Fostering Coexistence Between People and Large Carnivores in Africa: Using a Theory of Change to Identify Pathways to Impact and Their Underlying Assumptions

Coexistence with large carnivores poses challenges to human well-being, livelihoods, development, resource management, and policy. Even where people and carnivores have historically coexisted, traditional patterns of behavior toward large carnivores may be disrupted by wider processes of economic, social, political, and climate change. Conservation interventions have typically focused on changing behaviors of those living alongside large carnivores to promote sustainable practices. While these interventions remain important, their success is inextricably linked to broader socio-political contexts, including natural resource governance and equitable distribution of conservation-linked costs and benefits. In this context we propose a Theory of Change to identify logical pathways of action through which coexistence with large carnivores can be enhanced. We focus on Africa's dryland landscapes, known for their diverse guild of large carnivores that remain relatively widespread across the continent. We review the literature to understand coexistence and its challenges; explain our Theory of Change, including expected outcomes and pathways to impact; and discuss how our model could be implemented and operationalized. Our analysis draws on the experience of coauthors, who are scientists and practitioners, and on literature from conservation, political ecology, and anthropology to explore the challenges, local realities, and place-based conditions under which expected outcomes succeed or fail. Three pathways to impact were identified: (a) putting in place good governance harmonized across geographic scales; (b) addressing coexistence at the landscape level; and (c) reducing costs and increasing benefits of sharing a landscape with large carnivores. Coordinated conservation across the extensive, and potentially transboundary, landscapes needed by large carnivores requires harmonization of top-down approaches with bottom-up community-based conservation. We propose adaptive co-management approaches combined with processes for active community engagement and informed consent as useful dynamic mechanisms for navigating through this contested space, while enabling adaptation to climate change. Success depends on strengthening underlying enabling conditions, including governance, capacity, local empowerment, effective monitoring, and sustainable financial support. Implementing the Theory of Change requires ongoing monitoring and evaluation to inform adaptation and build confidence in the model. Overall, the model provides a flexible and practical framework that can be adapted to dynamic local socio-ecological contexts.

The distribution and numbers of cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) in southern Africa

Assessing the numbers and distribution of threatened species is a central challenge in conservation, often made difficult because the species of concern are rare and elusive. For some predators, this may be compounded by their being sparsely distributed over large areas. Such is the case with the cheetah Acinonyx jubatus. The IUCN Red List process solicits comments, is democratic, transparent, widely-used, and has recently assessed the species. Here, we present additional methods to that process and provide quantitative approaches that may afford greater detail and a benchmark against which to compare future assessments. The cheetah poses challenges, but also affords unique opportunities. It is photogenic, allowing the compilation of thousands of crowd-sourced data. It is also persecuted for killing livestock, enabling estimation of local population densities from the numbers persecuted. Documented instances of persecution in areas with known human and livestock density mean that these data can provide an estimate of where the species may or may not occur in areas without observational data. Compilations of extensive telemetry data coupled with nearly 20,000 additional observations from 39 sources show that free-ranging cheetahs were present across approximately 789,700 km2 of Namibia, Botswana, South Africa, and Zimbabwe (56%, 22%, 12% and 10% respectively) from 2010 to 2016, with an estimated adult population of 3,577 animals. We identified a further 742,800 km2 of potential cheetah habitat within the study region with low human and livestock densities, where another ∼3,250 cheetahs may occur. Unlike many previous estimates, we make the data available and provide explicit information on exactly where cheetahs occur, or are unlikely to occur. We stress the value of gathering data from public sources though these data were mostly from well-visited protected areas. There is a contiguous, transboundary population of cheetah in southern Africa, known to be the largest in the world. We suggest that this population is more threatened than believed due to the concentration of about 55% of free-ranging individuals in two ecoregions. This area overlaps with commercial farmland with high persecution risk; adult cheetahs were removed at the rate of 0.3 individuals per 100 km2 per year. Our population estimate for confirmed cheetah presence areas is 11% lower than the IUCN's current assessment for the same region, lending additional support to the recent call for the up-listing of this species from vulnerable to endangered status.

The global decline of cheetah Acinonyx jubatus and what it means for conservation

Establishing and maintaining protected areas (PAs) are key tools for biodiversity conservation. However, this approach is insufficient for many species, particularly those that are wide-ranging and sparse. The cheetah Acinonyx jubatus exemplifies such a species and faces extreme challenges to its survival. Here, we show that the global population is estimated at ∼7,100 individuals and confined to 9% of its historical distributional range. However, the majority of current range (77%) occurs outside of PAs, where the species faces multiple threats. Scenario modeling shows that, where growth rates are suppressed outside PAs, extinction rates increase rapidly as the proportion of population protected declines. Sensitivity analysis shows that growth rates within PAs have to be high if they are to compensate for declines outside. Susceptibility of cheetah to rapid decline is evidenced by recent rapid contraction in range, supporting an uplisting of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List threat assessment to endangered. Our results are applicable to other protection-reliant species, which may be subject to systematic underestimation of threat when there is insufficient information outside PAs. Ultimately, conserving many of these species necessitates a paradigm shift in conservation toward a holistic approach that incentivizes protection and promotes sustainable human-wildlife coexistence across large multiple-use landscapes.

Movement patterns of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) in farmlands in Botswana

Botswana has the second highest population of cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) with most living outside protected areas. As a result, many cheetahs are found in farming areas which occasionally results in human-wildlife conflict. This study aimed to look at movement patterns of cheetahs in farming environments to determine whether cheetahs have adapted their movements in these human-dominated landscapes. We fitted high-time resolution GPS collars to cheetahs in the Ghanzi farmlands of Botswana. GPS locations were used to calculate home range sizes as well as number and duration of visits to landscape features using a time-based local convex hull method. Cheetahs had medium-sized home ranges compared to previously studied cheetah in similar farming environments. Results showed that cheetahs actively visited scent marking trees and avoided visiting homesteads. A slight preference for visiting game farms over cattle farms was found, but there was no difference in duration of visits between farm types. We conclude that cheetahs selected for areas that are important for their dietary and social needs and prefer to avoid human-occupied areas. Improved knowledge of how cheetahs use farmlands can allow farmers to make informed decisions when developing management practices and can be an important tool for reducing human-wildlife conflict.

Cheetah Reunion - The Challenge of Finding Your Friends Again

Animals navigate their environment using a variety of senses and strategies. This multiplicity enables them to respond to different navigational requirements resulting from habitat, scale and purpose. One of the challenges social animals face is how to reunite after periods of separation. We explore a variety of possible mechanisms used to reunite the members of a cheetah coalition dispersed within a large area after prolonged separation. Using GPS data from three cheetahs reuniting after weeks of separation, we determined that 1) the likelihood of purely coincidental reunion is miniscule 2) the reunion occurred in an area not normally frequented 3) with very little time spent in the region in advance of the reunion. We therefore propose that timely encounter of scent markings where paths cross is the most likely mechanism used to aid the reunion.

Trends in medical student use of tobacco, alcohol and drugs in an Irish university, 1973-2002

Questionnaire surveys of medical students in an Irish university were carried out in 1973 (n=765), 1990 (n=522) and 2002 (n=537), with differentiation of western students (e.g., from the Republic of Ireland, the UK, or Australia) and non-western students (e.g., Malaysia). We report on changes in tobacco smoking, drinking and drug-taking over three decades, and we note that, among western students, estimated prevalence of being a current smoker has declined overall from 28.8% in 1973 to 15.3% in 1990 to 9.2% in 2002 (p<0.001), falling in both males (p<0.001) and females (p<0.01). Ex-smokers rose from 5.9% to 15.1% between 1990 and 2002, corresponding with the decline in current smokers. The prevalence of current drinkers has risen over the period, to 82.5% among western students in 2002 (p<0.05); female drinking has increased steadily since 1973 (p<0.001), and the overall proportion of CAGE-positive drinkers has risen since 1990 (p<0.001). The mean weekly alcohol consumption has risen in both sexes since 1990 (males 14.3 units to 19.4, p<0.01; females 6.0 to 9.5, p<0.001). There was an increase in the proportion of students ever offered drugs between 1973 and 2002 (p<0.001). Although smoking rates have fallen, our findings show a marked increase in alcohol and drug consumption between 1973 and 2002. Personal misuse of addictive substances by doctors may mean that doctors will fail to take misuse by patients seriously. A need for preventative and ameliorative action during the medical school years is clear.

Anginal headache and its basis

A case is presented of angina manifesting itself initially solely as vertex and occipital headache, accompanied by EKG changes, provoked by exercise and relieved by rest. It was totally relieved by coronary bypass surgery and, later, by angioplasty. Its mechanism is probably a variation on the neural convergence usually invoked to explain the more typical chest pain angina.

Are butter and cheese rich in monounsaturates beneficial in hyperlipidaemic patients?

BACKGROUND

Reduction in intake of dairy products has long been recommended to reduce blood lipids. The value of monounsaturated fatty acids is increasingly recognized.

METHODS

We evaluated the effects of a monounsaturate-rich butter and cheese (B) produced by modifying the bovine diet on blood lipid levels of patients with type IIa hyperlipidaemia. We compared their effects with those of normal butter and cheese (A) and polyunsaturate-rich spread and cheese (C). Using a double cross-over design, we studied 30 patients of mean age 56.4 years (23 men, one woman excluded) over 6-week periods.

RESULTS

Approximately 35.5 g/day butter/cheese were consumed; no changes in serum total cholesterol, triglycerides, low-density lipoprotein, lipoprotein (a) or cholesterol: high-density lipoprotein (HDL) ratio were observed. HDL levels were higher in B(1.31 mmol/l) than in C (1.22 mmol/l; P < 0.05) and similar to those in A (1.28 mmol/l). HDL2 levels were higher in patients fed diet A(0.23 mmol/l) than they were in those fed diet C (0.19 mmol/l; P < 0.05) and similar to those in patients fed diet B (0.20 mmol/l). Serum HDL3 was significantly higher in patients fed diet B (1.11 mmol/l) than in those fed diet C (1.03 mmol/l; P < 0.05) but similar to that in patients fed diet A (1.06 mmol/l).

CONCLUSIONS

Moderate intake of modified dairy products may be of value and deserves further evaluation.

Long-term successful management of refractory congestive cardiac failure by intermittent ambulatory peritoneal ultrafiltration

Despite advances in the pharmacological management of cardiac failure, some patients remain refractory to this therapy. However, improved understanding of the physiology and technique of peritoneal dialysis has recently allowed ambulatory peritoneal ultrafiltration to be applied to the treatment of patients with intractable heart failure. We report the management of three such patients with New York Heart Association (NYHA) class IV cardiac failure, each with a left ventricular ejection fraction < 20%. They had become unresponsive to maximum pharmacological management with inotropes, diuretics and ACE inhibitors. All patients had biochemical evidence of pre-renal azotemia. Initially, patients received aggressive ultrafiltration by continuous veno-venous haemofiltration (CVVH) or one- to two-hourly peritoneal dialysis exchanges until they achieved an optimal dry body weight. Once stabilized, they were converted to an intermittent ambulatory peritoneal ultrafiltration (IAPU) regimen of one to three exchanges per 24 h according to their individual needs. During an 18 +/- 10-month follow-up, their duration of hospital confinement was reduced by 85% and all three patients improved from class IV to class II cardiac failure. IAPU may have a useful role in the long-term management of intractable heart failure in a selected group of patients.