Circulating proteins to predict COVID-19 severity

Predicting COVID-19 severity is difficult, and the biological pathways involved are not fully understood. To approach this problem, we measured 4701 circulating human protein abundances in two independent cohorts totaling 986 individuals. We then trained prediction models including protein abundances and clinical risk factors to predict COVID-19 severity in 417 subjects and tested these models in a separate cohort of 569 individuals. For severe COVID-19, a baseline model including age and sex provided an area under the receiver operator curve (AUC) of 65% in the test cohort. Selecting 92 proteins from the 4701 unique protein abundances improved the AUC to 88% in the training cohort, which remained relatively stable in the testing cohort at 86%, suggesting good generalizability. Proteins selected from different COVID-19 severity were enriched for cytokine and cytokine receptors, but more than half of the enriched pathways were not immune-related. Taken together, these findings suggest that circulating proteins measured at early stages of disease progression are reasonably accurate predictors of COVID-19 severity. Further research is needed to understand how to incorporate protein measurement into clinical care.

The dynamic changes and sex differences of 147 immune-related proteins during acute COVID-19 in 580 individuals

INTRODUCTION

Severe COVID-19 leads to important changes in circulating immune-related proteins. To date it has been difficult to understand their temporal relationship and identify cytokines that are drivers of severe COVID-19 outcomes and underlie differences in outcomes between sexes. Here, we measured 147 immune-related proteins during acute COVID-19 to investigate these questions.

METHODS

We measured circulating protein abundances using the SOMAscan nucleic acid aptamer panel in two large independent hospital-based COVID-19 cohorts in Canada and the United States. We fit generalized additive models with cubic splines from the start of symptom onset to identify protein levels over the first 14 days of infection which were different between severe cases and controls, adjusting for age and sex. Severe cases were defined as individuals with COVID-19 requiring invasive or non-invasive mechanical respiratory support.

RESULTS

580 individuals were included in the analysis. Mean subject age was 64.3 (sd 18.1), and 47% were male. Of the 147 proteins, 69 showed a significant difference between cases and controls (p < 3.4 × 10-4). Three clusters were formed by 108 highly correlated proteins that replicated in both cohorts, making it difficult to determine which proteins have a true causal effect on severe COVID-19. Six proteins showed sex differences in levels over time, of which 3 were also associated with severe COVID-19: CCL26, IL1RL2, and IL3RA, providing insights to better understand the marked differences in outcomes by sex.

CONCLUSIONS

Severe COVID-19 is associated with large changes in 69 immune-related proteins. Further, five proteins were associated with sex differences in outcomes. These results provide direct insights into immune-related proteins that are strongly influenced by severe COVID-19 infection.

Clinical Conditions that Masquerade as Urticaria

Chronic urticaria is one of the most commonly diagnosed dermatoses. Following diagnosis, correct identification and proper treatment significantly reduces disease activity, thereby improving the patient’s quality of life. However, there is an extensive differential diagnosis for chronic urticaria that, if missed, can lead to life-threatening sequelae. Many of the diseases that masquerade as urticaria are rare and often have a significant delay in diagnosis. This paper aims to fill the gap in the literature by clearly characterising the cutaneous eruptions and atypical findings in many of the most common mimickers of chronic urticaria. Conditions such as erythema marginatum seen in conjunction with hereditary angioedema, urticaria vasculitis, autoinflammatory cryopyrin-associated periodic syndromes, adult-onset Still’s disease and systemic onset juvenile arthritis, Schnitzler syndrome, erythema multiforme, and cutaneous mastocytosis will be discussed.

Anaphylaxis cases presenting to primary care paramedics in Quebec

Data on anaphylaxis cases in pre-hospital settings is limited. As part of the Cross Canada Anaphylaxis Registry (C-CARE), we assessed anaphylaxis cases managed by paramedics in Outaouais, Quebec. A software program was developed to prospectively record demographic and clinical characteristics as well as management of cases meeting the definition of the anaphylaxis. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were compared to assess factors associated with severity of reactions and epinephrine use. Among 33,788 ambulance calls of which 23,486 required transport, 104 anaphylaxis cases were identified (anaphylaxis rate of 0.31% [95%CI, 0.25%, 0.37%] among all ambulance calls and 0.44% [95%CI, 0.36%, 0.54%] among those requiring transport). The median age was 46.8 years and 41.3% were males. The common triggers included food (32.7% [95%CI, 24.0%, 42.7%]), drugs (24.0% [16.4%, 33.6%]), and venom (17.3% [10.8%, 26.2%]). Among all reactions, 37.5% (95%CI, 28.4%, 47.6%) were severe. Epinephrine was not administered in 35.6% (95%CI, 26.6%, 45.6%) of all cases. Males were more likely to have severe reactions (Odds ratio [OR]: 2.50 [95%CI, 1.03, 6.01]). Venom-induced reactions and severe anaphylaxis were more likely to be managed with epinephrine (OR: 6.9 [95%CI, 1.3, 35.3] and 4.2 [95%CI, 1.5, 12.0], respectively). This is the first prospective study evaluating anaphylaxis managed by paramedics. Anaphylaxis accounts for a substantial proportion of the cases managed by paramedics in Outaouais, Quebec and exceeds prior reports of the proportion of Quebec emergency room visits attributed to anaphylaxis. Although guidelines recommend prompt use of epinephrine for all cases of anaphylaxis, more than a third of cases did not receive epinephrine. It is crucial to develop educational programs targeting paramedics to promote the use of epinephrine in all cases of anaphylaxis regardless of the specific trigger.

In vivo acquisition of Fc gamma RII expression on polyoma virus-transformed cells derived from tumors of long latency

BALB/c 3T3 cells transformed in vitro with polyoma virus were cloned and passaged once in syngeneic mice. Resulting tumors from each clone were explanted and recultured. Expression of receptor for Fc of IgG (Fc gamma RII) in the original in vitro maintained clones and in cells derived from tumors elicited by the respective cells was measured at the protein level as well as at the mRNA level. Clones were assayed in pairs. The ancestor in vitro maintained clones [designated cultured cells (C)] were compared with cells derived from the same clones after a single passage in vivo followed by explantation and reculturing [designated cultured-tumor-cultured cells (CTC)]. C cells of any of the tested clones did not express Fc gamma RII. On the other hand, certain CTC cells were positive. The Fc gamma RII-positive cells were derived from tumors appearing after a long precancer latency period (greater than 140 days). CTC cells derived from tumors that appeared after shorter latency periods (less than 80 days) were Fc gamma RII negative. These results were obtained both by using radioimmunoassay and monoclonal antibodies against mouse Fc gamma RII as well as by Northern blot analysis using the Fc gamma RII complementary DNA probe. The involvement of macrophages as the Fc gamma RII-expressing cells in CTC cells was excluded. Fc gamma RII expression was down-regulated in CTC cells as a function of time following their explantation into culture. Fc gamma RII expression could be up-regulated in these cells and induced on C cells by maintaining the cultured cells in the presence of normal mouse serum or recombinant interferon. We also tested the expression of Fc gamma RII on CTC cells following their inoculation into syngeneic mice for a second time (CTCx2 cells). The results showed a positive correlation between Fc gamma RII expression in the inoculated ancestor CTC cells and on the CTCx2 cell progeny.

Some cellular and molecular characteristics of high and low tumorigenicity variants of polyoma-virus transformed cells

We analyzed several cellular and molecular properties of BALB/c 3T3 cellular clones transformed in vitro with polyoma virus and exhibiting a high or low tumorigenicity phenotype. We also analyzed the same clones after a single in vivo passage in syngeneic mice. This passage invariably induced and/or selected variants exhibiting a very high tumorigenicity phenotype. BALB/c mice bearing tumors induced by the inoculation of the above cells, regardless of their tumorigenicity phenotype, have a lower number of L3T4 positive splenocytes than appropriate controls. The response to Con-A of spleen cells from such mice was also suppressed. Concomitantly, an increase in Mac-1 positive splenocytes could be measured. In spite of the non-specific suppression of T cells, spleen cells from tumor-bearers showed a specific proliferative response to polyoma antigens. Molecular analysis of polyoma transformed cells showed no differences between the various cells with respect to integration of the polyoma viral genes or with respect to src, myc and fos proto-oncogenes. In vitro maintained cells and in vivo passaged cells seemed to differ, however, in the content of polyoma middle T. Whereas polyoma virus transformed cells maintained only in culture never expressed low affinity receptors for IgG (Fc gamma RII), certain in vivo passaged cells did. This expression could be measured both at the protein and the mRNA level. Those in vivo passaged cells which expressed F alpha RII gave tumors following a long latency period. Ongoing experiments will indicate whether or not Fc gamma RII expression is linked to long latency of tumor development.

Epidemiologic characteristics of scabies in the Israel Defense Force

Scabies is not a notifiable disease in most countries. As a result the data on its epidemiologic characteristics are limited. In the Israel Defense Force, compulsory reporting of individual cases has been required for years, and in this study the epidemiology of the disease is examined for the years 1968-1988. A moderate epidemic occurred between 1969 and 1973, and was followed by a return to the previous low incidence. In 1982 a massive outbreak began, and peaked from 1985-1986. From 1987 to 1988, the incidence of infestation has markedly declined. A seasonal pattern of morbidity was evident during epidemic periods only; maximum incidence occurred during the winter months. These data are compared with those described in other countries and provide a more complete picture of the epidemiology of scabies based on individually reported cases.