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Rosenzweig C, Ruane AC, Antle J, Elliott J, Ashfaq M, Chatta AA, Ewert F, Folberth C, Hathie I, Havlik P, Hoogenboom G, Lotze-Campen H, MacCarthy DS, Mason-D'Croz D, Contreras EM, Müller C, Perez-Dominguez I, Phillips M, Porter C, Raymundo RM, Sands RD, Schleussner CF, Valdivia RO, Valin H, Wiebe K. Coordinating AgMIP data and models across global and regional scales for 1.5°C and 2.0°C assessments. Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci 2018; 376:20160455. [PMID: 29610385 PMCID: PMC5897826 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2016.0455] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/29/2017] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has developed novel methods for Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of agriculture and food security in a changing world. The present study aims to perform a proof of concept of the CGRA to demonstrate advantages and challenges of the proposed framework. This effort responds to the request by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the implications of limiting global temperature increases to 1.5°C and 2.0°C above pre-industrial conditions. The protocols for the 1.5°C/2.0°C assessment establish explicit and testable linkages across disciplines and scales, connecting outputs and inputs from the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs), Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble scenarios, global gridded crop models, global agricultural economics models, site-based crop models and within-country regional economics models. The CGRA consistently links disciplines, models and scales in order to track the complex chain of climate impacts and identify key vulnerabilities, feedbacks and uncertainties in managing future risk. CGRA proof-of-concept results show that, at the global scale, there are mixed areas of positive and negative simulated wheat and maize yield changes, with declines in some breadbasket regions, at both 1.5°C and 2.0°C. Declines are especially evident in simulations that do not take into account direct CO2 effects on crops. These projected global yield changes mostly resulted in increases in prices and areas of wheat and maize in two global economics models. Regional simulations for 1.5°C and 2.0°C using site-based crop models had mixed results depending on the region and the crop. In conjunction with price changes from the global economics models, productivity declines in the Punjab, Pakistan, resulted in an increase in vulnerable households and the poverty rate.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cynthia Rosenzweig
- Goddard Institute for Space Studies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA
| | - Alex C Ruane
- Goddard Institute for Space Studies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA
| | - John Antle
- Department of Applied Economics, Oregon State University, 213 Ballard Hall, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA
| | - Joshua Elliott
- Computation Institute, University of Chicago, 5735 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637, USA
| | - Muhammad Ashfaq
- University of Agriculture Faisalabad, University Main Road, Faisalabad, Pakistan
| | - Ashfaq Ahmad Chatta
- University of Agriculture Faisalabad, University Main Road, Faisalabad, Pakistan
| | - Frank Ewert
- INRES-Crop Science, University of Bonn, Katzenburgweg 5, 53115 Bonn, Germany
- Leibniz Center for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Eberswalder Strasse 84, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany
| | - Christian Folberth
- Ecosystems Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Ibrahima Hathie
- Initiative Prospective Agricole et Rurale, 67 Rond-Point VDN--Ouest Foire, BP 16788, Dakar-Fann, Senegal
| | - Petr Havlik
- Ecosystems Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Gerrit Hoogenboom
- Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, Frazier Rogers Hall, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
| | - Hermann Lotze-Campen
- Potsdam-Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung eV, PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
- Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, 10099 Berlin, Germany
| | - Dilys S MacCarthy
- Soil and Irrigation Research Centre, University of Ghana, PO Box LG 68, Kpong, Ghana
| | - Daniel Mason-D'Croz
- International Food Policy Research Institute, 1201 I Street NW, Washington, DC 20005, USA
- Commonwealth Science and Industrial Research Organisation, 306 Carmody Road, St Lucia, QLD 4067, Australia
| | - Erik Mencos Contreras
- Goddard Institute for Space Studies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA
| | - Christoph Müller
- Potsdam-Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung eV, PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
| | | | - Meridel Phillips
- Goddard Institute for Space Studies, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA
- Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA
| | - Cheryl Porter
- Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, Frazier Rogers Hall, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
| | - Rubi M Raymundo
- Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, Frazier Rogers Hall, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
| | - Ronald D Sands
- Economic Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture, 355 E Street SW, Washington, DC 20024, USA
| | - Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
- Potsdam-Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung eV, PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
- Climate Analytics, Ritterstrasse 3, 10969 Berlin, Germany
| | - Roberto O Valdivia
- Department of Applied Economics, Oregon State University, 213 Ballard Hall, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA
| | - Hugo Valin
- Ecosystems Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Keith Wiebe
- International Food Policy Research Institute, 1201 I Street NW, Washington, DC 20005, USA
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Alexander P, Prestele R, Verburg PH, Arneth A, Baranzelli C, Batista E Silva F, Brown C, Butler A, Calvin K, Dendoncker N, Doelman JC, Dunford R, Engström K, Eitelberg D, Fujimori S, Harrison PA, Hasegawa T, Havlik P, Holzhauer S, Humpenöder F, Jacobs-Crisioni C, Jain AK, Krisztin T, Kyle P, Lavalle C, Lenton T, Liu J, Meiyappan P, Popp A, Powell T, Sands RD, Schaldach R, Stehfest E, Steinbuks J, Tabeau A, van Meijl H, Wise MA, Rounsevell MDA. Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections. Glob Chang Biol 2017; 23:767-781. [PMID: 27474896 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13447] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2016] [Revised: 07/21/2016] [Accepted: 07/22/2016] [Indexed: 05/27/2023]
Abstract
Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter Alexander
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
- Land Economy and Environment Research Group, SRUC, West Mains Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3JG, UK
| | - Reinhard Prestele
- Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, Amsterdam, HV 1081, The Netherlands
| | - Peter H Verburg
- Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, Amsterdam, HV 1081, The Netherlands
| | - Almut Arneth
- Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, 82467, Germany
| | - Claudia Baranzelli
- Directorate B Innovation and Growth, Territorial Development Unit, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, Varese, 21027, Italy
| | - Filipe Batista E Silva
- Directorate B Innovation and Growth, Territorial Development Unit, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, Varese, 21027, Italy
| | - Calum Brown
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
| | - Adam Butler
- Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland, JCMB, King's Buildings, Edinburgh, EH9 3JZ, UK
| | - Katherine Calvin
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, 20740, USA
| | - Nicolas Dendoncker
- Department of Geography, Namur Research Group on Sustainable Development, University of Namur, Rue de Bruxelles 61, Namur, B-5000, Belgium
| | - Jonathan C Doelman
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), P.O. Box 303, Bilthoven, 3720 AH, The Netherlands
| | - Robert Dunford
- Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK
- Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP, UK
| | - Kerstin Engström
- Department of Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Paradisgatan 2, Lund, Sweden
| | - David Eitelberg
- Environmental Geography Group, Department of Earth Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, Amsterdam, HV 1081, The Netherlands
| | - Shinichiro Fujimori
- Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan
| | - Paula A Harrison
- Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg, Lancaster, LA1 4AP, UK
| | - Tomoko Hasegawa
- Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan
| | - Petr Havlik
- Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria
| | - Sascha Holzhauer
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
| | - Florian Humpenöder
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 60 12 03, Potsdam, 14412, Germany
| | - Chris Jacobs-Crisioni
- Directorate B Innovation and Growth, Territorial Development Unit, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, Varese, 21027, Italy
| | - Atul K Jain
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA
| | - Tamás Krisztin
- Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, A-2361, Austria
| | - Page Kyle
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, 20740, USA
| | - Carlo Lavalle
- Directorate B Innovation and Growth, Territorial Development Unit, European Commission, Via Fermi 2749, Varese, 21027, Italy
| | - Tim Lenton
- Earth System Science, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Laver Building (Level 7), North Parks Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
| | - Jiayi Liu
- Biomathematics & Statistics Scotland, JCMB, King's Buildings, Edinburgh, EH9 3JZ, UK
| | - Prasanth Meiyappan
- Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA
| | - Alexander Popp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 60 12 03, Potsdam, 14412, Germany
| | - Tom Powell
- Earth System Science, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Laver Building (Level 7), North Parks Road, Exeter, EX4 4QE, UK
| | - Ronald D Sands
- Resource and Rural Economics Division, US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Washington, DC, 20250, USA
| | - Rüdiger Schaldach
- Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Wilhelmshöher Allee 47, Kassel, D-34109, Germany
| | - Elke Stehfest
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), P.O. Box 303, Bilthoven, 3720 AH, The Netherlands
| | | | - Andrzej Tabeau
- LEI, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 29703, The Hague, 2502 LS, The Netherlands
| | - Hans van Meijl
- LEI, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 29703, The Hague, 2502 LS, The Netherlands
| | - Marshall A Wise
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, 20740, USA
| | - Mark D A Rounsevell
- School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK
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Prestele R, Alexander P, Rounsevell MDA, Arneth A, Calvin K, Doelman J, Eitelberg DA, Engström K, Fujimori S, Hasegawa T, Havlik P, Humpenöder F, Jain AK, Krisztin T, Kyle P, Meiyappan P, Popp A, Sands RD, Schaldach R, Schüngel J, Stehfest E, Tabeau A, Van Meijl H, Van Vliet J, Verburg PH. Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison. Glob Chang Biol 2016; 22:3967-3983. [PMID: 27135635 PMCID: PMC5111780 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13337] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/04/2016] [Accepted: 04/11/2016] [Indexed: 05/10/2023]
Abstract
Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Reinhard Prestele
- Environmental Geography GroupDepartment of Earth SciencesVrije Universiteit AmsterdamDe Boelelaan 10871081 HVAmsterdamThe Netherlands
| | - Peter Alexander
- School of GeoSciencesUniversity of EdinburghDrummond StreetEdinburghEH89XPUK
| | | | - Almut Arneth
- Department Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK‐IFU)Karlsruhe Institute of TechnologyKreuzeckbahnstr. 1982467Garmisch‐PartenkirchenGermany
| | - Katherine Calvin
- Joint Global Change Research InstitutePacific Northwest National LaboratoryCollege ParkMD20740USA
| | - Jonathan Doelman
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyP.O. Box 3033720AH BilthovenThe Netherlands
| | - David A. Eitelberg
- Environmental Geography GroupDepartment of Earth SciencesVrije Universiteit AmsterdamDe Boelelaan 10871081 HVAmsterdamThe Netherlands
| | - Kerstin Engström
- Department of Geography and Ecosystem ScienceLund UniversitySölvegatan 12LundSweden
| | - Shinichiro Fujimori
- Center for Social and Environmental Systems ResearchNational Institute for Environmental Studies16‐2 OnogawaTsukubaIbaraki305‐8506Japan
| | - Tomoko Hasegawa
- Center for Social and Environmental Systems ResearchNational Institute for Environmental Studies16‐2 OnogawaTsukubaIbaraki305‐8506Japan
| | - Petr Havlik
- Ecosystem Services and Management ProgramInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisA‐2361LaxenburgAustria
| | - Florian Humpenöder
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)P.O. Box 60 12 0314412PotsdamGermany
| | - Atul K. Jain
- Department of Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of IllinoisUrbanaIL61801USA
| | - Tamás Krisztin
- Ecosystem Services and Management ProgramInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisA‐2361LaxenburgAustria
| | - Page Kyle
- Joint Global Change Research InstitutePacific Northwest National LaboratoryCollege ParkMD20740USA
| | - Prasanth Meiyappan
- Department of Atmospheric SciencesUniversity of IllinoisUrbanaIL61801USA
| | - Alexander Popp
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)P.O. Box 60 12 0314412PotsdamGermany
| | - Ronald D. Sands
- Resource and Rural Economics DivisionEconomic Research ServiceUS Department of AgricultureWashingtonDC20250USA
| | - Rüdiger Schaldach
- Center for Environmental Systems ResearchUniversity of KasselWilhelmshöher Allee 47D‐34109KasselGermany
| | - Jan Schüngel
- Center for Environmental Systems ResearchUniversity of KasselWilhelmshöher Allee 47D‐34109KasselGermany
| | - Elke Stehfest
- PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyP.O. Box 3033720AH BilthovenThe Netherlands
| | - Andrzej Tabeau
- LEIWageningen University and Research CentreP.O. Box 297032502LS The HagueThe Netherlands
| | - Hans Van Meijl
- LEIWageningen University and Research CentreP.O. Box 297032502LS The HagueThe Netherlands
| | - Jasper Van Vliet
- Environmental Geography GroupDepartment of Earth SciencesVrije Universiteit AmsterdamDe Boelelaan 10871081 HVAmsterdamThe Netherlands
| | - Peter H. Verburg
- Environmental Geography GroupDepartment of Earth SciencesVrije Universiteit AmsterdamDe Boelelaan 10871081 HVAmsterdamThe Netherlands
- Swiss Federal Research Institute WSLZürcherstrasse 111CH‐8903BirmensdorfSwitzerland
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