Development and evaluation of nomograms and risk stratification systems to predict the overall survival and cancer-specific survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common type of primary liver cancer, and patients with HCC have a poor prognosis and low survival rates. Establishing a prognostic nomogram is important for predicting the survival of patients with HCC, as it helps to improve the patient's prognosis. This study aimed to develop and evaluate nomograms and risk stratification to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in HCC patients. Data from 10,302 patients with initially diagnosed HCC were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2017. Patients were randomly divided into the training and validation set. Kaplan-Meier survival, LASSO regression, and Cox regression analysis were conducted to select the predictors of OS. Competing risk analysis, LASSO regression, and Cox regression analysis were conducted to select the predictors of CSS. The validation of the nomograms was performed using the concordance index (C-index), the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), Net Reclassification Index (NRI), Discrimination Improvement (IDI), the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curves, and decision curve analyses (DCAs). The results indicated that factors including age, grade, T stage, N stage, M stage, surgery, surgery to lymph node (LN), Alpha-Fetal Protein (AFP), and tumor size were independent predictors of OS, whereas grade, T stage, surgery, AFP, tumor size, and distant lymph node metastasis were independent predictors of CSS. Based on these factors, predictive models were built and virtualized by nomograms. The C-index for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS were 0.788, 0.792, and 0.790. The C-index for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year CSS were 0.803, 0.808, and 0.806. AIC, BIC, NRI, and IDI suggested that nomograms had an excellent predictive performance with no significant overfitting. The calibration curves showed good consistency of OS and CSS between the actual observation and nomograms prediction, and the DCA showed great clinical usefulness of the nomograms. The risk stratification of OS and CSS was built that could perfectly classify HCC patients into three risk groups. Our study developed nomograms and a corresponding risk stratification system predicting the OS and CSS of HCC patients. These tools can assist in patient counseling and guiding treatment decision making.

Cardiometabolic Index (CMI), Lipid Accumulation Products (LAP), Waist Triglyceride Index (WTI) and the risk of acute pancreatitis: a prospective study in adults of North China

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the correlation between anthropometric indexes [cardiometabolic index (CMI), lipid accumulation products (LAP), waist triglyceride index (WTI), and body mass index (BMI)] and acute pancreatitis (AP) in a Chinese adult population.

METHODOLOGY

The present investigation consisted of a prospective group including 117,326 subjects who were enrolled in the Kailuan investigation. The individuals were categorized into quartiles based on their baseline levels of CMI, LAP, and WIT. BMI was categorized into three distinctive groups: normal weight group (BMI < 24 kg/m2), overweight group (BMI 24-28 kg /m2), and obesity group (BMI ≥ 28 kg/m2). The data were subjected to analysis in order to investigate the correlation between these anthropometric indexes and the incidence of AP. Cox regression models were employed to assess the relative risk of AP while accounting for known risk factors through appropriate adjustments.

OUTCOMES

Over the course of a median follow-up duration of 12.59 ± 0.98 years, we documented 401 incident AP cases. Incidence density and cumulative incidence rates of AP increased with the increase of CMI, LAP, and WTI. After multivariate adjustment, the fourth quartile of CMI, LAP, and WTI exhibited the greatest risk of AP [CMI: hazard ratio (HR) 1.93, 95% confidential interval (CI) (1.45-2.57); LAP: HR 2.00, 95% CI(1.49-2.68); WTI: HR 2.13,95% CI (1.59-2.83)]. In comparison to the normal weight group, the obesity group (BMI ≥ 28 kg/m2) had an elevated risk of AP (HR = 1.58, 95% CI: 1.21-2.05). Furthermore, the incremental effect of BMI combined with CMI on the prognostic value of AP was greater than that of BMI alone (the C statistics demonstrated a result of 0.607 versus 0.546; the integrated discrimination improvement revealed a result of 0.321%; net reclassification improvement was 1.975%).

CONCLUSION

We found that CMI, LAP, and WTI were positively and independently connected to the risk of AP. Additionally, CMI demonstrates a superior prognostic capacity than other indexes in anticipating AP.