Community antibiotic prescribing in patients with COVID-19 across three pandemic waves: a population-based study in Scotland, UK

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to examine community antibiotic prescribing across a complete geographical area for people with a positive COVID-19 test across three pandemic waves, and to examine health and demographic factors associated with antibiotic prescribing.

DESIGN

A population-based study using administrative data.

SETTING

A complete geographical region within Scotland, UK.

PARTICIPANTS

Residents of two National Health Service Scotland health boards with SARS-CoV-2 virus test results from 1 February 2020 to 31 March 2022 (n=184 954). Individuals with a positive test result (n=16 025) had data linked to prescription and hospital admission data ±28 days of the test, general practice data for high-risk comorbidities and demographic data.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The associations between patient factors and the odds of antibiotic prescription in COVID-19 episodes across three pandemic waves from multivariate binary logistic regression.

RESULTS

Data included 768 206 tests for 184 954 individuals, identifying 16 240 COVID-19 episodes involving 16 025 individuals. There were 3263 antibiotic prescriptions ±28 days for 2395 episodes. 35.6% of episodes had a prescription only before the test date, 52.3% of episodes after and 12.1% before and after. Antibiotic prescribing reduced over time: 20.4% of episodes in wave 1, 17.7% in wave 2 and 12.0% in wave 3. In multivariate logistic regression, being female (OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.45), older (OR 3.02, 95% CI 2.50 to 3.68 75+ vs <25 years), having a high-risk comorbidity (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.31 to 1.61), a hospital admission ±28 days of an episode (OR 1.58, 95% CI 1.42 to 1.77) and health board region (OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.25, board B vs A) increased the odds of receiving an antibiotic.

CONCLUSION

Community antibiotic prescriptions in COVID-19 episodes were uncommon in this population and likelihood was associated with patient factors. The reduction over pandemic waves may represent increased knowledge regarding COVID-19 treatment and/or evolving symptomatology.

Activin type I receptor polymorphisms and body composition in older individuals with sarcopenia-Analyses from the LACE randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Ageing is associated with changes in body composition including an overall reduction in muscle mass and a proportionate increase in fat mass. Sarcopenia is characterised by losses in both muscle mass and strength. Body composition and muscle strength are at least in part genetically determined, consequently polymorphisms in pathways important in muscle biology (e.g., the activin/myostatin signalling pathway) are hypothesised to contribute to the development of sarcopenia.

METHODS

We compared regional body composition measured by DXA with genotypes for two polymorphisms (rs10783486, minor allele frequency (MAF) = 0.26 and rs2854464, MAF = 0.26) in the activin 1B receptor (ACVR1B) determined by PCR in a cross-sectional analysis of DNA from 110 older individuals with sarcopenia from the LACE trial.

RESULTS

Neither muscle mass nor strength showed any significant associations with either genotype in this cohort. Initial analysis of rs10783486 showed that males with the AA/AG genotype were taller than GG males (174±7cm vs 170±5cm, p = 0.023) and had higher arm fat mass, (median higher by 15%, p = 0.008), and leg fat mass (median higher by 14%, p = 0.042). After correcting for height, arm fat mass remained significantly higher (median higher by 4% padj = 0.024). No associations (adjusted or unadjusted) were seen in females. Similar analysis of the rs2854464 allele showed a similar pattern with the presence of the minor allele (GG/AG) being associated with greater height (GG/AG = 174±7 cm vs AA = 170 ±5cm, p = 0.017) and greater arm fat mass (median higher by 16%, p = 0.023). Again, the difference in arm fat remained after correction for height. No similar associations were seen in females analysed alone.

CONCLUSION

These data suggest that polymorphic variation in the ACVR1B locus could be associated with body composition in older males. The activin/myostatin pathway might offer a novel potential target to prevent fat accumulation in older individuals.

ACE I/D genotype associates with strength in sarcopenic men but not with response to ACE inhibitor therapy in older adults with sarcopenia: Results from the LACE trial

BACKGROUND

Angiotensin II (AII), has been suggested to promote muscle loss. Reducing AII synthesis, by inhibiting angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) activity has been proposed as a method to inhibit muscle loss. The LACE clinical trial was designed to determine whether ACE inhibition would reduce further muscle loss in individuals with sarcopenia but suffered from low recruitment and returned a negative result. Polymorphic variation in the ACE promoter (I/D alleles) has been associated with differences in ACE activity and muscle physiology in a range of clinical conditions. This aim of this analysis was to determine whether I/D polymorphic variation is associated with muscle mass, strength, in sarcopenia or contributed to the lack of response to treatment in the LACE study.

METHODS

Sarcopenic individuals were recruited into a 2x2 factorial multicentre double-blind study of the effects of perindopril and/or leucine versus placebo on physical performance and muscle mass. DNA extracted from blood samples (n = 130 72 women and 58 men) was genotyped by PCR for the ACE I/D polymorphism. Genotypes were then compared with body composition measured by DXA, hand grip and quadriceps strength before and after 12 months' treatment with leucine and/or perindopril in a cross-sectional analysis of the influence of genotype on these variables.

RESULTS

Allele frequencies for the normal UK population were extracted from 13 previous studies (I = 0.473, D = 0.527). In the LACE cohort the D allele was over-represented (I = 0.412, D = 0.588, p = 0.046). This over-representation was present in men (I = 0.353, D = 0.647, p = 0.010) but not women (I = 0.458, D = 0.532, p = 0.708). In men but not women, individuals with the I allele had greater leg strength (II/ID = 18.00 kg (14.50, 21.60) vs DD = 13.20 kg (10.50, 15.90), p = 0.028). Over the 12 months individuals with the DD genotype increased in quadriceps strength but those with the II or ID genotype did not. Perindopril did not increase muscle strength or mass in any polymorphism group relative to placebo.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that although ACE genotype was not associated with response to ACE inhibitor therapy in the LACE trial population, sarcopenic men with the ACE DD genotype may be weaker than those with the ACE I/D or II genotype.

Multicenter Randomized Trial Assessing MRI and Image-guided Biopsy for Suspected Prostate Cancer: The MULTIPROS Study

Background The optimal diagnostic pathway for prostate cancer (PCa) is evolving, requiring further evaluation in a randomized controlled trial. Purpose To assess the diagnostic accuracy of prebiopsy multiparametric MRI in the identification of clinically significant PCa (csPCa) using radical prostatectomy (RP) specimens as the reference standard, and to test the diagnostic accuracy of combined US and MRI fusion-targeted biopsy with systematic biopsies. Materials and Methods In a prospective randomized controlled trial including university hospitals, men with suspected PCa were recruited between January 2015 and August 2020 to assess the diagnostic accuracy of multiparametric MRI before biopsy in detection of csPCa at biopsy and RP histopathologic structure (primary outcome). Men with lesions suspicious for cancer (Prostate Imaging and Reporting Data System [PI-RADS] ≥3) at multiparametric MRI were first randomized to either systematic random prostate biopsies alone (control group) or US and MRI fusion-targeted biopsies with systematic random prostate biopsies (intervention group) at a one-to-one ratio to compare the diagnostic accuracy of systematic random versus combined fusion with systematic random biopsies (secondary outcome). A subset of recruited participants (n = 89) underwent RP and histologic sectioning. Results There were 582 participants who were eligible to undergo multiparametric MRI (mean age, 65 years ± 6 [SD]). In total, 413 had a PI-RADS score of at least 3 and were randomized into either the intervention group (207 of 413; 50.1%) or control group (206 of 413; 49.9%). The csPCa detection rate in the intervention group was higher, with an adjusted odds ratio of 1.79 (95% CI: 1.14, 2.79; P = .01). A subgroup of 89 men underwent RP (21.5%; 89 of 413). Multiparametric MRI helped correctly identify 131 of 182 csPCa foci in 89 men (sensitivity, 72%; 95% CI: 65, 78). The specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 71% (91 of 128), 78% (131 of 168), and 64% (91 of 142), respectively. Conclusion Prebiopsy multiparametric MRI was accurate in the depiction of clinically significant PCa. Combining US and MRI fusion-targeted biopsies with systematic biopsies helped detect more clinically significant lesions than did systematic biopsies alone. Clinical trial registration no. NCT02745496 © RSNA, 2023 Supplemental material is available for this article.

External validation of the QLifetime cardiovascular risk prediction tool: population cohort study

BACKGROUND

Prediction of lifetime cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is recommended in many clinical guidelines, but lifetime risk models are rarely externally validated. The aim of this study was to externally validate the QRiskLifetime incident CVD risk prediction tool.

METHODS

Independent external validation of QRiskLifetime using Clinical Practice Research Datalink data, examining discrimination and calibration in the whole population and stratified by age, and reclassification compared to QRISK3. Since lifetime CVD risk is unobservable, performance was evaluated at 10-years' follow-up, and lifetime performance inferred in terms of performance for in the different age-groups from which lifetime predictions are derived.

RESULTS

One million, two hundreds sixty thousand and three hundreds twenty nine women and 1,223,265 men were included in the analysis. Discrimination was excellent in the whole population (Harrell's-C = 0.844 in women, 0.808 in men), but moderate to poor stratified by age-group (Harrell's C in people aged 30-44 0.714 for both men and women, in people aged 75-84 0.578 in women and 0.556 in men). Ten-year CVD risk was under-predicted in the whole population, and in all age-groups except women aged 45-64, with worse under-prediction in older age-groups. Compared to those at highest QRISK3 estimated 10-year risk, those with highest lifetime risk were younger (mean age: women 50.5 vs. 71.3 years; men 46.3 vs. 63.8 years) and had lower systolic blood pressure and prevalence of treated hypertension, but had more family history of premature CVD, and were more commonly minority ethnic. Over 10-years, the estimated number needed to treat (NNT) with a statin to prevent one CVD event in people with QRISK3 ≥ 10% was 34 in women and 37 in men, compared to 99 and 100 for those at highest lifetime risk.

CONCLUSIONS

QRiskLifetime underpredicts 10-year CVD risk in nearly all age-groups, so is likely to also underpredict lifetime risk. Treatment based on lifetime risk has considerably lower medium-term benefit than treatment based on 10-year risk.

Free-text analysis of general practice out-of-hours (GPOOH) use by people with advanced cancer: an analysis of coded and uncoded free-text data

BACKGROUND

People with advanced cancer frequently use the GP out-of-hours (GPOOH) service. Considerable amounts of routine GPOOH data are uncoded. Therefore, these data are omitted from existing healthcare datasets.

AIM

To conduct a free-text analysis of a GPOOH dataset, to identify reasons for attendance and care delivered through GPOOH to people with advanced cancer.

DESIGN AND SETTING

An analysis of a GPOOH healthcare dataset was undertaken. It contained all coded and free- text information for 5749 attendances from a cohort of 2443 people who died from cancer in Tayside, Scotland, from 2013-2015.

METHOD

Random sampling methods selected 575 consultations for free-text analysis. Each consultation was analysed by two independent reviewers to determine the following: assigned presenting complaints; key and additional palliative care symptoms recorded in free text; evidence of anticipatory care planning; and free-text recording of dispensed medications. Inter-rater reliability concordance was established through Kappa testing.

RESULTS

More than half of all coded reasons for attendance (n = 293; 51.0%) were 'other' or 'missing'. Free-text analysis demonstrated that nearly half (n = 284; 49.4%) of GPOOH attendances by people with advanced cancer were for pain or palliative care. More than half of GPOOH attendances (n = 325; 56.5%) recorded at least one key or additional palliative care symptom in free text, with the commonest being breathlessness, vomiting, cough, and nausea. Anticipatory care planning was poorly recorded in both coded and uncoded records. Uncoded medications were dispensed in more than one- quarter of GPOOH consultations.

CONCLUSION

GPOOH delivers a substantial amount of pain management and palliative care, much of which is uncoded. Therefore, it is unrecognised and under-reported in existing large healthcare data analyses.

Derivation and validation of the CFracture competing risk fracture prediction tool compared with QFracture in older people and people with comorbidity: a population cohort study

BACKGROUND

UK guidelines recommend the QFracture tool to predict the risk of major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture, but QFracture calibration is poor, partly because it does not account for competing mortality risk. The aim of this study was to derive and validate a competing risk model to predict major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture (CFracture) and compare its performance with that of QFracture in UK primary care.

METHODS

We used UK linked primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD database to identify people aged 30-99 years, split into derivation and validation cohorts. In the derivation cohort, we derived models (CFracture) using the same covariates as QFracture with Fine-Gray competing risk modelling, and included the Charlson Comorbidity Index score as an additional predictor of non-fracture death. In a separate validation cohort, we examined discrimination (using Harrell's C-statistic) and calibration of CFracture compared with QFracture. Reclassification analysis examined differences in the characteristics of patients reclassified as higher risk by CFracture but not by QFracture.

FINDINGS

The derivation cohort included 1 831 606 women and 1 789 820 men, and the validation cohort included 915 803 women and 894 910 men. Overall discrimination of CFracture was excellent (C-statistic=0·813 [95% CI 0·810-0·816] for major osteoporotic fracture and 0·914 [0·908-0·919] for hip fracture in women; 0·734 [0·729-0·740] for major osteoporotic fracture and 0·886 [0·877-0·895] for hip fracture in men) and was similar to QFracture. CFracture calibration overall and in people younger than 75 years was generally excellent. CFracture overpredicted major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture in older people and people with comorbidity, but was better calibrated than QFracture. Patients classified as high-risk by CFracture but not by QFracture had a higher prevalence of current smoking and previous fracture, but lower prevalence of dementia, cancer, cardiovascular disease, renal disease, and diabetes.

INTERPRETATION

CFracture has similar discrimination to QFracture but is better calibrated overall and in younger people. Both models performed poorly in adults aged 85 years and older. Competing risk models should be recommended for fracture risk prediction to guide treatment recommendations.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health and Care Research, Wellcome Trust, Health Data Research UK.

Clinical improvement of DM1 patients reflected by reversal of disease-induced gene expression in blood

BACKGROUND

Myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1) is an incurable multisystem disease caused by a CTG-repeat expansion in the DM1 protein kinase (DMPK) gene. The OPTIMISTIC clinical trial demonstrated positive and heterogenous effects of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) on the capacity for activity and social participations in DM1 patients. Through a process of reverse engineering, this study aims to identify druggable molecular biomarkers associated with the clinical improvement in the OPTIMISTIC cohort.

METHODS

Based on full blood samples collected during OPTIMISTIC, we performed paired mRNA sequencing for 27 patients before and after the CBT intervention. Linear mixed effect models were used to identify biomarkers associated with the disease-causing CTG expansion and the mean clinical improvement across all clinical outcome measures.

RESULTS

We identified 608 genes for which their expression was significantly associated with the CTG-repeat expansion, as well as 1176 genes significantly associated with the average clinical response towards the intervention. Remarkably, all 97 genes associated with both returned to more normal levels in patients who benefited the most from CBT. This main finding has been replicated based on an external dataset of mRNA data of DM1 patients and controls, singling these genes out as candidate biomarkers for therapy response. Among these candidate genes were DNAJB12, HDAC5, and TRIM8, each belonging to a protein family that is being studied in the context of neurological disorders or muscular dystrophies. Across the different gene sets, gene pathway enrichment analysis revealed disease-relevant impaired signaling in, among others, insulin-, metabolism-, and immune-related pathways. Furthermore, evidence for shared dysregulations with another neuromuscular disease, Duchenne muscular dystrophy, was found, suggesting a partial overlap in blood-based gene dysregulation.

CONCLUSIONS

DM1-relevant disease signatures can be identified on a molecular level in peripheral blood, opening new avenues for drug discovery and therapy efficacy assessments.

Patient outcomes following AKI and AKD: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is common and associated with adverse outcomes as well as important healthcare costs. However, evidence examining the epidemiology of acute kidney disease (AKD)-recently defined as AKI persisting between 7 and 90 days-remains limited. The aims of this study were to establish the rates of early AKI recovery, progression to AKD and non-recovery; examine risk factors associated with non-recovery and investigate the association between recovery timing and adverse outcomes, in a population-based cohort.

METHODS

All adult residents of Tayside & Fife, Scotland, UK, with at least one episode of community or hospital-managed AKI using KDIGO creatinine-based definition during the period 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2018 were identified. Logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with non-recovery, and Cox modelling was used to establish associations between AKI recovery timing and risks of mortality and development of de novo CKD.

RESULTS

Over 9 years, 56,906 patients with at least one AKI episode were identified with 18,773 (33%) of these progressing to AKD. Of those progressing to AKD, 5059 (27%) had still not recovered at day 90 post AKI diagnosis. Risk factors for AKD included: increasing AKI severity, pre-existing cancer or chronic heart failure and recent use of loop diuretics. Compared with early AKI recovery, progression to AKD was associated with increased hazard of 1-year mortality and de novo CKD (HR = 1.20, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.26 and HR = 2.21, 95% CI 1.91 to 2.57 respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings highlight the importance of early AKI recognition and management to avoid progression to AKD and long-term adverse outcomes.

Community prescribing trends and prevalence in the last year of life, for people who die from cancer

Background

People who die from cancer (‘cancer decedents’) may latterly experience unpleasant and distressing symptoms. Prescribing medication for pain and symptom control is essential for good-quality palliative care; however, such provision is variable, difficult to quantify and poorly characterised in current literature. This study aims to characterise trends in prescribing analgesia, non-analgesic palliative care medication and non-palliative medications, to cancer decedents, in their last year of life, and to assess any associations with demographic or clinical factors.

Methods

This descriptive study, analysed all 181,247 prescriptions issued to a study population of 2443 cancer decedents in Tayside, Scotland (2013–2015), in the last year of life, linking prescribing data to demographic, and cancer registry datasets using the unique patient-identifying Community Health Index (CHI) number. Anonymised linked data were analysed in Safe Haven using chi-squared test for trend, binary logistic regression and Poisson regression in SPSSv25.

Results

In their last year of life, three in four cancer decedents were prescribed strong opioids. Two-thirds of those prescribed opioids were also prescribed laxatives and/or anti-emetics. Only four in ten cancer decedents were prescribed all medications in the ‘Just in Case’ medication categories and only one in ten was prescribed breakthrough analgesia in the last year of life. The number of prescriptions for analgesia and palliative care drugs increased in the last 12 weeks of life. The number of prescriptions for non-palliative care medications, including anti-hypertensives, statins and bone protection, decreased over the last year, but was still substantial. Cancer decedents who were female, younger, or had lung cancer were more likely to be prescribed strong opioids; however, male cancer decedents had higher odds of being prescribed breakthrough analgesia. Cancer decedents who had late diagnoses had lower odds of being prescribed strong opioids.

Conclusions

A substantial proportion of cancer decedents were not prescribed strong opioids, breakthrough medication, or medication to alleviate common palliative care symptoms (including ‘Just in Case’ medication). Many patients continued to be prescribed non-palliative care medications in their last days and weeks of life. Age, gender, cancer type and timing of diagnosis affected patients’ odds of being prescribed analgesic and non-analgesic palliative care medication.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12904-022-00996-3.

Predictive performance of a competing risk cardiovascular prediction tool CRISK compared to QRISK3 in older people and those with comorbidity: population cohort study

BACKGROUND

Recommended cardiovascular disease (CVD) prediction tools do not account for competing mortality risk and over-predict incident CVD in older and multimorbid people. The aim of this study was to derive and validate a competing risk model (CRISK) to predict incident CVD and compare its performance to that of QRISK3 in UK primary care.

METHODS

We used UK linked primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD to identify people aged 25-84 years with no previous CVD or statin treatment split into derivation and validation cohorts. In the derivation cohort, we derived models using the same covariates as QRISK3 with Fine-Gray competing risk modelling alone (CRISK) and with Charlson Comorbidity score (CRISK-CCI) as an additional predictor of non-CVD death. In a separate validation cohort, we examined discrimination and calibration compared to QRISK3. Reclassification analysis examined the number of patients recommended for treatment and the estimated number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent a new CVD event.

RESULTS

The derivation and validation cohorts included 989,732 and 494,865 women and 946,784 and 473,392 men respectively. Overall discrimination of CRISK and CRISK-CCI were excellent and similar to QRISK3 (for women, C-statistic = 0.863/0.864/0.863 respectively; for men 0.833/0.819/0.832 respectively). CRISK and CRISK-CCI calibration overall and in younger people was excellent. CRISK over-predicted in older and multimorbid people although performed better than QRISK3, whilst CRISK-CCI performed the best. The proportion of people reclassified by CRISK-CCI varied by QRISK3 risk score category, with 0.7-9.7% of women and 2.8-25.2% of men reclassified as higher risk and 21.0-69.1% of women and 27.1-57.4% of men reclassified as lower risk. Overall, CRISK-CCI recommended fewer people for treatment and had a lower estimated NNT at 10% risk threshold. Patients reclassified as higher risk were younger, had lower SBP and higher BMI, and were more likely to smoke.

CONCLUSIONS

CRISK and CRISK-CCI performed better than QRISK3. CRISK-CCI recommends fewer people for treatment and has a lower NNT to prevent a new CVD event compared to QRISK3. Competing risk models should be recommended for CVD primary prevention treatment recommendations.

Effect of perindopril or leucine on physical performance in older people with sarcopenia: the LACE randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

This trial aimed to determine the efficacy of leucine and/or perindopril in improving physical function in older people with sarcopenia.

METHODS

Placebo-controlled, parallel group, double-blind, randomized two-by-two factorial trial. We recruited adults aged ≥ 70 years with sarcopenia, defined as low gait speed (<0.8 m/s on 4 m walk) and/or low handgrip strength (women < 20 kg, men < 30 kg) plus low muscle mass (using sex and body mass index category-specific thresholds derived from normative UK BioBank data) from 14 UK centres. Eligible participants were randomized to perindopril 4 mg or placebo, and to oral leucine powder 2.5 g or placebo thrice daily. The primary outcome was the between-group difference in the short physical performance battery (SPPB) score over 12-month follow-up by repeated-measures mixed models. Results were combined with existing systematic reviews using random-effects meta-analysis to derive summary estimates of treatment efficacy.

RESULTS

We screened 320 people and randomized 145 participants compared with an original target of 440 participants. For perindopril [n = 73, mean age 79 (SD 6), female sex 39 (53%), mean SPPB 7.1 (SD 2.3)] versus no perindopril [n = 72, mean age 79 (SD 6), female sex 39 (54%), mean SPPB 6.9 (SD 2.4)], median adherence to perindopril was lower (76% vs. 96%; P < 0.001). Perindopril did not improve the primary outcome [adjusted treatment effect -0.1 points (95%CI -1.2 to 1.0), P = 0.89]. No significant treatment benefit was seen for any secondary outcome including muscle mass [adjusted treatment effect -0.4 kg (95%CI -1.1 to 0.3), P = 0.27]. More adverse events occurred in the perindopril group (218 vs. 165), but falls rates were similar. For leucine [n = 72, mean age 78 (SD 6), female sex 38 (53%), mean SPPB 7.0 (SD 2.1)] versus no leucine [n = 72, mean age 79 (SD 6), female sex 40 (55%), mean SPPB 7.0 (SD 2.5)], median adherence was the same in both groups (76% vs. 76%; P = 0.99). Leucine did not improve the primary outcome [adjusted treatment effect 0.1 point (95%CI -1.0 to 1.1), P = 0.90]. No significant treatment benefit was seen for any secondary outcome including muscle mass [adjusted treatment effect -0.3 kg (95%CI -1.0 to 0.4), P = 0.47]. Meta-analysis of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker trials showed no clinically important treatment effect for the SPPB [between-group difference -0.1 points (95%CI -0.4 to 0.2)].

CONCLUSIONS

Neither perindopril nor leucine improved physical performance or muscle mass in this trial; meta-analysis did not find evidence of efficacy of either ACE inhibitors or leucine as treatments to improve physical performance.

Death from cancer: frequent unscheduled care

OBJECTIVE

To examine the demographic, clinical, and temporal factors associated with cancer decedents being a frequent or very frequent unscheduled care (GP-general practice Out-Of-Hours (GPOOH) and Accident & Emergency (A&E)) attender, in their last year of life.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study, of all 2443 cancer decedents in Tayside, Scotland, over 30- months period up to 06/2015, comparing frequent attenders (5-9 attendances/year) and very frequent attenders (≥10 attendances/year) to infrequent attenders (1-4 attendances/year) and non-attenders. Clinical and demographic datasets were linked to routinely-collected clinical data using the Community Health Index number. Anonymised linked data were analysed in SafeHaven, using binary/multinomial logistic regression, and Generalised Estimating Equations analysis.

RESULTS

Frequent attenders were more likely to be older, and have upper gastrointestinal (GI), haematological, breast and ovarian malignancies, and less likely to live in accessible areas or have a late cancer diagnosis. They were more likely to use GPOOH than A&E, less likely to have face-to-face unscheduled care attendances, and less likely to be admitted to hospital following unscheduled care attendance.

CONCLUSIONS

Age, cancer type, accessibility and timing of diagnosis relative to death were associated with increased likelihood of being a frequent or very frequent attender at unscheduled care.

667 EFFECT OF LEUCINE SUPPLEMENTATION ON PHYSICAL PERFORMANCE, MUSCLE MASS AND QUALITY OF LIFE IN OLDER PEOPLE WITH SARCOPENIA

Introduction

Leucine supplementation improves muscle protein synthesis in physiological studies and has been proposed as a treatment to improve muscle mass and physical performance. We tested the effects of leucine supplementation in a randomised controlled trial enrolling patients with sarcopenia.

Methods

We conducted a placebo-controlled, parallel group, double-blind, randomised two-by-two factorial trial. Participants aged 70 and over with low muscle mass by bioimpedance and either low grip strength or low walk speed, were recruited from 14 UK sites. Participants were randomised to receive one year of leucine powder 2.5 g three times a day or matching placebo, plus perindopril 4 mg once daily or matching placebo. The primary outcome was the between-group difference in the Short Physical Performance Battery, measured at baseline, 6 and 12 months, analysed using repeated-measures mixed models. Secondary outcomes included grip strength, quadriceps strength, six-minute walk distance, appendicular muscle mass measured by dual x-ray absorptiometry, quality of life measured using the EQ5D tool, falls rates and adverse events.

Results

We screened 320 people and randomised 145 participants, mean age 79 (SD 6) years; 78 (54%) were women and the mean SPPB was 7.0 (SD 2.4). 72 were randomised to leucine and 73 to placebo. Median adherence was the same in both groups (76% vs 76%; p &lt; 0.001). Leucine had no significant effect on the primary outcome (adjusted treatment effect 0.1 points [95%CI -1.0 to 1.1]). No significant treatment effect was seen for any secondary outcome. There were similar numbers of adverse events in both groups (leucine 187, placebo 196) and falls rates were similar (leucine 1.9 [95%CI 0.9 to 2.9] per year; placebo 2.9 [95%CI 0.8 to 5.0] per year).

Conclusion

Leucine did not improve measures of physical performance, muscle mass or quality of life in older people with sarcopenia.

666 EFFECT OF PERINDOPRIL ON PHYSICAL PERFORMANCE, MUSCLE MASS AND QUALITY OF LIFE IN OLDER PEOPLE WITH SARCOPENIA: RESULTS: FROM THE

Introduction

Angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors such as perindopril have been proposed as treatments to improve muscle mass and physical performance but have not been tested in randomised controlled trials enrolling patients with sarcopenia.

Methods

We conducted a placebo-controlled, parallel group, double-blind, randomised two-by-two factorial trial. Participants aged 70 and over with low muscle mass by bioimpedance and either low grip strength or low walk speed, were recruited from 14 UK sites. Participants were randomised to receive one year of perindopril 4 mg once daily or matching placebo, and to receive leucine powder 2.5 g three times a day or matching placebo. The primary outcome was the between-group difference in the Short Physical Performance Battery, measured at baseline, 6 and 12 months, analysed using repeated-measures mixed models. Secondary outcomes included grip strength, quadriceps strength, six-minute walk distance, appendicular muscle mass measured by dual x-ray absorptiometry, quality of life measured using the EQ5D tool, falls rates and adverse events.

Results

We screened 320 people and randomised 145 participants, mean age 79 (SD 6) years; 78 (54%) were women and the mean SPPB was 7.0 (SD 2.4). 73 were randomised to perindopril and 72 to placebo. Median adherence was lower for perindopril (76% vs 96%; p &lt; 0.001). Perindopril had no significant effect on the primary outcome (adjusted treatment effect −0.1 points [95%CI -1.2 to 1.0]). No significant treatment effect was seen for any secondary outcome except for worse EQ5D thermometer scores in the perindopril group (treatment effect −12 points [95%CI -21 to −3]). More adverse events were seen in the perindopril group (218 vs 165) but falls rates were similar (perindopril 2.0 [95%CI 1.1 to 3.0] per year; placebo 2.8 [95%CI 0.6 to 5.1] per year).

Conclusion

Perindopril did not improve measures of physical performance, muscle mass or quality of life in older people with sarcopenia.

Intolerance to Angiotensin Converting Enzyme Inhibitors in Asthma and the General Population: A UK Population-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI) intolerance commonly occurs, requiring switching to an angiotensin-II receptor blocker (ARB). Angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor intolerance may be mediated by bradykinin, potentially affecting airway hyperresponsiveness.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the risk for switching to ARBs in asthma.

METHODS

We conducted a new-user cohort study of ACEI initiators identified from electronic health records from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. The risk for switching to ARBs in people with asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and the general population was compared. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using Cox regression, stratified by British Thoracic Society (BTS) treatment step and ACEI type.

RESULTS

Of 642,336 new users of ACEI, 6.4% had active asthma. The hazard of switching to ARB was greater in people with asthma (HR = 1.16; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.14-1.18; P ≤ .001) and highest in those at BTS step 3 or greater (HR = 1.35, 95% CI, 1.32-1.39; and HR = 1.18, 95% CI, 1.15-1.22, P ≤ .001 for patients aged ≥60 and <60 years, respectively). Hazard was highest with enalapril (HR = 1.25, 95% CI, 1.18-1.34, P ≤ .001; HR = 1.44, 95% CI, 1.32-1.58, P ≤ .001 for BTS step 3 or greater asthma). No increased hazard was observed in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or those younger than age 60 years at BTS step 1/2. The number needed to treat varied by age, sex, and body mass index (BMI), ranging between 21 and 4, and was lowest in older women with a BMI of 25 or greater.

CONCLUSIONS

People with active asthma are more likely to switch to ARBs after commencing ACEI therapy. The number needed to treat varies by age, sex, BMI, and BTS step. Angiotensin-II receptor blocker could potentially be considered first-line in people with asthma and in those with high-risk characteristics.

Real time remote symptom monitoring during chemotherapy for cancer: European multicentre randomised controlled trial (eSMART)

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate effects of remote monitoring of adjuvant chemotherapy related side effects via the Advanced Symptom Management System (ASyMS) on symptom burden, quality of life, supportive care needs, anxiety, self-efficacy, and work limitations.

DESIGN

Multicentre, repeated measures, parallel group, evaluator masked, stratified randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

Twelve cancer centres in Austria, Greece, Norway, Republic of Ireland, and UK.

PARTICIPANTS

829 patients with non-metastatic breast cancer, colorectal cancer, Hodgkin's disease, or non-Hodgkin's lymphoma receiving first line adjuvant chemotherapy or chemotherapy for the first time in five years.

INTERVENTION

Patients were randomised to ASyMS (intervention; n=415) or standard care (control; n=414) over six cycles of chemotherapy.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was symptom burden (Memorial Symptom Assessment Scale; MSAS). Secondary outcomes were health related quality of life (Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-General; FACT-G), Supportive Care Needs Survey Short-Form (SCNS-SF34), State-Trait Anxiety Inventory-Revised (STAI-R), Communication and Attitudinal Self-Efficacy scale for cancer (CASE-Cancer), and work limitations questionnaire (WLQ).

RESULTS

For the intervention group, symptom burden remained at pre-chemotherapy treatment levels, whereas controls reported an increase from cycle 1 onwards (least squares absolute mean difference -0.15, 95% confidence interval -0.19 to -0.12; P<0.001; Cohen's D effect size=0.5). Analysis of MSAS sub-domains indicated significant reductions in favour of ASyMS for global distress index (-0.21, -0.27 to -0.16; P<0.001), psychological symptoms (-0.16, -0.23 to -0.10; P<0.001), and physical symptoms (-0.21, -0.26 to -0.17; P<0.001). FACT-G scores were higher in the intervention group across all cycles (mean difference 4.06, 95% confidence interval 2.65 to 5.46; P<0.001), whereas mean scores for STAI-R trait (-1.15, -1.90 to -0.41; P=0.003) and STAI-R state anxiety (-1.13, -2.06 to -0.20; P=0.02) were lower. CASE-Cancer scores were higher in the intervention group (mean difference 0.81, 0.19 to 1.43; P=0.01), and most SCNS-SF34 domains were lower, including sexuality needs (-1.56, -3.11 to -0.01; P<0.05), patient care and support needs (-1.74, -3.31 to -0.16; P=0.03), and physical and daily living needs (-2.8, -5.0 to -0.6; P=0.01). Other SCNS-SF34 domains and WLQ were not significantly different. Safety of ASyMS was satisfactory. Neutropenic events were higher in the intervention group.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant reduction in symptom burden supports the use of ASyMS for remote symptom monitoring in cancer care. A "medium" Cohen's effect size of 0.5 showed a sizable, positive clinical effect of ASyMS on patients' symptom experiences. Remote monitoring systems will be vital for future services, particularly with blended models of care delivery arising from the covid-19 pandemic.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials.gov NCT02356081.

Effect of competing mortality risks on predictive performance of the QRISK3 cardiovascular risk prediction tool in older people and those with comorbidity: external validation population cohort study

BACKGROUND

Primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is guided by risk-prediction tools, but these rarely account for the risk of dying from other conditions (ie, competing mortality risk). In England and Wales, the recommended risk-prediction tool is QRISK2, and a new version (QRISK3) has been derived and internally validated. We aimed to externally validate QRISK3 and to assess the effects of competing mortality risk on its predictive performance.

METHODS

For this retrospective population cohort study, we used data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. We included patients aged 25-84 years with no previous history of CVD or statin treatment who were permanently registered with a primary care practice, had up-to-standard data for at least 1 year, and had linkage to Hospital Episode Statistics discharge and Office of National Statistics mortality data. We compared the QRISK3-predicted 10-year CVD risk with the observed 10-year risk in the whole population and in important subgroups of age and multimorbidity. QRISK3 discrimination and calibration were examined with and without accounting for competing risks.

FINDINGS

Our study population included 1 484 597 women with 42 451 incident CVD events (4·9 cases per 1000 person-years of follow-up, 95% CI 4·89-4·99), and 1 420 176 men with 53 066 incident CVD events (6·7 cases per 1000 person-years, 6·66-6·78), with median follow-up of 5·0 years (IQR 1·9-9·2). Non-CVD death rose markedly with age (0·4% of women and 0·5% of men aged 25-44 years had a non-CVD death vs 20·1% of women and 19·6% of men aged 75-84 years). QRISK3 discrimination in the whole population was excellent (Harrell's C-statistic 0·865 in women and 0·834 in men) but was poor in older age groups (<0·65 in all subgroups aged 65 years or older). Ignoring competing risks, QRISK3 calibration in the whole population and in younger people was excellent, but there was significant over-prediction in older people. Accounting for competing risks, QRISK3 systematically over-predicted CVD risk, particularly in older people and in those with high multimorbidity.

INTERPRETATION

QRISK3 performed well at the whole population level when ignoring competing mortality risk. The tool performed considerably less well in important subgroups, including older people and people with multimorbidity, and less well again after accounting for competing mortality risk.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research.

A novel approach to increasing community capacity for weight management a volunteer-delivered programme (ActWELL) initiated within breast screening clinics: a randomised controlled trial

Background

It is estimated that around 30% of breast cancers in post-menopausal women are related to lifestyle. The breast cancer-pooling project demonstrated that sustained weight loss of 2 to 4.5 kg is associated with an 18% lower risk of breast cancer, highlighting the importance of small changes in body weight. Our study aimed to assess the effectiveness a volunteer-delivered, community based, weight management programme (ActWELL) for women with a BMI > 25 kg/m² attending NHS Scotland Breast Screening clinics.

Methods

A multicentre, 1:1 parallel group, randomised controlled trial was undertaken in 560 women aged 50 to 70 years with BMI > 25 kg/m². On completion of baseline measures, all participants received a breast cancer prevention leaflet. Intervention group participants received the ActWELL intervention which focussed on personalised diet advice and pedometer walking plans. The programme was delivered in leisure centres by (the charity) Breast Cancer Now volunteer coaches.

Primary outcomes were changes between groups at 12 months in body weight (kg) and physical activity (accelerometer measured step count).

Results

Two hundred seventy-nine women were allocated to the intervention group and 281 to the comparison group. Twelve-month data were available from 240 (81%) intervention and 227 (85%) comparison group participants. Coaches delivered 523 coaching sessions and 1915 support calls to 279 intervention participants. Mean weight change was − 2.5 kg (95% CI − 3.1 to − 1.9) in the intervention group and − 1.2 kg (− 1.8 to 0.6) in the comparison group. The adjusted mean difference was − 1.3 kg (95% CI − 2.2 to − 0.4, P = 0.003). The odds ratio for losing 5% weight was 2.20 (95% CI 1.4 to 3.4, p = 0.0005) in favour of the intervention. The adjusted mean difference in step counts between groups was 483 steps/day (95% CI − 635 to 1602) (NS).

Conclusions

A community weight management intervention initiated at breast screening clinics and delivered by volunteer coaches doubled the likelihood of clinically significant weight loss at 12 months (compared with usual care) offering significant potential to decrease breast cancer risk.

Trial registration

Database of registration: ISCRTN.

Registration number:11057518.

Date trial registered:21.07.2017.

Date of enrolment of first participant: 01.09.2017.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12966-021-01099-7.

Surgical interventions for the early management of Bell's palsy

BACKGROUND

Bell's palsy is an acute unilateral facial paralysis of unknown aetiology and should only be used as a diagnosis in the absence of any other pathology. As the proposed pathophysiology is swelling and entrapment of the nerve, some surgeons suggest surgical decompression of the nerve as a possible management option; this is ideally performed as soon as possible after onset. This is an update of a review first published in 2011, and last updated in 2013. This update includes evidence from one newly identified study.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects of surgery in the early management of Bell's palsy.

SEARCH METHODS

On 20 March 2020, we searched the Cochrane Neuromuscular Specialised Register, CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, ClinicalTrials.gov and WHO ICTRP. We handsearched selected conference abstracts for the original version of the review.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included all randomised controlled trials (RCTs) or quasi-RCTs involving any surgical intervention for Bell's palsy. Trials compared surgical interventions to no treatment, later treatment (beyond three months), sham treatment, other surgical treatments or medical treatment.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Three review authors independently assessed trials for inclusion, assessed risk of bias and extracted data. We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. The primary outcome was complete recovery of facial palsy at 12 months. Secondary outcomes were complete recovery at three and six months, synkinesis and contracture at 12 months, psychosocial outcomes at 12 months, and side effects and complications of treatment.

MAIN RESULTS

Two trials with 65 participants met the inclusion criteria; one was newly identified at this update. The first study randomised 25 participants into surgical or non-surgical (no treatment) groups using statistical charts. One participant declined surgery, leaving 24 evaluable participants. The second study quasi-randomised 53 participants; however, only 41 were evaluable as 12 declined the intervention they were allocated. These 41 participants were then divided into early surgery, late surgery or non-surgical (no treatment) groups using alternation. There was no mention on how alternation was decided. Neither study mentioned if there was any attempt to conceal allocation. Neither participants nor outcome assessors were blinded to the interventions in either study. There were no losses to follow-up in the first study. The second study lost three participants to follow-up, and 17 did not contribute to the assessment of secondary outcomes. Both studies were at high risk of bias. Surgeons in both studies used a retro-auricular/transmastoid approach to decompress the facial nerve. For the outcome recovery of facial palsy at 12 months, the evidence was uncertain. The first study reported no differences between the surgical and no treatment groups. The second study fully reported numerical data, but included no statistical comparisons between groups for complete recovery. There was no evidence of a difference for the early surgery versus no treatment comparison (risk ratio (RR) 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.05 to 11.11; P = 0.84; 33 participants; very low-certainty evidence) and for the early surgery versus late surgery comparison (RR 0.47, 95% CI 0.03 to 6.60; P = 0.58; 26 participants; very low-certainty evidence). We considered the effects of surgery on facial nerve function at 12 months very uncertain (2 RCTs, 65 participants; very low-certainty evidence). Furthermore, the second study reported adverse effects with a statistically significant decrease in lacrimal control in the surgical group within two to three months of denervation. Four participants in the second study had 35 dB to 50 dB of sensorineural hearing loss at 4000 Hz, and three had tinnitus. Because of the small numbers and trial design we also considered the adverse effects evidence very uncertain (2 RCTs, 65 participants; very low-certainty evidence).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

There is very low-certainty evidence from RCTs or quasi-RCTs on surgery for the early management of Bell's palsy, and this is insufficient to decide whether surgical intervention is beneficial or harmful. Further research into the role of surgical intervention is unlikely to be performed because spontaneous or medically supported recovery occurs in most cases.

Trends in gabapentinoid prescribing, co-prescribing of opioids and benzodiazepines, and associated deaths in Scotland

BACKGROUND

Gabapentinoid drugs (gabapentin and pregabalin) are effective in neuropathic pain, which has a prevalence of ∼7%. Concerns about increased prescribing have implications for patient safety, misuse, and diversion. Drug-related deaths (DRDs) have increased and toxicology often implicates gabapentinoids. We studied national and regional prescribing rates (2006-2016) and identified associated sociodemographic factors, co-prescriptions and mortality, including DRDs.

METHODS

National data from the Information Service Division, NHS Scotland were analysed for prescribing, sociodemographic, and mortality data from the Health Informatics Centre, University of Dundee. DRDs in which gabapentinoids were implicated were identified from National Records of Scotland and Tayside Drug Death Databases.

RESULTS

From 2006 to 2016, the number of gabapentin prescriptions in Scotland increased 4-fold (164 630 to 694 293), and pregabalin 16-fold (27 094 to 435 490). In 2016 'recurrent users' (three or more prescriptions) had mean age 58.1 yr, were mostly females (62.5%), and were more likely to live in deprived areas. Of these, 60% were co-prescribed an opioid, benzodiazepine, or both (opioid 49.9%, benzodiazepine 26.8%, both 17.1%). The age-standardised death rate in those prescribed gabapentinoids was double that in the Scottish population (relative risk 2.16, 95% confidence interval 2.08-2.25). Increases in gabapentinoids contributing to cause of DRDs were reported regionally and nationally (gabapentin 23% vs 15%; pregabalin 21% vs 7%). In Tayside, gabapentinoids were implicated in 22 (39%) of DRDs, 17 (77%) of whom had not received a prescription.

CONCLUSIONS

Gabapentinoid prescribing has increased dramatically since 2006, as have dangerous co-prescribing and death (including DRDs). Older people, women, and those living in deprived areas were particularly likely to receive prescriptions. Their contribution to DRDs may be more related to illegal use with diversion of prescribed medication.

Clinical effectiveness of pharmacist-led versus conventionally delivered antiviral treatment for hepatitis C virus in patients receiving opioid substitution therapy: a pragmatic, cluster-randomised trial

BACKGROUND

Highly effective direct-acting antiviral drugs provide the opportunity to eliminate hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, but established pathways can be ineffective. We aimed to examine whether a community pharmacy care pathway increased treatment uptake, treatment completion, and cure rates for people receiving opioid substitution therapy, compared with conventional care.

METHODS

This cluster-randomised trial was done in Scottish community pharmacies. Before participants were recruited, pharmacies were randomly assigned (1:1) to refer patients with evidence of HCV antibodies to conventional care or offered them care in the pharmacy (pharmacist-led care). Pharmacies were stratified by location. All pharmacies were trained to offer dried blood spot testing. All eligible participants had received opioid substitution therapy for approximately 3 months, and those eligible to receive treatment in the pharmacist-led care pathway were HCV PCR positive, were infected with HCV genotype 1 or 3, and were willing to have a pharmacist supervise their antiviral drug administration. Neither pharmacists nor patients were masked to treatment allocation. In both groups, assessment blood samples were taken, infection with HCV was confirmed, and daily oral ledipasvir-sofosbuvir (90 mg ledipasivir plus 400 mg sofosbuvir) for 8 weeks for genotype 1 or daily oral sofosbuvir (400 mg) plus oral daclatasvir (60 mg) for 12 weeks for genotype 3 was prescribed by a nurse (conventional care group) or pharmacist (pharmacist-led care group). In the conventional care group, the patient received care at a treatment centre. Once prescribed, medication in both groups was delivered as daily modified directly observed therapy alongside opioid substitution therapy in the participants' pharmacy where treatment was observed on 6 days per week. The primary outcome was the number of patients with sustained virological response 12 weeks after completion of treatment (SVR12) as a proportion of the number of people receiving opioid substitution therapy at participating pharmacies. Participants were monitored at each visit for nausea and fatigue; other adverse events were recorded as free text. Secondary outcomes compared key points on treatment pathway between the two groups. These key points were the proportion of patients having dry blood spot testing, the proportion of patients initiating HCV treatment, the proportion of patients completing the 8 or 12 week HCV course of treatment, and the proportion of patients with sustained virological response at 12 months. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02706223.

FINDINGS

56 pharmacies were randomly assigned (28 to each group; one pharmacy withdrew from the conventional care group). The 55 participating pharmacies included 2718 patients receiving opioid substitution therapy (1365 in the pharmacist-led care group and 1353 in the conventional care group). More patients met the primary endpoint of SVR12 in the pharmacist-led care group (98 [7%] of 1365) than in the conventional care group (43 [3%] of 1353; odds ratio 2·375, 95% CI 1·555-3·628, p<0·0001). More users of opioid substitution therapy in the pharmacist-led care group versus the conventional care group agreed to dry blood spot testing (245 [18%] of 1365 vs 145 [11%] of 1353, 2·292, 0·968-5·427, p=0·059); initiated treatment (112 [8%] of 1365 vs 61 [4%] of 1353, 1·889, 1·276-2·789, p=0·0015) and completed treatment (108 [8%] of 1365 vs 58 [4%] of 1353, 1·928, 1·321-2·813, p=0·0007). The data for sustained virological response at 12 months are not reported in this study: patients remain in follow-up for this outcome. No serious adverse events were recorded.

INTERPRETATION

Using pharmacists to deliver an HCV care pathway made testing and treatment more accessible for patients, improved engagement, and maintained high treatment success rates. The use of this pathway could be a key part of an integrated and effective approach to HCV elimination at a community level.

FUNDING

Partnership between the Scottish Government, Gilead Sciences, and Bristol-Myers Squib.

Dapagliflozin Versus Placebo on Left Ventricular Remodeling in Patients With Diabetes and Heart Failure: The REFORM Trial

OBJECTIVE

To determine the effects of dapagliflozin in patients with heart failure (HF) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) on left ventricular (LV) remodeling using cardiac MRI.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We randomized 56 patients with T2DM and HF with LV systolic dysfunction to dapagliflozin 10 mg daily or placebo for 1 year, on top of usual therapy. The primary end point was difference in LV end-systolic volume (LVESV) using cardiac MRI. Key secondary end points included other measures of LV remodeling and clinical and biochemical parameters.

RESULTS

In our cohort, dapagliflozin had no effect on LVESV or any other parameter of LV remodeling. However, it reduced diastolic blood pressure and loop diuretic requirements while increasing hemoglobin, hematocrit, and ketone bodies. There was a trend toward lower weight.

CONCLUSIONS

We were unable to determine with certainty whether dapagliflozin in patients with T2DM and HF had any effect on LV remodeling. Whether the benefits of dapagliflozin in HF are due to remodeling or other mechanisms remains unknown.

Sodium bicarbonate to improve physical function in patients over 60 years with advanced chronic kidney disease: the BiCARB RCT

BACKGROUND

Advanced chronic kidney disease is common in older people and is frequently accompanied by metabolic acidosis. Oral sodium bicarbonate is used to treat this acidosis, but evidence is lacking on whether or not this provides a net gain in health or quality of life for older people.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were to determine whether or not oral bicarbonate therapy improves physical function, quality of life, markers of renal function, bone turnover and vascular health compared with placebo in older people with chronic kidney disease and mild acidosis; to assess the safety of oral bicarbonate; and to establish whether or not oral bicarbonate therapy is cost-effective in this setting.

DESIGN

A parallel-group, double-blind, placebo-controlled randomised trial.

SETTING

The setting was nephrology and geriatric medicine outpatient departments in 27 UK hospitals.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants were adults aged ≥ 60 years with advanced chronic kidney disease (glomerular filtration rate category 4 or 5, not on dialysis) with a serum bicarbonate concentration of < 22 mmol/l.

INTERVENTIONS

Eligible participants were randomised 1 : 1 to oral sodium bicarbonate or matching placebo. Dosing started at 500 mg three times daily, increasing to 1 g three times daily if the serum bicarbonate concentration was < 22 mmol/l at 3 months.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was the between-group difference in the Short Physical Performance Battery score at 12 months, adjusted for baseline. Other outcome measures included generic and disease-specific health-related quality of life, anthropometry, 6-minute walk speed, grip strength, renal function, markers of bone turnover, blood pressure and brain natriuretic peptide. All adverse events were recorded, including commencement of renal replacement therapy. For the health economic analysis, the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year was the main outcome.

RESULTS

In total, 300 participants were randomised, 152 to bicarbonate and 148 to placebo. The mean age of participants was 74 years and 86 (29%) were female. Adherence to study medication was 73% in both groups. A total of 220 (73%) participants were assessed at the 12-month visit. No significant treatment effect was evident for the primary outcome of the between-group difference in the Short Physical Performance Battery score at 12 months (-0.4 points, 95% confidence interval -0.9 to 0.1 points; p = 0.15). No significant treatment benefit was seen for any of the secondary outcomes. Adverse events were more frequent in the bicarbonate arm (457 vs. 400). Time to commencement of renal replacement therapy was similar in both groups (hazard ratio 1.22, 95% confidence interval 0.74 to 2.02; p = 0.43). Health economic analysis showed higher costs and lower quality of life in the bicarbonate arm at 1 year, with additional costs of £564 (95% confidence interval £88 to £1154) and a quality-adjusted life-year difference of -0.05 (95% confidence interval -0.08 to -0.01); placebo dominated bicarbonate under all sensitivity analyses for incremental cost-effectiveness.

LIMITATIONS

The trial population was predominantly white and male, limiting generalisability. The increment in serum bicarbonate concentrations achieved was small and a benefit from larger doses of bicarbonate cannot be excluded.

CONCLUSIONS

Oral sodium bicarbonate did not improve a range of health measures in people aged ≥ 60 years with chronic kidney disease category 4 or 5 and mild acidosis, and is unlikely to be cost-effective for use in the NHS in this patient group. Once other current trials of bicarbonate therapy in chronic kidney disease are complete, an individual participant meta-analysis would be helpful to determine which subgroups, if any, are more likely to benefit and which treatment regimens are more beneficial.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN09486651 and EudraCT 2011-005271-16. The systematic review is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018112908.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 27. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Risk of acute kidney injury following community prescription of antibiotics: self-controlled case series

BACKGROUND

Development of acute kidney injury (AKI) following the use of antibiotics such as sulphonamides, trimethoprim and aminoglycosides is a frequently described phenomenon. More recently, an association between fluoroquinolone use and AKI has been suggested. The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk of AKI as an unintended consequence of commonly prescribed antibiotics in a large community cohort using a method that fully adjusts for underlying patient characteristics, including potential unmeasured confounders.

METHODS

A self-controlled case study was conducted and included all individuals aged 18 years and over in the Tayside region of Scotland who had a serum creatinine measured between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2012. AKI episodes were defined using the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes definition. Data on oral community-prescribed antibiotics (penicillins, cephalosporins, fluoroquinolones, sulphonamides and trimethoprim, macrolides and nitrofurantoin) were collected for all individuals. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for AKI associated with antibiotic exposure versus time periods without antibiotic exposure were calculated.

RESULTS

Combined use of sulphonamides, trimethoprim and nitrofurantoin rose by 47% and incidence of community-acquired AKI rose by 16% between 2008 and 2012. During the study period 12 777 individuals developed 14 900 episodes of AKI in the community, of which 68% was AKI Stage 1, 16% Stage 2 and 16% Stage 3. The IRR of AKI during any antibiotic use was 1.16 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10-1.23], and this was highest during sulphonamides or trimethoprim use; IRR 3.07 (95% CI 2.81-3.35). Fluoroquinolone and nitrofurantoin use was not associated with a significantly increased rate of AKI; IRR 1.13 (95% CI 0.94-1.35) and 1.16 (95% CI 0.91-1.50), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Incidence of AKI rose by 16% between 2008 and 2012. In the same period the use of sulphonamides, trimethoprim and nitrofurantoin increased by 47%. A significant increased risk of AKI was seen with the use of sulphonamides and trimethoprim, but not with fluoroquinolones or nitrofurantoin.

A feasibility study of microwave therapy for precancerous actinic keratosis

BACKGROUND

Actinic keratosis (AK) is a common premalignant skin lesion that can progress to cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC). Microwave therapy is an established cancer treatment and has been used for plantar viral warts.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the efficacy and feasibility of microwave as a treatment for AK.

METHODS

Stage I was a dose-setting study, in which seven participants had the dielectric properties of 12 thick and 22 thin AKs assessed for optimization of the microwave dose used for treatment in Stage II. Stage II was a randomized, internally controlled trial evaluating 179 AKs in 11 patients (93 treated, 86 untreated controls) on the scalp/forehead or dorsal hand. Participants received one treatment initially and a repeat treatment to unresolved AKs at week 4. The response was assessed at six visits over 4 months. The primary outcome was partial or complete resolution of the treated AKs.

RESULTS

A significantly higher proportion of treated AK areas responded than untreated (90% vs. 15%; P < 0·001). Thin AKs were more responsive than thick AKs. The site did not affect efficacy. Pain was severe, but brief (80% reported pain lasting 'a few seconds only'). Adverse effects were minimal (erythema, n = 6; flaking, n = 3; itch, n = 3). All participants who would chose microwave therapy over their current treatment cited the shorter discomfort period.

CONCLUSIONS

Microwave therapy is a portable, safe and effective treatment for AK. An easy-to-deliver, acceptable therapy for AK is attractive as a prevention strategy. While these results are promising, a larger randomized controlled trial is needed against an effective comparator to confirm clinical efficacy and patient acceptability. What is already known about this topic? Actinic keratoses (AKs) are common precancerous skin lesions. Successful treatment of AK can prevent cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC). Most topical therapies for AK require repeated application over weeks and drive local skin inflammation, leading to poor compliance. An easy-to-deliver and effective treatment for AK, suitable for use in primary care, could reduce cSCC. What does this study add? Microwave therapy is a feasible, effective treatment for AK. Ninety per cent of treated AKs showed full or partial resolution at 120 days post-treatment. Microwave therapy was painful, but the pain was short-lived (seconds) and this short discomfort period was cited as the main reason that microwave was preferred to their current treatment.

104 Oral Sodium Bicarbonate Therapy for Older Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease and Low-Grade Acidosis: The BiCARB Randomised Controlled Trial

Background

Oral sodium bicarbonate is often used to treat metabolic acidosis in older people with advanced chronic kidney disease, but evidence is lacking on whether this provides a net gain in health or quality of life.

Methods

We conducted a multicentre, parallel group, double-blind, placebo-controlled randomised trial. Adults aged 60 years and over with category 4 or 5 chronic kidney disease, not on dialysis, with serum bicarbonate concentrations &lt;22 mmol/L were recruited from 27 UK centres. Participants were randomised 1:1 to oral sodium bicarbonate or matching placebo. The primary outcome was the between-group difference in the Short Physical Performance Battery at 12 months, adjusted for baseline. Other key outcome measures included generic and disease-specific health-related quality of life, anthropometry, physical performance, renal function, adverse events including commencement of renal replacement therapy, and health economic analysis.

Results

We randomised 300 participants, mean age 74 years; 86 (29%) were female. Mean baseline estimated GFR was 19 ml/min/1.73m2. Study medication adherence was 73% in both groups. No significant treatment effect was evident for the primary outcome of the between-group difference in the Short Physical Performance Battery at 12 months (-0.4 points; 95% CI -0.9 to 0.1, p=0.15). No significant treatment benefit was seen for any of the secondary outcomes. Adverse events were more frequent in the bicarbonate arm (457 versus 400). Time to commencing renal replacement therapy was similar in both groups (HR 1.22, 95% CI 0.74 to 2.02, p=0.43). Health economic analysis showed lower quality of life and higher costs in the bicarbonate arm at one year (£1234 vs £807); placebo dominated bicarbonate under all sensitivity analyses for incremental cost-effectiveness.

Conclusions

Oral sodium bicarbonate did not improve a wide range of health measures in this trial, and is unlikely to be cost-effective for use in the UK NHS in this patient group.

Mode of presentation and skin thickening on ultrasound may predict nodal burden in breast cancer patients with a positive axillary core biopsy

OBJECTIVE

A number of pre-operative factors predicting nodal burden in females with breast cancer have recently been identified. The aim of this study is to assess if these factors independently influence nodal burden in females with a positive axillary core biopsy.

METHODS

All node positive patients detected on axillary core biopsy were identified in our cancer audit database. Mode of presentation, age, core tumour grade, core tumour type, ER and HER2 status were evaluated. Tumours were assessed for ultrasound size, distance of tumour-to-skin, presence of invasion of skin and diffuse skin thickening. Axillary lymph nodes were assessed for cortical thickness and presence of ultrasound replaced nodes. Statistical significance was ascertained using univariate logistic regression. A predictive model was produced following a multiple logistic regression model incorporating cross-validation and assessed using receiving operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS

115 patients' data were analysed. Patients referred because of symptoms (70% vs 38%, p = 0.005), and those with ultrasound skin thickening (87% vs 59%, p = 0.055) have higher nodal burden than those referred from screening or without skin thickening. These factors were significant after multivariate analysis. The final predictive model included mode of presentation, ultrasound tumour size, cortical thickness and presence of ultrasound skin thickening. The area under curve is 0.77.

CONCLUSION

We have shown that mode of presentation and ultrasound skin thickening are independent predictors of high nodal burden at surgery. A model has been developed to predict nodal burden pre-operatively, which may lead to avoidance of axillary node clearance in patients with lower nodal burden.

ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE

Method of presentation and skin involvement/proximity to skin by the primary tumour are known to influence outcome and nodal involvement respectively but have not been studied with regard to nodal burden. We have shown that mode of presentation and skin thickening at ultrasound are independent predictors of high nodal burden at surgery.

Cardiovascular Effects of Switching From Tobacco Cigarettes to Electronic Cigarettes

Background

E-cigarette (EC) use is increasing exponentially worldwide. The early cardiovascular effects of switching from tobacco cigarettes (TC) to EC in chronic smokers is unknown. Meta-analysis of flow-mediated dilation (FMD) studies indicate 13% lower pooled, adjusted relative risks of cardiovascular events with every 1% improvement in FMD.

Objectives

This study sought to determine the early vascular impact of switching from TC to EC in chronic smokers.

Methods

The authors conducted a prospective, randomized control trial with a parallel nonrandomized preference cohort and blinded endpoint of smokers ≥18 years of age who had smoked ≥15 cigarettes/day for ≥2 years and were free from established cardiovascular disease. Participants were randomized to EC with nicotine or EC without nicotine for 1 month. Those unwilling to quit continued with TC in a parallel preference arm. A propensity score analysis was done to adjust for differences between the randomized and preference arms. Vascular function was assessed by FMD and pulse wave velocity. Compliance with EC was measured by carbon monoxide levels.

Results

Within 1 month of switching from TC to EC, there was a significant improvement in endothelial function (linear trend β = 0.73%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.41 to 1.05; p < 0.0001; TC vs. EC combined: 1.49%; 95% CI: 0.93 to 2.04; p < 0.0001) and vascular stiffness (−0.529 m/s; 95% CI: −0.946 to −0.112; p = 0.014). Females benefited from switching more than males did in every between-group comparison. Those who complied best with EC switch demonstrated the largest improvement. There was no difference in vascular effects between EC with and without nicotine within the study timeframe.

Conclusions

TC smokers, particularly females, demonstrate significant improvement in vascular health within 1 month of switching from TC to EC. Switching from TC to EC may be considered a harms reduction measure. (Vascular Effects of Regular Cigarettes Versus Electronic Cigarette Use [VESUVIUS]; NCT02878421; ISRCTN59133298)

Exposure to contrast media in the perioperative period confers no additional risk of acute kidney injury in surgical patients

Background

Iodinated contrast media (CM) used in angiography and computed tomography (CT) scans is an important cause of acute kidney injury (AKI) in hospitalized patients undergoing surgery. Contrast-induced nephropathy leads to AKI soon after CM administration. The aim of the study was to determine whether the timing of contrast media exposure related to diagnostic imaging during the immediate perioperative period influences the risk of post-operative AKI.

Methods

All patients aged 18 years or above who underwent diagnostic imaging within 7 days of non-cardiac surgery between 1 January 2003 and 31 December 2013 in the Tayside region of Scotland, UK were included in the analysis. The primary outcome of AKI was defined using the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes creatinine-based criteria. Multiple logistic regressions were performed to identify predictors for AKI.

Results

Of 9300 patients, 6224 were exposed to CM in the immediate perioperative period and 3076 were not. Post-operative AKI occurred in 678 (10.9%) of the 6224 patients who were exposed to CM. On multiple logistic regression, independent predictors of post-operative AKI were increasing age, male gender, lower baseline renal function and treatment with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers. Timing of CM exposure did not affect risk of developing AKI, odds ratio 0.972 (95% confidence interval 0.935-1.010), P = 0.146.

Conclusions

For patients who have either just had or are soon to undergo general surgical procedures there appears to be no need to limit CT scan quality by avoiding the administration of CM. These patients may benefit from the increased diagnostic utility of contrast-enhanced CT scans without increasing their risk of perioperative AKI.

Intelligent liver function testing (iLFT): A trial of automated diagnosis and staging of liver disease in primary care

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Liver function tests (LFTs) are frequently requested blood tests which may indicate liver disease. LFTs are commonly abnormal, the causes of which can be complex and are frequently under investigated. This can lead to missed opportunities to diagnose and treat liver disease at an early stage. We developed an automated investigation algorithm, intelligent liver function testing (iLFT), with the aim of increasing the early diagnosis of liver disease in a cost-effective manner.

METHODS

We developed an automated system that further investigated abnormal LFTs on initial testing samples to generate a probable diagnosis and management plan. We integrated this automated investigation algorithm into the laboratory management system, based on minimal diagnostic criteria, liver fibrosis estimation, and reflex testing for causes of liver disease. This algorithm then generated a diagnosis and/or management plan. A stepped-wedged trial design was utilised to compare LFT outcomes in general practices in the 6 months before and after introduction of the iLFT system. Diagnostic outcomes were collated and compared.

RESULTS

Of eligible patients with abnormal LFTs, 490 were recruited to the control group and 64 were recruited to the intervention group. The primary diagnostic outcome was based on the general practitioner diagnosis, which agreed with the iLFT diagnosis in 67% of cases. In the iLFT group, the diagnosis of liver disease was increased by 43%. Additionally, there were significant increases in the rates of GP visits after diagnosis and the number of referrals to secondary care in the iLFT group. iLFT was cost-effective with a low initial incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £284 per correct diagnosis, and a saving to the NHS of £3,216 per patient lifetime.

CONCLUSIONS

iLFT increases liver disease diagnoses, improves quality of care, and is highly cost-effective. This can be achieved with minor changes to working practices and exploitation of functionality existing within modern laboratory diagnostics systems.

LAY SUMMARY

There is a growing epidemic of advanced liver disease, this could be offset by early detection and management. Checking liver blood tests (LFTs) should be an opportunity to diagnose liver problems, but abnormal results are often incompletely investigated. In this study we were able to substantially increase the diagnostic yield of the abnormal LFTs using the automated intelligent LFT system. With the addition of referral recommendations and management plans, this strategy provides optimum investigation and management of LFTs and is cost saving to the NHS.

Are antidementia drugs associated with reduced mortality after a hospital emergency admission in the population with dementia aged 65 years and older?

Introduction

People with dementia experience poor outcomes after hospital admission, with mortality being particularly high. There is no cure for dementia; antidementia medications have been shown to improve cognition and function, but their effect on mortality in real-world settings is little known. This study examines associations between treatment with antidementia medication and mortality in older people with dementia after an emergency admission.

Methods

The design is a retrospective cohort study of people aged ≥65 years, with a diagnosis of dementia and an emergency hospital admission between 01/01/2010 and 31/12/2016. Two classes of antidementia medication were considered: the acetylcholinesterase inhibitors and memantine. Mortality was examined using a Cox proportional hazards model with time-varying covariates for the prescribing of antidementia medication before or on admission and during one-year follow-up, adjusted for demographics, comorbidity, and community prescribing including anticholinergic burden. Propensity score analysis was examined for treatment selection bias.

Results

There were 9142 patients with known dementia included in this study, of which 45.0% (n = 4110) received an antidementia medication before or on admission; 31.3% (n = 2864) were prescribed one of the acetylcholinesterase inhibitors, 8.7% (n = 798) memantine, and 4.9% (n = 448) both. 32.9% (n = 1352) of these patients died in the year after admission, compared to 42.7% (n = 2148) of those with no antidementia medication on admission. The Cox model showed a significant reduction in mortality in patients treated with acetylcholinesterase inhibitors (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.78, 95% CI 0.72–0.85) or memantine (HR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.66–0.86) or both (HR = 0.76, 95% CI 0.68–0.94). Sensitivity analysis by propensity score matching confirmed the associations between antidementia prescribing and reduced mortality.

Discussion

Treatment with antidementia medication is associated with a reduction in risk of death in the year after an emergency hospital admission. Further research is required to determine if there is a causal relationship between treatment and mortality, and whether “symptomatic” therapy for dementia does have a disease-modifying effect.

•

Mortality in older people admitted with dementia is very high after an emergency hospital admission with about 40% of them dying within one year from admission.

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Less than half of patients admitted with dementia are in receipt of antidementia treatment on admission.

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Risk of death is reduced in patients treated with antidementia medication at the time of acute admission, which is not explained by their age, sex, comorbidities, or other drug prescribing.

Difficulties arising in reimbursement recommendations on new medicines due to inadequate reporting of population adjustment indirect comparison methods

Indirect treatment comparisons are useful to estimate relative treatment effects when head-to-head studies are not conducted. Statisticians at the National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics Ireland (NCPE) and Scottish Medicines Consortium (SMC) assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of new medicines as part of multidisciplinary teams. We describe some shared observations on areas where reporting of population-adjustment indirect comparison methods is causing uncertainty in our recommendations to decision-making committees when assessing reimbursement of medicines.

Effect of Vitamin K2 on Postural Sway in Older People Who Fall: A Randomized Controlled Trial

OBJECTIVES

Vitamin K is thought to be involved in both bone health and maintenance of neuromuscular function. We tested the effect of vitamin K2 supplementation on postural sway, falls, healthcare costs, and indices of physical function in older people at risk of falls.

DESIGN

Parallel‐group double‐blind randomized placebo‐controlled trial.

SETTING

Fourteen primary care practices in Scotland, UK.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 95 community‐dwelling participants aged 65 and older with at least two falls, or one injurious fall, in the previous year.

INTERVENTION

Once/day placebo, 200 μg or 400 μg of oral vitamin K2 for 1 year.

MEASUREMENTS

The primary outcome was anteroposterior sway measured using sway plates at 12 months, adjusted for baseline. Secondary outcomes included the Short Physical Performance Battery, Berg Balance Scale, Timed Up & Go Test, quality of life, health and social care costs, falls, and adverse events.

RESULTS

Mean participant age was 75 (standard deviation [SD] = 7) years. Overall, 58 of 95 (61%) were female; 77 of 95 (81%) attended the 12‐month visit. No significant effect of either vitamin K2 dose was seen on the primary outcome of anteroposterior sway (200 μg vs placebo: −.19 cm [95% confidence interval [CI] −.68 to .30; P = .44]; 400 μg vs placebo: .17 cm [95% CI −.33 to .66; P = .50]; or 400 μg vs 200 μg: .36 cm [95% CI −.11 to .83; P = .14]). Adjusted falls rates were similar in each group. No significant treatment effects were seen for other measures of sway or secondary outcomes. Costs were higher in both vitamin K2 arms than in the placebo arm.

CONCLUSION

Oral vitamin K2 supplementation did not improve postural sway or physical function in older people at risk of falls. J Am Geriatr Soc 67:2102–2107, 2019

Dynamic Lycra® orthoses as an adjunct to arm rehabilitation after stroke: a single-blind, two-arm parallel group, randomized controlled feasibility trial

Objective:

The aim of this study was to explore the feasibility of conducting a randomized controlled trial of dynamic Lycra^® orthoses as an adjunct to arm rehabilitation after stroke and to explore the magnitude and direction of change on arm outcomes.

Design:

This is a single-blind, two-arm parallel group, feasibility randomized controlled trial.

Setting:

In-patient rehabilitation.

Subjects:

The study participants were stroke survivors with arm hemiparesis two to four weeks after stroke receiving in-patient rehabilitation.

Interventions:

Participants were randomized 2:1 to wear Lycra^® gauntlets for eight hours daily for eight weeks, plus usual rehabilitation (n = 27), or to usual rehabilitation only (n = 16).

Main measures:

Recruitment, retention, fidelity, adverse events and completeness of data collection were examined at 8 and 16 weeks; arm function (activity limitation; Action Research Arm Test, Motor Activity Log) and impairment (Nine-hole Peg Test, Motricity Index, Modified Tardieu Scale). Structured interviews explored acceptability.

Results:

Of the target of 51, 43 (84%) participants were recruited. Retention at 8 weeks was 32 (79%) and 24 (56%) at 16 weeks. In total, 11 (52%) intervention group participants and 6 (50%) control group participants (odds ratio = 1.3, 95% confidence interval = 0.2 to 7.8) had improved Action Research Arm Test level by 8 weeks; at 16 weeks, this was 8 (61%) intervention and 6 (75.0%) control participants (odds ratio = 1.1, 95% confidence interval = 0.1 to 13.1). Change on other measures favoured control participants. Acceptability was influenced by 26 adverse reactions.

Conclusion:

Recruitment and retention were low, and adverse reactions were problematic. There were no indications of clinically relevant effects, but the small sample means definitive conclusions cannot be made. A definitive trial is not warranted without orthoses adaptation.

Serum sodium level variability as a prognosticator in older adults

Our aim was to explore biological variation of serum sodium levels as a method of quantifying health risk in older adults. We investigated whether dynamic changes in serum sodium levels could provide additional prognostic information to standard predictors of mortality in older people. Analysis of routinely collected clinical datasets containing information on demographics, hospitalisation, biochemistry, haematology and physical function for Dundee in-patient rehabilitation services, between 1999 and 2011. Older people admitted to inpatient rehabilitation following an acute medical or surgical hospitalisation. Five dynamic measures of sodium levels homeostasis - minimum, maximum, standard deviation, and minimum and maximum deviation from mean - were derived for each individual, using biochemistry data from the year preceding their rehabilitation discharge. Cox regression models tested for associations with time to death. Covariates included age, sex, discharge Barthel score, co-morbid diagnoses, haemoglobin, albumin and eGFR. 3021 patients were included (mean age 84 years, 1776 (58.8%) females). 1651 (54.7%) patients experienced hyponatraemia and 446 (14.8%) became hypernatraemic. Mean sodium was correlated with all mean, minimum and SD of sodium. Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that those without sodium perturbations had the best mortality outcomes, whilst those with both hyponatremia and hypernatremia had the worst. Multivariate Cox regression showed that standard deviation and hypernatraemia were significant predictors of death in non-adjusted models, but not fully adjusted models. All dynamic measures of dysnatraemia were associated with increased mortality risk, but failed to add predictive value to established static measures after adjusting for covariates.

Increased mortality and morbidity in patients with chronic hypoparathyroidism: A population-based study

OBJECTIVES

A population-based study was undertaken to determine the mortality and morbidity for people with hypoparathyroidism compared to the general population.

METHODS

In this study, patients identified with chronic hypoparathyroidism using data linkage from regional datasets were compared with five age- and gender-matched controls from the general population. Data from biochemistry, hospital admissions, prescribing and the demographic dataset were linked. Outcomes for mortality and specified conditions were examined for all patients and subdivided into post-surgical and non-surgical cases of hypoparathyroidism.

RESULTS

All patients had an increased risk of epilepsy (HR 1.65 [95% CI 1.12-2.44]) and cataracts (HR 2.10 [1.30-3.39]) but no increased fracture risk. Only non-surgical hypoparathyroid patients also had increased mortality (HR 2.11 [1.49-2.98]), cardiovascular disease (HR 2.18 [1.41-3.39]), cerebrovascular disease (HR 2.95 [1.46-5.97]), infection (HR 1.87 [1.2-2.92]) and mental illness (HR 1.59 [1.21-2.11]). There was an increased risk of renal failure (HR 10.05 [95% CI 4.71-21.43]) during the first 2000 days (5.5 years) of follow-up. Renal failure and death were associated with increasing serum calcium concentrations.

CONCLUSION

Patients with hypoparathyroidism have an increased risk of cataract and epilepsy. Non-surgical hypoparathyroidism is associated with increased mortality and additional morbidities.

Clinical effectiveness of pharmacy-led versus conventionally delivered antiviral treatment for hepatitis C in patients receiving opioid substitution therapy: a study protocol for a pragmatic cluster randomised trial

INTRODUCTION

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection affects 0.7% of the general population, and up to 40% of people prescribed opioid substitution therapy (OST) in Scotland. In conventional care, less than 10% of OST users are tested for HCV and less than 25% of these initiate treatment. Community pharmacists see this group frequently to provide OST supervision. This study examines whether a pharmacist-led 'test & treat' pathway increases cure rates for HCV.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This protocol describes a cluster-randomised trial where 60 community pharmacies provide either conventional or pharmacy-led care. All pharmacies offer dried blood spot testing (DBST) for HCV. Participants have attended the pharmacy for OST for 3 months; are positive for HCV genotype 1 or 3; are not co-infected with HIV and/or hepatitis B; have no decompensated liver disease; are not pregnant. For conventional care, pharmacists refer HCV-positive participants to a local centre for assessment. In the pharmacy-led arm, pharmacists assess participants themselves in the pharmacy. Drug prescribing is by nurse prescribers (conventional arm) or pharmacist prescribers (pharmacy-led arm). Treatment in both arms is delivered as daily modified directly observed therapy in a pharmacy. Primary trial outcome is number of sustained virological responses at 12 weeks after treatment completion. Secondary trial outcomes are number of tests taken; treatment uptake; completion; adherence; re-infection. An economic evaluation will assess potential cost-effectiveness. Qualitative research interviews with clients and health professionals assess acceptability of a pharmacist-led pathway.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This protocol has been ethically approved by the East of Scotland Research Ethics Committee 2 (15/ES/0086) and complies with the Declaration of Helsinki and principles of Good Clinical Practice. Caldicott guardian approval was given on 16 December 2016 to allow NHS Tayside to pass information to the cluster community pharmacies about the HCV test status of patients that they are seeing to provide OST supervision. NHS R&D approvals have been obtained from each health board taking part in the study. Informed consent is obtained before study enrolment and only anonymised data are stored in a secured database, enabling an audit trail. Results will be submitted to international peer-reviewed journals and presented at international conferences.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02706223; Pre-results.

Living at home after emergency hospital admission: prospective cohort study in older adults with and without cognitive spectrum disorder

BACKGROUND

Cognitive spectrum disorders (CSDs) are common in hospitalised older adults and associated with adverse outcomes. Their association with the maintenance of independent living has not been established. The aim was to establish the role of CSDs on the likelihood of living at home 30 days after discharge or being newly admitted to a care home.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study with routine data linkage was conducted based on admissions data from the acute medical unit of a district general hospital in Scotland. 5570 people aged ≥ 65 years admitted from a private residence who survived to discharge and received the Older Persons Routine Acute Assessment (OPRAA) during an incident emergency medical admission were included. The outcome measures were living at home, defined as a private residential address, 30 days after discharge and new care home admission at hospital discharge. Outcomes were ascertained through linkage to routine data sources.

RESULTS

Of the 5570 individuals admitted from a private residence who survived to discharge, those without a CSD were more likely to be living at home at 30 days than those with a CSD (93.4% versus 81.7%; difference 11.7%, 95%CI 9.7-13.8%). New discharge to a care home affected 236 (4.2%) of the cohort, 181 (76.7%) of whom had a CSD. Logistic regression modelling identified that all four CSD categories were associated with a reduced likelihood of living at home and an increased likelihood of discharge to a care home. Those with delirium superimposed on dementia were the least likely to be living at home (OR 0.25), followed by those with dementia (OR 0.43), then unspecified cognitive impairment (OR 0.55) and finally delirium (OR 0.57).

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals with a CSD are at significantly increased risk of not returning home after hospitalisation, and those with CSDs account for the majority of new admissions to care homes on discharge. Individuals with delirium superimposed on dementia are the most affected. We need to understand how to configure and deliver healthcare services to enable older people to remain as independent as possible for as long as possible and to ensure transitions of care are managed supportively.

Amputation-free survival in 17,353 people at high risk for foot ulceration in diabetes: a national observational study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Our aim was to investigate amputation-free survival in people at high risk for foot ulceration in diabetes ('high-risk foot'), and to compare different subcategories of high-risk foot.

METHODS

Overall, 17,353 people with diabetes and high-risk foot from January 2008 to December 2011 were identified from the Scotland-wide diabetes register (Scottish Care Information-Diabetes: N = 247,278). Participants were followed-up for up to 2 years from baseline and were categorised into three groups: (1) those with no previous ulcer, (2) those with an active ulcer or (3) those with a healed previous ulcer. Participants with prior minor or major amputation were excluded. Accelerated failure time models were used to compare amputation-free survival up to 2 years between the three exposure groups.

RESULTS

The 2 year amputation-free survival rate in all people with diabetes with high-risk foot was 84.5%. In this study group, 270 people (10.0%) had an amputation and 2424 (90.0%) died during the 2 year follow-up period. People who had active and healed previous ulcers at baseline had significantly lower 2 year amputation-free survival compared with those who had no previous ulcer (both p < 0.0001). The percentage of people who died within 2 years for those with healed ulcer, active ulcer or no baseline ulcer was 22.8%, 16% and 12.1%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

In people judged to be at high risk of foot ulceration, the risk of death was up to nine times the risk of amputation. Death rates were higher for people with diabetes who had healed ulcers than for those with active ulcers. However, people with active ulcers had the highest risk of amputation.

Mortality in people with dementia, delirium, and unspecified cognitive impairment in the general hospital: prospective cohort study of 6,724 patients with 2 years follow-up

Purpose

Cognitive impairment is common in older people admitted to hospital, but the outcomes are generally poorly understood, and previous research has shown inconsistent associations with mortality depending on the type of cognitive impairment examined and duration of follow-up. This study examines mortality in older people with any cognitive impairment during acute hospital admission.

Patients and methods

Prospective cohort of 6,724 people aged ≥65 years with a structured cognitive assessment on acute admission were included in this study. Cognitive spectrum disorder (CSD) was defined as delirium alone, known dementia alone, delirium superimposed on known dementia, or unspecified cognitive impairment. Mortality associated with different types of CSD was examined using a non-proportional hazards model with 2-year follow-up.

Results

On admission, 35.4% of patients had CSD, of which 52.6% died within 2 years. After adjustment for demographics and comorbidity, delirium alone was associated with increased mortality in the 6 months post-admission (HR =1.45, 95% CI 1.28-1.65) and again after 1 year (HR =1.44, 95% CI 1.17-1.77). Patients with known dementia (alone or with superimposed delirium) had increased mortality only after 3 months from admission (HR =1.85, 95% CI 1.56-2.18 and HR =1.80, 95% CI 1.52-2.14) compared with patients with unspecified cognitive impairment after 6 months (HR =1.55, 95% CI 1.21-1.99). Similar but partially attenuated associations were seen after adjustment for functional ability.

Conclusion

Mortality post-admission is high in older people with CSD. Immediate risk is highest in those with delirium, while dementia or unspecified cognitive impairment is associated with medium- to long-term risk. These findings suggest that individuals without dementia who develop delirium are more seriously ill (have required a larger acute insult in order to precipitate delirium) than those with pre-existing brain pathology (dementia). Further research to explain the mortality patterns observed is required in order to translate the findings into clinical care.

Association Between Objectively Measured Physical Activity and Opioid, Hypnotic, or Anticholinergic Medication Use in Older People: Data from the Physical Activity Cohort Scotland Study

BACKGROUND

Centrally acting medications cause cognitive slowing and incoordination, which could reduce older people's physical activity levels. This association has not been studied previously.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to examine the association between opioid, hypnotic and anticholinergic medication, and objectively measured physical activity, in a cohort of older people.

METHODS

We used data from the Physical Activity Cohort Scotland, a representative cohort of community-dwelling older people aged 65 years and over who were assessed at baseline and again 2-3 years later. Objective physical activity was measured using Stayhealthy RT3 accelerometers over 7 days. Baseline medication use (opioid use, hypnotic use, modified Anticholinergic Risk Scale [mARS]) was obtained from linked, routinely collected community prescribing records. Cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between baseline medication use and both baseline activity and change in activity over time were analysed using unadjusted and adjusted linear regression models.

RESULTS

Overall, 310 participants were included in the analysis; mean age 77 years (standard deviation 7). No association was seen between baseline use of any medication class and baseline physical activity levels in unadjusted or adjusted models. For change in activity over time, there was no difference between users and non-users of hypnotics or opioids. Higher anticholinergic burden was associated with a steeper decline in activity over the follow-up period (mARS 0: - 7051 counts/24 h/year; mARS 1-2: - 15,942 counts/24 h/year; mARS ≥ 3: - 19,544 counts/24 h/year; p = 0.03) and this remained robust to multiple adjustments.

CONCLUSION

Anticholinergic burden is associated with greater decline in objectively measured physical activity over time in older people, a finding not seen with hypnotic or opioid use.

Effect of two different participant information sheets on recruitment to a falls trial: An embedded randomised recruitment trial

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Recruitment to trials of intervention for older people who fall is challenging. Evidence suggests that the word falls has negative connotations for older people, and this may present a barrier to engaging with trials in this area. We therefore tested whether a participant information sheet that minimised reference to falls could improve recruitment rates.

METHODS

We conducted a study within a trial, embedded within a randomised controlled trial of vitamin K versus placebo to improve postural sway in patients aged 65 and over with a history of falls. Potential participants were identified from primary care lists in 14 practices and were randomised to receive either a standard participant information sheet or an information sheet minimising use of the word falls, instead focussing on maintenance of health, fitness and balance. The primary outcome for this embedded trial was the proportion of responses expressing interest in participating received in each arm. Secondary outcomes were the proportion of those contacted attending a screening visit, consenting at screening, and the proportion contacted who were randomised into the main trial.

RESULTS

In all, 4145 invitations were sent, with an overall response rate of 444 (10.7%). In all, 2148 individuals received the new information sheet (minimising reference to falls); 1997 received the standard information sheet. There was no statistically significant difference in response rate between those individuals sent the new information sheet and those sent the standard information sheet (10.1% vs 11.4%; difference 1.3% (95% confidence interval -0.6% to 3.2%); p = 0.19). Similarly, we found no statistically significant difference between the percentage of those who attended and consented at screening in the two groups (2.1% vs 2.7%; difference 0.6% (95% confidence interval: -0.4% to 1.6%); p = 0.20), and no statistically significant difference between the percentage randomised in the two groups (2.0% vs 2.6%; difference 0.6% (95% confidence interval -0.4% to 1.6%); p = 0.20).

CONCLUSIONS

Use of a participant information sheet minimising reference to falls did not lead to a greater response rate in this trial targeting older people with a history of falls.