Risk factors associated with short-term complications in mandibular fractures: the MANTRA study-a Maxillofacial Trainee Research Collaborative (MTReC)

INTRODUCTION

Complications following mandibular fractures occur in 9-23% of patients. Identifying those at risk is key to prevention. Previous studies highlighted smoking, age and time from injury to presentation as risk factors but rarely recorded other possible confounders. In this paper, we use a collaborative snapshot audit to document novel risk factors and confirm established risks for complications following the treatment of mandibular fractures.

METHODS

The audit was carried out by 122 OMFS trainees across the UK and Ireland (49 centres) over 6 months, coordinated by the Maxillofacial Surgery Trainees Research Collaborative. Variables recorded included basic demography, medical and social history, injury mechanism and type, management and 30-day outcome.

RESULTS

Nine hundred and forty-seven (947) patients with fractured mandibles were recorded. Surgical management was carried out in 76.3%. Complications at 30 days occurred 65 (9%) of those who were managed surgically. Risk factors for complications included male sex, increasing age, any medical history, increasing number of cigarettes smoked per week, increasing alcohol use per week, worse oral hygiene and increased time from injury to presentation.

DISCUSSION

We have used a large prospective snapshot audit to confirm established risk factors and identify novel risk factors. We demonstrate that time from injury to presentation is confounded by other indicators of poor health behaviour. These results are important in designing trial protocols for management of mandibular fractures and in targeting health interventions to patients at highest risk of complications.

The role of quantitative bias analysis for nonrandomized comparisons in health technology assessment: recommendations from an expert workshop

The use of treatment effects derived from nonrandomized studies (NRS) in health technology assessment (HTA) is growing. NRS carry an inherently greater risk of bias than randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Although bias can be mitigated to some extent through appropriate approaches to study design and analysis, concerns around data availability and quality and the absence of randomization mean residual biases typically render the interpretation of NRS challenging. Quantitative bias analysis (QBA) methods are a range of methods that use additional, typically external, data to understand the potential impact that unmeasured confounding and other biases including selection bias and time biases can have on the results (i.e., treatment effects) from an NRS. QBA has the potential to support HTA bodies in using NRS to support decision-making by quantifying the magnitude, direction, and uncertainty of biases. However, there are a number of key aspects of the use of QBA in HTA which have received limited discussion. This paper presents recommendations for the use of QBA in HTA developed using a multi-stakeholder workshop of experts in HTA with a focus on QBA for unmeasured confounding.

Evaluation of US oncology electronic health record real-world data to reduce uncertainty in health technology appraisals: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Examine whether data from early access to medicines in the USA can be used to inform National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) health technology assessments (HTA) in oncology.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Oncology-based community and academic treatment centres in the USA.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients present in a nationwide electronic health record (EHR)-derived deidentified database.

INTERVENTIONS

Cancer drugs that underwent NICE technology appraisal (TA) between 2014 and 2019.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The count and follow-up time of US patients, available in the EHR, who were exposed to cancer drugs of interest in the period between Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval and dates relevant to the NICE appraisal process.

RESULTS

In 59 of 60 TAs analysed, the cancer therapy was approved in the USA before the final appraisal by NICE. The median time from FDA approval to the publication of NICE recommendations was 18.5 months, at which time the US EHR-derived database had, on average, 269 patients (SD=356) exposed to the new therapy, with a median of 75.3 person-years (IQR: 13.1-173) in time-at-risk. A case study generated evidence on real-world overall survival and treatment duration.

CONCLUSIONS

Across different cancer therapies, there was substantial variability in US real-world data accumulated between FDA approval and NICE decision milestones. The applicability of these data to generate evidence for HTA decision-making should be assessed on a case-by-case basis depending on the intended HTA use case.

Emergency versus semi-elective management of mandible fractures: a Maxillofacial Trainee Research Collaborative (MTReC) study

INTRODUCTION

Recent evidence suggests that acute emergency management of mandible fractures does not improve surgical outcomes yet is associated with increased financial burden. Current NHS policy advocating for increased adoption of day-case and semi-elective surgical procedures to reduce bed strain must be balanced with providing timely, effective treatment. Our research aims to determine patient groups currently managed via semi-elective admission and whether this can be extended to other groups to provide safe and effective management of mandible fractures.

METHODS

A multi-national trainee-led audit of mandibular fractures across 49 units was completed by the Maxillofacial Trainee Research Collaborative (MTReC). Each unit prospectively collected data on fractures on admission and at follow-up. Data collected included patient demographics, behaviour, health, injury, timing to intervention and surgical complications.

RESULTS

Data were collected on 947 mandibular fractures. Of the surgically managed patients, 649 (90%) were managed via acute emergency admission at the time of presentation, while 68 (10%) were managed semi-electively. Patient demographics, injury pattern and mechanism appeared to significantly affect timing of management, whereas patient behaviour, health status, timing of injury and presentation did not. Semi-elective management was associated with a significantly shorter inpatient duration (0.9 versus 1.9 days, p=0.000) with no differences in readmission, antibiotic usage or surgical complications (p=1.000, RR 1.030).

CONCLUSION

Our study demonstrates the efficacy of planned admissions and semi-elective management of mandibular fractures. Simple mandibular fractures in compliant patients are suitable for semi-elective treatment. Holistic patient assessment and tailored surgical planning is crucial in determining admission modality to effectively manage mandibular trauma.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cardiovascular disease prevention and management

How the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected prevention and management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is not fully understood. In this study, we used medication data as a proxy for CVD management using routinely collected, de-identified, individual-level data comprising 1.32 billion records of community-dispensed CVD medications from England, Scotland and Wales between April 2018 and July 2021. Here we describe monthly counts of prevalent and incident medications dispensed, as well as percentage changes compared to the previous year, for several CVD-related indications, focusing on hypertension, hypercholesterolemia and diabetes. We observed a decline in the dispensing of antihypertensive medications between March 2020 and July 2021, with 491,306 fewer individuals initiating treatment than expected. This decline was predicted to result in 13,662 additional CVD events, including 2,281 cases of myocardial infarction and 3,474 cases of stroke, should individuals remain untreated over their lifecourse. Incident use of lipid-lowering medications decreased by 16,744 patients per month during the first half of 2021 as compared to 2019. By contrast, incident use of medications to treat type 2 diabetes mellitus, other than insulin, increased by approximately 623 patients per month for the same time period. In light of these results, methods to identify and treat individuals who have missed treatment for CVD risk factors and remain undiagnosed are urgently required to avoid large numbers of excess future CVD events, an indirect impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Predictors and risk factors for admission to critical care in cervicofacial infections: a Maxillofacial Trainee Research Collaborative (MTReC) study

Cervicofacial infections carry significant morbidity. Patients present on a broad spectrum of severity, with some requiring outpatient management and others admission to higher level care. Recognition of risk factors is helpful in decision making regarding the need for admission to higher level care. Prospective data were captured on 1002 patients in 25 centres across 17 regions of the United Kingdom (UK) by the Maxillofacial Trainee Research Collaborative (MTReC). Patients admitted to critical care were compared with those who received ward-level care. Multivariate and receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were used to identify predictors for critical care admission. Our results show that the best predictor for critical care admission is the presence of three or more features of airway compromise (AUC 0.779), followed by C-reactive protein (CRP) >100 mg/L (OR 2.70; 95% CI 1.59 to 4.58; p < 0.005), submandibular space involvement (OR 3.82; 95% CI 1.870 to 7.81; p = 0.003), white cell count (WCC) >12 × 10⁹/ dl (1.05; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.10; p = 0.03), and positive systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria (OR 2.78; CI 1.35 to 5.80; p = 0.006). Admission to critical care is multifactorial, however, the presence of three or more features of airway compromise is the best predictor. Awareness of this alongside other key clinical findings in cervicofacial infections may allow for the early recognition of patients who may require escalation to critical care.

Does anticoagulation improve outcomes of microvascular free flap reconstruction following head and neck surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis

The commonest cause of microvascular free flap failure is thrombosis at the anastomosis. Pharmacological antithrombotic therapies have been used to mitigate this risk, but they carry the risk of bleeding and haematoma formation. To justify any intervention, it is necessary to evaluate the benefits and balance of risks. This meta-analysis aims to quantify the value of systemic anticoagulation during head and neck free tissue reconstruction. We performed a systematic review on the impact of additional prophylactic antithrombotic therapy on head and neck (H&N) free tissue transfer (on top and above the use of low molecular weight heparin to prevent deep vein thrombosis). We carried a PRISMA-guided literature review, following registration with PROSPERO. All studies analysing the possible impact of prophylactic anticoagulants on free flap surgery in the head and neck were eligible. The primary outcome was perioperative free flap complications (perioperative thrombosis, partial or total free flap failure, thrombo-embolic events, or re-exploration of anastomosis). Secondary outcomes included haematoma formation or bleeding complications requiring further intervention. We identified eight eligible studies out of 454. These included 3531 free flaps for H&N reconstruction. None of the assessed interventions demonstrated a statistically significant improvement in free flap outcomes. Accumulative analysis of all anti-coagulated groups demonstrated an increased relative risk of free flap complications [RR 1.54 (0.73-3.23)] compared to control albeit not statistically significant (p = 0.25). Pooled analysis from the included studies showed that the prophylactic use of therapeutic doses of anticoagulants significantly (p = 0.003) increased the risk of haematoma and bleeding requiring intervention [RR 2.98 (1.47-6.07)], without reducing the risk of free flap failure. Additional anticoagulation does not reduce the incidence of free flap thrombosis and failure. Unfractionated heparin (UFH) consistently increased the risk of free flap complications. The use of additional anticoagulation as 'prophylaxis' in the perioperative setting, increases the risk of haematoma and bleeding.

79 EXPERIENCES OF DIRECTORS OF NURSING IN RESIDENTIAL CARE OF OLDER PEOPLE DURING COVID 19

Background

COVID-19 was a global public health crisis and deaths in the over 65 age group represented a disproportionate number of deaths in older people. In particular, nursing homes experienced clusters of infection and high mortality rates. This paper discusses experiences of care homes’ Directors of Nursing/Persons in Charge (DoN) in their preparedness, management and control of care during COVID-19.

Methods

A mixed methods approach was used (survey- n=122) and semi-structured interviews (n=20) were conducted with DoNs in private and voluntary older person care homes in the Republic of Ireland. Survey data was analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Interviews were analysed using Braun & Clarke's thematic analysis.

Results

DoNs demonstrated an initial challenge in protecting residents from infection and also managing infection outbreak. However, over time they experienced more effectiveness in managing infection prevention and control as demanded at the level of a pandemic. Fifty percent of respondents experienced an infection outbreak and the data does not demonstrate any significant difference in preparedness and management in care homes which had outbreaks and those who had no outbreaks. Other challenges were related to financial sustainability of their facility while 47% of DoNs were either actively seeking other work, or thinking of leaving their post. In the interviews, the DoNs spoke of persistent concerns with the well-being of the staff and residents and a constant worry about meeting regulatory requirements and ensuring adequate staff cover for residents care needs. Moreover, the DoNs spoke of the difficulties when the media sensationalized poor care leading to a reduction of public confidence in the sector.

Conclusion

The DoNs were under constant alert and although had acclimatized to high level of infection control and prevention and managing emerging issues, the strain of the pandemic remained evident. Recommendations are given related to care homes and related to system level management for future public health crisis.

Using primary care data to assess comparative effectiveness and safety of apixaban and rivaroxaban in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation in the UK: an observational cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To compare real-world effectiveness and safety of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AFib) for prevention of stroke.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

A comparative cohort study in UK general practice data from The Health Improvement Network database.

PARTICIPANTS AND INTERVENTIONS

Before matching, 5655 patients ≥18 years with nonvalvular AFib who initiated at least one DOAC between 1 July 2014 and 31 December 2020 were included. DOACs of interest included apixaban, rivaroxaban, edoxaban and dabigatran, with the primary comparison between apixaban and rivaroxaban. Initiators of DOACs were defined as new users with no record of prescription for any DOAC during 12 months before index date.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was stroke (ischaemic or haemorrhagic). Secondary outcomes included the occurrence of all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction (MI), transient ischaemic attacks (TIA), major bleeding events and a composite angina/MI/stroke (AMS) endpoint.

RESULTS

Compared with rivaroxaban, patients initiating apixaban showed similar rates of stroke (HR: 0.93; 95% CI 0.64 to 1.34), all-cause mortality (HR: 1.03; 95% CI 0.87 to 1.22), MI (HR: 0.95; 95% CI 0.54 to 1.68), TIA (HR: 1.03; 95% CI 0.61 to 1.72) and AMS (HR: 0.96; 95% CI 0.72 to 1.27). Apixaban initiators showed lower rates of major bleeding events (HR: 0.60; 95% CI 0.47 to 0.75).

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with nonvalvular AFib, apixaban was as effective as rivaroxaban in reducing rate of stroke and safer in terms of major bleeding episodes. This head-to-head comparison supports conclusions drawn from indirect comparisons of DOAC trials against warfarin and demonstrates the potential for real-world evidence to fill evidence gaps and reduce uncertainty in both health technology assessment decision-making and clinical guideline development.

Unmeasured confounding in nonrandomized studies: quantitative bias analysis in health technology assessment

Evidence generated from nonrandomized studies (NRS) is increasingly submitted to health technology assessment (HTA) agencies. Unmeasured confounding is a primary concern with this type of evidence, as it may result in biased treatment effect estimates, which has led to much criticism of NRS by HTA agencies. Quantitative bias analyses are a group of methods that have been developed in the epidemiological literature to quantify the impact of unmeasured confounding and adjust effect estimates from NRS. Key considerations for application in HTA proposed in this article reflect the need to balance methodological complexity with ease of application and interpretation, and the need to ensure the methods fit within the existing frameworks used to assess nonrandomized evidence by HTA bodies.

Application of quantitative bias analysis for unmeasured confounding in cost-effectiveness modelling

Due to uncertainty regarding the potential impact of unmeasured confounding, health technology assessment (HTA) agencies often disregard evidence from nonrandomized studies when considering new technologies. Quantitative bias analysis (QBA) methods provide a means to quantify this uncertainty but have not been widely used in the HTA setting, particularly in the context of cost-effectiveness modelling (CEM). This study demonstrated the application of an aggregate and patient-level QBA approach to quantify and adjust for unmeasured confounding in a simulated nonrandomized comparison of survival outcomes. Application of the QBA output within a CEM through deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses and under different scenarios of knowledge of an unmeasured confounder demonstrates the potential value of QBA in HTA.

1616 Antibiotic Use in The Management of Mandibular Fractures: A Survey of Current Practice in the UK

Aim

Traumatic mandibular fractures account for a significant proportion of UK oral and maxillofacial trauma. Prophylactic antibiotics is standard practice for management of these patients, however evidence for this is weak and relevant RCTs are insufficiently powered or poorly designed. The Maxillofacial Trainee Research Collaborative (MTReC) aims to survey current antibiotic regimens in UK OMFS units treating mandibular trauma,

Method

A multicentre online survey was shared via email and social media. Questions focused on current practices regarding management of mandibular fractures during pre-, peri-, and post-operative phases.

Results

89 responses from 50 UK OMFS units including 76 trainees and 4 consultants were collated over 2.5-months. 45 units routinely admitted patients; 88% clinicians starting pre-operative IV antibiotics;11 different pre-operative antibiotic regimens were identified across all surveyed clinicians, with 65% prescribing Augmentin, and remaining 35% using variable combinations of penicillins with 4 other antibiotic classifications. 5 different protocols were identified in use across the 88.8 % of respondents who chose to prescribe post-operative antibiotics.

Conclusions

There is inter-unit and inter-clinician variability in prophylactic antibiotic prescription in UK patients undergoing ORIF mandibles. Given antimicrobial resistance has been declared a WHO public health threat, efforts must be made to reduce antibiotic overuse and understand regional situation specific sensitivities. The survey highlights need for nationalised protocols for antibiotics use in mandibular fractures, if at all. This survey of clinician reported practice will be used to inform a prospective observational study on 30-day outcomes of ORIF mandibles taking into account patient factors, fracture pattern, fixation type and antibiotic use.

Does bariatric surgery reduce future hospital costs? A propensity score-matched analysis using UK Biobank Study data

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the hospital costs among persons with obesity undergoing bariatric surgery compared with those without bariatric surgery.

METHODS

We analysed the UK Biobank Cohort study linked to Hospital Episode Statistics, for all adults with obesity undergoing bariatric surgery at National Health Service hospitals in England, Scotland, or Wales from 2006 to 2017. Surgery patients were matched with controls who did not have bariatric surgery using propensity scores approach with a ratio of up to 1-to-5 by year. Inverse probability of censoring weighting was used to correct for potential informative censoring. Annual and cumulative hospital costs were assessed for the surgery and control groups.

RESULTS

We identified 348 surgical patients (198 gastric bypass, 73 sleeve gastrectomy, 77 gastric banding) during the study period. In total, 324 surgical patients and 1506 matched control participants were included after propensity score matching. Mean 5-year cumulative hospital costs were €11,659 for 348 surgical patients. Compared with controls, surgical patients (n = 324) had significantly higher inpatient expenditures in the surgery year (€7289 vs. €2635, P < 0.001), but lower costs in the subsequent 4 years. The 5-year cumulative costs were €11,176 for surgical patients and €8759 for controls (P = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Bariatric surgery significantly increased the inpatient costs in the surgery year, but was associated with decreased costs in the subsequent 4 years. However, any cost savings made up to 4 years were not enough to compensate for the initial surgical expenditure.

Total versus partial knee replacement in patients with medial compartment knee osteoarthritis: the TOPKAT RCT

BACKGROUND

Late-stage medial compartment knee osteoarthritis can be treated using total knee replacement or partial (unicompartmental) knee replacement. There is high variation in treatment choice and insufficient evidence to guide selection.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of partial knee replacement compared with total knee replacement in patients with medial compartment knee osteoarthritis. The findings are intended to guide surgical decision-making for patients, surgeons and health-care providers.

DESIGN

This was a randomised, multicentre, pragmatic comparative effectiveness trial that included an expertise component. The target sample size was 500 patients. A web-based randomisation system was used to allocate treatments.

SETTING

Twenty-seven NHS hospitals (68 surgeons).

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with medial compartment knee osteoarthritis.

INTERVENTIONS

The trial compared the overall management strategy of partial knee replacement treatment with total knee replacement treatment. No specified brand or subtype of implant was investigated.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The Oxford Knee Score at 5 years was the primary end point. Secondary outcomes included activity scores, global health measures, transition items, patient satisfaction (Lund Score) and complications (including reoperation, revision and composite 'failure' - defined by minimal Oxford Knee Score improvement and/or reoperation). Cost-effectiveness was also assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 528 patients were randomised (partial knee replacement, n = 264; total knee replacement, n = 264). The follow-up primary outcome response rate at 5 years was 88% and both operations had good outcomes. There was no significant difference between groups in mean Oxford Knee Score at 5 years (difference 1.04, 95% confidence interval -0.42 to 2.50). An area under the curve analysis of the Oxford Knee Score at 5 years showed benefit in favour of partial knee replacement over total knee replacement, but the difference was within the minimal clinically important difference [mean 36.6 (standard deviation 8.3) (n = 233), mean 35.1 (standard deviation 9.1) (n = 231), respectively]. Secondary outcome measures showed consistent patterns of benefit in the direction of partial knee replacement compared with total knee replacement although most differences were small and non-significant. Patient-reported improvement (transition) and reflection (would you have the operation again?) showed statistically significant superiority for partial knee replacement only, but both of these variables could be influenced by the lack of blinding. The frequency of reoperation (including revision) by treatment received was similar for both groups: 22 out of 245 for partial knee replacement and 28 out of 269 for total knee replacement patients. Revision rates at 5 years were 10 out of 245 for partial knee replacement and 8 out of 269 for total knee replacement. There were 28 'failures' of partial knee replacement and 38 'failures' of total knee replacement (as defined by composite outcome). Beyond 1 year, partial knee replacement was cost-effective compared with total knee replacement, being associated with greater health benefits (measured using quality-adjusted life-years) and lower health-care costs, reflecting lower costs of the index surgery and subsequent health-care use.

LIMITATIONS

It was not possible to blind patients in this study and there was some non-compliance with the allocated treatment interventions. Surgeons providing partial knee replacement were relatively experienced with the procedure.

CONCLUSIONS

Both total knee replacement and partial knee replacement are effective, offer similar clinical outcomes and have similar reoperation and complication rates. Some patient-reported measures of treatment approval were significantly higher for partial knee replacement than for total knee replacement. Partial knee replacement was more cost-effective (more effective and cost saving) than total knee replacement at 5 years.

FUTURE WORK

Further (10-year) follow-up is in progress to assess the longer-term stability of these findings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN03013488 and ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01352247.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 20. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

The use of nonrandomized evidence to estimate treatment effects in health technology assessment

Health technology assessment (HTA) is increasingly informed by nonrandomized studies, but there is limited guidance from HTA bodies on expectations around evidence quality and study conduct. We developed recommendations to support the appropriate use of such evidence based on a pragmatic literature review and a workshop involving 16 experts from eight countries as part of the EU's Horizon-2020 IMPACT-HTA program (work package six). To ensure HTA processes remain rigorous and robust, HTA bodies should demand clear, extensive and structured reporting of nonrandomized studies, including an in-depth assessment of the risk of bias. In recognition of the additional uncertainty imparted by nonrandomized designs in estimates of treatment effects, HTA bodies should strengthen early scientific advice and engage in collaborative efforts to improve use of real-world data.

Antibiotic practices in non-condylar mandibular fractures: a Maxillofacial Trainee Research Collaborative (MTReC) UK-wide survey

Non-condylar mandibular fractures are consdered 'open' fractures and as such are thought to require prophylactic antibiotics. There is no overall consensus on the optimal regimen or choice of antibiotic in the preoperative and postoperative periods due to a lack of high-quality evidence. We therefore set out to ascertain the current UK-wide practice of antibiotic prescribing for non-condylar mandibular fractures. We used a web-based online survey (Google Forms) that was disseminated via email and social media platforms to oral and maxillofacial surgery (OMFS) consultants and trainees of all grades. The questions focused on usual antibiotic practices and typical clinical management of non-condylar mandibular fractures. We gathered information on preoperative antibiotics, and on perioperative and postoperative periods. We collected data from 50 different UK OMFS units representing a broad snapshot of national practice. The majority of responders were speciality trainees (36%) followed by dental core trainees (34%). A total of 45/50 centres routinely admitted patients, and preoperative intravenous antibiotics were commenced on admission by 77/89 respondents, intravenous being the chosen route in all cases. In the preoperative period 81% prescribe co-amoxiclav. In 91% of cases, open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF) was on general emergency (CEPOD) operating lists, whilst dedicated OMFS trauma lists accounted for 9%. With respect to timing, 49% aimed to carry out ORIF within 24 hours from the time of admission, 44% aimed for surgery within 24 - 48 hours, and 6% aimed for surgery on a semielective basis (48 hours or more). Postoperative antibiotics were prescribed routinely by 88% of responders. Preoperative intravenous prophylactic antibiotics are commonplace in non-condylar mandibular fractures. This UK-wide survey demonstrated significant variability in antibiotic prescribing practices, especially in the postoperative period. Most units still rely on CEPOD emergency theatres to provide the capacity for ORIF in this patient group.

Cost-Effectiveness of Dopamine Agonists and Monoamine Oxidase B Inhibitors in Early Parkinson's Disease

BACKGROUND

The PD MED study reported small but persistent benefits in patient-rated mobility scores and quality of life from initiating therapy with levodopa compared with levodopa-sparing therapies in early Parkinson's disease (PD).

OBJECTIVES

The objective was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of levodopa-sparing therapy (dopamine agonists or monoamine oxidase type B inhibitors compared with levodopa alone.

METHODS

PD MED is a pragmatic, open-label randomized, controlled trial in which patients newly diagnosed with PD were randomly assigned between levodopa-sparing therapy (dopamine agonists or monoamine oxidase type B inhibitors ) and levodopa alone. Mean quality-adjusted life-years and costs were calculated for each participant. Differences in mean quality-adjusted life-years and costs between levodopa and levodopa-sparing therapies and between dopamine agonists and monoamine oxidase type B inhibitors were estimated using linear regression.

RESULTS

Over a mean observation period of 4 years, levodopa was associated with significantly higher quality-adjusted life-years (difference, 0.18; 95% CI, 0.05-0.30; P < 0.01) and lower mean costs (£3390; £2671-£4109; P < 0.01) than levodopa-sparing therapies, the difference in costs driven by the higher costs of levodopa-sparing therapies. There were no significant differences in the costs of inpatient, social care, and institutional care between arms. There was no significant difference in quality-adjusted life-years between those allocated dopamine agonists and monoamine oxidase type B inhibitors (0.02; -0.17 to 0.13 in favor of dopamine agonists; P = 0.81); however costs were significantly lower for those allocated monoamine oxidase type B inhibitors (£2321; £1628-£3015; P < 0.01) because of the higher costs of dopamine agonists. There were no significant differences between arms for other costs.

CONCLUSIONS

Initial treatment with levodopa is highly cost-effective compared with levodopa-sparing therapies. Monoamine oxidase type B inhibitors, as initial levodopa-sparing therapy was more cost-effective, with similar quality-adjusted life-years but lower costs than dopamine agonists. © 2021 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Clinical features and presentation of cervicofacial infection: a Maxillofacial Trainee Research Collaborative (MTReC) study

Cervicofacial infection (CFI) is a common presentation to the Oral and Maxillofacial (OMFS) department and accounts for significant emergency activity. The current study aims to understand the aetiology, management, and clinical features of patients hospitalised with CFI. Our study included all patients admitted for management of CFI from May to October 2017 at 25 OMFS units across 17 UK regions. Data were collected prospectively and included age, comorbidities, prior treatment received, markers of sepsis, and presenting clinical features. One thousand and two (1002) admissions were recorded; 546 (54.5%) were male. Median (range) age was 34 (1-94) years. The most common presenting complaints were trismus (46%) and dysphagia (27%). Airway compromise was present in 1.7% of cases. Odontogenic infection accounted for 822/1002 (82%) admissions. Of those with an infection of odontogenic origin, 453/822 (55.1%) had received previous treatment. Two-thirds of those who had received treatment were managed by antibiotics alone (300/453, 66.2%). Patients met criteria for sepsis in 437/1002 (43.6%) of CFI, and in 374/822 (45.5%) of odontogenic infections. This is the largest study worldwide of patients requiring inpatient management for CFI. Infection due to odontogenic origin is the most frequent reason for admission and nearly half do not seek treatment before presentation. Patients with CFI often present late in their disease and frequently meet criteria for sepsis, requiring timely and aggressive treatment to ensure optimum outcomes. Trismus is an emerging dominant feature with all the implications related to the anaesthetic management of these patients. Knowledge of these factors has implications for the referrer, triage, the emergency department, the anaesthetic team, and members of the OMFS team.

Common Problems, Common Data Model Solutions: Evidence Generation for Health Technology Assessment

There is growing interest in using observational data to assess the safety, effectiveness, and cost effectiveness of medical technologies, but operational, technical, and methodological challenges limit its more widespread use. Common data models and federated data networks offer a potential solution to many of these problems. The open-source Observational and Medical Outcomes Partnerships (OMOP) common data model standardises the structure, format, and terminologies of otherwise disparate datasets, enabling the execution of common analytical code across a federated data network in which only code and aggregate results are shared. While common data models are increasingly used in regulatory decision making, relatively little attention has been given to their use in health technology assessment (HTA). We show that the common data model has the potential to facilitate access to relevant data, enable multidatabase studies to enhance statistical power and transfer results across populations and settings to meet the needs of local HTA decision makers, and validate findings. The use of open-source and standardised analytics improves transparency and reduces coding errors, thereby increasing confidence in the results. Further engagement from the HTA community is required to inform the appropriate standards for mapping data to the common data model and to design tools that can support evidence generation and decision making.

Impact of the 2003 to 2018 Population Salt Intake Reduction Program in England: A Modeling Study

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

The United Kingdom was among the first countries to introduce a salt reduction program in 2003 to reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence risk. Despite its initial success, the program has stalled recently and is yet to achieve national and international targets. We used age- and sex-stratified salt intake of 19 to 64 years old participants in the National Diet and Nutrition Surveys 2000 to 2018 and a multistate life table model to assess the effects of the voluntary dietary salt reduction program on premature CVD, quality-adjusted survival, and health care and social care costs in England. The program reduced population-level salt intake from 9.38 grams/day per adult (SE, 0.16) in 2000 to 8.38 grams/day per adult (SE, 0.17) in 2018. Compared with a scenario of persistent 2000 levels, assuming that the population-level salt intake is maintained at 2018 values, by 2050, the program is projected to avoid 83 140 (95% CI, 73 710–84 520) premature ischemic heart disease (IHD) cases and 110 730 (95% CI, 98 390–112 260) premature strokes, generating 542 850 (95% CI, 529 020–556 850) extra quality-adjusted life-years and £1640 million (95% CI, £1570–£1660) health care cost savings for the adult population of England. We also projected the gains of achieving the World Health Organization target of 5 grams/day per adult by 2030, which by 2050 would avert further 87 870 (95% CI, 82 050–88 470) premature IHD cases, 126 010 (95% CI, 118 600–126 460) premature strokes and achieve £1260 million (95% CI, £1180–£1260) extra health care savings compared with maintaining 2018 levels. Strengthening the salt reduction program to achieve further reductions in population salt intake and CVD burden should be a high priority.

Outpatient physiotherapy versus home-based rehabilitation for patients at risk of poor outcomes after knee arthroplasty: CORKA RCT

BACKGROUND

Over 100,000 primary knee arthroplasty operations are undertaken annually in the UK. Around 15-30% of patients do not report a good outcome. Better rehabilitation strategies may improve patient-reported outcomes.

OBJECTIVES

To compare the outcomes from a traditional outpatient physiotherapy model with those from a home-based rehabilitation programme for people assessed as being at risk of a poor outcome after knee arthroplasty.

DESIGN

An individually randomised, two-arm controlled trial with a blinded outcome assessment, a parallel health economic evaluation and a nested qualitative study.

SETTING

The trial took place in 14 NHS physiotherapy departments.

PARTICIPANTS

People identified as being at high risk of a poor outcome after knee arthroplasty.

INTERVENTIONS

A multicomponent home-based rehabilitation package delivered by rehabilitation assistants with supervision from qualified therapists compared with usual-care outpatient physiotherapy.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was the Late Life Function and Disability Instrument at 12 months. Secondary outcomes were the Oxford Knee Score (a disease-specific measure of function); Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score; Quality of Life subscale; Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly; EuroQol-5 Dimensions, five-level version; and physical function assessed using the Figure-of-8 Walk Test, 30-Second Chair Stand Test and Single Leg Stance. Data on the use of health-care services, time off work and informal care were collected using participant diaries.

RESULTS

In total, 621 participants were randomised. A total of 309 participants were assigned to the COmmunity based Rehabilitation after Knee Arthroplasty (CORKA) home-based rehabilitation programme, receiving a median of five treatment sessions (interquartile range 4-7 sessions). A total of 312 participants were assigned to usual care, receiving a median of four sessions (interquartile range 2-6 sessions). The primary outcome, Late Life Function and Disability Instrument function total score at 12 months, was collected for 279 participants (89%) in the home-based CORKA group and 287 participants (92%) in the usual-care group. No clinically or statistically significant difference was found between the groups (intention-to-treat adjusted difference 0.49 points, 95% confidence interval -0.89 to 1.88 points; p = 0.48). There were no statistically significant differences between the groups in any of the patient-reported or physical secondary outcome measures at 6 or 12 months post randomisation. The health economic analysis found that the CORKA intervention was cheaper to provide than usual care (£66 less per participant). Total societal costs (combining health-care costs and other costs) were lower for the CORKA intervention than usual care (£316 less per participant). Adopting a societal perspective, CORKA had a 75% probability of being cost-effective at a threshold of £30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. Adopting the narrower health and social care perspective, CORKA had a 43% probability of being cost-effective at the same threshold.

LIMITATIONS

The interventions were of short duration and were set within current commissioning guidance for UK physiotherapy. Participants and treating therapists could not be blinded.

CONCLUSIONS

This randomised controlled trial found no important differences in outcomes when post-arthroplasty rehabilitation was delivered using a home-based, rehabilitation assistant-delivered rehabilitation package or a traditional outpatient model. However, the health economic evaluation found that when adopting a societal perspective, the CORKA home-based intervention was cost-saving and more effective than, and thus dominant over, usual care, owing to reduced time away from paid employment for this group. Further research could look at identifying the risk of poor outcome and further evaluation of a cost-effective treatment, including the workforce model to deliver it.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN13517704.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 65. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Deep phenotyping of 34,128 adult patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in an international network study

Comorbid conditions appear to be common among individuals hospitalised with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) but estimates of prevalence vary and little is known about the prior medication use of patients. Here, we describe the characteristics of adults hospitalised with COVID-19 and compare them with influenza patients. We include 34,128 (US: 8362, South Korea: 7341, Spain: 18,425) COVID-19 patients, summarising between 4811 and 11,643 unique aggregate characteristics. COVID-19 patients have been majority male in the US and Spain, but predominantly female in South Korea. Age profiles vary across data sources. Compared to 84,585 individuals hospitalised with influenza in 2014-19, COVID-19 patients have more typically been male, younger, and with fewer comorbidities and lower medication use. While protecting groups vulnerable to influenza is likely a useful starting point in the response to COVID-19, strategies will likely need to be broadened to reflect the particular characteristics of individuals being hospitalised with COVID-19.

Risk of hydroxychloroquine alone and in combination with azithromycin in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis: a multinational, retrospective study

Background

Hydroxychloroquine, a drug commonly used in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, has received much negative publicity for adverse events associated with its authorisation for emergency use to treat patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. We studied the safety of hydroxychloroquine, alone and in combination with azithromycin, to determine the risk associated with its use in routine care in patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

Methods

In this multinational, retrospective study, new user cohort studies in patients with rheumatoid arthritis aged 18 years or older and initiating hydroxychloroquine were compared with those initiating sulfasalazine and followed up over 30 days, with 16 severe adverse events studied. Self-controlled case series were done to further establish safety in wider populations, and included all users of hydroxychloroquine regardless of rheumatoid arthritis status or indication. Separately, severe adverse events associated with hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin (compared with hydroxychloroquine plus amoxicillin) were studied. Data comprised 14 sources of claims data or electronic medical records from Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Spain, the UK, and the USA. Propensity score stratification and calibration using negative control outcomes were used to address confounding. Cox models were fitted to estimate calibrated hazard ratios (HRs) according to drug use. Estimates were pooled where the I ² value was less than 0·4.

Findings

The study included 956 374 users of hydroxychloroquine, 310 350 users of sulfasalazine, 323 122 users of hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin, and 351 956 users of hydroxychloroquine plus amoxicillin. No excess risk of severe adverse events was identified when 30-day hydroxychloroquine and sulfasalazine use were compared. Self-controlled case series confirmed these findings. However, long-term use of hydroxychloroquine appeared to be associated with increased cardiovascular mortality (calibrated HR 1·65 [95% CI 1·12-2·44]). Addition of azithromycin appeared to be associated with an increased risk of 30-day cardiovascular mortality (calibrated HR 2·19 [95% CI 1·22-3·95]), chest pain or angina (1·15 [1·05-1·26]), and heart failure (1·22 [1·02-1·45]).

Interpretation

Hydroxychloroquine treatment appears to have no increased risk in the short term among patients with rheumatoid arthritis, but in the long term it appears to be associated with excess cardiovascular mortality. The addition of azithromycin increases the risk of heart failure and cardiovascular mortality even in the short term. We call for careful consideration of the benefit-risk trade-off when counselling those on hydroxychloroquine treatment.

Funding

National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, NIHR Senior Research Fellowship programme, US National Institutes of Health, US Department of Veterans Affairs, Janssen Research and Development, IQVIA, Korea Health Industry Development Institute through the Ministry of Health and Welfare Republic of Korea, Versus Arthritis, UK Medical Research Council Doctoral Training Partnership, Foundation Alfonso Martin Escudero, Innovation Fund Denmark, Novo Nordisk Foundation, Singapore Ministry of Health's National Medical Research Council Open Fund Large Collaborative Grant, VINCI, Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking, EU's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, and European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations.

BMI and Cause-Specific Hospital Admissions and Costs: The UK Biobank Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the effect of BMI on cause-specific hospital admissions and costs in men and women is not well understood, and this study's aim is to address this.

METHODS

For 451,320 men and women aged 40 years or older recruited into the UK Biobank, followed up for 6 years on average, this study estimated annual rates and costs (at 2016 UK prices) of hospital admissions, overall and by diagnostic category (using International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision chapters), in relation to BMI.

RESULTS

Among those who were never smokers, a 2-kg/m² higher BMI (above 20 kg/m² ) was associated with a 6.2% (99% CI: 5.3% to 7.2%) higher admission rate and an 8.6% (99% CI: 7.3% to 10.0%) higher annual cost in men and with a 5.7% (99% CI: 4.9% to 6.6%) higher admission rate and an 8.4% (99% CI: 7.5% to 9.3%) higher annual cost in women. Higher BMI was associated with higher admission rates and costs for many types of health conditions, particularly for endocrine, skin, and musculoskeletal disorders in both men and women and for circulatory diseases in men.

CONCLUSIONS

BMI beyond healthy weight is strongly associated with higher annual rates of hospital admission and higher costs in both men and women across a wide range of health conditions.

Deep phenotyping of 34,128 patients hospitalised with COVID-19 and a comparison with 81,596 influenza patients in America, Europe and Asia: an international network study

Background In this study we phenotyped individuals hospitalised with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in depth, summarising entire medical histories, including medications, as captured in routinely collected data drawn from databases across three continents. We then compared individuals hospitalised with COVID-19 to those previously hospitalised with influenza. Methods We report demographics, previously recorded conditions and medication use of patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in the US (Columbia University Irving Medical Center [CUIMC], Premier Healthcare Database [PHD], UCHealth System Health Data Compass Database [UC HDC], and the Department of Veterans Affairs [VA OMOP]), in South Korea (Health Insurance Review & Assessment [HIRA]), and Spain (The Information System for Research in Primary Care [SIDIAP] and HM Hospitales [HM]). These patients were then compared with patients hospitalised with influenza in 2014-19. Results 34,128 (US: 8,362, South Korea: 7,341, Spain: 18,425) individuals hospitalised with COVID-19 were included. Between 4,811 (HM) and 11,643 (CUIMC) unique aggregate characteristics were extracted per patient, with all summarised in an accompanying interactive website (http://evidence.ohdsi.org/Covid19CharacterizationHospitalization/). Patients were majority male in the US (CUIMC: 52%, PHD: 52%, UC HDC: 54%, VA OMOP: 94%,) and Spain (SIDIAP: 54%, HM: 60%), but were predominantly female in South Korea (HIRA: 60%). Age profiles varied across data sources. Prevalence of asthma ranged from 4% to 15%, diabetes from 13% to 43%, and hypertensive disorder from 24% to 70% across data sources. Between 14% and 33% were taking drugs acting on the renin-angiotensin system in the 30 days prior to hospitalisation. Compared to 81,596 individuals hospitalised with influenza in 2014-19, patients admitted with COVID-19 were more typically male, younger, and healthier, with fewer comorbidities and lower medication use. Conclusions We provide a detailed characterisation of patients hospitalised with COVID-19. Protecting groups known to be vulnerable to influenza is a useful starting point to minimize the number of hospital admissions needed for COVID-19. However, such strategies will also likely need to be broadened so as to reflect the particular characteristics of individuals hospitalised with COVID-19.

Systematic review of thromboprophylaxis in patients having orthognathic surgery

Orthognathic surgery is an elective procedure that is done in healthy individuals so complications such as thromboembolic events are rare. Pharmacological thromboprophylaxis, which reduces the risk of these events, may also increase blood loss and potentially the risk of life-threatening haemorrhage, so a state of clinical equipoise exists about whether it should be given routinely. We systematically reviewed published papers to identify the incidence of venous thromboembolism and haemorrhage in patients treated by orthognathic surgery who were, and were not, given pharmacological thromboprophylaxis. The pooled incidence of thromboembolic events was 0% in those who were, and 0.19% in those who were not. Return to theatre to control bleeding was required in 2.72% of the patients treated at centres where it was given, and in 0.55% at those where it was not. Small sample sizes, the heterogeneity of treatment protocols, and incomplete reporting made further statistical analysis impossible. The incidence of venous thromboembolism in patients who have orthognathic surgery is low when compared with the rest of the hospital population. Although pharmacological thromboprophylaxis may further reduce this, it can also increase blood loss, and uncertainty therefore remains over the best protocol for its routine use. The risk stratification of individual patients, and large randomised controlled trials are now required to establish the best treatment.

Detection of Cross-Correlation between Gravitational Lensing and γ Rays

In recent years, many γ-ray sources have been identified, yet the unresolved component hosts valuable information on the faintest emission. In order to extract it, a cross-correlation with gravitational tracers of matter in the Universe has been shown to be a promising tool. We report here the first identification of a cross-correlation signal between γ rays and the distribution of mass in the Universe probed by weak gravitational lensing. We use data from the Dark Energy Survey Y1 weak lensing data and the Fermi Large Area Telescope 9-yr γ-ray data, obtaining a signal-to-noise ratio of 5.3. The signal is mostly localized at small angular scales and high γ-ray energies, with a hint of correlation at extended separation. Blazar emission is likely the origin of the small-scale effect. We investigate implications of the large-scale component in terms of astrophysical sources and particle dark matter emission.

The Challenge of Transparency and Validation in Health Economic Decision Modelling: A View from Mount Hood

Transparency in health economic decision modelling is important for engendering confidence in the models and in the reliability of model-based cost-effectiveness analyses. The Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge Network has taken a lead in promoting transparency through validation with biennial conferences in which diabetes modelling groups meet to compare simulated outcomes of pre-specified scenarios often based on the results of pivotal clinical trials. Model registration is a potential method for promoting transparency, while also reducing the duplication of effort. An important network initiative is the ongoing construction of a diabetes model registry (https://www.mthooddiabeteschallenge.com). Following the 2012 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research and the Society of Medical Decision Making (ISPOR-SMDM) guidelines, we recommend that modelling groups provide technical and non-technical documentation sufficient to enable model reproduction, but not necessarily provide the model code. We also request that modelling groups upload documentation on the methods and outcomes of validation efforts, and run reference case simulations so that model outcomes can be compared. In this paper, we discuss conflicting definitions of transparency in health economic modelling, and describe the ongoing development of a registry of economic models for diabetes through the Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge Network, its objectives and potential further developments, and highlight the challenges in its construction and maintenance. The support of key stakeholders such as decision-making bodies and journals is key to ensuring the success of this and other registries. In the absence of public funding, the development of a network of modellers is of huge value in enhancing transparency, whether through registries or other means.

Body mass index and use and costs of primary care services among women aged 55-79 years in England: a cohort and linked data study

BACKGROUND

Excess weight is associated with poor health and increased healthcare costs. There are no reliable data describing the association between BMI and the use and costs of primary care services in the United Kingdom.

METHODS

Among 69,440 participants in the Million Women Study with primary care records in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink between April 2006 (mean age 64 years) and March 2014, the annual rates and costs of their primary care consultations, prescription medications, and diagnostic and monitoring tests were estimated in relation to their self-reported body mass index (BMI) at recruitment in 1996-2001 (mean age 56 years). Associations of BMI with annual costs were projected to all women in England aged 55-79 years in 2013.

RESULTS

Over an average follow-up of 6.0 years, annual rates and mean costs were lowest for women with a BMI of 20 to <22.5 kg/m2 for consultations (7.0 consultations, 99% CI 6.8-7.1; £288, £280-£295) and prescription medications (27.0 prescribed items, 26.0-27.9; £227, £216-£237). Above 20 kg/m2, a 2 kg/m2 higher BMI (a 5 kg change in weight for a woman of average height) was associated with 5.2% (4.8-5.6) and 9.9% (9.2-10.6) higher mean annual consultation and prescription medication costs, respectively. Annual rates and mean costs of diagnostic and monitoring tests were similar for women with different BMIs. Among all women aged 55-79 years in England, excess weight accounted for an estimated 11% (£229 million/£2.2 billion) of all consultation costs and 20% (£384 million/£1.9 billion) of all prescription medication costs, of which 27% were for diabetes drugs, 19% for circulatory system drugs, and 13% for analgesics.

CONCLUSIONS

Excess body weight is associated with higher use and costs of primary care services among women in England. Reducing the prevalence of excess weight could improve the health of women and reduce pressures on primary care.

The clinical and cost-effectiveness of total versus partial knee replacement in patients with medial compartment osteoarthritis (TOPKAT): 5-year outcomes of a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Late-stage isolated medial knee osteoarthritis can be treated with total knee replacement (TKR) or partial knee replacement (PKR). There is high variation in treatment choice and little robust evidence to guide selection. The Total or Partial Knee Arthroplasty Trial (TOPKAT) therefore aims to assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of TKR versus PKR in patients with medial compartment osteoarthritis of the knee, and this represents an analysis of the main endpoints at 5 years.

METHODS

Our multicentre, pragmatic randomised controlled trial was done at 27 UK sites. We used a combined expertise-based and equipoise-based approach, in which patients with isolated osteoarthritis of the medial compartment of the knee and who satisfied general requirements for a medial PKR were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive PKR or TKR by surgeons who were either expert in and willing to perform both surgeries or by a surgeon with particular expertise in the allocated procedure. The primary endpoint was the Oxford Knee Score (OKS) 5 years after randomisation in all patients assigned to groups. Health-care costs (in UK 2017 prices) and cost-effectiveness were also assessed. This trial is registered with ISRCTN (ISRCTN03013488) and ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01352247).

FINDINGS

Between Jan 18, 2010, and Sept 30, 2013, we assessed 962 patients for their eligibility, of whom 431 (45%) patients were excluded (121 [13%] patients did not meet the inclusion criteria and 310 [32%] patients declined to participate) and 528 (55%) patients were randomly assigned to groups. 94% of participants responded to the follow-up survey 5 years after their operation. At the 5-year follow-up, we found no difference in OKS between groups (mean difference 1·04, 95% CI -0·42 to 2·50; p=0·159). In our within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis, we found that PKR was more effective (0·240 additional quality-adjusted life-years, 95% CI 0·046 to 0·434) and less expensive (-£910, 95% CI -1503 to -317) than TKR during the 5 years of follow-up. This finding was a result of slightly better outcomes, lower costs of surgery, and lower follow-up health-care costs with PKR than TKR.

INTERPRETATION

Both TKR and PKR are effective, offer similar clinical outcomes, and result in a similar incidence of re-operations and complications. Based on our clinical findings, and results regarding the lower costs and better cost-effectiveness with PKR during the 5-year study period, we suggest that PKR should be considered the first choice for patients with late-stage isolated medial compartment osteoarthritis.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

Cosmological Constraints from Multiple Probes in the Dark Energy Survey

The combination of multiple observational probes has long been advocated as a powerful technique to constrain cosmological parameters, in particular dark energy. The Dark Energy Survey has measured 207 spectroscopically confirmed type Ia supernova light curves, the baryon acoustic oscillation feature, weak gravitational lensing, and galaxy clustering. Here we present combined results from these probes, deriving constraints on the equation of state, w, of dark energy and its energy density in the Universe. Independently of other experiments, such as those that measure the cosmic microwave background, the probes from this single photometric survey rule out a Universe with no dark energy, finding w=-0.80_{-0.11}^{+0.09}. The geometry is shown to be consistent with a spatially flat Universe, and we obtain a constraint on the baryon density of Ω_{b}=0.069_{-0.012}^{+0.009} that is independent of early Universe measurements. These results demonstrate the potential power of large multiprobe photometric surveys and pave the way for order of magnitude advances in our constraints on properties of dark energy and cosmology over the next decade.

Cost-effectiveness of lipid lowering with statins and ezetimibe in chronic kidney disease

Statin-based treatments reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in patients with non-dialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD), but it is unclear which regimen is the most cost-effective. We used the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP) CKD-CVD policy model to evaluate the effect of statins and ezetimibe on quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and health care costs in the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK). Net costs below $100,000/QALY (US) or £20,000/QALY (UK) were considered cost-effective. We investigated statin regimens with or without ezetimibe 10 mg. Treatment effects on cardiovascular risk were estimated per 1-mmol/L reduction in low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol as reported in the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists' Collaboration meta-analysis, and reductions in LDL cholesterol were estimated for each statin/ezetimibe regimen. In the US, atorvastatin 40 mg ($0.103/day as of January 2019) increased life expectancy by 0.23 to 0.31 QALYs in non-dialysis patients with stages 3B to 5 CKD, at a net cost of $20,300 to $78,200/QALY. Adding ezetimibe 10 mg ($0.203/day) increased life expectancy by an additional 0.05 to 0.07 QALYs, at a net cost of $43,600 to $91,500/QALY. The cost-effectiveness findings and policy implications in the UK were similar. In summary, in patients with non-dialysis-dependent CKD, the evidence suggests that statin/ezetimibe combination therapy is a cost-effective treatment to reduce the risk of CVD.

Is Doctor Referral to a Low-Energy Total Diet Replacement Program Cost-Effective for the Routine Treatment of Obesity?

OBJECTIVE

The study objective was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a commercially provided low-energy total diet replacement (TDR) program compared with nurse-led behavioral support.

METHODS

A multistate life table model and the weight reduction observed in a randomized controlled trial were used to evaluate the quality-adjusted life-years and direct health care costs (in United Kingdom 2017 prices) over a lifetime with TDR versus nurse-led support in adults who had obesity, assuming that (i) weight returns to baseline over 5 years and (ii) a 1-kg weight loss is maintained after 5 years following TDR.

RESULTS

The per-person costs of the TDR and nurse-led programs were £796 and £34, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of TDR was £12,955 (95% CI: £8,082-£17,827) assuming that all weight lost is regained and £3,203 (£2,580-£3,825) assuming that a 1-kg weight loss is maintained after 5 years. TDR was estimated to be more cost-effective (i.e., lower incremental cost-effectiveness ratios) in older adults and those with a higher BMI, with little difference by gender.

CONCLUSIONS

At current retail prices and with plausible long-term weight regain trajectories, TDR is projected to be cost-effective in adults with obesity and could be considered as an option to treat obesity in routine health care settings.

A policy model of cardiovascular disease in moderate-to-advanced chronic kidney disease

OBJECTIVE

To present a long-term policy model of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in moderate-to-advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD).

METHODS

A Markov model with transitions between CKD stages (3B, 4, 5, on dialysis, with kidney transplant) and cardiovascular events (major atherosclerotic events, haemorrhagic stroke, vascular death) was developed with individualised CKD and CVD risks estimated using the 5 years' follow-up data of the 9270 patients with moderate-to-severe CKD in the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP) and multivariate parametric survival analysis. The model was assessed in three further CKD cohorts and compared with currently used risk scores.

RESULTS

Higher age, previous cardiovascular events and advanced CKD were the main contributors to increased individual disease risks. CKD and CVD risks predicted by the state-transition model corresponded well to risks observed in SHARP and external cohorts. The model's predictions of vascular risk and progression to end-stage renal disease were better than, or comparable to, those produced by other risk scores. As an illustration, at age 60-69 years, projected survival for SHARP participants in CKD stage 3B was 13.5 years (10.6 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs)) in men and 14.8 years (10.7 QALYs) in women. Corresponding projections for participants on dialysis were 7.5 (5.6 QALYs) and 7.8 years (5.4 QALYs). A non-fatal major atherosclerotic event reduced life expectancy by about 2 years in stage 3B and by 1 year in dialysis.

CONCLUSIONS

The SHARP CKD-CVD model is a novel resource for evaluating health outcomes and cost-effectiveness of interventions in CKD.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT00125593 and ISRCTN54137607; Post-results.

Body mass index and healthcare costs: a systematic literature review of individual participant data studies

Excess weight is associated with increased total healthcare costs, but it is less well known how the associations between excess weight and costs vary across different types of healthcare service. We reviewed studies using individual participant data to estimate associations between body mass index and healthcare costs, and summarized how annual healthcare costs for overweight (body mass index 25 to <30 kg/m2 ) and obese (≥30 kg/m2 ) individuals compared with those for healthy weight individuals (18.5 to <25 kg/m2 ). EMBASE and MEDLINE were searched from January 1990 to September 2016, and 75 studies were included in the review. Of these, 34 studies presented adequate information to contribute to a quantitative summary of results. Compared with individuals at healthy weight, the median increases in mean total annual healthcare costs were 12% for overweight and 36% for obese individuals. The percentage increases in costs were highest for medications (18% for overweight and 68% for obese), followed by inpatient care (12% and 34%) and ambulatory care (4% and 26%). Percentage increases in costs associated with obesity were higher for women than men. The substantial costs associated with excess weight in different healthcare settings emphasize the need for investment to tackle this major public health problem.

Hospital costs in relation to body-mass index in 1·1 million women in England: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Excess weight is associated with poor health and increased health-care costs. However, a detailed understanding of the effects of excess weight on total hospital costs and costs for different health conditions is needed.

METHODS

Women in England aged 50-64 years were recruited into the prospective Million Women Study cohort in 1996-2001 through 60 NHS breast cancer screening centres. Participants were followed up and annual hospital costs and admission rates were estimated for April 1, 2006, to March 31, 2011, in relation to body-mass index (BMI) at recruitment, overall and for categories of health conditions defined by the International Classification of Diseases 10th revision chapter of the primary diagnosis at admission. Associations of BMI with hospital costs were projected to the 2013 population of women aged 55-79 years in England.

FINDINGS

1 093 866 women who provided information on height and weight, had a BMI of at least 18·5 kg/m2, and had no previous cancer at recruitment, were followed up for an average of 4·9 years from April 1, 2006 (12·3 years from recruitment), during which time 1·84 million hospital admissions were recorded. Annual hospital costs were lowest for women with a BMI of 20·0 kg/m2 to less than 22·5 kg/m2 (£567 per woman per year, 99% CI 556-577). Every 2 kg/m2 increase in BMI above 20 kg/m2 was associated with a 7·4% (7·1-7·6) increase in annual hospital costs. Excess weight was associated with increased costs for all diagnostic categories, except respiratory conditions and fractures. £662 million (14·6%) of the estimated £4·5 billion of total annual hospital costs among all women aged 55-79 years in England was attributed to excess weight (BMI ≥25 kg/m2), of which £517 million (78%) arose from hospital admissions with procedures. £258 million (39%) of the costs attributed to excess weight were due to musculoskeletal admissions, mainly for knee replacement surgeries.

INTERPRETATION

Excess body weight is associated with increased hospital costs for middle-aged and older women in England across a broad range of conditions, especially knee replacement surgery and diabetes. These results provide reliable up-to-date estimates of the health-care costs of excess weight and emphasise the need for investment to tackle this public health issue.

FUNDING

Cancer Research UK; Medical Research Council; National Institute for Health Research.

Perceptions of risks for diabetes-related complications in Type 2 diabetes populations: a systematic review

AIM

In Type 2 diabetes, there is no clear understanding of how people perceive their risk of experiencing diabetes-related complications. To address this issue, we undertook an evidence-based synthesis of how people with Type 2 diabetes perceive their risk of complications.

METHODS

We performed a systematic search of nine electronic databases for peer-reviewed articles published on or before 1 March 2016. Data from 18 studies reporting lay perceptions of risks for complications in Type 2 diabetes populations were included. Publication year ranged between 2002 and 2014.

RESULTS

Methods used to assess risk perceptions were heterogeneous, ranging from questionnaires measuring the accuracy of perceived risks to semi-structured and focus group interviews. We found evidence of low risk awareness in most dimensions of risk perceptions measured and the existence of optimistic bias.

CONCLUSIONS

Perceptions were generally biased and varied according to the dimension of risk measured, the subpopulation concerned and the type of complications considered. Future work is needed to identify the best practical ways of correcting for biased risk perceptions so as to encourage self-care behaviours and treatment adherence.

Effects of Vascular and Nonvascular Adverse Events and of Extended-Release Niacin With Laropiprant on Health and Healthcare Costs

BACKGROUND

Extended-release niacin with laropiprant did not significantly reduce the risk of major vascular events and increased the risk of serious adverse events in Heart Protection Study 2-Treatment of HDL to Reduce the Incidence of Vascular Events (HPS2-THRIVE), but its net effects on health and healthcare costs are unknown.

METHODS AND RESULTS

25 673 participants aged 50 to 80 years with previous cardiovascular disease were randomized to 2 g of extended-release niacin with 40 mg of laropiprant daily versus matching placebo, in addition to effective statin-based low-density lipoprotein cholesterol-lowering treatment. The net effects of niacin-laropiprant on quality-adjusted life years and hospital care costs (2012 UK £; converted into US $ using purchasing power parity index) during 4 years in HPS2-THRIVE were evaluated using estimates of the impact of serious adverse events on health-related quality of life and hospital care costs. During the study, participants assigned niacin-laropiprant experienced marginally but not statistically significantly lower survival (0.012 fewer years [standard error (SE) 0.007]), fewer quality-adjusted life years (0.023 [SE 0.007] fewer using UK EQ-5D scores; 0.020 [SE 0.006] fewer using US EQ-5D scores) and accrued greater hospital costs (UK £101 [SE £37]; US $145 [SE $53]). Stroke, heart failure, musculoskeletal events, gastrointestinal events, and infections were associated with significant decreases in health-related quality of life in both the year of the event and in subsequent years. All serious vascular and nonvascular events were associated with substantial increases in hospital care costs.

CONCLUSIONS

In HPS2-THRIVE, the addition of extended-release niacin-laropiprant to statin-based therapy reduced quality of life-adjusted survival and increased hospital costs.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: http://clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00461630.

A cardiovascular disease policy model: part 2-preparing for economic evaluation and to assess health inequalities

Objectives

This is the second of the two papers introducing a cardiovascular disease (CVD) policy model. The first paper described the structure and statistical underpinning of the state-transition model, demonstrating how life expectancy estimates are generated for individuals defined by ASSIGN risk factors. This second paper describes how the model is prepared to undertake economic evaluation.

Design

To generate quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE), the Scottish Health Survey was used to estimate background morbidity (health utilities) and the impact of CVD events (utility decrements). The SF-6D algorithm generated utilities and decrements were modelled using ordinary least squares (OLS). To generate lifetime hospital costs, the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort (SHHEC) was linked to the Scottish morbidity and death records (SMR) to cost each continuous inpatient stay (CIS). OLS and restricted cubic splines estimated annual costs before and after each of the first four events. A Kaplan-Meier sample average (KMSA) estimator was then used to weight expected health-related quality of life and costs by the probability of survival.

Results

The policy model predicts the change in QALE and lifetime hospital costs as a result of an intervention(s) modifying risk factors. Cost-effectiveness analysis and a full uncertainty analysis can be undertaken, including probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Notably, the impacts according to socioeconomic deprivation status can be made.

Conclusions

The policy model can conduct cost-effectiveness analysis and decision analysis to inform approaches to primary prevention, including individually targeted and population interventions, and to assess impacts on health inequalities.

Cost-effectiveness of Simvastatin plus Ezetimibe for Cardiovascular Prevention in CKD: Results of the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP)

Background

Simvastatin, 20 mg, plus ezetimibe, 10 mg, daily (simvastatin plus ezetimibe) reduced major atherosclerotic events in patients with moderate to severe chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP), but its cost-effectiveness is unknown.

Study Design

Cost-effectiveness of simvastatin plus ezetimibe in SHARP, a randomized controlled trial.

Setting & Population

9,270 patients with CKD randomly assigned to simvastatin plus ezetimibe versus placebo; participants in categories by 5-year cardiovascular risk (low, <10%; medium, 10%-<20%; or high, ≥20%) and CKD stage (3, 4, 5 not on dialysis, or on dialysis therapy).

Model, Perspective, & Timeline

Assessment during SHARP follow-up from the UK perspective; long-term projections.

Intervention

Simvastatin plus ezetimibe (2015 UK £1.19 per day) during 4.9 years’ median follow-up in SHARP; scenario analyses with high-intensity statin regimens (2015 UK £0.05-£1.06 per day).

Outcomes

Additional health care costs per major atherosclerotic event avoided and per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained.

Results

In SHARP, the proportional reductions per 1 mmol/L of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol reduction with simvastatin plus ezetimibe in all major atherosclerotic events of 20% (95% CI, 6%-32%) and in the costs of vascular hospital episodes of 17% (95% CI, 4%-28%) were similar across participant categories by cardiovascular risk and CKD stage. The 5-year reduction in major atherosclerotic events per 1,000 participants ranged from 10 in low-risk to 58 in high-risk patients and from 28 in CKD stage 3 to 36 in patients on dialysis therapy. The net cost per major atherosclerotic event avoided with simvastatin plus ezetimibe compared to no LDL-lowering regimen ranged from £157,060 in patients at low risk to £15,230 in those at high risk (£30,500-£39,600 per QALY); and from £47,280 in CKD stage 3 to £28,180 in patients on dialysis therapy (£13,000-£43,300 per QALY). In scenario analyses, generic high-intensity statin regimens were estimated to yield similar benefits at substantially lower cost.

Limitations

High-intensity statin-alone regimens were not studied in SHARP.

Conclusions

Simvastatin plus ezetimibe prevented atherosclerotic events in SHARP, but other less costly statin regimens are likely to be more cost-effective for reducing cardiovascular risk in CKD.

Fever and sickness behavior: Friend or foe?

Fever has been recognized as an important symptom of disease since ancient times. For many years, fever was treated as a putative life-threatening phenomenon. More recently, it has been recognized as an important part of the body's defense mechanisms; indeed at times it has even been used as a therapeutic agent. The knowledge of the functional role of the central nervous system in the genesis of fever has greatly improved over the last decade. It is clear that the febrile process, which develops in the sick individual, is just one of many brain-controlled sickness symptoms. Not only will the sick individual appear "feverish" but they may also display a range of behavioral changes, such as anorexia, fatigue, loss of interest in usual daily activities, social withdrawal, listlessness or malaise, hyperalgesia, sleep disturbances and cognitive dysfunction, collectively termed "sickness behavior". In this review we consider the issue of whether fever and sickness behaviors are friend or foe during: a critical illness, the common cold or influenza, in pregnancy and in the newborn. Deciding whether these sickness responses are beneficial or harmful will very much shape our approach to the use of antipyretics during illness.