Forest productivity recovery or collapse? Model-data integration insights on drought-induced tipping points

More frequent and severe droughts are driving increased forest mortality around the globe. We urgently need to describe and predict how drought affects forest carbon cycling and identify thresholds of environmental stress that trigger ecosystem collapse. Quantifying the effects of drought at an ecosystem level is complex because dynamic climate-plant relationships can cause rapid and/or prolonged shifts in carbon balance. We employ the CARbon DAta MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) to investigate legacy effects of drought on forest carbon pools and fluxes. Our Bayesian model-data fusion approach uses tower observed meteorological forcing and carbon fluxes to determine the response and sensitivity of aboveground and belowground ecological processes associated with the 2012-2015 California drought. Our study area is a mid-montane mixed conifer forest in the Southern Sierras. CARDAMOM constrained with gross primary productivity (GPP) estimates covering 2011-2017 show a ~75% reduction in GPP, compared to negligible GPP change when constrained with 2011 only. Precipitation across 2012-2015 was 45% (474 mm) lower than the historical average and drove a cascading depletion in soil moisture and carbon pools (foliar, labile, roots, and litter). Adding 157 mm during an especially stressful year (2014, annual rainfall = 293 mm) led to a smaller depletion of water and carbon pools, steering the ecosystem away from a state of GPP tipping-point collapse to recovery. We present novel process-driven insights that demonstrate the sensitivity of GPP collapse to ecosystem foliar carbon and soil moisture states-showing that the full extent of GPP response takes several years to arise. Thus, long-term changes in soil moisture and carbon pools can provide a mechanistic link between drought and forest mortality. Our study provides an example for how key precipitation threshold ranges can influence forest productivity, making them useful for monitoring and predicting forest mortality events.

Can an introduced predator select for adaptive sex allocation?

Most species produce equal numbers of sons and daughters, and sex differences in survival after parental care do not usually affect this pattern. Temporary overproduction of the scarcer sex can be adaptive when generations overlap, the sexes differ in life-history expectations, and parents can anticipate future mating opportunities. However, an alternative strategy of maximizing the competitiveness of the more abundant sex in these circumstances remains unexplored. We develop theory showing how mothers can maximize reproductive value when future mate competition will be high by producing more sons in the advantageous early hatching positions within their broods. Our model for optimal birth order was supported by long-term data of offspring sex in a parrot facing catastrophic female mortality caused by introduced predators. Swift parrots (Lathamus discolor) suffer high female mortality due to introduced sugar gliders (Petaurus breviceps) creating fluctuating male-biased adult sex ratios. Offspring hatched early within broods fledged in better condition, and in support of our model were more likely to be male in years with higher adult female mortality. We found a highly significant rank-order correlation between observed and predicted birth sex ratios. Our study shows the potential for mothers to maximize reproductive value via strategic biases in offspring sex depending on the advantages conferred by birth order and the predictability of future mate competition. Our long-term data support the predictions and appear to suggest that sex allocation strategies may evolve surprisingly quickly when anthropogenic pressures on populations are severe.

Surgical dissection of capillary hemangiomas. An alternative to intralesional corticosteroids

Intralesional corticosteroids are often successful in reducing the size of functionally significant capillary hemangiomas. While they may have a better benefit-risk ratio than some earlier treatment methods, a number of serious complications have been reported recently. We believe these resulted from the hemodynamic continuity of capillary hemangiomas with the orbital and systemic circulation and that intralesional injections are intravascular. Surgery has generally been avoided because capillary hemangiomas are not encapsulated and piecemeal resection can produce significant bleeding. In carefully selected patients, we have used a surgical approach that involves dissection on the tumor's surface without entering its substance. Hemangiomas were removed en bloc from five patients with insignificant blood loss and excellent anatomic restoration.