Machine learning-based prediction of in-hospital death for patients with takotsubo syndrome: The InterTAK-ML model

AIMS

Takotsubo syndrome (TTS) is associated with a substantial rate of adverse events. We sought to design a machine learning (ML)-based model to predict the risk of in-hospital death and to perform a clustering of TTS patients to identify different risk profiles.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A ridge logistic regression-based ML model for predicting in-hospital death was developed on 3482 TTS patients from the International Takotsubo (InterTAK) Registry, randomly split in a train and an internal validation cohort (75% and 25% of the sample size, respectively) and evaluated in an external validation cohort (1037 patients). Thirty-one clinically relevant variables were included in the prediction model. Model performance represented the primary endpoint and was assessed according to area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity. As secondary endpoint, a K-medoids clustering algorithm was designed to stratify patients into phenotypic groups based on the 10 most relevant features emerging from the main model. The overall incidence of in-hospital death was 5.2%. The InterTAK-ML model showed an AUC of 0.89 (0.85-0.92), a sensitivity of 0.85 (0.78-0.95) and a specificity of 0.76 (0.74-0.79) in the internal validation cohort and an AUC of 0.82 (0.73-0.91), a sensitivity of 0.74 (0.61-0.87) and a specificity of 0.79 (0.77-0.81) in the external cohort for in-hospital death prediction. By exploiting the 10 variables showing the highest feature importance, TTS patients were clustered into six groups associated with different risks of in-hospital death (28.8% vs. 15.5% vs. 5.4% vs. 1.0.8% vs. 0.5%) which were consistent also in the external cohort.

CONCLUSION

A ML-based approach for the identification of TTS patients at risk of adverse short-term prognosis is feasible and effective. The InterTAK-ML model showed unprecedented discriminative capability for the prediction of in-hospital death.

Takotsubo Syndrome in New Zealand: Current Knowledge and Future Challenges

Takotsubo syndrome (TS), also known as apical ballooning syndrome is a transient stress-related cardiomyopathy characterised by acute but reversible left ventricular dysfunction. The condition tends to occur in postmenopausal women after a stressful event. At presentation TS typically mimics acute myocardial infarction (MI) and the incidence of TS has been increasing worldwide. This is likely a consequence of an improved awareness of the existence of this syndrome and easier access to early echocardiography and coronary angiography. However, its aetiology remains poorly understood and it is probably still underdiagnosed. Similar to other countries. TS is being increasingly recognised in New Zealand. In this review, we discuss the demographics, clinical features and outcomes of patients with TS in New Zealand. Doing so informs us not only of the pattern of disease in New Zealand but it also provides insights into the condition itself. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Impact of Atrial Fibrillation on Outcome in Takotsubo Syndrome: Data From the International Takotsubo Registry

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major risk factor for mortality. The prevalence, clinical correlates, and prognostic impact of AF in Takotsubo syndrome (TTS) have not yet been investigated in a large patient cohort. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence, clinical correlates, and prognostic impact of AF in patients with TTS.

Methods and Results

Patients with TTS were enrolled from the International Takotsubo Registry, which is a multinational network with 26 participating centers in Europe and the United States. Patients were dichotomized according to the presence or absence of AF at the time of admission. Of 1584 patients with TTS, 112 (7.1%) had AF. The mean age was higher (P<0.001), and there were fewer women (P=0.046) in the AF than in the non‐AF group. Left ventricular ejection fraction was significantly lower (P=0.001), and cardiogenic shock was more often observed (P<0.001) in the AF group. Both in‐hospital (P<0.001) and long‐term mortality (P<0.001) were higher in the AF group. Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed that AF was independently associated with higher long‐term mortality (hazard ratio, 2.31; 95% CI, 1.50–3.55; P<0.001). Among patients with AF on admission, 42% had no known history of AF before the acute TTS event, and such patients had comparable in‐hospital and long‐term outcomes compared with those with a history of AF.

Conclusions

In patients presenting with TTS, AF on admission is significantly associated with increased in‐hospital and long‐term mortality rates. Whether antiarrhythmics and/or cardioversion are beneficial in TTS with AF should thus be tested in a future trial.

Registration

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01947621.

The effects of beta-blockers in patients with stress cardiomyopathy

Beta-blockers are often used in the treatment of patients with stress cardiomyopathy without firm evidence of benefit. We conducted a retrospective case note review investigating the effects of beta-blockers on QT interval and heart rate in patients with stress cardiomyopathy over 3 days of hospital admission. We found no evidence of effects on QT interval from beta-blocker treatment in this condition.

Coexistence and outcome of coronary artery disease in Takotsubo syndrome

AIMS

Takotsubo syndrome (TTS) is an acute heart failure syndrome, which shares many features with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Although TTS was initially described with angiographically normal coronary arteries, smaller studies recently indicated a potential coexistence of coronary artery disease (CAD) in TTS patients. This study aimed to determine the coexistence, features, and prognostic role of CAD in a large cohort of patients with TTS.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Coronary anatomy and CAD were studied in patients diagnosed with TTS. Inclusion criteria were compliance with the International Takotsubo Diagnostic Criteria for TTS, and availability of original coronary angiographies with ventriculography performed during the acute phase. Exclusion criteria were missing views, poor quality of angiography loops, and angiography without ventriculography. A total of 1016 TTS patients were studied. Of those, 23.0% had obstructive CAD, 41.2% had non-obstructive CAD, and 35.7% had angiographically normal coronary arteries. A total of 47 patients (4.6%) underwent percutaneous coronary intervention, and 3 patients had acute and 8 had chronic coronary artery occlusion concomitant with TTS, respectively. The presence of CAD was associated with increased incidence of shock, ventilation, and death from any cause. After adjusting for confounders, the presence of obstructive CAD was associated with mortality at 30 days. Takotsubo syndrome patients with obstructive CAD were at comparable risk for shock and death and nearly at twice the risk for ventilation compared to an age- and sex-matched ACS cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

Coronary artery disease frequently coexists in TTS patients, presents with the whole spectrum of coronary pathology including acute coronary occlusion, and is associated with adverse outcome.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT01947621.

Prognostic impact of acute pulmonary triggers in patients with takotsubo syndrome: new insights from the International Takotsubo Registry

AIMS

Acute pulmonary disorders are known physical triggers of takotsubo syndrome (TTS). This study aimed to investigate prevalence of acute pulmonary triggers in patients with TTS and their impact on outcomes.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Patients with TTS were enrolled from the International Takotsubo Registry and screened for triggering factors and comorbidities. Patients were categorized into three groups (acute pulmonary trigger, chronic lung disease, and no lung disease) to compare clinical characteristics and outcomes. Of the 1670 included patients with TTS, 123 (7%) were identified with an acute pulmonary trigger, and 194 (12%) had a known history of chronic lung disease. The incidence of cardiogenic shock was highest in patients with an acute pulmonary trigger compared with those with chronic lung disease or without lung disease (17% vs. 10% vs. 9%, P = 0.017). In-hospital mortality was also higher in patients with an acute pulmonary trigger than in the other two groups, although not significantly (5.7% vs. 1.5% vs. 4.2%, P = 0.13). Survival analysis demonstrated that patients with an acute pulmonary trigger had the worst long-term outcome (P = 0.002). The presence of an acute pulmonary trigger was independently associated with worse long-term mortality (hazard ratio 2.12, 95% confidence interval 1.33-3.38; P = 0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

The present study demonstrates that TTS is related to acute pulmonary triggers in 7% of all TTS patients, which accounts for 21% of patients with physical triggers. The presence of acute pulmonary trigger is associated with a severe in-hospital course and a worse long-term outcome.

Age-Related Variations in Takotsubo Syndrome

BACKGROUND

Takotsubo syndrome (TTS) occurs predominantly in post-menopausal women but is also found in younger patients.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to investigate age-related differences in TTS.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with TTS and enrolled in the International Takotsubo Registry between January 2011 and February 2017 were included in this analysis and were stratified by age (younger: ≤50 years, middle-age: 51 to 74 years, elderly: ≥75 years). Baseline characteristics, hospital course, as well as short- and long-term mortality were compared among groups.

RESULTS

Of 2,098 TTS patients, 242 (11.5%) patients were ≤50 years of age, 1,194 (56.9%) were 51 to 74 years of age, and 662 (31.6%) were ≥75 years of age. Younger patients were more often men (12.4% vs. 10.9% vs. 6.3%; p = 0.002) and had an increased prevalence of acute neurological (16.3% vs. 8.4% vs. 8.8%; p = 0.001) or psychiatric disorders (14.1% vs. 10.3% vs. 5.6%; p < 0.001) compared with middle-aged and elderly TTS patients. Furthermore, younger patients had more often cardiogenic shock (15.3% vs. 9.1% vs. 8.1%; p = 0.004) and had a numerically higher in-hospital mortality (6.6% vs. 3.6% vs. 5.1%; p = 0.07). At multivariable analysis, younger (odds ratio: 1.60; 95% confidence interval: 0.86 to 3.01; p = 0.14) and older age (odds ratio: 1.09; 95% confidence interval: 0.66 to 1.80; p = 0.75) were not independently associated with in-hospital mortality using the middle-aged group as a reference. There were no differences in 60-day mortality rates among groups.

CONCLUSIONS

A substantial proportion of TTS patients are younger than 50 years of age. TTS is associated with severe complications requiring intensive care, particularly in younger patients.

Intraventricular Thrombus Formation and Embolism in Takotsubo Syndrome

Objective:

Takotsubo syndrome (TTS) is characterized by acute left ventricular dysfunction, which can contribute to intraventricular thrombus and embolism. Still, prevalence and clinical impact of thrombus formation and embolic events on outcome of TTS patients remain unclear. This study aimed to investigate clinical features and outcomes of patients with and without intraventricular thrombus or embolism. Additionally, factors associated with thrombus formation or embolism, as well as predictors for mortality, were identified.

Approach and Results:

TTS patients enrolled in the International Takotsubo Registry at 28 centers in Australia, Europe, and the United States were dichotomized according to the occurrence/absence of intraventricular thrombus or embolism. Patients with intraventricular thrombus or embolism were defined as the ThrombEmb group. Of 1676 TTS patients, 56 (3.3%) patients developed intraventricular thrombus and/or embolism following TTS diagnosis (median time interval, 2.0 days [range, 0–38 days]). Patients in the ThrombEmb group had a different clinical profile including lower left ventricular ejection fraction, higher prevalence of the apical type, elevated levels of troponin and inflammatory markers, and higher prevalence of vascular disease. In a Firth bias-reduced penalized-likelihood logistic regression model apical type, left ventricular ejection fraction ≤30%, previous vascular disease, and a white blood cell count on admission >10×10 3 cells/μL emerged as independent predictors for thrombus formation or embolism.

Conclusions:

Intraventricular thrombus or embolism occur in 3.3% of patients in the acute phase of TTS. A simple risk score including clinical parameters associated with intraventricular thrombus formation or embolism identifies patients at increased risk.

Clinical Trial Registration:

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT01947621.

Clinical Predictors and Prognostic Impact of Recovery of Wall Motion Abnormalities in Takotsubo Syndrome: Results From the International Takotsubo Registry

Background

Left ventricular (LV) recovery in takotsubo syndrome (TTS) occurs over a wide‐ranging interval, varying from hours to weeks. We sought to investigate the clinical predictors and prognostic impact of recovery time for TTS patients.

Methods and Results

TTS patients from the International Takotsubo Registry were included in this study. Cut‐off for early LV recovery was determined to be 10 days after the acute event. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess factors associated with the absence of early recovery. In‐hospital outcomes and 1‐year mortality were compared for patients with versus without early recovery. We analyzed 406 patients with comprehensive and serial imaging data regarding time to recovery. Of these, 191 (47.0%) had early LV recovery and 215 (53.0%) demonstrated late LV improvement. Patients without early recovery were more often male (12.6% versus 5.2%; P=0.011) and presented more frequently with typical TTS (76.3% versus 67.0%, P=0.040). Cardiac and inflammatory markers were higher in patients without early recovery than in those with early recovery. Patients without early recovery showed unfavorable 1‐year outcome compared with patients with early recovery (P=0.003). On multiple logistic regression, male sex, LV ejection fraction <45%, and acute neurologic disorders were associated with the absence of early recovery.

Conclusions

TTS patients without early LV recovery have different clinical characteristics and less favorable 1‐year outcome compared with patients with early recovery. The factors associated with the absence of early recovery included male sex, reduced LV ejection fraction, and acute neurologic events.

Clinical Trial Registration

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01947621.

Comparing the variants of takotsubo syndrome: an observational study of the ECG and structural changes from a New Zealand tertiary hospital

OBJECTIVES

In takotsubo syndrome, QTc prolongation is a measure of risk of potentially fatal arrhythmia. It is not known how this risk, or derangement of other markers, differs across the echo variants of takotsubo syndrome. Therefore, we sought to explore whether apical takotsubo syndrome differs from the variants of the syndrome in more ways than just regional wall motion pattern. As the region of affected myocardium is usually larger, we hypothesised that patients with the classic apical ballooning form of takotsubo syndrome would have more severe derangement of their markers.

DESIGN

Observational study of patients gathered from a prospective database (2010-2018) and by retrospective review (2006-2009).

SETTING

The sole tertiary hospital from a New Zealand region in which case clusters of takotsubo syndrome were precipitated by large earthquakes in 2010, 2011 and 2016.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 222 patients who met a modified version of the Mayo criteria for takotsubo syndrome were included. All patients had digitally archived echocardiograms that were over-read by a second echocardiologist blinded to the clinical report.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Ejection fraction, peak troponin and QTc interval.

RESULTS

Patients with the apical form were older (p=0.011), had a lower initial left ventricular ejection fraction (35% vs 44%, p<0.0001) and a higher peak high-sensitivity troponin I (hsTnI) (p=0.01) than those with variant forms. There was no difference in the electrical abnormalities between the variants (QTc interval, heart rate, PR interval, QRS duration or T-wave axis). There was also no correlation between any of peak hsTnI, peak QTc and ejection fraction. QTc interval increased on day 2 and peaked on day 3 before falling steeply (p<0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

The variants of takotsubo syndrome differ in more ways than just their echo pattern but do not differ in their electrical abnormalities. There is a dissociation between the structural and electrical abnormalities. QTc peaks on day 3 and then falls steeply.

Broken heart syndrome -- is it a psychosomatic disorder?

OBJECTIVE

The development of somatoform illnesses is often associated with prior psychiatric illness and life stress. Broken heart syndrome has been associated with a range of stressors and we aimed to investigate if psychiatric illnesses are risk factors for developing broken heart syndrome.

METHODS

We systematically assessed for antecedent psychiatric risk factors in two groups of cases (people who developed sporadic and earthquake-related broken heart syndrome) and compared them to a control group of healthy volunteers.

RESULTS

We found that of the ten psychiatric risk factors examined, only 'neuroticism' significantly differed between participants with broken heart syndrome and healthy volunteers.

CONCLUSION

There was no association between previous psychiatric illness and development of broken heart syndrome in this study. Clinical assessment of psychiatric risk factors may not identify patients at increased risk of broken heart syndrome.

One-year follow-up of the 2011 Christchurch Earthquake stress cardiomyopathy cases

INTRODUCTION

A major earthquake struck Christchurch on 22 February 2011 causing extensive damage to the city and 185 direct fatalities. Within 4 days 21 postmenopausal women presented to Christchurch Hospital with stress cardiomyopathy. We were able to closely examine these patients in the immediate phase of presentation and at 12 months.

METHODS

Patients were prospectively identified. Clinical details at presentation were recorded including basic characteristics, symptoms, investigations, results, treatments and complications. At 12 months, telephone interviews were conducted. Patients answered a structured questionnaire to assess their cardiac and general health concerns. Consenting patients also received three psychometric questionnaires to assess psychological wellbeing.

RESULTS

The majority of patients had classic features of stress cardiomyopathy. Recovery was prompt with low complication rate. At 12 months, survival rate was 100%. Five patients had hospital readmissions early on--three of which were cardiac related. None had ongoing symptoms or stress cardiomyopathy recurrence. Seven patients had non-cardiac related medical problems. The psychometric questionnaires showed that none had a high level of health anxiety, general anxiety or depression. Four patients endorsed symptoms suggestive of borderline post-traumatic stress disorder.

CONCLUSION

The Christchurch Earthquake stress cardiomyopathy cohort has had good short-term and medium-term outcomes without significant cardiac or psychological sequelae.

Acute myocardial infarction and stress cardiomyopathy following the Christchurch earthquakes

Background

Christchurch, New Zealand, was struck by 2 major earthquakes at 4:36am on 4 September 2010, magnitude 7.1 and at 12:51pm on 22 February 2011, magnitude 6.3. Both events caused widespread destruction. Christchurch Hospital was the region's only acute care hospital. It remained functional following both earthquakes. We were able to examine the effects of the 2 earthquakes on acute cardiac presentations.

Methods

Patients admitted under Cardiology in Christchurch Hospital 3 week prior to and 5 weeks following both earthquakes were analysed, with corresponding control periods in September 2009 and February 2010. Patients were categorised based on diagnosis: ST elevation myocardial infarction, Non ST elevation myocardial infarction, stress cardiomyopathy, unstable angina, stable angina, non cardiac chest pain, arrhythmia and others.

Results

There was a significant increase in overall admissions (p<0.003), ST elevation myocardial infarction (p<0.016), and non cardiac chest pain (p<0.022) in the first 2 weeks following the early morning September earthquake. This pattern was not seen after the early afternoon February earthquake. Instead, there was a very large number of stress cardiomyopathy admissions with 21 cases (95% CI 2.6–6.4) in 4 days. There had been 6 stress cardiomyopathy cases after the first earthquake (95% CI 0.44–2.62). Statistical analysis showed this to be a significant difference between the earthquakes (p<0.05).

Conclusion

The early morning September earthquake triggered a large increase in ST elevation myocardial infarction and a few stress cardiomyopathy cases. The early afternoon February earthquake caused significantly more stress cardiomyopathy. Two major earthquakes occurring at different times of day differed in their effect on acute cardiac events.

Clopidogrel hypersensitivity syndrome with rash, fever, and neutropenia

We report a case of a severe hypersensitivity syndrome reaction to clopidogrel that resolved with dechallenge and recurred on rechallenge. The reaction included neutropenia, rash, fever, tachycardia, nausea, and vomiting. This presentation is very similar to the frequently reported hypersensitivity syndrome reactions to the structurally similar drug ticlopidine and is very similar to a case involving clopidogrel reported previously in this Journal. We could find no other reports of similar cases related to clopidogrel.

Gender-specific patterns of left ventricular and myocyte remodeling following myocardial infarction in mice deficient in the angiotensin II type 1a receptor

Left ventricular (LV) remodeling after myocardial infarction (MI) results from hypertrophy of myocytes and activation of fibroblasts induced, in part, by ligand stimulation of the ANG II type 1 receptor (AT1R). The purpose of the present study was to explore the specific role for activation of the AT 1a R subtype in post-MI remodeling and whether gender differences exist in the patterns of remodeling in wild-type and AT 1a R knockout (KO) mice. AT 1a R-KO mice and wild-type littermates underwent coronary ligation to induce MI or sham procedures; echocardiography and hemodynamic evaluation were performed 6 wk later, and LV tissue was harvested for infarct size determination, morphometric measurements, and gene expression analysis. Survival and infarct size were similar among all male and female wild-type and AT 1a R-KO mice. Hemodynamic indexes were also similar except for lower systolic blood pressure in the AT 1a R-KO mice compared with wild-type mice. Male and female wild-type and male AT 1a R-KO mice developed similar increases in LV chamber size, LV mass corrected for body weight (LV/BW), and myocyte cross-sectional area (CSA). However, female AT 1a R-KO mice demonstrated no increase in LV/BW and myocyte CSA post-MI compared with shams. Both male and female wild-type mice demonstrated higher atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP) levels after MI, with female wild types being significantly greater than males. However, male and female AT 1a R-KO mice developed no increase in ANP gene expression with MI despite an increase in LV mass and myocyte size in males. These data support that gender-specific patterns of LV and myocyte hypertrophy exist after MI in mice with a disrupted AT 1a R gene, and suggest that myocyte hypertrophy post-MI in females relies, in part, on activation of the AT 1a R. Further work is necessary to explore the potential mechanisms underlying these gender-based differences.

Use of pulse wave and color flow Doppler echocardiography in mouse models of human disease

The noninvasive assessment of cardiovascular physiology in mice is challenging because of their small size and extremely rapid heart rates. In this study, we sought to determine the feasibility and utility of pulse wave (PW) and color flow Doppler imaging techniques when applied to mouse models of cardiac remodeling. We performed transverse aortic banding, induced aortic insufficiency (AI), or sham procedures in wild-type mice. Animals were anesthetized and transthoracic echocardiography was performed, including PW and color flow Doppler imaging. In aortic banded mice, color flow Doppler imaging was used to identify flow around the aortic arch, and PW measurements were performed distal to the constriction. A high-velocity jet across the aortic constriction was detected in all 4 banded animals. Both modalities were applied to AI mice in which AI was detected in all 5 mice but in none of the 5 shams. Pulse wave and color flow Doppler imaging were also used to screen senescent mice for valve abnormalities; AI was detected in 3 of 20 and mitral regurgitation in 2 of 20. We demonstrate here that PW and color flow Doppler imaging techniques are useful in the evaluation of mouse models of cardiac remodeling. In addition, this study indicates that these modalities may be potentially useful to screen transgenic mice for valve abnormalities.