Opioid Use for Adults with and without Systemic Autoimmune/Inflammatory Rheumatic Diseases: Analysis of 2006-2019 United States National Data

OBJECTIVES

This study compared opioid prescribing among ambulatory visits with Systemic Autoimmune/Inflammatory Rheumatic Diseases (SARDs) or without, and assessed factors associated with opioid prescribing in SARDs.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study used the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey between 2006 and 2019. Adult (≥18) visits with a primary diagnosis of SARDs, including rheumatoid arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, psoriatic arthritis, or systemic lupus erythematosus were included in the study. Opioid prescribing was compared between those with vs. without SARDs using multivariable logistic regression (MLR) accounting for the complex survey design and adjusting for predisposing, enabling, and need factors within Andersen's Behavioral Model of Health Services Use. Another MLR examined the predictors associated with opioid prescribing in SARDs.

RESULTS

Annually, an average of 5.20 (95% CI 3.58-6.82) million visits were made for SARDs, whereas 780.14 (95% CI 747.56-812.72) million visits were made for non-SARDs. The SARDs group was more likely to be prescribed opioids (22.53%) than the non-SARDs group (9.83%) (aOR 2.65 [95% CI 1.68-4.18]). Among the SARDs visits, adults aged 50-64 (aOR 1.95 [95% CI 1.05-3.65] relative to ages 18-49) and prescribing of glucocorticoids (aOR 1.75 [95% CI 1.20-2.54]) were associated with an increased odd of opioid prescribing, whereas private insurance relative to Medicare (aOR 0.50 [95% CI 0.31-0.82]) was associated with a decreased odds of opioid prescribing.

CONCLUSIONS

Opioid prescribing in SARDs was higher compared to non-SARDs. Concerted efforts are needed to determine the appropriateness of opioid prescribing in SARDs.

Factors associated with adherence of cervical cancer screening in women with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

OBJECTIVES

To determine cervical cancer screening rates and factors associated with decreased cervical cancer screening in women with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study that enrolled consecutive women (aged 21-64) with SLE. We collected demographics, clinical characteristics, constructs of the Health Beliefs Model (HBM) (i.e., susceptibility, severity, barriers, benefits, cues to action, and self-efficacy), and self-reported cervical cancer screening (confirmed with the electronic medical record). The primary outcome was adherence to cervical cancer screening according to current guidelines. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine the association between SLE disease activity and cervical cancer screening, and explore mediation effects from HBM constructs.

RESULTS

We enrolled 130 women with SLE. The median age was 42 (IQR 32-52). The cervical cancer screening adherence rate was 61.5%. Women with high SLE disease activity were less likely to have cervical cancer screening versus those with low disease activity (OR 0.59, 0.39-0.89, p=0.01), which remained statistically significant after adjusting for baseline demographics and drug therapy in a multivariable model (OR 0.25, 95% CI 0.08-0.79, p=0.02). Regarding the HBM constructs, increased perceived barriers to cervical cancer screening (r=-0.30, p < 0.01) and decreased self-efficacy (r=-0.21, p=0.02) correlated with decreased cervical cancer screening.

CONCLUSION

SLE patients with high disease activity undergo cervical cancer screening less frequently than those with low disease activated. Perceived barriers to cervical cancer screening are moderately correlated with decreased screening. These data highlight to need to develop strategies to increase cervical cancer screening in this high-risk patient population.

Patient outcomes in longitudinal observational studies (POLOS) of rheumatoid arthritis: Determining the OMERACT core domain set

OBJECTIVE

To define and select rheumatoid arthritis (RA)-specific core domain set for Longitudinal Observational Studies (LOS) within the Outcome Measures in Rheumatology (OMERACT) framework.

METHODS

A three-round online Delphi exercise, including patient research partners (PRPs) and other community partners in healthcare, was conducted. Domains scored 7-9 (i.e., critically important to include) by ≥ 70 % of participants in both groups were included. Items were consolidated in a subsequent dedicated meeting.

RESULTS

Nineteen domains scored ≥ 70 % consensus in both groups. The focus group refined these into a list of twelve domains.

CONCLUSION

The achieved consensus will inform the next steps of developing the core domain set for LOS in RA.

Immunosuppression for the treatment of pulmonary hypertension in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: A systematic review

PURPOSE

To conduct a systematic review with meta-analysis to determine the effects of immunosuppression on Group 1 Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).

METHODS

We searched Medline, Embase, Web of Science, Clinicaltrials.gov, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) with a search strategy developed by a medical librarian. We included retrospective, cross-sectional, case-control, prospective studies, and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in our analysis and only included studies that contained data for patients with SLE. We included any immunosuppressive agents (including but not limited to cyclophosphamide, glucocorticoids, mycophenolate mofetil, azathioprine, and rituximab) We assessed for risk of bias and certainty of evidence. Outcomes included hemodynamics (as measured by pulmonary arterial hypertension), functional status, 6 minute walk test (6MWT), quality of life, mortality, and serious adverse events.

RESULTS

We included three studies. One RCT and two single-arm interventional observational studies. The RCT had a high risk of bias whereas the two single-arm interventional studies were graded as fair quality. Meta-analysis could not be conducted because of insufficient data. The RCT showed significant improvements in hemodynamics (as measured by pulmonary arterial pressures) and functional status. One observational study showed improvements in hemodynamics, functional status, and 6MWT. There were insufficient data for serious adverse events, mortality, and quality of life.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite a high prevalence and with a poor prognosis, there is a paucity of data for the role of immunosuppression in the treatment of Group 1 Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension in SLE. More high-quality studies are needed, especially to investigate serious adverse events and quality of life.

Systemic Lupus Erythematosus and Mortality in Elderly Patients With Early Breast Cancer

OBJECTIVE

Patients with cancer and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) may have worse outcomes than those without SLE, given their comorbidities. We examined survival in elderly women with breast cancer (BC) and SLE and hypothesized that survival would be decreased compared with women with BC but without SLE.

METHODS

We identified patients with BC and SLE and patients with BC without SLE in the Texas Cancer Registry and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results, linked to Medicare claims. Overall survival (OS) was estimated after matching (age and cancer stage) and in multivariable Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for other cancer characteristics, treatment, and comorbidities. Two additional cohorts of women without cancer with and without SLE were also studied.

RESULTS

We identified 494 BC SLE cases and 145,517 BC non-SLE cases, of whom we matched 9,708. Women with SLE were less likely to receive radiation, breast conserving surgery, or endocrine therapy. The 8-year OS estimate for women with early BC (stages 0-II) with and without SLE was 52% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 45%-59%) and 74% (95% CI 73%-75%), respectively. In the Cox multivariable model, BC and SLE had increased risk of death (hazard ratio [HR] 1.65, 95% CI 1.38-1.98). Women with BC and SLE also had increased risk of death compared with women with SLE but without cancer (HR 1.42, 95% CI 1.05-1.92) after adjusting for SLE severity. Women with SLE and BC received less glucocorticoids, antimalarials, and immunosuppressants after cancer diagnosis than those without cancer.

CONCLUSION

Systemic lupus is a risk factor for increased mortality in women with early BC.

Risks of mortality and severe coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) outcomes in patients with or without systemic lupus erythematosus

OBJECTIVES

We compared the outcomes of patients with or without systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) who were diagnosed with coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) and evaluated factors within patients with SLE associated with severe outcomes.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study used the deidentified Optum COVID-19 electronic health record dataset to identify patients with COVID-19 from 1/1/2020 to 31/12/2020. Cases with SLE were matched with general controls at a ratio of 1:10 by age, sex, race and ethnicity and COVID-19 diagnosis date. Outcomes included 30-day mortality, mechanical ventilation, hospitalisation and intensive care unit admission. We evaluated the relationship between COVID-19-related outcomes and SLE using multivariable logistic regression. In addition, within SLE cases, we examined factors associated with COVID-19 related outcomes, including disease activity and SLE therapy.

RESULTS

We included 687 patients matched with 6870 controls. Unadjusted rates of outcomes for patients with SLE were significantly worse than for matched controls including mortality (3.6% vs 1.8%), mechanical ventilation (6% vs 2.5%) and hospitalisation (31% vs 17.7%) (all p<0.001). After multivariable adjustment, patients with SLE had increased risks of mechanical ventilation (OR 1.81, 95% CI 1.16 to 2.82) and hospitalisation (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.65). Among patients with SLE, severe disease activity was associated with increased risks of mechanical ventilation (OR 5.83, 95% CI 2.60 to 13.07) and hospitalisation (OR 3.97, 95% CI 2.37 to 6.65). Use of glucocorticoids, mycophenolate and tacrolimus before COVID-19 was associated with worse outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Patients with SLE had increased risk of severe COVID-19-related outcomes compared with matched controls. Patients with severe SLE disease activity or prior use of corticosteroids experienced worse outcomes.

Targeting type I interferons in systemic lupus erythematous

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a complex autoimmune disease with systemic clinical manifestations including, but not limited to, rash, inflammatory arthritis, serositis, glomerulonephritis, and cerebritis. Treatment options for SLE are expanding and the increase in our understanding of the immune pathogenesis is leading to the development of new therapeutics. Autoantibody formation and immune complex formation are important mediators in lupus pathogenesis, but an important role of the type I interferon (IFN) pathway has been identified in SLE patients and mouse models of lupus. These studies have led to the development of therapeutics targeting type I IFN and related pathways for the treatment of certain manifestations of SLE. In the current narrative review, we will discuss the role of type I IFN in SLE pathogenesis and the potential translation of these data into strategies using type I IFN as a biomarker and therapeutic target for patients with SLE.

The effects of glucocorticoids and immunosuppressants on cancer outcomes in checkpoint inhibitor therapy

The emergence of checkpoint inhibitors has created a paradigm shift for the treatment of various malignancies. However, although these therapies are associated with improved survival rates, they also carry the risk of immune-related adverse events (irAEs). Moderate to severe irAEs are typically treated with glucocorticoids, sometimes with the addition of immunosuppressants as steroid-sparing therapy. However, it is unclear how glucocorticoids and immunosuppressants may impact cancer survival and the efficacy of immune checkpoint therapy on cancer. In this narrative review, we discuss the effects of glucocorticoids and immunosuppressants including methotrexate, hydroxychloroquine, azathioprine, mycophenolate mofetil, tumor-necrosis factor (TNF)-inhibitors, interleukin-6 inhibitors, interleukin-1 inhibitors, abatacept, rituximab, and Janus kinase inhibitors (JAKi) on cancer-specific outcomes in the setting of immune checkpoint inhibitor use.

Stem cell transplantation for systemic sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a chronic autoimmune disease characterized by systemic inflammation, fibrosis, vascular injury, reduced quality of life, and limited treatment options. Autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) has emerged as a potential intervention for severe SSc refractory to conventional treatment.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the benefits and harms of autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation for the treatment of systemic sclerosis (specifically, non-selective myeloablative HSCT versus cyclophosphamide; selective myeloablative HSCT versus cyclophosphamide; non-selective non-myeloablative HSCT versus cyclophosphamide).

SEARCH METHODS

We searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, and trial registries from database insertion to 4 February 2022.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included RCTs that compared HSCT to immunomodulators in the treatment of SSc.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently selected studies for inclusion, extracted study data, and performed risk of bias and GRADE assessments to assess the certainty of evidence using standard Cochrane methods.

MAIN RESULTS

We included three RCTs evaluating: non-myeloablative non-selective HSCT (10 participants), non-myeloablative selective HSCT (79 participants), and myeloablative selective HSCT (36 participants). The comparator in all studies was cyclophosphamide (123 participants). The study examining non-myeloablative non-selective HSCT had a high risk of bias given the differences in baseline characteristics between the two arms. The other studies had a high risk of detection bias for participant-reported outcomes. The studies had follow-up periods of one to 4.5 years. Most participants had severe disease, mean age 40 years, and the duration of disease was less than three years. Efficacy No study demonstrated an overall mortality benefit of HSCT when compared to cyclophosphamide. However, non-myeloablative selective HSCT showed overall survival benefits using Kaplan-Meier curves at 10 years and myeloablative selective HSCT at six years. We graded our certainty of evidence as moderate for non-myeloablative selective HSCT and myeloablative selective HSCT. Certainty of evidence was low for non-myeloablative non-selective HSCT. Event-free survival was improved compared to cyclophosphamide with non-myeloablative selective HSCT at 48 months (hazard ratio (HR) 0.34, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.16 to 0.74; moderate-certainty evidence). There was no improvement with myeloablative selective HSCT at 54 months (HR 0.54 95% CI 0.23 to 1.27; moderate-certainty evidence). The non-myeloablative non-selective HSCT trial did not report event-free survival. There was improvement in functional ability measured by the Health Assessment Questionnaire Disability Index (HAQ-DI, scale from 0 to 3 with 3 being very severe functional impairment) with non-myeloablative selective HSCT after two years with a mean difference (MD) of -0.39 (95% CI -0.72 to -0.06; absolute treatment benefit (ATB) -13%, 95% CI -24% to -2%; relative percent change (RPC) -27%, 95% CI -50% to -4%; low-certainty evidence). Myeloablative selective HSCT demonstrated a risk ratio (RR) for improvement of 3.4 at 54 months (95% CI 1.5 to 7.6; ATB -37%, 95% CI -18% to -57%; RPC -243%, 95% CI -54% to -662%; number needed to treat for an additional beneficial outcome (NNTB) 3, 95% CI 2 to 9; low-certainty evidence). The non-myeloablative non-selective HSCT trial did not report HAQ-DI results. All transplant modalities showed improvement of modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) (scale from 0 to 51 with the higher number being more severe skin thickness) favoring HSCT over cyclophosphamide. At two years, non-myeloablative selective HSCT showed an MD in mRSS of -11.1 (95% CI -14.9 to -7.3; ATB -22%, 95% CI -29% to -14%; RPC -43%, 95% CI -58% to -28%; moderate-certainty evidence). At 54 months, myeloablative selective HSCT at showed a greater improvement in skin scores than the cyclophosphamide group (RR 1.51, 95% CI 1.06 to 2.13; ATB -27%, 95% CI -6% to -47%; RPC -51%, 95% CI -6% to -113%; moderate-certainty evidence). The NNTB was 4 (95% CI 3 to 18). At one year, for non-myeloablative non-selective HSCT the MD was -16.00 (95% CI -26.5 to -5.5; ATB -31%, 95% CI -52% to -11%; RPC -84%, 95% CI -139% to -29%; low-certainty evidence). No studies reported data on pulmonary arterial hypertension. Adverse events In the non-myeloablative selective HSCT study, there were 51/79 serious adverse events with HSCT and 30/77 with cyclophosphamide (RR 1.7, 95% CI 1.2 to 2.3), with an absolute risk increase of 26% (95% CI 10% to 41%), and a relative percent increase of 66% (95% CI 20% to 129%). The number needed to treat for an additional harmful outcome was 4 (95% CI 3 to 11) (moderate-certainty evidence). In the myeloablative selective HSCT study, there were similar rates of serious adverse events between groups (25/34 with HSCT and 19/37 with cyclophosphamide; RR 1.43, 95% CI 0.99 to 2.08; moderate-certainty evidence). The non-myeloablative non-selective HSCT trial did not clearly report serious adverse events.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Non-myeloablative selective and myeloablative selective HSCT had moderate-certainty evidence for improvement in event-free survival, and skin thicknesscompared to cyclophosphamide. There is also low-certainty evidence that these modalities of HSCT improve physical function. However, non-myeloablative selective HSCT and myeloablative selective HSCT resulted in more serious adverse events than cyclophosphamide; highlighting the need for careful risk-benefit considerations for people considering these HSCTs. Evidence for the efficacy and adverse effects of non-myeloablative non-selective HSCT is limited at this time. Due to evidence provided from one study with high risk of bias, we have low-certainty evidence that non-myeloablative non-selective HSCT improves outcomes in skin scores, forced vital capacity, and safety. Two modalities of HSCT appeared to be a promising treatment option for SSc though there is a high risk of early treatment-related mortality and other adverse events. Additional research is needed to determine the effectiveness and adverse effects of non-myeloablative non-selective HSCT in the treatment of SSc. Also, more studies will be needed to determine how HSCT compares to other treatment options such as mycophenolate mofetil, as cyclophosphamide is no longer the first-line treatment for SSc. Finally, there is a need for a greater understanding of the role of HSCT for people with SSc with significant comorbidities or complications from SSc that were excluded from the trial criteria.

AB0516 IN-HOSPITAL MORTALITY IN YOUNG PATIENTS WITH SYSTEMIC LUPUS ERYTHEMATOSUS (SLE) AND ASSOCIATED CLINICAL FEATURES

Background

Patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) are three times more likely to die from any cause as compared to patients without SLE.1 This is largely driven by cardiovascular disease, malignancy, and an increased risk of infection. Alarmingly, recent studies have shown that younger patients with SLE are particularly vulnerable to all-cause mortality.1 However, there is a paucity in knowledge about patient characteristics and specific etiologies of mortality in this population that needs to be described in order to implement strategies to improve outcomes in younger patients with SLE.

Objectives

To identify disease characteristics and etiologies of mortality in young patients with SLE that died while hospitalized.

Methods

A retrospective chart review of a multi-institutional publicly funded health system in Texas, USA was performed. Deceased patients aged 18-49 with a 2019 EULAR/ACR diagnosis of SLE were identified from 2012 to 2021. Patients with mixed connective tissue disease, missing records, or cardiac arrest in the emergency room that did not have a clear etiology of death were excluded. Data was extracted from the electronic medical records by two independent reviewers to determine the most likely cause of death. If there was any discrepancy between the reviewers, this would be resolved by a third-party reviewer. Baseline demographics, disease activity by the SLE disease activity index (SLEDAI), medications, and reasons for prednisone administration were collected.

Results

Twenty- six patients with SLE (age range 22 to 48) that died in the hospital were identified. The most common cause of death was infection (58%) followed by lupus activity (15%). Of those that died of infection, all but one was on a two-month average dose of prednisone ≥10mg. Furthermore, the majority of patients (71%) that were on prednisone doses of ≥10mg had not undergone a prednisone taper within two months (i.e. were on a consistent dose). This was because of either persistent disease activity or poor follow-up.

Conclusion

To our knowledge, this is the first study to describe characteristics of young patients with SLE that died during hospitalization. Our findings show that young patients with SLE primarily die from infection while on increased doses of corticosteroids that have not been tapered. Further research is warranted to determine association and causality of these findings with mortality. Practitioners should remain vigilant and continue to taper steroids as able as this may be a potential source of mortality in young patients with SLE.

References

[1]Tselios K, Gladman DD, Sheane BJ, Su J, Urowitz M. All-cause, cause-specific and age-specific standardised mortality ratios of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus in Ontario, Canada over 43 years (1971-2013). Ann Rheum Dis 2019;78:802-6.

Table 1.

Baseline characteristics of SLE patients that experienced in-hospital mortality.

SLE Cases(n = 26)Female, n (%)20 (77)Age, range in years22 to 48Race and Ethnicity, n (%)Black6 (23)Hispanic19 (73)Asian1 (4)Disease manifestationsLupus nephritis18 (69)End-stage renal disease3 (12)SLEDAI before admission (median, IQR)7 (4 to 11)SLEDAI on admission (median, IQR)6 (2 to 11)MedicationsPrednisone25 (96)Hydroxychloroquine19 (73)Mycophenolate9 (35)Cyclophosphamide7 (27)Belimumab1 (4)Cause of deathInfection15 (58)Lupus activity4 (15)Cardiogenic shock2 (8)Cancer2 (8)Other3 (12)

IQR = Interquartile range

Acknowledgements

I have no acknowledgements to declare.

Disclosure of Interests

None declared

AB0488 THE UTILITY OF ERYTHROCYTE SEDIMENTATION RATE, C-REACTIVE PROTEIN, AND PROCALCITONIN IN DETECTING INFECTIONS IN PATIENTS WITH SYSTEMIC LUPUS ERYTHEMATOSUS: A DIAGNOSTIC TEST ACCURACY REVIEW

Background

Patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) are at an increased risk of hospitalization for flares or infections. In practice, diagnosing SLE flares versus infection can be challenging as both present with similar signs and symptoms. Strategies are needed to help differentiate between infections and SLE flares in hospitalized patients. Erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), C-reactive protein (CRP), and procalcitonin (PCT) are commonly used to aid in the diagnosis of infection in hospitalized patients, however, their utility in SLE is unclear.

Objectives

To summarize the evidence about accuracy of ESR, CRP, and PCT in diagnosing infection in hospitalized patients with SLE.

Methods

We searched five databases until April 2021. We included studies published in English investigating levels of ESR, CRP, or PCT on adults hospitalized with a diagnosis of SLE comparing infection versus non-infection. We excluded studies with no clinical data, inadequate data to perform analysis, different conditions, and not relevant study types (such as case reports, other reviews). We also excluded studies with overlapping data (e.g., abstracts that are later published as full-text articles). We used the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Studies to assess for bias and applicability. We obtained pooled sensitivities and specificities from studies that used similar cut-offs. We also generated mean differences for ESR, CRP, and PCT in infection versus non-infection hospitalized SLE patients.

Results

We included 26 studies in our analysis. Most studies had an unclear or high risk of bias. Most patients from both infection and non-infection groups were women aged from 27-40 years. The definitions for infection were heterogenous but mainly included positive culture or biochemical testing, suggestive imaging, response to antibiotics, or obvious signs/symptoms (such as purulence). The CRP had a pooled sensitivity of 0.75 (95%CI 0.57-0.94) and specificity of 0.72 (0.59-0.85), PCT had a pooled sensitivity of 0.68 (95% CI 0.0.59-0.77) and specificity of 0.75 (0.59-0.90), and for ESR pooled estimates were not calculated due to insufficient data but sensitivity ranged from 50 to 69.8 and specificity from 38.5 to 55.6. Modifying cut-offs improved sensitivities and specificities (see Table 1). The ESR, CRP, and PCT mean differences were all greater in infection groups versus non-infection (10.1, 95% CI 3.2-17.0; 46.8, 95% CI 36.5-57.0; 0.53, 95% CI 0.26-0.80; respectively).

Table 1.

Pooled sensitivity and specificities of CRP and PCT

Studies(n)Sensitivity(95% CI)Specificity(95% CI)CRPCRP < 1030.68 (0.48-0.89)0.70 (0.62-0.77)CRP > 1020.91 (0.86-0.97)0.87 (0.81-0.93)Overall50.75 (0.57-0.94)0.72 (0.59-0.85)ProcalcitoninPCT > 0.230.66 (0.50-0.81)0.84 (0.76-0.92)PCT < 0.230.70 (0.61-0.80)0.61 (0.53-0.69)Overall60.68 (0.59-0.77)0.75 (0.59-0.90)

Conclusion

Our study showed that although ESR, CRP, and PCT mean values are increased in hospitalized infected SLE patients compared to patients with no infection, the included studies used varying cut-offs for sensitivities and specificities and definitions for infection decreasing the uncertainty on the results and making the clinical usefulness of these biomarkers unclear. Our findings at this time do not support the widespread use of these biochemical markers in SLE patients and highlight the need that more research is needed to investigate the use of these markers in this patient population.

Disclosure of Interests

None declared

POS0195 PATIENTS WITH SYSTEMIC LUPUS ERYTHEMATOSUS HAVE AN INCREASED RISK OF MORTALITY, MECHANICAL VENTILATION, AND HOSPITALIZATION FROM COVID-19

Background

Patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) may have an increased risk of mortality from COVID-19 due to underlying immunosuppression, comorbidities, and abnormalities in the innate immune system. Studies have shown that autoimmune diseases and some immunosuppressive agents are risk factors for hospitalization, ventilation, and mortality from COVID-19.

Objectives

To compare the outcomes of patients with or without SLE who were diagnosed with COVID-19 and to identify the factors associated with 30-day hospitalization, mechanical ventilation, and mortality. We hypothesized that patients with SLE had a higher risk of adverse outcomes.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study used the deidentified Optum COVID-19 electronic health record dataset to identify adult patients with COVID-19 diagnosis from 1/1/2020 – 12/31/2020. The SLE cohort was defined as patients who had two or more international classification of diseases (ICD) 9 or 10 diagnosis codes of 710.0 or M32.xx but not M32.0 within one year before COVID-19 diagnosis and were on either antimalarial or immunosuppressive therapy. The general cohort excluded patients with SLE. We matched SLE cases with controls at a ratio of 1:10 by age, sex, race and ethnicity, and month of COVID-19 diagnosis via a propensity score matching with exact matching for the latter three variables. Outcomes included 30-day mortality, hospitalization, and mechanical ventilation after COVID-19 diagnosis. We performed multivariable logistic regression models to estimate the odds of 30-day mortality, hospitalization, and mechanical ventilation after adjusting for age, sex, race and ethnicity, COVID-19 diagnosis quarter, insurance, region, severe obesity, smoking status, and comorbidities.

Results

We included 687 SLE cases matched with 6,870 controls. After matching, the 30-day mortality for SLE and control was 3.6% and 1.8% (p <0.001), the 30-day mechanical ventilation was 6.0% and 2.5% (p <0.001), and 30-day hospitalization was 31.0% and 17.7% (p <0.001). After multivariable adjustment (Table 1) for age, sex, race, COVID-19 diagnosis quarter, insurance, region, severe obesity, and smoking status, patients with SLE had higher odds of death (Odds Ratio (OR)=2.09; 95% CI 1.31-3.32), mechanical ventilation (OR=2.43; 95% CI 1.67-3.54) and hospitalization (OR=2.06; 95% CI 1.71-2.49). After additionally adjusting for comorbidities, the OR decreased to 1.39 (95%CI 0.79-2.44), 1.81 (95%CI 1.16-2.82), and 1.32 (95%CI 1.05-1.65) for mortality, mechanical ventilation, and hospitalization respectively. Older age, male sex, Hispanic ethnicity or Black race, severe obesity, and smoking had increased risk of adverse outcomes.

Table 1.

Multivariable logistic regression model of 30-day mortality, 30-day mechanical ventilation, and 30-day hospitalization on matched cohort adjusting for demographic and comorbidity score

VariablesModel 1*Odds Ratio (95% CI)Model 2**Odds Ratio (95% CI)MortalityControl11SLE2.09 (1.31 to 3.32)1.39 (0.79 to 2.44)30-day mechanical ventilationControl11SLE2.43 (95% CI 1.67 to 3.54)1.81 (1.16 to 2.82)HospitalizationControl11SLE2.06 (1.71 to 2.49)1.32 (1.05 to 1.65)

SLE: systemic lupus erythematosus; CI: confidence interval.

*Model 1 includes adjustments for age, sex, race, COVID-19 diagnosis date (by quarter), insurance, region, severe obesity, smoking status, and skilled nursing facility stay three months before COVID-19 diagnosis.

**Model 2 includes adjustments from model 1 and comorbidities (excluding SLE).

Conclusion

Patients with SLE have an increased risks of mortality, mechanical ventilation, and hospitalization within 30 days of COVID-19 diagnosis. The risks decreased after adjustment for comorbidities but remained statistically significant for mechanical ventilation and hospitalization.

Disclosure of Interests

Sebastian Bruera: None declared, Xiudong Lei: None declared, Hui Zhao: None declared, Jinoos Yazdany Consultant of: She has performed consulting for Aurinia, Astra Zeneca, and Pfizer, unrelated to this work., Grant/research support from: Dr. Yazdany has research grants from Astra Zeneca, Gilead and the Bristol Myers Squibb Foundation unrelated to this work., Mariana Chavez-Macgregor: None declared, Sharon Giordano: None declared, Maria Suarez-Almazor Consultant of: Dr, Suarez-Almazor has been a consultant for Pfizer, Eli Lilly, Chemosentryx, Bristol Myers Squibb.

All unrelated to the topic of this study.

Postoperative Major Adverse Cardiac Events in Patients With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

OBJECTIVES

Patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) have a high risk of cardiovascular disease that could potentially increase postoperative major adverse cardiac events (MACE). We determined the rate of MACE in patients with SLE undergoing noncardiac surgery using national claims-based data.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study using Optum Clinformatics Data Mart from 2007 to 2020. We identified a cohort of patients with SLE who had undergone noncardiac surgeries using Current Procedural Terminology codes. We also identified two control cohorts without SLE, one with diabetes mellitus (DM) and one without DM. After matching cases and controls by age and sex, the odds of MACE were estimated using multivariable logistic regression models also including race and the Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) scores. We also examined use of preoperative cardiac testing.

RESULTS

We identified 4750 patients with SLE, 496,381 DM controls, and 1,484,986 non-DM controls. After matching, the odds ratio (OR) for MACE in patients with SLE versus non-DM controls was 1.51 (95% confidence interval 1.09-2.08), which decreased after adjustment for RCRI score (OR: 0.97, 95% confidence interval 0.7-1.36). No significant differences were observed in the incidence of MACE between patients with SLE and DM controls (0.82 vs 1.04, P = 0.16). High-risk patients with SLE (RCRI score of ≥3) were less likely to receive preoperative cardiac testing than non-DM controls (42.7% vs 35.1%, P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Patients with SLE have an increased risk of postoperative MACE, which is driven by increased RCRI scores. Concerningly, high-risk patients received less cardiac testing 2 months before surgery than non-DM controls.

The utility of erythrocyte sedimentation rate, C-reactive protein, and procalcitonin in detecting infections in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: A systematic review

OBJECTIVES

We conducted a systematic review with metanalysis to investigate the utility of erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), C-reactive protein (CRP), and procalcitonin (PCT) in diagnosing infections in hospitalized patients with SLE.

METHODS

We searched Medline, Embase, Web of Science, ClinicalTrials.gov, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) with a search strategy developed by a medical librarian. We included retrospective, cross-sectional, case-control, and prospective studies in our analysis. We used the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Studies (QUADAS-2) to assess for bias and applicability. We obtained mean differences, sensitivities, and specificities in our analysis.

RESULTS

We included 26 studies in our analysis. Most studies had an unclear or high risk of bias and our results were widely heterogenous. For the diagnosis of infections, the CRP had a pooled sensitivity of 0.75 (95%CI 0.57-0.94) and specificity of 0.72 (0.59-0.85), PCT had a pooled sensitivity of 0.68 (95% CI 0.0.59-0.77) and specificity of 0.75 (0.59-0.90), and for ESR pooled estimates were not calculated but sensitivity ranged from 50 to 69.8 and specificity from 38.5 to 55.6. Modifying cut-offs improved sensitivities and specificities. The ESR, CRP, and PCT mean differences were all greater in infection groups versus non-infection (10.1, 95% CI 3.2-17.0; 46.8, 95% CI 36.5-57.0; 0.53, 95% CI 0.26-0.80; respectively).

DISCUSSION

Poor sensitivities and specificities were observed for the evaluated biomarkers with substantial heterogeneity in the cut-offs used to determine infection. Although mean biomarker values were increased in the infection group compared with the non-infection, our findings do not support the widespread use of ESR, CRP, or PCT in diagnosing infection in hospitalized patients with SLE due to increased heterogeneity and risk of bias. Further investigation is needed.

Development of a patient-centered core domain set for prospective observational longitudinal outcome studies in rheumatoid arthritis: an OMERACT initiative

OBJECTIVES

To identify patient-centered core domains for prospective longitudinal observational studies (LOS) in rheumatoid arthritis.

METHODS

Our working group held a virtual meeting in November 2020 to review data from a literature review and patient qualitative interviews, and to discuss strategies to move forward on domain identification and selection using the OMERACT 2.1 domain selection process.

RESULTS

Important candidate domains and subdomains were identified including in the areas of life impact. Consensus was reached on moving forward with a Delphi process.

CONCLUSIONS

The meeting provided future directions to identify and select a core set of domains for use in LOS.

Cervical Cancer Screening in Women with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

OBJECTIVE

To determine rates of cervical cancer screening and associated abnormal results in women with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).

METHODS

We identified women with an initial diagnosis of SLE in the MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters Database from 2001 to 2014. Cervical cancer screening rates and associated diagnostic claims within 3 years of initial claim were determined. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to evaluate the association of screening with lupus treatment. A matched logistic regression analysis was conducted to compare screening rates to those in age-matched women without connective tissue disease.

RESULTS

We included 4,316 women with SLE. Screening rates were higher in SLE women than in general controls (73.4% vs. 58.5%, p < 0.001). Factors associated with decreased screening included: recent time (odds ratio [OR] 0.70, 95% CI 0.55 - 0.89) (2012-2014 compared to 2001-2005); age ≥61 years (OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.18 - 0.39); comorbidity score of ≥2 (OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.6 - 0.83); corticosteroid use (OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.61 - 0.97); and use of immunosuppressants (OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.94). Abnormal pathology claims were more common in women with SLE than in general controls (12.3% vs. 9.8%, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Though higher than the general cohort, over 25% of the patients with SLE were not screened and screening rates seem to be decreasing over time. Patients with SLE are at higher risk of abnormal cervical screening test results than controls, supporting the need for regular screening.

FRI0516 FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH DECREASED CERVICAL CANCER SCREENING IN WOMEN WITH SYSTEMIC LUPUS ERYTHEMATOSUS

Background:

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a chronic autoimmune disease that carries an increased risk for both viral illnesses and malignancies, including a greater risk for both human papilloma virus (HPV) infection and cervical cancer. Due to this increased risk, the American Society of Colposcopy and Cervical Pathology guidelines for SLE patients recommend more frequent cervical cancer screening. Few studies have examined patient characteristics associated with decreased cervical cancer screening in patients with autoimmune disease, specifically SLE.

Objectives:

To estimate cervical cancer screening rates in women with recently diagnosed SLE, and to identify characteristics associated with decreased screening.

Methods:

We identified women with an initial diagnosis of SLE in the United States MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounter (CCAE, age 18-64) administrative claims database. We included patients with at least three claims with a lupus diagnosis (first and last at least >90 days apart), no lupus claims within the year before initial claim, and who had been on antimalarial drugs for at least 90 days. We excluded all patients with a previous claim for hysterectomy.

Cervical cancer screening was ascertained using diagnosis and procedure codes within 1 year before and 2 years after the first SLE claim. Our covariates included the year of first SLE claim (2001-2014), age at first SLE claim, comorbidity score, insurance type, geographical region, and prescriptions for multiple types of corticosteroids. Control patients included age-matched females without autoimmune disease. Univariate comparison and multivariate logistic regression models were built to evaluate determinants of screening.

Results:

We included 4,316 SLE patients (median age 45) and 86,544 control patients. The screening rate in SLE patients was 73.4% vs 58.5% in the controls (P < 0.001). The screening rate was 71% in 2001, increased to 75% in 2004, then decreased to 70% in 2014 (trend P =0.005). In the multivariate model the following factors were associated with decreased cervical cancer screening: year of first SLE claim 2012-2014 versus 2001-2005 (odds ratio (OR) 0.67, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.53 – 0.84, P < 0.001); older age 61-64 versus 21-30 (OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.19 – 0.39, P < 0.001); comorbidity score of ≥2 versus <2 (OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.6 – 0.83, P < 0.001); and use of corticosteroids for ≥ 90 days versus <90 days (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.59 – 0.9, P = 0.003). Insurance type and geographical region were not associated with cervical cancer screening.

Conclusion:

About three quarters of women with SLE underwent cervical cancer screening within 3 years of their first lupus claim, at higher rates than controls. However, there was a concerning downward trend in screening rates in recent years. In addition, higher risk populations for cervical cancer (older age, increased comorbidities, and longer duration of corticosteroids) had lower screening rates. These findings highlight the need to enhance education for healthcare providers to improve utilization of screening in women with SLE at high risk of cervical cancer.

Disclosure of Interests:

Sebastian Bruera: None declared, Richard Zogala: None declared, Xiudong Lei: None declared, Xerxes Pundole: None declared, Hui Zhao: None declared, Sharon Giordano: None declared, Jessica Hwang Grant/research support from: MERCK grant funding unrelated to SLE., Maria Suarez-Almazor: None declared

Off-Label Medication Use in the Inpatient Palliative Care Unit

CONTEXT

Although off-label medications are frequently prescribed in palliative care, there are no published studies examining their use in the U.S.

OBJECTIVES

We examined the frequency of off-label medication use in cancer patients admitted to an acute palliative care unit (APCU).

METHODS

This prospective observational study enrolled consecutive patients with advanced cancer admitted to the APCU of a tertiary care cancer center. We collected data on all prescription events, including indications for use, from admission to discharge. Off-label use was checked against the U.S. Food and Drug Administration-approved indications.

RESULTS

Among the 201 patients, median survival was 10 days (95% CI 7-13), and 85 (42%) patients died in the APCU. We documented 6276 prescription events, and 2199 (35%) were off-label. Among off-label prescriptions, central nervous system agents (n = 1606, 73%), hormones and synthetic substitutes (n = 302, 14%), and autonomic drugs (n = 183, 8%) were most commonly prescribed. Haloperidol (n = 720, 33%), chlorpromazine (n = 292, 13%), dexamethasone (n = 280, 13%), glycopyrrolate (n = 175, 8%), hydromorphone (n = 161, 7%), and morphine (n = 156, 7%) were most frequently prescribed off-label. The most common indications for off-label prescribing were delirium (n = 783, 36%) and dyspnea (n = 449, 20%). Seventy percent of all off-label prescription events had strong evidence supporting use, and 19% of prescription events had moderate or weak evidence for use.

CONCLUSION

One-third of prescription events in the APCU were off-label, with majority of off-label use having a strong level of supporting evidence. Our findings highlight the need for more research in key areas such as delirium and dyspnea management.

Use of medication reminders in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) often have difficulties adhering to their medical treatment plans. We determined the characteristics of patients with RA who used reminders and the association between reminders and adherence. A total of 201 patients with RA were asked the frequency of reminders use such as pill containers, calendars, or diaries. Patients completed self-reported adherence questionnaires, and their disease activity and functional ability were measured. Sixty-eight patients (34 %) reported using a reminder. Factors associated with reminder use were older age (yes-mean age 54 vs no-mean age 49, p = 0.004), race (Whites-54 % vs Blacks-30 % vs Hispanics-26 %, p = 0.003), and sex (males-50 % vs females 28 %, p = 0.005). Working patients were less likely to use reminders (employed-21 % vs unemployed-43 %, p = 0.006). Use of calendars was associated with adherence while away from home (ρ = 0.16, p = 0.03), when busy (ρ = 0.16, p = 0.03), and use of any reminder was associated with adherence when running out of pills (ρ = 0.15, p = 0.04). The use of calendar reminders was associated with fewer tender joints (ρ = -0.17, p = 0.02). Few patients with RA used reminders, and whites, males and patients of increasing age were most likely to use reminders. Our findings show that reminders can assist patients with RA in taking medications, particularly when they are most prone to forgetting, such as when they are away from home or busy. Providers should encourage using reminders as a low-cost aid to enhance adherence.

Referral Criteria for Outpatient Palliative Cancer Care: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Outpatient palliative care clinics facilitate early referral and are associated with improved outcomes in cancer patients. However, appropriate candidates for outpatient palliative care referral and optimal timing remain unclear. We conducted a systematic review of the literature to identify criteria that are considered when an outpatient palliative cancer care referral is initiated.

METHODS

We searched Ovid MEDLINE (1948-2013 citations) and Ovid Embase (1947-2015 citations) for articles related to outpatient palliative cancer care. Two researchers independently reviewed each citation for inclusion and extracted the referral criteria. The interrater agreement was high (κ = 0.96).

RESULTS

Of the 186 publications in our initial search, 21 were included in the final sample. We identified 20 unique referral criteria. Among these, 6 were recurrent themes, which included physical symptoms (n = 13 [62%]), cancer trajectory (n = 13 [62%]), prognosis (n = 7 [33%]), performance status (n = 7 [33%]), psychosocial distress (n = 6 [29%]), and end-of-life care planning (n = 5 [24%]). We found significant variations among the articles regarding the definition of advanced cancer and the assessment tools for symptom/distress screening. The Edmonton Symptom Assessment Scale (n = 7 [33%]) and the distress thermometer (n = 2 [10%]) were used most often. Furthermore, there was a lack of consensus in the cutoffs in symptom assessment tools and timing for outpatient palliative care referral.

CONCLUSION

This systematic review identified 20 criteria including 6 recurrent themes for outpatient cancer palliative care referral. It highlights the significant heterogeneity regarding the timing and process for referral and the need for further research to develop standardized referral criteria.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

Outpatient palliative care clinics improve patient outcomes; however, it remains unclear who is appropriate for referral and what is the optimal timing. A better understanding of the referral criteria would help (a) referring clinicians to identify appropriate patients for palliative care interventions, (b) administrators to assess their programs with set benchmarks for quality improvement, (c) researchers to standardize inclusion criteria, and (d) policymakers to develop clinical care pathways and allocate appropriate resources. This systematic review identified 20 criteria including 6 recurrent themes for outpatient palliative cancer care referral. It represents the first step toward developing standardized referral criteria.

Use of Palliative Care Services in a Tertiary Cancer Center

This study analyzed palliative/supportive care use in a single cancer center over 8 years. Billing data showed the inpatient consultations as a percentage of hospital admissions and the ratio of inpatient consultations to hospital beds almost doubled. In the outpatient setting, data revealed earlier access to outpatient referrals to palliative care service (from 4.8 months to 7.9 months; p = .001) during the study period.

Background.

Despite increasing prevalence of palliative care (PC) services in cancer centers, most referrals to the service occur exceedingly late in the illness trajectory. Over the years, we have made several attempts to promote earlier patient access to our PC program, such as changing the name of our service from PC to supportive care (SC). This study was conducted to determine the use of PC/SC service over the past 8 years.

Methods.

We reviewed billing data for all PC/SC encounters. We examined five metrics for use: inpatient consultations as a percentage of hospital admissions, ratio of inpatient consultations to average number of operational beds, time from hospital registration to outpatient consultation, time from advanced cancer diagnosis to consultation, and time from first outpatient consultation to death/last follow-up.

Results.

Over the years, we found a consistent increase in patient referrals to the PC/SC program. In the inpatient setting, we found approximate doubling of the inpatient consultations as a percentage of hospital admissions and the ratio of inpatient consultations to hospital beds (from 10% to 19% and from 2.4 to 4.9, respectively; p < .001). In the outpatient setting, we observed variations in referral pattern between oncology services, but, overall, the time from consultation to death/last follow-up increased from 4.8 months to 7.9 months (p = .001), which was accompanied by a significant decrease in the interval to consultation from hospital registration and advanced cancer diagnosis (p < .001).

Conclusion.

We have observed a consistent annual increase in new patient referrals as well as earlier access for outpatient referrals to our SC service, supporting increased use of palliative care at our cancer center.

Implications for Practice:

In response to accumulating evidence on the benefits of palliative care (PC) referral to oncology patients, efforts are being made to increase PC use. This study, conducted at MD Anderson Cancer Center, demonstrates consistent annual growth in PC referrals, which was accompanied by a significant increase in the outpatient referral of patients with nonadvanced cancer and earlier referral of those with advanced cancer. However, significant variations in the referral patterns between oncology services were observed. These results have implications for other cancer centers looking to enhance use of PC services by having a business model that allows for appropriate space and staff expansion.

Frequency and factors associated with unexpected death in an acute palliative care unit: expect the unexpected

CONTEXT

Few studies have examined the frequency of unexpected death and its associated factors in a palliative care setting.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the frequency of unexpected death in two acute palliative care units (APCUs); to compare the frequency of signs of impending death between expected and unexpected deaths; and to determine the predictors associated with unexpected death.

METHODS

In this prospective, longitudinal, observational study, consecutive patients admitted to two APCUs were enrolled and physical signs of impending death were documented twice daily until discharge or death. Physicians were asked to complete a survey within 24 hours of APCU death. The death was considered unexpected if the physician answered "yes" to the question "Were you surprised by the timing of the death?"

RESULTS

In total, 193 of 203 after-death assessments (95%) were collected for analysis. Nineteen of 193 patients died unexpectedly (10%). Signs of impending death, including non-reactive pupils, inability to close eyelids, decreased response to verbal stimuli, drooping of nasolabial folds, peripheral cyanosis, pulselessness of the radial artery, and respiration with mandibular movement, were documented more frequently in expected deaths than unexpected deaths (P < 0.05). Longer disease duration was associated with unexpected death (33 months vs. 12 months, P = 0.009).

CONCLUSION

Unexpected death occurred in an unexpectedly high proportion of patients in the APCU setting and was associated with fewer signs of impending death. Our findings highlight the need for palliative care teams to be prepared for the unexpected.

Timing of access to outpatient palliative care services: What’s in a name?

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Background: We have previously shown the name “palliative” to be a barrier to early palliative care (PC) referral. Further, following service name change to supportive care (SC) in late 2007, we immediately observed an increased survival time of about 1.5 months from PC consultation suggesting earlier referral following the name change. This study was conducted to determine the timing of patient access to outpatient PC services over several years period after the name change. Methods: Records of consecutive outpatient referrals in fiscal years (FY) 2007 (pre-name change), 2008 (transition period), 2009-2013 (post-name change) were reviewed. Timing of PC access was determined by 3 time intervals: (a) survival from PC consultation; (b) advanced cancer diagnosis to PC (c) hospital registration to PC; Kruskal-Wallis, Kaplan Meir and Cox regression models were used. Results: 6,624 patients had their first outpatient PC consultation during FY 2007 to 2013. Each year we observed a consistent increase in new patient referrals, as well as a longer median survival time from PC consultation (logrank <0.0001). The table below shows median survival and hazard ratio (HR) for FYs 2008-2013 as compared to FY 2007. In FY 2013 there were 63% greater number of outpatient referrals as compared to FY 2007 (p <0.0001), longer median survival (months) (7.9 vs 4.8; p <0.001), and shorter median interval (months) from advanced cancer diagnosis (5.9 vs 7.8; p< 0.002) and from hospital registration (6.6 vs 14.8; p< 0.0001) to PC consultation. Conclusions: Following the name change of service from PC to SC, there has been consistent annual increase in new patient referrals as well as earlier access to outpatient PC services. The outpatient setting facilitates earlier patient access to SC/PC services and should be established in more centers. [Table: see text]

Variations in vital signs in the last days of life in patients with advanced cancer

CONTEXT

Few studies have examined variation in vital signs in the last days of life.

OBJECTIVES

We determined the variation of vital signs in the final two weeks of life in patients with advanced cancer and examined their association with impending death in three days.

METHODS

In this prospective, longitudinal, observational study, we enrolled consecutive patients admitted to two acute palliative care units and documented their vital signs (heart rate, blood pressure, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, and temperature) twice a day serially from admission to death or discharge.

RESULTS

Of 357 patients, 203 (57%) died in hospital. Systolic blood pressure (P < 0.001), diastolic blood pressure (P < 0.001), and oxygen saturation (P < 0.001) decreased significantly in the final three days of life, and temperature increased slightly (P < 0.04). Heart rate (P = 0.22) and respiratory rate (P = 0.24) remained similar in the last three days. Impending death in three days was significantly associated with increased heart rate (odds ratio [OR] = 2; P = 0.01), decreased systolic blood pressure (OR = 2.5; P = 0.004), decreased diastolic blood pressure (OR = 2.3; P = 0.002), and decreased oxygen saturation (OR = 3.7; P = 0.003) from baseline readings on admission. These changes had high specificity (≥ 80%), low sensitivity (≤ 35%), and modest positive likelihood ratios (≤ 5) for impending death within three days. A large proportion of patients had normal vital signs in the last days of life.

CONCLUSION

Blood pressure and oxygen saturation decreased in the last days of life. Clinicians and families cannot rely on vital sign changes alone to rule in or rule out impending death. Our findings do not support routine vital signs monitoring of patients who are imminently dying.