Modeling geographic vaccination strategies for COVID-19 in Norway

Vaccination was a key intervention in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic globally. In early 2021, Norway faced significant regional variations in COVID-19 incidence and prevalence, with large differences in population density, necessitating efficient vaccine allocation to reduce infections and severe outcomes. This study explored alternative vaccination strategies to minimize health outcomes (infections, hospitalizations, ICU admissions, deaths) by varying regions prioritized, extra doses prioritized, and implementation start time. Using two models (individual-based and meta-population), we simulated COVID-19 transmission during the primary vaccination period in Norway, covering the first 7 months of 2021. We investigated alternative strategies to allocate more vaccine doses to regions with a higher force of infection. We also examined the robustness of our results and highlighted potential structural differences between the two models. Our findings suggest that early vaccine prioritization could reduce COVID-19 related health outcomes by 8% to 20% compared to a baseline strategy without geographic prioritization. For minimizing infections, hospitalizations, or ICU admissions, the best strategy was to initially allocate all available vaccine doses to fewer high-risk municipalities, comprising approximately one-fourth of the population. For minimizing deaths, a moderate level of geographic prioritization, with approximately one-third of the population receiving doubled doses, gave the best outcomes by balancing the trade-off between vaccinating younger people in high-risk areas and older people in low-risk areas. The actual strategy implemented in Norway was a two-step moderate level aimed at maintaining the balance and ensuring ethical considerations and public trust. However, it did not offer significant advantages over the baseline strategy without geographic prioritization. Earlier implementation of geographic prioritization could have more effectively addressed the main wave of infections, substantially reducing the national burden of the pandemic.

Association between face mask use and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection: Cross-sectional study

We examined the association between face masks and risk of infection with SARS-CoV-2 using cross-sectional data from 3,209 participants in a randomized trial exploring the effectiveness of glasses in reducing the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Face mask use was based on participants' response to the end-of-follow-up survey. We found that the incidence of self-reported COVID-19 was 33% (aRR 1.33; 95% CI 1.03-1.72) higher in those wearing face masks often or sometimes, and 40% (aRR 1.40; 95% CI 1.08-1.82) higher in those wearing face masks almost always or always, compared to participants who reported wearing face masks never or almost never. We believe the observed increase in the incidence of infection associated with wearing a face mask is likely due to unobservable and hence nonadjustable differences between those wearing and not wearing a mask. Observational studies reporting on the relationship between face mask use and risk of respiratory infections should be interpreted cautiously, and more randomized trials are needed.

Evaluation of the pilot wastewater surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in Norway, June 2022 - March 2023

BACKGROUND

During the COVID-19 pandemic, wastewater-based surveillance gained great international interest as an additional tool to monitor SARS-CoV-2. In autumn 2021, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health decided to pilot a national wastewater surveillance (WWS) system for SARS-CoV-2 and its variants between June 2022 and March 2023. We evaluated the system to assess if it met its objectives and its attribute-based performance.

METHODS

We adapted the available guidelines for evaluation of surveillance systems. The evaluation was carried out as a descriptive analysis and consisted of the following three steps: (i) description of the WWS system, (ii) identification of users and stakeholders, and (iii) analysis of the system's attributes and performance including sensitivity, specificity, timeliness, usefulness, representativeness, simplicity, flexibility, stability, and communication. Cross-correlation analysis was performed to assess the system's ability to provide early warning signal of new wave of infections.

RESULTS

The pilot WWS system was a national surveillance system using existing wastewater infrastructures from the largest Norwegian municipalities. We found that the system was sensitive, timely, useful, representative, simple, flexible, acceptable, and stable to follow the general trend of infection. Preliminary results indicate that the system could provide an early signal of changes in variant distribution. However, challenges may arise with: (i) specificity due to temporary fluctuations of RNA levels in wastewater, (ii) representativeness when downscaling, and (iii) flexibility and acceptability when upscaling the system due to limited resources and/or capacity.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results showed that the pilot WWS system met most of its surveillance objectives. The system was able to provide an early warning signal of 1-2 weeks, and the system was useful to monitor infections at population level and complement routine surveillance when individual testing activity was low. However, temporary fluctuations of WWS values need to be carefully interpreted. To improve quality and efficiency, we recommend to standardise and validate methods for assessing trends of new waves of infection and variants, evaluate the WWS system using a longer operational period particularly for new variants, and conduct prevalence studies in the population to calibrate the system and improve data interpretation.

Outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Norway, November to December 2021

In late November 2021, an outbreak of Omicron SARS-CoV-2 following a Christmas party with 117 attendees was detected in Oslo, Norway. We observed an attack rate of 74% and most cases developed symptoms. As at 13 December, none have been hospitalised. Most participants were 30-50 years old. Ninety-six percent of them were fully vaccinated. These findings corroborate reports that the Omicron variant may be more transmissible, and that vaccination may be less effective in preventing infection compared with Delta.

The effectiveness of syndromic surveillance for the early detection of waterborne outbreaks: a systematic review

Background

Waterborne outbreaks are still a risk in high-income countries, and their early detection is crucial to limit their societal consequences. Although syndromic surveillance is widely used for the purpose of detecting outbreaks days earlier than traditional surveillance systems, evidence of the effectiveness of such systems is lacking. Thus, our objective was to conduct a systematic review of the effectiveness of syndromic surveillance to detect waterborne outbreaks.

Method

We searched the Cochrane Library, Medline/PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, and Web of Science for relevant published articles using a combination of the keywords ‘drinking water’, ‘surveillance’, and ‘waterborne disease’ for the period of 1990 to 2018. The references lists of the identified articles for full-text record assessment were screened, and searches in Google Scholar using the same key words were conducted. We assessed the risk of bias in the included articles using the ROBINS-I tool and PRECEPT for the cumulative body of evidence.

Results

From the 1959 articles identified, we reviewed 52 articles, of which 18 met the eligibility criteria. Twelve were descriptive/analytical studies, whereas six were simulation studies. There is no clear evidence for syndromic surveillance in terms of the ability to detect waterborne outbreaks (low sensitivity and high specificity). However, one simulation study implied that multiple sources of signals combined with spatial information may increase the timeliness in detecting a waterborne outbreak and reduce false alarms.

Conclusion

This review demonstrates that there is no conclusive evidence on the effectiveness of syndromic surveillance for the detection of waterborne outbreaks, thus suggesting the need to focus on primary prevention measures to reduce the risk of waterborne outbreaks. Future studies should investigate methods for combining health and environmental data with an assessment of needed financial and human resources for implementing such surveillance systems. In addition, a more critical thematic narrative synthesis on the most promising sources of data, and an assessment of the basis for arguments that joint analysis of different data or dimensions of data (e.g. spatial and temporal) might perform better, should be carried out.

Trial registration

PROSPERO: International prospective register of systematic reviews. 2019. CRD42019122332.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06387-y.

Measles vaccine coverage among children born to Somali immigrants in Norway

Background

Despite overall good vaccination coverage in many countries, vaccine hesitancy has hindered full coverage and exposed groups to the risk of outbreaks. Somali immigrant groups have been known to have low measles vaccination coverage, leading to outbreaks in their communities. Current research indicates a general lack of trust in the healthcare system, the use of alternative information sources and inadequate health literacy can be contributing factors. We explore measles vaccine coverage in children born to Somali parents in Norway, whether it has changed over time and factors that may influence coverage.

Methods

Data was extracted from the National Population Register on all children born in Norway from 2000 to 2016, where both parents originated from Somalia. Date of birth, gender, residential area at birth and date of immigration and emigration for both parents was linked to information on measles vaccination from the National Immunisation Register.

Results

We found that children born to Somali immigrants in Norway had suboptimal measles vaccine coverage at 2 years; for children born in 2016 the coverage was 85%. Coverage declined between 2000 and 2016, and at a greater rate for boys than girls. Children born to mothers residing in Norway for 6 years or more had lower coverage compared to those with mothers residing less than 2 years prior to their birth. Children born in the capital and surrounding county had significantly lower coverage than children born elsewhere in Norway.

Discussion

New targeted interventions are needed to improve measles vaccine coverage among Somali immigrants in Norway. Some possible strategies include using Somali social media platforms, improving communication with Somali parents and tighter cooperation between various countries’ vaccination programmes.

An outbreak of skin rash traced to a portable floating tank in Norway, May 2017

Despite concerns about infection risks of floating tanks, outbreaks have rarely been reported. In May 2017, an outbreak of skin rash occurred among visitors of a floating tank open for the public in Norway. We assessed the extent and cause of the outbreak and the risk factors for infection in a retrospective cohort study among the visitors of the floating tank using a standardized web-based questionnaire. An environmental investigation was conducted including microbiological analysis of the floating tank water. Of the 46 respondents to the questionnaire (61 distributed), 22 reported symptoms, most commonly palmar and plantar rash, swollen lymph nodes, ear canal pain and itching. None of the investigated risk factors, such as sex, age, duration of bathing or use of the shower after bathing, were significantly associated with illness. The results of the environmental investigation indicated that the water was heavily contaminated by P. aeruginosa and heterotrophic bacteria. The outbreak investigation highlights the need to ensure adequate hygienic operation of floating tanks. Awareness about responsibilities should be raised among the operators of floating tanks and relevant operational parameters for floating tanks should be made available for local health authorities.

The establishment and first experiences of a crisis advisory service for water supplies in Norway

Water supply systems, in particular small-scale water supply systems, are vulnerable to adverse events that may jeopardise safe drinking water. The consequences of contamination events or the failure of daily operations may be severe, affecting many people. In Norway, a 24-hour crisis advisory service was established in 2017 to provide advice on national water supplies. Competent and expert advisors from water suppliers throughout the country assist other water suppliers and individuals who may be in need of advice during an adverse event. This paper describes the establishment of this service and experiences from the first three years of its operation. Since the launch of the service, water suppliers across Norway have consulted it approximately one to two times a month for advice, in particular about contamination events and near misses. The outcomes have helped to improve guidance on water hygiene issues at the national level.

Infectious diseases among patients at the Health Centre for Undocumented Migrants in Oslo

BACKGROUND

Undocumented migrants probably fall outside the scope of public infectious disease control schemes. The article aims to describe the extent of undetected highly hazardous communicable diseases among patients at the Health Centre for Undocumented Migrants in Oslo.

MATERIAL AND METHOD

We reviewed the records of all patients who attended the Health Centre for the first time in 2016 or 2017, with a view to age, sex, period of stay in Norway, country category and infection test results from the period 1 January 2016-31 December 2017.

RESULTS

There were four new cases of hepatitis B among 139 patients tested, and four cases of chlamydia infection among 38 patients tested. There were no new cases of active pulmonary tuberculosis, syphilis, HIV infection or hepatitis C.

INTERPRETATION

There were fewer cases of highly hazardous communicable diseases than what might be expected based on the countries from which the patients originated.

Compliance with water advisories after water outages in Norway

Background

Water advisories, especially those concerning boiling drinking water, are widely used to reduce risks of infection from contaminants in the water supply. Since the effectiveness of boil water advisories (BWAs) depends on public compliance, monitoring the public response to such advisories is essential for protecting human health. However, assessments of public compliance with BWAs remain sparse. Thus, this study was aimed at investigating awareness and compliance among residents who had received BWAs in Baerum municipality in Norway.

Method

We conducted a cross-sectional study among 2764 residents who had received water advisories by SMS in the municipality of Baerum between January and September 2017. We analysed data from two focus group discussions and an online survey sent to all residents who had received an advisory. We conducted descriptive analyses and calculated odds ratios (OR) using logistic regression to identify associations of compliance and awareness with demographic characteristics.

Results

Of the 611 respondents, 67% reported that they had received a water advisory notification. Effective compliance rate with safe drinking water practices, either by storing clean drinking water or boiling tap water, after a water outage was 72% among those who remembered receiving a notification. Compliance with safe drinking water advisories was lower among men than women (OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.29–0.96), but was independent of age, education and household type. The main reason for respondents’ non-compliance with safe water practices was that they perceived the water to be safe to drink after letting it flush through the tap until it became clear.

Conclusions

Awareness of advisories was suboptimal among residents who had received notifications, but compliance was high. The present study highlights the need to improve the distribution, phrasing and content of water advisory notifications to achieve greater awareness and compliance. Future studies should include hard-to-reach groups with adequate data collection approaches and examine the use of BWAs in a national context to inform future policies on BWAs.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-019-7504-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Immigrant screening for latent tuberculosis infection: numbers needed to test and treat, a Norwegian population-based cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the number needed to screen (NNS) and the number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent one tuberculosis (TB) case in the Norwegian immigrant latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) screening programme and to explore the effect of delay of LTBI treatment initiation.

DESIGN

Population-based, prospective cohort study.

PARTICIPANTS

Immigrants to Norway.

OUTCOME

Incident TB.

METHODS

We obtained aggregated data on immigration to Norway in 2008-2011 and used data from the Norwegian Surveillance System for Infectious Diseases to assess the number of TB cases arising in this cohort within 5 years after arrival. We calculated the average NNS and NNT for immigrants from the top 10 source countries for TB in Norway and by estimated TB incidence rates in source countries. We explored the sensitivity of these estimates with regard to test performance, treatment efficacy and treatment adherence using an extreme value approach, and assessed the effects of emigration, time to TB diagnosis (to define incident TB) and intervention timing.

RESULTS

NNS and NNT were overall high, with substantial variation. NNT showed numerically stronger negative correlation with TB notification rate in Norway (-0.75 [95% CI -1.00 to -0.44]) than with the WHO incidence rate (IR) (-0.32 [95% CI -0.93 to 0.29]). NNT was affected substantially by emigration and the definition of incident TB. Estimates were lowest for Somali (NNS 99 [70-150], NNT 27 [19-41]) and highest for Thai immigrants (NNS 585 [413-887], NNT 111 [79-116]). Implementing LTBI treatment in immigrants sooner after arrival may improve the effectiveness of the programme.

CONCLUSION

Using TB notifications in Norway, rather than IR in source countries, would improve targeting of immigrants for LTBI management. However, the overall high NNT is a concern and challenges the scale-up of preventive LTBI treatment for significant public health impact. Better data are urgently needed to monitor and evaluate NNS and NNT in countries implementing LTBI screening.

Pandemic vaccination strategies and influenza severe outcomes during the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic and the post-pandemic influenza season: the Nordic experience

During the 2009/10 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic, the five Nordic countries adopted different approaches to pandemic vaccination. We compared pandemic vaccination strategies and severe influenza outcomes, in seasons 2009/10 and 2010/11 in these countries with similar influenza surveillance systems. We calculated the cumulative pandemic vaccination coverage in 2009/10 and cumulative incidence rates of laboratory confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 infections, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and deaths in 2009/10 and 2010/11. We estimated incidence risk ratios (IRR) in a Poisson regression model to compare those indicators between Denmark and the other countries. The vaccination coverage was lower in Denmark (6.1%) compared with Finland (48.2%), Iceland (44.1%), Norway (41.3%) and Sweden (60.0%). In 2009/10 Denmark had a similar cumulative incidence of A(H1N1)pdm09 ICU admissions and deaths compared with the other countries. In 2010/11 Denmark had a significantly higher cumulative incidence of A(H1N1)pdm09 ICU admissions (IRR: 2.4; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.9-3.0) and deaths (IRR: 8.3; 95% CI: 5.1-13.5). Compared with Denmark, the other countries had higher pandemic vaccination coverage and experienced less A(H1N1)pdm09-related severe outcomes in 2010/11. Pandemic vaccination may have had an impact on severe influenza outcomes in the post-pandemic season. Surveillance of severe outcomes may be used to compare the impact of influenza between seasons and support different vaccination strategies.

Denominators count: supplementing surveillance data for genital Chlamydia trachomatis infection with testing data, Norway, 2007 to 2013

As genital Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia) infection is often asymptomatic, surveillance of diagnosed cases is heavily influenced by the rate and distribution of testing. In 2007, we started supplementing case-based surveillance data from the Norwegian Surveillance System for Communicable Diseases (MSIS) with aggregated data on age group and sex of individuals tested. In this report, annual testing rates, diagnosis rates and proportion positive for chlamydia in Norway between 1990 and 2013 are presented. From 2007, rates are also stratified by age group and sex. The annual testing rate for chlamydia culminated in the early 1990s, with 8,035 tested per 100,000 population in 1991. It then declined to 5,312 per 100,000 in 2000 after which it remained relatively stable. Between 1990 and 2013 the annual rate of diagnosed cases increased 1.5 times from ca 300 to ca 450 per 100,000 population. The proportion of positive among the tested rose twofold from ca 4% in the 1990s to 8% in 2013. Data from 2007 to 2013 indicate that more women than men were tested (ratio: 2.56; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.56-2.58) and diagnosed (1.54; 95% CI: 1.52-1.56). Among tested individuals above 14 years-old, the proportion positive was higher in men than women for all age groups. Too many tests are performed in women aged 30 years and older, where 49 of 50 tests are negative. Testing coverage is low (15%) among 15 to 24 year-old males. Information on sex and age-distribution among the tested helps to interpret surveillance data and provides indications on how to improve targeting of testing for chlamydia. Regular prevalence surveys may address remaining limitations of surveillance.

The quality of denominator data in surgical site infection surveillance versus administrative data in Norway 2005-2010

Background

High quality of surveillance systems for surgical site infections (SSIs) is the key to their usefulness. The Norwegian Surveillance System for Antibiotic Consumption and Healthcare-Associated Infections (NOIS) was introduced by regulation in 2005, and is based largely on automated extraction of data from underlying systems in the hospitals.

Methods

This study investigates the quality of NOIS-SSI’s denominator data by evaluating completeness, representativeness and accuracy compared with de-identified administrative data for 2005–2010. Comparisons were made by region, hospital type and size, age and sex for 4 surgical procedures.

Results

The completeness of NOIS improved from 29.2 % in 2005 to 79.8 % in 2010. NOIS-SSI became representative over time for most procedures by hospital size and type, but not by region. It was representative by age and sex for all years and procedures. Accuracy was good for all years and procedures by all explanatory variables.

Conclusions

A flexible and incremental implementation strategy has encouraged the development of computer-based surveillance systems in the hospitals which gives good accuracy, but the same strategy has adversely affected the completeness and representativeness of the denominator data. For the purpose of evaluating risk factors and implementing prevention and precautionary measures in the individual hospitals, representativeness seems sufficient, but for benchmarking and/or public reporting it is not good enough.

Transmission of HIV Drug Resistance and the Predicted Effect on Current First-line Regimens in Europe

Transmitted human immunodeficiency virus drug resistance in Europe is stable at around 8%. The impact of baseline mutation patterns on susceptibility to antiretroviral drugs should be addressed using clinical guidelines. The impact on baseline susceptibility is largest for nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors.

Background. Numerous studies have shown that baseline drug resistance patterns may influence the outcome of antiretroviral therapy. Therefore, guidelines recommend drug resistance testing to guide the choice of initial regimen. In addition to optimizing individual patient management, these baseline resistance data enable transmitted drug resistance (TDR) to be surveyed for public health purposes. The SPREAD program systematically collects data to gain insight into TDR occurring in Europe since 2001.

Methods. Demographic, clinical, and virological data from 4140 antiretroviral-naive human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–infected individuals from 26 countries who were newly diagnosed between 2008 and 2010 were analyzed. Evidence of TDR was defined using the WHO list for surveillance of drug resistance mutations. Prevalence of TDR was assessed over time by comparing the results to SPREAD data from 2002 to 2007. Baseline susceptibility to antiretroviral drugs was predicted using the Stanford HIVdb program version 7.0.

Results. The overall prevalence of TDR did not change significantly over time and was 8.3% (95% confidence interval, 7.2%–9.5%) in 2008–2010. The most frequent indicators of TDR were nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) mutations (4.5%), followed by nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) mutations (2.9%) and protease inhibitor mutations (2.0%). Baseline mutations were most predictive of reduced susceptibility to initial NNRTI-based regimens: 4.5% and 6.5% of patient isolates were predicted to have resistance to regimens containing efavirenz or rilpivirine, respectively, independent of current NRTI backbones.

Conclusions. Although TDR was highest for NRTIs, the impact of baseline drug resistance patterns on susceptibility was largest for NNRTIs. The prevalence of TDR assessed by epidemiological surveys does not clearly indicate to what degree susceptibility to different drug classes is affected.

Surgical site infections after hip arthroplasty in Norway, 2005-2011: influence of duration and intensity of postdischarge surveillance

BACKGROUND

Most surgical site infections (SSIs) after hip arthroplasty are detected after a patient is discharged from hospital, making postdischarge surveillance (PDS) an important component in surveillance systems. We investigated how long it was necessary to monitor hip arthroplasty patients for SSIs after hospital discharge and if passive PDS through readmissions could replace active PDS by patient questionnaire in detecting SSIs.

METHODS

We used data from the Norwegian surveillance system from 2005-2011, which has active 1-year PDS, to investigate proportions of SSIs found at different time intervals after surgery and whether these SSIs could have been detected through passive PDS by investigating the proportion of patients with SSIs that were readmitted.

RESULTS

We found that 79% of all SSIs and 82% of deep SSIs were detected after hospital discharge. 95% of deep SSIs were detected within 90 days after surgery. 14% of the deep SSIs were detected beyond 30 days after surgery, and all of these patients were readmitted because of their SSI and thus could have been detected by passive PDS.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data suggest that most deep SSIs are detected within 90 days and that passive PDS beyond 30 days after surgery may replace active PDS without reducing sensitivity.

Implications of screening and childcare exclusion policies for children with Shiga-toxin producing Escherichia coli infections: lessons learned from an outbreak in a daycare centre, Norway, 2012

Background

In Norway, it is recommended that children with Shiga-Toxin producing Escherichia coli (STEC) infections are excluded from daycare centers until up to five consecutive negative stool cultures are obtained. Children with gastrointestinal illness of unknown etiology are asked to remain home for 48 hours after symptoms subside. On 16 October 2012, two cases of STEC infection were reported from a daycare center, where other children were also symptomatic. Local health authorities temporarily closed the daycare center and all children and staff were screened for pathogenic E. coli. We present the results of the outbreak investigation in order to discuss the implications of screening and the exclusion policies for children attending daycare in Norway.

Methods

Stool specimens for all children (n = 91) and employees at the daycare center (n = 40) were tested for pathogenic E. coli. Information on demographics, symptoms and potential exposures was collected from parents through trawling interviews and a web-based questionnaire. Cases were monitored to determine the duration of shedding and the resulting exclusion period from daycare.

Results

We identified five children with stx1- and eae-positive STEC O103:H2 infections, and one staff member and one child with STEC O91:H- infections. Three additional children who tested positive for stx1 and eae genes were considered probable STEC cases. Three cases were asymptomatic. Median length of time of exclusion from daycare for STEC cases was 53 days (range 9 days – 108 days). Survey responses for 75 children revealed mild gastrointestinal symptoms among both children with STEC infections and children with negative microbiological results. There was no evidence of common exposures; person-to-person transmission was likely.

Conclusions

The results of screening indicate that E. coli infections can spread in daycare centres, reflected in the proportion of children with STEC and EPEC infections. While screening can identify asymptomatic cases, the implications should be carefully considered as it can produce unanticipated results and have significant socioeconomic consequences. Daycare exclusion policies should be reviewed to address the management of prolonged asymptomatic shedders.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-014-0673-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Methodology of the Norwegian Surveillance System for Healthcare-Associated Infections: the value of a mandatory system, automated data collection, and active postdischarge surveillance

BACKGROUND

Surveillance is a primary component of systems for the prevention of health care-associated infections (HCAI). Feedback to surgeons from these surveillance systems may reduce rates of surgical site infections (SSIs) by approximately 20%.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to describe the Norwegian Surveillance System for Healthcare-Associated Infections' (NOIS) module for SSI (NOIS-SSI) and to evaluate the completeness of hospital participation, the effectiveness of automated data collection, and the added value of follow-up after hospital discharge during 2005 to 2009.

METHODS

NOIS was introduced by regulation in 2005. Hospital participation is described through adherence to the mandatory requirements and participation in the voluntary aspects of the system. Automated data collection is evaluated through the completeness of reporting of explanatory and administrative variables. The impact of active postdischarge surveillance is assessed through the completeness of follow-up and the proportion of infections detected after hospital discharge.

RESULTS

The system has achieved 95% (52/55) hospital participation, with 65% (34/52) of the hospitals submitting more data than the required minimum. The completeness of patient and procedure-related background data is satisfactory, with 23.3% (5,079/21,772) of the records having at least 1 missing value. The completeness of 30-day follow-up of patients is 90.7% (19,747/21,772), and 81% (765/948) of the infections were detected after discharge from hospital.

CONCLUSION

Implementation of a new surveillance system for SSI has been successful evaluated through hospital participation, the completeness of reporting of explanatory and administrative variables, and the completeness of postdischarge follow-up. Important success factors are a mandatory system, automated data-harvesting systems in hospitals, and active postdischarge surveillance.

Counting pandemic deaths: comparing reported numbers of deaths from influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 with estimated excess mortality

BACKGROUND

During the wave 1 of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus, Norway appeared to be suffering from high mortality rates. However, by the end of the pandemic, it was widely reported that the number of deaths were much lower than previous years.

OBJECTIVES

The mortality burden from influenza is often assessed by two different approaches: counting influenza-certified deaths and estimating the mortality burden using models. The purpose of this study is to compare the number of reported deaths with results from two different models for estimating excess mortality during the pandemic in Norway. Additionally, mortality estimates for the pandemic season are compared with non-pandemic influenza seasons.

METHODS

Numbers on reported influenza A(N1h1)pdm09 deaths are gived by the Cause of Death Registry at Statistics Norway and an ad hoc registry at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. Overall and Pnemumonia and Influenza certified mortality is modeled using Poission regression, adjusting for levels of reported influenza-like illness and seasonal and year-to-year variation.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

Modelling results suggest that the excess mortality in older age groups is considerably lower during the pandemic than non-pandemic seasons, but there are indications of an excess beyond what was reported during the pandemic. This highlights the benefits of both methods and the importance of explaining where these numbers come from.

Trends in HIV infection surveillance data among men who have sex with men in Norway, 1995-2011

BACKGROUND

Recent reports on the growing HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the EU/EEA area were accompanied by an increase of reported HIV among MSM in Oslo, Norway in 2003. Our study with data from 1995 to 2011 has described the recent trends of HIV among MSM in Norway and their socio-demographic and epidemiological characteristics.

METHODS

The data were collected from the Norwegian Surveillance System for Communicable Diseases. Cases were described by age, place of infection, clinical presentation of HIV infection, STI co-infection and source partner. We used simple linear regression to estimate trends over time.

RESULTS

During the study period, 991 MSM, aged from 16 to 80 years, were newly diagnosed with HIV. No significant trends over time in overall median age (36 years) were observed. Most of the MSM (505, 51%) were infected in Oslo. In the years 1995-2002, 30 to 45 MSM were diagnosed with HIV each year, while in the years 2003-2011 this increased to between 56 and 97 cases. The proportion of MSM, presenting with either AIDS or HIV illness, decreased over time, while asymptomatic and acute HIV illness increased (p for trend=0.034 or less). STI co-infection was reported in 133 (13%) cases. An overall increase of syphilis co-infected cases was observed (p for trend <0.001). A casual partner was a source of infection in 590 cases (60%).

CONCLUSIONS

Though the increases described could be attributed to earlier testing and diagnosis, no change in the median age of cases was observed. This indicates that it is likely that there has been an increase in HIV infections among MSM in Norway since 2003. The simultaneous increase in STI co-infections indicates risky sexual behaviour and a potential to spread both HIV and other sexually transmitted infections.

Risk of fetal death after pandemic influenza virus infection or vaccination

BACKGROUND

During the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, pregnant women were at risk for severe influenza illness. This concern was complicated by questions about vaccine safety in pregnant women that were raised by anecdotal reports of fetal deaths after vaccination.

METHODS

We explored the safety of influenza vaccination of pregnant women by linking Norwegian national registries and medical consultation data to determine influenza diagnosis, vaccination status, birth outcomes, and background information for pregnant women before, during, and after the pandemic. We used Cox regression models to estimate hazard ratios for fetal death, with the gestational day as the time metric and vaccination and pandemic exposure as time-dependent exposure variables.

RESULTS

There were 117,347 eligible pregnancies in Norway from 2009 through 2010. Fetal mortality was 4.9 deaths per 1000 births. During the pandemic, 54% of pregnant women in their second or third trimester were vaccinated. Vaccination during pregnancy substantially reduced the risk of an influenza diagnosis (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.25 to 0.34). Among pregnant women with a clinical diagnosis of influenza, the risk of fetal death was increased (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.07 to 3.41). The risk of fetal death was reduced with vaccination during pregnancy, although this reduction was not significant (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.66 to 1.17).

CONCLUSIONS

Pandemic influenza virus infection in pregnancy was associated with an increased risk of fetal death. Vaccination during pregnancy reduced the risk of an influenza diagnosis. Vaccination itself was not associated with increased fetal mortality and may have reduced the risk of influenza-related fetal death during the pandemic. (Funded by the Norwegian Institute of Public Health.).

Systematic screening with information and home sampling for genital Chlamydia trachomatis infections in young men and women in Norway: a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

As most genital Chlamydia trachomatis infections are asymptomatic, many patients do not seek health care for testing. Infections remain undiagnosed and untreated. We studied whether screening with information and home sampling resulted in more young people getting tested, diagnosed and treated for chlamydia in the three months following the intervention compared to the current strategy of testing in the health care system.

METHOD

We conducted a population based randomized controlled trial among all persons aged 18-25 years in one Norwegian county (41 519 persons). 10 000 persons (intervention) received an invitation by mail with chlamydia information and a mail-back urine sampling kit. 31 519 persons received no intervention and continued with usual care (control). All samples from both groups were analysed in the same laboratory. Information on treatment was obtained from the Norwegian Prescription Database (NorPD). We estimated risk ratios and risk differences of being tested, diagnosed and treated in the intervention group compared to the control group.

RESULTS

In the intervention group 16.5% got tested and in the control group 3.4%, risk ratio 4.9 (95% CI 4.5-5.2). The intervention led to 2.6 (95% CI 2.0-3.4) times as many individuals being diagnosed and 2.5 (95% CI 1.9-3.4) times as many individuals receiving treatment for chlamydia compared to no intervention in the three months following the intervention.

CONCLUSION

In Norway, systematic screening with information and home sampling results in more young people being tested, diagnosed and treated for chlamydia in the three months following the intervention than the current strategy of testing in the health care system. However, the study has not established that the intervention will reduce the chlamydia prevalence or the risk of complications from chlamydia.

Population based study of genital Chlamydia trachomatis prevalence and associated factors in Norway: a cross sectional study

Background

The number of diagnosed cases of Chlamydia trachomatis infection has been increasing in the past years in Norway although the testing rate has been relatively stable. The aim of this study was to measure the prevalence of genital Chlamydia trachomatis in young men and women in one county in Norway and determine associated factors in order to better target preventive measures.

Methods

We mailed to a random sample of 10 000 persons aged 18–25 in Rogaland county a mail-back urine sample kit and a self-administered questionnaire with questions on socio-demographic details, health seeking behaviour and symptoms of and history of sexually transmitted diseases. Associations between current Clamydia trachomatis infection and the above mentioned factors were studied by multiple logistic regression.

Results

The response rate among women was 18.9% (930/4923) and 11.9% (605/5077) among men. The prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis infection was 5.8% (95% CI 4.5-6.8) among women and 5.1% (95% CI 3.8-6.8) among men. For men a greater number of partners during the last year (p for trend < 0.001), and living in a municipality without a local youth clinic increased the odds of infection (OR 8.6, 95% CI 2.2-33.9). For women a greater number of partners during the last year (p < 0.001) and not having consulted a family doctor for STIs (OR 2.1 95% CI 1.1-4.2) were positively associated with infection while not having a previous Chlamydia trachomatis diagnosis decreased the odds of having this infection (OR 0.3, 95% CI 0.2-0.7).

Conclusion

Our results indicate the importance of having a visible youth clinic in each municipality. It also suggests targeting women who have had a previous Chlamydia trachomatis infection diagnosed before.

Usefulness of health registries when estimating vaccine effectiveness during the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic in Norway

BACKGROUND

During the 2009-2010 pandemic in Norway, 12 513 laboratory-confirmed cases of pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, were reported to the Norwegian Surveillance System for Communicable Diseases (MSIS). 2.2 million persons (45% of the population) were vaccinated with an AS03-adjuvanted monovalent vaccine during the pandemic. Most of them were registered in the Norwegian Immunisation Registry (SYSVAK). Based on these registries, we aimed at estimating the vaccine effectiveness (VE) and describing vaccine failures during the pandemic in Norway, in order to evaluate the role of the vaccine as a preventive measure during the pandemic.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study, linking MSIS and SYSVAK with pandemic influenza vaccination as exposure and laboratory-confirmed pandemic influenza as outcome. We measured VE by week and defined two thresholds for immunity; eight and 15 days after vaccination.

RESULTS

The weekly VE ranged from 77% to 96% when considering 15 days or more after vaccination as the threshold of immunity and from 73% to 94% when considering eight days or more. Overall, 157 individuals contracted pandemic influenza eight or more days after vaccination (8.4/100,000 vaccinated), of these 58 had onset 15 days or more after vaccination (3.0/100,000 vaccinated). Most of the vaccine failures occurred during the first weeks of the vaccination campaign. More than 30% of the vaccine failures were found in people below 10 years of age.

CONCLUSIONS

Having available health registries with data regarding cases of specific disease and vaccination makes it feasible to estimate VE in a simple and rapid way. VE was high regardless the immunity threshold chosen. We encourage public health authorities in other countries to set up such registries. It is also important to consider including information on underlying diseases in registries already existing, in order to make it feasible to conduct more complete VE estimations.