Understanding the relation between Zika virus infection during pregnancy and adverse fetal, infant and child outcomes: a protocol for a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis of longitudinal studies of pregnant women and their infants and children

INTRODUCTION

Zika virus (ZIKV) infection during pregnancy is a known cause of microcephaly and other congenital and developmental anomalies. In the absence of a ZIKV vaccine or prophylactics, principal investigators (PIs) and international leaders in ZIKV research have formed the ZIKV Individual Participant Data (IPD) Consortium to identify, collect and synthesise IPD from longitudinal studies of pregnant women that measure ZIKV infection during pregnancy and fetal, infant or child outcomes.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will identify eligible studies through the ZIKV IPD Consortium membership and a systematic review and invite study PIs to participate in the IPD meta-analysis (IPD-MA). We will use the combined dataset to estimate the relative and absolute risk of congenital Zika syndrome (CZS), including microcephaly and late symptomatic congenital infections; identify and explore sources of heterogeneity in those estimates and develop and validate a risk prediction model to identify the pregnancies at the highest risk of CZS or adverse developmental outcomes. The variable accuracy of diagnostic assays and differences in exposure and outcome definitions means that included studies will have a higher level of systematic variability, a component of measurement error, than an IPD-MA of studies of an established pathogen. We will use expert testimony, existing internal and external diagnostic accuracy validation studies and laboratory external quality assessments to inform the distribution of measurement error in our models. We will apply both Bayesian and frequentist methods to directly account for these and other sources of uncertainty.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The IPD-MA was deemed exempt from ethical review. We will convene a group of patient advocates to evaluate the ethical implications and utility of the risk stratification tool. Findings from these analyses will be shared via national and international conferences and through publication in open access, peer-reviewed journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

PROSPERO International prospective register of systematic reviews (CRD42017068915).

Absence of Adolescent Obesity in Grenada: Is This a Generational Effect?

Background: Low- and middle-income countries are affected disproportionately by the ongoing global obesity pandemic. Representing a middle income country, the high prevalence of obesity among Grenadian adults as compared to US adults is expected as part of global obesity trends. The objective of this study was to determine if Grenadian adolescents have a higher prevalence of overweight compared to their US counterparts, and if a disparity exists between urban and rural adolescents. Methods: Using a subcohort of participants in the Grenadian Nutrition Student Survey, diet quality and anthropometric measures were collected from 55% of the classrooms of first year secondary students in Grenada (n = 639). Rural or urban designations were given to each school. Body Mass Index (BMI) was calculated and categorized as overweight or obese for each student following CDC classification cutoffs. A standardized BMI (BMIz) was calculated for each school. Sex-specific BMI and overall BMIz were compared to a 1980s US cohort. Multilevel models, overall and stratified by sex, of students nested within schools were conducted to determine if BMIz differed by rural or urban locality, gender, and diet quality. Results: The mean age of this cohort was 12.7 (SD = 0.8) years with 83.8% of the cohort identifying as Afro-Caribbean. Females had nearly twice the prevalence of overweight when compared to males (22.7 vs. 12.2%) but a similar prevalence of obesity (8.2 vs. 6.8%). Grenadian adolescents had lower prevalence of overweight (females: 22.7 vs. 44.7%; males: 12.2 vs. 38.8%, respectively) as compared to US counterparts. Eating a traditional diet was negatively associated with BMIz score among females ( β ^ = -0.395; SE = 0.123) in a stratified, multilevel analysis. BMIz scores did not differ significantly by rural or urban school designation. Conclusions: Among Grenadian adolescents, this study identified a lower overweight prevalence compared to US counterparts and no difference in overweight prevalence by urban or rural location. We hypothesize that the late introduction of processed foods to Grenada protected this cohort from obesogenic promoters due to a lack of fetal overnutrition. However, further research in subsequent birth cohorts is needed to determine if adolescent obesity will increase due to a generational effect.

Beta-haemolytic streptococci in school children 5-15 years of age with an emphasis on rheumatic fever, in the tri-island state of Grenada

The objective of this study is to determine the prevalence of beta-haemolytic streptococci in the pharynx and antibodies to beta-haemolytic streptococci in school children 5-15 years of age in the tri-island state of Grenada Blood samples and throat swabs were obtained from 1388 school children, aged 5-15 years old attending randomly selected schools in each parish of the tri-island state of Grenada. Serum samples were subjected to antistreptolysin o testing (ASOT) while throat swabs were cultured on sheep blood agar plates. The prevalence of positive throat swab was 15.4% (95% CI = 13.4%, 17.2%). The rate was highest in St Patrick (21.8%) and lowest in Carriacou (5.7%). The prevalence of antibodies was 38.6% (95% CI = 37.6%, 42.8%). It was highest in St Patrick (54.4%) and lowest in Petit Martinique (26.8%). In St Patrick, males were significantly more likely than females to have a positive ASOT (p = 0.0084). In St George's, males were significantly more likely than females to have a positive throat culture (p = 0.0172). Thirty-four per cent of the positive cultures were type A, 10% were type C and 56% type G. The data illustrate that there is a high prevalence of beta-haemolytic streptococci in school children in certain parishes in Grenada. Public health measures should address prevention and control of beta3-haemolytic streptococcal infection in order to prevent the possible sequelae of this disease.