Hierarchies of evidence applied to lifestyle Medicine (HEALM): introduction of a strength-of-evidence approach based on a methodological systematic review

BACKGROUND

Current methods for assessing strength of evidence prioritize the contributions of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). The objective of this study was to characterize strength of evidence (SOE) tools in recent use, identify their application to lifestyle interventions for improved longevity, vitality, or successful aging, and to assess implications of the findings.

METHODS

The search strategy was created in PubMed and modified as needed for four additional databases: Embase, AnthropologyPlus, PsycINFO, and Ageline, supplemented by manual searching. Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of intervention trials or observational studies relevant to lifestyle intervention were included if they used a specified SOE tool. Data was collected for each SOE tool. Conditions necessary for assigning the highest SOE grading and treatment of prospective cohort studies within each SOE rating framework were summarized. The expert panel convened to discuss the implications of findings for assessing evidence in the domain of lifestyle medicine.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

A total of 15 unique tools were identified. Ten were tools developed and used by governmental agencies or other equivalent professional bodies and were applicable in a variety of settings. Of these 10, four require consistent results from RCTs of high quality to award the highest rating of evidence. Most SOE tools include prospective cohort studies only to note their secondary contribution to overall SOE as compared to RCTs. We developed a new construct, Hierarchies of Evidence Applied to Lifestyle Medicine (HEALM), to illustrate the feasibility of a tool based on the specific contributions of diverse research methods to understanding lifetime effects of health behaviors. Assessment of evidence relevant to lifestyle medicine requires a potential adaptation of SOE approaches when outcomes and/or exposures obviate exclusive or preferential reliance on RCTs. This systematic review was registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews, PROSPERO [CRD42018082148].

Rotating night shift work and menopausal age

STUDY QUESTION

How are rotating night shift schedules associated with age at menopause among a large, national cohort of shift working nurses?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Our findings suggest that working rotating night shifts with sufficient frequency may modestly accelerate reproductive senescence among women who may already be predisposed to earlier menopause.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Younger age at menopause has been associated with increased risk of adverse health outcomes, particularly those linked to reproduction. Night work has been associated with reproductive dysfunction, including disruption of menstrual cycle patterns.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

This cohort study was conducted among 80 840 women of the Nurses' Health Study 2 (NHS2), with prospective follow-up from 1991 through 2013. Loss-to-follow-up of the NHS2 is estimated to be <10%.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

We assessed the association between cumulative and current rotating night shift work and age at natural menopause over 22 years of follow-up (1991-2013). Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for menopause, adjusted for age, smoking status, body mass index, physical activity, alcohol consumption, reproductive factors and exogenous hormone use.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Over follow-up, 27 456 women (34%) reached natural menopause. Women who worked 20 or more months of rotating night shifts in the prior 2-year had an increased risk of earlier menopause (multivariable-adjusted (MV)-HR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.02-1.16) compared to women without rotating night shift work. This risk was stronger among women undergoing menopause or otherwise censored under age 45 years (MV-HR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.08-1.46), than it was for those continuing in the study when >45 years old (MV-HR = 1.05, 95% CI: 0.99-1.13). Working 10 or more years of cumulative rotating night work was also associated with higher risk of menopause among women reaching menopause under age 45 (MV-HR10-19 years = 1.22, 95% CI: 1.03-1.44; MV-HR≥20 years = 1.73, 95% CI: 0.90-3.35), though not over the age of 45 years (MV-HR10-19 years = 1.04, 95% CI: 0.99-1.10; MV-HR≥20 years = 1.01, 95% CI: 0.89-1.15).

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

The degree to which observed effects of rotating night shifts on age at natural menopause are due to circadian disruption, rather than fatigue and stress associated with working more demanding schedules, is uncertain due to potential residual confounding by these factors.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

This is the first study to assess the effects of night work on menopausal timing among a larger national cohort of shift working women. Women already prone to earlier menopause may further truncate their reproductive lifetime by working schedules comprising day as well as night shifts.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

This study was supported by Center for Disease Control and Prevention/The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health Grant 5R01OH009803 (PI: Schernhammer E), as well as UM1 CA176726 from the National Institute of Health. The funding sources had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis and interpretation of the data; preparation, review or approval of the article; and decision to submit the article for publication. The authors have no conflicts of interest.

Sex-specific relevance of diabetes to occlusive vascular and other mortality: a collaborative meta-analysis of individual data from 980 793 adults from 68 prospective studies

BACKGROUND

Several studies have shown that diabetes confers a higher relative risk of vascular mortality among women than among men, but whether this increased relative risk in women exists across age groups and within defined levels of other risk factors is uncertain. We aimed to determine whether differences in established risk factors, such as blood pressure, BMI, smoking, and cholesterol, explain the higher relative risks of vascular mortality among women than among men.

METHODS

In our meta-analysis, we obtained individual participant-level data from studies included in the Prospective Studies Collaboration and the Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration that had obtained baseline information on age, sex, diabetes, total cholesterol, blood pressure, tobacco use, height, and weight. Data on causes of death were obtained from medical death certificates. We used Cox regression models to assess the relevance of diabetes (any type) to occlusive vascular mortality (ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, or other atherosclerotic deaths) by age, sex, and other major vascular risk factors, and to assess whether the associations of blood pressure, total cholesterol, and body-mass index (BMI) to occlusive vascular mortality are modified by diabetes.

RESULTS

Individual participant-level data were analysed from 980 793 adults. During 9·8 million person-years of follow-up, among participants aged between 35 and 89 years, 19 686 (25·6%) of 76 965 deaths were attributed to occlusive vascular disease. After controlling for major vascular risk factors, diabetes roughly doubled occlusive vascular mortality risk among men (death rate ratio [RR] 2·10, 95% CI 1·97-2·24) and tripled risk among women (3·00, 2·71-3·33; χ2 test for heterogeneity p<0·0001). For both sexes combined, the occlusive vascular death RRs were higher in younger individuals (aged 35-59 years: 2·60, 2·30-2·94) than in older individuals (aged 70-89 years: 2·01, 1·85-2·19; p=0·0001 for trend across age groups), and, across age groups, the death RRs were higher among women than among men. Therefore, women aged 35-59 years had the highest death RR across all age and sex groups (5·55, 4·15-7·44). However, since underlying confounder-adjusted occlusive vascular mortality rates at any age were higher in men than in women, the adjusted absolute excess occlusive vascular mortality associated with diabetes was similar for men and women. At ages 35-59 years, the excess absolute risk was 0·05% (95% CI 0·03-0·07) per year in women compared with 0·08% (0·05-0·10) per year in men; the corresponding excess at ages 70-89 years was 1·08% (0·84-1·32) per year in women and 0·91% (0·77-1·05) per year in men. Total cholesterol, blood pressure, and BMI each showed continuous log-linear associations with occlusive vascular mortality that were similar among individuals with and without diabetes across both sexes.

INTERPRETATION

Independent of other major vascular risk factors, diabetes substantially increased vascular risk in both men and women. Lifestyle changes to reduce smoking and obesity and use of cost-effective drugs that target major vascular risks (eg, statins and antihypertensive drugs) are important in both men and women with diabetes, but might not reduce the relative excess risk of occlusive vascular disease in women with diabetes, which remains unexplained.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, European Union BIOMED programme, and National Institute on Aging (US National Institutes of Health).

Prediagnostic Body-mass Index, Smoking and Prostate Cancer Survival: A Cohort Consortium Study of Over 10,000 White Men with Prostate Cancer

Few prospective studies have investigated the relationship between pre-diagnostic obesity, smoking and prostate cancer (PCa) survival by timing of measurement, by age at diagnosis, and evaluated the interaction between obesity and smoking. METHODS: We conducted a multinational survival analysis among 10,106 PCa cases (1,007 PCa deaths and 2,893 total deaths) from eight cohorts with an average of 8.2 years of follow up. Hazard ratio (HR) of PCa death was estimated using Cox proportional hazard model, adjusting for age, alcohol intake, diabetes status, cohort and duration between baseline and diagnosis and subsequently adjusted for tumor stage and grade. RESULTS: Higher prediagnostic BMI was related to higher risk of PCa death. With each 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI, the multivariate HR for PCa death was 1.08 (95% CI, 1.02–1.14) among overall participants (p-trend = 0.01) and 1.33 (95% CI, 1.18–1.51) among never or former smokers (p-trend &lt; 0.001). This positive trend for PCa mortality was mainly observed among men with BMI measured more than 5 years before diagnosis, and among those age &gt;65 years old at diagnosis. Compared with never smokers, current smokers had significantly elevated risk of PCa death, with a HR of 1.92 (95% CI, 1.52–2.43) regardless of the time of measurement, age at diagnosis and BMI. After further adjusting for tumor stage and grade, the association between BMI, smoking and PCa death was attenuated but remained statistical significant. CONCLUSIONS: In this consortium study of eight large cohorts, smoking and overweight/obesity before diagnosis were significant predictors for subsequent PCa-specific mortality. Smoking significantly modifies the association of BMI and PCa-specific mortality.

The impact of dietary patterns on cancer recurrence and survival in patients with stage III colon cancer: Findings from CALGB 89803

4019

Background: Dietary factors have been associated with the risk of developing colon cancer; the influence of diet on pts with established disease is unknown. Methods: We conducted a prospective observational study of 1,009 patients with stage III colon cancer enrolled in a phase III adjuvant chemotherapy trial. Patients reported on dietary intake using a food frequency questionnaire during and 6 months after adjuvant chemotherapy. We identified two major dietary patterns, prudent and Western, by factor analysis. The prudent pattern was characterized by higher intake of fruits, vegetables, poultry and fish; the Western pattern by higher intake of red meat, fat, refined grains and desserts. Since there was no difference in efficacy between the 2 treatments, data for all pts were combined and analyzed according to quintiles of each dietary pattern. Patients were followed for cancer recurrence or death. Results: A higher intake of a Western pattern diet after cancer diagnosis was associated with a significantly worsened disease-free survival (DFS). After adjustment for gender, age, T and N stage, body mass index, physical activity level, weight change, baseline performance status, and treatment arm, patients in the highest quintile of Western pattern diet intake experienced a hazard ratio for DFS of 3.15 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.76–5.63; p trend = <0.0001), compared to those in the lowest quintile. Western pattern diet was associated with a similar detriment in recurrence-free survival (adjusted p trend = 0.001) and overall survival (adjusted p trend = 0.0002). In contrast, prudent pattern diet did not significantly influence cancer recurrence or mortality. Conclusions: Higher intake of a Western pattern diet may increase the risk of recurrence and mortality among patients with stage III colon cancer patients treated with surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy. Further studies are needed to delineate which components of such a diet are most influential.

[Table: see text]

No significant financial relationships to disclose.

Assessment of questionnaire validity for measuring total fat intake using plasma lipid levels as criteria

The validation of dietary total fat measurements has been elusive because no specific biomarker exists. In metabolic studies with controlled diets, plasma fasting triglyceride levels are reduced with higher fat intake and can thus serve as an "alloyed gold" standard. Participants in this cross-sectional analysis were 269 men aged 47-83 years from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study who completed a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire and provided fasting blood specimens in 1994. In a multiple regression analysis adjusted for age; smoking; alcohol consumption; physical activity; body mass index; and intakes of protein, dietary fiber, and total energy, total fat intake was inversely associated with fasting triglycerides (for a fat increase of 1% of energy, triglyceride levels were lower by 2.5% (95% confidence interval: -3.7 to -1.3%, p = 0.0002)). For reported fat intakes of 20% or less of energy, the geometric mean fasting triglyceride level was 179, and for more than 40% of energy, it was 102 mg/dl. In addition, as predicted by metabolic studies, the inverse association between dietary fat and fasting triglyceride level was much stronger among overweight men than among men with a BMI of less than 25. These data provide additional evidence that informative measurements of dietary fat can be obtained by carefully constructed food frequency questionnaires.

Milk intake, circulating levels of insulin-like growth factor-I, and risk of colorectal cancer in men

BACKGROUND

Milk and dietary calcium may have antiproliferative effects against colorectal cancer, but milk intake also raises serum levels of insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I). A high ratio of IGF-I to IGF-binding protein-3 (IGFBP-3) has been linked to an increased risk of colorectal cancer.

METHODS

In a case-control study nested in the Physicians' Health Study, plasma samples were collected from the period 1982 through 1983 from 14 916 men, aged 40-84 years, who also answered dietary questionnaires. Circulating levels of IGF-I and IGFBP-3 were assayed among 193 men who developed colorectal cancer during 13 years of follow-up and 318 age- and smoking-matched cancer-free control men. Conditional logistic regression was used to assess relative risks (RRs) of colorectal cancer for tertiles of IGF-I/IGFBP-3 and dietary factors. Statistical tests were two-sided.

RESULTS

Overall, there was a moderate but statistically nonsignificant inverse association between intake of low-fat milk or calcium from dairy food and colorectal cancer risk. Intake of dairy food (especially low-fat milk) was also positively and moderately associated with plasma levels of IGF-I, IGFBP-3, and IGF-I/IGFBP-3 among control men. We observed a statistically significant interaction between low-fat milk intake and IGF-I/IGFBP-3 in association with risk of colorectal cancer (P(interaction) =.03). Nondrinkers with IGF-I/IGFBP-3 in the highest tertile had a threefold higher risk than nondrinkers with IGF-I/IGFBP-3 in the lowest tertile (RR = 3.05; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.29 to 7.24), but no such increase was seen among frequent low-fat milk drinkers (RR = 1.05; 95% CI = 0.41 to 2.69). Conversely, among men with high IGF-I/IGFBP-3, frequent low-fat milk drinkers had a 60% lower risk (95% CI = 0.17 to 0.87; P(trend) =.02) than nondrinkers.

CONCLUSION

Intake of dairy products was associated with a modest increase in circulating IGF-I levels, but intake of low-fat milk was associated with lower risk of colorectal cancer, particularly among individuals with high IGF-I/IGFBP-3. This subpopulation, which is at increased risk of colorectal cancer, might benefit the most from specific dietary intervention.

Dietary fat and risk for advanced age-related macular degeneration

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the relationship between intake of total and specific types of fat and risk for advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD), the leading cause of irreversible blindness in adults.

DESIGN

A multicenter eye disease case-control study.

SETTING

Five US clinical ophthalmology centers.

PATIENTS

Case subjects included 349 individuals (age range, 55-80 years) with the advanced, neovascular stage of AMD diagnosed within 1 year of their enrollment into the study who resided near a participating clinical center. Control subjects included 504 individuals without AMD but with other ocular diseases. Controls were from the same geographic areas as cases and were frequency-matched to cases by age and sex.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Relative risk for AMD according to level of fat intake, controlling for cigarette smoking and other risk factors.

RESULTS

Higher vegetable fat consumption was associated with an elevated risk for AMD. After adjusting for age, sex, education, cigarette smoking, and other risk factors, the odds ratio (OR) was 2.22 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.32-3.74) for persons in the highest vs those in the lowest quintiles of intake (P for trend,.007). The risk for AMD was also significantly elevated for the highest vs lowest quintiles of intake of monounsaturated (OR, 1.71) and polyunsaturated (OR, 1.86) fats (Ps for trend,.03 and.03, respectively). Higher consumption of linoleic acid was also associated with a higher risk for AMD (P for trend,.02). Higher intake of omega-3 fatty acids was associated with a lower risk for AMD among individuals consuming diets low in linoleic acid, an omega-6 fatty acid (P for trend,.05; P for continuous variable,.03). Similarly, higher frequency of fish intake tended to reduce risk for AMD when the diet was low in linoleic acid (P for trend,.05). Conversely, neither omega-3 fatty acids nor fish intake were related to risk for AMD among people with high levels of linoleic acid intake.

CONCLUSION

Higher intake of specific types of fat--including vegetable, monounsaturated, and polyunsaturated fats and linoleic acid--rather than total fat intake may be associated with a greater risk for advanced AMD. Diets high in omega-3 fatty acids and fish were inversely associated with risk for AMD when intake of linoleic acid was low.

Questionnaire assessment of antioxidants and retinol intakes in Mexican women

BACKGROUND

In order to assess intake of antioxidants and retinol, we evaluated the validity and reproducibility of a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire.

METHODS

Data were collected from 110 women, aged 15-54 years, who resided in the southern part of Mexico City. Study participants were asked to complete the food frequency questionnaire before and after completing four series of 4 days of 24-h diet recalls. We obtained the 24-h recalls at 3-month intervals designed to account for seasonal variability. In addition, we measured serum blood levels of retinol and various carotenoids at 3 and 9 months after baseline.

RESULTS

Intraclass correlation coefficients for intake of energy-adjusted daily nutrients, assessed by the questionnaires 1 year apart, ranged from 0.23 for lutein/zeaxanthin to 0.50 for total carotenes. Correlation coefficients between energy-adjusted nutrient intakes were measured by means of the sixteen 24-h dietary recalls, and the second questionnaire ranged from 0.09 for lutein/zeaxanthin to 0.45 for total carotenes. These correlations were higher after adjusting for day-to-day variations in diets ranging from 0.11 for lutein/zeaxanthin to 0.49 for vitamin C. Correlation coefficients between intake and biochemical measures were 0.32 for alpha-carotene, 0.34 for beta-carotene, and 0.40 for total carotene after adjusting for age, body mass index, cholesterol and triglyceride plasma levels, smoking status, and caloric intake.

CONCLUSIONS

These data support the ability of our food frequency questionnaire to provide valid information on the relative intake of these nutrients and to confirm its usefulness in epidemiological studies of diet-disease relations. However, its application outside Mexico City or in different age or gender populations will require additional modifications and validation efforts.

Lower prostate cancer risk in men with elevated plasma lycopene levels: results of a prospective analysis

Dietary consumption of the carotenoid lycopene (mostly from tomato products) has been associated with a lower risk of prostate cancer. Evidence relating other carotenoids, tocopherols, and retinol to prostate cancer risk has been equivocal. This prospective study was designed to examine the relationship between plasma concentrations of several major antioxidants and risk of prostate cancer. We conducted a nested case-control study using plasma samples obtained in 1982 from healthy men enrolled in the Physicians' Health Study, a randomized, placebo-controlled trial of aspirin and beta-carotene. Subjects included 578 men who developed prostate cancer within 13 years of follow-up and 1294 age- and smoking status-matched controls. We quantified the five major plasma carotenoid peaks (alpha- and beta-carotene, beta-cryptoxanthin, lutein, and lycopene) plus alpha- and gamma-tocopherol and retinol using high-performance liquid chromatography. Results for plasma beta-carotene are reported separately. Odds ratios (ORs), 95% confidence intervals (Cls), and Ps for trend were calculated for each quintile of plasma antioxidant using logistic regression models that allowed for adjustment of potential confounders and estimation of effect modification by assignment to either active beta-carotene or placebo in the trial. Lycopene was the only antioxidant found at significantly lower mean levels in cases than in matched controls (P = 0.04 for all cases). The ORs for all prostate cancers declined slightly with increasing quintile of plasma lycopene (5th quintile OR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.54-1.06; P, trend = 0.12); there was a stronger inverse association for aggressive prostate cancers (5th quintile OR = 0.56, 95% CI = 0.34-0.91; P, trend = 0.05). In the placebo group, plasma lycopene was very strongly related to lower prostate cancer risk (5th quintile OR = 0.40; P, trend = 0.006 for aggressive cancer), whereas there was no evidence for a trend among those assigned to beta-carotene supplements. However, in the beta-carotene group, prostate cancer risk was reduced in each lycopene quintile relative to men with low lycopene and placebo. The only other notable association was a reduced risk of aggressive cancer with higher alpha-tocopherol levels that was not statistically significant. None of the associations for lycopene were confounded by age, smoking, body mass index, exercise, alcohol, multivitamin use, or plasma total cholesterol level. These results concur with a recent prospective dietary analysis, which identified lycopene as the carotenoid with the clearest inverse relation to the development of prostate cancer. The inverse association was particularly apparent for aggressive cancer and for men not consuming beta-carotene supplements. For men with low lycopene, beta-carotene supplements were associated with risk reductions comparable to those observed with high lycopene. These data provide further evidence that increased consumption of tomato products and other lycopene-containing foods might reduce the occurrence or progression of prostate cancer.

Menstrual factors in relation to breast cancer risk

We evaluated menstrual factors in relation to breast cancer risk in a large, population-based, case-control study. Case women were ascertained through state-wide registries covering Wisconsin, Western Massachusetts, Maine, and New Hampshire; control women were randomly selected from driver's license and Medicare lists in each state. Information regarding menstrual characteristics was obtained through a telephone interview. The study population comprised 6888 breast cancer cases and 9529 control women. Because exogenous hormones influence menstrual cycle patterns, we repeated our analyses in a subgroup of women who had never used oral contraceptives or hormone replacement therapy. Our results indicate decreased breast cancer risk with menarcheal age of 15 years or more, relative to menarche at age 13; the relation was stronger among premenopausal [odds ratio (OR), 0.72; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.57-0.91] as opposed to postmenopausal women (OR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.80-1.03). Risk was slightly reduced among premenopausal women whose menstrual cycles did not become regular until at least 5 years after onset of menses, relative to those whose cycles became regular within 1 year (OR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.63-1.02). There was no clear relation between breast cancer risk and irregular menstrual cycles, episodes of amenorrhea, or menstrual cycle length. Early menopause, whether natural or surgical, was associated with decreased breast cancer risk; surgical menopause before age 40 conferred the strongest protective effect (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.47-0.71). We found no evidence of increased risk with late natural menopause (OR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.80-1.06). Results in the subgroup of women who never used exogenous hormones were similar to those for the entire group.

Use of toenail fluoride levels as an indicator for the risk of hip and forearm fractures in women

The relation between fluoride intake and risk of osteoporotic fractures remains unclear. The lack of individual measures of long-term fluoride intake has limited epidemiologic studies. We used toenail fluoride in this study as a measure of long-term intake to evaluate the relation between fluoride intake and subsequent risk of hip and distal forearm fractures. Between 1982 and 1984, we collected toenail clippings from 62,641 women in the Nurses' Health Study who were free from cancer, heart disease, stroke, and previous hip or forearm fracture. We identified fracture cases (53 proximal femur and 188 distal forearm) through subsequent biennial mailed questionnaires and matched controls to cases on year of birth. The odds ratio of hip fracture among women in the highest quartile of toenail fluoride [ > 5.50 parts per million (ppm)], compared with those in the lowest quartile (> 2.00 ppm), was 0.8 (95% confidence interval = 0.2-4.0), with adjustment for menopausal status, postmenopausal hormone use, caffeine intake, and alcohol consumption. The corresponding adjusted odds ratio for forearm fracture was 1.6 (95% confidence interval = 0.8-3.1). Further adjustment for body mass index, smoking status, and calcium and vitamin D intake did not alter these results.

Exposure to breast milk in infancy and adult breast cancer risk

BACKGROUND

There is considerable interest in the possibility of an infectious etiology for human breast cancer. Although studies have shown that certain strains of mice transmit mammary tumor virus via breast milk, few epidemiologic studies have addressed this topic in humans.

METHODS

We evaluated the relationship between having been breast-fed as an infant and breast cancer risk among 8299 women who participated in a population-based, case-control study of breast cancer in women aged 50 years or more. Case women were identified through cancer registries in three states (Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin); control women were identified through statewide driver's license lists (age <65 years) or Medicare lists (ages 65-79 years). Information on epidemiologic risk factors was obtained through telephone interview. We used multiple logistic regression to assess having been breast-fed and maternal history of breast cancer in relation to breast cancer occurrence both in premenopausal women (205 case women; 220 control women) and in postmenopausal women (3803 case women; 4071 control women).

RESULTS

We found no evidence that having been breast-fed increased breast cancer risk in either premenopausal women (odds ratio [OR] = 0.65; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.41-1.04) or postmenopausal women (OR = 0.95; 95% CI = 0.85-1.07). In addition, breast cancer risk was not increased by having been breast-fed by a mother who later developed breast cancer.

CONCLUSION

Our results do not support the hypothesis that a transmissible agent in breast milk increases breast cancer risk. Because premenopausal women were not well represented in our study population, our findings with regard to this group may not be generalizable and should be viewed with caution.

Randomised trial of effects of vitamin supplements on pregnancy outcomes and T cell counts in HIV-1-infected women in Tanzania

BACKGROUND

In HIV-1-infected women, poor micronutrient status has been associated with faster progression of HIV-1 disease and adverse birth outcomes. We assessed the effects of vitamin A and multivitamins on birth outcomes in such women.

METHODS

In Tanzania, 1075 HIV-1-infected pregnant women at between 12 and 27 weeks' gestation received placebo (n=267), vitamin A (n=269), multivitamins excluding vitamin A (n=269), or multivitamins including vitamin A (n=270) in a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial with a 2x2 factorial design. We measured the effects of multivitamins and vitamin A on birth outcomes and counts of T lymphocyte subsets. We did analyses by intention to treat.

RESULTS

30 fetal deaths occurred among women assigned multivitamins compared with 49 among those not on multivitamins (relative risk 0.61 [95% CI 0.39-0.94] p=0.02). Multivitamin supplementation decreased the risk of low birthweight (<2500 g) by 44% (0.56 [0.38-0.82] p=0.003), severe preterm birth (<34 weeks of gestation) by 39% (0.61 [0.38-0.96] p=0.03), and small size for gestational age at birth by 43% (0.57 [0.39-0.82] p=0.002). Vitamin A supplementation had no significant effect on these variables. Multivitamins, but not vitamin A, resulted in a significant increase in CD4, CD8, and CD3 counts.

INTERPRETATION

Multivitamin supplementation is a low-cost way of substantially decreasing adverse pregnancy outcomes and increasing T-cell counts in HIV-1-infected women. The clinical relevance of our findings for vertical transmission and clinical progression of HIV-1 disease is yet to be ascertained.

Validity and reproducibility of a food frequency questionnaire to assess dietary intake of women living in Mexico City

OBJECTIVE

To assess the reproducibility and validity of a 116 item semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire (FFQ), designed to assess the relation between dietary intake and chronic diseases.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

To test the reproducibility of the FFQ questionnaire, the FFQ was administered twice to 134 women residing in Mexico City at an interval of approximately one year; to assess the validity we compared results obtained by the FFQs with those obtained by four 4-day 24-hour recalls at three month intervals. Validity and reproducibility were evaluated using regression analysis and Pearson and intraclass correlation coefficients of log-e and calorie-adjusted nutrient scores.

RESULTS

Mean values for intake of most nutrients assessed by the two food frequency questionnaires were similar. However, means for the 24-hr recall were significantly lower. Intraclass correlation coefficients for nutrient intakes, assessed by questionnaires, administered one year apart, ranged from 0.38 for cholesterol to 0.54 for crude fiber. Correlation coefficients between energy-adjusted nutrient intakes, measured by diet recalls, and the first FFQ ranged from 0.12 for polyunsaturated fatty acids to 0.67 for saturated fatty acids. Regression coefficients between 24-hr recall and FFQ,s were all significant were significant for all nutrients, except for polyunsaturated fat, folic acid, vitamin E and Zinc.

CONCLUSIONS

These data indicate that this semi-quantitative FFQ is reproducible and provides a useful estimate by which to categorize individuals by level of past nutrient intake. However, its application outside Mexico City or in different age and gender populations will require additional modifications and validation efforts.

Predictors of weight change in men: results from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study

OBJECTIVE

Since the prevalence of adult obesity is increasing in the United States, we examined the effect of changing common habits (exercise, TV viewing, smoking and eating habits) on four year change in body weight.

DESIGN

A prospective cohort study of US male health professionals with follow-up from 1988-1992. Participants were 19478 men aged 40-75 in 1986, who were free of cancer, coronary heart disease, stroke and diabetes.

METHODS

Multiple regression was used to determine the association between four year change in body weight (from 1988-1992) and common habits, after adjusting for baseline age, hypertension and hypercholesterolemia.

RESULTS

For middle aged men, vigorous activity was associated with weight reduction and TV/VCR viewing and eating between meals with weight gain. Quitting smoking and a history of voluntary weight loss prior to the study period were consistently related to weight increase. Recently being on a diet was more strongly associated with weight loss among older men. Over the four year follow-up period, middle-aged men who increased their exercise, decreased TV viewing and stopped eating between meals, lost an average weight of -1.4 kg (95% confidence interval (CI) -1.6 - -1.1 kg), compared to a weight gain of 1.4 kg among the overall population. The prevalence of obesity among middle-aged men was lowest among those who maintained a relatively high level of vigorous physical activity, compared to those who were relatively sedentary.

CONCLUSION

These data suggest that improvement in the mix of health habits, particularly increasing vigorous activity, as well as decreasing TV use and changing eating habits, results in weight maintenance or a modest weight loss over four years.

A prospective study of association of monounsaturated fat and other types of fat with risk of breast cancer

BACKGROUND

Animal studies suggest that monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fat may have opposite effects on the risk of breast cancer.

METHODS

We performed a population-based prospective cohort study, including 61,471 women aged 40 to 76 years from 2 counties in central Sweden who did not have any previous diagnosis of cancer; 674 cases of invasive breast cancer occurred during an average follow-up of 4.2 years. All subjects answered a validated 67-item food frequency questionnaire at baseline. Cox proportional hazards models were used to obtain adjusted rate ratio (RR) estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

After mutual adjustment of different types of fat, an inverse association with monounsaturated fat and a positive association with polyunsaturated fat were found. The RR for each 10-g increment in daily intake of monounsaturated fat was 0.45 (95% CI, 0.22-0.95), whereas the RR for a 5-g increment of polyunsaturated fat was 1.69 (95% CI, 1.02-2.78); the increments correspond to approximately 2 SDs of intake in the population. Comparing the highest quartile of intake with the lowest, we found an RR of 0.8 (95% CI, 0.5-1.2) for monounsaturated fat and 1.2 (95% CI, 0.9-1.6) for polyunsaturated fat. Saturated fat was not associated with the risk of breast cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that various types of fat may have specific opposite effects on the risk of breast cancer that closely resemble the corresponding effects in experimental animals. Research investigations and health policy considerations should take into account the emerging evidence that monounsaturated fat might be protective for risk of breast cancer.

Body anthropometry and the risk of hip and wrist fractures in men: results from a prospective study

Available epidemiological information on the associations between body anthropometry and the incidence of fractures in men is limited. We therefore prospectively investigated the association between body anthropometry and the incidence of hip and wrist fractures from low and moderate trauma among 43,053 men who were 40 years to 75 years of age in 1986 when they first enrolled in the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study. After 8 years of follow-up, 201 wrist fracture cases and 56 hip fracture cases were reported. Greater height was associated with significant elevations in both hip and wrist fractures, whereas nonsignificant inverse associations were observed with weight and body mass index. Men in the highest quintile of waist circumference had a relative risk (RR) of 2.57 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64 to 10.3) for hip fracture and 2.05 (95% CI 1.06 to 3.96) for wrist fracture when compared with men in the lowest quintile. Waist-to-hip ratio was also positively related to fracture incidence; comparing highest with lowest quintile, the RRs were 3.92 (95% CI 1.07 to 14.3) for hip fracture and 1.50 (95% CI 0.85 to 2.66) for wrist fracture. These anthropometric indicators, in particular waist-to-hip ratio, may be useful for the prediction of hip fracture in adult men.

Non-dietary factors as risk factors for breast cancer, and as effect modifiers of the association of fat intake and risk of breast cancer

To assess more precisely the relative risks associated with established risk factors for breast cancer, and whether the association between dietary fat and breast cancer risk varies according to levels of these risk factors, we pooled primary data from six prospective studies in North America and Western Europe in which individual estimates of dietary fat intake had been obtained by validated food-frequency questionnaires. Based on information from 322,647 women among whom 4,827 cases occurred during follow-up: the multivariate-adjusted risk of late menarche (age 15 years or more compared with under 12) was 0.72 (95 percent confidence interval [CI] = 0.62-0.82); of being postmenopausal was 0.82 (CI = 0.69-0.97); of high parity (three or more births compared with none) was 0.72 (CI = 0.61-0.86); of late age at first birth (over 30 years of age compared with 20 or under) was 1.46 (CI = 1.22-1.75); of benign breast disease was 1.53 (CI = 1.41-1.65); of maternal history of breast cancer was 1.38 (CI = 1.14-1.67); and history of a sister with breast cancer was 1.47 (CI = 1.27-1.70). Greater duration of schooling (more than high-school graduation compared with less than high-school graduation) was associated significantly with higher risk in age-adjusted analyses, but was attenuated after controlling for other risk factors. Total fat intake (adjusted for energy consumption) was not associated significantly with breast cancer risk in any strata of these non-dietary risk factors. We observed a marginally significant interaction between total fat intake and risk of breast cancer according to history of benign breast disease; with fat intake being associated nonsignificantly positively with risk among women with a previous history of benign breast disease; no other significant interactions were observed. Risks for reproductive factors were similar to those observed in case-control studies; relative risks for family history of breast cancer were lower. We found no clear evidence in any subgroups of a major relation between total energy-adjusted fat intake and breast cancer risk.

Determinants of age at menarche as early life predictors of breast cancer risk

Age at menarche is one of the few established risk factors for breast cancer; identification of its exogenous determinants could throw light on the origins of breast cancer. We have undertaken an epidemiologic study in Greece to ascertain whether: 1) energy intake, an indicator of physical activity, is associated with later age at menarche; 2) energy-adjusted fat intake is related to earlier age at menarche; and 3) other macronutrients and anthropometric variables are predictors of age at menarche. Anthropometric, socio-economic, familiar, nutritional and lifestyle predictors of age at menarche were studied by interviewing in person 345 female students 9 to 16 years old attending 8 schools of Greater Athens. Menarche was the outcome variable in a proportional hazards model assessing the mutually adjusted incidence rate ratio by a series of predictor variables. In a complementary analysis, age at menarche was the dependent variable among menstruating girls. Consistent results were derived from the main and the complementary analysis. Increased height and body mass index accelerate the occurrence of menarche. Maternal and daughter's ages at menarche are correlated, but there is no evidence of an association with paternal education. Various measures of moderate physical activity as well as increased total energy intake were associated with a delay in age at menarche. Energy-adjusted macronutrients were not associated with age at menarche. It appears that an alteration of energy balance in early life through increased physical activity could delay age at menarche and reduce the risk for breast cancer in later life.

Lack of effect of long-term supplementation with beta carotene on the incidence of malignant neoplasms and cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND

Observational studies suggest that people who consume more fruits and vegetables containing beta carotene have somewhat lower risks of cancer and cardiovascular disease, and earlier basic research suggested plausible mechanisms. Because large randomized trials of long duration were necessary to test this hypothesis directly, we conducted a trial of beta carotene supplementation.

METHODS

In a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of beta carotene (50 mg on alternate days), we enrolled 22,071 male physicians, 40 to 84 years of age, in the United States; 11 percent were current smokers and 39 percent were former smokers at the beginning of the study in 1982. By December 31, 1995, the scheduled end of the study, fewer than 1 percent had been lost to follow-up, and compliance was 78 percent in the group that received beta carotene.

RESULTS

Among 11,036 physicians randomly assigned to receive beta carotene and 11,035 assigned to receive placebo, there were virtually no early or late differences in the overall incidence of malignant neoplasms or cardiovascular disease, or in overall mortality. In the beta carotene group, 1273 men had any malignant neoplasm (except nonmelanoma skin cancer), as compared with 1293 in the placebo group (relative risk, 0.98; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.91 to 1.06). There were also no significant differences in the number of cases of lung cancer (82 in the beta carotene group vs. 88 in the placebo group); the number of deaths from cancer (386 vs. 380), deaths from any cause (979 vs. 968), or deaths from cardiovascular disease (338 vs. 313); the number of men with myocardial infarction (468 vs. 489); the number with stroke (367 vs. 382); or the number with any one of the previous three end points (967 vs. 972). Among current and former smokers, there were also no significant early or late differences in any of these end points.

CONCLUSIONS

In this trial among healthy men, 12 years of supplementation with beta carotene produced neither benefit nor harm in terms of the incidence of malignant neoplasms, cardiovascular disease, or death from all causes.

A prospective study of folate and vitamin B6 and risk of myocardial infarction in US physicians

OBJECTIVE

To assess prospectively the risk of myocardial infarction (MI) associated with decreased plasma levels of folate and pyridoxal phosphate (PLP, a form of vitamin B6) in relation to elevated levels of total homocysteine (tHcy).

DESIGN

Nested case-control study using prospectively collected blood samples.

SETTING

Participants in the Physicians' Health Study.

SUBJECTS

14,916 male physicians, aged 40-84 years, with no prior MI or stroke provided plasma samples at baseline and were followed for 7.5 years. Samples from 333 men who subsequently developed MI, and their paired controls matched by age and smoking, were analyzed for folate and PLP levels.

MEASURES OF OUTCOME

Acute MI or death due to coronary disease.

RESULTS

In a model controlling for diabetes, angina, hypertension, Quetelet's index, and total/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, men with the lowest 20% of folate levels (< 2.0 ng/mL) had a relative risk of 1.4 (95% confidence interval 0.9-2.3) compared with those in the top 80%. For the lowest 20% of vitamin B6 values, the relative risk was 1.5 (95% CI: 1.0-2.2). When we included both folate and B6 in a model with cardiovascular risk factors, the relative risk of MI for low as compared to high levels of folate was 1.3 (95% CI: 0.8-2.1) and for PLP, 1.3 (95% CI: 0.9-2.1). Adding tHcy to this model did not add significant predictive value (chi sq = 2.0, p > 0.05), except in the first half of the follow-up interval when men with the top 5% of tHcy values had an almost three-fold increase in risk of MI.

CONCLUSIONS

Although not statistically significant, these prospective data are compatible with the hypothesis that low dietary intake of folate and/or vitamin B6 contribute to risk of MI.

Evaluation of four methods for determining energy intake in young and older women: comparison with doubly labeled water measurements of total energy expenditure

The accuracy and precision of four different food intake assessment methods were evaluated in young and older women by comparing reported energy intakes with doubly labeled water measurements total energy expenditure (TEE). A study lasting 8 d was conducted in 10 young women aged 25.2+/-1.1 y (-x+/-SEM) and in 10 older women aged 74.0+/-1.4 y. Free-living TEE was measured over 7 d and food consumption was determined from weighed food intake data (7 d), a 24-h food recall (in duplicate), and two different food-frequency questionnaires [Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center (FHCRC)/Block and Willett, both in duplicate]. In addition, body composition was determined by using hydrodensitometry, and strenuous physical activity and the extent of dietary restraint were determined by questionnaire. In young women, 24-h recall gave mean energy intakes that were closest to measures of TEE (-0.34+/-3.71 MJ/d compared with TEE, P=0.178), and energy intakes by food-frequency questionnaires were the only intake data that correlated significantly with individual values for TEE (P<0.05). In older women, food-frequency questionnaires gave mean energy intakes that were closest to measured TEE (+0.53+/-2.95 MJ/d with the Willett questionnaire and -1.19+/-3.02 MJ/d with FHCRC/Block questionnaire). No energy intake data from this group correlated significantly with values for TEE. The 7-d weighed dietary intakes were significantly lower than measured TEE in both young and older women (-2.0 MJ/d in young and older women combined, P<0.001), and did not correlate significantly with values for TEE, although they did most closely mirror the mean difference in TEE between the young and older women (2.30 MJ/d for TEE and 2.11 MJ/d for 7-d weighed intake). These data suggest that none of the methods studied gave accurate estimates of the usual energy requirements of individual subjects. In addition, the results suggest that for some types of studies, simple methods for assessing group mean dietary intake may actually give more accurate information than weighed dietary intakes.

Association between protein intake and 1-y weight and height gains in Bangladeshi children aged 3-11 y

We examined 1-y weight and height gains among 238 rural Bangladeshi children aged 3-11 y old to address the hypothesis that dietary protein composition is associated with growth velocity. Energy-adjusted total protein and energy-adjusted protein from sources other than cereal (animal, pulses, and vegetables) were associated with higher weight gains, after adjustment for age, sex, land ownership, diarrhea, acute respiratory infections, other fevers, nutritional status at the beginning of the study, and average body mass index of the mother [daily intake of energy-adjusted noncereal protein (beta +/- SE): 14.2 +/- 6.4 g.y-1.g-1, P = 0.03; total protein: 13.1 +/- 6.3 g.y-1.g-1, P = 0.04; and protein as percent of energy intake: 39.5 +/- 20.2 g.y-1.% of energy from protein-1, P = 0.05]. These findings are compatible with the hypotheses that protein intake may be a limiting factor for weight gain in this population, or that higher protein intake from animal sources (mostly fish) and legumes (lentils and peas) may be accompanied by higher intakes of limiting micronutrients.

Moderate alcohol intake, increased levels of high-density lipoprotein and its subfractions, and decreased risk of myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have suggested that moderate alcohol intake exerts a protective effect against coronary heart disease. Alterations in plasma lipoprotein levels represent one plausible mechanism of this apparent protective effect.

METHODS

We therefore examined the interrelation among alcohol consumption, plasma lipoprotein levels, and the risk of myocardial infarction in 340 patients who had had myocardial infarctions and an equal number of age- and sex-matched controls. The case patients were men or women less than 76 years of age with no history of coronary disease who were discharged from one of six hospitals in the Boston area with a diagnosis of a confirmed myocardial infarction. Alcohol consumption was estimated by means of a food-frequency questionnaire.

RESULTS

We observed a significant inverse association between alcohol consumption and the risk of myocardial infarction (P for trend, < 0.001 after control for known coronary risk factors). In multivariate analyses, the relative risk for the highest intake category (subjects who consumed three or more drinks per day) as compared with the lowest (those who had less than one drink a month) was 0.45 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.26 to 0.80). The levels of total high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL) and its HDL2 and HDL3 subfractions were strongly associated with alcohol consumption (P for trend, < 0.001 for each). The addition of HDL or either of its subfractions to the multivariate model substantially reduced the inverse association between alcohol intake and myocardial infarction, whereas the addition of the other plasma lipid measurements did not materially alter the relation.

CONCLUSIONS

These data confirm the inverse association of moderate alcohol intake with the risk of myocardial infarction and support the view that the effect is mediated, in large part, by increases in both HDL2 and HDL3.

Diet and coronary heart disease: a case-control study in Athens, Greece

We conducted a case-control study in Athens, Greece, between January 1990 and April 1991 to examine the association between diet and coronary heart disease. The case series comprised 329 patients with electrocardiographically confirmed first coronary infarct or a first positive coronary arteriogram, or both, who were admitted to a major teaching hospital during a 16-month period. Controls were 570 patients admitted to the same hospital for minor conditions believed to be unrelated to nutrition. Total energy intake was inversely associated with coronary heart disease risk, a quintile energy increase corresponding to a relative risk of 0.96. After controlling for total energy intake, dietary fat was positively related to coronary heart disease, and total carbohydrates were negatively related to coronary heart disease, the nutrient-specific relative risks for a quintile increase being 1.19 (95% confidence interval = 0.96-1.48) and 0.81 (95% confidence interval = 0.67-0.97), respectively. Major fat components (saturated, monounsaturated, and polyunsaturated fat) did not appear to have differential risk implications for coronary heart disease; however, cooking with margarine was associated with an increased relative risk (1.87; 95% confidence interval = 0.82-4.28). Dietary proteins, cholesterol, and vitamin C were not associated with coronary heart disease.

Obesity. Workshop III. AHA Prevention Conference III. Behavior change and compliance: keys to improving cardiovascular health

The workshop provided the opportunity to discuss issues and develop and integrate ideas. The following recommendations for public policies, education programs, and high-priority research initiatives were developed: Recommendations for Public Policies: Focus on prevention by requiring school programs to emphasize appropriate diet, physical activity, and general health guidance to promote cardiovascular health and prevent disease through federal funding. Provide better access to exercise (city planning, work-site interventions). Influence food availability and accessibility. Influence reimbursement policies for effective early intervention and prevention strategies for obesity. Reevaluate policies for use of drugs in the treatment of obesity. Recommendations for Education Programs: Sponsor scientific workshop to: Define the most appropriate weight standards for prevention and treatment. Identify who should lose weight and why, when, and how. Promote the fact that obesity is an important health risk factor, even at moderate levels, and that excess visceral fat is particularly hazardous. Target health care professionals, consumers, and the media for education about: Nature of obesity as a heterogeneous syndrome. Recommendations for diet, exercise, behavioral interventions, drugs, and surgery. Recognition of special needs of populations of different ethnicity, gender, age, etc. State-of-the-art treatment and treatment programs. High-Priority Research Initiatives: Build better bridges between basic research and treatment/prevention practices. Acknowledge that obesity is a heterogeneous syndrome that may best be characterized as different obesities. Research on defining subtypes. Implications for etiology and treatment. Better characterization of genotypes and phenotypes. Study the effects of weight loss, weight gain,and weight cycling on medical and psychosocial outcomes and mortality.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)