Predictive nomogram for 28-day mortality risk in mitral valve disorder patients in the intensive care unit: A comprehensive assessment from the MIMIC-III database

BACKGROUND

Mitral valve disorder (MVD) stands as the most prevalent valvular heart disease. Presently, a comprehensive clinical index to predict mortality in MVD remains elusive. The aim of our study is to construct and assess a nomogram for predicting the 28-day mortality risk of MVD patients.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with MVD were identified via ICD-9 code from the MIMIC-III database. Independent risk factors were identified utilizing the LASSO method and multivariate logistic regression to construct a nomogram model aimed at predicting the 28-day mortality risk. The nomogram's performance was assessed through various metrics including the area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, integrated discriminant improvement (IDI), net reclassification improvement (NRI), and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

The study encompassed a total of 2771 patients diagnosed with MVD. Logistic regression analysis identified several independent risk factors: age, anion gap, creatinine, glucose, blood urea nitrogen level (BUN), urine output, systolic blood pressure (SBP), respiratory rate, saturation of peripheral oxygen (SpO2), Glasgow Coma Scale score (GCS), and metastatic cancer. These factors were found to independently influence the 28-day mortality risk among patients with MVD. The calibration curve demonstrated adequate calibration of the nomogram. Furthermore, the nomogram exhibited favorable discrimination in both the training and validation cohorts. The calculations of IDI, NRI, and DCA analyses demonstrate that the nomogram model provides a greater net benefit compared to the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPSII), Acute Physiology Score III (APSIII), and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scoring systems.

CONCLUSION

This study successfully identified independent risk factors for 28-day mortality in patients with MVD. Additionally, a nomogram model was developed to predict mortality, offering potential assistance in enhancing the prognosis for MVD patients. It's helpful in persuading patients to receive early interventional catheterization treatment, for example, transcatheter mitral valve replacement (TMVR), transcatheter mitral valve implantation (TMVI).

Real-world effectiveness of molnupiravir, azvudine and paxlovid against mortality and viral clearance among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 infection during the omicron wave in China: A retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

In this retrospective cohort study, we aimed to assess clinical effectiveness and viral clearance following the use of molnupiravir, azvudine and paxlovid in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in China dominated by the omicron BA.5.2 and BF.7 subvariant of SARS-CoV-2.

METHODS

Enrolled patients were assigned to the molnupiravir group or the azvudine group or the paxlovid group or the control group (not taking any antiviral drugs). The primary outcome of the cohort study was viral clearance and viral burden rebound after treatment and the secondary outcome was 28-day all-cause mortality. The four groups were propensity score-matched (1:1). We plotted viral load trends for each antiviral drug intervention using locally weighted regression (LOWESS) smoothed data. Multivariate logistic regression (stepwise algorithm) models were used to determine any risk factors for 28-day mortality.

RESULTS

Of the 1537 patients receiving any treatment, 886 (57.6 %) received molnupiravir, 390 (25.4 %) received azvudine, 94 (6.1 %) received paxlovid, and 167 (10.9 %) did not use any antiviral drugs. Our data analysis showed that age (OR = 1.05, 95 % CI: 1.03-1.07, P < 0.001), Charlson comorbidty index (OR = 1.32, 95 % CI: 1.18-1.48, P < 0.001), severity of COVID-19 (P < 0.001), gamma globulin (OR = 2.04, 95 % CI: 1.03-3.99, P = 0.039) and corticosteroids use (OR = 2.3, 95 % CI: 1.19-4.69, P = 0.017) were independent prognostic factors for 28-day mortality in COVID-19 patients. After propensity score matching (PSM), the paxlovid recipients (OR = 0.22, 95 % CI: 0.05-0.83, P = 0.036) or azvudine recipients (OR = 0.27, 95 % CI: 0.07-0.91, P = 0.046) had lower 28-day mortality compared to their matched controls. Viral rebound occurred in the control group around days 9-16, while no viral rebound was found in any of the three oral antiviral groups. We found that molnupiravir group performed comparably in terms of the rate of nucleic acid conversion negative compared with the paxlovid group, while azvudine group performed slightly worse compared with the paxlovid group or molnupiravir group.

CONCLUSIONS

In our retrospective cohort of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 during the wave of omicron strain, the molnupiravir, paxlovid and azvudine recipients showed a faster and more stable decrease in viral load and rare virus rebound in response to antiviral treatments when compared to the controls. The study supported that initiation treatment with paxlovid and azvudine was associated with significantly lower risk of all-cause death within 28 days.

Risk factors and management of gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with or without antiplatelet and anticoagulation therapy: a multicenter real-world prospective study

BACKGROUND

Antiplatelet and anticoagulation drugs complicate acute gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) patients. Limited data about the risk factors and patient management has been presented. This study explored the association between previous antiplatelet or anticoagulant drug usage and clinical outcomes in GIB patients to improve awareness further and optimize treatment.

METHODS

We conducted a multicenter, non-interventional, real-world prospective study in 106 hospitals in 23 provinces in China. GIB patients confirmed in the emergency department were included and were grouped according to previous drug histories. Univariate analysis, multivariate logistic regression, and multivariate stratification models were performed separately to investigate the associations.

RESULTS

A total of 2299 patients (57.23 ± 17.21 years old, 68.3% male) were included, of whom 20.1% and 2.9% received antiplatelet and anticoagulation therapy, respectively. The all-cause 28-day mortality rates in patients without antiplatelet or anticoagulants, patients undergoing antiplatelet treatment, and patients with anticoagulation therapy were 2.8%, 4.6%, and 10.5%, respectively. After adjusting for confounding factors, both antiplatelet [odd ratio (OR), 2.92; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.48-5.76; p = 0.002] and anticoagulation therapy (OR, 8.87; 95% CI, 3.02-26.02; p < 0.001) were associated with higher 28-day mortality. In the subgroup analysis, blood transfusion, especially red blood cell transfusion, in patients undergoing antiplatelet and anticoagulation therapy was associated with a decreased death risk.

CONCLUSION

We confirmed an association between concurrent antiplatelet or anticoagulation therapy in GIB patients and elevated 28-day mortality. Blood transfusions could improve poor outcomes in such patients.

Association of serum albumin with heart failure mortality with NYHA class IV in Chinese patients: Insights from PhysioNet database (version 1.3)

BACKGROUND

Studies have proved that low albumin level is associated with increased mortality in most diseases, such as chronic kidney disease and hepatic cirrhosis. However, the relationship between albumin and all-cause death in heart failure patients in China is still unclear.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to investigate the association between albumin level and 28-day mortality in Chinese hospitalized patients with NYHA IV heart failure.

METHODS

A total of 2008 Chinese patients were included. The correlation between serum albumin level and mortality was tested using a cox proportional hazards regression model. The smooth curve fitting was used to identify non-linear relationships between serum albumin and mortality. The Forest plot analysis was used to assess the association between albumin and 28-day mortality in different groups.

RESULTS

Compared with patients with NYHA II-III, patients with NYHA IV had lower albumin level and higher mortality within 28 days. The albumin on admission was independently and inversely associated with the endpoint risk, which remained significant (hazard ratio: 0.80; 95 % confidence interval: 0.66 to 0.96; p = 0.0196) after multivariable adjustment. The smooth curve fitting showed with the increase of albumin, the mortality within 28 days would decrease. A subgroup analysis found that the inverse association between the albumin level and risk of the mortality was consistent across the subgroup stratified by possible influence factors.

CONCLUSION

Serum albumin level is negatively associated with 28-day mortality in hospitalized heart failure patients within NYHA IV in China, which can be used as an independent predictor.

Relationship between lactate-to-albumin ratio and 28-day mortality in patients with exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease admitted to the Intensive Care Unit

AIM

To explore the predictive value of lactate-to-albumin ratio (LAR) on 28-day mortality in patients with exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU).

METHODS

According to ICD-9 and ICD-10 diagnosis codes, patients diagnosed with AECOPD in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (v.2.2) database were selected. The primary endpoint was 28-day mortality after ICU admission. We used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival curve, logistic regression analyses and subgroup analysis to assess predictive power of LAR.

RESULTS

606 patients were included in this study. The 28-day mortality was 29.7%. The area under the ROC curves (AUC) for LAR were 0.641 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.592-0.689], which was comparable with OASIS (AUC: 0.662; 95% CI 0.616-0.709; p = 0.471) and SOFA (AUC: 0.660; 95% CI 0.612-0.708; p = 0.500). The cutoff value of LAR was 0.645 by ROC curve. The high-LAR group showed a bad prognosis in K-M analysis (p < 0.001). Multivariate logistic regression shown that LAR was significantly associated with a poor outcome (odds ratio: 1.77; 95% CI 1.16-2.71; p = 0.008). Subgroup analysis showed no significant interaction of LAR with each subgroup (p for interaction: 0.175-0.775).

CONCLUSION

LAR is a rational and easily accessible marker, which is remarkably associated with 28-day mortality in ICU patients with AECOPD.

Presepsin as a prognostic biomarker in COVID-19 patients: combining clinical scoring systems and laboratory inflammatory markers for outcome prediction

BACKGROUND

There is still limited research on the prognostic value of Presepsin as a biomarker for predicting the outcome of COVID-19 patients. Additionally, research on the combined predictive value of Presepsin with clinical scoring systems and inflammation markers for disease prognosis is lacking.

METHODS

A total of 226 COVID-19 patients admitted to Beijing Youan Hospital's emergency department from May to November 2022 were screened. Demographic information, laboratory measurements, and blood samples for Presepsin levels were collected upon admission. The predictive value of Presepsin, clinical scoring systems, and inflammation markers for 28-day mortality was analyzed.

RESULTS

A total of 190 patients were analyzed, 83 (43.7%) were mild, 61 (32.1%) were moderate, and 46 (24.2%) were severe/critically ill. 23 (12.1%) patients died within 28 days. The Presepsin levels in severe/critical patients were significantly higher compared to moderate and mild patients (p < 0.001). Presepsin showed significant predictive value for 28-day mortality in COVID-19 patients, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.828 (95% CI: 0.737-0.920). Clinical scoring systems and inflammation markers also played a significant role in predicting 28-day outcomes. After Cox regression adjustment, Presepsin, qSOFA, NEWS2, PSI, CURB-65, CRP, NLR, CAR, and LCR were identified as independent predictors of 28-day mortality in COVID-19 patients (all p-values < 0.05). Combining Presepsin with clinical scoring systems and inflammation markers further enhanced the predictive value for patient prognosis.

CONCLUSION

Presepsin is a favorable indicator for the prognosis of COVID-19 patients, and its combination with clinical scoring systems and inflammation markers improved prognostic assessment.

Definitions of major bleeding for predicting mortality in critically ill adult patients who survived 24 hours while supported with peripheral veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation for cardiogenic shock: a comparative historical cohort study

PURPOSE

The severity of bleeding events is heterogeneously defined during peripheral veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (pVA-ECMO). We studied three bleeding definitions in pVA-ECMO: the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization (ELSO)-serious bleeding, the Bleeding Academic Research Consortium (BARC), and the universal definition of postoperative bleeding (UPDB) classifications.

METHODS

We included consecutive adult patients supported by pVA-ECMO for refractory cardiogenic shock admitted to Lille academic hospitals between January 2013 and December 2019. We assessed the association of bleeding definitions with the primary endpoint of 28-day all-cause mortality with the use of multivariate models accounting for time-dependent and competing variables. We compared models' performances using the Harrell's C-Index and the Akaike information criteria.

RESULTS

Twenty-eight-day mortality occurred in 128/308 (42%) 308 patients. The ELSO-serious bleeding (hazard ratio [HR], 1.67; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09 to 2.56) and BARC ≥ type 2 (HR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.01 to 2.37) were associated with 28-day mortality (Harrell's C-index, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.63 to 0.74 for both). Predictors of ELSO-serious bleeding were postcardiotomy, body mass index, baseline platelets count, fibrinogen, and hemoglobin levels.

CONCLUSION

Extracorporeal Life Support Organization-serious bleeding and BARC ≥ type 2 are relevant definitions of major bleeding regarding their association with mortality in critically ill patients who survived the first 24 hr while supported with pVA-ECMO for cardiogenic shock.

STUDY REGISTRATION

CERAR (IRB 00010254-2022-050, Paris, France); first submitted on 18 April 2022.

Prognostic value of time-varying dead space estimates in mechanically ventilated patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome

Background

The dead space fraction (VD/VT) has proven to be a powerful predictor of higher mortality in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). However, its measurement relies on expired carbon dioxide, limiting its widespread application in clinical practice. Several estimates employing routine variables have been found to be reliable substitutes for direct measurement of VD/VT. In this study, we evaluated the prognostic value of these dead space estimates obtained in the first 7 days following the initiation of ventilation.

Methods

This retrospective observational study was conducted using data from the Chinese database in intensive care (CDIC). Eligible participants were adult ARDS patients receiving invasive mechanical ventilation while in the intensive care unit between 1st January 2014 and 31st March 2021. We collected data during the first 7 days of ventilation to calculate various dead space estimates, including ventilatory ratio (VR), corrected minute ventilation (V ˙ Ecorr ), VD/VT (Harris-Benedict), VD/VT (Siddiki estimate), and VD/VT (Penn State estimate) longitudinally. A time-dependent Cox model was used to handle these time-varying estimates.

Results

A total of 392 patients (median age 66 [interquartile range: 55-77] years, median SOFA score 9 [interquartile range: 7-12]) were finally included in our analysis, among whom 132 (33.7%) patients died within 28 days of admission. VR (hazard ratio [HR]=1.04 per 0.1 increase, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01 to 1.06; P=0.013), V ˙ Ecorr (HR=1.08 per 1 increase, 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.12; P < 0.001), VD/VT (Harris-Benedict) (HR=1.25 per 0.1 increase, 95% CI: 1.06 to 1.47; P=0.006), and VD/VT (Penn State estimate) (HR=1.22 per 0.1 increase, 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.44; P=0.017) remained significant after adjustment, while VD/VT (Siddiki estimate) (HR=1.10 per 0.1 increase, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.20; P=0.058) did not. Given a large number of negative values, VD/VT (Siddiki estimate) and VD/VT (Penn State estimate) were not recommended as reliable substitutes. Long-term exposure to VR >1.3, V ˙ Ecorr >7.53, and VD/VT (Harris-Benedict) >0.59 was independently associated with an increased risk of mortality in ARDS patients. These findings were validated in the fluid and catheter treatment trial (FACTT) database.

Conclusions

In cases where VD/VT cannot be measured directly, early time-varying estimates of VD/VT such as VR, V ˙ Ecorr , and VD/VT (Harris-Benedict) can be considered for predicting mortality in ARDS patients, offering a rapid bedside application.

Association between different corticosteroid regimens used in severe SARS-CoV-2 infection and short-term mortality: retrospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, several corticosteroid regimens have been used in the treatment of the disease, with disparate results according to drug and regimen used. For this reason, we wanted to analyze differences in early mortality derived from the use of different regimens of dexamethasone and methylprednisolone in SARS-CoV-2 infection in critically ill patients requiring admission to an ICU.

METHOD

Observational, analytical and retrospective study, in an intensive care unit of a third-level university hospital, (March 2020 and June 2021). Adult patients (>18 years old) who were admitted consecutively for proven SARS-CoV-2 infection were included. The association with mortality in ICU at 28 days, different corticosteroid regimens used, was analyzed using a Cox proportional risk regression model.

RESULTS

Data from a cohort of 539 patients were studied. Patient age (RR: 1.06; 95% CI: 1.02-1.10; P=<0.01) showed a significant association with 28-day mortality in the ICU. In the comparison of the different corticosteroid regimens analyzed, taking as a reference those patients who did not receive corticosteroid treatment, the dose of dexamethasone of 6mg/day showed a clear trend towards statistical significance as a protector of mortality at 28 days in the ICU (RR: 0.40, 95% CI: 0.15-1.02, p=0.05). The dose of dexamethasone of 6mg/day and low doses of methylprednisolone show a similar association with survival at 28 days (OR: 1.19; 95% CI: 0.63-2.26).

CONCLUSIONS

The use of corticosteroids has been associated with better mortality outcomes in severe cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, the therapeutic benefits of corticosteroids are not limited to dexamethasone alone.

Acute on Chronic Liver Failure: Lessons from a Decade of EASL-CLIF Definition and Scoring Systems

How to cite this article: Solao V. Acute on Chronic Liver Failure: Lessons from a Decade of EASL-CLIF Definition and Scoring Systems. Indian J Crit Care Med 2024;28(2):100-102.

Clinical Profile, Short-term Prognostic Accuracies of CLIF-C ACLF Score and Serial CLIF-C OF Scores in Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure Patients: A Prospective Observational Study

Background

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a recently defined entity that carries high short-term mortality. The European Association for Study of Liver (EASL) has given a different definition for ACLF and derived two scores called Chronic Liver Failure-Consortium Organ Failure (CLIF-C OF) and CLIF-C ACLF to diagnose and predict the short-term outcome, respectively.

Materials and methods

This was the prospective observational study, included 40 ACLF patients diagnosed as per the EASL definition and calculated CLIF-C ACLF as well as other scores (CTP, MELD, MELD-Na, CLIF-C OF) on admission. Serial CLIF-C OF scores were also calculated (Day 3 and Day 7). The 28-day and 90-day mortality was recorded.

Results

Alcohol was the predominant etiology of cirrhosis (32 patients-80%). Infection was the chief precipitating factor in 19 patients (47.5%). The 28-day and 90-day mortality was 45% and 52.5%. Mean (SD) of CLIF-C ACLF scores of survivors and non-survivors on Day-90 were 44.11(6.62) and 53.86 (7.83). The prognostic accuracy of the CLIF-C ACLF score (Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve-AUROC) to predict 28-day and 90-day mortality was 0.86 and 0.84, respectively. MELD-Na and CLIF-C ACLF scores had higher AUROC for predicting 28-day and 90-day mortality, respectively. The AUROC of the CLIF-C OF score on Day 3 was found to be higher than the values of Day 1 and Day 7, but it was not statistically significant.

Conclusion

CLIF-C ACLF has good short-term prognostic accuracy and it is as good as other available scores. Serial CLIF-C OF scores were equally good in predicting in short-term mortality.

How to cite this article

Hareesh GJ, Ramadoss R. Clinical Profile, Short-term Prognostic Accuracies of CLIF-C ACLF Score and Serial CLIF-C OF Scores in Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure Patients: A Prospective Observational Study. Indian J Crit Care Med 2024;28(2):126-133.

Association between serum sodium and 28-day mortality in sepsis patients: A secondary data analysis from three large critical illness cohorts

OBJECTIVE

The present study was designed to explore the association between serum sodium and mortality in patients with sepsis by using a large sample, multicenter MIMIC-IV database.

METHODS

We extracted the data of 34 925 sepsis patients from the retrospective cohort mimicIV database. After adjusting the confounders, we explored the independent effects of serum sodium on 28-day mortality.

RESULTS

A nonlinear relationship existed between serum sodium and 28-day mortality, of which a negative association was found between serum sodium and 28-day mortality (odds ratio: 0.95, 95% CI: 0.94, 0.96, p = 0.0001) when serum sodium was in 102 mmol/L to 138 mmol/L, but a positive correlation appeared when sodium climbed to the range of 140-179 mmol/L (odds ratio: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.03-1.06, p = 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Both lower and higher serum sodium levels are associated with an increased risk of death in sepsis patients.

A dynamic nomogram for predicting 28-day mortality in septic shock: a Chinese retrospective cohort study

Background

Septic shock is a severe life-threatening disease, and the mortality of septic shock in China was approximately 37.3% that lacks prognostic prediction model. This study aimed to develop and validate a prediction model to predict 28-day mortality for Chinese patients with septic shock.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study enrolled patients from Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of the Second Affiliated Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University between December 2020 and September 2021. We collected patients' clinical data: demographic data and physical condition data on admission, laboratory data on admission and treatment method. Patients were randomly divided into training and testing sets in a ratio of 7:3. Univariate logistic regression was adopted to screen for potential predictors, and stepwise regression was further used to screen for predictors in the training set. Prediction model was constructed based on these predictors. A dynamic nomogram was performed based on the results of prediction model. Using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve to assess predicting performance of dynamic nomogram, which were compared with Sepsis Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) systems.

Results

A total of 304 patients with septic shock were included, with a 28-day mortality of 25.66%. Systolic blood pressure, cerebrovascular disease, Na, oxygenation index (PaO2/FiO2), prothrombin time, glucocorticoids, and hemodialysis were identified as predictors for 28-day mortality in septic shock patients, which were combined to construct the predictive model. A dynamic nomogram (https://zhijunxu.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp/) was developed. The dynamic nomogram model showed a good discrimination with area under the ROC curve of 0.829 in the training set and 0.825 in the testing set. Additionally, the study suggested that the dynamic nomogram has a good predictive value than SOFA and APACHE II.

Conclusion

The dynamic nomogram for predicting 28-day mortality in Chinese patients with septic shock may help physicians to assess patient survival and optimize personalized treatment strategies for septic shock.

Predictive value of soluble CD40L combined with APACHE II score in elderly patients with sepsis in the emergency department

BACKGROUND

The prognostic performance of soluble CD40L (sCD40L) for illness severity in infectious diseases is rarely reported. We investigated the ability of sCD40L combined with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score to evaluate mortality in septic patients in the emergency department(ED).

METHODS

We enrolled 222 septic patients in the ED of Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital from October 2020 to April 2021. Their serum sCD40L, PCT, lactate (Lac), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score were used to predict the prognosis of septic patients in terms of 28-day mortality. Serum sCD40L was detected by Human XL Cytokine Luminex. Logistic regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to assess the prognostic value of the variables.

RESULTS

One hundred ninety-five patients met the inclusion criteria, divided into survival group (55 cases) and non-survival group (140 cases). sCD40L, PCT, Lac, SOFA and APACHE II score were found to independently predict 28-day mortality (P < 0.05). The AUC values of sCD40L, PCT, Lac, SOFA and APACHE II score were 0.662,0.727,0.704, 0.719 and 0.716, respectively. There was no difference in the diagnostic value of sCD40L compared with the PCT, Lac, SOFA score or APACHE II score (Z1 = 1.19, P = 0.234; Z2 = 0.77, P = 0.441; Z3 = 1.05, P = 0.294; Z4 = 0.97, P = 0.332). However, the combined evaluation of sCD40L + APACHE II (AUC:0.772, Z = 2.10, P = 0.036) was much better than sCD40L alone in predicting 28-day mortality.

CONCLUSION

The predictive value of sCD40L + APACHE II is better than sCD40L alone for 28-day mortality. sCD40L combined with APACHE II score is valuable for predicting 28-day mortality in elderly patients with sepsis.

Identifying vital sign trajectories to predict 28-day mortality of critically ill elderly patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome

BACKGROUND

The mortality rate of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) increases with age (≥ 65 years old) in critically ill patients, and it is necessary to prevent mortality in elderly patients with ARDS in the intensive care unit (ICU). Among the potential risk factors, dynamic subphenotypes of respiratory rate (RR), heart rate (HR), and respiratory rate-oxygenation (ROX) and their associations with 28-day mortality have not been clearly explored.

METHODS

Based on the eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD), this study used a group-based trajectory model to identify longitudinal subphenotypes of RR, HR, and ROX during the first 72 h of ICU stays. A logistic model was used to evaluate the associations of trajectories with 28-day mortality considering the group with the lowest rate of mortality as a reference. Restricted cubic spline was used to quantify linear and nonlinear effects of static RR-related factors during the first 72 h of ICU stays on 28-day mortality. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to assess the prediction models with the Delong test.

RESULTS

A total of 938 critically ill elderly patients with ARDS were involved with five and 5 trajectories of RR and HR, respectively. A total of 204 patients fit 4 ROX trajectories. In the subphenotypes of RR, when compared with group 4, the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of group 3 were 2.74 (1.48-5.07) (P = 0.001). Regarding the HR subphenotypes, in comparison to group 1, the ORs and 95% CIs were 2.20 (1.19-4.08) (P = 0.012) for group 2, 2.70 (1.40-5.23) (P = 0.003) for group 3, 2.16 (1.04-4.49) (P = 0.040) for group 5. Low last ROX had a higher mortality risk (P linear = 0.023, P nonlinear = 0.010). Trajectories of RR and HR improved the predictive ability for 28-day mortality (AUC increased by 2.5%, P = 0.020).

CONCLUSIONS

For RR and HR, longitudinal subphenotypes are risk factors for 28-day mortality and have additional predictive enrichment, whereas the last ROX during the first 72 h of ICU stays is associated with 28-day mortality. These findings indicate that maintaining the health dynamic subphenotypes of RR and HR in the ICU and elevating static ROX after initial critical care may have potentially beneficial effects on prognosis in critically ill elderly patients with ARDS.

Association of autoimmune diseases with the occurrence and 28-day mortality of sepsis: an observational and Mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

Observational studies have indicated a potential association between autoimmune diseases and the occurrence of sepsis, with an increased risk of mortality among affected patients. However, whether a causal relationship exists between the two remains unknown.

METHODS

In the Mendelian randomization (MR) study, we accessed exposure Genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from both the MRC Integrative Epidemiology Unit (MRC-IEU) and the FinnGen consortium. GWAS data for sepsis and its 28-day mortality were obtained from MRC-IEU. We employed univariable, multivariable, and reverse MR analyses to explore potential associations between autoimmune disorders and sepsis and its 28-day mortality. Additionally, a two-step mediation MR analysis was performed to investigate indirect factors possibly influencing the relationship between autoimmune disorders and sepsis. Afterward, we conducted an observational analysis to further explore the relationship between autoimmune disease and occurrence as well as 28-day mortality of sepsis using a real-world database (the MIMIC-IV database). A cohort of 2537 patients diagnosed with autoimmune disease were extracted from the database for analysis. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to confirm the association between autoimmune diseases and the occurrence of sepsis, as well as the 28-day mortality associated with sepsis.

RESULTS

In univariable MR analysis, there appeared to be causal relationships between genetically predicted type 1 diabetes (OR = 1.036, 95% CI = 1.023-1.048, p = 9.130E-09), rheumatoid arthritis (OR = 1.077, 95% CI = 1.058-1.097, p = 1.00E-15) and sepsis, while a potential causal link was observed between celiac disease and sepsis (OR = 1.013, 95% CI = 1.002-1.024, p = 0.026). In a subsequent multivariable MR analysis, only rheumatoid arthritis was found to be independently associated with the risk of sepsis (OR = 1.138, 95% CI = 1.044-1.240, p = 3.36E-03). Furthermore, there was no causal link between autoimmune disorders and 28-day mortality from sepsis. In reverse MR analysis, sepsis was suggested to potentially trigger the onset of psoriasis (OR = 1.084, 95% CI = 1.040-1.131, p = 1.488E-04). In the real-world observational study, adjusting for multiple confounders, rheumatoid arthritis (OR = 1.34, 95% CI = 1.11-1.64, p = 0.003) and multiple sclerosis (OR = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.03-1.68, p = 0.02) were associated with a higher risk of sepsis. In addition, we did not find that autoimmune diseases were associated with 28-day mortality from sepsis.

CONCLUSION

Both in observational and MR analysis, only rheumatoid arthritis is highly correlated with occurrence of sepsis. However, autoimmune disease was not associated with an increased 28-day mortality in patient with sepsis. Sepsis may increase the risk of developing psoriasis.

Early treatment response to piperacillin/tazobactam in patients with bloodstream infections caused by non-ESBL ampicillin/sulbactam-resistant Escherichia coli: a binational cohort study

PURPOSE

This study aimed to compare treatment outcomes for bloodstream infections (BSI) caused by a piperacillin/tazobactam (PIP/TAZ)-susceptible E. coli among three patient groups: BSI caused by ampicillin/sulbactam (AMP/SLB)-resistant isolates treated with PIP/TAZ, BSI caused by AMP/SLB-sensitive isolates treated with PIP/TAZ, and BSI caused by AMP/SLB-resistant isolates treated with another monotherapy.

METHODS

This retrospective study was conducted in two academic centres in Europe. Adult patients with E. coli BSI were screened from 2014 to 2020. Inclusion criteria were non-ESBL BSI and initial monotherapy for ≥ 72 h. To reduce the expected bias between the patient groups, propensity score matching was performed. The primary outcome was early treatment response after 72 h and required absence of SOFA score increase in ICU/IMC patients, as well as resolution of fever, leukocytosis, and bacteraemia.

RESULTS

Of the 1707 patients screened, 315 (18.5%) were included in the final analysis. Urinary tract infection was the most common source of BSI (54.9%). Monotherapies other than PIP/TAZ were cephalosporins (48.6%), carbapenems (34.3%), and quinolones (17.1%). Enhanced early treatment response rate was detected (p = 0.04) in patients with BSI caused by AMP/SLB-resistant isolates treated with another monotherapy (74.3%) compared to those treated with PIP/TAZ (57.1%), and was mainly driven by the use of cephalosporins and quinolones (p ≤ 0.03). Clinical success, 28-day mortality, and rate of relapsing BSI did not significantly differ between the groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that initial use of PIP/TAZ may be associated with reduced early treatment response in E. coli BSI caused by AMP/SLB-resistant isolates compared to alternative monotherapies.

Elastic power, a novel predictor of the severity and prognosis of ARDS

PURPOSE

To explore the predictive value of the new comprehensive respiratory mechanics parameters elastic power (EP) and elastic power normalized to the compliance (Cst-EP) in the evaluation of the severity and 28-day prognosis of ARDS patients.

METHODS

The MIMIC-III database was used to identify ARDS patients under invasive mechanical ventilation for at least 48 h. Their baseline data and ventilatory variables were collected. EP, elastic energy, driving pressure and mechanical power were calculated according to the corresponding formulas. Their value in assessing the severity of ARDS was evaluated. The correlation between Cst-EP and 28-day prognosis of ARDS patients was analyzed.

RESULTS

EP was independently associated with the severity of the ARDS and the odds ratio (OR) was 1.301 [95% CI (1.190-1.423), p < 0.001]. It has higher accuracy for the severity of ARDS, with an optimal cut-off value of 14.6 J/min. The Cst-EP was significantly associated with increased risk of death and the hazard ratio (HR) per 100 J/min × cmH2O/ml × 10-3 was 1.169 [95% CI (1.093-1.250), p < 0.001]. In addition, the 28-day cumulative survival rate of the high Cst-EP group was significantly lower than that of the low Cst-EP group.

CONCLUSION

EP can be used to predict the severity of ARDS, and Cst-EP is associated with mortality during controlled mechanical ventilation in ARDS.

Corrigendum: Impact of central venous pressure during the first 24 h and its time-course on the lactate levels and clinical outcomes of patients who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fcvm.2023.1036285.].

The influence of metoprolol in patients with sepsis-induced cardiomyopathy: A retrospective study

OBJECTIVES

To focus on evaluating the clinical influence of metoprolol on sepsis-induced cardiomyopathy (SICM).

METHODS

A total of 90 patients with SICM was enrolled from December 2018 to February 2021 and divided into 2 groups according to the use of metoprolol during hospitalization in Suzhou Municipal Hospital in Suzhou, China. We compared them with the cardiac function, sequential organ failure assessment score, and clinical outcomes.

RESULTS

Between the 2 groups, the oxygenation indices and Glasgow coma scale in the metoprolol group were higher on the first day of treatment, with Glasgow coma scale higher on the third day of treatment. However, the doses of norepinephrine in patients with metoprolol showed no significant differences with the control group. The all-causemortality at 28 days in the metoprolol group was lower, and the time of removing from ventilator support as well as the number of failured organs also significantly differed between the 2 groups.

CONCLUSION

Metoprolol can reduce the 28-day mortality and shorten the duration of mechanical ventilation in SICM. It can also reduce the number of organ failures and improve the oxygenation index and Glasgow coma scale of these patients. Meanwhile, metoprolol did not affect the norepinephrine dose in patients with SICM.

A nomogram to predict 28-day mortality in neonates with sepsis: a retrospective study based on the MIMIC-III database

Background

Sepsis is the second-leading cause of death in neonates. We established a predictive nomogram to identify critically ill neonates early and reduce the time to treatment.

Methods

It is a retrospective case-control study based on the MIMIC-III database. The study population comprised 924 neonates diagnosed with sepsis.

Results

Neonates with sepsis included in the MIMIC-III database were enrolled, including 880 surviving neonates and 44 neonates who died. In the derivation dataset, stepwise regression and the Lasso algorithm were employed to select predictive variables, and the neonatal sequential organ failure assessment score (nSOFA) was calculated simultaneously. Bootstrap resampling was utilized to perform internal validation. The results indicated that the Lasso algorithm displayed superior discrimination, sensitivity, and specificity relative to stepwise regression and nSOFA scores. After 500 bootstrap resampling tests, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the Lasso algorithm was 0.912 (95% CI: 0.870-0.977). The nomogram based on the Lasso algorithm outperformed stepwise regression and nSOFA scores in terms of calibration and the clinical net benefit. This nomogram can assist in prognosticating neonatal severe sepsis and aid in guiding clinical practice while concurrently improving patient outcomes.

Conclusions

The established nomogram revealed that jaundice, corticosteroid use, weight, serum calcium, inotropes and base excess are all important predictors of 28-day mortality in neonates with sepsis. This nomogram can facilitate the early identification of neonates with severe sepsis. However, it still requires further modification and external validation to make it widely available.

Causal pathway from telomere length to occurrence and 28-day mortality of sepsis: an observational and mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

Telomeres are considered to be a physiological marker of aging. Elucidating relationship between telomere length and sepsis is an essential step towards understanding the biological processes involved in sepsis and its salvation. Mendelian randomization studies based on SNPs have given us new insights into genetic susceptibility to disease.

OBJECTIVES

To explore the causal pathway from telomere length to occurrence and 28-day mortality of sepsis.

METHODS

Leveraging genetic information resource of UK Biobank, we captured three groups of large-scale GWAS data: leukocyte telomere length (LTL), sepsis and all-cause death of 28-day. Study design consisted of three parts: forward analysis, reverse analysis and one-way analysis. Genetic instrumental variables were selected for different analyses under the premise that three MR core assumptions were satisfied. Causality was determined by means of IVW.

RESULTS

In forward analysis, we did not observe a significant causal pathway from sepsis to LTL under IVW model: β (SE) was -0.0051 (0.0075) with a p-value of 0.499. In reverse analysis, based on the IVW model, the OR (95% CI) was 0.89 (0.80-0.99) and the p-values was 0.043; based on the results of leave out method and single SNP analysis, we obtained seven key SNPs. There were results of IVW model in the one-way analysis: β (SE) was -0.0287(0.1261).

CONCLUSIONS

Short LTL increases susceptibility to sepsis, but sepsis does not shorten telomere length. LTL does not affect sepsis 28-day all-cause mortality and does not serve as a causal intermediate in gene regulation during the progression of sepsis to 28-day death.

Predictors and nomogram of in-hospital mortality in sepsis-induced myocardial injury: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Sepsis-induced myocardial injury (SIMI) is a common organ dysfunction and is associated with higher mortality in patients with sepsis. We aim to construct a nomogram prediction model to assess the 28-day mortality in patients with SIMI. .

METHOD

We retrospectively extracted data from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV) open-source clinical database. SIMI was defined by Troponin T (higher than the 99th percentile of upper reference limit value) and patients with cardiovascular disease were excluded. A prediction model was constructed in the training cohort by backward stepwise Cox proportional hazards regression model. The concordance index (C-index), area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), calibration plotting and decision-curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the nomogram.

RESULTS

1312 patients with sepsis were included in this study and 1037 (79%) of them presented with SIMI. The multivariate Cox regression analysis in all septic patients revealed that SIMI was independently associated with 28-day mortality of septic patients. The risk factors of diabetes, Apache II score, mechanical ventilation, vasoactive support, Troponin T and creatinine were included in the model and a nomogram was constructed based on the model. The C-index, AUC, NRI, IDI, calibration plotting and DCA showed that the performance of the nomogram was better than the single SOFA score and Troponin T.

CONCLUSION

SIMI is related to the 28-day mortality of septic patients. The nomogram is a well-performed tool to predict accurately the 28-day mortality in patients with SIMI.

Mortality due to Multidrug-Resistant Gram-Negative Bacteremia in an Endemic Region: No Better than a Toss of a Coin

The incidence of multidrug-resistant (MDR) bloodstream infections (BSIs) is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Little evidence exists regarding the epidemiology of BSIs and the use of appropriate empirical antimicrobial therapy in endemic regions. Novel diagnostic tests (RDTs) may facilitate and improve patient management. Data were assessed from patients with MDR Gram-negative bacteremia at a university tertiary hospital over a 12-month period. In total, 157 episodes of MDR Gram-negative BSI were included in the study. The overall mortality rate was 50.3%. Rapid molecular diagnostic tests were used in 94% of BSI episodes. In univariate analysis, age (OR 1.05 (95% CI 1.03, 1.08) p < 0.001), Charlson Comorbidity Index (OR 1.51 (95% CI 1.25, 1.83) p < 0.001), procalcitonin ≥ 1(OR 3.67 (CI 95% 1.73, 7.79) p < 0.001), and monotherapy with tigecycline (OR 3.64 (95% CI 1.13, 11.73) p = 0.030) were the only factors associated with increased overall mortality. Surprisingly, time to appropriate antimicrobial treatment had no impact on mortality. MDR pathogen isolation, other than Klebsiella pneumoniae and Acinetobacter baumanii, was associated with decreased mortality (OR 0.35 (95% CI 0.16, 0.79) p = 0.011). In multivariate analysis, the only significant factor for mortality was procalcitonin ≥ 1 (OR 2.84 (95% CI 1.13, 7.11) p = 0.025). In conclusion, in an endemic area, mortality rates in MDR BSI remain notable. High procalcitonin was the only variable that predicted death. The use of rapid diagnostics did not improve mortality rate.

Association between neutrophil percentage-to-albumin ratio and 28-day mortality in Chinese patients with sepsis

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association between neutrophil percentage-to-albumin ratio (NPAR) and 28-day mortality in severely ill Chinese patients with sepsis.

METHODS

In this retrospective, single-centre study, sepsis patients admitted to the ICU of the Affiliated Hospital of Jining Medical University between May 2015 and December 2021 were retrospectively analysed. The relationship between NPAR and 28-day mortality was examined using Cox proportional-hazards model.

RESULTS

In total, 741 patients with sepsis were included. Multivariate analysis, adjusted for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), smoking and alcohol drinking history, showed an association between elevated NPAR and a high risk of 28-day mortality. After removal of additional confounders, moderate and high NPAR values remained significantly associated with 28-day mortality in comparison with low NPAR values (tertile 2 vs 1: HR, 95% CI: 1.42, 1.06-1.90; tertile 3 vs 1: HR, 95% CI: 1.35, 1.00-1.82). Survival curves stratified by NPAR groups showed that high NPAR levels had lower survival probabilities than lower NPAR levels. Subgroup analysis did not show any significant interactions between NPAR and 28-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated NPAR values were linked to increased 28-day mortality in severely ill Chinese patients with sepsis. The findings require verification by large, prospective, multi-centre studies.

The PaO2/FiO2 is independently associated with 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis: a retrospective analysis from MIMIC-IV database

BACKGROUND

To clarify the relationship between the PaO₂/FiO₂ and 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study regarding MIMIC-IV database. Nineteen thousand two hundred thirty-three patients with sepsis were included in the final analysis. PaO₂/FiO₂ was exposure variable, 28-day mortality was outcome variable. PaO₂/FiO₂ was log-transformed as LnPaO₂/FiO₂. Binary logistic regression was used to explore the independent effects of LnPaO₂/FiO₂ on 28-day mortality using non-adjusted and multivariate-adjusted models. A generalized additive model (GAM) and smoothed curve fitting was used to investigate the non-linear relationship between LnPaO₂/FiO₂ and 28-day mortality. A two-piecewise linear model was used to calculate the OR and 95% CI on either side of the inflection point.

RESULTS

The relationship between LnPaO₂/FiO₂ and risk of 28-day death in sepsis patients was U-shape. The inflection point of LnPaO₂/FiO₂ was 5.30 (95%CI: 5.21-5.39), which indicated the inflection point of PaO₂/FiO₂ was 200.33 mmHg (95%CI: 183.09 mmHg-219.20 mmHg). On the left of inflection point, LnPaO₂/FiO₂ was negatively correlated with 28-day mortality (OR: 0.37, 95%CI: 0.32-0.43, p < 0.0001). On the right of inflection point, LnPaO₂/FiO₂ was positively correlated with 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis (OR: 1.53, 95%CI: 1.31-1.80, p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with sepsis, either a high or low PaO₂/FiO₂ was associated with an increased risk of 28-day mortality. In the range of 183.09 mmHg to 219.20 mmHg, PaO₂/FiO₂ was associated with a lower risk of 28-day death in patients with sepsis.

Optimal Nutritional Support Strategy Based on the Association between Modified NUTRIC Score and 28-Day Mortality in Critically Ill Patients: A Prospective Study

Malnutrition in critically ill patients is closely linked with clinical outcomes. During acute inflammatory states, nutrition cannot reverse the loss of body cell mass completely. Studies on nutritional screening and strategy considering metabolic changes have not yet been conducted. We aimed to identify nutrition strategies using the modified Nutrition Risk in the Critically ill (mNUTIRC) score. Nutrition support data, laboratory nutrition indicators, and prognosis indices were prospectively collected on the 2nd and 7th day after admission. It was to identify the effect of the changes on the metabolic status and critical target of nutrition intervention. To discriminate the high-risk group of malnutrition, receiver operating characteristic curves were plotted. Risk factors associated with 28 day-mortality were evaluated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. A total of 490 and 266 patients were analyzed on the 2nd and 7th day, respectively. Only the mNUTRIC score showed significant differences in nutritional risk stratification. The use of vasopressors, hypoprotein supply (<1.0 g/kg/day), high mNUTRIC score, and hypoalbuminemia (<2.5 mg/dL) in the recovery phase were strongly associated with a 28-day mortality. The implementation of the mNUTRIC score and protein supply in the post-acute phase is critical to improve 28-day mortality in critically ill patients.

Impact of central venous pressure during the first 24 h and its time-course on the lactate levels and clinical outcomes of patients who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting

Purpose

Previous studies have revealed that elevated mean central venous pressure (CVP) was associated with poor prognosis in specific patient groups. But no study explored the impact of mean CVP on prognosis of patients who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting surgery (CABG). The purpose of this study was to investigate the impacts of elevated CVP and its time-course on clinical outcomes of patients who underwent CABG and potential mechanisms.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was performed based on the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database. We first identified the CVP during specific period with the most predictive value. Patients were categorized into the low-CVP and high-CVP group on the basis of the cut-off value. A propensity score matching was used to adjust covariates. The primary outcome was a 28-day mortality. The secondary outcomes were 1-year mortality and in-hospital mortality, the length of intensive care unit (ICU) stay and hospitalization, acute kidney injury incidence, use of vasopressors, duration of ventilation and oxygen index, and lactate levels and clearance. Patients in the high-CVP group were categorized into the "second day CVP ≤ 13.46 mmHg" group and the "second day CVP > 13.46 mmHg" group, respectively, and the clinical outcomes were the same as before.

Results

A total of 6,255 patients who underwent CABG were picked from the MIMIC-IV database, of which 5,641 CABG patients were monitored by CVP measurement during the first 2 days after ICU admission and 206,016 CVP records were extracted from the database. The mean CVP during the first 24 h was the most correlative and statistically significant for the 28-day mortality. The risk of the 28-day mortality was increased in the high-CVP group [OR 3.45 (95% CI: 1.77-6.70; p < 0.001)]. Patients with elevated CVP levels had worse secondary outcomes. The maximum of lactate levels and lactate clearance were also poor in the high-CVP group. For patients in the high-CVP group during the first 24 h, whose mean CVP during the second day lowered to less than the cut-off value, had better clinical outcomes.

Conclusions

An elevated mean CVP during the first 24 h was correlated with poor outcomes in patients who underwent CABG. The potential mechanisms may be influencing the lactate levels and lactate clearance through the impact on afterload of tissue perfusion. Patients whose mean CVP during the second day dropped to less than the cut-off value had favorable prognosis.

Association between the time-varying arterial carbon dioxide pressure and 28-day mortality in mechanically ventilated patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome

BACKGROUND

Recent studies have shown an association between baseline arterial carbon dioxide pressure (PaCO₂) and outcomes in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). However, PaCO₂ probably varies throughout the disease, and few studies have assessed the effect of longitudinal PaCO₂ on prognosis. We thus aimed to investigate the association between time-varying PaCO₂ and 28-day mortality in mechanically ventilated ARDS patients.

METHODS

In this retrospective study, we included all adult (≥ 18 years) patients diagnosed with ARDS who received mechanical ventilation for at least 24 h at a tertiary teaching hospital between January 2014 and March 2021. Patients were excluded if they received extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO). Demographic data, respiratory variables, and daily PaCO₂ were extracted. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. Time-varying Cox models were used to estimate the association between longitudinal PaCO₂ measurements and 28-day mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 709 patients were eligible for inclusion in the final cohort, with an average age of 65 years, of whom 70.7% were male, and the overall 28-day mortality was 35.5%. After adjustment for baseline confounders, including age and severity of disease, a significant increase in the hazard of death was found to be associated with both time-varying PaCO₂ (HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.03-1.11, p<0.001) and the time-varying coefficient of variation for PaCO₂ (HR 1.24 per 10% increase, 95% CI 1.10-1.40, p<0.001) during the first five days of invasive mechanical ventilation. The cumulative proportion of exposure to normal PaCO₂ (HR 0.72 per 10% increase, 95% CI 0.58-0.89, p = 0.002) was associated with 28-day mortality.

CONCLUSION

PaCO₂ should be closely monitored in mechanically ventilated ARDS patients. The association between PaCO₂ and 28-day mortality persisted over time. Increased cumulative exposure to normal PaCO₂ was associated with a decreased risk of death.

Using machine learning methods to predict 28-day mortality in patients with hepatic encephalopathy

BACKGROUND

Hepatic encephalopathy (HE) is associated with marked increases in morbidity and mortality for cirrhosis patients. This study aimed to develop and validate machine learning (ML) models to predict 28-day mortality for patients with HE.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV database. Patients from MIMIC-IV were randomized into training and validation cohorts in a ratio of 7:3. Training cohort was used for establishing the model while validation cohort was used for validation. The outcome was defined as 28-day mortality. Predictors were identified by recursive feature elimination (RFE) within 24 h of intensive care unit (ICU) admission. The area under the curve (AUC) and calibration curve were used to determine the predictive performance of different ML models.

RESULTS

In the MIMIC-IV database, 601 patients were eventually diagnosed with HE. Of these, 112 (18.64%) experienced death within 28 days. Acute physiology score III (APSIII), sepsis related organ failure assessment (SOFA), international normalized ratio (INR), total bilirubin (TBIL), albumin, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), acute kidney injury (AKI) and mechanical ventilation were identified as independent risk factors. Validation set indicated that the artificial neural network (NNET) model had the highest AUC of 0.837 (95% CI:0.774-0.901). Furthermore, in the calibration curve, the NNET model was also well-calibrated (P = 0.323), which means that it can better predict the 28-day mortality in HE patients. Additionally, the performance of the NNET is superior to existing scores, including Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-Na).

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, the NNET model demonstrated better discrimination in predicting 28-day mortality as compared to other models. This developed model could potentially improve the early detection of HE with high mortality, subsequently improving clinical outcomes in these patients with HE, but further external prospective validation is still required.

Timing of vasopressin initiation and mortality in patients with septic shock: analysis of the MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV databases

BACKGROUND

vasopressin is commonly used as a second-line vasopressor for patients with septic shock, but the optimal timing of initiation is uncertain. This study was designed to investigate when vasopressin initiation may be beneficial for 28-day mortality in septic shock patients.

METHODS

This was a retrospective observational cohort study from the MIMIC-III v1.4 and MIMIC-IV v2.0 databases. All adults diagnosed with septic shock according to Sepsis-3 criteria were included. Patients were stratified into two groups based on norepinephrine (NE) dose at the time of vasopressin initiation, defined as the low doses of NE group (NE<0.25 µg/kg/min) and the high doses of NE group (NE ≥ 0.25 µg/kg/min). The primary end-point was 28-day mortality after diagnosis of septic shock. The analysis involved propensity score matching (PSM), multivariable logistic regression, doubly robust estimation, the gradient boosted model, and an inverse probability-weighting model.

RESULTS

A total of 1817 eligible patients were included in our original cohort (613 in the low doses of NE group and 1204 in the high doses of NE group). After 1:1 PSM, 535 patients from each group with no difference in disease severity were included in the analysis. The results showed that vasopressin initiation at low doses of NE was associated with reduced 28-day mortality (odds ratio [OR] 0.660, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.518-0.840, p < 0.001). Compared with patients in the high doses of NE group, patients in the low doses of NE group received significantly shorter duration of NE, with less intravenous fluid volume on the first day after initiation of vasopressin, more urine on the second day, and longer mechanical ventilation-free days and CRRT-free days. Nevertheless, there were no significant differences in hemodynamic response to vasopressin, duration of vasopressin, and ICU or hospital length of stay.

CONCLUSIONS

Among adults with septic shock, vasopressin initiation when low-dose NE was used was associated with an improvement in 28-day mortality.

Identifying high-risk phenotypes and associated harms of delayed time-to-antibiotics in patients with ICU onset sepsis: A retrospective cohort study

PURPOSE

To identify phenotypes of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) onset sepsis and its associated harms of delayed time-to-antibiotics.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database was employed to identify patients with ICU onset sepsis. The primary exposure was time-to-antibiotics, as measured from sepsis recognition to first antibiotic administered. Latent profile analysis (LPA) was used to identify phenotypes of sepsis based on individual organ failure score derived from Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA). Interactions between phenotypes and time-to-antibiotics on 28-day mortality were explored.

RESULTS

6246 patients were enrolled in final analysis. The overall 28-day mortality was 12.7%. Delayed time-to-antibiotics was associated with increased 28-day mortality in patients with ICU onset sepsis (HR 1.12, 95% CI 1.08-1.18). Four phenotypes of sepsis were identified: phenotype 1 was characterized by respiratory dysfunction, phenotype 2 was characterized by cardiovascular dysfunction, phenotype 3 was characterized by multiple organ dysfunction, and phenotype 4 was characterized by neurological dysfunction. The adjusted HR of 28-day mortality was 1.16 (95% CI 1.08-1.25) in phenotype 1, and 1.06 (95% CI 1.00-1.13) in phenotype 2, while no significant interaction was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Septic patients with respiratory or cardiovascular dysfunction were associated with harms of delayed time-to-antibiotics.

The ability of long non-coding RNA RP11-284N8.3 to predict the risk, the severity and 28-day mortality of adults with sepsis

In a prior study, we identified a novel sepsis specific long noncoding RNAs (lncRNA) RP11-284N8.3, which may primarily participate in T cell activation and immune response during sepsis. However, the clinical significance of lncRNA RP11-284N8.3 in sepsis remains entirely unknown. This single-center prospective cohort study enrolled 147 adults with sepsis and 74 healthy controls (HCs) with matched age and sex between January 2021 and November 2022 at our hospital. Blood samples and clinical data were collected from HCs at enrollment and from adults with sepsis within 24 hours after admission. lncRNA RP11-284N8.3 expression was detected by RT-qPCR. The relative expression of lncRNA RP11-284N8.3 was significantly decreased in adults with sepsis compared to HCs (P < .0001), in adults with septic shock compared to adults without shock (P = .0012), and in 28-day deaths compared to 28-day survivors (P = .0006). receiver operating characteristic curves of lncRNA RP11-284N8.3 in predicting sepsis severity and 28-day mortality showed an area under the curve of 0.6570 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.5701-0.7440) and an area under the curve of 0.6765 (95% CI: 0.5809-0.7721), respectively. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that lncRNA RP11-284N8.3 was an independent risk factor for 28-day mortality in adults with sepsis (odds ratio: 0.1057, 95% CI: 0.0115-0.7746, P = .0328). Low expression of lncRNA RP11-284N8.3 is correlated with increased risk, severity and 28-day mortality in adults with sepsis, and it may function as a potential biomarker to facilitate the diagnosis and management of sepsis.

Lung morphology impacts the association between ventilatory variables and mortality in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome

BACKGROUND

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) patients with different lung morphology have distinct pulmonary mechanical dysfunction and outcomes. Whether lung morphology impacts the association between ventilatory variables and mortality remains unclear. Moreover, the impact of a novel combined ventilator variable [(4×DP) + RR] on morality in ARDS patients needs external validation.

METHODS

We obtained data from the Chinese Database in Intensive Care (CDIC), which included adult ARDS patients who received invasive mechanical ventilation for at least 24 h. Patients were further classified into two groups based on lung morphology (focal and non-focal). Ventilatory variables were collected longitudinally within the first four days of ventilation. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. Extended Cox regression models were employed to explore the interaction between lung morphology and longitudinal ventilatory variables on mortality.

FINDINGS

We included 396 ARDS patients with different lung morphology (64.1% non-focal). The overall 28-day mortality was 34.4%. Patients with non-focal lung morphology have more severe and persistent pulmonary mechanical dysfunction and higher mortality than those with focal lung morphology. Time-varying driving pressure (DP) was more significantly associated with 28-day mortality in patients with non-focal lung morphology compared to focal lung morphology patients (P for interaction = 0.0039). The impact of DP on mortality was more significant than that of respiratory rate (RR) only in patients with non-focal lung morphology. The hazard ratio (HR) of mortality for [(4×DP) + RR] was significant in patients with non-focal lung morphology (HR 1.036, 95% CI 1.027-1.045), not in patients with focal lung morphology (HR 1.019, 95% CI 0.999-1.039).

INTERPRETATION

The association between ventilator variables and mortality varied among patients with different lung morphology. [(4×DP) + RR] was only associated with mortality in patients with non-focal lung morphology. Further validation is needed.

Protective efficacy of statins in patients with Klebsiella pneumoniae bloodstream infection

Background

Patients with bloodstream infection of Klebsiella pneumoniae (BSI-KP) have a high risk of death and septic shock. This study aims to identify the risk factors for mortality and severity in patients of BSI-KP.

Methods

Data of BSI-KP patients were extracted from the MIMIC IV (Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV) database, and patients infected with only K. pneumoniae in blood were included in this study. The risk factors of 28-day mortality and septic shock in BSI-KP patients were analyzed, respectively.

Results

A total of 279 patients enrolled and the all-cause 28-day mortality rate was 11.8%. The use of statins (OR 0.220, 95% CI 0.060-0.801, p = 0.022) and quinolones (OR 0.356, 95% CI 0.143-0.887, p = 0.027) were both independent protective factors for death within 28 days, while the use of vasoactive drugs (OR 7.377, 95% CI 1.775-30.651, p = 0.006) was a risk factor. Besides, pulmonary disease (OR 2.348, 95% CI 1.126-4.897, p = 0.023), bleeding and coagulation disorders (OR 3.626, 95% CI 1.783-7.372, p < 0.001), respiratory failure (OR 2.823, 95% CI 0.178-6.767, p = 0.020) and kidney dysfunction (OR 2.450, 95% CI 1.189-5.047, p = 0.015) were independent risk factors for patients suffered from septic shock while hypertension was a protective one. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves could well predict the risk of death within 28-day (area under ROC = 0.855, 95% CI = 0.796-0.914, p < 0.001) and septic shock (AUROC = 0.815, 95% CI = 0.755-0.874, p < 0.001) in patients with BSI-KP.

Conclusion

The use of statins could decrease the risk of 28-day mortality in patients of BSI-KP. The risk factor-based prediction model provided evidence for drug treatment in BSI-KP patients. Paying more attention to the strategy of drug treatment will be an optimal way to improve patient's outcome in clinical practice.

Epidemiology and outcomes of early-onset AKI in COVID-19-related ARDS in comparison with non-COVID-19-related ARDS: insights from two prospective global cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a frequent and severe complication of both COVID-19-related acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and non-COVID-19-related ARDS. The COVID-19 Critical Care Consortium (CCCC) has generated a global data set on the demographics, management and outcomes of critically ill COVID-19 patients. The LUNG-SAFE study was an international prospective cohort study of patients with severe respiratory failure, including ARDS, which pre-dated the pandemic.

METHODS

The incidence, demographic profile, management and outcomes of early AKI in patients undergoing invasive mechanical ventilation for COVID-19-related ARDS were described and compared with AKI in a non-COVID-19-related ARDS cohort.

RESULTS

Of 18,964 patients in the CCCC data set, 1699 patients with COVID-19-related ARDS required invasive ventilation and had relevant outcome data. Of these, 110 (6.5%) had stage 1, 94 (5.5%) had stage 2, 151 (8.9%) had stage 3 AKI, while 1214 (79.1%) had no AKI within 48 h of initiating invasive mechanical ventilation. Patients developing AKI were older and more likely to have hypertension or chronic cardiac disease. There were geo-economic differences in the incidence of AKI, with lower incidence of stage 3 AKI in European high-income countries and a higher incidence in patients from middle-income countries. Both 28-day and 90-day mortality risk was increased for patients with stage 2 (HR 2.00, p < 0.001) and stage 3 AKI (HR 1.95, p < 0.001). Compared to non-COVID-19 ARDS, the incidence of shock was reduced with lower cardiovascular SOFA score across all patient groups, while hospital mortality was worse in all groups [no AKI (30 vs 50%), Stage 1 (38 vs 58%), Stage 2 (56 vs 74%), and Stage 3 (52 vs 72%), p < 0.001]. The time profile of onset of AKI also differed, with 56% of all AKI occurring in the first 48 h in patients with COVID-19 ARDS compared to 89% in the non-COVID-19 ARDS population.

CONCLUSION

AKI is a common and serious complication of COVID-19, with a high mortality rate, which differs by geo-economic location. Important differences exist in the profile of AKI in COVID-19 versus non-COVID-19 ARDS in terms of their haemodynamic profile, time of onset and clinical outcomes.

Corrigendum: Construction and validation of a robust prognostic model based on immune features in sepsis

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fimmu.2022.994295.].

Association between different concentrations of human serum albumin and 28-day mortality in intensive care patients with sepsis: A propensity score matching analysis

Background: Human serum albumin (HSA) is a commonly used medication for the treatment of sepsis. However, there is no conclusive evidence as to whether different concentrations of HSA are associated with patient prognosis. This study aimed to evaluate the association between different concentrations of HSA and 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis. Methods: The data for this retrospective study were collected from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database. Patients with sepsis were divided into two groups according to the concentration of HSA received: 25% and 5% HSA. The primary outcome of this study was the 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis. To ensure the robustness of our findings, we used multivariate Cox regression, propensity score matching, double-robust estimation, and inverse probability weighting models. Results: A total of 76,943 patients were screened, of whom 5,009 were enrolled. 1,258 and 3,751 patients received 25% and 5% HSA, respectively. The 28-day mortality rate was 38.2% (481/1,258) for patients in the 25% HSA group and 8.7% (325/3,751) for patients in the 5% HSA group. After propensity score matching, 1,648 patients were identified. The inverse probability weighting model suggested that 5% HSA received was associated with lower 28-day mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.63, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.54-0.73, p < 0.001). Subgroup and sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of the results. Conclusion: In patients with sepsis, 5% HSA received may be associated with a lower risk of 28-day mortality than 25% HSA. Further randomized controlled trials are required to confirm this association.

A simple APACHE IV risk dynamic nomogram that incorporates early admitted lactate for the initial assessment of 28-day mortality in critically ill patients with acute myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

Early risk stratification is important for patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We aimed to develop a simple APACHE IV dynamic nomogram, combined with easily available clinical parameters within 24 h of admission, thus improving its predictive power to assess the risk of mortality at 28 days.

METHODS

Clinical information on AMI patients was extracted from the eICU database v2.0. A preliminary XGBoost examination of the degree of association between all variables in the database and 28-day mortality was conducted. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to perform screening of variables. Based on the multifactorial analysis, a dynamic nomogram predicting 28-day mortality in these patients was developed. To cope with missing data in records with missing variables, we applied the multiple imputation method. Predictive models are evaluated in three main areas, namely discrimination, calibration, and clinical validity. The discrimination is mainly represented by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Calibration is represented by the calibration plot. Clinical validity is represented by the decision curve analysis (DCA) curve.

RESULTS

A total of 504 people were included in the study. All 504 people were used to build the predictive model, and the internal validation model used a 500-bootstrap method. Multivariate analysis showed that four variables, APACHE IV, the first sample of admission lactate, prior atrial fibrillation (AF), and gender, were included in the nomogram as independent predictors of 28-day mortality in AMI. The prediction model had an AUC of 0.819 (95%CI 0.770-0.868) whereas the internal validation model had an AUC of 0.814 (95%CI 0.765-0.860). Calibration and DCA curves indicated that the dynamic nomogram in this study were reflective of real-world conditions and could be applied clinically. The predictive model composed of these four variables outperformed a single APACHE IV in terms of NRI and IDI. The NRI was 16.4% (95% CI: 6.1-26.8%; p = 0.0019) and the IDI was 16.4% (95% CI: 6.0-26.8%; p = 0.0020). Lactate accounted for nearly half of the total NRI, which showed that lactate was the most important of the other three variables.

CONCLUSION

The prediction model constructed by APACHE IV in combination with the first sample of admission lactate, prior AF, and gender outperformed the APACHE IV scoring system alone in predicting 28-day mortality in AMI. The prediction dynamic nomogram model was published via a website app, allowing clinicians to improve the predictive efficacy of the APACHE IV score by 16.4% in less than 1 min.

Longitudinal phenotypes in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome: a multi-database study

Background

Previously identified phenotypes of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) have been limited by a disregard for temporal dynamics. We aimed to identify longitudinal phenotypes in ARDS to test the prognostic and predictive enrichment of longitudinal phenotypes, and to develop simplified models for phenotype identification.

Methods

We conducted a multi-database study based on the Chinese Database in Intensive Care (CDIC) and four ARDS randomized clinical trials (RCTs). We employed latent class analysis (LCA) to identify longitudinal phenotypes using 24-hourly data from the first four days of invasive ventilation. We used the Cox regression model to explore the association between time-varying respiratory parameters and 28-day mortality across phenotypes. Phenotypes were validated in four RCTs, and the heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE) was investigated. We also constructed two multinomial logistical regression analyses to develop the probabilistic models.

Findings

A total of 605 ARDS patients in CDIC were enrolled. The three-class LCA model was identified and had the optimal fit, as follows: Class 1 (n = 400, 66.1% of the cohort) was the largest phenotype over all study days, and had fewer abnormal values, less organ dysfunction and the lowest 28-day mortality rate (30.5%). Class 2 (n = 102, 16.9% of the cohort) was characterized by pulmonary mechanical dysfunction and had the highest proportion of poorly aerated lung volume, the 28-day mortality rate was 47.1%. Class 3 (n = 103, 17% of the cohort) was correlated with extra-pulmonary dysfunction and had the highest 28-day mortality rate (56.3%). Time-varying mechanical power was more significantly associated with 28-day mortality in Class 2 patients compared to other phenotypes. Similar phenotypes were identified in four RCTs. A significant HTE between phenotypes and treatment strategies was observed in the ALVEOLI (high PEEP vs. low PEEP) and the FACTT trials (conservative vs. liberal fluid management). Two parsimonious probabilistic models were constructed to identify longitudinal phenotypes.

Interpretation

We identified and validated three novel longitudinal phenotypes for ARDS patients, with both prognostic and predictive enrichment. The phenotypes of ARDS can be accurately identified with simple classifier models, except for Class 3.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13054-022-04211-w.

Comparison of Clinical Characteristics and Predictors of Mortality between Direct and Indirect ARDS

Background and Objectives: Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) is a heterogeneous syndrome that encompasses lung injury from a direct pulmonary or indirect systemic insult. Studies have shown that direct and indirect ARDS differ in their pathophysiologic process. In this study, we aimed to compare the different clinical characteristics and predictors of 28-day mortality between direct and indirect ARDS. Materials and Methods: The data of 1291 ARDS patients from September 2012 to December 2021 at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University were reviewed. We enrolled 451 ARDS patients in our study through inclusion and exclusion criteria. According to the risk factors, each patient was divided into direct (n = 239) or indirect (n = 212) ARDS groups. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. Results: The patients with direct ARDS were more likely to be older (p < 0.001) and male (p = 0.009) and have more comorbidity (p < 0.05) and higher 28-day mortality (p < 0.001) than those with indirect ARDS. Age and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) were predictors of 28-day mortality in the direct ARDS group, while age, MODS, creatinine, prothrombin time (PT), and oxygenation index (OI) were independent predictors of 28-day mortality in the indirect ARDS group. Creatinine, PT, and OI have interactions with ARDS types (all p < 0.01). Conclusions: The patients with direct ARDS were more likely to be older and male and have worse conditions and prognoses than those with indirect ARDS. Creatinine, PT, and OI were predictors of 28-day mortality only in the indirect ARDS group. The differences between direct and indirect ARDS suggest the need for different management strategies of ARDS.

Predictive Value of Combination of Procalcitonin and Predisposition, Infection, Response, and Organ Dysfunction (PIRO) System in Septic Patients with Positive Blood Cultures in the Emergency Department

Purpose

Procalcitonin and predisposition, infection, response, and organ dysfunction (PIRO) system have high predictive value for the prognosis of critically ill patients. There are few studies on the predictive value of patients with positive blood cultures. The aim of the study was to evaluate risk stratification and sepsis-related mortality in patients with positive blood cultures via procalcitonin (PCT) combined with the PIRO system in emergency departments (ED).

Methods

A total of 1074 patients with positive blood cultures were admitted to Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital ED from December 2017 to October 2020. Their serum PCT was recorded, along with a Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS) score, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, and PIRO score to predict the prognosis of septic patients with positive blood culture in terms of ICU (intensive care unit) admission, multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) development, and 28-day mortality. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and logistic regression analysis were used to assess the prognostic value of the scoring systems.

Results

A total of 978 patients met the inclusion criteria. PCT, MEDS, APACHE II, and PIRO scores were found to independently predict ICU-admission, MODS development, and 28-day mortality (P<0.05), whereas SOFA did not. The AUC values of the PCT, MEDS, APACHE II, and PIRO scores for ICU-admission were 0.620, 0.740, 0.780, and 0.751, respectively. In the prediction of 28-day mortality, the AUC values of PCT, MEDS, APACHE II, and PIRO were 0.782, 0.745, 0.805, and 0.831, respectively. The AUC values combined PCT and PIRO system in predicting MODS and 28-day mortality were better than when predicting ICU-admission.

Conclusion

This study indicates that PCT combined with the PIRO scoring system has a higher predictive value and is superior in predicting MODS and 28-day mortality in septic patients with positive blood cultures.

Efficacy and safety of baricitinib and tocilizumab in hospitalized patients with COVID-19: A comparison using systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective: This review was performed to compare the efficacy and safety among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 who received baricitinib and those who received tocilizumab independently with placebo or the standard of care (SOC). Methods: Relevant databases were searched for randomized controlled trials which evaluated the effect of baricitinib or tocilizumab as compared to placebo or the SOC in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. The primary endpoint was the comparison of the 28-day mortality. Risk ratios (RR) and mean differences were compared and pooled for dichotomous and continuous variables, respectively. A two-staged exploratory network meta-analysis using a multivariate meta-analysis was also performed. All analyses were performed in Stata version 16.0. The GRADE approach was used to assess the quality of the generated evidence (PROSPERO ID: CRD42022323363). Results: Treatment with baricitinib [RR, 0.69 (95% CI, 0.50-0.94), p = 0.02, i2 = 64.86%] but not with tocilizumab [RR, 0.87 (95% CI, 0.71-1.07), p = 0.19, i2 = 24.41%] led to a significant improvement in the 28-day mortality as compared to that with the SOC. Treatment with baricitinib or tocilizumab, both independently led to a significant reduction in the duration of hospitalization [baricitinib: mean difference, -1.13 days (95% CI, -1.51 to -0.76), p < 0.001, i2 = 0.00%; tocilizumab: mean difference, -2.80 days (95% CI, -4.17 to -1.43), p < 0.001, i2 = 55.47%] and a significant improvement in the proportion of patients recovering clinically by day 28 [baricitinib: RR, 1.24 (95% CI, 1.03-1.48), p = 0.02, i2 = 27.20%; tocilizumab: RR, 1.41 (95% CI, 1.12-1.78), p < 0.001, i2 = 34.59%] as compared to those with the SOC. From the safety point of view, both these drugs showed similar results. There were fewer patients who experienced any serious adverse event following treatment with barictinib and tocilizumab as compared to those following treatment with the SOC [baricitinib: RR, 0.76 (95% CI, 0.62-0.92), p = 0.01, i2 = 12.63%; tocilizumab: RR, 0.85 (95% CI, 0.72-1.01), p = 0.07, i2 = 0.00%]. Conclusion: As baricitinib and tocilizumab are recommended interchangeably by various guidelines for the management of COVID-19, considering the better 28-day mortality data and other comparable efficacy and safety outcomes, baricitinib may be favored over tocilizumab considering its ease of administration, shorter half-life, and lower cost of treatment.

Inflammatory plasma proteins predict short-term mortality in patients with an acute myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to investigate the association between inflammatory markers and 28-day mortality in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).

METHODS

In 398 STEMI patients recorded between 2009 and 2013 by the population-based Myocardial Infarction Registry Augsburg, 92 protein biomarkers were measured in admission arterial blood samples using the OLINK inflammatory panel. In multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models, the association between each marker and 28-day mortality was investigated. The values of the biomarkers most significantly associated with mortality were standardized and summarized to obtain a prediction score for 28-day mortality. The predictive ability of this biomarker score was compared to the established GRACE score using ROC analysis. Finally, a combined total score was generated by adding the standardized biomarker score to the standardized GRACE score.

RESULTS

The markers IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, FGF-21, FGF-23, ST1A1, MCP-1, 4E-BP1, and CST5 were most significantly associated with 28-day mortality, each with FDR-adjusted (false discovery rate adjusted) p-values of < 0.01 in the multivariable logistic regression model. In a ROC analysis, the biomarker score and the GRACE score showed comparable predictive ability for 28-day mortality (biomarker score AUC: 0.7859 [CI: 0.6735-0.89], GRACE score AUC: 0.7961 [CI: 0.6965-0.8802]). By combining the biomarker score and the Grace score, the predictive ability improved with an AUC of 0.8305 [CI: 0.7269-0.9187]. A continuous Net Reclassification Improvement (cNRI) of 0.566 (CI: 0.192-0.94, p-value: 0.003) and an Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI) of 0.083 ((CI: 0.016-0.149, p-value: 0.015) confirmed the superiority of the combined score over the GARCE score.

CONCLUSIONS

Inflammatory biomarkers may play a significant role in the pathophysiology of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and AMI-related mortality and might be a promising starting point for personalized medicine, which aims to provide each patient with tailored therapy.

Prognostic value of neutrophils to lymphocytes and platelets ratio for 28-day mortality in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome: a retrospective study

Background

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a rapidly progressive and fatal respiratory failure disease that often occurs in critically ill patients. Since ARDS is associated with immune dysregulation and coagulation abnormalities, it is necessary to identify an appropriate predictor that can accurately predict ARDS mortality based on its pathophysiology. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the clinical value of neutrophils to lymphocytes and platelets ratio (N/LPR) in predicting 28-day mortality in ARDS patients.

Methods

From July 2018 to October 2021, the medical records of ARDS patients were retrospective reviewed. Neutrophil count, lymphocyte count, and platelet count were collected, and the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and N/LPR were calculated. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors of 28-day mortality in ARDS. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve with the area under curve (AUC) was used to evaluate optimal cut-off values for 28-day mortality in ARDS. Kaplan–Meier analysis was used to estimate the 28-day survival probabilities stratified by optimal cut-off values of N/LPR and NLR.

Results

A total of 136 ARDS patients were included in this study and were further divided into survivors (n = 69) and non-survivors (n = 67) groups according to their survival status on day 28. There were no significant differences between the two groups in age, sex, history of smoking and drinking, comorbidities, and reasons of admission (P > 0.05). Non-survivors had significantly higher neutrophil counts, NLR and N/LPR and had significantly lower platelet counts than survivors (P < 0.05). Multivariate regression analysis revealed that N/LPR, NLR and platelet counts were independent predictors for 28-day mortality in ARDS (P < 0.05). The ROC analyses showed that N/LPR with optimal cut-off value of 10.57 (sensitivity: 74.6%; specificity: 72.5%) is a more reliable predictor for 28-day mortality in ARDS than NLR and platelet count (AUC: 0.785 vs. 0.679 vs. 0.326). Further subgroup analysis confirmed that ARDS patients with N/LPR < 10.57 had significantly lower 28-day mortality than patients with N/LPR ≥ 10.57 (P < 0.001). Kaplan–Meier analysis also confirmed that ARDS patients with N/LPR < 10.57 had significantly longer survival.

Conclusion

N/LPR is an independent risk factor associated with 28-day mortality in ARDS patients and shows better performance in predicting mortality rate than NLR.

Time-varying intensity of oxygen exposure is associated with mortality in critically ill patients with mechanical ventilation

BACKGROUND

There is no consensus exists regarding the association between oxygen exposure (arterial oxygen tension or fraction of inspired oxygen) and outcomes for patients with mechanical ventilation. Additionally, whether the association remains persistent over time is unknown. We aimed to explore the association between exposure to different intensities of oxygen exposure over time and 28-day mortality in patients with mechanical ventilation.

METHODS

We obtained data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV), which included adult (≥ 18 years) patients who received invasive mechanical ventilation for at least 48 h. We excluded patients who received extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) or who initiated ventilation more than 24 h after ICU admission. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. Piece-wise exponential additive mixed models were employed to estimate the strength of associations over time.

RESULTS

A total of 7784 patients were included in the final analysis. Patients had a median duration of invasive mechanical ventilation of 8.1 days (IQR: 3.8-28 days), and the overall 28-day mortality rate was 26.3%. After adjustment for baseline and time-dependent confounders, both daily time-weighted average (TWA) arterial oxygen tension (PaO₂) and fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO₂) were associated with increased 28-day mortality, and the strength of the association manifested predominantly in the early-middle course of illness. A significant increase in the hazard of death was found to be associated with daily exposure to TWA-PaO₂ ≥ 120 mmHg (Hazard ratio 1.166, 95% CI 1.059-1.284) or TWA-FiO₂ ≥ 0.5 (Hazard ratio 1.496, 95% CI 1.363-1.641) during the entire course. A cumulative effect of harmful exposure (TWA-PaO₂ ≥ 120 mmHg or TWA-FiO₂ ≥ 0.5) was also observed.

CONCLUSION

PaO₂ and FiO₂ should be carefully monitored in patients with mechanical ventilation, especially during the early-middle course after ICU admission. Cumulative exposure to higher intensities of oxygen exposure was associated with an increased risk of death.

Association between Wait Time for Transthoracic Echocardiography and 28-Day Mortality in Patients with Septic Shock: A Cohort Study

Background: the optimal timing of Transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) performance for patients with septic shock remains unexplored. Methods: a retrospective cohort study included patients with septic shock in the MIMIC-Ⅲ database. Risk-adjusted restricted cubic splines modeled the 28-day mortality according to time elapsed from ICU admission to receive TTE. The cut point when a smooth curve inflected was selected to define early and delayed group. We applied propensity score matching (PSM) to ensure our findings were reliable. Causal mediation analysis was used to assess the intermediate effect of fluid balance within 72 h after ICU admission. Results: 3264 participants were enrolled and the risk of 28-day mortality increased until the wait time was around 10 h (Early group) and then was relatively flat afterwards (Delayed group). A beneficial effect of early TTE in terms of the 28-day mortality was observed (HRs 0.73−0.78, all p < 0.05) in the PSM. The indirect effect brought by the fluid balance on day 2 and 3 was significant (both p = 0.006). Conclusion: early TTE performance might be associated with lower risk-adjusted 28-day mortality in patients with septic shock. Better fluid balance may have mediated this effect. A wait time within 10 h after ICU may represent a threshold defining progressively increasing risk.

Pilot Phase Results of a Prospective, Randomized Controlled Trial of Narrowband Ultraviolet B Phototherapy in Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients

COVID‐19 morbidity and mortality are driven by poor immune regulation. Narrowband ultraviolet B (NB‐UVB) phototherapy is standard of care in a number of immune‐dysregulated diseases. To assess the efficacy of NB‐UVB phototherapy for improving COVID‐19 outcomes in high‐risk, hospitalized, we developed the Adaptive Photo‐Protection Trial. This is a multi‐center, prospective, double‐blinded, randomized, placebo‐controlled trial. The pilot phase results are reported here. Consecutive patients admitted with a positive COVID‐19 PCR were screened for eligibility. Enrolled subjects were computer randomized 1:1 to NB‐UVB or placebo phototherapy. Subjects were treated daily with escalating doses on 27% of their body surface area for up to 8 consecutive days. Primary outcomes were safety and efficacy, defined as persistent or painful erythema and 28‐day mortality. Comparisons were made via non‐parametric exact tests. Patients in treatment (n = 15) and placebo (n = 15) arms had similar demographics. No adverse events occurred. Twenty eight‐day mortality was 13.3% in treatment vs. 33.3% in placebo arms (p = 0.39). NB‐UVB phototherapy in hospitalized COVID‐19 patients was safe. Decreased mortality was observed in treated patients but this was statistically non‐significant. Given its low‐cost, scalability, and adjunctive nature, NB‐UVB has the potential to improve COVID‐19 outcomes. Continuation of this trial is warranted.

Abnormal magnesium levels and their impact on death and acute kidney injury in critically ill children

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of magnesium imbalance in critically ill children is very high. However, its significance in the development of acute kidney injury (AKI) and mortality remains unknown.

METHODS

In this retrospective observational study from 2010 to 2018, the pediatric-specific intensive care database was analyzed. We included critically ill children aged > 3 months and those without chronic kidney disease. Patients were diagnosed with AKI, according to the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) study. We calculated the initial corrected magnesium levels (cMg) within 24 h and used a spline regression model to evaluate the cut-off values for cMg. We analyzed 28-day mortality and its association with AKI. The interaction between AKI and magnesium imbalance was evaluated.

RESULTS

The study included 3,669 children, of whom 105 died within 28 days, while 1,823 were diagnosed with AKI. The cut-off values for cMg were 0.72 and 0.94 mmol/L. Both hypermagnesemia and hypomagnesemia were associated with 28-day mortality (odds ratio [OR] = 2.99, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.89-4.71, p < 0.001; OR = 2.80, 95% CI = 1.60-4.89, p < 0.001). Hypermagnesemia was associated with AKI (OR = 1.52, 95% CI = 1.27-1.82, p < 0.001), while neither hypermagnesemia nor hypomagnesemia interacted with the AKI stage on the 28-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Abnormal magnesium levels were associated with 28-day mortality in critically ill children. AKI and hypermagnesemia had a strong association. "A higher resolution version of the Graphical abstract is available as Supplementary information".

Central Venous Pressure Measurement Is Associated With Improved Outcomes in Patients With or at Risk for Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome: An Analysis of the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV Database

Background

Central venous pressure (CVP) monitoring is widely used in the intensive care unit (ICU). However, the formal utility of CVP measurement to altering patient outcomes among ICU patients with or at risk for acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) has never been investigated. Our study aimed to explore the association of CVP measurement with 28-day mortality specifically in that population.

Methods

This study was based on the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database. Patients were divided into CVP and no CVP groups according to whether they had CVP measurement within 24 h of admission to the ICU. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. Multivariate regression was used to elucidate the association between CVP measurement and 28-day mortality, and propensity score matching (PSM) and propensity score-based overlap weighting (OW) were employed to verify the stability of our results.

Results

A total of 10,198 patients with or at risk for ARDS were included in our study, of which 4,647 patients (45.6%) belonged to the CVP group. Multivariate logistic regression showed that the early measurement of CVP was independently associated with lower 28-day mortality (OR: 0.49; 95% CI: 0.42–0.57; p < 0.001). This association remained robust after PSM and OW (both p < 0.001). Patients in the CVP group had shorter ICU stay, lower in-hospital mortality, more fluid on day 1 and higher clearance of blood lactate than those in the no CVP group.

Conclusion

Early CVP measurement is associated with an improvement in 28-day mortality among a general population of critically ill patients with or at risk for ARDS.