Evaluation of different models of general practitioners working in or alongside emergency departments: a mixed-methods realist evaluation

Background

Emergency healthcare services are under intense pressure to meet increasing patient demands. Many patients presenting to emergency departments could be managed by general practitioners in general practitioner-emergency department service models.

Objectives

To evaluate the effectiveness, safety, patient experience and system implications of the different general practitioner-emergency department models.

Design

Mixed-methods realist evaluation.

Methods

Phase 1 (2017-8), to understand current practice: rapid realist literature review, national survey and follow-up key informant interviews, national stakeholder event and safety data analysis. Phase 2 (2018-21), to collect and analyse qualitative (observations, interviews) and quantitative data (time series analysis); cost-consequences analysis of routine data; and case site data for 'marker condition' analysis from a purposive sample of 13 case sites in England and Wales. Phase 3 (2021-2), to conduct mixed-methods analysis for programme theory and toolkit development.

Results

General practitioners commonly work in emergency departments, but delivery models vary widely in terms of the scope of the general practitioner role and the scale of the general practitioner service. We developed a taxonomy to describe general practitioner-emergency department service models (Integrated with the emergency department service, Parallel within the emergency department, Outside the emergency department on the hospital site) and present a programme theory as principal output of the study to describe how these service models were observed to operate. Routine data were of variable quality, limiting our analysis. Time series analysis demonstrated trends across intervention sites for: increased time spent in the emergency department; increased emergency department attendances and reattendances; and mixed results for hospital admissions. Evidence on patient experience was limited but broadly supportive; we identified department-level processes to optimise the safety of general practitioner-emergency department models.

Limitations

The quality, heterogeneity and extent of routine emergency department data collection during the study period limited the conclusions. Recruitment was limited by criteria for case sites (time series requirements) and individual patients (with 'marker conditions'). Pandemic and other pressures limited data collection for marker condition analysis. Data collected and analysed were pre pandemic; new approaches such as 'telephone first' and their relevance to our findings remains unexplored.

Conclusion

Findings suggest that general practitioner-emergency department service models do not meet the aim of reducing the overall emergency department waiting times and improving patient flow with limited evidence of cost savings. Qualitative data indicated that general practitioners were often valued as members of the wider emergency department team. We have developed a toolkit, based on our findings, to provide guidance for implementing and delivering general practitioner-emergency department services.

Future work

The emergency care data set has since been introduced across England to help standardise data collection to facilitate further research. We would advocate the systematic capture of patient experience measures and patient-reported outcome measures as part of routine care. More could be done to support the development of the general practitioner in emergency department role, including a core set of competencies and governance structure, to reflect the different general practitioner-emergency department models and to evaluate the effectiveness and cost effectiveness to guide future policy.

Study registration

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42017069741.

Funding

This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (NIHR award ref: 15/145/04) and is published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 12, No. 10. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Novel high throughput screen reports that benzo(a)pyrene overrides mouse trophoblast stem cell multipotency, inducing SAPK activity, HAND1 and differentiated trophoblast giant cells

INTRODUCTION

Cultured mouse trophoblast stem cells (mTSC) maintain proliferation/normal stemness (NS) under FGF4, which when removed, causes normal differentiation (ND). Hypoxic, or hyperosmotic stress forces trophoblast giant cells (TGC) differentiate. Hypoxic, hyperosmotic, and genotoxic benzo(a)pyrene (BaP), which is found in tobacco smoke, force down-regulation of inhibitor of differentiation (Id)2, enabling TGC differentiation. Hypoxic and hyperosmotic stress induce TGC by SAPK-dependent HAND1 increase. Here we test whether BaP forces mTSC-to-TGC while inducing SAPK and HAND1.

METHODS

Hand1 and SAPK activity were assayed by immunoblot, mTSC-to-TGC growth and differentiation were assayed at Tfinal after 72hr exposure of BaP, NS, ND, Retinoic acid (RA), or sorbitol. Nuclear-stained cells were micrographed automatically by a live imager, and assayed by ImageJ/FIJI, Biotek Gen 5, AIVIA proprietary artificial intelligence (AI) software or open source, CellPose artificial intelligence/AI software.

RESULTS

BaP (0.05-1μM) activated SAPK and HAND1 without diminishing growth. TSC-to-TGC differentiation was assayed with increasingly accuracy for 2-4 N cycling nuclei and >4 N differentiating TGC nuclei, using ImageJ/FIJI, Gen 5, AIVIA, or CellPose AI software. The AIVIA and Cellpose AI software matches human accuracy. The lowest BaP effects on SAPK activation/HAND1 increase are >10-fold more sensitive than similar effects for mESC. RA induces 44-47% 1st lineage TGC differentiation, but the same RA dose induces only 1% 1st lineage mESC differentiation.

DISCUSSION

First, these pilot data suggest that mTSC can be used in high throughput screens (HTS) to predict toxicant exposures that force TGC differentiation. Second, mTSC differentiated more cells than mESC for similar stress exposures, Third, open source AI can replace human micrograph quantitation and enable a miscarriage-predicting HTS.

Social and economic costs of gambling problems and related harm among UK military veterans

INTRODUCTION

Military veterans are at heightened risk of problem gambling. Little is known about the costs of problem gambling and related harm among United Kingdom (UK) Armed Forces (AF) veterans. We investigated the social and economic costs of gambling among a large sample of veterans through differences in healthcare and social service resource use compared with age-matched and gender-matched non-veterans from the UK AF Veterans' Health and Gambling Study.

METHODS

An online survey measured sociodemographic characteristics, gambling experience and problem severity, mental health and healthcare resource utilisation. Healthcare provider, personal social service and societal costs were estimated as total adjusted mean costs and utility, with cost-consequence analysis of a single timepoint.

RESULTS

Veterans in our sample had higher healthcare, social service and societal costs and lower utility. Veterans had greater contacts with the criminal justice system, received more social service benefits, had more lost work hours and greater accrued debt. A cost difference of £590 (95% CI -£1016 to -£163) was evident between veterans with scores indicating problem gambling and those reporting no problems. Costs varied by problem gambling status.

CONCLUSIONS

Our sample of UK AF veterans has higher healthcare, social service and societal costs than non-veterans. Veterans experiencing problem gambling are more costly but have no reduction in quality of life.

Ten second triage: A novel and pragmatic approach to major incident triage

Triage is a key principle in the effective management of major incidents and has traditionally been performed using an assessment of a casualty's physiology. However, it has become apparent from recent experiences of major incidents that physiological triage may practically not be possible, especially in the early stages of an incident. A key factor is the speed with which it is possible to perform triage, and subsequently, the speed at which key life-saving interventions (e.g., management of external haemorrhage and airway opening manoeuvres) are able to be performed simultaneously as part of the triage process. Addressing this issue was a priority for the review of major incident triage undertaken by NHS England and culminated in the development of the Ten Second Triage (TST) tool.

Infection after total joint replacement of the hip and knee: research programme including the INFORM RCT

Background

People with severe osteoarthritis, other joint conditions or injury may have joint replacement to reduce pain and disability. In the UK in 2019, over 200,000 hip and knee replacements were performed. About 1 in 100 replacements becomes infected, and most people with infected replacements require further surgery.

Objectives

To investigate why some patients are predisposed to joint infections and how this affects patients and the NHS, and to evaluate treatments.

Design

Systematic reviews, joint registry analyses, qualitative interviews, a randomised controlled trial, health economic analyses and a discrete choice questionnaire.

Setting

Our studies are relevant to the NHS, to the Swedish health system and internationally.

Participants

People with prosthetic joint infection after hip or knee replacement and surgeons.

Interventions

Revision of hip prosthetic joint infection with a single- or two-stage procedure.

Main outcome measures

Long-term patient-reported outcomes and reinfection. Cost-effectiveness of revision strategies over 18 months from two perspectives: health-care provider and Personal Social Services, and societal.

Data sources

National Joint Registry; literature databases; published cohort studies; interviews with 67 patients and 35 surgeons; a patient discrete choice questionnaire; and the INFORM (INFection ORthopaedic Management) randomised trial.

Review methods

Systematic reviews of studies reporting risk factors, diagnosis, treatment outcomes and cost comparisons. Individual patient data meta-analysis.

Results

In registry analyses, about 0.62% and 0.75% of patients with hip and knee replacement, respectively, had joint infection requiring surgery. Rates were four times greater after aseptic revision. The costs of inpatient and day-case admissions in people with hip prosthetic joint infection were about five times higher than those in people with no infection, an additional cost of > £30,000. People described devastating effects of hip and knee prosthetic joint infection and treatment. In the treatment of hip prosthetic joint infection, a two-stage procedure with or without a cement spacer had a greater negative impact on patient well-being than a single- or two-stage procedure with a custom-made articulating spacer. Surgeons described the significant emotional impact of hip and knee prosthetic joint infection and the importance of a supportive multidisciplinary team. In systematic reviews and registry analyses, the risk factors for hip and knee prosthetic joint infection included male sex, diagnoses other than osteoarthritis, high body mass index, poor physical status, diabetes, dementia and liver disease. Evidence linking health-care setting and surgeon experience with prosthetic joint infection was inconsistent. Uncemented fixation, posterior approach and ceramic bearings were associated with lower infection risk after hip replacement. In our systematic review, synovial fluid alpha-defensin and leucocyte esterase showed high diagnostic accuracy for prosthetic joint infection. Systematic reviews and individual patient data meta-analysis showed similar reinfection outcomes in patients with hip or knee prosthetic joint infection treated with single- and two-stage revision. In registry analysis, there was a higher rate of early rerevision after single-stage revision for hip prosthetic joint infection, but, overall, 40% fewer operations are required as part of a single-stage procedure than as part of a two-stage procedure. The treatment of hip or knee prosthetic joint infection with early debridement and implant retention may be effective in > 60% of cases. In the INFORM randomised controlled trial, 140 patients with hip prosthetic joint infection were randomised to single- or two-stage revision. Eighteen months after randomisation, pain, function and stiffness were similar between the randomised groups (p = 0.98), and there were no differences in reinfection rates. Patient outcomes improved earlier in the single-stage than in the two-stage group. Participants randomised to a single-stage procedure had lower costs (mean difference –£10,055, 95% confidence interval –£19,568 to –£542) and higher quality-adjusted life-years (mean difference 0.06, 95% confidence interval –0.07 to 0.18) than those randomised to a two-stage procedure. Single-stage was the more cost-effective option, with an incremental net monetary benefit at a threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year of £11,167 (95% confidence interval £638 to £21,696). In a discrete choice questionnaire completed by 57 patients 18 months after surgery to treat hip prosthetic joint infection, the most valued characteristics in decisions about revision were the ability to engage in valued activities and a quick return to normal activity.

Limitations

Some research was specific to people with hip prosthetic joint infection. Study populations in meta-analyses and registry analyses may have been selected for joint replacement and specific treatments. The INFORM trial was not powered to study reinfection and was limited to 18 months’ follow-up. The qualitative study subgroups were small.

Conclusions

We identified risk factors, diagnostic biomarkers, effective treatments and patient preferences for the treatment of hip and knee prosthetic joint infection. The risk factors include male sex, diagnoses other than osteoarthritis, specific comorbidities and surgical factors. Synovial fluid alpha-defensin and leucocyte esterase showed high diagnostic accuracy. Infection is devastating for patients and surgeons, both of whom describe the need for support during treatment. Debridement and implant retention is effective, particularly if performed early. For infected hip replacements, single- and two-stage revision appear equally efficacious, but single-stage has better early results, is cost-effective at 18-month follow-up and is increasingly used. Patients prefer treatments that allow full functional return within 3–9 months.

Future work

For people with infection, develop information, counselling, peer support and care pathways. Develop supportive care and information for patients and health-care professionals to enable the early recognition of infections. Compare alternative and new treatment strategies in hip and knee prosthetic joint infection. Assess diagnostic methods and establish NHS diagnostic criteria.

Study registration

The INFORM randomised controlled trial is registered as ISRCTN10956306. All systematic reviews were registered in PROSPERO (as CRD42017069526, CRD42015023485, CRD42018106503, CRD42018114592, CRD42015023704, CRD42017057513, CRD42015016559, CRD42015017327 and CRD42015016664).

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Programme Grants for Applied Research programme and will be published in full in Programme Grants for Applied Research; Vol. 10, No. 10. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Early exercise in blunt chest wall trauma: protocol for a mixed-methods, multicentre, parallel randomised controlled trial (ELECT2 trial)

INTRODUCTION

Chronic pain and disability are now well-recognised long-term complications of blunt chest wall trauma. Limited research exists regarding therapeutic interventions that can be used to address these complications. A recent feasibility study was completed testing the methods of a definitive trial. This protocol describes the proposed definitive trial, the aim of which is to investigate the impact of an early exercise programme on chronic pain and disability in patients with blunt chest wall trauma.

METHODS/ANALYSIS

This mixed-methods, multicentre, parallel randomised controlled trial will run in four hospitals in Wales and one in England over 12-month recruitment period. Patients will be randomised to either the control group (routine physiotherapy input) or the intervention group (routine physiotherapy input plus a simple exercise programme completed individually by the patient). Baseline measurements including completion of two surveys (Brief Pain Inventory and EuroQol 5-dimensions, 5-Levels) will be obtained on initial assessment. These measures and a client services receipt inventory will be repeated at 3-month postinjury. Analysis of outcomes will focus on rate and severity of chronic pain and disability, cost-effectiveness and acceptability of the programme by patients and clinicians. Qualitative feedback regarding acceptability will be obtained through patient and clinician focus groups.

ETHICS/DISSEMINATION

London Riverside Research Ethics Committee (Reference number: 21/LO/0782) and the Health Research Authority granted approval for the trial in December 2021. Patient recruitment will commence in February 2022. Planned dissemination is through publication in a peer-reviewed Emergency Medicine Journal, presentation at appropriate conferences and to stakeholders at professional meetings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN65829737; Pre-results.

The STAR care pathway for patients with pain at 3 months after total knee replacement: a multicentre, pragmatic, randomised, controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Approximately 20% of people experience chronic pain after total knee replacement, but effective treatments are not available. We aimed to evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a new care pathway for chronic pain after total knee replacement.

METHODS

We did an unmasked, parallel group, pragmatic, superiority, randomised, controlled trial at eight UK National Health Service (NHS) hospitals. People with chronic pain at 3 months after total knee replacement surgery were randomly assigned (2:1) to the Support and Treatment After Replacement (STAR) care pathway plus usual care, or to usual care alone. The STAR intervention aimed to identify underlying causes of chronic pain and enable onward referrals for targeted treatment through a 3-month post-surgery assessment with an extended scope practitioner and telephone follow-up over 12 months. Co-primary outcomes were self-reported pain severity and pain interference in the replaced knee, assessed with the Brief Pain Inventory (BPI) pain severity and interference scales at 12 months (scored 0-10, best to worst) and analysed on an as-randomised basis. Resource use, collected from electronic hospital records and participants, was valued with UK reference costs. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were calculated from EQ-5D-5L responses. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN92545361.

FINDINGS

Between Sept 6, 2016, and May 31, 2019, 363 participants were randomly assigned to receive the intervention plus usual care (n=242) or to receive usual care alone (n=121). Participants had a median age of 67 years (IQR 61 to 73), 217 (60%) of 363 were female, and 335 (92%) were White. 313 (86%) patients provided follow-up data at 12 months after randomisation (213 assigned to the intervention plus usual care and 100 assigned to usual care alone). At 12 months, the mean between-group difference in the BPI severity score was -0·65 (95% CI -1·17 to -0·13; p=0·014) and the mean between-group difference in the BPI interference score was -0·68 (-1·29 to -0·08; p=0·026), both favouring the intervention. From an NHS and personal social services perspective, the intervention was cost-effective (greater improvement with lower cost), with an incremental net monetary benefit of £1256 (95% CI 164 to 2348) at £20 000 per QALY threshold. One adverse reaction of participant distress was reported in the intervention group.

INTERPRETATION

STAR is a clinically effective and cost-effective intervention to improve pain outcomes over 1 year for people with chronic pain at 3 months after total knee replacement surgery.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research.

Using a 3D handheld scanner to capture trochlear groove shape: proof of concept study

INTRODUCTION

Trochleoplasty is a surgical procedure used to treat patellar instability by modifying the trochlear groove. Analysis of the groove with a handheld scanner would enable accurate real-time planning and facilitate tailormade correction. We aimed to measure trochlear depth, sulcus angle, trochlear facet ratio, trochlear angle and lateral trochlear inclination angle and to establish inter- and intra-rater reliability for knee models to determine reliability and repeatability.

METHODS

The trochlear grooves of three knee models were scanned by two investigators. Three-dimensional reference models were created and surface-matched. Custom software was used to determine the desired parameters. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to determine test-retest reliability and the parameter results for each model that showed best reproducibility.

RESULTS

There was good interobserver reliability (trochlear depth, 1.0mm; sulcus angle, 2.7°; trochlear angle, 4.0°; lateral trochlear inclination angle, 4.0°), except in the trochlear facet ratio (32.0%) of one knee model. With outliers removed, the ICC was moderate to excellent in 73.34% of measurements, with trochlear depth showing the best reproducibility.

DISCUSSION

This feasibility study showed a handheld scanner in conjunction with supporting software can measure trochlear parameters with good to excellent inter- and intra-observer reliability.

199 Use of A 3D Hand-Held Scanner to Capture Trochlear Groove Shape, A Proof-of-Concept Study

Introduction

Trochleoplasty is a surgical procedure used to treat patellar instability through modifying the trochlear groove. Analysis of the groove with a hand-held scanner would enable accurate real time planning and facilitate tailor made correction. We aimed to measure trochlear depth, sulcus angle, trochlear facet ratio, trochlear angle and lateral trochlear inclination angle and establish inter- and intra-rater reliability for each knee model.

Method

The trochlear groove of the knee models was scanned by two investigators and 3D reference models created. These were surface matched and custom software along with Excel was utilised to determine the desired parameters. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was used for test-retest reliability and to determine which parameter results, for each model, showed the best reproducibility.

Results

There was good inter-observer reliability - trochlear depth (1.0 mm), sulcus angle (2.7°), trochlear angle (4.0°) and lateral trochlear inclination angle (4.0°), except in the trochlear facet ratio (32.0%) of one knee model. With outliers removed ICC was good-excellent in (46.7%) of measurements, with trochlear depth showing the best reproducibility.

Conclusions

This feasibility study showed that the hand-held scanner in conjunction with supporting software can measure trochlear parameters in a controlled environment and justifies extending research into its use in trochleoplasty.

Impact of solitary pulmonary nodule size on qualitative and quantitative assessment using 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose PET/CT: the SPUTNIK trial

PURPOSE

To compare qualitative and semi-quantitative PET/CT criteria, and the impact of nodule size on the diagnosis of solitary pulmonary nodules in a prospective multicentre trial.

METHODS

Patients with an SPN on CT ≥ 8 and ≤ 30 mm were recruited to the SPUTNIK trial at 16 sites accredited by the UK PET Core Lab. Qualitative assessment used a five-point ordinal PET-grade compared to the mediastinal blood pool, and a combined PET/CT grade using the CT features. Semi-quantitative measures included SUVmax of the nodule, and as an uptake ratio to the mediastinal blood pool (SURBLOOD) or liver (SURLIVER). The endpoints were diagnosis of lung cancer via biopsy/histology or completion of 2-year follow-up. Impact of nodule size was analysed by comparison between nodule size tertiles.

RESULTS

Three hundred fifty-five participants completed PET/CT and 2-year follow-up, with 59% (209/355) malignant nodules. The AUCs of the three techniques were SUVmax 0.87 (95% CI 0.83;0.91); SURBLOOD 0.87 (95% CI 0.83; 0.91, p = 0.30 versus SUVmax); and SURLIVER 0.87 (95% CI 0.83; 0.91, p = 0.09 vs. SUVmax). The AUCs for all techniques remained stable across size tertiles (p > 0.1 for difference), although the optimal diagnostic threshold varied by size. For nodules < 12 mm, an SUVmax of 1.75 or visual uptake equal to the mediastinum yielded the highest accuracy. For nodules > 16 mm, an SUVmax ≥ 3.6 or visual PET uptake greater than the mediastinum was the most accurate.

CONCLUSION

In this multicentre trial, SUVmax was the most accurate technique for the diagnosis of solitary pulmonary nodules. Diagnostic thresholds should be altered according to nodule size.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN - ISRCTN30784948. ClinicalTrials.gov - NCT02013063.

Group cognitive rehabilitation to reduce the psychological impact of multiple sclerosis on quality of life: the CRAMMS RCT

BACKGROUND

People with multiple sclerosis have problems with memory and attention. The effectiveness of cognitive rehabilitation has not been established.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were to assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a cognitive rehabilitation programme for people with multiple sclerosis.

DESIGN

This was a multicentre, randomised controlled trial in which participants were randomised in a ratio of 6 : 5 to receive cognitive rehabilitation plus usual care or usual care alone. Participants were assessed at 6 and 12 months after randomisation.

SETTING

The trial was set in hospital neurology clinics and community services.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants were people with multiple sclerosis who had cognitive problems, were aged 18-69 years, could travel to attend group sessions and gave informed consent.

INTERVENTION

The intervention was a group cognitive rehabilitation programme delivered weekly by an assistant psychologist to between four and six participants for 10 weeks.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was the Multiple Sclerosis Impact Scale - Psychological subscale at 12 months. Secondary outcomes included results from the Everyday Memory Questionnaire, the 30-Item General Health Questionnaire, the EuroQol-5 Dimensions, five-level version and a service use questionnaire from participants, and the Everyday Memory Questionnaire - relative version and the Modified Carer Strain Index from a relative or friend of the participant.

RESULTS

Of the 449 participants randomised, 245 were allocated to cognitive rehabilitation (intervention group) and 204 were allocated to usual care (control group). Of these, 214 in the intervention group and 173 in the control group were included in the primary analysis. There was no clinically important difference in the Multiple Sclerosis Impact Scale - Psychological subscale score between the two groups at the 12-month follow-up (adjusted difference in means -0.6, 95% confidence interval -1.5 to 0.3; p = 0.20). There were no important differences between the groups in relation to cognitive abilities, fatigue, employment, or carer strain at follow-up. However, there were differences, although small, between the groups in the Multiple Sclerosis Impact Scale - Psychological subscale score at 6 months (adjusted difference in means -0.9, 95% confidence interval -1.7 to -0.1; p = 0.03) and in everyday memory on the Everyday Memory Questionnaire as reported by participants at 6 (adjusted difference in means -5.3, 95% confidence interval -8.7 to -1.9) and 12 months (adjusted difference in means -4.4, 95% confidence interval -7.8 to -0.9) and by relatives at 6 (adjusted difference in means -5.4, 95% confidence interval -9.1 to -1.7) and 12 months (adjusted difference in means -5.5, 95% confidence interval -9.6 to -1.5) in favour of the cognitive rehabilitation group. There were also differences in mood on the 30-Item General Health Questionnaire at 6 (adjusted difference in means -3.4, 95% confidence interval -5.9 to -0.8) and 12 months (adjusted difference in means -3.4, 95% confidence interval -6.2 to -0.6) in favour of the cognitive rehabilitation group. A qualitative analysis indicated perceived benefits of the intervention. There was no evidence of a difference in costs (adjusted difference in means -£574.93, 95% confidence interval -£1878.93 to £729.07) or quality-adjusted life-year gain (adjusted difference in means 0.00, 95% confidence interval -0.02 to 0.02). No safety concerns were raised and no deaths were reported.

LIMITATIONS

The trial included a sample of participants who had relatively severe cognitive problems in daily life. The trial was not powered to perform subgroup analyses. Participants could not be blinded to treatment allocation.

CONCLUSIONS

This cognitive rehabilitation programme had no long-term benefits on quality of life for people with multiple sclerosis.

FUTURE WORK

Future research should evaluate the selection of those who may benefit from cognitive rehabilitation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN09697576.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 4. See the National Institute for Health Research Journals Library website for further project information.

Subgingival microbiota of dogs with healthy gingiva or early periodontal disease from different geographical locations

BACKGROUND

Periodontal disease is the most common oral disease of dogs worldwide and results from a complex interplay between plaque bacteria, the host and environmental factors. Recent studies have enhanced our understanding of the associations between the plaque microbiota and canine periodontal disease. These studies, however, were limited in their geographical reach. Thus associations between the canine oral microbiota and geographical location were investigated by determining the composition of subgingival plaque samples from 587 dogs residing in the United Kingdom (UK), United States of America (USA), China and Thailand using 454-pyrosequencing.

RESULTS

After quality filtering 6,944,757 sequence reads were obtained and clustering of these at ≥98% sequence resulted in 280 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) following exclusion of rare OTUs (present at < 0.05% in all four countries). The subgingival plaque from dog populations located in the UK, USA, China and Thailand had a similar composition although the abundance of certain taxa varied significantly among geographical locations. Exploration of the effect of clinical status and age revealed a marked similarity among the bacteria associated with increased age and those associated with gingivitis: Young dogs and those with no gingivitis were dominated by taxa from the phyla Bacteroidetes and Proteobacteria whereas older dogs and those with moderate gingivitis were dominated by members of the Firmicutes. The plaque microbiota of small breed dogs was found to significantly differ to medium and large breeds and was dominated by species belonging to the Firmicutes.

CONCLUSIONS

The bacterial associations with health, gingivitis and periodontitis were conserved across dogs from the UK, USA, China and Thailand. These bacterial signatures of periodontal health and disease have potential as biomarkers for disease detection.

Very low birth weight is associated with reduced right ventricular function detected by strain imaging in early adulthood – findings from a prospective matched cohort study

Introduction

Being born at very low birth weight (VLBW, &lt;1500g) is associated with increased rates of cardiopulmonary disorders in childhood. As survivors age, late cardiac effects, including right ventricular (RV) remodelling and occult pulmonary hypertension are emerging. Strain imaging provides prognostically important information regarding RV dysfunction in diverse cardiopulmonary conditions however, these indices have not previously been described within VLBW cohorts.

Purpose

To assess differences in right heart function using strain in young adults born at VLBW, compared to normal weight term born controls.

Methods

The New Zealand Very Low Birth Weight Study has followed all infants born in 1986 with birth weight &lt;1500g. Of 323 survivors to adulthood, 228 (71%) had echocardiograms at 26–30 years which were compared to age and sex-matched term-born, normal-weight controls (n=100). RV global longitudinal strain (GLS) was measured by speckle tracking echocardiography by an investigator blinded to group allocation. Established measures of RV function (fractional area change (FAC), tricuspid annular systolic velocity (RV S') and tricuspid regurgitation velocities) were also obtained.

Results

VLBW subjects were smaller than their peers as young adults (Table 1). Strain measurement showed reduced myocardial deformation among VLBW subjects (RV myocardial GLS: −22.4% vs −23.5%, p=0.008; RV endocardial GLS: −23.6% vs −24.9%, p=0.005; free wall myocardial GLS −25.2% vs −26.1%, p=0.039; free wall endocardial GLS −26.7% vs −27.9%, p=0.009). TR velocity was higher in VLBW: 224 cm/s v 210 cm/s (p=0.002). RV S', and FAC were not different.

Conclusion

Young adults born at VLBW have impaired myocardial strain despite preserved RV function as assessed by standard techniques. Echocardiographic strain imaging may be an important tool to detect subclinical RV dysfunction.

Graph 1

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: None

A group memory rehabilitation programme for people with traumatic brain injuries: the ReMemBrIn RCT

BACKGROUND

People with traumatic brain injuries (TBIs) commonly report memory impairments. These are persistent, debilitating and reduce quality of life, but patients do not routinely receive memory rehabilitation after discharge from hospital.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a group memory rehabilitation programme for people with TBI.

DESIGN

Multicentre, pragmatic, cluster randomised controlled trial. Qualitative and health economic evaluations were also undertaken.

SETTING

Community settings in nine sites in England.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants were aged 18-69 years, had undergone a TBI > 3 months prior to recruitment, reported memory problems, were able to travel to a site to attend group sessions, could communicate in English and gave informed consent.

RANDOMISATION AND BLINDING

Clusters of four to six participants were randomised to the memory rehabilitation arm or the usual-care arm on a 1 : 1 ratio. Randomisation was based on a computer-generated pseudo-random code using random permuted blocks of randomly varying size, stratified by study site. Participants and therapists were aware of the treatment allocation whereas outcome assessors were blinded.

INTERVENTIONS

In the memory rehabilitation arm 10 weekly sessions of a manualised memory rehabilitation programme were provided in addition to usual care. Participants were taught restitution strategies to retrain impaired memory functions and compensation strategies to enable them to cope with memory problems. The usual-care arm received usual care only.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Outcomes were assessed at 6 and 12 months after randomisation. Primary outcome: patient-completed Everyday Memory Questionnaire - patient version (EMQ-p) at 6 months' follow-up. Secondary outcomes: Rivermead Behavioural Memory Test - third edition (RBMT-3), General Health Questionnaire 30-item version, European Brain Injury Questionnaire, Everyday Memory Questionnaire - relative version and individual goal attainment. Costs (based on a UK NHS and Personal Social Services perspective) were collected using a service use questionnaire, with the EuroQol-5 Dimensions, five-level version, used to derive quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). A Markov model was developed to explore cost-effectiveness at 5 and 10 years, with a 3.5% discount applied.

RESULTS

We randomised 328 participants (memory rehabilitation, n = 171; usual care, n = 157), with 129 in the memory rehabilitation arm and 122 in the usual-care arm included in the primary analysis. We found no clinically important difference on the EMQ-p between the two arms at 6 months' follow-up (adjusted difference in mean scores -2.1, 95% confidence interval -6.7 to 2.5; p = 0.37). For secondary outcomes, differences favouring the memory rehabilitation arm were observed at 6 months' follow-up for the RBMT-3 and goal attainment, but remained only for goal attainment at 12 months' follow-up. There were no differences between arms in mood or quality of life. The qualitative results suggested positive experiences of participating in the trial and of attending the groups. Participants reported that memory rehabilitation was not routinely accessible in usual care. The primary health economics outcome at 12 months found memory rehabilitation to be £26.89 cheaper than usual care but less effective, with an incremental QALY loss of 0.007. Differences in costs and effects were not statistically significant and non-parametric bootstrapping demonstrated considerable uncertainty in these findings. No safety concerns were raised and no deaths were reported.

LIMITATIONS

As a pragmatic trial, we had broad inclusion criteria and, therefore, there was considerable heterogeneity within the sample. The study was not powered to perform further subgroup analyses. Participants and therapists could not be blinded to treatment allocation.

CONCLUSIONS

The group memory rehabilitation delivered in this trial is very unlikely to lead to clinical benefits or to be a cost-effective treatment for people with TBI in the community. Future studies should examine the selection of participants who may benefit most from memory rehabilitation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN65792154.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 23, No. 16. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Prevalence of chronic kidney disease in adults in England: comparison of nationally representative cross-sectional surveys from 2003 to 2016

OBJECTIVES

To identify recent trends in chronic kidney disease (CKD) prevalence in England and explore their association with changes in sociodemographic, behavioural and clinical factors.

DESIGN

Pooled cross-sectional analysis.

SETTING

Health Survey for England 2003, 2009/2010 combined and 2016.

PARTICIPANTS

17 663 individuals (aged 16+) living in private households.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Prevalence of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and albuminuria (measured by albumin-creatinine ratio) during 2009/2010 and 2016 and trends in eGFR between 2003 and 2016. eGFR was estimated using serum creatinine Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration and Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equations.

RESULTS

GFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 prevalence was 7.7% (95% CI 7.1% to 8.4%), 7.0% (6.4% to 7.7%) and 7.3%(6.5% to 8.2%) in 2003, 2009/2010 and 2016, respectively. Albuminuria prevalence was 8.7% (8.1% to 9.5%) in 2009/2010 and 9.8% (8.7% to 10.9%) in 2016. Prevalence of CKD G1-5 (eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 or albuminuria) was 12.6% (11.8% to 13.4%) in 2009/2010 and 13.9% (12.8% to 15.2%) in 2016. Prevalence of diabetes and obesity increased during 2003-2016 while prevalence of hypertension and smoking fell. The age-adjusted and gender-adjusted OR of eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 for 2016 versus 2009/2010 was 0.99 (0.82 to 1.18) and fully adjusted OR was 1.13 (0.93 to 1.37). There was no significant period effect on the prevalence of albuminuria or CKD G1-5 from 2009/2010 to 2016 in age and gender or fully adjusted models.

CONCLUSION

The fall in eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 seen from 2003 to 2009/2010 did not continue to 2016. However, absolute CKD burden is likely to rise with population growth and ageing, particularly if diabetes prevalence continues to increase. This highlights the need for greater CKD prevention efforts and continued surveillance.

Perioperative intravenous contrast administration and the incidence of acute kidney injury after major gastrointestinal surgery: prospective, multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to determine the impact of preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast for CT and the risk of developing postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery.

METHODS

This prospective, multicentre cohort study included adults undergoing gastrointestinal resection, stoma reversal or liver resection. Both elective and emergency procedures were included. Preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast was defined as exposure to contrast administered for the purposes of CT up to 7 days before surgery. The primary endpoint was the rate of AKI within 7 days. Propensity score-matched models were adjusted for patient, disease and operative variables. In a sensitivity analysis, a propensity score-matched model explored the association between preoperative exposure to contrast and AKI in the first 48 h after surgery.

RESULTS

A total of 5378 patients were included across 173 centres. Overall, 1249 patients (23·2 per cent) received intravenous contrast. The overall rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery was 13·4 per cent (718 of 5378). In the propensity score-matched model, preoperative exposure to contrast was not associated with AKI within 7 days (odds ratio (OR) 0·95, 95 per cent c.i. 0·73 to 1·21; P = 0·669). The sensitivity analysis showed no association between preoperative contrast administration and AKI within 48 h after operation (OR 1·09, 0·84 to 1·41; P = 0·498).

CONCLUSION

There was no association between preoperative intravenous contrast administered for CT up to 7 days before surgery and postoperative AKI. Risk of contrast-induced nephropathy should not be used as a reason to avoid contrast-enhanced CT.

Machine learning to predict early recurrence after oesophageal cancer surgery

BACKGROUND

Early cancer recurrence after oesophagectomy is a common problem, with an incidence of 20-30 per cent despite the widespread use of neoadjuvant treatment. Quantification of this risk is difficult and existing models perform poorly. This study aimed to develop a predictive model for early recurrence after surgery for oesophageal adenocarcinoma using a large multinational cohort and machine learning approaches.

METHODS

Consecutive patients who underwent oesophagectomy for adenocarcinoma and had neoadjuvant treatment in one Dutch and six UK oesophagogastric units were analysed. Using clinical characteristics and postoperative histopathology, models were generated using elastic net regression (ELR) and the machine learning methods random forest (RF) and extreme gradient boosting (XGB). Finally, a combined (ensemble) model of these was generated. The relative importance of factors to outcome was calculated as a percentage contribution to the model.

RESULTS

A total of 812 patients were included. The recurrence rate at less than 1 year was 29·1 per cent. All of the models demonstrated good discrimination. Internally validated areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUCs) were similar, with the ensemble model performing best (AUC 0·791 for ELR, 0·801 for RF, 0·804 for XGB, 0·805 for ensemble). Performance was similar when internal-external validation was used (validation across sites, AUC 0·804 for ensemble). In the final model, the most important variables were number of positive lymph nodes (25·7 per cent) and lymphovascular invasion (16·9 per cent).

CONCLUSION

The model derived using machine learning approaches and an international data set provided excellent performance in quantifying the risk of early recurrence after surgery, and will be useful in prognostication for clinicians and patients.

Skull morphology diverges between urban and rural populations of red foxes mirroring patterns of domestication and macroevolution

Human activity is drastically altering the habitat use of natural populations. This has been documented as a driver of phenotypic divergence in a number of wild animal populations. Here, we show that urban and rural populations of red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) from London and surrounding boroughs are divergent in skull traits. These changes are primarily found to be involved with snout length, with urban individuals tending to have shorter and wider muzzles relative to rural individuals, smaller braincases and reduced sexual dimorphism. Changes were widespread and related to muscle attachment sites and thus are likely driven by differing biomechanical demands of feeding or cognition between habitats. Through extensive sampling of the genus Vulpes, we found no support for phylogenetic effects on skull morphology, but patterns of divergence found between urban and rural habitats in V. vulpes quantitatively aligned with macroevolutionary divergence between species. The patterns of skull divergence between urban and rural habitats matched the description of morphological changes that can occur during domestication. Specifically, urban populations of foxes show variation consistent with 'domestication syndrome'. Therefore, we suggest that occurrences of phenotypic divergence in relation to human activity, while interesting themselves, also have the potential to inform us of the conditions and mechanisms that could initiate domestication. Finally, this also suggests that patterns of domestication may be developmentally biased towards larger patterns of interspecific divergence.

0198 Psychomotor/Cognitive Effects, Pharmacokinetics and Safety of V117957, a Novel, Highly Potent and Selective Partial Agonist for Nociceptin/Orphanin-FQ Peptide (NOP) Receptors, Administered in Combination with Alcohol in Healthy Subjects

Introduction

V117957 is an investigational nociceptin/orphanin-FQ peptide (NOP) receptor partial agonist designed to treat insomnia by promoting sleep onset and maintenance with minimal residual next-day somnolence or psychomotor impairment. The satisfactory safety/tolerability profile of V117957 has been previously established in ~200 healthy subjects with maximum doses at 30mg following a single oral administration and 10mg once daily for 2 weeks. The present study was conducted to assess the safety/tolerability and pharmacokinetics (PK) of V117957 with co-administered alcohol.

Methods

A randomized, double-blind, double-dummy, placebo-controlled, balanced six-period crossover design was employed. Single doses (2mg, 6mg) of V117957 and placebo were administered orally to healthy subjects in the morning with and without alcohol (0.7g/kg). Pharmacodynamic (PD) effects of V117957 were assessed, and safety/tolerability and PK interactions were also characterized. The primary PD endpoints (body sway, Digit Vigilance Test, and numeric working memory) were measured through 12 hours postdosing.

Results

Forty-eight subjects were enrolled and randomized; 46 completed. Compared with placebo, alcohol alone showed an impairment on psychomotor/cognitive performances through 2 hours postdose. V117957 alone showed a dose-dependent impairment. Compared with V117957 alone and alcohol alone, co-administration of alcohol and V117957 showed greater impairment until 8 hours postdose. No subject discontinued due to an adverse event (AE). No clinically meaningful treatment-emergent (TE) changes in clinical laboratory values, vital signs, SpO2 measurements, or 12-lead ECG results were observed. The most common TEAE was somnolence. All plasma and urine PK parameters for V117957 and alcohol were comparable when V117957 or alcohol was administered alone or in combination.

Conclusion

Single oral doses of V117957, 2mg or 6mg, administered alone or in combination with alcohol in healthy subjects resulted in no notable PK interaction between V117957 and alcohol. A dose-effect relationship in the magnitude and duration of impairment was observed for most psychomotor/cognitive performance parameters. Greater effects of V117957 with alcohol were observed for most psychomotor/cognitive performance parameters up to 8 hours post-dose.

Support

Funded by Imbrium Therapeutics, a subsidiary of Purdue Pharma L.P.

0500 Evaluation of the Human Abuse Potential of Single Oral Doses of V117957, a Novel, Highly Potent and Selective Partial Agonist for Nociceptin/Orphanin-FQ Peptide (NOP) Receptors

Introduction

The satisfactory safety/tolerability profile of V117957, an investigational NOP receptor partial agonist, has been previously established in ~200 healthy subjects with maximum doses at 30mg following a single oral administration and 10mg once daily for 2 weeks. V117957 exhibited linear plasma exposures at doses up to 10mg. In patients with insomnia disorder, V117957 demonstrated dose-dependent improvement in sleep efficiency and sleep maintenance between 0.5mg and 10mg as measured by polysomnography and patient diaries. The current study evaluated the abuse potential and safety of V117957 in healthy, nondependent recreational polydrug users with a history of central nervous system (CNS) depressant use.

Methods

The abuse potential of V117957 (1mg, 6mg, 10mg), placebo, and triazolam (0.5mg, 1mg) were assessed in a randomized, double-blind, double-dummy, placebo- and positive-controlled crossover study. Triazolam was utilized as a positive control based on its comparable pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic characteristics. V117957 doses (1mg, 6mg, 10mg) were selected to represent therapeutic, mid-range supratherapeutic, and maximum-tolerated supratherapeutic doses, respectively. Subjects were qualified based on pharmacodynamic responses following a single oral 0.75mg triazolam dose. Drug liking was measured through 24 hours, including the primary endpoint of maximum “at the moment” Drug-Liking Visual Analog Scale, as recommended by FDA. Secondary endpoints included Divided Attention Test (DAT) and Choice Reaction Time (CRT).

Results

The positive control (triazolam 0.5mg, 1mg) produced statistically significant greater abuse potential and cognitive/motor impairment versus placebo, which demonstrated study validity. In contrast, V117957 at 1mg was not statistically significantly different from placebo. At the supra-therapeutic doses of 6 and 10mg, V117957 was associated with abuse potential and cognitive/motor impairment greater than placebo, yet similar to those of triazolam 0.5 and 1mg.

Conclusion

Overall, in this valid study, V117957 1mg and placebo were associated with statistically significant lower potential for abuse and reduced cognitive/motor impairment compared with the two supratherapeutic doses of V117957 (6mg, 10mg), and triazolam (0.5mg, 1mg). V117957 1mg met FDA’s statistical criterion for similarity to placebo.

Support

Funded by Imbrium Therapeutics, a subsidiary of Purdue Pharma L.P.

Gemcitabine-based adjuvant chemotherapy in subtypes of ampullary adenocarcinoma: international propensity score-matched cohort study

BACKGROUND

Whether patients who undergo resection of ampullary adenocarcinoma have a survival benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy is currently unknown. The aim of this study was to compare survival between patients with and without adjuvant chemotherapy after resection of ampullary adenocarcinoma in a propensity score-matched analysis.

METHODS

An international multicentre cohort study was conducted, including patients who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy for ampullary adenocarcinoma between 2006 and 2017, in 13 centres in six countries. Propensity scores were used to match patients who received adjuvant chemotherapy with those who did not, in the entire cohort and in two subgroups (pancreatobiliary/mixed and intestinal subtypes). Survival was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression analyses.

RESULTS

Overall, 1163 patients underwent pancreatoduodenectomy for ampullary adenocarcinoma. After excluding 187 patients, median survival in the remaining 976 patients was 67 (95 per cent c.i. 56 to 78) months. A total of 520 patients (53·3 per cent) received adjuvant chemotherapy. In a propensity score-matched cohort (194 patients in each group), survival was better among patients who received adjuvant chemotherapy than in those who did not (median survival not reached versus 60 months respectively; P = 0·051). A survival benefit was seen in patients with the pancreatobiliary/mixed subtype; median survival was not reached in patients receiving adjuvant chemotherapy and 32 months in the group without chemotherapy (P = 0·020). Patients with the intestinal subtype did not show any survival benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy.

CONCLUSION

Patients with resected ampullary adenocarcinoma may benefit from gemcitabine-based adjuvant chemotherapy, but this effect may be reserved for those with the pancreatobiliary and/or mixed subtype.

Health resource utilization of labor induction versus expectant management

BACKGROUND

Although induction of labor of low-risk nulliparous women at 39 weeks reduces the risk of cesarean delivery compared with expectant management, concern regarding more frequent use of labor induction remains, given that this intervention historically has been thought to incur greater resource utilization.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the study was to determine whether planned elective labor induction at 39 weeks among low-risk nulliparous women, compared with expectant management, was associated with differences in health care resource utilization from the time of randomization through 8 weeks postpartum.

STUDY DESIGN

This is a planned secondary analysis of a multicenter randomized trial in which low-risk nulliparous women were assigned to induction of labor at 39 weeks or expectant management. We assessed resource utilization after randomization in 3 time periods: antepartum, delivery admission, and discharge through 8 weeks postpartum.

RESULTS

Of 6096 women with data available, those in the induction of labor group (n = 3059) were significantly less likely in the antepartum period after randomization to have at least 1 ambulatory visit for routine prenatal care (32.4% vs 68.4%), unanticipated care (0.5% vs 2.6%), or urgent care (16.2% vs 44.3%), or at least 1 antepartum hospitalization (0.8% vs 2.2%, P < .001 for all). They also had fewer tests (eg, sonograms, blood tests) and treatments (eg, antibiotics, intravenous hydration) prior to delivery. During the delivery admission, women in the induction of labor group spent a longer time in labor and delivery (median, 0.83 vs 0.57 days), but both women (P = .002) and their neonates (P < .001) had shorter postpartum stays. Women and neonates in both groups had similar frequencies of postpartum urgent care and hospital readmissions (P > .05 for all).

CONCLUSION

Women randomized to induction of labor had longer durations in labor and delivery but significantly fewer antepartum visits, tests, and treatments and shorter maternal and neonatal hospital durations after delivery. These results demonstrate that the health outcome advantages associated with induction of labor are gained without incurring uniformly greater health care resource use.

Translational outcomes in a full gene deletion of ubiquitin protein ligase E3A rat model of Angelman syndrome

Angelman syndrome (AS) is a rare neurodevelopmental disorder characterized by developmental delay, impaired communication, motor deficits and ataxia, intellectual disabilities, microcephaly, and seizures. The genetic cause of AS is the loss of expression of UBE3A (ubiquitin protein ligase E6-AP) in the brain, typically due to a deletion of the maternal 15q11-q13 region. Previous studies have been performed using a mouse model with a deletion of a single exon of Ube3a. Since three splice variants of Ube3a exist, this has led to a lack of consistent reports and the theory that perhaps not all mouse studies were assessing the effects of an absence of all functional UBE3A. Herein, we report the generation and functional characterization of a novel model of Angelman syndrome by deleting the entire Ube3a gene in the rat. We validated that this resulted in the first comprehensive gene deletion rodent model. Ultrasonic vocalizations from newborn Ube3am-/p+ were reduced in the maternal inherited deletion group with no observable change in the Ube3am+/p- paternal transmission cohort. We also discovered Ube3am-/p+ exhibited delayed reflex development, motor deficits in rearing and fine motor skills, aberrant social communication, and impaired touchscreen learning and memory in young adults. These behavioral deficits were large in effect size and easily apparent in the larger rodent species. Low social communication was detected using a playback task that is unique to rats. Structural imaging illustrated decreased brain volume in Ube3am-/p+ and a variety of intriguing neuroanatomical phenotypes while Ube3am+/p- did not exhibit altered neuroanatomy. Our report identifies, for the first time, unique AS relevant functional phenotypes and anatomical markers as preclinical outcomes to test various strategies for gene and molecular therapies in AS.

Cognitive rehabilitation for attention and memory in people with multiple sclerosis: a randomized controlled trial (CRAMMS)

Objective:

To assess the clinical and cost-effectiveness of cognitive rehabilitation for attention and memory problems in people with multiple sclerosis.

Design:

Multicentre, pragmatic, randomized controlled trial.

Setting:

Community

Participants:

People with multiple sclerosis aged 18–69 years, who reported cognitive problems in daily life and had cognitive problems on standardized assessment.

Interventions:

A group cognitive rehabilitation programme delivered in 10 weekly sessions in comparison with usual care.

Main measures:

The primary outcome was the Multiple Sclerosis Impact Scale Psychological subscale at 12 months after randomization. Secondary outcomes included measures of everyday memory problems, mood, fatigue, cognitive abilities and employment at 6 and 12 months after randomization.

Results:

In all, 245 participants were allocated to cognitive rehabilitation and 204 to usual care. Mean Multiple Sclerosis Impact Scale Psychological at 12 months was 22.2 (SD = 6.1) for cognitive rehabilitation and 23.4 (SD = 6.0) for usual care group; adjusted difference −0.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) = −1.5 to 0.3, P = 0.20. No differences were observed in cognitive abilities, fatigue or employment. There were small differences in favour of cognitive rehabilitation for the Multiple Sclerosis Impact Scale Psychological at 6 months and everyday memory and mood at 6 and 12 months. There was no evidence of an effect on costs (−£808; 95% CI = −£2248 to £632) or on quality-adjusted life year gain (0.00; 95% CI = −0.01 to 0.02).

Conclusion:

This rehabilitation programme had no long-term benefits on the impact of multiple sclerosis on quality of life, but there was some evidence of an effect on everyday memory problems and mood.

P5430Long term outcomes of patients receiving Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillators in a contemporary implant population in the Essex region of the UK

Introduction

Implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICD) reduce the risk of sudden cardiac death in patients who are at risk and amongst among heart failure (HF) patients with a reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF).

Objective

The aim of this study was to determine the differences in outcomes amongst patients in a contemporary ICD implant population based on primary or secondary indications and an ischaemic or non-ischaemic aetiology. The primary outcome was death or appropriate device therapy for a ventricular arrhythmia. The secondary outcome was inappropriate shock therapy.

Purpose

The study cohort included consecutive patients who had an ICD or CRT-D implanted at a high-volume regional referral centre in Essex between 2014 and 2015. The censor point for follow up was 31/12/2018. Cumulative incidences were analysed by the method of Kaplan–Meier and compared using the log-rank test. In addition, the relationship between several clinical variables were tested in a multivariate Cox model to predict long-term mortality and this is described with hazard ratios (HR) and 95% CI.

Results

407 patients who received ICD treatment were followed up for a mean of 50±4 months. 63% had an Ischaemic cardiomyopathy and 60% had a primary prevention indication. Majority were men (81.5%), mean LVEF was (31±11) and mean age (71±11). The incidence of appropriate ICD therapy at 1-year post ICD insertion was 6.8% in all patients. This was significantly higher in patients with a secondary prevention indication compared to primary prevention (11.7% v 3.6% p=0.015) but similar in ischaemic compared to non-ischaemic patients (7.8% v 5.2% p=0.46). 1.9% patients had an inappropriate shock at 1 year and between group rate was similar. Overall 8.1% of patients did not survive beyond 1-year post implant with a mean time to death of 5.6±3.6 months. The cumulative incidence of the primary end-point at 1 year was similar in ischaemic and non-Ischaemic patients (7.8% v 8.6%; HR: 1.04, 95% CI 0.7–1.5, p=0.83) but was significantly higher at the end of study period in patients with an ischaemic aetiology (32.4% v 21%; HR: 1.59, 95% CI: 1.1–2.4, p=0.024) (Fig.1). In an adjusted Cox Hazard model, appropriate ICD therapy at 1 year (HR: 0.28, 95% CI: 0.17–0.47, p<0.001) and a secondary indication for ICD treatment (HR: 0.47, 95% CI: 0.31–0.73, p=0.001) were strongly associated with long-term mortality.

Figure 1

Conclusions

Our study highlights outcomes in a long-term follow up of ICD patients and in light of the debate around the DANISH trial, we have shown that at 1 year, the benefit of ICD therapy is comparable in non-ischaemic compared to ischaemic cardiomyopathies. Moreover, patients who had an ICD implanted for secondary prevention had a 3-fold mortality benefit at 1 year and had a higher rate of death. Appropriate ICD therapy and a secondary prevention indication predicted long term mortality.

Three phylogenetic groups have driven the recent population expansion of Cryptococcus neoformans

Cryptococcus neoformans (C. neoformans var. grubii) is an environmentally acquired pathogen causing 181,000 HIV-associated deaths each year. We sequenced 699 isolates, primarily C. neoformans from HIV-infected patients, from 5 countries in Asia and Africa. The phylogeny of C. neoformans reveals a recent exponential population expansion, consistent with the increase in the number of susceptible hosts. In our study population, this expansion has been driven by three sub-clades of the C. neoformans VNIa lineage; VNIa-4, VNIa-5 and VNIa-93. These three sub-clades account for 91% of clinical isolates sequenced in our study. Combining the genome data with clinical information, we find that the VNIa-93 sub-clade, the most common sub-clade in Uganda and Malawi, was associated with better outcomes than VNIa-4 and VNIa-5, which predominate in Southeast Asia. This study lays the foundation for further work investigating the dominance of VNIa-4, VNIa-5 and VNIa-93 and the association between lineage and clinical phenotype.

WP1-22 DuraGen™ as an encapsulating material for neural stem cell delivery

Objectives

Achieving neural regeneration after spinal cord injury (SCI) represents a significant challenge. Neural stem cell (NSC) therapy offers replacement of damaged cells and delivery of pro-regenerative factors, but >95% of cells die when transplanted to sites of neural injury. Biomaterial scaffolds provide cellular protective encapsulation to improve cell survival. However, current available scaffolds are overwhelmingly not approved for human use, presenting a major barrier to clinical translation. Surgical biomaterials offer the unique benefit of being FDA-approved for human implantation. Specifically, a neurosurgical grade material, DuraGen™, used predominantly for human duraplasty has many attractive features of an ideal biomaterial scaffold. Here, we have investigated the use of DuraGen™ as a 3D cell encapsulation device for potential use in combinatorial, regenerative therapies.

Methods

Primary NSCs were seeded into optimised sheets of DuraGen™. NSC growth and fate within DuraGen™ were assessed using 3D microscopic fluorescence imaging techniques.

Results

DuraGen™ supports the survival (ca 95% viability, 12 days) and 3D growth of NSCs. NSC phenotype, proliferative capacity and differentiation into astrocytes, neurons and oligodendrocytes were unaffected by DuraGen™.

Conclusions

A ‘combinatorial therapy’, consisting of NSCs protected within a DuraGen™ matrix, offers a potential clinically translatable approach for neural cell therapy.

A longitudinal assessment of periodontal health status in 53 Labrador retrievers

OBJECTIVES

To determine the incidence and rates of progression of gingivitis and periodontitis in Labrador retrievers.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Fifty-three dogs, aged 1·1 to 5·9 years, had their periodontal health assessed every 6 months for up to 2 years. The extent of gingivitis and periodontitis was measured around the whole gingival margin of every tooth under general anaesthesia.

RESULTS

All dogs had gingivitis at the initial assessment. The majority (64·2%) of tooth aspects had very mild gingivitis. The palatal/lingual aspect of all tooth types was most likely to show bleeding when probed: 63·0% of these aspects had mild or moderate gingivitis. Over 2 years, 56·6% of dogs developed periodontitis and dogs as young as 1·9 years were affected. There was a significant positive correlation between the proportion of teeth with periodontitis and age. In total, 124 teeth (5·7%) developed periodontitis; 88 (71·0%) of these were incisors. The palatal/lingual aspect of the incisors developed the disease first (2·8% of incisor aspects).

CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE

Periodontitis developed in regions that are difficult to see in conscious dogs implying that detection and treatment of disease requires periodic sedation or anaesthesia.

Bilateral versus unilateral botulinum toxin injections for chronic anal fissure: a randomised trial

BACKGROUND

Botulinum toxin injected into the internal anal sphincter is used in the treatment of chronic anal fissure but there is no standardised technique for its administration. This randomised single centre trial compares bilateral (either side of fissure) to unilateral injection.

METHODS

Participants were randomised to receive bilateral (50 + 50 units) or unilateral (100 units) Dysport® injections into the internal anal sphincter in an outpatient setting. Injection-related pain assessed by visual analogue scale was the primary outcome measure. Secondary outcomes were healing rate, fissure pain, incontinence, and global health scores.

RESULTS

Between October 2008 and April 2012, 100 patients with chronic anal fissure were randomised to receive bilateral or unilateral injections. Injection-related pain was comparable in both groups. There was no difference in healing rate. Initially, there was greater improvement in fissure pain in the bilateral group but at 1 year the unilateral group showed greater improvement. Cleveland Clinic Incontinence score was lower in the unilateral group in the early post-treatment period and global health assessment (EuroQol EQ-VAS) was higher in the unilateral group at 1 year.

CONCLUSIONS

Injection-related pain was similar in bilateral and unilateral injection groups. Unilateral injection was as effective as bilateral injections in healing and improving fissure pain without any deterioration in continence.

Development and validation of a difficulty score to predict intraoperative complications during laparoscopic liver resection

Background

Previous studies have demonstrated that patient, surgical, tumour and operative variables affect the complexity of laparoscopic liver resections. However, current difficulty scoring systems address only tumour factors. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a predictive model for the risk of intraoperative complications during laparoscopic liver resections.

Methods

The prospectively maintained databases of seven European tertiary referral liver centres were compiled. Data from two-thirds of the patients were used for development and one-third for validation of the model. Intraoperative complications were based on a modified Satava classification. Using the methodology of the Framingham Heart Study, developed to identify risk factors that contribute to the development of cardiovascular disease, factors found to predict intraoperative complications independently were assigned points, and grouped into low-, moderate-, high- and extremely high-risk groups based on the likelihood of intraoperative complications.

Results

A total of 2856 patients were included. Neoadjuvant chemotherapy, lesion type and size, classification of resection and previous open liver resection were found to be independent predictors of intraoperative complications. Patients with intraoperative complications had a longer duration of hospital stay (5 versus 4 days; P &lt; 0·001), higher complication rates (32·5 versus 15·5 per cent; P &lt; 0·001), and higher 30-day (3·0 versus 0·3 per cent; P &lt; 0·001) and 90-day (3·8 versus 0·8 per cent; P &lt; 0·001) mortality rates than those who did not. The model was able to predict intraoperative complications (area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) 0·677, 95 per cent c.i. 0·647 to 0·706) as well as postoperative 90-day mortality (AUC 0·769, 0·681 to 0·858).

Conclusion

This comprehensive scoring system, based on patient, surgical and tumour factors, and developed and validated using a large multicentre European database, helped estimate the risk of intraoperative complications.

Rare disruptive variants in the DISC1 Interactome and Regulome: association with cognitive ability and schizophrenia

Schizophrenia (SCZ), bipolar disorder (BD) and recurrent major depressive disorder (rMDD) are common psychiatric illnesses. All have been associated with lower cognitive ability, and show evidence of genetic overlap and substantial evidence of pleiotropy with cognitive function and neuroticism. Disrupted in schizophrenia 1 (DISC1) protein directly interacts with a large set of proteins (DISC1 Interactome) that are involved in brain development and signaling. Modulation of DISC1 expression alters the expression of a circumscribed set of genes (DISC1 Regulome) that are also implicated in brain biology and disorder. Here we report targeted sequencing of 59 DISC1 Interactome genes and 154 Regulome genes in 654 psychiatric patients and 889 cognitively-phenotyped control subjects, on whom we previously reported evidence for trait association from complete sequencing of the DISC1 locus. Burden analyses of rare and singleton variants predicted to be damaging were performed for psychiatric disorders, cognitive variables and personality traits. The DISC1 Interactome and Regulome showed differential association across the phenotypes tested. After family-wise error correction across all traits (FWERacross), an increased burden of singleton disruptive variants in the Regulome was associated with SCZ (FWERacross P=0.0339). The burden of singleton disruptive variants in the DISC1 Interactome was associated with low cognitive ability at age 11 (FWERacross P=0.0043). These results identify altered regulation of schizophrenia candidate genes by DISC1 and its core Interactome as an alternate pathway for schizophrenia risk, consistent with the emerging effects of rare copy number variants associated with intellectual disability.