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Durant SM, Mitchell N, Groom R, Pettorelli N, Ipavec A, Jacobson AP, Woodroffe R, Böhm M, Hunter LTB, Becker MS, Broekhuis F, Bashir S, Andresen L, Aschenborn O, Beddiaf M, Belbachir F, Belbachir-Bazi A, Berbash A, Brandao de Matos Machado I, Breitenmoser C, Chege M, Cilliers D, Davies-Mostert H, Dickman AJ, Ezekiel F, Farhadinia MS, Funston P, Henschel P, Horgan J, de Iongh HH, Jowkar H, Klein R, Lindsey PA, Marker L, Marnewick K, Melzheimer J, Merkle J, M'soka J, Msuha M, O'Neill H, Parker M, Purchase G, Sahailou S, Saidu Y, Samna A, Schmidt-Küntzel A, Selebatso E, Sogbohossou EA, Soultan A, Stone E, van der Meer E, van Vuuren R, Wykstra M, Young-Overton K. The global decline of cheetah Acinonyx jubatus and what it means for conservation. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2017; 114:528-533. [PMID: 28028225 PMCID: PMC5255576 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1611122114] [Citation(s) in RCA: 131] [Impact Index Per Article: 18.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Establishing and maintaining protected areas (PAs) are key tools for biodiversity conservation. However, this approach is insufficient for many species, particularly those that are wide-ranging and sparse. The cheetah Acinonyx jubatus exemplifies such a species and faces extreme challenges to its survival. Here, we show that the global population is estimated at ∼7,100 individuals and confined to 9% of its historical distributional range. However, the majority of current range (77%) occurs outside of PAs, where the species faces multiple threats. Scenario modeling shows that, where growth rates are suppressed outside PAs, extinction rates increase rapidly as the proportion of population protected declines. Sensitivity analysis shows that growth rates within PAs have to be high if they are to compensate for declines outside. Susceptibility of cheetah to rapid decline is evidenced by recent rapid contraction in range, supporting an uplisting of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List threat assessment to endangered. Our results are applicable to other protection-reliant species, which may be subject to systematic underestimation of threat when there is insufficient information outside PAs. Ultimately, conserving many of these species necessitates a paradigm shift in conservation toward a holistic approach that incentivizes protection and promotes sustainable human-wildlife coexistence across large multiple-use landscapes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sarah M Durant
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom;
- Wildlife Conservation Society, New York, NY 10460
- Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom
| | - Nicholas Mitchell
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom
- Wildlife Conservation Society, New York, NY 10460
| | - Rosemary Groom
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom
- Wildlife Conservation Society, New York, NY 10460
| | - Nathalie Pettorelli
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom
- Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom
| | - Audrey Ipavec
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom
- Wildlife Conservation Society, New York, NY 10460
| | - Andrew P Jacobson
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom
- Department of Geography, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom
| | - Rosie Woodroffe
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom
- Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom
| | - Monika Böhm
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom
- Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom
| | | | - Matthew S Becker
- Zambian Carnivore Programme, Mfuwe, Zambia
- Conservation Biology and Ecology Program, Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717
| | - Femke Broekhuis
- Wildlife Conservation Research Unit, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX13 5QL, United Kingdom
- Mara Cheetah Project, Kenya Wildlife Trust, Kenya
| | - Sultana Bashir
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom
| | - Leah Andresen
- Department of Zoology, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, Port Elizabeth 6031, South Africa
| | - Ortwin Aschenborn
- Bwabwata Ecological Institute, Susuwe Park Station, Zambezi Region, Ministry of Environment and Tourism, Namibia
| | - Mohammed Beddiaf
- Office National du Parc Culturel du Tassili N'Ajjer, Djanet, Algeria
| | - Farid Belbachir
- Laboratoire d'Écologie et Environnement, Université de Béjaïa, Béjaïa, Algeria
| | - Amel Belbachir-Bazi
- Laboratoire d'Écologie et Environnement, Université de Béjaïa, Béjaïa, Algeria
| | - Ali Berbash
- Nature Conservation Department, Environment General Authority (EGA), Tripoli, Libya
| | | | - Christine Breitenmoser
- Carnivore Ecology and Wildlife Management (KORA), 3074 Muri, Switzerland
- International Union for the Conservation of Nature/Species Survival Commission Cat Specialist Group, 3074 Muri, Switzerland
| | | | | | | | - Amy J Dickman
- Wildlife Conservation Research Unit, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX13 5QL, United Kingdom
| | - Fabiano Ezekiel
- Department of Wildlife Management and Ecotourism, University of Namibia, Windhoek, Namibia
| | - Mohammad S Farhadinia
- Wildlife Conservation Research Unit, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX13 5QL, United Kingdom
| | | | | | - Jane Horgan
- Cheetah Conservation Botswana, Gaborone, Botswana
| | - Hans H de Iongh
- Institute of Environmental Sciences, Leiden University, 2300 RA Leiden, The Netherlands
| | - Houman Jowkar
- Persian Wildlife Heritage Foundation, Tehran 15856-86341, Iran
- Conservation of Asiatic Cheetah Program, Department of Environment, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | | | | | - Joerg Melzheimer
- Department Evolutionary Ecology, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, 10315 Berlin, Germany
| | | | - Jassiel M'soka
- Department of National Parks and Wildlife, Chilanga, Zambia
| | - Maurus Msuha
- Tanzania Wildlife Research Institute, Arusha, Tanzania
| | - Helen O'Neill
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom
- Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom
| | - Megan Parker
- Working Dogs for Conservation, Bozeman, MT 59771
| | - Gianetta Purchase
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London NW1 4RY, United Kingdom
| | - Samaila Sahailou
- Direction de la Faune, de la Chasse et des Aires Protégées, Niamey, Niger
| | - Yohanna Saidu
- Nigeria National Park Service, Garki, Abuja, Nigeria
| | - Abdoulkarim Samna
- Direction de la Faune, de la Chasse et des Aires Protégées, Niamey, Niger
| | | | | | | | | | - Emma Stone
- Carnivore Research Malawi, Conservation Research Africa, Lilongwe, Malawi
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