Meditation for the primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND

Interventions incorporating meditation to address stress, anxiety, and depression, and improve self-management, are becoming popular for many health conditions. Stress is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and clusters with other modifiable behavioural risk factors, such as smoking. Meditation may therefore be a useful CVD prevention strategy.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the effectiveness of meditation, primarily mindfulness-based interventions (MBIs) and transcendental meditation (TM), for the primary and secondary prevention of CVD.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, three other databases, and two trials registers on 14 November 2021, together with reference checking, citation searching, and contact with study authors to identify additional studies.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of 12 weeks or more in adults at high risk of CVD and those with established CVD. We explored four comparisons: MBIs versus active comparators (alternative interventions); MBIs versus non-active comparators (no intervention, wait list, usual care); TM versus active comparators; TM versus non-active comparators.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We used standard Cochrane methods. Our primary outcomes were CVD clinical events (e.g. cardiovascular mortality), blood pressure, measures of psychological distress and well-being, and adverse events. Secondary outcomes included other CVD risk factors (e.g. blood lipid levels), quality of life, and coping abilities. We used GRADE to assess the certainty of evidence.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 81 RCTs (6971 participants), with most studies at unclear risk of bias. MBIs versus active comparators (29 RCTs, 2883 participants) Systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure were reported in six trials (388 participants) where heterogeneity was considerable (SBP: MD -6.08 mmHg, 95% CI -12.79 to 0.63, I2 = 88%; DBP: MD -5.18 mmHg, 95% CI -10.65 to 0.29, I2 = 91%; both outcomes based on low-certainty evidence). There was little or no effect of MBIs on anxiety (SMD -0.06 units, 95% CI -0.25 to 0.13; I2 = 0%; 9 trials, 438 participants; moderate-certainty evidence), or depression (SMD 0.08 units, 95% CI -0.08 to 0.24; I2 = 0%; 11 trials, 595 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Perceived stress was reduced with MBIs (SMD -0.24 units, 95% CI -0.45 to -0.03; I2 = 0%; P = 0.03; 6 trials, 357 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). There was little to no effect on well-being (SMD -0.18 units, 95% CI -0.67 to 0.32; 1 trial, 63 participants; low-certainty evidence). There was little to no effect on smoking cessation (RR 1.45, 95% CI 0.78 to 2.68; I2 = 79%; 6 trials, 1087 participants; low-certainty evidence). None of the trials reported CVD clinical events or adverse events. MBIs versus non-active comparators (38 RCTs, 2905 participants) Clinical events were reported in one trial (110 participants), providing very low-certainty evidence (RR 0.94, 95% CI 0.37 to 2.42). SBP and DBP were reduced in nine trials (379 participants) but heterogeneity was substantial (SBP: MD -6.62 mmHg, 95% CI -13.15 to -0.1, I2 = 87%; DBP: MD -3.35 mmHg, 95% CI -5.86 to -0.85, I2 = 61%; both outcomes based on low-certainty evidence). There was low-certainty evidence of reductions in anxiety (SMD -0.78 units, 95% CI -1.09 to -0.41; I2 = 61%; 9 trials, 533 participants; low-certainty evidence), depression (SMD -0.66 units, 95% CI -0.91 to -0.41; I2 = 67%; 15 trials, 912 participants; low-certainty evidence) and perceived stress (SMD -0.59 units, 95% CI -0.89 to -0.29; I2 = 70%; 11 trials, 708 participants; low-certainty evidence) but heterogeneity was substantial. Well-being increased (SMD 0.5 units, 95% CI 0.09 to 0.91; I2 = 47%; 2 trials, 198 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). There was little to no effect on smoking cessation (RR 1.36, 95% CI 0.86 to 2.13; I2 = 0%; 2 trials, 453 participants; low-certainty evidence). One small study (18 participants) reported two adverse events in the MBI group, which were not regarded as serious by the study investigators (RR 5.0, 95% CI 0.27 to 91.52; low-certainty evidence). No subgroup effects were seen for SBP, DBP, anxiety, depression, or perceived stress by primary and secondary prevention. TM versus active comparators (8 RCTs, 830 participants) Clinical events were reported in one trial (201 participants) based on low-certainty evidence (RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.56 to 1.49). SBP was reduced (MD -2.33 mmHg, 95% CI -3.99 to -0.68; I2 = 2%; 8 trials, 774 participants; moderate-certainty evidence), with an uncertain effect on DBP (MD -1.15 mmHg, 95% CI -2.85 to 0.55; I2 = 53%; low-certainty evidence). There was little or no effect on anxiety (SMD 0.06 units, 95% CI -0.22 to 0.33; I2 = 0%; 3 trials, 200 participants; low-certainty evidence), depression (SMD -0.12 units, 95% CI -0.31 to 0.07; I2 = 0%; 5 trials, 421 participants; moderate-certainty evidence), or perceived stress (SMD 0.04 units, 95% CI -0.49 to 0.57; I2 = 70%; 3 trials, 194 participants; very low-certainty evidence). None of the trials reported adverse events or smoking rates. No subgroup effects were seen for SBP or DBP by primary and secondary prevention. TM versus non-active comparators (2 RCTs, 186 participants) Two trials (139 participants) reported blood pressure, where reductions were seen in SBP (MD -6.34 mmHg, 95% CI -9.86 to -2.81; I2 = 0%; low-certainty evidence) and DBP (MD -5.13 mmHg, 95% CI -9.07 to -1.19; I2 = 18%; very low-certainty evidence). One trial (112 participants) reported anxiety and depression and found reductions in both (anxiety SMD -0.71 units, 95% CI -1.09 to -0.32; depression SMD -0.48 units, 95% CI -0.86 to -0.11; low-certainty evidence). None of the trials reported CVD clinical events, adverse events, or smoking rates.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Despite the large number of studies included in the review, heterogeneity was substantial for many of the outcomes, which reduced the certainty of our findings. We attempted to address this by presenting four main comparisons of MBIs or TM versus active or inactive comparators, and by subgroup analyses according to primary or secondary prevention, where there were sufficient studies. The majority of studies were small and there was unclear risk of bias for most domains. Overall, we found very little information on the effects of meditation on CVD clinical endpoints, and limited information on blood pressure and psychological outcomes, for people at risk of or with established CVD. This is a very active area of research as shown by the large number of ongoing studies, with some having been completed at the time of writing this review. The status of all ongoing studies will be formally assessed and incorporated in further updates.

The potential impact of policies and structural interventions in reducing cardiovascular disease and mortality: a systematic review of simulation-based studies

Background

The aim of the study was to investigate the potential effect of different structural interventions for preventing cardiovascular disease.

Methods

Medline and EMBASE were searched for peer-reviewed simulation-based studies of structural interventions for prevention of cardiovascular disease. We performed a systematic narrative synthesis.

Results

A total of 54 studies met the inclusion criteria. Diet, nutrition, tobacco and alcohol control and other programmes are among the policy simulation models explored. Food tax and subsidies, healthy food and lifestyles policies, palm oil tax, processed meat tax, reduction in ultra-processed foods, supplementary nutrition assistance programmes, stricter food policy and subsidised community-supported agriculture were among the diet and nutrition initiatives. Initiatives to reduce tobacco and alcohol use included a smoking ban, a national tobacco control initiative and a tax on alcohol. Others included the NHS Health Check, WHO 25 × 25 and air quality management policy.

Future work and limitations

There is significant heterogeneity in simulation models, making comparisons of output data impossible. While policy interventions typically include a variety of strategies, none of the models considered possible interrelationships between multiple policies or potential interactions. Research that investigates dose-response interactions between numerous modifications as well as longer-term clinical outcomes can help us better understand the potential impact of policy-level interventions.

Conclusions

The reviewed studies underscore the potential of structural interventions in addressing cardiovascular diseases. Notably, interventions in areas such as diet, tobacco, and alcohol control demonstrate a prospective decrease in cardiovascular incidents. However, to realize the full potential of such interventions, there is a pressing need for models that consider the interplay and cumulative impacts of multiple policies. Rigorous research into holistic and interconnected interventions will pave the way for more effective policy strategies in the future.

Study registration

The study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019154836.

Funding

This article presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme as award number 17/148/05.

Advancing leadership in surgery: a realist review of interventions and strategies to promote evidence-based leadership in healthcare

BACKGROUND

Healthcare systems invest in leadership development of surgeons, surgical trainees, and teams. However, there is no agreement on how interventions should be designed, or what components they must contain to be successful. The objective of this realist review was to generate a programme theory explaining in which context and for whom surgical leadership interventions work and why.

METHODS

Five databases were systematically searched, and articles screened against inclusion considering their relevance. Context-mechanism-outcome configurations (CMOCs) and fragments of CMOCs were identified. Gaps in the CMOCs were filled through deliberation with the research team and stakeholder feedback. We identified patterns between CMOCs and causal relationships to create a programme theory.

RESULTS

Thirty-three studies were included and 19 CMOCs were developed. Findings suggests that interventions for surgeons and surgical teams improve leadership if timely feedback is delivered on multiple occasions and by trusted and respected people. Negative feedback is best provided privately. Feedback from senior-to-junior or peer-to-peer should be delivered directly, whereas feedback from junior-to-senior is preferred when delivered anonymously. Leadership interventions were shown to be most effective for those with awareness of the importance of leadership, those with confidence in their technical surgical skills, and those with identified leadership deficits. For interventions to improve leadership in surgery, they need to be delivered in an intimate learning environment, consider implementing a speak-up culture, provide a variety of interactive learning activities, show a genuine investment in the intervention, and be customised to the needs of surgeons. Leadership of surgical teams can be best developed by enabling surgical teams to train together.

CONCLUSIONS

The programme theory provides evidence-based guidance for those who are designing, developing and implementing leadership interventions in surgery. Adopting the recommendations will help to ensure interventions are acceptable to the surgical community and successful in improving surgical leadership.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The review protocol is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021230709).

In which context and for whom can interventions improve leadership of surgical trainees, surgeons and surgical teams and why: a realist review protocol

Background

Improving effective leadership of individuals, groups, and healthcare organisations is essential for improving surgical performance and indirectly improving health outcomes for patients. Numerous systematic reviews have been conducted which seek to determine the effectiveness of specific leadership interventions across a range of disciplines and healthcare outcomes. The purpose of this realist review is to systematically synthesise the literature which examines in which context and for whom leadership interventions improve leadership of surgeons, surgical teams, and trainees.

Methods

Several approaches will be used to iteratively search the scientific and grey literature to identify relevant evidence. Selected articles will inform the development of a programme theory that seeks to explain in which context and for whom interventions can improve leadership of surgical trainees, surgeons, and surgical teams. Next, empirical studies will be searched systematically in order to test and, where necessary, refine the theory. Once theoretical saturation has been achieved, recommendations for advancing leadership in surgery will be developed. Stakeholder and patient and public consultations will contribute to the development of the programme theory. The review will be written up according to the Realist And Meta-narrative Evidence Synthesis: Evolving Standards publication standards. No ethical review will be required for the conduct of this realist review.

Discussion

The knowledge gained from this review will provide evidence-based guidance for those planning or designing leadership interventions in surgery. The recommendations will help policymakers, educationalists, healthcare providers, and those delivering or planning leadership development programmes across the surgical disciplines to design interventions that are acceptable to the surgical community and successful in improving surgical leadership.PROSPERO registration: CRD42021230709.

Optimizing Moxifloxacin Dose in MDR-TB Participants with or without Efavirenz Coadministration Using Population Pharmacokinetic Modeling

Moxifloxacin is included in some treatment regimens for drug-sensitive tuberculosis (TB) and multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB). Aiming to optimize dosing, we described moxifloxacin pharmacokinetic and MIC distribution in participants with MDR-TB. Participants enrolled at two TB hospitals in South Africa underwent intensive pharmacokinetic sampling approximately 1 to 6 weeks after treatment initiation. Plasma drug concentrations and clinical data were analyzed using nonlinear mixed-effects modeling with simulations to evaluate doses for different scenarios. We enrolled 131 participants (54 females), with median age of 35.7 (interquartile range, 28.5 to 43.5) years, median weight of 47 (42.0 to 54.0) kg, and median fat-free mass of 40.1 (32.3 to 44.7) kg; 79 were HIV positive, 29 of whom were on efavirenz-based antiretroviral therapy. Moxifloxacin pharmacokinetics were described with a 2-compartment model, transit absorption, and elimination via a liver compartment. We included allometry based on fat-free mass to estimate disposition parameters. We estimated an oral clearance for a typical patient to be 17.6 L/h. Participants treated with efavirenz had increased clearance, resulting in a 44% reduction in moxifloxacin exposure. Simulations predicted that, even at a median MIC of 0.25 (0.06 to 16) mg/L, the standard daily dose of 400 mg has a low probability of attaining the ratio of the area under the unbound concentration-time curve from 0 to 24 h to the MIC (fAUC_0-24)/MIC target of >53, particularly in heavier participants. The high-dose WHO regimen (600 to 800 mg) yielded higher, more balanced exposures across the weight ranges, with better target attainment. When coadministered with efavirenz, moxifloxacin doses of up to 1,000 mg are needed to match these exposures. The safety of higher moxifloxacin doses in clinical settings should be confirmed.

Determining optimal strategies for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: systematic review of cost-effectiveness analyses in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. The aim of the study was to guide researchers and commissioners of cardiovascular disease preventative services towards possible cost-effective interventions by reviewing published economic analyses of interventions for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease, conducted for or within the UK NHS.

METHODS

In January 2021, electronic searches of MEDLINE and Embase were carried out to find economic evaluations of cardiovascular disease preventative services. We included fully published economic evaluations (including economic models) conducted alongside randomised controlled trials of any form of intervention that was aimed at the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease, including, but not limited to, drugs, diet, physical activity and public health. Full systematic review methods were used with predetermined inclusion/exclusion criteria, data extraction and formal quality appraisal [using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards checklist and the framework for the quality assessment of decision analytic modelling by Philips et al. (Philips Z, Ginnelly L, Sculpher M, Claxton K, Golder S, Riemsma R, et al. Review of guidelines for good practice in decision-analytic modelling in health technology assessment. Health Technol Assess 2004;8(36)].

RESULTS

Of 4351 non-duplicate citations, eight articles met the review's inclusion criteria. The eight articles focused on health promotion (n = 3), lipid-lowering medicine (n = 4) and blood pressure-lowering medication (n = 1). The majority of the populations in each study had at least one risk factor for cardiovascular disease or were at high risk of cardiovascular disease. For the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease, all strategies were cost-effective at a threshold of £25,000 per quality-adjusted life-year, except increasing motivational interviewing in addition to other behaviour change strategies. Where the cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained was reported, interventions varied from dominant (i.e. less expensive and more effective than the comparator intervention) to £55,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained.

FUTURE WORK AND LIMITATIONS

We found few health economic analyses of interventions for primary cardiovascular disease prevention conducted within the last decade. Future economic assessments should be undertaken and presented in accordance with best practices so that future reviews may make clear recommendations to improve health policy.

CONCLUSIONS

It is difficult to establish direct comparisons or draw firm conclusions because of the uncertainty and heterogeneity among studies. However, interventions conducted for or within the UK NHS were likely to be cost-effective in people at increased risk of cardiovascular disease when compared with usual care or no intervention.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in Health Technology Assessment. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Increasing comprehensiveness and reducing workload in a systematic review of complex interventions using automated machine learning

BACKGROUND

As part of our ongoing systematic review of complex interventions for the primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases, we have developed and evaluated automated machine-learning classifiers for title and abstract screening. The aim was to develop a high-performing algorithm comparable to human screening.

METHODS

We followed a three-phase process to develop and test an automated machine learning-based classifier for screening potential studies on interventions for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. We labelled a total of 16,611 articles during the first phase of the project. In the second phase, we used the labelled articles to develop a machine learning-based classifier. After that, we examined the performance of the classifiers in correctly labelling the papers. We evaluated the performance of the five deep-learning models [i.e. parallel convolutional neural network ( CNN ), stacked CNN , parallel-stacked CNN , recurrent neural network ( RNN ) and CNN-RNN]. The models were evaluated using recall, precision and work saved over sampling at no less than 95% recall.

RESULTS

We labelled a total of 16,611 articles, of which 676 (4.0%) were tagged as 'relevant' and 15,935 (96%) were tagged as 'irrelevant'. The recall ranged from 51.9% to 96.6%. The precision ranged from 64.6% to 99.1%. The work saved over sampling ranged from 8.9% to as high as 92.1%. The best-performing model was parallel CNN , yielding a 96.4% recall, as well as 99.1% precision, and a potential workload reduction of 89.9%.

FUTURE WORK AND LIMITATIONS

We used words from the title and the abstract only. More work needs to be done to look into possible changes in performance, such as adding features such as full document text. The approach might also not be able to be used for other complex systematic reviews on different topics.

CONCLUSION

Our study shows that machine learning has the potential to significantly aid the labour-intensive screening of abstracts in systematic reviews of complex interventions. Future research should concentrate on enhancing the classifier system and determining how it can be integrated into the systematic review workflow.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in Health Technology Assessment. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Perioperative oxygen therapy: a protocol for an overview of systematic reviews and meta-analyses

BACKGROUND

Oxygen is routinely given to patients during and after surgery. Perioperative oxygen administration has been proposed as a potential strategy to prevent and treat hypoxaemia and reduce complications, such as surgical site infections, pulmonary complications and mortality. However, uncertainty exists as to which strategies in terms of amount, delivery devices and timing are clinically effective. The aim of this overview of systematic reviews and meta-analyses is to answer the research question, 'For which types of surgery, at which stages of care, in which sub-groups of patients and delivered under what conditions are different types of perioperative oxygen therapy clinically effective?'.

METHODS

We will search key electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, CENTRAL, Epistemonikos, PROSPERO, the INAHTA International HTA Database and DARE archives) for systematic reviews and randomised controlled trials comparing perioperative oxygen strategies. Each review will be mapped according to type of surgery, surgical pathway timepoints and clinical comparison. The highest quality reviews with the most comprehensive and up-to-date coverage of relevant literature will be chosen as anchoring reviews. Standardised data will be extracted from each chosen review, including definition of oxygen therapy, summaries of interventions and comparators, patient population, surgical characteristics and assessment of overall certainty of evidence. For clinical outcomes and adverse events, the overall pooled findings and results of subgroup and sensitivity analyses (where available) will be extracted. Trial-level data will be extracted for surgical site infections, mortality, and potential trial-level effect modifiers such as risk of bias, outcome definition and type of surgery to facilitate quantitative data analysis. This analysis will adopt a multiple indication review approach with panoramic meta-analysis using review-level data and meta-regression using trial-level data. An evidence map will be produced to summarise our findings and highlight any research gaps.

DISCUSSION

There is a need to provide a panoramic overview of systematic reviews and meta-analyses describing peri-operative oxygen practice to both inform clinical practice and identify areas of ongoing uncertainty, where further research may be required. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42021272361.

Rapid antigen detection and molecular tests for group A streptococcal infections for acute sore throat: systematic reviews and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Sore throat is a common condition caused by an infection of the airway. Most cases are of a viral nature; however, a number of these infections may be caused by the group A Streptococcus bacterium. Most viral and bacterial sore throat infections resolve spontaneously within a few weeks. Point-of-care testing in primary care has been recognised as an emerging technology for aiding targeted antibiotic prescribing for sore throat in cases that do not spontaneously resolve.

OBJECTIVE

Systematically review the evidence for 21 point-of-care tests for detecting group A Streptococcus bacteria and develop a de novo economic model to compare the cost-effectiveness of point-of-care tests alongside clinical scoring tools with the cost-effectiveness of clinical scoring tools alone for patients managed in primary care and hospital settings.

DATA SOURCES

Multiple electronic databases were searched from inception to March 2019. The following databases were searched in November and December 2018 and searches were updated in March 2019: MEDLINE [via OvidSP (Health First, Rockledge, FL, USA)], MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations (via OvidSP), MEDLINE Epub Ahead of Print (via OvidSP), MEDLINE Daily Update (via OvidSP), EMBASE (via OvidSP), Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews [via Wiley Online Library (John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, NJ, USA)], Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (via Wiley Online Library), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) (via Centre for Reviews and Dissemination), Health Technology Assessment database (via the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination), Science Citation Index and Conference Proceedings [via the Web of Science™ (Clarivate Analytics, Philadelphia, PA, USA)] and the PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (via the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination).

REVIEW METHODS

Eligible studies included those of people aged ≥ 5 years presenting with sore throat symptoms, studies comparing point-of-care testing with antibiotic-prescribing decisions, studies of test accuracy and studies of cost-effectiveness. Quality assessment of eligible studies was undertaken. Meta-analysis of sensitivity and specificity was carried out for tests with sufficient data. A decision tree model estimated costs and quality-adjusted life-years from an NHS and Personal Social Services perspective.

RESULTS

The searches identified 38 studies of clinical effectiveness and three studies of cost-effectiveness. Twenty-six full-text articles and abstracts reported on the test accuracy of point-of-care tests and/or clinical scores with biological culture as a reference standard. In the population of interest (patients with Centor/McIsaac scores of ≥ 3 points or FeverPAIN scores of ≥ 4 points), point estimates were 0.829 to 0.946 for sensitivity and 0.849 to 0.991 for specificity. There was considerable heterogeneity, even for studies using the same point-of-care test, suggesting that is unlikely that any single study will have accurately captured a test's true performance. There is some randomised controlled trial evidence to suggest that the use of rapid antigen detection tests may help to reduce antibiotic-prescribing rates. Sensitivity and specificity estimates for each test in each age group and care setting combination were obtained using meta-analyses where appropriate. Any apparent differences in test accuracy may not be attributable to the tests, and may have been caused by known differences in the studies, latent characteristics or chance. Fourteen of the 21 tests reviewed were included in the economic modelling, and these tests were not cost-effective within the current National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's cost-effectiveness thresholds. Uncertainties in the cost-effectiveness estimates included model parameter inputs and assumptions that increase the cost of testing, and the penalty for antibiotic overprescriptions.

LIMITATIONS

No information was identified for the elderly population or pharmacy setting. It was not possible to identify which test is the most accurate owing to the paucity of evidence.

CONCLUSIONS

The systematic review and the cost-effectiveness models identified uncertainties around the adoption of point-of-care tests in primary and secondary care settings. Although sensitivity and specificity estimates are promising, we have little information to establish the most accurate point-of-care test. Further research is needed to understand the test accuracy of point-of-care tests in the proposed NHS pathway and in comparable settings and patient groups.

STUDY REGISTRATION

The protocol of the review is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018118653.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 31. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Testing strategies for Lynch syndrome in people with endometrial cancer: systematic reviews and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Lynch syndrome is an inherited genetic condition that is associated with an increased risk of certain cancers. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence has recommended that people with colorectal cancer are tested for Lynch syndrome. Routine testing for Lynch syndrome among people with endometrial cancer is not currently conducted.

OBJECTIVES

To systematically review the evidence on the test accuracy of immunohistochemistry- and microsatellite instability-based strategies to detect Lynch syndrome among people who have endometrial cancer, and the clinical effectiveness and the cost-effectiveness of testing for Lynch syndrome among people who have been diagnosed with endometrial cancer.

DATA SOURCES

Searches were conducted in the following databases, from inception to August 2019 - MEDLINE ALL, EMBASE (both via Ovid), Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (both via Wiley Online Library), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, Health Technology Assessment Database (both via the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination), Science Citation Index, Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Science (both via Web of Science), PROSPERO international prospective register of systematic reviews (via the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination), NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry, EconPapers (Research Papers in Economics) and School of Health and Related Research Health Utilities Database. The references of included studies and relevant systematic reviews were also checked and experts on the team were consulted.

REVIEW METHODS

Eligible studies included people with endometrial cancer who were tested for Lynch syndrome using immunohistochemistry- and/or microsatellite instability-based testing [with or without mutL homologue 1 (MLH1) promoter hypermethylation testing], with Lynch syndrome diagnosis being established though germline testing of normal (non-tumour) tissue for constitutional mutations in mismatch repair. The risk of bias in studies was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 tool, the Consolidated Health Economic Reporting Standards and the Philips' checklist. Two reviewers independently conducted each stage of the review. A meta-analysis of test accuracy was not possible because of the number and heterogeneity of studies. A narrative summary of test accuracy results was provided, reporting test accuracy estimates and presenting forest plots. The economic model constituted a decision tree followed by Markov models for the impact of colorectal and endometrial surveillance, and aspirin prophylaxis with a lifetime time horizon.

RESULTS

The clinical effectiveness search identified 3308 studies; 38 studies of test accuracy were included. (No studies of clinical effectiveness of endometrial cancer surveillance met the inclusion criteria.) Four test accuracy studies compared microsatellite instability with immunohistochemistry. No clear difference in accuracy between immunohistochemistry and microsatellite instability was observed. There was some evidence that specificity of immunohistochemistry could be improved with the addition of methylation testing. There was high concordance between immunohistochemistry and microsatellite instability. The economic model indicated that all testing strategies, compared with no testing, were cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. Immunohistochemistry with MLH1 promoter hypermethylation testing was the most cost-effective strategy, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £9420 per quality-adjusted life-year. The second most cost-effective strategy was immunohistochemistry testing alone, but incremental analysis produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio exceeding £130,000. Results were robust across all scenario analyses. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from £5690 to £20,740; only removing the benefits of colorectal cancer surveillance produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio in excess of the £20,000 willingness-to-pay threshold. A sensitivity analysis identified the main cost drivers of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio as percentage of relatives accepting counselling and prevalence of Lynch syndrome in the population. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year, a 0.93 probability that immunohistochemistry with MLH1 promoter hypermethylation testing is cost-effective, compared with no testing.

LIMITATIONS

The systematic review excluded grey literature, studies written in non-English languages and studies for which the reference standard could not be established. Studies were included when Lynch syndrome was diagnosed by genetic confirmation of constitutional variants in the four mismatch repair genes (i.e. MLH1, mutS homologue 2, mutS homologue 6 and postmeiotic segregation increased 2). Variants of uncertain significance were reported as per the studies. There were limitations in the economic model around uncertainty in the model parameters and a lack of modelling of the potential harms of gynaecological surveillance and specific pathway modelling of genetic testing for somatic mismatch repair mutations.

CONCLUSION

The economic model suggests that testing women with endometrial cancer for Lynch syndrome is cost-effective, but that results should be treated with caution because of uncertain model inputs.

FUTURE WORK

Randomised controlled trials could provide evidence on the effect of earlier intervention on outcomes and the balance of benefits and harms of gynaecological cancer surveillance. Follow-up of negative cases through disease registers could be used to determine false negative cases.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019147185.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Evidence Synthesis programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 42. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Association between vitamin D supplementation or serum vitamin D level and susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 including clinical course, morbidity and mortality outcomes? A systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To systemically review and critically appraise published studies of the association between vitamin D supplementation or serum vitamin D level and susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19, including clinical course, morbidity and mortality outcomes.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE (OVID), Embase (OVID), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MedRxiv and BioRxiv preprint databases. COVID-19 databases of the WHO, Cochrane, CEBM Oxford and Bern University up to 10 June 2020.

STUDY SELECTION

Studies that assessed vitamin D supplementation and/or low serum vitamin D in patients acutely ill with, or at risk of, severe betacoronavirus infection (SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2).

DATA EXTRACTION

Two authors independently extracted data using a predefined data extraction form and assessed risk of bias using the Downs and Black Quality Assessment Checklist.

RESULTS

Searches elicited 449 papers, 59 studies were eligible full-text assessment and 4 met the eligibility criteria of this review. The four studies were narratively synthesised and included (1) a cross-sectional study (n=107) suggesting an inverse association between serum vitamin D and SARS-CoV-2; (2) a retrospective cohort study (348 598 participants, 449 cases) in which univariable analysis showed that vitamin D protects against COVID-19; (3) an ecological country level study demonstrating a negative correlation between vitamin D and COVID-19 case numbers and mortality; and (4) a case-control survey (n=1486) showing cases with confirmed/probable COVID-19 reported lower vitamin D supplementation. All studies were at high/unclear risk of bias.

CONCLUSION

There is no robust evidence of a negative association between vitamin D and COVID-19. No relevant randomised controlled trials were identified and there is no robust peer-reviewed published evidence of association between vitamin D levels and severity of symptoms or mortality due to COVID-19. Guideline producers should acknowledge that benefits of vitamin D supplementation in COVID-19 are as yet unproven despite increasing interest.

A technical review of three clinical trials register resources indicates where improvements to the search interfaces are needed

Clinical trials registers form an important part of the search for studies in systematic reviews of intervention effectiveness but the search interfaces and functionality of registers can be challenging to search systematically and resource intensive to search well. We report a technical review of the search interfaces of three leading trials register resources: ClinicalTrials.gov, the EU Clinical Trials Register and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registers Platform. The technical review used a validated checklist to identify areas where the search interfaces of these trials register resources performed well, where performance was adequate, where performance was poor, and to identify differences between search interfaces. The review found low overall scores for each of the interfaces (ClinicalTrials.gov 55/165, the EU Clinical Trials Register 25/165, the WHO International Clinical Trials Registers Platform 32/165). This finding suggests a need for joined-up dialogue between the producers of the registers and researchers who search them via these interfaces. We also set out a series of four proposed changes which might improve the search interfaces. Trials registers are an invaluable resource in systematic reviews of intervention effectiveness. With the continued growth in systematic reviews, and initiatives such as 'AllTrials', there is an anticipated need for these resources. We conclude that small changes to the search interfaces, and improved dialogue with providers, might improve the future search functionality of these valuable resources.

Ocrelizumab for Treating Patients with Primary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal

Ocrelizumab is indicated for relapsing remitting and primary progressive multiple sclerosis (RRMS and PPMS, respectively). In an appraisal undertaken by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), the company Roche presented the evidence for ocrelizumab used in patients with PPMS, which came from one single randomised controlled trial (RCT) comparing ocrelizumab versus placebo. Based on results from this trial, the licensed indication was restricted to patients with early PPMS in terms of disease duration and level of disability, and with imaging features characteristic of inflammatory activity. Overall, the Evidence Review Group (ERG) found that the RCT had a low risk of bias. In the post-hoc defined magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) active subgroup, matching the label indication, the risk of confirmed disability progression sustained for 12 weeks (CDP-12) was significantly delayed in the ocrelizumab group compared to placebo. However, considering the same risk with progression sustained for 24 weeks (CDP-24), which was deemed the most clinically relevant, the benefit from ocrelizumab did not reach statistical significance. In the same MRI active subgroup, benefits from ocrelizumab on functional outcomes and on health-related quality of life were not clearly demonstrated. A de novo Markov model was used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of ocrelizumab versus best supportive care (BSC) for treating patients with PPMS. Health states were defined by the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), ranging from 0 to 9. Disability progression was based on the MSBase natural history cohort that exhibited disease progression in the absence of disease-modifying therapy. Treatment with ocrelizumab delayed disability progression, with evidence of its clinical effectiveness obtained from the RCT. The economic analysis was undertaken from the National Health Service and Personal Social Services perspective, and the outcomes were reported in terms of life years gained and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), with the overall results reported in terms of an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), expressed as cost per QALY gained over a 50-year time horizon. Both costs and effects were discounted at 3.5% per annum. The company undertook deterministic one-way sensitivity analyses and scenario analyses, including probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). The ERG raised several concerns, which were discussed at the appraisal committee meetings, resulting in the committee's preferences being applied and a revised economic analysis from the company. Under an approved patient access scheme with appraisal committee preferences applied, analyses yielded an ICER of approximately £78,300 per QALY. Sensitivity analysis results indicated that the treatment effect on CDP-12 had the greatest impact. Results for the PSA showed that at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £30,000 per QALY gained, ocrelizumab versus BSC had a zero probability of being cost-effective. Following new analyses submitted by the company, with a revised confidential patient access scheme, NICE recommended ocrelizumab in the treatment of early PPMS in adults with imaging features characteristic of inflammatory activity.

Determining optimal strategies for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease: systematic review, cost-effectiveness review and network meta-analysis protocol

BACKGROUND

Despite recent improvements in the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the UK, deaths from CVD are relatively high compared with other high-income countries. An estimated 7 million people in the UK are living with CVD, and the healthcare cost is approximately £11 billion annually. In more than 90% of cases, the risk of a first heart attack is thought to be related to modifiable risk factors including smoking, poor diet, lipidemia, high blood pressure, inactivity, obesity and excess alcohol consumption. The aim of the study is to synthesise evidence for the comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different interventions for the primary prevention of CVD.

METHODS

We will systematically search databases (for example, MEDLINE (Ovid), Embase (Ovid), Cochrane Library) and the reference lists of previous systematic reviews for randomised controlled trials that assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of any form of intervention aimed at adult populations for the primary prevention of CVD, including but not limited to lipid lowering medications, blood pressure lowering medications, antiplatelet agents, nutritional supplements, dietary interventions, health promotion programmes, physical activity interventions or structural and policy interventions. Interventions may or may not be targeted at high-risk groups. Publications from any year will be considered for inclusion. The primary outcome will be all cause mortality. Secondary outcomes will be cardiovascular diseases related mortality, major cardiovascular events, coronary heart disease, incremental costs per quality-adjusted life years gained. If data permits, we will use network meta-analysis to compare and rank effectiveness of different interventions, and test effect modification of intervention effectiveness using subgroup analyses and meta-regression analyses.

DISCUSSION

The results will be important for policymakers when making decisions between multiple possible alternative strategies to prevent CVD. Compared to results from existing multiple separate pairwise meta-analyses, this overarching synthesis of all relevant work will enhance decision-making. The findings will be crucial to inform evidence-based priorities and guidelines for policies and planning prevention strategies of CVD.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42019123940.

COVID-19 in cardiac arrest and infection risk to rescuers: A systematic review

Background

There may be a risk of COVID-19 transmission to rescuers delivering treatment for cardiac arrest. The aim of this review was to identify the potential risk of transmission associated with key interventions (chest compressions, defibrillation, cardiopulmonary resuscitation) to inform international treatment recommendations.

Methods

We undertook a systematic review comprising three questions: (1) aerosol generation associated with key interventions; (2) risk of airborne infection transmission associated with key interventions; and (3) the effect of different personal protective equipment strategies. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and the World Health Organization COVID-19 database on 24th March 2020. Eligibility criteria were developed individually for each question. We assessed risk of bias for individual studies, and used the GRADE process to assess evidence certainty by outcome.

Results

We included eleven studies: two cohort studies, one case control study, five case reports, and three manikin randomised controlled trials. We did not find any direct evidence that chest compressions or defibrillation either are or are not associated with aerosol generation or transmission of infection. Data from manikin studies indicates that donning of personal protective equipment delays treatment delivery. Studies provided only indirect evidence, with no study describing patients with COVID-19. Evidence certainty was low or very low for all outcomes.

Conclusion

It is uncertain whether chest compressions or defibrillation cause aerosol generation or transmission of COVID-19 to rescuers. There is very limited evidence and a rapid need for further studies.

Review registration: PROSPERO CRD42020175594.

Identifying latent tuberculosis in high-risk populations: systematic review and meta-analysis of test accuracy

BACKGROUND: The relative accuracy of interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) and the tuberculin skin test (TST) in identifying latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is uncertain.OBJECTIVE: To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis to compare the sensitivity and specificity of IGRAs and TST for the prediction of progression to clinical tuberculosis (TB).METHODS: We searched electronic databases (e.g., MEDLINE and EMBASE) from December 2009 to September 2018 for prospective studies that followed up individuals who had undergone testing with commercial IGRAs and/or TST but had not received treatment based on the test result. The sensitivity and specificity estimates were pooled using a Bayesian bivariate random-effects model.RESULTS: Twenty-five studies, mostly with moderate to high risk of bias and a mean follow-up time ranging from 1 to 5 years were included. TST (10–15 mm) tended to have lower sensitivity and higher specificity than QuantiFERON® Gold In-Tube, T-SPOT®.TB and TST (5 mm). The evidence did not indicate that any test outperformed the others due to wide and overlapping 95% credible intervals.CONCLUSION: The evidence following individuals who had undergone testing for LTBI and had progressed to clinical TB is sparse. We did not find that IGRAs were superior to TST or vice versa; however, as our findings are based on a small number of studies with methodological limitations and great uncertainty around the pooled estimates, the results should be interpreted with caution.

Steady state pharmacokinetics of cycloserine in patients on terizidone for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis

SETTING

Terizidone/cycloserine (TRD/CS) is included in standard treatment regimens for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) in many countries. The steady state pharmacokinetics (PKs) of CS after TRD administration are not known.

OBJECTIVES AND DESIGN

We recruited in-patients treated with 250-750 mg oral TRD daily as part of standard treatment regimens for pulmonary MDR-TB in Cape Town, South Africa. Plasma CS assays were performed in samples taken pre-dose and at 2, 4, 6, 8 and 10 h post-dose. CS concentrations were measured using a validated liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method. Non-compartmental PK analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Of 35 participants enrolled, 22 were males, and 20 (57%) were infected with the human immunodeficiency virus; the median age was 37 years. The median duration on TRD at the time of sampling was 33 days (interquartile range [IQR] 28-39). The area under the concentration-time curve at 0-10 h (AUC0-10) was 319 μg.h/ml (IQR 267.5-378.7), and peak concentration was 38.1 μg/ml (IQR 32.6-47.2). On multiple regression, dose (mg/kg) was the only factor independently associated with AUC0-10.

CONCLUSION

Steady state concentrations of CS in patients treated with TRD for MDR-TB were higher than those reported with CS formulations. Our findings support once-daily dosing.

Effect of tablet crushing on drug exposure in the treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis

SETTING: Treatment outcomes in multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) are poor. Due to drug toxicity and a long treatment duration, approximately half of patients are treated successfully. Medication is often crushed for patients who have difficulty swallowing whole tablets. Whether crushing tablets affects drug exposure in MDR-TB treatment is not known.OBJECTIVE AND DESIGN: We performed a sequential pharmacokinetic study in patients aged >18 years on MDR-TB treatment at two hospitals in Cape Town, South Africa. We compared the bioavailability of pyrazinamide, moxifloxacin, isoniazid (INH), ethambutol and terizidone when the tablets were crushed and mixed with water before administration vs. swallowed whole. We sampled blood at six time points over 10 h under each condition separated by 2 weeks. Non-compartmental analysis was used to derive the key pharmacokinetic measurements.RESULTS: Twenty participants completed the study: 15 were men, and the median age was 31.5 years. There was a 42% reduction in the area under the curve AUC0-10 of INH when the tablets were crushed compared with whole tablets (geometric mean ratio 58%; 90%CI 47-73). Crushing tablets of pyrazinamide, moxifloxacin, ethambutol and terizidone did not affect the bioavailability significantly.CONCLUSION: We recommend that crushing of INH tablets in the MDR-TB treatment regimen be avoided. Paediatric INH formulations may be a viable alternative if the crushing of INH tablets is indicated.

Quality assurance of rifampicin-containing fixed-drug combinations in South Africa: dosing implications

SETTING:

Rifampicin (RMP) drives treatment response in drug-susceptible tuberculosis. Low RMP concentrations increase the risk of poor outcomes, and drug quality needs to be excluded as a contributor to low RMP exposure.

OBJECTIVES AND DESIGN:

We performed an open-label, three-way cross-over study of three licensed RMP-containing formulations widely used in South Africa to evaluate the bioavailability of RMP in a two-drug fixed-dose combination tablet (2FDC) and a four-drug FDC (4FDC) against a single-drug reference. RMP dosed at 600 mg was administered 2 weeks apart in random sequence. Plasma RMP concentrations were measured pre-dose and 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8 and 12 h post-dose. The area under the concentration-time curve (AUC_0–12) of the FDCs was compared to the single drug reference. Simulations were used to predict the impact of our findings.

RESULTS:

Twenty healthy volunteers (median age 22.8 years, body mass index 24.2 kg/m²) completed the study. The AUC_0–12 of the 4FDC/reference (geometric mean ratio [GMR] 78%, 90%CI 69–89) indicated an average 20% reduction in RMP bioavailability in the 4FDC. The 2FDC/reference (GMR 104%, 90%CI 97–111) was bioequivalent. Simulations suggested dose adjustments to compensate for the poor bioavailability of RMP with the 4FDC, and revised weight-band doses to prevent systematic underdosing of low-weight patients.

CONCLUSION:

Post-marketing surveillance of in vivo bioavailability of RMP and improved weight band-based dosing are recommended.

Internet videoconferencing for patient-clinician consultations in long-term conditions: A review of reviews and applications in line with guidelines and recommendations

Background

The use of internet videoconferencing in healthcare settings is widespread, reflecting the normalisation of this mode of communication in society and current healthcare policy. As the use of internet videoconferencing is growing, increasing numbers of reviews of literature are published.

Methods

The authors conducted a review of the existing reviews of literature relating to the use of internet videoconferencing for consultations between healthcare professionals and patients with long-term conditions in their own home. The review was followed with an assessment of United Kingdom National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence guidelines for patient care in the context of common long-term illnesses to examine where videoconferencing could be implemented in line with these recommendations.

Results

The review of reviews found no formal evidence in favour of or against the use of internet videoconferencing. Patients were satisfied with the use of videoconferencing but there was limited evidence that it led to a change in health outcomes. Evidence of healthcare professional satisfaction when using this mode of communication with patients was limited. The review of guidelines suggested a number of opportunities for adoption and expansion of internet videoconferencing. Implementing videoconferencing in line with current evidence for patient care could offer support and provide information on using a communication channel that suits individual patient needs and circumstances. The evidence base for videoconferencing is growing, but there is still a lack of data relating to cost, ethics and safety.

Conclusions

While the current evidence base for internet videoconferencing is equivocal, it is likely to change as more research is undertaken and evidence published. With more videoconferencing services added in more contexts, research needs to explore how internet videoconferencing can be implemented in ways that it is valued by patients and clinicians, and how it can fit within organisational and technical infrastructure of the healthcare services.

Pembrolizumab for Previously Treated Advanced or Metastatic Urothelial Cancer: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal

Pembrolizumab is an intravenously administered monoclonal antibody licensed for locally advanced or metastatic urothelial carcinoma after platinum-containing chemotherapy. This summary presents the perspective of Warwick Evidence, the Evidence Review Group (ERG) appointed by the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) for the single technology appraisal of pembrolizumab for this indication. Pembrolizumab is manufactured by Merck, Sharp and Dohme (MSD). The major source of clinical effectiveness was the KEYNOTE-045 trial, where 542 patients received either pembrolizumab or clinician's choice of docetaxel, paclitaxel or vinflunine as a second-line treatment. No indirect treatment comparison was performed. The clinical effectiveness was assessed using hazard ratios for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) of the intention-to-treat (ITT) population, together with the subpopulations positive for programmed cell death 1 ligand 1 (PD-L1) expression (combined positive score [CPS] ≥ 1%) and strongly positive for PD-L1 expression (CPS ≥ 10%). In the ITT population, OS improved with pembrolizumab (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.59-0.91) while PFS outcomes showed no difference (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.81-1.19). Pembrolizumab demonstrated a better safety profile than its combined comparators, with fewer patients experiencing adverse events (60.9 vs 90.2%). Similar results were observed in populations expressing PD-L1. MSD estimated the cost effectiveness of pembrolizumab using a de novo partitioned survival model. The model had three health states: pre-progression, post-progression and death, where OS and PFS estimates excluded patients who received vinflunine. The largest uncertainty was over the selection of the parametric models used to extrapolate OS and PFS and the time point for when to begin their extrapolation. The company preferences for extrapolation were not well supported and the ERG disagreed with their selection for OS. Utility values were also contentious, with the company preferring to use pooled time-to-death-based utilities pooled across treatment arms, whilst the ERG preferred pooled progression-based utilities. The company preferred to use data from patients receiving vinflunine when calculating the utility values, which the ERG disagreed with as this is not recommended treatment within the UK. The company assumed a lifetime treatment effect for their model; however, the lack of evidence made it difficult to confidently provide a realistic estimate of treatment effect duration. Various durations were explored (3, 5 and 10 years). The first appraisal committee meeting concluded that pembrolizumab was not cost effective, largely due to uncertainty in the OS and PFS extrapolations. The company's second submission included an additional 4 months follow-up to survival data. The company in this new submission maintained their original assumptions in their base-case analysis, changing only the choice of parametric curve for PFS. This change resulted in the OS and PFS curves intersecting at 6 years in the pembrolizumab arm, at which point PFS identically followed OS. This resulted in no patients in the post-progression health state beyond this time point, and therefore, the majority of pembrolizumab's benefit came from pre-progression survival. Given the unclear PFS benefit, the ERG found this implausible and maintained their original base-case model assumptions. Considerable uncertainty remained over the specification of the extrapolations and the duration of treatment effect. Based on a new-value proposition submitted by the company, the appraisal committee concluded that pembrolizumab had plausible potential to be cost effective. Pembrolizumab was referred for funding through the Cancer Drugs Fund, so that further data could be collected with the aim of diminishing the outstanding uncertainties pertaining to its clinical effectiveness.

Comparative effectiveness of beta-interferons and glatiramer acetate for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: systematic review and network meta-analysis of trials including recommended dosages

BACKGROUND

We systematically reviewed the comparative effectiveness of injectable beta-interferons (IFN-β) and glatiramer acetate (GA) on annualised relapse rate (ARR), progression and discontinuation due to adverse events (AEs) in RRMS, using evidence from within the drugs' recommended dosages.

METHODS

We updated prior comprehensive reviews, checked references of included studies, contacted experts in the field, and screened websites for relevant publications to locate randomised trials of IFN-β and GA with recommended dosages in RRMS populations, compared against placebo or other recommended dosages. Abstracts were screened and assessed for inclusion in duplicate and independently. Studies were appraised using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Rate ratios for ARR, hazard ratios for time to progression, and risk ratios for discontinuation due to AEs were synthesised in separate models using random effects network meta-analysis.

RESULTS

We identified 24 studies reported in 42 publications. Most studies were at high risk of bias in at least one domain. All drugs had a beneficial effect on ARR as compared to placebo, but not compared to each other, and findings were robust to sensitivity analysis. We considered time to progression confirmed at 3 months and confirmed at 6 months in separate models; while both models suggested that the included drugs were effective, findings were not consistent between models. Discontinuation due to AEs did not appear to be different between drugs.

CONCLUSIONS

Meta-analyses confirmed that IFN-β and GA reduce ARR and generally delay progression as defined in these trials, though there was no clear 'winner' across outcomes. Findings are additionally tempered by the high risk of bias across studies, and the use of an impairment/mobility scale to measure disease progression. Future research should consider more relevant measures of disability and, given that most trials have been short-term, consider a longitudinal approach to comparative effectiveness.

REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42016043278 .

Effectiveness and impact of networked communication interventions in young people with mental health conditions: A rapid review

Objective

To describe the latest evidence of effectiveness and impact of networked communication interventions for young people with mental health conditions.

Methods

Searching five databases from 2009 onwards, we included studies of any design investigating two-way communication interventions for the treatment of young people (mean age 12–25) with a chronic mental health disorder. The data were synthesised using narrative summary.

Results

Six studies met the inclusion criteria, covering a range of mental health conditions (depression, psychosis, OCD). Interventions included an online chat room (n = 2), videoconferencing (n = 3) and telephone (n = 1). Where studies compared two groups, equivalence or a statistically significant improvement in symptoms was observed compared to control. Views of patients and clinicians included impact on the patient-clinician interaction. Clinicians did not feel it hindered their diagnostic ability.

Conclusion

Networked communication technologies show promise in the treatment of young people with mental health problems but the current available evidence remains limited and the evidence base has not advanced much since the previous inception of this review in 2011.

Practice implications

Although the available research is generally positive, robust evidence relating to the provision of care for young persons via these technologies is lacking and healthcare providers should be mindful of this.

Clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of beta-interferon and glatiramer acetate for treating multiple sclerosis: systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

At the time of publication of the most recent National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidance [technology appraisal (TA) 32] in 2002 on beta-interferon (IFN-β) and glatiramer acetate (GA) for multiple sclerosis, there was insufficient evidence of their clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness.

OBJECTIVES

To undertake (1) systematic reviews of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of IFN-β and GA in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) and clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) compared with best supportive care (BSC) and each other, investigating annualised relapse rate (ARR) and time to disability progression confirmed at 3 months and 6 months and (2) cost-effectiveness assessments of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) for CIS and RRMS compared with BSC and each other.

REVIEW METHODS

Searches were undertaken in January and February 2016 in databases including The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE and the Science Citation Index. We limited some database searches to specific start dates based on previous, relevant systematic reviews. Two reviewers screened titles and abstracts with recourse to a third when needed. The Cochrane tool and the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) and Philips checklists were used for appraisal. Narrative synthesis and, when possible, random-effects meta-analysis and network meta-analysis (NMA) were performed. Cost-effectiveness analysis used published literature, findings from the Department of Health's risk-sharing scheme (RSS) and expert opinion. A de novo economic model was built for CIS. The base case used updated RSS data, a NHS and Personal Social Services perspective, a 50-year time horizon, 2014/15 prices and a discount rate of 3.5%. Outcomes are reported as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). We undertook probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

In total, 6420 publications were identified, of which 63 relating to 35 randomised controlled trials (RCTs) were included. In total, 86% had a high risk of bias. There was very little difference between drugs in reducing moderate or severe relapse rates in RRMS. All were beneficial compared with BSC, giving a pooled rate ratio of 0.65 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56 to 0.76] for ARR and a hazard ratio of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.55 to 0.87) for time to disability progression confirmed at 3 months. NMA suggested that 20 mg of GA given subcutaneously had the highest probability of being the best at reducing ARR. Three separate cost-effectiveness searches identified > 2500 publications, with 26 included studies informing the narrative synthesis and model inputs. In the base case using a modified RSS the mean incremental cost was £31,900 for pooled DMTs compared with BSC and the mean incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were 0.943, giving an ICER of £33,800 per QALY gained for people with RRMS. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis the ICER was £34,000 per QALY gained. In sensitivity analysis, using the assessment group inputs gave an ICER of £12,800 per QALY gained for pooled DMTs compared with BSC. Pegylated IFN-β-1 (125 µg) was the most cost-effective option of the individual DMTs compared with BSC (ICER £7000 per QALY gained); GA (20 mg) was the most cost-effective treatment for CIS (ICER £16,500 per QALY gained).

LIMITATIONS

Although we built a de novo model for CIS that incorporated evidence from our systematic review of clinical effectiveness, our findings relied on a population diagnosed with CIS before implementation of the revised 2010 McDonald criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

DMTs were clinically effective for RRMS and CIS but cost-effective only for CIS. Both RCT evidence and RSS data are at high risk of bias. Research priorities include comparative studies with longer follow-up and systematic review and meta-synthesis of qualitative studies.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016043278.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Canagliflozin, dapagliflozin and empagliflozin monotherapy for treating type 2 diabetes: systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Most people with type 2 diabetes are overweight, so initial treatment is aimed at reducing weight and increasing physical activity. Even modest weight loss can improve control of blood glucose. If drug treatment is necessary, the drug of first choice is metformin. However, some people cannot tolerate metformin, which causes diarrhoea in about 10%, and it cannot be used in people with renal impairment. This review appraises three of the newest class of drugs for monotherapy when metformin cannot be used, the sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors.

OBJECTIVE

To review the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin (Farxiga, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Luton, UK), canagliflozin (Invokana, Janssen, High Wycombe, UK) and empagliflozin (Jardiance, Merck & Co., Darmstadt, Germany), in monotherapy in people who cannot take metformin.

SOURCES

MEDLINE (1946 to February 2015) and EMBASE (1974 to February 2015) for randomised controlled trials lasting 24 weeks or more. For adverse events, a wider range of studies was used. Three manufacturers provided submissions.

METHODS

Systematic review and economic evaluation. A network meta-analysis was carried out involving the three SGLT2 inhibitors and key comparators. Critical appraisal of submissions from three manufacturers.

RESULTS

We included three trials of dapagliflozin and two each for canagliflozin and empagliflozin. The trials were of good quality. The canagliflozin and dapagliflozin trials compared them with placebo, but the two empagliflozin trials included active comparators. All three drugs were shown to be effective in improving glycaemic control, promoting weight loss and lowering blood pressure (BP).

LIMITATIONS

There were no head-to-head trials of the different flozins, and no long-term data on cardiovascular outcomes in this group of patients. Most trials were against placebo. The trials were done in patient groups that were not always comparable, for example in baseline glycated haemoglobin or body mass index. Data on elderly patients were lacking.

CONCLUSIONS

Dapagliflozin, canagliflozin and empagliflozin are effective in improving glycaemic control, with added benefits of some reductions in BP and weight. Adverse effects are urinary and genital tract infections in a small proportion of users. In monotherapy, the three drugs do not appear cost-effective compared with gliclazide or pioglitazone, but may be competitive against sitagliptin (Januvia, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bracknell, UK).

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Autologous chondrocyte implantation in the knee: systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

The surfaces of the bones in the knee are covered with articular cartilage, a rubber-like substance that is very smooth, allowing frictionless movement in the joint and acting as a shock absorber. The cells that form the cartilage are called chondrocytes. Natural cartilage is called hyaline cartilage. Articular cartilage has very little capacity for self-repair, so damage may be permanent. Various methods have been used to try to repair cartilage. Autologous chondrocyte implantation (ACI) involves laboratory culture of cartilage-producing cells from the knee and then implanting them into the chondral defect.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ACI in chondral defects in the knee, compared with microfracture (MF).

DATA SOURCES

A broad search was done in MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, NHS Economic Evaluation Database and Web of Science, for studies published since the last Health Technology Assessment review.

REVIEW METHODS

Systematic review of recent reviews, trials, long-term observational studies and economic evaluations of the use of ACI and MF for repairing symptomatic articular cartilage defects of the knee. A new economic model was constructed. Submissions from two manufacturers and the ACTIVE (Autologous Chondrocyte Transplantation/Implantation Versus Existing Treatment) trial group were reviewed. Survival analysis was based on long-term observational studies.

RESULTS

Four randomised controlled trials (RCTs) published since the last appraisal provided evidence on the efficacy of ACI. The SUMMIT (Superiority of Matrix-induced autologous chondrocyte implant versus Microfracture for Treatment of symptomatic articular cartilage defects) trial compared matrix-applied chondrocyte implantation (MACI^®) against MF. The TIG/ACT/01/2000 (TIG/ACT) trial compared ACI with characterised chondrocytes against MF. The ACTIVE trial compared several forms of ACI against standard treatments, mainly MF. In the SUMMIT trial, improvements in knee injury and osteoarthritis outcome scores (KOOSs), and the proportion of responders, were greater in the MACI group than in the MF group. In the TIG/ACT trial there was improvement in the KOOS at 60 months, but no difference between ACI and MF overall. Patients with onset of symptoms < 3 years' duration did better with ACI. Results from ACTIVE have not yet been published. Survival analysis suggests that long-term results are better with ACI than with MF. Economic modelling suggested that ACI was cost-effective compared with MF across a range of scenarios.

LIMITATIONS

The main limitation is the lack of RCT data beyond 5 years of follow-up. A second is that the techniques of ACI are evolving, so long-term data come from trials using forms of ACI that are now superseded. In the modelling, we therefore assumed that durability of cartilage repair as seen in studies of older forms of ACI could be applied in modelling of newer forms. A third is that the high list prices of chondrocytes are reduced by confidential discounting. The main research needs are for longer-term follow-up and for trials of the next generation of ACI.

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence base for ACI has improved since the last appraisal by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. In most analyses, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for ACI compared with MF appear to be within a range usually considered acceptable. Research is needed into long-term results of new forms of ACI.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42014013083.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Accurate diagnosis of latent tuberculosis in children, people who are immunocompromised or at risk from immunosuppression and recent arrivals from countries with a high incidence of tuberculosis: systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis (TB), caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) [(Zopf 1883) Lehmann and Neumann 1896], is a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Nearly one-third of the world's population is infected with MTB; TB has an annual incidence of 9 million new cases and each year causes 2 million deaths worldwide.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of screening tests [interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) and tuberculin skin tests (TSTs)] in latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) diagnosis to support National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline development for three population groups: children, immunocompromised people and those who have recently arrived in the UK from high-incidence countries. All of these groups are at higher risk of progression from LTBI to active TB.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library and Current Controlled Trials were searched from December 2009 up to December 2014.

REVIEW METHODS

English-language studies evaluating the comparative effectiveness of commercially available tests used for identifying LTBI in children, immunocompromised people and recent arrivals to the UK were eligible. Interventions were IGRAs [QuantiFERON(®)-TB Gold (QFT-G), QuantiFERON(®)-TB Gold-In-Tube (QFT-GIT) (Cellestis/Qiagen, Carnegie, VA, Australia) and T-SPOT.TB (Oxford Immunotec, Abingdon, UK)]. The comparator was TST 5 mm or 10 mm alone or with an IGRA. Two independent reviewers screened all identified records and undertook a quality assessment and data synthesis. A de novo model, structured in two stages, was developed to compare the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic strategies.

RESULTS

In total, 6687 records were screened, of which 53 unique studies were included (a further 37 studies were identified from a previous NICE guideline). The majority of the included studies compared the strength of association for the QFT-GIT/G IGRA with the TST (5 mm or 10 mm) in relation to the incidence of active TB or previous TB exposure. Ten studies reported evidence on decision-analytic models to determine the cost-effectiveness of IGRAs compared with the TST for LTBI diagnosis. In children, TST (≥ 5 mm) negative followed by QFT-GIT was the most cost-effective strategy, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £18,900 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. In immunocompromised people, QFT-GIT negative followed by the TST (≥ 5 mm) was the most cost-effective strategy, with an ICER of approximately £18,700 per QALY gained. In those recently arrived from high TB incidence countries, the TST (≥ 5 mm) alone was less costly and more effective than TST (≥ 5 mm) positive followed by QFT-GIT or T-SPOT.TB or QFT-GIT alone.

LIMITATIONS

The limitations and scarcity of the evidence, variation in the exposure-based definitions of LTBI and heterogeneity in IGRA performance relative to TST limit the applicability of the review findings.

CONCLUSIONS

Given the current evidence, TST (≥ 5 mm) negative followed by QFT-GIT for children, QFT-GIT negative followed by TST (≥ 5 mm) for the immunocompromised population and TST (≥ 5 mm) for recent arrivals were the most cost-effective strategies for diagnosing LTBI that progresses to active TB. These results should be interpreted with caution given the limitations identified. The evidence available is limited and more high-quality research in this area is needed including studies on the inconsistent performance of tests in high-compared with low-incidence TB settings; the prospective assessment of progression to active TB for those at high risk; the relative benefits of two-compared with one-step testing with different tests; and improved classification of people at high and low risk for LTBI.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42014009033.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of use of therapeutic monitoring of tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) inhibitors [LISA-TRACKER® enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kits, TNF-α-Blocker ELISA kits and Promonitor® ELISA kits] versus standard care in patients with Crohn's disease: systematic reviews and economic modelling

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Systematic reviews and economic modelling of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of therapeutic monitoring of tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) inhibitors [using LISA-TRACKER^® enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kits (Theradiag, Marne La Vallee, France, or Alpha Laboratories, Heriot, UK), TNF-α-Blocker ELISA kits (Immundiagnostik AG, Bensheim, Germany) and Promonitor^® ELISA kits (Proteomika, Progenika Biopharma, Bizkaia, Spain)] versus standard care for Crohn's disease (CD).

METHODS

Multiple electronic databases were searched from inception to December 2014 in order to identify primary studies and meta-analyses.

POPULATION

Patients with moderate to severe active CD treated with infliximab (IFX) (Remicade^®, Merck Sharp & Dohme Ltd, Kenilworth, NJ, USA) or adalimumab (ADA) (Humira^®, AbbVie Inc., North Chicago, IL, USA).

INTERVENTION

Monitoring of serum anti-TNF-α (IFX or ADA) and/or of anti-drug antibody levels using test assays with a test-treatment algorithm.

COMPARATOR

Standard care.

OUTCOMES

Any patient-related outcome, test agreement and cost-effectiveness estimates. The quality assessments used recognised checklists (Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2, Cochrane, Philips and Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards). Evidence was synthesised using narrative review and meta-analysis. A Markov model was built in TreeAge Pro 2013 (TreeAge Software, Inc., Williamstown, MA, USA). The model had a 4-week cycle and a 10-year time horizon, adopted a NHS and Personal Social Services perspective and used a linked evidence approach. Costs were adjusted to 2013/14 prices and discounted at 3.5%.

RESULTS

We included 68 out of 2434 and 4 out of 2466 studies for the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness reviews, respectively. Twenty-three studies comparing test methods were identified. Evidence on test concordance was sparse and contradictory, offering scant data for a linked evidence approach. Three studies [two randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and one retrospective observational study] investigated outcomes following implementation of a test algorithm. None used the specified commercial ELISA immunoassay test kits. Neither of the two RCTs demonstrated clinical benefit of a test-treatment regimen. A meta-analysis of 31 studies to estimate test accuracy for predicting clinical status indicated that 20-30% of test results are likely to be inaccurate. The four cost-effectiveness studies suggested that testing results in small cost reductions. In the economic analysis the base-case analysis showed that standard practice (no testing/therapeutic monitoring with the intervention tests) was more costly and more effective than testing for IFX. Sensitivity and scenario analyses gave similar results. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated a 92% likelihood that the 'no-testing' strategy was cost-effective at a willingness to pay of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year.

STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS

Rigorous systematic reviews were undertaken; however, the underlying evidence base was poor or lacking. There was uncertainty about a linked evidence approach and a lack of gold standard for assay comparison. The only comparative evidence available for economic evaluation was for assays other than the intervention assays.

CONCLUSIONS

Our finding that testing is not cost-effective for IFX should be viewed cautiously in view of the limited evidence. Clinicians should be mindful of variation in performance of different assays and of the absence of standardised approaches to patient assessment and treatment algorithms.

FUTURE WORK RECOMMENDATIONS

There is substantial variation in the underlying treatment pathways and uncertainty in the relative effectiveness of assay- and test-based treatment algorithms, which requires further investigation. There is very little research evidence on ADA or on drug monitoring in children with CD, and conclusions on cost-effectiveness could not be reached for these.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42014015278.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Corrigendum: Canagliflozin, dapagliflozin and empagliflozin monotherapy for treating type 2 diabetes: systematic review and economic evaluation

Empagliflozin (Jardiance, Merck & Co., Darmstadt, Germany) has been replaced with empagliflozin (Jardiance, Boehringer Ingelheim, Ingelheim, Germany/Eli Lilly and Company, Indianapolis, IN, USA).

Sitagliptin (Januvia, Boehringer Ingelheim, Bracknell, UK) has been replaced with sitagliptin (Januvia, Merck Sharp & Dohme Limited, Kenilworth, NJ, USA).

The role of digital communication in patient–clinician communication for NHS providers of specialist clinical services for young people [the Long-term conditions Young people Networked Communication (LYNC) study]: a mixed-methods study

Background

Young people (aged 16–24 years) with long-term health conditions tend to disengage from health services, resulting in poor health outcomes. They are prolific users of digital communications. Innovative UK NHS clinicians use digital communication with these young people. The NHS plans to use digital communication with patients more widely.

Objectives

To explore how health-care engagement can be improved using digital clinical communication (DCC); understand effects, impacts, costs and necessary safeguards; and provide critical analysis of its use, monitoring and evaluation.

Design

Observational mixed-methods case studies; systematic scoping literature reviews; assessment of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs); public and patient involvement; and consensus development through focus groups.

Setting

Twenty NHS specialist clinical teams from across England and Wales, providing care for 13 different long-term physical or mental health conditions.

Participants

One hundred and sixty-five young people aged 16–24 years living with a long-term health condition; 13 parents; 173 clinical team members; and 16 information governance specialists.

Interventions

Clinical teams and young people variously used mobile phone calls, text messages, e-mail and voice over internet protocol.

Main outcome measures

Empirical work – thematic and ethical analysis of qualitative data; annual direct costs; did not attend, accident and emergency attendance and hospital admission rates plus clinic-specific clinical outcomes. Scoping reviews–patient, health professional and service delivery outcomes and technical problems. PROMs: scale validity, relevance and credibility.

Data sources

Observation, interview, structured survey, routinely collected data, focus groups and peer-reviewed publications.

Results

Digital communication enables access for young people to the right clinician when it makes a difference for managing their health condition. This is valued as additional to traditional clinic appointments. This access challenges the nature and boundaries of therapeutic relationships, but can improve them, increase patient empowerment and enhance activation. Risks include increased dependence on clinicians, inadvertent disclosure of confidential information and communication failures, but clinicians and young people mitigate these risks. Workload increases and the main cost is staff time. Clinical teams had not evaluated the impact of their intervention and analysis of routinely collected data did not identify any impact. There are no currently used generic outcome measures, but the Patient Activation Measure and the Physicians’ Humanistic Behaviours Questionnaire are promising. Scoping reviews suggest DCC is acceptable to young people, but with no clear evidence of benefit except for mental health.

Limitations

Qualitative data were mostly from clinician enthusiasts. No interviews were achieved with young people who do not attend clinics. Clinicians struggled to estimate workload. Only eight full sets of routine data were available.

Conclusions

Timely DCC is perceived as making a difference to health care and health outcomes for young people with long-term conditions, but this is not supported by evidence that measures health outcomes. Such communication is challenging and costly to provide, but valued by young people.

Future work

Future development should distinguish digital communication replacing traditional clinic appointments and additional timely communication. Evaluation is needed that uses relevant generic outcomes.

Study registration

Two of the reviews in this study are registered as PROSPERO CRD42016035467 and CRD42016038792.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

Short- and long-term clinical outcomes of use of beta-interferon or glatiramer acetate for people with clinically isolated syndrome: a systematic review of randomised controlled trials and network meta-analysis

Background

Beta-interferon (IFN-β) and glatiramer acetate (GA) have been evaluated in people with clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) with the aim to delay a second clinical attack and a diagnosis of clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS). We systematically reviewed trials evaluating the short- and long-term clinical effectiveness of these drugs in CIS.

Methods

We searched multiple electronic databases. We selected randomised controlled studies (RCTs) conducted in CIS patients and where the interventions were IFN-β and GA. Main outcomes were time to CDMS, and discontinuation due to adverse events (AE). We compared interventions using random-effect network meta-analyses (NMA). We also reported outcomes from long-term open-label extension (OLE) studies.

Results

We identified five primary studies. Four had open-label extensions following double-blind periods comparing outcomes between early vs delayed DMT. Short-term clinical results (double-blind period) showed that all drugs delayed CDMS compared to placebo. Indirect comparisons did not suggest superiority of any one active drug over another. We could not undertake a NMA for discontinuation due to AE. Long-term clinical results (OLE studies) showed that the risk of developing CDMS was consistently reduced across studies after early DMT treatment compared to delayed DMT (HR = 0.64, 95% CI 0.55, 0.74). No data supported the benefit of DMTs in reducing the time to, and magnitude of, disability progression.

Conclusions

Meta-analyses confirmed that IFN-β and GA delay time to CDMS compared to placebo. In the absence of evidence that early DMTs can reduce disability progression, future research is needed to better identify patients most likely to benefit from long-term DMTs.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s00415-018-8752-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Digital Clinical Communication for Families and Caregivers of Children or Young People With Short- or Long-Term Conditions: Rapid Review

BACKGROUND

The communication relationship between parents of children or young people with health conditions and health professionals is an important part of treatment, but it is unclear how far the use of digital clinical communication tools may affect this relationship.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of our study was to describe, assess the feasibility of, and explore the impact of digital clinical communication between families or caregivers and health professionals.

METHODS

We searched the literature using 5 electronic databases. We considered all types of study design published in the English language from January 2009 to August 2015. The population of interest included families and caregivers of children and young people aged less than 26 years with any type of health condition. The intervention was any technology permitting 2-way communication.

RESULTS

We included 31 articles. The main designs were randomized controlled trials (RCTs; n=10), cross-sectional studies (n=9), pre- and postintervention uncontrolled (pre/post) studies (n=7), and qualitative interview studies (n=2); 6 had mixed-methods designs. In the majority of cases, we considered the quality rating to be fair. Many different types of health condition were represented. A breadth of digital communication tools were included: videoconferencing or videoconsultation (n=14), and Web messaging or emails (n=12). Health care professionals were mainly therapists or cognitive behavioral therapists (n=10), physicians (n=8), and nurses (n=6). Studies were very heterogeneous in terms of outcomes. Interventions were mainly evaluated using satisfaction or acceptance, or outcomes relating to feasibility. Clinical outcomes were rarely used. The RCTs showed that digital clinical communication had no impact in comparison with standard care. Uncontrolled pre/post studies showed good rates of satisfaction or acceptance. Some economic studies suggested that digital clinical communication may save costs.

CONCLUSIONS

This rapid review showed an emerging body of literature on the use of digital clinical communication to improve families' and caregivers' involvement in the health management of children or young people. Further research with appropriate study designs and longer-term outcome measures should be encouraged.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42016035467; http://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD 42016 035467(Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6vpgZU1FU).

Test accuracy of drug and antibody assays for predicting response to antitumour necrosis factor treatment in Crohn's disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To present meta-analytic test accuracy estimates of levels of antitumour necrosis factor (anti-TNF) and antibodies to anti-TNF to predict loss of response or lack of regaining response in patients with anti-TNF managed Crohn's disease.

METHODS

MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Library and Science Citation Index were searched from inception to October/November 2014 to identify studies which reported 2×2 table data of the association between levels of anti-TNF or its antibodies and clinical status. Hierarchical/bivariate meta-analysis was undertaken with the user-written 'metandi' package of Harbord and Whiting using Stata V.11 software, for infliximab, adalimumab,anti-infliximab and anti-adalimumab levels as predictors of loss of response. Prevalence of Crohn's disease in included studies was meta-analysed using a random effects model in MetaAnalyst software to calculate positive and negative predictive values. The search was updated in January 2017.

RESULTS

31 studies were included in the review. Studies were heterogeneous with respect to the type of test used, criteria for establishing response and loss of response, population examined and results. Meta-analytic summary point estimates for sensitivity and specificity were 65.7% and 80.6% for infliximab trough levels and 56% and 79% for antibodies to infliximab, respectively. Pooled results for adalimumab trough levels and antibodies to adalimumab were similar. Pooled positive and negative predictive values ranged between 70% and 80% implying that between 20% and 30% of both positive and negative test results may be incorrect in predicting loss of response.

CONCLUSION

The available evidence suggests that these tests have modest predictive accuracy for clinical status; direct test accuracy comparisons in the same population are needed. More clinical trial evidence from test-treat studies is required before the clinical utility of the tests can be reliably evaluated.

Erratum to: Methods for evaluating medical tests and biomarkers

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1186/s41512-016-0001-y.].

Comparing interferon-gamma release assays with tuberculin skin test for identifying latent tuberculosis infection that progresses to active tuberculosis: systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Timely and accurate identification of people with latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is important for controlling Mycobacterium tuberculosis (TB). There is no gold standard for diagnosis of LTBI. Screening tests such as interferon gamma release assays (IGRAs) and tuberculin skin test (TST) provide indirect and imperfect information. This systematic review compared two types of IGRAs QuantiFERON®-TB Gold In-Tube test (QFT-GIT) and T-SPOT.TB with TST for identification of LTBI by predicting progression to a diagnosis of active TB in three subgroups: children, immunocompromised people, and those recently arrived from countries with high TB burden.

METHODS

Cohort studies were eligible for inclusion. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library and other databases from December 2009 to June 2015. One reviewer screened studies, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias with cross checking by a second reviewer. Strength of association between test results and incidence of TB was summarised using cumulative incidence ratios (CIRs with 95% CIs). Summary effect measures: the ratio of CIRs (R-CIR) with 95% CIs. R-CIRs, were pooled using a random-effects model. Heterogeneity was assessed using Chi-squared and I² statistics.

RESULTS

Seventeen studies, mostly of moderate or high risk of bias (five in children, 10 in immunocompromised people, and two in those recently arrived) were included. In children, while in two studies, there was no significant difference between QFT-GIT and TST (≥5 mm) (pooled R-CIR = 1.11, 95% CI: 0.71, 1.74), two other studies showed QFT-GIT to outperform TST (≥10 mm) in identifying LTBI. In immunocompromised people, IGRA (T-SPOT.TB) was not significant different from TST (≥10 mm) for identifying LTBI, (pooled R-CIR = 1.01, 95% CI: 0.65, 1.58). The forest plot of two studies in recently arrived people from countries with high TB burden demonstrated inconsistent findings (high heterogeneity; I² = 92%).

CONCLUSIONS

Prospective studies comparing IGRA testing against TST on the progression from LTBI to TB were sparse, and these results should be interpreted with caution due to uncertainty, risk of bias, and unexplained heterogeneity. Population-based studies with adequate sample size and follow-up are required to adequately compare the performance of IGRA with TST in people at high risk of TB.

Autologous chondrocyte implantation in the knee: systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

The surfaces of the bones in the knee are covered with articular cartilage, a rubber-like substance that is very smooth, allowing frictionless movement in the joint and acting as a shock absorber. The cells that form the cartilage are called chondrocytes. Natural cartilage is called hyaline cartilage. Articular cartilage has very little capacity for self-repair, so damage may be permanent. Various methods have been used to try to repair cartilage. Autologous chondrocyte implantation (ACI) involves laboratory culture of cartilage-producing cells from the knee and then implanting them into the chondral defect.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of ACI in chondral defects in the knee, compared with microfracture (MF).

DATA SOURCES

A broad search was done in MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, NHS Economic Evaluation Database and Web of Science, for studies published since the last Health Technology Assessment review.

REVIEW METHODS

Systematic review of recent reviews, trials, long-term observational studies and economic evaluations of the use of ACI and MF for repairing symptomatic articular cartilage defects of the knee. A new economic model was constructed. Submissions from two manufacturers and the ACTIVE (Autologous Chondrocyte Transplantation/Implantation Versus Existing Treatment) trial group were reviewed. Survival analysis was based on long-term observational studies.

RESULTS

Four randomised controlled trials (RCTs) published since the last appraisal provided evidence on the efficacy of ACI. The SUMMIT (Superiority of Matrix-induced autologous chondrocyte implant versus Microfracture for Treatment of symptomatic articular cartilage defects) trial compared matrix-applied chondrocyte implantation (MACI^®) against MF. The TIG/ACT/01/2000 (TIG/ACT) trial compared ACI with characterised chondrocytes against MF. The ACTIVE trial compared several forms of ACI against standard treatments, mainly MF. In the SUMMIT trial, improvements in knee injury and osteoarthritis outcome scores (KOOSs), and the proportion of responders, were greater in the MACI group than in the MF group. In the TIG/ACT trial there was improvement in the KOOS at 60 months, but no difference between ACI and MF overall. Patients with onset of symptoms < 3 years' duration did better with ACI. Results from ACTIVE have not yet been published. Survival analysis suggests that long-term results are better with ACI than with MF. Economic modelling suggested that ACI was cost-effective compared with MF across a range of scenarios.

LIMITATIONS

The main limitation is the lack of RCT data beyond 5 years of follow-up. A second is that the techniques of ACI are evolving, so long-term data come from trials using forms of ACI that are now superseded. In the modelling, we therefore assumed that durability of cartilage repair as seen in studies of older forms of ACI could be applied in modelling of newer forms. A third is that the high list prices of chondrocytes are reduced by confidential discounting. The main research needs are for longer-term follow-up and for trials of the next generation of ACI.

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence base for ACI has improved since the last appraisal by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. In most analyses, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for ACI compared with MF appear to be within a range usually considered acceptable. Research is needed into long-term results of new forms of ACI.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42014013083.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Is monitoring of plasma 5-fluorouracil levels in metastatic / advanced colorectal cancer clinically effective? A systematic review

Background

Pharmacokinetic guided dosing of 5-fluorouracil chemotherapies to bring plasma 5-fluorouracil into a desired therapeutic range may lead to fewer side effects and better patient outcomes. High performance liquid chromatography and a high throughput nanoparticle immunoassay (My5-FU) have been used in conjunction with treatment algorithms to guide dosing. The objective of this study was to assess accuracy, clinical effectiveness and safety of plasma 5-fluorouracil guided dose regimen(s) versus standard regimens based on body surface area in colorectal cancer.

Methods

We undertook a systematic review. MEDLINE; MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations; EMBASE; Cochrane Library; Science Citation Index and Conference Proceedings (Web of Science); and NIHR Health Technology Assessment Programme were searched from inception to January 2014. We reviewed evidence on accuracy of My5-FU for estimating plasma 5-fluorouracil and on the clinical effectiveness of pharmacokinetic dosing compared to body surface area dosing. Estimates of individual patient data for overall survival and progression-free survival were reconstructed from published studies. Survival and adverse events data were synthesised and examined for consistency across studies.

Results

My5-FU assays were found to be consistent with reference liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. Comparative studies pointed to gains in overall survival and in progression-free survival with pharmacokinetic dosing, and were consistent across multiple studies.

Conclusions

Although our analyses are encouraging, uncertainties remain because evidence is mainly from outmoded 5-fluorouracil regimens; a randomised controlled trial is urgently needed to investigate new dose adjustment methods in modern treatment regimens.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12885-016-2581-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Fluorouracil plasma monitoring: systematic review and economic evaluation of the My5-FU assay for guiding dose adjustment in patients receiving fluorouracil chemotherapy by continuous infusion

BACKGROUND

5-Fluorouracil (5-FU) is a chemotherapy used in colorectal, head and neck (H&N) and other cancers. Dose adjustment is based on body surface area (BSA) but wide variations occur. Pharmacokinetic (PK) dosing is suggested to bring plasma levels into the therapeutic range to promote fewer side effects and better patient outcomes. We investigated the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the My5-FU assay for PK dose adjustment to 5-FU therapy.

OBJECTIVES

To systematically review the evidence on the accuracy of the My5-FU assay compared with gold standard methods [high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS)]; the effectiveness of My5-FU PK dosing compared with BSA; the effectiveness of HPLC and/or LC-MS compared with BSA; the generalisability of published My5-FU and PK studies; costs of using My5-FU; to develop a cost-effectiveness model.

DATA SOURCES

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Science Citation Index and other databases between January and April 2014.

METHODS

Two reviewers independently screened titles and abstracts with arbitration and consensus agreement. We undertook quality assessment. We reconstructed Kaplan-Meier plots for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) for comparison of BSA and PK dosing. We developed a Markov model to compare My5-FU with BSA dosing which modelled PFS, OS and adverse events, using a 2-week cycle over a 20 year time horizon with a 3.5% discount rate. Health impacts were evaluated from the patient perspective, while costs were evaluated from the NHS and Personal Social Services perspective.

RESULTS

A total of 8341 records were identified through electronic searches and 35 and 54 studies were included in the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness reviews respectively. There was a high apparent correlation between My5-FU, HPLC and LC-MS/mass spectrometer but upper and lower limits of agreement were -18% to 30%. Median OS were estimated as 19.6 [95% confidence interval (CI) 17.0 to 21.0] months for PK versus 14.6 (95% CI 14.1 to 15.3) months for BSA for 5-FU+folinic acid (FA); and 27.4 (95% CI 23.2 to 38.8) months for PK versus 20.6 (95% CI 18.4 to 22.9) months for BSA for FOLFOX6 in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). PK versus BSA studies were generalisable to the relevant populations. We developed cost-effectiveness models for mCRC and H&N cancer. The base case assumed a cost per My5-FU assay of £ 61.03. For mCRC for 12 cycles of a oxaliplatin in combination with 5-fluorouracil and FA (FOLFOX) regimen, there was a quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gain of 0.599 with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £ 4148 per QALY. Probabilistic and scenario analyses gave similar results. The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve showed My5-FU to be 100% cost-effective at a threshold of £ 20,000 per QALY. For H&N cancer, again, given caveats about the poor evidence base, we also estimated that My5-FU is likely to be cost-effective at a threshold of £ 20,000 per QALY.

LIMITATIONS

Quality and quantity of evidence were very weak for PK versus BSA dosing for all cancers with no randomised controlled trials (RCTs) using current regimens. For H&N cancer, two studies of regimens no longer in use were identified.

CONCLUSIONS

Using a linked evidence approach, My5-FU appears to be cost-effective at a willingness to pay of £ 20,000 per QALY for both mCRC and H&N cancer. Considerable uncertainties remain about evidence quality and practical implementation. RCTs are needed of PK versus BSA dosing in relevant cancers.

Do-not-attempt-cardiopulmonary-resuscitation decisions: an evidence synthesis

Background

Cardiac arrest is the final common step in the dying process. In the right context, resuscitation can reverse the dying process, yet success rates are low. However, cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) is a highly invasive medical treatment, which, if applied in the wrong setting, can deprive the patient of dignified death. Do-not-attempt-cardiopulmonary-resuscitation (DNACPR) decisions provide a mechanism to withhold CPR. Recent scientific and lay press reports suggest that the implementation of DNACPR decisions in NHS practice is problematic.

Aims and objectives

This project sought to identify reasons why conflict and complaints arise, identify inconsistencies in NHS trusts’ implementation of national guidelines, understand health professionals’ experience in relation to DNACPR, its process and ethical challenges, and explore the literature for evidence to improve DNACPR policy and practice.

Methods

A systematic review synthesised evidence of processes, barriers and facilitators related to DNACPR decision-making and implementation. Reports from NHS trusts, the National Reporting and Learning System, the Parliamentary and Health Service Ombudsman, the Office of the Chief Coroner, trust resuscitation policies and telephone calls to a patient information line were reviewed. Multiple focus groups explored service-provider perspectives on DNACPR decisions. A stakeholder group discussed the research findings and identified priorities for future research.

Results

The literature review found evidence that structured discussions at admission to hospital or following deterioration improved patient involvement and decision-making. Linking DNACPR to overall treatment plans improved clarity about goals of care, aided communication and reduced harms. Standardised documentation improved the frequency and quality of recording decisions. Approximately 1500 DNACPR incidents are reported annually. One-third of these report harms, including some instances of death. Problems with communication and variation in trusts’ implementation of national guidelines were common. Members of the public were concerned that their wishes with regard to resuscitation would not be respected. Clinicians felt that DNACPR decisions should be considered within the overall care of individual patients. Some clinicians avoid raising discussions about CPR for fear of conflict or complaint. A key theme across all focus groups, and reinforced by the literature review, was the negative impact on overall patient care of having a DNACPR decision and the conflation of ‘do not resuscitate’ with ‘do not provide active treatment’.

Limitations

The variable quality of some data sources allows potential overstatement or understatement of findings. However, data source triangulation identified common issues.

Conclusion

There is evidence of variation and suboptimal practice in relation to DNACPR decisions across health-care settings. There were deficiencies in considering, discussing and implementing the decision, as well as unintended consequences of DNACPR decisions being made on other aspects of patient care.

Future work

Recommendations supported by the stakeholder group are standardising NHS policies and forms, ensuring cross-boundary recognition of DNACPR decisions, integrating decisions with overall treatment plans and developing tools and training strategies to support clinician and patient decision-making, including improving communication.

Study registration

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42012002669.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

Clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of elemental nutrition for the maintenance of remission in Crohn's disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Although enteral nutrition has been shown to be a viable treatment option for the management of active Crohn's disease (CD), the evidence regarding its clinical benefits compared with standard treatments (e.g. steroids) for maintaining remission in patients with CD has been inconsistent. If enteral nutrition was to be effective, the use of drugs such as steroids and immunosuppressive drugs could be reduced, thereby reducing the likelihood of adverse events associated with these medications.

OBJECTIVES

This systematic review aimed to assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of elemental nutrition (a type of enteral nutrition) for maintenance of remission in patients with CD.

DATA SOURCES

Major bibliographic databases (e.g. MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews) were searched from inception to August/September 2013. Searches were not limited by study design, language or publication date. Websites for relevant organisations and references of included studies were checked.

METHODS

Experimental randomised and non-randomised controlled trials (RCTs and nRCTs) reporting clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of elemental nutrition in the maintenance of remission in patients with CD were eligible. Study selection, data extraction and risk of bias (RoB) assessment were performed independently. Risk ratios (RRs) and mean differences (MDs) were pooled using a random-effects model. Heterogeneity was assessed via forest plots, Cochran's Q and the I2 statistics. Overall, quality of evidence for each outcome was rated using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation approach.

RESULTS

Eight studies (three RCTs and five nRCTs) were included in the review. RCTs indicated a significant benefit of elemental nutrition vs. no intervention (an unrestricted diet) in maintaining remission at 24 months [one RCT; RR 2.06, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00 to 4.43; very low-grade evidence] and preventing relapse at 12-24 months post baseline (two RCTs; pooled RR 0.57, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.84; I2 = 0%; high-grade evidence). Similarly, three nRCTs showed significant benefits of elemental nutrition over no intervention in maintaining remission at 12-48 months and preventing relapse at 12 months post baseline (MD 1.20 months, 95% CI 0.35 to 2.04 months). The incidence of mucosal healing was not significantly different in the intervention and control groups (RR 2.70, 95% CI 0.62 to 11.72). Adherence to an elemental nutrition regime was significantly worse than adherence to polymeric nutrition (RR 0.68, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.92) and, when compared with other active treatments (medications, polymeric nutrition or a combination), elemental nutrition yielded non-significant results with wide 95% CIs, rendering these results inconclusive. Complications and adverse events were too sparse to allow meaningful comparisons. None of the studies reported cost-effectiveness of elemental nutrition. Owing to scarcity of data, subgroup and sensitivity analyses could not be performed to explore methodological and clinical sources of heterogeneity.

LIMITATIONS

The findings warrant cautious interpretation given the limitations of the evidence in methodological quality (small samples, short follow-up) and the RoB in individual studies (lack of blinding, confounding).

CONCLUSIONS

Limited evidence indicates potential benefits of elemental nutrition against no intervention in the maintenance of remission and prevention of relapse in adult patients with CD. There was a lack or insufficient evidence on adverse events and complications. Future large and long-term randomised trials are warranted to draw more definitive conclusions regarding the effects of elemental nutrition in maintaining remission in CD.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42013005134.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Total hip replacement and surface replacement for the treatment of pain and disability resulting from end-stage arthritis of the hip (review of technology appraisal guidance 2 and 44): systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

Total hip replacement (THR) involves the replacement of a damaged hip joint with an artificial hip prosthesis. Resurfacing arthroplasty (RS) involves replacement of the joint surface of the femoral head with a metal surface covering.

OBJECTIVES

To undertake clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness analysis of different types of THR and RS for the treatment of pain and disability in people with end-stage arthritis of the hip, in particular to compare the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of (1) different types of primary THR and RS for people in whom both procedures are suitable and (2) different types of primary THR for people who are not suitable for hip RS.

DATA SOURCES

Electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, Current Controlled Trials and UK Clinical Research Network (UKCRN) Portfolio Database were searched in December 2012, with searches limited to publications from 2008 and sample sizes of ≥ 100 participants. Reference lists and websites of manufacturers and professional organisations were also screened.

REVIEW METHODS

Systematic reviews of the literature were undertaken to appraise the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different types of THR and RS for people with end-stage arthritis of the hip. Included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and systematic reviews were data extracted and risk of bias and methodological quality were independently assessed by two reviewers using the Cochrane Collaboration risk of bias tool and the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) tool. A Markov multistate model was developed for the economic evaluation of the technologies. Sensitivity analyses stratified by sex and controlled for age were carried out to assess the robustness of the results.

RESULTS

A total of 2469 records were screened of which 37 were included, representing 16 RCTs and eight systematic reviews. The mean post-THR Harris Hip Score measured at different follow-up times (from 6 months to 10 years) did not differ between THR groups, including between cross-linked polyethylene and traditional polyethylene cup liners (pooled mean difference 2.29, 95% confidence interval -0.88 to 5.45). Five systematic reviews reported evidence on different types of THR (cemented vs. cementless cup fixation and implant articulation materials) but these reviews were inconclusive. Eleven cost-effectiveness studies were included; four provided relevant cost and utility data for the model. Thirty registry studies were included, with no studies reporting better implant survival for RS than for all types of THR. For all analyses, mean costs for RS were higher than those for THR and mean quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were lower. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for RS was dominated by THR, that is, THR was cheaper and more effective than RS (for a lifetime horizon in the base-case analysis, the incremental cost of RS was £11,284 and the incremental QALYs were -0.0879). For all age and sex groups RS remained clearly dominated by THR. Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves showed that, for all patients, THR was almost 100% cost-effective at any willingness-to-pay level. There were age and sex differences in the populations with different types of THR and variations in revision rates (from 1.6% to 3.5% at 9 years). For the base-case analysis, for all age and sex groups and a lifetime horizon, mean costs for category E (cemented components with a polyethylene-on-ceramic articulation) were slightly lower and mean QALYs for category E were slightly higher than those for all other THR categories in both deterministic and probabilistic analyses. Hence, category E dominated the other four categories. Sensitivity analysis using an age- and sex-adjusted log-normal model demonstrated that, over a lifetime horizon and at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per QALY, categories A and E were equally likely (50%) to be cost-effective.

LIMITATIONS

A large proportion of the included studies were inconclusive because of poor reporting, missing data, inconsistent results and/or great uncertainty in the treatment effect estimates. This warrants cautious interpretation of the findings. The evidence on complications was scarce, which may be because of the absence or rarity of these events or because of under-reporting. The poor reporting meant that it was not possible to explore contextual factors that might have influenced study results and also reduced the applicability of the findings to routine clinical practice in the UK. The scope of the review was limited to evidence published in English in 2008 or later, which could be interpreted as a weakness; however, systematic reviews would provide summary evidence for studies published before 2008.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with THR, revision rates for RS were higher, mean costs for RS were higher and mean QALYs gained were lower; RS was dominated by THR. Similar results were obtained in the deterministic and probabilistic analyses and for all age and sex groups THR was almost 100% cost-effective at any willingness-to-pay level. Revision rates for all types of THR were low. Category A THR (cemented components with a polyethylene-on-metal articulation) was more cost-effective for older age groups. However, across all age-sex groups combined, the mean cost for category E THR (cemented components with a polyethylene-on-ceramic articulation) was slightly lower and the mean QALYs gained were slightly higher. Category E therefore dominated the other four categories. Certain types of THR appeared to confer some benefit, including larger femoral head sizes, use of a cemented cup, use of a cross-linked polyethylene cup liner and a ceramic-on-ceramic as opposed to a metal-on-polyethylene articulation. Further RCTs with long-term follow-up are needed.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42013003924.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

A systematic review of evidence on malignant spinal metastases: natural history and technologies for identifying patients at high risk of vertebral fracture and spinal cord compression

BACKGROUND

Spinal metastases can lead to significant morbidity and reduction in quality of life due to spinal cord compression (SCC). Between 5% and 20% of patients with spinal metastases develop metastatic spinal cord compression during the course of their disease. An early study estimated average survival for patients with SCC to be between 3 and 7 months, with a 36% probability of survival to 12 months. An understanding of the natural history and early diagnosis of spinal metastases and prediction of collapse of the metastatic vertebrae are important.

OBJECTIVES

To undertake a systematic review to examine the natural history of metastatic spinal lesions and to identify patients at high risk of vertebral fracture and SCC.

DATA SOURCES

The search strategy covered the concepts of metastasis, the spine and adults. Searches were undertaken from inception to June 2011 in 13 electronic databases [MEDLINE; MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations; EMBASE; Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews; Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL); Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE), NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), HTA databases (NHS Centre for Reviews and Dissemination); Science Citation Index and Conference Proceedings (Web of Science); UK Clinical Research Network (UKCRN) Portfolio Database; Current Controlled Trials; ClinicalTrials.gov].

REVIEW METHODS

Titles and abstracts of retrieved studies were assessed by two reviewers independently. Disagreement was resolved by consensus agreement. Full data were extracted independently by one reviewer. All included studies were reviewed by a second researcher with disagreements resolved by discussion. A quality assessment instrument was used to assess bias in six domains: study population, attrition, prognostic factor measurement, outcome measurement, confounding measurement and account, and analysis. Data were tabulated and discussed in a narrative review. Each tumour type was looked at separately.

RESULTS

In all, 2425 potentially relevant articles were identified, of which 31 met the inclusion criteria. No study examined natural history alone. Seventeen studies reported retrospective data, 10 were prospective studies, and three were other study designs. There was one systematic review. There were no randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Approximately 5782 participants were included. Sample sizes ranged from 41 to 859. The age of participants ranged between 7 and 92 years. Types of cancers reported on were lung alone (n= 3), prostate alone (n= 6), breast alone (n= 7), mixed cancers (n= 13) and unclear (n= 1). A total of 93 prognostic factors were identified as potentially significant in predicting risk of SCC or collapse. Overall findings indicated that the more spinal metastases present and the longer a patient was at risk, the greater the reported likelihood of development of SCC and collapse. There was an increased risk of developing SCC if a cancer had already spread to the bones. In the prostate cancer studies, tumour grade, metastatic load and time on hormone therapy were associated with increased risk of SCC. In one study, risk of SCC before death was 24%, and 2.37 times greater with a Gleason score ≥ 7 than with a score of < 7 (p= 0.003). Other research found that patients with six or more bone lesions were at greater risk of SCC than those with fewer than six lesions [odds ratio (OR) 2.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.012 to 8.35, p= 0.047]. For breast cancer patients who received a computerised tomography (CT) scan for suspected SCC, multiple logistic regression in one study identified four independent variables predictive of a positive test: bone metastases ≥ 2 years (OR 3.0 95% CI 1.2 to 7.6; p= 0.02); metastatic disease at initial diagnosis (OR 3.4, 95% CI 1.0 to 11.4; p= 0.05); objective weakness (OR 3.8, 95% CI 1.5 to 9.5; p= 0.005); and vertebral compression fracture on spine radiograph (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.0 to 6.5; p= 0.05). A further study on mixed cancers, among patients who received surgery for SCC, reported that vertebral body compression fractures were associated with presurgery chemotherapy (OR 2.283, 95% CI 1.064 to 4.898; p= 0.03), cancer type [primary breast cancer (OR 4.179, 95% CI 1.457 to 11.983; p= 0.008)], thoracic involvement (OR 3.505, 95% CI 1.343 to 9.143; p= 0.01) and anterior cord compression (OR 3.213, 95% CI 1.416 to 7.293; p= 0.005).

LIMITATIONS

Many of the included studies provided limited information about patient populations and selection criteria and they varied in methodological quality, rigour and transparency. Several studies identified type of cancer (e.g. breast, lung or prostate cancer) as a significant factor in predicting SCC, but it remains difficult to determine the risk differential partly because of residual bias. Consideration of quantitative results from the studies does not easily allow generation of a coherent numerical summary, studies were heterogeneous especially with regard to population, results were not consistent between studies, and study results almost universally lacked corroboration from other independent studies.

CONCLUSION

No studies were found which examined natural history. Overall burden of metastatic disease, confirmed metastatic bone involvement and immediate symptomatology suggestive of spinal column involvement are already well known as factors for metastatic SCC, vertebral collapse or progression of vertebral collapse. Although we identified a large number of additional possible prognostic factors, those which currently offer the most potential are unclear. Current clinical consensus favours magnetic resonance imaging and CT imaging modalities for the investigation of SCC and vertebral fracture. Future research should concentrate on: (1) prospective randomised designs to establish clinical and quality-of-life outcomes and cost-effectiveness of identification and treatment of patients at high risk of vertebral collapse and SCC; (2) Service Delivery and Organisation research on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans and scanning (in tandem with research studies on use of MRI to monitor progression) in order to understand best methods for maximising use of MRI scanners; and (3) investigation of prognostic algorithms to calculate probability of a specified event using high-quality prospective studies, involving defined populations, randomly selected and clearly identified samples, and with blinding of investigators.

FUNDING

This report was commissioned by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme NIHR HTA Programme as project number HTA 10/91/01.

Clinical effectiveness of manual therapy for the management of musculoskeletal and non-musculoskeletal conditions: systematic review and update of UK evidence report

BACKGROUND

This systematic review updated and extended the "UK evidence report" by Bronfort et al. (Chiropr Osteopath 18:3, 2010) with respect to conditions/interventions that received an 'inconclusive' or 'negative' evidence rating or were not covered in the report.

METHODS

A literature search of more than 10 general medical and specialised databases was conducted in August 2011 and updated in March 2013. Systematic reviews, primary comparative studies and qualitative studies of patients with musculoskeletal or non-musculoskeletal conditions treated with manual therapy and reporting clinical outcomes were included. Study quality was assessed using standardised instruments, studies were summarised, and the results were compared against the evidence ratings of Bronfort. These were either confirmed, updated, or new categories not assessed by Bronfort were added.

RESULTS

25,539 records were found; 178 new and additional studies were identified, of which 72 were systematic reviews, 96 were randomised controlled trials, and 10 were non-randomised primary studies. Most 'inconclusive' or 'moderate' evidence ratings of the UK evidence report were confirmed. Evidence ratings changed in a positive direction from inconclusive to moderate evidence ratings in only three cases (manipulation/mobilisation [with exercise] for rotator cuff disorder; spinal mobilisation for cervicogenic headache; and mobilisation for miscellaneous headache). In addition, evidence was identified on a large number of non-musculoskeletal conditions not previously considered; most of this evidence was rated as inconclusive.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, there was limited high quality evidence for the effectiveness of manual therapy. Most reviewed evidence was of low to moderate quality and inconsistent due to substantial methodological and clinical diversity. Areas requiring further research are highlighted.

Treatments for macular oedema following central retinal vein occlusion: systematic review

OBJECTIVES

To review systematically the randomised controlled trial (RCT) evidence for treatment of macular oedema due to central retinal vein occlusion (CRVO).

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, EMBASE, CDSR, DARE, HTA, NHSEED, CENTRAL and meeting abstracts (January 2005 to March 2013).

STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA, PARTICIPANTS AND INTERVENTIONS

RCTs with at least 12 months of follow-up assessing pharmacological treatments for CRVO were included with no language restrictions.

STUDY APPRAISAL AND SYNTHESIS METHODS

2 authors screened titles and abstracts and conducted data extracted and Cochrane risk of bias assessment. Meta-analysis was not possible due to lack of comparable studies.

RESULTS

8 studies (35 articles, 1714 eyes) were included, assessing aflibercept (n=2), triamcinolone (n=2), bevacizumab (n=1), pegaptanib (n=1), dexamethasone (n=1) and ranibizumab (n=1). In general, bevacizumab, ranibizumab, aflibercept and triamcinolone resulted in clinically significant increases in the proportion of participants with an improvement in visual acuity of ≥15 letters, with 40-60% gaining ≥15 letters on active drugs, compared to 12-28% with sham. Results for pegaptanib and dexamethasone were mixed. Steroids were associated with cataract formation and increased intraocular pressure. No overall increase in adverse events was found with bevacizumab, ranibizumab, aflibercept or pegaptanib compared with control. Quality of life was poorly reported. All studies had a low or unclear risk of bias.

LIMITATIONS

All studies evaluated a relatively short primary follow-up (1 year or less). Most had an unmasked extension phase. There was no head-to-head evidence. The majority of participants included had non-ischaemic CRVO.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS OF KEY FINDINGS

Bevacizumab, ranibizumab, aflibercept and triamcinolone appear to be effective in treating macular oedema secondary to CRVO. Long-term data on effectiveness and safety are needed. Head-to-head trials and research to identify 'responders' is needed to help clinicians make the right choices for their patients. Research aimed to improve sight in people with ischaemic CRVO is required.

Operationalizing early antiretroviral therapy in HIV-infected in-patients with opportunistic infections including tuberculosis

BACKGROUND

We describe the outcomes of a program in which antiretroviral therapy (ART) is offered to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected patients in South Africa admitted with tuberculosis (TB) or other opportunistic infection (OI) as part of in-patient care.

METHODS

Patients admitted with HIV and concurrent TB or other OI were initiated on early in-patient ART. The primary and secondary endpoints were respectively 24-week mortality and 24-week virologic suppression. Multivariable logistic regression modeling explored the associations between baseline (i.e., pre-hospital discharge) characteristics and mortality at 24 weeks.

RESULTS

A total of 382 patients were prospectively enrolled (48% women, median age 37 years, median CD4 count 33 cells/mm(3)). Acute OIs were pulmonary TB, 39%; extra-pulmonary TB, 25%; cryptococcal meningitis (CM), 10%; and chronic diarrhea, 9%. The median time from admission to ART initiation was 14 days (range 4-32, IQR 11-18). At 24 weeks of follow-up, as-treated and intention-to-treat virologic suppression were respectively 57% and 93%. Median change in CD4 cell count was +100 cells/mm(3), overall 24-week mortality was 25% and loss to follow-up, 5%. Excess mortality was not observed among patients with CM who initiated early ART. A longer interval between admission and ART was associated with mortality (>21 days vs. <21 days after admission OR 2.1, 95%CI 1.2-4.0, P = 0.016).

CONCLUSIONS

For HIV-infected in-patients with TB or an acquired immune-deficiency syndrome defining OI, we demonstrate the operational feasibility of early ART initiation in in-patients.

Belimumab: a technological advance for systemic lupus erythematosus patients? Report of a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

To undertake a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate clinical effectiveness of belimumab for patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and antinuclear and/or anti-double-stranded DNA (dsDNA) autoantibodies.

METHODS

We searched eight electronic databases and reference lists for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of belimumab against placebo or best supportive care. Quality assessment and random effects meta-analysis were undertaken.

DESIGN

A meta-analysis of RCTs.

PARTICIPANTS

2133 SLE patients.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

SLE Responder Index (SRI) at week 52.

RESULTS

Three double-blind placebo-controlled RCTs (L02, BLISS-52 BLISS-76) investigated 2133 SLE patients. BLISS-52 and BLISS-76 trials recruited patients with antinuclear and/or anti-dsDNA autoantibodies and demonstrated belimumab effectiveness for the SRI at week 52. Ethnicity and geographical location of participants varied considerably between BLISS trials. Although tests for statistical heterogeneity were negative, BLISS-52 results were systematically more favourable for all measured outcomes. Meta-analysis of pooled 52-week SRI BLISS results showed benefit for belimumab (OR 1.63, 95% CI 1.27 to 2.09). By week 76, the primary SRI outcome in BLISS-76 was not statistically significant (OR 1.31, 95% CI 0.919 to 1.855).

Systematic review of SGLT2 receptor inhibitors in dual or triple therapy in type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND

Despite the number of medications for type 2 diabetes, many people with the condition do not achieve good glycaemic control. Some existing glucose-lowering agents have adverse effects such as weight gain or hypoglycaemia. Type 2 diabetes tends to be a progressive disease, and most patients require treatment with combinations of glucose-lowering agents. The sodium glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) receptor inhibitors are a new class of glucose-lowering agents.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the clinical effectiveness and safety of the SGLT2 receptor inhibitors in dual or triple therapy in type 2 diabetes.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library (all sections); Science Citation Index; trial registries; conference abstracts; drug regulatory authorities; bibliographies of retrieved papers.

INCLUSION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials of SGLT2 receptor inhibitors compared with placebo or active comparator in type 2 diabetes in dual or combination therapy.

METHODS

Systematic review. Quality assessment used the Cochrane risk of bias score.

RESULTS

Seven trials, published in full, assessed dapagliflozin and one assessed canagliflozin. Trial quality appeared good. Dapagliflozin 10 mg reduced HbA1c by -0.54% (weighted mean differences (WMD), 95% CI -0.67 to -0.40) compared to placebo, but there was no difference compared to glipizide. Canagliflozin reduced HbA1c slightly more than sitagliptin (up to -0.21% vs sitagliptin). Both dapagliflozin and canagliflozin led to weight loss (dapagliflozin WMD -1.81 kg (95% CI -2.04 to -1.57), canagliflozin up to -2.3 kg compared to placebo).

LIMITATIONS

Long-term trial extensions suggested that effects were maintained over time. Data on canagliflozin are currently available from only one paper. Costs of the drugs are not known so cost-effectiveness cannot be assessed. More data on safety are needed, with the Food and Drug Administration having concerns about breast and bladder cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

Dapagliflozin appears effective in reducing HbA1c and weight in type 2 diabetes, although more safety data are needed.