistance, highlighting the potential of this approach to drive molecular discoveries, even in the absence of phenotypic data.

Genomic epidemiology of penicillin-non-susceptible Streptococcus pneumoniae

Penicillin-non-susceptible Streptococcus pneumoniae (PNSP) were first detected in the 1960s, and are now common worldwide, predominantly through the international spread of a limited number of strains. Extant PNSP are characterized by mosaic pbp2x, pbp2b and pbp1a genes generated by interspecies recombinations, with the extent of these alterations determining the range and concentrations of β-lactams to which the genotype is non-susceptible. The complexity of the genetics underlying these phenotypes has been the subject of both molecular microbiology and genome-wide association and epistasis analyses. Such studies can aid our understanding of PNSP evolution and help improve the already highly-performing bioinformatic methods capable of identifying PNSP from genomic surveillance data.

Synergistic Activity of Mobile Genetic Element Defences in Streptococcus pneumoniae

A diverse set of mobile genetic elements (MGEs) transmit between Streptococcus pneumoniae cells, but many isolates remain uninfected. The best-characterised defences against horizontal transmission of MGEs are restriction-modification systems (RMSs), of which there are two phase-variable examples in S. pneumoniae. Additionally, the transformation machinery has been proposed to limit vertical transmission of chromosomally integrated MGEs. This work describes how these mechanisms can act in concert. Experimental data demonstrate RMS phase variation occurs at a sub-maximal rate. Simulations suggest this may be optimal if MGEs are sometimes vertically inherited, as it reduces the probability that an infected cell will switch between RMS variants while the MGE is invading the population, and thereby undermine the restriction barrier. Such vertically inherited MGEs can be deleted by transformation. The lack of between-strain transformation hotspots at known prophage att sites suggests transformation cannot remove an MGE from a strain in which it is fixed. However, simulations confirmed that transformation was nevertheless effective at preventing the spread of MGEs into a previously uninfected cell population, if a recombination barrier existed between co-colonising strains. Further simulations combining these effects of phase variable RMSs and transformation found they synergistically inhibited MGEs spreading, through limiting both vertical and horizontal transmission.

Peptide Occurring in Enterobacteriaceae Triggers Streptococcus pneumoniae Cell Death

Non-encapsulated Streptococcus pneumoniae often possess two genes, aliB-like ORF 1 and aliB-like ORF 2, in place of capsule genes. AliB-like ORF 1 is thought to encode a substrate binding protein of an ABC transporter which binds peptide SETTFGRDFN, found in 50S ribosomal subunit protein L4 of Enterobacteriaceae. Here, we investigated the effect of binding of AliB-like ORF 1 peptide on the transcriptome and proteome of non-encapsulated pneumococci. We found upregulation of gene expression of a metacaspase and a gene encoding N-acetylmuramoyl-L-alanine amidase, both of which are proposed to be involved in programmed cell death in prokaryotic cells. Proteome profiling indicated upregulation of transcriptional regulators and downregulation of metabolism-associated genes. Exposure to the peptide specifically triggered death in pneumococci which express AliB-like ORF 1, with the bacteria having an apoptotic appearance by electron microscopy. We propose that binding of the AliB-like ORF 1 peptide ligand by the pneumococcus signals a challenging environment with hostile bacterial species leading to death of a proportion of the pneumococcal population.

Excision-reintegration at a pneumococcal phase-variable restriction-modification locus drives within- and between-strain epigenetic differentiation and inhibits gene acquisition

Phase-variation of Type I restriction-modification systems can rapidly alter the sequence motifs they target, diversifying both the epigenetic patterns and endonuclease activity within clonally descended populations. Here, we characterize the Streptococcus pneumoniae SpnIV phase-variable Type I RMS, encoded by the translocating variable restriction (tvr) locus, to identify its target motifs, mechanism and regulation of phase variation, and effects on exchange of sequence through transformation. The specificity-determining hsdS genes were shuffled through a recombinase-mediated excision-reintegration mechanism involving circular intermediate molecules, guided by two types of direct repeat. The rate of rearrangements was limited by an attenuator and toxin-antitoxin system homologs that inhibited recombinase gene transcription. Target motifs for both the SpnIV, and multiple Type II, MTases were identified through methylation-sensitive sequencing of a panel of recombinase-null mutants. This demonstrated the species-wide diversity observed at the tvr locus can likely specify nine different methylation patterns. This will reduce sequence exchange in this diverse species, as the native form of the SpnIV RMS was demonstrated to inhibit the acquisition of genomic islands by transformation. Hence the tvr locus can drive variation in genome methylation both within and between strains, and limits the genomic plasticity of S. pneumoniae.

Bayesian inference of ancestral dates on bacterial phylogenetic trees

The sequencing and comparative analysis of a collection of bacterial genomes from a single species or lineage of interest can lead to key insights into its evolution, ecology or epidemiology. The tool of choice for such a study is often to build a phylogenetic tree, and more specifically when possible a dated phylogeny, in which the dates of all common ancestors are estimated. Here, we propose a new Bayesian methodology to construct dated phylogenies which is specifically designed for bacterial genomics. Unlike previous Bayesian methods aimed at building dated phylogenies, we consider that the phylogenetic relationships between the genomes have been previously evaluated using a standard phylogenetic method, which makes our methodology much faster and scalable. This two-step approach also allows us to directly exploit existing phylogenetic methods that detect bacterial recombination, and therefore to account for the effect of recombination in the construction of a dated phylogeny. We analysed many simulated datasets in order to benchmark the performance of our approach in a wide range of situations. Furthermore, we present applications to three different real datasets from recent bacterial genomic studies. Our methodology is implemented in a R package called BactDating which is freely available for download at https://github.com/xavierdidelot/BactDating.

Joint sequencing of human and pathogen genomes reveals the genetics of pneumococcal meningitis

Streptococcus pneumoniae is a common nasopharyngeal colonizer, but can also cause life-threatening invasive diseases such as empyema, bacteremia and meningitis. Genetic variation of host and pathogen is known to play a role in invasive pneumococcal disease, though to what extent is unknown. In a genome-wide association study of human and pathogen we show that human variation explains almost half of variation in susceptibility to pneumococcal meningitis and one-third of variation in severity, identifying variants in CCDC33 associated with susceptibility. Pneumococcal genetic variation explains a large amount of invasive potential (70%), but has no effect on severity. Serotype alone is insufficient to explain invasiveness, suggesting other pneumococcal factors are involved in progression to invasive disease. We identify pneumococcal genes involved in invasiveness including pspC and zmpD, and perform a human-bacteria interaction analysis. These genes are potential candidates for the development of more broadly-acting pneumococcal vaccines.

International genomic definition of pneumococcal lineages, to contextualise disease, antibiotic resistance and vaccine impact

BACKGROUND

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines have reduced the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease, caused by vaccine serotypes, but non-vaccine-serotypes remain a concern. We used whole genome sequencing to study pneumococcal serotype, antibiotic resistance and invasiveness, in the context of genetic background.

METHODS

Our dataset of 13,454 genomes, combined with four published genomic datasets, represented Africa (40%), Asia (25%), Europe (19%), North America (12%), and South America (5%). These 20,027 pneumococcal genomes were clustered into lineages using PopPUNK, and named Global Pneumococcal Sequence Clusters (GPSCs). From our dataset, we additionally derived serotype and sequence type, and predicted antibiotic sensitivity. We then measured invasiveness using odds ratios that relating prevalence in invasive pneumococcal disease to carriage.

FINDINGS

The combined collections (n = 20,027) were clustered into 621 GPSCs. Thirty-five GPSCs observed in our dataset were represented by >100 isolates, and subsequently classed as dominant-GPSCs. In 22/35 (63%) of dominant-GPSCs both non-vaccine serotypes and vaccine serotypes were observed in the years up until, and including, the first year of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine introduction. Penicillin and multidrug resistance were higher (p < .05) in a subset dominant-GPSCs (14/35, 9/35 respectively), and resistance to an increasing number of antibiotic classes was associated with increased recombination (R2 = 0.27 p < .0001). In 28/35 dominant-GPSCs, the country of isolation was a significant predictor (p < .05) of its antibiogram (mean misclassification error 0.28, SD ± 0.13). We detected increased invasiveness of six genetic backgrounds, when compared to other genetic backgrounds expressing the same serotype. Up to 1.6-fold changes in invasiveness odds ratio were observed.

INTERPRETATION

We define GPSCs that can be assigned to any pneumococcal genomic dataset, to aid international comparisons. Existing non-vaccine-serotypes in most GPSCs preclude the removal of these lineages by pneumococcal conjugate vaccines; leaving potential for serotype replacement. A subset of GPSCs have increased resistance, and/or serotype-independent invasiveness.

Diversification of Colonization Factors in a Multidrug-Resistant Escherichia coli Lineage Evolving under Negative Frequency-Dependent Selection

Escherichia coli is a major cause of bloodstream and urinary tract infections globally. The wide dissemination of multidrug-resistant (MDR) strains of extraintestinal pathogenic E. coli (ExPEC) poses a rapidly increasing public health burden due to narrowed treatment options and increased risk of failure to clear an infection. Here, we present a detailed population genomic analysis of the ExPEC ST131 clone, in which we seek explanations for its success as an emerging pathogenic strain beyond the acquisition of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) genes. We show evidence for evolution toward separate ecological niches for the main clades of ST131 and differential evolution of anaerobic metabolism, key colonization, and virulence factors. We further demonstrate that negative frequency-dependent selection acting across accessory loci is a major mechanism that has shaped the population evolution of this pathogen.IMPORTANCE Infections with multidrug-resistant (MDR) strains of Escherichia coli are a significant global public health concern. To combat these pathogens, we need a deeper understanding of how they evolved from their background populations. By understanding the processes that underpin their emergence, we can design new strategies to limit evolution of new clones and combat existing clones. By combining population genomics with modelling approaches, we show that dominant MDR clones of E. coli are under the influence of negative frequency-dependent selection, preventing them from rising to fixation in a population. Furthermore, we show that this selection acts on genes involved in anaerobic metabolism, suggesting that this key trait, and the ability to colonize human intestinal tracts, is a key step in the evolution of MDR clones of E. coli.

Population genomics of pneumococcal carriage in Massachusetts children following introduction of PCV-13

The 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-13) was introduced in the United States in 2010. Using a large paediatric carriage sample collected from shortly after the introduction of PCV-7 to several years after the introduction of PCV-13, we investigate alterations in the composition of the pneumococcal population following the introduction of PCV-13, evaluating the extent to which the post-vaccination non-vaccine type (NVT) population mirrors that from prior to vaccine introduction and the effect of PCV-13 on vaccine type lineages. Draft genome assemblies from 736 newly sequenced and 616 previously published pneumococcal carriage isolates from children in Massachusetts between 2001 and 2014 were analysed. Isolates were classified into one of 22 sequence clusters (SCs) on the basis of their core genome sequence. We calculated the SC diversity for each sampling period as the probability that any two randomly drawn isolates from that period belong to different SCs. The sampling period immediately after the introduction of PCV-13 (2011) was found to have higher diversity than preceding (2007) or subsequent (2014) sampling periods {Simpson’s D 2007: 0.915 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.901, 0.929]; 2011:  0.935 [0.927, 0.942]; 2014 :  0.912 [0.901, 0.923]}. Amongst NVT isolates, we found the distribution of SCs in 2011 to be significantly different from that in 2007 or 2014 (Fisher’s exact test P=0.018, 0.0078), but did not find a difference comparing 2007 to 2014 (Fisher’s exact test P=0.24), indicating greater similarity between samples separated by a longer time period than between samples from closer time periods. We also found changes in the accessory gene content of the NVT population between 2007 and 2011 to have been reduced by 2014. Amongst the new serotypes targeted by PCV-13, four were present in our sample. The proportion of our sample composed of PCV-13-only vaccine serotypes 19A, 6C and 7F decreased between 2007 and 2014, but no such reduction was seen for serotype 3. We did, however, observe differences in the genetic composition of the pre- and post-PCV-13 serotype 3 population. Our isolates were collected during discrete sampling periods from a small geographical area, which may limit the generalizability of our findings. Pneumococcal diversity increased immediately following the introduction of PCV-13, but subsequently returned to pre-vaccination levels. This is reflected in the distribution of NVT lineages, and, to a lesser extent, their accessory gene frequencies. As such, there may be a period during which the population is particularly disrupted by vaccination before returning to a more stable distribution. The persistence and shifting genetic composition of serotype 3 is a concern and warrants further investigation.

Fast and flexible bacterial genomic epidemiology with PopPUNK

The routine use of genomics for disease surveillance provides the opportunity for high-resolution bacterial epidemiology. Current whole-genome clustering and multilocus typing approaches do not fully exploit core and accessory genomic variation, and they cannot both automatically identify, and subsequently expand, clusters of significantly similar isolates in large data sets spanning entire species. Here, we describe PopPUNK (Population Partitioning Using Nucleotide K-mers), a software implementing scalable and expandable annotation- and alignment-free methods for population analysis and clustering. Variable-length k-mer comparisons are used to distinguish isolates’ divergence in shared sequence and gene content, which we demonstrate to be accurate over multiple orders of magnitude using data from both simulations and genomic collections representing 10 taxonomically widespread species. Connections between closely related isolates of the same strain are robustly identified, despite interspecies variation in the pairwise distance distributions that reflects species’ diverse evolutionary patterns. PopPUNK can process 10³–10⁴ genomes in a single batch, with minimal memory use and runtimes up to 200-fold faster than existing model-based methods. Clusters of strains remain consistent as new batches of genomes are added, which is achieved without needing to reanalyze all genomes de novo. This facilitates real-time surveillance with consistent cluster naming between studies and allows for outbreak detection using hundreds of genomes in minutes. Interactive visualization and online publication is streamlined through the automatic output of results to multiple platforms. PopPUNK has been designed as a flexible platform that addresses important issues with currently used whole-genome clustering and typing methods, and has potential uses across bacterial genetics and public health research.

Panproteome-wide analysis of antibody responses to whole cell pneumococcal vaccination

Pneumococcal whole cell vaccines (WCVs) could cost-effectively protect against a greater strain diversity than current capsule-based vaccines. Immunoglobulin G (IgG) responses to a WCV were characterised by applying longitudinally-sampled sera, available from 35 adult placebo-controlled phase I trial participants, to a panproteome microarray. Despite individuals maintaining distinctive antibody ‘fingerprints’, responses were consistent across vaccinated cohorts. Seventy-two functionally distinct proteins were associated with WCV-induced increases in IgG binding. These shared characteristics with naturally immunogenic proteins, being enriched for transporters and cell wall metabolism enzymes, likely unusually exposed on the unencapsulated WCV’s surface. Vaccine-induced responses were specific to variants of the diverse PclA, PspC and ZmpB proteins, whereas PspA- and ZmpA-induced antibodies recognised a broader set of alleles. Temporal variation in IgG levels suggested a mixture of anamnestic and novel responses. These reproducible increases in IgG binding to a limited, but functionally diverse, set of conserved proteins indicate WCV could provide species-wide immunity.

Clinical trial registration: The trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov with Identifier NCT01537185; the results are available from https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/results/NCT01537185.

Streptococcus pneumoniae is a bug that causes pneumonia and meningitis, killing around a million people each year. Vaccines now exist to protect young children against these diseases, but they are expensive and do not work against all the strains of the bacteria. This is because these shots train the body’s immune system to recognize and attack the bacterium’s capsule, a layer of sugars that surrounds the microbe and is often different between strains.

One possible solution could be a cheap, whole cell vaccine. These injections expose the body to genetically modified S. pneumoniae that do not carry the capsule. Such treatment has now been tested in a small number of people during a clinical trial.

Here, Campo et al. use a technique known as panproteome array to scan samples collected during this trial, and identify which elements the body learns to recognize when it is exposed to the genetically manipulated strain of S. pneumoniae. The results show that when volunteers receive this vaccine, their body targets proteins that the capsule normally shields from the immune system. Many of these proteins are very similar across all strains of S. pneumoniae, which means that the whole cell vaccine could potentially better protect against a broad spectrum of bacteria. However, further studies are needed to assess whether this is the case, especially in infants.

PANINI: Pangenome Neighbour Identification for Bacterial Populations

The standard workhorse for genomic analysis of the evolution of bacterial populations is phylogenetic modelling of mutations in the core genome. However, a notable amount of information about evolutionary and transmission processes in diverse populations can be lost unless the accessory genome is also taken into consideration. Here, we introduce panini (Pangenome Neighbour Identification for Bacterial Populations), a computationally scalable method for identifying the neighbours for each isolate in a data set using unsupervised machine learning with stochastic neighbour embedding based on the t-SNE (t-distributed stochastic neighbour embedding) algorithm. panini is browser-based and integrates with the Microreact platform for rapid online visualization and exploration of both core and accessory genome evolutionary signals, together with relevant epidemiological, geographical, temporal and other metadata. Several case studies with single- and multi-clone pneumococcal populations are presented to demonstrate the ability to identify biologically important signals from gene content data. panini is available at http://panini.pathogen.watch and code at http://gitlab.com/cgps/panini.

Pneumococcal Vaccines: Host Interactions, Population Dynamics, and Design Principles

Streptococcus pneumoniae (the pneumococcus) is a nasopharyngeal commensal and respiratory pathogen. Most isolates express a capsule, the species-wide diversity of which has been immunologically classified into ∼100 serotypes. Capsule polysaccharides have been combined into multivalent vaccines widely used in adults, but the T cell independence of the antibody response means they are not protective in infants. Polysaccharide conjugate vaccines (PCVs) trigger a T cell–dependent response through attaching a carrier protein to capsular polysaccharides. The immune response stimulated by PCVs in infants inhibits carriage of vaccine serotypes (VTs), resulting in population-wide herd immunity. These were replaced in carriage by non-VTs. Nevertheless, PCVs drove reductions in infant pneumococcal disease, due to the lower mean invasiveness of the postvaccination bacterial population; age-varying serotype invasiveness resulted in a smaller reduction in adult disease. Alternative vaccines being tested in trials are designed to provide species-wide protection through stimulating innate and cellular immune responses, alongside antibodies to conserved antigens.

SuperDCA for genome-wide epistasis analysis

The potential for genome-wide modelling of epistasis has recently surfaced given the possibility of sequencing densely sampled populations and the emerging families of statistical interaction models. Direct coupling analysis (DCA) has previously been shown to yield valuable predictions for single protein structures, and has recently been extended to genome-wide analysis of bacteria, identifying novel interactions in the co-evolution between resistance, virulence and core genome elements. However, earlier computational DCA methods have not been scalable to enable model fitting simultaneously to 10⁴-10⁵ polymorphisms, representing the amount of core genomic variation observed in analyses of many bacterial species. Here, we introduce a novel inference method (SuperDCA) that employs a new scoring principle, efficient parallelization, optimization and filtering on phylogenetic information to achieve scalability for up to 10⁵ polymorphisms. Using two large population samples of Streptococcus pneumoniae, we demonstrate the ability of SuperDCA to make additional significant biological findings about this major human pathogen. We also show that our method can uncover signals of selection that are not detectable by genome-wide association analysis, even though our analysis does not require phenotypic measurements. SuperDCA, thus, holds considerable potential in building understanding about numerous organisms at a systems biological level.

Easy and accurate reconstruction of whole HIV genomes from short-read sequence data with shiver

Studying the evolution of viruses and their molecular epidemiology relies on accurate viral sequence data, so that small differences between similar viruses can be meaningfully interpreted. Despite its higher throughput and more detailed minority variant data, next-generation sequencing has yet to be widely adopted for HIV. The difficulty of accurately reconstructing the consensus sequence of a quasispecies from reads (short fragments of DNA) in the presence of large between- and within-host diversity, including frequent indels, may have presented a barrier. In particular, mapping (aligning) reads to a reference sequence leads to biased loss of information; this bias can distort epidemiological and evolutionary conclusions. De novo assembly avoids this bias by aligning the reads to themselves, producing a set of sequences called contigs. However contigs provide only a partial summary of the reads, misassembly may result in their having an incorrect structure, and no information is available at parts of the genome where contigs could not be assembled. To address these problems we developed the tool shiver to pre-process reads for quality and contamination, then map them to a reference tailored to the sample using corrected contigs supplemented with the user's choice of existing reference sequences. Run with two commands per sample, it can easily be used for large heterogeneous data sets. We used shiver to reconstruct the consensus sequence and minority variant information from paired-end short-read whole-genome data produced with the Illumina platform, for sixty-five existing publicly available samples and fifty new samples. We show the systematic superiority of mapping to shiver's constructed reference compared with mapping the same reads to the closest of 3,249 real references: median values of 13 bases called differently and more accurately, 0 bases called differently and less accurately, and 205 bases of missing sequence recovered. We also successfully applied shiver to whole-genome samples of Hepatitis C Virus and Respiratory Syncytial Virus. shiver is publicly available from https://github.com/ChrisHIV/shiver.

Phase-variable methylation and epigenetic regulation by type I restriction-modification systems

Epigenetic modifications in bacteria, such as DNA methylation, have been shown to affect gene regulation, thereby generating cells that are isogenic but with distinctly different phenotypes. Restriction-modification (RM) systems contain prototypic methylases that are responsible for much of bacterial DNA methylation. This review focuses on a distinctive group of type I RM loci that , through phase variation, can modify their methylation target specificity and can thereby switch bacteria between alternative patterns of DNA methylation. Phase variation occurs at the level of the target recognition domains of the hsdS (specificity) gene via reversible recombination processes acting upon multiple hsdS alleles. We describe the global distribution of such loci throughout the prokaryotic kingdom and highlight the differences in loci structure across the various bacterial species. Although RM systems are often considered simply as an evolutionary response to bacteriophages, these multi-hsdS type I systems have also shown the capacity to change bacterial phenotypes. The ability of these RM systems to allow bacteria to reversibly switch between different physiological states, combined with the existence of such loci across many species of medical and industrial importance, highlights the potential of phase-variable DNA methylation to act as a global regulatory mechanism in bacteria.

Frequency-dependent selection in vaccine-associated pneumococcal population dynamics

Many bacterial species are composed of multiple lineages distinguished by extensive variation in gene content. These often cocirculate in the same habitat, but the evolutionary and ecological processes that shape these complex populations are poorly understood. Addressing these questions is particularly important for Streptococcus pneumoniae, a nasopharyngeal commensal and respiratory pathogen, because the changes in population structure associated with the recent introduction of partial-coverage vaccines have substantially reduced pneumococcal disease. Here we show that pneumococcal lineages from multiple populations each have a distinct combination of intermediate-frequency genes. Functional analysis suggested that these loci may be subject to negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS) through interactions with other bacteria, hosts or mobile elements. Correspondingly, these genes had similar frequencies in four populations with dissimilar lineage compositions. These frequencies were maintained following substantial alterations in lineage prevalences once vaccination programmes began. Fitting a multilocus NFDS model of post-vaccine population dynamics to three genomic datasets using Approximate Bayesian Computation generated reproducible estimates of the influence of NFDS on pneumococcal evolution, the strength of which varied between loci. Simulations replicated the stable frequency of lineages unperturbed by vaccination, patterns of serotype switching and clonal replacement. This framework highlights how bacterial ecology affects the impact of clinical interventions.

Transformation Asymmetry and the Evolution of the Bacterial Accessory Genome

Bacterial transformation can insert or delete genomic islands (GIs), depending on the donor and recipient genotypes, if an homologous recombination spans the GI’s integration site and includes sufficiently long flanking homologous arms. Combining mathematical models of recombination with experiments using pneumococci found GI insertion rates declined geometrically with the GI’s size. The decrease in acquisition frequency with length (1.08×10⁻³bp⁻¹) was higher than a previous estimate of the analogous rate at which core genome recombinations terminated. Although most efficient for shorter GIs, transformation-mediated deletion frequencies did not vary consistently with GI length, with removal of 10-kb GIs ∼50% as efficient as acquisition of base substitutions. Fragments of 2 kb, typical of transformation event sizes, could drive all these deletions independent of island length. The strong asymmetry of transformation, and its capacity to efficiently remove GIs, suggests nonmobile accessory loci will decline in frequency without preservation by selection.

Pneumococcal Capsule Synthesis Locus cps as Evolutionary Hotspot with Potential to Generate Novel Serotypes by Recombination

Diversity of the polysaccharide capsule in Streptococcus pneumoniae-main surface antigen and the target of the currently used pneumococcal vaccines-constitutes a major obstacle in eliminating pneumococcal disease. Such diversity is genetically encoded by almost 100 variants of the capsule biosynthesis locus, cps. However, the evolutionary dynamics of the capsule remains not fully understood. Here, using genetic data from 4,519 bacterial isolates, we found cps to be an evolutionary hotspot with elevated substitution and recombination rates. These rates were a consequence of relaxed purifying selection and positive, diversifying selection acting at this locus, supporting the hypothesis that the capsule has an increased potential to generate novel diversity compared with the rest of the genome. Diversifying selection was particularly evident in the region of wzd/wze genes, which are known to regulate capsule expression and hence the bacterium's ability to cause disease. Using a novel, capsule-centered approach, we analyzed the evolutionary history of 12 major serogroups. Such analysis revealed their complex diversification scenarios, which were principally driven by recombination with other serogroups and other streptococci. Patterns of recombinational exchanges between serogroups could not be explained by serotype frequency alone, thus pointing to nonrandom associations between co-colonizing serotypes. Finally, we discovered a previously unobserved mosaic serotype 39X, which was confirmed to carry a viable and structurally novel capsule. Adding to previous discoveries of other mosaic capsules in densely sampled collections, these results emphasize the strong adaptive potential of the bacterium by its ability to generate novel antigenic diversity by recombination.

Phandango: an interactive viewer for bacterial population genomics

Summary

Fully exploiting the wealth of data in current bacterial population genomics datasets requires synthesizing and integrating different types of analysis across millions of base pairs in hundreds or thousands of isolates. Current approaches often use static representations of phylogenetic, epidemiological, statistical and evolutionary analysis results that are difficult to relate to one another. Phandango is an interactive application running in a web browser allowing fast exploration of large-scale population genomics datasets combining the output from multiple genomic analysis methods in an intuitive and interactive manner.

Availability and implementation

Phandango is a web application freely available for use at www.phandango.net and includes a diverse collection of datasets as examples. Source code together with a detailed wiki page is available on GitHub at https://github.com/jameshadfield/phandango.

Efficient Inference of Recent and Ancestral Recombination within Bacterial Populations

Prokaryotic evolution is affected by horizontal transfer of genetic material through recombination. Inference of an evolutionary tree of bacteria thus relies on accurate identification of the population genetic structure and recombination-derived mosaicism. Rapidly growing databases represent a challenge for computational methods to detect recombinations in bacterial genomes. We introduce a novel algorithm called fastGEAR which identifies lineages in diverse microbial alignments, and recombinations between them and from external origins. The algorithm detects both recent recombinations (affecting a few isolates) and ancestral recombinations between detected lineages (affecting entire lineages), thus providing insight into recombinations affecting deep branches of the phylogenetic tree. In simulations, fastGEAR had comparable power to detect recent recombinations and outstanding power to detect the ancestral ones, compared with state-of-the-art methods, often with a fraction of computational cost. We demonstrate the utility of the method by analyzing a collection of 616 whole-genomes of a recombinogenic pathogen Streptococcus pneumoniae, for which the method provided a high-resolution view of recombination across the genome. We examined in detail the penicillin-binding genes across the Streptococcus genus, demonstrating previously undetected genetic exchanges between different species at these three loci. Hence, fastGEAR can be readily applied to investigate mosaicism in bacterial genes across multiple species. Finally, fastGEAR correctly identified many known recombination hotspots and pointed to potential new ones. Matlab code and Linux/Windows executables are available at https://users.ics.aalto.fi/~pemartti/fastGEAR/ (last accessed February 6, 2017).

Genome-wide identification of lineage and locus specific variation associated with pneumococcal carriage duration

Streptococcus pneumoniae is a leading cause of invasive disease in infants, especially in low-income settings. Asymptomatic carriage in the nasopharynx is a prerequisite for disease, but variability in its duration is currently only understood at the serotype level. Here we developed a model to calculate the duration of carriage episodes from longitudinal swab data, and combined these results with whole genome sequence data. We estimated that pneumococcal genomic variation accounted for 63% of the phenotype variation, whereas the host traits considered here (age and previous carriage) accounted for less than 5%. We further partitioned this heritability into both lineage and locus effects, and quantified the amount attributable to the largest sources of variation in carriage duration: serotype (17%), drug-resistance (9%) and other significant locus effects (7%). A pan-genome-wide association study identified prophage sequences as being associated with decreased carriage duration independent of serotype, potentially by disruption of the competence mechanism. These findings support theoretical models of pneumococcal competition and antibiotic resistance.

Interacting networks of resistance, virulence and core machinery genes identified by genome-wide epistasis analysis

Recent advances in the scale and diversity of population genomic datasets for bacteria now provide the potential for genome-wide patterns of co-evolution to be studied at the resolution of individual bases. Here we describe a new statistical method, genomeDCA, which uses recent advances in computational structural biology to identify the polymorphic loci under the strongest co-evolutionary pressures. We apply genomeDCA to two large population data sets representing the major human pathogens Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) and Streptococcus pyogenes (group A Streptococcus). For pneumococcus we identified 5,199 putative epistatic interactions between 1,936 sites. Over three-quarters of the links were between sites within the pbp2x, pbp1a and pbp2b genes, the sequences of which are critical in determining non-susceptibility to beta-lactam antibiotics. A network-based analysis found these genes were also coupled to that encoding dihydrofolate reductase, changes to which underlie trimethoprim resistance. Distinct from these antibiotic resistance genes, a large network component of 384 protein coding sequences encompassed many genes critical in basic cellular functions, while another distinct component included genes associated with virulence. The group A Streptococcus (GAS) data set population represents a clonal population with relatively little genetic variation and a high level of linkage disequilibrium across the genome. Despite this, we were able to pinpoint two RNA pseudouridine synthases, which were each strongly linked to a separate set of loci across the chromosome, representing biologically plausible targets of co-selection. The population genomic analysis method applied here identifies statistically significantly co-evolving locus pairs, potentially arising from fitness selection interdependence reflecting underlying protein-protein interactions, or genes whose product activities contribute to the same phenotype. This discovery approach greatly enhances the future potential of epistasis analysis for systems biology, and can complement genome-wide association studies as a means of formulating hypotheses for targeted experimental work.

Epistatic interactions between polymorphisms in DNA are recognized as important drivers of evolution in numerous organisms. Study of epistasis in bacteria has been hampered by the lack of densely sampled population genomic data, suitable statistical models and inference algorithms sufficiently powered for extremely high-dimensional parameter spaces. We introduce the first model-based method for genome-wide epistasis analysis and use two of the largest available bacterial population genome data sets on Streptococcus pneumoniae (the pneumococcus) and Streptococcus pyogenes (group A Streptococcus) to demonstrate its potential for biological discovery. Our approach reveals interacting networks of resistance, virulence and core machinery genes in the pneumococcus, which highlights putative candidates for novel drug targets. We also discover a number of plausible targets of co-selection in S. pyogenes linked to RNA pseudouridine synthases. Our method significantly enhances the future potential of epistasis analysis for systems biology, and can complement genome-wide association studies as a means of formulating hypotheses for targeted experimental work.