Contextualizing remote fall risk: Video data capture and implementing ethical AI

Wearable inertial measurement units (IMUs) are being used to quantify gait characteristics that are associated with increased fall risk, but the current limitation is the lack of contextual information that would clarify IMU data. Use of wearable video-based cameras would provide a comprehensive understanding of an individual's habitual fall risk, adding context to clarify abnormal IMU data. Generally, there is taboo when suggesting the use of wearable cameras to capture real-world video, clinical and patient apprehension due to ethical and privacy concerns. This perspective proposes that routine use of wearable cameras could be realized within digital medicine through AI-based computer vision models to obfuscate/blur/shade sensitive information while preserving helpful contextual information for a comprehensive patient assessment. Specifically, no person sees the raw video data to understand context, rather AI interprets the raw video data first to blur sensitive objects and uphold privacy. That may be more routinely achieved than one imagines as contemporary resources exist. Here, to showcase/display the potential an exemplar model is suggested via off-the-shelf methods to detect and blur sensitive objects (e.g., people) with an accuracy of 88%. Here, the benefit of the proposed approach includes a more comprehensive understanding of an individual's free-living fall risk (from free-living IMU-based gait) without compromising privacy. More generally, the video and AI approach could be used beyond fall risk to better inform habitual experiences and challenges across a range of clinical cohorts. Medicine is becoming more receptive to wearables as a helpful toolbox, camera-based devices should be plausible instruments.

The impact of large core and late treatment trials: An update on the modelled annual thrombectomy eligibility of UK stroke patients

INTRODUCTION

To support decisions about thrombectomy provision, we have previously estimated the annual UK population eligible for treatment as ∼10% of stroke admissions. Since then, eight further randomised trials that could alter the eligibility rate have reported in 2021-23. We updated our estimates of the eligible population from these trials and other recent studies.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

An updated decision tree describing the EVT eligible population for UK stroke admissions was produced. Decision criteria were derived from the highest level of evidence available. For nodes where no specific RCT data existed, evidence was obtained from the latest systematic review(s) or the highest quality observational data.

RESULTS

We estimate that 15,420 (approximately 15%) of admitted UK stroke patients are now eligible for thrombectomy, or 14,930 if advanced brain imaging using MRI/CT perfusion or collateral assessment were used in all patients. This is a 54% increase in our previous estimate in 2021. Over 50% of LAO strokes are now potentially eligible for thrombectomy. The increase in eligibility is principally due to a much larger cohort of later presenting and/or larger ischaemic core patients.

CONCLUSION

Most previously independent LAO stroke patients presenting within 24 h, even in the presence of a large ischaemic core on initial non-contrast CT, should be considered for thrombectomy with use of advanced brain imaging in those presenting beyond 12 h to identify salvageable penumbral brain tissue. Treatment in most patients remains critically time-dependent and our estimates should be interpreted with this in mind.

Bathing Adaptations in the Homes of Older Adults (BATH-OUT-2): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial, economic evaluation and process evaluation

BACKGROUND

The onset of disability in bathing is particularly important for older adults as it can be rapidly followed by disability in other daily activities; this may represent a judicious time point for intervention in order to improve health, well-being and associated quality of life. An important environmental and preventative intervention is housing adaptation, but there are often lengthy waiting times for statutory provision. In this randomised controlled trial (RCT), we aim to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of bathing adaptations compared to no adaptations and to explore the factors associated with routine and expedited implementation of bathing adaptations.

METHODS

BATH-OUT-2 is a multicentre, two-arm, parallel-group RCT. Adults aged 60 and over who are referred to their local authority for an accessible level access shower will be randomised, using pairwise randomisation, 1:1, to receive either an expedited provision of an accessible shower via the local authority or a usual care control waiting list. Participants will be followed up for a maximum of 12 months and will receive up to four follow-ups in this duration. The primary outcome will be the participant's physical well-being, assessed by the Physical Component Summary score of the Short Form-36 (SF-36), 4 weeks after the intervention group receives the accessible shower. The secondary outcomes include the Mental Component Summary score of the SF-36, self-reported falls, health and social care resource use, health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-5L), social care-related quality of life (Adult Social Care Outcomes Toolkit (ASCOT)), fear of falling (Short Falls Efficacy Scale), independence in bathing (Barthel Index bathing question), independence in daily activities (Barthel Index) and perceived difficulty in bathing (0-100 scale). A mixed-methods process evaluation will comprise interviews with stakeholders and a survey of local authorities with social care responsibilities in England.

DISCUSSION

The BATH-OUT-2 trial is designed so that the findings will inform future decisions regarding the provision of bathing adaptations for older adults. This trial has the potential to highlight, and then reduce, health inequalities associated with waiting times for bathing adaptations and to influence policies for older adults.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN48563324. Prospectively registered on 09/04/2021.

Costs of endovascular and open repair of thoracic aortic aneurysms

BACKGROUND

Repair of thoracic aortic aneurysms with either endovascular repair (TEVAR) or open surgical repair (OSR) represents major surgery, is costly and associated with significant complications. The aim of this study was to establish accurate costs of delivering TEVAR and OSR in a cohort of UK NHS patients suitable for open and endovascular treatment for the whole treatment pathway from admission and to discharge and 12-month follow-up.

METHODS

A prospective study of UK NHS patients from 30 NHS vascular/cardiothoracic units in England aged ≥18, with distal arch/descending thoracic aortic aneurysms (CTAA) was undertaken. A multicentre prospective cost analysis of patients (recruited March 2014-July 2018, follow-up until July 2019) undergoing TEVAR or OSR was performed. Patients deemed suitable for open or endovascular repair were included in this study. A micro-costing approach was adopted.

RESULTS

Some 115 patients having undergone TEVAR and 35 patients with OSR were identified. The mean (s.d.) cost of a TEVAR procedure was higher £26 536 (£9877) versus OSR £17 239 (£8043). Postoperative costs until discharge were lower for TEVAR £7484 (£7848) versus OSR £28 636 (£23 083). Therefore, total NHS costs from admission to discharge were lower for TEVAR £34 020 (£14 301), versus OSR £45 875 (£43 023). However, mean NHS costs for 12 months following the procedure were slightly higher for the TEVAR £5206 (£11 585) versus OSR £5039 (£11 994).

CONCLUSIONS

Surgical procedure costs were higher for TEVAR due to device costs. Total in-hospital costs were higher for OSR due to longer hospital and critical care stay. Follow-up costs over 12 months were slightly higher for TEVAR due to hospital readmissions.

Preparing for practice, the effects of repeated immersive simulation on the knowledge and self-efficacy of undergraduate nursing students: A mixed methods study

AIM

The aim of this study was to compare the effects of two immersive simulation-based education instructional designs, immersive simulation with team deliberate practice and immersive repeated standard simulation, when delivered over the same time on the knowledge and self-efficacy of nursing students.

BACKGROUND

Implementing immersive simulation-based education is not without its resource challenges, making it prohibitive for simulation educators to include it in their curricula. Subsequently, there is a need to identify instructional designs that meet these challenges.

DESIGN

A two-stage mixed methods approach was used to compare the two instructional designs.

METHODS

In stage one, data were collected using questionnaires and differences estimated using analysis of covariance. In stage two, data were collected from two focus groups and analysed using a qualitative content analysis approach. Data were collected as part of a doctoral study completed in 2019 and was analysed for this study between 2022 and 2023. The justification for this study was that the identification of effective designs for immersive simulation remains a key research priority following the increase in allowable simulation hours by the Nursing and Midwifery Council.

RESULTS

In stage one, there was no statistical significance in the participant's knowledge or self-efficacy between the models. In stage two, four themes were identified: vulnerability, development of knowledge, development of self-efficacy and preparation for placement. In contrast to stage one, participants reported that the repeated nature of both designs reinforced their knowledge base increased their self-efficacy, reduced their anxiety levels, and helped them to prepare for placement.

CONCLUSION

The results inferred that both designs had a positive impact on the participants. Overall, participants reported that it helped them prepare for placements. Based on the findings, wherever possible, repeated immersive simulation-based education designs should be used and not a standalone immersive simulation-based education scenarios. If resources allow, this could be either a repeated scenario, or if there are resource constraints to use, over the same time, immersive simulation with team deliberate practice, or a similar model. Thus, giving a potential return on investment, one that supports simulation educators making those sensitive decisions regarding the inclusion of immersive simulation with team deliberate practice in their curriculum. Further research is needed into this area to ascertain the design features that maximise this impact and support a move away from standalone scenarios to an approach that uses repetitive immersive simulation.

Sonification for Personalised Gait Intervention

Mobility challenges threaten physical independence and good quality of life. Often, mobility can be improved through gait rehabilitation and specifically the use of cueing through prescribed auditory, visual, and/or tactile cues. Each has shown use to rectify abnormal gait patterns, improving mobility. Yet, a limitation remains, i.e., long-term engagement with cueing modalities. A paradigm shift towards personalised cueing approaches, considering an individual's unique physiological condition, may bring a contemporary approach to ensure longitudinal and continuous engagement. Sonification could be a useful auditory cueing technique when integrated within personalised approaches to gait rehabilitation systems. Previously, sonification demonstrated encouraging results, notably in reducing freezing-of-gait, mitigating spatial variability, and bolstering gait consistency in people with Parkinson's disease (PD). Specifically, sonification through the manipulation of acoustic features paired with the application of advanced audio processing techniques (e.g., time-stretching) enable auditory cueing interventions to be tailored and enhanced. These methods used in conjunction optimize gait characteristics and subsequently improve mobility, enhancing the effectiveness of the intervention. The aim of this narrative review is to further understand and unlock the potential of sonification as a pivotal tool in auditory cueing for gait rehabilitation, while highlighting that continued clinical research is needed to ensure comfort and desirability of use.

Better informing everyday fall risk assessment: experimental studies with contemporary technologies

BACKGROUND

Age-related mobility issues and frailty are a major public health concern because of an increased risk of falls. Subjective assessment of fall risk in the clinic is limited, failing to account for an individual's habitual activities in the home or community. Equally, objective mobility trackers for use in the home and community lack extrinsic (ie, environmental) data capture to comprehensively inform fall risk. We propose a contemporary approach that combines artificial intelligence (AI) and video glasses to augment current methods of fall risk assessment.

METHODS

Two case studies were performed to provide a framework to assess extrinsic factors within fall risk assessment via video glasses. The first was AI-based detection of environment and terrain type. We developed convolutional neural networks (CNN) via a bespoke dataset (>145 000 images) captured from different settings (eg, offices, high streets) via free-licenced video on social media. AI automated a textual description to uphold privacy while describing the scene (eg, indoor and carpet). In the second case study, we provided video glasses to participants within a university campus (two men, 17 women; aged 21-60 years) to capture data for automatically labelling environment and objects (eg, fall hazards) via a CNN object detection algorithm. The case studies ran from Dec 5, 2022, to March 24, 2023.

FINDINGS

To date, results show promise for the efficient, and accurate AI-based approach to better inform fall risk. Each component of the framework achieved at least 75% accuracy across a range of walks (indoor and outdoor and multiple terrains) from a dataset of 6283 new images. The AI achieved a mean average precision score of 0·93 for the identification of fall risk hazards.

INTERPRETATIONS

The AI-based approach provides a contemporary means to better inform fall risk while providing an ethical means to uphold privacy. The proposed approach could have significant implications for improving overall health and quality of life, enabling ageing in place through habitual data collection with contemporary wearables to decentralise fall risk assessment. A limitation was the lack of data collection on older adults within real world, unscripted settings. However, the next phase of this research is the deployment of the AI on real-world data from a cohort of more than 40 participants within UK-based homes.

FUNDING

National Institute of Health and Care Research (NIHR) Applied Research Collaboration (ARC) North-East and North Cumbria (NENC), Faculty of Engineering and Environment at Northumbria University.

Developing and piloting an intervention to reduce colposcopy non-attendance and corresponding inequalities: a mixed-methods study

BACKGROUND

Cervical cancer incidence and mortality is higher in lower income populations. Non-attendance for colposcopy following cervical screening is higher in deprived areas and younger patients. Diagnostic delays reduce the benefits of screening, increasing risk of pre-cancerous cells being undetected or treated later. We aimed to better understand drivers of colposcopy non-attendance and pilot a targeted intervention. Women and people with a cervix (referred to as patients in this paper) access colposcopy services.

METHODS

For the service improvement audit, we collected qualitative data from Jan 24 to April 22, 2022, via telephone calls and interviews. The sample included patients who cancelled or did not attend their appointment and patients who attended their appointment. Interviews explored attendance barriers and enablers. Data were analysed thematically and reported, aligning with Consolidated Criteria for reporting Qualitative Studies' principles. The analysis informed development of a pilot intervention, implemented from Aug 8 to Oct 6, 2022, for all scheduled appointments. Patients were contacted by telephone pre-appointment as both a reminder and opportunity to identify and address attendance barriers. Barrier-specific pathways were developed to support attendance (eg, transport assistance). We compared descriptive non-attendance rates during the intervention period and pre-intervention. Audit permission was granted by Northumbria Clinical Audit Team and Caldicott approval obtained.

FINDINGS

Data were collected from 20 of the 36 patients who did not attend between Jan 24, and April 22, 2022. Further data were gathered from 88 patients cancelling appointments and four colposcopy attendees. During the audit, ethnicity and gender identity were not routinely collected. Themes identified were administrative, forgetting, anxiety, work, childcare, and transport. During the pilot, 383 (65%) of all 595 patients with an appointment were successfully contacted. The overall non-attendance in 2022 pre-telephone intervention was 10% (195 of 1736 appointments). During the intervention, non-attendance was 8% (45 of 539 appointments). Non-attendance during the intervention was 12% (10 of 87 appointments) for patients aged 25-39 years in the 20% most deprived areas was, compared with 20% (64 of 319 appointments) before the intervention.

INTERPRETATION

Identifying and addressing attendance barriers might improve non-attendance, particularly in younger and more deprived populations. This offers the prospect of improving the effectiveness of screening programmes alongside reducing inequalities in health-care access. The findings of this small-scale study are limited to NHS trust colposcopy service in the northeast of England, thus further formalised research is necessary.

FUNDING

None.

Gait retraining to reduce falls: an experimental study toward scalable and personalised use in the home

BACKGROUND

Age-related neurological conditions can result in poor mobility typified by gait abnormalities and falls, increasing risk of frailty and lowering quality of life. In the UK, the expense and inaccessibility of services to improve mobility through gait training (eg, auditory cueing) is a public health issue. Contemporary and scalable pervasive technologies for widespread public use could provide an affordable and accessible solution. We aimed to show the preliminary efficacy of a novel smartphone app that provides a personalised approach to mobility and gait assessment while facilitating gait training.

METHODS

In this experimental study, we recruited participants aged 22-46 years with no physical functional impairments (ie, no age-related neurological condition and who could walk unaided) from Northumbria University staff (Newcastle upon Tyne, UK) between April 19, and May 26. Participants wore a smartphone on their lower back. Inertial data from the smartphone were recorded during two walks, one at a self-selected pace and the other with a personalised auditory cue via headphones (+10% pace on walk 1). Smartphone app functionality enabled the measurement of clinically relevant gait characteristics via a Python-based Cloud server. We compared smartphone-based mobility or gait characteristics with a gold-standard reference (Opal Mobility Lab, APDM). We used Pearson and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC2,1) to examine agreement between the novel app and reference. The study ran from April 4 to July 21, 2023. This study received ethics approval from the Northumbria University Ethics committee, and all participants provided written informed consent.

FINDINGS

Ten adults were recruited (six women and four men; mean age 27·4 years [SD 6·2], mean weight 79·6 kg [SD 12·7], mean height 174·7 cm [SD 7·9]). High levels of agreement were found between the smartphone app and reference, quantified by Pearson (≥0·858) and ICC values (≥0·911). The personalised cueing intervention increased the mean cadence by an average of 11%, which shows good participant adherence to cueing via an app.

INTERPRETATION

Here, we propose a contemporary approach to increase the accessibility to a health-based intervention. Preliminary findings suggest the smartphone app is a suitable tool for personalised mobility or gait assessment while facilitating gait training. Use of a scalable app could be an accessible and affordable method for improving mobility to reduce falls in the home. Here, current limitations are the lack of investigation with the smartphone app for neurological gait assessment on older adults and the lack of information on participants app experience, but this will be included in future work. The pervasive use of smartphones enables a decentralised approach to overcoming issues such as frailty and logistical challenges of travelling to bespoke clinics.

FUNDING

National Institute of Health and Care Research (NIHR) Applied Research Collaboration (ARC) North-East and North Cumbria (NENC); Faculty of Engineering and Environment at Northumbria University.

Enhancing Free-Living Fall Risk Assessment: Contextualizing Mobility Based IMU Data

Fall risk assessment needs contemporary approaches based on habitual data. Currently, inertial measurement unit (IMU)-based wearables are used to inform free-living spatio-temporal gait characteristics to inform mobility assessment. Typically, a fluctuation of those characteristics will infer an increased fall risk. However, current approaches with IMUs alone remain limited, as there are no contextual data to comprehensively determine if underlying mechanistic (intrinsic) or environmental (extrinsic) factors impact mobility and, therefore, fall risk. Here, a case study is used to explore and discuss how contemporary video-based wearables could be used to supplement arising mobility-based IMU gait data to better inform habitual fall risk assessment. A single stroke survivor was recruited, and he conducted a series of mobility tasks in a lab and beyond while wearing video-based glasses and a single IMU. The latter generated topical gait characteristics that were discussed according to current research practices. Although current IMU-based approaches are beginning to provide habitual data, they remain limited. Given the plethora of extrinsic factors that may influence mobility-based gait, there is a need to corroborate IMUs with video data to comprehensively inform fall risk assessment. Use of artificial intelligence (AI)-based computer vision approaches could drastically aid the processing of video data in a timely and ethical manner. Many off-the-shelf AI tools exist to aid this current need and provide a means to automate contextual analysis to better inform mobility from IMU gait data for an individualized and contemporary approach to habitual fall risk assessment.

Investigating changes in mental health services utilisation in England and their impact on health outcomes and wellbeing during the COVID-19 pandemic: Protocol for a health data-linkage study

INTRODUCTION

Linking routinely collected health care system data records for the same individual across different services and over time has enormous potential for the NHS and its patients. The aims of this data linkage study are to quantify the changes to mental health services utilisation in responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and determine whether these changes were associated with health-related outcomes and wellbeing among people living in the most deprived communities in North East and North Cumbria, England.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will assemble a retrospective cohort of people having referred or self-referred to NHS-funded mental health services or Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) services between 23rd March 2019 and 22nd March 2020 in the most deprived areas in England. We will link together data from retrospective routinely collected healthcare data including local general practitioner (GP) practice data, Hospital Episode Statistics admitted patient care outpatients, and A&E, Community Services Data Set, Mental Health Services Data Set, and Improving Access to Psychological Therapies Data Set. We will use these linked patient-level data to 1) describe the characteristics of the cohort prior to the lockdown; 2) investigate changes to mental health services utilised between multiple time periods of the COVID-19 lockdown including out of lockdown; 3) explore the relationship between these changes and health outcomes/wellbeing and factors that confound and mediate this relationship among this cohort.

STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THIS STUDY

This study comprises a deprived population-based cohort of people having referred or self-referred to NHS-funded secondary mental health services or Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) services over an extended period of the lockdown in England (2019-2022).This study will utilise a new longitudinal data resource that will link together detailed data from a cohort of individual participants and retrospective administrative data relating to the use of primary, secondary, and community care services.The study period covers pre-lockdown, different lockdown and post-lockdown, and out of lockdown periods up to March 2022.Routinely collected administrative data contain limited contextual information and represent an underestimate of total health outcomes for these individuals.Routinely collected datasets can often been incomplete or contain missing data, which can make it difficult to accurately analyse the data and draw meaningful conclusions.Intervention and treatment for mental health conditions are not wholly captured across these data sources and may impact health outcomes.

Is fear of falling key to identifying gait and balance abnormalities in community-dwelling older adults? Protocol of a mixed-methods approach

INTRODUCTION

The ageing population poses an increasing burden to public health systems, particularly as a result of falls. Falls have been associated with poor gait and balance, as measured by commonly used clinical tests for poor gait and balance. Falls in older adults have the potential to lead to long-term issues with mobility and a fear of falling (FoF). FoF is measured by a variety of instruments; the Falls Efficacy Scale International (FES-I) version is widely used within clinical and research arenas. The ability of the FoF, as measured by the FES-I to predict gait and balance abnormalities (GABAb) has not previously been measured; this study aims to be the first to investigate this prospective relationship.

METHODS AND ANALYSES

To investigate the ability of the FES-I to predict GABAb a mixed-methods approach will be used, including quantitative, qualitative and health economics approaches. Initially the ability of the FES-I to identify poor gait and balance will be investigated, along with whether the measure is able to assess change in gait and balance in response to exercise training. The ability of an online FES-I tool to assess poor gait and balance in an alternative pre-existing online strength and balance programme will also be investigated. Interviews will be carried out to investigate participant experiences and motivations of those that are offered Age UK Strength and Balance Training, along with the views of healthcare professionals and Age UK staff involved within the process.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

NHS REC Approval has been granted (IRAS ID 314705). Study participation is voluntary; participants will be provided with all necessary information within the participant information sheet, with written consent being sought. Study findings will be disseminated through manuscripts in peer-reviewed journals, at scientific conferences and in a short report to participants and the funding body.

Primary Sjögren's syndrome: Longitudinal real-world, observational data on health-related quality of life

INTRODUCTION

Primary Sjögren's syndrome (pSS) is a chronic inflammatory condition, which presents with symptoms of dryness, pain, fatigue and often symptoms of anxiety and depression. Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is significantly reduced in pSS and the direct and indirect health costs of pSS are substantial. This study aims to determine how symptom burden, disease activity and demographics associate with HRQoL longitudinally over a median of 24-month follow-up period in pSS.

METHODS

Longitudinal EuroQoL-5 dimension (EQ-5D)-3L data from the Newcastle pSS cohort (n = 377) were evaluated using a survival analysis strategy. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards analysis were performed using baseline Newcastle Sjogren's Stratification Tool (NSST) subgroup, EULAR Sjogren's Syndrome Patient Reported Index (ESSPRI), EULAR Sjogren's Syndrome Disease Activity Index (ESSDAI), disease duration, age and sex as covariates including polypharmacy and comorbidity score, where data were available (n = 191).

RESULTS

Of the 377 pSS participants analysed in this study, 16% experienced a decline in HRQoL to a health state comparable to or worse than death. NSST subgroup and ESSPRI score had a significant relationship with time to 'EQ-5D event', whereas baseline ESSDAI, age, disease duration and sex did not.

CONCLUSION

In pSS, symptom burden and to a great extent NSST subgroup, rather than systemic disease activity, has a significant relationship with HRQoL longitudinally. Improvements in symptom burden have the potential to produce significant impacts on long-term HRQoL in pSS.

Improving emergency treatment for patients with acute stroke: the PEARS research programme, including the PASTA cluster RCT

Background

Intravenous thrombolysis and intra-arterial thrombectomy are proven emergency treatments for acute ischaemic stroke, but they require rapid delivery to selected patients within specialist services. National audit data have shown that treatment provision is suboptimal.

Objectives

The aims were to (1) determine the content, clinical effectiveness and day 90 cost-effectiveness of an enhanced paramedic assessment designed to facilitate thrombolysis delivery in hospital and (2) model thrombectomy service configuration options with optimal activity and cost-effectiveness informed by expert and public views.

Design

A mixed-methods approach was employed between 2014 and 2019. Systematic reviews examined enhanced paramedic roles and thrombectomy effectiveness. Professional and service user groups developed a thrombolysis-focused Paramedic Acute Stroke Treatment Assessment, which was evaluated in a pragmatic multicentre cluster randomised controlled trial and parallel process evaluation. Clinicians, patients, carers and the public were surveyed regarding thrombectomy service configuration. A decision tree was constructed from published data to estimate thrombectomy eligibility of the UK stroke population. A matching discrete-event simulation predicted patient benefits and financial consequences from increasing the number of centres.

Setting

The paramedic assessment trial was hosted by three regional ambulance services (in north-east England, north-west England and Wales) serving 15 hospitals.

Participants

A total of 103 health-care representatives and 20 public representatives assisted in the development of the paramedic assessment. The trial enrolled 1214 stroke patients within 4 hours of symptom onset. Thrombectomy service provision was informed by a Delphi exercise with 64 stroke specialists and neuroradiologists, and surveys of 147 patients and 105 public respondents.

Interventions

The paramedic assessment comprised additional pre-hospital information collection, structured hospital handover, practical assistance up to 15 minutes post handover, a pre-departure care checklist and clinician feedback.

Main outcome measures

The primary outcome was the proportion of patients receiving thrombolysis. Secondary outcomes included day 90 health (poor status was a modified Rankin Scale score of > 2). Economic outputs reported the number of cases treated and cost-effectiveness using quality-adjusted life-years and Great British pounds.

Data sources

National registry data from the Sentinel Stroke National Audit Programme and the Scottish Stroke Care Audit were used.

Review methods

Systematic searches of electronic bibliographies were used to identify relevant literature. Study inclusion and data extraction processes were described using Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines.

Results

The paramedic assessment trial found a clinically important but statistically non-significant reduction in thrombolysis among intervention patients, compared with standard care patients [197/500 (39.4%) vs. 319/714 (44.7%), respectively] (adjusted odds ratio 0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.61 to 1.08; p = 0.15). The rate of poor health outcomes was not significantly different, but was lower in the intervention group than in the standard care group [313/489 (64.0%) vs. 461/690 (66.8%), respectively] (adjusted odds ratio 0.86, 95% confidence interval 0.60 to 1.2; p = 0.39). There was no difference in the quality-adjusted life-years gained between the groups (0.005, 95% confidence interval –0.004 to 0.015), but total costs were significantly lower for patients in the intervention group than for those in the standard care group (–£1086, 95% confidence interval –£2236 to –£13). It has been estimated that, in the UK, 10,140–11,530 patients per year (i.e. 12% of stroke admissions) are eligible for thrombectomy. Meta-analysis of published data confirmed that thrombectomy-treated patients were significantly more likely to be functionally independent than patients receiving standard care (odds ratio 2.39, 95% confidence interval 1.88 to 3.04; n = 1841). Expert consensus and most public survey respondents favoured selective secondary transfer for accessing thrombectomy at regional neuroscience centres. The discrete-event simulation model suggested that six new English centres might generate 190 quality-adjusted life-years (95% confidence interval –6 to 399 quality-adjusted life-years) and a saving of £1,864,000 per year (95% confidence interval –£1,204,000 to £5,017,000 saving per year). The total mean thrombectomy cost up to 72 hours was £12,440, mostly attributable to the consumables. There was no significant cost difference between direct admission and secondary transfer (mean difference –£368, 95% confidence interval –£1016 to £279; p = 0.26).

Limitations

Evidence for paramedic assessment fidelity was limited and group allocation could not be masked. Thrombectomy surveys represented respondent views only. Simulation models assumed that populations were consistent with published meta-analyses, included limited parameters reflecting underlying data sets and did not consider the capital costs of setting up new services.

Conclusions

Paramedic assessment did not increase the proportion of patients receiving thrombolysis, but outcomes were consistent with improved cost-effectiveness at day 90, possibly reflecting better informed treatment decisions and/or adherence to clinical guidelines. However, the health difference was non-significant, small and short term. Approximately 12% of stroke patients are suitable for thrombectomy and widespread provision is likely to generate health and resource gains. Clinician and public views support secondary transfer to access treatment.

Future work

Further evaluation of emergency care pathways will determine whether or not enhanced paramedic assessment improves hospital guideline compliance. Validation of the simulation model post reconfiguration will improve precision and describe wider resource implications.

Trial registration

This trial is registered as ISRCTN12418919 and the systematic review protocols are registered as PROSPERO CRD42014010785 and PROSPERO CRD42015016649.

Funding

The project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Programme Grants for Applied Research programme and will be published in full in Programme Grants for Applied Research; Vol. 10, No. 4. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

The impact of a digital joint school educational programme on post-operative outcomes following lower limb arthroplasty: a retrospective comparative cohort study

Background

As part of an ongoing service improvement project, a digital ‘joint school’ (DJS) was developed to provide education and support to patients undergoing total hip (THR) and total knee (TKR) replacement surgery. The DJS allowed patients to access personalised care plans and educational resources using web-enabled devices, from being listed for surgery until 12 months post-operation. The aim of this study was to compare a cohort of patients enrolled into the DJS with a cohort of patients from the same NHS trust who received a standard ‘non-digital’ package of education and support in terms of Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQoL), functional outcomes and hospital length of stay (LoS).

Methods

A retrospective comparative cohort study of all patients undergoing primary TKR/THR at a single NHS trust between 1st Jan 2018 and 31st Dec 2019 (n = 2406) was undertaken. The DJS was offered to all patients attending the clinics of early adopting surgeons and the remaining surgeons offered their patient’s standard written and verbal information. This allowed comparison between patients that received the DJS (n = 595) and those that received standard care (n = 1811). For each patient, demographic data, LoS and patient reported outcome measures (EQ-5D-3L, Oxford hip/knee scores (OKS/OHS)) were obtained. Polynomial regressions, adjusting for age, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and pre-operative OKS/OHS or EQ-5D, were used to compare the outcomes for patients receiving DJS and those receiving standard care.

Findings

Patients that used the DJS had greater improvements in their EQ-5D, and OKS/OHS compared to patients receiving standard care for both TKR and THR (EQ-5D difference: TKR coefficient estimate (est) = 0.070 (95%CI 0.004 to 0.135); THR est = 0.114 (95%CI 0.061 to 0.166)) and OKS/OHS difference: TKR est = 5.016 (95%CI 2.211 to 7.820); THR est = 4.106 (95%CI 2.257 to 5.955)). The DJS had a statistically significant reduction on LoS for patients who underwent THR but not TKR.

Conclusion

The use of a DJS was associated with improved functional outcomes when compared to a standard ‘non-digital’ method. The improvements between pre-operative and post-operative outcomes in EQ-5D and OKS/OHS were higher for patients using the DJS. Furthermore, THR patients also had a shorter LoS.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12913-022-07989-1.

Updating estimates of the number of UK stroke patients eligible for endovascular thrombectomy: incorporating recent evidence to facilitate service planning

Introduction

Endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) is a highly effective treatment for acute ischaemic stroke due to large arterial occlusion (LAO). To support decisions about service provision, we previously estimated the annual UK population eligible for EVT as ∼10% of stroke admissions. Since then, several trials have produced evidence that could alter these figures. We update our estimates considering information from studies and trials reporting 2018–2021 on incidence, presentation time and stroke severity and consider the possible impact of predicted demographic changes in the next 10–20 years.

Patients and Methods

We produce an updated decision tree describing the EVT eligible population for UK stroke admissions. One-way sensitivity analyses (using upper and lower confidence intervals for estimates at each branch of our decision tree) were used to identify where further research evidence is necessary to increase certainty around estimates for numbers of EVT eligible patients.

Results

The updated estimate for the number of UK stroke patients eligible for EVT annually was between 10,020 (no advanced imaging in early presenting patients) and 9,580 (advanced imaging in all early presenting patients), which compared with our estimates in 2017 is a minimal reduction. One-way sensitivity analyses established that enhanced evidence about eligibility for milder strokes, ASPECTS scores and pre-stroke disability are offset by evidence regarding a lower incidence of LAO. Importantly, predicted increases in life expectancy by 2040 may increase thrombectomy need by 40%.

Discussion

Information from additional randomised trials published during 2018–2020 with updated estimates of LAO prevalence had a minimal impact on overall estimates of stroke patients eligible for EVT in the UK. Ongoing research into the benefits of EVT for patients with mild stroke or European Stroke Journal For Peer Review lower ASPECTS scores has the potential to increase the estimates of the eligible population; future need for EVT will increase with the ageing population.

Conclusion

Our updated analyses show overall numbers eligible little changed, but evidence from ongoing trials and demographic changes have the potential to increase the need for EVT significantly.

Endovascular stent grafting and open surgical replacement for chronic thoracic aortic aneurysms: a systematic review and prospective cohort study

Background

The management of chronic thoracic aortic aneurysms includes conservative management, watchful waiting, endovascular stent grafting and open surgical replacement. The Effective Treatments for Thoracic Aortic Aneurysms (ETTAA) study investigates timing and intervention choice.

Objective

To describe pre- and post-intervention management of and outcomes for chronic thoracic aortic aneurysms.

Design

A systematic review of intervention effects; a Delphi study of 360 case scenarios based on aneurysm size, location, age, operative risk and connective tissue disorders; and a prospective cohort study of growth, clinical outcomes, costs and quality of life.

Setting

Thirty NHS vascular/cardiothoracic units.

Participants

Patients aged > 17 years who had existing or new aneurysms of ≥ 4 cm in diameter in the arch, descending or thoracoabdominal aorta.

Interventions

Endovascular stent grafting and open surgical replacement.

Main outcomes

Pre-intervention aneurysm growth, pre-/post-intervention survival, clinical events, readmissions and quality of life; and descriptive statistics for costs and quality-adjusted life-years over 12 months and value of information using a propensity score-matched subsample.

Results

The review identified five comparative cohort studies (endovascular stent grafting patients, n = 3955; open surgical replacement patients, n = 21,197). Pooled short-term all-cause mortality favoured endovascular stent grafting (odds ratio 0.71, 95% confidence interval 0.51 to 0.98; no heterogeneity). Data on survival beyond 30 days were mixed. Fewer short-term complications were reported with endovascular stent grafting. The Delphi study included 20 experts (13 centres). For patients with aneurysms of ≤ 6.0 cm in diameter, watchful waiting was preferred. For patients with aneurysms of > 6.0 cm, open surgical replacement was preferred in the arch, except for elderly or high-risk patients, and in the descending aorta if patients had connective tissue disorders. Otherwise endovascular stent grafting was preferred. Between 2014 and 2018, 886 patients were recruited (watchful waiting, n = 489; conservative management, n = 112; endovascular stent grafting, n = 150; open surgical replacement, n = 135). Pre-intervention death rate was 8.6% per patient-year; 49.6% of deaths were aneurysm related. Death rates were higher for women (hazard ratio 1.79, 95% confidence interval 1.25 to 2.57; p = 0.001) and older patients (age 61–70 years: hazard ratio 2.50, 95% confidence interval 0.76 to 5.43; age 71–80 years: hazard ratio 3.49, 95% confidence interval 1.26 to 9.66; age > 80 years: hazard ratio 7.01, 95% confidence interval 2.50 to 19.62; all compared with age < 60 years, p < 0.001) and per 1-cm increase in diameter (hazard ratio 1.90, 95% confidence interval 1.65 to 2.18; p = 0.001). The results were similar for aneurysm-related deaths. Decline per year in quality of life was greater for older patients (additional change –0.013 per decade increase in age, 95% confidence interval –0.019 to –0.007; p < 0.001) and smokers (additional change for ex-smokers compared with non-smokers 0.003, 95% confidence interval –0.026 to 0.032; additional change for current smokers compared with non-smokers –0.034, 95% confidence interval –0.057 to –0.01; p = 0.004). At the time of intervention, endovascular stent grafting patients were older (age difference 7.1 years; 95% confidence interval 4.7 to 9.5 years; p < 0.001) and more likely to be smokers (75.8% vs. 66.4%; p = 0.080), have valve disease (89.9% vs. 71.6%; p < 0.0001), have chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (21.3% vs. 13.3%; p = 0.087), be at New York Heart Association stage III/IV (22.3% vs. 16.0%; p = 0.217), have lower levels of haemoglobin (difference –6.8 g/l, 95% confidence interval –11.2 to –2.4 g/l; p = 0.003) and take statins (69.3% vs. 42.2%; p < 0.0001). Ten (6.7%) endovascular stent grafting and 15 (11.1%) open surgical replacement patients died within 30 days of the procedure (p = 0.2107). One-year overall survival was 82.5% (95% confidence interval 75.2% to 87.8%) after endovascular stent grafting and 79.3% (95% confidence interval 71.1% to 85.4%) after open surgical replacement. Variables affecting survival were aneurysm site, age, New York Heart Association stage and time waiting for procedure. For endovascular stent grafting, utility decreased slightly, by –0.017 (95% confidence interval –0.062 to 0.027), in the first 6 weeks. For open surgical replacement, there was a substantial decrease of –0.160 (95% confidence interval –0.199 to –0.121; p < 0.001) up to 6 weeks after the procedure. Over 12 months endovascular stent grafting was less costly, with higher quality-adjusted life-years. Formal economic analysis was unfeasible.

Limitations

The study was limited by small numbers of patients receiving interventions and because only 53% of patients were suitable for both interventions.

Conclusions

Small (4–6 cm) aneurysms require close observation. Larger (> 6 cm) aneurysms require intervention without delay. Endovascular stent grafting and open surgical replacement were successful for carefully selected patients, but cost comparisons were unfeasible. The choice of intervention is well established, but the timing of intervention remains challenging.

Future work

Further research should include an analysis of the risk factors for growth/rupture and long-term outcomes.

Trial registration

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN04044627 and NCT02010892.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 6. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

An analysis of the COVID-19 vaccination campaigns in France, Israel, Italy and Spain and their impact on health and economic outcomes

Objectives

This paper presents an overview of the vaccination campaigns in France, Israel, Italy and Spain during the first eleven months from the first COVID-19 vaccine approval (Dec 2020 - Nov 2021). These four countries were chosen as they share similar socioeconomic, and epidemiological profiles and adopted similar vaccination strategies.

Methods

A rapid review of available primary data from each country was conducted. Data were collected from official government documents whenever possible, supplemented by information from international databases and local reports. The data were analysed via descriptive and graphical analysis to identify common patterns as well as significant divergences in the structural changes of countries’ healthcare systems during the pandemic, outcomes of the vaccination roll-out, and their impact on contextual policies.

Results

The four countries adopted similar interventions to protect and strengthen their healthcare systems. The effective coordination between the governance levels, ability to ensure a large supply of doses, and trust towards health authorities were amongst the determinants for more successful vaccination outcomes. The analysis reports a positive impact of the COVID-19 vaccines on epidemiological, political and economic outcomes. We observed some evidence of a negative association between increased vaccine coverage and fatalities and hospitalisation trends.

Conclusions

The strengths and weaknesses of COVID-19 pandemic crisis management along with the various strategies surrounding the vaccination roll-out campaigns may yield lessons for policymakers amidst such decisions, including for future pandemics.

Lay summary

This paper presents an overview of the vaccination campaigns in France, Israel, Italy and Spain during the first eleven months following approval of the first COVID-19 vaccine (Dec 2020 - Nov 2021). These four countries were chosen as they share similar demographic, socioeconomic, and epidemiological profiles, and adopted similar vaccinations strategies. Effective coordination between governance levels, ability to ensure a large supply of doses, and trust towards health authorities were amongst the determinants for successful outcomes of vaccination campaigns. The strengths and weaknesses of COVID-19 pandemic crisis management, along with the various strategies surrounding the vaccination roll-out campaigns may yield lessons for policymakers amidst such decisions, including for future pandemics.

National implementation of reperfusion for acute ischaemic stroke in England: How should services be configured? A modelling study

Objectives

To guide policy when planning thrombolysis (IVT) and thrombectomy (MT) services for acute stroke in England, focussing on the choice between ‘mothership’ (direct conveyance to an MT centre) and ‘drip-and-ship’ (secondary transfer) provision and the impact of bypassing local acute stroke centres.

Design

Outcome-based modelling study.

Setting

107 acute stroke centres in England, 24 of which provide IVT and MT (IVT/MT centres) and 83 provide only IVT (IVT-only units).

Participants

242,874 emergency admissions with acute stroke over 3 years (2015–2017).

Intervention

Reperfusion delivered by drip-and-ship, mothership or ‘hybrid’ models; impact of additional travel time to directly access an IVT/MT centre by bypassing a more local IVT-only unit; effect of pre-hospital selection for large artery occlusion (LAO).

Main outcome measures

Population benefit from reperfusion, time to IVT and MT, admission numbers to IVT-only units and IVT/MT centres.

Results

Without pre-hospital selection for LAO, 94% of the population of England live in areas where the greatest clinical benefit, assuming unknown patient status, accrues from direct conveyance to an IVT/MT centre. However, this policy produces unsustainable admission numbers at these centres, with 78 out of 83 IVT-only units receiving fewer than 300 admissions per year (compared to 3 with drip-and-ship). Implementing a maximum permitted additional travel time to bypass an IVT-only unit, using a pre-hospital test for LAO, and selecting patients based on stroke onset time, all help to mitigate the destabilising effect but there is still some significant disruption to admission numbers, and improved selection of patients suitable for MT selectively reduces the number of patients who would receive IVT at IVT-only centres, challenging the sustainability of IVT expertise in IVT-only centres.

Conclusions

Implementation of reperfusion for acute stroke based solely on achieving the maximum population benefit potentially leads to destabilisation of the emergency stroke care system. Careful planning is required to create a sustainable system, and modelling may be used to help planners maximise benefit from reperfusion while creating a sustainable emergency stroke care system.

Aneurysm growth, survival, and quality of life in untreated thoracic aortic aneurysms: the effective treatments for thoracic aortic aneurysms study

Aims

To observe, describe, and evaluate management and timing of intervention for patients with untreated thoracic aortic aneurysms.

Methods and results

Prospective study of UK National Health Service (NHS) patients aged ≥18 years, with new/existing arch or descending thoracic aortic aneurysms of ≥4 cm diameter, followed up until death, intervention, withdrawal, or July 2019. Outcomes were aneurysm growth, survival, quality of life (using the EQ-5D-5L utility index), and hospital admissions. Between 2014 and 2018, 886 patients were recruited from 30 NHS vascular/cardiothoracic units. Maximum aneurysm diameter was in the descending aorta in 725 (82%) patients, growing at 0.2 cm (0.17–0.24) per year. Aneurysms of ≥4 cm in the arch increased by 0.07 cm (0.02–0.12) per year. Baseline diameter was related to age and comorbidities, and no clinical correlates of growth were found. During follow-up, 129 patients died, 64 from aneurysm-related events. Adjusting for age, sex, and New York Heart Association dyspnoea index, risk of death increased with aneurysm size at baseline [hazard ratio (HR): 1.88 (95% confidence interval: 1.64–2.16) per cm, P < 0.001] and with growth [HR: 2.02 (1.70–2.41) per cm, P < 0.001]. Hospital admissions increased with aneurysm size [relative risk: 1.21 (1.05–1.38) per cm, P = 0.008]. Quality of life decreased annually for each 10-year increase in age [–0.013 (–0.019 to –0.007), P < 0.001] and for current smoking [–0.043 (–0.064 to –0.023), P = 0.004]. Aneurysm size was not associated with change in quality of life.

Conclusion

International guidelines should consider increasing monitoring intervals to 12 months for small aneurysms and increasing intervention thresholds. Individualized decisions about surveillance/intervention should consider age, sex, size, growth, patient characteristics, and surgical risk.

Systematic review of studies investigating ventilator associated pneumonia diagnostics in intensive care

Background

Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is an important diagnosis in critical care. VAP research is complicated by the lack of agreed diagnostic criteria and reference standard test criteria. Our aim was to review which reference standard tests are used to evaluate novel index tests for suspected VAP.

Methods

We conducted a comprehensive search using electronic databases and hand reference checks. The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, CINHAL, EMBASE, and web of science were searched from 2008 until November 2018. All terms related to VAP diagnostics in the intensive treatment unit were used to conduct the search. We adopted a checklist from the critical appraisal skills programme checklist for diagnostic studies to assess the quality of the included studies.

Results

We identified 2441 records, of which 178 were selected for full-text review. Following methodological examination and quality assessment, 44 studies were included in narrative data synthesis. Thirty-two (72.7%) studies utilised a sole microbiological reference standard; the remaining 12 studies utilised a composite reference standard, nine of which included a mandatory microbiological criterion. Histopathological criteria were optional in four studies but mandatory in none.

Conclusions

Nearly all reference standards for VAP used in diagnostic test research required some microbiological confirmation of infection, with BAL culture being the most common reference standard used.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12890-021-01560-0.

To collar or not to collar. Views of pre-hospital emergency care providers on immobilisation without cervical collars: a focus group study

BACKGROUND

Spinal cord injury (SCI) is a rare event, with high numbers of patients unnecessarily immobilised with no potential benefit based on limited evidence from the 1950s and 1960s. Contemporary opinion now challenges the notion that traditional immobilisation prevents movement and protects the spine. Current literature suggests that these methods which include semi-rigid collars can potentially cause more movement of the spine and harm the patient. The purpose of this study was to explore the views and perspectives of pre-hospital care providers on immobilising patients without the use of a semi-rigid collar.

METHODS

Focus groups were used to allow individuals to discuss and comment on a new method of immobilisation which omits the semi-rigid collar and to capture the thoughts, feelings and experiences of participants. Thematic analysis of the coded transcriptions was used to identify emerging themes.

RESULTS

Three focus groups were conducted with 15 participants in each. Participants were all exposed to patients sustaining trauma within their professional roles. Six intertwined themes emerged from the analysis: communication, conflict, education/training, empowerment, risk and the patient. Woven between these themes are the complex interactions that bring together the inter-professional relationships with other emergency services and hospital staff, the patient, the public and pre-hospital care providers.

DISCUSSION

Existing immobilisation practices are being challenged, with clinicians empowered to tailor practice to meet specific patient needs. There is limited empirical evidence to support current immobilisation practices. Contemporary literature suggests current practices may potentially cause harm. New pragmatic immobilisation practices are gradually being adopted by some pre-hospital care providers.

CONCLUSION

This study explored the perspectives of pre-hospital care providers on immobilising patients without the use of a semi-rigid collar for potential SCI. The consensus of the participants supports a pragmatic approach to managing potential SCI that provides safe, high-quality patient-centred care.

Cost-effectiveness of an enhanced Paramedic Acute Stroke Treatment Assessment (PASTA) during emergency stroke care: Economic results from a pragmatic cluster randomized trial

Background

The Paramedic Acute Stroke Treatment Assessment (PASTA) trial evaluated an enhanced emergency care pathway which aimed to facilitate thrombolysis in hospital. A pre-planned health economic evaluation was included. The main results showed no statistical evidence of a difference in either thrombolysis volume (primary outcome) or 90-day dependency. However, counter-intuitive findings were observed with the intervention group showing fewer thrombolysis treatments but less dependency.

Aims

Cost-effectiveness of the PASTA intervention was examined relative to standard care.

Methods

A within trial cost-utility analysis estimated mean costs and quality-adjusted life years over 90 days’ time horizon. Costs were derived from resource utilization data for individual trial participants. Quality-adjusted life years were calculated by mapping modified Rankin scale scores to EQ-5D-3L utility tariffs. A post-hoc subgroup analysis examined cost-effectiveness when trial hospitals were divided into compliant and non-compliant with recommendations for a stroke specialist thrombolysis rota.

Results

The trial enrolled 1214 patients: 500 PASTA and 714 standard care. There was no evidence of a quality-adjusted life year difference between groups [0·007 (95% CI: −0·003 to 0·018)] but costs were lower in the PASTA group [−£1473 (95% CI: −£2736 to −£219)]. There was over 97.5% chance that the PASTA pathway would be considered cost-effective. There was no evidence of a difference in costs at seven thrombolysis rota compliant hospitals but costs at eight non-complaint hospitals costs were lower in PASTA with more dominant cost-effectiveness.

Conclusions

Analyses indicate that the PASTA pathway may be considered cost-effective, particularly if deployed in areas where stroke specialist availability is limited.

Trial Registration: ISRCTN12418919 www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN12418919

Effect of an Enhanced Paramedic Acute Stroke Treatment Assessment on Thrombolysis Delivery During Emergency Stroke Care: A Cluster Randomized Clinical Trial

Question

Can hospital stroke thrombolysis treatment rates be increased by an enhanced paramedic assessment that includes additional prehospital information collection, a structured hospital handover, practical assistance after handover, a predeparture care checklist, and clinician feedback?

Findings

In this cluster randomized clinical trial, fewer patients in the intervention group (39.4%) received thrombolysis vs those in the standard care group (44.7%), but there were fewer poor health outcomes (disability or death) after 90 days (intervention group, 64.0% vs standard care group, 66.8%). The results were not statistically significant.

Meaning

This study found that the enhanced paramedic assessment should not be used to increase thrombolysis volume but may influence the quality of treatment decisions.

Importance

Rapid thrombolysis treatment for acute ischemic stroke reduces disability among patients who are carefully selected, but service delivery is challenging.

Objective

To determine whether an enhanced Paramedic Acute Stroke Treatment Assessment (PASTA) intervention increased hospital thrombolysis rates.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This multicenter, cluster randomized clinical trial took place between December 2015 and July 2018 in 3 ambulance services and 15 hospitals. Clusters were paramedics based within ambulance stations prerandomized to PASTA or standard care. Patients attended by study paramedics were enrolled after admission if a hospital specialist confirmed a stroke and paramedic assessment started within 4 hours of onset. Allocation to PASTA or standard care reflected the attending paramedic’s randomization status.

Interventions

The PASTA intervention included additional prehospital information collection, a structured hospital handover, practical assistance up to 15 minutes after handover, a predeparture care checklist, and clinician feedback. Standard care reflected national guidelines.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Primary outcome was the proportion of patients receiving thrombolysis. Secondary outcomes included time intervals and day 90 health (with poor status defined as a modified Rankin Score >2, to represent dependency or death).

Results

A total of 11 478 patients were screened following ambulance transportation; 1391 were eligible and approached, but 177 did not consent. Of 1214 patients enrolled (mean [SD] age, 74.7 [13.2] years; 590 women [48.6%]), 500 were assessed by 242 paramedics trained in the PASTA intervention and 714 were assessed by 355 paramedics continuing with standard care. The paramedics trained in the PASTA intervention took a mean of 13.4 (95% CI, 9.4-17.4) minutes longer (P < .001) to complete patient care episodes. There was less thrombolysis among the patients in the PASTA group, but this was not significant (PASTA group, 197 of 500 patients [39.4%] vs the standard care group, 319 of 714 patients [44.7%]; adjusted odds ratio, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.61-1.08]; P = .15). Time from a paramedic on scene to thrombolysis was a mean of 8.5 minutes longer in the PASTA group (98.1 [37.6] minutes) vs the standard care group (89.4 [31.1] minutes; P = .01). Poor health outcomes did not differ significantly but occurred less often among patients in the PASTA group (313 of 489 patients [64.0%]) vs the standard care group (461 of 690 patients [66.8%]; adjusted odds ratio, 0.86 [95% CI, 0.60-1.20]; P = .39).

Conclusions and Relevance

An enhanced paramedic assessment did not facilitate thrombolysis delivery. The unexpected combination of thrombolysis and health outcomes suggests possible alternative influences on treatment decisions by the intervention, requiring further evaluation.

Trial Registration

ISRCTN Registry Identifier: ISRCTN12418919

Elective orthopaedic cancellations due to the COVID-19 pandemic: where are we now, and where are we heading?

AIMS

The primary aim is to estimate the current and potential number of patients on NHS England orthopaedic elective waiting lists by November 2020. The secondary aims are to model recovery strategies; review the deficit of hip and knee arthroplasty from National Joint Registry (NJR) data; and assess the cost of returning to pre-COVID-19 waiting list numbers.

METHODS

A model of referral, waiting list, and eventual surgery was created and calibrated using historical data from NHS England (April 2017 to March 2020) and was used to investigate the possible consequences of unmet demand resulting from fewer patients entering the treatment pathway and recovery strategies. NJR data were used to estimate the deficit of hip and knee arthroplasty by August 2020 and NHS tariff costs were used to calculate the financial burden.

RESULTS

By November 2020, the elective waiting list in England is predicted to be between 885,286 and 1,028,733. If reduced hospital capacity is factored into the model, returning to full capacity by November, the waiting list could be as large as 1.4 million. With a 30% increase in productivity, it would take 20 months if there was no hidden burden of unreferred patients, and 48 months if there was a hidden burden, to return to pre-COVID-19 waiting list numbers. By August 2020, the estimated deficits of hip and knee arthroplasties from NJR data were 18,298 (44.8%) and 16,567 (38.6%), respectively, compared to the same time period in 2019. The cost to clear this black log would be £198,811,335.

CONCLUSION

There will be up to 1.4 million patients on elective orthopaedic waiting lists in England by November 2020, approximate three-times the pre-COVID-19 average. There are various strategies for recovery to return to pre-COVID-19 waiting list numbers reliant on increasing capacity, but these have substantial cost implications. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(2):103-110.

Systematic Review of Studies Using Conjoint Analysis Techniques to Investigate Patients' Preferences Regarding Osteoarthritis Treatment

BACKGROUND

The use of conjoint analysis (CA) to elicit patients' preferences for osteoarthritis (OA) treatment has the potential to contribute to tailoring treatments and enhancing patients' compliance and adherence. This review's main aim was to identify and summarise the evidence that used conjoint analysis techniques to quantify patient preferences for OA treatments.

METHODS

A comprehensive search strategy was conducted using electronic databases and hand reference checks. Databases were searched from their inception until 10th June 2019. All OA and CA related terms were used to conduct the search. The authors reviewed the papers and used the International Society of Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) checklist to assess the quality of the included studies.

RESULTS

The search identified 534 records. Sixteen records were selected for full-text review and quality assessment and all were included in the narrative data synthesis. All included studies suggested that the severity of symptoms influenced the patients' preference for OA treatment. All included studies recognised CA as a useful method to investigate patients' preferences concerning OA treatment.

CONCLUSION

Patients preference for OA treatment is driven by the severity of patients' symptoms and the desire to avoid treatment side effects and CA is a useful tool to investigate patients' preferences for OA treatment.

Patients' Preferences Regarding Osteoarthritis Medications: An Adaptive Choice-Based Conjoint Analysis Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Osteoarthritis (OA) patients consider ranges of harms and benefits offered by alternative pharmaceutical treatments. Choice-based experiments provide a mechanism to value outcomes, but they can pose a significant burden on respondents. Thus, the number of attributes studied is typically artificially restricted. We used an adaptive choice-based conjoint (ACBC) method that allows the inclusion of more attributes affecting patients' preferences regarding non-invasive pharmaceutical treatment for OA than traditional choice-based technique to better understand the trade-offs that OA patients consider, without increasing respondents' burden.

METHODS

After consulting with OA patients and public involvement (PPI) group, we constructed an online ACBC survey consisting of 9 attributes and a total of 31 levels (two benefits, four harms and three concerning the availability and modality of treatment). A cohort of patients with a diagnosis of OA and reporting joint pain within the last 12 months were recruited.

RESULTS

Our study (n 43) showed that the most important factor in choosing OA medication was the risk of heart attacks and strokes (19.5%), followed by the risk of addiction (18.4%), risk of kidney and liver side effects (17.5%), risk stomach side effects (14.6%), availability (11.6%), frequency of use (5.3%), pain reduction (5%), way of taking medication (4.6%) and mobility improvement (3.5%).

CONCLUSION

ACBC provides a mechanism for understanding patient preferences that address the limitations of traditional choice-based experiments. For OA patients, avoidance of the risk of side effects were the most affecting medication choices, and reductions in pain and mobility were the least. Clinicians discussing options for medication with OA patients should discuss the potential trade-offs in terms of risks and benefits.

An analysis of the policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic in France, Belgium, and Canada

OBJECTIVES

This paper presents an overview and comparative analysis of the epidemiological situation and the policy responses in France, Belgium, and Canada during the early stages of the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic (Feb.-Aug. 2020). These three countries are compared because they represent a spectrum of different governance structures while also being OECD nations that are similar in many other respects.

METHODS

A rapid review of primary data from the three countries was conducted. Data was collected from official government documents whenever possible, supplemented by information from international databases and local media reports. The data was then analysed to identify common patterns as well as significant divergences across the three countries, especially in the areas of health policy and technology use.

RESULTS

France, Belgium and Canada faced differing epidemiological situations during the Covid-19 pandemic, and the wide variety of policy actions taken appears to be linked to existing governance and healthcare structures. The varying degrees of federalism and regional autonomy across the three countries highlight the different constraints faced by national policy-makers within different governance models.

CONCLUSIONS

The actions taken by all three countries appear to have been largely dictated by existing health system capacity, with increasing federalism associated with more fragmented strategies and less coordination across jurisdictions. However, the implications of certain policies related to economic resilience and health system capacity cannot yet be fully evaluated and may even prove to have net negative impacts into the future.

Secondary transfer of emergency stroke patients eligible for mechanical thrombectomy by air in rural England: economic evaluation and considerations

Background

Mechanical thrombectomy (MT) is a time-sensitive emergency procedure for patients who had ischaemic stroke leading to improved health outcomes. Health systems need to ensure that MT is delivered to as many patients as quickly as possible. Using decision modelling, we aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of secondary transfer by helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) compared with ground emergency medical services (GEMS) of rural patients eligible for MT in England.

Methods

The model consisted of (1) a short-run decision tree with two branches, representing secondary transfer transportation strategies and (2) a long-run Markov model for a theoretical population of rural patients with a confirmed ischaemic stroke. Strategies were compared by lifetime costs: quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), incremental cost per QALY gained and net monetary benefit. Sensitivity and scenario analyses explored uncertainty around parameter values.

Results

We used the base case of early-presenting (<6 hours to arterial puncture) patient aged 75 years who had stroke to compare HEMS and GEMS. This produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £28 027 when a 60 min reduction in travel time was assumed. Scenario analyses showed the importance of the reduction in travel time and futile transfers in lowering ICERs. For late presenting (>6 hours to arterial puncture), ground transportation is the dominant strategy.

Conclusion

Our model indicates that using HEMS to transfer patients who had stroke eligible for MT from remote hospitals in England may be cost-effective when: travel time is reduced by at least 60 min compared with GEMS, and a £30 000/QALY threshold is used for decision-making. However, several other logistic considerations may impact on the use of air transportation.

The cost of prevalent and incident cardiovascular disease in people with type 2 diabetes in Scotland: data from the Scottish Care Information-Diabetes Collaboration

AIM

To compare costs for three groups of people with type 2 diabetes, those at high risk of future cardiovascular disease, those without cardiovascular disease and those with established cardiovascular disease, and to also compare costs incurred by people with type 2 diabetes with an incident cardiovascular disease event with those who remain incident event-free over a 3-year period.

METHODS

Data about people with type 2 diabetes in Scotland were obtained from the Scottish Care Information Diabetes registry. Data linkage was used to retrieve information on healthcare utilization, care home use and deaths. Productivity effects were estimated for those of non-pensionable age. We estimated costs over 12 months (prevalent cardiovascular disease) and 3 years from incident cardiovascular disease event.

RESULTS

Mean annual cost per person with established cardiovascular disease was £6900, £3300 for a person at high risk of future cardiovascular disease, and £2500 for a person without cardiovascular disease and not at high risk. In year 1, the cost of an incident cardiovascular disease event was £16 700 compared with £2100 for people without an incident event. Over 2 years, the cumulative costs were £21 500 and £4200, and by year 3, £25 000 and £5900, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Cardiovascular disease in people with type 2 diabetes places a significant financial burden on healthcare and the wider economy. Our results emphasize the financial consequences of cardiovascular disease prevention strategies.

PP11 Defining major trauma in the hyper acute setting

Background

Pre-hospital trauma is complex and challenging, with limited clinical exposure for clinicians. In addition, there is no standardised definition for major trauma, and retrospective scores commonly quantify injury severity, such as the injury severity score. This qualitative study aimed to explore the pre-hospital perspectives of major trauma and how pre-hospital trauma care providers define major trauma.

Method

Three focus groups of 40–60 minutes duration were conducted with paramedics, ambulance technicians, police, firefighters and emergency dispatchers. Digital recordings were transcribed verbatim, coded and reviewed to identify emerging themes. Constant comparison was undertaken throughout and codes identified for qualitative thematic analysis.

Results

Three overarching themes emerged: clinician factors, patient factors and situational factors. Clinician factors highlighted issues of experience and exposure (or lack of) to major trauma and its relationship to clinical concern, communication issues and the complex nature of pre-hospital trauma. Patient factors identified deranged physiology, actual injuries, life changing trauma, potential need for surgical intervention and rehabilitation as defining major trauma. These variables are often complicated by the extremities of age as well as previous medical history and medications. The situational factors identified that every traumatic encounter is unique, requiring bespoke management where high and low energy mechanisms of injury should be considered.

Conclusion

Based on the analysis of the focus groups, a working pre-hospital definition is: Any injury (or injuries) that have the potential to be life-threatening or life-changing, including those sustained from low energy mechanisms in people rendered vulnerable by extremes of age, comorbidities or frailty, resulting in significant physiological compromise (haemodynamic instability, reduced consciousness, respiratory compromise) and/or significant anatomical abnormality that may require immediate intervention.

Improving economic evaluations in stroke: A report from the ESO Health Economics Working Group

INTRODUCTION

Approaches to economic evaluations of stroke therapies are varied and inconsistently described. An objective of the European Stroke Organisation (ESO) Health Economics Working Group is to standardise and improve the economic evaluations of interventions for stroke.

METHODS

The ESO Health Economics Working Group and additional experts were contacted to develop a protocol and a guidance document for data collection for economic evaluations of stroke therapies. A modified Delphi approach, including a survey and consensus processes, was used to agree on content. We also asked the participants about resources that could be shared to improve economic evaluations of interventions for stroke.

RESULTS

Of 28 experts invited, 16 (57%) completed the initial survey, with representation from universities, government, and industry. More than half of the survey respondents endorsed 13 specific items to include in a standard resource use questionnaire. Preferred functional/quality of life outcome measures to use for economic evaluations were the modified Rankin Scale (14 respondents, 88%) and the EQ-5D instrument (11 respondents, 69%). Of the 12 respondents who had access to data used in economic evaluations, 10 (83%) indicated a willingness to share data. A protocol template and a guidance document for data collection were developed and are presented in this article.

CONCLUSION

The protocol template and guidance document for data collection will support a more standardised and transparent approach for economic evaluations of stroke care.

An extended stroke rehabilitation service for people who have had a stroke: the EXTRAS RCT

BACKGROUND

There is limited evidence about the effectiveness of rehabilitation in meeting the longer-term needs of stroke patients and their carers.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an extended stroke rehabilitation service (EXTRAS).

DESIGN

A pragmatic, observer-blind, parallel-group, multicentre randomised controlled trial with embedded health economic and process evaluations. Participants were randomised (1 : 1) to receive EXTRAS or usual care.

SETTING

Nineteen NHS study centres.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with a new stroke who received early supported discharge and their informal carers.

INTERVENTIONS

Five EXTRAS reviews provided by an early supported discharge team member between 1 and 18 months post early supported discharge, usually over the telephone. Reviewers assessed rehabilitation needs, with goal-setting and action-planning. Control treatment was usual care post early supported discharge.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was performance in extended activities of daily living (Nottingham Extended Activities of Daily Living Scale) at 24 months post randomisation. Secondary outcomes at 12 and 24 months included patient mood (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale), health status (Oxford Handicap Scale), experience of services and adverse events. For carers, secondary outcomes included carers' strain (Caregiver Strain Index) and experience of services. Cost-effectiveness was estimated using resource utilisation costs (adaptation of the Client Service Receipt Inventory) and quality-adjusted life-years.

RESULTS

A total of 573 patients (EXTRAS, n = 285; usual care, n = 288) with 194 carers (EXTRAS, n = 103; usual care, n = 91) were randomised. Mean 24-month Nottingham Extended Activities of Daily Living Scale scores were 40.0 (standard deviation 18.1) for EXTRAS (n = 219) and 37.2 (standard deviation 18.5) for usual care (n = 231), giving an adjusted mean difference of 1.8 (95% confidence interval -0.7 to 4.2). The mean intervention group Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale scores were not significantly different at 12 and 24 months. The intervention did not improve patient health status or carer strain. EXTRAS patients and carers reported greater satisfaction with some aspects of care. The mean cost of resource utilisation was lower in the intervention group: -£311 (95% confidence interval -£3292 to £2787), with a 68% chance of EXTRAS being cost-saving. EXTRAS was associated with 0.07 (95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.12) additional quality-adjusted life-years. At current conventional thresholds of willingness to pay for a quality-adjusted life-year, there is a 90% chance that EXTRAS is cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

EXTRAS did not improve stroke survivors' performance in extended activities of daily living but did improve their overall satisfaction with services. Given the impact on costs and quality-adjusted life-years, there is a high chance that EXTRAS could be considered cost-effective.

FUTURE WORK

Further research is required to identify whether or not community-based interventions can improve performance of extended activities of daily living, and to understand the improvements in health-related quality of life and costs seen by provision of intermittent longer-term specialist review.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN45203373.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 24. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Effects of the Simulation Using Team Deliberate Practice (Sim-TDP) model on the performance of undergraduate nursing students

Background

The use of simulation has grown in prominence, but variation in the quality of provision has been reported, leading to calls for further research into the most effective instructional designs. Simulation Using Team Deliberate Practice (Sim-TDP) was developed in response. It combines the principles of simulation with deliberate practice, therefore, providing participants with opportunities to work towards well-defined goals, rehearse skills and reflect on performance whilst receiving expert feedback. This study aimed to compare the effects of Sim-TDP, versus the use of traditional simulation, on the performance of second year adult nursing students.

Methods

Using a longitudinal quasi-experimental design, the effects of the two approaches were compared over a 1-year period. Sixteen groups, each containing an average of six participants, were randomised into an intervention arm (n=8) or comparison arm (n=8). Data collection took place at 3 monthly intervals, at which point the performance and time to complete the scenario objectives/tasks, as a team, were recorded and analysed using a validated performance tool.

Results

The independent t-tests, comparing the performance of the groups, did not demonstrate any notable differences during the three phases. However, in phase 1, the independent t-tests suggested an improvement in the Sim-TDP participants’ time spent on task (t(14) = 5.12, p<0.001), with a mean difference of 7.22 min. The mixed analysis of covariance inferred that the use of the Sim-TDP led to an improvement, over time, in the participants’ performance (F(1, 5) = 12.91, p=0.016), and thus, an association between Sim-TDP and the enhanced performance of participants.

Conclusion

The results suggest that Sim-TDP, potentially, optimised participant performance, while maximising the use of Simulation-based education (SBE) resources, such as simulation facilities and equipment. The model could be of practical benefit to nurse educators wishing to integrate SBE into their programmes.

The cost of providing mechanical thrombectomy in the UK NHS: a micro-costing study

INTRODUCTION

The clinical efficacy and cost-effectiveness of mechanical thrombectomy (MT) for the treatment of large vessel occlusion stroke is well established, but uncertainty remains around the true cost of delivering this treatment within the NHS. The aim of this study was to establish the cost of providing MT within the hyperacute phase of care and to explore differences in resources used and costs across different neuroscience centres in the UK.

METHOD

This was a multicentre retrospective study using micro-costing methods to enable a precise assessment of the costs of MT from an NHS perspective. Data on resources used and their costs were collected from five UK neuroscience centres between 2015 and 2018.

RESULTS

Data were collected on 310 patients with acute ischaemic stroke treated with MT. The mean total cost of providing MT and inpatient care within 24 hours was £10,846 (95% confidence interval (CI) 10,527-11,165) per patient. The main driver of cost was MT procedure costs, accounting for 73% (£7,943; 95% CI 7,649-8,237) of the total 24-hour cost. Costs were higher for patients treated under general anaesthesia (£11,048; standard deviation (SD) 2,654) than for local anaesthesia (£9,978; SD 2,654), mean difference £1,070 (95% CI 381-1,759; p=0.003); admission to an intensive care unit (ICU; £12,212; SD 3,028) against for admission elsewhere (£10,179; SD 2,415), mean difference £2,032 (95% CI 1,345-2,719; p<0001).The mean cost within 72 hours was £12,440 (95% CI 10,628-14,252). The total costs for the duration of inpatient care before discharge from a thrombectomy centre was £14,362 (95% CI 13,603-15,122).

CONCLUSIONS

Major factors contributing to costs of MT for stroke include consumables and staff for intervention, use of general anaesthesia and ICU admissions. These findings can inform the reimbursement, provision and strategic planning of stroke services and aid future economic evaluations.

87 Effects of Community Falls Prevention Service Closure on ICD-10 Coded Fracture Rates in Older People: An Interrupted Time Series Approach

Introduction

Guidelines on falls prevention recommend case ascertainment based on opportunistic case ascertainment and referral in those who have fallen. In October 2009 we implemented a novel multidisciplinary, multifactorial falls, syncope and dizziness service with enhanced case-ascertainment through proactive, primary care-based screening for associated risk factors. In addition to comprehensive geriatric assessment, 25% of 4032 service participants underwent strength and balance training. The baseline outcomes have been previously reported.1 Funding was withdrawn, and the service closed on 31/01/2014. We examined the effect of service-closure on fractures presenting to secondary care with and without the service running.

Methods

An interrupted time series method was used. ICD-10 coded fracture numbers attending secondary care were determined (Hospital Episode Statistics from 01/02/2012-31/05/2017) for all North Tyneside residents ≥60 years at the time of service closure, including 25-months with, and 40-months without, service provision.

Results

There was a 0.9% (p=0.018) monthly reduction in falls over 25-months of service provision which increased during the winter months of a 9.8% (p=0.015) increase. In the month following the service closure there was an initial increase in fractures of 8.5% (p=0.231), followed by an increase in the monthly time trend of 1% (p=0.018). This resulted in a post-service monthly increase in fractures of 0.1%, an estimated extra 625 fractures over the 40-month post-service cessation period. At an average £8600 per fracture, the estimated cost may have been £5,375,000.

Conclusions

In this naturalistic experiment, following an initial drop in fractures, disinvestment in this service resulted in a rise in elders’ fractures presenting to secondary care. The closure of the service may have had a large unintended cost, averaging £1.5 million annually, versus annual running costs of £220,000. Further research is needed to control for patient-level characteristics and to establish the cost-effectiveness of the service.

74 Effects of Community Falls Prevention Service Closure on Ischaemic Heart Disease Attendances in Secondary Care: An Interrupted Time Series Approach

Background

In 2009 we implemented a novel multidisciplinary, multifactorial falls, syncope and dizziness service model utilising proactive, primary care-based screening (≥60 years). Participants underwent comprehensive geriatric assessment, while 25% of the 4032 service participants had exercise training. All had additional lifestyle advice on exercise, alcohol intake, weight loss and smoking cessation. The preliminary outcomes of this approach have been previously reported, with occult atrial fibrillation, murmurs, ECG-evident ischaemic heart disease (IHD) etc reported to GPs for further action.1 Funding was withdrawn and the service closed on 31/01/2014. We examined IHD secondary care attendances with and without service provision.

Methods

Patients: North Tyneside residents ≥60 years at time of closure of the service in January 2014, who were presented acutely to secondary care with IHD using an interrupted time series method. ICD-10 coded IHD numbers were determined (Hospital Episode Statistics from 01/02/2012[date of a change in coding compared to service commencement in 2009] until 31/05/2017) including 25-months with, and 40-months without, service provision.

Results

The Table summarises the change in IHD +/- service provision; there was a significant reduction in IHD non-elective admissions during both time series’, but the reduction was significantly lower without service provision.

In addition, immediately following the service closure there was an initial increase in IHD complications of 18.4% (p=0.059) followed by an increase in the time trend of 2.7% (p=0.029), resulting in a 0.6% post-service monthly reduction in IHD complications.

Conclusions

Disinvestment in this service resulted in a slowdown in the underlying reduction of IHD diagnoses in secondary care. However, further research is needed to control for patient-level characteristics, the economic impact and to look at the effect of the service on other cardiovascular diseases.

Reference

1. Parry SW. JAGS 2016; 64 (11):2368–2373.

Impact of emergency care centralisation on mortality and efficiency: a retrospective service evaluation

Objective

Evidence favours centralisation of emergency care for specific conditions, but it remains unclear whether broader implementation improves outcomes and efficiency. Routine healthcare data examined consolidation of three district general hospitals with mixed medical admission units (MAU) into a single high-volume site directing patients from the ED to specialty wards with consultant presence from 08:00 to 20:00.

Methods

Consecutive unscheduled adult index admissions from matching postcode areas were identified retrospectively in Hospital Episode Statistics over a 3-year period: precentralisation baseline (from 16 June 2014 to 15 June 2015; n=18 586), year 1 postcentralisation (from 16 June 2015 to 15 June 2016; n=16 126) and year 2 postcentralisation (from 16 June 2016 to 15 June 2017; n=17 727). Logistic regression including key demographic covariates compared baseline with year 1 and year 2 probabilities of mortality and daily discharge until day 60 after admission and readmission within 60 days of discharge.

Results

Relative to baseline, admission postcentralisation was associated with favourable OR (95% CI) for day 60 mortality (year 1: 0.95 (0.88 to 1.02), p=0.18; year 2: 0.94 (0.91 to 0.97), p<0.01), mainly among patients aged 80+ years (year 1: 0.88 (0.79 to 0.97); year 2: 0.91 (0.87 to 0.96)). The probability of being discharged alive on any day since admission increased (year 1: 1.07 (1.04 to 1.10), p<0.01; year 2: 1.04 (1.02 to 1.05), p<0.01) and the risk of readmission decreased (year 1: 0.90 (0.87 to 0.94), p<0.01; year 2: 0.92 (0.90 to 0.94), p<0.01).

Conclusion

A centralised site providing early specialist care was associated with improved short-term outcomes and efficiency relative to lower volume ED admitting to MAU, particularly for older patients.

Schrödinger's pipeline and the outsourcing of pharmaceutical innovation

In the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008) cheaper, softer money flooded the worldwide markets. Faced with historically low capital costs, the pharmaceutical industry chose to pay down debt through share buybacks rather than invest in research and development (R&D). Instead, the industry explored new R&D models for open innovation, such as open-sourcing, crowd-sourcing, public-private partnerships, innovation centres, Science Parks, and the wholesale outsourcing of pharmaceutical R&D. However, economic Greater Fool Theory suggests that outsourcing R&D was never likely to increase innovation. Ten years on, the period of cheaper and softer money is coming to an end. So how are things looking? And what happens next?

Rapid evaluation for health and social care innovations: challenges for "quick wins" using interrupted time series

Background

Rapid evaluation was at the heart of National Health Service England’s evaluation strategy of the new models of care vanguard programme. This was to facilitate the scale and spread of successful models of care throughout the health & social care system. The aim of this paper is to compare the findings of the two evaluations of the Enhanced health in Care Homes (EHCH) vanguard in Gateshead, one using a smaller data set for rapidity and one using a larger longitudinal data set and to investigate the implications of the use of rapid evaluations using interrupted time series (ITS) methods.

Methods

A quasi-experimental design study in the form of an ITS was used to evaluate the impact of the vanguard on secondary care use. Two different models are presented differing by timeframes only. The short-term model consisted of data for 11 months data pre and 20 months post vanguard. The long-term model consisted of data for 23 months pre and 34 months post vanguard.

Results

The cost consequences, including the cost of running the EHCH vanguard, were estimated using both a single tariff non-elective admissions methodology and a tariff per bed day methodology. The short-term model estimated a monthly cost increase of £73,408 using a single tariff methodology. When using a tariff per bed day, there was an estimated monthly cost increase of £14,315.

The long-term model had, using a single tariff for non-elective admissions, an overall cost increase of £7576 per month. However, when using a tariff per bed-days, there was an estimated monthly cost reduction of £57,168.

Conclusions

Although it is acknowledged that there is often a need for rapid evaluations in order to identify “quick wins” and to expedite learning within health and social care systems, we conclude that this may not be appropriate for quasi-experimental designs estimating effect using ITS for complex interventions. Our analyses suggests that care must be taken when conducting and interpreting the results of short-term evaluations using ITS methods, as they may produce misleading results and may lead to a misallocation of resources.

Defining major trauma: a pre-hospital perspective using focus groups

Background:

Pre-hospital trauma is complex and challenging, with limited clinical exposure for clinicians. In addition, there is no standardised definition for major trauma, and retrospective scores commonly quantify injury severity, such as the injury severity score. This qualitative study aimed to explore the pre-hospital perspectives of major trauma and how pre-hospital trauma care providers define major trauma.

Method:

Three focus groups of 40–60 minutes’ duration were conducted with paramedics, ambulance technicians, police, firefighters and emergency dispatchers. Digital recordings were transcribed verbatim, coded and reviewed to identify emerging themes. Constant comparison was undertaken throughout and codes were identified for qualitative thematic analysis.

Results:

Three overarching themes emerged: clinician factors, patient factors and situational factors. Clinician factors highlighted issues of experience and exposure (or lack of) to major trauma and its relationship to clinical concern, communication issues and the complex nature of pre-hospital trauma. Patient factors identified deranged physiology, actual injuries, life changing trauma, potential need for surgical intervention and rehabilitation as defining major trauma. These variables are often complicated by the extremities of age as well as previous medical history and medications. The situational factors identified that every traumatic encounter is unique, requiring bespoke management where high and low energy mechanisms of injury should be considered.

Conclusion:

Based on the analysis of the focus groups, a working pre-hospital definition is: Any injury (or injuries) that have the potential to be life-threatening or life-changing, including those sustained from low energy mechanisms in people rendered vulnerable by extremes of age, comorbidities or frailty, resulting in significant physiological compromise (haemodynamic instability, reduced consciousness, respiratory compromise) and/or significant anatomical abnormality that may require immediate intervention.

Estimating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of establishing additional endovascular Thrombectomy stroke Centres in England: a discrete event simulation

BACKGROUND

We have previously modelled that the optimal number of comprehensive stroke centres (CSC) providing endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) in England would be 30 (net 6 new centres). We now estimate the relative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of increasing the number of centres from 24 to 30.

METHODS

We constructed a discrete event simulation (DES) to estimate the effectiveness and lifetime cost-effectiveness (from a payer perspective) using 1 year's incidence of stroke in England. 2000 iterations of the simulation were performed comparing baseline 24 centres to 30.

RESULTS

Of 80,800 patients admitted to hospital with acute stroke/year, 21,740 would be affected by the service reconfiguration. The median time to treatment for eligible early presenters (< 270 min since onset) would reduce from 195 (IQR 155-249) to 165 (IQR 105-224) minutes. Our model predicts reconfiguration would mean an additional 33 independent patients (modified Rankin scale [mRS] 0-1) and 30 fewer dependent/dead patients (mRS 3-6) per year. The net addition of 6 centres generates 190 QALYs (95%CI - 6 to 399) and results in net savings to the healthcare system of £1,864,000/year (95% CI -1,204,000 to £5,017,000). The estimated budget impact was a saving of £980,000 in year 1 and £7.07 million in years 2 to 5.

CONCLUSION

Changes in acute stroke service configuration will produce clinical and cost benefits when the time taken for patients to receive treatment is reduced. Benefits are highly likely to be cost saving over 5 years before any capital investment above £8 million is required.

Evaluation of an Extended Stroke Rehabilitation Service (EXTRAS): A Randomized Controlled Trial and Economic Analysis

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

There is limited evidence to guide rehabilitation to meet the longer term needs of stroke survivors. The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an extended stroke rehabilitation service (EXTRAS) provided following early supported discharge were determined.

Symptom-based stratification of patients with primary Sjögren's syndrome: multi-dimensional characterisation of international observational cohorts and reanalyses of randomised clinical trials

BACKGROUND

Heterogeneity is a major obstacle to developing effective treatments for patients with primary Sjögren's syndrome. We aimed to develop a robust method for stratification, exploiting heterogeneity in patient-reported symptoms, and to relate these differences to pathobiology and therapeutic response.

METHODS

We did hierarchical cluster analysis using five common symptoms associated with primary Sjögren's syndrome (pain, fatigue, dryness, anxiety, and depression), followed by multinomial logistic regression to identify subgroups in the UK Primary Sjögren's Syndrome Registry (UKPSSR). We assessed clinical and biological differences between these subgroups, including transcriptional differences in peripheral blood. Patients from two independent validation cohorts in Norway and France were used to confirm patient stratification. Data from two phase 3 clinical trials were similarly stratified to assess the differences between subgroups in treatment response to hydroxychloroquine and rituximab.

FINDINGS

In the UKPSSR cohort (n=608), we identified four subgroups: Low symptom burden (LSB), high symptom burden (HSB), dryness dominant with fatigue (DDF), and pain dominant with fatigue (PDF). Significant differences in peripheral blood lymphocyte counts, anti-SSA and anti-SSB antibody positivity, as well as serum IgG, κ-free light chain, β2-microglobulin, and CXCL13 concentrations were observed between these subgroups, along with differentially expressed transcriptomic modules in peripheral blood. Similar findings were observed in the independent validation cohorts (n=396). Reanalysis of trial data stratifying patients into these subgroups suggested a treatment effect with hydroxychloroquine in the HSB subgroup and with rituximab in the DDF subgroup compared with placebo.

INTERPRETATION

Stratification on the basis of patient-reported symptoms of patients with primary Sjögren's syndrome revealed distinct pathobiological endotypes with distinct responses to immunomodulatory treatments. Our data have important implications for clinical management, trial design, and therapeutic development. Similar stratification approaches might be useful for patients with other chronic immune-mediated diseases.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, British Sjogren's Syndrome Association, French Ministry of Health, Arthritis Research UK, Foundation for Research in Rheumatology. VIDEO ABSTRACT.

Between a ROC and a hard place: Teaching prevalence plots to understand real world biomarker performance in the clinic

The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) of the ROC curve are widely used in discovery to compare the performance of diagnostic and prognostic assays. The ROC curve has the advantage that it is independent of disease prevalence. However, in this note, we remind scientists and clinicians that the performance of an assay upon translation to the clinic is critically dependent upon that very same prevalence. Without an understanding of prevalence in the test population, even robust bioassays with excellent ROC characteristics may perform poorly in the clinic. While the exact prevalence in the target population is not always known, simple plots of candidate assay performance as a function of prevalence rate give a better understanding of the likely real-world performance and a greater understanding of the likely impact of variation in that prevalence on translation to the clinic.

Pain and depression are associated with both physical and mental fatigue independently of comorbidities and medications in primary Sjögren's syndrome

Objectives

To report on fatigue in patients from the United Kingdom primary Sjögren's syndrome (pSS) registry identifying factors associated with fatigue and robust to assignable causes such as comorbidities and medications associated with drowsiness.

Methods

From our cohort (n = 608), we identified those with comorbidities associated with fatigue, and those taking medications associated with drowsiness. We constructed dummy variables, permitting the contribution of these potentially assignable causes of fatigue to be assessed. Using multiple regression analysis, we modelled the relationship between Profile of Fatigue and Discomfort physical and mental fatigue scores and potentially related variables.

Results

Pain, depression and daytime sleepiness scores were closely associated with both physical and mental fatigue (all p ≤ 0.0001). In addition, dryness was strongly associated with physical fatigue (p ≤ 0.0001). These effects were observed even after adjustment for comorbidities associated with fatigue or medications associated with drowsiness.

Conclusions

These findings support further research and clinical interventions targeting pain, dryness, depression and sleep to improve fatigue in patients with pSS.This finding is robust to both the effect of other comorbidities associated with fatigue and medications associated with drowsiness.

Paramedic Acute Stroke Treatment Assessment (PASTA): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

Background

Despite evidence from clinical trials that intravenous (IV) thrombolysis is a cost-effective treatment for selected acute ischaemic stroke patients, there remain large variations in the rate of IV thrombolysis delivery between stroke services. This study is evaluating whether an enhanced care pathway delivered by paramedics (the Paramedic Acute Stroke Treatment Assessment (PASTA)) could increase the number of patients who receive IV thrombolysis treatment.

Methods

Study design: Cluster randomised trial with economic analysis and parallel process evaluation.

Setting: National Health Service ambulance services, emergency departments and hyper-acute stroke units within three geographical regions of England and Wales.

Randomisation: Ambulance stations within each region are the units of randomisation. According to station allocation, paramedics based at a station deliver the PASTA pathway (intervention) or continue with standard stroke care (control).

Study intervention: The PASTA pathway includes structured pre-hospital information collection, prompted pre-notification, structured handover of information in hospital and assistance with simple tasks during the initial hospital assessment. Study-trained intervention group paramedics deliver this pathway to adults within 4 h of suspected stroke onset.

Study control: Standard stroke care according to national and local guidelines for the pre-hospital and hospital assessment of suspected stroke.

Participants: Participants enrolled in the study are adults with confirmed stroke who were assessed by a study paramedic within 4 h of symptom onset.

Primary outcome: Proportion of participants receiving IV thrombolysis.

Sample size: 1297 participants provide 90% power to detect a 10% difference in the proportion of patients receiving IV thrombolysis.

Discussion

The results from this trial will determine whether an enhanced care pathway delivered by paramedics can increase thrombolysis delivery rates.

Trial registration

ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN12418919. Registered on 5 November 2015.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13063-018-3144-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

PROCESS AND SYSTEMS: A cohort study to evaluate the impact of service centralisation for emergency admissions with acute heart failure

The aim of our study was to describe the impact of emergency care centralisation on unscheduled admissions with a primary discharge diagnosis of acute heart failure (HF). We carried out a retrospective cohort study of HF admissions 1 year before and 1 year after centralisation of three accident and emergency departments into one within a single large NHS trust. Outcomes included mortality, length of stay, readmissions, specialist inpatient input and follow-up, and prescription rates of stabilising medication. Baseline characteristics were similar for 211 patients before and for 307 following reconfiguration. Median length of stay decreased from 8 to 6 days (p=0.020) without an increase in readmissions (4.7% versus 4.2%, p=0.813). The proportion with specialist follow-up increased (60% to 72%, p=0.036). There was a trend towards decreased mortality (32.2% versus 27.7% at 90 days; p=0.266). Contact with the cardiology team was associated with decreased mortality. In conclusion, centralisation of specialist emergency care was associated with greater service efficiency and a trend towards reduced mortality.