Diversity of the free helical rim flap: A case series tailoring the microsurgical technique to esthetically optimize full-thickness nasal defect reconstructions

INTRODUCTION

The free helical rim (FHR) flap offers like-with-like reconstruction for full-thickness nasal defects. A case series of nasal reconstruction using an FHR flap was presented, detailing surgical steps and refinements, as well as functional and esthetic outcomes.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

This is a retrospective cohort study of composite nasal defect reconstruction with FHR flap from August 2018 to March 2020. Descriptive data were analyzed by SPSS software.

RESULTS

Six cases were recruited, four were unilateral alar defects, one was hemi-nose, and one was ala plus tip. The average size of the defect was 2.5 × 2.8 cm2. Three FHR flaps were designed with retrograde pedicles and three with anterograde pedicles. The facial artery and veins were the recipient vessels in all cases. Vascular grafts were used in all six cases. Descending branch of the lateral circumflex femoral (DLCxF) artery and vein functioned as interposition vascular conduits in five cases. Superficial forearm vein grafts were used in one case. One patient needed flap re-exploration due to venous congestion. One patient had partial flap necrosis due to delayed infection, and one developed delayed wound dehiscence in the irradiated wound. The average follow-up was 18 months.

CONCLUSION

The FHR flap has consistent vascular anatomy. It can be raised as an anterograde or retrograde flap for a contralateral or ipsilateral inset. FHR flap can be used in extensive composite nasal defects. This case series demonstrates that interposition vascular grafts are invariably needed and the possibility of using forearm vessels as grafts instead of DLCxF artery and vein.

Evaluation of prognostic risk models for postoperative pulmonary complications in adult patients undergoing major abdominal surgery: a systematic review and international external validation cohort study

BACKGROUND

Stratifying risk of postoperative pulmonary complications after major abdominal surgery allows clinicians to modify risk through targeted interventions and enhanced monitoring. In this study, we aimed to identify and validate prognostic models against a new consensus definition of postoperative pulmonary complications.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and international external validation cohort study. The systematic review was done in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. We searched MEDLINE and Embase on March 1, 2020, for articles published in English that reported on risk prediction models for postoperative pulmonary complications following abdominal surgery. External validation of existing models was done within a prospective international cohort study of adult patients (≥18 years) undergoing major abdominal surgery. Data were collected between Jan 1, 2019, and April 30, 2019, in the UK, Ireland, and Australia. Discriminative ability and prognostic accuracy summary statistics were compared between models for the 30-day postoperative pulmonary complication rate as defined by the Standardised Endpoints in Perioperative Medicine Core Outcome Measures in Perioperative and Anaesthetic Care (StEP-COMPAC). Model performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC).

FINDINGS

In total, we identified 2903 records from our literature search; of which, 2514 (86·6%) unique records were screened, 121 (4·8%) of 2514 full texts were assessed for eligibility, and 29 unique prognostic models were identified. Nine (31·0%) of 29 models had score development reported only, 19 (65·5%) had undergone internal validation, and only four (13·8%) had been externally validated. Data to validate six eligible models were collected in the international external validation cohort study. Data from 11 591 patients were available, with an overall postoperative pulmonary complication rate of 7·8% (n=903). None of the six models showed good discrimination (defined as AUROCC ≥0·70) for identifying postoperative pulmonary complications, with the Assess Respiratory Risk in Surgical Patients in Catalonia score showing the best discrimination (AUROCC 0·700 [95% CI 0·683-0·717]).

INTERPRETATION

In the pre-COVID-19 pandemic data, variability in the risk of pulmonary complications (StEP-COMPAC definition) following major abdominal surgery was poorly described by existing prognostication tools. To improve surgical safety during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery and beyond, novel risk stratification tools are required.

FUNDING

British Journal of Surgery Society.

OP0012 INTERFERON-α MEDIATED THERAPEUTIC RESISTANCE IN EARLY RA IMPLICATES EPIGENETIC REPROGRAMMING

Background

An interferon gene signature (IGS) is present in approximately 50% of early, treatment naive rheumatoid arthritis (eRA) patients. We previously demonstrated it negatively impacts on initial disease outcomes.

Objectives

To 1) reproduce previous findings demonstrating the harmful effects of the IGS on early RA clinical outcomes, 2) identify which IFN class is responsible for the IGS and 3) seek evidence that IFN-α exposure contributes to harmful epigenetic footprint at disease onset.

Methods

In a large multicentre inception cohort (n=190) of eRA patients (RA-MAP TACERA) whole blood transcriptome, IGS (MxA, IFI44L, OAS1, ISG15, IFI6) and circulating interferons (IFN)-α, -β, -γ and -λ was examined at baseline and 6 months in conjunction with disease activity and clinical characteristics. A separate eRA cohort of paired methylome and transcriptome from CD4 T and CD19 B cells (n=41 for each) was used to explore any epigenetic influence of the IGS.

Results

The baseline IGS reproducibly and significantly negatively impacts on 6-month clinical outcomes. In the high IGS cohort there was increased DAS-28 (p=0.025) and reduced probability of achieving a good EULAR response (p=0.034) at 6-months. In addition, the IGS in eRA is shown for the first time to predominantly reflect raised circulating IFN-α protein, not other classes of IFN and examination of whole blood upstream nucleic acid sensors expression suggest a RNA trigger. Both the IGS and IFN-α significantly fell in parallel at 6 months (p<0.0001), whereas other classes of IFN remained statistically static. There was a significant association with IFN-α and RF titre but not ACPA. Comparison of CD4 T and CD19 B cells between IGS high and low eRA patients demonstrated differentially methylated CPG sites and altered transcript expression of disease relevant genes e.g. PARP9, STAT1, EPTSI1 which was similarly, and persistently, altered 6 months in the separate TACERA cohort. Differentially methylated CPGs implicated altered transcription factor binding in B cells (GATA3, ETSI, NFATC2, EZH2) and T cells (p300, HIF1α) which cumulatively suggested IFN-α induced epigenetic changes promoting increased, and sustained, lymphocyte activation, proliferation and loss of anergy in the IGS high cohort.

Conclusion

We validate that the IGS is a robust prognostic biomarker in eRA predicting poor therapeutic response. Its persistent harmful effects may be driven via epigenetic modifications. These data have relevance for other IFN-α states, such as COVID-19, but also provide a rationale for the initial therapeutic targeting of IFN-α signalling, such as with JAKi, at disease onset in stratified eRA subsets.

References

nil

Acknowledgements

JDI is a National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Senior Investigator. The authors acknowledge the support of TACERA Principal Investigators from all contributing NHS sites and the members of the TACERA Study Steering and Data Monitoring Committee. Additional acknowledgements include patient volunteers and administrative support from Ben Hargreaves. Newcastle researchers received infrastructural support via the Versus Arthritis Research into Inflammatory Arthritis Centre (Ref 22072), funding from The Medical Research Council; Academy of Medical Sciences; British Society of Rheumatology; The Wellcome Trust; JGW Patterson Foundation; Immune-Mediated Inflammatory Disease Biobank in the UK (IMID-Bio-UK), ANR and RTCure. This work was supported by the NIHR Newcastle Biomedical Research Centre at Newcastle Hospitals Foundation Trust and Newcastle University; views expressed are the authors’ and not necessarily those of the National Health Service, the National Institute of Health Research or the Department of Health.

Disclosure of Interests

Faye Cooles Speakers bureau: Astrazeneca: December 2021, Jessica Tarn: None declared, Dennis Lendrem: None declared, Najib Naamane: None declared, Alice Lin: None declared, Ben Millar: None declared, Nicola Maney: None declared, Nishanthi Thalayasingam: None declared, Vincent Bondet: None declared, Darragh Duffy: None declared, Michael Barnes: None declared, Graham Smith: None declared, Sandra Ng: None declared, David Watson: None declared, Rafael Henkin: None declared, Andrew Cope: None declared, Louise Reynard: None declared, Arthur Pratt: None declared, RA-MAP Consortium: None declared, John Isaacs Speakers bureau: speaker/consulting fees from AbbVie, Gilead, Roche and UCB., Grant/research support from: JDI discloses research grants from Pfizer, Janssen and GSK.

The curious case of missing heartbeats

Paroxysmal atrioventricular block (AVB) is a poorly defined and easily missed bradyarrhythmia, which can potentially lead to sudden cardiac death. It is under-recognised due to its abrupt onset and unpredictability. We describe a case that had paroxysmal AVB post-coronary angioplasty and highlight the mechanism as well as the management of this rare condition.

New developments in defecatory studies based on biomechatronics

Introduction

Defecation is a complex process that is difficult to study and analyze directly. In anorectal disease conditions, the defecation process may be disturbed, resulting in symptoms including fecal incontinence and constipation. Current state-of-the-art technology measures various aspects of anorectal function but detailed analysis is impossible because they are stand-alone tests rather than an integrated multi-dimensional test.

Objectives

The need for physiologically-relevant and easy-to-use diagnostic tests for identifying underlying mechanisms is substantial. We aimed to advance the field with integrated technology for anorectal function assessment.

Methods

We developed a simulated stool named Fecobionics that integrates several tests to assess defecation pressures, dimensions, shape, orientation and bending during evacuation. A novelty is that pressures are measured in axial direction, i.e. in the direction of the trajectory. Using this novel tool, we present new analytical methods to calculate physiologically relevant parameters during expulsion in normal human subjects.

Results

Data are reported from 28 human subjects with progressively more advanced versions of Fecobionics. A new concept utilizes the rear-front pressure (preload-afterload) diagram for computation of novel defecation indices. Fecobionics obtained physiological data that cannot be obtained with current state-of-the-art technologies.

Conclusion

Fecobionics measures well known parameters such as expulsion time and pressures as well as new metrics including defecation indices. The study suggests that Fecobionics is effective in evaluation of key defecatory parameters and well positioned as an integrated technology for assessment of anorectal function and dysfunction.

106 Stentolith As an Uncommon Complication of Loss to Follow Up After Endoscopic Biliary Stenting

Introduction

Endoscopic biliary stenting is a common procedure, with indications from malignant obstruction to benign stone disease. We discuss a patient who re-presented after endoscopic stenting having been lost to follow up, with a large ‘stentolith’ requiring open CBD exploration.

Case Presentation

A 56-year-old female presented in 2013 with obstructive jaundice and a 2-week history of abdominal pain. She was a smoker, but otherwise had no past medical, surgical, or relevant family history. After initial workup, ERCP with sphincterotomy and pigtail stent placement was performed with interval laparoscopic cholecystectomy in 2014. Post-operative follow up was not arranged, and the patient subsequently re-presented in 2020 with fatigue. MRCP confirmed a proximal CBD stone and linear artefact. Open exploration facilitated removal of the stone-stent complex.

Discussion

Complications of stenting include cholangitis, stent occlusion and migration [2]. Stenting for failed biliary stone extraction is considered a temporary measure, with removal or exchange at three months (1). However, patients may be lost to follow up and return with non-specific symptoms. A rare cause is de novo formation of a gallstone calculus encasing the stent, a phenomenon termed “stentolith” [4]. Proposed pathophysiology is through promotion of bacterial proliferation by the stent, with biofilm formation and calcium bilirubinate precipitation [6]. Variation in formation has been described, with plastic stents developing circumferential stones [12-25], due to potential space between the wall and stent.

Conclusions

This highlights the importance of robust inter-disciplinary working; careful patient follows up and implementation of a mandatory registry at all hospitals for stented patients.

Intrauterine immunizations trigger antigen-specific mucosal and systemic immunity in pigs and passive protection in suckling piglets

We assessed whether vaccines administered to the uterus at breeding can lead to sufficient colostral antibodies to protect suckling piglets against Porcine Endemic Diarrhea Virus (PEDV). An antigen from Lawsonia intracellularis, a disease that impacts weanling intestinal health, was also included because we have extensive knowledge on the pig immune response to this antigen. Gilts were mock-bred at 2nd estrus with killed sperm including an intrauterine (i.u.) vaccine comprised of recombinant (r) PEDV Spike protein (rPEDVS1) and L. intracellularis flagellin (rFliC) formulated with poly I:C, host defense peptide, and polyphosphazene (TriAdj). Gilts returned to estrus within 3 weeks and they were inseminated with killed sperm (3rd estrus) or live sperm (4th estrus) with rPEDVS1-TriAdj vaccine. They also received an i.m. injection of rFliC-TriAdj at 3rd and 4th estrus to establish whether i.u. vaccination primes systemic immunity without inducing mucosal tolerance. Control gilts were administered semen alone at 2nd estrus which allowed us to compare litter weights and sizes to industry standards. Colostrum from gilts challenged with low dose PEDV plus alum was used as positive reference samples for neutralizing antibodies and passive protection. Thirteen weeks later, the i.u.-vaccinated gilts showed significant PEDVS1-specific serum, colostral, and uterine antibody titers and colostral PEDVS1-neutralizing antibodies but poor cell-mediated immunity. Piglets born to i.u. vaccinated gilts received partial passive protection from PEDV infection 3 days after birth but eventually succumbed to the disease. Immunization by the i.u./i.m. route triggered significant anti-FliC cell-mediated immunity and colostral FliC antibodies that remained high in weaned piglet serum. This trial and a repeat trial wherein gilts were immunized at 1st estrus without semen and at 2nd estrus with live semen showed that intrauterine immunization did not impact fertility, number of live births or piglet growth kinetics. Further optimization is needed to promote robust passive protection in suckling offspring.

P–385 The relationship between systemic oestradiol and vaginal microbiota composition in miscarriage and normal pregnancy

Study question

Is there an association between serum oestradiol, vaginal microbial composition and pregnancy outcome in the early first trimester?

Summary answer

In women with a vaginal microbiome deplete of Lactobacillus species at the time of Pregnancy of Uncertain Viability (IPUV), higher serum oestradiol associates with livebirth.

What is known already

During pregnancy, oestradiol mediates vaginal mucosal properties and increases glycogen deposition in epithelial cells which is thought to support colonisation of Lactobacillus species. Low levels of Lactobacillus associates with adverse outcomes such as miscarriage and preterm birth. The direct relationship between systemic oestradiol and the vaginal microbiome has never been studied in pregnancy. However studies have shown a positive correlation between serum oestrone, vaginal glycogen and Lactobacillus abundance in menopausal women.

Study design, size, duration

This was a prospective cohort study where one-hundred women were recruited in early pregnancy at the time of IPUV and donated paired blood and vaginal samples. 40 women had an eventual miscarriage, 58 had a livebirth and two pregnancies were terminated. All 100 women donated one paired serum and vaginal sample at this time point, and 22 women with Lactobacillus depletion at the time of IPUV donated further longitudinal vaginal samples.

Participants/materials, setting, methods

Participants were recruited from an Early Pregnancy Unit and underwent transvaginal ultrasound assessment of their pregnancy. Serum samples were analysed with an immunoassay on a ROCHE COBAS E411 analyser for Oestradiol (pg/ml) and Progesterone (ng/ml). Bacterial DNA was extracted from paired vaginal swabs and sequenced using Illumina MiSeq sequencing of 16S rRNA gene amplicons.

Main results and the role of chance

Lactobacillus dominance of the vagina was associated with higher serum levels of E2 and progesterone compared to depletion (E2=398pg/ml vs 302pg/ml(p = 0.02), P4=23.1ng/ml vs 17ng/ml(p = 0.02)). E2 and P4 were positively correlated (r = 0.6, p &lt; 0.05). At species level, L. crispatus dominance associated with significantly higher levels of E2 compared to high-diversity communities (468pg/ml vs 302pg/ml(p = 0.03) but no such relationship was observed for P4. Both E2 and P4 levels were lower in women who eventually miscarried. However there was no significant difference in the vaginal bacterial composition at genera or species level at this early gestational age (P = 0.08) regardless of per vaginal bleeding. However in women with Lactobacillus depleted microbiota, livebirth was associated with significantly higher E2 levels compared to women suffering miscarriage (212pg/ml in miscarriage vs 395pg/ml in livebirth, p = 0.003) (OR = 22.4 P = 0.004). In 22 women who had Lactobacillus depletion at the time of IPUV (7 with an eventual outcome of miscarriage, and 15 with an eventual outcome of livebirth), longitudinal vaginal bacterial DNA sequencing was performed. In 7/15 women with livebirth, and higher E2 levels, the microbial composition changed to become more Lactobacillus dominant during pregnancy, whereas in those with miscarriage, only 1/7 changed to become Lactobacillus dominant.

Limitations, reasons for caution

In this study, serum oestradiol levels were compared to the local vaginal bacterial environment. The ideal would be to study local vaginal oestradiol, glycogen and the bacterial composition.

Wider implications of the findings: In contrast to previous studies in menopause where low oestrogen levels associate with the vaginal microbial composition, this study uses the high oestradiol environment of early pregnancy to study the mechanistic relationship between oestradiol and vaginal Lactobacillus abundance.

Trial registration number

NA

Fecobionics assessment of the effect of position on defecatory efficacy in normal subjects

BACKGROUND

Defecation is a complex process and up to 25% of the population suffer from symptoms of defecatory dysfunction. For functional testing, diagnostics, and therapy of anorectal disorders, it is important to know the optimal defecation position. is The aim of this study was to evaluate defecation pressure patterns in side lying, seated and squatting defecation positions in normal subjects using a simulated stool device called Fecobionics.

METHODS

The Fecobionics expulsion parameters were assessed in an interventional study design conducted from May 29 to December 9 2019. Subjects were invited to participate in the study through advertisement at The Chinese University of Hong Kong. The Fecobionics device consisted of a core containing pressure sensors at the front (caudal end) and rear (cranial end) and a polyester-urethane bag spanning most of the core length which also contained sensors. The Fecobionics bag was distended to 50 ml in the rectum of normal subjects (no present and past symptoms of defecatory disorders, no prior abdominal surgery, medication or chronic diseases). Studies were done in side lying (left lateral recumbent position), seated (hip flexed 90°) and squatting position (hip flexed 25°). Pressure endpoints including the rear-front pressure diagram and defecation indices were compared between positions.

RESULTS

Twelve subjects (6 females/6 males, mean age 26.3 ± 2.6 [19.0-48.0] years) were included and underwent the planned procedures. The resting anal pressure for side lying and seated positions were 33.1 ± 4.1 cmH₂O and 37.1 ± 4.0 cmH₂O (p > 0.3). The anal squeeze pressure for side lying and seated positions were 98.4 ± 6.9 cmH₂O and 142.3 ± 16.4 cmH₂O (p < 0.05). The expulsion duration for the side lying, seated and squatting positions were 108.9 ± 8.3 s, 15.0 ± 2.1 s and 16.1 ± 2.9 s, respectively (p < 0.01 between lying and the two other positions). The maximum evacuation pressure for seated and squatting were 130.1 ± 12.4 cmH2O and 134.0 ± 11.1 cmH₂O (p > 0.5). Rear-front pressure diagrams and distensibility indices demonstrated distinct differences in pressure patterns between the side lying position group and the other positions.

CONCLUSIONS

The delay in expelling the Fecobionics device in the lying position was associated with dyssynergic pressure patterns on the device. Quantitative differences were not found between the seated and squatting position. Trial Registration http://www.clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT03317938.

Cerebral venous sinus thrombosis following post-neurosurgical intracranial hypotension: A case report and systematic review of the literature

Cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) following brain surgery is a feared complication, commonly described after direct injury to the sinus. However, distant CVST occurring away from the operative area are unexpected. Yet, there is a strong physio-pathological rational supporting the role of intracranial hypotension as a risk factor of CVST. Here, we report the case of a frontal arachnoid cyst depletion followed by an extensive contralateral CVST. Given the major prognostic consequences observed in this clinical illustration, we further investigated the hypothesis of intracranial hypotension as an etiology of CVST by carrying out a systematic review of the literature.

Prevention and treatment of cancer-associated thrombosis

Cancer is a hypercoagulable state with an associated increased risk of venous thromboembolism (vte) that is further amplified in individuals who undergo chemotherapy. Compared with patients having cancer alone or vte alone, patients who develop cancer-associated vte have a significantly poorer prognosis. The risks of recurrent vte despite appropriate anticoagulation therapy and of bleeding are also higher in patients with cancer than in those without. For those reasons, the prevention and appropriate management of cancer-associated thrombosis is of paramount importance. Although low-molecular-weight heparin has been the standard of care for the prevention and treatment of cancer-associated thrombosis, direct oral anticoagulants are increasingly being adopted as an effective and safe alternative.

GW190521: A Binary Black Hole Merger with a Total Mass of 150 M_{⊙}

On May 21, 2019 at 03:02:29 UTC Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo observed a short duration gravitational-wave signal, GW190521, with a three-detector network signal-to-noise ratio of 14.7, and an estimated false-alarm rate of 1 in 4900 yr using a search sensitive to generic transients. If GW190521 is from a quasicircular binary inspiral, then the detected signal is consistent with the merger of two black holes with masses of 85_{-14}^{+21}  M_{⊙} and 66_{-18}^{+17}  M_{⊙} (90% credible intervals). We infer that the primary black hole mass lies within the gap produced by (pulsational) pair-instability supernova processes, with only a 0.32% probability of being below 65  M_{⊙}. We calculate the mass of the remnant to be 142_{-16}^{+28}  M_{⊙}, which can be considered an intermediate mass black hole (IMBH). The luminosity distance of the source is 5.3_{-2.6}^{+2.4}  Gpc, corresponding to a redshift of 0.82_{-0.34}^{+0.28}. The inferred rate of mergers similar to GW190521 is 0.13_{-0.11}^{+0.30}  Gpc^{-3} yr^{-1}.

Perioperative intravenous contrast administration and the incidence of acute kidney injury after major gastrointestinal surgery: prospective, multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to determine the impact of preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast for CT and the risk of developing postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery.

METHODS

This prospective, multicentre cohort study included adults undergoing gastrointestinal resection, stoma reversal or liver resection. Both elective and emergency procedures were included. Preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast was defined as exposure to contrast administered for the purposes of CT up to 7 days before surgery. The primary endpoint was the rate of AKI within 7 days. Propensity score-matched models were adjusted for patient, disease and operative variables. In a sensitivity analysis, a propensity score-matched model explored the association between preoperative exposure to contrast and AKI in the first 48 h after surgery.

RESULTS

A total of 5378 patients were included across 173 centres. Overall, 1249 patients (23·2 per cent) received intravenous contrast. The overall rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery was 13·4 per cent (718 of 5378). In the propensity score-matched model, preoperative exposure to contrast was not associated with AKI within 7 days (odds ratio (OR) 0·95, 95 per cent c.i. 0·73 to 1·21; P = 0·669). The sensitivity analysis showed no association between preoperative contrast administration and AKI within 48 h after operation (OR 1·09, 0·84 to 1·41; P = 0·498).

CONCLUSION

There was no association between preoperative intravenous contrast administered for CT up to 7 days before surgery and postoperative AKI. Risk of contrast-induced nephropathy should not be used as a reason to avoid contrast-enhanced CT.

FRI0309 DAILY SELF-REPORTED FLARE PROFILES IN AXIAL SPONDYLOARTHRITIS: ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN FLARE, SYMPTOMS AND BEHAVIOUR

Background:

Axial spondyloarthritis (axSpA) is a chronic inflammatory disease, characterised by fluctuating periods of flare and remission. Flare is a multidimensional change of disease state; whereby flare definitions have previously been formulated using validated composite indices, or through qualitative retrospective investigation of flare states. Smartphone technologies for tracking disease symptoms provide unique, daily insights into self-reported individual flare experience, and may present an opportunity to gain a more complete understanding of flare burden and symptom patterns.

Objectives:

To assess frequency and characteristics of axSpA flares, utilising data collected in the uMotif symptom tracking app.

Methods:

Patients with axSpA attending the Royal National Hospital for Rheumatic Diseases in Bath were invited to participate. Through the uMotif app, patients were sent daily reminders to log flare, pain, fatigue, sleep, recommended exercise, mood and stress using 5-point Likert scales, in addition to optional variables such as smoking and menstrual cycle. Self-reported periods of flare were identified. For each patient reporting flare within the study period, a mean ‘flare’ and ‘non-flare’ score was calculated for each variable. Paired t-tests were conducted for each variable, to investigate which variables correlate with flare status.

Results:

Between 5th April 2018 and 8th March 2019, 174 patients consented for research and logged a mean of 99.73 (SD 99.97, range 1 - 323 days) days of data. 136/174 (78%) patients recorded at least 1 flare, with 1330 flares recorded in total. For patients reporting at least 1 flare, each flare lasted a mean of 2.20 days (SD 2.53 days, range 1 – 33 days), with a mean frequency of once every 45.19 days (SD 53.06, range 3.2 -314 days). Significant relationships were identified between flare status and uMotif scores (Table 1).

Table 1.

Paired t-tests: flare vs. non-flare scores for each variable

Estimated difference^p-valueN95% CI (lower limit)95% CI (upper limit)Variable-0.870.266-2.630.88Red Painful Eyes-0.670.000*130-0.78-0.56Pain-0.570.004*25-0.94-0.20Chest Pain-0.510.005*15-0.83-0.18Hot Flushes-0.500.000*129-0.61-0.40Fatigue-0.440.1962-2.231.35Blood in Stool-0.380.000*128-0.47-0.29Mood-0.360.000*127-0.52-0.20Anti-Inflammatory Use-0.360.000*128-0.48-0.23Recommended Exercise-0.340.000*33-0.51-0.17Confidence in Self-Management-0.260.000*128-0.37-0.15Stress-0.250.17015-0.620.12Screen Time-0.190.000*130-0.26-0.12Sleep Quality-0.150.45812-0.590.28Menstrual Cycle-0.110.10322-0.250.02Eyesight0.090.1953-0.120.30Flare of Psoriasis0.050.65626-0.170.26Medication Adherence0.040.7973-0.530.61Smoking Today-0.030.48450-0.110.05Caffeine Intake

N= number of patients with both a flare and non-flare entry for each variable; CI=confidence interval

Higher variable scores indicate more positive outcomes (e.g. a higher pain score indicates less pain)

^Estimated difference between flare and non-flare entries (e.g. on average, the mean pain score of a flare entry is 0.67 [0.56– 0.78 CI] less than a non-flare entry)

*p<0.01

Conclusion:

These findings demonstrate significant relationships between a variety of patient-reported symptoms and flare, including variables that to our knowledge, have not yet been explored in axSpA. Small estimated differences were found between scores for ‘flare’ versus ‘no-flare’. Further work is needed to characterise fluctuating flare/no-flare patterns of individuals tracking daily symptoms in the uMotif app. In future research, it will be important to determine whether there is a chronological pattern of variables during the pre-flare period that can predict a flare. Greater understanding of such patterns may allow identification of the optimal timing of intervention to prevent a period of flare and improve quality of life for patients with axSpA.

Acknowledgments:

We thank UCB for funding use of the uMotif application.

Disclosure of Interests:

Rosie Barnett: None declared, Stanley Ng: None declared, Simon Jones: None declared, Matthew Young: None declared, Raj Sengupta Grant/research support from: Research grants from UCB, Pfizer, Abbvie and Novartis, Speakers bureau: Received honoraria for giving talks from Abbvie, Biogen, UCB, Novartis, Pfizer

A28 RELATIVE RATES OF ULCERATIVE COLITIS TO CROHN’S DISEASE: PARALLEL EPIDEMIOLOGIES IN NEWLY VS. HIGHLY INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES

Background

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) first presents in a population as cases of ulcerative colitis (UC) followed by cases of Crohn’s disease (CD). Newly industrialized countries (NIC) show a prallel epidemiology of IBD to highly industrialized countries (HIC) in the previous century; one marker of this is the relative incidence/prevalence rates of UC to CD, which approximates 1 over time.

Aims

Provide evidence for the UC:CD ratio as a proxy for disease penatrance in a population.

Methods

Systematic review of MedLine and Embase for studies reporting incidence or prevalence of UC and CD. Log-linear regression (by region and NIC/HIC [2019 United Nations definitions]) was used to calculate average annual percent change (AAPC) and associated 95% confidence intervals (CI). Data were plotted on an online, interactive map to show trends (link provided).

Results

We extracted data from 218 studies compising population-level data from 69 countries. We found negative AAPCs as the prevalence ratio of UC:CD significantly decreased over time in East Asia, West Asia, North Europe, and South Europe; 6/12 global regions displayed significantly decreasing incidence ratios. No AAPC was found to be significantly increasing (Table 1). When examing HIC/NIC, we found a significant effect of NIC on the UC:CD prevalence ratio after 2000 (AAPC:−3.83;95%CI:−6.28,−1.31) while HIC regions remained stable (AAPC:2.14;95%CI:−1.40,5.82). Looking at all available data, both HICs and NICs show significantly decreasing UC:CD prevalence ratios (HIC:AAPC:−3.72;95% CI:−4.46,−2.97; NIC:AAPC:−2.62;95%CI:−4.13,−1.08).

Conclusions

In some HICs (eg. Canada), the UC:CD incidence ratio was &lt;1 in the earliest available data (1966), explaining the stable AAPC in North America (AAPC:−0.24;95%CI:−1.12,0.65). However, in NICs (eg. Southern Asia), the AAPC is rapidly decreasing (AAPC:−24.68;95%CI:−37.85,−8.71) as areas like Sri Lanka rapidly fall from an incidence ratio of 7.5 (2007) to 2.8 (2012), mimicking trends in IBD epidimeology of HICs in the previous century.

Funding Agencies

None

Prospects for observing and localizing gravitational-wave transients with Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA

We present our current best estimate of the plausible observing scenarios for the Advanced LIGO, Advanced Virgo and KAGRA gravitational-wave detectors over the next several years, with the intention of providing information to facilitate planning for multi-messenger astronomy with gravitational waves. We estimate the sensitivity of the network to transient gravitational-wave signals for the third (O3), fourth (O4) and fifth observing (O5) runs, including the planned upgrades of the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. We study the capability of the network to determine the sky location of the source for gravitational-wave signals from the inspiral of binary systems of compact objects, that is binary neutron star, neutron star-black hole, and binary black hole systems. The ability to localize the sources is given as a sky-area probability, luminosity distance, and comoving volume. The median sky localization area (90% credible region) is expected to be a few hundreds of square degrees for all types of binary systems during O3 with the Advanced LIGO and Virgo (HLV) network. The median sky localization area will improve to a few tens of square degrees during O4 with the Advanced LIGO, Virgo, and KAGRA (HLVK) network. During O3, the median localization volume (90% credible region) is expected to be on the order of 10 5 , 10 6 , 10 7 Mpc 3 for binary neutron star, neutron star-black hole, and binary black hole systems, respectively. The localization volume in O4 is expected to be about a factor two smaller than in O3. We predict a detection count of 1 - 1 + 12 ( 10 - 10 + 52 ) for binary neutron star mergers, of 0 - 0 + 19 ( 1 - 1 + 91 ) for neutron star-black hole mergers, and 17 - 11 + 22 ( 79 - 44 + 89 ) for binary black hole mergers in a one-calendar-year observing run of the HLV network during O3 (HLVK network during O4). We evaluate sensitivity and localization expectations for unmodeled signal searches, including the search for intermediate mass black hole binary mergers.

Search for Subsolar Mass Ultracompact Binaries in Advanced LIGO's Second Observing Run

We present a search for subsolar mass ultracompact objects in data obtained during Advanced LIGO's second observing run. In contrast to a previous search of Advanced LIGO data from the first observing run, this search includes the effects of component spin on the gravitational waveform. We identify no viable gravitational-wave candidates consistent with subsolar mass ultracompact binaries with at least one component between 0.2  M_{⊙}-1.0  M_{⊙}. We use the null result to constrain the binary merger rate of (0.2  M_{⊙}, 0.2  M_{⊙}) binaries to be less than 3.7×10^{5}  Gpc^{-3} yr^{-1} and the binary merger rate of (1.0  M_{⊙}, 1.0  M_{⊙}) binaries to be less than 5.2×10^{3}  Gpc^{-3} yr^{-1}. Subsolar mass ultracompact objects are not expected to form via known stellar evolution channels, though it has been suggested that primordial density fluctuations or particle dark matter with cooling mechanisms and/or nuclear interactions could form black holes with subsolar masses. Assuming a particular primordial black hole (PBH) formation model, we constrain a population of merging 0.2  M_{⊙} black holes to account for less than 16% of the dark matter density and a population of merging 1.0  M_{⊙} black holes to account for less than 2% of the dark matter density. We discuss how constraints on the merger rate and dark matter fraction may be extended to arbitrary black hole population models that predict subsolar mass binaries.

Effect of cold plasma on polyphenol oxidase inactivation in cloudy apple juice and on the quality parameters of the juice during storage

Direct cold plasma treatment has been investigated as an alternative non-thermal technology as a means of maintaining and improving quality of fresh cloudy apple juice. Process variables studied included type of plasma discharge, input voltage and treatment time on polyphenol oxidase (PPO) inactivation. Spark discharge plasma at 10.5 kV for 5 min was the best treatment, with near total inactivation of PPO achieved, although good PPO inactivation was also recorded using shorter treatment times. Residual activity (RA) of PPO was 16 and 27.6% after 5 and 4 min of treatment respectively. This PPO inactivation was maintained throughout the storage trials, but decreased with samples treated for a shorter time. Plasma treatment improved key quality parameters of Golden delicious cloudy apple juice, with retention of critical quality parameters during extended storage trials. Color was the most noticeable change, which was enhanced with retention of a greener color. An increase of 69 and 64% was obtained in the total phenolic content after 4 and 5 min of treatment, respectively. Therefore, cold plasma was demonstrated to be a good alternative to traditional heat treatments for enhanced quality retention of fresh cloudy apple juice and over its storage.

Tests of General Relativity with GW170817

The recent discovery by Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo of a gravitational wave signal from a binary neutron star inspiral has enabled tests of general relativity (GR) with this new type of source. This source, for the first time, permits tests of strong-field dynamics of compact binaries in the presence of matter. In this Letter, we place constraints on the dipole radiation and possible deviations from GR in the post-Newtonian coefficients that govern the inspiral regime. Bounds on modified dispersion of gravitational waves are obtained; in combination with information from the observed electromagnetic counterpart we can also constrain effects due to large extra dimensions. Finally, the polarization content of the gravitational wave signal is studied. The results of all tests performed here show good agreement with GR.

Female adiposity and time-to-pregnancy: a multiethnic prospective cohort

STUDY QUESTION

Are higher overall and central adiposity associated with reduced fecundability, measured by time-to-pregnancy (TTP), in Asian women?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Higher overall adiposity, but not central adiposity, was associated with longer TTP in Asian women.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

High body mass index (BMI) has been associated with a longer TTP, although the associations of body composition and distribution with TTP are less clear. There are no previous studies of TTP in Asian women, who have a relatively higher percentage of body fat and abdominal fat at relatively lower BMI.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

Prospective preconception cohort using data from 477 Asian (Chinese, Malay and Indian) women who were planning to conceive and enrolled in the Singapore PREconception Study of long-Term maternal and child Outcomes (S-PRESTO) study, 2015-2017.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Women's mean age was 30.7 years. Overall adiposity was assessed by BMI, sum of 4-site skinfold thicknesses (SFT) and total body fat percentage (TBF%, measured using air displacement plethysmography); central adiposity was assessed by waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and A body Shape Index (ABSI). Pregnancy occurring within one year from recruitment was ascertained by ultrasonography. Those who did not conceive within one year of recruitment, were lost to follow-up, or initiated fertility treatment were censored. TTP was measured in cycles. Discrete-time proportional hazards models were used to estimate the fecundability ratio (FR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for each anthropometric measure in association with fecundability, adjusting for confounders.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Compared to women with a normal BMI of 18.5-22.9 kg/m2, women with higher BMI of 23-27.4 and ≥27.5 kg/m2 showed lower FR of 0.66 (95% CI 0.45, 0.97) and 0.53 (0.31, 0.89), respectively. Compared to women in the lowest quartile of SFT (25-52.9 mm), those in the highest quartile of ≥90.1 mm showed lower FR of 0.58 (95% CI 0.36, 0.95). Compared to women in the lowest quartile of TBF% (13.6-27.2%), those in the upper two quartiles of 33.0-39.7% and ≥39.8% showed lower FR of 0.56 (95% CI 0.32, 0.98) and 0.43 (0.24, 0.80), respectively. Association of high BMI with reduced fecundability was particularly evident among nulliparous women. Measures of central adiposity (WC, WHR, WHtR, ABSI) were not associated with fecundability.

LIMITATIONS REASONS FOR CAUTION

Small sample size could restrict power of analysis.The analysis was confined to planned pregnancies, which could limit generalizability of findings to non-planned pregnancies, estimated at around 44% in Singapore. Information on the date of last menstrual period for each month was not available, hence the accuracy of self-reported menstrual cycle length could not be validated, potentially introducing error into TTP estimation. Measures of exposures and covariates such as cycle length were not performed repeatedly over time; cycle length might have changed during the period before getting pregnant.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Other than using BMI as the surrogate measure of body fat, we provide additional evidence showing that higher amounts of subcutaneous fat that based on the measure of SFT at the sites of biceps, triceps, suprailiac and subscapular, and TBF% are associated with longer TTP. Achieving optimal weight and reducing total percentage body fat may be a potential intervention target to improve female fertility. The null results observed between central adiposity and TTP requires confirmation in further studies.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

This research is supported by Singapore National Research Foundation under its Translational and Clinical Research Flagship Programme and administered by the Singapore Ministry of Health's National Medical Research Council, (NMRC/TCR/004-NUS/2008; NMRC/TCR/012-NUHS/2014). Additional funding is provided by the Singapore Institute for Clinical Sciences, Agency for Science Technology and Research (A*STAR), Singapore. Y.S.C., K.M.G., F.Y. and Y.S.L. have received reimbursement to speak at conferences sponsored by companies selling nutritional products. Y.S.C., K.M.G. and S.Y.C. are part of an academic consortium that has received research funding from Abbott, Nutrition, Nestle and Danone. Other authors declared no conflicts of interest.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

Constraining the p-Mode-g-Mode Tidal Instability with GW170817

We analyze the impact of a proposed tidal instability coupling p modes and g modes within neutron stars on GW170817. This nonresonant instability transfers energy from the orbit of the binary to internal modes of the stars, accelerating the gravitational-wave driven inspiral. We model the impact of this instability on the phasing of the gravitational wave signal using three parameters per star: an overall amplitude, a saturation frequency, and a spectral index. Incorporating these additional parameters, we compute the Bayes factor (lnB_{!pg}^{pg}) comparing our p-g model to a standard one. We find that the observed signal is consistent with waveform models that neglect p-g effects, with lnB_{!pg}^{pg}=0.03_{-0.58}^{+0.70} (maximum a posteriori and 90% credible region). By injecting simulated signals that do not include p-g effects and recovering them with the p-g model, we show that there is a ≃50% probability of obtaining similar lnB_{!pg}^{pg} even when p-g effects are absent. We find that the p-g amplitude for 1.4  M_{⊙} neutron stars is constrained to less than a few tenths of the theoretical maximum, with maxima a posteriori near one-tenth this maximum and p-g saturation frequency ∼70  Hz. This suggests that there are less than a few hundred excited modes, assuming they all saturate by wave breaking. For comparison, theoretical upper bounds suggest ≲10^{3} modes saturate by wave breaking. Thus, the measured constraints only rule out extreme values of the p-g parameters. They also imply that the instability dissipates ≲10^{51}  erg over the entire inspiral, i.e., less than a few percent of the energy radiated as gravitational waves.

Critical care usage after major gastrointestinal and liver surgery: a prospective, multicentre observational study

BACKGROUND

Patient selection for critical care admission must balance patient safety with optimal resource allocation. This study aimed to determine the relationship between critical care admission, and postoperative mortality after abdominal surgery.

METHODS

This prespecified secondary analysis of a multicentre, prospective, observational study included consecutive patients enrolled in the DISCOVER study from UK and Republic of Ireland undergoing major gastrointestinal and liver surgery between October and December 2014. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Multivariate logistic regression was used to explore associations between critical care admission (planned and unplanned) and mortality, and inter-centre variation in critical care admission after emergency laparotomy.

RESULTS

Of 4529 patients included, 37.8% (n=1713) underwent planned critical care admissions from theatre. Some 3.1% (n=86/2816) admitted to ward-level care subsequently underwent unplanned critical care admission. Overall 30-day mortality was 2.9% (n=133/4519), and the risk-adjusted association between 30-day mortality and critical care admission was higher in unplanned [odds ratio (OR): 8.65, 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.51-19.97) than planned admissions (OR: 2.32, 95% CI: 1.43-3.85). Some 26.7% of patients (n=1210/4529) underwent emergency laparotomies. After adjustment, 49.3% (95% CI: 46.8-51.9%, P<0.001) were predicted to have planned critical care admissions, with 7% (n=10/145) of centres outside the 95% CI.

CONCLUSIONS

After risk adjustment, no 30-day survival benefit was identified for either planned or unplanned postoperative admissions to critical care within this cohort. This likely represents appropriate admission of the highest-risk patients. Planned admissions in selected, intermediate-risk patients may present a strategy to mitigate the risk of unplanned admission. Substantial inter-centre variation exists in planned critical care admissions after emergency laparotomies.

Search for Subsolar-Mass Ultracompact Binaries in Advanced LIGO's First Observing Run

We present the first Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo search for ultracompact binary systems with component masses between 0.2  M_{⊙}-1.0  M_{⊙} using data taken between September 12, 2015 and January 19, 2016. We find no viable gravitational wave candidates. Our null result constrains the coalescence rate of monochromatic (delta function) distributions of nonspinning (0.2  M_{⊙}, 0.2  M_{⊙}) ultracompact binaries to be less than 1.0×10^{6}  Gpc^{-3}  yr^{-1} and the coalescence rate of a similar distribution of (1.0  M_{⊙}, 1.0  M_{⊙}) ultracompact binaries to be less than 1.9×10^{4}  Gpc^{-3}  yr^{-1} (at 90% confidence). Neither black holes nor neutron stars are expected to form below ∼1  M_{⊙} through conventional stellar evolution, though it has been proposed that similarly low mass black holes could be formed primordially through density fluctuations in the early Universe and contribute to the dark matter density. The interpretation of our constraints in the primordial black hole dark matter paradigm is highly model dependent; however, under a particular primordial black hole binary formation scenario we constrain monochromatic primordial black hole populations of 0.2  M_{⊙} to be less than 33% of the total dark matter density and monochromatic populations of 1.0  M_{⊙} to be less than 5% of the dark matter density. The latter strengthens the presently placed bounds from microlensing surveys of massive compact halo objects (MACHOs) provided by the MACHO and EROS Collaborations.

GW170817: Measurements of Neutron Star Radii and Equation of State

On 17 August 2017, the LIGO and Virgo observatories made the first direct detection of gravitational waves from the coalescence of a neutron star binary system. The detection of this gravitational-wave signal, GW170817, offers a novel opportunity to directly probe the properties of matter at the extreme conditions found in the interior of these stars. The initial, minimal-assumption analysis of the LIGO and Virgo data placed constraints on the tidal effects of the coalescing bodies, which were then translated to constraints on neutron star radii. Here, we expand upon previous analyses by working under the hypothesis that both bodies were neutron stars that are described by the same equation of state and have spins within the range observed in Galactic binary neutron stars. Our analysis employs two methods: the use of equation-of-state-insensitive relations between various macroscopic properties of the neutron stars and the use of an efficient parametrization of the defining function p(ρ) of the equation of state itself. From the LIGO and Virgo data alone and the first method, we measure the two neutron star radii as R_{1}=10.8_{-1.7}^{+2.0}  km for the heavier star and R_{2}=10.7_{-1.5}^{+2.1}  km for the lighter star at the 90% credible level. If we additionally require that the equation of state supports neutron stars with masses larger than 1.97  M_{⊙} as required from electromagnetic observations and employ the equation-of-state parametrization, we further constrain R_{1}=11.9_{-1.4}^{+1.4}  km and R_{2}=11.9_{-1.4}^{+1.4}  km at the 90% credible level. Finally, we obtain constraints on p(ρ) at supranuclear densities, with pressure at twice nuclear saturation density measured at 3.5_{-1.7}^{+2.7}×10^{34}  dyn cm^{-2} at the 90% level.